Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - Mailbag Episode Part I
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- 1:20Speaker 1: Welcome for the favorites the podcast from the volume of
- 1:23Speaker 1: the Podcast Network. I am Chatmilman, Chief Content Officer of
- 1:27Speaker 1: the Action Network. Next two episodes we're gonna do this
- 1:32Speaker 1: week Mayo bag Listen all season long, people are tweeting
- 1:38Speaker 1: at me, they are tweeting at Simon, they are tweeting
- 1:41Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell asking us questions. So, now that the season
- 1:46Speaker 1: is over and we've done our Super Bowl Futures episode,
- 1:49Speaker 1: which we did last week, go check it out. If
- 1:51Speaker 1: you didn't hear it, we asked you to send us
- 1:54Speaker 1: all the questions you'd want to ask, ranging from a
- 1:57Speaker 1: variety of topics. We're super excited to do it. Answer
- 2:01Speaker 1: a bunch of things, from the practical on the field
- 2:05Speaker 1: to the more esoteric about our lives. We're gonna do
- 2:08Speaker 1: it today on Tuesday. We're gonna do it on Thursday
- 2:11Speaker 1: as well. Quick reminder, download or subscribe or follow the
- 2:17Speaker 1: favorites and however you get your podcast it's the most
- 2:20Speaker 1: important thing you could do. If you like the Favorites podcast,
- 2:25Speaker 1: I am joined as I am for every episode by
- 2:29Speaker 1: my companion, my BF, my compadre professional Better Simon Hunter Hello,
- 2:36Speaker 1: Sawy Man, Hello cha. I think that was the longest
- 2:39Speaker 1: we haven't talked. I think it was one week. We
- 2:41Speaker 1: haven't talked the longest, and what seven months? So probably? Yeah,
- 2:45Speaker 1: that was a nice little, uh little mini break before
- 2:48Speaker 1: we die back into the offseason. You know what's funny,
- 2:52Speaker 1: I will I do have things that like come up
- 2:56Speaker 1: during the week that I want to text you about,
- 2:59Speaker 1: But oftentimes I think I'm just gonna save it because
- 3:04Speaker 1: gave it for the show. Like, we want to be fresh,
- 3:07Speaker 1: you know, unless it's totally urgent. I want it to
- 3:10Speaker 1: be totally fresh for the show before you know, we
- 3:15Speaker 1: dive into anything else, you know what I want to
- 3:19Speaker 1: do before we get even deeper. Speaking of diving. In
- 3:24Speaker 1: last week, our listeners heard us talk about game Time
- 3:28Speaker 1: the fastest growing ticketing gap in the United States. It's true.
- 3:32Speaker 1: I use game Time a lot. I've bought tickets on
- 3:35Speaker 1: it several times. If you're looking to get to in
- 3:39Speaker 1: the NBA or NHL game this week, or even a concert.
- 3:42Speaker 1: Game Time has amazing last minute deals on tickets to
- 3:47Speaker 1: all of these events. I'm going to open game Time
- 3:50Speaker 1: right now. I'm sitting in our studio, the Action Network
- 3:53Speaker 1: Studios in New York City. Here's what I could do.
- 3:58Speaker 1: If I wanted to go to a game in my
- 4:00Speaker 1: area tonight. I could see right now the New Jersey
- 4:05Speaker 1: Devils tonight seven pm. I could see it. Oh my god,
- 4:10Speaker 1: I can get great Lower Bowl section thirty eight bucks.
- 4:15Speaker 1: How easy was that? Literally took me about three seconds.
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- 4:31Speaker 1: download the app, enter code favorites for twenty dollars off.
- 4:35Speaker 1: Download game Time today, last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. Simon,
- 4:41Speaker 1: Yeah brother, you know what I think. One time you
- 4:45Speaker 1: and I went to a Phillies game over the summer
- 4:47Speaker 1: and I bought the tickets on game Time. There you go,
- 4:49Speaker 1: great seats. Listen. We're now, you know, ten days removed
- 4:54Speaker 1: from the Super Bowl. It's amazing how quickly the conversation
- 4:58Speaker 1: turns to DK Metcalf and whether or not that was
- 5:02Speaker 1: a legit leap, and if he deserves to be red tested,
- 5:05Speaker 1: or where Aaron Rodgers is going to go, or how
- 5:09Speaker 1: Eric the Enemy is getting shafted because he's taking over
- 5:12Speaker 1: his offensive coordinator for the Commanders and the two coordinators
- 5:15Speaker 1: who lost in the Super Bowl are getting head coaching jobs,
- 5:19Speaker 1: which just seem just completely fucking absurd. Did you see
- 5:26Speaker 1: the video of Jonathan Gannon giving his speech meeting players
- 5:32Speaker 1: on the team, a compilation video that has been all
- 5:35Speaker 1: over the internet the past twenty four hours from your
- 5:37Speaker 1: former defensive coordinator. Yeah, he's corny as hell, But I
- 5:41Speaker 1: mean if he is what he is and the guys
- 5:43Speaker 1: know it, I respect it. Like I'm one of those people.
- 5:45Speaker 1: I'm all about just being who you are. So if
- 5:48Speaker 1: he's corny as shit and that's what he is, he's
- 5:50Speaker 1: just on big old nerd, I'm about it, Like I
- 5:53Speaker 1: don't care if this guy can give me the best
- 5:55Speaker 1: Ray Ross speech, if he's the numbers guy and he
- 5:57Speaker 1: can figure out how to make me better as a player,
- 5:59Speaker 1: I'm cool with it. But if he's this real tight
- 6:02Speaker 1: ass nerd who sucks to a coaching that dude is
- 6:05Speaker 1: a dead man walking. He will not make it a
- 6:07Speaker 1: year because he'll lose that locker room quick. If they're bad,
- 6:11Speaker 1: it's over because that guy does not have their personality.
- 6:13Speaker 1: So definitely one of those where you know, these owners,
- 6:19Speaker 1: they meet these guys, they interview them, and I don't
- 6:21Speaker 1: think they can think to themselves, how is this guy
- 6:23Speaker 1: going to relate to a couple of twenty two twenty
- 6:26Speaker 1: three year olds. So again, not trying to judge too hard.
