Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 200 - 1/17/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 200 - 1/17/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:17
Hello, and welcome to episode 200 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:23
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:26
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:33
Happy Friday. Our work week has come to an
0:36
end. We are now within 24 hours of
0:39
the NFL Divisional round, which happens to be one of my favorite
0:43
betting weekends of the year. Enjoy it.
0:46
While last year, guys, it's the last doubleheader or pair of
0:49
doubleheaders that we have two Saturday, of course, 2 Sunday,
0:52
then we'll get conference championship weekend and then
0:55
obviously we got the Super Bowl coming up as well.
0:57
But this should be a lot of fun. I have liens on all these games.
1:00
As of right now, I don't have any official bets, but I do want
1:03
to remind you all that we'll be doing a special rhythm live
1:06
stream on Twitter, 11:00 AM Eastern Time tomorrow.
1:09
It'll be myself and James Santor, so that's probably when
1:12
I'll unveil some official bets as well as some player props
1:16
that I'm monitoring at the end. At the tail end of this pod.
1:18
I'm going to give you just some updates on just how I'm thinking
1:20
through these four games here. And one of the reasons why I am
1:24
going to wait a little bit is because we're kind of hanging
1:26
around key numbers and hooks. Let's see where this late, late
1:29
movement breaks. Obviously, I have leans and
1:32
we'll talk through them all as well as some good system matches
1:34
and rhythm edges. So hope to see you guys
1:36
tomorrow, 11:00 AM Eastern Time for the rhythm live stream,
1:40
which will be streamed live on Twitter.
1:42
You can follow me at Josh under score insights and we'll be
1:45
we'll be off and running tomorrow at 11:00 AM Eastern
1:47
Time. Getting you ready for a big NFL
1:49
weekend. Now looking toward tonight guys,
1:51
let's finish up our week strong here.
1:53
I have a four pack of sweats for you.
1:55
It's going to be all college hoops.
1:57
I got three dogs. I'm hoping that will bark for us
1:59
as well as a total that I'm hoping we'll go over the number.
2:02
This is a bit of a buy low over numbers really fall in here a
2:06
bit. I'm thinking, hey, has it fallen
2:07
too much? Going to root for some points in
2:09
this one and then finishing up the pod with the UFC play for
2:13
you. That's right biting in the
2:15
arena. We got UFC coming up for
2:17
tomorrow night. I believe it's a pay-per-view,
2:19
but I do have one fighter here or biter who has a fantastic low
2:23
bets, higher dollars bet split as well as a really sharp line
2:26
move. And oh by the way, my buddy
2:28
gamble and Lou, my colleague at V Sin, he likes this fighter as
2:32
well or this biter as well. So hopefully we can get a winner
2:35
for Saturday in the UFC. Now looking back to her last
2:38
night, guys continuing to grind, not getting the brakes we want.
2:41
Overall 2 and 3 -, 1.3 units. We had a couple nice hits.
2:45
The Liberty UTEP over 134 1/2 was able to come through.
2:50
The one that was kind of unbelievable and probably took
2:53
ten years off my life was Portland.
2:56
Boy, do we nail that Portland one.
2:57
I remember 2 bad teams going head to They were down quite a
3:01
bit, went to overtime, could have won it multiple times,
3:04
could have lost it multiple times, but found a way to get it
3:07
done. And we money line them when they
3:09
were, I want to say -2 1/2, then up closing -3 1/2 - 4.
3:13
So that was nice to see Portland come through.
3:16
But the frustrating ones were the Devils.
3:19
Come on Devils. They had a one nothing lead, a 2
3:22
to one lead, a three to two lead.
3:23
They blow all of their leads. They go to overtime, they lose
3:27
in overtime. So I don't know what it is about
3:29
some of these these teams blown leads for us, but that one hurt
3:32
because the Devils were in control pretty much the entire
3:34
time. And then you know what they did?
3:36
They blew it for us. So that was not fun.
