Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA Show | May 11, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

Transcript

MMA Show | May 11, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  The fall system's going on. Clear were lifting? What's going on? Everybody
• 0:38
  Happy Friday? You know what Friday means? My man, Big Mat Marley
• 0:42
  and I talking some fights. Was supposed to be thirteen now we got twelve,
• 0:47
  which is definitely a little unfortunate. Not the week we wanted either with
• 0:51
  the live final on the round second round. Five for five baby from Shipping
• 0:56
  Nation or if you're a part of which I knew was a part of Shiping
• 0:59
  Nation. I got through Hoop got through sheets. Of course, sheets is
• 1:03
  all over the place. He's in the discord a ship in Nation, so
• 1:04
  I'm calling him there? And why was I thinking five for five? Me?
• 1:08
  Who j J something? Yeah, I know it's JB. I wanted
• 1:14
  to pull up to get his exact one. So maybe only four. I'm
• 1:17
  not sure why I thought five, but Jay, I'll get right there j
• 1:21
  B or J p B A r R O four as well, So maybe
• 1:26
  four for four. I know Whop had another seat didn't get in, so
• 1:29
  four for five if you want to go that way. Toll fight's not great
• 1:32
  though, Hey, so got one hunter k up top. I think Rio
• 1:36
  was in the ship for last week with Anthony Smith too. Rio ships showed
• 1:38
  down yesterday as well. Absolutely out of fire. Yeah, absolutely absolutely out
• 1:44
  fire. Right there, We're in Saint Louis. We got a live crowd.
• 1:48
  It's a fight night card or I almost called you g riis and I'll
• 1:51
  talking too much baseball g rising. Oh gosh, it's a fight night card.
• 1:56
  But I think it's actually one of the best fight night cards we've had
• 1:59
  in terms of violence and fun fights. I mean my broadside overview will throw
• 2:02
  to you, say hi to. People will go fight by fight main card,
• 2:07
  way better fights, way better inside the distance props. Ownership will follow
• 2:12
  these prelims. The mid tier not great like j J. Alder were not
• 2:15
  Veronica Hardy to start it off a fight, people are gonna ignore Hadley Charles
• 2:19
  Johnson a fight. Not many people will get to Tabitha Ricci Tours in the
• 2:23
  mid tier, not many will get to. So I think it's pretty clear
• 2:25
  where ownership's gonna go. We're supposed to have thirteen fights. Juseett Gooden is
• 2:30
  now off good and didn't even weigh in because of some medical problems, which
• 2:34
  is a little said. I like ju set in that fight as a somewhat
• 2:38
  interesting pivot kind of I thought in the upper tier. I thought this Spain
• 2:42
  was higher. Own thought Rebecca would be higher. Rouned, I thought one
• 2:46
  other person was gonna be higher rowned too all. Maybe it was those two
• 2:52
  to Spain Rebeccy, Yeah, those two for sure. So yeah, toll
• 2:57
  fights very good a lot. The last thing I will mention, I'm just
• 3:00
  rambling at this point. So many short dogs outside of Rebecca who's minus five
• 3:04
  to ten, we have nobody over minus two sixty five, which is Carlos
• 3:08
  Albert. And again DraftKings, how they price. They don't want to have
• 3:12
  two seventy six hundred fighters FanDuel. They're fine having four fighters at fourteen dollars
• 3:16
  because they all go about money line odds. DraftKings, that's not the case.
• 3:21
  So you do have a lot of underdog money line value, and a
• 3:24
  lot of them have solid inside the distance props as well, which can lead
• 3:28
  you to leaving more money on the table, etc. Because it's not crazy
• 3:31
  to see multiple plus one sixty dogs win and like a two favorite four underdog
• 3:38
  like this could be a card. We see that. So that's all my
• 3:39
  broad so sayed, overviews lumped into one jumping all over the place, though
• 3:45
  ge kyper Ben Lone Wolf Whaler, some Mirror, bring the noise. Michael
• 3:49
  Peterson came, bro, appreciate you guys hanging out Big Marley. Time to
• 3:53
  throw it to you. How's your day going. How do you think this
• 3:54
  card is? Yeah, I mean it kind of just got flipped on its
• 3:59
  head. My original contrarian play was gonna be Jared Gooden, and I didn't
• 4:03
  even know it was canceled until ten minutes ago. So just kind of catching
• 4:08
  up. And now I got to figure out other ways to get different because
• 4:11
  I'm targeting all the fights that everybody else is targeting. Just I guess I'm
• 4:15
  just hoping to get the right combination now and I'll split with the winners.
• 4:18
  But I do want to think of some ways to get a little bit different.
• 4:21
  I just haven't had time to do that yet. So we'll talk it
• 4:24
  over. I'll go over things as as we're talking about it, and then
• 4:28
  hopefully some some things will start to pop in the head. But I originally
• 4:31
  had fifty lineups. I liked how they looked, and now I just messaged
• 4:36
  DraftKings to pull them all for me, you know, start from scratch,
• 4:40
  So we'll see how it goes. I do think it's a good card though.
• 4:43
  I think I have more five star ratings than I ever have before though,
• 4:46
  and those are gonna be the fights that everybody wants to target, So
• 4:48
  I'm ready to get into it. Yeah, I mean when Terrence mckinni's on
• 4:51
  the card, when Derek Lewis is on the card, I mean, I
• 4:56
  guess Alberg a little bit too, like when Flava Clause and Hay Hooper go
• 5:00
  at it. Like, there's just so many fights it's really hard to make
• 5:02
  a case to fade to ignore. It is going to be popular. You
• 5:05
  can eat chalk in MMA, just surrounding with a low one fighter, leave
• 5:10
  a thousand on the table. That's what I'll be looking to do, and
• 5:13
  chalk your cards. Let's start. Actually, no before we go again,
• 5:15
  appreciate everyone hanging out like button, subscribe button if you want to join us
• 5:19
  at the Nation though, huge week for DFS. If you're a DFS player,
• 5:24
  you're a sports fan, you know it's a monster week. MMA,
• 5:27
  NASCAR, PGA Showdown, NBA Playoffs, MLB, NHL playoffs. That's six
• 5:33
  right there. League of Legends is probably going on some so to esports.
• 5:38
  I know we do have a channel in there. Josh Hart, Joshua Hart
• 5:41
  put some stuff in there once in a while. I don't know if tennis
• 5:44
  is still going. I imagine I know Jack Humphrey, some other people.
• 5:48
  Again, this isn't We don't have a product. We don't have like projections.
• 5:51
  We don't charge for it. But members do play the sports. They
• 5:55
  put a little tidbits in the discord. Hey, there's probably even more than
• 5:58
  six sports going on this week if you want to make some money, But
• 6:00
  we do have the six MMA, NASCAR, PGA show Down, MLB,
• 6:05
  NBA Playoffs, NHL Playoffs, No better time get over. Also celebrating one
• 6:11
  year anniversary on Wednesday, last chance to get in for the lowest prices before
• 6:15
  they go up fifteen percent off if you use they or the promo code at
• 6:18
  b Day fifteen for monthly for six months for annual packages. Some people are
• 6:25
  charging what we're charging. If you do the annual packages package comes out to
• 6:29
  about forty two dollars a month. People are charging that literally just for MMA
• 6:32
  or just for some other niche sports. If you have all the sports.
• 6:35
  The shift deviser now, if you haven't heard about that, check out the
• 6:40
  PGA show from two weeks ago on Wednesday, Tambwain Hoop talked a lot about
• 6:44
  that. It's our own optimizer, still working on a lot of stuff behind
• 6:46
  the scenes on it. PGA MLB. If you have MLB only, can
• 6:50
  do the MLB optimizer PGA only. Check out the PGA optimizer. If you
• 6:55
  have monthly, six month annual right now, you can mess around with both
• 6:59
  of them for absolutely no costs. It will be charged eventually, it's gonna
• 7:02
  be under one hundred dollars for content and the optimizer can't beat that deal in
• 7:08
  the industry. And we will have MMA. It is on the horizon.
• 7:11
  I think we're like three weeks out NASCAR Optimizer as well, so very excited
• 7:15
  for that. Let's talk to MMA though, Big Marley bottom the top twelve
• 7:19
  fights again. These first couple fights, for the most part, are a
• 7:23
  lot worse than the next than the last fights, and ownership will follow.
• 7:28
  Veronica Hardy JJ Alder kicks off the card minus one forty one. Hardy plus
• 7:31
  one twenty one is Aldric. Its fight is the most likely to go the
• 7:35
  distance on the card. It's plus three hundred to finish Hardy plus four hundred
• 7:41
  Aldrick plus seven hundred. I ain't playing JJ Aldrick. I'll tell you that
• 7:46
  for free. That chick has zero upside unless she's fighting liang Na, who
• 7:49
  everyone has upside against. Unfortunately, she is cut as of yesterday, so
• 7:54
  the DFS printer no longer exists. But yeah, I mean outside of leang
• 8:00
  And has never scored over one hundred and just no upside in this fight,
• 8:03
  So easy faith for me there. I'll throw it to you on this question.
• 8:07
  Can Hardy, Like, is Hardy gonna wrestle a lot in this fight?
• 8:11
  I think she's probably gonna try and shoot for some takedowns she wasn't scared
• 8:13
  for against Juliana Miller, and that's what I want. Like, I think
• 8:18
  Hardy's interesting. She'll be in my pool. And that's because if she does
• 8:22
  wrestle, maybe four takedowns, maybe it's six minutes of control time ground and
• 8:26
  pounds strikes. I don't know. It's low level, mid level woman's MMA.
• 8:31
  Probably gonna go the distance. It's probably not gonna score great, but
• 8:35
  it's gonna be low owned. And if I'm eating a lot of chalk,
• 8:39
  maybe Hardy will Hardy will be someone that I mix and match in. Do
• 8:43
  I love it? No. If she somehow outscores Derek Lewis, though,
• 8:46
  that's when you'll be looking at a unique shipper a lot less dupes as a
• 8:50
  pivot in a bad range where all the ownership's going to Derrek Lewis and the
• 8:54
  Hooper fight. Not much to add though, talk about if you think Hardy
• 8:56
  will wrestle and then break it down. Yeah, I don't see her matching
• 9:01
  four takedowns that she had in that Miller fight. I mean, she looked
• 9:05
  like a wrestler in that fight, but she's really a striker. So I
• 9:07
  expect this fight to mainly play out on the feet, not too crazy of
• 9:11
  a pace, no knockout. So I'm just gonna make it easy and I'm
• 9:15
  gonna exp both of these fighters out of my playpool. Hardy's never scored one
• 9:18
  hundred points, take leang Na out of the question, and neither is Aldridge.
• 9:22
  So this is gonna be my favorite fight to fade on the entire card.