- 6:30Speaker 1: I hated Doug Peterson when the Eagles hired him, and
- 6:32Speaker 1: I hated Sirianni when the Eagles hired him. Both those
- 6:36Speaker 1: coaches got my team to a Super Bowl. So not
- 6:38Speaker 1: gonna judge off for first first meeting, you know, but
- 6:41Speaker 1: holy shit, was that guy corny? So I thought it
- 6:44Speaker 1: was interesting. The reason I bring it up isn't just
- 6:46Speaker 1: a hate and sort of be cynical and make fun
- 6:49Speaker 1: is because something he said was why did I take
- 6:54Speaker 1: this job? Because not many franchises have a franchise quarterback
- 7:03Speaker 1: and he believes obviously the Kyler Murray is that franchise quarterback,
- 7:07Speaker 1: and he's putting himself in a position to succeed by
- 7:09Speaker 1: aligning himself with a franchise quarterback as talented as Kyler Murray.
- 7:15Speaker 1: If you share him sent him in people. They have
- 7:16Speaker 1: the worse odds right now to win the NFC. Yeah, Cardinals,
- 7:20Speaker 1: they do. They totally do. And nobody, by the way,
- 7:24Speaker 1: nobody is buying in to the Cardinals as a team
- 7:27Speaker 1: that can be one of those worst first teams right
- 7:30Speaker 1: in the same way we loved Dog Peterson taking over
- 7:33Speaker 1: the Jazz with Trevor Lawrence. Nobody is feeling that way
- 7:36Speaker 1: about Kyler Murray and Arizona Cardinals because I think people
- 7:39Speaker 1: are still a little bit skeptical about Kyler Murray because
- 7:44Speaker 1: he's amazing in the first part of the year. You'd
- 7:46Speaker 1: seen him with Cliff Kingsbury fading in the second half
- 7:49Speaker 1: of the year, not being the greatest leader on the field.
- 7:54Speaker 1: So I think there's a lot of people who are wondering,
- 7:57Speaker 1: is this guy actually the franchise quarterback? Right now? Their
- 8:01Speaker 1: odds to win the NFCC they are plus nine thousand. Yeah.
- 8:08Speaker 1: I was gonna say, I've talked to I talked to
- 8:10Speaker 1: a couple of pros, and these pros are literally the
- 8:12Speaker 1: guys that they're the only other ones betting the Jaguars
- 8:15Speaker 1: would be last year. Like these guys are like me.
- 8:18Speaker 1: They love being in the mud. Bett and the gros
- 8:20Speaker 1: shit that no one wants to touch. We all said
- 8:23Speaker 1: the same exact thing to each other. Is this kid,
- 8:25Speaker 1: Ben Simmons. Ben Simmons had all the talent in the world.
- 8:29Speaker 1: He doesn't love basketball. Ben Simmons loves fame. And that's
- 8:32Speaker 1: what I'm worried about. Kyler Murray. Kyler Murray, he loves
- 8:35Speaker 1: to play video games. He played sports. I mean, he's
- 8:37Speaker 1: one of the greatest athletes ever. He could have easily
- 8:39Speaker 1: played MLB or done football. We all know Kyler Murray's story.
- 8:43Speaker 1: How much is he loved football? And that's my biggest
- 8:46Speaker 1: word with Kyler because you know, we all want people
- 8:49Speaker 1: to have their own lives outside of football, right, we
- 8:51Speaker 1: all want that. If we think of any quarterback over
- 8:55Speaker 1: the last twenty years, the ones that succeed, they're the
- 8:57Speaker 1: guys that are obsessed with it. They're the literally the
- 8:59Speaker 1: guys that live and breathe it like they got the talent, right,
- 9:02Speaker 1: we all know they all have the talent. How much
- 9:05Speaker 1: do you want it? Like? How much do you love it?
- 9:06Speaker 1: Like my favorite thing I really hurts. Hurts lost the
- 9:09Speaker 1: super Bowl they flew in. He didn't give himself a
- 9:11Speaker 1: day off. The next day he was in their gym
- 9:13Speaker 1: but lifting. So you need to be that kind of
- 9:15Speaker 1: weird psycho to succeed in this league. And I don't
- 9:17Speaker 1: think Kyler is that guy. Like he likes video games,
- 9:21Speaker 1: he likes other things. So as someone that coming out
- 9:24Speaker 1: of college, I was all in on Kyler. I thought
- 9:26Speaker 1: he was gonna be the new wave of quarterback, right,
- 9:27Speaker 1: this small body, fast runner that has an arm. I
- 9:31Speaker 1: really thought Kyler was gonna be that next guy. So
- 9:34Speaker 1: not here to write him off, but I feel like
- 9:36Speaker 1: anyone could be an agreement. Right now. It's like, does
- 9:38Speaker 1: this kid love football or do you just love being famous?
- 9:41Speaker 1: And you know he already got the bag, he's got
- 9:43Speaker 1: the money. He can just go do his video game
- 9:46Speaker 1: thing the rest of his life now, be a twitch
- 9:47Speaker 1: stream or do whatever. So I get where he's coming from,
- 9:51Speaker 1: right Like the Eagles, they offered him more money to
- 9:53Speaker 1: stay as our DC and he turned it down. I
- 9:56Speaker 1: think for what Chad just talked about, it's like, you
- 9:59Speaker 1: can get one of these two well of guys, you
- 10:01Speaker 1: can have a job for the next ten years if
- 10:03Speaker 1: you do it right. So I'm right there with you chat.
- 10:05Speaker 1: I think I'm not trying to shit on the guy,
- 10:07Speaker 1: but I get exactly where he's coming from. It's like,
- 10:10Speaker 1: you know, there's only thirty two of these jobs. He's
- 10:11Speaker 1: an opportunity. He might as well take it. It's interesting
- 10:18Speaker 1: when you talk about this new wave. You could say,
- 10:20Speaker 1: and we've talked a lot about Justin Fields, and some
- 10:23Speaker 1: of the questions are about the draft, so I don't
- 10:24Speaker 1: want to yeah, I don't want to get too far ahead.
