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US Consumer Sentiment Drops , Gold Breaks Through $3,000 · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 2: Alex Steal here alongside Paul sw We need this Bloomberg
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  Speaker 2: Intelligence Radio and everybody. We made it to Friday, but
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  Speaker 2: not to disappoint the headlines keep coming that you mish
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  Speaker 2: data coming out as paulishes talking about long term inflation
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  Speaker 2: expectations hitting a thirty two year high.
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  Speaker 3: You're looking at one.
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  Speaker 2: Year inflation expectations jumping a four point nine percent. Joining
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  Speaker 2: us now as Joanshue, University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Director,
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  Speaker 2: joining us, Joanne, what is behind the rise in inflation expectations?
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  Speaker 4: Very clear? Consumers are really worried about the impact of
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  Speaker 4: these policy changes, particularly these tariffs that are changing on
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  Speaker 4: a daily basis, kind of policy going in circles. Consumers
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  Speaker 4: are really worried this is going to pass through to
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  Speaker 4: the prices that they see, and they're concern this is
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  Speaker 4: going to be something that's going to affect not just
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  Speaker 4: the short term, but the long run as well.
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  Speaker 5: So, Juane, give us a CeNSE here, I mean the
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  Speaker 5: University of Michigan sentiment. The headline number came in at
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  Speaker 5: fifty seven point nine, consensus was sixty three. Prior period
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  Speaker 5: was sixty four point seven. Give us a sense of
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  Speaker 5: how rare is a rate of change like we're seeing
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  Speaker 5: here this month. How rare or how common is that?
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  Speaker 4: So what we saw this month was an eleven percent
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  Speaker 4: drop that in itself may not be notable, but what
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  Speaker 4: is criticals that it follows two other months, two previous
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  Speaker 4: months of pretty strong declines. We're now down twenty two
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  Speaker 4: percent from the very beginning of the year. That is
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  Speaker 4: a pretty long sustained drop and it reverses six months
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  Speaker 4: of increases that we were seeing at the end of
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  Speaker 4: twenty twenty four. So consumers are really concerned that we
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  Speaker 4: are headed for a downturn. We saw deteriorating views of
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  Speaker 4: about unemployment, about stock markets, about personal finances.
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  Speaker 3: Across the board.
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  Speaker 4: Consumers are seeing a lot of downside of risks in
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  Speaker 4: the years ahead.
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  Speaker 2: Joanne, Before we let you go, how split is it
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  Speaker 2: among party lines?
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  Speaker 4: What we saw was a decline and sentiment across Republicans, Independence,
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  Speaker 4: and Democrats. This is not something that's being driven only
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  Speaker 4: by people who are not fans of Trump. Across all
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  Speaker 4: three political groups. We saw declines and sentiment.
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  Speaker 3: All right, Jient, Thanks Lott.
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  Speaker 2: We really appreciate Joannshoue, University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
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  Speaker 2: Director love getting you on on This is so so important.
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• 3:01
  Speaker 6: Is the PGA Tour.
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  Speaker 5: Is it Punt de Vidra Beach, Florida for the Players
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  Speaker 5: Championship this week? A lot of folks call it the
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  Speaker 5: fifth Major. I believe our next guest may also be
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  Speaker 5: in Punt de Vidra and I'm going to put the
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  Speaker 5: two together and assume there's a Morgan Stanley event down there.
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  Speaker 5: Kathy and TWISLM, Managing Director, Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management
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  Speaker 5: and joints us here. Kathy, what are the conversations you're
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  Speaker 5: having with your clients over the last couple of months.
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  Speaker 5: I mean two months ago, socker market was all time high.
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  Speaker 5: Everybody's feeling good. A little bit different here today.
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  Speaker 7: Absolutely, the conversations have definitely been more challenging. There's a
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  Speaker 7: lot of anxiety and fear about the markets. But part
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  Speaker 7: of our job is to walk them through it and
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  Speaker 7: talk them through it and also talk about positioning and
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  Speaker 7: maybe taking advantage of some of the market volatility to
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  Speaker 7: reposition what we have in order to get on board
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  Speaker 7: for the next phase of the market.
