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UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Fall.
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: System's gone clear.
• 0:07
  Speaker 3: We left.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: What is going on?
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Everybody? Hope you're having a great week so far. We're
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: talking some fights and it is not on Saturday. It
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: is on Sunday, the rare Sunday UFC Card, UFC Freedom
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: two fifty at the White House. I'm excited. With that
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: being said, I do not like seeing seven fights. We
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: talked about it a little bit last week, though, I said,
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: all right, DraftKings better do the right thing. I don't
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: even know if there's a thing as a classic seven
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: game slate. Hit up the Rep Dan the man. He
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: did confirm that it would be a captain showdown about
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: twenty three thousand people, so similar similar to what the
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: NBA like conference finals were for showdown wise captain format
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: many are probably familiar from NFL or NBA or MLB
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: for that matter. But it's six spots, but you have
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: to pay one point five excuse me, one point five
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: x the price tag for whoever you do put at
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: the captain spot, and then you get one point five
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: x the points for whoever you put up there as well.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: So a little more interesting dynamic in the sense of
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: you do need to get that right captain and prices changed,
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: so you don't just have six fights of the seven
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: on the classic slate that will be optimal. They did
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: it right. I still think it's pretty difficult. We will
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: talk through the strategy, go fight by fight like always,
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: Big Marley, any initial thoughts on this card from real life.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Obviously this has never been done. If you just want
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: to talk like either temperature wise, anything you want to
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: mention before we do, go break down fight by fight.
• 2:05
  Speaker 4: Yeah, man, everything about this is different, like trying to
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: build lineups is super different. Sunday, we got only seven fights.
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: It's gonna be at the freaking White House. Outside. The
• 2:17
  Speaker 4: weather is looking like ninety degrees, possibly during the day,
• 2:20
  Speaker 4: maybe showers at night. But I did see they have
• 2:23
  Speaker 4: a ran cover if that happens, so I'd imagine it's
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: gonna be fine. But weatherwise, I would look for gassers
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: to gas faster. Other than that, I'm not really taking
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: too much into account. I feel like everybody's gonna be
• 2:38
  Speaker 4: prepared enough. But you can't really just prepare for your
• 2:41
  Speaker 4: your cardio for ninety degrees when you're used to.
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: Fighting an ac.
• 2:46
  Speaker 4: So I mean, we'll talk about it as we go along,
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: but I think this is the trickiest card we've ever had.
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: I've been trying to build lineups by hand, and man,
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: they're ugly, dude, So I don't know what what I'm
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: about to do. I'm looking forward to talking to you
• 3:00
  Speaker 4: that and hopefully you can help me out. But I
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: don't really play the captain slate, so we'll see how
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: this goes.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: I guess yeah, I don't definitely don't play it much myself.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: I play cash games, do not for tournaments. I have
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: been looking a little bit ahead of time though, how
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: lineups do look when people play it. The problem is
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: it's usually like a seventeen hundred person tournament, and now
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: your time's in that by ten or whatever, maybe even
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: more than that, like a fifteen x increase in the
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: price in the prize pool and the player pool. So
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: it's difficult. So my initial thoughts, yeah, for weather report,
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: what's going on? YOUFC pickles or you have C pickles,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: you have see picks and balances. Big Marley just did
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: give that weather report. My initial thoughts is, I don't
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: really know how to do it because it's almost like
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: going to ruin. I guess my whole slate breakdown. So
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: when we go through each fight, we'll talk captains, we'll
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: talk flex. What I will say though, is when you're
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: talking captains, if you're playing a favorite, you are gonna
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: probably want the highest score on the slate. And then
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: if you are picking an underdog, they can get there
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: if they score like eighty five. With just how roster
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: construction and pricing works, that could be enough to be
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: up top if only one dog wins on this card
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: and you do have that dog as the captain. So
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: if you're picking a lot of favors and you do
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: have one underdog winning, I definitely would mix in that
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: underdog at the captain spot. Leaving money is obviously always viable.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: Mauricio Hoofi is the most expensive. These are flex pricings
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: at ten k. So if you take out Hoofi and
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: go like Sean O'Malley, let's say, at the captain and
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: nothing else has changed, and you leave that money even
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: if you have Hoofi in the flex, Shawn O'Malley up top,
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: but you have the money to flip it.
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: That is definitely a way to get different in the
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: showdown streets.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: With all that being said, Kim asked us earlier in
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: the week, like advice like how to get solo?
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: Are you going to do that?
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: I do not think this is the best card to
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: like shoot for solo shippers. I think if you're chopping
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: with even probably like thirty people, you're good with that.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: On this card that is similar to more NBA Showdown
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: than it is NFL Showdown. A lot of good lineups
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: rate outs in for NBA Showdown with like thirty forty dupes.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Because it's a projection game. MMA UFC is not a
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: projection game as much. But we only have seven fights
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: and six we have to pick six fighters. That does
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: include stacking, but six of the seven fights are expected
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: to finish, so of all these finish early. That means
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: the losers probably won't score much, which makes stacking a
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: little more difficult. So we stacking is viable. We'll talk
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: about it in each matchup if we like it, if
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: we don't like it. But yeah, more so it's you're
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: picking six winners, you're gonna have to mix in some underdogs,
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: and I would mix.