- 10:27Speaker 1: But Justin Field did say something interesting. He was complaining
- 10:31Speaker 1: about the cold in Chicago, and all these conversations right
- 10:36Speaker 1: now are about Justin Fields and should the Bears trade them,
- 10:41Speaker 1: should they take the number one pick. I am all
- 10:44Speaker 1: in on Justin Fields, but I will tell you hearing
- 10:46Speaker 1: Justin Fields talk about the cold in Chicago made me say, oh,
- 10:53Speaker 1: you hate it too, though you didn't want to go
- 10:55Speaker 1: to the game because it was too cold, I hate
- 10:57Speaker 1: it too. I don't have to play quarterback in it.
- 11:00Speaker 1: I'm going to play quarterback for the Chicago Bears. You've
- 11:04Speaker 1: got to own the cold. You've got to believe it's
- 11:06Speaker 1: your advantage. You've got to know that you're tougher than
- 11:08Speaker 1: everybody else and that you will thrive in the cold,
- 11:12Speaker 1: and that is how you are going to win the
- 11:14Speaker 1: game because somebody else isn't tough enough to do it.
- 11:17Speaker 1: I'll say this, though, your coldest game of the year
- 11:20Speaker 1: against that Eagles team. He got hurt, he came back,
- 11:23Speaker 1: he drove us down the field and got us that
- 11:25Speaker 1: backdoor cover. So once again, I'm all good with fields
- 11:29Speaker 1: in the cold. My man can talk it, but he
- 11:31Speaker 1: actually does it, like he played in that cold after
- 11:34Speaker 1: an injury in a meaningless game, but still out there
- 11:36Speaker 1: swinging in that fourth quarter. So once again, that's the
- 11:40Speaker 1: kind of thing I want to see, Like, I love
- 11:42Speaker 1: that hunger and passion, Like that's the kind of stuff
- 11:45Speaker 1: I live for. So, yeah, we have a lot to
- 11:47Speaker 1: talk about about the draft coming up, so I won't
- 11:49Speaker 1: burn it here. But man, it is going to be
- 11:51Speaker 1: a very fun, exciting offseason. We're about to talking about
- 11:53Speaker 1: these quarterbacks here. It's not like this. It's usually not
- 11:56Speaker 1: like this. It's usually not so much QB drama in
- 11:58Speaker 1: the off season like this. So here's how I want
- 12:01Speaker 1: to frame this question. Because someone sent into question, you know,
- 12:04Speaker 1: can we just talk about the QB is on the move?
- 12:07Speaker 1: Here's how I want to frame it the best way
- 12:10Speaker 1: from a betting perspective. Do you think about this is
- 12:13Speaker 1: where do we think a quarterback is going to land?
- 12:16Speaker 1: And do we like their odds now enough to bet
- 12:21Speaker 1: on their odds being at the longest based on what
- 12:26Speaker 1: we think this is going to how the quarterback scenario
- 12:29Speaker 1: is going to play out? So, you know, do we
- 12:31Speaker 1: think David Carr is going to go to the Jets?
- 12:35Speaker 1: And if that's the case, do we think that there's
- 12:38Speaker 1: good value on the Jets right now at twenty eight
- 12:44Speaker 1: to one at FanDuel right now? Actually the Jets are yeah,
- 12:48Speaker 1: twenty eight to one. Do we think that's good? Do
- 12:52Speaker 1: we think it's not like, let's play that scenario with
- 12:56Speaker 1: David Carr. Stop on the David Carr. It's Derek I
- 13:02Speaker 1: mean tak Carr because by the way, you love Hugh
- 13:06Speaker 1: by the way, By the way, the number of times
- 13:09Speaker 1: over the course of the season where you get a
- 13:12Speaker 1: name wrong or call a guy by the wrong name.
- 13:14Speaker 1: I don't know their names. I'm dyslexic, but I can
- 13:16Speaker 1: get Derek Carr right now. If you're asking me to
- 13:19Speaker 1: pronounce Jannis entered koopo. That's another story, but Jannis entered tokopo. Yeah,
- 13:26Speaker 1: but I can do. Derek Carr and David carr Um,
- 13:29Speaker 1: I love it. I mean my I'm one of those
- 13:31Speaker 1: people were like, we're gonna talk about a couple of
- 13:33Speaker 1: teams here, I would say the most bet team by
- 13:37Speaker 1: pros that they literally are just betting it on pure whatever,
- 13:41Speaker 1: like they're just throwing money into it because it's like
- 13:43Speaker 1: it's the NFC is the Panthers, Tampa and the Saints.
- 13:48Speaker 1: They're three teams that don't have a quarterback. I know
- 13:51Speaker 1: a bunch of pros are just betting them just because
- 13:54Speaker 1: they're in the NFC. And I mean me, Chack can
- 13:55Speaker 1: do this right now if he wants. Who do you
- 13:57Speaker 1: think chat are the best three quarterbacks NFC right now?
- 14:01Speaker 1: So imagine Aaron Rodgers leaves, Yeah, like he goes to
- 14:04Speaker 1: the Jets or the Raiders. That's an interesting question, right,
- 14:09Speaker 1: And it's tough and like I had to pro ask
- 14:11Speaker 1: me that same exact thing. And I'm trying not be
- 14:13Speaker 1: a homer because in my mind, the first persons, yeah,
- 14:17Speaker 1: like hurts hurts to me right now is number one,
- 14:19Speaker 1: just because he put up the stats in the Super
- 14:22Speaker 1: Bowl through for three hundred yards. You rushed with three
- 14:23Speaker 1: touchdowns in the Super Bowl. Okay, I'll give that kid
- 14:26Speaker 1: to benefit of the the doubt. Now Number two is when
- 14:28Speaker 1: I had trouble. It's like, am I just gonna give
- 14:30Speaker 1: it to Stafford because he's the best. He's got the
- 14:33Speaker 1: ring and then the third spot. It's just tricky. So
- 14:37Speaker 1: to me, the NFC, that's what all these pros are saying,
- 14:40Speaker 1: where Derek Carr, Yes, we want to shoot on Derek Carr.