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  Speaker 3: What is the next phase of the market?
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  Speaker 8: Yeah, well, the.
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  Speaker 7: Next phase of the market is basically trying to think
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  Speaker 7: about who the new winners are, where the new opportunities
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  Speaker 7: will be going forward. Also what type of you know,
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  Speaker 7: whether it's on the equity side, you know, corporations, companies
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  Speaker 7: that we're investing in different cap sizes, you know, large companies,
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  Speaker 7: small companies, and mid companies if they're value or growth.
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  Speaker 7: We like the mid growth area of the market. We
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  Speaker 7: like the large value area of the market. We like
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  Speaker 7: what we call it que GARB, which is quality growth
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  Speaker 7: at a reasonable price. And we also like we're going
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  Speaker 7: to start bringing in some of the duration a little
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  Speaker 7: bit more based on where we are with the rates.
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  Speaker 5: Kathy's I mean, we've just got that University of Michigan
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  Speaker 5: data came out today and obviously the sentiment much lower
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  Speaker 5: than forecast, inflation expectations much higher than consensus forecasts. Do
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  Speaker 5: you get that sense when you talk to your Morgan
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  Speaker 5: Stanley private wealth clients.
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  Speaker 7: Yeah, I think this is not going to be an
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  Speaker 7: easy year ahead. I think there'll be a lot of
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  Speaker 7: bumps and volatility and a lot of sideways trading. So
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  Speaker 7: it's more about understanding where are managing expectations and looking
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  Speaker 7: just for the opportunities to make those shifts. Clients are
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  Speaker 7: definitely more worried, you know, this year, especially in the
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  Speaker 7: last couple of weeks. I've gotten a lot of phone calls.
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  Speaker 7: We've had a lot of conversations, and we are just
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  Speaker 7: for my clients personally. We're walking them through the process
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  Speaker 7: and the markets and reminding them of all the times
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  Speaker 7: we've had these kind of downturns and that they're very normal.
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  Speaker 7: It's very normal to have a ten percent you know,
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  Speaker 7: drop in the market every twelve.
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  Speaker 3: Months, but the whippy headlines are not normal.
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  Speaker 2: So how do you then filter the noise from the reality.
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  Speaker 7: Yeah, again, it's it's looking at the metrics and the numbers.
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  Speaker 7: You know, there's two different sides to the equation. There's
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  Speaker 7: the pure quantitative side, the numbers and statistics and our
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  Speaker 7: history and what we can think, you know, sort of
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  Speaker 7: look forward to with knowing those numbers. And then there's
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  Speaker 7: the qualitative side, the emotions and the challenges. So part
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  Speaker 7: of our job is to take the qualitative side out
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  Speaker 7: of it, take the emotions out of this and look
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  Speaker 7: at it purely from where are the opportunities and how
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  Speaker 7: can we keep our clients invested in the markets, Because
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  Speaker 7: if you take your money out, you have the potential
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  Speaker 7: to pay cap gain taxes. You also have the potential
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  Speaker 7: to not know when the right time is to get
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  Speaker 7: back in. So if you're positioned well and you're invested
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  Speaker 7: in the right companies, that will turn around eventually. And
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  Speaker 7: it's a patience game.
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  Speaker 5: How does fixed income fixing fit into the discussions these days?
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  Speaker 5: You're having kathy with your clients because they could sid
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  Speaker 5: it a to your treasure. You can get about four
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  Speaker 5: percent if you want to take creditists, they can get
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  Speaker 5: a little bit more than that, and maybe in an
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  Speaker 5: inviolable market that's not the worst thing. So how do
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  Speaker 5: you talk about fixed income?
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  Speaker 6: Yeah?
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  Speaker 7: Absolutely, So what we do is when we're talking about
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  Speaker 7: fixed income, I've got an allocation for most of my
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  Speaker 7: clients in municipal bonds in their taxable accounts and corporate
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  Speaker 7: bonds in their retirement accounts. And they know that it's
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  Speaker 7: an asset class that is typically non correlated to the
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  Speaker 7: equity market. When we have volatility in the market, this
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  Speaker 7: will be what keeps them up.
