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Hog Talk: H and P For Me · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the Hog Market Talk Podcast with Professional Egg Marketing.
• 0:05
  SPEAKER_01: Come here to get fresh updates on what's happening week to week within the Lean Hog complex.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_01: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_01: And remember to visit swineweb.com, an excellent resource for information in the pork industry, where you can also find this podcast.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_01: This is your host, Mike Miner.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_01: Let's crow.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: Today is June 26th.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: I've got Rob with us here today.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_01: How's it going, Rob?
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: It is going great.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_01: It is always a pleasure to have you on the show.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_01: We've got a fantastic one today.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_01: You're going to talk a little bit about the HP report that came out today, the Hogs and Pigs report.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_01: And then we're going to have you talk about the 4th of July weekend, how that impacts the hog industry, and then we're going to wrap up with some cold storage data.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_01: So are you ready, Rob?
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_00: I am ready to go, sir.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: Alright, let's talk about this HP report today.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_01: What did it show us?
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: So yeah, uh, they came out with a hog and pig report for June 1st here, but uh basically all in all, it was about half a percent below the actual numbers.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_00: The estimates were about half a percent below the actual numbers.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: All weight groups came in a bit higher than the estimates.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_00: The under 50-pound weight group came in about 1.2% above last year.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: Um, these would be pigs that kind of go to the market in that December time frame.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_00: Um, so that's a little bit tricky to gauge, but if you take a look at uh isoling pig prices, um, and you kind of follow the trends that those have been doing, um, that time period that they typically go down around mid-April, they actually turned and they went higher.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: So a little counter-seasonal, a little odd.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: Um, other years would show maybe a little bit sideways to lower movement, but uh this year we saw them actually turn and go higher.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: So it's about$17, I want to say, above this time of last year, and uh that's gonna be a little bit tough to uh for the trade to kind of take a look at.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: Um yeah, I mean, if the there's room, I suppose, you know, you can have uh higher ice wean pig prices, and um, I think it takes room in order to do that.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: So demand was good, so there obviously was room, and seeing a number above that of last year is just a little bit hard.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_01: So the report, you think overall market reaction tomorrow, what would you expect?
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: I think kind of expect like what we normally do where um the report is traded, right?
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: And uh then afterwards we kind of think back and maybe take some look at other things, and maybe we'd disbelieve whatever.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: But uh at first it's gonna trade the report, I would assume.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_01: What's 4th of July look like next week?
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_01: It's gonna be a shorter week.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: Comes at the end of the week on a Friday this year.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_01: How do you expect that to impact the the world of hogs?
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's kind of interesting that we're already to the 4th of July.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: I I know I am getting incredibly old here, but uh as I get older, that time just keeps moving faster, and poof, it's here already.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_01: The days crawl by, but the years fly by.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_00: That is for sure.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_00: Um, so I I did do a quick Google on this.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_00: I had to do it because I didn't really know, but uh somewhere around 70% of Americans like the grill on the 4th of July.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: So that's it.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_01: What is going on, America?
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: Well, maybe it's too hot in some parts.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: So but with that, obviously, if we're gonna do all that backyard grilling, we see uh a lot of demand, you know, for for those types of meats.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: And uh it doesn't take anybody really, I mean, even somebody who doesn't go to the grocery store knows that uh beef prices are incredibly high.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: And uh pork is definitely a uh very price competitive meat for the consumer today.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: So um so far we've seen like record beef prices in the 50s, and that's all because of hamburgers and those kind of things.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_00: So maybe this year will be a great year for a little bit of more pork demand.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_01: Well, we're all looking forward to that.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_01: Hopefully, uh hopefully, what do you think about kill this week again?
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_00: Uh kill this week is expected to be a little bit higher than what it was last week, but it it should be.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's still in that that tighter area, and yeah, obviously as we move into next week's smaller slaughter, they're gonna they're hoping to make a few on Saturday this week.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_01: It'll be a little different this year because like last year was on a Wednesday, right?
