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Week 2 Preview · The Extra Point

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What's up y'all? You're listening to the extra
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point college football podcast. I'm your host Jacob Carnage,
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joined as always by my Co host Daniel Hammock.
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Daniel, the slow clap for the first weekend of college
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football because we've made it. We have a full slate of games
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Thursday to Monday. We're recording this on Tuesday.
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Like full slate of games, excellent matchups, excellent
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football, big upsets, games on campuses, everything you love
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about college football. I feel like we got it all this
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weekend in on a very hefty, hefty slate.
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It makes it worth the wait to get a weekend like that for the
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opening weekend of college football.
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Absolutely. This was, I mean, chef's kiss,
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just an awesome weekend. You had big upsets, you had big
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time matchups, you had good games.
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There were very few blowouts except for Monday night really.
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So I feel like all the ones that we really wanted there to be a
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good game. It was a game to the fourth
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quarter. So definitely something we
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needed to, you know, we need to experience.
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So awesome pageantry. This is one of the best weekends
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of the year, man. Opening weekend College
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football. Labor Day weekend.
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One of my favorite for sure. Let's let's dive in man.
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We've got a regular season shows rolling now.
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Now I can talk about real football as we head into our
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first quarter of our show. Daniel, what's one thing you
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learned this weekend? One thing I learned is that
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Florida State can be anyone if they play their A+ game.
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So that kind of, you know, will eventually lead into one of my
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questions, but a lot of people want to square this Alabama,
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Florida State game, you know, only one sidedly about, hey,
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this is an Alabama issue, which hey, that's absolutely fair.
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I just also want to make sure we give love to Florida State.
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I think when they play their A+ game, specifically this year's
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team, I think that they can compete with anyone in the
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country. Now, I do think that there's
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several teams that if they play and they play their A+ game
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against, those teams will need to not play their A+ game.
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So there is a little caveat there.
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I did kind of have a little back door, a little magician's trick.
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But for State is one of those teams that because of the
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scheme, we've seen this before with Malzahn early in the
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career, with him having like his first season at Florida State,
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might be his best season at Florida State.
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We've seen that at Auburn. We've seen that, You know, when
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he's gone around, you know, at UCF, you know, when he was
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working his way up through Arkansas State, these other
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places, he's a guy who has teams around.
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Figure him out, he becomes less effective.
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He certainly can raise the floor.
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But this year I do think that they are in for some surprises
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for some teams. They put some stuff on tape that
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I think is going to really annoy some people and they've got the
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perfect QB to execute what Gus Melzon wants to do, So big props
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to Florida State. I definitely think that they are
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a contender this year and yes, it is self-serving because I did
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put them in the ACC Championship myself in our season preview.
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I still feel like they're in that realm.
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I also picked against them in our first week, so we'll slap on
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the hand for that, but I'll forgive myself since I was right
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about them. Maybe for the long term this
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year. Yeah, you, you hit the nail on
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the head of this. That game you can take two sides
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and that's why which I'll get to my point in a minute.
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But is Alabama fine and Florida State should be considered a
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national title contender or you know, it is the dynasty dead?
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Some people are saying, which I've got another point on here
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in a second, Daniel, that the one thing I learned and this
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will be a kind of a bow on the first week of college football.
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There will never be another league Corso and Saturday.
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You know, this is not necessarily game related, but we
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get the end of an era at ESPN. Yeah, slow clap college game
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day. Something that you, I and a
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bunch of other college football fans have grown up on.
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I was born in 96, so for for my whole life, I've watched Corso
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put on the headgear and it is a it is the culmination of a
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college football. Saturday morning is like, you
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have all these morning shows and you have college game day
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building to this one moment where some old dude, you know,
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holding a pencil and screaming at kids and maybe saying stuff
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he shouldn't on TV in the, you know, in Houston, puts on the
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head of a mascot while wearing a suit or sometimes, you know,
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full gear that he wears. Yeah.
