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What Is Science, and What Can It Answer? · Truth in Motion with Dr. Jocelyn

• 0:02
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to Truth in Motion with Dr.
• 0:05
  SPEAKER_00: Jocelyn, where insight, clarity, and wisdom help you thrive.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: Yesterday we began a new week by asking what makes a question meaningful.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: We saw that a meaningful answer is big enough to feel and is measured in people, not only in numbers.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: Today we look at the most trusted way of asking and answering questions in our culture.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_00: Science.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: What it requires, how the scientific method actually works step by step, and how you can use it.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_00: The difference between data and models, and which questions science can answer and which ones it can't.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: Here's the heart of it.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: Science is one of the best tools people have ever made for finding meaningful answers.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: But it has rules.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: When a claim follows them, it has earned the name.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: When it doesn't, it hasn't, no matter who says it.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_00: Let me start with a story about a church tower.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_00: For almost 2,000 years, educated people believed something that seemed obvious.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: Aristotle taught that heavier things fall faster than lighter things.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: A rock ten times heavier should fall ten times faster.
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  SPEAKER_00: It was taught in the best schools, but almost nobody checked.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: In 1586, a Dutch engineer named Simon Steven decided to check.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_00: He and a friend climbed the tower of the new church in Delft.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: They took two lead balls, one was ten times heavier than the other.
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  SPEAKER_00: They dropped them together, about thirty feet onto a wooden board below, and they listened.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: One sound, not two.
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  SPEAKER_00: Two thousand years of expert opinion overturned by one test that anyone could repeat.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: And you can repeat it today.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: Take a baseball and a tennis ball.
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  SPEAKER_00: They're close in size, but the baseball weighs more than twice as much.
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  SPEAKER_00: Drop them together from shoulder height.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: They land together.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: Some of you are already thinking, but a feather falls slower than a rock.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: You're right, it does.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: That's air resistance, not weight.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: Lay a sheet of paper flat on top of a hardcover book and drop them together.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: The paper rides all the way down with the book.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_00: Take the air out of the picture, and weight doesn't decide the speed.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_00: Notice that Stevin didn't do, he didn't take a vote, he didn't defer to the old books.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: He tested, he listened, and he let the results answer.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: As always, let's start with why this matters.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: We hear the word science everywhere.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: Trust the science.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_00: The science is settled.
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  SPEAKER_00: Science can't explain that.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: People on every side use the word to end an argument.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: If we don't know what science actually requires, we can't tell when it's being used honestly and when it's being used to shut a door.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_00: What makes something science?
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_00: The word science comes from the Latin schientia, knowledge, but science today means something specific.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: A claim is scientific when it meets a few standards.
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  SPEAKER_00: First, it's observable.
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  SPEAKER_00: Someone can actually see, hear, or detect what's being studied directly or with instruments.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_00: Second, it's measurable.
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  SPEAKER_00: We can put a number on it.
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  SPEAKER_00: Or at least sort results in a consistent way.
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  SPEAKER_00: Third, it's testable, and that means it can fail.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: The philosopher Karl Popper called this falsifiability.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: A scientific claim has to make a prediction that could turn out wrong.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: In 1919, Einstein's theory of gravity predicted exactly how much starlight would bend near the sun during an eclipse.
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  SPEAKER_00: If the measurement had come out differently, his theory would have failed in public.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: But it didn't.
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  SPEAKER_00: And that same test has been repeated many times since.
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  SPEAKER_00: Fourth, science is repeatable.
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  SPEAKER_00: Someone else, somewhere else, can follow the same steps and get the same result.
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  SPEAKER_00: One result is a clue.
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  SPEAKER_00: A repeated result is evidence.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: This standard is stricter than many people realize.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_00: In 2015, a team of 270 researchers tried to repeat 100 published psychology studies.
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  SPEAKER_00: In the originals, 97% had reported a significant result.
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  SPEAKER_00: On repetition, only about 36% did.
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  SPEAKER_00: A few years earlier, scientists at the biotech company, Amgen, tried to confirm 53 landmark cancer studies.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: They could confirm six.
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  SPEAKER_00: Published is not the same as proven.
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  SPEAKER_00: Repeated is what counts.
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  SPEAKER_00: Now I will grant that a failed replication doesn't prove that the original was wrong.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: That is true.
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  SPEAKER_00: It means the finding isn't established yet.
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  SPEAKER_00: That's exactly why repetition is part of the standard.
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  SPEAKER_00: And fifth, science is controlled.
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  SPEAKER_00: We change one thing at a time and we compare it against something that didn't change, so we know what actually caused the result.
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  SPEAKER_00: The physicist Richard Feneman put the spirit of it this way in 1974.
