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Are the Jaguars Going to Regress? · Duval Daily: A Jacksonville Jaguars Podcast

• 0:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: Jacksonville Jaguar's fans, welcome into Duval, daily presented by Genjag.com and fueled by brass tax coffee.
• 0:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's Friday, June 5th, and right now we are talking about regression.
• 0:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: A lot of folks around the league seem to think the Jaguar's will regress in 2026.
• 0:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: If not based on their analysis, based on a lot of the power rankings we're seeing, I think the average ranking for the Jaguars across power rankings from all the major sites that I've pulled up is in between 14 and 15, which is a fringe playoff team, a team that could very well not make the playoffs.
• 0:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: And now, there's a number of reasons folks argue the Jaguars will regress in 2026.
• 0:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: The fact that, you know, they only have six games in Jacksonville.
• 0:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I think that that's a fair point, I honestly do.
• 0:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think that only playing six games out of 17 in your home stadium is a tough pill to swallow.
• 1:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: That is one of the few points that I think could really matter.
• 1:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think it could really matter.
• 1:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: Do I think that they're built to overcome it?
• 1:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: I do.
• 1:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think being able to play run defense the way they can, having some of the talent at some of the specific spots that they do, that they'll be able to overcome it and be a good football team, but that is a concern.
• 1:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: So we're gonna get into the rest of these things that I personally don't agree with, but I can understand the argument from a certain point of view.
• 1:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: Shout out to all the Star Wars fans out there.
• 1:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, really appreciate you all being here.
• 1:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: If you enjoy the content, please like and subscribe.
• 1:51
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• 1:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: You can also hit that hype button.
• 1:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: I know some of y'all have hit the hype button too many times already.
• 1:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: If you've already hit it too many times this week, I understand.
• 2:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: You don't have to hit it again.
• 2:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: You don't have to figure out how to do that.
• 2:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think you can only hype a video three times in a week or high, high three times in a week, something like that.
• 2:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: But really appreciate you all support.
• 2:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: It means the world to me.
• 2:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: Love talking jacks football with you.
• 2:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, the jack wars.
• 2:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: One big argument that I hear, the Jack Wars didn't get better this off, season while other AFC teams did.
• 2:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, getting better at this point in the year is obviously very subjective.
• 2:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: I get why people would say that though, you know, losing free agents, not bringing back free agents, not having a draft class that many draft pundits and draft analysts really value you're going against consensus, all these things.
• 2:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: But I think that they did get better in several ways.
• 2:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think that for sure, like having Travis Hunter available makes you better, the Jack Wars didn't have him, they only had him for like seven games last year.
• 2:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: Having him is going to make them better.
• 3:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think going into your two of the same system both on offense and defense is going to make them better.
• 3:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think that and that's like top down everybody.
• 3:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think that there's a number of ways they potentially get better.
• 3:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: BTJ did not play very well last year, at least for the first, you know, two-thirds of the season.
• 3:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: Play a little bit better down the stretch.
• 3:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: could he play better I think so so there's a lot of ways I think this jackworth seem to be better you know people don't love the pick of Nate Borgerture well guess what that allows you to be more confident running 12 person out that can help you get better Chris Rodriguez
• 3:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: Facial Tutankling Allen.
• 3:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: I know that they lost Travis ETM, right?
• 3:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: Which that's a big argument, people say they didn't replace Travis ETM.
• 3:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: Travis ETM was not an efficient runner.
• 3:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: His success rate was extremely low last year.
• 4:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: It was in the 40s and long all running backs.
• 4:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: And the two top backs that they have right now, Chris Rodriguez and Basial Tutankling were both in the top five.
• 4:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: Depending on where you look, maybe top 10, but ESPN, top five, soon reports, top 10, like two backs that were incredibly successful last year.
• 4:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: Chris Rodriguez, Basel Tutan.
• 4:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: So as much as I love Travis C. T. N. and his receiving impact, like we saw Basel Tutan when given opportunities, make a receiving impact as well.
• 4:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: Obviously Chris Rodriguez was a much more successful in between the tackles runner.
• 4:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think you have like a little thunder and lightning situation there with those two guys.
• 4:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: The money ball kind of approach at the running back position makes sense to me, and look,
• 4:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: They didn't have to go out and directly replace Travis E. T.N.
