Latest / The Fourcast / How Israel-Iran war could explode 'into World War 3' - Gideon Levy

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How Israel-Iran war could explode 'into World War 3' - Gideon Levy · The Fourcast

• 0:00
  The real question is now. If Donald Trump comes into the
• 0:03
  picture, then we might face a dramatic phase in this war which
• 0:07
  might end it very soon. Why do you think Trump seems to
• 0:11
  have changed his attitude? Because he smells an easy
• 0:14
  victory. But on the other hand, someone
• 0:17
  has to whisper in his ear that this can also end in a
• 0:21
  catastrophe. When American soldiers will be
• 0:24
  hurted, he will be committed to do something more.
• 0:27
  He might send troops, 2 minutes later, the Russians might blink,
• 0:33
  and here you are in a World War. Welcome to the special edition
• 0:40
  of the Forecast from Tel Aviv, where of course a lot has been
• 0:44
  going on. We had a rather busy night with
• 0:46
  lots of air raid sirens. Again, the ballistic duel
• 0:49
  between Israel and Iran continues.
• 0:51
  And the big question hanging over all of this is what does
• 0:55
  Donald Trump do next? He's been using the word we an
• 0:58
  awful lot when talking about Israel's attempted possible
• 1:02
  regime change, if that's what they want, possibly getting
• 1:05
  involved to try and finally annihilate Iran's nuclear
• 1:08
  program. But will the Americans get
• 1:10
  involved? What are the consequences of
• 1:12
  that? There's an awful lot to discuss
• 1:14
  with me to do. So here's Gideon Levy, very well
• 1:17
  known Israeli author, journalist, broadcaster and here
• 1:20
  with me on the pavement. Good to see you, Gideon.
• 1:22
  Good to see you mate. If you had to put money on it,
• 1:25
  would you say the Americans are going to get involved?
• 1:27
  Yes, on it. Look, I'm not going to he put
• 1:29
  money on it because it all depends on some figure who is
• 1:35
  not stable. He goes to sleep.
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  President. Sure.
• 1:38
  Sure, sure. He goes to sleep with one idea,
• 1:41
  he wakes up with another. I wouldn't put my money on
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  anything. And that's really the crucial
• 1:47
  moment because would he decide to join?
• 1:50
  We are in one game. Would he decide not to join?
• 1:53
  We are in a totally different game.
• 1:55
  I mean, you can't exaggerate how dramatic it is.
• 1:59
  I have a theory which I'd like to test with you, which is that
• 2:01
  the one of the reasons why he might get involved is that one,
• 2:05
  this is low hanging fruit. The Iranians have already been
• 2:08
  weakened anyway before this latest war started.
• 2:11
  They seem to be in a weaker position now than before.
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  And he can. You'll probably find it quite
• 2:15
  easy to get some credit from whatever's going to happen.
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  And secondly, all the other things that he's tried in his
• 2:22
  pursuit of the Nobel Peace Prize haven't worked out, whether it's
• 2:25
  Gaza, whether it's Ukraine. And here's one that he might
• 2:28
  just think could work out. Yes and no.
• 2:33
  On one hand you're right. Yes, it seems to be easy.
• 2:37
  You just send few B2 or B52 and the problem is solved and Iran
• 2:43
  is on its knees. But with such wars, you know how
• 2:47
  they begin. You never know how will they
• 2:49
  end. It might end in a fiasco.
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  It might end in a fiasco. You don't know how it will
• 2:55
  develop. Yeah, Secondly.
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  Secondly, he is committed for not involving the Americans in
• 3:02
  any dispute. Until a few days ago.
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  Exactly. So what will His base doesn't
• 3:09
  want any involvement except of the lunatic evangelist who for
• 3:13
  them the Jews are the chosen people and Israel is the chosen
• 3:16
  land, except of those lunatics. The evangelical Christians.
• 3:20
  The Christian Nationalists. Exactly, except of them.
• 3:23
  There are a few millions, but except of them, his base doesn't
• 3:27
  want it. Not only does his base not want
• 3:29
  it, they're actually rebelling against it.
• 3:31
  Steve Bannon on the record repeatedly day after day, saying
• 3:34
  this is not what we signed up to.
