Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - US Jobs Data *Just* Out // Stock Rally at Risk + Stock Market News 03 October 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - US Jobs Data *Just* Out // Stock Rally at Risk + Stock Market News 03 October 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:20
  Speaker 1: There we are.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: I think we're actually live.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Sorry about that little technical glitch there.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: I had to literally restart the computer.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: It froze up as I clicked start the stream.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Now I wanted to actually walk you through the seven reasons why we should sell absolutely everything.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: That's a little bit of an exaggeration, but the first thing we need to look at is what the jobs data has just done.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: That's literally just come in.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: So let me pull that up for you, because that really really, really matters.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Life works Brilliant.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Okay, thanks for hanging in there.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: So we just got in this here and I'm going to take a screenshot of this so we can actually chew this through before we look at all the doom and gloom that's out there in this world and then how we can actually make money out of this, which is always my intention for you and me.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: So we've got challenger job cuts.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, 72,000 job cuts.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: It's a little lower than thought, which is I don't think it really is a needle mover.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Jobless claims came in at 225,000, slightly higher than expected, but not that much higher that it should cause panic on Wall Street.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: No one's jumping out of windows quite yet and the continuing jobless claims are basically stuck exactly where they were in the previous week.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: So I don't think this really matters either.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: So this is kind of sweet.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: This sort of keeps the soft landing miracle alive, which is really all we want.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: We get services, pmi, which is important, in about an hour and a half or so.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: An hour an hour, yeah, and you want to make sure that stays above 50 or 51, because below 50, it's recession territory and we don't want that word to be used today, do we?
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: So this is kind of perfect A shirt, unbuttoned hair, a mess, late night, exactly exactly, I know, I know.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Look at the state of me today.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: Now it's hot and I have the windows open.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: I didn't feel like putting the air con on, so therefore that.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: But yes, I appreciate you suggesting that my hair is a mess.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: That was my intention.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: So there are a couple of reasons why stuff isn't quite as glorious as it looks, and let's have a look at the pre-market here first.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: This was yesterday Tesla down three and a half percent, and this is today.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: And today looks still pretty red across the board, except Nvidia is bouncing quite nicely up 2%, but everything else is just moderately red.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Brian, you did your onboarding call yesterday with Brett.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Can't wait to open an entrepreneur.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Brilliant, my friend, and all I'd say to you is, if you ever get stuck or frustrated or something doesn't make sense like, just chat, raise your hands.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Brett's amazing, he looked after you really, really well.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: You should try to get carp's hair.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: That man is half Jewish, half black, which is pretty extraordinary as a mix in terms of you know, afros, so I don't think I can quite compete with the extraordinary hair of Alex Karp.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: Anyway, getting back to doom and gloom, before we look at how we make money out of this, the amount of margin used by funds out there is pretty high.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: So we're looking at this level here and, if you take that back in time, the last time we were at such levels was in July 2023, and then something terrible seems to have happened.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: So using margin is a dangerous thing for everybody and it is very much the same thing for the big funds.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: So we're at those crazy levels again.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: And what does that mean?
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: Well, have a look at what happened in July 2023.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: This was July 2023.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: And after that, the market dropped about 60 points on this S&P, about 15% down since that high, and that was partially because people were really overexposed.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: So when things go south.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: They really, really, really go south.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: I look like Matthew McConaughey I think that's a little kinder Rob than the messy hair remark, so you're not my favorite.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: So let me give you reason number two why you should run out and sell absolutely everything.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: I don't mean that seriously, but no, there are some bearish things in here Institutions and retail.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: How long are they?
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: How invested are they in the market?
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: So this is the zero mark.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: Right, we're up here 240 billion, which means we're really, really, really, really, really long Like.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: We're more exposed than at the peak of the 2021 market, or 2020 or 2018 or 2015.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: So a lot of money is on the market, which also means there's potential for a very significant pullback here, right, this lovely October.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: And here is reason number three to feel gloomy and depressed this morning and, just you know, shout and scream at people.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: The biggest buyer in town is who it's?
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Buybacks.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: Companies themselves are the biggest buyers of stock and I know that sounds weird, but they take a lot of their profits and they feed those profits back into the market by buying their own stocks.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: If you buy your own stock, what do you do?
