Latest / DEEP INSIGHT / Analyst says oil prices 'will remain elevated for quite some time'

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Analyst says oil prices 'will remain elevated for quite some time' · DEEP INSIGHT

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Chat David.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: Iran negotiating with Oman earlier today, and Zama Rashid was
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: saying Iran is feeling optimistic. I said, anytime you hear
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: those words, alarm bell should go off.
• 0:10
  Speaker 3: Yes, so he's hearing that from Iranian officials. There are
• 0:12
  Speaker 3: two Middle East diplomats I talked to late yesterday and
• 0:15
  Speaker 3: they said there's the framework for a deal, but they
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  Speaker 3: won't talk about any of the specifics. And the broad
• 0:20
  Speaker 3: thing to watch is is Iran going to take to
• 0:23
  Speaker 3: facto control of the straight over moves? Will they collect fees?
• 0:26
  Speaker 3: Can they stop traffic in one way or the other?
• 0:29
  Speaker 3: They are going to try to get that, and if
• 0:31
  Speaker 3: they get that.
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  Speaker 4: They have won this war.
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  Speaker 1: They will have control of the new facts on the ground.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, energy in a waterway in the world.
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  Speaker 5: Getting that is not the result of an agreement, right,
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  Speaker 5: it's just their decision to take it.
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  Speaker 4: They have taken it.
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  Speaker 3: And the President said in another interview yesterday we control
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: the straight and and that.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Is as of our blockade.
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: Explain to viewers that know that we have a US
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: and post blockade, how do you square that with the
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: fact that Oman and Iran are the ones that are
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: negotiating with each other.
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  Speaker 3: Because Iran wants to only negotiate with Oman to show
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: that it's a regional issue and keep.
• 1:00
  Speaker 4: The US out of it.
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  Speaker 3: The US is limited, it's using few Navy ships, and
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  Speaker 3: it's stopping ships from going in and out of Iranian ports.
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  Speaker 4: That's it.
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: We could have sent a very large number of ships
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: to try to fight the Iranians, sink all their boats,
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: attack their coastline, and lose a lot of American lives,
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: but we haven't done that because President Trump is sort
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: of waging halfway war where we're just using aerial attacks
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: and the Iranians know it. So they are going to
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: keep pushing this through the midterm elections. They're a horrific
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: regime that has killed thousands of their.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: People and Americans.
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: And Americans, but I and they are going to come
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  Speaker 3: out of this if President Trump folds and gets the
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: gas prices slightly lower, you know, and it helps them
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: in the midterms.
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  Speaker 4: You have a more powerful Iran now.
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  Speaker 2: For years, ron Americans just want to know when they're
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: going to pay less at the pump, and you know,
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: we see the oil prices surge on you know, some
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: of the bomb bass coming out of the President and
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: then we see him dip when the President says that
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  Speaker 2: we're in ongoing negotiations. But you know, how long till
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: the market don't believe the president anymore?
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: And then when will Americans actually get relief?
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  Speaker 5: Well, I think I think the presence becoming increasingly less
• 2:06
  Speaker 5: important in that regard. I mean yesterday, and it's hard
• 2:09
  Speaker 5: to verify some of these claims that were made, presumably
• 2:12
  Speaker 5: by Iran that they were going to target Saudi Arabia's
• 2:14
  Speaker 5: energy infrastructure. If that happens, it really doesn't matter what
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  Speaker 5: the President says. You know, you have a pipeline that
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  Speaker 5: cuts across to the Red Sea that Saudi Arabia put
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  Speaker 5: in place.
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  Speaker 4: It's above ground, it's a target.
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  Speaker 5: So if Iran were really to attack Saudi Arabia, Qatar
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  Speaker 5: and other oil producing countries in that region, oil prices
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  Speaker 5: are not coming down, They're going up.