• 9:24
  Hope it doesn't burn me right out of the gates. But I think
• 9:26
  this is gonna be a split decision. So I picked Aldridge because she has
• 9:30
  that plus next to her name, But I have no lean in this one.
• 9:33
  And I don't think I even care who wins for DraftKings. I expect
• 9:35
  like sixty five points from the winner, and that's not gonna cut it.
• 9:39
  So exiting these guys out making it a little easier for the rest of the
• 9:43
  card. But I think everyone else on this card is pretty playable, especially
• 9:46
  now that we have the Juicett and Good and fight off. There were some
• 9:50
  other fights that I was probably gonna get away from, but now I guess
• 9:52
  I gotta bring them back in a little bit. Yeah. So, no,
• 9:56
  you don't think this fight hits the matt really at all, or if
• 9:58
  it does, goes right back like if all the kids a takedown, Hardy
• 10:03
  gets up vice versa, I would say neither fighters getting more than two takedowns
• 10:07
  a cool Yeah, And if you tell me that it goes a decision,
• 10:11
  it's really hard to see. Like these girls aren't gonna be landing one hundred
• 10:16
  and eighty significant strikes or anything to break this late. So yeah, I
• 10:18
  think it's really just wrestling. I'll have some Hardy in case the takedowns are
• 10:22
  there, But I don't like this fight really at all. Yeah, supposed
• 10:26
  to be just set good in Maybe it saved me a little bit because I
• 10:28
  was gonna have a decent amount of du set. He's been impressing me again.
• 10:31
  That fight is not on the card, and maybe it's a blessing in
• 10:35
  disguise. I'm not having Yeah saved one of us. Yeah, I mean
• 10:39
  I was truly debating him in the Q team as well. I thought he
• 10:43
  was gonna be a little overlooked. I thought he was gonna probably make it
• 10:46
  a little easy. You might have scared me though, So don't have to
• 10:48
  worry about good and jeue set maybe for another day. Next fight on the
• 10:52
  card, Jake Hadley Charles Johnson had the eighty six hundred Johnson seventy six hundred
• 10:58
  odds only minus one twenty eight for j. Cadley plus one oh eight for
• 11:01
  Charles Johnson fights plus one ninety to finish Hadley plus three hundred Charles Johnson plus
• 11:09
  four eighty. So we've seen a lot of line movement in this fight.
• 11:11
  Open minus one forty five plus one twenty five Hadley. Hadley got all the
• 11:16
  way down to like minus one sixty literally just three days ago Tuesday, he
• 11:20
  was minus one sixty. Now it's minus twenty eight. So Charles Johnson's taken
• 11:24
  a lot of money. This is kind of what I said in the beginning.
• 11:28
  They won't price anybody the same on DraftKings unless it's like a late NOS
• 11:31
  replacement. They have to. I mean, this fight should be priced.
• 11:35
  We literally just talked about eighty two hundred eight K Hardy Aldrich and this is
• 11:39
  a closer line right now and minus one third or minus one twenty eight one
• 11:43
  o eight. So this should be the eighty two hundred AK fights. And
• 11:48
  you're getting Ben Johnson at a four K discount, Hadley at roughly a four
• 11:52
  hundred dollars overspend. I still am not sure here. I'll look quick at
• 11:56
  our Everything will be up on the site shortly after this. Projections, ownership,
• 12:01
  fight rankings, et cetera. I'm looking right now. We have Charles
• 12:07
  Johnson seventeen percent, Hadley fifteen percent. Yeah. I don't want to say
• 12:11
  them all, but this is important. Hapley. I think you can use
• 12:13
  in very chalky lineups, kind of like we talked about. And maybe there's
• 12:16
  some wrestling upside because Johnson's been taking down a ton, but I think Charles
• 12:20
  Johnson's the right side because he can't get controlled on the mat. I trust
• 12:24
  his cardio more. Maybe Johnson can get some takedowns like Hadley's been taking down
• 12:28
  plenty two does have solid grappling. I don't think he submits Charles Johnson though,
• 12:33
  and on the feet, good cardio, some volume, and he's seventy
• 12:35
  six hundred bucks, So I prefer Charles Johnson, even at seventeen percent compared
• 12:41
  to fifteen percent. I don't like Hadley much at all. It's really just
• 12:45
  in really chalky lineups, and I still might even fade him at the end
• 12:50
  of the day. So give me Charles Johnson this one. However, does
• 12:52
  he have Kenny beat Chase Hooper, Kenny beat Terrence McKinney in a win,
• 12:56
  Canny beat Billy Goff in a win? Can he beat wall Corsa Costin will
• 13:01
  win? Like? I have him ranked all below them in terms of ceiling
• 13:05
  but he's obviously more likely to beat all of im, Roozie Boy of another
• 13:07
  one, et cetera. So yeah, take this one away. I like
• 13:11
  Charles Johnson to win DFS, though I'll be probably overweight just because of the
• 13:16
  nature of this card and his ownership. Do I love it though? Not
• 13:20
  really? Yeah, I'm actually I'm like changing my opinion on this one.
• 13:26
  I did this fight on Tuesday, I believe, and Hadley was over minus
• 13:28
  one sixty, so I picked Johnson because I figured the value was on his
• 13:33
  side. But now the line's kind of catching up and Hadley's still one thousand
• 13:39
  dollars more on DraftKings, so his ownership's gonna go down while Johnson's is climbing
• 13:43
  a little bit. And I'm starting to switch it to where now Hadley's my
• 13:46
  contrarian play at this point. If Hadley wins, most of it's gonna come
• 13:50
  on the ground. He can land high volume in the in the early rounds
• 13:52
  too, as long as he's not gonna slow down, but he's his biggest
• 13:56
  edge is gonna be on the ground. My issue is that he's had four
• 14:00
  UFC fights and he's never landed a takedown. But right here, you're going
• 14:03
  against the guy who's been taken down like a hundred times in his UFC career,
• 14:07
  so it's there for the taking. Both of Hadley's wins are over one
• 14:09
  hundred points on DraftKings, and I do think he has one hundred point ceiling
• 14:13
  here where Johnson is playing for ten X in my eyes, and I don't
• 14:18
  think ten X gets it done on this card, but I do think he's
• 14:22
  a live dog to win. So the way I see it is I might
• 14:24
  match the field, maybe even go a little bit lower on Johnson now that
• 14:28
  the ownership is climbing, and then Hadley was going to be more of a
• 14:33
  fade to me too before, But now that Goodin's off the card, I'm
• 14:37
  looking at Hadley as my possible contrarian play to get a little bit different,
• 14:41
  because even in a decision, I think he can score over ten X but
• 14:45
  maybe even one hundred points. But he's nasty on the ground. He could
• 14:48
  get a submission even though Johnson hadn't been submitted yet. He's got pretty good
• 14:52
  striking too while he's fresh. So I picked Johnson to win. But my
• 14:56
  preferred DraftKings play now is going to be Hadley. And the more that this
• 15:01
  line changes, I think the Hadley ownership will keep shrinking a little bit too,
• 15:05
  and that makes me like more and more so preferred play Hadley. But
• 15:09
  winner is the underdog. Yeah, I definitely Headley ownership is gonna be very
• 15:13
  low, Like there's no he can't get on. Derek Lewis will get be
• 15:16
  a lot higher owned for one hundred dollars less people rather go up to the
• 15:20
  Ribavis to the Slava. Claus is even less owned. Right there, the
• 15:26
  Buffley fights interest and yeah, like it's a it's a tough plick at Hadley
• 15:30
  at this money line, and it still might even keep closing, Like I
• 15:33
  wouldn't be surprised if it goes off minus won twenty one hundred, like even
• 15:37
  minus won fifteen a pop or something. So yeah, I'd still prefer the
• 15:41
  Johnson side, But I do everything you said about Hadley. He can get
• 15:46
  Johnson can be taken down. If Hadley gets four takedowns ten minutes of control
• 15:50
  time, there is a one hundred plus ceiling, no doubt about that.
• 15:52
  So a low owned fight, I'll have both of them. Prefer Johnson,
• 15:56
  though personally for the one kse savings. What are your thoughts, Big Marley,
• 16:00
  just say this this fight, Uh, it starts a third round?
• 16:03
  We know that for sure. Is Johnson going to like double him up in
• 16:07
  volume? Do you feel way better about his pace he ripped to the body
• 16:11
  or you think it still be a competitive five minutes on the feet. Yeah,
• 16:15
  the third round I feel like would be Johnson. I don't know about
• 16:18
  doubling them up, but like, if there's a finish in the third rounds,
• 16:22
  probably Johnson really pushing for it. But I could see Hadley maybe winning
• 16:26
  the first two rounds at that point, maybe it's just too late for Johnson.
• 16:30
  So I don't know. I would just rather target the higher ceiling underdogs
• 16:33
  that I don't feel as good about winning. Yeah, but that's what I
• 16:37
  said last week about All Dough and I ended up fading All Dough and that
• 16:40
  burned me. So maybe just wasn't he wasn't on the winner? Was he?
• 16:44
  Was he on the window? Was he not? There was only two
• 16:45
  underdogs that won. I didn't even look at the optimal because I knew I
• 16:48
  wouldn't around it. But just like going into that fight, I was like,
• 16:53
  all those my favorite dog, I think he should be favored, but
• 16:56
  I still didn't even use him, and he was one of two dogs up
• 17:00
  winning, and I could just see that being the case for Johnson. Maybe
• 17:02
  not many dogs end up winning and he puts up seventy nine points and can
• 17:07
  maybe get there. Yeah, hold on, I'm trying to see uh if
• 17:12
  Rio, what day would that man? So many messages in discord I know
• 17:18
  he posted it right here. Yeah, it wasn't uh No, he wasn't
• 17:22
  on the winner. It was Pantosia Anthony Smith brito or a bly Coasta hoofy
• 17:29
  because he got the coasta in the mid tier, or a b the brito
• 17:33
  was kind of in the mid tier. Anthony Smith was such a punt so
• 17:36
  yeah, he was so cheap. Yeah it makes sense. Yeah he wasn't
• 17:38
  even in there. But you are right. You were definitely right though.
• 17:41
  Yeah, only two dogs one. It's still weird. Like if Johnson scores
• 17:45
  and score seventy five in a win like I would, I wouldn't have none
• 17:49
  in case, like a lot of the favorites one. But I wouldn't have
• 17:52
  much at all because so many closely line fights, I'm expecting some do.