- 14:42Speaker 1: He's he had that one great MVP year and every
- 14:45Speaker 1: other year he's been very lack luster year. You know
- 14:48Speaker 1: this guy can give the right situation. We know Derek
- 14:50Speaker 1: Carr has the talent. So from their perspective, I think
- 14:53Speaker 1: they're all just looking at that a the NFC South
- 14:56Speaker 1: and they're just taking flyers on the Saints, the Bucks,
- 15:00Speaker 1: and the Panthers, where I completely understand it. I completely
- 15:03Speaker 1: get it. But to me, I think you just nailed Chet.
- 15:06Speaker 1: It's like the Jets is what we want to bet.
- 15:08Speaker 1: We want to bet a team that has an incredibly
- 15:10Speaker 1: good defense, that's very young, with a good coach on
- 15:13Speaker 1: the defensive mind. On the offensive side, we already know
- 15:16Speaker 1: will sent to wide receiver positions. Incredible. They got a
- 15:18Speaker 1: couple of really good running backs. Obviously need to work
- 15:20Speaker 1: on that old line, but you know, you plug Derek
- 15:23Speaker 1: Carr in there, you plug Aaron Rodgers in there. That's
- 15:26Speaker 1: a huge upgrade from Joe Flacco and Zach Wilson. I mean,
- 15:30Speaker 1: what did they have last year and eight or nine
- 15:32Speaker 1: wins this Jets team. So it's hard for me not
- 15:35Speaker 1: to take it. Take a little on the Jets team.
- 15:38Speaker 1: But I already told me and Chat already talked about it.
- 15:40Speaker 1: If I'm going long shots AFC, I've been looking at Denver,
- 15:43Speaker 1: but looking at the Browns. So that's my only issue
- 15:46Speaker 1: with the Jets team right now, is I wish it
- 15:47Speaker 1: was thirty five, thirty to one the pros betted down.
- 15:51Speaker 1: Most books have a twenty five to one or twenty
- 15:52Speaker 1: eight to one. So going through the QB carousel, and
- 15:57Speaker 1: you know, you got a whole list of names here.
- 16:00Speaker 1: Don't really care much about Bridgewater, don't really care much
- 16:03Speaker 1: about Brissett. I mean, the Geno Smith thing is great,
- 16:05Speaker 1: but don't really care about that that much. Like the Mayfields,
- 16:09Speaker 1: the Sam Darnold's you know, Jimmy G's a little intriguing.
- 16:13Speaker 1: At the same time, Jimmy G can't stay healthy for
- 16:16Speaker 1: a full season, So what the hell, I mean, Chad
- 16:19Speaker 1: gonna do this? Guy goes to Carolina, Mean, Chad really
- 16:21Speaker 1: gonna move them? You don't bet Carolina. No, it's really
- 16:25Speaker 1: it really does feel like it's just the Derek Carr
- 16:27Speaker 1: Aaron Rodger sweepstake, and everyone's waiting to see what happens
- 16:31Speaker 1: with Lamar. So you know, Lamar Jackson gets franchised, that's
- 16:36Speaker 1: end of that. But right now we don't really know
- 16:39Speaker 1: what to do with that. So to me, I've thrown
- 16:41Speaker 1: a couple of flyers out there, Chad, but nothing nothing
- 16:44Speaker 1: like big I got in bet. You know, I'm trying
- 16:48Speaker 1: to think right now, I might have two thousand dollars
- 16:50Speaker 1: total on the Jets. I might have I don't know,
- 16:54Speaker 1: five thousand total between the Carolina Panthers, the Saints, and
- 16:58Speaker 1: the Bucks. Where I think Chad just talking about I'm
- 17:00Speaker 1: just kind of throwing darts here, like I got no
- 17:02Speaker 1: inside info. These teams. They don't know if all they're
- 17:04Speaker 1: gonna do either. It's all like, all right, we'll go
- 17:07Speaker 1: let Aaron Rodgers sitting in a hole for four days
- 17:09Speaker 1: in the dark, and when he comes out, he'll pick
- 17:11Speaker 1: his team and then stuff will start falling, because I
- 17:13Speaker 1: feel like that's what it is. It's like, you want
- 17:15Speaker 1: to get the guy who won back to back MVP,
- 17:18Speaker 1: not last year, but the year before, Like yes, bad
- 17:20Speaker 1: year by Rogers. All we see it all the time, right, Chad?
- 17:23Speaker 1: That clip is real, Like Guys Hit forty that cliff falls.
- 17:26Speaker 1: He's thirty nine. So the Aaron Rodgers thing is very interesting.
- 17:31Speaker 1: But we love revenge. I love motivation. I love revenge.
- 17:34Speaker 1: So to me, Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers, every team they
- 17:36Speaker 1: end up on, I'll try to convince Chad, I'll most likely,
- 17:40Speaker 1: you know, have a future one of those teams, because
- 17:42Speaker 1: I just love that revenge spot, especially after a Tom
- 17:45Speaker 1: Brady's super Bowl first year on a new team, Stafford
- 17:47Speaker 1: super Bowl first year on a new team. That makes
- 17:50Speaker 1: a little more easy to bet on a team, A
- 17:52Speaker 1: player on a new team. Yeah, you're not gonna have
- 17:54Speaker 1: to convince me where to take some flyers here for
- 17:58Speaker 1: the same exact reason you just say. I love the
- 18:01Speaker 1: idea of a talented quarterback being revitalized on a new
- 18:05Speaker 1: team surrounded by more talent. It just changed your perspective.
- 18:09Speaker 1: You are so enthusiastic. The next year it gets significantly harder.
- 18:13Speaker 1: But that first year, it's all fucking glory. Man. You're
- 18:17Speaker 1: so happy. You're feeling like you got a new lease
- 18:20Speaker 1: on life. You're so much more appreciative of the opportunity.
- 18:24Speaker 1: It's just and especially when you're older, Like not to
- 18:28Speaker 1: sort of bring different kind of context, but you get
- 18:31Speaker 1: an entirely different perspective on your career and what you're
- 18:35Speaker 1: doing when you're an older person getting a second chance
- 18:39Speaker 1: to start fresh in something you love to do. Especially
- 18:42Speaker 1: a guy like Rogers, who we all know Rodgers psychopath.