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  Tulsi Gabbard, his own head of intelligence, saying to Congress
• 3:40
  in March and repeating it just the other day.
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  There was no evidence to suggest that the Iran Iranians were very
• 3:45
  close to actually developing a nuclear bomb, right?
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  So Piers Morgan. Piers Morgan, his supporter,
• 3:54
  he's against. So why do you think, and it's
• 3:58
  very hard to know the mind of Trump, why do you think Trump
• 4:00
  seems to have changed his attitude towards getting
• 4:03
  involved? Because he smells an easy
• 4:06
  victory, which might not be easy and not a victory, but this is
• 4:11
  what he smells. He smells an opportunity to do
• 4:14
  something which will succeed after all the failures, but on
• 4:18
  the other hand, someone has to whisper on his ear that this can
• 4:22
  also end in a catastrophe. And therefore I think we
• 4:26
  couldn't trust his judgment. He might change his mind in the
• 4:30
  coming hours 10 times, OK, but the but the coming hours are
• 4:34
  crucial. Right.
• 4:35
  But we're not going to put money on whether he's going to go in
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  or not. You.
• 4:37
  Can put money as much as you want.
• 4:39
  Tiny and a tiny amount, but you're going to keep yours.
• 4:42
  I keep. OK.
• 4:43
  All right. I guess I have more less than
• 4:45
  you, so I have to be more. Helpful possibly discuss that in
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  this podcast. OK.
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  So the other thing is you say you know it could be
• 4:53
  catastrophic. What does that catastrophic
• 4:55
  scenario look like to you think? About Vietnam, Think about
• 5:00
  Afghanistan, think about Iraq. Libya.
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  Libya. Think about Israel starting a
• 5:06
  war in Lebanon in 82. Think about Israel starting this
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  war in Gaza, which doesn't seem to end ever.
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  You start it and you don't know, OK, they will bomb Fodu and then
• 5:19
  they might hit back, including American bases.
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  When American soldiers will be hurted.
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  He will be committed to do something more.
• 5:28
  He might send troops. 2 minutes later the Russians might blink
• 5:34
  and here you are in a World War. I mean, it is so explosive that
• 5:39
  I wouldn't gamble on on on a, on a guaranteed victory here.
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  Because the number of wars that start or where people get
• 5:47
  involved thinking it's over by Christmas or maybe by Labour Day
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  and then it isn't, you know, there are too many of them to
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  mention in this. Give me one example, at least in
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  the Middle East, of a war which led to real good achievements.
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  I can tell you about Israel's war.
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  None of them, including the Six Day War, didn't lead Israel to a
• 6:08
  better place. None of them.
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  But from Netanyahu's point of view, right, you've got a
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  government, a regime in Iran that is, you know, openly vowed
• 6:17
  to achieve the destruction of the state of Israel.
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  Israel does not have the right to exist.
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  And there's this constant threat of nuclear capability hanging
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  over that threat. Even if they don't, even if
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  they're not close to developing a bomb, they might do.
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  From his point of view, this is a legacy issue.
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  And he would say one that actually could achieve, you
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  know, a more peaceful future for this country.
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  Totally, totally. Is he right?
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  No, he is totally right by claiming that that's his life
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  project. It is his life project and
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  therefore I really believe that he does it with some genuine
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  face that he's doing the right thing.
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  He believes in what he's doing here.
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  This is not just in chancing it right.
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  Not only this, and it's not all those cynical consideration his
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  his trial, his coalition. No, no, now he does it because
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  he feels he's doing an historic step.
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  The only problem is that, with all the respect to his judgment,
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  this historic step might become also an historic fiasco for
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  Israel. And it might not.
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  It might not, but I cannot gamble and I don't think it's
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  needed because there is still the alternative of getting back
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  to the negotiation table and I would always prefer diplomacy
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  over mass killing. Why do you think Benjamin
• 7:38
  Netanyahu is so obsessed with the issue of Iran 'cause he's
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  been talking about it ever since he appeared on the political
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  stage. More than any other issue, he,
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  and does he see this as his big legacy as an Israeli leader in
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  the kind of pantheon of history? More than this, he yesterday
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  spoke about it in an interview. He was brought up in a certain
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  atmosphere. His father was a well known
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  historian and he was brought up, like many Israelis, under this
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  heavy, heavy cloud of the Holocaust, which should never
• 8:10
  come again. Now, for those people, any small
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  threats turns into a Holocaust, a second Holocaust.
