Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / The WORST CASE SCENARIO for the GOP in November’s Midterms

Transcript

The WORST CASE SCENARIO for the GOP in November’s Midterms · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:02
  So much coming up for you today.
• 0:04
  We've talked about some things that could go right for Republicans.
• 0:07
  Uh,
• 0:07
  we're gonna do a best case scenario episode maybe next week,
• 0:11
  but today we're gonna dive into what could be the worst case scenario.
• 0:14
  How bad can it get for the GOP in the midterms?
• 0:17
  We'll get into that.
• 0:17
  We have another episode of
• 0:19
  Candidate Countdown,
• 0:20
  another race that we like,
• 0:21
  and we will,
• 0:21
  uh,
• 0:22
  show you.
• 0:22
  Uh,
• 0:23
  some of the results on that one.
• 0:24
  We had Rhode Island,
• 0:25
  the primary tonight,
• 0:26
  a weird Wednesday primary,
• 0:28
  just like a weird NFL
• 0:29
  game on a Wednesday.
• 0:30
  We've got a primary on a Wednesday today.
• 0:32
  We had New Hampshire last night,
• 0:33
  we'll go through some of that.
• 0:34
  And,
• 0:35
  uh,
• 0:35
  a new ad from Polymarket with LeBron
• 0:37
  James and seemingly every celebrity on the planet
• 0:40
  that's making the rounds.
• 0:41
  We'll get into that as well.
• 0:42
  It's all coming up on Predictable with Stu.
• 1:00
  Well,
• 1:00
  as you may know,
• 1:00
  I screwed up my arm in a,
• 1:02
  in a
• 1:03
  heroic
• 1:05
  bicycle accident,
• 1:06
  um,
• 1:07
  a few weeks ago,
• 1:07
  and so I'm really in pain today and I'm kind of miserable,
• 1:10
  and it's a perfect day for that because,
• 1:13
  uh,
• 1:13
  we're gonna go into the worst case scenario
• 1:16
  for Republicans in the primary.
• 1:17
  What could actually happen,
• 1:18
  how will it affect your prediction market
• 1:20
  positions.
• 1:21
  We will get into that,
• 1:22
  uh,
• 1:22
  very,
• 1:22
  very soon.
• 1:23
  We also have the only thing making me feel good right now.
• 1:26
  The National
• 1:27
  Football League is back tonight.
• 1:29
  Patriots,
• 1:30
  Seattle.
• 1:31
  I'm very excited to,
• 1:32
  uh,
• 1:32
  watch some of that tonight.
• 1:34
  I've got,
• 1:35
  uh,
• 1:36
  just a,
• 1:36
  just a wild week and so much stuff going on.
• 1:38
  Part of it is just because I,
• 1:40
  you know,
• 1:40
  with me messing up my arm,
• 1:41
  I'm kind of,
• 1:42
  uh,
• 1:42
  behind on everything,
• 1:43
  so I have a million things to do here.
• 1:45
  We also have the Republican National Convention
• 1:47
  in town.
• 1:48
  Uh,
• 1:48
  I've got some events associated with that tonight.
• 1:50
  I think I'm,
• 1:51
  I think I'm gonna go tomorrow night.
• 1:53
  Um,
• 1:53
  to watch some of the,
• 1:54
  the big speeches,
• 1:56
  uh,
• 1:56
  so we'll maybe have some reporting,
• 1:57
  uh,
• 1:58
  for you,
• 1:58
  uh,
• 1:58
  from there,
• 1:59
  uh,
• 2:00
  and it'll be great.
• 2:00
  There's lots of people from the Blaze in town,
• 2:02
  uh,
• 2:02
  other,
• 2:03
  uh,
• 2:03
  hosts from the Blaze,
• 2:04
  as you know,
• 2:05
  I do a show on The Blaze called Stu and Dave Do America.
• 2:08
  Uh,
• 2:08
  with Dave Landau,
• 2:09
  uh,
• 2:10
  so that is going on as well.
• 2:12
  Lots of big Blaze personalities.
• 2:13
  I've even seen Glenn Beck,
• 2:14
  kind of,
• 2:14
  I haven't actually talked to him.
• 2:16
  He's been mulling around,
• 2:17
  uh,
• 2:17
  the studio here the last couple of days.
• 2:19
  So hopefully get to,
• 2:20
  uh,
• 2:20
  connect with him,
• 2:21
  uh,
• 2:21
  while he's here.
• 2:22
  He's not in Dallas all that often,
• 2:23
  uh,
• 2:23
  these days,
• 2:24
  but we're very excited,
• 2:25
  of course,
• 2:26
  uh,
• 2:26
  to do all that stuff with our,
• 2:27
  uh,
• 2:28
  uh,
• 2:28
  friends and family over at
• 2:30
  the Blaze.
• 2:31
  One thing I wanna start with,
• 2:32
  which is really,
• 2:32
  really cool,
• 2:33
  a brand new thing you're hearing about this,
• 2:35
  uh,
• 2:36
  first,
• 2:36
  here on Predictable with Stu.
• 2:39
  Predictable Stu has a,
• 2:40
  an,
• 2:40
  an additional home.
• 2:42
  Yes,
• 2:42
  we will be part of your Blaze TV subscription.
• 2:45
  Predictable with Stu coming soon
• 2:47
  to Blaze TV as they uh expand there.
• 2:50
  Uh,
• 2:51
  wonderful political coverage,
• 2:52
  which of course I'm a part of anyway
• 2:54
  as part of the blaze
• 2:55
  makes perfect sense,
• 2:56
  right?
• 2:56
  A lot of people watch,
• 2:57
  uh,
• 2:57
  Stu and Dave do America,
• 2:58
  of course,
• 2:59
  the Glenn Beck program,
• 3:00
  Stu does America,
• 3:01
  Patton Stew,
• 3:02
  Wonderful World of Stu,
• 3:02
  all the Stew branded shows over the years.
• 3:05
  Well,
• 3:05
  now Predictable joins the family as well.
• 3:07
  We're gonna be having the show as part of your Blaze TV
• 3:10
  subscription.
• 3:11
  Still be available to you wherever you're watching today
• 3:14
  or listening today.
• 3:15
  Just an additional place you'll be able to take in Blaze TV.
• 3:19
  Uh,
• 3:19
  excuse me,
• 3:20
  uh,
• 3:20
  predictable with Stu
• 3:21
  now on Blaze TV and we've got,
• 3:22
  uh,
• 3:23
  lots of great,
• 3:23
  uh,
• 3:24
  big announcements coming up,
• 3:25
  kind of on that front as well as we go through
• 3:27
  the week.
• 3:27
  So really exciting times here as we get closer to the election.
• 3:30
  You know,
• 3:30
  people have more of a thirst for prediction markets.
• 3:32
  You've been here maybe for a while.
• 3:34
  You've been looking at these elections on a day to day basis.
• 3:36
  As we get closer and closer to November,
• 3:37
  this is just going to ramp up.
• 3:39
  We're starting to see more and more interest on those categories outside of sports.
• 3:43
  Now,
• 3:43
  I,
• 3:43
  as a fan of sports,
• 3:45
  I like the,
• 3:45
  the prediction markets feature sports.
• 3:47
  I have a great time.
• 3:48
  Uh,
• 3:49
  going on prediction markets and utilizing them
• 3:51
  in that way.
• 3:51
  We look for usually
• 3:53
  different opportunities
• 3:54
  than,
• 3:55
  um,
• 3:55
  you know,
• 3:55
  going on and just predicting the outcome of a game.
• 3:58
  Uh,
• 3:58
  we look for usually longer term things.
• 4:00
  We may do some stuff on that,
• 4:01
  uh,
• 4:01
  with the NFL tomorrow.
• 4:03
  So anyway,
• 4:03
  predictable with Stu.
• 4:04
  If you're a Blaze TV subscriber,
• 4:06
  it's gonna be in your feed.
• 4:07
  You don't have to do anything.
• 4:08
  Uh,
• 4:08
  if you are not a Blaze TV subscriber,
• 4:10
  uh,
• 4:11
  you can still watch the show where you are,
• 4:12
  but we would encourage you to join Blaze TV,
• 4:14
  uh,
• 4:15
  at blazetv.com.
• 4:16
  It's a great community,
• 4:17
  um,
• 4:18
  and,
• 4:18
  uh,
• 4:19
  lots of shows that you're gonna like,
• 4:20
  uh,
• 4:20
  particularly,
• 4:21
  uh,
• 4:21
  if you like following the news,
• 4:22
  you like following politics,
• 4:23
  uh,
• 4:24
  I think you'll get a lot out of the membership.
• 4:25
  We are 55 days away from the midterm elections
• 4:29
  and 9 days away,
• 4:30
  9 days,
• 4:31
  9 times,
• 4:32
  9 days away from early voting,
• 4:35
  um,
• 4:35
  so we have a couple more primaries tonight,
• 4:37
  Rhode Island,
• 4:37
  as I mentioned,
• 4:38
  September 15th and Delaware,
• 4:39
  and then we're done.
• 4:40
  That's the last one.
• 4:42
  At least we hope it's the last one.
• 4:43
  it's September 15th,
• 4:45
  and then we,
• 4:45
  you know,
• 4:46
  it's funny,
• 4:46
  it's three days before early voting starts on September 18th in Minnesota,
• 4:50
  South Dakota,
• 4:50
  and Virginia,
• 4:51
  goes the 19th in Vermont,
• 4:52
  24th in Illinois,
• 4:54
  and October 4th
• 4:56
  in Maine.
• 4:57
  So what are we looking for in this election?
• 5:00
  Where could this go?
• 5:03
  What could this mean for the country?
• 5:05
  These are all questions I think we talk about and ask
• 5:08
  about and think about on a day to day basis.
• 5:10
  And
• 5:11
  we have our,
• 5:12
  our feelings,
• 5:12
  right?
• 5:13
  Which way do we think this is going to go?
• 5:15
  We've talked about this at length.
• 5:17
  The normal
• 5:18
  everyday
• 5:20
  run of the mill occurrence
• 5:21
  is that Democrats will take the house
• 5:24
  and will be competitive in the Senate because
• 5:27
  of what happens in midterm elections.
• 5:30
  If everything's going swimmingly,
• 5:31
  you expect to lose some seats in the House and maybe lose some seats in the Senate,
• 5:34
  depending on how the map is structured.
• 5:36
  Republicans with a good map this time have a chance to protect the Senate.
• 5:39
  The House has been thought of as being a long shot,
• 5:42
  maybe for a little while,
• 5:44
  um,
• 5:44
  but.
• 5:45
  The question is,
• 5:47
  that's normal times.
• 5:48
  If everything goes great,
• 5:50
  Republicans,
• 5:51
  uh,
• 5:51
  might hold on to the House.
• 5:53
  Maybe they hold on to the Senate,
• 5:54
  maybe nothing changes.
• 5:55
  That's the best case scenario for Republicans.
• 5:57
  But let's go over
• 5:59
  the worst case scenario.
• 6:00
  Next week we'll do a show
• 6:02
  where we talk about the best case scenario
• 6:04
  for Republicans and go through a bunch of the stats that support that argument,
• 6:07
  and there is an argument.
• 6:08
  That things aren't going to be catastrophic for Republicans.
• 6:11
  Um,
• 6:11
  I don't think
• 6:13
  the worst case scenario
• 6:15
  is going to come true.
• 6:16
  I don't think it's that bad,
• 6:18
  but there are arguments made by some serious people
• 6:21
  with data behind them
• 6:22
  that will lead you to believe that maybe,
• 6:25
  maybe
• 6:26
  the worst case scenario is right around the corner
• 6:28
  in less than 2 months
• 6:29
  for the Republican Party,
• 6:31
  and this is gonna get.