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_01: Just smack dab in the middle of the week.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: Right, this makes a long weekend.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_01: That it does.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_01: All right, cold storage.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna wrap up with that before any final thoughts from you, Rob.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_01: What did you think out of that guy?
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: So cold storage, I guess the most shocking thing to me, well not really shocking, but I mean you've seen everything lower from last month and last year.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_00: I haven't seen a report where everything was lower on the red meat side of stuff.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: So we saw um lower pork and lower beef.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: Uh chicken kind of stayed about the same, and uh turkey was a little bit higher, but uh definitely indicating some good demand is what I would say from those products.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: Um, obviously, any less product moving to the coolers is always a good sign of consumers eating it, right?
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: So uh hams gained a little bit from the prior month, but uh during that period of time, I want to say they were about$24 cheaper than they are today.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: So that that's probably why a few more hams move there.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_00: And today we're seeing a lot of uh good domestic demand as well as uh some good demand from Mexico there.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_00: So Mexico's still buying, even at these higher elevated prices today, so that that's also a good thing.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: And uh in the deli meat side of the world, it seems that uh hams are a good choice for uh deli meats, even that of better than turkey, for example.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: So is price competitive there yet?
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: Seeing some good hams move, but uh a lot of the talk really has been on you know what are they gonna put for in the meats for like trim and those types of things.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: So um seeing a little bit of stronger demand and uh the the picnics, for example, um and uh those continue to climb a little bit.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: I think they put on about 20 bucks since last April.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: So um seeing that kind of increase a little bit uh and uh 97%, I believe, was the picnics over that of last year.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_00: So good to see the products moving.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_01: Well, Rob, the last seven days I would call it of trade out of this hog market's been pretty sideways here after you saw two straight months of basically an upday every day.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_01: Uh any comments on what the futures have been doing here through this stretch, kind of since the last hog podcast we did, and and uh any other fundamentals that you'd like to discuss today to wrap up?
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_00: It seems like they've kind of taken uh what I would call a sideways trade.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: Um, of course, with that, you had a lot of stuff coming out, you know, this week that uh the traders waiting for to kind of get a feeling on how the market was gonna be.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_00: Um so that always holds back things.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_00: Plus, along with that, you know, like we're talking about the 4th of July coming up.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_00: So we're getting closer to that end of month, end of quarter, all that kind of stuff.
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_00: And uh I think there's a lot of uncertainty really as far as you know, what is that consumer gonna do over the fourth?
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_00: What are they gonna eat?
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_00: You know, how how is that demand gonna come out, and uh kind of waiting for that next big news, right?
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_00: And coming up also, you know, on the 9th, I want to say of July, where we're gonna be talking about, you know, the wonderful trade trade negotiations as well again.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_00: So a lot of that just kind of leads a little bit of a sideways trade, I'd say.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's gonna be in some interesting times there.
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_01: July 8th and 9th, we got Canada, Mexico trade uh happening through that time frame.
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_01: Who else is in that for uh for a deadline, Rob?
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_00: Boy, I'm not exactly sure who else.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_00: I think just about everybody else is on kind of a deadline, aren't they?
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_01: They should be at this point.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_01: I know some are coming in August as well.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_01: Um, yeah, that's gonna be some key time frames to be looking at going forward, at least.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_01: So keep those in mind.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_01: Uh volatility is probably gonna continue to ramp up here uh as those trade deals get talked about as well.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_01: So thank you for your time today, Rob.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_01: I really appreciate it, as I know all our listeners do as well.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_01: Rob is our real guru when it comes to research within the uh pork and and beef trade, anyways.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_01: So I I enjoyed our chat today.
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_01: And if you need anything or need any projects, please throw them Rob's way and not mine, at least.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_01: So you all have a fantastic weekend, and we'll catch you next time, Rob.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_01: And thank you to all our listeners.
• 9:31
  SPEAKER_01: Please reach out to us at professionalegmarketing.com.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_01: Check out our other podcast as well, Professional Egg Marketing, that's released every Friday.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_01: Trading commodity futures and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_01: See you next time.