Latest / Simply Bitcoin / FORGET $103,000: Wall Street is SILENTLY BUYING ALL The Bitcoin | EP 1374

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FORGET $103,000: Wall Street is SILENTLY BUYING ALL The Bitcoin | EP 1374 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  Forget about $102,000 because the biggest banks in the world
• 0:05
  are now accelerating their silence Bitcoin takeover.
• 0:10
  So this here is the chart of the Bitcoin price everybody's been
• 0:13
  worried about hit correcting recently down to $102,000.
• 0:18
  But not only Jamie Dimon, we can see his bank, JP Morgan just
• 0:24
  increased its Bitcoin exposure by over 60% while dumping
• 0:28
  Ethereum. But we also have another massive
• 0:32
  bank quietly increasing its Bitcoin exposure this week,
• 0:36
  which I think asks us the question a lot of people are
• 0:40
  guessing and they're questioning is the four year Bitcoin cycle
• 0:44
  debt? And if it is, why are the banks
• 0:48
  right now silently buying Bitcoin?
• 0:51
  Why is Donald Trump putting out $2000 Simi check bonuses?
• 0:56
  And we've even got Trump coming out this week talking about 50
• 0:59
  year mortgages. We've got some conflicting
• 1:02
  information that we're going to be talking about today.
• 1:04
  Chris, I'd love your thoughts on all of this and where you want
• 1:08
  to start today's deep dive. I think, well, I guess I'll
• 1:11
  start with the STEMI checks from Trump.
• 1:13
  So how's it going, Luke? I think that the US government,
• 1:16
  we don't have a earning problem or revenue problem.
• 1:19
  We get what like $4.1 trillion a year in tax receipts.
• 1:23
  We have a spending problems. You know, obviously Trump is
• 1:26
  trying to pass the big beautiful bill that increases spending by,
• 1:29
  I think 9 trillion over the next 10 years, while we're also
• 1:32
  simultaneously, what is it, 30, seven, $38 trillion in debt?
• 1:36
  And then he's like trying to say, hey, we're raising all this
• 1:38
  money from tariffs, even though the Supreme Court is going
• 1:41
  through legislation, I think in the next week or two talking
• 1:44
  about whether this is constitutionally allowed for the
• 1:47
  president to sign an executive order to tariff these countries.
• 1:50
  And then basically he's trying to send out these checks to be
• 1:52
  like, oh, look at all this money we did from the tariffs.
• 1:54
  Obviously, he's trying to get a goodwill to be like the people,
• 1:57
  like trying to get the goodwill of voters and people in general
• 2:00
  to say, oh, don't remove the tariffs.
• 2:01
  Supreme Court, like, we want this.
• 2:02
  This is a good thing. We're getting stimi checks.
• 2:04
  But at the end of the day, it's another way that we're printing
• 2:06
  more money in order to cause more inflation.
• 2:09
  I don't know if we have the charter, I can look for it.
• 2:11
  They pulling up like what's my stimulus check worth now in
• 2:13
  Bitcoin? I mean, I remember back in what
• 2:16
  is that April of 2020 when they're sending out the $1200
• 2:19
  stimulus checks. I mean, I think it's well over
• 2:21
  like here, it's close to $20,000 if you've invested in Bitcoin
• 2:24
  back then. So really great investment if
• 2:26
  you did that. Obviously if you're holding your
• 2:27
  stats, we advocate for here, buy Bitcoin, take it in self custody
• 2:30
  and hold it in self custody yourself.
• 2:32
  Yeah, it's right there. I think Opie or Luke pulled it
• 2:34
  up for $21,000 for the initial investment of the $1200 stimulus
• 2:39
  check that went out in April, mid-april of 2020.
• 2:42
  So yeah, just keep my mind Bitcoin hold in self custody.
• 2:45
  But I do think, like I said, the Trump admin, they're trying to
• 2:48
  buy goodwill of people because we're a year in at this point.
• 2:52
  We're a year of him being elected, and it just seems like
• 2:55
  a lot of promises not kept and met.
• 2:57
  Like, you know, people are complaining about inflation and
• 3:00
  the price and unaffordability. Obviously we just had Election
• 3:03
  Day here in the United States and we basically had a sweep
• 3:05
  from the Democrats. And obviously if that's a sign
• 3:07
  for the Republicans, yeah, they had an overwhelming majority in
• 3:10
  2024, but not to get political with it in 2025.
• 3:13
  The governor of New Jersey is a Democrat now the governor of
• 3:17
  Virginia, 1 is a Democrat. The mayor of New York City is a
• 3:20
  Democrat. And obviously I think the
• 3:22
  central issue is kind of comes down to two issues is 1 is kind
• 3:25
  of, I hate to say it, but like the Israel and foreign war
• 3:27
  topics of Ukraine and Israel are like on the forefront of
• 3:30
  everyone's minds. We just had a 20 year
• 3:32
  unsuccessful campaign under both Democrats and Republicans in
• 3:36
  these foreign wars that have killed many Americans or many
• 3:39
  Americans come back and are obviously dying to obviously
• 3:42
  drug overdoses or the fentanyl crisis or a lot of different
• 3:45
  things. While on affordability is
• 3:47
  getting more and more expensive for the average day American and
• 3:50
  then just people abroad. And then that ties into the
• 3:52
  economy, Yeah, like the stock market and Bitcoin and all those
• 3:55
  have seen, you know, exponential growth.
• 3:57
  But at the end of the day, if your wages are not keeping up
• 4:00
  and you don't have enough, like the poorest or middle or poor
• 4:03
  class don't have enough surplus income to invest in things.
• 4:05
  As things become more and more inexpensive, you know, it's
• 4:09
  impossible to get in to buy a house if energy is going up, if
• 4:12
  food prices are going up, these things become more and more
• 4:14
  difficult. Obviously us as Bitcoiners see
• 4:16
  it as taking our Fiat currency or taking our time and putting
• 4:19
  into Bitcoin. Many people were trying to
• 4:21
  educate, obviously to get on a Bitcoin standard, because then
• 4:23
  this becomes a message of hop and hope and optimism while
• 4:29
  keeping your time and your resources and your money to
• 4:31
  yourself. But I do think like we are in
• 4:34
  the minority. Like if you think like how many
• 4:36
  bit corners there are worldwide or even how many bit corners
• 4:38
  there are in the US, we are the the very, very small minority.
• 4:41
  Obviously we're getting bigger voices as the Bitcoin price
• 4:43
  keeps going up, you know, and we're obviously right in the
• 4:46
  long term that we believe. But I think, yeah, it comes down
• 4:49
  to 2 two main issues. It's obviously the foreign wars
• 4:52
  and the foreign entanglements and then the the price of
• 4:55
  everything and the economy getting more and more expensive
• 4:57
  for everything. So sorry for my long rant there
• 4:59
  Luke. Take it away.
• 5:01
  Never apologize, my friend. You mentioned lots of really
• 5:03
  interesting things, which is why I didn't want to cut you off.
• 5:05
  The 1st is this stock market, as you say, it's becoming more and
• 5:10
  more unaffordable day after day, week after week, month after
• 5:13
  month. And that's because from a first
• 5:15
  principles basis, they have to print more money.
• 5:18
  There is no escape in it. We are living in a debt spiral.
• 5:22
  And I do want to talk about some of the interesting promises that
• 5:26
  maybe Trump has made and not followed through on yet later on
• 5:30
  in today's show because there is a lot of meat on that bone, so
• 5:33
  to say. But I want to bring it back to
• 5:35
  the banks. So the first bank was Jamie
• 5:38
  Dimon that just quietly started increasing its Bitcoin exposure
• 5:43
  in Q3 2025. Now in the intro, I said there
• 5:47
  was another giant. Of course, we're talking about
• 5:50
  the $2 trillion giant BNY Melon. They just increased the Bitcoin
• 5:55
  holdings by a lazy 140% in Q3. This is really interesting.
• 6:00
  We're just starting to get all of this new information come out
• 6:04
  about the third quarter 2025. And this, Chris, kind of makes
• 6:08
  me thinking, right, We've got this government shutdown
• 6:12
  looming. We've got, for example, Michael
• 6:16
  Burry is short again. He's famously shorting this
• 6:20
  chart, which admittedly, it looks pretty crazy.
• 6:23
  This is the Palantir chart right now and Michael Bury's gone
• 6:27
  short. The government's is waffling and
• 6:30
  battling about it opening up or closing down again.
• 6:34
  And a lot of people are wondering, hang on a minute, you
• 6:36
  know, it's November, it's a year and a half post Bitcoin halving.
• 6:41
  What is happening with the price?
• 6:43
  But then behind closed doors, we're getting these SEC
• 6:47
  disclosures showing that the biggest banks, Jamie Dimon and
• 6:51
  the $2 trillion BNY Mellon is silently increasing their
• 6:55
  exposure. These are just some of the
• 6:57
  things that really makes you go, hmm, what's happening here,
• 7:00
  Chris? What's your thoughts on BNY
• 7:01
  Mellon? I think they're seeing the
• 7:04
  writing on the wall. I think obviously we've seen a
• 7:06
  run on the gold price. Gold has done very, very well
• 7:09
  over the last year, year and a half or so.
• 7:12
  I think B1 BNY Mellon is trying to increase their Bitcoin
• 7:16
  holdings. We saw obviously a pullback.
• 7:17
  What the all time high was 126 one 27128 ish in that range.
• 7:22
  Obviously we were, we broke down below 100.
• 7:25
  It was funny following those on Polymarket or Cashy.
• 7:28
  You could see like, was Bitcoin going to go under 100K?
• 7:31
  And it did briefly. It rebounded.
• 7:32
  We're now back at close to one O 3 right now.
• 7:35
  But I think like you don't buy things when they're hitting all
• 7:39
  time highs. You either sell them, you know,
• 7:41
  or you have an opportunity to buy into them.
• 7:44
  Obviously, I don't believe that Bitcoin.
• 7:46
  I believe you keep buying, holding on.