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In End of an era, college game day changed and, you know,
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created this new space of a game day show.
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And Lee Corso helped to build that.
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And I thought that Josh Peyton made a really good point of just
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some good life stuff you can learn from Corso, which is after
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having played college football and then coached college
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football for three or four decades, you know, what if you
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had told the Corso, hey, the most impact you're going to have
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on the sport is still yet to come, even though you're already
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old, say old, above 40, right above 50, right?
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That's incredible in that you can still have a large impact
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even later on in life. And so the one thing I learned
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Daniel is there's never going to be another Lee Corso.
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Hats off. He I thought they did a really
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good job on college game day giving him a proper send off,
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doing it at midfield with Brutus.
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And if you saw the video, they actually gifted him the original
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Brutus head that he put on in 1996.
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They gifted that to him. So I hope that finds a proper.
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Spot so awesome. In his house, yeah.
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Shout out to Lee Corso. There will never be another one
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and I'm glad the ESPN is not going to try to replicate anyone
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putting on a mascot head. I'm I'm glad that as Lee leaves
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and retires, I'm glad that retires with him because he's a
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legend. That's deserved.
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Thank you, Lee Corso. Yeah, man, just to echo what
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you're saying, I agree completely.
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One of the things about college football is just the love of the
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game and just loving ball, and I think Corso embodies that.
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There's too many stiff people in suits who talked like it was a
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nine to five job. And he really brought the fun
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back into previews and stuff. And a lot of people will just
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think about him, you know, in these later years of just him
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being this old, you know, you know, silly old man kind of a
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thing, but you know, your silly grandpa.
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But that's like man, the all of the the whole decade of the 90s.
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And you know, those, especially those early 2000s man, I mean,
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he was electric. And I mean, you know, Kirk
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definitely helped him through these last few years as far as
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making the point he was trying to make and making sure you
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remember where he was with, you know what, what game they were
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talking about and all that kind of stuff, as you would with any
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elderly, you know, parent or grandparent.
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But I just admire him, admire how they did it.
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I mean, just the whole thing is supposed to be fun.
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There's pageantry around it. And I feel like they hit the
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nail on the head for all these many years.
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So awesome. Awesome, awesome.
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And we know like, the best parts about college football are the
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pageantry, the traditions, the rivalries.
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And like Lee Corso and College Game Day embodied this, the
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pageantry and tradition of college football.
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And he accidentally started a tradition by, again, trying to
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be fun. And what if with my pick, I put
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on the mascot's head? It doesn't sound crazy now, but
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if no one had ever done it, I just putting on the mascot's
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head. This is crazy but it's fun.
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So shout out to Lee. End of an era.
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Saturday's will not be the same without Lee Corso, but glad he
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got a proper send off from college.
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Game day Daniel. As we head into the second
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quarter of our show, 2 questions we have moving forward.
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Daniel what's what's the first question you've got after
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watching college football in Week 1?
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Yeah, after throwing all those flowers that we just did, here's
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some darts. OK.
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Is this the new normal for Alabama?
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Is is this what we should expect?
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I'm not saying just losing a game.
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I'm saying them looking human like is, is there now kryptonite
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in the room? You know, is there something
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that they can't, you know, overcome their tenant, their
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five and five in their last 10 games, 4 unranked losses in the
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last 14 games. It took Sabin, whatever the stat
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is, 16 years to have 4. 135 games.
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Yeah. So like, not only are they
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human, are they they they're beatable in the sense that, you
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know, anyone can kind of have their day.
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Great article by Chris Marler this week.
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We at louisianasports.net just about, you know, of course, he's
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he's being a little hyperbolic with the dynasty being dead, but
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he provides some great evidence And Marler is a lifelong Alabama
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fan. So he's not being this isn't
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like a slanderous article. It's more like a introspective
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piece. I definitely recommend that.