3:39
Coastal Carolina went to overtime, end up losing by one
3:43
and then Tennessee Tech was down big, made it interesting, end up
3:46
losing anyway. So as always, guys win, lose or
3:50
draw. Let's see if we can post a
3:51
winning day here for today and maybe some of these breaks will
3:54
start to go our way. Wouldn't it be nice instead of
3:56
blowing leads where we come back and win?
3:59
That would be nice to see. I'll be the way guys.
4:01
Let's talk about our place for today, also UFC for tomorrow and
4:04
then I'm going to finish up with some thoughts on these
4:06
divisional round games in the NFL.
4:09
So starting with college hoops tonight, guys, Couple games here
4:12
that caught my eye. I want to begin with, we'll go
4:15
in chronological order, a six PM game tonight.
4:18
This is Ohio and Akron. Now.
4:20
This one's kind of been all over the place, but if you haven't
4:23
got it yet and you can get a pretty decent number at this
4:25
point. So going into it, we have two
4:28
pretty good teams facing off in this one.
4:31
Reminder, early game, 6:00 PM. But we have Ohio coming in 10
4:35
and six. They've won six straight.
4:36
Just took down Ball State 86 to 71, covered as a nine point home
4:41
favorite. You know, Akron 11 and five.
4:44
They've won four in a row, just beat Toledo 8578, but did not
4:47
cover as an 8 point home favorite.
4:50
So what are we seeing across the board here?
4:51
Well, this came open with Akron listed as a 2 1/2 point home
4:55
favorite. And the public is playing Akron
4:57
here. Short number at home, 66% of
5:00
bets at DraftKings, 60% of bets at Circa, both playing the Zips.
5:05
But this movement has been kind of back and forth.
5:07
We at one point saw Akron fall from -2 1/2 all the way down to
5:11
-2 even -1 1/2 at a few shops. I, I this keeps happening to me
5:17
and it's very, very frustrating, but I played Ohio noticing that
5:21
good sharp reverse line move at plus 2 1/2 and then after I bet
5:25
the game about an hour later, it's now crept back up to Akron
5:29
-3 1/2. So remember this happened the
5:32
other night with Uri where I got, what was it 3 1/2.
5:35
It closed 4 1/2. It lands on four.
5:37
So the the patient better was able to cover that one where I
5:41
probably vetted a little bit too early.
5:43
It's always a tough decision when you see a line moving and
5:45
you're not sure which direction it's going to go.
5:47
But I will give you a couple angles here to still kind of
5:50
like the points of Ohio. But Long story short, you're
5:53
still can train with Ohio. You can get a 3 1/2 now at this
5:55
point. And you do have some good bet
5:58
splits here. Ohio at DraftKings, 34% of bets,
6:01
47% of spread dollars. You also get circa 41% of bets,
6:06
56% of dollars. So both books showing a pretty
6:09
good low bets, higher dollars bet split.
6:11
Ohio does have some advantages here.
6:13
Better effective field goal percentage, 55% versus 52%, take
6:18
better care of the ball 91st and turnovers committed versus 145th
6:23
for Akron, OH would match a dog who can score system play.
6:27
They're averaging 81 points per game.
6:29
So either if you're going to cover as a dog, you got to play
6:31
really good defense and keep the keep the number close or keep it
6:34
down, or you got to put up a lot of points in order to keep pace.
6:38
So averaging 81 a game. Hopefully Ohio's got the
6:40
firepower here to cover this number.
6:43
And here's a system match that still applies.
6:45
Short Rd. conference dogs that are getting 4 points or less.
6:49
They're 94 and 72 against the spread this year, 57% with an 8%
6:54
ROI. So again, I jumped the gun a
6:56
bit. This thing got all the way down
6:57
to 1 1/2. I felt like it was time to grab
7:00
the 2 1/2, but hey, maybe this is another Billy Walters back
7:03
and forth head fake. It's now 3 1/2 but I'm going to
7:06
dance the one who brung me. I'm sticking with my bad.
7:08
Ohio 2 1/2. If you want to play it now
7:10
again, 3 1/2 is available to you.
7:12
And I would mention Rhythm does have this game.