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  Speaker 8: You know.
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  Speaker 7: It's like their portfolio up and buffered and a little
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  Speaker 7: bit more on the conservative or safer side. And they're
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  Speaker 7: getting in the same time, tax free income. And if
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  Speaker 7: you're getting yields that are tax free, the taxicquipment meals
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  Speaker 7: are higher than the four percent that you're talking about
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  Speaker 7: with the treasuries.
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  Speaker 2: What about in the corporate credit market. So there's a
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  Speaker 2: lot been made about how equities are reflecting that recession sentiment,
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  Speaker 2: but the high yield market has not been, but we
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  Speaker 2: just started to see kind of spreads widening a little bit.
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  Speaker 3: But investment grade still seems a little protected.
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  Speaker 7: What do you think, Yeah, I've been giving my clients
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  Speaker 7: an investment grade. I think it's just smarter. At this point,
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  Speaker 7: you're not really getting paid the difference that you would
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  Speaker 7: need to get paid to go for the high yields.
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  Speaker 7: And I come from a time when we had a
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  Speaker 7: lot of corporate de folds back in the eighties, so
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  Speaker 7: I am very reminiscent of that, and I want to
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  Speaker 7: stay away from any risk in my client's portfolios. They've
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  Speaker 7: won the game. There's no need to take more risk
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  Speaker 7: in something that's supposed to be a little bit more safer. Conservative.
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  Speaker 5: That said, though, I hear a lot of registered investment advisors,
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  Speaker 5: Kathy that talk about alternative investments as something their clients
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  Speaker 5: really want allocation to it, and it's not just five
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  Speaker 5: or ten percent, it can be twenty thirty percent. What
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  Speaker 5: kind of the discussions you have with your clients about
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  Speaker 5: alternative investments.
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  Speaker 7: Yeah, we've been using alternative investment investments in our client's
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  Speaker 7: portfolios as long as it's appropriate for them and they
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  Speaker 7: qualify for it. But it's very interesting because that again
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  Speaker 7: is non correlated. We do expect, for example, on the
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  Speaker 7: credit side, you're talking about fixed income. On the credit side,
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  Speaker 7: in alternatives, you can get higher yields, and some of
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  Speaker 7: those can have some tax advantages to them if they
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  Speaker 7: are involved in sort of you know, read or something
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  Speaker 7: along those lines. So al terms, that are a great
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  Speaker 7: way to get the diversification. Typically, I am looking to
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  Speaker 7: get my clients invested twenty percent on average in alts,
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  Speaker 7: depending on the size of their personal portfolios. And also
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  Speaker 7: we're doing it over time. We're not doing all usually
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  Speaker 7: in like one fell swoop, although now Evergreens, I'm sure
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  Speaker 7: you guys are familiar with the evergreens, where if they
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  Speaker 7: have more liquidity, they're more aligned with an investor's time
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  Speaker 7: frame and goals, and so you can get more invested
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  Speaker 7: without capital calls that way, which is really a nice
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  Speaker 7: way to get clients invested in this part of the market.
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  Speaker 3: All right, Kathy, thanks a lot. We really appreciated.
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  Speaker 2: Kathy and Whistle, Managing director at Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management.
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: Enjoy that weather in Florida.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
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• 9:42
  Speaker 2: Okay, let's go back up to the colder weather in Canada.
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: Jessin Trudeau officially out Markcarney officially in this is a
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: different change now for the Canadian government. Creates an opening
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: for that government to reset its relationship with the US
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: and President Donald Trump.
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  Speaker 3: But will it.
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: Brian Platt, Bloomberg d and Government reporter joins us. Now, Brian, first,
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: before we get to the inner workings, do we even
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: know what a Carneie Trump relationship is before Carney took
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: the helm.