• 7:47
  And obviously, you know, I don't sell my Bitcoin in general, but
• 7:51
  I can see that for other equities or stocks or if you're
• 7:53
  retired and you need to sell things in order to live or fuel
• 7:56
  your lifestyle. But yeah, I mean, obviously
• 7:58
  gold's prices skyrocketing. I think you want hard assets.
• 8:01
  I think also this ties into Trump's other thing.
• 8:04
  So there's talks of aside from the $2000 stimulus check, Luke,
• 8:07
  I don't know if you saw this, the 50 year mortgages.
• 8:09
  So when you're when you're saying right now the average
• 8:12
  price or the average age of a home buyer here in the United
• 8:15
  States is 40 years old. That's the average price.
• 8:17
  Obviously there's people that buy younger, higher, but first
• 8:19
  time homebuyers, the average age right now is 40 years old, which
• 8:22
  is not a good thing. I don't think that's a good
• 8:23
  thing by any means. But now if you're putting on top
• 8:26
  of this 50 year mortgages, So imagine your first time
• 8:28
  homebuyer, you get this 50 year mortgage and you're 90 by the
• 8:32
  time you pay off and buy these things.
• 8:33
  Obviously if you don't move or if you stay in that single home,
• 8:36
  you're the whole life, but like that's just really absurd.
• 8:40
  Also, if I'm being completely honest, as someone that owns a
• 8:42
  home, you know, while getting a home that you want to stay in
• 8:46
  for a long time for your family, I believe is is a good
• 8:48
  investment or a good thing to have at the end of the day.
• 8:51
  Like this 50 year mortgage, when you do the math on it, it does
• 8:53
  not look good. Like it's not that much cheaper
• 8:56
  per month payment to get a 50 year mortgage.
• 8:58
  And normally the interest rates have to be higher because you
• 9:00
  think of the risk of of the investment.
• 9:03
  Obviously the banks or even the government, even though they're
• 9:05
  not the best investors at all by any means, unless your name is
• 9:08
  Nancy Pelosi or if you're in Congress or Senate, that's a
• 9:10
  story for another day. But yeah, like obviously a 15
• 9:13
  year mortgage, you're going to get a better interest rate than
• 9:15
  a 30 year slightly higher. And then a fifty year mortgage,
• 9:18
  like you're really batting up against inflation.
• 9:20
  So, you know, obviously the average interest rate right now
• 9:23
  of homes, I think it's like 6567.
• 9:26
  So assuming that if you're going to 50 year mortgage, the
• 9:28
  interest rates are going to be 7, seven and a half 8%.
• 9:31
  I don't know what it's going to come in if it actually goes
• 9:33
  through where like if you get a 15 year mortgage, it's probably
• 9:35
  6 or sub six depending on your credit rating.
• 9:38
  So obviously this is not something like that.
• 9:40
  You as you don't want to loan money at a 50 year term and not
• 9:45
  get your money back. Or like, hey, like Luke, I'll
• 9:47
  guarantee I'll loan you 100 bucks and then if you guarantee
• 9:49
  that you give me $95 back. It's a great investment for you,
• 9:52
  but it's not a good investment for me.
• 9:54
  So that's obviously what happens when you print money like, you
• 9:57
  know, if you're buying U.S. government bonds at 3%, at 4%,
• 10:00
  it's like, yeah, I guarantee I'll lend you money at 100 bucks
• 10:02
  and you give me $103.00 back. But if you printed enough money
• 10:05
  that it only works or the purchasing power of 989697
• 10:10
  dollars, that's not a good trade for me.
• 10:12
  I, me as an investor lost money. That's why many people are
• 10:14
  fleeing to hard assets such as homes such as gold, such as
• 10:17
  Bitcoin, because they want to escape the Fiat inflation.
• 10:20
  And if you're using Fiat bonds or bond as a Fiat instrument, it
• 10:25
  obviously you're not returning on your capital that you're
• 10:27
  giving. Yeah, exactly right.
• 10:29
  You mentioned something else first home buyers.
• 10:32
  This is really interesting. I didn't, but when you said that
• 10:35
  statistic I had to Google, I was like, what?
• 10:37
  I need to Fact Check Chris here for a moment.
• 10:39
  The first home buyer is like nearly in their 40s.
• 10:43
  This is a backwards world, man. This is like it's actually
• 10:47
  insane when you start thinking about it.
• 10:49
  Do the math. If you get a 50 year mortgage,
• 10:51
  somebody's going to be in that home paying off that debt when
• 10:54
  they're 88. That math just does not math.
• 10:58
  Yeah. And then you think of it too,
• 11:00
  when you think of mortgages in general, obviously the interest
• 11:03
  is front loaded on the loan because they banks or the
• 11:05
  lenders want to be paid back first.
• 11:07
  So when you stretch it over a 50 year period, like if you're not
• 11:10
  in that home for more than normally they say for a 30 year
• 11:13
  mortgage, if you're not in the home for at least a decade, it's
• 11:15
  really depending. You're obviously hoping that the
• 11:17
  equity or the value of the home goes up to cover the cost if you
• 11:20
  want to move before that 10 year mark.
• 11:22
  But if you, if it doesn't go up, if the market goes down or
• 11:24
  corrects like 2008, it could be underwater in a home.
• 11:26
  So this happened to many people in the United States,
• 11:28
  unfortunately, in 2008. So they buy a house, let's just
• 11:31
  say $200,000. Let's just say the market
• 11:33
  corrects because the 2008 financial crisis down by 4050%.
• 11:37
  Even spots in California and stuff, some homes were down
• 11:40
  6070%. Obviously, if you're an
• 11:42
  investor, that's a great time to buy in at that time.
• 11:44
  But if you're someone that's just an everyday person, you buy
• 11:46
  your home, you buy that $200,000, it gets cut in half to
• 11:50
  $100,000. So 200,000 down to 100,000.
• 11:52
  But you only put down 20%, down 40%.
• 11:55
  You know, you're only in the homes a few years.
• 11:57
  You obviously haven't had the equity to go up.
• 11:59
  You would now need to sell your house at a loss.
• 12:02
  So you sell it for $100,000. You need to close or go to the
• 12:04
  closing table or the, the, the closing and you need to pay
• 12:08
  $60,000. So you're in this home for a few
• 12:10
  years. You're hoping to have equity or
• 12:12
  something in this house, but the $40,000 that you put as a down
• 12:15
  deposit is not there. And that's also on the back of
• 12:18
  people are needing to sell their homes because they're forced
• 12:21
  out, like they lost their job. They need to move to either find
• 12:23
  a new job or moving with family. But you basically have this home
• 12:26
  that you're being foreclosed on and you need to come up with
• 12:29
  $60,000 at the closing. So you put $40,000 down a few
• 12:33
  years ago. You're working your everyday
• 12:34
  job. Unfortunately, whatever
• 12:36
  happened, maybe you lost your job and then now you have this
• 12:38
  liability that you need to still pay every month.
• 12:41
  If not, if you sell the house, you sell it at a loss.
• 12:43
  So obviously that's what happened in 2008.
• 12:45
  I'm not advocating or saying that that's what's going to
• 12:47
  happen here, but also we don't have enough home supply on the
• 12:51
  market right now or the enough homes on the supply to meet the
• 12:54
  demand. With opening up these 50 year
• 12:56
  mortgages now you're taking people so you're not increasing
• 12:58
  the number of homes or the number of apartments or places
• 13:01
  to live. You're now adding all these 20
• 13:03
  to 40 year olds. You're trying to obviously pull
• 13:05
  them into the housing market. So you're adding more demand on
• 13:08
  top of a limited supply. Like obviously with we're
• 13:11
  getting from the Austrian perspective or more of the free
• 13:13
  market Bitcoin perspective, you would want Trump to repeal
• 13:17
  restrictions or laws that are holding back home purchases or
• 13:21
  home building. So obviously you want it, you
• 13:23
  want to rile up the economy or you want to like start the
• 13:26
  economy again or make homes more affordable.
• 13:28
  You need to have people building.
• 13:30
  You know, obviously Trump's trope was going into the
• 13:33
  election was drill, baby drill. Obviously he was talking about
• 13:35
  oil, but the same could be said for the construction industry.
• 13:38
  You want to peel back regulations or make things
• 13:40
  easier and faster and more efficient for companies to come
• 13:44
  in and build and, you know, expand on these homes because as
• 13:47
  right now, you know, it's not affordable for the everyday
• 13:50
  American to get into homes. That's why the average age is
• 13:53
  38, almost 40 years old. And you want to make it more
• 13:56
  affordable and easier for people to get in with homes.
• 13:59
  That's just my 2 stats on the situation.
• 14:01
  Absolutely, it's again a house is the most pivotal, biggest
• 14:06
  investment that the average you know, the everyday person is
• 14:09
  going to make. And just the way I look at
• 14:12
  things from a 50,000 foot level is look, if you're going to
• 14:15
  start pumping out 50 year mortgages, I don't this is my
• 14:20
  opinion. It could be wrong.
• 14:21
  Chris, I'd love love for your thoughts on this topic, but 50
• 14:24
  year mortgages just makes homes more expensive and puts them far
• 14:29
  out of the reach of the average, the everyday person.
• 14:33
  So I, I just don't know how this is a good thing for me.
• 14:36
  I'd pop my, my, you know, tin foe hat, conspiracy theorist hat
• 14:41
  on. And I just look at this and it
• 14:43
  just looks like another convenient way to in debt the
• 14:45
  everyday person for even longer. No, I, I completely agree.
• 14:49
  And if you think about it, if you're at BlackRock, if you're
• 14:52
  Blackstone, if you're some of these, you know, investment
• 14:55
  companies or banks, if you know that this is going to go through
• 14:59
  with the Trump admin, if, if they're going to get the right
• 15:01
  to make 50 year mortgages, basically backstop by the US
• 15:04
  government through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
• 15:07
  What what like, you know, if you and I are investors, Luke, the
• 15:10
  best thing that I was do if I was one of these large
• 15:12
  investment banks is, oh, I know that more people are going to be
• 15:14
  able to afford homes. So I'm going to scoop up even
• 15:16
  more homes than they already have.