7:15
Ohio plus 2.4. So hopefully, hopefully it does
7:19
land 2 or less, but I'm going to go with the dog here.
7:21
Ohio again. You can now get them at 3 1/2.
7:24
Next one for you, VCU and Saint Joe's.
7:28
This is a 7:00 game. We have VCU coming in 13 and 4.
7:32
They've won three in a row, just took down Saint Louis 78 to 62
7:36
covered as a 10 point home favorite.
7:38
Meanwhile, Saint Joe's, always remember Saint Joe's back in the
7:41
day with Delonte West and Jameer Nelson.
7:44
But 11:00 and 6:00 on the year just snapped A2 game losing
7:47
skid. They blew out Loyola Chicago 93
7:49
to 57 easily covering as a 5 point home favorite.
7:53
So what are you seeing across the market here?
7:55
Well, kind of a frustrating similar situation with back and
7:58
forth line movement, but once again if you haven't got it yet,
8:01
you are getting a better number. So what do I mean by that?
8:04
This game open with VCU listed as a 2 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
8:08
We saw VCU get down to -2 even -1 1/2 across the market.
8:14
So once again I said hey let's grab, let's grab Saint Joe's
8:18
plus 2 1/2. Now we've seen this creep up to
8:21
3 1/2. So who knows maybe another head
8:23
fake here, but some reasons to still like VCU in this situation
8:27
or sorry to still like Saint Joe's in this situation.
8:30
One is Saint Joe's pretty good bets what only 42% bets 65%
8:35
dollars. Ken Palm has VCU losing by two
8:39
or sorry Saint Joe's losing by two.
8:42
Rhythm has them just plus one or plus 1.5.
8:45
So I do like that angle here playing this home dog.
8:49
Also, if you look at Saint Joe's, better offensive
8:52
efficiency, 54% versus 52%, better three-point shooting, 35%
8:57
versus 32% and at the charity stripe, 74% versus 71%.
9:04
Do have a rest advantage here. For the Saint Joe's Hawks, they
9:07
last played on the 11th versus VCU last playing on the 14th.
9:11
So a little extra time in the gym, rest rehab game plan, home
9:15
Rd. splits. VCU is just one and two on the
9:17
road, Saint Joe's seven and three at home, and we have
9:20
another system match on Saint Joe's.
9:22
If you are a short home conference dog getting 4 or
9:25
less. Those teams this year, if the
9:27
line stays the same, removes in their favor.
9:29
Now this no longer applies because it did just creep back
9:31
up, but that system was 31 and 20 against the spread, 61% this
9:36
season, 15% ROI. So I'm going to stick again with
9:40
my bad 2 1/2. If you want to play Saint Joe's,
9:43
go contrarian again. Ken Palms got a 2 point game and
9:47
we have what was it rhythm with A1 and a 1 1/2 point game.
9:52
But if you want to go Saint Joe's Contrarian, you can now
9:54
get a 3 1/2. Luckily one that hasn't moved
9:57
against me, which is nice to see.
9:59
Late night sweat. Boise State and New Mexico
10:02
should be a really good game to the better teams here in the
10:05
Mountain West. Boise State comes in 13 and
10:07
five. However, they've been kind of
10:09
back and forth rotated wins and losses over their last four
10:12
games. They did just crushed Wyoming
10:14
though, 96 to 55 easily covered as a 13 point home favorite.
10:19
New Mexico. Meanwhile, 14 and 4.
10:21
Remember, this is Rick Pitino's kid who's the coach just saw
10:25
their seven game win streak come to an end.
10:26
However, they lost to San Jose State 71 to 70.
10:29
That was kind of a bad loss. They were favored by 9 1/2
10:32
points on the road there. So what do we see across the
10:35
market? Well, a true sharp line freeze
10:37
in favor of Boise. I'm taking Boise State and the
10:40
points plus 3 1/2. So this game open New Mexico 3
10:44
1/2 point home. Favorite public is leaning
10:46
toward New Mexico. Lobos are getting 60% of bets at
10:50
DraftKings. Yet the lines pretty much stayed
10:53
3 1/2. Now a couple shops did creep up
10:55
to 4, immediately come back down to 3 1/2.
