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What Would Happen If China Invaded Taiwan? · The Infographics Show Podcast

• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Okay, welcome to beyond infographics. We're diving deep today. You know,
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: when you see a big global event, something like the
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: conflict in Ukraine, it really makes you look at other
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: tense spots and ask, okay, what are people learning here? Right?
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: What are the takeaways?
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Exactly? And maybe just as important, how does the you know,
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: the specific history, the culture, the identity of a place
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: like Taiwan change how we should see it. It's got layers,
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: lots of layers, stuff you just don't get from a
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: quick headline, that's right.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: So we're going to try and take what we can
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: see from recent events, especially Ukraine, to maybe understand the
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: calculations around Taiwan a bit.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Better and connect that back to Taiwan's own story right,
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: its own journey, how its identity got.
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: Shaped, exactly, how it sees itself.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: So our mission here really is to get past that
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: surface level stuff. We want to help you understand all
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: these tangled threads, strategy, the huge economic risks, the deep
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: history that makes Taiwan what it is today.
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: It's complicated, no doubt, yeah, but you kind of need
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: to grasp it to be properly informed.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: So where do we start looking east from Ukraine seems
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: like a good place China's thinking, Yeah.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: That seems critical. I mean, it's pretty clear China is
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: watching Russia's invasion very very closely and drawing lessons.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: Especially about the costs, maybe the potential price tag for
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: military action against Taiwan.
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: That seems to be a big one. The thinking is
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: those costs might look well, quite a bit higher now
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: than maybe they thought before, right, And that perception that
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: feeling of higher risk could be more caution from Beijing
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: at least, you know, in the short to medium term.
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: Unless unless. Yeah, that's the big unless unless. But it's nuanced.
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: The analysis suggests that okay, wes unity was strong, but
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: China might expect a lot of the developing world to
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: stay neutral or maybe even oppose a coalition against them.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: So China might be working those angles, like through the
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Shanghai Cooperation Organization or with African nations.
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: It seems likely they try to mobilize support there. Yeah,
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: use those existing diplomatic channels, maybe try to split potential opposition.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's seem it. On the military side. Then, what
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: specific lessons might China be taking from Ukraine's battlefields.
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: Well, one huge point seems to be just how vital
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: surprise is, especially for something massive like a joint island landing.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Right, landing troops on an island like Taiwan.
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: Exactly, that takes so much preparation. You have to mobilize
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: the economy, get troops in place. It takes time, and
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: it's hard to hide. If you lose surprise, your whole
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: plan gets way harder.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: And what about the effectiveness of their own military Russia's
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: reforms didn't seem to go perfectly smoothly.
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: That's a really interesting angle. Russia went through big reforms
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: after two thousand and eight, right, but they still face challenges,
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: especially with coordinating different forces, ground, air, sea, cyber combined arms.
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: So China's PLA they've been doing their own major reforms
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: since twenty sixteen. Seeing Russia's difficulties might make them think
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: hard about their own progress, especially on those complex coordinated operations.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: And corruption that always seems to come up when talking
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: about military readiness.
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: It's a constant worry. The PLA and the CCP have
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: been trying to crack down on corruptions since twenty twelve,
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: but seeing how it might have affected Russia's military in
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: Ukraine probably reinforces, just how damaging it can be, how
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: much it undermines everything.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: Plus just achieving a quick win. An amphibious assault is
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: way harder than ruling tanks across a land border.
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: Presumably it is much much harder. So Ukraine might suggest
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: that a quick knockout blow against Taiwan is well maybe
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: not realistic right now. They might need totally new strategies
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: for that, and those take time to develop.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: Okay, So that brings us to the economics. What are
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: the big lessons there? Sanctions?
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: Maybe sanctions are definitely a huge takeaway, the speed and
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: how broad they were against Russia. That's a challenge for China.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Why specifically, Well, think about.
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: Their foreign reserves. A huge chunk of that money is
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: held in currencies like dollars, euros, yen, pounds, the very
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: currencies of the country's most likely to impose sanctions.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: Ah, right, So those reserves could be frozen or restricted.
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: Exactly, And getting the Chinese currency the R and B
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: internationalized enough to get around that that's likely decades away realistically.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Could they use economic carrots though, try to buy off
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: potential sanctioning countries.
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: They might try use economic deals investments maybe to try
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: and divide countries. But that basic vulnerability, having your savings
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: mostly in someone else's currency, that doesn't just go away.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: Okay, so let's just pause here. The core insight from
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: looking at Ukraine isn't necessarily oh, China's military is suddenly
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: ready to go.
