Transcript

Passer Rating · NFL explained.

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Speaker 1: and five G content optimization. We're all about the numbers today.
1:08
Speaker 1: Analytics have become one of the hot trends in sports.
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Speaker 1: The NBA, of course, uses that metric called per player
1:14
Speaker 1: efficiency rating as an all encompassing way to measure a
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Speaker 1: player's contributions on the floor. Soccer is a game with
1:20
Speaker 1: just seventeen rules, but they even have their own complex
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Speaker 1: metrics like expected goals. There's baseball, which has war wins
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Speaker 1: above replacement. They introduced that back in the seventies and
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Speaker 1: early eighties. But what about the O G metric? And
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Speaker 1: I'm not talking about anything Ice Tea has done in
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Speaker 1: his career, the one that was adopted in nineteen seventy
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Speaker 1: three and is still mentioned every single Sunday during NFL broadcast.
1:42
Speaker 1: What's going on everyone, I'm like yam and as always
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Speaker 1: joined by a d D. Kinka wala. Today a d D.
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Speaker 1: We get to dive into a stat that has stood
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Speaker 1: the test of time, passer rating. What is good A
1:54
Speaker 1: D D? Well? I feel like this is a really
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Speaker 1: good one because people throw around passer rating, Mike, But
2:00
Speaker 1: does everybody really know what passer rating is, or how
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Speaker 1: it's calculated or what it even really tells us? And
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Speaker 1: even though I tell you I try to avoid math,
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Speaker 1: I feel like this is math that kind of is
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Speaker 1: really important. Yes, agree, maybe sort of? Yeah, I'm with you,
2:18
Speaker 1: I'm with you, Okay, Gosh, that just sort of hung
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Speaker 1: there for a little while right there. All right, well,
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Speaker 1: let's start with history, since you know, as a history major,
2:27
Speaker 1: that's my favorite topic to hit. In nineteen seventy three,
2:32
Speaker 1: it was the Hall of Fames Don Smith who headed
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Speaker 1: up an eight man committee that was also comprised of
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Speaker 1: the Elias Sports Bureau, Seymour see Off, and Don Weiss,
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Speaker 1: who at the time was the NFL SPR Director, And
2:44
Speaker 1: they got together to try to create a way to
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Speaker 1: great quarterback performance and it was designed to be independent
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Speaker 1: of other metrics in terms of how quarterbacks performed. Now, Mike,
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Speaker 1: the committee actually started trying to come up with a
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Speaker 1: standardized metric for quarterbacks way back in nineteen sixty, but
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Speaker 1: it was real leave following the merger in nineteen seventy
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Speaker 1: that then Commissioner Pete Rosel said, we just have to
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Speaker 1: find a better way to analyze the performance of quarterbacks.
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Speaker 1: And you know what, the NFL had spent a lot
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Speaker 1: of time finding ways to crowd a passing champion in
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Speaker 1: the league. In the mid nineteen thirties, it was just
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Speaker 1: the quarterback with the most passing yards. Then for a
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Speaker 1: short while it was only using completion percentage. Then in
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Speaker 1: the nineteen forties, they tried to come up with some
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Speaker 1: sort of a ranking system that included where players finished
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Speaker 1: the year in completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions, and stayed
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Speaker 1: with some sort of measure of that ranking system until
3:46
Speaker 1: ninety three when we finally got the passer rating. You know, indeed,
3:50
Speaker 1: it actually makes sense that they would use those categories completions, yards, touchdowns, interceptions.
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Speaker 1: Those are sort of the fundamental things that I think
3:58
Speaker 1: most fans always point to. But as we're getting more data,
4:01
Speaker 1: things have evolved a little bit, and like you mentioned
4:03
Speaker 1: a little bit earlier, I don't think anyone on Earth
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Speaker 1: could recite the formula unless they are a true mathematician.
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Speaker 1: It's hard to digest. In fact, prominent agent Lee Steinberg
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Speaker 1: actually said back in two thousand one, other than one
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Speaker 1: attorney in our office, I am unaware of a single
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Speaker 1: human being who has the capacity to figure out a
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Speaker 1: quarterback rating. I couldn't agree more with that. So we
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Speaker 1: do know there's one person on the planet, and probably
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Speaker 1: the person who invented it, So two people on the
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Speaker 1: planet that can give you the full skinny on passer raining.
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Speaker 1: But trust me when I tell you just have to
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Speaker 1: look it up. If you want to see the actual calculation,
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Speaker 1: and even that, go and figure it out. It's fractions
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Speaker 1: on top of fractions, multiplied by fractions. Trust me, I
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Speaker 1: don't want to touch any of this when it comes
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Speaker 1: to the mathematical formula. But the one thing that you
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Speaker 1: do need to know the five key elements of quarterback
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Speaker 1: performance that are used here. And this is more my wheelhouse, right,
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Speaker 1: we'll just talk what we see on the football field completions,
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Speaker 1: passing yards, passing attempts, passing touchdowns, and interceptions. And since
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Speaker 1: the formula is truly something I would need to break down,
5:04
Speaker 1: break out that old t I D three calculator. Did
5:06
Speaker 1: you have one of those? By the way? Five? Okay,
5:10
Speaker 1: yeah I was. Did you play video games on it?