• 10:11
  Speaker 8: No, we have not had a chance to put this
• 10:13
  Speaker 8: question to Carne yet. I mean, Mark Carney really has
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  Speaker 8: not done very much media. We're expecting a news conference
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  Speaker 8: this afternoon, and I suspect he will be asked that
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  Speaker 8: very question. So you know, whether they have any pre
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  Speaker 8: existing relationship at all is one of the biggest questions
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  Speaker 8: that I have right now. But I do think in general,
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  Speaker 8: Carney is approaching this as a chance to ideally reset
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  Speaker 8: the relationship that had become very tense and very even
• 10:42
  Speaker 8: hostile between President Trump and Prime Minister Trudeau.
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  Speaker 5: Is there a sense that I mean, seeing this thing
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  Speaker 5: seems to go one of two ways. Either you kind
• 10:52
  Speaker 5: of accept to a very large extent, the terms that
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  Speaker 5: President Trump is offering as a release to tariff's or
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  Speaker 5: you fight it, as it appears that Canada had been
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  Speaker 5: doing perhaps more aggrestively than than anybody else out there.
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  Speaker 5: Do we have any sense how mister Karney wants to
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  Speaker 5: move that forward.
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  Speaker 8: Well, he has said already he's not taking off Canada's
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  Speaker 8: retaliatory tariffs until the US fully commits to you know,
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  Speaker 8: a free, free and fair trade relationship. So that probably
• 11:23
  Speaker 8: means until the US lifts all the tariffs that it
• 11:26
  Speaker 8: is put on Canada. Because you know, I I was
• 11:28
  Speaker 8: dealing aluminum just recently, and there were other tariffs in
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  Speaker 8: place from earlier March. So at the moment Carney has
• 11:37
  Speaker 8: promised to keep Canada's retaliation in place. I will also
• 11:40
  Speaker 8: say he's constrained by public opinion here. Canadian public opinion
• 11:43
  Speaker 8: is demanding retaliation and in fact probably wants even harsher retaliation.
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  Speaker 8: So I will be very surprised if Carney softens too
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  Speaker 8: much on this. But you know, if you can get
• 11:54
  Speaker 8: into a negotiation here, maybe there's room to adjust how
• 11:57
  Speaker 8: Canada is responding.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, when I was down and who's in Texas at
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  Speaker 2: Sarah Week, which is in a global energy conference. When
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  Speaker 2: I was speaking off the record, people are like Canadians
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  Speaker 2: are just mad, like full on mad. When we take
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  Speaker 2: a look at the ability of the government in and
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  Speaker 2: of itself to respond, there are many territories that have
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  Speaker 2: free They all have free reign. The provinces can do
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  Speaker 2: what they want. We saw that with Ontario. So what's
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  Speaker 2: the coordination between say Carnee and the individual regions.
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  Speaker 8: To some extent, provinces have free rein I mean this
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  Speaker 8: is a you know, Canada's of federation, just like the
• 12:34
  Speaker 8: US is where states have certain powers in general on
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  Speaker 8: international trade, it's the federal government and so most of
• 12:41
  Speaker 8: the tools that you retaliate on our federal tools. The
• 12:44
  Speaker 8: provinces have certain things that they can control. In Ontario's case,
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  Speaker 8: it was the electricity system. So the province of Ontario
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  Speaker 8: had briefly put in an export tax essentially on its
• 12:55
  Speaker 8: electricity trade with the US. But most when you talk
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  Speaker 8: about count tariffs and things like that, that's all in
• 13:01
  Speaker 8: the federal government. Jurisdiction. The provinces are just looking at
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  Speaker 8: some of the other things they can do. One of
• 13:06
  Speaker 8: the biggest things we've seen is provinces control their own
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  Speaker 8: liquor distribution systems, and so quite a few provinces have
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  Speaker 8: taken all American made liquor off the shelves until the
• 13:15
  Speaker 8: US lifts its tariff. So you do see some smaller,
• 13:18
  Speaker 8: sort of more targeted responses like that from the provincial level.
• 13:22
  Speaker 5: Brian, can you educate us as to when an election
• 13:25
  Speaker 5: may happen in Canada?