• 15:17
  So, you know, show me the incentives and I'll show you the
• 15:19
  outcomes. Not only will more people try
• 15:22
  and buy homes in order to hold on to them for a year, 2 years,
• 15:25
  five year, whatever it may be to flip them to make a ton of money
• 15:28
  because, you know, more participate are coming in
• 15:30
  because they're going to get approved for these 50 year
• 15:32
  mortgages. So ultimately, I kind of
• 15:34
  completely disagree. Trump here.
• 15:36
  And I know, you know, Trump is obviously historic real estate
• 15:39
  investor. I just don't understand how he's
• 15:42
  missing the forest from the trees here, not understanding
• 15:44
  how this is going to only make homes more expensive and even
• 15:47
  less people are going to be able to get into the already limited
• 15:49
  supply of homes we here and have here in the United States.
• 15:53
  Exactly. Now, something what we're
• 15:54
  talking about the banks and the housing market drama we're
• 15:57
  watching right now is let's not forget what's kind of happened
• 16:02
  earlier in the year. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the
• 16:06
  Federal Housing Finance Agency, directed these institutions to
• 16:11
  begin considering accepting Bitcoin as collateral for a down
• 16:17
  payment on mortgages. Now obviously this would make
• 16:21
  buying a home a lot more easy. As someone who is right now
• 16:26
  trying to buy a shit coin, a home without selling my Bitcoin,
• 16:30
  I can tell you right now it's difficult.
• 16:33
  It's not easy, but I think moves like this, regulations like this
• 16:38
  being talked about in America is again, I want to we want to show
• 16:41
  you guys both sides of the argument today.
• 16:43
  This is a positive. Maybe again, I could be missing
• 16:46
  something. There's also a conspiratorial
• 16:47
  angle to this story, Chris. But if we're at least
• 16:51
  normalizing the idea of using Bitcoin as a down payment to get
• 16:56
  a mortgage, that obviously on the flip side of the argument,
• 16:59
  this is potentially going to be something that maybe helps the
• 17:03
  everyday person get into the housing market.
• 17:06
  Chris, am I, am I missing something there?
• 17:08
  What's your thoughts on that? No, you know, I think there's a
• 17:12
  couple companies, there's Hoseki that comes to mind.
• 17:14
  They're a company that basically, if you're a Bitcoiner
• 17:16
  that doesn't want to sell your Bitcoin.
• 17:18
  But obviously banks nowadays, maybe this has changed since the
• 17:20
  Trump admin's gotten in, but I don't think so.
• 17:22
  Like, obviously if you have a ton of Bitcoin, you don't have
• 17:24
  much Fiat cash and you know, you're doing Bitcoin jobs, you
• 17:27
  know, you're getting paid in Bitcoin and stuff.
• 17:29
  They don't see that as an asset. I think right now the rules are
• 17:32
  that you need to sell, sell your Bitcoin into cash and then leave
• 17:35
  it in a bank for 30, up to 30 days to count as a down deposit
• 17:39
  or, you know, even as paying on a home.
• 17:40
  And then even then, I'm sure you're going to get a laundry
• 17:43
  list of questions of saying where'd this money come from?
• 17:45
  Where did this large sum of money that you came out of
• 17:47
  nowhere? If you're selling, if you're
• 17:48
  trying to buy a $500,000 house, you want to put 20% down, that's
• 17:51
  100K. So if you don't want to sell
• 17:53
  your Bitcoin, I know Hoseki basically says like they do an
• 17:56
  attestation of your assets, meaning that they basically take
• 17:58
  your assets. They say we verified on chain.
• 18:01
  They've done a sign message saying this is my Bitcoin, I
• 18:03
  hold this and I'm willing to use this as assets.
• 18:06
  And they basically vouch and they give this nice letter
• 18:08
  saying like, hey, this is assets that this guy owns and he wants
• 18:11
  to use this in order for paying for a down payment for the
• 18:14
  house. I'm drawing a blank on the other
• 18:16
  company that basically does Bitcoin backed mortgages.
• 18:19
  So basically you put up a down payment of cash, you put up a
• 18:22
  little bit of Bitcoin as well. And basically it helps you
• 18:24
  adjust your interest rates on this.
• 18:26
  And it's kind of a cool concept. I'm drawing a complete blank on
• 18:28
  it. But to your point, and if you
• 18:31
  want to put your tinfoil hat on, if you're open this up to other
• 18:33
  crypto assets, you know, I think a lot of people are going to get
• 18:36
  caught off sides. You know, if you bought XY and Z
• 18:39
  coin and you know, you're like, oh, this is such a great
• 18:42
  investment. It's gone up a little bit and
• 18:43
  then it tanks. Well, that's something that's
• 18:45
  tied to your home. And like the last thing you want
• 18:47
  to do is like forfeiture or forfeit the your home because of
• 18:51
  your cryptocurrency. Got value?
• 18:54
  Exactly. And again, what do we always say
• 18:57
  about Bitcoin? You buy Bitcoin and you never
• 18:59
  sell it. That's the simple rules about
• 19:01
  Bitcoin. And this is kind of what we're
• 19:03
  seeing back to what we were talking about earlier with these
• 19:06
  large institutions. Love this charts.
• 19:10
  Again, shout out to everybody making these really cool charts
• 19:12
  on Twitter. But this shows on the left.
• 19:15
  Again, it's going to be a little bit tough for you guys to read,
• 19:17
  but this has some of the largest institutions who again offer us
• 19:22
  the mortgages. Chris, This is again why I kind
• 19:24
  of, I like to watch what these banks are doing.
• 19:27
  But you can see JP Morgan Chase simplify asset management.
• 19:31
  You can see some massive asset managers and banks on this list
• 19:36
  and the trend is pretty clear. A lot of these guys are
• 19:39
  increasing their holdings quarter after quarter.
• 19:42
  They don't care about the price. They're buying more Bitcoin,
• 19:45
  which is, again, I think this is the trend.
• 19:47
  This is the signal that I think a lot of you guys should be
• 19:51
  paying very, very, very close attention to.
• 19:53
  Now we want to talk a little bit more about the banks later on in
• 19:57
  the show, Chris, but I think before we get to that, we want
• 20:00
  to give a big shout out to today's.
• 20:02
  Partner, that is of course the Bitcoin well, we believe they
• 20:05
  are the best place to buy Bitcoin because they encourage
• 20:09
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• 20:12
  problems in Bitcoin today is the fact that we've got millions of
• 20:15
  coins sat on exchanges like Coinbase and Binance.
• 20:20
  Again, we love the Bitcoin well because they're Bitcoin only if
• 20:22
  they encourage self custody. And if you sign up with the
• 20:25
  Bitcoin well, by scanning that QR code on screen, you can go
• 20:29
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• 20:32
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• 20:36
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• 20:40
  And we're going to get into a little bit more of the bank
• 20:42
  stuff in a moment for you guys. I want to give a shout out to
• 20:53
  our partner Stamp seed. Is your Bitcoin and cold storage
• 20:56
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• 21:19
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• 21:22
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• 21:32
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• 21:58
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• 22:07
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• 22:10
  Now, Chris, I do want to talk a little bit more about the banks
• 22:13
  before we get let's, I don't want to say controversial, but I
• 22:17
  want to touch on a couple of touchy topics in the Bitcoin
• 22:20
  space. Oh, you're in.
• 22:22
  OK, Well, that was easy. I didn't have to twist your arm
• 22:25
  too much. Now I wanted to talk a little
• 22:26
  bit more about the banks because again, it's not just Jamie
• 22:29
  Dimon, it's not just JP Morgan. We've got other huge banks.
• 22:35
  Sofi bank, again, a massive bank.
• 22:37
  Now, again, I, I think the end game here is kind of this
• 22:40
  article that we shared earlier. I think eventually a lot of the
• 22:44
  banks who offer us the mortgages, they're going to be
• 22:46
  custody and Bitcoin in the long run.
• 22:48
  I just don't see how things take a different pivot or a different
• 22:53
  direction, which is again, long term, why I'm incredibly bullish
• 22:58
  on Bitcoin. And I just think all these
• 22:59
  dominoes we continue to see, it's just more confirmation
• 23:02
  that, you know, these big banks, they're going to be forced to do
• 23:06
  it again. This headline kind of sums it up
• 23:08
  nicely. JP Morgan quietly lands 2
• 23:11
  million share position in a Bitcoin company.
• 23:14
  Again, this is all happening while most people are just super
• 23:18
  focused, hyper focused on the price.
• 23:21
  Again, here's another really cool chart.
• 23:23
  Shout out to Sani. This is looking at the Bitcoin
• 23:26
  ETFs top holders. So who holds the BlackRock
• 23:30
  Bitcoin ETF or the Fidelity ETF? Have a look at the names
• 23:34
  Millennium management, Jane St. Group, Goldman Sachs.
• 23:39
  These are all huge banks. Morgan Stanley, BlackRock.
• 23:44
  This is just I, I, Chris, I want you a thought.
• 23:47
  So what are your thoughts on some of these biggest banks so
• 23:51
  quietly just buying up massive stakes in these ETFs?
• 23:57
  I think that they think they're buying into Bitcoin, but maybe
• 24:00
  this is my tinfoil hat and being a little conspiratorial, I think
• 24:04
  that a lot of them don't understand the risk.
• 24:06
  So they think they're getting Bitcoin, They think they're
• 24:08
  getting Bitcoin exposure. They may be getting Bitcoin and
• 24:10
  Bitcoin exposure, obviously to the price through these
• 24:13
  vehicles, these ETFs. But I think at the end of the
• 24:15
  day, we need to practice what we preach here.