5:12
Speaker 1: There's one game that we played which I won't mentioned
5:14
Speaker 1: because it's kind of a family show. If you know,
5:16
Speaker 1: you know, um a D two, nice person, you weren't
5:19
Speaker 1: playing in that game. All right. So let's take a
5:21
Speaker 1: look at what a good rating is and what's a
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Speaker 1: bad rating, and what's a perfect rating and how we
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Speaker 1: actually get there. The committee they crunched the data from
5:29
Speaker 1: nineteen sixty to nineteen seventy two and determined that the
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Speaker 1: average pastor did the following completed fifty percent of their passes,
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Speaker 1: through five touchdowns every one hundred passes, through eleven interceptions
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Speaker 1: every two hundred passes, and through for seven yards per tempt.
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Speaker 1: Those four marks actually made to be the average in
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Speaker 1: the passer rating formulas. So an average market all four categories.
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Speaker 1: And you don't need the t I A D three
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Speaker 1: calculator for this, I'm just gonna tell you is a
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Speaker 1: sixty six point seven passer rating. You're sticking with me
6:01
Speaker 1: here not just hit the back fifteen seconds and trust me,
6:04
Speaker 1: I'll I said a pretty slow So with passing obviously
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Speaker 1: becoming more efficient and just more prominent part of the
6:10
Speaker 1: game overall a DT, we've seen a real increase in
6:13
Speaker 1: passer rating since the numbers and and really in the
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Speaker 1: numbers since its inception. So the average passer rating by
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Speaker 1: season I'm going to take you back to nineteen seventy
6:22
Speaker 1: three was sixty four point nine. It increased in nineteen
6:25
Speaker 1: eighty to seventy three point seven, in seventy seven point three.
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Speaker 1: I could take you through the trends, but just know
6:32
Speaker 1: this in point six, so there has been a straight
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Speaker 1: arrow up for the most part in terms of passer
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Speaker 1: rating a d D okay, But Mike, what about the
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Speaker 1: elusive perfect passer rating and of course the dreaded zero
6:46
Speaker 1: passer rating. I witnessed that to actually, So how exactly
6:51
Speaker 1: can a quarterback end up in each of those sparts.
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Speaker 1: Let's start with the positive, with the perfect rating, that,
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Speaker 1: of course is one hundred and fifty eight point three.
7:00
Speaker 1: Let's remember that number because when people talk about passer rating,
7:03
Speaker 1: it doesn't really carry any relevance unless you know what
7:06
Speaker 1: the scale is. And the scale is again, the perfect
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Speaker 1: rating is one fifty eight point three. So to get there,
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Speaker 1: you need to have the following. A completion percentage of
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Speaker 1: at least seventy seven point five per cent. Your touchdowns
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Speaker 1: per pass attempt needs to be at least eleven point
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Speaker 1: nine percent. That's basically a touchdown every ten or so throws.
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Speaker 1: Your yards per attempt should be at least twelve point five,
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Speaker 1: and your interception rate has to be a big fat zero.
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Speaker 1: So one more time, Mike, I'll say it quickly. Completion
7:44
Speaker 1: percentage at least seventy seven and a half touchdowns. You've
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Speaker 1: got to throw one about every ten pass attempts or
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Speaker 1: so your yards, you've got to be more than twelve
7:53
Speaker 1: yards per attempt, and you cannot throw an interception to
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Speaker 1: get that perfect one fifty eight point three. As for
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Speaker 1: the zero, well, you know, got a complete less than
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Speaker 1: thirty percent of your passes, you can't have a single
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Speaker 1: touch down, your yards per attempt or probably three yards
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Speaker 1: per pass or lower, and you throw a pick basically
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Speaker 1: every ten attempts. The last zero passer rating game was, unfortunately,
8:21
Speaker 1: Bengals quarterback Brandon Allen. He of course filled in last
8:25
Speaker 1: year after Joe Burrow got hurt and against the Ravens
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Speaker 1: he went six for twenty one for forty eight yards
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Speaker 1: and two interceptions. Now, the last perfect passer rating was
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Speaker 1: Mike No surprise, no surprise. You want to guess who
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Speaker 1: it was? Uh? Yeah, that guy that's retiring in about
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Speaker 1: twenty years, Tom Brady. Yes, it was indeed, the goat
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Speaker 1: Tom Brady, who in twenty twenty went twenty two for
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Speaker 1: twenty seven for three hundred and forty eight yards and
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Speaker 1: four touchdowns against I'll give you one guest, guess the team,
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Speaker 1: uh ding ding ding. Good job, Mike. We're trying, we're trying.
