Latest / The President's Daily Brief / October 22nd, 2026: Armed Rebels Are Taking the Fight to Iran's Government & Suspected Iranian Spies in Britain

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October 22nd, 2026: Armed Rebels Are Taking the Fight to Iran's Government & Suspected Iranian Spies in Britain · The President's Daily Brief

0:13
It's Thursday,
0:14
the 22nd of October.
0:16
Welcome to the President's Daily Brief.
0:18
I'm Mike Baker,
0:18
your eyes and ears
0:20
on the world stage.
0:21
All right,
0:22
let's get briefed.
0:24
First up,
0:24
Iran's regime faces a growing threat from within as armed opposition groups
0:30
escalate attacks against government security forces.
0:33
Later in the show,
0:34
British authorities re-arrest two men
0:36
suspected of assisting Iranian intelligence
0:39
with a terrorist plot targeting a UK air base used by American bombers.
0:45
Plus,
0:45
A major mystery possibly solved,
0:49
although not quite
0:50
regarding Ukraine.
0:51
New reporting reveals that
0:53
Elon Musk reportedly,
0:55
supposedly,
0:56
personally ordered the Starlink restrictions
0:58
that disrupted Ukrainian military operations
1:01
and that reportedly blindsided officials in Kiev
1:05
and Washington.
1:06
And in today's Back of the Brief,
1:08
Russia releases a 70 four-year-old American teacher imprisoned since 2022
1:13
as President Trump's envoy,
1:14
Steve Witkopf
1:16
praises Vladimir Putin as a quote,
1:18
humanitarian.
1:20
Seriously,
1:21
I,
1:21
I don't think that word means what Witkofff thinks it means.
1:25
But first,
1:25
today's PDB spotlight.
1:27
Iran's government is facing a growing threat from
1:30
within as armed opposition groups launch increasingly sophisticated attacks
1:35
against security forces in the country's southeast.
1:38
Police stations are coming under fire.
1:40
Military convoys are being ambushed,
1:42
and senior security officials are being targeted for assassination.
1:46
And all of this is happening as Tehran struggles with
1:49
the consequences of its war against the US and Israel,
1:52
an economy in crisis,
1:53
and apparent mounting public frustration and anger.
1:57
According to a new investigation from Fox News,
1:59
a coalition of armed opposition groups
2:02
has emerged as a significant security threat
2:05
in the predominantly Sunni southeastern provinces of Sistan and Baluchistan
2:10
and neighboring Kerman.
2:12
The coalition known as the People's Fighters Front.
2:15
Has claimed responsibility for at least 6
2:17
attacks against government forces in recent weeks.
2:20
On October 7th,
2:21
militants attacked a police headquarters in the city of Jalek using explosives,
2:25
rocket-propelled grenades,
2:26
and gunfire.
2:28
The following day,
2:29
additional attacks targeted a police patrol near
2:32
Nusratabad and an army convoy near Niksar,
2:35
killing two members of
2:37
Iran's security forces.
2:39
Earlier this month,
2:40
insurgents ambushed a three-vehicle police patrol,
2:43
killing 2 officers and wounding another.
2:45
And on October 14th,
2:47
a female commander in Iran's besieged paramilitary organization
2:51
was shot and killed outside her home.
2:53
A police officer was killed in a separate attack that same day,
2:57
and authorities have confirmed both killings,
2:59
although the identities of the attackers remain unclear.
3:02
According to the human rights activists news agency,
3:05
at least 63 armed incidents were recorded across southeastern Iran
3:10
between the 31st of March and the 10th of October.
3:14
Those confrontations left at least 94 people dead,
3:18
according to local and unofficial reporting.
3:20
That figure includes government security personnel,
3:23
militants,
3:23
and civilians.
3:25
And the pace of the violence is reportedly accelerating.
3:28
18 incidents occurred during the final 18 days of the reporting period.
3:33
That's more than in any previous full month.
3:36
Conflict monitoring organization ACLED also reports that
3:40
armed confrontations in Sistan and Baluchistan
3:43
have already reached their highest annual level in at least a decade.
3:47
And analysts at the Foundation for Defense of
3:49
Democracies have been closely tracking these developments.