- 18:45Speaker 1: Like the guy remembers horrible things people said to him
- 18:50Speaker 1: twenty five years ago. Like think about how amazing this
- 18:52Speaker 1: guy's life is, and he's still harpened on things someone
- 18:54Speaker 1: said to him when he was in junior college wherever
- 18:56Speaker 1: it was. That's what you want. You want that kind
- 18:59Speaker 1: of psycho like Brett Farve. That dude was dead, he
- 19:02Speaker 1: was left for dead. He went to Minnesota, took that
- 19:05Speaker 1: team a couple plays away from making a real serious
- 19:07Speaker 1: playoff run. Like that's what we're looking for. We're looking
- 19:10Speaker 1: for guys that that's the last bit of talent they have.
- 19:13Speaker 1: So for the revenge factor, I love the Rogers just
- 19:17Speaker 1: for a guy get into a new situation where I
- 19:19Speaker 1: think has talent. I love Derek Carr, So the rest
- 19:22Speaker 1: of the least doesn't really move the needle much for
- 19:24Speaker 1: me about you, but those two I don't care about.
- 19:26Speaker 1: Daniel Jones isn't leaving New York and also I don't
- 19:28Speaker 1: think he makes enough of a difference to make them
- 19:31Speaker 1: any more Super Bowl contenders in terms of the prices
- 19:33Speaker 1: that they're at. Yeah. I like the plan of take
- 19:37Speaker 1: some flyers on the NFC South because Car could end
- 19:41Speaker 1: up there. Yeah, and there are some worst to first
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- 21:51Speaker 1: Last week we talked a lot about Houston and Chicago
- 21:55Speaker 1: as Super Bowl long shots. So one of the questions
- 21:58Speaker 1: we have is doel either of those at their divisional prices.
- 22:04Speaker 1: I was gonna say most books, they might hang it,
- 22:06Speaker 1: but they'll take it down like it's just you're in
- 22:09Speaker 1: a weird point here of the off season of books.
- 22:11Speaker 1: They don't want to leave too much exposed. So maybe if, maybe,
- 22:15Speaker 1: if a couple of guys are operating the books at night,
- 22:17Speaker 1: they'll add it for the night and then we'll take
- 22:19Speaker 1: it down by the morning, just because they don't want
- 22:21Speaker 1: to have to be watching it all night. Because football,
- 22:23Speaker 1: you know, unless you're a real degenerate, like most of
- 22:26Speaker 1: us are not, many guys are locking their money up
- 22:28Speaker 1: for the next year, you know. So most of these
- 22:31Speaker 1: things divisional. You know, we'll be on top of it.
- 22:34Speaker 1: We'll give out where we think the value is. We're
- 22:35Speaker 1: Houston and Chicago. I got no issue of issue for
- 22:40Speaker 1: if you want to take a little on their divisional odds.
- 22:43Speaker 1: The reason I just do the Super Bowl is because
- 22:45Speaker 1: it's such huge long odds. It's just easier to take
- 22:48Speaker 1: a position during the season to hedge out where. You know,
- 22:51Speaker 1: I got pennies on the Jaguars at twelve to one.
- 22:54Speaker 1: Where I really made the big bets was at eight
- 22:56Speaker 1: to nine to one, right when August. We're really talking
- 22:58Speaker 1: about in August, when the books don't care. They'll take
- 23:01Speaker 1: as much as you want to throw down these divisional odds.
- 23:03Speaker 1: So I would love to sit here and tell you
- 23:05Speaker 1: to take these divisional sides. But the numbers are all
- 23:08Speaker 1: going to change from book to book, and there's just
- 23:10Speaker 1: not that much value, like you're Fire's not and I'm
- 23:12Speaker 1: not seeing divisional odds posted for you know, a lot
- 23:16Speaker 1: of books right now. Yeah, that's and that's that's how
- 23:18Speaker 1: it is in February, you know, yeah, yeah, and then
- 23:21Speaker 1: I'm looking in the Action Network gap right now, none
- 23:24Speaker 1: of the books that I follow have divisional odds posted. Simon,
- 23:30Speaker 1: during sharp Calls every week you'll mention a really sharp
- 23:34Speaker 1: group whose bet has influenced your play, and thus it
- 23:39Speaker 1: ends up influencing my play. Is the opposite? Also true?
- 23:44Speaker 1: Are there groups you don't respect who when they when
- 23:47Speaker 1: you hear they've come in on a game, it makes
- 23:50Speaker 1: you think we should fade them. Now, I'll just say
- 23:54Speaker 1: this once for the people listening out there, if you
- 23:57Speaker 1: make it to where I'm at, if you work for
- 23:59Speaker 1: one of these groups, there ain't no disrespect. Like these
- 24:02Speaker 1: dudes are all really fucking good at what they do.
- 24:05Speaker 1: So that's one of those where Yeah, in my back
- 24:09Speaker 1: of my mind, while I think this guy's passed his
- 24:11Speaker 1: prime and a little cooked and a little outdated, some
- 24:13Speaker 1: of his reason and some of the shit he'll say, Yeah,
- 24:16Speaker 1: But at the same time, that guy is gonna be
- 24:18Speaker 1: a winner, like he's gonna be able to win, that's
- 24:19Speaker 1: why he still has that job. So you know, that's
- 24:23Speaker 1: always tough where I would love to come in here
- 24:25Speaker 1: and be like, yeah, there's some groups I fade like
- 24:27Speaker 1: that just doesn't happened. But Twitter is another beast. Like
- 24:30Speaker 1: you know, I joke with chat all at the time.
- 24:33Speaker 1: People are always like, why don't you call people out
- 24:34Speaker 1: on Twitter? There's nothing to gain from it, Like all
- 24:37Speaker 1: I'm doing is shitting on a person that you know
- 24:40Speaker 1: they're just trying to live their dream. People like they
- 24:42Speaker 1: want to give out their ship picks and talk football.
- 24:45Speaker 1: Who am I to go in there and be like,
- 24:46Speaker 1: this guy's a fucking fraud. Fade his picks. You'll figure
- 24:49Speaker 1: that out. You follow people long enough, they're giving you
- 24:51Speaker 1: shit in for every week, you'll figure it out. Because
- 24:54Speaker 1: there's always gonna be those guys that are just like,
- 24:56Speaker 1: no one wins betting. This is just supposed to be fun.