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  And therefore any small threat justify any reaction because we
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  went through the Holocaust, because it shouldn't happen
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  again. So his mindset is a very
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  nationalistic mindset of someone who all the time is sure and
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  convinced that he's just few metres from from extermination,
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  that the Jewish people or the Jewish state is just few weeks
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  from extermination, which is not the case.
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  But is that a mindset that is shared by the majority of the
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  public here? The brainwashed system of Israel
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  is working on it and therefore it's getting, it's getting to a
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  majority. Absolutely.
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  We are brainwashed here systematically to believe that
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  we are the chosen people to believe that they are.
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  We are the biggest victory, biggest victim in history.
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  And therefore, because of those two reasons, we have the right
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  to do whatever we want. That's the mindset.
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  Of all the wars that Israel has fought, you know, and there are
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  quite a few wars that has fought just in the last 20 months,
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  obviously against Hamas, but also others.
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  Is this the most popular so far? Is there real support for this
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  on the streets of? No doubt, No doubt about it.
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  Israel is fearful with a very, very heavy cloud over our heads.
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  But the support to Netanyahu jumped within hours.
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  It can also fall within hours. But right now, when it seems as
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  a as a victory, when it seems as a success story.
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  And again, we are five days after the beginning, six days
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  after the beginning, they all the walls that Israel launched
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  started wonderfully and very soon later came the price and
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  the price was unbearable. Let's see and wait.
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  Right now it seems to most of the Israelis the right thing to
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  do, and many even change their mind about Netanyahu and see him
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  now as the the Messiah. It seems to be that for
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  Netanyahu and many people in Israel, every problem is a nail
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  and every solution is a hammer. I mean, is that true?
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  And does it need to be like that?
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  I would phrase it differently. I would phrase that for Israel,
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  launching a war is always the first priority.
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  Launching a war is. Always the first priority.
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  The second one will be diplomacy, right?
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  And it should be the opposite. Shoot.
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  Shoot first, ask questions later.
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  Absolutely, and negotiate even later.
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  Has that worked for Israel? Look at Israel.
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  I mean Israel is now in its worst situation ever, a pariah
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  state with a broken society, with a society fatigue.
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  This UK you call a success story, it was a success story in
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  its establishment. But when you see now, look at
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  the mood of Israelis, they are really looking for another
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  passport and I'll take it away. This is not normal life and
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  normal society. You've witnessed, you know,
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  quite a few wars of this country.
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  You live here in Tel Aviv. How has the soul of Israel
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  changed over these years, with every war as a milestone?
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  I think the main milestone recently is the 7th of October.
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  The 7th of October took the Israelis out of the closet, at
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  least the racist, the nationalist and those who were
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  vague. They are now out of the closet,
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  declared racist and nationalist, who think that the Palestinians
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  have no rights in this piece of land, who think that Israel has
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  the right to do whatever it want.
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  Because of the 7th of October, it also changed many mindsets,
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  mainly of the left or the Zionist left or the central left
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  who used to have a dream or a plan to make peace with the
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  Palestinians. They all retreated.
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  Now they don't believe in any kind of agreement with the
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  Palestinians. Even some of my good friends,
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  yeah, they all think that the 7th of October changed anything.
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  You know, ever since then Israel committed 107th of October in
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  Gaza and this they don't realize.
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  And why didn't they realize that?
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  Because there is a brainwash system in Israel which prevent
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  them to realize it. Because the Israeli media is
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  collaborating, not with the government, not with any
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  censorship which doesn't almost doesn't exist, which the need to
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  please the viewers and the, and the readers with the need to for
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  rating and, and and and and selling newspapers.
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  And they know very well the Israelis don't want to know.
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  And they know nothing about Gaza.
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  And every Israeli take, even the most intelligent one, I'm always
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  shocked how little they know about Gaza.