3:52
FDD's Long War Journal documented 5 attacks claimed by the People's
3:57
Fighters Front during just the 1st 8 days of October,
4:00
including ambushes,
4:01
roadside bombings,
4:02
and assaults on government security installations.
4:06
FTD's reporting also details how militants have increasingly targeted
4:10
members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,
4:13
the IRGC,
4:14
and local police forces while attempting to
4:17
coordinate their operations across the region.
4:20
The People's Fighters Front was established in December of last year,
4:24
bringing together four armed Baluch organizations including Jaish al-Adl,
4:28
that's a Sunni Islamist militant group with a
4:30
long history of attacks against Iranian security forces.
4:34
The coalition claims that its objective is no longer
4:37
simply defending the interests of the Baluch minority.
4:40
Instead,
4:41
Its leaders are calling for the overthrow of Iran's clerical government
4:44
and presenting their campaign as part of a
4:47
broader struggle on behalf of the Iranian people.
4:50
But that message does come with complications.
4:53
Some of these organizations have histories of Islamist militancy,
4:57
and many Iranians remain
4:59
deeply suspicious of their intentions,
5:01
particularly concerns about religious extremism
5:04
and possible separatist ambitions.
5:07
The region itself has been a source of unrest for decades.
5:10
Sistan and Baluchistan borders Pakistan and Afghanistan and
5:14
is home to a large population of Sunni Muslims
5:16
in a country dominated by Shiite clerics.
5:20
Residents have long complained about religious discrimination,
5:23
economic neglect,
5:24
poverty,
5:24
and abuses committed by government security forces.
5:28
Those grievances have repeatedly produced demonstrations
5:31
and violent confrontations with Tehran.
5:34
But the current escalation is taking place
5:36
of course under very different circumstances.
5:39
Iran's military has suffered significant damage during
5:42
the war with the US and Israel.
5:43
Its economy
5:44
is under extraordinary pressure.
5:46
Inflation has surged,
5:48
and security forces are already stretched thin
5:51
by the need to maintain order across the country.
5:54
Now
5:55
the regime must devote additional personnel and resources
5:58
to confronting armed militants in its southeastern provinces.
6:02
There's also reporting that Iran has used personnel associated with the Femiyoun,
6:06
that's an Afghan Shiite militia
6:09
historically controlled by the Revolutionary Guard
6:12
in security operations in that region.
6:14
The extent of those deployments remains disputed.
6:17
Iranian authorities have previously accused Israel and
6:20
the US of supporting armed opposition groups,
6:23
but so far
6:24
investigators have not established whether the People's Fighters Front
6:28
is receiving outside financial,
6:29
military,
6:30
or intelligence assistance.
6:33
The militants remain concentrated in the southeast,
6:35
and there's little evidence that they
6:37
currently possess the military capabilities
6:40
needed to capture major cities or challenge Iran's armed forces,
6:44
but they don't necessarily have to.
6:47
An insurgency capable of repeatedly killing security personnel,
6:51
disrupting government operations,
6:52
and forcing the regime to divert military resources
6:56
can weaken Iran without ever controlling substantial territory.
7:00
And the danger for Iran's leadership
7:02
is that the fighting could intensify
7:04
just as the country faces another round
7:06
of American and Israeli military operations.
7:10
For years,
7:11
Tehran has invested enormous resources supporting militant
7:15
organizations and proxies throughout the Middle East,
7:17
using them to threaten and destabilize adversaries
7:21
far beyond Iran's borders.
7:23
Now,
7:24
well,
7:25
now the Iranian government
7:26
is confronting an increasingly organized armed challenge
7:30
inside its own borders.
7:32
All right.
7:33
Coming up next,
7:34
British police re-arrest two men suspected of helping Iranian intelligence
7:38
with a plot targeting an air base used by American bombers to strike Iran.
7:43
And a new reporting indicates that
7:45
Elon Musk supposedly personally ordered the Starlink restrictions
7:50
that disrupted Ukrainian military operations,
7:53
and I'll be right back.
7:56
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Welcome back to the PDB.
9:09
The investigation outside RAF Fairford has taken another turn,
9:14
and the suspected connection to Tehran
9:16
is coming further into focus.
