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Daniel Davis Deep Dive · Brian Thomas

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  Speaker 1: The talk station.
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  Speaker 2: Hey, thirty fifty five cars the talk station. It is
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  Speaker 2: that time of the week we get a deep dive
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  Speaker 2: from Daniel Davis, the alertive Daniel Davis Deep Dive with
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  Speaker 2: retired with tenant Colonel Daniel Davis. Find his podcast wherever
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  Speaker 2: you find your podcast and tune into the fifty five
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  Speaker 2: carse Morning Show every Tuesday at this time. Good to
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  Speaker 2: see my friend. I have the privilege to be able
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  Speaker 2: to see your shining, smiling face. And but we don't
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  Speaker 2: have any to talk about today, do we? Daniel Davis,
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  Speaker 2: Wait a second.
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  Speaker 1: I mean there are some things. I guess.
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  Speaker 2: Let us start with ron. I guess based upon Donald
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  Speaker 2: Trump's own words, today was the day the bombs were
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  Speaker 2: going to start dripping. I think Pollymarket heavy over and
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  Speaker 2: under on that one. But we wake up and find
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  Speaker 2: out no. Apparently he had got the request from some
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  Speaker 2: of the golf allies United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia to
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  Speaker 2: hold off, wait for it, We're going to negotiate something.
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  Speaker 2: He said. Well, other countries have come to me and
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  Speaker 2: they said we're getting ready to do a vader very
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  Speaker 2: major tac tomorrow. But put it. I put it off
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  Speaker 2: for a little while. Hopefully maybe forever, but possibly for
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  Speaker 2: a little while, because we've had very big discussions with
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  Speaker 2: Ron and we'll see what they amount to. You're tea
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  Speaker 2: leave freading on whether these discussions will bear any fruit.
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  Speaker 2: Daniel Davis given the Iranians absolute outright rejection up until
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  Speaker 2: this moment of time, and every single demand President Trump
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  Speaker 2: has presented it with, sure.
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  Speaker 1: Well, I mean other than what you said.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, sure, it sounds bad when you put it
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  Speaker 3: like that, but yeah, that's exactly the situation we're in.
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  Speaker 3: And obviously this is not the first time we've been
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  Speaker 3: down this road where President Trump says he's paused the
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  Speaker 3: war or paused his bombing, or paused a operate Project
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  Speaker 3: Freedom in the Persian gold, et cetera.
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  Speaker 1: And every time the other side said, what are you
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  Speaker 1: talking about? We didn't agree to anything.
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  Speaker 3: We're not even talking other than these lists of demands
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  Speaker 3: related and that's the case we're in right now. Almost
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  Speaker 3: immediately after that, the urany side said, there's no negotiations here.
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  Speaker 3: We're passing things back along with some intermediaries. But to
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  Speaker 3: reiterate our positions, we have not given in on anything.
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  Speaker 3: And yet President Trump said in a fresh conference subsequent
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  Speaker 3: to issuing true social that he said, yeah, I think
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  Speaker 3: we're really close to an agreement. And unfortunately he said
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  Speaker 3: that a bunch of times throughout this time, that they've
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  Speaker 3: already agreed to this and that, and then the urate
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  Speaker 3: insight always comes back and says, no, we haven't agreed
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  Speaker 3: to anything other than we've demanded some of you, which
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  Speaker 3: amount to what, frankly surrender. And President posiski In came
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  Speaker 3: out afterwards and reiterated the same thing. Several other people
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  Speaker 3: did so across the board. Your insights says, I don't
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  Speaker 3: know what he's talking about. That's not what we've agreed to.
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  Speaker 2: All right, assuming the status quo remains the status quo
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  Speaker 2: as it has been now since the so called ceasefire
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  Speaker 2: went into, let's walk through what seems to be an
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  Speaker 2: inevitable scenario. So the status quo remains, that's not good
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  Speaker 2: enough for Trump. He doesn't get what he wants when
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  Speaker 2: we start throwing additional rockets and bombs. I don't know
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  Speaker 2: if it means boots on the grounds, But are we
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  Speaker 2: in a better position now from a military perspective to
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  Speaker 2: achieve whatever it is we're hoping to achieve there after
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  Speaker 2: this passage of time. I've read quite a few comments
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  Speaker 2: from military analysts saying, oh, we've been gathering a lot
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  Speaker 2: of additional intelligence. We know more now about where all
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  Speaker 2: of these mystery bases are, and these drone manufacturing facilities,
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  Speaker 2: and where the swift boats might be parked or kept.
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  Speaker 2: We know where these military targets are. And then there's
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  Speaker 2: also that growing concern that this military operation of a
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  Speaker 2: moves forward is going to start bombing the civilian related targets.