• 6:32
  Really,
• 6:32
  really ugly.
• 6:33
  Let me go through this evidence.
• 6:34
  I want you to have it.
• 6:35
  I want you to know it.
• 6:36
  I want you to be able to understand it so you can judge it for yourself,
• 6:39
  and it will also affect,
• 6:40
  of course,
• 6:41
  how you play prediction markets.
• 6:42
  I was kind of thinking about this and talking about it with,
• 6:44
  uh,
• 6:44
  we do a,
• 6:45
  um,
• 6:45
  uh,
• 6:46
  uh,
• 6:47
  a live stream of this taping
• 6:49
  with the predictable,
• 6:50
  um,
• 6:51
  premium subscribers,
• 6:52
  the posse,
• 6:53
  uh,
• 6:53
  and we often,
• 6:55
  uh,
• 6:55
  will discuss things beforehand and one of the things I was talking about was,
• 6:58
  uh,
• 6:59
  you know.
• 7:00
  I'm,
• 7:01
  I was looking at my positions because I've now really
• 7:04
  put a,
• 7:05
  you know,
• 7:05
  a decent amount of my portfolios in place
• 7:08
  for at least the foreseeable future
• 7:10
  leading into the election,
• 7:12
  and
• 7:13
  as I'm doing that and going about that and trying to get these early gains,
• 7:16
  the outlying idea of a catastrophic situation for Republicans.
• 7:21
  Well,
• 7:22
  first of all,
• 7:22
  make a bunch of my positions win much more easily,
• 7:25
  like the ones that are,
• 7:26
  you know,
• 7:26
  gonna be towards the Democrats,
• 7:27
  but
• 7:28
  there are fringe positions that are Republicans that if it goes
• 7:31
  super catastrophic,
• 7:32
  kind of like the race that I mentioned,
• 7:34
  uh,
• 7:34
  yesterday
• 7:35
  as our,
• 7:36
  uh,
• 7:36
  candidate countdown,
• 7:37
  uh,
• 7:38
  uh,
• 7:38
  um,
• 7:39
  candidate of the day,
• 7:40
  Ashley Hinson in Iowa,
• 7:41
  like she is at risk in a catastrophic situation,
• 7:44
  you know,
• 7:45
  there's been polls where she's been behind.
• 7:47
  I,
• 7:47
  I tend to believe she's gonna wind up winning that race,
• 7:49
  but if it goes this bad.
• 7:50
  A race like that could be in danger,
• 7:52
  and then that pick is in danger.
• 7:53
  So it kind of really,
• 7:55
  if you think about this as a,
• 7:56
  as a climate,
• 7:57
  right?
• 7:57
  The climate,
• 7:58
  if it's catastrophic for Republicans,
• 8:00
  is gonna make you be a little more protective on that side.
• 8:03
  If it starts feeling that way,
• 8:04
  I may shrink some of those positions
• 8:06
  and grow positions
• 8:07
  on Democrats where I feel like they might win.
• 8:10
  You gotta be able to,
• 8:11
  number one,
• 8:14
  number one.
• 8:16
  Uh,
• 8:16
  the 12th Amendment to our Constitution,
• 8:19
  uh,
• 8:19
  of course,
• 8:19
  is don't invest with your heart.
• 8:21
  If you happen to be a conservative and you say,
• 8:23
  you know what,
• 8:23
  I want Republicans to win and I'm gonna
• 8:25
  back them,
• 8:26
  and I,
• 8:26
  you can't do that.
• 8:27
  Uh,
• 8:27
  you can back them if you,
• 8:29
  if you think they're going to win,
• 8:30
  but you don't do it
• 8:31
  with your heart.
• 8:32
  Um,
• 8:32
  and that is a really,
• 8:33
  really important thing to keep in mind on a day to day basis
• 8:36
  as you go through this.
• 8:37
  If it looks like Democrats are going to win.
• 8:40
  You can't change that.
• 8:41
  You can change it with your one vote,
• 8:43
  in your one state,
• 8:44
  in your one area.
• 8:45
  You can't change it,
• 8:46
  uh,
• 8:46
  an outcome by rooting and putting your money on the line,
• 8:49
  uh,
• 8:50
  when it's gonna be money that winds up burning up in front of you.
• 8:54
  If,
• 8:55
  think of it this way,
• 8:56
  if you're a Republican,
• 8:57
  you think the worst-case scenario is gonna happen.
• 9:00
  This is a good time to hedge your life a little bit because
• 9:02
  you can look for Democrat positions,
• 9:04
  Democrat winning positions that you think are going to happen,
• 9:06
  and then if they somehow don't and you're wrong,
• 9:09
  you might lose a little money,
• 9:09
  but you might get a political outcome you're happy with.
• 9:12
  Um,
• 9:12
  if you go with,
• 9:13
  if you're with your own side and you're like,
• 9:15
  I'm gonna invest with my heart and I'm going with Republicans,
• 9:17
  or if you're a Democrat,
• 9:18
  going with Democrats,
• 9:19
  and then it doesn't turn out your way,
• 9:20
  you kind of get double
• 9:21
  slapped.
• 9:22
  You don't want that to happen.
• 9:24
  You wanna have at least some good outcome there.
• 9:26
  So at least that's the way I think about it.
• 9:27
  So let me go through some of this data here
• 9:28
  and information.
• 9:29
  A couple of things,
• 9:31
  uh,
• 9:31
  that,
• 9:31
  uh,
• 9:31
  I,
• 9:32
  I wanna talk you through.
• 9:32
  And this,
• 9:33
  this first one's gonna come from Kyle Condi.
• 9:35
  He,
• 9:35
  he,
• 9:35
  uh,
• 9:35
  he is,
• 9:36
  uh,
• 9:36
  working,
• 9:37
  he's
• 9:37
  citing an economist YouGov poll.
• 9:40
  And this is something that happens around this time
• 9:42
  every election cycle,
• 9:44
  um,
• 9:44
  elections,
• 9:46
  especially polling on elections,
• 9:47
  there is art involved
• 9:49
  because it's not just asking a bunch of people and getting the answer.
• 9:52
  You have to make sure it matches the demographics of a society,
• 9:54
  the education levels of a society.
• 9:56
  You have to
• 9:57
  go through a lot of different things to try to make it work.
• 9:59
  Some of these misses you've seen in previous years is because they didn't do
• 10:03
  that work accurately.
• 10:05
  One of the things that
• 10:06
  most polling institutions do
• 10:08
  is they have.
• 10:10
  Three different types of categories
• 10:12
  that they will put voters into and 3 different types of polls.
• 10:15
  A lot of times,
• 10:16
  uh,
• 10:17
  for very generic off year,
• 10:18
  you're not in election time,
• 10:19
  they will do all adults,
• 10:21
  and that's valuable for some things like they'll say,
• 10:23
  OK,
• 10:23
  how do all adults feel about abortion,
• 10:25
  right?
• 10:25
  You're getting an opinion of the entire,
• 10:27
  um.
• 10:28
  Portfolio of Americans.
• 10:30
  But we all know,
• 10:31
  a lot of Americans don't vote.
• 10:33
  They are not really engaged,
• 10:34
  they don't really care.
• 10:35
  So you have the
• 10:35
  all adults,
• 10:36
  which is the widest cast,
• 10:38
  you're not,
• 10:38
  you know,
• 10:38
  they don't typically
• 10:39
  poll kids.
• 10:40
  So you got all adults across the entire spectrum.
• 10:43
  The secondary poll,
• 10:44
  they'll narrow that into registered voters.
• 10:46
  If you haven't even bothered to register to vote,
• 10:48
  well,
• 10:48
  you're probably not gonna wind up voting,
• 10:50
  so they'll do registered voters.
• 10:51
  That's what you've been seeing most of the time with these election polls right now.
• 10:55
  People who are registered to vote,
• 10:56
  and it's,
• 10:57
  it's,
• 10:57
  it's not a,
• 10:58
  not the widest,
• 10:59
  uh,
• 11:00
  net,
• 11:00
  but it is the second,
• 11:01
  and you're narrowing it a little bit,
• 11:03
  just people who are registered to vote.
• 11:05
  Where a lot more art,
• 11:07
  there's not a lot of art that goes into registered voting.
• 11:08
  I mean,
• 11:09
  people could lie to you and say that they're registered when they're not,
• 11:11
  but that's just a yes or no question.
• 11:13
  Are you registered to vote?
• 11:14
  Are you not registered to vote?
• 11:16
  The next one though,
• 11:17
  is where art comes in.
• 11:19
  And
• 11:20
  every polling institution does this differently.
• 11:22
  It's the registered voters to likely voters change,
• 11:25
  and that happens around now.
• 11:28
  Um,
• 11:29
  not,
• 11:29
  it's not the same with every pollster,
• 11:30
  but around now they'll start using likely voter streams,
• 11:33
  uh,
• 11:33
  screens a little bit more,
• 11:35
  um,
• 11:35
  uh,
• 11:36
  aggressively,
• 11:38
  and what a likely voters,
• 11:39
  uh,
• 11:39
  screen will do
• 11:40
  is to say,
• 11:41
  OK,
• 11:41
  well,
• 11:41
  yeah,
• 11:41
  you're registered to vote,
• 11:43
  but you haven't voted in the last 5 elections.
• 11:45
  Are you really likely to show up this time?
• 11:47
  Probably not.
• 11:48
  Uh,
• 11:48
  if you voted in 4 elections in a row,
• 11:51
  you're probably a likely voter.
• 11:52
  That's just one of the ways they determine this.
• 11:53
  There's a bunch of different things,
• 11:55
  the,
• 11:55
  the way that they narrow that down.
• 11:57
  Generally speaking though,
• 11:58
  when you get to likely voters,
• 11:59
  it's the more narrow,
• 12:00
  uh,
• 12:00
  piece of the electorate
• 12:01
  for the people most likely to actually show up and bother to vote.
• 12:05
  I tell you all that to say
• 12:07
  the likely voter numbers for Republicans are considerably worse
• 12:10
  than the registered voter,
• 12:12
  uh,
• 12:12
  numbers for Republicans.
• 12:13
  Kyle Kondick points this out.
• 12:14
  He says economist YouGov does it goes to a likely.
• 12:16
  Voter screen and the dem edge shoots up to 4938
• 12:20
  is a registered voter results had recently been more like D + 6.
• 12:24
  Now maybe the screen is too tight,
• 12:25
  but with Labor Day in the rearview,
• 12:26
  we'll be seeing more switches to likely voter models.
• 12:29
  This will affect the voter models that you'll see.
• 12:31
  It'll affect the one that we're gonna be putting on our site because it's
• 12:33
  the one that we,
• 12:34
  uh,
• 12:34
  and you can get this by the way,
• 12:35
  if you're a premium subscriber,
• 12:37
  uh,
• 12:37
  at predictableshow.com.
• 12:38
  We're gonna have an election model for you.
• 12:40
  That will show you
• 12:41
  not what I think
• 12:42
  and not what prediction markets think,
• 12:44
  but what the other experts and the data and
• 12:46
  the polling and uh the fundamentals of the race,
• 12:49
  what,
• 12:49
  what they say right now.
• 12:51
  And we're gonna combine it from a tons of different sources to
• 12:54
  give you one number that you can look at and say,
• 12:56
  this is what the consensus is,
• 12:58
  right?
• 12:58
  Not necessarily what you believe or what I believe,
• 13:00
  just what is the,
• 13:01
  what's the consensus so I can help judge that
• 13:03
  and then we'll show you that against where the
• 13:05
  prediction markets are so you can look for opportunities.
