Latest / The Kenny Report / The Kenny Report | 10 June

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The Kenny Report | 10 June · The Kenny Report

0:00
Speaker 1: Live from the Sky New Center. This is the Kenny Report.
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Speaker 2: Good evening, Welcome, I'm Chris Ulman, sitting in for Chris Kenny.
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Speaker 2: This week. Coming up, the US attacks Iran as the
0:13
Speaker 2: war flares again urban war on the streets of Belfast
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Speaker 2: and the rise and rise of one nation. The United
0:26
Speaker 2: States is proving yet again that wars are easier to
0:29
Speaker 2: start than to finish. In the words of General David
0:32
Speaker 2: Petraeus as he worked to dig America out of the
0:35
Speaker 2: Second Gulf War, tell me how this ends from here?
0:39
Speaker 2: There is no end in sight to this Third Golf War.
0:44
Speaker 2: The US has hit back at Iran after it down
0:46
Speaker 2: one of its helicopters, setting back the peace deal. Donald
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Speaker 2: Trump so desperately wants to land where in the final
0:54
Speaker 2: throes of what will be a very very good deal,
0:57
Speaker 2: this street.
0:57
Speaker 3: Will open up right away.
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Speaker 2: It'll open up immediately upon signing, which could be in
1:01
Speaker 2: two or three days. The President, who promised to end
1:06
Speaker 2: the forever wars, is now trapped in one of his
1:08
Speaker 2: own making. Finding an off ramp is made harder by
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Speaker 2: the fact that he and his ally Benjamin net Yahoo
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Speaker 2: have mapped very different destinations. Israel has unfinished business with Iran.
1:21
Speaker 2: It's not ready to end this war for Jerusalem. The
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Speaker 2: ruling regime in Tehran remains an existential threat as long
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Speaker 2: as it lives. It's sworn to the destruction of Israel
1:31
Speaker 2: and has spent decades building and financing the network of
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Speaker 2: proxies that surround the Jewish state. If Israel cannot force
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Speaker 2: regime change, it will settle for crippling Iran's economy, destroying
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Speaker 2: its energy in water systems, and rendering it a failed state,
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Speaker 2: leaving it to civil war and two weak to be
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Speaker 2: a threat for a generation. Trump's instincts and his base
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Speaker 2: pull him towards a deal, even and uncomfortable one. Iran
1:59
Speaker 2: can see this and is working to exploit it. Tehran
2:02
Speaker 2: is in no hurry and senses a once impossible goal
2:06
Speaker 2: might be inside an America that loses the appetite to
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Speaker 2: fight alongside Israel, and Iran can now see the limits
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Speaker 2: of its opponent's willingness to wage war. Its adversaries don't
2:17
Speaker 2: want to put boots on the ground and risk even
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Speaker 2: minimal casualties. It, by contrast, is prepared to sacrifice its
2:25
Speaker 2: entire population if it brings about the destruction of Israel.
2:29
Speaker 2: In this sense, the war is truly asymmetric. In the
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Speaker 2: battle of wills, only Iran and Israel are evenly matched.
2:37
Speaker 2: The US is outgunned. Another disturbing message was sent when
2:41
Speaker 2: Iran launched strikes against Israel in response to attacks on
2:45
Speaker 2: Hesbalah in Lebanon. That is a significant shift. Iran is
2:49
Speaker 2: now longer merely backing proxies. It's threatening direct retaliation for
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Speaker 2: attax on them. It now seeks to limit Israel's ability
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Speaker 2: to defend itself and use used the American President's eagerness
3:02
Speaker 2: to quit the battlefield and stay Israel's hand. How did
3:06
Speaker 2: it come to this again? We're seeing the problem that's
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Speaker 2: haunted the United States since Vietnam, turning overwhelming military might
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Speaker 2: into lasting strategic victory. If a broken and bad Iran
3:19
Speaker 2: can still threaten the world's energy supply and hold the
3:22
Speaker 2: global economy hostage, then it's not losing this war. We
3:26
Speaker 2: are and urban warfare has returned to the streets of Belfast.
3:43
Speaker 2: This time the battle is not between Protestants and Catholics,
3:45
Speaker 2: but between locals and immigrants. The horrific stabbing of a
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Speaker 2: man in North Belfast has sparked days of unrest a
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Speaker 2: thirty year old Sudanese man has been charged with attempted
3:56
Speaker 2: murder and anti immigration protests then erupted across the city.
4:00
Speaker 2: Cars were burned, homes were attacked, police came under assault.
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Speaker 2: Beneath the violence lies a deeper fear. Many residents feel
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Speaker 2: their losing control of their communities, their culture, and their future.
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Speaker 2: It's a view now taking hold in all Western countries
4:15
Speaker 2: where mass migration is colliding with falling living standards, the
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Speaker 2: sense that migration is making life harder and tearing at
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Speaker 2: the fabric of societies. Whether that view is right or
4:25
Speaker 2: wrong matters less politically than the fact that millions across
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Speaker 2: the Western world increasingly believe it and the.
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Speaker 4: Home the home, the home, no home, Send them your.
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Speaker 1: Name on your name.
4:44
Speaker 2: The same fears and frustrations and fury at the political
4:47
Speaker 2: class is the fuel driving the surge in once One
4:51
Speaker 2: nation here and the party is making the most of
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Speaker 2: its moment in the spotlight. The Albanzi government clearly recognizes
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Speaker 2: the threat, otherwise Labor not be asking its members for
5:01
Speaker 2: donations to fund the fight against Pauline Hansen and her insurgents.
5:06
Speaker 2: One nation is returning fire with a microdonation push of
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Speaker 2: its own fire the liar and donations for that are
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Speaker 2: rolling in. It now claims to be halfway to its
5:16
Speaker 2: goal of raising a million dollars for a nationwide advertising campaign,
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Speaker 2: So something extraordinary is happening. The major political battleground is
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Speaker 2: now being mapped out between Labor and One Nation. Somewhere
5:29
Speaker 2: along the way, the Liberal and National parties became roadkill.
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Speaker 2: The opposition has been rendered irrelevant and runs the risk
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Speaker 2: of being relegated to history. Nothing is settled. Two years
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Speaker 2: are left to run before the next federal election. Time
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Speaker 2: bad choices and lack of discipline could derail One Nation,
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Speaker 2: but momentum and enthusiasm matter in politics, and right now
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Speaker 2: One Nation is on a roll. But from Tehran to
5:58
Speaker 2: belfasta Canberra, the same question and keeps surfacing where we
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Speaker 2: headed and who the hell is in charge? And now
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Speaker 2: joined by Barnaby Joyce from One Nation. Welcome Chris.
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Speaker 3: It's an absolute pleasure being on your show, mate's pleasure
6:17
Speaker 3: being on Christmas show.
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Speaker 2: The other one, not the Kenny hit, So on this one.
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Speaker 2: How would you mark yourself in the last week? Mate,
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Speaker 2: you're a fairly fair minded person. What do you think
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Speaker 2: your own performance has been live. What would you give
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Speaker 2: yourself out of ten?
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Speaker 3: Look, I know where people are coming there with the
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Speaker 3: permanent resident issue, but that I mark myself maybe five
6:37
Speaker 3: out of ten. But I've marked the result for the
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Speaker 3: one nation much much higher because it shows how febrile
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Speaker 3: and concerned people are, you know, like, oh no, Barnaby's
6:46
Speaker 3: got a question wrongly corrected in the same interview. But look, Jumbo,
6:50
Speaker 3: I've feather, I've said that we can fight out with.
6:53
Speaker 3: You know, Jumbo ain't going to fly anywhere on that feather.
6:57
Speaker 3: It's we're going to realize it's it's a bigger issue
6:59
Speaker 3: than that.