9:05
Speaker 1: I will admit to you I didn't really know what
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Speaker 1: a perfect passer raining actually encompassed until we started doing
9:11
Speaker 1: the research for for the show. I mean, even as
9:13
Speaker 1: you were going through it, I was like, oh, okay,
9:15
Speaker 1: because like even the completion percentage number says, I've heard
9:17
Speaker 1: it thrown out there before, and sometimes I see a
9:19
Speaker 1: line that's so darn good and it's not a perfect
9:22
Speaker 1: passer rating. And now I understand why that that's the case,
9:25
Speaker 1: because there's been some epic performances and it's still not
9:27
Speaker 1: a perfect passer raining. Well to some degree, it's sort
9:29
Speaker 1: of like on base percentage, right, we just accept it
9:32
Speaker 1: for what it is, and we don't necessarily think about
9:34
Speaker 1: every single metric that goes into it, no doubt. But
9:36
Speaker 1: in any case, Mike, we've got a lot more historical
9:39
Speaker 1: facts and figures when it comes to passer rating. We
9:42
Speaker 1: can find out what some quarterbacks think of the metric,
9:45
Speaker 1: and of course we have to talk about whether we
9:47
Speaker 1: really think it's an effective measurement when we come back.
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Speaker 1: Learn more at www dot up work dot com. Welcome
11:21
Speaker 1: back to NFL, explained Mike Yam and A D. D.
11:22
Speaker 1: Kinka Walla with you, and of course we love answering
11:26
Speaker 1: some of your questions. You can find us on social
11:27
Speaker 1: media at a King Kabla at Mike Underscore. Yeah, and
11:31
Speaker 1: keep firing them off because we had we got some
11:33
Speaker 1: good questions. D D and I continue to track them.
11:36
Speaker 1: But today's episode is all about quarterback passer raining and
11:40
Speaker 1: before the break, we actually gave you the latest or
11:43
Speaker 1: the last quarterback to have that perfect rating and the
11:45
Speaker 1: zero ratings. So let's take a look at some of
11:47
Speaker 1: the historical stats behind the actual metrics. So using the
11:51
Speaker 1: requirement of at least tem passing attempts, there have been
11:54
Speaker 1: seventy two perfect passer rating games since nineteen considering all
11:59
Speaker 1: the games, it's not a big number. So the players
12:01
Speaker 1: with the most perfect passer ratings in NFL history. A
12:04
Speaker 1: DD there's one that you, oh, fairly well, that's in
12:07
Speaker 1: the mix. You want to do a little name dropping here, Well,
12:09
Speaker 1: you know, and he's just bitted you. And it's really
12:12
Speaker 1: sort of sad because this past year was nothing like
12:14
Speaker 1: when he was in his heyday for sure. But Ben
12:16
Speaker 1: Roethlisberger and the also retired and Hall of Fame quarterback
12:21
Speaker 1: Peyton Manning both had four games with perfect passer ratings. Yeah,
12:25
Speaker 1: and of course Tom Brady is on that list, and
12:28
Speaker 1: a guy that joined us a couple episodes ago, and
12:30
Speaker 1: Kurt Warner, who I know you spent some time with
12:32
Speaker 1: recently towards the end of the NFL season. So you
12:35
Speaker 1: guys doing some hits on NFL Network. So Brady and Warner,
12:38
Speaker 1: both of those guys posted three Phil Simms, the highest
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Speaker 1: passer rating ever in a Super Bowl, one fifty point nine.
12:44
Speaker 1: That was in Super Bowl twenty one against the Broncos.
12:48
Speaker 1: Sam's by the way, and this gives you some context
12:50
Speaker 1: on some of these numbers. To get to that one
12:51
Speaker 1: fifty point nine passer rating, he was twenty two or
12:55
Speaker 1: twenty five for two hundred and sixty eight yards three touchdowns.
12:58
Speaker 1: That final score was thirty twenty in that win over Denver.
13:02
Speaker 1: Atlanta's Bobby Aber actually holds the distinction for the record
13:06
Speaker 1: of having the most passing attempts in which he also
13:09
Speaker 1: had a perfect passer rating a d D and lost,
13:11
Speaker 1: which is just kind of a massive buzz kill. But
13:14
Speaker 1: only four quarterbacks have posted a perfect passer rating in
13:17
Speaker 1: a playoff game. One of those guys you just named
13:19
Speaker 1: dropped before, and Peyton Manning in two thousand three in
13:22
Speaker 1: a wild card game. Dave Craig in three that was
13:24
Speaker 1: also a wild card game. Terry Bradshaw always entertaining us,
13:28
Speaker 1: not only on Fox but also all those commercials that
13:31
Speaker 1: he does. He did in seventy six in a divisional
13:33
Speaker 1: game against the Colts, Dandy Don Meredith back in nineteen
13:37
Speaker 1: sixty seven a d D also in a divisional game.
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Speaker 1: Well now and extremely recently, Mike. It wasn't perfect, but
13:44
Speaker 1: it was pretty darn closed. Josh Allen and the Buffalo
13:46
Speaker 1: Bills absolutely towards the Patriots in the first round of
13:50
Speaker 1: the playoffs this year, and Allen's rating was a one
13:53
Speaker 1: fifty seven point six. He went on eight pass yards,
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Speaker 1: five passing touchdowns, no interceptions, and his team scored seven
14:04
Speaker 1: touchdowns on seven possessions. Now, it's not a perfect passer rating,
14:09
Speaker 1: We'll get into that a little bit later, but it
14:11
Speaker 1: was the second highest playoff passer rating since nineteen fifty.