9:18
Two men previously released on bail are back in British custody
9:22
on suspicion of assisting Iranian intelligence,
9:24
potentially
9:25
in a plot against the base.
9:27
RAF Fairford in southwestern England
9:29
had been used by American B-1 bombers to carry out strikes against Iran.
9:34
Now one of the suspects arrested or re-arrested
9:37
is a 24-year-old British national who was initially arrested outside Fairford.
9:42
The other is a 25-year-old British-Iranian dual national
9:46
previously arrested in London.
9:48
Both were re-arrested on Tuesday.
9:51
The investigation began in the early hours of September 27th
9:55
when police detained five British men outside the air base.
9:59
Two more arrests followed.
10:00
Eventually all seven were released on bail.
10:03
The American B-1 bombers left Fairford shortly after those first arrests.
10:08
Now figures close to the investigation have previously indicated
10:11
that police were examining a possible attempted Iranian proxy attack,
10:16
potentially
10:16
involving people who didn't know who was ultimately directing them.
10:20
Officers reported finding no explosives in the
10:23
vans near Fairford during the initial arrest.
10:26
They did,
10:26
however,
10:27
find what they described as quote a quantity of petrol.
10:30
Now what that gas was intended for
10:33
authorities still haven't publicly explained,
10:35
nor have they laid out precisely
10:37
what actions the suspects allegedly planned.
10:40
The 5 men detained outside the base
10:42
were initially arrested under the Explosives Act,
10:44
and all 7 were charged under the Terrorism Act.
10:48
Now the 2 re-arrests fall under the National Security Act,
10:51
with police explicitly investigating
10:54
suspected assistance to Iranian intelligence.
10:57
As for who may have been behind the suspected activity,
11:01
Britain's counterterrorism policing chief,
11:03
Assistant Commissioner Lawrence Taylor,
11:05
who is not the same Lawrence Taylor,
11:07
who was one of the New York Giants' greatest players ever,
11:09
said,
11:10
quote,
11:10
This is very much a live investigation,
11:13
and our evidence gathering continues.
11:15
We consider it highly likely that there is Iranian state involvement,
11:19
end quote.
11:20
British Prime Minister Andy Burnham had already
11:22
described Iranian involvement as quote highly likely.
11:25
And that brings us back to the warning from MI5 last week.
11:28
The agency's Director General,
11:30
Sir Ken McCallum
11:31
said its Iran-linked operations had led to more than 50
11:34
arrests in the United Kingdom over the previous year.
11:37
He also described a major shift toward Tehran threatening British military sites.
11:43
The Iranian regime,
11:44
of course,
11:45
has consistently denied responsibility for suspected operations in the UK.
11:50
But those denials have not changed the assessment that Taylor laid out on Tuesday.
11:54
British counterterrorism police still consider Iranian state involvement
11:58
highly likely.
11:59
Taylor acknowledged that the public
12:01
still doesn't have the full picture,
12:02
saying,
12:03
quote,
12:03
We know the public have unanswered questions.
12:06
I wanna be as transparent as possible,
12:08
and when we are in the position to share more,
12:11
we will,
12:11
end quote.
12:13
He also cautioned that national security investigations
12:16
take time to progress.
12:18
The other 5 men,
12:19
well,
12:19
they remain out on bail.
12:21
All right,
12:22
turning now to Ukraine,
12:24
where an unexpected disruption to
12:26
a critical American military communication system
12:28
has triggered questions at the highest levels of government.
12:31
When Ukraine's military Starlink service was restricted last week,
12:35
Kiev wanted to know,
12:36
well,
12:37
who was responsible.
12:38
Now the Wall Street Journal reports that
12:40
Elon Musk reportedly,
12:43
supposedly personally ordered
12:44
the throttling
12:45
that left Ukrainian attack drones and air
12:47
defense interceptors without their key communications support,
12:51
or at least
12:52
the most effective version of that key communications support.
12:56
In an exclusive report,
12:57
the Journal identifies Musk as the person who directed the restrictions.
13:02
Now,
13:03
if you think it odd that Musk would independently make that
13:06
decision without consulting the White House and or the Pentagon,
13:10
well,
13:10
you'd be correct.
13:11
The question is,
13:13
did he consult the Trump administration before making that call?
13:17
And that's where the accounts differ.