- 24:58Speaker 1: It's just like, all right, we'll go follow that guy
- 25:00Speaker 1: fun losing money. If that's what you want to do,
- 25:03Speaker 1: go do it. So my old thing to people, if
- 25:05Speaker 1: you're on social media, there's literally people that their whole
- 25:07Speaker 1: thing is to fade them like they like, I follow guys.
- 25:11Speaker 1: They're funny as hell. They post shit they know is
- 25:13Speaker 1: going to be a sucker bet loser. When I see
- 25:16Speaker 1: them line up from my picks, I'm not gonna scares
- 25:18Speaker 1: the shit out of me because these people are lemons.
- 25:21Speaker 1: Like that's just how it is. Some people have a
- 25:23Speaker 1: really good skill, and they're good skill as they lose,
- 25:25Speaker 1: like they just can't pick winners, which you might want
- 25:28Speaker 1: to shoot on that person. That's a skill and if
- 25:30Speaker 1: they know it and they lean into it, you can
- 25:31Speaker 1: just fade them. You can make a profit off it.
- 25:33Speaker 1: So if you're looking for that, I'd say go to
- 25:35Speaker 1: social media for someone like me professionally. It's so rare
- 25:40Speaker 1: that I would just not respect someone that much in
- 25:42Speaker 1: my profession where I'm like, oh, I gotta fade that guy.
- 25:45Speaker 1: It just doesn't work that way. Eventually the trash gets
- 25:48Speaker 1: taken out. You slept up for a year or two,
- 25:50Speaker 1: they are gone like this just this ain't that type
- 25:53Speaker 1: of business. They're gonna keep let you lose their money
- 25:55Speaker 1: and the people paying for your picks and your groups
- 25:58Speaker 1: so got nothing like that. I mean, I mean, she
- 26:02Speaker 1: had to talk about the time there's there's there's certain
- 26:04Speaker 1: sharp calls, like certain groups where yes, they'll scare the
- 26:07Speaker 1: shit out of me. You know these ones I talked about,
- 26:09Speaker 1: these three sixty five guys, I bet maybe four or
- 26:11Speaker 1: five times a year. That's a true move the needle.
- 26:14Speaker 1: If I'm on the wrong side of them, I don't
- 26:16Speaker 1: even care. If I have seven figures down, I get out.
- 26:19Speaker 1: These dudes. They're the best. They're literally what I aspire
- 26:22Speaker 1: to be. They're just they're the best. So the guys
- 26:24Speaker 1: we joke about had time machine. So those guys scare
- 26:27Speaker 1: the shit out of me. Other groups, you know, I'm
- 26:29Speaker 1: just like everyone else. I got an ego. I'll back.
- 26:31Speaker 1: I'll go back and forth of these guys, you know,
- 26:34Speaker 1: and we'll try to figure out and find out why
- 26:36Speaker 1: they're on one side. And if you know what I'm
- 26:38Speaker 1: overlooking contradicts that or whatever, I'll get out of the bet.
- 26:41Speaker 1: Like I don't have that much pride. I respect everyone's
- 26:44Speaker 1: opinion for the most part. So very rare where there
- 26:48Speaker 1: is a group out there that I will look down on.
- 26:50Speaker 1: But I think I, like anyone else, right, there's always
- 26:52Speaker 1: gonna be people you look down on. So I would
- 26:55Speaker 1: never come on here though, and do that right. I
- 26:56Speaker 1: would never come in here and say I really like
- 26:59Speaker 1: this one side, now out because it's group's on the
- 27:01Speaker 1: same side. So um, if you know that one, I'm
- 27:04Speaker 1: trying to think what game was. It might have been
- 27:05Speaker 1: the jets of my Amy game earlier in the year.
- 27:08Speaker 1: That's one where me and Chad literally got off this
- 27:10Speaker 1: show and I had multiple guys calling me being like,
- 27:13Speaker 1: you're you're stepping in at this really smart group is
- 27:15Speaker 1: on the other side that That's again, that's my favorite
- 27:18Speaker 1: part about this show and a lot of stuff I do,
- 27:20Speaker 1: where you know these guys are looking out for me.
- 27:22Speaker 1: That's kind of the community you're in where we all
- 27:25Speaker 1: want to win. The enemy, I said all the time.
- 27:26Speaker 1: The enemy is not each other. The enemy is the book.
- 27:29Speaker 1: And I think on Twitter and other things, it's not
- 27:31Speaker 1: real life, like these people calling each other around and
- 27:34Speaker 1: talking shit about people. It's just not really like. That's
- 27:37Speaker 1: why you'll never really catch me on Twitter. Unless they
- 27:39Speaker 1: are a scumbag that sells picks like they're ship picks.
- 27:42Speaker 1: I'm happy to call that person out. But if they're
- 27:43Speaker 1: just giving out free content on Twitter, I let them be.
- 27:46Speaker 1: That's just how my view is the whole thing, the
- 27:49Speaker 1: only thing. The only person you should fade is Darren Velt.
- 27:54Speaker 1: Remember Darren's actually interesting question. Curious to hear your answer
- 28:01Speaker 1: because you're closer to this age than I am. Yeah,
- 28:04Speaker 1: and I think it also will play into a later question.
- 28:09Speaker 1: Clyde Edwards Hilaire, who was inactive for a lot of
- 28:14Speaker 1: the Casey playoff run Yeah, skipped the Chiefs Super Bowl
- 28:19Speaker 1: parade to walk in New York's Fashion Week at age
- 28:22Speaker 1: twenty three. What could have made you skip your own
- 28:27Speaker 1: Super Bowl parade? I would say, he's young, just jealousy
- 28:33Speaker 1: and anger, and that's the only thing I can think
- 28:34Speaker 1: of is no, no, But what could have made you
- 28:37Speaker 1: skip your own So at twenty three, at twenty three,
- 28:40Speaker 1: what would you have what would have made you skip it?