• 4:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: because they had his replacement already on the roster.
• 4:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: Baseful T.N., like they are somewhat in the same archetype.
• 5:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think the basal T.N.
• 5:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: might even have a more... Maybe not a more well-rounded game, because E.T.N.
• 5:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: was a very good passblocker.
• 5:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: E.T.N.
• 5:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: was a very good receiver.
• 5:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, going into 2025, E.T.N.
• 5:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: was struggling in past protection, but he got really good last year.
• 5:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think Tutan though can do both of those things and probably be a more efficient and successful runner.
• 5:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, I'm not worried about the running back room.
• 5:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: I get why someone would be.
• 5:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe I'll be wrong, maybe missing Travis ETN is going to be a big deal.
• 5:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: I just don't really see how it is.
• 5:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I'm somebody who won on Travis ETN to be back.
• 5:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: He did get more money than I expected, so that's one factor.
• 5:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: If I would have known he would have got 13 plus million or whatever, it ended up being, I might have changed my tune a little bit, but I'll be pulling for him.
• 5:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: I just don't think that
• 6:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: his absence replaced by facial toot and Chris Rodriguez is going to be a negative for the jag horse.
• 6:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: And then you talk about Devon Lloyd.
• 6:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: People say that didn't do anything to replace Devon Lloyd.
• 6:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, again, I think that they already believed that his replacement was on the roster.
• 6:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: Ventral Miller.
• 6:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: is a player that when he did have to play for Devon Lloyd last year when Devon Lloyd was injured, played extremely well.
• 6:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: So it's another one where, to me, it's a nothing burger.
• 6:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think Ventral Miller is a really good run defender and a really good blitzer.
• 6:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's what Devon Lloyd's best assets were to the Jack Wars last year.
• 6:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, he did pick off five passes.
• 6:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: That was really impressive.
• 6:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: Will Ventral Miller replace that ball production in coverage?
• 6:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's unlikely that Devin Lloyd would have gotten five interceptions this next season, right?
• 6:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like, that is just a really incredible year for a linebacker.
• 6:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: So you say, well, how do you replace that turnover production?
• 7:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, I think having corners that can go do the job kind of helps.
• 7:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: As I mentioned, Travis Hunter, Buster Brown, that could help out a lot.
• 7:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: When it comes to forcing turnovers, getting interceptions.
• 7:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: And Ventura Miller, I hope you'll be able to pop the ball out.
• 7:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's for sure.
• 7:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: And it's not like he can't make plays on the ball.
• 7:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: We've seen him make plays on the ball.
• 7:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think he's gonna play well.
• 7:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think that one area that is interesting that I think has probably like a legitimate argument and it's not something that is, I think is gonna cause the Jaguars to regress, but it's a legitimate argument against them as like maybe a potential Super Bowl champion.
• 7:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: They don't have a true number one receiver.
• 7:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think that's true right now.
• 7:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think they have multiple players that could serve in that role and they have a really well-rounded and deep-light receiver room that makes up for it.
• 7:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: But in the gotta-have-it-moment and a playoff game, do you have your gotta-have-it-it-guy?
• 8:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: Right now, I think the gotta-have it.
• 8:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: Third and medium type of guy is probably Jacobi.
• 8:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: Britain's strange would be in that category for me as well.
• 8:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think Travis Hunter could be that.
• 8:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think BTJ could be that.
• 8:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think Parker Washington can be that.
• 8:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I think they have a lot of options, but at this juncture to say they don't have a true number one receiver, I think it's fair, but they do have five quality receivers that they can target.
• 8:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's, that's gonna be an interesting dichotomy to kind of watch as this season unfolds.
• 8:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: You've got the argument that Trevor Lawrence has never stacked back to back seasons.
• 8:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: I truly don't believe that that's fair.
• 8:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: In 2022,
• 8:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, a little bit of a rocky start, which is the same thing that happened this year, and then exploding down the stretch, having an unbelievable finish to the year.
• 8:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: In 2023, he wasn't putting up insane numbers early on, but I think he was playing winning football and willing the Jaguars to win a lot of the games that were winning, and that was a team that was on the precipice of earning a number one seed, and then Trevor Lawrence gets injured, and everything falls apart.