13:19
First,
13:20
let's walk through what changed for Ukrainian forces.
13:22
On the 14th of October,
13:24
a cap on the speeds at which Ukrainian equipment could stay connected
13:28
to the satellite network's military grade service were put in place.
13:32
That's according to US officials and people familiar
13:35
with the matter who spoke to the journal,
13:37
as I've discussed here on the PDB.
13:39
Ukrainian forces rely on Starlink both to strike Russian positions
13:43
and to intercept incoming attacks.
13:45
The restrictions affected drones carrying out both missions.
13:49
A military analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
13:54
explained the problem this way,
13:55
quote,
13:56
Ukrainian forces continue to be throttled in their
13:58
ability to employ strike drones and interceptor drones
14:02
to 99
14:03
MPH.
14:04
The current connection is below 80
14:06
MPH.
14:07
Ukrainian officials told the journal that the restrictions
14:10
let Russian missiles slip past their defenses.
14:13
The report doesn't establish how many attacks were affected.
14:16
Or whether a lost connection was the
14:18
decisive factor in any particular interception failure
14:21
or resulting casualties.
14:23
But Zelensky's warning was blunt.
14:25
Ukrainians could die if unrestricted service wasn't restored.
14:29
Those public complaints reached a White House that was,
14:32
according to the White House anyway,
14:34
also trying to figure out what had happened.
14:36
The Journal reports widespread confusion inside the Trump administration,
14:40
I mean,
14:41
about this issue,
14:41
not just in general,
14:43
followed by an informal investigation into who had ordered the slowdown.
14:47
So
14:48
what had Musk discussed with the president?
14:51
Two people familiar with the matter told the Journal that
14:54
Musk and Trump spoke by phone about the Starlink decision
14:57
after the slowdown became public
14:59
while Trump was campaigning last week.
15:02
One of those people said they had also discussed the issue
15:05
before the restrictions took effect.
15:08
Now some US officials,
15:10
they told the Journal that Musk acted unilaterally
15:12
on his own and that the president did not
15:15
specifically order
15:16
any retaliation against Ukraine.
15:19
That's parsing some words.
15:20
Musk meanwhile was pointing toward Washington.
15:23
Hours after the slowdown became public.
15:24
He wrote on X,
15:25
quote,
15:26
Any limits on speed or usage are decided by the US military and ultimately
15:31
the president.
15:33
But that was not the account coming from the president.
15:36
Trump told reporters
15:37
he didn't know who was responsible,
15:39
quote,
15:39
But I would like to find out,
15:41
end quote.
15:42
Ah,
15:43
if only he could find out.
15:44
He's like OJ.
15:45
He just wants to get to the bottom of who done it.
15:47
On Wednesday,
15:48
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the administration had made no request
15:52
to throttle Starlink.
15:54
So the journal identifies Musk as the
15:56
person who supposedly gave the directive without
15:59
clearing up the question of did he or didn't he consult with the White House.
16:03
Both Musk and Trump have criticized Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries,
16:07
leading the officials who spoke with the
16:09
Journal to suspect the restrictions were retaliation.
16:13
Trump has been pressing to lower American
16:15
diesel prices ahead of November's midterm elections,
16:18
and he blames Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries
16:21
for contributing to elevated prices.
16:23
Officials in Kiev say,
16:25
well,
16:25
they say they're just trying to get the full picture still.
16:28
Ukraine's top diplomat in Washington said Kiev
16:30
was quote waiting for the official response
16:32
from contacts with the Pentagon and SpaceX
16:34
at the leaders' level to understand what has happened
16:37
and whether the connection has been restored or will be restored,
16:41
end quote.
16:42
The administration meanwhile was drawing
16:44
a distinction between American military assistance
16:46
and decisions made by the company providing the service.
16:49
Of course there would just be no connection there.
16:52
Secretary of Defense Pete Exeth said,
16:53
quote,
16:54
We haven't pulled anything back,
16:56
end quote.
16:57
Still,
16:58
given the incredibly complex and deep liaison,
17:01
intelligence sharing,
17:02
and military relationships that exist between the US and Ukraine.
17:07
One could be forgiven for thinking that it's unlikely that a private citizen,
17:12
in this case Musk,
17:13
would decide on his own to restrict the most
17:16
important communication system used by the Ukrainian military.
