Tension Beneath the Surface
Despite persistent geopolitical tensions, higher energy prices, and a packed week of central bank decisions (Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ), financial markets have remained remarkably resilient. But beneath that surface calm, the data are starting to tell a more complicated story. This week’s charts highlight the growing tension:
Front-end yields repricing “higher for longer”
Real-time US recession risks — contained
A divergence in consumer confidence (US vs Europe)
Tighter credit conditions in the euro area
An intensifying semiconductor price boom
And AI beginning to reshape labour markets
The…
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