14:15
Speaker 1: Can you imagine putting out those numbers and it's not
14:17
Speaker 1: a perfect pastor like, that's just kind of insane to me. Yeah,
14:20
Speaker 1: But if you know Josh Allen, like I know Josh Allen,
14:23
Speaker 1: all he cared about was the dub. Oh Yeah, although
14:25
Speaker 1: that one touchdown the back of the end somewhere you're
14:27
Speaker 1: actually trying to throw it away that At that point,
14:29
Speaker 1: I'm like, yo, this is going to great. When he's like,
14:32
Speaker 1: I wasn't even trying to do that, that's when you
14:35
Speaker 1: know you're having as close to a perfect day as
14:37
Speaker 1: you can when you think you're throwing the ball away
14:39
Speaker 1: and it turns into a touchdown. And indeed, we have
14:42
Speaker 1: to mention that Alan actually followed that up this past
14:45
Speaker 1: weekend by posting the highest passer rating ever in a
14:48
Speaker 1: playoff loss. It was one of the wildest games in
14:50
Speaker 1: NFL history of forty two thirty six defeat to Patrick
14:54
Speaker 1: Mahomes and the Chiefs. Allen's passer rating was one thirty six.
14:57
Speaker 1: Mahomes threw up a point one. Allen basically it felt
15:01
Speaker 1: like he was perfect most of the playoffs, but proves
15:03
Speaker 1: in the pudding. I guess add that doesn't know is
15:05
Speaker 1: matter well, because this goes back to one of our
15:09
Speaker 1: previous episodes, Mike, teams need defenses, and defense wins championships,
15:15
Speaker 1: and if you can't stop the other team with thirteen
15:18
Speaker 1: seconds left, then you probably don't have a good chance
15:21
Speaker 1: to win a championship. No, I'm with you there, but
15:24
Speaker 1: look so not perfection but almost there. But look, we
15:27
Speaker 1: did drop some guys that did have that perfect passer rating.
15:30
Speaker 1: There's also the history of the zero passer rating, um
15:34
Speaker 1: which is just yeah, I know, but he looked Terry's
15:38
Speaker 1: on like the good side of this. He's also on
15:40
Speaker 1: the bad side of this, which just means, you know,
15:42
Speaker 1: you got a little some ups and downs. But he
15:43
Speaker 1: obviously had success and he has a Hall of Famer,
15:46
Speaker 1: so he's he can hang his hat on that he
15:48
Speaker 1: has the most zero passer rating games with three, which
15:53
Speaker 1: kind of thinks. You know, this zero talk is really
15:55
Speaker 1: getting depressing, especially since um, I did actually have to
15:59
Speaker 1: watch some shoddy quarterback play this year. So let's switch
16:02
Speaker 1: to the guys who are at the top of the
16:05
Speaker 1: areas passer rating categories that work. Yeah, let's roll. Let's
16:09
Speaker 1: keep it positive. Alright here, it's quiz time. It's quiz time.
16:14
Speaker 1: Highest paths are rating in history for a career as
16:19
Speaker 1: of the end of the one regular season. What do
16:22
Speaker 1: you think I actually know this one? I saw this
16:25
Speaker 1: during a game broadcast, So I'll throw in Patrick Mahomes. Oh, well,
16:29
Speaker 1: you are correct, and that is because currently his career
16:32
Speaker 1: pass a rating stands at one oh six point zero.
16:36
Speaker 1: He's followed closely by Deshaun Watson, who has a one
16:38
Speaker 1: oh four point five, and then, of course future Hall
16:41
Speaker 1: of Famer Aaron Rodgers and presumptive m v P whose
16:45
Speaker 1: all time career passer rating is one oh four point four.
16:49
Speaker 1: Now it's not surprising, actually, Mike that Rogers has the
16:53
Speaker 1: top two passer rating seasons of all time. Number one
16:57
Speaker 1: was eleven, the year after he beat Ben Roethlisberger and
17:01
Speaker 1: the Steelers in the Super Bowl. He posted an absolutely
17:04
Speaker 1: absurd one twenty two point five. And then he came
17:08
Speaker 1: awfully close to that Mike in when he put up
17:11
Speaker 1: a one twenty one point five and he did win
17:14
Speaker 1: the m v P that year. Now, the highest passer
17:17
Speaker 1: rating by a rookie. This is also somebody who's playing
17:19
Speaker 1: right now. In our generation. You want to give it
17:21
Speaker 1: a guess, let's go a little Cowboys love for Dak.
17:24
Speaker 1: You know what, I feel like, you're cheating. You're getting
17:26
Speaker 1: too many of these answers. Correct. It was indeed Dak
17:30
Speaker 1: Prescott in sixteen who had a one oh four point nine.