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  I can tell you that any anyone in the suburb of Sheffield in
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  the UK knows more about Gaza. So more about Gaza than an
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  intellectual in Tel Aviv. Is that because they don't want
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  to know anything about Gaza or because they're not shown
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  anything about Gaza and they can't be bothered to look?
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  Both, both, both. It goes together because if you
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  really want to see, there's so many outlets that you can see
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  you don't want to see, and the Israeli media enables you the
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  luxury of not knowing and not seeing and not be troubled.
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  I mean, I have to say that in this part of Tel Aviv, which I
• 13:51
  know we're surrounded by Palestinian buildings and the
• 13:53
  ghosts of the people who used to live in these buildings, they're
• 13:56
  still somewhere around us. You go to the beach.
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  It feels like the South of France.
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  I mean, the beach is full even when, you know, just before and
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  after a siren, people are tossing volleyballs, playing
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  football, having a great time. And an hour's drive down the
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  road is Gaza. It's a different kind of beach.
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  This has always slightly freaked me out, I have to say, even
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  though I've been guilty of the occasional swim.
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  Look, on one hand, people are very proud that Israel continues
• 14:25
  to live its life. The resilience.
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  The resilience for me, it is really a moral disease.
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  A moral illness. How can you?
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  How dare you when one hour away from here there were 1000 babies
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  slaughtered in the last 20 months, 1000 babies less than
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  one year. And it doesn't concern you.
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  It is the friends of your sons and the sons of your friends who
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  did it. And it doesn't concern you that
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  troubles you. You don't feel any kind of
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  accountability, guilt, blame, something, nothing.
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  And even those people and you mentioned some of them were your
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  friends who might have felt guilt and blame about this in
• 15:07
  the past, who might have believed in A2 state solution in
• 15:11
  the past. No longer do.
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  Absolutely. They all believe in any
• 15:15
  settlement. They believe on living on the
• 15:16
  sword forever. They believe only in wars, in
• 15:21
  aggression, in military steps, nothing but it because they say
• 15:26
  the Palestinians are not partners for anything.
• 15:28
  But this is, this city doesn't feel like a martial society,
• 15:32
  even though lots of people go to war and they, they put on their
• 15:34
  uniform, they do military service.
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  It feels, you know, it's got a very sort of shortagey vibe
• 15:40
  about it. I mean, it's, it's funky, it's
• 15:42
  cool. They'd eat good food.
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  They go to restaurants, they go to bars.
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  You know, if the shops were open, they'd be dancing all
• 15:46
  night long. It doesn't feel like a
• 15:48
  militarised society, even though it is.
• 15:50
  So I can't I can't square that circle.
• 15:54
  It's very easy to square this circle.
• 15:58
  Did you see one demonstration against the war here?
• 16:00
  Against the war, not for the hostages, not against Netanyahu,
• 16:04
  against the crimes of the war? No one, nothing.
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  Do you think that the people here are aware to what we are
• 16:11
  doing in Gaza, one hour away from here?
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  No. So living in the living in
• 16:15
  denial is not something that any intelligent person should
• 16:20
  appreciate. On one end you say, yeah, this
• 16:22
  you live only once, let them live the normal life.
• 16:25
  But you don't have the right to live your normal life because
• 16:28
  you create an abnormal reality one hour away from here, and
• 16:34
  therefore we don't have the right to live normal lives now.
• 16:37
  Do you think the people of this city and this country care more
• 16:40
  about what happens to the citizens of Tehran than what
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  happens to people in Gaza? No, no, no, no, no.
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  By all means. No, no, no, no, no, no.
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  They don't care about anyone who is not Jewish.
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  The the the scope of our morality is a long, very clear
• 16:59
  nationalistic lines. We care only about what happens
• 17:03
  to Israel, to Israelis, and mainly to Jewish Israelis.
• 17:06
  If you phrase it like that, the question of the outcome of this
• 17:09
  particular conflict with Iran is overshadowed by a much bigger
• 17:15
  question, isn't it? The question of the future of
• 17:18
  the state of Israel, its viability as a democratic state,
• 17:21
  its existence not because of what enemies are trying to do to
• 17:24
  it, but what it might do to itself?