17:19
The phrase plausible deniability does come to mind.
17:24
All right,
17:24
coming up at the back of the brief,
17:25
Vladimir Putin
17:27
frees an imprisoned American as Trump's envoy
17:30
arrives in Russia for peace negotiations.
17:33
More on that
17:34
when we come back.
17:36
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In today's back of the brief,
20:26
Russia has released a 74-year-old American teacher
20:29
who spent more than 4 years in a Russian prison
20:32
following a personal appeal from President Trump to Vladimir Putin.
20:36
The release of Stephen Hubbard came Wednesday as Trump's special envoy,
20:39
Steve Witkoff
20:41
met with Putin in Saint Petersburg for another round of negotiations
20:45
aimed at ending Putin's war in Ukraine.
20:47
Witkoff praised Putin
20:49
following the release of Hubbard,
20:51
calling Putin a humanitarian.
20:54
Witkoff actually appeared to be serious
20:56
as the rest of the room erupted into laughter.
20:59
OK,
20:59
that's not true.
21:00
Nobody burst out laughing.
21:02
You,
21:02
you,
21:02
you don't want to upset a humanitarian like Putin.
21:05
You don't know what could happen.
21:07
Hubbard,
21:08
a retired schoolteacher from Michigan,
21:10
had been living in Ukraine since 2014.
21:12
He was captured by Russian forces in the eastern city of Izm
21:15
in April of 2022,
21:18
shortly after the humanitarian Putin
21:20
launched his full-scale invasion.
21:22
Russian authorities accused Hubbard of joining a Ukrainian
21:25
territorial defense unit in fighting against Russian troops.
21:29
Hubbard denied the allegations,
21:31
and his family
21:32
described him as a pacifist who had never taken up arms.
21:35
Nevertheless,
21:36
a Russian court convicted him of mercenary activity in October of 2024,
21:41
sentencing him to 6 years and 10 months in prison.
21:44
The US government
21:45
subsequently designated him as wrongfully detained.
21:49
Now,
21:49
after more than 4 years in Russian custody,
21:52
Hubbard is returning home.
21:53
President Trump says he personally requested
21:55
the release during discussions with Putin,
21:58
and that Washington made no concessions in exchange,
22:00
noting that there was no prisoner swap.
22:03
The White House is presenting the release as a diplomatic success
22:07
rather than Putin playing his cards smartly
22:09
as Washington continues to cozy up to the Kremlin.
22:13
Now the announcement comes as Washington and Moscow
22:16
are discussing another round of peace negotiations.
22:18
According to some reports,
22:20
there's an outside chance that potential talks,
22:22
possibly planned for November,
22:24
could also possibly directly involve Ukraine.
22:28
As for what's happening on the battlefield with Putin,
22:30
the humanitarians invasion,
22:32
according to Ukrainian authorities,
22:34
Russian attacks killed at least 9 people and wounded
22:36
another 45 across the country over the past day.
22:40
As Moscow continued targeting cities and energy infrastructure
22:43
with the stated goal of driving urban populations out of the cities
22:47
as winter approaches,
22:49
and on Monday a Russian drone struck a public park in the Kharkiv region,
22:53
killing 6 civilians,
22:54
including 2 young girls.
22:56
One of the victims was 14 months old.
22:59
Another 15 people were wounded,
23:01
including 7 children.
23:03
Perhaps
23:04
US envoy Steve Witkoff
23:06
could choose his words and direct his praise more judiciously.
23:11
Putin's release of Hubbard,
23:12
as welcome as it is,
23:14
was a strategic,
23:15
self-serving act designed to further influence the White House
23:19
into accepting Russian positions and demands
23:21
for ending their war against Ukraine.
23:24
As you would expect from a long-time KGB officer,
23:28
he's effectively reading the room
23:29
and acting accordingly.
23:32
And that my friends is the president's daily brief for Thursday,
23:35
the 22nd of October.
23:36
Now if you have any questions or comments,
23:38
please
23:38
reach out to me at PDB@hefirstv.com.
23:43
I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin.
23:47
Until then,
23:48
stay informed,
23:49
stay safe,
23:51
stay cool.