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: In some underdogs up top.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: Any initial thoughts, any broad slay, captam mote, anything like
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: that before you go fight by fight.
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: No, man, I'm struggling big time handbuilding, So I'm kind
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: of just waiting for projections to come out and see
• 5:51
  Speaker 4: what I can do with an optimizer and see what
• 5:53
  Speaker 4: that does for me. Br His hard is tough, man.
• 5:57
  Speaker 4: I think you just got to get weird with it.
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Sure, And I do just want to share a homepage
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: over here at Shipping Nation because I think it's a
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: great week to use sabersim to get uncomfortable, and Sabersim
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: does allow that handbuilds us a lot easier to be comfortable.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: Shipinnation dot com right now, we do have our best
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: deal usually ninety nine dollars for the month.
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: Now only forty nine dollars.
• 6:16
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• 6:23
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• 6:26
  Speaker 1: this on Wednesday, even if you're watching Thursday or Friday.
• 6:28
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  Speaker 1: Joined the Nation for some more packages nineteen dollars four
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• 6:51
  Speaker 2: I definitely think you will enjoy it. MMA.
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  Speaker 1: We had a great week and last week in the
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Discord a lot of winners, so we will be looking
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: to run it back this week.
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: All right, let's share this, let's zoom in and we
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: will talk.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: The first fight of the night an absolute banger, Diego
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: Lopez minus one fifty five taken on Steve Garcia plus
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: one thirty five minus two fifty for this fight to finish,
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Lopez plus one ten inside the distance Garcia plus two
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: twenty five Diego round one plus two to seventy five
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: Steve Garcia plus four fifty. When we're talking line movement,
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Diego Lopez opened minus three hundred, was only about seventeen
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: minutes later, though, he found himself as a minus one
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: forty seven favorite, and Money stayed around there for the
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: most part. I think this is one of the best
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: fights on the card. I will be mixing in both
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: sides for the captain spot, because if Diego Lopez is
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: the highest score, run the slate and you don't play
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: Ili up top or Hoofi up top or whatever.
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: That's a way you can get different. I also think Steve.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Garcia and I actually probably prefer Steve Garcia at the
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: captain spot because it's.
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: The pricing thing.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: It allows you to get on a different roster construction
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: than if you did put in Diego Lopez. And I
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: think Ourarcia has just as much upside as Diego Lopez,
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: which is a first round knockout. Both these guys will
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: be swinging. Diego Lopez has the advantage on the ground.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure how much he'll be able to use
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: it though, so I'm gonna throw it to you on
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: that note, talk real life. Is Diego gonna wrestle? Is
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: this just gonna stay on the feet? How do you
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: see this fight going? And what does that mean for DFS?
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: Actually, I don't know why I had a three start.
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: I just changed it to a four star because I
• 8:24
  Speaker 4: like this fight quite a bit.
• 8:26
  Speaker 5: Uh.
• 8:26
  Speaker 4: It is right there in the mid range, so I
• 8:28
  Speaker 4: feel like you almost have to target it as well.
• 8:30
  Speaker 4: And I like the fact that it is it's a
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: striker versus grappler matchup as and we know who has
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: a clear edge where the fight takes place. I mean,
• 8:39
  Speaker 4: I do think Lopez is gonna look to wrestle. I
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: spent especially early, like when the fight gets started, he
• 8:44
  Speaker 4: should be looking to wrestle right away before Garcia is
• 8:47
  Speaker 4: sweating and all and all slippery.
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: Uh. So I think in rounds.
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: Two and rounds three, it's gonna be harder for Diego
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: to to wrestle and grapple.
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: It's gonna be harder to lock up submissions.
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: So I think he's kind of got to put him
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: away early or if he can really just control him
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: on the ground, He's fine with the striking. I think
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: he can hang minute to minute, but you don't want
• 9:07
  Speaker 4: to go power for power with Garcia. And if it
• 9:10
  Speaker 4: is a minute to minute striking match, I still lean
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: with Garcia. So I'm fine with both sides of this fight.
• 9:16
  Speaker 4: I think Garcia is live for a knockout in any round.
• 9:20
  Speaker 4: I also think he is live to win a decision
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: if he's not taken down.
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: And then Lopez, I think he is.
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: One of the four three or four most likely guys
• 9:31
  Speaker 4: to win in the first round because I do think
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: he has a big submission grappling advantage if he can
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: get it there, and that's what I'm picking a happen
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: first round submission for Lopez, so I prefer that. But
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: I've been building lineups and it's really hard to get
• 9:46
  Speaker 4: Lopez as a captain, so there's been a lot of
• 9:49
  Speaker 4: times where I've had to move down to Garcia as
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: my captain. And I do think you're almost forced to
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: put an underdog at captain because if you're putting a
• 9:59
  Speaker 4: favor especially an expensive favorite, at captain, then it's for rap.
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: For the rest of your favorites, you gotta go almost
• 10:04
  Speaker 4: every other underdog on the car. You might be able
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: to get two expensive favorites and that's it. So it's
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: gonna be super tough. And this is one of those
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: fights where I'm fine starting my lineup with the Lopez
• 10:15
  Speaker 4: moving down to Garcia because I'm not confident enough in Garcia.