10:58
Some books even got down to three and then came back up to 3
11:02
1/2. So split the difference. 3 1/2
11:04
opener. Basically still 3 1/2 right now
11:07
even though majority of bets are on New Mexico.
11:09
So it tells me we got hopefully a live dog here in Boise State.
11:13
Boise State, by the way, 40% of spread bets, 54% of spread
11:17
dollars, a good low bets, higher dollars bet split.
11:21
Ken Palm does have New Mexico winning, but only by two points.
11:24
So pretty good edge there. If we're able to get Boise plus
11:27
3 1/2, which should be pretty much -110 across the board.
11:31
Couple advantages here for Boise State, the better offensive
11:34
efficiency, 29th in the country versus 95th.
11:37
That's a good edge, hopefully with a dog who can score and
11:40
keep pace and hopefully cover. Better effective field goal
11:43
percentage, 54% versus 50%. Better offensive rebound
11:47
percentage, 35% versus 32%. And also a big edge at the free
11:52
throw line. Hopefully this is a benefit to
11:54
Boise State. They're shooting 78% from the
11:56
charity stripe versus only 68% for New Mexico.
12:01
Also, Boise only giving up 66 points a game.
12:04
New Mexico gives up around 73. And this will be another system
12:07
match. Short Rd. conference dog getting
12:09
4 or less 94 and 72 ATS this year. 57%.
12:14
So luckily this one hasn't moved against me.
12:16
I don't know what's going on here with these back and forth
12:18
moves. It's been, it's been frustrating
12:21
to say the least. But anyway, this one stayed the
12:23
same, which is good. I'd love to see it fall down to
12:26
three, which would tell me more smart money here would be going
12:29
with Boise, but I'm going to take Boise in the points plus 3
12:32
1/2. Our friends at Rhythm have Boise
12:35
plus 2.7, so hopefully a good edge right there.
12:39
Last game of the night, I got a total play for you, Iowa and
12:42
UCLA. So this is a 9:00 game here
12:45
tonight. You have Iowa coming in 12 and
12:47
five, UCLA 11:00 and 6:00. If you want to sweat this one,
12:51
it's on FS1, but I like the over in this game.
12:54
Now, one thing I did notice in terms of the side is did move a
12:57
little bit toward Iowa. UCLA open as high as -7 the line
13:01
is down or even 7 1/2. Line is now down to 6 1/2.
13:05
So line moving toward a dog. Hopefully that means competitive
13:08
game, shorter spread is getting shorter, hopefully benefit
13:11
toward back and forth play, maybe overtime, which would be a
13:14
benefit to the offense. But this one has moved so much
13:18
that it looks to me like it's creating a buy low over
13:20
opportunity. So this total opened at 1:55 and
13:26
now you're seeing this line get down to 151 1/2.
13:30
Some shops even possibly 151. So definitely have to respect
13:35
the fact that early money hit this under under 155 one 54153,
13:40
maybe 152 1/2. But now if you're playing the
13:43
under, yes, you're with the move, but you're also getting
13:45
the worst of the number. So I'm looking at some angles
13:48
here to buy low and play this over.
13:50
I played the over 151 1/2 that was at some reduced juice, I
13:54
believe was ESPN bet minus one O 5.
13:56
So it'd be nice to hit that and get a get nearly a full unit
13:59
back. But a couple things, we got the
14:01
line moving toward the dog. Now Ken Palm has a 151 and
14:05
Rhythm has a 151.6. So you're kind of right there on
14:08
the number. But one thing I was looking at
14:11
last night and that Liberty UTEP game was basically tempo scoring
14:17
and being able to hit your threes, which is always a good
14:19
sign for a for an over. But Iowa, this is a bit of a
14:23
play on Iowa. They're scoring 90 points a
14:25
game, giving up nearly 80 points a game.
14:27
Their offensive efficiency is 17th in the country, effective
14:31
field goal percentage nearly 60%.
14:34
And here's the key. 3 point shooting 40%.
