Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / NFL Survivor Pool - WK6 | 10/07/25 | Picks, Analysis and Strategy

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NFL Survivor Pool - WK6 | 10/07/25 | Picks, Analysis and Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Mhmm, all systems going clear were living.
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, what is going on everyone?
• 0:42
  Speaker 3: This is sheets and welcome to week well the recap
• 0:47
  Speaker 3: of week five in the Survivor Pool experience, and uh,
• 0:53
  Speaker 3: I guess uh. The season was kind of bereft of
• 0:57
  Speaker 3: an excitement for a while, and as the NFL tends
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: to do, it kind of combined all the excitement into
• 1:04
  Speaker 3: one week. So what we're gonna do today is we're
• 1:07
  Speaker 3: going to go over what we talked about heading into
• 1:09
  Speaker 3: last week and go over what happened. And there are
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: a couple of things I do want to bring up
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: that I think are very important with respect to last
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: week that hopefully we can learn from. And tomorrow again
• 1:26
  Speaker 3: is when we get into week six, and there's quite
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: a lot to discuss, quite a lot of deep dives
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: to get into. And you'll see the tool probably update.
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: I mean it might have updated now, actually, but let's
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: not refresh it because if I do refresh it, then
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: it'll get rid of week five. So let's kind of
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: keep it the way it is right now. And if
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: it did update, then as a matter of fact, let
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: me just see it just for the hell of it
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: on another tab. If it updated yet, and let's see, No,
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: it did not update. Yeah, I don't believe.
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: Let me just.
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: Message him hopefully to update it and then I will
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: get back to you guys. One second.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Mm hmmm please.
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: Second. M h.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: M hm.
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: He is fresh fresh uh.
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: Uh m hm m m m m m m hmm.
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: So let's take a look at week five now. As
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: I mentioned heading into last week, first of all, we
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: wanted to separate the difference between a single pick and
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: double pick pools and let's just get started. So the
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: clearly the best play in both single picks and in
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: double picks was Arizona. Their EV was almost one, actually
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: a little bit higher, and they had no future value.
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: And you found out why they had no future value
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: because they stink, okay, And it was a weird situation
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: with respect to scarcity. Now, as I mentioned heading into
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: last week, last week was the first week where you
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: didn't have the opportunity to take who you wanted necessarily
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: because you might have used them before. And I was
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: very fortunate that there were entries that I had already
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: used Arizona that was in week one. In week two
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: that which we discussed, because otherwise, if I had Arizona available.
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: I mean I certainly would have used them. There was
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: certainly the top pick, you know, in both single picks
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: and in double pick pools. The next one in single picks,
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: which I actually liked quite a bit, was de Choit.
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: I thought that they were very very solid. They did
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: have future value, but I thought that their ev was
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: strong enough to justify them in in single pick pools,
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't play share of them, and I didn't in
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: any of the double pick pools. But that was that.
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: So let's talk about well, I'm going to get to
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: Buffalo and the Rams in a second. The next one
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: that we talked about were the Cults and the Colts
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: I thought were very very good in both doubles and singles.
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: Definitely the top, but I made the cold second tier
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: in doubles well two point five x tier in doubles.
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: We'll get to the top ones in a minute. And
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: I thought they were very very reasonable. And then in
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: single pick pools, especially with the Rams losing, I thought
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: the culture pretty reasonable as well. Let's talk about the
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: two real big double pickpool plays that I recommended, which
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: worked out swimmingly if you had, if you had anything,
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: you to do them. And those were in Minnesota and
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: the Saints. And it's very important to distinguish between what
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: are good plays when there are only single picks to
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: be made throughout the season, and what picks are good
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: to make when you are going to be forced to
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: make double picks in week's eleven, Week twelve and beyond,
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: and in those types of pools. As we've discussed, it's
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: very important to maximize future value and try to get
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: all these bum teams out of there. And I thought
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: at the Saints and the Vikings were both very very
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: strong plays. I actually put them ahead of everybody else
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: in doubles with the exception of Arizona. Minnesota was very
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: very sketchy all the way to the end. They ended
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: up pulling it out, and the Saints, despite some early troubles,
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: they actually won pretty comfortably at the end over the Giants.
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: So if you did have it in you to follow
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: along and play those two, you could have some very
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: very strong entries right now in some of those big
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: splash pools with a lot of double picks, the Ship
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: and Nation pool, et cetera. The other one that I
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: thought was a good play in doubles and only in
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: doubles was Seattle. I had them just kind of below
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: those others, and if you got all the way down
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: to Seattle, you got punished. They fumbled the ball in
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: their last drive and leading to a Tampa winner. So
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: let's talk about the other teams. First of all, Buffalo.
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: Buffalo was completely unplayable in all formats, in singles and
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: in doubles, and just the problem was was they were
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: just so usable every one hundred different spots throughout the season.
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: So I thought Buffalo was I didn't use them for
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: a penny, and hopefully you guys followed along with that.
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: They actually went down. But the real team I wanted
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: to discuss here are the Rams. Now, for those of
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: you that know me back from poker and back from
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: DFS and whatever, you know that this is true. But
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: I promise you that I am not the person to
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: say either I told you so or something was a
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: really bad play after the fact. Okay, knowing the results,
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: I will tell you for your education and for you
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: learning how this stuff works. The Rams were objectively an
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: atrocious play. Last Okay, I was completely shocked that so
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: many people went and played them. They violated just one
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: of the clearest rules in Survivor Pool. Okay, First, a
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: couple of things. First of all, they were a Thursday game. Now,
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: what's wrong with that? Okay, So there's nothing wrong with
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: the Thursday game per se, except that if you play
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: the Thursday game, you're acting first. Okay. And for those
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: of you that know anything about poker back in the day, okay,
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: it's a really big edge to be able to act last.