• 13:07
  Um,
• 13:08
  that is,
• 13:08
  uh,
• 13:09
  something that we're gonna be giving,
• 13:10
  uh,
• 13:10
  to you
• 13:11
  whether you're a subscriber or not for the House and the Senate,
• 13:14
  the overview,
• 13:15
  and then if you are a subscriber to,
• 13:17
  uh,
• 13:17
  PredictableShow.com,
• 13:18
  if you're part of the Predictable Posse,
• 13:20
  uh,
• 13:20
  premium tier,
• 13:21
  you will get
• 13:22
  every single Senate race as well,
• 13:24
  uh,
• 13:24
  so you can look for those opportunities because
• 13:26
  a lot of times there are some sometimes.
• 13:28
  It might be
• 13:28
  something that's you think is 90%
• 13:31
  and it's priced at 80%.
• 13:32
  Uh,
• 13:33
  that's value,
• 13:33
  and we're gonna look for that type,
• 13:34
  uh,
• 13:35
  type of value.
• 13:35
  Just to show you what he's talking about on these screens though,
• 13:37
  this is the most recent economist YouGov poll.
• 13:40
  You see the Democratic candidate,
• 13:41
  and this is a generic ballot,
• 13:42
  basically saying,
• 13:43
  hey,
• 13:43
  if you had a candidate,
• 13:44
  don't think about who's actually running,
• 13:45
  but would you generically vote for a Democrat or Republican?
• 13:49
  Uh,
• 13:49
  Democrats usually lead this by a few points.
• 13:51
  They don't always lead it by 7 points,
• 13:54
  which they do here,
• 13:55
  42 to 35
• 13:56
  among registered voters.
• 13:58
  Uh,
• 13:58
  when we go to likely voters though,
• 14:00
  it goes to 49
• 14:01
  to 38,
• 14:02
  so an 11 point margin.
• 14:04
  If you look back to kind of,
• 14:06
  if you think of what is the last catastrophe for Republicans,
• 14:08
  you might say 2020 was a catastrophe.
• 14:10
  Joe Biden,
• 14:11
  no.
• 14:11
  It really 2018 was was the race where you saw real
• 14:16
  catastrophic levels or near catastrophic levels
• 14:19
  uh when it came to uh House and Senate uh types of outcomes
• 14:23
  um
• 14:24
  that was a I think a a D + 7
• 14:27
  maybe it was a D + 8
• 14:29
  so.
• 14:30
  What you see there is in the registered voters,
• 14:32
  Republicans a little bit better than that 2018 number,
• 14:35
  but if you go to likely voters,
• 14:36
  if that screen is correct,
• 14:37
  they're actually doing worse than 2018,
• 14:39
  which would be
• 14:40
  really,
• 14:40
  really bad.
• 14:41
  Let me give you another piece of evidence.
• 14:42
  Uh,
• 14:42
  again,
• 14:43
  we're going through the worst case scenario for Republicans right now.
• 14:47
  What does,
• 14:48
  what does the apocalypse look like?
• 14:50
  Why is it,
• 14:51
  why is there an argument for it?
• 14:53
  Charlie Cook Politics writes,
• 14:55
  when a nightmare scenario becomes the most likely scenario,
• 14:58
  uh,
• 14:58
  they talk about this as they never thought this
• 15:00
  could happen at the beginning of this election cycle.
• 15:02
  Let's start with the most likely scenario,
• 15:04
  what they say now,
• 15:05
  which is a really bad election for Republicans,
• 15:07
  losing 26 to 35 seats in the House
• 15:10
  that would cause
• 15:11
  them to lose control,
• 15:12
  of course,
• 15:12
  and either 4 or 5 House
• 15:15
  seats in the Senate.
• 15:16
  Um,
• 15:17
  that's an average outcome for,
• 15:18
  uh,
• 15:19
  post-World War II midterm elections.
• 15:20
  So
• 15:21
  if you say that that's like what is typically happened since World War II.
• 15:24
  That's it.
• 15:25
  Party in control loses 26 to 35
• 15:28
  and loses 4 to 5 Senate seats.
• 15:29
  It's a little more complicated than that.
• 15:31
  Second scenario,
• 15:32
  which is a merely a bad outcome,
• 15:34
  not quite as bad for Republicans,
• 15:36
  would be a loss of 15 to 25 House seats.
• 15:38
  Again,
• 15:38
  they lose the House easily in that scenario,
• 15:41
  um.
• 15:41
  Uh,
• 15:42
  there is an argument against this and that we are polarized
• 15:45
  and there are fewer seats in play.
• 15:47
  Uh,
• 15:48
  redistricting will help Republicans,
• 15:50
  uh,
• 15:51
  with this measure a little bit.
• 15:53
  I think it's,
• 15:53
  you know,
• 15:54
  maybe been a little bit overstated as to how much it's going to help.
• 15:57
  It's probably between 5 and 10 seats.
• 16:01
  That's good.
• 16:02
  Uh,
• 16:02
  if you're a Republican,
• 16:03
  it is an advantage,
• 16:04
  but it is not an insurmountable one,
• 16:06
  and Missouri,
• 16:07
  what just happened there
• 16:08
  will hurt that scenario a little bit.
• 16:10
  Uh,
• 16:10
  in the 7 elections held after Obama's first midterm election,
• 16:14
  the only time either party has lost more than 13 seats
• 16:17
  was the other Trump midterm election,
• 16:18
  as we spoke about in 2018 when Republicans lost 40.
• 16:21
  So since Obama we've been polarized enough that there's not that big
• 16:24
  swings,
• 16:25
  right?
• 16:27
  And that it gets a little complicated,
• 16:29
  but it is possible.
• 16:30
  The best case scenario,
• 16:31
  um,
• 16:32
  uh,
• 16:32
  or the worst case scenario they talk about
• 16:34
  a truly horrible scenario for Republicans would be a Senate loss of
• 16:38
  at least 6 seats along with the 35 seats in the House.
• 16:42
  That would be a 53-47
• 16:44
  advantage
• 16:45
  for
• 16:47
  Democrats,
• 16:47
  which is,
• 16:47
  yes,
• 16:48
  catastrophic,
• 16:49
  uh,
• 16:49
  does describe that.
• 16:50
  So that's kind of the,
• 16:51
  uh,
• 16:51
  the table setter here for some of this data now.
• 16:54
  Um,
• 16:55
  Patrick Ruffini is,
• 16:56
  uh,
• 16:56
  seen as maybe on the center right,
• 16:58
  uh,
• 16:58
  when he comes,
• 16:58
  uh,
• 16:59
  from politics,
• 16:59
  but he's,
• 17:00
  you know,
• 17:00
  again,
• 17:00
  a guy who looks at the data,
• 17:01
  I think really fairly.
• 17:03
  Uh,
• 17:03
  he has a,
• 17:03
  a subset called the intersection.
• 17:05
  And he said,
• 17:06
  what's the data driving
• 17:08
  Democratic optimism?
• 17:09
  He's got a lot of interesting points here,
• 17:11
  and,
• 17:11
  and let me give you a couple of his data points.
• 17:13
  Uh,
• 17:14
  you've heard this one,
• 17:15
  you know,
• 17:16
  batter,
• 17:16
  you know,
• 17:17
  batted around quite a bit.
• 17:18
  Donald Trump's net approval rating
• 17:20
  currently is -20.
• 17:22
  And you might say,
• 17:22
  well,
• 17:23
  I don't believe those polls,
• 17:24
  um,
• 17:24
  you know,
• 17:25
  uh,
• 17:25
  I think he's more popular than that,
• 17:26
  and he may be.
• 17:28
  The point though is that we're trying to do apples to apples
• 17:30
  here and look at the exact same polls from the same people generally
• 17:33
  and compare them and say,
• 17:34
  well,
• 17:34
  where has this level been in other times?
• 17:36
  At 20 -20,
• 17:38
  it is 8 points
• 17:40
  worse
• 17:41
  than Joe Biden in 2022.
• 17:43
  Uh,
• 17:44
  is 7 points worse than Trump heading into 2018.
• 17:47
  So 7 points worse than 2018,
• 17:49
  which was basically a catastrophe
• 17:51
  for Republicans.
• 17:52
  He is considerably south of that number right now.
• 17:56
  The economy,
• 17:56
  the polling there is really,
• 17:57
  really bad.
• 17:58
  In 2018,
• 17:59
  despite having good economic numbers,
• 18:01
  we saw really bad results for Republicans.
• 18:04
  75% of registered.
• 18:06
  Voters rated the national economy as good
• 18:08
  back in 2018 and still
• 18:10
  Republicans had really bad results.
• 18:12
  Um,
• 18:13
  today it's totally flipped.
• 18:14
  33% say it's good,
• 18:15
  64% say it is bad.
• 18:18
  One of the biggest things,
• 18:19
  um,
• 18:19
  and this is,
• 18:20
  this goes back to a couple of things,
• 18:22
  gas prices,
• 18:23
  the affordability.
• 18:24
  I mean Trump really promised big in the campaign,
• 18:26
  saying he was going to reverse.
• 18:28
  Inflation,
• 18:29
  not just shrink the rate of it,
• 18:31
  but in reverse it.
• 18:33
  Very,
• 18:33
  very difficult,
• 18:34
  borderline impossible to do.
• 18:35
  Certainly the way the government is spending right now,
• 18:36
  it's impossible to do.
• 18:38
  Uh,
• 18:38
  so the inflation and affordability have been real challenges.
• 18:41
  The housing thing hasn't turned around.
• 18:42
  Tariffs have helped raise prices as well.
• 18:44
  It certainly have been a headline issue on that.
• 18:46
  And then of course the war
• 18:47
  in Iran has not helped with gas prices.
• 18:50
  All that has been said is
• 18:51
  Trump has taken
• 18:52
  one of his biggest strengths
• 18:54
  that existed the entire 2016 campaign.
• 18:57
  He's run a totally different.
• 18:59
  Uh,
• 19:00
  type of economic presidency.
• 19:01
  He did not really stick to a lot of the things that he did
• 19:04
  in that first term when it comes to economics and
• 19:08
  for whatever you think the validity of that is,
• 19:10
  whatever you think the,
• 19:11
  the outcome of that is,
• 19:12
  it has not been popular
• 19:14
  and it has not worked in a way,
• 19:16
  at least politically,
• 19:17
  to lead to a positive outcome in 2026,
• 19:21
  at least so far.
• 19:22
  Um,
• 19:23
  so you kind of look at that stuff and you say,
• 19:25
  oh,
• 19:25
  well,
• 19:26
  that,
• 19:26
  that does seem to be
• 19:28
  a significant
• 19:29
  issue
• 19:30
  for Trump.
• 19:30
  Let me go to this one.
• 19:31
  This is decalibrate a sub-stack that is,
• 19:33
  uh,
• 19:34
  uh,
• 19:34
  has,
• 19:35
  uh,
• 19:35
  probably the most negative view for Republicans
• 19:37
  on this particular race.
• 19:39
  The data unambiguously
• 19:41
  forecasts a blue wave.
• 19:43
  Let me go through some of this.
• 19:44
  And you may remember
• 19:46
  the red wave that was supposed to come in 2022.
• 19:48
  There's some data that supported that,
• 19:50
  but there was some data that questioned it as well.
• 19:52
  The polling wasn't nearly as wide as it is now.
• 19:54
  I mean,
• 19:54
  it,
• 19:55
  you know,
• 19:55
  it was different,
• 19:56
  but the,
• 19:57
  you know,
• 19:57
  a lot of the,
• 19:58
  uh,
• 19:59
  the,
• 19:59
  the,
• 19:59
  the sort of pundits believed there was going to be a red wave
• 20:02
  there.