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  Speaker 8: The most likely scenario is very soon. I think the
• 13:33
  Speaker 8: end of next week is what I'm looking at, and
• 13:36
  Speaker 8: that's sort of the conventional wisdom right now. So Mark
• 13:38
  Speaker 8: Karney will be sworn in today. I believe we've reported
• 13:41
  Speaker 8: he's about to go on a short europe trip to
• 13:43
  Speaker 8: France in England, which I will kind of be a
• 13:46
  Speaker 8: Monday Tuesday thing, I think, And then I suspect by
• 13:49
  Speaker 8: the end of the week, maybe even on the weekend,
• 13:51
  Speaker 8: he calls a staff election, and so in that case,
• 13:53
  Speaker 8: you're looking at an election date of late April or
• 13:57
  Speaker 8: early May.
• 13:58
  Speaker 5: And what are the polls showing now.
• 14:00
  Speaker 8: Well, they're changing. It's fascinating. The Conservatives in Canada under
• 14:05
  Speaker 8: Pierre Pauliev looked like they were cruising to a majority government.
• 14:08
  Speaker 8: They were up by twenty five points for most of
• 14:11
  Speaker 8: last year. It's we're now entering a dead heat, I mean,
• 14:14
  Speaker 8: and it's essentially because of Donald Trump's threats. Trudeau's resignation
• 14:17
  Speaker 8: has led to that as well in Carney's ascent to
• 14:20
  Speaker 8: the leadership. All right, but it's Trump's tariffs.
• 14:23
  Speaker 5: Yep, very good, Brian, Thank you so much for reporting.
• 14:25
  Speaker 5: We really appreciated Brian Platt, government reporter Bloomberg News. He's
• 14:29
  Speaker 5: in Ottawa. Talk about boots on the ground, folks. Get
• 14:32
  Speaker 5: that fantastic reporting. We'll stay on top of that election
• 14:36
  Speaker 5: that may come as soon as a week or two.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and Android
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• 14:50
  Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: One of the headlines today is that Gold broke three
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: thousand dollars an ounce.
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: I remember covering Gold when it wasn't even one thousand
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: dollars and outs.
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: So this is like for US gold nerds and gold bugs,
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: this is like a moment of balloons and stuff, and
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: that question becomes like how long can this last? Mike mcloon,
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence and your commodity strategist who was also covering
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: gold before it was even one thousand dollars nouns. Hey, Mike,
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: if I had told you twenty years ago gold will
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: be at three thousand, what kind of economy would that
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: have represented?
• 15:23
  Speaker 9: Yeah, it'd be there's significant inflation or severe deflation. I
• 15:28
  Speaker 9: think the key reason gold's rallying now is because it's
• 15:31
  Speaker 9: anticipating the deflation, significant potential deflation if US risks as
• 15:37
  Speaker 9: its most noted stock market continues to can either say
• 15:40
  Speaker 9: go down or mean revert because it went up so
• 15:42
  Speaker 9: much the last few years.
• 15:44
  Speaker 6: I think that's what's happening now.
• 15:45
  Speaker 9: The gold market's anticipating stock market going down. Okay, that
• 15:49
  Speaker 9: was been the best place to be along with cryptos
• 15:52
  Speaker 9: for decades now, along with high bond yields, and now
• 15:55
  Speaker 9: gold's starting to understand that, oh that rally.
• 15:58
  Speaker 6: Might be over.
• 15:59
  Speaker 9: And you're seeing that flows ETFs had outflows of four
• 16:02
  Speaker 9: years in a row, and they're really kicking in this year,
• 16:04
  Speaker 9: they're up about four percent, which would be the most
• 16:06
  Speaker 9: since twenty twenty.
• 16:08
  Speaker 5: And Alice, when I first met Mike years ago, when
• 16:10
  Speaker 5: we were first talking about him coming to Bloomberg, and
• 16:12
  Speaker 5: he said, Hey, Mike, put your commodities call, buy gold,
• 16:15
  Speaker 5: sell everything else.