17:34
Speaker 1: But let's not forget about a young man who I
17:37
Speaker 1: covered all through his rookie year, and that of course,
17:40
Speaker 1: is Robert Griffin the third who in two thousand twelve
17:43
Speaker 1: with the Washington football team under Mike Shanahan, posted a
17:46
Speaker 1: one oh two point four. And here's a little random
17:49
Speaker 1: known fact r G threes quarterbacks coach at that time
17:54
Speaker 1: in two thousand twelve was Matt Lafleur, who is now
17:57
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers head coach in Green Bay, who was also
18:01
Speaker 1: part of our record episode. And if you missed the
18:03
Speaker 1: record that he had said, I highly encourage to go
18:06
Speaker 1: back and check out that edition of NFL explained good
18:08
Speaker 1: tease right there, Try and try, okay, highest cumulative team
18:12
Speaker 1: passer ratings since nineteen seventy three, So since nineteen seventy three,
18:17
Speaker 1: since we started collating, collecting calculating passer rating, the team
18:23
Speaker 1: that has the highest passer rating. This one's gonna shock
18:27
Speaker 1: you is the Texans within eighty six point one? Yeah right,
18:34
Speaker 1: I mean, followed by NFL Royalty. That doesn't wouldn't really
18:36
Speaker 1: surprise you, right, The fort are right behind them five
18:39
Speaker 1: point oh, the Cowboys, the Packers, and then the Vikings. Wow,
18:44
Speaker 1: Minnesota almost even surprises me a little bit. I was thinking, Hey,
18:47
Speaker 1: consistency at the quarterback spot when you have real dudes there, right,
18:50
Speaker 1: So the Niners come to mind, Packers certainly come to mind,
18:55
Speaker 1: followed by Aaron Rodgers of course. Yeah, I think about
18:58
Speaker 1: Montana and Steve You like the whole deal. So yeah,
19:01
Speaker 1: can you get that has the worst team passer ratings
19:03
Speaker 1: since ninety three? Worst? Uh you know what, I'm going
19:08
Speaker 1: to guess Detroit again, let's right division, wrong team? It
19:13
Speaker 1: is the Chicago Bears. Think about a Kyle Orton, Rex Grossman,
19:18
Speaker 1: who I need to tell you though, Rex Grossman is
19:20
Speaker 1: one of the nicest humans on the planet, really really
19:23
Speaker 1: nice guy, sexy rexy anyway, Uh, Bob Avellini who frustrated
19:28
Speaker 1: the Chicago Faithful. He had a fifty four point eight rating.
19:33
Speaker 1: But I'll tell you this, I really do believe in
19:35
Speaker 1: Justin Fields and uh. I know that the Bears are
19:38
Speaker 1: changing the way that they're doing things in their front
19:40
Speaker 1: office and searching for a new coaching staff and all that,
19:43
Speaker 1: and I believe they're going to put someone in place
19:45
Speaker 1: who's going to take the best possible advantage of justin fields,
19:49
Speaker 1: and that number will rise. There's my prediction for the day.
19:52
Speaker 1: I can't drop a nugs um and athletically kind of
19:55
Speaker 1: a freak, which also leads me to think about maybe
19:57
Speaker 1: some changes a little bit later that we can discuss
19:59
Speaker 1: with passer rating that I think need to be included
20:01
Speaker 1: in the co And I think that that's really fair, Mike,
20:03
Speaker 1: because people inherently question and passer rating. I mean, first,
20:07
Speaker 1: the only stats that seem to matter in passer rating
20:10
Speaker 1: are again the completions, the yards, the attempts, the touchdowns,
20:14
Speaker 1: and the interceptions. So sometimes you get a little bit
20:17
Speaker 1: of a weird rating. Okay, Like let's say you've got
20:21
Speaker 1: quarterback A and let's call him, I don't know, Pat
20:25
Speaker 1: Liner maybe goes for three hundred yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions.
20:31
Speaker 1: But then you've got quarterback because you know, I don't know,
20:34
Speaker 1: Jim Tebow maybe goes thirty for forty for just fifty
20:38
Speaker 1: yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions. Well, this Jim
20:41
Speaker 1: Tebow guy would have the better passerrating despite throwing for
20:45
Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty fewer yards. How does that make sense?
20:49
Speaker 1: Mike Um, it doesn't, which leads me to think that
20:52
Speaker 1: there's actually a flaw in the metric. And once again
20:56
Speaker 1: it's the evolution of that position and why it's significant.
21:00
Speaker 1: So despite all of that, when you look at the
21:02
Speaker 1: things that matter most, which is the ws the winds right,
21:05
Speaker 1: there is a strong correlation between the team with the
21:08
Speaker 1: higher passer rating and getting that victory. This podcast is
21:15
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Speaker 1: the mission critical technology systems that the world depends on
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Speaker 1: every day. Working side by side with their customers, they
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Speaker 1: imagine things differently. By forging new strategic partnerships, they unlock
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Speaker 1: new possibilities, creating a world powered by healthy digital systems
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Speaker 1: alive with opportunity, oxygen to innovation, and energy to change
22:04
Speaker 1: the world. Kindrel the heart of progress. Back here on
22:10
Speaker 1: the NFL Explaining Podcast, Mike Yam and A. D. D.