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But him talking specifically about the high of beating
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Georgia last year and basically the fan base thinking, did we
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just get another Nick Saban? Which sounds just so crazy to
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think in hindsight. Because the very next week they
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lost for the first time in 40 years to to Vanderbilt, which,
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you know, they could still beat Georgia this year.
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They could still do these other things.
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They could, you know, win big games.
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This is only one game. We have a lot of reactions.
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But I it does beg the question, like, there was a lot last year
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that kind of caused, you know, consternation and to start the
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year like this. I mean, Saban would not have let
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that fly. I know it's always going to be
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unfair comparing any, you know, Saban to anybody because that's
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just unfair that, you know, greatest of all time.
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But someone's got to do it. Someone's got to follow him.
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And the Boer so far has been tasked with being that guy.
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And I kind of feel like this may be the new normal.
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He's an outsider of the SEC. He's here.
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People are already searching his buyout at this point.
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So yeah, I'm wondering if this is what we're going to see going
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forward. Yeah, I I'll go to my I was
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going to save my first second question, but my first question,
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Daniel, is what week 1 overreaction will turn out to be
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true? Week 1 is the perfect week to
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have overreactions because you get a one game sample size and
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you know, you make an opinion based off of what you thought
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both teams were right. So Florida State, Alabama is a
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perfect example of this in a vacuum of like, well, we thought
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Florida State coming off a 2 and 10.
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Well, let me rephrase that. I thought Florida State coming
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off a 2 and 10 season was going to be a six and six type team.
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Alabama goes in the road, not only loses as a 14 point
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favorite, but like gets beat by 14, whatever the final score
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was. So it's well as the dynasty
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dead. Some other popular overreactions
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from this week. Clemson not a national title
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contender, Florida State back. Arch Manning dead, overrated.
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Ohio State best team in the country.
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LSU should be SEC and national title favorite.
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Matt Patricia Broyles award winner.
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Miami front runner of the ACC Tulane to the College Football
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Playoff. Belichick and UNC will not make
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a bowl game. Utah or Iowa State should be Big
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12 favorites in in there. Daniel are probably several
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overreactions to Week 1, but which of these is going to be
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true? Which of these are we going to
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look back on and say, you know, actually that turned out not to
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be an overreaction and that was a good read out of week 1 or or
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a good guest out of week 1. You know, you talk about Bama.
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Bama is definitely one of those of I'm sitting here scratching
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my head. I I thought Bill Connolly made a
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good point. We talked about this in the
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offseason. Daniel of last year, Georgia and
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Texas had higher floors, then Alabama and Alabama had a higher
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ceiling. And that's one thing that Saban
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did so well was the floor was always so high at Alabama that I
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mean, honestly, in a year that we would say is a rebuilding
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year for Alabama, they go and win the SEC and come up short in
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the national championship game against Georgia in 2021, same
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thing, 2023, not their best team.
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They go and beat Georgia undefeated in the SEC
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championship, go to the playoff, come up short in Michigan.
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It seems like Bama has lost the floor that Saban brought, and I
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think they still have the ceiling of like, if they go and
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beat Georgia in here in three weeks, that's not going to
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surprise me. I think the more surprising
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thing is that the floor is now gone from Alabama.
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And maybe, maybe that's my reaction for my Bama take.
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Watching it for the last year in a game is the floor is much
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lower without Nick Saban, and maybe that was his greatest
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strength. Yeah, I agree.
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And that's a that's something to consider with the article I
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mentioned that Marla wrote was a lot about doing the little
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things well and beating unranked teams and 124 and four all time
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against unranked teams. Like you just do what you're
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supposed to do all the time and then be ready for the big
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moments. And if you you know you're 5050
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on those top five matchups, then you know you're going to be in a
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good position more often than not.
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Just make sure you handle your business elsewhere.
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So that's good point. My second question, I did go to
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the big game of the weekend, the big noon kick off.
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Dude, is Ohio State better defensively than they were last
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year? And they had a great defense
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last year. And that was my big knock on
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them coming into this year. I was like, you know what?