7:00
Speaker 2: You should expect scrutiny though, that comes with your rise
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Speaker 2: in power, so you will expect a lot more of this.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, of course, yeah we will. And we've got a
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Speaker 3: rise to the rise to the challenge, and you expect
7:13
Speaker 3: more at times where the answer is less than perfect.
7:16
Speaker 3: And that's so there you go. There's your front page
7:19
Speaker 3: for tomorrow. But that's because we've got like four research officers.
7:24
Speaker 3: The Labor Party has close to five hundred I'll repeat that,
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Speaker 3: five hundred, well over one hundred times what we have,
7:31
Speaker 3: and the Liberal Party has got close to one hundred.
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Speaker 3: So we don't have the resources that the major parties do,
7:37
Speaker 3: but people are expecting and we have to play the
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Speaker 3: major party game, and that means at times I'd rather
7:44
Speaker 3: be circumspected about an answer and corrected than just hope
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Speaker 3: that no one else ever checks.
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Speaker 2: Now, everyone, of course, is trying to define what it
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Speaker 2: is that's fueling one nation. What do you think it is?
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Speaker 2: What are people telling you? What are they angry and
7:59
Speaker 2: frustrated about?
8:00
Speaker 3: Out the lack of potential that australiad to write that
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Speaker 3: should have risen to the fact that we've got oil, gas, cattle, gold,
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Speaker 3: balk side cotton, we've got it all. We've got rivers,
8:13
Speaker 3: we've got the Great Barriery if we've got tourism. Yet
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Speaker 3: per capita we've been getting poorer and our debt's been
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Speaker 3: getting bigger, and instead of trying to make Australia powerful
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Speaker 3: and increase the standard of living for all, for the
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Speaker 3: betterment of all, we've gone on frolics. You know, we're
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Speaker 3: going to change the weather, we're going to change the climate,
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Speaker 3: and you know that this is all rubbish and getting
8:34
Speaker 3: sucked into the sort of philosophical butterfly chasing issue is
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Speaker 3: that have left the Australian people behind with the highest
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Speaker 3: cost of the incredible cost of living burden where people
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Speaker 3: are basically unable to get a house. And they say
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Speaker 3: you're a party of grievance. Well, in a way yes,
8:50
Speaker 3: because there's a lot to have a grievance about, and
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Speaker 3: people have just come to this conclusion that the show
8:58
Speaker 3: has to be shaken up and they look to one
9:01
Speaker 3: nation and say you're not perfect, but we're going to
9:05
Speaker 3: give you a go and if you let's see how
9:08
Speaker 3: you go. And I'm hoping that you know we've got
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Speaker 3: we're bringing good candidates like David Farley is a good candidate.
9:14
Speaker 3: Every the other day and they got stuck to to
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Speaker 3: center a tyron ridden I found out he started coming
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Speaker 3: from nothing and build up to over two hundred million
9:22
Speaker 3: dollar turnover. That's a pretty handy sort of guy to
9:25
Speaker 3: have in Parliament.
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Speaker 2: So you've identified all of the questions. What are the answers?
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Speaker 3: Well, the answers is, first of all, get rid of
9:31
Speaker 3: the Climate Change Department completely and climate change policy. Really
9:36
Speaker 3: screw down on immigration into Australia, so that we've got
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Speaker 3: a more of a stock take of what Australia needs
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Speaker 3: and be just not embarrassed about where they come from.
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Speaker 3: If they come from a fibrill part of the world,
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Speaker 3: then they just don't come. And we've got to make
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Speaker 3: sure that we have a stock take of what we
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Speaker 3: actually need and where we need them. We can't be
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Speaker 3: bringing in the population of canber each year. We haven't
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Speaker 3: built houses, haven't built the schools, haven't built the universities,
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Speaker 3: having built the dams, We've got to build real seed stock,
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Speaker 3: not pretend seed stock, real asset seedstock. And that's such
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Speaker 3: things as dams, ports, freightline, so things that actually drive
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Speaker 3: in economy forward. We've got to release the get off
10:15
Speaker 3: the throats of small business. With these crazy capl gainst exchanges.
10:20
Speaker 3: Small business drives entrepreneurship. Small businesses become big businesses and
10:25
Speaker 3: that's where you get your tax revenue from. You've got
10:27
Speaker 3: to understand that if you want to spend money on
10:29
Speaker 3: your P and L as expenses, then you've got to
10:32
Speaker 3: work your balanshing your assets. Otherwise you just grow your liability.
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Speaker 2: So you tell us what's happening with your branches. There's
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Speaker 2: been a surge of interest, is it turning into boots
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Speaker 2: on the ground now people actually joining the movement.
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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, it's it's awesome the number of people who
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Speaker 3: are joining up. It's incredible. People who were in previous
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Speaker 3: political parties, whether it was the NATS that lives or Labor,
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Speaker 3: people have never been in a political party must have
10:59
Speaker 3: met that. No, one haven't met anybody from the Greens
11:01
Speaker 3: come to one ag yet, but certainly have from Labor.
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Speaker 3: I certainly have from Labors, certainly have from the Nats.
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Speaker 3: Heaps to the Nats. And what we're seeing is just
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Speaker 3: a new movement and it's a dynamic thing. I mean,
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Speaker 3: I don't know what party Cicero is in, but all
11:18
Speaker 3: I know is that party's gone, that faction has gone.
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Speaker 3: Things evolved, things change. Don't be scared of it. Move
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Speaker 3: with it.
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Speaker 2: And what do you intend to do to try and
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Speaker 2: build this night and send you out and about everywhere.
11:28
Speaker 2: Are you intending, by the way, to run in New
11:30
Speaker 2: England again? You said you would not.
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Speaker 3: No. What I've tried to be completely clear on is
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Speaker 3: I will listen to the requirements of the party, but
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Speaker 3: in the most important group as to whether I run
11:41
Speaker 3: for New England's New England. Otherwise New England might if
11:44
Speaker 3: I run from New England, I might show me the
11:46
Speaker 3: door and say I think we've had enough of you,
11:48
Speaker 3: and I understand that that's the ticket you buy. But
11:52
Speaker 3: if we have quite a number of people obviously going
11:55
Speaker 3: to be in the House Representatives, then we're going to
11:57
Speaker 3: need someone who has been in the leadership position the
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Speaker 3: House of Representatives to make sure that that we give
12:04
Speaker 3: the Australian people the proper control and oversight that the
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Speaker 3: Australian people would expect.
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Speaker 2: Well, I saw you in Walker, which of course is
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Speaker 2: in your Electric and the people there were urging you
12:11
Speaker 2: at the bar to run. Are you hearing that from
12:13
Speaker 2: your Electric everywhere I go? Mark you down?
12:18
Speaker 1: Yes?
12:18
Speaker 2: Then for only again New England.
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Speaker 3: I just you know, I don't want to. I'm just
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Speaker 3: I'm trying to be straight with people. Initially said I'd
12:25
Speaker 3: run for the Senate, but I am getting a lot
12:27
Speaker 3: of pressure up from my seat to run from you
12:29
Speaker 3: in one again.
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Speaker 2: Yes, Arnaby Joyce, We've watched with great interest.
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Speaker 3: Thank you, You're welcome.
12:36
Speaker 2: Well. Fighting has flared again in the Middle East. The
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Speaker 2: US has struck Iran after one of its helicopters was downed,
12:43
Speaker 2: and Iran has launched a counter attack on the US
12:45
Speaker 2: basis in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahran joining me now is
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Speaker 2: Strategic Analysis Australia Director Michael Shubridge. And Michael, doesn't look
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Speaker 2: like there's any end in sight to this.