22:12
Speaker 1: Kincobala with you. All right, let's start with this. Each
22:16
Speaker 1: decade has some starting quarterbacks with a higher passer rating
22:19
Speaker 1: win at least seventy of their games. So last season
22:23
Speaker 1: it was actually a little higher seventy nine point four
22:26
Speaker 1: of those games. And as far as the Big One,
22:29
Speaker 1: only seven times in NFL history has the Super Bowl
22:32
Speaker 1: winning quarterback had a lower passer rating than the opposing QB.
22:37
Speaker 1: So Tom Brady has actually done it three times, Big Ben.
22:40
Speaker 1: He's done it in both his wins. His Super Bowl
22:42
Speaker 1: forty win yielded a twenty two point six rating. Don't matter,
22:46
Speaker 1: you got the victory, got the victory. You can throw
22:48
Speaker 1: that on the resume. Great defense, great run game, great's,
22:51
Speaker 1: great run game. He has said, I will tell you this.
22:53
Speaker 1: He has said that the second Super Bowl was sweeter
22:56
Speaker 1: just because he felt more responsible. But to be fair.
23:00
Speaker 1: The Steelers did make that first Super Bowl run because
23:02
Speaker 1: of the way he played to get them there, just
23:04
Speaker 1: wasn't the greatest of afternoons for him. Look, I mean,
23:07
Speaker 1: it's the totality of it. You got the rings, it's
23:10
Speaker 1: on the resume. It'll be listed, you know, under the
23:12
Speaker 1: Hall of Fame bust when it does happen. John Elway,
23:14
Speaker 1: by the way, one super Bowl thirty two, how about
23:16
Speaker 1: this a fifty one point nine rating? Nick Foles my
23:20
Speaker 1: guy one super Bowl fifty two with a one oh
23:22
Speaker 1: six point one that was actually lower than Brady's one
23:26
Speaker 1: fifteen point four. But that's because Nick Foles didn't get
23:29
Speaker 1: credit for that amazing touchdown catch. Imagine if he had
23:33
Speaker 1: good call good call like and that changes the dynamic
23:37
Speaker 1: of things the Philly Special. Maybe there should have been
23:40
Speaker 1: an asterisk next to that QBR that day. So somebody
23:48
Speaker 1: that I've known a long time, Byron Leftwitch, he played
23:50
Speaker 1: quarterback with the Steelers. He, of course, as the moment
23:53
Speaker 1: that we are recording this right now, is the Bucks
23:57
Speaker 1: offensive coordinator. I remember him once saying that he never
24:01
Speaker 1: really got the QB rating, Like there were times when
24:04
Speaker 1: he would feel that he played really well but then
24:07
Speaker 1: afterwards he'd look at the box score and his QB
24:09
Speaker 1: rating was terrible. And I'm almost sure I am sure
24:13
Speaker 1: that he is on the record saying I really don't
24:16
Speaker 1: know how it all adds up. I can think of
24:18
Speaker 1: somebody else who said that. Trent Dilfer, of course, who's
24:21
Speaker 1: an alanist on TV now, he once said the same
24:23
Speaker 1: exact thing. He said, I pay attention to my rating
24:27
Speaker 1: on third down and in the red zone. Otherwise, it's
24:30
Speaker 1: most useful for fantasy football people who are more concerned
24:34
Speaker 1: with numbers than good old fashioned winning. Kind of an
24:38
Speaker 1: old school approach, because we're even seeing this now. Analytics
24:42
Speaker 1: does play a huge part of d D in how
24:45
Speaker 1: teams are proceeding and strategizing and executing on the football field. Yeah,
24:51
Speaker 1: but that has nothing to do with rating. Like that
24:52
Speaker 1: is completely a different thing. Because quarterback rating as an
24:56
Speaker 1: assessment as a metric, I think it's very Again, I
25:00
Speaker 1: would sit here and argue the single most important metric
25:04
Speaker 1: to judge a quarterback by is the W Let's take
25:07
Speaker 1: trential for a look. You want a super Bowl on
25:09
Speaker 1: the back of a great defense, arguably the greatest defense
25:13
Speaker 1: of all time. The two thousand. Ravens coach Brian Billick
25:16
Speaker 1: lad that team and he ended his career with a
25:19
Speaker 1: very seventy point to pass and rating, but he is
25:23
Speaker 1: a Super Bowl champion. I agree with what you're saying, like,
25:26
Speaker 1: wins at the end of the day is all that
25:28
Speaker 1: matters for all of these teams. But when you are
25:30
Speaker 1: trying to assess what I would call the most important
25:32
Speaker 1: position in all of sports, and that's why you know
25:34
Speaker 1: we're giving a rating, and there are multiple metrics. You
25:37
Speaker 1: just mentioned qb are, We've been talking about passer rating.