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: And the most amount of information you have at your disposal,
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: the better. And one of the benefits of not playing
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: a team on Thursday is that you get to see
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: what happens and as a result, you get to adjust
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: your entries for the weekend and like so, for example,
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: since the Rams went down at thirty percent ownership or whatever,
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: you then could have adjusted your previous you're following you know,
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: entries based on that information. So uh not for no
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: other reason, But let me just say this, if you're
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: gonna play a Thursday game, and it better be at
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: a tremendously good play because you are giving up that
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: positional edge by not being able to adjust. But more
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: to the point, their ev was no better than like
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: anybody else, and they have this like nuts spot in
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: week nine. Now again, this map. You know, obviously it
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: could use some use some uh some updating and whatever
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: it is. But they are the clear top choice, maybe
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: tied with Green Bay. Okay, but in week nine, there
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: is just no reason to burn them. I mean, listen,
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: if you didn't have Arizona, I mean, there were so
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: many other things you could do. Play freaking Detroit, you
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: know what I mean, Like, uh, it's not that the
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: it's not that they just have future value. They had
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: like elite future value. All right, So so this was
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: this was really bad. Okay, I have to say, and
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: hopefully you guys didn't play that, and in any case,
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: we'll learn in the future. So let's go down and
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: let's look at some others, see what else happened. There
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: were some people that went with the with the Eagles.
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: I don't I just I shouldn't say I don't get it.
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: I'm just gonna say I do get it. Just people
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: play that. I mean, this is just not a good play.
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: It's objectively not a good play. Their ev was like
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: was like sketchy, and they have just just light years
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: of future value. This is this is a pay the
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: right play. I honestly believe that, and I have to
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: say that there are a lot of people in my
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: in some of the bigger pools, like in the circle
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: pools and the other stuff, that like leveled themselves and
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: decided they were going to play the Eagles, I mean,
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: for no reason. And they didn't want to play Minnesota
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: at basically the same with basically the same winning chances
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: and no future value. But they had no problem just
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: jamming the Eagles with zillions of future value. So that
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: that's paying the rate. That's just bad. Chargers couldn't quite
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: get to that. Dallas couldn't quite get to that. And
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: that's pretty much the summer.
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: What happens with the pools. It doesn't matter which pools
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: you're in. I mean, I would say that fifty percent
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: of the pool got decimated last week, and in most
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: pools you're all you're down to the final like one third. Okay, now,
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: it may seem as though the pools got decimated, but
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: quite honestly, through week five we're tracking pretty much the
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: same as we have been in most pools in most seasons.
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: It's just that it just all happened that once in
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: week five, and everybody got away with murder. In weeks
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: one through four, you know, with not much just with
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: not much carnage. So we're really where we're supposed to
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: be in week number five or through week number five.
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: Let me just see.
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: Something mm hmm, let's see if.
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: No. Week five still is not updated yet. But Michelle,
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna be on this. I will definitely, uh definitely
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: up there overnight. I guess that's pretty much all that
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: I had, except again, give you kind of like the schedule.
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: You know, tomorrow four pm, we're gonna get into week six.
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: I want to take a quick look, all right, we'll
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: take a quick So week six, you're gonna have like
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: a couple of different buckets here. You're gonna have Green
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: Bay that's a billion point five and they're a billion
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: point favorite, but you're gonna be able to use them
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: like a zillion different ways after this, and it's gonna
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: be a question of whether the ev generated from this
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: week is enough to you know, to make up for
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: giving up a lot of future value. They're gonna have
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: this kind of bucket of seven point favorites, like the Eagles,
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: the Broncos, not Vegas. There are only four and a half. Again,
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: this will update, but you have the Eagles, the Broncos,
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: the Rams, they're all gonna be about seven and they're
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: gonna have some moderate future value. Then you're gonna have
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: a bunch of four and a half point favorites like
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: the Raiders, Steelers, the Commanders they're gonna be like four
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: and a half and the Chargers are gonna be a
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: little bit below them. H So you're gonna have again
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: a decision between these different buckets and within those buckets,
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: how you play it. I guess that's pretty much all
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: that I had. So if you learn nothing else, please
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: you know like it. There are there are advanced mistakes
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: you can make, and there are beginner mistakes that you
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: can make. The Rams mistake I really think was a
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: beginner mistake. I think the Eagles mistake was a beginner mistake.
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: I really do. And if I'll give you one more
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: bit of advice for those of you are watching this
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: for free and not, you know, going through the deep
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: dive with us tomorrow, the big mistake that people make
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: in Survivor is a human mistake. It's it's the fact
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: that they want to just survive. And even if you
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: can be a little aggressive in Reach one, two, three, four,
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: the mistake people make is to take your foot off
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: the gas. And yes, there's going to be a point
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: where you play you know, high own teams you know
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: that are big favorites. But most people, even though they're
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: willing to take gambles a little bit earlier, they give
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: up on pushing that that gas pedal too early. And
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: if i'll give you guys one bit of advice that
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: are not part of the premium show, once you're thinking
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: of taking your foot off the gas, you should probably
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: put it on a little bit harder. It's kind of
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: like poker, you know, where you know to play aggressively
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: near the bubble, but then some people when they get there,
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: they kind of tien up a little bit. You should
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: always play aggressively for a little bit longer than you
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: think you should. Okay, that's pretty much all I have
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: for today. We will you know, reset these this this
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: tool hopefully by the end of the evening, hopefully before that,
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: and we'll have a lot to deep dive tomorrow. And
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: let me see any questions here you say, what about
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: d Smith, No idea what that means? That's gonna do it?
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: Good luck, everybody,