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Speaker 5: War, no, Chris, It's really a four call on a
13:01
Speaker 5: conflict at the moment. So there's the US in Iran
13:04
Speaker 5: and they're in an exchange of fire. Now we can
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Speaker 5: talk about does that escalate, But the other two actors
13:11
Speaker 5: are has Bola and Israel, and that conflict in southern
13:15
Speaker 5: Lebanon shows no sign of slowing down. Has Bolla got
13:19
Speaker 5: a militant into northern Israel overnight and it continues to
13:23
Speaker 5: fire missiles and drones into northern Israel and the Israeli
13:28
Speaker 5: militaries operating deep into southern Lebanon. So the most concerning
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Speaker 5: new development though, is this escalating exchange of fire between
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Speaker 5: the US and Iran.
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Speaker 2: We've seen around though attack Israel for what was going
13:44
Speaker 2: on in Lebanon. That is new. So that is a
13:49
Speaker 2: big shift on its policy in the past.
13:52
Speaker 5: Yes, that's right, christ has Bolla has acted on Iran's
13:57
Speaker 5: behalf before, in fact, has Bolla joined the war or
14:00
Speaker 5: before the ceasefire and that led to this conflict we
14:04
Speaker 5: now see in southern Lebanon. But it is a new
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Speaker 5: development for Iran to attack Israel directly in support of Hezbola,
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Speaker 5: and of course the Hooties attacked Israel directly also in
14:16
Speaker 5: support of Hesbola.
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Speaker 2: Again, if the Hoothies get involved too, we will see
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Speaker 2: perhaps the closure of another strait, and that one on
14:23
Speaker 2: the Red Sea, which would make the energy crisis even worse.
14:28
Speaker 5: Yes, And I don't think the hoodies want to do that,
14:31
Speaker 5: but they're just reminding everybody that they have the power
14:35
Speaker 5: to do that. I think that's designed to put more
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Speaker 5: pressure on the US to come to terms with Iran.
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Speaker 2: Do you think that Iran sees the opportunity now which
14:45
Speaker 2: once we would have only dreamed of, of tearing Israel
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Speaker 2: and the United States apart if Israel wants to fight
14:53
Speaker 2: on and the US wants to get out.
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Speaker 3: Yes, I do.
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Speaker 5: And I think that phone call that we've all heard
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Speaker 5: about between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyaho where President
15:04
Speaker 5: Trump said he was crazy and then followed up with
15:07
Speaker 5: another call telling Netanyaho not to respond to the Iranian
15:12
Speaker 5: attack on Israel. Of course Israel did. It was always
15:14
Speaker 5: going to that shows the potential for a growing distance
15:19
Speaker 5: between America and Israel. That would be an Iranian goal.
15:23
Speaker 2: Well, this is the dilemma of different objectives, though, isn't it,
15:25
Speaker 2: And right from the outset that Israel and the United
15:27
Speaker 2: States clearly had different objectives.
15:30
Speaker 5: Yes, and Israel clearly doesn't think the war is over.
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Speaker 5: It thinks there's more to do inside Iran, more damage
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Speaker 5: to do to the regime, and it wants to continue
15:41
Speaker 5: its war against Hasbola. Because those attacks into northern Israel,
15:46
Speaker 5: there are e Lebanese people displaced, about a million of them,
15:48
Speaker 5: but there are people out of northern Israel displaced as well,
15:51
Speaker 5: So that's Israeli thinking. President Trump, though, still seems to
15:56
Speaker 5: think that these drawn out negotiations might go somewhere, and
16:01
Speaker 5: he's been keeping the US military on alesh. If he
16:04
Speaker 5: gets frustrated, that could change quickly.
16:06
Speaker 2: Wouldn't Iran want to keep this strung out all the
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Speaker 2: way at least until the elections in the United States
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Speaker 2: till the midterms.
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Speaker 5: Probably, although really the economic damage to the global economy
16:18
Speaker 5: is going to last even if some opening of the
16:22
Speaker 5: strait happens tomorrow, which is very unlikely. But I think
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Speaker 5: Iran thinks it's got more leverage now and it was
16:31
Speaker 5: willing to risk military confrontation flying that Shahad close to
16:35
Speaker 5: the Apache helicopter and probably having it go down because
16:40
Speaker 5: of a collision. That sha Hat is not an air
16:42
Speaker 5: to wear weapon, so the Arabians have been willing to
16:45
Speaker 5: risk military confrontation to control the strait. That doesn't tell
16:49
Speaker 5: me they're in a hurry to get some deal.
16:51
Speaker 2: When you look at this extensive battlefield, the thing that
16:54
Speaker 2: strikes me is that Israel hasn't even beat a mus
16:57
Speaker 2: yet and still fighting Hezbollah obviously and Iran. So the
17:01
Speaker 2: object of the first war hasn't been met.
17:05
Speaker 5: And I think this rising anger inside the Israeli population
17:09
Speaker 5: around that because really Israel is fighting on one front
17:14
Speaker 5: with Hamas on another front deep in southern Lebanon against Hasbola,
17:19
Speaker 5: and the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon that's happened for
17:24
Speaker 5: years before ended up going nowhere, and now there looks
17:28
Speaker 5: like a resumption of direct conflict with Iran Israel is
17:32
Speaker 5: a real potential. So the Israeli population has been supporting
17:37
Speaker 5: its military in pretty long drawn out wars with inconclusive gains.
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Speaker 2: So far Michael, how can Israel keep this tempo up?
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Speaker 5: It is remarkable. I mean it says the Israeli population
17:52
Speaker 5: is extremely stoic. Most of its military are reservists. They
17:56
Speaker 5: have day jobs. They're not usually spending all their time
18:00
Speaker 5: fighting Hamas and has Boller and preparing to resume conflict
18:04
Speaker 5: with Iran. So the strain on Israeli society is enormous
18:09
Speaker 5: and the Israeli economy. We hear a lot about the
18:12
Speaker 5: effects on the global economy and on Iran, but the
18:15
Speaker 5: effects on Israeli economically just another pressure and it's all
18:20
Speaker 5: leading up to an election.
18:22
Speaker 2: Michael Schubridge, thank you, Thanks Chris, and coming up as
18:27
Speaker 2: the war in the Gulf rolls on, are the prices
18:30
Speaker 2: of petrol and diesel about to surge again? Or when
18:38
Speaker 2: the Third Gulf War began? I went searching for the
18:40
Speaker 2: best information on what the closure of the Australa for
18:43
Speaker 2: Blues would mean for fuel supplies to Australia. I found
18:47
Speaker 2: it in the toolbox of a company called Kepler Global
18:50
Speaker 2: Data and Analytics outfit that provides real time tracking and
18:53
Speaker 2: intelligence for physical commodities, maritime shipping, and energy markets. And
18:57
Speaker 2: that was when Skyview has first heard from Kepler's man
19:00
Speaker 2: in Dubai, Matt Stanley or Matt, welcome back. The last
19:03
Speaker 2: time we spoke, you were actually under attack, Dubai was
19:07
Speaker 2: under attack. What's the feeling like now when the shooting
19:09
Speaker 2: has started again.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, evening, Chris, Thanks having me back. Good to see you. Look,
19:15
Speaker 1: it's it's one of I would say, sort of a
19:18
Speaker 1: bit of resentment. A little complacency has has sort of
19:24
Speaker 1: ebbed away within the confidence of the region, not do
19:26
Speaker 1: by itself. You know, the city is still standing strong
19:30
Speaker 1: and it will endure, but the region in general is
19:33
Speaker 1: just certainly a lot more, a lot more looking over
19:36
Speaker 1: the shoulder, a lot less, like I said, complacency around
19:40
Speaker 1: around the around the city, but a lot of a
19:42
Speaker 1: lot of still here. Some have left, but the vast
19:45
Speaker 1: majority is still here.
19:46
Speaker 2: Matt. We keep hearing that the longer this war goes
19:48
Speaker 2: on and longer that fuel is locked away inside the gulf,
19:52
Speaker 2: that the worst things will get. The date seems to
19:55
Speaker 2: keep shifting forward. Is the world going to get to
19:58
Speaker 2: a stage where that comes material and we'll start to
20:01
Speaker 2: feel the pain again at the petrol pump?