• 24:17
  Run your own node, buy your Bitcoin, take it into self
• 24:20
  custody yourself. Because I think in the long run,
• 24:22
  like right now, obviously we could say they're at parity or
• 24:25
  oh, there's even more convenience because we hear all
• 24:27
  these stories or all this fun like you hear it all the time on
• 24:30
  Twitter. People like, oh, I lost my
• 24:31
  Bitcoin or Oh my God, social engineer or I got hacked.
• 24:35
  Even people like Mark Cuban, remember like a year and a half
• 24:37
  ago when he said he got this e-mail or text from Google and
• 24:40
  then like basically he got, they got into all his accounts and
• 24:43
  stuff. And it's like, yeah, this guy's
• 24:44
  a billionaire. This guy's supposed to be like
• 24:45
  the brightest of the bright, you know, such a great investor, so
• 24:48
  smart on Shark Tank. And he even got fleeced by the
• 24:51
  social engineering. So it just goes like to show
• 24:53
  like stay calm, don't act rationally.
• 24:55
  Do not enter your seed words or private key into anything
• 24:59
  electronic ever. You know, obviously hold your
• 25:01
  own Bitcoin wallet, like using like 1 of responsers like Vicki
• 25:04
  and stuff like that. But at the end of the day, what
• 25:08
  you want to do is you want to self custody your Bitcoin.
• 25:10
  So you want to, you know, hold it yourself.
• 25:13
  And I think that that risk parity or that premium on spot
• 25:17
  Bitcoin versus ETFs or other assets or all these treasury
• 25:20
  companies is going to be very apparent in 1020 or 30 years
• 25:23
  from now when people are like, no, I don't want you to pledge
• 25:26
  your, your stock ticker for the asset.
• 25:29
  Like I want to hold the true Bitcoin.
• 25:30
  It's kind of the same thing with gold.
• 25:32
  It's like you'd much rather have gold the assets than gold the
• 25:35
  stock ticker versus a company that pays for equipment to do
• 25:39
  gold mining. Like it's like different like
• 25:41
  levels of risk. And I think a lot of people
• 25:43
  think that they're the same or even they, they say the ETS,
• 25:46
  they kind of flooded saying, oh, it's easier I buy it there and I
• 25:48
  don't have to worry about any other risks.
• 25:50
  I don't think that's true. Obviously we've talked about all
• 25:53
  the time the 61-O2 attack and things like that, like obviously
• 25:57
  self custom your Bitcoin, there's more quote UN quote risk
• 26:00
  or there's more responsibility that comes with that.
• 26:02
  But at the end of the day, I think that's the much, much
• 26:03
  better path. And I think a lot of these
• 26:05
  institutions think that they're not as much risk.
• 26:08
  But I think you want to be a company that I wouldn't say you
• 26:11
  want to be the one that custody's Bitcoin because
• 26:14
  there's risk in that if you own it for other clients.
• 26:16
  But if they're in a much better position costing it like a coin
• 26:18
  base or like a bitwise ETF that custodies their own Bitcoin than
• 26:23
  people that are buying the bitwise ETF or the the ibit
• 26:26
  excuse me ibit ETF and thinking that they own the Bitcoin.
• 26:29
  But that's just my 2. Cents yeah, I think as we see,
• 26:33
  you know more options, more solutions come into the space I
• 26:36
  I, I just I think a lot of people are going to get their
• 26:38
  hands on Bitcoin, you know in a lot easier way so here we go
• 26:41
  Sofi rolls out crypto trading for retail customers.
• 26:45
  I kind of saw this news this morning.
• 26:48
  I was like, OK, so far, another bank getting into Bitcoin.
• 26:51
  I didn't realize I had 12 million customers.
• 26:54
  That's kind of crazy. 12 million people.
• 26:56
  I can now get direct access to Bitcoin, which is again just
• 27:00
  another sign of the times here. More and more of these banks.
• 27:04
  It's nearly like when we start looking at the numbers, I
• 27:07
  believe more than 50% of the hedge funds around the world are
• 27:11
  also dabbling in Bitcoin and you know, month after month
• 27:15
  increasing their exposure. You look at the some of the
• 27:17
  largest asset managers around the world, Black Rock, Fidelity,
• 27:21
  there's very few except for our bank cards that haven't really
• 27:26
  rolled out Bitcoin yet. So I think this is just kind of
• 27:28
  a, this is the, but I, I think we all should be paying
• 27:33
  attention to there's some great comments in the chat.
• 27:37
  Trade is be trading. A lot of people are very focused
• 27:40
  on the chart of Bitcoin because I think it's, it's doing some
• 27:44
  things that we haven't really seen do before.
• 27:46
  Like normally a year and a half, we kind of alluded to this
• 27:50
  earlier. Bitcoin's typically topped, you
• 27:53
  know, at this stage, you know, 1218 months after halving.
• 27:57
  Right now we're in October, November, actually we're
• 28:00
  November 11th and we haven't even seen a bull run, maybe a
• 28:04
  slight pivot, an unplanned pivot.
• 28:07
  Chris, what are your thoughts on the four year cycle and what are
• 28:09
  your thoughts on the past 12 to 18 months?
• 28:12
  Yeah, I think I don't know if that cycles are dead.
• 28:15
  I've been a big cycle guy myself.
• 28:17
  I do think that it's true. But when you bring in
• 28:19
  institutional investors, when you have the President of the
• 28:22
  United States mentioning it and like it's a big part of I think
• 28:25
  why he got in the office. I think that, you know, it
• 28:28
  changes the dynamics of what it can be.
• 28:31
  Luke, I actually have a question for you here.
• 28:32
  So this is kind of throwing it back in your direction.
• 28:34
  So obviously when the ETF's launched and what is that
• 28:36
  January of 2024, it was basically like a lot of times
• 28:41
  they're suggesting 1/4 percent, half a percent up to 1%.
• 28:44
  Now they've slowly raised their estimates of like, hey, you can
• 28:47
  go anywhere from 2 to 5%. Let's just say 5% being, you
• 28:50
  know, very aggressive in terms of institutional institutions.
• 28:53
  But let's just say we go on a true bull run or we have like
• 28:56
  the Bitcoin price 2 XS over the next 12 to 18 months.
• 28:59
  Let's just say hypothetically, do you think that we always have
• 29:02
  downward pressure on the Bitcoin price and it's kind of narrowed
• 29:04
  the cycles, obviously, because it, let's just say you're an
• 29:07
  institutional investor, you put 5%, you listen to the guidance
• 29:10
  and you say, hey, I'm more risk like, you know, I'm more willing
• 29:13
  to take risk. I put 5%, but then all of a
• 29:15
  sudden it double S and it's now 10% of my position or, you know,
• 29:18
  around 10% of my position. With Bitcoin doubling so fast,
• 29:21
  maybe the market doesn't go as quick with that.
• 29:23
  So, you know, it's 10% or near that 10% mark.
• 29:26
  Do you think that the institution's rebalance at that
• 29:28
  point down to, hey, we're going to pull it back down to 5% or
• 29:31
  pull it to 7%? Do you think that that causes
• 29:33
  downward pressure that we don't get the high high highs, but we
• 29:36
  also don't get the low lows because of this?
• 29:37
  So that's my pitch to you, Luke. Yeah, it's a really interesting
• 29:40
  question If if straight off the top of my big noggin, I'm
• 29:45
  probably going to take a stab and say like firstly, I didn't
• 29:48
  think anybody can model the price of Bitcoin.
• 29:50
  We're going to talk about this later, but I think it's really
• 29:53
  difficult to to say, OK, we know what's going to happen because
• 29:57
  British Huddle makes a really good point.
• 29:59
  We've got three data points that show that we're seeing like
• 30:02
  diminishing returns and Bitcoin has these ramp ups and it has a
• 30:07
  crash. Now obviously, you know, it's
• 30:09
  fair to say that until Bitcoin does something different, it's,
• 30:13
  you know, it's, we have to just assume what happened previously.
• 30:16
  It's probably going to repeat that argument.
• 30:18
  It's it's, you know, it's, it's not something you can just
• 30:21
  dismiss unless you can point to something on the chart or in the
• 30:25
  data and the fundamentals and say something has changed.
• 30:30
  Now, what is Bitcoin? It's money, it's prices driven
• 30:32
  by supply and demand. Now, to answer your question,
• 30:36
  we've got a completely different source of demand in the market
• 30:39
  today. We've got institutions, we've
• 30:41
  got billionaires, we've got hedge funds.
• 30:43
  Now it is true to your question that some of these hedge funds
• 30:46
  and banks are probably going to be Fiat Maxis.
• 30:49
  They're probably going to trim, they're probably going to sell.
• 30:52
  And you know, I think it's really tough to know whether
• 30:55
  that is going to dampen the upside and the downside.
• 30:58
  What I think is interesting that for every lettuce handed
• 31:02
  institution we see, you also see a new Michael Saylor pop up.
• 31:07
  So it's not just lonely old Michael Saylor with 600,000
• 31:11
  coins who stepped into the market and doesn't appear to be
• 31:15
  selling, but you now have got other institutions like
• 31:17
  BlackRock. So BlackRock holds over 800,000
• 31:20
  coins, that's 4% of the supply. Michael's got 3% of the supply
• 31:24
  and both of those entities, again, BlackRock holds the
• 31:28
  Bitcoin for a lot of individuals.
• 31:30
  I get that argument. But even in these twenty 3040%
• 31:33
  corrections we've seen in this bull run in the price of
• 31:36
  Bitcoin, it's not like BlackRock is dumping 25% of the Bitcoin
• 31:42
  under custody. It's seen very little outflows
• 31:45
  and drawdowns in these bull runs.
• 31:48
  So I think again, price is set at the margin.
• 31:52
  My, my mental model for Bitcoin is volatilities going to
• 31:56
  actually rise from here? I, I don't know when that's
• 32:00
  going to happen. I'm, I'm not selling everybody a
• 32:03
  power law model to trade and multiply their bitcoins like the
• 32:06
  creator tweets about all the time.
• 32:10
  I, I don't know what's going to come.