• 20:03
  I was,
• 20:03
  as you remember from that coverage,
• 20:05
  probably,
• 20:05
  I was much more skeptical of that.
• 20:06
  I,
• 20:07
  I,
• 20:07
  you know,
• 20:07
  maybe it's just my general pessimism as a guy who's generally Conservative,
• 20:11
  I,
• 20:11
  you know,
• 20:12
  didn't want,
• 20:12
  uh,
• 20:13
  the left wing of the,
• 20:14
  uh,
• 20:14
  taking over the House and Senate,
• 20:16
  or,
• 20:16
  uh,
• 20:17
  I wanted the Republicans to be able to do well in that election,
• 20:20
  um,
• 20:20
  you know,
• 20:20
  that's just my personal,
• 20:21
  uh,
• 20:22
  thing,
• 20:22
  but,
• 20:22
  you know,
• 20:22
  judging it fairly,
• 20:23
  I didn't think that that was going to happen.
• 20:25
  Um,
• 20:26
  here's some of the data that supports this.
• 20:27
  This is from,
• 20:28
  uh,
• 20:28
  Ethan Chen.
• 20:29
  Uh,
• 20:29
  uh,
• 20:29
  the media seems reluctant to acknowledge that this blue wave is here,
• 20:33
  he says.
• 20:34
  Uh,
• 20:34
  personally,
• 20:34
  I suspect three main reasons for that.
• 20:36
  Why?
• 20:37
  What,
• 20:37
  what,
• 20:37
  what are the,
• 20:38
  what's the doubt?
• 20:38
  Polls underestimated Republicans in 2016,
• 20:41
  2020,
• 20:41
  and 2024,
• 20:42
  as he admits and acknowledges
• 20:44
  that did happen.
• 20:44
  The media fears a GOP firestorm
• 20:46
  if they underestimate them again.
• 20:48
  Number 2,
• 20:49
  the media coverage widely assumed a red wave throughout the 2022 midterms
• 20:54
  for many similar reasons.
• 20:55
  One would expect a blue ray in 2026,
• 20:57
  yet the result was merely a red ripple.
• 20:59
  There were some gains.
• 21:00
  I mean,
• 21:00
  they did take the House,
• 21:01
  which was the basic,
• 21:02
  the baseline they needed to do.
• 21:03
  Uh,
• 21:04
  and expert forecasters like the Cook Political Report,
• 21:06
  we talked about him earlier,
• 21:07
  have erroneously issued ratings that make it appear
• 21:10
  like the election is close.
• 21:12
  He goes on to say,
• 21:13
  we do have strong predictors of the upcoming election.
• 21:16
  And those predictors almost unanimously predicted
• 21:19
  the red ripple election in 2022,
• 21:21
  and the same predictors now fully unanimously forecast the same thing for 2026.
• 21:27
  An enormous blue wave,
• 21:28
  possibly the biggest since 2008,
• 21:31
  is crashing onshore.
• 21:33
  What he says to to to back this
• 21:36
  2008,
• 21:37
  the average,
• 21:37
  uh,
• 21:38
  uh,
• 21:38
  generic ballot polls have been very accurate,
• 21:40
  only overestimating Democrats by an average of 0.8 points.
• 21:43
  In 2022,
• 21:44
  general ballot election nailed the House vote at Republicans plus one.
• 21:49
  Unlike what the media may have believed,
• 21:51
  the generic ballot clearly forecasted a red ripple election.
• 21:54
  By contrast,
• 21:55
  the current generic ballot
• 21:56
  has Democrats leading
• 21:57
  by nearly 7%.
• 22:00
  So
• 22:00
  you look at that and then you say,
• 22:01
  OK,
• 22:02
  well,
• 22:02
  it's 7%.
• 22:03
  But if you go into the likely voter screen,
• 22:05
  it may be screen,
• 22:06
  it may even be higher than that.
• 22:08
  You can see where he's coming from on this.
• 22:10
  Uh,
• 22:11
  also talks about Nate Silver's analysis.
• 22:12
  If polls were all adjusted to be of likely voters,
• 22:15
  that generic ballot average would move from
• 22:17
  Democrats plus 6.6 to Democrats plus 8.1.
• 22:21
  This puts this in a
• 22:23
  massive,
• 22:24
  massive landslide category,
• 22:25
  at least where we're talking about 2018,
• 22:27
  which was pretty bad for Republicans.
• 22:30
  In the 35 states with sufficient
• 22:31
  partisan primary data,
• 22:33
  Democrats are projected to outvote Republicans
• 22:35
  by 12 to 13%.
• 22:37
  This is the most heavily lopsided primary turnout in decades.
• 22:41
  That is a way to kind of measure the enthusiasm.
• 22:43
  How passionately are you out there
• 22:45
  looking for your person?
• 22:46
  Now,
• 22:47
  you're gonna go out there to a primary.
• 22:48
  Now,
• 22:49
  some of this is tough to,
• 22:50
  to download.
• 22:51
  They do get rid of like people who are running in uncontested races,
• 22:54
  but there are also a lot of races where they're just,
• 22:55
  they might not be uncontested,
• 22:57
  but they're kind of uncontested.
• 22:58
  I haven't done.
• 23:00
  Uh,
• 23:00
  the,
• 23:00
  the,
• 23:01
  the math on
• 23:02
  how,
• 23:02
  you know,
• 23:02
  if that
• 23:03
  really is equal,
• 23:05
  uh,
• 23:06
  this time,
• 23:06
  um,
• 23:07
  you know.
• 23:08
  It can be one of those things where if you have,
• 23:10
  you know,
• 23:11
  like for example,
• 23:11
  last night in,
• 23:12
  in New,
• 23:12
  uh,
• 23:13
  New Hampshire,
• 23:13
  we'll get into this in a minute,
• 23:14
  uh,
• 23:14
  Sununu versus Brown.
• 23:16
  Um,
• 23:16
  Sununu versus Brown was supposed to be a competitive election,
• 23:20
  and then Sununu wound up absolutely wiping the floor with the guy.
• 23:23
  Does that mean that if there wasn't a huge turnout there that,
• 23:26
  that people were like,
• 23:26
  oh gosh,
• 23:27
  they don't care about Republicans,
• 23:28
  or does that mean,
• 23:29
  OK,
• 23:29
  this was already decided months ago,
• 23:30
  we've seen this in the polling,
• 23:31
  I'm not even gonna bother.
• 23:33
  There's some of that going on.
• 23:34
  There's been a lot of fights on the Democratic side,
• 23:36
  and,
• 23:36
  and that may have something to do with their primary outcome,
• 23:38
  but it certainly doesn't explain all of it.
• 23:40
  Um,
• 23:41
  the combined partisan turnout in these primaries have been
• 23:43
  extremely predictive of midterm general elections in the past,
• 23:47
  uh,
• 23:47
  and so that is obviously looking very,
• 23:49
  very good for Democrats right now.
• 23:51
  There's also something that I thought was interesting.
• 23:53
  I,
• 23:53
  I've never seen this one before,
• 23:55
  uh,
• 23:55
  the Washington primary.
• 23:56
  Um,
• 23:57
  uh,
• 23:57
  this is something that,
• 23:58
  uh,
• 23:58
  apparently he wrote about a couple of weeks ago,
• 24:00
  but the Washington primary.
• 24:02
  It is interesting.
• 24:03
  The Washington,
• 24:04
  we talked about this when it happened,
• 24:06
  there's they have a top two primary system,
• 24:08
  so you run,
• 24:09
  everyone runs,
• 24:09
  uh,
• 24:10
  any party they want,
• 24:11
  and instead of picking a Republican winner or Democratic winner,
• 24:13
  they just pick the top two.
• 24:15
  And so when that happens,
• 24:16
  um,
• 24:17
  they say it's very predictive of how Washington winds up voting,
• 24:21
  uh,
• 24:21
  Washington State,
• 24:22
  but oddly it's also fairly predictive of what happens nationwide,
• 24:26
  um,
• 24:26
  to give you some context on that.
• 24:28
  Um,
• 24:29
  uh,
• 24:29
  last,
• 24:30
  this is 20 in 2024,
• 24:32
  which was,
• 24:33
  you'd say a,
• 24:33
  uh,
• 24:34
  a.
• 24:35
  Republican leaning year.
• 24:36
  Remember,
• 24:37
  Republicans,
• 24:37
  a lot of people remember this as a big wave.
• 24:40
  2024 was not a big wave.
• 24:41
  2024 was a race where Donald Trump had seven swing states.
• 24:45
  He won all seven of them,
• 24:47
  um,
• 24:47
  but,
• 24:48
  uh,
• 24:48
  the closest one of those seven was like,
• 24:50
  uh,
• 24:51
  the,
• 24:52
  he could have lost the election by losing states that were like a point,
• 24:55
  a point and a half difference,
• 24:56
  right?
• 24:57
  So.
• 24:57
  It,
• 24:58
  while
• 24:59
  he swept those states and that was impressive,
• 25:01
  it wasn't a wave there,
• 25:02
  and it's easier to even,
• 25:03
  you don't have to,
• 25:04
  to get into that analysis when you just look at the House,
• 25:06
  right?
• 25:06
  The Republicans have barely won the House.
• 25:08
  They won about 3 or 4 seats,
• 25:09
  right?
• 25:09
  They're,
• 25:09
  they're barely holding on to the House.
• 25:11
  And so that was a very close election that went the Republicans' way.
• 25:16
  The Washington primary then
• 25:18
  had uh a 10 point,
• 25:21
  um,
• 25:21
  or 17 point um
• 25:23
  Democratic advantage in Washington.
• 25:24
  So if you kind of do the math here,
• 25:26
  17 point
• 25:27
  Democratic
• 25:28
  advantage in,
• 25:28
  in,
• 25:29
  uh,
• 25:29
  in Washington state
• 25:31
  in this theory,
• 25:31
  this is one I don't,
• 25:33
  again,
• 25:33
  I'm explaining you his theory.
• 25:34
  I haven't,
• 25:35
  you know,
• 25:35
  gone through all the checking myself on this,
• 25:37
  but that equals roughly a fair
• 25:39
  race,
• 25:39
  maybe a slight Republican advantage.
• 25:43
  That same measure this time is +27
• 25:46
  for Democrats,
• 25:47
  a 10 point move
• 25:49
  which would
• 25:49
  make you believe there's a chance that a
• 25:52
  10 point,
• 25:52
  it aligns almost exactly with that likely voter,
• 25:55
  um,
• 25:55
  uh,
• 25:56
  screen
• 25:56
  would get you to a 10 point advantage on the generic ballot
• 25:59
  for Democrats.
• 26:01
  If you're a Republican,
• 26:02
  that was really freaking depressing.
• 26:04
  Uh,
• 26:04
  if you're a conservative,
• 26:05
  that's really depressing.
• 26:07
  Um,
• 26:07
  that doesn't mean it's going to happen.
• 26:09
  It's just
• 26:10
  one of the outlying possibilities.
• 26:12
  When I look at this,
• 26:12
  I look at,
• 26:13
  if you kind of take,
• 26:14
  uh,
• 26:14
  you know,
• 26:14
  0 to 100,
• 26:15
  what are,
• 26:15
  what are the chances of happening?
• 26:17
  There's kind of 10% chance on one side and a 10% chance
• 26:19
  on the other side of really good things happening for Republicans,
• 26:22
  really bad things happening for Republicans.
• 26:24
  This is the 10% really bad.
• 26:25
  It should be on your radar because it is not an impossibility.
• 26:28
  This is not like in 2024 or,
• 26:31
  you know,
• 26:31
  2010,
• 26:32
  for example,
• 26:33
  where like,
• 26:33
  oh gosh,
• 26:34
  well,
• 26:34
  what will happen?