25:40
Speaker 1: There's so many different stats for the evaluation process. Wins
25:44
Speaker 1: are there, but even like you said more recently, wins right, Like, uh,
25:47
Speaker 1: the Rams got to a Super Bowl with Jared Goff,
25:49
Speaker 1: they felt like, hey, we can upgrade at that position.
25:51
Speaker 1: We're gonna go and bring in Matthew Stafford. San Francisco
25:54
Speaker 1: is a city that I lived in for years. The Niners,
25:56
Speaker 1: you know, they drafted trade Lance even though Jimmy g
25:58
Speaker 1: a couple of seasons ago gets them to a Super Bowl.
26:01
Speaker 1: So look, those teams didn't get over the hump and
26:02
Speaker 1: they didn't win, and I get that, but getting to
26:04
Speaker 1: that game is really difficult, So I'm with you, and
26:07
Speaker 1: maybe wins has to be a factor a d D
26:10
Speaker 1: when it comes to passer rating in QB are. Interestingly enough, though,
26:15
Speaker 1: when we talked about in the seventies when passer rating
26:17
Speaker 1: is sort of evolving and it's the basic metrics that
26:19
Speaker 1: are out there now, we are blessed and really fortunate
26:23
Speaker 1: and I think in a lot of ways to be
26:24
Speaker 1: able to evaluate players differently with more and more data
26:28
Speaker 1: next gen stats. If you watch NFL network, I mean
26:30
Speaker 1: you see next gen stats all the time during game broadcasting,
26:32
Speaker 1: the whole deal. They just threw their hat into the ring,
26:35
Speaker 1: and I'm really glad that they did. With a new
26:37
Speaker 1: quarterback metric that dropped following week a team, just in
26:39
Speaker 1: time of course for the playoffs, and it's called passing Score,
26:43
Speaker 1: and it goes deep into the expected value metrics and
26:46
Speaker 1: grades quarterbacks on scores between fifty and ninety nine, which,
26:49
Speaker 1: by the way, I love those types of numbers. Once
26:51
Speaker 1: we get to triple digits, like on grade school, right,
26:54
Speaker 1: we got a hundred on exam? You're good, Like, what's
26:55
Speaker 1: this one? You know, one sixteen point one thing. But
26:58
Speaker 1: it's going to be interesting to sort of see how
27:00
Speaker 1: this holds up QBR, which you just made reference to.
27:02
Speaker 1: I was at ESPN when they were unveiling QBR Total
27:06
Speaker 1: Quarterback Rating include stats that have passer rating similarities, but
27:12
Speaker 1: also some stuff that doesn't like rushing, like sacks, likes turnovers,
27:16
Speaker 1: even penalties. So I think it's a little bit more
27:18
Speaker 1: of a holistic view a d D. And then you've
27:20
Speaker 1: got Pro Football Focus right, like they grade not just quarterbacks.
27:24
Speaker 1: They're analyzing every player, every single play, which to me
27:28
Speaker 1: is really cool and I think even more fascinating Addy
27:31
Speaker 1: when you look at the different categories right ESPN, qb R,
27:34
Speaker 1: passer rating, PF grades that are out there, you're gonna
27:38
Speaker 1: see similarities and crossover of the different players. But sometimes
27:42
Speaker 1: on those lists there's some outliers that are there, like
27:45
Speaker 1: one outlier, and I'm not going to go through the list.
27:47
Speaker 1: It's it's the names that you would think that are
27:48
Speaker 1: in that top ten, top fifteen or so. But if
27:52
Speaker 1: you look but let's let's just say that one more time, Mike,
27:54
Speaker 1: for guys and gals who are listening. So if you
27:57
Speaker 1: took pass or rating traditional passer rating, then you took
28:01
Speaker 1: a p F grade, and then you took the ESPNS
28:06
Speaker 1: QBR rating. Then, as you were saying, when you look
28:10
Speaker 1: across the top you will generally see some similarities, meaning
28:16
Speaker 1: that Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, they're
28:21
Speaker 1: kind of in the top ten, top half consistently across
28:26
Speaker 1: all three metrics. But as you were just saying, there
28:30
Speaker 1: is actually one outlier in this whole system, no doubt,
28:34
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts is actually that outlier. Right, So this is
28:37
Speaker 1: a guy who's got a ton of success running the football,
28:41
Speaker 1: twenty two in passer rating, nineteenth in QBR, and guess what,
28:45
Speaker 1: PFF actually has some tenth, So once again he's an outlier.
28:50
Speaker 1: I'd also include Jimmy Garoppolo on that list, who sits
28:53
Speaker 1: ninth in passer rating. You're not gonna see Jimmy G's
28:57
Speaker 1: name though, on ESPN's top ten, their QBR or PF's grating.
29:01
Speaker 1: So once again, the metrics are a little bit different
29:04
Speaker 1: depending on your skill set and think in a lot
29:06
Speaker 1: of ways a d D. I had this conversation I
29:08
Speaker 1: cornered Cynthia Freeland Um in our NFL Network newsroom the
29:11
Speaker 1: other day, and I had said, Hey, your simulations you're
29:14
Speaker 1: running three hundred thousand of them. Why do you run
29:16
Speaker 1: three hundred thousand simulations when you're doing your individual grades?