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They they lost their defensive coordinator, Tim Knowles in a
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lateral move to Penn State downgrade.
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But is that a, you know, what are they doing?
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You know, to have lost him and all the NFL talent and even just
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the senior laden leadership, like some guys that have just
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been around for a while, you lose all of that.
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You wonder can they handle it? And then they go toe to toe with
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Sarkisian Arch Manning, who I don't think is dead, by the way.
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I do think that he's going to be just fine.
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Obviously, my career depends on it because I picked him, picked
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him to win the national championship.
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But that being said, I, I I think they're going to get
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things figured out and I think people are going to look back at
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this week and think, wow, we really did see two of the very
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best teams play. And defensively, I have no
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questions about Texas. I think they played great
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defensively and obviously there are several stops inside the red
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zone for Ohio State and really bowing up on short yardage.
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So I feel really strongly about the defensive front.
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Matt Patricia, you know, you mentioned the overreaction of
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Broyles award, but I mean him showing versatility, being able
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to come in to college after being gone for so long and to be
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able to coach these types of players and get them ready to
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play, you know, such a elite team to start with, an elite
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scheme. And really they never really
15:03
looked out of position. They were, you know, they had a
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guy everywhere they're supposed to.
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So they look schematically sound.
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They've obviously always got players and big moments.
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Dude, 4th down goal line, they showed up, only gave up seven
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points and that was, I don't want to call it garbage time.
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They were up 14 to nothing and Arch was just throwing for the
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end zone at that point. It kind of loosened him up a
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little bit. But yeah, they, they're, if they
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play this kind of defense in the Big 10, I don't there's they're
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going to have several games where they don't allow a
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touchdown. Well, now that you've won Week
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1, your defense is a high enough floor right to give your offense
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time to get up to speed with your new quarterback to get up
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to speed. Yeah, I, I, I'm curious there.
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And again, This is why I'm like I I look at week 1 and I go,
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huh, Let's see how this plays out because, you know, Texas out
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gained Ohio State over 130 yards.
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They had five more first downs in Ohio State did they were
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better on 3rd down. They both had 1/4 down
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conversion highest they beat him in time possession.
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I mean, like EPA wise, they were both bad in the game and again,
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like defensive battle. This plays into my second
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question actually, which is Daniel, has there been a
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defensive resurgence in college football or are we in the middle
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of a defensive resurgence in college football?
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I look at the biggest games the weekend.
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Ohio State, Texas 21 total points, LSU, Clemson 27 total
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points. You can argue that should have
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been probably touched down better for LSU, Florida State,
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Bama 48 points, which was above the over under before.
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The state's defense played a lot better than anticipated.
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Like the the the winners played really, really good defense this
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weekend. You look at the last three teams
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that have won national championships, all LED with
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their defense in Georgia, Michigan and Ohio State.
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Like that was the best unit on those teams.
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I just think like we get through the 2019 and 2020 Alabama teams
17:00
and we're at this like this offense is the height of the
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sport. It's the best it's ever been.
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You know, you need a big quarterback and amazing wide
17:08
receivers. I remember Kirby Smart before
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the Clemson game in 22 or after the Clemson game in 2021 was
17:14
like, you know, people say you can't hold people to under 20
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points a game. And he's like, we just don't
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believe that. And they help people to under 10
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points a game that year. And you saw unbelievable
17:25
defenses through Michigan and Ohio State with national
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champion. So are we in the middle of a
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defensive resurgence in college football?
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What we're one weekend, But that's my question I have moving
17:36
forward. Yeah, I just one comment I'll
17:39
make on just week 1 as a whole. I'd mentioned this to one of my
17:44
friends who was just kind of like ready to have these
17:48
overreactions and obviously they're fun.
17:50
This is what college football is all about.
17:51
Is like we finally got some, you know, actual games.