• 16:16
  Speaker 6: I mean he's pretty.
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: Much always been right on that one. Already care at
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: that point, what's that?
• 16:21
  Speaker 5: No?
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: Okay, so that's all maybe already?
• 16:24
  Speaker 5: Yeah. So hey, Mike, how do you get a senseor
• 16:26
  Speaker 5: how of gold traders? I'm not sure if people trade
• 16:30
  Speaker 5: gold or they investing goal, but how did they feel
• 16:32
  Speaker 5: about valuation?
• 16:33
  Speaker 8: Like at some point people.
• 16:34
  Speaker 6: Say, oh, this this stock.
• 16:35
  Speaker 5: Has just gotten too far ahead of itself. Do we
• 16:37
  Speaker 5: ever say that about a commodity like gold?
• 16:40
  Speaker 9: Well I, Paul, I love how you go there, because
• 16:42
  Speaker 9: we know you're an equity person in valuations in your
• 16:45
  Speaker 9: brain in commodities. The main lesson you learn commodities is
• 16:49
  Speaker 9: they go down because they went up. That's why Crudell's
• 16:51
  Speaker 9: at sixty five.
• 16:51
  Speaker 6: Dollars a barrow. It went out too much. The big
• 16:54
  Speaker 6: difference is gold. The big difference is gold.
• 16:56
  Speaker 9: The key thing is, oftentimes you're trying to find a
• 16:58
  Speaker 9: cost of production is evaluation. We usually goes to what's happening.
• 17:02
  Speaker 9: What's different with gold. It's the only commodity that really
• 17:04
  Speaker 9: goes up over time continuously, partly because the supply can
• 17:08
  Speaker 9: only crease on average two percent forever, and it's harder
• 17:11
  Speaker 9: and harder to produce, and it's monetary value.
• 17:14
  Speaker 6: So that's what's the significance of gold.
• 17:16
  Speaker 9: Gold is up about sixty five percent since February of
• 17:19
  Speaker 9: twenty and twenty that's when the announcement between of the
• 17:22
  Speaker 9: unlimited French rate friendship between President and zeeing President Putin,
• 17:26
  Speaker 9: and it's continuing now. The key thing it's looking forward
• 17:29
  Speaker 9: is we're seeing deflationary forces in China potentially kicking over
• 17:32
  Speaker 9: in this country.
• 17:33
  Speaker 6: And I'm really worry now.
• 17:34
  Speaker 9: I don't want gold to stay above three thousand, but
• 17:37
  Speaker 9: I think it will, particularly because of the reasons I'm
• 17:39
  Speaker 9: worried about. Is the US stock market having a bit
• 17:41
  Speaker 9: of a normal correction now ten percents, nothing compared to
• 17:44
  Speaker 9: what usually happens when you have a major shift, which
• 17:47
  Speaker 9: we're having a paradigm shift. And what's happening in the US,
• 17:50
  Speaker 9: maybe how about twenty or thirty percent in stock market
• 17:52
  Speaker 9: That means gold continues higher. So I'm worried at these levels,
• 17:55
  Speaker 9: but I think it's going to continue rally for reasons
• 17:58
  Speaker 9: that are going to hurt most investors unfortunately.
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: Is it also to do with this idea that maybe
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: the government could mark to market their gold reserves and
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: then confiscate gold in order to use that and sort
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: of ramp up the federal the Fed's balance sheet.
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: Now many individuals are going to roll their.
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: Eyes at this and say, oh my god, Alex, seriously,
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: but no, seriously. Could this also be driving some of
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: the last minute buyers.
• 18:24
  Speaker 6: I think that's part of it, Alex.
• 18:26
  Speaker 9: What we're seeing is a major shift of gold coming
• 18:28
  Speaker 9: to the US because the disparities and US COMEX traded
• 18:31
  Speaker 9: gold versus what trades in London. That's usuly indicative of
• 18:34
  Speaker 9: bull market. That whole scenario, I think is part of it.