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: You drive the stock price up, because you basically reduce the supply of stocks.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: There's just less shares about.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: And we're here, we're there, that's us, and it's going to keep going down for about another till, basically mid-November, 15th of November, and then it's going to shoot back up to the moon and we're going to get a nice little November rally.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: But until mid-November, don't expect much support from these companies as blackout windows go in.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Here is reason number.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Is this for fourth reason to be doomy and gloomy?
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: Today, computers are basically selling, no matter what happens.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: So the zero line is here.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: So if the market goes up, they sell.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: The market goes sideways, they sell.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: But the real danger is if the market goes down significantly say, somebody starts a war in the Middle East and oil prices jump up or something like that then that is the outcome, and that outcome would be minus $40 billion being sold by computers.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: I've got cat fur up my nose now, which is why I'm itching.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: So not brilliant right.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: Downside risk is definitely there, but there is always a silver lining, isn't it, lululemon?
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: There is always a silver lining or some spandex to buy somewhere.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: And we're actually not here.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: That's October 27th.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: What's the date today?
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: Anybody know it's October the 3rd.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: So we are here, we're here and what happens is that after October 25th that one there 25th of October, the market historically has its Christmas, its Santa rally.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: 25th of October, the market historically has it's Christmas, it's Santa rally, and I think we're going to get one.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Okay, those idiots at the ports might try to do their utmost to stop it, but other than that, I think we're very, very likely to get one.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: Lululemon, I'm glad you're paying attention.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: So there is also more good news.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: Open ai just raised 6.6 billion in new funding.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Why is that good news?
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: Because sam altman will now be worth about 10 billion dollars, and surely we all cheer for sam the uh, charitable altman, don't we?
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: I can't spell Altman, can I?
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: No, I really can't.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: Anyway, no, it is good news because it means there's lots of money about, and there's lots of money that believes AI is going to make us a lot of money, and I'm one of those people.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: I believe AI is going to make us a lot of money, and the people who were leading that was Microsoft and NVIDIA.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: They were investing in that.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: So that's quite good, that's quite bullish.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: So we like that.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: We think the party is going to keep going, and then it's just a sea of black and misery.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: No, in all seriousness, let's look at a couple of stocks here before the market opens.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: Will they IPO?
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: I suspect so.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I suspect they will.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: Hey, kiwi, I don't know why there are ads on these live streams.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: I've turned them off.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: I've told off YouTube many a times and they're sort of saying oh, we're looking into it.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: We don't really know why.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: I suspect it's something to do with certain countries where they have policies to just smash stuff out in any way, even if I don't do it.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, weird, I can't really do anything about that for some reason.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: So let's have a look at some of our stocks here.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: Okay, the S&P is essentially going sideways, but it's also not doing anything terrible here, right?
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: I like these simplified charts and trade vision, which I'd encourage you to check out.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: There's a link down below.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: Why A?
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Because I think our indicator is amazing, which calls us a buy here at $559.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: And we managed to squeeze 34% out of the S&P since the beginning of 2022.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: Buy and hold would have gotten you 19%.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: That's pretty hard to beat the index.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: So I think we're still doing okay.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: I think we're still doing all right.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: I don't think there's any like big panic yet I think Israel's response will actually matter this time.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: If they keep doing what they're doing and sort of take out people here, there and everywhere, I think it'll be fine.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: If they take out Iranian oil installations, then we have a problem, because Iran threatens to then do the same to Kuwait and, I think, part of other parts of the Middle East.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: And just look at a chart of what happened in the 1991 Gulf War.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: Right, that wasn't pretty.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: So we are hoping that they'll do something more targeted.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: Last time, I think what they did is they took out the air defenses around the nuclear sites and around, just sort of to show them we can, but they didn't actually take out the sites.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: So we're hoping for a moderate response there.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: Now we're going to have a look at some of our favorites here.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: Tesla, for example, which is down pre-market another 1.6%, trading at 249 right now and 249 or 245?
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: 245.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: Okay, okay, okay.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: So we actually have.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: We have the life.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: That's cool.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: Okay, we got.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: We got pre-market data in here in our life.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Okay, thanks, thanks, its.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: I told actually have.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: We have the life, that's cool.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Okay, we got pre-market data in here now live.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Okay, thanks, thanks, its, I told the guys.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: I asked the guys if they could do that yesterday and they did so.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: Tesla since the beginning of 2021.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Here that one is down 44%.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: I know Our little indicator by just running these little green trades app is up 81%.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: So we beat buy and hold by 120%.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: So people who say buy and hold is the only way to make money no, it's not.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: It really isn't.