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  Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia is already under threat. The Huthis are already
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  Speaker 2: threatening Babblemande. So what's the significance of that. I know
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  Speaker 2: many of our viewers may not even know where that is.
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: I had to do my own research. Even having studied all.
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  Speaker 3: Of this, it's one of So there's already the most
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  Speaker 3: important energy route in the world, the straight oh Hor
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  Speaker 3: moves And just on the other sort of end of
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  Speaker 3: the Arabian Peninsula is the Red Sta other artery. That's
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  Speaker 3: another area that has been closed also, So that shows
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: how aggressive Iran is being about they just turned going
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: to back down right now to the to the Trump administration,
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  Speaker 3: and it's it's just an extraordinary moment and the president
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  Speaker 3: has mismanaged, you know, this war.
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: And to remind also that the Huthis are an Iranian proxy.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Marriott, you look like that.
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  Speaker 6: Yeah, well, I was just gonna ask David, like you said,
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  Speaker 6: we lose this war if this agreement stands as we
• 3:19
  Speaker 6: think it will. But isn't that kind of the best
• 3:22
  Speaker 6: case scenario right now that we have some kind of
• 3:24
  Speaker 6: agreement and you just need to get it over with.
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: Yes, I don't want to go easy bluntly on President Trump.
• 3:32
  Speaker 4: This was a war of choice.
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  Speaker 3: You're making Iran, you know, more powerful, you're not limiting
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  Speaker 3: its nuclear program. It's a huge loss for the United
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: States in terms of it's standing throughout the world.
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  Speaker 4: It's a huge loss for Israel, a very.
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  Speaker 3: Close American ally, and for Saudi Arabia and all these
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: countries and the problem is, you know, they just they
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: have enough missiles left. Right now, there's a proposal on
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  Speaker 3: the table for two weeks of intensive US strikes from
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  Speaker 3: the Commander of Sentcom. The problems that President Trump does
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  Speaker 3: that you will have have missiles raining down on Saudi
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: Arabia and Kuwait and all those oil fields.
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  Speaker 1: And we have depleted munitions.
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  Speaker 3: We don't have enough Patriot missiles to stop that, And that,
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  Speaker 3: I would argue is the fault of Defense Secretary Hegseeth.
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  Speaker 3: You've got to plan for worst case scenarios when you
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: make the decision on February twenty eighth to attack Iran.
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  Speaker 4: This is now a six month old war.
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: Well tried, Yeah, the president. According to all the reporting,
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  Speaker 2: the President was warned by the generals that they were
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: already in a precarious situation when it came to munitions.
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: We already were needing to supply munitions to Ukraine. There
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: are major concerns here for our allies in the region
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  Speaker 2: who can't protect themselves against Iranian retaliation. So it's handcuffing
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  Speaker 2: our actions.
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  Speaker 3: And this administration is asking the Congress for one point
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  Speaker 3: five trillion dollars, including for new Trump nuclear powered battleships.
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  Speaker 4: That no one wants totally.
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  Speaker 3: I'm sure is drone completely obsolete, And this is just
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  Speaker 3: rank and competence. Just lastly, fifty thousand Americans are risking
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: their lives for this country right now, and they don't
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  Speaker 3: have the Patriot missiles they need to defend American bases.
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  Speaker 5: And not to mention that if this is a wider
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  Speaker 5: regional war, I'm sorry, then go.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: For it quick and then I'll get to Max.
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  Speaker 5: The Abraham Accords go play. Israel becomes far less protected
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  Speaker 5: than it was in the past. And you then when
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  Speaker 5: you're talking about is this the best case scenario? No,
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  Speaker 5: oil prices will remain elevated globally for quite some time
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  Speaker 5: into the future. So for us, for anyone, it's not
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  Speaker 5: a best case scenario.
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  Speaker 1: Is there a best case scenario?
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  Speaker 4: Right?
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  Speaker 7: Max and Toront's point not only oil prices, but gas prices,
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  Speaker 7: because gas prices lag oil prices.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: It was so crazy at the beginning of the war.