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So we're, you know, just going to throw out everything we knew
17:59
from before the season. It's like, OK, hold on, hold on,
18:01
hold on. You know, cuz like last week I
18:04
mentioned that that was the only week we're going to have where
18:06
we don't have any game data. Really.
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You're going to be picking games solely based off of pre season
18:11
prediction. Now you add one game of data
18:15
plus all the pre season prediction and slowly start
18:18
waiting, you know, the in season product versus any of your
18:23
preconceived notions prior to the season.
18:25
So we're about to, you know, talk about half time or XPR, but
18:28
it's just one of those things I wanted to comment on.
18:30
Like week 1 is the most volatile because you still know the least
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and you still thought you knew the most.
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And so it's like that weird, you know, change of like you, you
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start questioning everything you once knew and you're not you
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don't have any solid ground to stand on where you could say,
18:50
oh, no, they've played multiple games now and we've seen a
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trend. It's one game could have
18:55
legitimately Alabama. It could have legitimately just
18:59
been a match up thing with Florida State and with this
19:01
scheme and they caught something that, you know, maybe we don't
19:05
even see the rest of the year with Alabama.
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That could be the case. It also could be that, you know,
19:09
maybe Alabama is less than what we thought, you know, all this
19:11
kind of stuff. But I do, you know, I want to
19:14
react appropriately, but we're going to see as these next
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couple weeks happen, OK, that we have a a little bit of a read.
19:22
But that's the beauty of college football, man.
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It's unpredictable. It always will be.
19:26
So I love that. I love it.
19:28
Daniel, I wanted to mention if you had blindly bet the under
19:32
last week in every game, 65% against gets the number there.
19:36
If you had blindly bet the under so maybe maybe a defensive
19:40
resurgence. Yes, we get here to halftime.
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We finally got our updated XPR first one of the season.
19:47
Follow us on social media at the extra point pod or Daniel and I
19:51
will post this to to Twitter here in just a second at Deep
19:56
South Daniel for Daniel at Jacob Karn to The Cave for me.
19:59
All of that linked here in the episode description.
20:02
Daniel are our extra point rankings If you're near around
20:05
here If you'd like a refresher. We aim for this short and sweet
20:08
to be like the BCS. Right, So what we've
20:11
incorporated both cold hard computers, cold hard data, as
20:14
well as some human element to rank these teams.
20:17
A lot of movement this week, which I appreciate and enjoy
20:21
because there should be a lot of movement after we get a, you
20:24
know, a week full of games. I'll caution you, there's some
20:29
stuff that I don't agree with. There's some stuff that Daniel
20:31
doesn't agree with. Not just our numbers, Computer
20:34
rankings in here as well, top five, Ohio State, Georgia,
20:40
Oregon, LSU and Penn State. And you know what?
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What team stick out on here? What surprises?
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You? Know who's overrated?
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Who's underrated? What is the APF wrong?
20:51
What are your thoughts on our Week 2 XPR?
20:53
Yeah, a couple of things. I mean, First off, Alabama, you
20:59
know, they were not top five for us.
21:00
They're outside the top 10 now. I think that that's, you know,
21:06
about, right. I know that some of the other
21:09
preseason pull or the AP and coaches had them lower.
21:13
So that's kind of surprising. But I, I like that a team like
21:19
Notre Dame did not drop far for their loss to Miami, but rather
21:24
Miami moved up because I do think that was a very even game,
21:29
especially that Notre Dame kind of didn't catch a couple breaks
21:33
and then had to kind of fight and claw back in.
21:36
But I was very impressed with Miami.
21:37
So seeing them jump from 12 up to 8 for us, that's I think
21:41
that's that's good. And then it's kind of funny.
21:43
Michigan wins the game. They started out at 10 for us
21:47
and then drop down to 18. I know they're, their metrics
21:51
are probably off based on how they beat New Mexico.
21:55
So, you know, just some things I'm keeping an eye on.
21:58
A team wins a game, drops 8 spots in the polls.