• 17:56
  Like I think you'll probably need six hundred on the winner this week. Like
• 18:00
  these dogs. Plenty of dogs have one hundred plus point upside. We'll keep
• 18:03
  it going right right into one that does have one hundred point upside in my
• 18:07
  opinion, which is Billy Goff as a plus one forty five dog against Trey
• 18:11
  Waters, who's minus one seventy. This fight's minus two twenty to finish Trey
• 18:15
  Waters plus one fifteen Billy Goff plus two thirty. I'll throw it right to
• 18:19
  you in this one big tail to tape advantage, height disadvantage. Trey Water
• 18:25
  is kind of Bobby Green esque in my opinion. Throws from the hip,
• 18:30
  The shots come at weird angles. Good striker. Now he doesn't talk like
• 18:33
  it. Maybe not the shoulder role as much, but some of it's striking.
• 18:37
  That's what I look at. Unorthodox, but definitely gets the job done.
• 18:41
  Put a pace on Quinlan, doubled them up. Look really good.
• 18:44
  Last fight, Billy Golf a junkyard dog. How do you see this fight
• 18:47
  going? Who gets their hand raised? Yeah? I like this fight both
• 18:51
  sides of it. I am picking Waters to win, but I like Goff
• 18:56
  more than Johnson because GoF has one hundred percent finish right. If go Off
• 19:00
  wins this fight, he's got a really good chance at the optimal lineup.
• 19:03
  And if he wins and Johnson wins, he's outscoring Johnson. So I just
• 19:07
  like to target ceilings. Even though I'm picking him to lose. I think
• 19:08
  Golf is a great play and I'd even be fine with him in my single
• 19:12
  entry. But I'd also be okay with Waters In my single entry, we
• 19:17
  got what is it minus two to zero five that the fight ends inside the
• 19:22
  distance. Both of these guys are alive for the knockout, and they could
• 19:26
  also land a couple takedowns along the way too. But the way I see
• 19:30
  it is just Waters being a little bit too slick, just peppering golf up
• 19:33
  on the feet, and I think those will start to add up, and
• 19:36
  then the longer this fight goes, I think it plays into waters favor.
• 19:40
  My issue is that I'm picking Waters to win a decision, and at eighty
• 19:44
  eight hundred dollars, it's probably gonna be tough for him to make the optimal
• 19:47
  lineup in the decision, So that makes me like it less. But that's
• 19:51
  just my prediction. I don't always go off my predictions. I like to
• 19:52
  look at at Vegas metrics and everything too, So if Waters goes out there
• 19:56
  and gets a first round knockout, he's also not super owned on this card.
• 20:02
  I don't know. I'm finding Waters in my single entry too. This
• 20:04
  is one where I just see them both being like in a quarter of my
• 20:08
  total lineups, and I would be fine with either one in a single entry
• 20:12
  I'm picking Waters to win, but if I end up with more Golf exposure,
• 20:17
  I'm fine with that. I just think that this is gonna be a
• 20:19
  fun fight for as long as it lasts. It's one of my favorite fights
• 20:22
  on the card from a watching purpose. But I do think it'll be fireworks,
• 20:26
  especially early. But I see Golf kind of slowing down as the fight
• 20:30
  moves along, just based on his style alone. He throws everything and every
• 20:33
  punch he has, and when he's going for takedowns, he's going for hard,
• 20:37
  heavy takedowns too. So I just think he slows down and Waters doesn't.
• 20:41
  And Waters wins to maybe even all three rounds on the scorecards. But
• 20:45
  if Golf wins, he's got a really good chance with that up to Milena.
• 20:49
  Oh yeah, if Golf wins, he yeah, Like it's not guaranteed,
• 20:52
  because again, there's Terence McKinny, there's Chase Hooper, there's Roosie Boye.
• 20:57
  Like, there's plenty of dogs this car that have one hundred plus point
• 21:00
  upside, but and Golf is definitely one of them. I don't have much
• 21:03
  more to add, Like, I'm on your side. The seventy inch height
• 21:07
  advantage for Waters five inch reach advantage. I mean he's just a slick striker
• 21:11
  like Water got pillow hands. I don't know if I'll quite go that far.
• 21:15
  I mean he has plus one fifteen inside of distance, plus one thirty
• 21:18
  five by knockouts. I don't know. Quinlan has I think a solid hit
• 21:23
  too. He showed it in the last fights against what left hand from God
• 21:27
  before he got put away or something. He ate a ton of damage,
• 21:30
  but it is more touch him up at distance, get like avoid the big
• 21:34
  shots, and I think that's what he's gonna do. I think he'll just
• 21:37
  outpoint Golf for the most parts, avoid the big shots. I do think
• 21:41
  Golf will probably try and wrestle a little bit if he is getting tagged early,
• 21:44
  might have some success. It's kind of hard to control Water's on the
• 21:48
  map being so long though. My preferred play is Golf for the fourteen hundred
• 21:52
  dollars savings, and like, I think you can leave fourteen hundred dollars the
• 21:55
  table in this card in the large field the three dollars the fifteen dollar Like
• 22:00
  if Golf at plus one forty five beats Waters, which isn't crazy at all,
• 22:03
  leaving fourteen hundred dollars. You just fill the Waters lineup and go golf.
• 22:07
  That can get the job done, I think on this card and something
• 22:10
  I'll be looking to do in the very large stuff, especially with thirteen fights
• 22:15
  down to twelve fights. Yeah, I don't really have too much more to
• 22:19
  add. Like I don't want to say I think GoF has more upside than
• 22:22
  Waters, but I think it's pretty close because I think Gof's more likely to
• 22:26
  wrestle the first round props on both guys. I guess Waters is much better
• 22:30
  plus two fifteen in round one compared to Golf at plus six fifty, So
• 22:34
  backtrack a bit on that. At the end of the day you mentioned it
• 22:37
  though Waters will be one to lower own people in the upper tier, I'll
• 22:41
  be using trade Waters like I like trade Waters a lot more than I like
• 22:44
  Handley as a lower tier pivot as a lower owned option in the upper tier,
• 22:48
  so I'll be playing Waters in chalkier lineups. I'll be going golf in
• 22:52
  more like when I have some low owned spot when I'm leaving money on the
• 22:57
  table, since it is easier to leave money when the table with Golf.
• 23:00
  But I do think he comes in probably more popular or at least right around
• 23:04
  the same as Waters with the savings. So I got Waters, I got
• 23:07
  him. I think I said by decision too, not a confident take by
• 23:11
  that at all. I wouldn't be surprised if he knocked him out. I
• 23:14
  wouldn't be surprised if Golf landed a big one or wrestle ground and pound,
• 23:18
  et cetera. Plus one fifteen inside of distance Waters plus two thirty for golf,
• 23:22
  and it was plus two sixty earlier in the week, So it has
• 23:25
  moved in his favor, which is nice to see golf trains with a six
• 23:30
  seven do with longer reach than Waters. A lot of these, I mean
• 23:33
  some of these one to fifty five ers trained to like one eighty one eight
• 23:36
  or one eighty five is and stuff too good information if you like that,
• 23:40
  if you think that helps him in this one, definitely good. But I
• 23:42
  mean seven inches at hype five inches of reach is absolutely no joke. Next
• 23:48
  fight on the car Tabatha Ricci Tisha Pennington, which was t Sha Torres,
• 23:52
  who's what coming off a two year layoff she had a baby minus one forty
• 23:56
  plus one twenty plus two seventy five for this fight to finish Ricchi plus four
• 24:02
  hundred inside the distance. Torres plus six hundred another one of those lower owned
• 24:07
  mid tier fights that it's hard to see end up on the optimal, especially
• 24:11
  on the Torus side. Like Torres is al dirt for me, she just
• 24:14
  does not have a ceiling in my opinion, easy fade there. Ricchi's my
• 24:18
  preferred play, but I'll throw it to you with the same question as the
• 24:22
  Hardy fight. Is she gonna land take down some control time because I think
• 24:25
  that's what she needs to hit her ceiling. Yeah, I don't. I
• 24:32
  don't know. I don't think she does, but she does have the higher
• 24:34
  ceiling with her wrestling game. But I'm picking Tisha to win, and I
• 24:41
  would be more confident in Tisha winning if it wasn't for the two year layoff
• 24:44
  and having a baby. I'd probably favor slightly. I just flipped the line,
• 24:48
  I guess, But this is another one where it was like, I
• 24:51
  wouldn't lay juice on Rischi, so let me just go ahead and pick t
• 24:53
  Shit with the plus money as my prediction. But I'm picking her by split
• 24:59
  decision. I don't see a real ceiling for her, but she did score
• 25:03
  well against Angela Hill just by landing a lot of volume. And I do
• 25:07
  think if she can keep this fight on the feet, she could land decent
• 25:10
  volume and maybe score eighty six points or something like that. I doubt eighty
• 25:15
  six gets it done, but maybe so. I'm not gonna ex her out
• 25:18
  of my player pool, but I think she'll be a little bit lower on
• 25:22
  than Ricci, and she's probably my preferred play for that reason. Even though
• 25:27
  Ricci is the ceiling play of the two, I would just rather target other
• 25:32
  favorites who have higher and more likely ceilings. Se Yeah, give me Tsha
• 25:37
  to win a really close fight, but I think most of this fight takes
• 25:40
  place on the feet, and we're gonna need a lot of volume to have
• 25:42
  any chance at like a ninety plus score. But I doubt either one of
• 25:45
  them are hitting ninety in this one. Yeah, I'm with you. Torres
• 25:48
  lash Pennington is my preferred play if I had to bet this fight with the
• 25:52
  slight dog money. I think it's a really close fight. I think it
• 25:56
  mainly stays on the feet. The reason I prefer Ricci to Torres is because
• 26:00
  if someone has six takedowns in this fight or a lot of control time,
• 26:03
  it's on the Ricci side, there's no doubt about that. Do I think
• 26:07
  it happens, No ownership will be low enough, I think again, I
• 26:11
  do think Ricci's higher on than Toys, but I do think her upside is
• 26:15
  higher. Yeah. If Torres goes out there and puts an angel Hill type
• 26:18
  performance hunter plus significant strikes, dominates their scores ninety five or whatever, maybe
• 26:25
  it's good enough. I will not have her, though, probably takes me
• 26:29
  forty plus teams, maybe fifty plus teams to get any tourus personally. Again,
• 26:33
  not a great fight, though. We just talked about what four fights
• 26:37
  the Aldrick HARDI fight bad, Hadley Johnson fight bad, Waters Golf fight good,
• 26:41
  Riccie Torres fight bad. Now we're gonna get into banger banger banger cheeks
• 26:48
  banger banger, banger banger. So let's get lock in. It's gonna be
• 26:52
  a lot of fun. Ownership's gonna follow. Expect some big scores, though
• 26:56
  right here, can't get a better fight. I mean it's on the prelimbs.