• 18:38
  Speaker 9: Seems kind of odd to me. Whatever you have the
• 18:40
  Speaker 9: price on the books or not, is it's still US
• 18:43
  Speaker 9: still has about eight thousand tons of gold.
• 18:45
  Speaker 6: It's on it the books at forty two.
• 18:46
  Speaker 9: Dollars an ounce. Okay, it should be marked the market.
• 18:48
  Speaker 9: Why not market? I'm just not the accountant, so I
• 18:51
  Speaker 9: don't really get why that's going to matter for the
• 18:52
  Speaker 9: price of goal.
• 18:53
  Speaker 6: It's a global commodity, and I always one thing I've
• 18:55
  Speaker 6: always enjoyed in.
• 18:56
  Speaker 9: The space of gold bugs is a estate it's manipulated
• 18:59
  Speaker 9: like in the US.
• 18:59
  Speaker 6: Like well, it's a global commodity.
• 19:01
  Speaker 9: It's kind of hard to manimplate something you can trade
• 19:03
  Speaker 9: around the world, and people in India and China hoard
• 19:06
  Speaker 9: it for a good reason historically and particularly Turkey. But
• 19:10
  Speaker 9: I look at that is gold has a good reason
• 19:12
  Speaker 9: to keep going up. And that's particularly because what's just start.
• 19:15
  Speaker 9: One key fact is at the end of last year
• 19:18
  Speaker 9: the US stock market captain GDP was about two x.
• 19:20
  Speaker 9: Now it's going back downward. It's down about six trillion
• 19:23
  Speaker 9: dollars this year. That's twenty percent of GDP. I mean,
• 19:27
  Speaker 9: that's a ten. And what really matters for deflation if
• 19:29
  Speaker 9: that continues, that's what pressures bond yields lower, pressures the
• 19:33
  Speaker 9: FED to ease pressure's inflation, and makes gold go higher.
• 19:36
  Speaker 9: To me, that's the ten that matters in gold. And
• 19:38
  Speaker 9: then there's all those little nuances in between that you
• 19:40
  Speaker 9: see in a normal bull.
• 19:41
  Speaker 6: Market outside of gold.
• 19:43
  Speaker 5: What looks good to you in your space your commodity space.
• 19:46
  Speaker 9: Well, what's been oddly looking really good is copper, and
• 19:49
  Speaker 9: I'm really not on board that trade. Fundamentally, US trade
• 19:52
  Speaker 9: of copper's bumping up against the highest price ever, which
• 19:56
  Speaker 9: was forty four in February of twenty twenty two. I
• 19:58
  Speaker 9: mentioned that month earlier, actually March, and it keeps bumping up,
• 20:01
  Speaker 9: but it's for the wrong reasons. It's because of that
• 20:03
  Speaker 9: disparity between the price that trades on the CME, which
• 20:06
  Speaker 9: is right now about four hours and ninety cents, and
• 20:09
  Speaker 9: price that trades on the LME in London. It's because
• 20:12
  Speaker 9: US terraces, but generally means that will be offset, money
• 20:15
  Speaker 9: will flow, the arbitrage will kick in. It doesn't, so
• 20:18
  Speaker 9: I look at industrial metals as a whole indication copper
• 20:21
  Speaker 9: is a bit of a nuance. Industrial metals versus gold
• 20:23
  Speaker 9: are showing severe global deflationary potential forces gold going up
• 20:27
  Speaker 9: and dustrial metals not going up as much.
• 20:29
  Speaker 6: Copper just doesn't seem like.
• 20:31
  Speaker 9: It can stay up this level levels too much unless
• 20:33
  Speaker 9: China really kicks in. And yeah, they're bouncing, but I
• 20:36
  Speaker 9: don't really see it. With tariff's just starting to accelerate.
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: Oh, such a good point.
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: Such a good point if those deflationary forces are going
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: to drag down copper as well. Mike's super great. I
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: didn't do a year butt for you. I agree, but
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: everything you said, all right, Mike, thanks a lot. Mike
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: Maglow and Boomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist joining us on gold.
• 20:53
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