20:05
Speaker 1: Look, I think it's a great question, Chris, and I
20:07
Speaker 1: think it's remarkable that after over one hundred days of conflict,
20:12
Speaker 1: we're discussing and the market is discussing demand weakness rather
20:16
Speaker 1: than supply collapse. What's happened is that the market is
20:22
Speaker 1: oil markets especially are very very quick to adapt. New
20:26
Speaker 1: trade flows emerge, new trade patterns emerge. It just becomes
20:30
Speaker 1: more expensive. And I think I said I said that
20:32
Speaker 1: to you last time I was on at the end
20:34
Speaker 1: of March, whenever it was it seems a distant memory.
20:36
Speaker 1: Go now, things are stable, the market is relatively well supplied.
20:42
Speaker 1: It's living on anxiety. But strategic reserves and storage have
20:46
Speaker 1: done what they're supposed to do, which is during times
20:49
Speaker 1: of crisis, they have supplied markets where they've needed it.
20:54
Speaker 1: Resupply of that reserve is a different question. But the
20:58
Speaker 1: narrative on the trading flaws the guys I'm talking to,
21:03
Speaker 1: the discussion has moved to what happens when all this
21:06
Speaker 1: oil comes back, what happens to demand. That's that's the
21:08
Speaker 1: way the conversation has shifted in a relatively short amount
21:11
Speaker 1: of time.
21:12
Speaker 2: And there's no way of knowing when that might actually happen,
21:15
Speaker 2: because it doesn't look to me like Iran wants.
21:17
Speaker 1: This war to end in a hurry, sadly not, but
21:21
Speaker 1: it does seem to be, you know, being on the
21:23
Speaker 1: ground here, being in the Middle East. You know, when
21:27
Speaker 1: the war first started, the conflict first broke out, it
21:30
Speaker 1: was every every country within the GCC was a target. Katar, Saudi,
21:35
Speaker 1: the UAE, especially Fujai. Report was getting here Jebalali. You know,
21:38
Speaker 1: two days after I spoke to you at Kruse miss
21:41
Speaker 1: I was intercepted about three miles from where I live,
21:43
Speaker 1: and it was a state of shock that most people
21:46
Speaker 1: are in sadly now, not from a non selfish point
21:50
Speaker 1: of view. It seems to be the bar Anqua and
21:53
Speaker 1: Jordan had taken the vast majority of the retaliatory strikes
21:57
Speaker 1: that Iran have. It's the block Chris that's really causing
22:01
Speaker 1: the economic stress and and the sort of lash outs
22:05
Speaker 1: that we're seeing from Iran right now. But I would
22:07
Speaker 1: say that where where attacks are centered is not on
22:11
Speaker 1: the core GCC. Barrain, Qa and Jordan this morning intercensed
22:16
Speaker 1: six missiles overhead, So that seems to be where attacks
22:20
Speaker 1: are targeted right now.
22:21
Speaker 2: And matter are we're looking in the wrong places. We
22:23
Speaker 2: all got a lesson in what comes out of a
22:25
Speaker 2: barrel of oil? Right, it's not just the stuff that
22:26
Speaker 2: runs your car or a plane. It's there about six
22:30
Speaker 2: thousand different products. Are we going to see shortages of
22:33
Speaker 2: things like sulfur and with gas as well with fertilizer.
22:38
Speaker 1: Yeah, Look, we've all become chemists, Chris, haven't we? And
22:40
Speaker 1: everyone seems to be sort of yearning for that. I
22:42
Speaker 1: wish I listened more in chemistry lesson, But it is
22:45
Speaker 1: amazing how you know how how for granted we all
22:48
Speaker 1: turning up at the fore court and filling up your
22:50
Speaker 1: car and it was never a concern.
22:53
Speaker 3: Yeah.
22:54
Speaker 1: Look, I think that perhaps people's perception of how easy
22:59
Speaker 1: things work are in terms of energy flows has has
23:02
Speaker 1: been heightened and people are looking more Okay, where is
23:05
Speaker 1: that coming from? I would I would argue that what
23:08
Speaker 1: has happened is businesses have become more efficient, maybe to
23:13
Speaker 1: the to the detriment of employment figures that maybe we'll
23:15
Speaker 1: see come out and economic indicators going forward. But yeah,
23:19
Speaker 1: for sure. The big one for me, which is quite
23:22
Speaker 1: not funny, but is helium. You know, simply the world's
23:25
Speaker 1: biggest supply of helium, which goes into making micro chips,
23:30
Speaker 1: which goes into making pharmaceutical goods for MRI scans, these
23:34
Speaker 1: kind of things, and no one had any idea that
23:36
Speaker 1: helium was such a fragile products that byproducts have coming
23:40
Speaker 1: out of natural gas. Katar are the world's biggest supplier.
23:43
Speaker 1: Now people are starting to ration, so China are not
23:45
Speaker 1: putting that helium into the into the the you know,
23:49
Speaker 1: the wedding planner balloons and all that kind of stuff
23:52
Speaker 1: is going into the medical sector. So it's it's kind
23:55
Speaker 1: of an interesting sort of byproducts helium that people are
24:00
Speaker 1: now taking a lot more attention to than they used
24:02
Speaker 1: to before.
24:03
Speaker 2: Well, Matte, I also read your newsletters. I know that
24:06
Speaker 2: you're an Arsenal fan. I have to give you this
24:08
Speaker 2: opportunity to celebrate because I understand it's been a big year.
24:12
Speaker 2: Few people, it's taken a long time to get there.
24:15
Speaker 1: It was twenty two years, four months, ten days and yeah, yeah,
24:19
Speaker 1: a little bit, no no, thanks Chris, thanks for giving
24:21
Speaker 1: me that platform. It's been a very good year and
24:25
Speaker 1: it was nice for England to beat New Zealand as well.
24:27
Speaker 1: At the weekend, I did Cricket's my first love, but
24:29
Speaker 1: Arsenal's second a very very close second.
24:31
Speaker 2: Also, as you climb your way back up the ladder, mate,
24:34
Speaker 2: take care, Jeers Chris. That's Matt Stanley from Kepler. Liberal
24:40
Speaker 2: Party president former PM Tony Abbott has urged the Liberals
24:44
Speaker 2: to give Australians a better product. He's pushing the party
24:47
Speaker 2: to seek a mandate at the next election. But with
24:50
Speaker 2: one nation on the march, has time run out on
24:53
Speaker 2: what was this nation's most successful political party? All joining
24:57
Speaker 2: me now is on the desk is columnist Tom Switzerland,
24:59
Speaker 2: also be r on podcast called Switzerland Tom Welcome, good
25:03
Speaker 2: a Chris, Great to be with you. Tony Abbas talking
25:06
Speaker 2: about sharing preferences with one nation, You've also written about this.
25:09
Speaker 2: I mean that's no brainer, isn't it. I think so.
25:12
Speaker 6: But the former Liberal premier in Victoria, Dennis Napthin, is
25:16
Speaker 6: hardly alone when he harbors doubts about forming closer electoral
25:21
Speaker 6: relations with one nation. There is a segment of the
25:23
Speaker 6: Liberal Party that thinks that one nation is beneath them
25:26
Speaker 6: and they should just discriminate.
25:28
Speaker 2: Against some seat by seat.
25:30
Speaker 6: But of course if they did that with one nation's
25:32
Speaker 6: primary vote being above thirty percent, they will just divide
25:37
Speaker 6: the broader center right and that just means that Labor
25:40
Speaker 6: is more likely to be in government for a generation.
25:42
Speaker 2: Isn't The easy answer to that question, which usually gets
25:45
Speaker 2: put by Labor, is where we'll stop taking preferences from
25:48
Speaker 2: one nation when you stop taking them from the Green.