• 26:59
  It might be the best fight on the card. That's about Ribovicks taking
• 27:02
  on Terrence McKinney. Anytime you see the name Terence McKinnie. You know inside
• 27:06
  the distance will be juiced to the gills minus eight hundred for this fight to
• 27:10
  finish under one and a half minus two twenty Reba Vicks minus one fifty McKinny
• 27:15
  plus one eighty. I'll be playing a ton of this fight now. I'm
• 27:18
  gonna throw it to you on this big marley. How does Terrence McKinnie not
• 27:22
  get takedowns early and get in dominant position like I feel like that's got to
• 27:26
  be the most free of all free. Rebevick's a very good striker, I'll
• 27:30
  say very good striker. I love his hands, I love how he mixes
• 27:33
  it up. He can get taken down though. I mean Hegan's got what
• 27:37
  eleven times in his debut, Kirk took him down early, had him problems
• 27:41
  in round one. The Kenny's dangerous. He can wrestle people. Forget he
• 27:45
  what a college wrestler he has. I'm grappling out him two. He probably
• 27:48
  needs to get it done in the first round. I'm saying Terres McKinny in
• 27:52
  round one, and I'm saying by sup, because I think he can go
• 27:55
  out there and get takedowns early. I'm trusting him to actually finish a fight,
• 28:00
  just scary. In round one he's done in plenty. If he doesn't
• 28:03
  like against Nazine, he dies. I think I think the Zeine's grappling,
• 28:07
  in his defensive grappling is better than Reebevic. So give me the dog in
• 28:11
  McKenny. If McKinney doesn't win, though rebe Vicks probably puts up a big
• 28:15
  score. But last thing on this, I'm a little hesitant on that because
• 28:18
  if you say Rebevics second round KO, that could mean McKinny with four minutes
• 28:23
  of control time in round one Nazine like he did all right, Now he's
• 28:27
  gas in round two? Is McKenny He gets a finish in the first minute
• 28:30
  two minutes of that second round, that's probably not enough. That's probably like
• 28:34
  ninety ninety five, especially because McKinney's fine, not taking a beating like he'll
• 28:38
  quit in the second round, which I'm not gonna hate on him, like
• 28:42
  he knows he's not winning the fight, live to fight another day. He's
• 28:45
  so active with his fights, bonus machine, like all right, I'll take
• 28:49
  less damage, lose this one because I already gave it my all. Get
• 28:52
  back here in four months and try and get another bonus. So yeah,
• 28:56
  I'm rambling at that point. Give me McKenny first round. So yeah,
• 29:00
  I don't disagree with anything you said, and I would say that the only
• 29:03
  way McKinny is not landing takedowns in round one is if he's going for the
• 29:07
  knockout in round one. I would favor McKinny in this fight if it was
• 29:11
  a five minute fight. I think he's gonna look really good in round one,
• 29:15
  but he should be going for takedowns and I think he could probably dominate
• 29:18
  that first round, if not finish. But if he makes it out of
• 29:22
  that first round, he's gonna end up quitting on himself at some point and
• 29:25
  it's just gonna be all Ribovis from there, and that's when Ribovis can start
• 29:30
  piling on points. Plus he's gonna get his finished bonus at some point too.
• 29:33
  So I like both sides of the fight. But I do think we
• 29:36
  can make a case for a Ribovis winning in the second round and just not
• 29:40
  making it because he lost the first. Whereas if McKinny wins this fight,
• 29:44
  he's on the optimal lineup. So I think that's probably gonna lead me to
• 29:51
  more McKinny lineups than Ribovis because there's a lot of favorites I want to get
• 29:55
  into my lineups. But McKinny has like the highest ceiling on the entire card
• 30:00
  probably and he's seventy three hundred dollars, so I'm picking him to lose.
• 30:03
  I do think he's gonna up quitting on himself at some point and Ribovis wins.
• 30:07
  But the best way to get an investment in Terrence McKinney is on DraftKings
• 30:11
  because he just breaks slates when he wins. His lowest score outscores Ribovic's last
• 30:18
  win at ninety two, and I think if McKinny wins, here is gonna
• 30:22
  be like one hundred and five plus with one hundred and thirty point upside.
• 30:27
  So I can't pass up on that. I want more than I probably want
• 30:33
  more than a third of my lineups to have McKenny, I think at this
• 30:36
  point. And then I'm kind of the same with Ribovis. I want like
• 30:38
  thirty percent, maybe thirty five percent rib of vis It's just that he's gonna
• 30:44
  be harder to fit in my lineups because there's a lot of favorites that I'm
• 30:45
  fine squeezing in there, and I could just see him getting out scored in
• 30:49
  a win where nobody's outscoring Kenny if if McKenny, if he wins, especially
• 30:55
  as underdogs, so banger fight. This is my second favorite fight on the
• 31:02
  card as a whole to target UH Spain, Uh Hooper Hooper fights my favorite,
• 31:08
  okay because because of the Spain the Spain, I like his side.
• 31:15
  I don't really care for the fight as a whole Gosch, but yeah,
• 31:18
  I'm gonna be loading up on this fight. I don't even hate like at
• 31:21
  this point with there's twelve fights on the card, but in my opinion,
• 31:25
  there's eleven fights on the card, so I'm exing out that first one.
• 31:27
  I might just make a rule man where I lock in one of these guys
• 31:32
  and one of the Hooper ones. I can see the case for Ribovik's not
• 31:34
  being there, which makes me not want to do that, but I just
• 31:37
  want to load up on the on the those two fights, get as much
• 31:40
  as I can throw some into the pot and just hope to get the right
• 31:41
  combo for sure, And I will say, like the we mentioned earlier,
• 31:47
  you can leave fourteen hundred on the table. I can make a Rebovick's lineup
• 31:51
  and go Terrence McKinney. It's a lot easier leaving money on the table when
• 31:55
  you play someone like Hooper, you play someone like McKinney, when you play
• 31:57
  someone like Goth Because all three of them, while they are seventy four hundred,
• 32:01
  seventy five, seventy seven, I would not be surprised if any of
• 32:05
  those were the highest scores on this late regardless of the price. I would
• 32:08
  score as the main event, I would score as Rebeccy, O, would
• 32:10
  score as Albert, et cetera. McKinney has that type of upside, and
• 32:15
  the dudes plus two to twenty in round one at seventy five or seventy three
• 32:20
  hundred, Like, you just never see that. Let me double check,
• 32:22
  he's seventy three. Yeah, you just never see that. Plus two hundred
• 32:27
  for Remavicks, I will I will say I was a little surprised to see
• 32:30
  Rieba Vicks with a slightly better round one prop than McKinney. I don't personally
• 32:34
  agree with that. I'm like, it's a lot of that's on the second
• 32:37
  half of the fight, unless they're just banking on McKinney. Trying to knock
• 32:40
  out Reba Vicks and throw down. But let's just say that, Big Marley,
• 32:44
  what do you cap this fight at? Just knowing McKinney's gonna come out
• 32:47
  and just win. He can knock Ribavicks out, he hurt over, you
• 32:52
  know, like if it was anyone but Drew Dober's, Dover's knocked out.
• 32:55
  Like, I don't think it's crazy that McKinney knocks out Riba Vicks, Not
• 33:00
  at all. No, but he's he's dangerous, yeah, like even in
• 33:04
  a like if this is a one round fight and they're not allowed to go
• 33:07
  for takedowns. I think mckennie's super live in that first round. I think
• 33:10
  he's more dangerous in the in the first two minutes of the fight. He's
• 33:15
  a lot more live for a sixty second bonus than Ribovicks's. It's just it's
• 33:21
  just he's gonna quit on himself if he doesn't get that finished. Though,
• 33:23
  I will, I swear. When I started the card, I was like,
• 33:27
  what the heck mckennie like plus one fifty. I was like, I'm
• 33:30
  definitely gonna be betting him, And then I started digging into the tables.
• 33:32
  Damn it. He's gonna end up getting pieced up if he if he doesn't
• 33:36
  get that finished. So I think that the line should be a little bit
• 33:38
  closer. But just Ribovicks has just more ways to win because mckennie's first round
• 33:45
  or bust, and Ribovicks is a nasty striker. He even landed some takedowns
• 33:49
  in his last fight. I mean it was against kind of a gas Kirk,
• 33:51
  but we're gonna have a gas McKinny here, so I think he land
• 33:53
  takedowns, do whatever he wants after the first round, and just pile up
• 33:57
  points. So I'm just gonna load up on this. Want to hope that
• 34:00
  the winner scores over one hundred. YEP. Definitely makes a lot of sense
• 34:02
  to me. Most Terrence McKinney fights do keep it rolling. Next fight,
• 34:06
  Big Marveley's favorite fight on the card. I cannot argue that one bit.
• 34:09
  Slavia Claus Borschev taking on Chase Hooper minus one thirty eight boris Chev plus one
• 34:15
  eighteen Chase Hooper minus three twenty five for this fight to finish, boris Chev
• 34:20
  plus one hundred inside the distance Chase Hooper plus one ninety five. So I
• 34:25
  will say a lot of line movement in this fight Open minus one forty five
• 34:30
  Borischev plus one twenty five. Hooper get all the way down to minus two
• 34:34
  hundred a couple of days after the open was sitting at minus one eighty just
• 34:37
  last week and slowly butch early and May fourth minus one seventy five, slowly
• 34:43
  but surely. Hooper's been taking money. Hooper's been taking money. Everything I
• 34:46
  see on Twitter, they either love Chase Hooper, they love Slavia Claus.
• 34:51
  Shout out our guy John Kelly. Don't see him the YouTube chat here,
• 34:54
  see him a lot in the YouTube chat though. Every time I pull out
• 34:58
  Twitter, I feel like I see my man John Kelly at the top talking
• 35:00
  about how Chase Hooper is gonna own Slavin Clause because he has no takedown defense.
• 35:07
  See, they're gonna go that way with Chase Hooper getting a takedown,
• 35:09
  taking the back, just getting to the fight, getting the fight to the
• 35:13
  mat at some point, and from there it's all Chase Hooper or it's gonna
• 35:16
  be Slavia Clause. I don't even know necessarily. Stuff in the takedowns just
• 35:21
  kind of like the Steve Garcia Chase Hooper fight. If you haven't watched that
• 35:23
  fight. It'll take you like four minutes of your day. Go watch it.
• 35:28
  Absolute murder. Steve Garcia just not chase Hooper down three times. Hooper
• 35:31
  couldn't do anything. He looks like a little kid against a grown man.
• 35:36
  We could very well see that slav clause, nasty kicks, nasty striking.