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  Speaker 2: What that means in the scope of that remains to
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  Speaker 2: be seen. But do you see us at least militarily
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  Speaker 2: now better than we were, say, six weeks ago, Daniel Davis,
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  Speaker 2: No zero chance.
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  Speaker 3: And listen, it's not like we suddenly discovered where these
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  Speaker 3: underground bunkers are or where these fast boats are located.
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  Speaker 3: We've known that for decades, I mean known. It's hard
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  Speaker 3: for them to build a lot of these things without
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  Speaker 3: knowing it. You see a lot of things that came
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  Speaker 3: out I think it was a Wall.
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  Speaker 1: Street Journal, New York Times, CNN.
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  Speaker 3: Several people done a lot of analysis, and they've said
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  Speaker 3: that even these thirty three bases that we know of,
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  Speaker 3: meaning we know of them, and we were not able
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  Speaker 3: to take them out before. And now you have restocked
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  Speaker 3: your inventory, so you have a much more missiles that
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  Speaker 3: you had the first time. Why does anybody think that
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  Speaker 3: you're going to have any more success hitting a granite
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  Speaker 3: mountain than you had the first time with the same ordinance.
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  Speaker 3: So you may be able to shut off some of
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  Speaker 3: the doors of some of the exit ramps of some
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  Speaker 3: of these underground missile facilities that they have engineering units
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  Speaker 3: that are designed and did during the first forty days
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  Speaker 3: to make them reaccessible again. So you're not going to
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  Speaker 3: succeed the second time on the same target with the
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  Speaker 3: same ordinance that you did the first time. And then,
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  Speaker 3: of course the biggest issue is not what you can
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  Speaker 3: destroy but what they can retaliate against. And they have
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  Speaker 3: been unequivocal and repetitive here of late to say, if
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  Speaker 3: you strike anything else, we are going to hit targets
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  Speaker 3: that we have not fired at. Is the energy systems,
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  Speaker 3: the oil production facilities, pipelines and water treatment facilities, desalinization plans,
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  Speaker 3: which are vital for literal survival of any of these
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  Speaker 3: regimes in their in the region. So the military thing
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  Speaker 3: is if you go down that path. It's a duel,
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  Speaker 3: it's double had set it side and coin there. You
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  Speaker 3: don't get to just hit them and a trip them.
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  Speaker 3: It's a two way straight and so when you launch
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  Speaker 3: your first one, you've.
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  Speaker 1: Got to be prepared for whatever follows next. And if
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  Speaker 1: you can't do that, then you can't take step one.
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  Speaker 1: That's part of the analysis. It's missing and is absolutely
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  Speaker 1: vital to understand well.
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  Speaker 2: And that's obviously serves to suggest why the United our
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  Speaker 2: memorates in Saudi Arabia and other of the other countries
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  Speaker 2: were insisting that Trump do a pause on this and
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  Speaker 2: try to get some negotiated peace. But like you said,
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  Speaker 2: when we started out, we kind of a sense of
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  Speaker 2: agreement that they don't seem to want to move and
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  Speaker 2: aren't going to go anywhere. So this campaign, this military campaign,
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  Speaker 2: seems inevitable, doesn't it.
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  Speaker 3: No, it's not inevitable, because I think that there's enough
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  Speaker 3: people and I know this for certain on the inside
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  Speaker 3: that our most senior military commanders are telling the President
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  Speaker 3: exactly what I just told you, And I think that's
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  Speaker 3: the reason why we've had these multiple pauses when it
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  Speaker 3: looked like we were right on verge of something because
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  Speaker 3: he realizes and is being told it won't work and
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  Speaker 3: they will respond like that and that causes profound long
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  Speaker 3: term harm economically, and I think that is pushing him
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  Speaker 3: off this. So I still think that there's a decent
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  Speaker 3: shot that he finds some way to just declare victory
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  Speaker 3: and walk away, because I'm just telling you there won't
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  Speaker 3: be a negotiated settlement in the foreseeable future, I mean
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  Speaker 3: long into the future, because the Uranum side calculates the
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  Speaker 3: same thing I just told you that day times is
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  Speaker 3: on their side. They are being hurt bad from both
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  Speaker 3: the blockade and from the previous round, and they know
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  Speaker 3: they would be hurt again if it goes back back
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  Speaker 3: to fighting. But they think that they can endure their pain,
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  Speaker 3: and they seem very confident of this longer that we
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  Speaker 3: can endure the pain that would happen on the other side.