• 10:18
  Speaker 4: I mean in Lopez to just throw all my money
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: in the pot on him.
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: If I need to be way.
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: Overweight on Garcia just because salary makes me do that,
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: then I'm okay.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: I want to be overweight on this fight in both
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Probably if I was overweight both guys at the captain spot,
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: I would be happy.
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: This is one of my favorite fights.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: The target on the car and I do think it
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: gets overlooked to an extent with people wanting to put
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: Illy up top more and Josh hok it up top
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: more so. The Lopez savings, even though it is six hundred,
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: it goes a little bent. And Lopez if he gets
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: a first round finish, which what was plus two seventy
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: five we said plus yeah, plus two seventy five, I
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: mean that's pretty good. Plus two seventy five is twenty
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: six percent. Think his captain ownership comes in lower than that.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: And then the Steve Garcia again because of his price take,
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: he has just as much upside. This is a great fight.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be back and forth. There's multiple
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: knockdown upside for Garcia. Lopez has multiple takedown upside minus
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: two to fifty for this fight to finish. I'm in
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: on this one for sure, both in the flex and
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: the captain. It is one of my favorite fights to
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: target on the card. We'll get to the next fight.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Bon Nickel and Kyle Daucas. Bo Nickel a decent sized
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: favorite at minus three thirty. Kyle Daucas plus two to
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: seventy the fight to finish minus two to ten. Bon
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Nickel minus one twenty five. Inside the distance, Dorcas plus
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: four hundred bon Nickel in round one is plus two forty.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: I was surprised to see plus two forty in round
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: one twenty nine percent. I'm actually picking this fight to
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: go the distance. I do respect Kyle Daucas, I mean
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: coming back from his after he got cut from the UFC,
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: A good date or good outing against Michelle Pereira. He's
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: just a well rounded fighter who will fight for your dollar.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: I think he's good enough grappling wise, that bo just
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: won't manhandle him on the ground, and I think he
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: might just strike a little bit like he did against
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Paul Craig. If he does that game plan and he
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: doesn't try and go out there and just wrestle wrestle
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: wrestle and blow his load, we can be looking at
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: a boring fifteen minutes striking math where neither's on the winner.
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: I actually prefer Dawcas. I think again, it comes back
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: to kneading salary on the slate.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: I'm picking illy. I want to play some Illi. I'm
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: picking hoke it. I want to play some hoke it.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: If you are doing that, you need dogs on this card,
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: and I like Doccas more than Chandler. I like Doccas
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: more than the Hobby, and I like Steve Garcia more
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: than both of those guys as well. So yeah, I'm
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: gonna be playing the first two dogs to start it off.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: I don't love the upside for Dowcas, but he'll fight
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: for my dollar and any win from any from an
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: underdog this week could be enough. I'm gonna play some
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: bow Nickel, but I'm curious to see how much you
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: think he comes out and wrestles in this one, because
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: that's where he really hits a ceiling.
• 12:58
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm not sure on this one, that one where
• 13:00
  Speaker 4: I like both sides of the fight. I like Nickel
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: for his wrestling potential. I do think he has three
• 13:05
  Speaker 4: rounds of heavily wrestling potential, especially if he is coming
• 13:09
  Speaker 4: out with a sweat when it gets started and he's
• 13:11
  Speaker 4: feeling like he's not going to get submitted. I think
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: he could completely control him all his fight on the
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: ground if he wanted to. But Dacas is a tricky
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: submission grappler. He's a good striker too. I think the
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: striking is gonna be really close in this fight. Either
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: guy could get knocked out, but I don't like look
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: at them as knockout punchers. I think he would be
• 13:32
  Speaker 4: a close but yeah, more boring striking match if it
• 13:35
  Speaker 4: is on the feet. And that's why I have it
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: as a three star compared to the four star in
• 13:39
  Speaker 4: the last fight. But yeah, Dawcas, man, I think Dacas
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: could knock him out. I think he could submit him.
• 13:44
  Speaker 4: I think he could win minutes in this fight on
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: the feet too. So I think salary for salary, Dawcas
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: is my preferred play. But it's when I was building,
• 13:55
  Speaker 4: I mean, it was the same thing. I would be
• 13:56
  Speaker 4: starting with Nickel and it's like, holy crap, I can't
• 13:58
  Speaker 4: afford this, And then I would go, so what we
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: can do with Daucas instead of Nickel, and those lineups
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: just fit better. So I feel like Dacas or Garcia
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: is probably gonna have to be in a lot of
• 14:08
  Speaker 4: the lineups just based on salary.