25:50
Speaker 2: What's good for the goose is good for the gander.
25:53
Speaker 6: The Greens are a far left radical party, and as
25:56
Speaker 6: you say, the ALP has no qualms forming a relationship
26:01
Speaker 6: with the Greens in order to win or maintain power.
26:04
Speaker 2: Well, the same logic should prevail here with the two center.
26:07
Speaker 6: Right parties, the Liberals and the Nationals, and as a
26:10
Speaker 6: coalition should join forces with one nation on an electoral
26:14
Speaker 6: issue so that they can defeat Labor.
26:16
Speaker 2: It just goes without saying, Tom, do you think that
26:19
Speaker 2: in some ways Australia is the last cab off the
26:21
Speaker 2: rank when it comes to populist parties from around the
26:23
Speaker 2: Western world. You may attend to these sorts of things,
26:26
Speaker 2: So tell us take us through what's happened in Europe.
26:28
Speaker 6: No, Look, it's not just the United States where Donald
26:30
Speaker 6: Trump has, in the words of Andrenil that distinguished British
26:32
Speaker 6: journalists launched the hostile takeover of the Republican Party, the
26:35
Speaker 6: broadest center right parties across Europe.
26:37
Speaker 2: You think of the.
26:38
Speaker 6: Tories, the Conservatives in Britain, the French Party, the French
26:42
Speaker 6: Republican Party of Charles de Gaul and Jacques Sharak, all
26:48
Speaker 6: across the European continent. Even in Scandinavia, the traditional center
26:51
Speaker 6: right parties are splintering. And what's happening here is that
26:55
Speaker 6: populist movements are on the ascendancy and they're railing against
26:59
Speaker 6: the lablishment. They're railing against the political leads not just
27:03
Speaker 6: on economic issues the costs of living, but also unaffordable
27:07
Speaker 6: and unreliable net zero energy policies, mass immigration, which many
27:12
Speaker 6: people believe quite rightly is unsustainable.
27:14
Speaker 2: Same factors are happening here, Chris, and in France that
27:18
Speaker 2: could be a very close run election next time around.
27:19
Speaker 2: They've tried to, of course rule the pen out.
27:22
Speaker 6: Well that's conceivable. She may not be the National Rallies candidate,
27:27
Speaker 6: but nevertheless, I think at this stage all the polling
27:30
Speaker 6: evidence indicates that National Rally has a very good chance
27:34
Speaker 6: of winning the presidency next year, and they may even
27:36
Speaker 6: get a majority in the legislature. This is an extraordinary
27:40
Speaker 6: development because the chron can't run again, and the Socialists
27:43
Speaker 6: are completely out of the loop. It's really going to
27:45
Speaker 6: be a race between the so called far right national
27:48
Speaker 6: rally versus the communists.
27:50
Speaker 2: On the left. What do you think is driving it
27:52
Speaker 2: all at base? And we talk about mass migration, those
27:54
Speaker 2: sorts of things. Is it a sense of alienation that's
27:56
Speaker 2: at the heart of it? Is the culture wars? Is
27:58
Speaker 2: it simply an economic issue? Anthony Albanezi would have.
28:01
Speaker 6: Well, Anthony Albanesi is right in the sense that the
28:03
Speaker 6: economy does play a role here. But in the Australian case,
28:06
Speaker 6: the reason why we have a cost living squeeze in
28:09
Speaker 6: part is because of the big government expending policies of labor,
28:12
Speaker 6: which has just encouraged our central bank.
28:15
Speaker 2: To raise rates to Terranian inflation. Now, I think it's
28:18
Speaker 2: not just the economy.
28:19
Speaker 6: It's also cultural issues, immigration energies I mentioned before, but
28:24
Speaker 6: it's also a profound distrust of the political and even
28:28
Speaker 6: media elites in these countries. I think people just want
28:31
Speaker 6: common sense policies against the establishment.
28:35
Speaker 2: Do you think it was supercharged a bit by COVID
28:37
Speaker 2: And I'm thinking here of the institutional elite, the bureaucracies
28:40
Speaker 2: and the things that people can't actually change. They feel
28:43
Speaker 2: a senter of powerlessness over this ever growing mass of
28:47
Speaker 2: the state.
28:47
Speaker 6: I think that's right, and they take it out on
28:49
Speaker 6: the two mainstream parties. And this is happening all across
28:52
Speaker 6: Europe and it's starting to happen here. It's not just
28:54
Speaker 6: a backlash against the coalition parties because remember the coalition,
28:57
Speaker 6: we're in power from twenty thirteen to twenty twenty two
29:01
Speaker 6: and on their watch, many One Nation supporters feel like
29:04
Speaker 6: you left us, you let us down, same mindset.
29:07
Speaker 2: Now One Nation is starting to eat away at the
29:09
Speaker 2: labor vote. So it's a pox on both ours is Chris? Yeah,
29:11
Speaker 2: And you once advised the Liberal Party, what would you
29:14
Speaker 2: advise them to do now, because right now they have
29:16
Speaker 2: absolutely no oxygen even getting heard as well.
29:20
Speaker 3: Well.
29:20
Speaker 6: I'm an amaira of Angus Taylor and Matt Canavan. I
29:22
Speaker 6: think they're good, decent people and they're very sound, But
29:25
Speaker 6: I think it wouldn't hurt if they just apologized to
29:29
Speaker 6: many of their erstwhile supporters who are now supporting One Nation,
29:33
Speaker 6: apologize to them for letting them down, not just during
29:36
Speaker 6: COVID but during the Turmabile years.
29:38
Speaker 2: With the snowy hydro and the crazy energy policies. Do
29:42
Speaker 2: you think that that people are prepared to go back
29:43
Speaker 2: Once they make that mental move to one nation, then
29:47
Speaker 2: what's the reason for any of them to actually shift
29:49
Speaker 2: back book It's hard to know.
29:50
Speaker 6: It'd be crazy to completely write off the coalition. Party's
29:54
Speaker 6: history shows that they have an incredible ability to bounce
29:56
Speaker 6: back and adapt. But at this stage, one nation looks
29:59
Speaker 6: like it is an endurable force. I mean, thirty percent
30:02
Speaker 6: of the primary vote, and this was not just a
30:04
Speaker 6: one off pole. This is a second poll that shows
30:07
Speaker 6: that one nation is leading the Labor government.
30:10
Speaker 2: Look back in history for us too many people think
30:12
Speaker 2: this is kind of the DLP moment for the Liberal Party.
30:15
Speaker 2: But is it worse than that? Is it, in fact
30:17
Speaker 2: the United Australia Party moments with Liberals, when essentially the
30:21
Speaker 2: right hand side of politics fell apart and had to
30:24
Speaker 2: be completely rebuilt by MENSIS.
30:26
Speaker 1: Yeah?
30:26
Speaker 6: Yeah, So the UAP was there from nineteen thirty one
30:29
Speaker 6: to forty five, and they did fall apart in forty
30:34
Speaker 6: five Mensis recreated them, but four years later they bounced
30:38
Speaker 6: back and form government as the Liberals. I think the
30:40
Speaker 6: better analogy is Actually, the labor split in the mid
30:43
Speaker 6: nineteen fifties over the Cold War and communism. The DLP
30:47
Speaker 6: were anti communists, and throughout that period, the fifties and
30:50
Speaker 6: the sixties and even the early seventies, they gave their
30:52
Speaker 6: preferences to the Liberal.
30:54
Speaker 2: Party and the then Country Party.
30:56
Speaker 6: Now Mensis was an outstanding prime minister, but he was
30:59
Speaker 6: held I divided labor. Does the coalition today want to
31:03
Speaker 6: adopt those tactics and be divided and not form an alliance,
31:07
Speaker 6: an electoral alliance with one nation. Well, if they do,
31:09
Speaker 6: that'll just guarantee labor hegemony in Canberra and probably across
31:13
Speaker 6: the States.
