Latest / Best of Business / Shane Solly: Harbour Asset Management spokesperson on Donald Trump declining to rule out US recession amid tariff war

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Shane Solly: Harbour Asset Management spokesperson on Donald Trump declining to rule out US recession amid tariff war · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News Talk zed B.
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  Speaker 2: Shane Salu with Harbor Asset Management with US Tonight High Shane. Yeah, right,
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  Speaker 2: So we obviously had a pretty bad week on the
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  Speaker 2: US stock market last week and it continues today.
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  Speaker 3: Oh look, you know, this rapid pace of policy announcements
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  Speaker 3: from the Trump government is really putting Evesias on the
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  Speaker 3: back foot. And we've got to the point now where
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  Speaker 3: and this is are worried about growth. A couple of
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  Speaker 3: things behind that, This government efficiency drive led by this
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  Speaker 3: new Department of Government Efficiency and the terriff announcements has
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  Speaker 3: seen a drop and consensus market growth focused and got
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  Speaker 3: to the point where late last week we saw US
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  Speaker 3: fit a Reserve Bank chairman Joan Power coming So I
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  Speaker 3: had actually economies okay, Munkey policys sitting is appropriate, but
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  Speaker 3: that sort of the shear market come up a little
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  Speaker 3: bit on Friday, but over all the week weest really
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  Speaker 3: soft in the US market because of the slower growths.
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  Speaker 3: So yeah, a bit of a challenge certainly getting efficiency
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  Speaker 3: is costing a little bit of growth.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, and he's the way he's talking as well, I
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  Speaker 2: mean even the last twenty four hours talking about the
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  Speaker 2: possibility of a recession.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right. And we've got one of those key
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  Speaker 3: policy advisors, mister A saying, hey, look, right from the
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  Speaker 3: get go, I was asked to how Toway get efficiency
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  Speaker 3: without breaking the economy. So mister Trump is definitely testing
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  Speaker 3: the boundaries back here.
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  Speaker 2: Fonterra increased its profit guidance today. What was behind that move?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, look a good, good uplift from Fontira that they've
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  Speaker 3: got a building, a bit of a truck. We've got
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  Speaker 3: a beating expectations. This was better than expected. They've lifted
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  Speaker 3: earning specier guidance from forty to sixty cents to fifty
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  Speaker 3: five to seventy five. And really it's just back to basics,
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  Speaker 3: the good underlying ingredients business, you know, driving upgrades. This
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  Speaker 3: dairy pay ups obviously very helpful for the Boorda New
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  Speaker 3: Zealand economy. But they've certainly got a much better run
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  Speaker 3: demand and supply going their way, so they're in a
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  Speaker 3: good spot.
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  Speaker 2: They're also and we've spoken about this a lot, wanting
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  Speaker 2: to divest the consumer business mainland. They've now started doing
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  Speaker 2: their road show up and down the country is part
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  Speaker 2: of this kind of process. What's the reaction to the
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  Speaker 2: information they've been sharing being like.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, look, so this Mainland is a consumer business that
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  Speaker 3: produces products like ank and milk and Mainland and capity
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  Speaker 3: dairy products. We know of these on Australia, it's also
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  Speaker 3: in parts of Asia. The business they've just given us
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  Speaker 3: a little bit of detail on is smidge to be
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  Speaker 3: honest with youryan, the start hopefully of some more information.
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  Speaker 3: So they're running a business that generated four point nine
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  Speaker 3: billion dollars of revenue in two hundred million earnings before
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  Speaker 3: interest and tax in twenty twenty four, so it's certainly
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  Speaker 3: got an okay base there, but they're running a dual process,
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  Speaker 3: so we don't actually know whether it may be listed
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  Speaker 3: or it may actually be sold to a trade by
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  Speaker 3: so early days there's a lot of information to come out.
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  Speaker 3: But the combination of that earnings upgrade and release on
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  Speaker 3: Mainland supported the fon terrashop prices is actually up five
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  Speaker 3: percent to five dollars forty five, almost back to its
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  Speaker 3: five year high. Still a bit of uncertains around the
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  Speaker 3: Maniam process, but we're getting a bit more confidence that
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  Speaker 3: this is getting a bit more confidence around earning space
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  Speaker 3: in the capital base for Fontira. So yeah, a bitter
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  Speaker 3: day for Fonterra.
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  Speaker 2: A tech for them today. What results should we be
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  Speaker 2: looking forward to this week?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's very much about macroeconomics, to be honest with
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  Speaker 3: your Ryan, So be some big data points out of
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  Speaker 3: the US, particularly some inflation points, and again going back
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  Speaker 3: to mister Jeron Pale from the FED saying everything's okay,
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  Speaker 3: we need some more confilmation about particularly with inflation. And
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  Speaker 3: then later in the week we've got some US job
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  Speaker 3: jobs data and so it's a trade off between hot
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  Speaker 3: enough hot enough in the economy not too cold in
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  Speaker 3: the economy for him to keep those interest rates in
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  Speaker 3: the right city. We've got a Bank of Canada official
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  Speaker 3: rate call. Now normally you could go why why does
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  Speaker 3: that matter? Well, they've actually been quite a lead indicator
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  Speaker 3: for other central banks and so they've been really cutting
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  Speaker 3: rates aggressively. Obviously they're in the midst of a bit
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  Speaker 3: of a trade wark with you is. But really I
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  Speaker 3: think we're going to keep focusing on these trade tariff
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  Speaker 3: news and fortunately it's going to keep us pretty busy.
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  Speaker 2: It certainly is. Shane thank you for that. Shane Sally
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  Speaker 2: Harbor Rest Management with the market update for this afternoon.
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