• 26:34
  Will Republicans lose 45 seats in the House?
• 26:37
  There's no chance that was happening.
• 26:38
  In fact,
• 26:38
  they had the biggest wave election the opposite way in a century.
• 26:42
  This is a situation where what's on the table,
• 26:45
  what's being discussed,
• 26:46
  what's in,
• 26:47
  uh,
• 26:47
  you know,
• 26:47
  the Overton window of real possibilities,
• 26:50
  if you will,
• 26:51
  is everything from a catastrophic Republican
• 26:54
  to a day
• 26:55
  to a small Republican win.
• 26:59
  That's kind of the range.
• 27:02
  There's not really a scenario here outside of,
• 27:04
  like,
• 27:04
  I don't,
• 27:05
  you know,
• 27:05
  you could come up with a scenario.
• 27:06
  I mean,
• 27:06
  we're,
• 27:06
  we're,
• 27:07
  we're,
• 27:07
  you know,
• 27:07
  we're talking about the,
• 27:08
  it's the week of 9/11,
• 27:09
  right?
• 27:10
  You know,
• 27:10
  God forbid some terrible thing happens that unites the country,
• 27:13
  who knows what,
• 27:14
  what goes on in an election like that.
• 27:15
  That's always unpredictable.
• 27:16
  Um,
• 27:17
  but
• 27:17
  when you're talking about relatively normal times,
• 27:20
  those the range of,
• 27:21
  of normal possibilities.
• 27:23
  Important to know that,
• 27:24
  important to understand the arguments of the outliers,
• 27:26
  and important to position yourself,
• 27:27
  position yourself in a way
• 27:29
  where you're taking advantage of a lot of those opportunities.
• 27:31
  OK.
• 27:32
  That's the bad news.
• 27:33
  Let's go uh a little bit further and look for an opportunity
• 27:36
  amongst that bad news potentially.
• 27:38
  And give you our candidate countdown candidate of the
• 27:40
  day here coming up in just a second.
• 27:42
  A reminder,
• 27:43
  if you want that,
• 27:44
  uh,
• 27:44
  if you want to get the live stream of the show,
• 27:45
  if you want the,
• 27:46
  uh,
• 27:47
  members only
• 27:48
  chat,
• 27:49
  if you want the full prediction,
• 27:51
  uh,
• 27:52
  predictable model of the election which is coming
• 27:54
  out later this week or early next week,
• 27:55
  I think either Friday or Monday.
• 27:57
  Um,
• 27:57
  where you can see
• 27:58
  not only what everyone's saying,
• 28:00
  what the consensus is,
• 28:01
  but also
• 28:02
  where the prediction markets and where are the
• 28:03
  gaps between those two to look for opportunities.
• 28:05
  That's all part of your subscription.
• 28:07
  We're trying to get you into a position where you have all
• 28:09
  the information that you need to have a really profitable November.
• 28:12
  So far we've had a great
• 28:13
  run.
• 28:14
  We think that we can continue that.
• 28:15
  Maybe we can continue that in Rhode Island tonight.
• 28:18
  Um,
• 28:18
  we did that in,
• 28:18
  in,
• 28:19
  uh,
• 28:19
  New Hampshire last night,
• 28:20
  but.
• 28:21
  It's important for you to have these tools if you're trading these markets.
• 28:24
  I think it'd be a great,
• 28:25
  uh,
• 28:26
  great group for you to be a part of.
• 28:27
  Go to predictableShow.com,
• 28:29
  predictableShow.com.
• 28:30
  Sign up for the premium tier
• 28:32
  and join us as we,
• 28:33
  uh,
• 28:33
  accelerate.
• 28:34
  We're getting closer and closer.
• 28:35
  It's time to get those prediction market picks in for November
• 28:39
  and we will go through another one of those
• 28:40
  next.
• 29:00
  Every single day,
• 29:02
  we are going to be giving you a new candidate as part
• 29:05
  of candidate countdown where we feature a race where we think there's opportunity
• 29:09
  for you to get some profit.
• 29:12
  And we are looking at a race today.
• 29:17
  Here we go.
• 29:17
  Candidate countdown 55 days until the election.
• 29:20
  Who is our candidate going to be today?
• 29:27
  Tina Kotchek,
• 29:28
  there she is.
• 29:30
  Governor Dean,
• 29:31
  I wanted to see who,
• 29:32
  how,
• 29:32
  who would wait longer
• 29:34
  where I could just sit here
• 29:36
  and see if they'd actually press the button for the next one.
• 29:38
  OK,
• 29:38
  I think they were waiting for me to say it,
• 29:39
  but anyway,
• 29:40
  the whole point is Tina Kottek is our,
• 29:41
  uh,
• 29:42
  is our,
• 29:42
  uh,
• 29:42
  candidate countdown candidate today,
• 29:44
  and it's an interesting race because she is,
• 29:46
  uh,
• 29:47
  you know.
• 29:48
  There's an argument to be made both ways,
• 29:50
  and I,
• 29:50
  I try to do this with all these,
• 29:51
  uh,
• 29:51
  candidate countdowns,
• 29:52
  the argument for argument against.
• 29:53
  Let's start with the argument,
• 29:54
  uh,
• 29:55
  uh,
• 29:55
  for,
• 29:56
  uh,
• 29:56
  against what we're saying here,
• 29:58
  and what we're saying here
• 29:59
  is that Tina Kottek is a good
• 30:01
  candidate,
• 30:02
  uh,
• 30:02
  to,
• 30:02
  uh,
• 30:03
  potentially put some,
• 30:04
  uh,
• 30:04
  of your hard earned cash
• 30:06
  on,
• 30:06
  at least in my opinion.
• 30:07
  I will,
• 30:08
  I am doing it.
• 30:09
  I already have done it,
• 30:10
  um,
• 30:10
  and,
• 30:11
  and let me give you a quick outline first.
• 30:12
  Let me give you the case against my position first though.
• 30:15
  So she's going against Christine Drazen.
• 30:17
  Uh,
• 30:17
  who,
• 30:18
  uh,
• 30:18
  is a pretty good candidate actually and had a very close race
• 30:22
  with her last time.
• 30:23
  They ran against each other back in 2022.
• 30:25
  This is what that race looked like.
• 30:26
  Uh,
• 30:27
  Kotak had 47% of the vote.
• 30:29
  Christine Drazen
• 30:31
  at 43.59%
• 30:34
  of the vote.
• 30:35
  And then you see there,
• 30:35
  uh,
• 30:36
  Betsy Johnson in third place with 8.63%.
• 30:38
  So it's a pretty close race,
• 30:39
  and you think of Oregon
• 30:41
  as a governor.
• 30:42
  A 4-point race,
• 30:43
  pretty close.
• 30:44
  Uh,
• 30:44
  Drazen is not some random person.
• 30:46
  She's not some unknown challenger.
• 30:48
  She's well known in the state from this previous run,
• 30:51
  and she has been,
• 30:51
  uh,
• 30:52
  you know,
• 30:52
  uh,
• 30:53
  in the legislature for a while.
• 30:54
  People know who she is.
• 30:55
  Um,
• 30:56
  Kotchek is not great either,
• 30:58
  to be honest with you.
• 30:58
  It's not like she's some superhero.
• 31:00
  Her approval ratings are
• 31:02
  OK.
• 31:03
  Uh,
• 31:03
  Morning Consult had it at 48% approved,
• 31:06
  42% disapprove.
• 31:09
  Uh,
• 31:09
  there was
• 31:10
  another internal poll that came out,
• 31:11
  uh,
• 31:12
  that had her underwater by 19 points.
• 31:15
  It was an internal poll though.
• 31:16
  I always take that,
• 31:16
  uh,
• 31:17
  with a grain of salt.
• 31:18
  Uh,
• 31:18
  same,
• 31:19
  uh,
• 31:19
  that same poll,
• 31:20
  uh,
• 31:21
  you know,
• 31:21
  has showed,
• 31:22
  uh,
• 31:22
  Kottech leading,
• 31:23
  um,
• 31:24
  uh,
• 31:25
  or excuse me,
• 31:25
  Drazen leading Kottech
• 31:27
  by
• 31:28
  various amounts.
• 31:28
  Let me show you,
• 31:29
  this is what the New York Times has for polling in this race.
• 31:32
  Um,
• 31:33
  and you see,
• 31:34
  uh,
• 31:34
  I'm gonna show you the,
• 31:34
  the right column there.
• 31:35
  Drazen plus 4,
• 31:37
  up 48 to 44,
• 31:38
  uh,
• 31:39
  Dra and Drazen 45,
• 31:41
  Kotte 45,
• 31:43
  uh,
• 31:43
  that goes back to May.
• 31:44
  Uh,
• 31:45
  Chris Dudley,
• 31:45
  who was also running at one point,
• 31:47
  um,
• 31:48
  had himself up by 4 points over Kotte.
• 31:51
  What I would just highlight though here is this,
• 31:53
  is the middle column,
• 31:54
  which is
• 31:55
  all of these,
• 31:56
  all of these polls
• 31:58
  are polls that are,
• 32:00
  um,
• 32:00
  sponsored by Republicans.
• 32:02
  And
• 32:03
  that doesn't mean you'd completely throw them out,
• 32:05
  um,
• 32:06
  but you can definitely
• 32:07
  raise a little eyebrow of skepticism against racism
• 32:11
  whenever there's a,
• 32:11
  uh,
• 32:12
  an internal poll,
• 32:13
  especially,
• 32:13
  but even a sponsored poll like this,
• 32:16
  you just don't know what the backstory is and you wanna be very,
• 32:18
  very careful.
• 32:19
  So there's not really any polling showing this outside of this internal stuff,
• 32:23
  which it's just hard to believe.
• 32:24
  Um,
• 32:25
  let me give you a couple more things on this and the argument against,
• 32:28
  uh,
• 32:29
  Kotak,
• 32:29
  um.
• 32:31
  Uh,
• 32:31
  there,
• 32:32
  this is probably the best argument,
• 32:33
  uh,
• 32:33
  for Jason,
• 32:34
  which is Betsy Johnson isn't running.
• 32:36
  She was the third candidate and was running as a cent
• 32:38
  like in between these two candidates as a quote unquote centrist,
• 32:42
  uh,
• 32:42
  8.6% of the vote.
• 32:44
  That vote could be up for grabs if it goes Jason's way,
• 32:46
  you know,
• 32:46
  who knows,
• 32:47
  maybe,
• 32:47
  maybe,
• 32:48
  uh,
• 32:49
  also,
• 32:49
  you know,
• 32:49
  she,
• 32:50
  uh,
• 32:50
  you know,
• 32:51
  doesn't,
• 32:51
  she wasn't responsible for the state of Oregon for people who are not happy there,
• 32:55
  and there's a lot of them,
• 32:56
  um.
• 32:57
  And Democratic voter registration has actually come down a little bit,
• 33:00
  uh,
• 33:01
  from 283,000 of a gap between Democrats and Republicans to 246,000.
• 33:07
  However,
• 33:07
  I'm still very bullish on Kotak.
• 33:10
  Because,
• 33:11
  you know,
• 33:11
  Oregon is
• 33:13
  Oregon.
• 33:15
  You know Oregon,
• 33:15
  right?
• 33:16
  Oregon is a state that does not really elect statewide Republicans.
• 33:20
  That's just not really a thing at this point.
• 33:23
  Um,
• 33:23
  though occasionally the races are close,
• 33:26
  but no Republican has won the governor's office since 1982.
• 33:31
  So it's been a while.
• 33:33
  This is not a state that's particularly competitive.