• 32:12
  I, I think it's peak hubris to say that we can use the past 16
• 32:15
  years of data and extrapolate that out folds.
• 32:19
  But I, I, I think volatility will increase and, and I think
• 32:23
  the more that these institutions come into the market and the
• 32:26
  smaller that the float is of Bitcoin.
• 32:30
  So this is the Bitcoin on exchanges.
• 32:32
  This is what actually dictates price.
• 32:34
  Again, price is set at the margins.
• 32:36
  The smaller that gets, the more unsure I am of what's going to
• 32:40
  happen. Again, I'm not ruling out a 90%
• 32:43
  bear market. I, I think it could still
• 32:45
  happen. I, I there's even an argument to
• 32:48
  be had that maybe the biggest banks who are in the space right
• 32:52
  now might, again, just speculating that maybe it's in
• 32:55
  their best wishes to orchestrate a crash like that.
• 32:59
  There's a lot of really interesting theories about what
• 33:01
  happens with that flash crash about 31 days ago and all of the
• 33:06
  shenanigans happening on Binance and certain exchanges and
• 33:10
  obviously CZ getting pardoned by Trump.
• 33:14
  What happened? Was there an agreement or a deal
• 33:16
  struck there? I don't know, But I, I think the
• 33:20
  smaller that the number of Bitcoin on exchanges gets, I
• 33:23
  might pull up my favorite chart. I think the more unpredictable
• 33:26
  the price will get. So I, I know I, I, I, I don't
• 33:30
  think I answered your, your question there, Chris, But for
• 33:32
  me, I think most people think that Bitcoin is getting more
• 33:36
  predictable. They're saying, look,
• 33:38
  diminishing returns, power law, we have this, what do they call
• 33:42
  it now, power curve channel. It's there's a lot of nonsense
• 33:46
  being talked about. I actually think Bitcoin's
• 33:49
  getting more unpredictable. That's again, that's not a
• 33:52
  popular take. I've had the same opinion for
• 33:55
  four years. And I just think the more that
• 33:57
  this chart drops, the less Bitcoin on exchanges there is, I
• 34:02
  think the less ability there is for these big exchanges to play
• 34:07
  paper games and suppression games.
• 34:10
  I think we're going to see Bitcoin's true price emerge when
• 34:14
  this float gets smaller and smaller again.
• 34:16
  Hey, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Bitcoin's true price is
• 34:19
  $150,000 and the power law is correct.
• 34:22
  I I don't know, but I'd love to pose the same question to you,
• 34:26
  to you, Chris, but what do you think about the institutions
• 34:29
  getting into the space? Will the pumps be as pumpy as
• 34:33
  they were in 2013 or 2017? And the same for the downside?
• 34:37
  What do you think? Has anything changed?
• 34:40
  I don't know. I, I mean, I do think it like
• 34:42
  Dan, like you're obviously you set a floor because there's
• 34:44
  buyers at much at lower prices when it goes lower.
• 34:46
  But I do think like as you get to the higher numbers, they're
• 34:50
  selling because they're like Fiat Maxis at the end of the
• 34:52
  day. I think in the long run, it's
• 34:53
  still going up into the right, but I just think it hampers the
• 34:56
  the volatile swings that we got of, you know, 21, 2017, 2013 and
• 35:01
  the previous errors. To your point, though, on this
• 35:03
  chart, though, price on all assets is set at the margin,
• 35:06
  meaning that like as the supply dwindles down, you know, you can
• 35:10
  get these massive spikes up or massive drawbacks, you know, as
• 35:14
  the asset is becoming smaller and smaller in terms of the
• 35:18
  viable amount of supply on the market.
• 35:21
  So I do think obviously if it starts ripping to the upside,
• 35:23
  people obviously sell their asset to, you know, as it rips.
• 35:27
  But I do think as it's showing Bitcoin non exchange is getting
• 35:30
  smaller, small. That's only a good thing for the
• 35:32
  plebs and people that are stacking humbly.
• 35:34
  Yeah, and I mean, that's that's that's essentially what this
• 35:37
  channel is all about, buying Bitcoin, understanding Bitcoin
• 35:40
  and understanding why you should take self custody.
• 35:42
  So again, let's put that caveat out there before we put our
• 35:45
  little chat boy hats on, Chris, because we're talking about
• 35:48
  cycles. I want to talk about this chart.
• 35:50
  I like again, this is the chart that a lot of people right now
• 35:53
  are thinking about. Every single time we see a
• 35:55
  halving, which is in the blue lines.
• 35:58
  Bitcoins typically seen a parabolic rise after us, but we
• 36:02
  saw the halving what's well over a year ago now and bitcoins
• 36:07
  behaving a little bit differently.
• 36:09
  I think if I put this in the monthly, it might be a little
• 36:11
  bit clearer to see. But This is why a lot of people
• 36:13
  are now beginning to, you know, ask the question, what is
• 36:16
  happening? Is Bitcoin different?
• 36:18
  I've seen some Bitcoiners draw some funny lines on a chart.
• 36:22
  They're not doing TA. They're just saying, look, this
• 36:24
  is kind of strange that bitcoins just stair stepping higher in
• 36:27
  this very predictable fashion. It's moving up 50%, having a 20%
• 36:32
  pullback. It's very different to the days
• 36:35
  of 2020 where Bitcoin saw a 20X in nine months like we did see.
• 36:40
  So again, like right now, my mental model is Bitcoin is
• 36:45
  becoming more unpredictable as time goes on.
• 36:48
  And I just think Bitcoin's total addressable market cap is it's
• 36:53
  so much bigger than most people think.
• 36:55
  So I just think just when Bitcoin looks as if it's lower
• 37:01
  volatility, it's easier to predict institutions are here,
• 37:04
  volatility will be damned. When I start seeing those
• 37:07
  narratives, that's when I start bracing myself for surprises
• 37:12
  because this is what all markets do.
• 37:14
  This isn't just a Bitcoin thing, but all markets will punish the
• 37:18
  consensus opinion. All markets will surprise
• 37:23
  everybody. And right now the consensus
• 37:25
  opinion I see is but diminishing returns, power law, power curve,
• 37:30
  all hail the PhDs and the experts in the space.
• 37:33
  They can predict everything perfectly.
• 37:35
  And I'm just cognizant of those narratives.
• 37:38
  I'm just cautioning people who knows the power law could hold
• 37:42
  for the next 4 years. It absolutely it could hold.
• 37:45
  There's a 10 or 20% chance that could happen.
• 37:48
  I, I'm just more worried about the, the, the next thing, what,
• 37:53
  what could happen next. That's just my thoughts on the
• 37:55
  charts there, Chris. Yeah, no, I agree.
• 37:59
  OK. So we got some more interesting
• 38:01
  news as well. Again, we're talking about the
• 38:03
  banks a lot today. You mentioned it earlier, Chris.
• 38:06
  A lot of these institutions are talking about the optimal
• 38:09
  allocation to Bitcoin. We've seen some interesting
• 38:12
  things come out surrounding BlackRock over the years.
• 38:15
  BlackRock have said a one to 2% allocation to Bitcoin is fine.
• 38:21
  I'm more interested in this 2023 report that I believe they
• 38:26
  originally published for their Insider clients a little while
• 38:33
  ago here because they ran a study between 2011 and 2021 and
• 38:39
  their analysts said, look, the optimal allocation to Bitcoin
• 38:43
  over those 10 years was actually 84.9%.
• 38:48
  And that's pretty wild coming out about BlackRock.
• 38:52
  Who knows, maybe they came out and said, look, let's check
• 38:54
  ourselves here. Let's be conservative publicly
• 38:58
  and restate that, oh, just one to 2% is reasonable.
• 39:02
  Also to that kind of answers that loop that you brought up
• 39:04
  earlier, Chris, what happens to these allocations?
• 39:08
  Do they rise in a bull run? Do they shrink in a bull run?
• 39:11
  I'm not sure. But for me, my mental model is
• 39:14
  I'm always questioning what these banks are saying publicly
• 39:19
  and I'm watching what they're doing privately because this
• 39:23
  report where they said, look, 84.9% Bitcoin allocation, I
• 39:28
  believe this was originally a private report for their clients
• 39:32
  and eventually got leaked publicly, which really makes you
• 39:36
  think, hang on a minute. We all know that Jamie Dimon has
• 39:39
  been, how can I say this diplomatically on a live stream?
• 39:44
  He's been, he's been putting some water on our back and
• 39:47
  telling us it's raining for some time, publicly saying, look, I
• 39:51
  don't want to talk about Bitcoin.
• 39:53
  Satoshi Nakamoto might change the rules of Bitcoin.
• 39:55
  And one day he appears and goes, poof, there's more than 21
• 39:58
  million coins. But privately he's buying.
• 40:00
  So that's kind of my thoughts on allocations, Chris.
• 40:04
  I think a lot of these institutions.
• 40:05
  If they're saying and if they're getting off 0 and jumping to a
• 40:10
  1%, two percent, 3% allocation publicly, my money is probably
• 40:16
  betting that they probably hold a lot more privately.
• 40:20
  Yeah, it's, it's like the inverse Kramer effect.
• 40:22
  Or, you know, watch what they do, not what they say.
• 40:24
  When Jim Cramer's saying sell, sell, sell, it's probably a good
• 40:26
  time to buy. When he's saying to buy, it's
• 40:27
  probably a good time to sell. Absolutely.
• 40:30
  Yeah, the inverse, Kramer. I saw the inverse, not the
• 40:34
  inverse, but I saw the Nancy tracker recently because
• 40:38
  obviously she recently retired and I forget the exact
• 40:41
  statistics, but she had a net worth of hundreds of millions of
• 40:46
  dollars while supposedly only what, earning a wage of about
• 40:51
  100,000 a year. It doesn't really make sense.
• 40:54
  The math just doesn't quite math.
• 40:56
  But I want to talk a little bit more about so far, Chris, Again,
• 41:00
  we're talking about the banks. We're tracking the banks today.