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: Forcing you to do that.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: Mute, yeah, mute, donkey, Yeah, I agree. I mean, we're
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: playing a salary based game. There's only so many options
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: on the card. If you guys have DraftKings up right
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: now when you're watching the show, I recommend you to
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: go and start building lineups, so you do realize, like
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: we're saying, how hard it is. If you do want
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: Illy in that just say you're on justin Gaechie pretty heavy,
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: then it makes it a lot easier. If you know
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: you're not going to play much Ilia, then Gaechie will
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: be a staple. But obviously know the floor is really
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: low there. Or the same can be said about this
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: next fight. If you're very high on Michael Chandler, he's
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: going to be low own. He's the cheapest fighter, but
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: he is the biggest dog at plus five hundred with
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: Mauricia Hoofy minus seven hundred on the other side minus
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: five hundred for this fight to finish Hoofy minus three
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: twenty five inside the distance Chandler plus six fifty.
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: With this being said, I don't love this fight. I
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: plan on being underweight. The reason I'll be underweight Hoofy.
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: We keep talking about.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: How tough salary is, and he's the most expensive fighter
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: on the card. He's also a slight underdog to win
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: in round one at plus one thirty five. But if
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: this fight gets out of round one, I think he
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: at least needs two knockdowns to probably get there. Since
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: he's not wrestling. I'm just gonna hope that maybe he
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: gets a second round knockout, a third round knockout, a
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: first round knockout that doesn't score enough.
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't say I have more interest in Michael Chandler.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: But let's say Chandler comes out there and gets two
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: or three takedowns in round one and puts up a
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: twenty two point round one performance, gets knocked out midway
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: through the second he scores twenty nine. There is a
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: chance that five K twenty nine can be enough if
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: every single favorite on this card wins. And that's what
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: makes this so interesting in a game theory perspective. Going
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: to captain wise, I think he more than likely needs
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: to win. If you go Chandler, you can jam so
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: many favorites, but you're almost hoping that they're like low
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: scoring favorite wins, which I don't really see he with
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: six of the seven fights winning. So I don't love
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: the idea of Chandler at captain. It will be very
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: low on if you're trying to get unique. I will
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: play some Chandler flex just because his price and the
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: nature of the slate. I really don't like Kofi much though,
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: and I really don't like this fight too much because
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: I do think Hoofy knocks him out at some point.
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: I want your breakdown in this and then how much
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: you think Chandler wrestles early yet?
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: I mean, I think Chandler has to either knock him
• 16:26
  Speaker 4: out in the first round because.
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: He's a gasser.
• 16:29
  Speaker 4: I mean him and Lewis are my gassers, and Chandler
• 16:32
  Speaker 4: if he wrestles early, he's gonna gas. I think he
• 16:35
  Speaker 4: could have success early and put up some points, but
• 16:38
  Speaker 4: I'm not gonna get any Chandler in the Captain because
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: I want a better chance at a win. But I
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: do think Chandler in the flex makes sense. And I
• 16:46
  Speaker 4: also think you could stack this fight and kind of
• 16:49
  Speaker 4: hopes that he puts up twenty points in a loss
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: then and then Hoofy puts up one hundred and ten
• 16:57
  Speaker 4: with a knockdown or two along the way with the
• 16:59
  Speaker 4: first around knockout. But I just think Hoofy is gonna
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: smoke him on the feet. I think he's so much better.
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: He's gonna look a lot bigger, longer, and just younger, faster.
• 17:09
  Speaker 4: He's gonna have so many advantages on the feet. Other
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: than maybe raw power, especially right away. I just think
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: Hoofy's gonna knock him out at some point, and the
• 17:18
  Speaker 4: more Chandler gases, I mean, the more he wrestles, the
• 17:21
  Speaker 4: quicker he's gonna gas, and it's just gonna be a
• 17:24
  Speaker 4: wrap shortly after.
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: I think.
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: So.
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: I do like Hoofy, but I do think you also
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: kind of need him to be round one or a
• 17:31
  Speaker 4: multiple knockdown type of guy. So my, uh, my way
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: of doing this one is I'm okay stacking it. I'm
• 17:40
  Speaker 4: okay using Chandler as a flex and I'm okay with
• 17:43
  Speaker 4: Hoofy as a captain, just because I think that would
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: make me different. I don't think he'll have a whole
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: lot of interest in the captain because he is so expensive.
• 17:51
  Speaker 4: But this is more of a flex fight for me
• 17:54
  Speaker 4: because he is gonna be hard to afford, and Chandler
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: I would just want his losing points.
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: I really don't see Chandler winning this fight.
• 18:00
  Speaker 4: I think he's gonna get knocked out in the first
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: seven and a half eight minutes.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: For me, this is my second least favorite on the card.
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: I can see the thing. What you're talking about stacking,
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure I get to it myself. But yeah,
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: Hoofy's priced, say, being the most expensive, I think other
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: people cheaper have just as much upside and a way
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: to get different and leave money. And then Chandler in
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: the flex I will be playing some but I don't
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: love it, since I don't really think he wins. Hoofy
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: has taken a little money since open open minus five
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: hundred now minus seven hundred.
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: Don't love the fight. Let's get to a fight.
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: I absolutely do love, though, and that's Josh Hokit minus
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: four to fifty taken on Derek Lewis plus three to
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: fifty minus seven hundred for this fight to finish, Hokit
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: minus two sixty five inside of this since Lewis plus
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: three sixty five hok It in round one plus one
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: ten open plus one twenty five Derek Lewis in round
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: one open plus five fifty now plus five hundred. I've
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: hogged the first hole or the one hole each of
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: these first couple fights. I'll throw it to you. What
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: are you doing?