• 33:35
  Oddly,
• 33:35
  there have been close calls for Democrats in the state,
• 33:38
  but no one's been able to win since 1982.
• 33:41
  The other thing is a 4 point lead for Kottech in 2022
• 33:44
  sounds like a close race,
• 33:45
  and it was pretty close.
• 33:47
  But 2022 was a pretty good year
• 33:49
  for Republicans.
• 33:50
  We talked about it as the red ripple year,
• 33:52
  but a,
• 33:52
  you know,
• 33:53
  not a,
• 33:54
  not a waif,
• 33:54
  but a Republican leaning year that if you think about what's going on here,
• 33:58
  the state of Oregon has just been shut down
• 34:01
  for
• 34:02
  basically two years because of COVID.
• 34:04
  You're dealing with all the inflation.
• 34:06
  It is not a good time
• 34:08
  necessarily to be running as a Democrat.
• 34:10
  Kotex still wins that race by 4.
• 34:13
  We're in a totally different environment right now.
• 34:16
  And what I was talking about with this worst-case scenario
• 34:18
  is you think about,
• 34:20
  even if it's not a worst-case scenario,
• 34:21
  you're talking about a good Democratic year.
• 34:24
  It's always good for you to kind of like protect yourself on that side.
• 34:27
  When you have
• 34:28
  a big,
• 34:29
  uh,
• 34:29
  you know,
• 34:30
  uh,
• 34:31
  a,
• 34:31
  a big cushion,
• 34:32
  someone in a bright red state.
• 34:34
  Uh,
• 34:34
  that people are saying maybe they're in trouble.
• 34:37
  You probably still have enough cushion to
• 34:39
  get through even a Republican catastrophe.
• 34:41
  But the idea that Kottech would lose this race in this environment,
• 34:45
  what,
• 34:45
  what looks like a really bad one for Republicans,
• 34:49
  is just really hard for me to believe.
• 34:51
  Uh,
• 34:51
  you know,
• 34:51
  that
• 34:52
  this is the time that Oregon's gonna say,
• 34:54
  you know what,
• 34:54
  let's go with the Republican.
• 34:56
  It just seems very,
• 34:57
  very
• 34:58
  out of sorts for me.
• 35:00
  Um,
• 35:00
  Kotak has a major cash advantage,
• 35:02
  has about 3 times the amount of money in the bank,
• 35:05
  as Christine Drazen,
• 35:06
  as we get closer
• 35:06
  to this race.
• 35:08
  Um,
• 35:09
  Democrats still have a,
• 35:10
  a,
• 35:10
  a,
• 35:10
  a wide advantage even though it's a little bit smaller than it used to be,
• 35:13
  a wide advantage on,
• 35:14
  on voter registration.
• 35:16
  Um,
• 35:16
  and
• 35:17
  if you look at the difference in the voter registration,
• 35:19
  it's not necessarily.
• 35:20
  Um,
• 35:21
  that
• 35:22
  tons and tons of Republicans
• 35:24
  have come to the table.
• 35:25
  What we've seen is more independents,
• 35:27
  so there's been a few 1000 more,
• 35:28
  uh,
• 35:29
  Democrats,
• 35:29
  or a few 1000 fewer Democrats,
• 35:31
  a few 1000 more Republicans,
• 35:32
  but really the difference is a lot more independents,
• 35:34
  which again independents in Oregon tend to vote more towards the left,
• 35:38
  and of course Kotak is the incumbent there.
• 35:40
  So
• 35:40
  with all that being said,
• 35:42
  I think there's value in in,
• 35:44
  uh,
• 35:44
  in Tina Kotak.
• 35:45
  I've been buying her in the,
• 35:46
  uh,
• 35:47
  I hate it's always weird to say that you've been buying a person.
• 35:50
  Uh,
• 35:50
  they,
• 35:50
  they got rid of that a while ago.
• 35:51
  I think it was a good change.
• 35:53
  Um,
• 35:53
  but,
• 35:53
  uh,
• 35:54
  so you go,
• 35:54
  here's a,
• 35:55
  here's the,
• 35:56
  uh,
• 35:56
  here's the graph for,
• 35:57
  uh,
• 35:57
  the Kochek race.
• 35:58
  You see that,
• 35:59
  now,
• 35:59
  it's actually been rising quite a bit.
• 36:01
  You kind of see,
• 36:02
  uh,
• 36:02
  Adam,
• 36:03
  bring me into about a month or so on this chart here.
• 36:05
  We're looking at a Calci chart.
• 36:07
  Uh,
• 36:07
  and you go back,
• 36:08
  just give me a quick scan of this,
• 36:10
  uh,
• 36:10
  from the beginning.
• 36:11
  Uh,
• 36:11
  if you go back,
• 36:11
  you can see.
• 36:13
  Uh,
• 36:13
  where it was,
• 36:14
  it was 89,
• 36:14
  and it started,
• 36:15
  there were some times where it fell
• 36:17
  here a little bit,
• 36:18
  uh,
• 36:18
  84,
• 36:19
  85 in there and kind of cruises up to 86,
• 36:23
  uh,
• 36:23
  87.
• 36:24
  Now I'll give you a bit of all,
• 36:25
  uh,
• 36:25
  again here.
• 36:26
  We're at 89,
• 36:27
  by the way,
• 36:27
  for Kottech to win,
• 36:28
  but that's 11%.
• 36:29
  Go back to some of those gaps back in,
• 36:31
  uh,
• 36:31
  the end of the year,
• 36:32
  um,
• 36:33
  maybe back in December 2025.
• 36:35
  Uh,
• 36:36
  you could see some low points there where she was down in the 8,
• 36:39
  in the low 80s.
• 36:40
  I really bought her more in the,
• 36:42
  in the mid 80s,
• 36:43
  uh,
• 36:44
  and,
• 36:44
  and,
• 36:44
  and I'm continuing to buy her up into 88 and 89 range.
• 36:47
  I still think there's value there.
• 36:48
  I think she's more like 97,
• 36:50
  98% chance to win this race.
• 36:52
  Uh,
• 36:52
  I think there is value here on Kottech.
• 36:54
  Remember,
• 36:55
  you're talking about,
• 36:56
  uh,
• 36:56
  even if you get in right now at 89,
• 36:57
  that's 11%,
• 36:59
  uh,
• 36:59
  89,
• 36:59
  you know,
• 37:00
  11% gain on every 89 cents that you invest.
• 37:04
  So you're talking,
• 37:05
  you know,
• 37:05
  what,
• 37:05
  13,
• 37:06
  14% profit
• 37:08
  over 54 days.
• 37:10
  By the way,
• 37:10
  we did,
• 37:10
  we did solve the 54 days thing.
• 37:12
  We're saying 55 days because we're saying
• 37:15
  like the full day.
• 37:16
  They have on their counter it's like 54 days,
• 37:18
  11 hours,
• 37:19
  you know,
• 37:19
  whatever the time is,
• 37:20
  so that's,
• 37:21
  that was the discrepancy why they say 54 and we say 55 days.
• 37:24
  Um,
• 37:24
  anyway,
• 37:25
  long story short,
• 37:26
  I think this is a good one.
• 37:27
  Tina Kotak,
• 37:28
  especially if you can get her,
• 37:29
  if,
• 37:29
  if,
• 37:29
  if something happens,
• 37:30
  if a new poll comes out,
• 37:32
  shows the race to be pretty close,
• 37:34
  you may see a fall in this,
• 37:35
  and that's why we keep,
• 37:36
  we don't like
• 37:37
  put all of our money in,
• 37:38
  uh,
• 37:38
  at the beginning,
• 37:39
  we wanna look for these opportunities when things happen in a race.
• 37:42
  Where it hasn't changed our view on it,
• 37:44
  where you get to grab a little bit lower,
• 37:46
  better pricing
• 37:47
  for contracts like this and 8,
• 37:49
  I mean,
• 37:50
  I'm thrilled getting
• 37:51
  Tina Kotak at 82,
• 37:52
  83,
• 37:52
  84,
• 37:53
  85.
• 37:53
  Like I think that's a great value.
• 37:55
  I think 89 is still some value,
• 37:57
  and you can even take her into the low 90s and not be
• 37:59
  angry at yourself.
• 38:01
  Um,
• 38:01
  so there's some opportunity there
• 38:03
  and again with the,
• 38:04
  with the,
• 38:05
  the climate,
• 38:06
  the way it's set up,
• 38:07
  you know,
• 38:08
  if you wanna be safe.
• 38:10
  You,
• 38:10
  you kind of can go toward those candidates
• 38:13
  that are,
• 38:13
  uh,
• 38:14
  on the Democratic side,
• 38:16
  right?
• 38:16
  Like the,
• 38:16
  the,
• 38:17
  the outlying possibilities that way
• 38:19
  if you have a Democrat who probably should win by 8 points,
• 38:22
  um,
• 38:23
  they might win by 12 or 13.
• 38:25
  And uh if they,
• 38:26
  if it goes the opposite way,
• 38:27
  you still have cushion.
• 38:28
  Maybe the Democrats win by 2 or 3.
• 38:30
  So you still have,
• 38:31
  you wanna have range of outcomes where
• 38:33
  your range is always on the winning side.
• 38:35
  Every outcome basically
• 38:37
  without,
• 38:38
  you know,
• 38:38
  95% of the outcomes
• 38:40
  get to a situation where you're happy with it
• 38:42
  and you're going to profit.
• 38:43
  So
• 38:43
  our second candidate of the day,
• 38:46
  Democrat this time,
• 38:46
  Tina Kottek
• 38:48
  from.
• 38:49
  Oregon.
• 38:50
  Uh,
• 38:50
  so make sure to,
• 38:51
  uh,
• 38:51
  check that out and,
• 38:52
  uh,
• 38:52
  give me your opinion.
• 38:53
  Do you think it's a terrible pick?
• 38:54
  Do you think it's a good pick?
• 38:55
  Do you think that something else is gonna happen?
• 38:56
  Let me know.
• 38:57
  Uh,
• 38:57
  predictableShow.com,
• 38:58
  drop it in the chat,
• 38:59
  predictableShow.com.
• 39:00
  Back in a second.
• 39:14
  We are in the middle of,
• 39:14
  uh,
• 39:15
  still primary season.
• 39:15
  I mean,
• 39:16
  not the middle of it,
• 39:16
  we're at the very end of it,
• 39:17
  but there was one a primary last night,
• 39:19
  New Hampshire,
• 39:20
  uh,
• 39:20
  takeaways from the New Hampshire primaries and the under the radar Senate race.
• 39:24
  This is an interesting under the radar race because
• 39:27
  Sununu in New Hampshire,
• 39:30
  very well-known name in New Hampshire,
• 39:32
  part of a,
• 39:32
  what you might call a
• 39:34
  political dynasty of sorts,
• 39:36
  uh,
• 39:36
  as many,
• 39:37
  many Sununus have won and lost races,
• 39:39
  uh,
• 39:40
  around New Hampshire over the years.
• 39:41
  Uh,
• 39:42
  Sununu,
• 39:43
  I think would be,
• 39:43
  it would be
• 39:44
  18 years between Senate terms if he were to win this.
• 39:47
  It's something like that,
• 39:48
  some really long time,
• 39:49
  um,
• 39:50
  but he,
• 39:50
  uh,
• 39:51
  easily won in his primary.
• 39:52
  This was the race I had
• 39:53
  by far the most interest in as far as,
• 39:56
  uh,
• 39:56
  prediction markets go.
• 39:57
  Did very,
• 39:58
  very well in this one.
• 39:59
  We had Sununu relatively early.
• 40:00
  Can we do have the market for this?
• 40:02
  Uh,
• 40:02
  this is what it looks like.