• 41:02
  We're watching them. I believe we've got a clip about
• 41:05
  so far on the national news. We want to play.
• 41:07
  It's nice to see you Sir, in person.
• 41:10
  Good to see you as well. OK, so what's going on here?
• 41:12
  This is a big deal. Yeah, this morning, big deal for
• 41:14
  you. It is a very big deal.
• 41:15
  It's a big day and a big milestone reverses the course of
• 41:19
  time. It does.
• 41:20
  We've wanted to be a one stop shop for all your financial
• 41:22
  services needs. And one of the holes we've had
• 41:24
  for the last two years was in cryptocurrency, the ability to
• 41:27
  buy, sell and hold crypto. We were not allowed to do that
• 41:30
  as a bank. It was not permissible.
• 41:32
  But in March of this year, the OCC came out with an
• 41:34
  interpretive letter that it's now permissible for banks like
• 41:37
  Sofi to offer a cryptocurrency. So this morning we're launching
• 41:41
  as the only National Bank, the first and only National Bank,
• 41:43
  the opportunity to buy, sell and hold cryptocurrencies like
• 41:47
  Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana. So I was going to ask if we're
• 41:50
  just talking about 3 for now, we'll expand well beyond three.
• 41:53
  It'll be every broad assortment. We try to differentiate on being
• 41:56
  fast, having broad selection, great prices, ease of use.
• 41:59
  So we'll try to give members. So find members as much
• 42:02
  selection as they would like. And what's the difference
• 42:04
  between going through you and going through Coinbase?
• 42:07
  You're going through Robin Hood or somebody else?
• 42:09
  Yeah, there's a couple of really big differences.
• 42:11
  First, we're nationally charted bank, which means we have the
• 42:13
  infrastructure, the processes, the financial conditions that
• 42:16
  provides the safeguards that a consumer would expect from a
• 42:19
  bank, which is going to allow us to scale responsibly.
• 42:23
  The second thing is because we are a one stop shop, you can do
• 42:25
  all your banking, checking and savings at Sofi.
• 42:28
  You're borrowing and you're investing and now crypto.
• 42:30
  And one of the unique things about that is when you come to
• 42:33
  Sofi and fund your crypto investments, you'll fund them in
• 42:36
  a Sofi checking and savings account that checking savings
• 42:39
  accounts, deposits earn, earn interest.
• 42:41
  Say that again, you're going to fund it with crypto.
• 42:43
  You're going to fund your checking, you're going to fund
• 42:45
  your checking account with cash. And then when you buy right
• 42:48
  Bitcoin or Solano or Ethereum, the money will come straight out
• 42:52
  of your checking savings account.
• 42:53
  So when you're not putting cash to work, it's not sitting in an
• 42:56
  account that earns no interest and it's not sitting in an
• 42:58
  account that's not insured. So the money will sit in an FDIC
• 43:01
  insured account up to $2,000,000 is what we offer.
• 43:04
  And when you buy or instantly withdraw from that account and
• 43:06
  sending it to the marketplace. I don't think I I saw a comment
• 43:11
  that sums up that clip because again caveat, there was a lot of
• 43:16
  let's call it what it is shit coining in that interview crypto
• 43:19
  this crypto that again, we are Bitcoin and we're Bitcoin only,
• 43:23
  but I saw a buck 53,000 in the chat said never trust a guy in
• 43:26
  1/4 zip. Absolutely true.
• 43:28
  Never trust a guy in 1/4 zip or three quarter pants.
• 43:32
  And I think again, jokes aside, I I think this is again, just
• 43:35
  another confirmation. We've got another massive bank
• 43:39
  going on the national news, publicly advocating Bitcoin and,
• 43:44
  you know, embracing the quote UN quote space.
• 43:47
  Again, I'm bearish and all the other stuff, incredibly bullish
• 43:49
  on Bitcoin, but this kind of de risks it.
• 43:52
  So now a lot of these banks, billionaires, big boys and
• 43:56
  institutions who trust Sofi bank and their reputation, they see
• 44:00
  this guy go on the news and start pumping Bitcoin.
• 44:03
  They're all forced to look at Bitcoin.
• 44:05
  And then back to your question earlier, Chris, re evaluate the
• 44:09
  0% Bitcoin holding. And once you go from zero to 1,
• 44:13
  it's so much easier to go from A 1% allocation to a 10%
• 44:16
  allocation. Definitely there's something
• 44:19
  there's very interesting that he said in there, he said.
• 44:21
  Obviously the FDIC insurance rates on savings and checking
• 44:25
  his accounts is $250,000 or 500,000 dollars, 250 for single
• 44:30
  people, 500,000 for married couples.
• 44:32
  But it's very interesting. He mentioned $2,000,000.
• 44:34
  So I'm like, and then he was saying like you take your
• 44:37
  checking account, you buy Bitcoin, you're insured up to
• 44:39
  $2,000,000. I mean, I mean, if that's true,
• 44:42
  that's awesome. You know, it's like almost like
• 44:43
  a 10X of or like AI guess an 8X of like de risking, you know, if
• 44:49
  you're saying up to $2,000,000 that you're insured.
• 44:50
  But I just don't know how they're insuring it, what the
• 44:53
  insurance entails. If they, if you know, they send
• 44:55
  the Bitcoin to the wrong address, like you buy it in
• 44:57
  their account and it's they're still holding it for you.
• 44:59
  Like am I insured for rug pool risk?
• 45:01
  Am I insured for hacking risk? Like I don't know.
• 45:05
  And the government didn't come out with a new rule or law
• 45:07
  saying that they have to insure this or what it is.
• 45:09
  So very interesting. It's definitely something I want
• 45:11
  to dig into like you and I agree with though, like a lot of shit
• 45:14
  coining in that statement and statements that he was saying.
• 45:17
  So I'd say, you know, obviously buy Bitcoin self custody
• 45:19
  yourself. You're much, much better
• 45:21
  position than doing it through any bank.
• 45:24
  Yes, I'm never trusting of rug pool risk.
• 45:26
  I like that one, Chris. Let's dive into that in a
• 45:29
  moment, just after the news break.
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• 48:10
  OK, So before we get into a triggering conversation, Chris,
• 48:16
  I wanted to quickly dive into some more news that we saw come
• 48:19
  out this week. So again, this is we have a
• 48:23
  little bit more clarity on a draft of the crypto legislation
• 48:28
  bill. This has been something that's
• 48:30
  been on the table for a little while now.
• 48:32
  We can see the House passed its version of a bill to regulate
• 48:36
  the crypto industry in July. This is called the Digital Asset
• 48:40
  Market Clarity Act or just clarity for short.
• 48:43
  Since then, the Senate has been working on its own legislation.
• 48:48
  Now we've got the Senate Banking Committee led by the Republicans
• 48:51
  has a draft that looks to allocate jurisdiction between
• 48:55
  the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the CFTC, as well
• 49:01
  as creating new term for ancillary.
• 49:04
  That's a tongue twister assets to clarify which
• 49:07
  cryptocurrencies are not securities again, I oh boy, I've
• 49:13
  got spicy takes on which is a security and which is not.
• 49:17
  I'll save those for a moment. Chris, what do you think about
• 49:20
  this bill and again, this ongoing discussion about, you
• 49:23
  know, what's a security, what's a cryptocurrency, what's a
• 49:27
  commodity? It's a it's a long standing
• 49:29
  debate in the space, but it looks as if it's about to get a
• 49:32
  little bit more spicy. Yeah, I mean, in my opinion, the
• 49:35
  Howie test was invented in what, the 1920s, nineteen 30s?
• 49:38
  And I think that's the long standing rule of the law.
• 49:40
  I know many people in the crypto space, in the crypto space or
• 49:44
  even just in the tech sector arguments like, Oh well, we
• 49:47
  didn't have the Internet back then.
• 49:48
  We didn't have all this technology that we've had back
• 49:50
  then. It's like, well, the law is
• 49:51
  still pretty clear and I don't think there's a reason to change
• 49:54
  it. Like I think it did its job and
• 49:56
  it's doing a good job describing it.
• 49:58
  I think many of the people want the to be the ability to fleece
• 50:02
  retail. I think that's immoral and wrong
• 50:04
  and, and, you know, arguably illegal.
• 50:06
  I know there hasn't been that many cases on it, but I do think
• 50:08
  it's illegal. And I think that they want to
• 50:10
  have their cake and eat it too. It's like, oh, you know, we're a
• 50:12
  commodity in this sense. But like, you know, in another
• 50:15
  time, it's like, oh, I want to pump my cryptocurrency and sell
• 50:17
  it as an equity to the market. Or you have VCs.
• 50:20
  What is it they say cost time to profits or whatever?
• 50:24
  Basically, like you can launch a cryptocoin in six to nine
• 50:26
  months. You're basically doubling your
• 50:28
  money or, you know, fleecing retail to get your money back
• 50:31
  and then some. So I, I think it's pretty black
• 50:35
  and white. A lot of people say there's a
• 50:36
  lot of Gray to it, but I don't think so.
• 50:38
  But we'll see. I do think that whenever the
• 50:40
  government gets involved with anything, though, Republican,
• 50:42
  Democrat, independent, doesn't matter.
• 50:44
  When the government puts more rules and restrictions, there's
• 50:46
  always it's, I wouldn't say nefarious because I wouldn't
• 50:50
  describe what's nefarious, what you can describe to Idiocracy
• 50:54
  or, you know, idiocy. But I do think that they're
• 50:58
  going to add more rules and laws and I don't think they're going
• 51:00
  to be beneficial to everyday users.
• 51:03
  I mean, even look at the unfortunate state of events of
• 51:06
  the Bitcoin fog case, the the mixer and Roman Sterlingoff.
• 51:10
  You look at the Ronan Dojo or not Ronan Dojo.
• 51:15
  I'm drawing a freaking blank on what samurais.