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  Speaker 3: And they are very immovable on their terms. So I
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  Speaker 3: don't think there's going to be a negotiated settlement. There's
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  Speaker 3: no military solution, So that only leaves in my view,
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  Speaker 3: the only.
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  Speaker 1: Plausible path is for Trump.
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  Speaker 3: You just say, Okay, we've caused them enough harm it
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  Speaker 3: we'll go back. If they ever do it again. But
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  Speaker 3: we're just going to leave and leave it to them
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  Speaker 3: to figure out. That's the best chance we have right now,
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  Speaker 3: and I think there.
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  Speaker 1: Is a chance of that.
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  Speaker 2: Well. In the Iranians seem to have some sense of
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  Speaker 2: American politics. Donald Trump's staring down the barrel of a
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  Speaker 2: November election which may flip the Senate, maybe the House.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, you know, this is a problem in a
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  Speaker 2: gamble that he's risking because the American people are struggling
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  Speaker 2: mightily with the massive increase in inflation brought about by
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  Speaker 2: this gasoline and diesel problem. They are aware of our
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  Speaker 2: political situation here.
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  Speaker 1: Correct, Believe me, yes they are.
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  Speaker 3: I mean I've interviewed a few of them Romasho just
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  Speaker 3: to get their sense of it. I looked at some
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  Speaker 3: of the comments that other officials are bad publicly, and
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  Speaker 3: they're keenly aware of that. And listen, I think President
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  Speaker 3: Trump is too. And I think that not a commonly
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  Speaker 3: understood factor that could be coming today with the election
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  Speaker 3: in Kentucky of republic Or Representative Massey and his fight
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  Speaker 3: with his challenger there, that Trump is massively back in Oh,
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  Speaker 3: we over twenty million people, I'm sorry, twenty million dollars
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  Speaker 3: have been put behind Massi's opponent, and if all of that,
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  Speaker 3: with the way the President Trump's endorsement with Secretary Hext
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  Speaker 3: going down and campaign and for this challenger, if that
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  Speaker 3: fails and he loses, I think that could have a
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  Speaker 3: bigger impact on Trump saying, Okay, we're in real troll
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  Speaker 3: for November. I've got to get this thing off the
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  Speaker 3: deck now because the best that we had couldn't even
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  Speaker 3: beat this one guy in our primary. So I think
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  Speaker 3: that that could have a surprising impact on his decision
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  Speaker 3: to get out of this if it goes bad.
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  Speaker 2: That's an interesting take. Trust me, my listening audience is
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  Speaker 2: painfully aware of the Massy Gallerin race. They've been dominating
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  Speaker 2: the commercial cycle. You can't turn away or turn anywhere
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  Speaker 2: without seeing that argument back and forth between their campaign
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  Speaker 2: ads and head congress from Massy on in seven o'clock hour,
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  Speaker 2: talk to him for a half hour. Daniel and forty
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  Speaker 2: million dollars so far in that election. If you added, look,
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  Speaker 2: it was twenty well maybe the other side has spent twenty.
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  Speaker 2: But collectively, if you go to television ads, radio ads,
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  Speaker 2: Maylers and everything, he thinks in the aftermath it's going
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  Speaker 2: to be closer to forty. But it's already well documented
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  Speaker 2: that the spending on advertising is at thirty three, making
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  Speaker 2: it the most expensive congressional race in the entire history
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  Speaker 2: of this nation.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, that is unbelievable that so much stock has been
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  Speaker 1: putting in.
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  Speaker 3: And I think it's a I think the President's making
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  Speaker 3: a big gamble here because if it doesn't work, I mean,
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  Speaker 3: it damages this brand across the board.
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  Speaker 1: So I think they put too much stock in this
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  Speaker 1: one race.
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  Speaker 2: Well, we are going to wait to see. I know
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  Speaker 2: our northern Kentucky voter friends have strong conviction, sir, and
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  Speaker 2: that's why they have repeatedly sent Massy back in spite
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: of the fact that he is known as mister no
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  Speaker 2: pivoting over Russia. Headline from the Wall Street Journal today,
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  Speaker 2: Russia War is going badly on the ground end of
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  Speaker 2: the air, I guess just from an initial standpoint, and
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  Speaker 2: you've been pointing out the superiority of the Russian military
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  Speaker 2: since we started talking about this invasion of Ukraine some
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  Speaker 2: time ago, Daniel Davis, did you ever think it was
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  Speaker 2: going to take this long to accomplish whatever the Russians
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  Speaker 2: are hoping to accomplish because apparently they haven't made any
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  Speaker 2: gains in land. They're suffering with massive, massive losses, loss
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  Speaker 2: of life, soldiers killed, and the Ukrainians have apparently adapted
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  Speaker 2: to this method of warfare and are starting to use
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  Speaker 2: drones of their advantage, even launching strikes into Moscow the
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  Speaker 2: other day. What do you make of this?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that some of this enthusiasm is is
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  Speaker 3: a little unfounded and overblown. There has been some definite
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  Speaker 3: advances with the Ukraine side on the drone warfare side,
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  Speaker 3: especially the long range drones, not.