29:19
Speaker 1: Don't things level out at like ten thousand simulations or
29:22
Speaker 1: twenty thousand? Like what's that delta? And she said for
29:25
Speaker 1: her and what she does, And I thought it was
29:27
Speaker 1: fascinating her proprietary software, which is why it's so damn accurate.
29:31
Speaker 1: She's grading out individuals and over three hundred thousand, you
29:34
Speaker 1: get a real holistic view when guys don't play and
29:37
Speaker 1: when guys are playing. So I think once again, when
29:40
Speaker 1: you're evaluating some of these quarterbacks, add it does make
29:42
Speaker 1: it fairly interesting if you're going to lean on some
29:46
Speaker 1: of these metrics. What metrics matter? And do those metrics
29:49
Speaker 1: matter for certain teams? And the quarterback system matters as well,
29:53
Speaker 1: so meaning that a quarterback could be a perfect fit
29:57
Speaker 1: in one offense in one scheme and one system, and
30:00
Speaker 1: not necessarily work so well in another one. I mean
30:03
Speaker 1: we see that at every position. Essentially. I still come
30:07
Speaker 1: back to this. To me, it's your ability to win,
30:11
Speaker 1: and that's what ultimately separates you as a quarterback, because
30:14
Speaker 1: the quarterback is the guy that touches the ball on
30:16
Speaker 1: every single play. There is no more important position in
30:19
Speaker 1: the game of football. That's why he's the highest paid guy.
30:21
Speaker 1: That's why he's most likely the face of your franchise,
30:24
Speaker 1: that's why he's most often your captain. So in some way,
30:28
Speaker 1: quarterback wins should be a stat at least that's how
30:31
Speaker 1: I feel about it. With the only thing I would say,
30:33
Speaker 1: the only caveat there I'd give you is that this
30:35
Speaker 1: is a really rough year for Lamar Jackson. He was
30:37
Speaker 1: in and out, hurt, up and down. So it might
30:40
Speaker 1: be useful to go back and look at his MVP
30:42
Speaker 1: year and see if in this traditional, traditional way of
30:47
Speaker 1: gauging quarterback play he did indeed fit that or because
30:51
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson is such an untraditional quarterback and so dynamic
30:56
Speaker 1: and valuable to his team and what he does, that
30:58
Speaker 1: a metric like QBR isn't going to be the best
31:01
Speaker 1: assessment of who he is and what he does. I
31:04
Speaker 1: don't know what we would have done without gool Goal
31:05
Speaker 1: back in the day doing this podcast, but what I
31:07
Speaker 1: will say is Lamar jackson m v P season was
31:11
Speaker 1: third in passer rating, So you're right, still not number
31:15
Speaker 1: one though, for what it's worth, in that metric and
31:18
Speaker 1: still an m v P type season, although three, you know,
31:21
Speaker 1: we're kind of scratching the service and knocking on the
31:23
Speaker 1: door to be that top guy. But the results were
31:25
Speaker 1: there with victories, and he means so much to his
31:28
Speaker 1: football team, So I'm with you. Uhm, it's fascinating. I
31:33
Speaker 1: still like the metrics though, because I still think you
31:36
Speaker 1: need something holistically to give context to what we're seeing
31:40
Speaker 1: at that position well, and I think that people always
31:42
Speaker 1: like to have something to judge or as you said,
31:48
Speaker 1: rank people by, and so until we come up with
31:51
Speaker 1: a better formula, I think that this is what we have,
31:54
Speaker 1: and it's fair as to people who do radio a
31:58
Speaker 1: whole lot, we need things like pastor rating to give
32:01
Speaker 1: us some fodder. It's funny you say that because I
32:04
Speaker 1: do my best not to include stats. I feel like
32:07
Speaker 1: storytelling is uh numbers. Sometimes I get lost in the numbers,
32:12
Speaker 1: and I know what my eye tells me passes the
32:14
Speaker 1: eye test or not. Is Joe Burrow playing well? Heck yeah,
32:17
Speaker 1: is he hot right now? I don't need to know
32:19
Speaker 1: what his passer rating is. Is Aaron Rodgers a guy
32:22
Speaker 1: I trust? With forty seconds left in the game, he
32:26
Speaker 1: is somebody I trust, whatever his passerrating is for the
32:29
Speaker 1: day or not, and when's matter super Bowl victories, I'm
32:33
Speaker 1: never really worried about Tom Brady's passer rating. Well, we're
32:38
Speaker 1: gearing up to all of that, right, and we'll see
32:40
Speaker 1: which of these quarterbacks is going to end up in
32:43
Speaker 1: l A pretty soon. Mike. It's been a fun season,
32:46
Speaker 1: that's for sure. It has been awesome, and I hope
32:48
Speaker 1: people learned a little bit of something something here when
32:50
Speaker 1: it comes to passer rating in quarterbacks. That's right. Thank
32:53
Speaker 1: you everybody for joining us, message us your questions, and
32:57
Speaker 1: that is quarterback rating explained. America's most reliable network is
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