14:37
One of the best 3 point shooting teams in college.
14:40
Flip it. UCLA not quite as prolific
14:42
offensively, but they do have an effective field goal percentage
14:45
of 52%. If you're above 50 tells me it's
14:48
it's pretty decent. And they are shooting 33% from
14:51
three, so both teams can knock down threes.
14:54
Iowa, one of the fastest tempo teams in the country, 72.1
14:58
possessions per game. That's 18th fastest.
15:01
And remember, there's over 300 teams.
15:04
I also like the fact that these teams are rested.
15:06
Iowa last played on the 14th of January.
15:09
UCLA last played on the 13th of January.
15:12
So the fact this thing is falling so much, I'm thinking
15:15
it's an opportunity to buy low and go over here.
15:17
Especially the fact that the line is moving toward the dog
15:19
and we have fast pace, good shooting, good tempo, a lot of
15:24
scoring. Hopefully this is a higher,
15:26
higher scoring game. And think of it this way, if
15:29
this lands 152, we'll be able to cash in the sharps with the
15:32
under early would cash this one as well.
15:35
So it's not always about you know what what what side you're
15:38
playing or what side of the total, but what number you're
15:40
getting and how how big that line is moved from the open of
15:44
the current. But I'm going to see if we can
15:45
maybe buy low and get this over 9:00 game.
15:48
Iowa, UCLA, I'm on over 151 1/2. So let's get some dogs to bark.
15:55
Let's get some high scoring games.
15:56
Now over to the UFC biting in the arena.
16:00
By the way, this is, I believe, at the Intuit Dome, which is the
16:04
LA Clippers arena, but this is Makachev and Sarukyan too.
16:09
Now I'm going to focus on a big bout here between Jamahal Hill
16:14
and Yuri Prochowska. We've got some big boys going at
16:18
it here. So for those who are new to
16:21
betting UFC, get ready. It's the sweat of a lifetime
16:24
because at any moment you can win or lose, you can knock or
16:27
choke someone out, you could get knocked or choked out.
16:29
So just prepare yourself. But I've come up with kind of a
16:33
data-driven approach here over time where I want to marry the
16:36
tail of the tape advantages with what the betting market is
16:39
telling me. So I'm looking for fighters or
16:42
fighters who are younger, taller and have a longer reach and then
16:46
also have a low bets, higher dollars bet split and a line
16:49
move in their favor. So I landed on Jamahal hill.
16:53
I'm playing Jamahal hill now he's around -140 across the
16:56
market. But I did find at ESPN bet he's
16:59
-125 So as always, shop around, have multiple outs.
17:03
That's my play. Jamahal Hill at -125 Now why am
17:07
I playing hill? Let's start off with the betting
17:09
data. Wait, I wake up every Friday
17:11
morning and I get a nice little e-mail from my buddy John Ewing
17:14
at Bet MGM who does a nice job of giving me the entire card
17:17
bets and dollars and line movement.
17:19
And the first thing I noticed is John Mahal Hill has a really
17:22
sharp dog to fave line move. He actually opened as roundup
17:25
even money plus 100 dog and he's now flipped to -125 -, 140.
17:31
So that tells me a lot of steam came in on Hill.
17:34
He's also got a really good bet split.
17:36
He's only getting 54% of bets, but 92% of dollars.
17:41
Really good low bets, higher dollars, bet split.
17:44
So basically public split. Yet the line moving the big
17:46
money is on John Mahal Hill. So that's where I want to be.
17:50
It's not really an edge in terms of age.
17:52
He's 33, his opponents 32. You're about equal.
17:56
He does have a one inch height advantage, 63 inches versus 62
18:00
inches. They're both around the same
18:02
reach. So you have the height, you
18:04
don't have the really the the youth or the reach.
18:08
So it's not really a perfect play in terms of our system.
18:11
But here's what kind of sent me over the edge of the hill,
18:14
significant strikes per minute. I was reading about how both
18:17
these guys, they don't like to go to the mat, they don't really
18:19
wrestle. They're both kind of strikers.