• 40:03
  You could see the rise here,
• 40:04
  and this is one of the reasons we try to catch these races early,
• 40:07
  because even though there was a wide,
• 40:08
  go back to,
• 40:08
  let's say,
• 40:09
  the beginning of the year,
• 40:10
  uh,
• 40:10
  roughly December,
• 40:12
  you see in here you got an 81% chance for Sunudu to win,
• 40:15
  Brown at 12%.
• 40:16
  Um,
• 40:16
  and as you go on,
• 40:18
  this just slowly increases and increases,
• 40:20
  increases.
• 40:21
  This is essentially what we're trying to catch for you in November right now.
• 40:24
  This is why we're doing a Tina Kottek because Tina Kottek
• 40:27
  in
• 40:28
  November or early November is probably going to be
• 40:31
  in the area that you're looking at right now,
• 40:32
  95 or 94% chance to win.
• 40:35
  We're trying to get you those extra points.
• 40:37
  Uh,
• 40:37
  as we get closer and closer
• 40:39
  to election day,
• 40:40
  um,
• 40:41
  because that's basically how it played out.
• 40:42
  It wasn't a lot of drama.
• 40:43
  I mean,
• 40:43
  Scott Brown,
• 40:43
  a former senator,
• 40:45
  uh,
• 40:45
  a guy who you'd think would be,
• 40:47
  you know,
• 40:48
  a challenger,
• 40:49
  a real challenger here,
• 40:50
  just never really came,
• 40:51
  uh,
• 40:51
  together,
• 40:52
  kind of a blowout.
• 40:53
  I had a couple of,
• 40:53
  uh,
• 40:54
  um,
• 40:54
  subscribers who were in on this market
• 40:56
  as well and played these markets.
• 40:58
  Rich,
• 40:58
  uh,
• 40:58
  one of our premium subscribers says.
• 41:00
  Uh,
• 41:01
  I just went small yes on both Sullivan and Shaheen.
• 41:04
  This is the congressional race.
• 41:05
  I've been averaging down and selling and buying back
• 41:08
  on,
• 41:08
  you know,
• 41:08
  on both for a small percentage each time.
• 41:10
  Super fun,
• 41:11
  but it is volatile enough to keep you busy.
• 41:13
  At 40% reporting,
• 41:14
  I'd like to do this a couple more times,
• 41:16
  says Rich.
• 41:16
  Tom Z,
• 41:17
  another premium
• 41:18
  subscriber at PredictableShow.com,
• 41:19
  says I Took a flyer when I got the Calci alert and did the latter strategy.
• 41:23
  Figured it'd go up enough that I could cash out,
• 41:25
  uh,
• 41:25
  with a profit before it was close to done.
• 41:27
  I wound up at 2.2.6 times up,
• 41:31
  uh,
• 41:31
  and now only if I had added an extra 0
• 41:34
  to my initial buy.
• 41:35
  That is always the case.
• 41:36
  I've noticed the ones that I went on,
• 41:37
  I really wish I put more money in on at the beginning.
• 41:39
  And when I lose,
• 41:40
  I wish I put less money on.
• 41:41
  I don't know how that works.
• 41:42
  Maybe that's another predictable constitutional amendment.
• 41:44
  We'll have to work on that one,
• 41:46
  And that that was the other race that was kind of of note was the Shaheen
• 41:50
  race um against Sullivan.
• 41:51
  Shaheen,
• 41:52
  another political dynasty
• 41:53
  in uh New Hampshire.
• 41:55
  Uh,
• 41:55
  this is the daughter of the retiring governor,
• 41:58
  and,
• 41:58
  and she won her race,
• 41:59
  uh,
• 41:59
  you know,
• 42:00
  relatively,
• 42:01
  it was relatively close,
• 42:02
  but,
• 42:02
  uh,
• 42:03
  you know,
• 42:03
  at the end of the story,
• 42:04
  um,
• 42:04
  she won.
• 42:05
  Uh,
• 42:05
  OK,
• 42:06
  Rhode Island is tonight,
• 42:07
  uh,
• 42:07
  polls close at 8:00 p.m.
• 42:08
  Eastern,
• 42:08
  7 p.m.
• 42:09
  Central.
• 42:10
  Uh,
• 42:10
  what do you expect in Rhode Island's state primary?
• 42:12
  What do we have here?
• 42:13
  Well,
• 42:13
  we have
• 42:14
  Dan McKee.
• 42:15
  This is a really interesting one.
• 42:16
  Sitting governor,
• 42:18
  Dan McKee.
• 42:19
  Uh,
• 42:20
  looks like he's gonna get absolutely wiped out today.
• 42:23
  And that doesn't happen that often.
• 42:24
  If you're,
• 42:25
  if you're a governor,
• 42:26
  and you think you're doing well enough to run again,
• 42:29
  typically you win,
• 42:30
  or at least are very,
• 42:31
  very competitive.
• 42:31
  It does not seem like that's what's going to happen here tonight.
• 42:34
  Um,
• 42:35
  uh,
• 42:36
  challenger is Helena
• 42:37
  Bonanno Folks,
• 42:39
  a longtime executive with Rhode Island-based CVS.
• 42:42
  She placed a close second behind McKee in 2022 in the primary.
• 42:46
  She's the niece
• 42:47
  of former Democratic Senator Chris Dodd,
• 42:50
  not something I would put on my resume,
• 42:51
  uh,
• 42:52
  but that's apparently what she has been doing.
• 42:53
  Maybe works in Rhode Island.
• 42:55
  Top issue of the campaign has been McKee's handling
• 42:57
  and oversight of the reconstruction of the Washington Bridge.
• 42:59
  Which connects Providence and East Providence
• 43:01
  and carries 100,000 vehicles per day.
• 43:03
  But over it many times,
• 43:04
  many times,
• 43:05
  never a good experience.
• 43:06
  McKee closed the westbound bridge in 2023,
• 43:09
  uh,
• 43:09
  uh,
• 43:09
  and,
• 43:10
  uh,
• 43:10
  authorities then determined in 2024 the bridge
• 43:12
  would need to be demolished and replaced.
• 43:13
  It is a total disaster.
• 43:15
  Uh,
• 43:15
  and that's why polls close at 8:00 p.m.
• 43:17
  Eastern.
• 43:17
  I,
• 43:17
  I will say this one thing that's,
• 43:19
  there's sort of a hierarchy,
• 43:20
  and I think of this often,
• 43:21
  I don't know if I've expressed this on the show at all,
• 43:23
  but
• 43:24
  There's certain
• 43:25
  uh races.
• 43:28
  types of races that I feel more comfortable with.
• 43:31
  And
• 43:32
  when you talk about a,
• 43:33
  a state in a presidential election,
• 43:35
  that might be the top tier for me,
• 43:36
  where like I feel the most comfortable
• 43:38
  in those.
• 43:39
  I feel like the,
• 43:40
  the least,
• 43:40
  the,
• 43:40
  the,
• 43:41
  I get the fewest surprises out of those.
• 43:43
  Below that,
• 43:44
  uh,
• 43:44
  you might have,
• 43:45
  um,
• 43:46
  uh,
• 43:46
  a,
• 43:46
  uh,
• 43:47
  a statewide Senate race.
• 43:49
  Below that for me is governor,
• 43:51
  and,
• 43:51
  and governors not as reliable as senators,
• 43:54
  and I get a little bit nervous.
• 43:54
  I know I recommended the governor not too long ago,
• 43:57
  but the,
• 43:57
  just even the fact that you'd have a close race,
• 43:59
  right between
• 44:00
  a Democrat and a Republican in Oregon
• 44:03
  is indicative of what I'm talking about.
• 44:05
  Senators seem to have,
• 44:07
  the partisan stuff comes out more vividly,
• 44:10
  and when you're talking about your governor,
• 44:13
  sometimes surprises do happen.
• 44:14
  Kansas elects Democratic governors relatively routinely.
• 44:18
  Um,
• 44:18
  you know,
• 44:19
  Democrats get into states like West Virginia and
• 44:21
  Alabama and all different kind of weird places sometimes
• 44:25
  when it comes to governor.
• 44:26
  The same thing happens with Republicans in states they have no right winning in.
• 44:29
  I mean,
• 44:29
  Kelly Ayotte,
• 44:30
  we talked about New Hampshire,
• 44:32
  she is the favorite heavily
• 44:34
  as a Republican in New Hampshire.
• 44:36
  Uh,
• 44:37
  Phil Scott in,
• 44:37
  in Virginia,
• 44:39
  uh,
• 44:39
  heavy favorite.
• 44:40
  Massachusetts had Republican,
• 44:42
  and again,
• 44:43
  they were moderate Republicans,
• 44:45
  uh,
• 44:45
  Baker.
• 44:46
  Who was a Republican there,
• 44:47
  uh,
• 44:47
  governor for years and years and years and years and years and years,
• 44:49
  uh,
• 44:50
  Larry Hogan in Maryland.
• 44:52
  You would never
• 44:52
  picture this happening,
• 44:53
  but
• 44:54
  the right set of circumstances happens and these things do occur.
• 44:58
  And that's why some of the races,
• 45:00
  particularly ones for me,
• 45:01
  where I see Republicans
• 45:03
  in a heavily uh,
• 45:05
  Republican states
• 45:06
  as governor.
• 45:07
  I,
• 45:08
  uh,
• 45:08
  there's a couple points I discount that.
• 45:10
  Like if I think
• 45:11
  normally there'd be a 92% chance they would win,
• 45:14
  I think of it more like 85,
• 45:15
  86,
• 45:15
  87,
• 45:17
  because
• 45:17
  there is that weird outlier thing,
• 45:19
  especially when you're talking about issues like this.
• 45:21
  Construction of a bridge
• 45:23
  shouldn't be a Republican or Democratic issue.
• 45:25
  And if you just sucked at your job,
• 45:27
  you might lose because you just screwed it up,
• 45:29
  right?
• 45:30
  Um,
• 45:30
  and,
• 45:30
  and that was,
• 45:31
  you know,
• 45:31
  some of the hope for someone like,
• 45:33
  uh,
• 45:33
  a mayoral job,
• 45:35
  uh,
• 45:35
  in Los Angeles with,
• 45:36
  uh,
• 45:37
  Spencer Pratt.
• 45:37
  That was where that hope came from.
• 45:38
  Didn't wind up materializing there,
• 45:39
  but that was where the hope came from.
• 45:41
  And I think as you go down from population size when you go from Senate.
• 45:45
  To governor
• 45:45
  below that is House races.
• 45:47
  I feel less confident in House races than I do in governor gubernatorial races,
• 45:51
  you know,
• 45:52
  there's,
• 45:52
  it depends,
• 45:53
  but there's a range.
• 45:54
  And then,
• 45:54
  uh,
• 45:54
  you know,
• 45:55
  bottom of that you can get to mayoral and all
• 45:56
  these other things that they're the smaller the population,
• 45:59
  the less reliable partisanship is.
• 46:01
  The more scary stuff you can find,
• 46:03
  but sometimes better value too,
• 46:04
  so
• 46:05
  there's a trade-off there,
• 46:06
  but that's,
• 46:06
  uh,
• 46:07
  that's the way that I think of that.
• 46:08
  Uh,
• 46:08
  anything else?
• 46:08
  Uh,
• 46:09
  some markets here,
• 46:09
  let me just give you these real quick,
• 46:10
  just to give you a quick rundown because I'm running really late today.
• 46:12
  Rhode Island Republican governor nominee,
• 46:14
  you see here,
• 46:15
  uh,
• 46:16
  uh,
• 46:16
  Palino and,
• 46:17
  uh,
• 46:17
  Guckian.