• 35:39
  Hooper is a dead man at distance, or its just probably a dead man
• 35:44
  on the ground. So whose style is gonna prevail? Yeah, I'm loading
• 35:49
  up on this. This is the one. I probably make a rule that
• 35:52
  I want one hundred of this fight because I just think this is as binary
• 35:58
  as it gets. Like you're gonna have destroy him on the feet, or
• 36:01
  Hooper's gonna take him down and just mop the floor with them. I mean,
• 36:05
  not really mop the floor, but take him down and then just put
• 36:07
  on a grappling clinic. More so, and I think we're gonna get a
• 36:10
  knockout from Borschev or I say, or a submission from Hooper. But it
• 36:15
  wouldn't shock me to see like him flatten them out and just got like a
• 36:19
  ground of pound t KO something like that, I guess. But I just
• 36:22
  think we're getting a finish in this fight either way, then I think the
• 36:24
  winner is gonna put up more likely one hundred plus points. If Borchev wins,
• 36:30
  he could get you know, one to four knockdowns in that first round
• 36:34
  and still win. Uh. And I just think that his striking in that
• 36:37
  first round is gonna be just nasty, like nastier than Hooper's takedowns are for
• 36:42
  sure. So I'm leaning Borschev as my preferred play. But I could see
• 36:47
  me having like sixty percent Borschev forty percent Hooper and and hopefully being over the
• 36:52
  field on both of them. But I mean, he just wouldn't shock me
• 36:57
  at all to see Hooper get one takedown Borschev never be able to get back
• 37:00
  up, and then I have freaking sixty percent lineup, so zero points on
• 37:05
  it. So I don't know, I don't have a strong Hooper And he
• 37:08
  gets all that you're fine with that because you're at least still overweight, Like,
• 37:13
  I get what you're saying, but sixty percent lineups dead is not fun.
• 37:16
  But you really just need the optimal, which is why I don't care
• 37:19
  about any of that. If if I have ninety percent dead, but just
• 37:22
  say a five percent on fighter that I had ten percent of one. Hey,
• 37:25
  at least I have double the field on what will be in the optimal
• 37:29
  So yeah, and I was I've been hoping that John Kelly was gonna make
• 37:36
  this an even line because if this was a pick them fight. I do
• 37:39
  favorite Borschev, and I will bet Borschev if we get a pick them fight
• 37:43
  here. But I think the line is right right now. I don't think
• 37:46
  that there's any value on him. I just think that we load up on
• 37:49
  this fight for DraftKings because the winner probably is on the optimal lineup. Hey,
• 37:53
  Ryan Cox, appreciate that, man. I always have the energy.
• 37:58
  I'll pumped for tomorrow anytime we're talking fights. Nothing better than fights on a
• 38:01
  Saturday on your TV. Appreciate you hanging out with us always. Ryan.
• 38:06
  Hope you're doing well. Like bund subscribe button and get helps us out a
• 38:08
  ton if you want to join us at the Nation. Best ownership in the
• 38:13
  MMA business. Thanks to Big Marley, slate plan, fight rankings, projections,
• 38:16
  all going up will be loaded in the Solver. NASCAR this week and
• 38:21
  NBA Playoffs, NHL Playoffs, MLB, PGA Showdown one year anniversary next Wednesday
• 38:28
  for Ship the Nation. What a great time to be alive. What a
• 38:30
  great time to be a sports fan, A lot of money to be made.
• 38:34
  D Day fifteen is the promo code. Lock yourself in for the lowest
• 38:37
  prices before they go up fifteen percent off monthly, six month or annual packages.
• 38:43
  If you just want to try us out for the week, see what
• 38:45
  we got to offer, twenty four dollars a week. It is a good
• 38:49
  time to do it with all those sports going on, no discord, no
• 38:52
  promo code. Still, if you want to give us a try just for
• 38:54
  the week before you do go, month, six month, whatever it may
• 38:58
  be, twenty four bucks a week, perfect time to try it out with
• 39:00
  all these sports going on. Next fight on the card, and this one
• 39:05
  I'm talking about a little boring, boring, boring. To start the card,
• 39:07
  We're going Terrence McKinney to a Chase Hooper fight to a the Spain fight.
• 39:12
  I mean, come on now, it doesn't get any better than that
• 39:15
  fight night card could be a pay per view card. Someone said, I
• 39:17
  think it's gonna deliver like the pay per view card, better than a lot
• 39:21
  of pay per view cards. I think minus or let's go Rebellus to Spain
• 39:25
  minus two fifty taking out Wall though Courta's Acosta plus two ten. This fight's
• 39:30
  minus eight hundred to finish under one and a half minus two twenty five to
• 39:36
  Spain minus one eighty. Courts is Acosta plus two fifteen. All right,
• 39:42
  everyone's gonna be playing the Spain. He's actually, I think with dusef With
• 39:46
  the Juette fight off, even more ownership goes into Spain. Even more ownership
• 39:51
  goes to ret Becky, who already thought were the two highest owned up top,
• 39:54
  which why I was disappointed to see that fight off. Since I did
• 39:58
  think Jussette could outscore or both of them. I thought there was a path
• 40:01
  to Spain. The six to seven monster taekwondo monster never made it outside of
• 40:07
  first round knock preaching out in like eighteen seconds. Everybody's so high on this
• 40:12
  guy. The UFC knows what they're doing. They're giving him someone that I
• 40:16
  won't say won't shoot for takedowns, but we haven't seen it. It'd be
• 40:21
  very unlikely, however, I mean, man, if I knew I was
• 40:24
  fighting this rebellosus Spain dude, and I had a month or two month training
• 40:29
  camp, I might just be shooting takedowns and offensive wrestling because it's not fun
• 40:32
  to stand at range against this guy. Well, those are courts of Acosta,
• 40:37
  though, I guess I'll throw it to you on this a. Do
• 40:39
  you think he mixes in takedowns? Which I don't think so. But let's
• 40:43
  just say this fight gets out of the first round, Like, who are
• 40:45
  you favoring? At that point, I'll be playing a coach as Acosta as
• 40:50
  leverage off a very popular favorite in a very volatile fight, because we have
• 40:53
  no clue what the Spain will look like after round one if courts as Acosta
• 40:58
  is somehow alive. But my pick is the Spain my first round knockout because
• 41:01
  he's getting the fight he wants and I freaking learned my lesson and Jamal Hill
• 41:06
  and Alex Pereira, like some of these guys when the UFC k new,
• 41:09
  like they're given you a primary striker that's not going to wrestle. Why am
• 41:13
  I taken Jamal Hill against the primary striker? Easy to say that now,
• 41:16
  etc. But that is kind of my thought process what I had in this
• 41:21
  fight. It's like, man, why am I taking a guy that's just
• 41:22
  going to strike and give him the fight he wants against his freaking beast what
• 41:28
  it looks like in the Spain. So when I fade this Spain, it'll
• 41:30
  probably be against a wrestler for the first time. Yeah, dispain my first
• 41:35
  round KO. With that being said, I might be more overweight to a
• 41:38
  cost than because I do think he's one of the best game theory plays ominous
• 41:43
  late when he wins. Big boy upside, low ownership, plenty of lineups
• 41:47
  dead. That's how you can solo ship if someone like a Coastal wins take
• 41:52
  it away. Will you asked me a question in there about des Spain.
• 42:00
  Do you think he's going to wrestle after round one in the wrestling yep,
• 42:02
  after round one. I do favorite a coast I think if this is gonna
• 42:07
  go to a decision, I think a Coastal wins two and three. But
• 42:09
  if it makes it out around one, I think a coast is more live
• 42:12
  for the knockout, probably even in round two and three. He's a big
• 42:15
  boy, and I mean de Spain is like the type of fighter that I
• 42:21
  usually fade like a striker, only you're gonna have to get a knockout at
• 42:24
  nine K in early knockout two. Uh, if you want to be on
• 42:28
  the optimal lineup. But that's what he does. I mean, he's got
• 42:31
  four wins that have a combined fight time of thirty seven seconds. Like,
• 42:36
  so add all those times up, you're still getting your sixty second bonus and
• 42:37
  scoring one hundred and twenty seven fricking points. So I liked I like de
• 42:43
  Spain because I think that the UFC wants him to win. Uh, And
• 42:46
  I like to follow that when I when I think UFC has a motive and
• 42:51
  it's that sixty second bonus that we're really aiming for. I mean, he
• 42:53
  he was like running backwards, like on his back step and knock this guy
• 42:58
  out with one shot in his last fight. And then you got a Coosta
• 43:00
  who scored fifty points in a win against Darlavsky. He scored fifty nine points
• 43:06
  in a win against Vandera like suck more, buddy, h. So I'm
• 43:09
  on the I'm on the the Spain side because I think a Costa can win
• 43:13
  this fight and just not come anywhere close to him McKinney or a golf or
• 43:19
  or there's like two or three others for Coastal. If I'm telling you right
• 43:22
  now Coasta wins this fight. What percent. Are you playing in that I
• 43:25
  played him at one hundred maybe maybe maybe not me. I think he is
• 43:30
  live for like sixty five points in a win. But I went to look
• 43:35
  at my my percentages that I had in fifty but DraftKings already pulled him.
• 43:39
  But I want to say I had twenty two percent Acosta, which puts me
• 43:44
  overweight. Yeah, but I feel like I had like sixty percent to Spain
• 43:47
  something like that. I believe he was my highestlen fighter. So I'm just
• 43:52
  gonna I'm gonna get leveraged to both of them, but I'm gonna be more
• 43:54
  around that eighty percent rather than all in like I will on a Hooper BORSCHEV
• 43:59
  because of the acousta side. If the Spain wins, I don't think it's
• 44:02
  a lock that it's gonna be a first round knockout, but I think that's
• 44:06
  his most likely path to victory, and it's gonna be hundred and five plus
• 44:09
  points unless it's a freaking sixty second, then it's gonna one hundred and twenty
• 44:13
  five plus points. And that's what That's what scares me away from fading the
• 44:16
  style that I like to fade. I'm gonna be heavy on him and then
• 44:20
  I'll just get a little bit of leverage on the Acasta side. But yeah,
• 44:24
  this is my third favorite ooh, maybe fourth favorite fight on the card.
• 44:29
  I don't know about it. This is like a tie for the main
• 44:31
  event for me because I could make a case for both of them not being
• 44:35
  on the optimal lineup. But I think we're getting a first round knockout from
• 44:37
  the Spain, so I'm gonna have a lot of them. Yeah, I
• 44:40
  mean it's not every day you see literally the most likely outcome in this fight
• 44:45
  is the Spain in round one, which is minus one twenty, Like that's
• 44:49
  insane. Round one is plus six hundred. Then you can see how close
• 44:53
  these odds get round two Dispain plus seven hundred a coast to plus seven seventy
• 44:58
  five, So pretty much that's the same round two odds. I'm always looking
• 45:01
  bet online, way different round one odds, pretty much the same round two.