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  SPEAKER_00: Quote, the first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool, unquote.
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  SPEAKER_00: Every one of these standards exists to keep us from fooling ourselves.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: So let's look at the scientific method step by step.
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  SPEAKER_00: One, observe, something catches your attention.
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  SPEAKER_00: Two, ask a specific question.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_00: Not is coffee bad, but does coffee afternoon change how long it takes me to fall asleep?
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  SPEAKER_00: Three, find out what's already known.
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  SPEAKER_00: Someone may have already studied it.
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  SPEAKER_00: Fourth, form a hypothesis.
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  SPEAKER_00: A hypothesis is a clear statement that could be wrong.
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  SPEAKER_00: So for example, coffee afternoon makes me take longer to fall asleep.
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  SPEAKER_00: That may or may not be true.
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  SPEAKER_00: Five, make a prediction.
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  SPEAKER_00: If I stop coffee afternoon, I'll fall asleep faster.
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  SPEAKER_00: Then six, test it with controls.
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  SPEAKER_00: Change one thing, keep everything else as steady as you can.
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  SPEAKER_00: In formal research, that means a comparison group.
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  SPEAKER_00: People assigned at random, and when possible, nobody knowing who got what.
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  SPEAKER_00: That's called blinding.
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  SPEAKER_00: Randomizing keeps us from stacking the deck, even unintentionally.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_00: Blinding matters because expectation itself changes results.
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  SPEAKER_00: That's the placebo effect.
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  SPEAKER_00: And it's real.
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  SPEAKER_00: Seven, measure the same way every time.
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  SPEAKER_00: Eight, analyze.
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  SPEAKER_00: Is the difference real or could chance explain this?
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  SPEAKER_00: Nine, conclude.
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  SPEAKER_00: Honestly, even when the answer is no.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_00: And finally, ten, repeat and let others repeat it.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: Here's how that looks in your own life.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_00: Take the coffee question.
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  SPEAKER_00: For two weeks, keep your usual routine and track how long it takes you to fall asleep.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_00: And rate your sleep from 1 to 10 each morning.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_00: For the next two weeks, no coffee afternoon.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_00: Same tracking.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: Then switch back and then switch again.
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_00: Write your hypothesis down before you start so you can't move the goalposts later.
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  SPEAKER_00: Researchers call that pre-registration.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_00: Physicians call this an end of one trial, a trial in one person.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_00: It has limits.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_00: You know what you're doing, so your expectations can color the results.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_00: That's exactly why you switch back and forth more than once.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_00: If the pattern shows up every time, that's real information about you.
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_00: Now here's a distinction that matters more every year.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_00: The difference between data and a model.
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_00: Data is what was actually observed and measured.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_00: The rain gauge says one inch fell yesterday.
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  SPEAKER_00: A model is a set of equations built on assumptions to estimate what we haven't measured.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_00: The forecast says 60% chance of rain tomorrow.
• 8:59
  SPEAKER_00: Models are useful, but a model's output is not an observation.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_00: It's only as good as its assumptions, and it has to be checked against real data.
• 9:09
  SPEAKER_00: A model can be tuned to fit the past perfectly and still miss the future.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_00: The statistician George Box put it plainly, all models are wrong, but some are useful.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_00: You meet models in medicine all the time.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: A 10-year heart risk score is a model.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_00: It takes your age, your blood pressure, your cholesterol, and a few other numbers, and it estimates what tends to happen to people like you.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_00: It's a useful estimate.
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  SPEAKER_00: It is not a measurement of your heart.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_00: So when you hear a number, ask, was this measured or was it modeled?
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_00: Listen to the language.
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  SPEAKER_00: Projected, estimated, expected, and could are model words.
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_00: Measured, observed, and counted are data words.
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  SPEAKER_00: Models are science too.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: Forecasting the risk scores are built on huge amounts of data.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_00: And I agree.
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  SPEAKER_00: My point is that a model's projection isn't the same as a measurement, and it has to keep being checked against what actually happens.
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  SPEAKER_00: And this brings us to a hard edge.
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  SPEAKER_00: Science works best on what can be observed and repeated now.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_00: So what about the past?
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_00: Some events happened once and can't be repeated.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody observed the beginning of the world.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_00: We can't rerun it in a lab.
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_00: Any account of how the world began rests on inferences from what we see today, plus assumptions about conditions no one was there to see.
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_00: To reason backward, we have to assume that the rates and processes we measure today held steady across time, that no one watched, and that nothing observed interfered.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: Those are assumptions, not observations.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_00: That doesn't make the question unimportant.
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  SPEAKER_00: It means it isn't the same kind of claim as two balls falling from a tower.