18:22
And John Mahal Hill is the much more aggressive striker.
18:25
He is dishing out 7.2 significant strikes per minute
18:30
versus only 5.4 for Yuri Prochaska.
18:34
Then obviously you want to look at offense, but defense is also
18:37
important because you got to protect yourself, not get
18:39
knocked out. John Mahal Hill is only
18:42
absorbing 3.5 significant strikes per minute.
18:45
His opponent is absorbing 5.6. So he takes Hill, takes less
18:50
punishment than his opponent defense of significant strikes.
18:54
46% for Hill, only 31% for Prochazka.
18:59
And then the little cherry on top every Friday, once I get
19:02
that e-mail and I go through the data and I do a little research
19:05
on my own. Then I I go to my guy gamble and
19:08
Lou Lou Finocaro, who I work with that at V send and he does
19:11
a great job. Really, he's the best when it
19:13
comes to UFC. I throw him a few fighters and I
19:16
say, hey, you like any of these? And he said, you know what?
19:18
I'm on Jamahal Hill as well. So I like the fact that our
19:21
buddy Lou also likes hill. So Add all up dog to fave line
19:26
move. Great bet split, dishing out
19:28
more offense, taking less, less punishment defensively.
19:32
I'm going to play John Mahal Hill.
19:33
I already did. I got him at -125 at ESPN bet
19:38
now over to the NFL because even though I don't have any official
19:41
plays yet, I got a lot of thoughts and I got a lot of
19:44
liens. And I'm going to see you over
19:45
the next 24 hours. If I can get maybe some, some
19:50
some movement in the market, indicators in the market,
19:53
that'll that'll make me feel more confident firing at some of
19:55
these bets. So right now I'm leading Houston
19:58
Texans. Kansas City Chiefs opened around
20:02
-7 1/2 -, 8. They're now up to 8 1/2.
20:05
But a lot of these eight and a halfs are juiced up towards
20:08
Houston like it may get back down to 8.
20:10
So I like the fact that Texans at rhythm are only a predicted
20:15
plus 6.7 points. So that's a good edge if we're
20:18
getting 8 1/2. And you would have an angle here
20:21
of fading a divisional round. Favorite lot of people when it
20:24
comes to? Betting the playoffs.
20:26
They think that getting a buy is is huge, and it is, but it's
20:30
somewhat overvalued if you actually bet against the teams
20:33
who had a first round buy. That's a 58% ATS record 42 and
20:38
30 ATS over the last about two decades.
20:41
It's a pretty good sample size. So that caught my eye with with
20:45
Houston. I did notice as well Sama JP
20:49
Ryan over 9 1/2 receiving yards. I'm thinking about maybe playing
20:53
him rhythms, predicting 18.6. And if you remember, P Ryan had
20:58
a really good game against Houston earlier this year and
21:00
he's become much more involved in the offense.
21:02
So P Ryan caught my eye a little bit and I am leaning Houston.
21:05
And hey, I know, I know everyone wants to tease down Kansas City.
21:08
I'm not going to argue with you. 8 1/2 down to 2 1/2.
21:12
Did see the total fall there. Windy cold.
21:15
That was around 42 1/2 down to 41 1/2.
21:18
Next one, Washington, Detroit. I'm holding out see if I can get
21:21
Washington plus 10. If not, I think I'll take the 9
21:24
1/2. Rhythm has commanders plus 6.3.
21:28
That's a pretty good edge there. That's new.
21:30
That's literally 3 points off the current number.
21:33
And if you look at a fading of a divisional round favorite, we
21:36
just mentioned fading Kansas City.
21:38
Will this be a fate of Detroit? And you also have divisional
21:42
round dogs doing pretty well. They're around 59% ATS over the
21:46
last about 20 years. So I'm keeping an eye on that.