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: No, not really. The analysis suggests that if China does
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: decide to use force sooner rather than later, it's probably
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: less about thinking their military prospects have dramatically improved and
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: more about more about a feeling that the US or
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: tai Wan have crossed some kind of fundamental redline, something that,
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: in Beijing's view, closes the door on peaceful unification entirely,
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: like what's outlined in their two thousand and five anti
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: Succession law.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: Okay, so, moving past the strategic calculations for a moment,
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: the potential economic fallout if conflict did happen over Taiwan.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: It just sounds staggering, it really is.
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: The global stakes are just so much higher than Ukraine.
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: It's not even close. Really.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Why, Yeah, just the sheer size of the economies involved exactly.
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: You're talking about the US, China, Japan, Australia, Taiwan itself.
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: These are giants of the world economy. Russia and Ukraine,
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: while important for specific things like energy and grain, just
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: aren't on the same scale globally. The ripple effects would
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: be enormous.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Everywhere, and markets would react even before anything happened, right
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: like we saw with oil prices before the Ukraine invasion.
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: Absolutely, markets try to look ahead, so just the expectation
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: of a conflict over Taiwan could cause chaos. You'd likely
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: see a massive flight to safety, money rushing into things
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: seen as safe like US Treasury bonds, so bond yields
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: would probably fall sharply. We saw that after Pearl Harbor
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: the Korean War nine to eleven, and stocks socks would
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: likely tank, at least initially. Volatility would spike big time.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: What about the banks? Is the global banking system exposed.
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: Very much, So there's huge exposure in the Western Pacific.
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: Just foreign bank claims on China alone are over one
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: point two trillion dollars. Wow. Yeah, so a conflict could
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: put immense pressure on banks with ties to the region.
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: You might need central bank stepping in with emergency loans,
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: maybe even capital injections to stop a full blown systemic crisis.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: And China's own reserves. They hold trillions in foreign currency,
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: mostly dollars, right, what would they do?
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: It's almost certain they'd try to sell off a lot
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: of their US assets before conflict breaks out to avoid
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: having them frozen by sanctions like we talked about.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Could that cripple the US economy something trillions of dollars?
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: You know, this is maybe one of the most surprising insights.
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: The analysis suges that even selling trillions, it would probably
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: only have a fairly modest impact on US interest rates,
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: maybe like five basis points.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Really, that seems small, it does.
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: But the thinking is the Federal Reserve could likely manage
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: it step in to stabilize markets. The bigger problem might
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: actually be for China, where do they put all that
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: money afterwards where it's safe and not likely to get
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: sanctioned again.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Okay, so maybe not a financial collapse from reserve sales,
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: But what about just trade shipping goods around the world.
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: Ah, that's where it gets truly catastrophic. Global trade would
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: face just devastating disruption. Well, imagine porch being damaged, You're destroyed,
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: shipping lanes becoming war zones, getting insurance for cargo ships
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: going anywhere near the region forget about it. And when
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: you think about how much global trade involves China, the US, Japan, Korea, Taiwan,
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: you're talking about grinding a huge portion of the world's
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: commerce to a halt.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: And the supply chains, especially the tech supply chain. This
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: is a Taiwan.
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: This is the absolute crucial point. Taiwan's role is just
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: off the charts, especially in semiconductors. They make something like
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: over ninety percent of the world's most advanced chips. Ninety percent. Yeah,
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: we saw glimpses of supply chain fragility with like oil
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: and food from the Ukraine War, or the chip shortages
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: for cars during COVID. A conflict involving Taiwan, that would
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: be like those disruptions multiplied by well a huge number.
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: It could shut down vast swaths of global manufacturing, tech, cars, electronics, everything.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: You sometimes hear this old idea that war is good
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: for the economy. Maybe thinking about the US and World
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: War two, does that apply at all here?
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: Not really, No, that comparison doesn't hold up. Back in WWII,
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: the US have massive untapped industrial capacity and relatively low debt. Today,
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: key countries, including the US, already have sky high government debt.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: And China is the manufacturing giant now, not the US
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: like back then.
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: Exactly. So, No, a Taiwan conflict wouldn't be stimulative. The
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: analysis is pretty clear it would be profoundly disruptive globally.
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: It would hammer economic outpoot everywhere in pretty much every sector.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: Okay, deep breath. If you're finding these insights helpful, if
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: they're taking you beyond infographics, please do consider leaving us
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: a five star rating. It really helps other people find
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: these deep dives.