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: Hok It's my guy. I'm trying to get as much
• 19:07
  Speaker 4: hoke It as I can. I think Lewis is kind
• 19:11
  Speaker 4: of like a first sixty second knockout or bust, and
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: this fight, he's.
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: Gonna be a lot bigger.
• 19:17
  Speaker 4: He's gonna be more powerful in that first sixty seconds.
• 19:21
  Speaker 4: But if hoke gets one takedown, I think it's over
• 19:24
  Speaker 4: for Lewis. I just don't even think he's gonna have
• 19:26
  Speaker 4: the energy to be able to get back up and
• 19:28
  Speaker 4: then have the aggression to keep going forward and landing
• 19:31
  Speaker 4: that knockout shot. So I think it's one takedown and
• 19:34
  Speaker 4: then hok It just lands a ton of strikes on
• 19:37
  Speaker 4: the ground until it's over, or hoke It knocks him
• 19:40
  Speaker 4: out on the feet, or Lewis gases in two minutes
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: and then hok It takes over. But I'm just gonna
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: fade Lewis on this card. He definitely has one hundred
• 19:49
  Speaker 4: and twenty five point upside because he's got that knockout
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: power in the first sixty seconds. Uh, But he's also
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: gonna have enough interest to where I would rather the
• 19:59
  Speaker 4: field take those chance, and I.
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: Want to find a way to get overweight on hok It.
• 20:03
  Speaker 4: Last time I was on vacation, hoke It got me
• 20:06
  Speaker 4: ticket into the World Championship.
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: So let's run it back, ok It.
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: We let's running back hoked there you go. Yeah, big Marley,
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: we got our boy Kenny Ricardo, multiple people sheets. He
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: maxed it out already, So when is uh that's gotta
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: be coming up pretty soon for the first round.
• 20:23
  Speaker 4: Hey, it's like ninety six or ninety seven ranges getting filled.
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: Nice.
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's exciting stuff right there. I don't have to
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: hoke it. I think is probably the highest upside play
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: on the slate, Like the dude just volume.
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: I mean you can see it right there at the stone.
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: Nine point two five significant strikes, three point six to
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: nine takedowns. Derek Lewis quitting his last fight, Derek Luis
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: is getting old. No Cardio Hoki can wrestle and pour
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: it on. Nothing bad to say about hok It. Captain play,
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: flex play will be chalky chalk I want to eat
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: for with all those reasons though, that's I'm gonna play
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: some Derek Lewis too, because a if Hoki goes and
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: tries to swing like you did against Curtis Blades, Derek
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: Lewis can put his lights out. If Derek Lewis does that,
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: chalk Hokit goes down seventy percent of the field or whatever.
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: Derek Lewis low ownership, he'll score well and I'm gonna
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: play some Derek Lewis at captain too, the ultimate leverage
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: against Hokit and if he wins, I expect it to
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: be early in score. So I'll say the same thing
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: about Justin Gaechee later. But I think Derek Lewis and
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: Justin Gaechee are two of the best captain plays at ownership.
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: When you are getting I mean you're getting different, you're
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: getting risky, But when you're planning against twenty three thousand
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: people on a very chalky card with only so many combinations,
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: they have as much upside as anyone they could. But
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: Derek Lewis could be the highest score on the slate
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: when it's all said and done, and that wouldn't be shocking. Again,
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: he obviously needs to win, but a lot of that
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: win equity is in round one. He's plus three to
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: fifty right now as a money linon plus five hundred
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: and round one. That shows a lot of the equity
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: is early. So at six k I'm definitely gonna have
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: some at captain Hoke it's phenomenal play.
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: I think he dominates, But yeah, it's when Lewis wins.
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: How much do you win? You would win quite a
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: bit right there. We'll keep it rolling again.
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: Appreciate everyone hanging out so live watching on playback. Always
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: appreciate the support and all we ask is the like
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: button and the subscribe button.
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: It helps us out a ton.
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: Next fight on the card, Sugar Sean O'Malley taking on
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: Aiman Za Hobby minus four twenty five is Sean plus
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: three twenty five is Za Hobby plus one forty for
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: this fight to finish, the only fight on the card
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: expected to go the distance O'Malley plus one fifty five.
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: Inside the distance the Hobby plus eight point fifty Sean
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: O'Malley in round one plus three seventy five. So I
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: do think this fight gets overlooked a decent amount. As
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: far as O'Malley hope, it will be more popular for
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: two hundred less. Ilio will be more popular for four
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: hundred more. For this is hobby side. I do think
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: the hobby is more popular than Derek Lewis probably and
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: maybe Getchee's a little more popular. But I do think
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: it is pretty close. I'll let you take it away
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: though your breakdown in this fight. It is the lowest
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: star you have at a two star.
• 23:07
  Speaker 4: Yes, my O'Malley's gonna be my least favorite favorite to
• 23:11
  Speaker 4: target just because the Hobby's a tricky fighter to fight.