31:14
Speaker 3: Right.
31:14
Speaker 2: Well, let's look further afield and go to Iran and
31:16
Speaker 2: the exchange of fire that we've seen now between the
31:19
Speaker 2: US and Iran. This war continues as Donald Trump got
31:23
Speaker 2: himself into a war that he simply cannot get out of.
31:26
Speaker 6: Look, I think the problem here is that both sides,
31:28
Speaker 6: both the Uranians and the Americans, have fundamentally incompatible goals.
31:32
Speaker 6: The Uranians want sanctions relief, they want reparations, they want
31:37
Speaker 6: to have the rights to put a toll on the
31:39
Speaker 6: Straight of Horn moves. Of course, the Americans still want
31:42
Speaker 6: that enriched uranium. They want the Iranian regime to give
31:46
Speaker 6: up its militia proxies as well as its ballistic missiles.
31:50
Speaker 2: I don't see how you can square those circles, Chris. Yeah,
31:52
Speaker 2: And there's clearly division between Israel and the United States now,
31:57
Speaker 2: and Iran would sense an opportunity and that to split
31:59
Speaker 2: the those two forever, which would really isolate Israel, which
32:03
Speaker 2: is becoming an ever more isolated stage.
32:05
Speaker 6: America and Israel have been very close our license the
32:08
Speaker 6: creation of Israel in nineteen forty eight, but it is
32:12
Speaker 6: ironic that I've never seen a this relationship as close
32:15
Speaker 6: as it has been under Natanyahu and Trump. But it's
32:18
Speaker 6: also conceivable it's never been as wide in their attitudes
32:22
Speaker 6: about policy now because they are facing serious challenges.
32:27
Speaker 2: There's a real danger in this for Israel. It's already
32:30
Speaker 2: isolated politically now essentially it's only allies the United States.
32:35
Speaker 2: And you do wonder, like I had a lot of
32:37
Speaker 2: conversations with people who are telling me that they were
32:39
Speaker 2: strategically rearranging all of the Middle East, that after this
32:42
Speaker 2: it would all be better. But there is an alternative
32:45
Speaker 2: point of view, isn't there that after this it could
32:47
Speaker 2: all be a whole lot worse for the state of.
32:49
Speaker 6: And the big challenge for Natya who all his successor,
32:53
Speaker 6: is that unlike the Obami is when there were clear
32:55
Speaker 6: divisions between Israel and the United States over the Iranian
32:59
Speaker 6: Nuclear Deal twenty fifteen, netnya who could go to Congress
33:02
Speaker 6: and get a groundswell of support from Republicans. Primarily, he
33:06
Speaker 6: won't have that luxury if Trump continues to distance himself
33:11
Speaker 6: from israel I.
33:12
Speaker 2: But as you look around the world at the moment,
33:14
Speaker 2: do you think that this all adds up to people's
33:16
Speaker 2: sense of a loss of control, that in fact, that
33:20
Speaker 2: things are completely out of their control, and that's driving
33:24
Speaker 2: a sense of frustration as well danger and overstating things.
33:27
Speaker 6: I mean, there's always a state of flux in international relations.
33:31
Speaker 6: Things are constantly changing. But I certainly think that with
33:34
Speaker 6: the problems arising from the Strait of hor Mooz, but
33:37
Speaker 6: also larger problems like artificial intelligence, dramatic cultural change and
33:43
Speaker 6: even economic transformation. Even in the media world, you know,
33:46
Speaker 6: going through the digital evolution of media, we are living
33:49
Speaker 6: through profoundly unsettling times and that can sometimes lead to
33:53
Speaker 6: profound political realignments. And so given all that, it would
33:57
Speaker 6: be crazy to think that labor will be in power
33:59
Speaker 6: for another generation despite these divisions.
34:01
Speaker 2: We've been talking about. Tom Switzer, Thank you boy. It's
34:03
Speaker 2: a pleasure, Chris Well. After the break, violence returns to
34:07
Speaker 2: the streets of Belfast. Now to that deeply disturbing story
34:18
Speaker 2: out of the UK. As I mentioned at the top
34:20
Speaker 2: of the show, there have been chaotic scenes in Belfast
34:23
Speaker 2: overnight as protesters took to the streets in rage, burning
34:27
Speaker 2: homes and vehicles following the stabbing of a man in
34:30
Speaker 2: his forties by a thirty year old Sudanese man. He's
34:33
Speaker 2: been charged with attempted murder following the attack on Monday night.
34:37
Speaker 2: For more on this, now I'm joined by writer and
34:39
Speaker 2: broadcaster Esther Kraku or Esther. There's rage on the streets
34:44
Speaker 2: of Belfast, as that spreading out across the UK.
34:48
Speaker 4: At the moment, it seems to be isolated to Belfast
34:51
Speaker 4: and Northern Ireland more specifically, and you can understand why.
34:54
Speaker 4: I mean Northern Ireland in particular has been very sensitive
34:58
Speaker 4: to this rapid rise in immig that you've seen over
35:01
Speaker 4: the years, and this isn't the first time that you've
35:03
Speaker 4: seen incidents like this of the civil unrest because of
35:08
Speaker 4: alleged behavior by by immigrants against the local population, and
35:14
Speaker 4: of course the rights of this nature have followed in
35:17
Speaker 4: the last few years and has been quite disturbing to see.
35:20
Speaker 4: And obviously the suspect has been charged, so this is
35:22
Speaker 4: now an active case, so you know, there's there are
35:26
Speaker 4: limitations to what we can suspect. But report by the
35:29
Speaker 4: Telegraph indicates that this man, who is Sudanese and traveled
35:33
Speaker 4: from Sudan to Paris, was able to claim asylum in
35:37
Speaker 4: the UK by you know, going through a loophole which
35:40
Speaker 4: is becoming more popular, which is flying to Dublin, flying
35:43
Speaker 4: to the Republic of Ireland and then entering Northern Ireland
35:46
Speaker 4: because they share of common Movement agreement, so you can
35:51
Speaker 4: enter Northern Ireland from Ireland without being impeded.
35:54
Speaker 5: And that's that's These are the these.
35:56
Speaker 4: Are the allegations swirling around how he was able to
35:59
Speaker 4: add claim asylum in the UK a couple of years ago.
36:02
Speaker 4: But I think the broader issue here is why is
36:06
Speaker 4: this becoming more and more common? I mean, we kind
36:09
Speaker 4: of the playbook by politicians has become well established. It's
36:11
Speaker 4: called for calm and peace and unity and diversities our
36:14
Speaker 4: strength and yeah, yeah, yeah, Beheada's lives matter apparently, or
36:17
Speaker 4: alleged beheaders lives matter. But why are we seeing cases
36:20
Speaker 4: like this more regularly? It's not a conspiracy by the
36:23
Speaker 4: right wing press. A couple of years ago, Abdelazidi, a
36:26
Speaker 4: man who had no business being in the UK, who
36:28
Speaker 4: was rejected for asylum twice, who on the third time
36:31
Speaker 4: was granted asylum because he apparently converted to Christianity, poured
36:36
Speaker 4: acid on a mother and her two children in London
36:38
Speaker 4: before drowning himself in the Thames. This is becoming more
36:41
Speaker 4: and more common. The Manchester bomber, you will remember, who
36:44
Speaker 4: bombed dozens of children and parents going to see an
36:48
Speaker 4: Ariana Grande concert in Manchester. His family were granted asylum
36:51
Speaker 4: in the UK from Libya for being too extreme for Gaddafi.
36:56
Speaker 4: I mean, you're seeing these bonkers cases of people who
36:58
Speaker 4: have no business being in the UK with an asylum
37:01
Speaker 4: system that's already stretched the limits, that really probably needs
37:04
Speaker 4: a research or at least a few years before it
37:06
Speaker 4: can even take anyone in.