• 46:19
  Um,
• 46:19
  they're,
• 46:20
  uh,
• 46:20
  pretty interesting race actually if you have a take on it.
• 46:23
  Uh,
• 46:23
  I,
• 46:23
  I honestly have not followed this one that closely,
• 46:26
  uh,
• 46:26
  but because obviously whoever the Republican wins is
• 46:28
  gonna get into this general and lose,
• 46:30
  uh,
• 46:30
  but you do see,
• 46:31
  uh,
• 46:32
  about an 80/20 race which there's definitely some profit potential there.
• 46:36
  Uh,
• 46:36
  Rhode Island Democratic Senate nominee is another,
• 46:38
  uh,
• 46:39
  you can look at here,
• 46:40
  this is Jack Reed at 99.9%,
• 46:43
  no doubt about that.
• 46:44
  Reed,
• 46:45
  again,
• 46:45
  one of these guys has just been around forever and we'll just.
• 46:48
  Continue to be reelected until he dies.
• 46:49
  That doesn't always happen with governors in these states.
• 46:51
  Senators usually does,
• 46:53
  and the Republican Senate nominee will have basically no chance against Reid,
• 46:56
  uh,
• 46:57
  unfortunately,
• 46:58
  uh,
• 46:58
  for Raymond McKay,
• 47:00
  who looks like he's going to win very,
• 47:01
  very easily here over,
• 47:03
  uh,
• 47:03
  Alan Waters.
• 47:05
  Uh,
• 47:05
  but you know,
• 47:06
  we'll get into,
• 47:06
  I,
• 47:06
  I may do some stuff tonight.
• 47:08
  I don't know.
• 47:08
  I've got,
• 47:09
  we've got maybe going to the,
• 47:10
  uh,
• 47:11
  the an event tied to the,
• 47:13
  um,
• 47:13
  convention tonight and another one tomorrow.
• 47:15
  I might go to the convention itself tomorrow.
• 47:17
  So,
• 47:17
  uh,
• 47:18
  the,
• 47:18
  the schedule is a little bit rough here this week.
• 47:20
  We've also spent a lot of time
• 47:22
  working on the election model,
• 47:23
  trying to get it ready for you,
• 47:24
  so you have it as soon as possible.
• 47:25
  I'd like to get it to you
• 47:27
  before the final primary because there's a lot of money
• 47:29
  that's just going into these primaries week to week.
• 47:31
  I'd like you to beat a little bit of that in.
• 47:33
  So you do have Stu's picks at predictableshow.com.
• 47:36
  That's already available.
• 47:37
  You can see where I am.
• 47:38
  A lot of these positions are in.
• 47:39
  Formed by this model,
• 47:40
  but you'll have access to this model and hopefully a relatively pretty way,
• 47:44
  uh,
• 47:44
  coming very,
• 47:45
  very soon at predictableShow.com.
• 47:46
  You gotta be a premium subscriber,
• 47:47
  you gotta join the predictable posse,
• 47:49
  but if you do that,
• 47:49
  you'll get access to all sorts of great tools that you will love
• 47:52
  as we get closer and closer to elections.
• 47:54
  So many of you have signed up and we really do appreciate us
• 47:56
  helping us build this,
• 47:57
  uh,
• 47:58
  this little company into something big.
• 47:59
  So thanks so much for joining us.
• 48:01
  Uh,
• 48:01
  we'll be back in a second.
• 48:11
  Welcome back to Predictable with Stu.
• 48:13
  Uh,
• 48:13
  before we go tonight,
• 48:14
  I want to tell you,
• 48:15
  uh,
• 48:15
  we used some Calci
• 48:17
  graphs,
• 48:17
  uh,
• 48:18
  on the program tonight,
• 48:19
  some Calci markets as we often do.
• 48:21
  Uh,
• 48:21
  and one of the reasons we did that is I didn't realize,
• 48:23
  uh,
• 48:23
  until just the other day,
• 48:25
  uh,
• 48:25
  I've been on Calci for 5 years.
• 48:27
  They had a
• 48:28
  my 5-year anniversary was September 1st.
• 48:31
  It was September 1st,
• 48:31
  2021.
• 48:33
  I got this little note from,
• 48:34
  uh,
• 48:34
  Calci.
• 48:34
  My application was approved.
• 48:36
  Uh,
• 48:37
  I mean,
• 48:37
  if you look at
• 48:38
  this little logo that they've
• 48:40
  Uh,
• 48:40
  since gotten rid of,
• 48:41
  and I've never,
• 48:42
  I've
• 48:43
  not seen that logo in a very long time,
• 48:45
  um,
• 48:45
  and,
• 48:46
  uh,
• 48:46
  you know,
• 48:47
  just an incredible
• 48:49
  run if you think about it,
• 48:50
  uh,
• 48:50
  you know,
• 48:50
  uh,
• 48:51
  Tarik Mansour and,
• 48:52
  and Luana Lopez Lara,
• 48:54
  uh,
• 48:54
  the two people who founded,
• 48:56
  uh,
• 48:56
  Calci and,
• 48:57
  uh,
• 48:57
  and run it to,
• 48:58
  to this day,
• 48:59
  uh,
• 49:00
  built a
• 49:01
  Massive business.
• 49:02
  I mean,
• 49:02
  there's reports of it being valued at $40 billion
• 49:06
  and I,
• 49:06
  I'm dying to know,
• 49:09
  uh,
• 49:09
  cause this is like 2 or 3 weeks after they started taking
• 49:12
  people in,
• 49:13
  uh,
• 49:14
  for accounts.
• 49:14
  I'm dying to know like how early that,
• 49:16
  like,
• 49:16
  I had to be one of their first few 1000 customers or 100.
• 49:19
  I don't even,
• 49:20
  there was not a lot of fanfare for it at the time,
• 49:23
  uh,
• 49:23
  but
• 49:24
  Uh,
• 49:24
  it was,
• 49:25
  uh,
• 49:25
  pretty cool.
• 49:25
  I,
• 49:25
  I,
• 49:25
  I,
• 49:26
  I went back and I was looking for,
• 49:27
  as I
• 49:28
  kind of stumbled upon this,
• 49:29
  uh,
• 49:29
  news and I was like looking back to my emails.
• 49:32
  I was getting emails from like,
• 49:33
  from
• 49:34
  Tarik Mansour,
• 49:35
  the guy,
• 49:36
  the CEO.
• 49:37
  He was like emailing me,
• 49:38
  hey,
• 49:39
  uh,
• 49:39
  here's some new,
• 49:40
  uh,
• 49:40
  markets we opened.
• 49:41
  Just wanted to let you know.
• 49:44
  He's like,
• 49:44
  he was like emailing customers at this point.
• 49:46
  Um,
• 49:47
  so it was kind of,
• 49:48
  kind of a cool thing if you think about there's just a rise of,
• 49:50
  uh,
• 49:50
  even if you don't care about prediction markets,
• 49:52
  it's like,
• 49:52
  it's the rise of a really big company.
• 49:53
  Company
• 49:54
  in a very short period of time.
• 49:55
  So congratulations to all of our friends over at Calsie.
• 49:57
  A lot of great people over there,
• 49:58
  uh,
• 49:59
  and,
• 49:59
  uh,
• 49:59
  we root for their success.
• 50:00
  We want,
• 50:01
  we want good things,
• 50:02
  um,
• 50:02
  for prediction markets and
• 50:04
  for Calsie in particular.
• 50:05
  So,
• 50:05
  uh,
• 50:05
  thanks so much for,
• 50:06
  uh,
• 50:07
  for,
• 50:07
  uh,
• 50:07
  growing this into a really cool thing that I can actually do a show about
• 50:10
  because,
• 50:10
  frankly,
• 50:11
  uh.
• 50:11
  I mean,
• 50:12
  I used to mention prediction markets for years and
• 50:14
  years and years and years on my other shows,
• 50:15
  and no one was really on them.
• 50:17
  They were more like just tools to inform.
• 50:18
  I was on them,
• 50:19
  but no one really was,
• 50:20
  uh,
• 50:21
  was there.
• 50:21
  It's,
• 50:21
  it's cool to see that people are,
• 50:23
  are more and more interested in this stuff,
• 50:25
  uh,
• 50:25
  every single day.
• 50:26
  Um,
• 50:27
  before we go,
• 50:28
  I wanna remind you,
• 50:28
  uh,
• 50:29
  big news,
• 50:29
  uh,
• 50:30
  coming to Blaze TV.
• 50:31
  This
• 50:32
  show,
• 50:32
  yeah,
• 50:33
  predictable with Stu coming soon.
• 50:34
  To Blaze TV helping with the election coverage and so much more over on Blaze TV.
• 50:39
  We love our Blaze TV family.
• 50:40
  If you're not a subscriber to Blaze TV,
• 50:42
  I would absolutely recommend it,
• 50:43
  Blazetv.com.
• 50:45
  Uh,
• 50:45
  you can go to blazetv.com/Stew and Dave.
• 50:47
  I know it works,
• 50:47
  uh,
• 50:47
  cause I do a show called Stu and Dave Does America as well.
• 50:50
  So that's a,
• 50:51
  uh,
• 50:51
  you get that show,
• 50:52
  so many more.
• 50:53
  Kind of all these voices from across the spectrum
• 50:56
  of the conservative side
• 50:57
  of things and uh it's,
• 50:58
  it's just a great way and also now you're gonna get your predictable fix there
• 51:02
  as well.
• 51:02
  Be right in your feet as one of
• 51:04
  uh the uh
• 51:05
  shows that you get as part of your subscription.
• 51:07
  Uh,
• 51:07
  but if you're watching it somewhere else,
• 51:08
  we're not going away.
• 51:09
  We will be there.
• 51:10
  In fact,
• 51:10
  we're going to even
• 51:11
  More places.
• 51:11
  We'll tell you
• 51:12
  maybe a little bit about that tomorrow.
• 51:13
  We'll see.
• 51:14
  We will see about that.
• 51:15
  So
• 51:15
  thanks so much for joining us.
• 51:17
  Last reminder predictableShow.com.
• 51:18
  We may have some stuff up there on Rhode Island if I get into it,
• 51:20
  if I,
• 51:21
  if I can get free from meetings and stuff.
• 51:22
  I'm not sure how much we're gonna do.
• 51:23
  The,
• 51:23
  the community will be there.
• 51:25
  There'll be,
• 51:25
  uh,
• 51:26
  interesting conversation going on about that.
• 51:27
  Don't miss out on that.
• 51:29
  So,
• 51:29
  uh,
• 51:29
  go there,
• 51:29
  predictableShow.com.
• 51:30
  The election models coming very,
• 51:32
  very soon.
• 51:33
  There will also be a new edition of Stu's picks.
• 51:34
  There's a ton of new positions
• 51:36
  that are gonna be listed on Friday.
• 51:38
  Uh,
• 51:38
  you don't wanna miss those,
• 51:40
  and you don't wanna miss the election model as well.
• 51:42
  That will be updated,
• 51:42
  you know,
• 51:43
  daily or every two days or so as we get closer and closer to the election,
• 51:46
  depending on how much I can.
• 51:47
  Uh,
• 51:47
  I can figure out to do it easily.
• 51:49
  It's taking me a long time to update right now,
• 51:50
  so
• 51:51
  if I can get that system a little bit smoother,
• 51:53
  we'll do it maybe even multiple times a day.
• 51:54
  Who knows?
• 51:55
  OK,
• 51:55
  that's all I have time for.
• 51:56
  Thanks so much for joining us.
• 51:57
  It's Predictable with Stu.
• 51:58
  Join us on YouTube as well,
• 51:59
  youtube.com/atpredictableshow or social media everywhere
• 52:03
  at predictable show.