• 23:15
  Speaker 4: I think he's gonna be hard to hit. This is
• 23:17
  Speaker 4: gonna be a fight that's gonna be outside. I don't
• 23:20
  Speaker 4: think either one of them is gonna be high volume.
• 23:22
  Speaker 4: I look at this as a technical striking match for
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: fifteen minutes, where we'd really be lucky to get a
• 23:28
  Speaker 4: take down from either guy. We would probably get almost
• 23:31
  Speaker 4: all of our points from the knockout if that comes,
• 23:35
  Speaker 4: but I expect the winner to score like in the
• 23:38
  Speaker 4: sixties in a striking match of this one. So I
• 23:41
  Speaker 4: really don't want that with O'Malley. I'm okay with that
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: with the Hobby. Therefore, I'm not gonna make one hundred
• 23:47
  Speaker 4: and fifty lineups on this card. If I was, O'Malley
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: would be my least favorite play, but I'd still get
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: to probably everybody with my definite twenty or less. This week,
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: I'm thinking ten or less. I'm just gonna x out O'Malley.
• 24:00
  Speaker 4: So Hobby I think has a way better chance of
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: winning this fight than Vegas does currently, So that value
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: might put me onto the hobby just for the win equity,
• 24:13
  Speaker 4: but I also like it more as a flex play
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: because I don't know. I guess if he's gonna win,
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: I'm fine with that in the Captain, but I don't
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: expect a big score from Zaaby really no matter what.
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: Like it's almost give me sixty and I'm fine. Is
• 24:27
  Speaker 4: that enough for the captain? Then If it is, then
• 24:29
  Speaker 4: I'm okay with it. But I guess I preferred in
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: the flex.
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: I preferred in the flex as well.
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: I don't know how much is the Hobby I'll have
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: a captain because you're almost hoping sixty five is enough
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: at captain because that's what he feels like he's getting
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: in a win, and it might not even.
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: So you're you're not.
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: You're parlaying a plus three to twenty five dog winning
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: and then enough people doing bad on the other card
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: of the card breaking your way for it to get there. Sean,
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: I have a little more interest in Sean just for
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: a pure game theory play, Like we're looking at his
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: round one odds plus three seventy, that's twenty one percent.
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, if I know Sean's getting a finish in
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: round one, I'm loading up at captain since I think
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: he'll probably be sub ten percent again hokit Ilya getting
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: all of that.
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: That's a solid one round one prop while he has volume.
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: And if I if I know right now Shawn O'Malley's
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: getting a first round finish, I'm thinking that there was
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: a knockdown in there and then probably some volume twenty
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: five significant rock strikes, a knockdown and round one finish
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: I would sign up for at his captain ownership right now. So,
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: just looking at props game theory wise, I will be
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: playing some Seawan O'Malley up top, gun to my head
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: in a vacuum. This is the worst fight on the card,
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: but everyone knows that it's the only fight not expected
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: to finish between two strikers. If it goes the distance,
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: it's not going to get.
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: There more than likely.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: So do I love the fight, No, But at ownership,
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: I think O'Malley's interesting in the captain spot and the
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: Hobby's interesting in the flex spot due to pricing. All right,
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: two fights left, the interim heavyweight champion is on the
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: line with Alex Prayer minus one twenty favorite. Again, it
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: depends on what books you look at Always Price Shop
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: SiO Gon plus one hundred minus two twenty for this
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: fight to finish, Prayer plus one twenty. Inside of this
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: stance Gone plus two fifteen, Prayer around one plus five hundred,
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: Gone round one plus seven hundred. This line has bounced
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: around a little bit again depending on which book you
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: look at. Gon actually opened a minus two hundred favorite
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: that corrected pretty quickly, and it's spent about a coin
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: flop most of the time. This fight did open minus
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: two fifty to finish now minus two twenty. I guess
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: my hot take on this card is I think this
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: will be I think this is the most over owned fight.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: I should mention there's two five round fights, this one
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: and Ilia Gaegee. I think the name value alone and
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: just them being priced right next to each other, like
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: you only can play so many fighters that you're just
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: naturally gonna land on one of these two and so
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: many lineups. I honestly think this could be, like you know,
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: Maley's a hobby. Neither of them are gonna wrestle. Both
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: of them could be scared of the power a bit.
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: Gone's very light on his feet, can bounce around kind
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: of like we saw in the tom aspinall zero gone
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: round one before it finished. I think this fight will
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: be very highly owned. I can see multiple paths that
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: it goes the distance, or it goes to the third
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: or fourth round and someone gets a knockout. Over two
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: and a half minus one fifty five is favored. You're
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: parlay in getting the winner right in a coin flip fight,
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: and it's scoring enough. You just saw plus five hundred
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: for Pereira in round one, plus seven hundred for Gone.
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: Sean O'Malley was plus three seventy five in round one.