- 28:45Speaker 1: I mean at twenty three, you're just stupid. You don't
- 28:47Speaker 1: know you're stupid because you think you got a lot
- 28:49Speaker 1: of the answer, especially very successful like this kid is
- 28:52Speaker 1: at twenty three. Me myself at twenty three, man, I
- 28:56Speaker 1: was like, just get it into this whole. That was
- 28:59Speaker 1: my first official year of being a pro sports bedder.
- 29:02Speaker 1: So that mindset then would have been all about the money,
- 29:07Speaker 1: like I was very money hungry, especially at twenty three.
- 29:09Speaker 1: So if they were paying me to be at the
- 29:11Speaker 1: New York Fashion Show and not at the Super Bowl parade,
- 29:14Speaker 1: I guess at twenty three out have been entice, especially
- 29:16Speaker 1: if they'd sat me for the Super Bowl. I was
- 29:18Speaker 1: all pissed off about it. But now at thirty three,
- 29:21Speaker 1: Hell no, dude, you never know if you're gonna make
- 29:23Speaker 1: it back. It's the same thing as you know, people
- 29:25Speaker 1: shopping on Carson Wentz saying he never won a Super Bowl.
- 29:28Speaker 1: He did, he got us the one seed, and he
- 29:29Speaker 1: was just hurt. He was on that Eagles team. So
- 29:33Speaker 1: that's that's heart breaking. Here. I didn't know Claude skipt
- 29:35Speaker 1: the parade, so yeah, I think he's just young an immature.
- 29:38Speaker 1: He's young and immature at age twenty three. Literally nothing
- 29:43Speaker 1: like I'm thinking back, that's when I was twenty three.
- 29:46Speaker 1: I was working at Sports Illustrated. I was just out
- 29:48Speaker 1: of college. It was my dream job. Yeah, and like
- 29:55Speaker 1: there was there was nothing that could have made me
- 29:59Speaker 1: skip a Super Bowl parade because I'm thinking, like the
- 30:03Speaker 1: stakes at SI to me were the equivalent of being
- 30:06Speaker 1: in the NFL and trying to reach the pinnacle at
- 30:11Speaker 1: the time. That's what it was, right, and like it's
- 30:15Speaker 1: all I cared about, It's all I thought about, and
- 30:17Speaker 1: I think that it's a really good compliment to the
- 30:21Speaker 1: next question I want to ask, which is if Simon
- 30:24Speaker 1: and Chad could go back in time and give their
- 30:27Speaker 1: younger and younger selves advice, what would it be? Also,
- 30:33Speaker 1: are aliens real? You go first? What to answer the
- 30:37Speaker 1: first part? First? I would say answer the second part first,
- 30:42Speaker 1: our aliens real? And then what advice? Well, my first
- 30:46Speaker 1: thing would be to this person is go eat some
- 30:48Speaker 1: mushrooms and then you'll realize really quickly you are an alien,
- 30:51Speaker 1: my friend. You're onnest on a plane, it traveling through
- 30:54Speaker 1: space at thousands and thousands of miles per hour. Yeah,
- 30:57Speaker 1: I'm one of those people that I think they are.
- 31:01Speaker 1: You know, me and Chad, we don't have enough time here.
- 31:03Speaker 1: But that's like one of my big things I like
- 31:04Speaker 1: I'm into is humans history, like our past history or
- 31:09Speaker 1: our futtory going forward and learned about the universe. So
- 31:13Speaker 1: I would say simple math says, yes, there are alien life.
- 31:16Speaker 1: We can just do the math. But the little secret
- 31:19Speaker 1: of space is space is ever expanding. So the way
- 31:23Speaker 1: it's design is that it makes us. Every day we
- 31:25Speaker 1: get further away from other life. So it's one of
- 31:29Speaker 1: those things where it's like I catch twenty two of
- 31:32Speaker 1: I hope aliens are real, but if they come here,
- 31:35Speaker 1: you know, it's the big fear of the Christopher Columbus
- 31:38Speaker 1: finding the natives. It's just it could be a really
- 31:41Speaker 1: bad deal. But as we get, as we get future,
- 31:45Speaker 1: you know, into the future here with this whole AI
- 31:47Speaker 1: thing that me and Chad talked about every now and then,
- 31:50Speaker 1: it just feels like eventually we're gonna find some drones
- 31:53Speaker 1: or whatever it is, and it's just not gonna be aliens.
- 31:55Speaker 1: It's just gonna be computers, whatever it is. So I'm
- 31:58Speaker 1: one of those in my lifetime. I hope we find aliens,
- 32:00Speaker 1: but I'm also cool if we ever we don't, because
- 32:04Speaker 1: I don't know if it's gonna be good or bad.
- 32:06Speaker 1: They're already here, buddy to that. What's your advice? Oh
- 32:12Speaker 1: so tough man, I would say, you know, my younger self, dude,
- 32:17Speaker 1: I was just so anxious because I really, like we
- 32:20Speaker 1: just talked about, used to be money hungry. Now that
- 32:22Speaker 1: I've made them money. It really I tell people at
- 32:25Speaker 1: the time. It's just like, dude, if you can just
- 32:26Speaker 1: find something that makes you happy to do, do that
- 32:29Speaker 1: like money, Yes, it's nice to being comfortable on all
- 32:31Speaker 1: these other things you're always stressing. Like there isn't a
- 32:34Speaker 1: day that goes by. I'm not stressing about my job
- 32:36Speaker 1: or money or whatever it is in life. I think
- 32:39Speaker 1: that just comes with age, as you get a little
- 32:40Speaker 1: more relaxed, as you get older and you get more comfortable.