• 45:06
  And if this fight gets to round three, plus eleven hundred for Costa
• 45:09
  plus sixteen hundred for de Spain. So they're saying, kind of like us,
• 45:13
  if this fight somehow gets to a third round, it's it's hard to
• 45:16
  favor to Spain with never seeing him get that far where we have seen a
• 45:20
  coast to get that far. Yeah, I don't really have much more to
• 45:24
  add, I think to Spain in round one two, but I might have
• 45:27
  more costa because I think he's the game theory play, one of the best
• 45:30
  game theory plays of the week. Next fight on the card, very very
• 45:35
  short for me. I said, bang or bang or banger, Cheeks,
• 45:37
  bang or bang or banger. This is the Cheeks fight real life. I
• 45:42
  don't know two solid fighters Sean Woodson Alex Casaris minus two to twenty five is
• 45:45
  Woodson plus one ninety is Casarus. This fights plus two hundred to finish though
• 45:51
  Woodson plus three seventy five Alex Caseras plus four to twenty five. Then you
• 45:55
  look at the pricing in this fight. We have or Woodson ninety one one
• 46:00
  hundred and Cassra's seventy one hundred. Like, I'm just not playing Sean Woodson
• 46:04
  in twenty eight teams or less with the plus three seventy five inside that we
• 46:07
  just talked about, nine K to Spain, who is minus one twenty in
• 46:09
  round one, one hundred dollars more you can pay someone that's plus three seventy
• 46:15
  five just to finish the fight period. Now Sid has a tail to tape
• 46:17
  advantage. He's a good volume striker, but Alex Caceras can make fights boring.
• 46:22
  Just a good technical You don't want him to take your back. You
• 46:27
  don't want to get on the mat with him, so be safe on the
• 46:29
  feet. But a bouncer on on the outside pick his shots. If he
• 46:32
  somehow lands a head kick, like maybe he can get there at the end
• 46:36
  of the day. Though this is one of my least favorite fights on the
• 46:38
  card, if not my least favorite, I am not playing either side in
• 46:42
  twenty entry and below Sean Woodson. My decision is my pick. If I
• 46:45
  had to pick one of these fighters, I would take the two K savings
• 46:49
  and play Alex Casera. So I think it's live at his don't love his
• 46:52
  upside relative to these other dogs we talked about. Yeah, I pretty much
• 46:58
  agree. I think that Woodson wins the fight because he'll be able to keep
• 47:01
  the fighting on the feet. He's going to be the better boxer with the
• 47:04
  higher volume. But I just don't see Woodson making the optimal lineup unless he
• 47:08
  gets a first round finish and his first round finish odds are plus eight point
• 47:14
  fifty, which is ten and a half percent. So that's what I'm gonna
• 47:17
  max my my Woodson exposure at which is about the field, literally what I
• 47:22
  think will be about the field. Yeah, and I would with twenty or
• 47:25
  less when I'm handbuilding, I won't be clicking on this guy. But I
• 47:29
  would be okay with eleven percent woods in because that's like just a way to
• 47:31
  get different really on this card. But if Cassarras wins, I feel like
• 47:36
  a submission is his best path to victory, and that would that could be
• 47:42
  enough for the optimal lineup. Could I also think he's somewhat live in a
• 47:45
  decision, but he's playing more for ten x if that in that case.
• 47:49
  So yeah, overall, not looking to target this fight, but I'd be
• 47:52
  okay with ten to fifteen percent either side. I'm just picking Woodson to win,
• 47:58
  which makes me like Casara's So yeah, give me Woodson just to win
• 48:02
  and score like eighty eighty points. I like it, you and I see
• 48:07
  it the same. The fist fight is on the winner. It is probably
• 48:09
  not a good day at least in the large field stuff. It's not a
• 48:13
  good day for me. Four fights left Mateo's Rebeccy the biggest favorite on the
• 48:17
  card at minus five ten taking on Carlos Diego Ferreira plus three eighty five.
• 48:22
  This fight is minus two to five to finish. Rebeccy minus one fifty Diego
• 48:28
  Ferrera plus five sixty. So, I mean, Carlos Diego Ferra, now
• 48:31
  what, thirty nine years old, definitely getting up there, which you don't
• 48:36
  like to see, especially at these lighter weight classes. The dude's still skilled,
• 48:39
  though, like I, minus five to ten feels a little wide.
• 48:45
  Yeah, I mean, I'm definitely not betting it's by any means. However,
• 48:51
  I do think Rebeccy's probably better wherever this fight goes. I think he
• 48:53
  can stay safe on top with takedowns. Fer Ara good grappler. Rebeccy's strong
• 48:59
  on top though Salad wrestling on the feet. Freh can land a big one.
• 49:04
  But I do think Rebeccy's the minute winner, also has power himself.
• 49:08
  I don't know what I'm talking like this for a minus five to ten favorite,
• 49:10
  though, it's usually not how we just say he's gonna absolutely kill him.
• 49:15
  But I will say on this card when I don't like Ashan wooson up
• 49:19
  top. I think you can poke a hole in Alberg Buckley could very well
• 49:23
  lose, like we poked a little hole in Rio Vicks. Maybe I just
• 49:28
  think there's enough live dogs where salary is not too crazy that I'm just gonna
• 49:32
  play a bunch of Rebeccy because I think he has the highest floor and plenty
• 49:36
  of ceiling upside. And you can still leave like eight hundred on the table
• 49:39
  with the Rebeccy lineup and feel fine with those Goss McKinney's Hoopers of the World,
• 49:45
  etc. So I'm not playing fer Era, even though I think the
• 49:47
  line's wide. I'll be playing a lot of Rebeccy because I think we have
• 49:51
  a salary for it in a tier of his own for the money line still
• 49:54
  expected to finish, and I do think he can mix it in takedowns here
• 49:58
  and I think he will. Do you think he will? And then break
• 50:00
  down this fight? Yeah, I actually have this line. I have rebec
• 50:07
  He's like twelve and a half percent too wide in this fight right here.
• 50:09
  Who does that come out to or something? Right? I have him.
• 50:14
  I believe I cap fights on a five percent range, so I capped him
• 50:21
  sixty eight to seventy three percent, so right around seventy percent if you're going
• 50:24
  to make it an exact line, which would be minus three hundred. But
• 50:30
  for DraftKings like, he is a beast. He he's got power, He's
• 50:35
  a really good submission artist. He can wrestle, and he can also strike
• 50:39
  at a pretty high pace too, So I do think he can put up
• 50:43
  a good score. I just think that this is the toughest fight to date.
• 50:45
  And if if Diego was just a little bit younger, I'd man,
• 50:50
  I'd probably be betting him. I mean, he is the value side already
• 50:52
  in my opinion, but I think he loses, which is which I haven't
• 50:57
  so I haven't bet him yet. For that reason, I probably won't bet
• 51:00
  him. But I also wasn't gonna use any Diego when Gooden was on the
• 51:06
  card because I had I had a stupid amount of good none even that much
• 51:09
  it was. But uh, now that that's off, I feel like Diego
• 51:14
  probably does make my pool, but maybe like a ten percent play or something
• 51:17
  like that. And then Rebeccy, I probably just matched the field, if
• 51:22
  not go a little bit lower like I feel like with MMM, I'm cool
• 51:24
  matching the field, maybe even getting a little bit of leverage. But I've
• 51:28
  been trying to get away from him in my single entry, even if it's
• 51:31
  just to leave salary on the table, to get a little bit different.
• 51:35
  So that's kind of how I see me playing this one. I think Rebeccy
• 51:37
  does win, but I don't think he tops one hundred for the first time
• 51:40
  in this fight, and I think he probably scores like eighty to ninety five
• 51:45
  points, and even ninety five points shouldn't get it done on this card.
• 51:49
  So I'm leaning towards just underweight on the fight as a whole. But with
• 51:55
  that cancelation, it's just gonna bring a little bit more of both of them
• 52:00
  into my lineups. I'm guessing if I had to put a number on both,
• 52:02
  an exact number that I'm gonna have exposure to, I feel like eight
• 52:05
  percent Ferreira, thirty five percent Rebeccy, something like that. That's what I
• 52:08
  see in my head. But give me Rebeccy to win a decision. So
• 52:13
  do you not think Rebeccy, you said eighty five ninety five? Do you
• 52:15
  think it mainly stays on the feet and like maybe a takedown or two.
• 52:20
  I think he'll get takedowns, but I do think it would be like two
• 52:24
  to four takedowns because Diego is dangerous on the ground. Yeah, uh so,
• 52:30
  I just don't know how much Rebeccy wants to play there. But Rebeccy's
• 52:34
  freaking really good on the ground too. I just don't know how this one's
• 52:37
  gonna play out, because like that's the word, like like the reason I
• 52:42
  like him. Everything you're saying makes sense, and I'm starting to maybe,
• 52:45
  like, man, I should bump down my Rebeccy ownership a little or something.
• 52:49
  But like if someone lands ten takedowns on this card or like like I
• 52:52
  think it's Rebeccy, or like Diego keeps getting up, all right, dump
• 52:55
  him, throw him back down on his face, like Diego gets up the
• 52:59
  longer the fight goes. I think I favor Rebeccy's cardio if he's putting on
• 53:02
  that pace and wrestling it's a little harder. But Diego getting up there in
• 53:07
  agent, I mean, fighting off takedowns and trying to get up is exhausting
• 53:10
  too. So any last thoughts on on outlier ten takedown performance or something crazy
• 53:16
  like that that puts up one point thirty you don't think that's very likely at
• 53:20
  all. No, I'd be really shocked to see him get really near ten
• 53:24
  takedowns. I feel like he's gonna be capped at like six takedowns in this
• 53:29
  one, I would think. And that's still I would definitely take the under
• 53:31
  on that. Yeah, But if I had to set it like a prop
• 53:35
  line on how many takedowns he's gonna get, I feel like two and a
• 53:38
  half would be the right number. I would Yeah, under them for sure
• 53:43
  makes gay money. Like, I'm not very contrarian on this card, So
• 53:47
  that's just how I see me getting different the the lineup where I can fit.
• 53:52
  Rebeccy, I'm fine putting Oberg. I'm fine putting this pain. I'm
• 53:54
  fine putting Ribaviks, I'm fine putting Waters, I'm fine. I'm fine going
• 53:59
  all the way down to freaking Borsch or Lewis. I'll save one hundred one
• 54:01
  thousand dollars, yeah, Lewis, just to get away from him. So
• 54:06
  that's that's just why it is, because I'm not contrarian on this card.
• 54:08
  If I still had my good in contrarianism, then maybe I'll get a little
• 54:12
  bit more. Rebeccy, I do think I had more than forty percent with
• 54:15
  my original builds, But now I just got to find ways to get different.
• 54:20
  And maybe that's how I do it, because he should be pretty damn
• 54:22
  owned on this card, and I don't know that I want leverage to the
• 54:24
  field. Yeah, no, that all makes a lot of sense. I'm
• 54:28
  that definitely is going to make me reconsider a little bit with my ownership.