• 51:18
  Thank you Samurai, the Samurai developers that unfortunately
• 51:22
  pled guilty because it didn't look like it was going to rule
• 51:24
  in their favor. And there it looks like they're
• 51:25
  getting the Max sentence of five years as well as they I think
• 51:29
  have to pay each individually 250,500 thousand on top of their
• 51:33
  business getting seized, which was close to six and a half
• 51:35
  million dollars. So the government basically got
• 51:37
  a free payday of close to seven and a half, $1,000,000 and they
• 51:40
  have to serve five years in jail.
• 51:41
  Obviously, you know, I think many people in the Bitcoin
• 51:43
  industry and crypto industry at large are hopeful that President
• 51:47
  Trump can pardon them like he did with CZ, like he did with
• 51:50
  Ross Ulbricht. But, you know, I do think it's a
• 51:52
  long shot. And I hope that they don't have
• 51:53
  to be in jail for all five years.
• 51:56
  But we'll see. Yeah.
• 51:57
  Like, while they're trying to say, like, Bitcoin's free open
• 51:59
  source and they're promoting all this, they're clamping down, you
• 52:02
  know, the Biden administration carrying over even to the Trump
• 52:04
  administration of carrying down or the DOJ carrying down these
• 52:07
  indictments and these cases. So I wish that was not the case,
• 52:10
  but that's the unfortunate reality.
• 52:14
  Yeah, I mean, great point, Chris.
• 52:16
  I, I'm going to try to rein myself in so I don't get too
• 52:18
  triggered, but we've got all these states in America pushing
• 52:22
  out digital IDs and digital driver's licenses and all of
• 52:27
  these shenanigans. We've got CZ Binance again,
• 52:33
  charitable description of CZ Binance.
• 52:36
  He's created a innovative crypto exchange, not so charitable.
• 52:41
  Maybe he's pumping and dumping all sorts of different cryptos
• 52:44
  and he's created a casino that's, let's just say getting a
• 52:48
  lot of retail people fleeced. He gets a pardon that people who
• 52:53
  are creating code that helps people get some financial
• 52:57
  privacy. They're getting the Max sentence
• 53:01
  again. I, I'm, I'm Australian, if the
• 53:03
  accent doesn't give it away, I, I'm not a I'm not an expert on
• 53:07
  the law and the judges and the judicial system in America, but
• 53:11
  that just doesn't pass the sniff test.
• 53:14
  That just shouldn't be happening.
• 53:16
  If we have a Bitcoin and freedom loving president.
• 53:21
  This is my take. Who knows what's going to happen
• 53:23
  there. A quick other thought that I had
• 53:25
  on the SEC and the CFTC stuff was I think you summed it up
• 53:30
  here, Chris. We've got a singular, we've got
• 53:33
  a singular test that tells us what's a security and what's a
• 53:36
  not. So how we test.
• 53:38
  But here as we're having this debate over the CFTC and the
• 53:41
  SEC, we can see here, oh, the CFTC only has 543 full time
• 53:47
  staff compared to the 4200 at the SEC.
• 53:52
  And the posturing here Chris, that I can see coming down the
• 53:55
  pipeline is, oh, we need more money.
• 53:57
  We need more money. We need to, we need to fleece
• 54:00
  the citizens some more because the CFTC has 543 people.
• 54:05
  But I think you concluded pretty accurately a moment ago, I don't
• 54:09
  think you need employees. We have the Howie test.
• 54:12
  It's pretty clear that we got 1 commodity in the space and
• 54:15
  20,000 laps. That's what we got literal laps.
• 54:21
  Before I start talking about laps a little bit more because
• 54:25
  we we might be entering the controversial era of this show,
• 54:30
  I think we should give one more shout outs to our sponsors that
• 54:34
  keep us on the air and then we're going to get a little bit
• 54:36
  more spicy with some charts, four year cycle discussions and
• 54:40
  some power load discussions. I want to give a shout out to
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  So Bitcoin is absolutely all about freedom.
• 56:49
  A lot of people say it's digital money, digital gold.
• 56:54
  A lot of people say that's, oh, the power law confirms that it's
• 56:58
  digital gold because we have this perfect channel that can
• 57:02
  supposedly predict the Bitcoin price.
• 57:04
  Chris, I probably want your thoughts on the topic before
• 57:06
  mine because I could potentially get a little bit more unhinged,
• 57:10
  but what are your thoughts on this chart when you see it?
• 57:13
  I mean, this is just, this is the power law chart basically.
• 57:17
  Yeah. So I don't know, I think I
• 57:21
  learned in engineering school. I'll I'll resort to my my
• 57:24
  education and my engineering background.
• 57:25
  So in engineering, there is this great quote and it basically
• 57:29
  goes all charts are wrong. Most chart, some charts are
• 57:34
  useful, most charts are dangerous.
• 57:36
  And I think that's a good sum up of like all charts, all rules
• 57:41
  all like, you know, different things like that.
• 57:44
  Do you know you are familiar with the Challenger explosion
• 57:46
  that happened in the 80's, the NASA rocket that blew up and
• 57:49
  killed, I forget how many astronauts, like 10 or 11
• 57:51
  astronauts. So basically they, I'll give a
• 57:54
  simple explanation for everyone. So basically there was these O
• 57:56
  rings that they used on the Challenger ship, and it's one of
• 58:00
  the first things that we learned in engineering school when I was
• 58:03
  a freshman in college. So basically they had this chart
• 58:05
  and basically it showed the elasticity of these O rings,
• 58:09
  these rubber O rings, like a $0.50 item on this.
• 58:12
  And it basically had the elasticity of them with a
• 58:15
  temperature curve. And so it had a band of like,
• 58:18
  you know, upwards of 100 hundred 10° and then it went all the way
• 58:22
  down to like 40 or 45°. Well, it was unreasonably cold
• 58:27
  in Texas. I think it fell into like the
• 58:29
  mid 30s, like, you know, uncharacteristically cold.
• 58:34
  And basically they assumed that it followed this straight line
• 58:36
  of like, OK, it becomes less elastic, it becomes a little bit
• 58:38
  more brittle. But what they didn't know on the
• 58:40
  chart, because they didn't have the testing or the data for it,
• 58:41
  they just assumed that it followed this same curve.
• 58:44
  Well, what they didn't do when they did testing afterwards,
• 58:46
  after the Challenger explosion, it actually breaks.
• 58:48
  The chart breaks, meaning that it shows that the elasticity is
• 58:51
  too brittle and it causes it to break.
• 58:53
  So when the Challenger took off these O rings, like I said,
• 58:55
  they're 50 Cent dollar Max thing, they obviously exploded.
• 58:59
  And when they exploded, the air and the fuel combined and caused
• 59:02
  the explosion that blew up the challenger.
• 59:04
  I greatly simplified that to try and not go into all the
• 59:06
  engineering of it. But basically, when you assume
• 59:09
  you make an ass of you and me and you know, in in science, in
• 59:12
  mathematics and anything, if you're taking a chart and you're
• 59:15
  taking it as fact or, or like the word, you know, that's
• 59:19
  that's not the case. And I think it's even harder in
• 59:21
  economics when there's so many different factors of why an
• 59:25
  asset will move up and down. And so I do think that like,
• 59:29
  yeah, these charts are nice, They look cool.
• 59:31
  They're yeah, they're bullish, They pump you up.
• 59:33
  But like, I would not invent, like I would not keep my
• 59:36
  investing strategy or my loan strategy if I'm leveraging my
• 59:39
  Bitcoin or things like that off off a chart.
• 59:42
  Like I said, you know, people can fight and debate me and say
• 59:44
  that that's wrong or that's idiotic.
• 59:46
  But like, I just know what I've learned in my my school, my time
• 59:50
  and engineering. But yeah, I think it's a very
• 59:53
  bad take at doing it. Yeah, they're fun, You know,
• 59:55
  they're fun to debate and talk about.
• 59:56
  But I I wouldn't put my faith in something that's changing
• 1:00:00
  constantly. So I don't know, that's just my
• 1:00:02
  two cents. What are your thoughts, Luke?
• 1:00:03
  I've got a lot of thoughts. Firstly, I love Bill's thoughts.
• 1:00:05
  Never assume from the wazoo. I actually love never assume.
• 1:00:08
  You make an ass out of you and me.
• 1:00:10
  I like that one a lot. You've never heard that one?
• 1:00:12
  It's a good one. It is a good one for me.
• 1:00:14
  So for me, first principles, the power law doesn't make sense
• 1:00:18
  because it does the math doesn't math.
• 1:00:20
  So if you do the math, if you have a look at the power law,
• 1:00:23
  it's predicting $4 million Bitcoin by 2040.
• 1:00:25
  And again, big number people say 04 million by 2040.
• 1:00:29
  Yes, I want to believe that that's bullish.
• 1:00:33
  That's 40 times higher than where we are right now.
• 1:00:36
  But the math doesn't pass the sniff test for me because when
• 1:00:40
  you do the maths, OK, that would be an $84 trillion market cap.
• 1:00:46
  There's $900 trillion of wealth in the world today.
• 1:00:49
  So assuming global wealth doesn't expand, that means the
• 1:00:53
  power, that means Bitcoin is 9% of global assets.
• 1:00:56
  Again feels on the low side, but again, global wealth's going to
• 1:01:00
  expand a lot. Michael Saylor's got this really
• 1:01:03
  good chart that shows that he projects out global wealth by
• 1:01:11
  2045. S Saylor thinks that there's
• 1:01:14
  going to be about 4000 trillion. So that's 4 quadrillion dollars
• 1:01:20
  of wealth in 2045. Now the power law's predicting
• 1:01:24
  let's say about $5,000,000 Bitcoin by 2045.
• 1:01:28
  That means Bitcoin's $100 trillion market cap.
• 1:01:31
  And again, I trust Sailors projections.
• 1:01:33
  I don't trust anyone or any model, but I think Sailors
• 1:01:37
  projections are pretty directionally correct.
• 1:01:39
  He's run the numbers on each one of these asset classes.
• 1:01:42
  And in 2045, Bitcoin's 5 million.