21:49
And I am interested possibly in Zach Ertz over 29 1/2 receiving
21:54
yards rhythms predicting 39. So once again, I haven't played
21:57
any of these, but these are my thoughts in the way I'm leaning
22:00
right now. And if you put make me play the
22:02
total, it's got to be under. Nothing open 5655 1/2 Publix
22:07
hammering the over, yet it's kind of stayed the same or been
22:10
55 1/2 juiced up to the under. If you were a high total of 47
22:14
or more. The under is 3 and O this year
22:17
it's 65% since 2018. So I am leaning toward that
22:21
under as well. Rams and Philly, I'm leaning the
22:25
dog plus 6 1/2 here with the Rams.
22:27
I did see the line move toward Philly.
22:29
It was as low as -5 1/2. Now up to six or 6 1/2.
22:32
There's only a couple shops with the hook, but you can find a
22:35
couple plus 6 1/2. Rhythm has Rams plus 4.1.
22:39
So that's a pretty good edge there.
22:41
Obviously you have the experience with Stafford and
22:43
McVeigh and you do have, you know, a, a good two good
22:47
defenses playing as well, which is why we have seen this total
22:49
dip a bit, 44 1/2 down to 43 1/2.
22:52
And I was reading reports of possibly a snow game.
22:55
So it could be cold, could be snowy.
22:57
But I'm also keeping an eye on that one.
23:00
And then the big one, the one that we're all excited to sweat,
23:03
Baltimore Buffalo. Nothing's gotten me off of
23:06
Baltimore as of now. Most books were Baltimore minus
23:10
one 1 1/2. There are some books still
23:12
around to pick them. Pretty much every book is now
23:14
showing Baltimore favored. They got a pretty good bet split
23:17
at circa 52% bets, 96% dollars. And Rhythm has Baltimore -2 and
23:22
if you remember Baltimore, I know it's a long time ago, but I
23:25
think it was week four, week 5, somewhere around there.
23:27
They crushed Buffalo like 35 to 10.
23:31
So that's dog to fave good bet split.
23:33
Rhythm tells me, hey, that's a should be a -, 2.
23:37
I really can't, can't go against that one as of now.
23:40
But again, I'm wondering if we continue to see Baltimore
23:44
favorite or will there be buyback between now and Sunday?
23:47
And then if you are looking at some props, a couple caught my
23:50
eye. Curtis Samuel, receiver for
23:53
Buffalo, 12 1/2 receiving yards in the market.
23:55
Rhythm is predicting 19.2. He's been playing pretty well in
23:59
last couple games. And then Dawson knocks 14 1/2.
24:04
Rhythm is predicting 21. So those could be a couple guys
24:07
worth a look. But truth be told, I haven't bet
24:09
any of these. Again, when you tune into the
24:12
live stream tomorrow morning at around 11:00 AM or at 11:00 AM
24:15
Eastern Time, we'll go through all these plays.
24:17
But I just want to give it a little bit more time as the more
24:20
public betting piles in here and, and we'll see if we can
24:24
hopefully squeeze out a few plays.
24:25
But of the ones I mentioned, I can almost guarantee you I'll be
24:29
betting at least a few of those. So that's it for now.
24:32
But again, live stream 11:00 AM tomorrow, tomorrow morning on
24:36
ESPN on Twitter and we'll be we'll be giving you some updates
24:40
there. So that about does it for
24:42
episode 202 zero zero 200. Can you believe it?
24:46
Of the all systems go sports betting pod powered by rhythm.
24:50
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up.
24:52
And I start first by asking you a favor. 1st, I'm going to thank
24:55
you. Thank you for taking the time
24:56
out of your busy lives to devote 30 minutes or so for talking
25:00
sharp betting line moves with me.
25:02
But secondly, if you enjoy the pod, win, loser draw, hopefully
25:05
you value the insights. Hopefully you feel like you're
25:08
making sharper bets. If that's the case and you want
25:11
to let me know you appreciate the pod, could you please do one
25:14
favor for me? Could you give this podcast a
25:16
five star review? Five stars on Spotify or iTunes
25:20
would really go a long way to helping us to continue to grow
25:23
the pod. Secondly, if you enjoy the POD
25:26
and you want to learn more about data-driven betting, how lines
25:29
are set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how
25:32
to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online,
25:35
how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
25:38
management plan, all included in my book The Everything Guide to
25:41
Sports Betting. So if you want to support the
25:44
team and buy a copy or gift a copy to that buddy of yours who
25:47
parlays everything and double S down and triples down, maybe you
25:51
could send them straight to the bankroll management chapter.