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  Speaker 1: Just the ones on the tactical side.
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  Speaker 3: Because they are losing so many men, are having so
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  Speaker 3: much trouble even press gaining guys to come to the front,
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  Speaker 3: they are now relying like massively on the drones himself
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  Speaker 3: because they don't have the manpower.
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  Speaker 1: And that is still.
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  Speaker 3: It's slowed Russia down in a couple of places, but
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  Speaker 3: it hasn't stopped them. In fact, the Russia is in
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  Speaker 3: the middle of an offensive operation in the Zaparichia area
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  Speaker 3: that is gaining territory. I don't know why the Wall
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  Speaker 3: Street journalist isn't mentioning that they actually are on the
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  Speaker 3: move again. There and are focusing on this big strack
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  Speaker 3: that came into Moscow. Most of it was shot down,
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  Speaker 3: a few of them did get through, and they don't
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  Speaker 3: seem to be talking about the one thousand and five
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  Speaker 3: hundred that came in the Russian direction about a day.
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  Speaker 1: Before that too.
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  Speaker 3: So there is still very much viable in there, and
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  Speaker 3: as I've been talking to a number of folks to
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  Speaker 3: here almost show recently, there is growing anger in Russia
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  Speaker 3: at the very issue.
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  Speaker 1: You said, how can this be lasting this long?
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  Speaker 3: And to answer your first question, no, I did not
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  Speaker 3: think that it would be going four and a half
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  Speaker 3: years and still no end inside And that's apparently the
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  Speaker 3: view of many in the Russian side. They're mad at Putin,
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  Speaker 3: not for the fighting in the war, they're mad at
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  Speaker 3: him for not fighting it hard enough, and they're pushing
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  Speaker 3: him hard to escalate and to do things different, potentially,
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  Speaker 3: according to some folks, even striking military targets in NATO countries,
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  Speaker 3: at the factories where these long range drones are manufactured,
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  Speaker 3: where these missiles are manufactured, which obviously you're talking Article
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  Speaker 3: five and the potential for a clash. But many on
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  Speaker 3: the Russian side or say they're fed up with this
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  Speaker 3: and they're ready to do whatever it takes to actually win.
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  Speaker 3: So I think this is one of the more dangerous periods.
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  Speaker 3: And ironically, the fact that your Ukraine side is having
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  Speaker 3: success with some of these longer range missiles actually puts
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  Speaker 3: to the war more risk of escalating, because Russia says, look,
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  Speaker 3: the only way that Ukraine can do that is with
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: direct help from the UK from the western side through
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  Speaker 3: their airspace and the Baltics their technology, their targeting capability, intelligence.
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  Speaker 3: And they say, therefore, you are in the war, and
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  Speaker 3: we're stupid for not responding in kind.
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  Speaker 1: And we'll see if Putin gives into that.
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  Speaker 3: He's been very a risk averse, but that pressure on
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  Speaker 3: him inside could eventually push just beyond that if enough
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  Speaker 3: Russians get angry.
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  Speaker 2: That is a frightening reality something to be learned there.
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  Speaker 2: If we pivot back over to look at the situation
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  Speaker 2: the United States Israel against Iran. We spent how many
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: a decade in Afghanistan, didn't really accomplish anything in there.
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  Speaker 2: Big giant militaries versus really really convicted people. They can
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: do a lot of world hurt, can't they. Well, the
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  Speaker 2: Ukrainians have a conviction. The Russians are fighting that out
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  Speaker 2: there four and a half years in. It seems to
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: me there might be something to learn from just that reality.
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  Speaker 3: And that one's a little bit different, because do you
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: have the conviction on both sides of that line? And
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: so now that it's gonna that's that's why I feared
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: that it could escalate, and we should have gotten this
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  Speaker 3: off the table a long time ago.
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  Speaker 2: Someday you and I will be talking about the end
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: of the conflict and the end of the loss of
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: life today that day. Daniel Davis Deep Dive every Tuesday
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: beginning at eight thirty here in the fifty five Cars
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: Morning Show. Follow him online where you get your podcast.
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: God bless you, sir. We'll talk next week. See then
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: eight forty four fifty five KRC detalk station. Phone lines
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: are open if you want to keep a call. Five one, three, seven, four,
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