• 54:31
  But at the same time, I'm fine with like twenty five to fifty five
• 54:37
  percent Rebeccy, to be honest, Like it's such a wide range with him,
• 54:38
  in my opinion, you care more about I mentioned a good amount in
• 54:42
  the Sleigh Planner. Sometimes even on the show, you care more about getting
• 54:45
  your McKinney, Ribovic's ownership, your Slavia clause Hooper ownership more intact than you
• 54:51
  want. And if you love your ownership and you're twenty percent or fifty percent,
• 54:54
  you'd roll with it. That's and that happens with me in a lot
• 54:58
  of these fights, for sure, So I like it. Three fights left
• 55:00
  Big Marley, another one right in the upper tier. We just talked ninety
• 55:04
  four hundred, Rebeccy one hundred, lest Carlos Olberg ninety three hundred comes in
• 55:08
  at minus two sixty five a lionso Manifield plus two to twenty five fights minus
• 55:14
  two seventy five to finish Alburg minus one thirty Menifield plus three to zho five.
• 55:20
  This is another fight. It's like I have both tagged as overweight.
• 55:23
  I'll be playing both guys in it. But I can make a case for
• 55:27
  this fight not optimal. Ever since Albert's debut against Kennedy, when he literally
• 55:31
  just went his hot balls of the walls for the first six minutes of the
• 55:36
  fight. Kennedy ate all the biggest shots, eventually crumpled them because Albert had
• 55:39
  nothing left. Alberg's fight is way smarter. He's like he is. He's
• 55:45
  buddy, a former kickboxer, big, strong and fast, powerful, etc.
• 55:51
  He just he's fine sitting at range, picking the shots, getting reads,
• 55:53
  and usually when he knocks out his opponent, it's one shot and it's
• 55:58
  absolutely the other opponent's dead. Like he hasn't scored more than one ten and
• 56:01
  he's had three first round knockouts. Is one oh seven enough? Maybe?
• 56:07
  Maybe not. I'll be playing Albert because I think he's dangerous. Minus one
• 56:10
  thirty inside the distance plus two to fifty in round one, but I don't
• 56:15
  know plus two to fifty in round one. Maybe I want to max his
• 56:17
  ownership right there. I don't think round two knockout is probably good enough.
• 56:22
  Round three probably good enough. You would need multiple knockdowns more so. Menifield's
• 56:27
  a live dog, I think he'll try and maybe try and wrestle in this
• 56:30
  one. You don't want to stand that range. Although he's get on the
• 56:34
  inside. Land a big shot and he'll be low owned if you just look
• 56:37
  at him. He's a grown ass man. He has power. I think
• 56:40
  Albert picks him apart at distance eventually knocks him out. I like Rebeccy for
• 56:45
  more, though I like this pain for less. I did like ju Set
• 56:47
  for less now he's gone. I like Ribovics more in a win like,
• 56:52
  yeah, I'll be playing some Alberg, but I see plenty of pass in
• 56:55
  my head where he knocks him out and he doesn't. He's not on the
• 56:59
  optimal. Yeah, this is a I have this as a five star,
• 57:04
  but I could see me changing it to a four star because they are primarily
• 57:08
  strikers, especially Olberg at ninety three hundred dollars, so he probably does need
• 57:13
  a first round knockout. I could see him getting there in a second round
• 57:15
  knockout, though, I mean just based on that Kennedy fight, like he
• 57:20
  scored fifty nine points in a second round loss, like yeah, but then
• 57:23
  he went to the Fabio Sharon and we haven't seen that allver once, like
• 57:28
  ever since that fight, Sean, what are you laying like sixty two significant
• 57:30
  strikes? Like the dude, he is a er. I think he's a
• 57:36
  much better striker. I think he does get a first round knockout or I
• 57:39
  don't know if I picked a first or second round knockout, but I do
• 57:43
  think he's got a decent chance at getting there with the second rounder, as
• 57:45
  long as there's a he knocks him down. Of course, it's not like
• 57:49
  a standing TKO that would the worst. Well they are always the worst.
• 57:53
  It's like just go down. Yeah, But I feel like he he's got
• 57:58
  one hundred and five point, like a likely one hundred and five point ceiling.
• 58:01
  So I'm I'm probably gonna get a lot of Oldberg, and more so
• 58:06
  because like my faate my Rebeccy lineup, I'm fine just putting Olberg in and
• 58:09
  saving one hundred dollars so I'm guessing I end up with more Oldberg than Rebeccy,
• 58:15
  even though he has less paths to one hundred points. And then on
• 58:19
  the Minifield side, like he's he's probably I don't know if he's got more
• 58:22
  one shot power, but he's just a freaking tank. He can knock this
• 58:25
  guy out with one shot, and if somebody is gonna wrestle, I would
• 58:29
  expect it to be Minifield, and Minifield could win a decision here and put
• 58:34
  up over ten X where Olberg I don't. I don't think he has ten
• 58:38
  X in a decision in his game plan. So I'm cool getting leveraged to
• 58:43
  both sides of this fight. But the more I think about it, I
• 58:45
  probably will move this down to a four star, because a five star for
• 58:49
  me is like I want it in seventy five percent or more of my lineups,
• 58:53
  and I don't know that I'm gonna I probably won't get there on this
• 58:55
  one. I'm guessing I'm a round field on Minifield and then get maybe five
• 58:59
  ten percent and leverage on Oberg. So yeah, I think I tucked myself
• 59:02
  into lowering it to a four star, but still a top five fight.
• 59:07
  On the card for me to target, I'm gonna be pretty heavy on it.
• 59:08
  Yeah, I love it. It makes everything you said we're kind of
• 59:12
  aligned in a lot of It makes total sense to me and I'm good.
• 59:15
  Also the Rebeccy. If you go down from Rebeccy, you go Alberg.
• 59:19
  If that eliminates like thirty dukes down to fifteen or something, I think that
• 59:22
  would be the sharp play to do that. Hope Albert does outscore him.
• 59:27
  Two fights left, two very very fun fights Comaine event Time Hometown Guy with
• 59:32
  Keen Buckley taking on neural Sin Rosie Boyev minus one thirty five Buckley plus one
• 59:37
  fifteen Rosie Boyev minus two to eighty for this fight to finish Buckley minus or
• 59:43
  Buckley plus one twenty five inside the distance Rosie Boyev plus one seventy five.
• 59:49
  I also wanted to mention ownership in this fight because it's clear as day where
• 59:52
  the game theory leverage is. We got Buckley at twenty one percent, Rosie
• 59:58
  Boyev at thirty eight percent. Yeah, I mean it's pretty clear. The
• 1:00:01
  minus one thirty five favorites who's plus one twenty five inside the distance and a
• 1:00:07
  fight minus too eighty to finish is the leverage side against the dog that's thirty
• 1:00:10
  eight percent. I definitely see this the ownership staying somewhere around there Buckley.
• 1:00:15
  If I prefer GPP game theory play. If I played one of them in
• 1:00:20
  cash, it's obviously Rosie Boye over Buckley. I still will be playing.
• 1:00:24
  I still think there's such a thing as good chalk in MMA. It's just
• 1:00:28
  how you play the chalk. Hooper is gonna get ownership, Rozzie boy is
• 1:00:30
  gonna get ownership, McKinney's gonna get some I'll be playing all of them in
• 1:00:35
  Rosie boy Of lineups. Maybe that's where I'll play at Hadley. Maybe that's
• 1:00:38
  where I'll play a Veronica Hardy, etc. If I'm playing Buckley, then
• 1:00:44
  I don't need to play at Veronica Hardy, I don't need to play at
• 1:00:46
  Jay Cadley. So I'll be playing both sides. I'll probably be more overweight
• 1:00:51
  to Buckley at ownership in Rosie BOYD lineups. I'll make sure I'm getting different
• 1:00:54
  in some way leaving salary. I mean, at thirty eight percent for twenty
• 1:01:00
  one percent Buckley, though I don't care what my pick is, which actually
• 1:01:04
  is Roozy Boy of Buckley is the clear game theory played my opinion, So
• 1:01:07
  yeah, I'll leave it at that, I guess. I will say though,
• 1:01:10
  I think the Buckley hype after Luk fight is a little too wide for
• 1:01:15
  this line. Like, I mean, man, Luk just might be not
• 1:01:19
  gone, not over the hill toast, but he ain't the same a sense
• 1:01:22
  Luk as once. So yeah, Rosey Boy is a pick, but I'll
• 1:01:27
  probably have more Buckley GPPs. Oh shit, yeah, I'm the opposite.
• 1:01:34
  I actually think I might fade Buckley on this card, Like you you got
• 1:01:37
  to go back ten fights for Buckley before he's made the optimal lineup on DraftKings
• 1:01:43
  he can't wrestling. Was that the Derive fight or what that was? Jordan
• 1:01:47
  Wright like, oh wow, right, like anybody should be on Yeah,
• 1:01:52
  And then I think before that he was a big underdog where he got that
• 1:01:54
  spinning kickover imp Kasangana. I think those are the only two times he's made
• 1:02:00
  the optimal lineup in like a twelve fight UFC career. The best thing about
• 1:02:06
  Buckley is his power, and if he gets a first round knockout, he's
• 1:02:09
  probably gonna be on the optimal lineup. He is live for a first round
• 1:02:13
  knockout, but I favor Ruzaboyev in this one. There's way more unknowns about
• 1:02:19
  rouse Boyev because he's got like a million fights but only like seven of them
• 1:02:22
  or have film. But I just think he might be the goods. I
• 1:02:27
  think he's probably our better wrestler here. He's for sure gonna be our more
• 1:02:30
  dangerous submission artist, and I think he's got just as much knockout power as
• 1:02:34
  Buckley. I also think he could be our our minute winner on the feet
• 1:02:37
  or the ground here. So Rouseaboyev is my favorite underdog from a winning perspective,
• 1:02:45
  but I also feel like he might be my highest own underdog because I
• 1:02:47
  think he's gonna get a finish in this fight, and it could be on
• 1:02:50
  the feet and it could be on the ground. But any rouse Boyev win
• 1:02:53
  probably scores more than ten X. And I also think he's got a really
• 1:02:57
  good chance at one hundred points at seventy five hundred and Buckley, if he's
• 1:03:01
  not getting a first round knockout, I just don't see him making the optimal
• 1:03:05
  lineup. And if these guys are gonna fight a hundred times, I feel
• 1:03:07
  like Rusboyev averages more in his wins than Buckley averages in his So definitely trying
• 1:03:14
  to save that twelve hundred dollars. I'm gonna be overweight to Rouse Boyev and
• 1:03:19
  I might x out Buckley. To be honest with you, just hope he
• 1:03:21
  doesn't land that big shot in the first time. It makes sense. You
• 1:03:23
  do have definitely some balls, especially in his ownership, but it makes some
• 1:03:28
  sense. Yeah, I'll probably again in cash games if I'm playing one of
• 1:03:31
  these two. It is definitely Rosie Boye of over Buckley. Still by far.