25:54
But you can just go to Amazon, type in the everything guide to
25:56
sports betting, pick one up and bring it to the sports book
26:00
where I will meet you and I will sign it for you and I'll buy you
26:02
a beer or ginger ale next. With a huge betting weekend
26:07
ahead of us, have you signed up for your 7 day free trial of
26:10
Juice Reel or Rhythm yet? Well, if you haven't, now is the
26:13
time to go to your App Store, whether that is the Google Play
26:17
or iTunes if you got the iPhone. But download Rhythm RITHMM
26:22
Rhythm is fantastic for sponsoring this pod but also
26:25
giving us those AI backed models and predictions for game bets as
26:29
well as player props. And then of course Juice Reel
26:32
where you can find all the all systems go best bet picks.
26:34
Again, I'll be putting in some plays for the divisional round.
26:37
So if you want to track them and be aware of those, you can
26:40
follow them on the Juice Reel app for $4.99 a week.
26:44
Again, cup of coffee for five days worth or six or seven days
26:48
worth of insights. Hopefully you feel like that is
26:50
a that is a fair price, but you can also get the robo Jackson
26:54
best bet picks. You can also get the arbitrage
26:57
opportunity sharp mush indicators shop for the best
26:59
line opportunities makes it very easy finding you the best
27:02
futures payout. But that's all available on
27:05
juice reel. So download rhythm, download
27:07
juice reel and and we'll be making smart bets left and right
27:12
with this great data at our fingertips.
27:14
So that about does it for episode 200.
27:16
Finishing up the work week here, guys, nearly halfway through,
27:19
more than halfway through January at this point.
27:22
But as always, I'm going to leave with a couple things.
27:24
First, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
27:28
River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
27:30
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut, at the Encore in
27:33
Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield.
27:36
In my neck of the woods in Massachusetts or out in the
27:39
desert where the true grinders get down.
27:41
Where Billy Walter sends his number runners, where the lowest
27:43
choose possible is found at the South Point.
27:45
Or Sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
27:48
swim pool. When you cash a big ticket at
27:50
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me
27:53
and show me a Portland Pilots ticket.
27:56
Late night. Sweat who stayed up late enough
27:57
to watch that one. I did great hit there in
28:01
overtime. Liberty UTEP over.
28:03
Whatever you do, Devils. What a pathetic Devils play that
28:07
was that was sharp as a tack. 3 different leads blew them all
28:11
lost in overtime. Devils your dead to me as of now
28:14
until I until you're sharp again I'll give you another chance.
28:16
But anyway guys first one's on me next one's on you.
28:19
We're going to post about the book Sweat sharp contrarian
28:21
plays all night long so wish the best of luck everyone.
28:25
As always win lose, up, down, grinding, hot, cold doesn't
28:31
matter the model the blueprint never changes.
28:33
Flat bedding never changes, making smart bets with our head
28:36
and not our heart never changes. If we can stay true to the model
28:39
against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
28:42
avoid parlays, get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
28:45
to be successful sports bettors. So have a great Friday night
28:48
everybody. Have an even better weekend.
28:50
Enjoy just one of the most glorious betting weekends of the
28:53
year with double headers in the NFL playoffs tomorrow and
28:57
Sunday. And I look forward to seeing you
28:59
guys tomorrow at 11:00 AM Eastern Time for the Rhythm
29:02
special Saturday edition, not Sunday sweats, but Saturday
29:06
sweats. And then after that, we'll be
29:07
right back at it on Monday. And by the way, we got the
29:11
national championship game, still got Ohio State around -8
29:15
1/2. So let's let's give that a
29:16
couple days and should have a play for that one for you guys
29:19
as well. But I'll see you guys back on
29:21
Monday, which will be episode 2 O one of the All Systems Go
29:25
sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
29:28
Good luck everybody and have a great weekend.