• 17:27
  Is that a fairpoint? It's not only a fairpoint, You
• 17:30
  underestimated it. Can you really define Israel as
• 17:34
  a democracy? Yes, Israel is democracy, even
• 17:38
  the liberal democracy for Jewish citizens.
• 17:41
  You have Free Press. You have free and fair
• 17:43
  elections. Free speech.
• 17:45
  I'm the best. I'm the best.
• 17:46
  They. Don't like you very much, do
• 17:49
  they? They.
• 17:50
  Don't. But they, they let me talk at
• 17:52
  least at least to certain extent, because I'm totally bent
• 17:56
  on Israeli TV. Ever since this war started, I
• 17:59
  used to be often on TV. Not anymore, but no problems.
• 18:02
  That's not, I'm not the victim of this war, but how can you be
• 18:08
  a democracy when 5 million people are living under your
• 18:12
  brutal tyranny in the West Bank and in other way in Gaza?
• 18:16
  How can this be defined? It's part of Israel.
• 18:19
  It is part and. Part of Israel.
• 18:22
  It is the factor part of Israel and it is part of Israel because
• 18:26
  the government in Jerusalem decides their fate and no other,
• 18:30
  no one else. The The government in Jerusalem
• 18:32
  defines the fate of the people in Gaza and they they decide the
• 18:35
  fate of the people in The West Wing.
• 18:37
  And do you think that this government, with President
• 18:40
  Trump, you know, as their support act in the White House
• 18:43
  is closer, as many had predicted, to formalising that
• 18:47
  relationship to annexing the West Bank, to annexing the Gaza
• 18:50
  Strip? I must tell you, it's for me.
• 18:53
  It's a minor question. The West Bank is an excited.
• 18:56
  Long time ago. Long time ago.
• 18:59
  Go to the West Bank. You see any difference?
• 19:02
  It's an apartheid region. Definitely cannot be defined
• 19:06
  otherwise. But for Jews, what's the
• 19:09
  difference about being in the West Bank or in Tel Aviv?
• 19:12
  Same law, same currency, everything and same rule.
• 19:17
  Would you then say to the Palestinian people and to their
• 19:20
  supporters, you know, in the UK and around the Middle East, the
• 19:24
  dream of a palace in an independent, sovereign
• 19:27
  Palestinian nation state, let us be clear, is finished.
• 19:34
  I'm. Hesitating because they really
• 19:36
  deserve a Palestinian state they really deserve.
• 19:38
  The reality. I'm not talking about what they
• 19:40
  deserve, of course they deserve that, but the reality.
• 19:42
  More than this, continuing to talk about the two state
• 19:45
  solution place to the hands of the occupation.
• 19:49
  Why? Because everyone knows that
• 19:52
  there there is no room anymore for a Palestinian state with
• 19:56
  700,000 violent settlers in the West Bank.
• 19:59
  There is no room. Go and see the West Bank how it
• 20:02
  looks. It's like a Swiss cheese, right?
• 20:04
  Riddled. With even Swiss cheese is an
• 20:06
  exaggeration. They are governing this land.
• 20:10
  They are the the landlords of this region.
• 20:13
  So to believe that there will be a political force who is going
• 20:17
  to evacuating. You know what, if you tell me
• 20:19
  that this settlement is still possible, I'll be the first one
• 20:25
  not only to agree to be enthusiastic about it, because
• 20:28
  it is the most logical settlement.
• 20:31
  Two people share one piece of land.
• 20:33
  Let's share the land. What is more just and logical
• 20:36
  than this? The problem is that this is a
• 20:39
  train that left the station and if we don't realise it and we
• 20:43
  continue to speak about the two state solution, knowing that the
• 20:47
  on the shelf there is some solution, one day we use it so
• 20:51
  we can continue like this with the occupation forever.
• 20:54
  So, so you would say to someone like Keir Starmer, our Prime
• 20:57
  Minister, that to carry on talking about the two state
• 21:00
  solution as a viable option to strive towards is not just
• 21:03
  misguided, it actually provides a cover for this government here
• 21:08
  to carry on doing what they've been doing?