• 9:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's the breaks man, but to me, he was playing well in 2022 and he was playing well in 2023 before he got injured.
• 9:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: 2024 was a down year for him, it wasn't, it wasn't, by no strategy, the imagination was like a good year for him, because they had the same thing about most of the Jaguar's team.
• 9:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I also just feel like Trevor Lawrence has never been in a situation that really lent itself to long-term, sustained success.
• 9:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I said as much, I did not believe with Trent Balki as the Jaguar's general manager that they were going to be able to be a team that was going to have sustained championship level success.
• 10:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: And it turned out, Doug Peterson wasn't going to get them there either, with the way he was viewing coaching and the way he was kind of handling things down the stretch.
• 10:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I believe Trevor Lawrence is in a situation with his personnel around him and with his coaching, Liam Cohen, that he'll be able to stack seasons.
• 10:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: We'll see.
• 10:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: The Jaguars haven't stacked back to back playoff, run since 1998, 99.
• 10:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: You have to admit, in 2022 and 2023, they did have back-to-back winning seasons, but they did not make the playoffs in 2023.
• 10:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: So you're talking about just organizational failure over the last quarter century.
• 10:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's fair to bring up, but what about this organization is similar to what it has been in the past, outside of the fact that shotgun has been the owner since like 2012.
• 11:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: You have Tony Bicelli, James Gladstone, Liam Cohen, leading the charge, I think you have a lot more talent and a lot more areas.
• 11:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: You have a lot of great coaches throughout the roster.
• 11:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think you have an ecosystem that is really built on
• 11:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: people that want to level up day to day and year to year.
• 11:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: And so I don't worry about like the failures of Jack Del Rio and the failures of Gus Bradley of Doug Marone, Tom Kaufflin, you know, urban cryer, Doug Peterson Trimbalki.
• 11:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's, that's scar tissue.
• 11:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's like scars of the past come and back to haunt people thinking about that.
• 11:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: To me, that's not gonna haunt this football team and Liam Cohen is 100% aware of a lot of teams in Jaguar's history and an NFL history that has been one hit wonders and he is doing everything he can actively to combat that.
• 12:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: The final thing I wanted to bring up, the Jaguar is not having enough pass rush.
• 12:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: That could be.
• 12:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: We've talked about that a million times here on the channel.
• 12:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: And any talking about it all off season, probably.
• 12:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think.
• 12:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: the combination of Josh Heinz Allen, healthy tray of Omalker, healthy Eric Armstrong's dead.
• 12:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: Plus, Travis Hunter being at corner replacing Greg Newsom is going to allow you to have a good bit more past rush.
• 12:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think Rook Aurora Roe will give them more past rush than they had behind Eric Armstrong's dead last year.
• 12:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: I really do.
• 12:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think Wesley Williams is a player that, like between Wesley Williams, Danny Striggow, B.J.
• 12:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: Green.
• 12:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think that
• 12:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I mean, you can include zactor if you want.
• 12:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think that there's enough potential options with guys that I think have what it takes in the NFL for one or multiple of those guys to actually surprise and put up some numbers more than a lot of people expect.
• 13:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I don't expect the Jaguar's to regress as a team.
• 13:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: I have said, since the schedule came out, I don't expect them.
• 13:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm not predicting that they're going to win 13 games.
• 13:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: A little bit more difficult schedule than last year on paper, but the biggest thing is you have 11 games away from Jacksonville.
• 13:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's difficult to manage.
• 13:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I have them at 12.
• 13:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think the legitimate range, it'd be surprising to me if they let one less than 11, but 10 could happen.
• 13:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: And obviously, if you have specific injuries or specific positions, I mean, who knows what'll happen.
• 13:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: a lot can happen with with the i-word but uh... i think that the legit ranges my opinion eleven but i could give you ten to fourteen and and my best guess is twelve right now let me know what you think in the comment section below do you think the jaggers are primed for regression or are they a team that's actually kind of like a sleeping giant right now
• 14:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: a lot of people underrating them under estimating them going into 2026.
• 14:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: Let me know what you think in the comment section below.
• 14:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: Really appreciate y'all tuning in supporting the channel.
• 14:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: Y'all have a good one.