• 1:03:36
  It's a really tough cast week, Like I mean, under one and
• 1:03:38
  a half plus one fifteen. Buckley's plus one twenty five and finished. He's
• 1:03:43
  plus two eighty five in round one. That means there's very live that Buckley
• 1:03:46
  goes out there starches them. In round one. Rouzy Boye puts up eight
• 1:03:50
  DK points. So I'm not saying I love like I don't know. I
• 1:03:53
  have no clue what I'm doing for cash at all. Just in GPPs at
• 1:03:57
  thirty eight percent and twenty one percent, it's so much easier get more overweight
• 1:04:00
  on the twenty one percent, I'll be beat. I'll be more chocolate and
• 1:04:04
  Buckley lineups and Rosy boy Of lineups. I'll look to get a little different
• 1:04:09
  like both for sure, though good fight. I am picking Rouzy Boy with
• 1:04:12
  you as well. I just at worse. I think this is a minus
• 1:04:15
  one ten coin flip. Yeah, maybe live Bett Buckley. Any thoughts on
• 1:04:19
  that? Like Cardio wise, like Rusie Boye, I'm not sold that he
• 1:04:24
  has Cardio is also cutting down, so the way cuts tough. We've seen
• 1:04:29
  Buckley go three. Any thoughts I'll be looking. I watched a lot of
• 1:04:31
  these fights. I think betting mm A live is the biggest edge out there,
• 1:04:35
  and betting now all sports, so I personally will be looking for a
• 1:04:41
  Bucky live I think spot But any thoughts there, No, I already bet
• 1:04:45
  Rosy Boye, so I'm not gonna be Buckley dead at all. Sounds good
• 1:04:50
  last fight on the car main event, but be Sterrek lewis taking on Rodrigo
• 1:04:55
  Nesonento minus one fifty five. Lewis plus one thirty five men. This fight
• 1:05:00
  is minus one thousand to finish. Derek Lewis minus one forty five Massamento plus
• 1:05:05
  one fifty five. So I guess I'll just say this literally fight is kind
• 1:05:10
  of like that last fight. My pick is Derrek Lewis by first round knockout,
• 1:05:15
  my pick was Rouzy Boyev. But I think the game theory GVP play
• 1:05:19
  is nasimento. Derek Lewis will probably be about fifty percent own. I think
• 1:05:24
  Nasonmental will be somewhere around. Let's go thirty four percent owned at that ownership
• 1:05:29
  and the six hundred dollars savings, Like, it's just nowsmento for me if
• 1:05:33
  you don't know anything about MMA, with some of the best DFS players don't
• 1:05:39
  know about anything in their sport because they just look at numbers analytics, like
• 1:05:43
  MMA is a duplicate sport, so not duping with one hundred and fifteen people
• 1:05:46
  when they win, et cetera. Malsonmento for one point five or like he's
• 1:05:51
  not half the ownership but one point five less owned in a plus one thirty
• 1:05:57
  five with six hundred savings with the ground advantage. Like yeah, I don't
• 1:06:01
  know if I'm going to be more overweight on Acemento because I'm picking Lewis my
• 1:06:05
  first round knockouts, but I think he is the right game theory play and
• 1:06:10
  I can be more chalky in those lineups. I can leave money easier.
• 1:06:14
  I think Derek Lewis gets a lot of steam, not just for minus one
• 1:06:16
  fifty five and is inside the distance prop, but because that mid tier is
• 1:06:19
  so bad. Like imagine if Tabitha Ricci and Ronicka Hardy weren't in there and
• 1:06:25
  we had like another minus three hundred inside the distance props, then the mid
• 1:06:29
  tier is so much better. So the odds or the ownership is more spread
• 1:06:32
  out. With that being so bad, you need to play someone in the
• 1:06:36
  mid tier. Oh who do we play? Main event Derek Lewis so just
• 1:06:40
  naturally people are gravitating to him because of the nature of the card. Again,
• 1:06:45
  I think it's a good play. He has upside. Now, last
• 1:06:47
  thing I will say, I think this fight could go second round, third
• 1:06:51
  round. Lewis gets a knockout. Scores eighty eight. Eighty eight might not
• 1:06:56
  be enough at all. That ownership, I will have some some fight fades
• 1:07:00
  in the main events, and I think that's a way you can sell those
• 1:07:03
  ship or ship with a lot less people, a lot of talking. Right
• 1:07:08
  there. That's enough for me, though, how do you see it?
• 1:07:10
  I agree, I'm picking Lewis first round knockout. That's why I like him
• 1:07:14
  as my preferred play. I probably get close to fifty percent Lewis, but
• 1:07:18
  that's a round field weight. I just feel like I'm gonna be around field
• 1:07:20
  weight on both sides of this fight. And you made the case for this
• 1:07:25
  fight not being on the optimal lineup. N Somento wins the first round,
• 1:07:29
  even in the second round Lewis knockout, he probably doesn't make it. So
• 1:07:34
  I mean first round knockout or bust almost for Lewis, because if these guys
• 1:07:41
  are just striking for a round and then Lewis gets a second round knockout,
• 1:07:45
  even if he wins the first round, striking wise, he's not gonna land
• 1:07:46
  more than like ten strikes in that round. So he's got to get that
• 1:07:50
  first round knockout. But I just think he gets it. I just don't
• 1:07:56
  think Nasalmento is good enough of a striker. I also don't think he's a
• 1:07:59
  good and of a wrestler to feel confident in him getting the takedowns. If
• 1:08:03
  he does get one takedown, he probably holds it the rest of the round
• 1:08:06
  or maybe even gets a finish. But I'll still have at least thirty percent,
• 1:08:11
  not some mental I'll get a bunch there. But I do think like
• 1:08:14
  single entry avoiding this fight does make a little bit of sense, and just
• 1:08:17
  hoping that not some mental wins that first round and then loses later on in
• 1:08:20
  the fight. Maybe that's my way to get different with a single entry.
• 1:08:25
  But I'm gonna have a lot of Lewis at least fifty percent, I think,
• 1:08:28
  because I think he's gonna get a first round knockout, and I also
• 1:08:30
  think he's super live for that sixty second bonus in this one. It's like
• 1:08:34
  the Spain first, Lewis second, McKinny third. Those are like the only
• 1:08:41
  ones I feel like are really super live for that sixty seconds. Hooper as
• 1:08:45
  well Alberg. If Alberg, if he lands some big head kickers, you're
• 1:08:48
  not gonna throw many strikes. But you know he can debt him. Really,
• 1:08:51
  I wish he would, man, I wish you would come out like
• 1:08:54
  he did in that Kennedy fight. Uh. But yeah, I just feel
• 1:08:57
  like Lewis is a guy I feel I have a pretty good track record against
• 1:09:00
  I mean and on I usually pick against him and he usually loses. But
• 1:09:06
  he got dominated by Almeida. He's still stuffed more takedowns than now madea landed
• 1:09:12
  and if you're stuff and takedowns against Nasimento, I don't think he's gonna keep
• 1:09:15
  coming with them like al Mada would. And I think aud was getting beat
• 1:09:17
  by Alan Badeaux in the first round and a couple of years ago, Like,
• 1:09:21
  dude, that fight was one of the worst. Like it feels too
• 1:09:26
  obvious with Derek Lewis. Last thing I will mention though, like I'm surprised
• 1:09:30
  to see this line still hovering around minus one fifty five, like I expected
• 1:09:34
  it to get to minus one eighty, Like I don't know the line was,
• 1:09:41
  and that always scares me when I capped it at a larger number,
• 1:09:45
  especially in the main event, when you know this fight's taking plenty of money.
• 1:09:48
  Dere Derek Lewis's everyone's darling, like no one wants to bet Rodrigo Nasimento.
• 1:09:55
  But the line's not moving much, which also scares me. So I'm
• 1:09:58
  just talking out loud. Yeah, I kept his ceiling at minus one eighty
• 1:10:02
  five, so I and I do think if it moves, it moves more
• 1:10:05
  into his favor. But just another great fight, five star fight for me.
• 1:10:11
  It'll be in seventy five to eighty percent of my lineup, So I
• 1:10:15
  would imagine, and I just I'm hoping almost that Lewis gets that sixty second
• 1:10:20
  knockout, because if that happens and I got him in fifty five percent of
• 1:10:25
  my lineups, I'd be feeling pretty good. As long as as long as
• 1:10:28
  I'm not dead already. Yeah, as long as Ronick and Hardy or Jay
• 1:10:30
  j Older don't break this sleigh in after fight one, I'll be I won't
• 1:10:34
  even watch the card if that happens. Yeah, it'll be a ooo boo.
• 1:10:41
  That's all twelve fights. Good stopping Marley. Like always, we appreciate
• 1:10:45
  little nas in here. Ben's in here, great for Michael Peterson said,
• 1:10:47
  Hi to plenty of people. Always appreciate you guys watching live. We know
• 1:10:51
  most of you watch on playback. We appreciate you guys just as much as
• 1:10:55
  well. Any comments you guys have helps us out a ton below Like bun
• 1:11:00
  subscribe button again, if you want to join us at the Nation, it's
• 1:11:02
  one of your last chances to get in for our lowest price. Wednesday prices
• 1:11:06
  start going up our one year anniversary on that PGA show. We're getting it
• 1:11:11
  away sway. We're giving away tickets. We're giving away some money. Founding
• 1:11:15
  family Member. If you've been with us from the beginning, actually check your
• 1:11:18
  email. I did see an email just went out for the PGA for Founding
• 1:11:21
  family Members. Merchants in there. Money's in there as well. We've given
• 1:11:26
  out fifteen thousand dollars so far in cash, not even one year in awesome
• 1:11:31
  stuff by the team. Hoop and Tambo have created a very awesome atmosphere over
• 1:11:36
  here, you guys. The members in the discord keeps growing by the day
• 1:11:41
  as well. Awesome awesome stuff, awesome conversations, people always helping each other
• 1:11:45
  out. See so many screenshots in there. I'm ready to make some money
• 1:11:49
  this week, Big Marley. Plenty of sports to do it at. Let's
• 1:11:53
  talk nex Friday with more money in our pocket than we had this Friday.
• 1:11:56
  Final thoughts to the people now man, good luck to you and that qualifier.
• 1:12:00
  Good Luck to the rest of shiping Nation who's in there as well.
• 1:12:03
  Good luck to everybody listening. Let's ship it. Let's ship it baby.
• 1:12:06
  Good luck everybody, stay safe, Enjoy your weekend from Big Marley on titled Town