- 32:44Speaker 1: I'm just not at that stage in life yet. So
- 32:45Speaker 1: for my younger self, I would tell him just keep
- 32:50Speaker 1: anyone out here. I would say, fine, try to figure
- 32:53Speaker 1: out what you want to do in your twenties and
- 32:54Speaker 1: then work like a madman, like, work really hard. Of course,
- 32:58Speaker 1: have a normal life, have a girlfriend, whatever you want
- 33:00Speaker 1: to do, well, work really hard, because once you reach
- 33:04Speaker 1: your thirties, sure you can ease up a little bit,
- 33:07Speaker 1: but you won't want to because you're gonna find what
- 33:08Speaker 1: you do you enjoy and the working hard part you
- 33:11Speaker 1: rip your rewards. Like anything in life. You can be
- 33:14Speaker 1: the hardest working guy ever in McDonald's and work your
- 33:16Speaker 1: way up like it's just that's how life is. You
- 33:19Speaker 1: can work hard and work your way up, but there's
- 33:21Speaker 1: some dead end jobs, or you can work your ass
- 33:22Speaker 1: off and that's it, Like you're not really going. We're
- 33:24Speaker 1: kind of stuck. So I kind of always tell people
- 33:27Speaker 1: trying to find something you can move up and make
- 33:28Speaker 1: more money than just bust your ass, because it's rewarding
- 33:31Speaker 1: in life, where you know, I know plenty of guys
- 33:33Speaker 1: that hardy didn't do shit in their twenties too, and
- 33:36Speaker 1: we just hit our thirties and they're spinning their wheels.
- 33:38Speaker 1: So that would in my fear of my younger self
- 33:41Speaker 1: is don't get comfortable. Just always have the little bit
- 33:44Speaker 1: of looking over your shoulder. I have a fire up
- 33:45Speaker 1: your ass because it works out for you in your thirties,
- 33:47Speaker 1: working really hard in your twenties. Advice, do the work,
- 33:56Speaker 1: keep ego out of it. Don't set arbitrary age based deadlines.
- 34:03Speaker 1: I gotta do X by twenty five, I gotta do
- 34:06Speaker 1: X by thirty. Be nice, keep your eyes open. And
- 34:12Speaker 1: the last part means basically, you can do those first
- 34:16Speaker 1: four things, but if you're passionate about what you're doing,
- 34:21Speaker 1: to Simon's point, and you want to keep driving, if
- 34:25Speaker 1: you don't keep your eyes open to where the opportunities
- 34:27Speaker 1: are and you're doing all the other stuff. Whatever you
- 34:31Speaker 1: define success as might not come your way because it's
- 34:34Speaker 1: not just gonna You can't just put it out into
- 34:37Speaker 1: the universe and say, oh, it's going to happen like
- 34:39Speaker 1: you kind of got to keep your eyes open and
- 34:40Speaker 1: see where the opportunities are. And if you're doing all
- 34:43Speaker 1: those other things, then you'll find you know, for lack
- 34:47Speaker 1: of a better term, the right product, market fit and
- 34:54Speaker 1: achieve all the things that you're hoping to achieve, whether
- 34:56Speaker 1: that's relationships, work, family, etc. Etc. Again, see easier said
- 35:03Speaker 1: than done. When you know I'm on the other side
- 35:05Speaker 1: of fifty, then Simon who's barely on their side of thirty. Yeah, Well,
- 35:08Speaker 1: the one thing you said I think was perfect of
- 35:11Speaker 1: don't worry about what the guy next to you is
- 35:13Speaker 1: doing in life like that is truly the cancer of
- 35:16Speaker 1: all candid your soul because again I was twenty one
- 35:19Speaker 1: twenty two and I first come to this type of
- 35:21Speaker 1: line of work. I had no college degree, and I
- 35:25Speaker 1: was not broke, but like close to it because I've
- 35:28Speaker 1: lost all my money, you know, the growing pains of
- 35:30Speaker 1: sports betting. So going on Facebook or Instagram and seeing
- 35:34Speaker 1: my friends who were partying in college or getting their
- 35:36Speaker 1: first job or doing all that other stuff. Was horrible
- 35:39Speaker 1: to my mental health. So I always say to people,
- 35:42Speaker 1: if you can't handle that shit, just the lead and
- 35:44Speaker 1: get out of mind because it does nothing for you,
- 35:45Speaker 1: doesn't improve your life in any way. Worrying about what
- 35:48Speaker 1: other people are doing in life. So yeah, I'm right
- 35:51Speaker 1: there with Chad. Please just focus on yourself, not worry
- 35:53Speaker 1: about other people. Last answer I'll give, and then again
- 35:58Speaker 1: we're gonna go to some more questions for the Thursday episode.
- 36:01Speaker 1: To make sure you subscribe to the favorites an Apple
- 36:04Speaker 1: Podcasts and Spotify, we'll have more questions on Thursday. Are
- 36:07Speaker 1: aliens real? Carl Sagan, one of the defining scientific thinkers
- 36:16Speaker 1: of the past century. It is egotistical of us to
- 36:23Speaker 1: believe that we are the only intelligent life in the universe.
- 36:29Speaker 1: Chances are the aliens are here. It could be sharks,
- 36:33Speaker 1: They could be ambas of some form. It could be
- 36:37Speaker 1: chat GPT, which is kind of freaking me out lately.
- 36:40Speaker 1: Whatever it is, the aliens are here or they're on
- 36:44Speaker 1: their way. But I promise you we are not the
- 36:47Speaker 1: only intelligent life in the universe. In fact, more than
- 36:51Speaker 1: likely we're the least intelligent life in the universe. And
- 36:57Speaker 1: on that note, as a reminder, it is the NFL
- 36:59Speaker 1: officeas and now is a great time to check out
- 37:01Speaker 1: Action Networks award winning lineup of podcast Big Bets on Campus.
- 37:06Speaker 1: With March Madness coming up, it's a must listen. Payoff
- 37:09Speaker 1: Pitch Our MLB betting podcast returns next week with new episodes,
- 37:14Speaker 1: and don't forget Running Hot. Our NASCAR betting podcast just
- 37:17Speaker 1: debuted and crushed it with its Daytona Bets, so check
- 37:22Speaker 1: that out. This has been the favorite podcast from the
- 37:25Speaker 1: Volume podcast Network. I'm Chad Melman, He's Simon Hunter. Our
- 37:28Speaker 1: producers Matt Mitchell. Thanks very much for the questions. We'll
- 37:31Speaker 1: get to more of them for Thursday's episode. Download the
- 37:34Speaker 1: podcast from Apple Podcasts, from Spotify wherever you get your
- 37:37Speaker 1: podcast rate whe you subscribe and just five stars say
- 37:39Speaker 1: whatever you want feedback as a gift to listen all
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