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it does. And you know, to really get this
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: whole picture, we have to go beyond the strategy and
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: the economics. We need to talk about the island itself,
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: Taiwan's own story, its identity. This is maybe the most
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: crucial piece of the puzzle.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: How so, how did that identity come about? It wasn't
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: always separate from China historically.
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: Well after Japan's colonial rule ended in nineteen forty five,
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: the KMT government that the Nationalists came over from mainland China.
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: They imposed the Republic of China system and crucially a
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: very specific idea of Chinese nationalist culture.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: And for people already living there who'd been under Japanese rule.
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: For many of them, it felt like swamping one colonial
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: master for another, a kind of ecolonialism. This some scholars.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: So the KMT brought this official version of Chinese news
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: pretty much.
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: It's been described as this reconstructed, almost museum like version
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: of Chinese culture. A conservatory is one phrase used, and
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: it mostly reflected the view of the Mandarin speaking elite
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: who just.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: Arrived and local traditions A language often suppressed.
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: Local languages Taiwanese hawking, for example, were discouraged. Existing identities
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: were pushed aside in favor of this official Chinese.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: Identity, which naturally led to pushback.
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: I assume absolutely you saw the rise of what's called Taiwanization,
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: or bentua in Mandarin. This was basically a resistance movement
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: culturally and politically, a kind of decolonization effort really aimed
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: at building a distinct Taiwanese nationalism.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: When did that really take off?
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: It started simmering earlier, but it really gained steam from
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: the nineteen seventies nineteen eighties onwards, leading into the democratic era.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: So once Taiwan became democratic, how did that identity process change?
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: It accelerated. Taiwan became this fascinating laboratory of identities people
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: call it. In that new democratic space, people started actively
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: rewriting Taiwan's story, presenting it as its own nation, you know,
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: separate from the mainland.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: How did they do that well?
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: Sometimes by emphasizing certain historical moments or cultural traditions, using
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: invented traditions perhaps, or what's been called postmodern primordialism. That
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: it's like strategically picking elements from the past, maybe ancient
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: cultural traits, and highlighting them to build a sense of
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: deep rooted, distinct identity. Today. What's really interesting is that
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: both sides, in a way, the KMT emphasizing chineseiness and
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: the DPP emphasizing taiwan easiness, have kind of strategically essentialized identity.
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: They've picked certain things and said this is what defines us.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: And that has political consequences, obviously huge ones.
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: It shapes the political divides, how people vote, how they
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: see their future, and it even sparks reactions like a
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: growing indigenous rights movement pushing back against both Han Chinese narratives.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: The outline mentioned a really interesting comparison to Ireland.
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's really thought provoking parallel both islands, right, both
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: with complex colonial histories next to a larger neighbor.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: How does the comparison work well?
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: Think about how things like the Irish famine really fueled
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: anti English feelings and the push for home rule in Taiwan.
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: Certain experiences under KMT rules similarly fueled anti Mainlander sentiment
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: and the desire for self determination, but the outcomes were different,
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: very different paths. Yeah, Ireland's home rule movement eventually led
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: to independence. Taiwan's big political shift away from the KMT
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: was more tied up with bigger geopolitical events like World
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: War II shifting power dynamics. But it's fascinating that apparently
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: Irish home rule was actually discussed as a possible model
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: for Taiwan way back in the early twentieth century.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: Wow, and resistance, it's not always politics or fighting, is it.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: It can be cultural in everyday life.
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: That's such a key insight. Resistance isn't just marches and flags.
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: It's woven into the fabric of daily life, into art,
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: into language. You can almost see the contrast in movies
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: like how think about a film like The Wind that
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: Shakes the Barley about Ireland. It shows very direct physical
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: resistance right fighting, Yeah, they compare that to Taiwanese films
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: like the classic A City of Sadness.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: Tell me about that one. A City of Sadness.
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: It's set right after WWII, when the KMT has just arrived.
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: It follows the Taiwanese family just trying to survive this
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: incredibly chaotic, often brutal transition. There's a main character who's
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: a deaf, mute photographer. Why is that significant, Well, many
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: see him as symbolizing the Taiwanese people at that time,
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: silence politically, unable to spe out freely under the new regime.
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: But he's also the witness. He sees everything, records it
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: through his camera. There's this heartbreaking line where another character says,
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: Taiwan has been eaten by everyone, written by everyone, sympathized
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: by no one. That's powerful, It really is. And films
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: like that show how resistance is tied so deeply to
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: just holding onto your identity, your family, your way of
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: seeing the world, even when you can't fight back.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: It sounds incredibly complex. How does all this focus on identity,
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: on who is Taiwanese connect with something practical, like say
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: immigration policy?