• 5:41
  Speaker 7: You had Trump administration officials coming out and saying, well,
• 5:44
  Speaker 7: gas price are gonna start to come down in a couple
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  Speaker 7: of weeks. When you're talking to experts on this, they're
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  Speaker 7: saying no, no, no, It's going to take months, maybe a year,
• 5:50
  Speaker 7: because you have refining capacity that has been heard, and
• 5:53
  Speaker 7: then you have the fact that gas stations buy the
• 5:56
  Speaker 7: gas when it's expensive and then have to sell it.
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  Speaker 7: So there's this now natural lag. People need to buckle
• 6:01
  Speaker 7: up for a long run of higher gas price.
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  Speaker 2: We have a very short window here, but I hate
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  Speaker 2: promising viewers something and not delivering at least part of it.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: This is a longer discussion that.
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: We had, But Mary, let's turn to what's going on
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: here at home with the Democrats. The New York Times
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  Speaker 2: has really interesting reporting that Third Way, a group of
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: moderate Democrats, is raising fifteen million dollars in an effort
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: to combat Democratic Socialists. Everybody heard that, right, They're raising
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: money to try to defeat Democratic socialists in their midst
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  Speaker 2: doesn't sound like the party they're going to have a
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: unifying breakfast or you know, an event today. Abdoula set
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  Speaker 2: has become somewhat of a firebrand within the Democratic Party.
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  Speaker 1: How does all of this shake out?
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  Speaker 6: I mean, can we separate out Third Way from the Democrats,
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  Speaker 6: because I really feel like this is a interest group
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  Speaker 6: that is trying to start this fight, which I get.
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  Speaker 2: But isn't an indicative we can definitely do that. But
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  Speaker 2: isn't an indicative of a more moderate swath of the
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  Speaker 2: Democratic part that's concerned about electability and about policies.
• 7:03
  Speaker 6: Sure that's true, I don't know. I think this infighting
• 7:08
  Speaker 6: is not productive, and I'll tell you why, which is
• 7:10
  Speaker 6: I think one of the things I have personally learned
• 7:14
  Speaker 6: from Donald Trump is how important speed is two voters
• 7:18
  Speaker 6: in communicating that you are willing to get stuff done.
• 7:21
  Speaker 6: I would argue Trump has done that incredibly destructively, especially
• 7:24
  Speaker 6: in this second term. But I do think voters look
• 7:27
  Speaker 6: at him and they say, that's a guy who just
• 7:29
  Speaker 6: does stuff. And when I look at people who are
• 7:31
  Speaker 6: communicating their effectiveness in interesting ways, I look at someone
• 7:34
  Speaker 6: like Zoron Momdannie, who's constantly telling you, I am doing
• 7:37
  Speaker 6: this Pieta tair attacks, I'm doing X and Y and Z. Now,
• 7:41
  Speaker 6: if you are too busy fighting amongst yourselves to communicate
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  Speaker 6: what you are doing when you are doing it, you
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  Speaker 6: are going to lose the voters. So if I was
• 7:49
  Speaker 6: someone who's looking to invest fifteen million dollars right now,
• 7:51
  Speaker 6: I might look at this race in Michigan and say, gee,
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  Speaker 6: it looks like a lot of voters are pretty interested
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  Speaker 6: in medicare for all right now, And how the heck.
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  Speaker 1: Am I going to do that?
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  Speaker 6: Because it's going to be really hard or get anywhere
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  Speaker 6: close to that, because you see a lot of people
• 8:04
  Speaker 6: responding to that, and you may not want to do it, but.
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  Speaker 1: At the same time, it seems to be interesting to people.
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  Speaker 1: We just bought ourselves more time. Guys, we have more
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  Speaker 1: time to talk about this. Thank you producers. Max. How
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  Speaker 1: do you square all.