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: Obviously those prices are different. Derek Lewis was plus five
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: hundred in round one, so they're saying Gon Pereira and
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: Derek Lewis have the same likelihood of getting a round
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: one finish on this card. If you plug in Alex
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: Prera Captain and you zero out your money and you
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: go Pereier down Derek Lewis, that's a way to get
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: unique or a lot less dupes. I will be looking
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: to do that. I do not like Gon and Prayer
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: up top. That will be one of my big stands. Naturally,
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: they'll fit in the flex a little bit, but I
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: do want to be underweight this fight, I think we
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: get a striking match at distance that goes later into
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: the fight and that does not score very well. I
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: don't have a strong lean on the side. I'll pick
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: zero gone because I think he'll outpoint them. But it's
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: very scary, I mean, picking against Alex Prayer in a
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: striking match. It is not something that has been profitable
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: over the years. But yeah, very interesting fight. I'm excited
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: for real life. I will be hoping it busts for DFS.
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: What's up, Nate, what's your take, Big Marley?
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: Yeah, well said, I agree with all that.
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: I think it is going to be a close, technical
• 28:35
  Speaker 4: striking match, and I do have it going the distance,
• 28:39
  Speaker 4: so I do. I like the thought of kind of
• 28:42
  Speaker 4: xing them out both at captain and just hoping that
• 28:46
  Speaker 4: neither one of them scores one hundred, and I think
• 28:47
  Speaker 4: that's likely that we don't get one hundred in this one.
• 28:50
  Speaker 4: And the longer it goes, I feel like the more
• 28:52
  Speaker 4: technical gets, the slower they get, the slippery or they get.
• 28:57
  Speaker 4: But I do like it in the flex, both sides
• 28:59
  Speaker 4: of it, and not only either side, but both sides.
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: I'm cool stack in this fight.
• 29:03
  Speaker 4: In the flex because we could get like an eighty
• 29:06
  Speaker 4: and a fifty and one hundred and thirty points. I mean,
• 29:09
  Speaker 4: I don't know how many of these fights have one
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: hundred and thirty combined in them. So I am fine
• 29:15
  Speaker 4: with it as a flex It's one, I mean a
• 29:17
  Speaker 4: flex stack. It's one of my favorite stacks on the card,
• 29:20
  Speaker 4: I would think. But yeah, I really don't see a
• 29:23
  Speaker 4: whole lot of upside in this fight because I don't
• 29:25
  Speaker 4: think we're going to get a first round knockout. They
• 29:27
  Speaker 4: don't really have super high salary, so that helps as well.
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: But yeah, I kind of just am fine with either
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: or both in the flex and just expecting around an
• 29:36
  Speaker 4: eighty point win.
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm glad you see it the same way. I
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: definitely don't want much at captain. That's one of my
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: bigger stands.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: I'm fine fading this fight too in the flex as well.
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: But yeah, naturally you will land on one of these
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: guys in a decent bit of your teams, all right,
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: the main events, these guys have been babbling back and
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: forth at each other. Who knows if there's bad blood,
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: who knows if it's just marketing. It's Ilio to Poria,
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: it's Justin Gaichee, Ilia minus five to fifty favorite Justin
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: Gaigie plus four hundred on the way back, minus one
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: thousand for this fight to finish to Pouria minus five
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: hundred inside the distance. The best on the slate Gai
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: Chi plus five seventy five Ilia in round one plus
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: one twenty five open plus one p fifty just a
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: great fight. I mean, there's no way I'm picking against Ilia.
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: I think it's a step down from Vulk, from Max Holloway,
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: from Charles olivera who Ili has slept all of them.
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: So there's no way I'm picking against Gai Chee. But
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: that being said, Justin Gaichie one of the most violent humans.
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: If he can beat up the legs early, if he
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: can land a big shot early, you never know how
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: the fight game can go. I think Ilia is one
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: of the most popular him and hokits and at Captain
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: at Flex. Same thing I said about Derek Lewis. You
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: get the ultimate leverage with Justin Gaichee. If I knew
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: Justin Gaichie won right now. I mean he's probably the
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: favorite to be the highest score on the slate, at
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: least top three.
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: His salary.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: I have a lot of interest at Justin Geichie at Captain,
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: more interests at Captain than I do flex for him
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: and Derrek Lewis because again I think their win.
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: Equity will score a lot.
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: The win equity is low, but when they do win,
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: they will score and more than likely be needed at captain.
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: How much do I love the stack? I'm gonna play
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: the stack a little bit. This would be my favorite
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: if I had to pick on the stack. And that's
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: just hoping Ilia comes out there and tries the box.
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: Gaechie has moments and maybe goes to the second or
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: third round high paced Ilia gets a knockout. Gaechee scores thirty.
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: Five and that be enough. Do I love it? No?
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: But I don't really love any of the ideas of
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: stacking any of these fights. But again, you don't have
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: to pick six fighters and they're seven fights, so I
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: will be allowing stacks on my teams. And I think
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: this is my favorite with the pricing. But yeah, I
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: think Ilia sleeps someone it's all said and done, and
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: if he continues to go on this run, like if
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: he goes and he beats Armin Serukia next, which is
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: the only fight to make he's gonna be in that
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: goat category and that goat talk for a little while
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: until someone beats him.
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm excited for this one.
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: Illy I got winning, but I think the better DFS
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: play is probably Geechee because you'll win a lot more
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: money if you do get it right.
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: So yeah, what do you see?