37:08
Speaker 1: And you just have to say, why we.
37:10
Speaker 4: Expect it to remain you know, calm and silent and
37:14
Speaker 4: from what it looks like from Westminster, docile, when these
37:16
Speaker 4: people have no business being in Britain and are clearly
37:19
Speaker 4: a threat to the native population and somehow we're just
37:21
Speaker 4: supposed to be okay with it.
37:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you put your finger right on One
37:25
Speaker 2: of the things that infuriates people esther is that being
37:28
Speaker 2: told that they're the problem, that they should stay calm
37:32
Speaker 2: in the face of provocation exactly.
37:35
Speaker 4: And I think people are reasonable to expect a certain
37:39
Speaker 4: level of competence from their governments, whichever party is empowered,
37:41
Speaker 4: because at the end of the day, the kinds of
37:43
Speaker 4: people that are able to settle and are granted leave
37:46
Speaker 4: to remain in the UK, we should reasonably expect that
37:49
Speaker 4: the government has done its due diligence with these individuals.
37:52
Speaker 4: I don't think that's that's unreasonable, and I don't think
37:55
Speaker 4: that asking people for calm when the government is clearly
37:57
Speaker 4: failing on this front, repeat.
38:00
Speaker 1: Is the right is the right way? Now?
38:01
Speaker 4: Of course, riots and looting and the fun kinds of
38:05
Speaker 4: violent protests we've seen doesn't get anyone anywhere, and it's
38:07
Speaker 4: completely unacceptable. But people are rightly outraged. People on the
38:11
Speaker 4: who are not on the streets, who are not clearly
38:13
Speaker 4: vocalizing their anger at this, are still very angry. And
38:16
Speaker 4: these are the kinds of drip drip effects that lead
38:18
Speaker 4: the population towards more radical parts because the politicians in
38:22
Speaker 4: charge are just not listening of the labor but government,
38:24
Speaker 4: not the conservative government, and people are looking for alternatives.
38:27
Speaker 4: And you can understand why, because these kinds of cases
38:29
Speaker 4: just should not happen. They're completely obscene. And the number
38:32
Speaker 4: of stories I can tell you of, you know, strange
38:34
Speaker 4: men from god knows where loitering around primary schools, it's
38:38
Speaker 4: it's extremely disturbing.
38:40
Speaker 2: And it's reform that's giving voice to this alienation, which
38:43
Speaker 2: is why.
38:43
Speaker 1: It's on the rise absolutely.
38:46
Speaker 4: And and you know this has kind of like their
38:48
Speaker 4: bread and butter issue, immigration And while people say, oh,
38:50
Speaker 4: it's not the immigrants fault that the economy is flatlining, well,
38:54
Speaker 4: I mean, we have seen a ridiculous intake of immigrants immigration,
39:00
Speaker 4: legal and illegal in the last few years and it's
39:02
Speaker 4: not some sort of quaint cultural exchange. And to pretend
39:05
Speaker 4: like there are no deep underlying issues with this or
39:09
Speaker 4: the fact that this is going to be radically transformative
39:12
Speaker 4: for a country that hasn't seen this level of immigration
39:14
Speaker 4: ever in its history. It's completely disingenuous, and I think
39:17
Speaker 4: this is where people's anger stems from. We're being asked
39:19
Speaker 4: to be calm, but we're not being asked to trust
39:21
Speaker 4: in a competent government because there is no competent government
39:23
Speaker 4: to be found and rest assured, people will look elsewhere
39:27
Speaker 4: because this is getting out of hand and people are
39:29
Speaker 4: When people feel unsafe, they are more likely to take
39:33
Speaker 4: extreme roots than to just, you know, keep calm and
39:35
Speaker 4: carry on like the politicians in Westminster expect us to
39:38
Speaker 4: do so.
39:39
Speaker 2: Finally, then, is so what does this mean for the
39:41
Speaker 2: government and the embattled Key Starmer Well Kirs.
39:44
Speaker 4: Starmer's on popularity is sort of baked into the cake.
39:47
Speaker 4: I think we've all accepted it. Andy Burnham is trying
39:51
Speaker 4: to mount a leadership challenge by worming his way back
39:54
Speaker 4: into Westminster with an upcoming by election in Makerfield. We'll
39:58
Speaker 4: see what comes of that. But really the reality is
40:00
Speaker 4: none of the two parties are offering any alternatives. The
40:03
Speaker 4: credibit the Conservatives torched, and incredibility that they would have
40:06
Speaker 4: had with fourteen years of a completely chaotic rule and
40:10
Speaker 4: even though Cammy Beadenoch is trying her best to salvage
40:13
Speaker 4: what could be of Conservative support and the base, both
40:17
Speaker 4: parties have hemorrhaged supports significantly to the Reform Party and
40:20
Speaker 4: so it looks like they are really the opposition and
40:22
Speaker 4: the government waiting at this point. And as usually cases
40:24
Speaker 4: like this that prove why people are gravitating towards reform.
40:29
Speaker 2: Yes, so correctly, thank you, thank you. Well ahead of us,
40:35
Speaker 2: our panel unpacks all the news that's fit to print,
40:38
Speaker 2: including the rise and Rise of One Nation, will now
40:46
Speaker 2: convene our Wednesday panel to make what they can of
40:48
Speaker 2: the news of the day. And joining me is columnist
40:51
Speaker 2: Justin Smith and Christy McSweeney from the pr Council. Welcome
40:55
Speaker 2: to you both, Christy. The Labor Party has put out
40:59
Speaker 2: the hat to its members to try and get some
41:01
Speaker 2: money twenty seven dollars they were asking from each of
41:03
Speaker 2: their members to raise money in the fight against Pauling
41:06
Speaker 2: Hanson and now they've turned that on their head with
41:08
Speaker 2: the fire the Lie campaign. According to One Nation, will
41:11
Speaker 2: take them on their word. They've now raised eight hundred
41:13
Speaker 2: thousand dollars on their way towards a million. The momentum
41:17
Speaker 2: is with one nation at the moment, isn't it.
41:21
Speaker 7: Look the momentum is with one nation for a certain
41:24
Speaker 7: cohort devotions.
41:26
Speaker 2: When we look at people who.
41:27
Speaker 7: Are nominating how they're voting, and those people putting their
41:30
Speaker 7: hand up saying I'm going to vote for one nation,
41:32
Speaker 7: about fifteen percent of those that are rusted on, locked in,
41:35
Speaker 7: you can't change my mind. The other of them are
41:39
Speaker 7: soft coalition voters or people who are just jumping on
41:43
Speaker 7: the momentum for the protest potion. And obviously all of
41:46
Speaker 7: those cohorts together have got one nation out polling the
41:49
Speaker 7: government and the coalition stilled down in about eighteen percent.
41:52
Speaker 7: Although you know there is a silver lighting.
41:54
Speaker 2: They still have some.
41:55
Speaker 7: Pretty good numbers on economic management. But one nation they've
41:59
Speaker 7: called bluff on this. You know, we had the world's
42:01
Speaker 7: greatest treasurer, Wayne Swan out there penning off notes to
42:06
Speaker 7: the Labor Party faithful asking for donations, and this is
42:11
Speaker 7: what has happened. It's bat fight, you know, And I
42:15
Speaker 7: fully believe those figures that Pauline Hanson is quoting justin.
42:20
Speaker 2: Justin, do you think that this is a flash in
42:22
Speaker 2: the pan, just a protest vote or Is this a
42:24
Speaker 2: reformation of politics that we're seeing a hinge point in history?