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  Speaker 2: Of that with the fact that you saw this one
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  Speaker 2: percent margin in Michigan it was predicted to be a
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: much more dominant victory for LSA ED And clearly there
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: were about forty something percent of the electorate, the Democratic
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: electorate that said we're not in bed, We're not going
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  Speaker 2: to do this the way that Elseayad wants to do it.
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  Speaker 1: Where do they go now, Well, I think there's a
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  Speaker 1: question about polling.
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  Speaker 7: Obviously the polls got it wrong. It's very hard to
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  Speaker 7: poll in twenty twenty six, and I.
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  Speaker 1: Think this is the latest example of that.
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  Speaker 7: But I do think it's an impressive win, even a
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  Speaker 7: one percent win in an election like this where his
• 8:51
  Speaker 7: opponent was running with endorsements from the governor from you know,
• 8:55
  Speaker 7: huge amounts of a huge monetary advantage. And when I
• 8:57
  Speaker 7: look at this third way thing, I think it plays
• 9:00
  Speaker 7: well with donors. There are a lot of donors who
• 9:02
  Speaker 7: think that they can just put a bunch of money
• 9:05
  Speaker 7: and they're going to change voters' opinions. But what we're
• 9:08
  Speaker 7: seeing from these populist Democrats and even some Republicans is
• 9:11
  Speaker 7: they're treating it as a badge of honor not getting
• 9:14
  Speaker 7: the money.
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  Speaker 1: But is that long term?
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  Speaker 2: Is that kind of strategy going to work when we
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: live in the political climate of Citizens United and other
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: you know, this is the nature of politics right now
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: where you know, of course there's more power for the people.
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: It's being demonstrated in some of these elections. But money
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: talks still and the coffers are huge for the GOP.
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  Speaker 7: Obviously, it's going to hurt the it's it's going to
• 9:35
  Speaker 7: hurt the Democratic Socialists, and you know when ads still work.
• 9:39
  Speaker 7: But I do think it's not going to do the
• 9:42
  Speaker 7: thing that they want which has changed people's opinion, or
• 9:45
  Speaker 7: offer a different vision. It's it's it's infighting essentially.
• 9:49
  Speaker 5: I think the DSA is the inverse of Maga, I
• 9:51
  Speaker 5: think at this point, I mean, I think that's really
• 9:52
  Speaker 5: what's going on here.
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  Speaker 4: The Foyle.
• 9:54
  Speaker 5: Yeah, and the problem is the most effective president at
• 9:57
  Speaker 5: creating shared prosperity of balin budget and an intelligent use
• 10:02
  Speaker 5: of federal funds was Bill Clinton, and he was very
• 10:04
  Speaker 5: much instrumental with Tony Blair creating the notion of Third Way,
• 10:10
  Speaker 5: although I think it's not nearly the same organization as
• 10:13
  Speaker 5: it was back then, and so it's a little bit
• 10:16
  Speaker 5: disconcerting to see you this very far left, you know,
• 10:20
  Speaker 5: populist movement getting extremely powerful, if.
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: You will, within the organization.
• 10:25
  Speaker 5: When if you go back and look at history and
• 10:28
  Speaker 5: look at what the likes of a Bill Clinton was
• 10:30
  Speaker 5: able to do, that was one of the best periods
• 10:33
  Speaker 5: in our modern economic history relative.
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: To anything we've seen since.
• 10:37
  Speaker 5: And to a certain extent, even before.
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: Every day that Democrats spent attacking each other and not
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: attacking Donald Trump and just saying Trump, don Trump, is
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: I think a mistake. And then just one last thing,
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: there's a big rise in independence. I don't know the
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: polling as well as others, but this was a story
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: from June saying that the number of people who are
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: identifying as independence, whether they're registered or not, has risen
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: since it was twenty three percent in two thousand. Now
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: thirty two percent of registered voters are registered as independence.
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: That's a crucial swing group for this this materm election
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: of the