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: It creates some interesting tensions in Taiwan you have this
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: really strong push for cultural nation building defining taiwaneseeness, but
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: that seems to exist alongside quite a bit of resistance
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: to immigration, especially for permanent settlement. How so, well, the
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: laws make it very tough for foreign workers, even those
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: have been there a long time, to actually become Taiwanese citizens.
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: It's a contrast with say Ireland again, where maybe economic
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: needs eventually led to more openness after the main phase
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: of cultural nation building was done. In Taiwan, the identity
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: project seemed to still heavily influence those practical policies.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's shift gears slightly beyond a potential military conflict.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: What other tools does China have or use in relation
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: to Taiwan and others? Cyber attacks come to mind.
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: Absolutely. Cyber is definitely a major tool. China has shown
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: it's willing to use cyber attacks to pressure government and
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: even private companies to try and change policies it doesn't like.
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: Is there a good example of that.
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the sous Ria case back in twenty seventeen is
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: pretty well documented. When South Korea deployed that US JOGAD
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: missile defense system.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: Which China objected to strongly.
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: Very strongly, and the company that provide the land Lotty
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: group they got hammered major cyber attacks apparently originating from China,
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: plus economic sanctions. Their stores in China were closed down,
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: there were calls for boycotts a whole campaign.
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: So it's cyber plus economic pressure often yeah, cyber enabled
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: economic coercion, you.
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: Could call it.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: Has the level of Chinese cyber activity changed much well.
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: The assessment seems to be that the overall volume of
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: detected breaches might have dropped a bit since around twenty
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: fifteen after some agreements were made. But the activity that
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: is happening is seen as maybe more focused, calculated and
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: still successful. So fewer random attacks perhaps, but more targeted,
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: sophisticated intrusions aimed at specific goals.
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: And they're also concerns about Chinese tech companies themselves, right,
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: Potential security risks, Yes.
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: That's a big ongoing debate in many countries, concerns about
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: national security risks, especially if the technology from companies with
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: close ties to Beijing gets embedded in critical infrastructure like
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: power grids or communication networks and didn't.
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: China also used to require foreign companies wanting to sell
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: there to form joint ventures.
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: That was standard practice for a long time. You wanted
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: market access, you often had to partner with a Chinese company,
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: and that frequently involved requirements to transfer technology, share intellectual property,
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: basically handover know how as the price of entry.
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: So these are all powerful levers, even without firing a shot.
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: Definitely, cyber pressure, economic coercion, tech transfer requirements, these are
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: all tools in the toolbox.
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: Okay, So when you put it all together, the strategic
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: lessons China might be learning from Ukraine, the absolutely massive
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: economic consequences we talked about, the deep complex history shaping
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: Taiwan's identity, right, and the.
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: Way distance plays out culturally.
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: And then adding these other tools, the cyber attacks, the
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: economic pressure, you really do get a picture that goes
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: so far beyond just you know, looking at a map
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: or a simple infographic.
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you start to see how all these different pieces connect,
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: How history shape strategy, how economics influences politics, how identity
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: fuels resistance. It's all tangled together.
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: If this kind of deep dive going beyond infographics has
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: been useful for you, please do think about leaving us
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: that five star rating. It really does help other folks
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: find the show.
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: So just to quickly recap the ground we've covered. We
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: looked at China's potential strategic takeaways from Ukraine, costs, alliances, military.
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: Realities, then the huge global economic shock waves of a
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: conflict could trigger trade finance, supply chains, especially semiconductors.
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: We dove into Taiwan's own story, that journey from imposed
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: identity under the KMT to this democratic laboratory of identities,
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: and how resistance is cultural as much as.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: Political, drawing that really interesting parallel with Ireland along the way.
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: Right, And finally we touched on those non military tools
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: cyber attacks, economic coercion, technology issues.
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: It really underscores how history, strategy, economics, identity, they're all
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: locked together here.
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: Absolutely it's not simple, which.
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: Leaves us maybe with a final thought for you to
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: chew want as you go about your day. Given everything
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: we've talked about Taiwan's really unique path to defining itself
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: and this incredible economic web connecting everyone across the Strait
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: and globally, how might things evolve from here? Could the
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: search for unification or for self determination take turns that
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: may be nobody on either side fully seas coming right
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: now