42:30
Speaker 8: No, I think it's very much a hinge point, because
42:34
Speaker 8: we've seen it already with the rise of the Independence
42:39
Speaker 8: and you know, like, I don't need to give anyone
42:41
Speaker 8: watching this a history lesson about the seat of Josh
42:45
Speaker 8: Freedenberg's seat that he lost, the seat of Mensies as
42:49
Speaker 8: in the seat that Robert Menzies had you would think
42:51
Speaker 8: would never ever have been lost, but got lost to
42:55
Speaker 8: an independent. So no, no, I think this is big.
43:00
Speaker 8: It's enormous. I've got a feeling, Chris, I'd like the thought.
43:03
Speaker 8: So I wonder what the two of you think of this.
43:04
Speaker 8: I think it's going to be the election here coming
43:07
Speaker 8: up in Victoria in November, and the federal election when
43:10
Speaker 8: it happens. They're going to be elections of fear, because
43:12
Speaker 8: there'll be a lot of fear coming from the major parties,
43:16
Speaker 8: and there'll be fear coming from one nation that they
43:19
Speaker 8: guest asked too many questions that they can't answer, because
43:22
Speaker 8: we've already seen a little bit of that from them.
43:24
Speaker 8: They don't like too many questions, so I hope those
43:27
Speaker 8: questions keep coming. But I also don't mind seeing that
43:30
Speaker 8: fear either, because I think we all needed a bit
43:32
Speaker 8: of a shake up with our two party system.
43:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, justin I think the major fear would be coming
43:37
Speaker 2: from the Coalition, the fear of extinction. CHRISTI would you.
43:43
Speaker 7: Look there is certainly as we know. I mean, it's
43:46
Speaker 7: obvious to everybody who's an informed participant, in many people
43:50
Speaker 7: who aren't informed participant, that one notion is eating the
43:54
Speaker 7: coalition vote. But it is worrying the Labor Party. They
43:59
Speaker 7: saw those ms at the South Australian election, those very
44:02
Speaker 7: safe labor seats that we're in the eighty percent margins
44:06
Speaker 7: going having twenty thirty percent significantly cut off their margins
44:11
Speaker 7: in those more outer suburban sort of periurban we call
44:14
Speaker 7: them in the political business and seats, and those people
44:18
Speaker 7: are Labor voters turning towards One Nation, and it's all
44:23
Speaker 7: over the country. Labor is worried as well. They are
44:27
Speaker 7: looking at it thinking, gosh, it's now obvious how many
44:31
Speaker 7: voters are jumping across from Labor to One Nation. Bill
44:34
Speaker 7: Shorten spoke on a podcast on the ABC a few
44:38
Speaker 7: months ago, so, yeah, my mates in the Union, they've
44:40
Speaker 7: locked in behind Pauline, it's happening.
44:44
Speaker 2: Justin Usually budgets sink pretty much within days of them
44:48
Speaker 2: being brought down, but the capital gains tax is one
44:51
Speaker 2: that refuses to go away, and more and more small
44:53
Speaker 2: businesses are saying that this just does not work for them.
44:57
Speaker 2: That's create a huge problem for the Labor Party, hasn't it.
45:02
Speaker 8: Yeah they got a yeah, and they got very little
45:04
Speaker 8: out of it small business. And I mean, you know
45:07
Speaker 8: that there's always people that feel that they have been
45:10
Speaker 8: left out of a budget. I mean that is inevitable,
45:12
Speaker 8: and you're right, it sort of fizzles out after a
45:14
Speaker 8: couple of days. But when that very thing that you're
45:17
Speaker 8: being left out of is also part of an enormous
45:21
Speaker 8: backflip by a government, then the sting. Not only is
45:25
Speaker 8: the sting there, but it also generates its own publicity.
45:28
Speaker 8: And we're seeing that publicity play right out. But I'll
45:31
Speaker 8: tell you what, the Labor Party going out and asking people,
45:34
Speaker 8: or any political party going out and asking for donations
45:37
Speaker 8: after they've just made a enormous backflip on something to
45:42
Speaker 8: do with finances, is that takes a particular set to
45:46
Speaker 8: be able to do something like that.
45:49
Speaker 2: Christy. The problem for the Labor Party. As Justin points out,
45:53
Speaker 2: it's not just that the policy was bad, it's the
45:55
Speaker 2: politics are toxic because of the lie, isn't it.
46:01
Speaker 7: The politics are really really toxic. And we have seen
46:05
Speaker 7: front benches out there trying talking point after talking point
46:10
Speaker 7: after talking point that the government is coming up with,
46:13
Speaker 7: trying to land something that sticks, trying to land an
46:16
Speaker 7: explanation to the Australian public, and they haven't been able
46:20
Speaker 7: to Chris Justin. I even heard the Assistant Treasurer speak
46:24
Speaker 7: in an interview last week saying in response to why
46:29
Speaker 7: there was so much legislation and why the rush of
46:32
Speaker 7: the tax changes bills, said well, John Howard took the
46:37
Speaker 7: GST through eight changes of legislation the Labor Party. The
46:41
Speaker 7: Assistant Treasurer was even silly enough to mention nine times
46:46
Speaker 7: in that one interview that John Howard also brought forward
46:51
Speaker 7: several pieces of tax legislation to employ large tax changes.
46:56
Speaker 7: He failed to mention that John Howard had a mandate
46:59
Speaker 7: to do so. So I haven't heard the Assistant Treasurer
47:02
Speaker 7: or anyone from Lab to say that since they must
47:04
Speaker 7: have given that talking point short shripped.
47:06
Speaker 2: But they are trying everything message.
47:10
Speaker 8: They're all working up the same talking point too. They've
47:13
Speaker 8: all got the same I'm sorryn interrupt Christ if they're
47:15
Speaker 8: all got the same talking point, I mean, we've not
47:17
Speaker 8: seen them mix up. This John Howard thing seems to
47:20
Speaker 8: be the only variation that they have given us. They've
47:23
Speaker 8: tried to hit the same cell over and over again.
47:25
Speaker 8: Didn't work at the start. It hasn't been working for
47:27
Speaker 8: days and days and days. So it is extraordinary that
47:31
Speaker 8: they they're sticking. Well, I suppose they've got no other
47:34
Speaker 8: planet really to be able to go to it on.
47:37
Speaker 2: That isn't it? Isn't that just it? It's the talking points.
47:40
Speaker 2: It's the suffocating sameness of all that we get out
47:44
Speaker 2: of politicians now, doesn't matter Liberal Labor, National Party. That's
47:47
Speaker 2: the problem. It's all freeze, dried and then sent to
47:51
Speaker 2: you through a focus group.
47:53
Speaker 8: Of course, we don't have one's conviction communicators anymore, sorry,
48:01
Speaker 8: one at a.
48:01
Speaker 7: Time to conviction and authenticity.
48:06
Speaker 2: Justin conviction authoricity you exude it clearly. So it's.
48:13
Speaker 1: Well, thank you, mane.
48:14
Speaker 8: Maybe I'm in the wrong game, Maybe I should should
48:17
Speaker 8: be running for something. I think they Oh look, I
48:20
Speaker 8: just I think that there's no communicators anymore. They don't
48:24
Speaker 8: focus on communication, they just focus on slogans. Now, yes,
48:27
Speaker 8: there's a place for slogans in politics.
48:29
Speaker 2: We see it all.
48:30
Speaker 8: Around the world and it has certainly worked over the years.
48:32
Speaker 8: But when you scrape, when the slogans go away, and
48:35
Speaker 8: then people have to listen to the rest of it,
48:37
Speaker 8: you can't keep repeating the same thing over and over again.
48:40
Speaker 8: I think they've come to believe that we're just not
48:43
Speaker 8: smart enough to.
48:43
Speaker 2: Get it, and there we must make an end. Justin
48:45
Speaker 2: and Christie, thank you. We've got to go, and right
48:48
Speaker 2: now it's time for Peter Kredlin. That's enough from us
48:50
Speaker 2: for tonight. Good Night,