Demystifying Prediction Markets Beyond Volume Charts
In today’s episode, we're unpacking what’s really driving prediction markets and how to think about them as information and distribution systems, not just gambling venues.
We discuss:
Polymarket vs Kalshi: onchain vs offchain tradeoffs
Distribution advantages and partnerships
Liquidity, market making, and arbitrage dynamics
Why volume alone is misleading
Sports betting vs long-duration markets
Fees, incentives, and wash trading concerns
U.S. regulation and launch implications
Prediction markets as news and truth-discovery tools
The long arc from Augur to today
And much more—enjoy!
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The skinny
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