Latest / Bull Market Conversations with Fexingo: Rallies, Momentum, and Riding Market Strength / How Bull Markets Are Reshaping the IPO Playbook in 2026
Transcript
- Lucas: Luna, we talk a lot about how this bull market is reshaping different corners of finance. But I think one of the most fascinating shifts is happening in the IPO market — the playbook companies use to go public has changed dramatically. Luna: Yeah, I've noticed that. We just saw a headline that Anthropic is moving closer to a mega ipo, with bankers lining up investor meetings. And on the flip side, SpaceX has dropped below its IPO price, and short sellers are loading up against it. Lucas: Exactly. That contrast tells you everything about the new landscape. Let's start with Anthropic. They're reportedly targeting a valuation north of $60 billion. That would make it one of the largest tech IPOs in history, right up there with the Alibaba IPO in 2014 or Uber in 2019. Luna: But the route they're taking is different. Instead of a traditional IPO, I heard they're considering a direct listing. Is that the new norm? Lucas: It's becoming more common, especially for high-profile tech companies. A direct listing means no underwriters, no lock-up period, and existing shareholders can sell directly to the public. The advantage is lower fees and no dilution from new shares. The downside? No price stabilization — the stock can be volatile on day one. Luna: And then there's the SPAC route. Remember how hot those were in 2020 and 2021? Now they've cooled off a lot, but they're still an option. SpaceX actually went public via a SPAC merger last year, and it's been a bumpy ride. Lucas: Right. SpaceX's SPAC was at $100 per share when it merged, and now it's trading below that. Short sellers have piled on, betting it'll fall further. But I think the bigger story is that each of these routes has its own set of trade-offs, and companies are picking based on their specific needs. Luna: So what's the traditional IPO offering that these new methods don't? I mean, investment banks provide a lot of hand-holding. Lucas: They do. In a traditional IPO, the underwriters — like Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley — buy the shares from the company and sell them to investors. They set the price, they stabilize the stock after listing, and they provide research coverage. That can be really valuable for a company that's less well-known or needs credibility. Luna: But for a company like Anthropic, which is already a household name in AI, they might not need that credibility boost. They have brand recognition, a strong narrative, and a huge base of retail investors who want in. Lucas: Exactly. And that's where the bull market plays a role. With the S&P 500 at over 7,500 and the Nasdaq at 26,000, investors are hungry for growth stories. Retail investors, in particular, are piling into IPOs through platforms like Robinhood and Fidelity. Companies know they can get a premium valuation without paying underwriter fees. Luna: But isn't there a risk of overvaluation? I mean, if retail investors are driving the price up on day one, the stock can become disconnected from fundamentals. Lucas: That's the classic IPO pop problem. In a traditional IPO, the underwriters try to price the stock so it pops a little, but not too much. In a direct listing, there's no artificial pricing. The market sets the price from the open. That can lead to huge swings. Look at Coinbase's direct listing in 2021 — it opened at $381 and later fell to $31. So it's not for the faint of heart. Luna: And SPACs have their own issues. The sponsors get a lot of shares for cheap, which can dilute retail investors. And there's often a rush to find a merger target, leading to lower quality deals. Lucas: Right. SPACs have a bad reputation now, but they're still a viable path. The key is to look at the sponsor's track record and the target's fundamentals. And in this bull market, there's a lot of money chasing deals, which can inflate valuations. Luna: So what's the takeaway for an investor listening? Should they be excited about the Anthropic IPO? Or wary? Lucas: I think you have to be selective. The IPO market in 2026 is hot, but not every deal is a winner. Look at the business model, the competitive moat, and the valuation. And be prepared for volatility. The days of buying any IPO and flipping it for a quick profit are over — if they ever existed. Luna: That's a good point. And speaking of being selective, I think it's worth noting that we're able to have these conversations without any ads or sponsors. That's intentional. We want to keep the show focused on what matters to you, not on selling you something. Lucas: Yeah, that's a big part of our philosophy. We don't run ads because we think the content should stand on its own. If you find value in these episodes and want to support that approach, you can always buy us a coffee at buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. It's a simple way to keep the show ad-free and independent. Luna: No pressure, obviously. But it does help us keep doing what we're doing. And now back to IPOs — I think another angle is how the bull market is affecting the timing of IPOs. Companies are going public earlier in their lifecycle because they can get higher valuations. Lucas: That's a great point. In a bear market, companies delay IPOs because valuations are low. But in a bull market, they rush to capture the high multiples. That can lead to more unprofitable companies going public, which increases risk for investors. Luna: So we might see more failed IPOs or post ipo crashes when the market turns. But for now, it's a seller's market. Lucas: Exactly. And that's why it's important to do your homework. Don't just buy the hype because the market is up. Look at the numbers, the management team, and the competitive landscape. The bull market giveth, and the bear market taketh away. Luna: Well said. So to sum up: the IPO playbook is evolving, with direct listings and SPACs challenging traditional IPOs. Companies like Anthropic are going big, while others like SpaceX are struggling. Investors need to be discerning. Lucas: And the bull market is the backdrop that makes all of this possible. High valuations, eager retail investors, and a strong economy are fueling the IPO machine. But it's cyclical, so enjoy it while it lasts. Luna: Thanks, Lucas. And thanks to our listeners for joining us on Bull Market Conversations. Lucas: We'll be back soon with another episode. Until then, keep an eye on those IPO filings.