• 21:10
  Definitely, even if any else spoke about the two state
• 21:13
  solution many years ago. So what?
• 21:16
  You know, let's wait. But if there's no two state
• 21:19
  solution, what is the solution? The most simple 1 The democracy
• 21:23
  Have you heard about the democracy?
• 21:25
  I I can't what is that? Tell me so I'll.
• 21:27
  Tell you in a democracy they are equal rights, something very.
• 21:31
  One state. One person, one vote.
• 21:36
  I mean, what else? Look, the real choice right now
• 21:39
  is between an apartheid state or a democracy.
• 21:42
  In my view, there is no third way and we have to choose.
• 21:46
  And the international community, including your Prime Minister,
• 21:50
  has to choose. What do you prefer?
• 21:52
  An apartheid state or a democracy?
• 21:54
  All else is just hollow, hollow lip service.
• 21:58
  So I've met plenty of people in the West Bank and Ramallah who
• 22:01
  say exactly the same thing. And then you say to them, well,
• 22:05
  there's no way that the Jewish state that wants to be a
• 22:09
  majority Jewish state would ever agree to that.
• 22:11
  Because then you're into Christians of demography, who
• 22:14
  breeds more children, you know, who's the majority.
• 22:17
  And given the amount of enmity and tribal hatred that exists
• 22:20
  here, yeah, that may be as an ideal solution.
• 22:23
  But it's about as ideal as these umbrellas floating off into the
• 22:26
  sky. So what is the alternative?
• 22:29
  Well, the it's too dark to even mention, isn't it?
• 22:32
  And there are some people who are talking about it.
• 22:34
  If there is no alternative, I'm not ready to give up and to say
• 22:38
  there is no solution. Because all wars ended, all
• 22:42
  conflicts in history ended one day.
• 22:45
  Germany is today the best ally of Israel in Europe.
• 22:48
  Germany was 100 years ago the worst, worst enemy of the Jewish
• 22:53
  people. And who would believe that
• 22:55
  Germany within decades will become the best ally?
• 22:58
  Things are changing, Things are changing.
• 23:01
  You cannot judge the future according to the present.
• 23:05
  The present looks not very promising, I but at least we
• 23:08
  have a vision. If you say not a two state
• 23:11
  solution, not a one state solution, you, you remain with
• 23:14
  nothing, with living on the sword and getting killed every
• 23:18
  2-3 years another attack every two serious more killed people.
• 23:22
  Who wants to live this life? So to bring it back to events in
• 23:25
  Tehran, the war between Iran and Israel, if, if what you've just
• 23:29
  said is the reality, you know, the forever wars that would just
• 23:32
  go on and on and on and on. Does this war with Iran make any
• 23:36
  difference to that mindset and to that reality, whatever the
• 23:40
  outcome is there? For the short run, maybe.
• 23:43
  For the long run, not at all. What does it make?
• 23:45
  There will be another enemy. There will be another brutal
• 23:49
  tyranny which will want to exterminate Israel and there
• 23:52
  will be Israel who will continue to hold the occupation, hold the
• 23:56
  apartheid and and and do anything possible not to be
• 24:01
  accepted in this region. When I lived in Israel in 1989,
• 24:06
  you know, I covered the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and I
• 24:08
  was able to travel in and out very easily.
• 24:11
  And I was there was a. Taxi station 5 minutes away from
• 24:14
  here. You pay 10 shekels, which is 2
• 24:17
  lbs and you could go to Gaza in 45 minutes.
• 24:21
  It's just behind where we see for lunch.
• 24:23
  It's just behind the the place we see.
• 24:26
  But what I always said then to by by Palestinian and Israeli
• 24:29
  friends is that there are two people most alike in the region.
• 24:33
  And you're the two, right? You, you, you, you have smart
• 24:35
  education. No one else likes you.
• 24:38
  You know, there are Palestinians.
• 24:39
  They're not welcome in Kuwait or the Gulf States or in Jordan.
• 24:43
  You have a diaspora, you know, you have been shafted by
• 24:46
  history. You guys should get along with
• 24:48
  each other. And because, by the way, you're
• 24:49
  sharing the same real estate and there's only one bathroom and
• 24:52
  one kitchen hasn't worked out. Because of politics, because of
• 24:58
  megalomania of certain politicians in both sides.