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  SPEAKER_00: Repeatable science and claims about an unobserved past should not be presented as equally certain.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: Scripture speaks to this in Hebrews 11.
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  SPEAKER_00: By faith we understand that the worlds were framed by the Word of God, so that the things which are seen were not made of the things which are visible.
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_00: And that brings us back to trust the science.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_00: In the 1960s, an industry group called the Sugar Research Foundation paid Harvard researchers to write a review on diet and heart disease.
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  SPEAKER_00: It was published in 1967 in the New England Journal of Medicine.
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  SPEAKER_00: It played down the evidence against sugar and pointed the finger at fat.
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  SPEAKER_00: The funding was not disclosed.
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_00: For decades, low fat was the science.
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_00: Many of us grew up on fat-free cookies and skim milk, believing we were doing the healthy thing.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_00: The industry documents came to light in 2016.
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  SPEAKER_00: So when someone says trust the science, here are three fair questions.
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  SPEAKER_00: One, what study?
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  SPEAKER_00: Two, who paid for it?
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  SPEAKER_00: Three, and was it measured or modeled?
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_00: What science can't answer?
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_00: Some questions science was never built to answer at all.
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_00: Science can tell you how a heart beats, it can't tell you who to love.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_00: It can measure your blood pressure, it can't tell you what your life is for.
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_00: The philosopher David Hume pointed out that science can tell us what is.
• 12:43
  SPEAKER_00: It can't, on its own, tell us what ought to be.
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_00: And science itself stands on things it can't prove.
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_00: It assumes the world is real, orderly, and knowledgeable, and that our senses and reason can be trusted.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_00: Every experiment already depends on those.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_00: Remember yesterday?
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_00: Every question stands on answers we've already accepted, and science does too.
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_00: Some people believe science is the only way to know anything true.
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_00: That belief is called scientism, but that statement can't be tested by any experiment.
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_00: It's a belief about science, not a finding of science.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_00: Last week we talked about medicine as an art.
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_00: I shared a line from my oath, and it said, I will remember that there is art to medicine as well as science, and that warmth, sympathy, and understanding may outweigh the therapist's hand or the herbalist's formula.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_00: And we heard Eric Fromm say that any art, including medicine, takes theory, practice, and a commitment that matters more than anything else.
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_00: So how does science and art work together?
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  SPEAKER_00: Here's how I see it.
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  SPEAKER_00: Science tells us what tends to happen to most people.
• 14:01
  SPEAKER_00: Art is knowing this specific person.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_00: Science gives us the map.
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  SPEAKER_00: Art is walking the trail with someone who has their own pace, their own history, and their own fears.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_00: Science can tell us that a treatment helps many people with back pain.
• 14:18
  SPEAKER_00: Art is noticing that someone is holding their breath on the table, that the pain got worse the same season that their life fell apart, that they need to be heard before they can be helped.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_00: Sir William Osler was a Canadian physician who helped found John Hopkins Hospital when it opened in 1889.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_00: He's often called the father of modern medicine because he took medical students out of the lecture hall and put them at the patient's bedside.
• 14:47
  SPEAKER_00: He's often quoted this way: Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_00: And remember yesterday's definition of evidence-based medicine?
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_00: It's the combination of best evidence, the clinician's expertise, and your values.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_00: Three parts.
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_00: That's science and art together by its own definition.
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_00: So it was never science or art, it's science and art, each doing its own job.
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_00: Science keeps us honest, art keeps us human.
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_00: This week we question.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_00: Yesterday you picked one belief you hold about your health, and you asked two questions.
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_00: Where did I get this?
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_00: And is it true?
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_00: Today, take that same belief and ask, could this be tested?
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_00: If so, how would I test it?
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_00: And if it can't be tested, is it a question of meaning, value, or faith?
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_00: Let's bring today together.
• 15:51
  SPEAKER_00: One test from a church tower overturned 2,000 years of expert opinion, and you can repeat it today.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_00: Science is observable, measurable, testable, repeatable, and controlled.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_00: The scientific method moves from observation to question, hypothesis, prediction, controlled test, measurement, honest conclusion, and repetition.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_00: And you can apply it to your own health.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_00: Data is measured, a model is estimated.
• 16:24
  SPEAKER_00: Both are useful, but they are not the same.
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_00: In medicine, science and art work together.
• 16:30
  SPEAKER_00: Science keeps us honest, art keeps us human.
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_00: Tomorrow we'll slow down and step into wonder.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_00: Every one of us began as a single cell, and every one of your own cells today came from that one cell.
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_00: So when I say it's all connected, I mean it literally.
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_00: I'll see you there.
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_00: Keep the conversation going.
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_00: Find your next steps in notes from a fellow traveler.
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_00: My blog.