• 1:01:46
  Based on the power law, that means it's $100 trillion, but
• 1:01:50
  the whole market would be 840 trillion.
• 1:01:53
  There would be $500 trillion of money in the world, $850
• 1:01:59
  trillion of equities, and if Bitcoin's 100 trillion, that
• 1:02:04
  means quick maths tells me that Bitcoin is 2.5% of global wealth
• 1:02:10
  IN204537 years after it was introduced into the world.
• 1:02:17
  Now I've done a full deep dive on my channel, breaking down the
• 1:02:20
  maths. The history of monetary
• 1:02:22
  transitions, the history of technological adoption curves.
• 1:02:25
  All I'm going to tell you guys is 3% penetration after 37 years
• 1:02:32
  is 1 of the slowest technological adoption curves in
• 1:02:36
  human history. So for me, the the math just
• 1:02:39
  doesn't math for the power law. It just doesn't.
• 1:02:43
  Are we really going to think that Fiat currency is still
• 1:02:46
  going to be 5 times bigger than the Bitcoin market cap in 25
• 1:02:51
  years from now or 20 years from now?
• 1:02:54
  Is, are bonds really such a good investment that they're going to
• 1:02:57
  be 8.4 times larger than the Bitcoin market cap according to
• 1:03:02
  the power law? And that's just my first
• 1:03:05
  principles. Kind of look at things
• 1:03:07
  technological revolutions, they happen in exponential waves.
• 1:03:11
  Monetary transitions happen in exponential waves.
• 1:03:15
  Every Fiat currency has collapsed in human history.
• 1:03:18
  The average lifespan's 27 years. Do we really think, you know,
• 1:03:22
  we're 50 years into this globally connected Fiat system?
• 1:03:26
  Do we really think it's going to hold up for another 25 years?
• 1:03:31
  I just, that's just many of the problems I have with the power
• 1:03:37
  law. Chris, I have even more.
• 1:03:38
  Do you have any comments on either one of those takes?
• 1:03:42
  No, I, I think I mean to add, and then you don't know in the
• 1:03:45
  2045 world, what's the average price of a home?
• 1:03:47
  Is it now $800,000 per home, $600,000 per home, $1.1 million
• 1:03:51
  per home? It what's the, you know, like
• 1:03:54
  you said, like bonds growing by that much.
• 1:03:56
  It's like, are they that great of investment?
• 1:03:57
  But are they enforcing that companies like do we come like a
• 1:04:00
  communist society where we basically all of us have to buy
• 1:04:02
  bond, like all companies have to buy bonds as a mandate?
• 1:04:06
  Yeah, I think there's a lot of assumptions baked in there.
• 1:04:09
  I just know like that someone, I think I forgot who put up on the
• 1:04:13
  the chat. It was like, I know bitcoins
• 1:04:15
  going to go up and down infinitely for all for all of
• 1:04:18
  time or whatever it was. The quote, I thought that was
• 1:04:20
  hilarious. Yeah, that's, yeah, it's,
• 1:04:23
  there's a lot of assumptions baked into it.
• 1:04:25
  For me. Another even bigger assumption
• 1:04:28
  that I think is baked into it is the fact that we just assume
• 1:04:31
  Fiat currency is going to hold again, the power law.
• 1:04:35
  So the power law, the Bitcoin price chart, it's already broken
• 1:04:39
  in like 20% of the world's populations.
• 1:04:43
  Like, for example, have a look at the Bitcoin price in Nigeria,
• 1:04:47
  not a power law for 220 million people.
• 1:04:50
  I have a whole tweet here breaking down all the countries
• 1:04:53
  where the power law has completely broken.
• 1:04:55
  Pakistan, 240 million people, Turkey, 85 million people.
• 1:05:00
  And my biggest problem with these charts is a lot of people
• 1:05:04
  in Nigeria might have sold Bitcoin at 60 million Nigerian
• 1:05:12
  nairas for a Bitcoin in 2023 because it started hitting, oh,
• 1:05:18
  it's one of the top channels at the it's overboard.
• 1:05:21
  It's in the, it's in the three standard deviations from the
• 1:05:24
  channel curve. I need to sell it because the
• 1:05:27
  PhD told me to. And now they sold at 60 million,
• 1:05:32
  It's at 120, a 150 million Nigerian nairas for a Bitcoin.
• 1:05:37
  It's just I could go on and on and on talking about the power
• 1:05:40
  law, Chris. I'll add one thing.
• 1:05:42
  Are you familiar with the Weimar chart, the German marks from
• 1:05:45
  1914 to 1922 or 23? It shows basically like it's
• 1:05:50
  kind of going along and it hockey sticks up and it's German
• 1:05:53
  marks priced in ounces of gold. And I know Dylan Leclair years
• 1:05:58
  ago, 2021, 2020-2021, he posted this chart showing the changes.
• 1:06:03
  So the black line is the price of gold price in German Marks
• 1:06:07
  and hockey sticks up at the end. And obviously they experience
• 1:06:10
  hyperinflation. Thank you whoever pulled up this
• 1:06:12
  chart. So these the red line is the
• 1:06:14
  percent change in gold. I did a calculation because I'm
• 1:06:17
  an insane person. So right before hockey sticks up
• 1:06:20
  the peak right in the red before it goes parabolic if you sold
• 1:06:26
  your gold at that top. So before it goes hockey
• 1:06:29
  sticking up, if you sold your gold there, you still lost.
• 1:06:32
  And that's a, that's a local top, you know, like, oh, the
• 1:06:35
  percent change at the Max. If you sold your gold there, you
• 1:06:38
  still lost 90% of your value in German Marks and you sold it at
• 1:06:43
  the next top before it peaked off.
• 1:06:45
  Meaning that even if you sold there, if you had $1,000,000 to
• 1:06:48
  whatever amount of money, $100,000 your, your value went
• 1:06:51
  from 100,000 a million down 90%. So 100,000 to $10,000, a
• 1:06:56
  $1,000,000 to $100,000. And that is if you're a perfect
• 1:06:59
  trader, No one in the world's a perfect trader.
• 1:07:01
  So even if you sold like a little bit off that you
• 1:07:02
  basically lost 99% of your wealth.
• 1:07:04
  So the ultimate trait, this shows that the ultimate trade
• 1:07:07
  was to hold your gold indefinitely, to never sell into
• 1:07:10
  it. Obviously sell a little bit here
• 1:07:12
  and there to cover your expenses and stuff.
• 1:07:13
  But this chart is so perfect that it shows you never sell
• 1:07:16
  your gold, you never go into a Fiat currency because you're
• 1:07:18
  only going to like only have what Fiat currency, what you're
• 1:07:21
  willing to lose. That's kind of what this chart
• 1:07:23
  shows to me. So obviously, you know, you have
• 1:07:25
  expenses. People don't want to take
• 1:07:27
  Bitcoin for whatever reason, you know, you have to pay them in
• 1:07:29
  Fiat for your bills or whatever it may be in this just day and
• 1:07:32
  age. But like that just shows you
• 1:07:34
  should always hold in the hard asset and not swap it into
• 1:07:37
  because even if you're a perfect trader, you lost 99% or 90% of
• 1:07:40
  your value. If you're not a perfect trader,
• 1:07:41
  you lost 99 or more percent of your value by trading it back
• 1:07:45
  and forth into different assets. That's a brilliant point dude, I
• 1:07:48
  love that you ran the maths. Yeah, I literally was like doing
• 1:07:51
  all the lines and interpolating it using my engineering degree.
• 1:07:54
  But yeah, you lost 90% of your value if you traded the exact
• 1:07:57
  top. And that's like perfect within
• 1:07:59
  the second within the mid with everything of the the Max top
• 1:08:01
  there. And that's my biggest problem
• 1:08:04
  with these models. Again, I don't know anything for
• 1:08:08
  for certain. All I know is that I, I think
• 1:08:10
  we're living in pretty unpredictable times, monetary
• 1:08:13
  transitions. They happen in an exponential
• 1:08:15
  fashion. And there's a lot of deleted
• 1:08:18
  tweets out there from the power opinion crew telling you it's
• 1:08:21
  easy. Just just sell your Bitcoin at
• 1:08:24
  the top of the channel, multiply your bitcoins by buying it all
• 1:08:27
  back at the bottom of the channel.
• 1:08:28
  That, that kind of certainty and inability to allow anyone to
• 1:08:33
  challenge that narrative really worries me, especially when I've
• 1:08:38
  still, again, this is an invitation.
• 1:08:40
  Still haven't heard a good argument as to why it's a good
• 1:08:44
  idea to assume that by 2045 Bitcoin's going to be worth 2%
• 1:08:49
  of global wealth 38 years after it's invented.
• 1:08:53
  Again, a controversial opinion. I think that's a failure.
• 1:08:56
  I don't think that's a success, and I'm far more bullish on
• 1:09:00
  Bitcoin than a $5,000,000 price tag by 2045.
• 1:09:04
  I could probably talk about where I think Bitcoin's gonna go
• 1:09:08
  in the future for another hour, but I won't bore you guys with
• 1:09:13
  that. Chris, I think we've covered a
• 1:09:15
  lot of ground today. I think this is a good place to
• 1:09:17
  wrap things up. Do you have any other final
• 1:09:18
  comments or anything you think we haven't mentioned today to
• 1:09:22
  the guys? No I think stay humble, stacks
• 1:09:25
  acts, buy Bitcoin, take it in self custody, run your own node,
• 1:09:29
  build a strong community, start families.
• 1:09:31
  That's my recommendation or advice to people.
• 1:09:33
  Brilliant advice. I couldn't add anything else
• 1:09:36
  except for do not trade your Bitcoin.
• 1:09:38
  Simple as that. Guys, thank you so much for
• 1:09:40
  joining today. We might leave this one here and
• 1:09:42
  we will be back again tomorrow. Today's episode was brought to
• 1:09:48
  you by bitcoinwell.com, a Bitcoin only platform on a
• 1:09:51
  mission to enable financial independence.