• 25:01
  By the way, if you take it on the on the social framework or
• 25:07
  social network, you will be amazed how Palestinians and
• 25:11
  Israelis can find the common language.
• 25:13
  If you take two Palestinians from the same social background
• 25:17
  and two Israelis from the same social background and close them
• 25:20
  in a door in a in a room for for a while, they will find much
• 25:25
  more in common than an Israeli and a Britain.
• 25:29
  But getting back to the current war with Tehran, you know, we we
• 25:32
  say, well, that war, you know, ballistic missiles flying back
• 25:37
  and forth, that overshadows the other war that's been raging
• 25:40
  inside Gaza for 20 months. But I wonder whether that war in
• 25:44
  Gaza, which is about the survival of the Palestinians and
• 25:48
  the survival of the kind of state Israel wants to be, that
• 25:52
  is the actual war that needs to be sorted out.
• 25:55
  And all the other wars, including this big one at the
• 25:57
  moment with ballistic missiles. That's the sideshow.
• 26:00
  I couldn't agree more. I couldn't agree more.
• 26:02
  And by the way, Gaza is the real danger for the existence of
• 26:06
  Israel for the long run, because Gaza defines the nature of
• 26:10
  Israel, because Israel is defined but by but by, by what
• 26:14
  it is doing in Gaza. And Israel will become a prior
• 26:18
  state, not because of Iran, because the crimes in Gaza and
• 26:22
  Gaza is the key problem and nobody dares to solve it.
• 26:29
  We like to end ridiculous that this may sound under the current
• 26:32
  circumstances, with a kind of prediction because we are
• 26:35
  casting forward on the forecast. So what do you think will happen
• 26:39
  in the next weeks and months in Tehran?
• 26:43
  You see mate, it's the worst time to ask me this question
• 26:46
  because in two hours I might be wrong.
• 26:49
  It's really questionable. And this, this forecast has to
• 26:52
  survive for at least 24 hours. That's a.
• 26:54
  Problem OK. It all depends on and and.
• 26:56
  You might be wrong because President Trump might change his
• 26:59
  mind. That's what it comes down to.
• 27:00
  The question, the real question is now.
• 27:02
  If Donald Trump comes into the picture with his jets, then we
• 27:10
  might face a dramatic phase in this war which might end it very
• 27:14
  soon. Because if he bombs for do, we
• 27:19
  might see it ending very very soon.
• 27:21
  With the Ayatollah regime collapsing.
• 27:24
  It might include. It might include.
• 27:26
  What about the Iranian saying, you know, we really, really hate
• 27:30
  the ayatollahs, but we hate the Israelis even more?
• 27:32
  You get it now, you get it now. But maybe they will collapse
• 27:36
  because they will remain quite isolated, even more than they
• 27:38
  are today, and very weak. Because don't forget that this
• 27:42
  regime showed now its people that all those big stories about
• 27:46
  its strengths collapsed within five days.
• 27:51
  Iran, Can you believe that 200 Israeli jets can fly over Tehran
• 27:57
  freely and there's no defense system?
• 28:00
  Nothing, nothing, nothing. Like I like the last African
• 28:04
  state. I mean, how can it be?
• 28:07
  And the people see it and they say all those years, you spend
• 28:10
  it so much time and so much money, so many budgets in
• 28:15
  defending ourselves, in building this military power.
• 28:19
  And look, look what we got. Hundreds of thousands of people
• 28:24
  are leaving Tehran now without having any protection, nothing.
• 28:28
  So it might go to so many directions.
• 28:31
  And still, and this I insist, I still believe that everything
• 28:37
  will be worse than a diplomatic agreement.
• 28:40
  That's the only guarantee for a long future.
• 28:43
  All the rest is good for generals and politicians to show
• 28:47
  off, but it will not solve anything in any field.
• 28:52
  Gideon Levy, thank you very much indeed for coming in the
• 28:55
  programme. That's it from the forecast here
• 28:57
  in Tel Aviv. See you next time.