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 32:16
  Speaker 4: I like all that give me Tafia to win, probably
• 32:19
  Speaker 4: by knockout at some point. She's got nasty power, but
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: he's also the nastier grappler too if he goes to
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: the ground. But gay Chee one of the most exciting
• 32:29
  Speaker 4: fighters in MMA history. He's gonna bring a pace, He's
• 32:34
  Speaker 4: gonna he's gonna bring it at the White House too,
• 32:37
  Speaker 4: So yeah, Gaechee's price. I'm absolutely cool with the stack.
• 32:41
  Speaker 4: I'm cool with gaechie by himself. I'm cool with Gaichie
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: and Captain. I'm cool with Geichee in the flex. I'm
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: cool with anything on this fight. I'm just making it
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: a five star because I really do want to include
• 32:51
  Speaker 4: at least one of them, and probably every lineup that
• 32:54
  Speaker 4: I handbuild. If I end up making my line ups
• 32:57
  Speaker 4: completely with Sabersim, then I'm not gonna make had a rule,
• 33:00
  Speaker 4: but I'm kind of gonna be looking through, especially if
• 33:03
  Speaker 4: I'm limiting the ones I'm picking. I'm kind of gonna
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: be looking through making sure I see the name to
• 33:07
  Speaker 4: Pouria or gai Chie at least somewhere in there. Because
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: this is my favorite of the five star, like I
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: only have two five stars. I tried to make it
• 33:15
  Speaker 4: to like you can see my ranking on how I
• 33:17
  Speaker 4: like the fights. This is my favorite one to target,
• 33:21
  Speaker 4: but Hok it is my favorite fighter to target.
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: But yay is Hope It's card.
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think Hoki would be my favorite too.
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: He just has so many paths to get there. Again,
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: do remember, not only is Ilia Gayche five rounds with
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: ciro Ghan Alex Pereira also is six of the seven
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: fights expected to finish. Let's all rank our top three
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: favorites in terms of having the stack. I said Ilia
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: Gachie one because of the pricing. I'm gonna say Diego
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: Lopez Steve Garcia two. For me, I could see that
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: being an all out war if you tell me people
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: got knockdowns on like both fighters got a knockdown. I
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: actually think that would be the fight I would Actually
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: I'd pick Ilia Gachee if both fighters got a knockdown,
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: but Diego Lopez Garcia would be the other one I
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: would pick, So I'll pick that is my second favorite.
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: I'll let you.
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: Talk about I guess I would go Gone Pereira because
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: it's five rounds.
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean it's definitely the two title fights.
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: And then I'd be okay with Lopez Garcia.
• 34:35
  Speaker 4: Yeah really, I mean yeah, that or Hoofy Chandler just
• 34:38
  Speaker 4: because like late Hoofy first round knockout, but Chandler wrestles
• 34:42
  Speaker 4: before that.
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that makes sense. It's really difficult.
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: Again, I would definitely get in over at Chip Nation
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: into our discord. I'm sure Sheets will drop some information
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: like he always does, one of the sharpest guys out there.
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: We'll have ownership, we'll have projections, everything up, slate plan rankings,
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: fight rankings will be up.
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: It'll all be up Friday.
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: But do remember that this is a Sunday card, so yeah,
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: maybe some changes will be made Saturday.
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: Sunday morning.
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: Will let everyone know in the discord everything will be
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: updated like always. It's gonna be interesting for sure, even
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: if it does rain though, like I said, they are,
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: like you said earlier, they got it covered. They're not
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: going to delay this thing or have a chance for
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: it to be postponed.
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: It'll go.
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: It'll be very, very sick I think. I mean, we've
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: never seen anything like this thoughts. I mean, put away
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: your thoughts on all political things right now, this or that.
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: It's at the White House, it's outside. It's going to
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: be seven awesome fights, anything like we've never seen. It's
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: unlike anything we've ever seen. So I'm pumped for it.
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: There's one hundred k up top. There's money to be made,
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: and I hope one of us, Big Marley, or someone
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: watching with the Ship in Nation logo, is at the
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: top when it is all set and done. Great to
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: see Daniel, love your picture. Good luck this week, Big Marley.
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: What are your final thoughts before we on.
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: Out of here?
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah, looking forward to it.
• 36:03
  Speaker 4: I'll be on the beach watching this one, so it'll
• 36:05
  Speaker 4: make it even better for me.
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: But hopefully it's fun to watch.
• 36:09
  Speaker 4: Hopefully it is actually a fun DFS card. I'm not
• 36:12
  Speaker 4: really looking forward to it from a DFS perspective, but
• 36:17
  Speaker 4: my mind could be changed once this fight gets started,
• 36:19
  Speaker 4: especially if I have a lot of the winner in
• 36:21
  Speaker 4: that Lopez Garcia fight, but looking forward to a good one.
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: Go hoke It, Go America. Good luck to you title,
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: Good luck to everybody listening. Let's ship it.
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: Let's ship it is rights, good luck everybody. Awesome.
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: Stuff is always Big Marley. You enjoy your vacation. Let's
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: get some shipping nation logos to the top. We will
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: see in the discord for Big Marley. I'm titled Town
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: Beace Safe, good luck, peace.
• 37:01
  Speaker 5: Bast and the steps and made steps and hands