22:00
So that shows you that there's other things waited in here
22:03
other than just perception and all this kind of stuff.
22:05
It is reliant upon some of the different metrics that we use.
22:09
So yeah, this thing will be kind of fluid, a few weeks I think
22:13
where it really moves. And then we'll kind of have
22:15
that, that strong sense of, you know, what the data analytics
22:19
part shows. And we'll probably have kind of
22:21
even onesie twosie swaps from here on out.
22:24
Yeah, man, I I I love our system.
22:26
I'll tell you a team that we are more right on the AP is Utah.
22:31
I think that Utah this is just my personal thoughts right now.
22:35
I pick Utah to be my big my Big 12 favorite after watching them
22:39
play that new quarterbacks unbelievable.
22:41
The defense looked vintage Utah just dominated UCLA in the row,
22:46
which I don't think they're going to be very good.
22:47
But the way they played was very Kyle Whittingham saying, you
22:51
know, everybody talking about these other teams in the Big 12
22:54
that we're still Utah, we're still going to be the standard
22:57
and maybe he goes out on top of retirees this year.
23:00
Yeah, Alabama is still too high, I think even for for our
23:03
numbers. I know that you and I personally
23:07
ranked Florida State ahead of Alabama as we should have.
23:10
But again, this is this is BCS like in that if you know, and
23:15
this is one week of data, this is where it's why we don't make
23:17
a playoff after one week or pick teams to be in the championship
23:20
after one week. As we get more data, this is
23:22
going to be stronger and stronger each week.
23:25
And look at Bama starts winning again.
23:27
They're probably going to move only up from here.
23:29
If they start losing more, they're only going to move down
23:31
from here. And same in Florida State or any
23:33
of these other teams. I do find it interesting,
23:36
Oklahoma above Michigan. That was not the case last week.
23:39
Of course, we're going to talk about that game here in just a
23:41
few minutes. Auburn, I wanted to call out, we
23:45
have a 21 in our XPR. They're unranked in the AP and
23:48
they received less votes than last week despite going on the
23:52
road and stomping Baylor. I think that's a little bit
23:54
ridiculous. Couple of AP stats from the
23:59
Bear, Chris Falika. One, it's the first time since
24:03
the preseason poll of 2006 that we've got Florida, Florida State
24:09
and Miami in the top 15 of the AP poll, which is nuts.
24:13
We've got them all in the top 20 of our XPR and it's the first
24:17
time since November 2013 both Clemson and South Carolina are
24:22
in the top ten of the AP poll. We've got them both in the top
24:25
15, so a resurgence in Florida and South Carolina in both the
24:30
AP and the XPR, But keep an eye out for this on social media.
24:34
Again, the goal is for this to look like the BCS, which I think
24:37
is the best ranking system we've had.
24:39
It was cold, hard data that was public that you could look at
24:41
and watch. You can disagree with it, but it
24:43
wasn't made behind closed doors by decision makers.
24:46
People had to put their name on the the human side of it and the
24:49
computer spat out the raw data. So man, miss you BCS.
24:53
We're going to try to resurrect you with our XPR here, Daniel.
24:58
Third quarter of our show. What are three games we're not
25:02
picking that you're excited to watch this weekend?
25:04
Yeah, this one. Man, it hurts my heart.
25:06
Last week Kennesaw State loses to Wake Forest.
25:11
It was a, you know, one point loss and Kennesaw statements
25:14
missed a field goal and an extra point, so should have had the
25:18
game. They definitely surprised some
25:19
folks. It also could be that Wake was
25:21
terrible. Probably a mix of both.
25:24
Kennesaw State's a little better than they've been.
25:25
That being said, dude, Kurt Zignetti at Indiana talking a
25:30
big game about the SEC in their scheduling and he plays, you
25:35
know, Kennesaw State, which again, I'm not going to put
25:38
Kennesaw State in every week, but they're on TV the first two
25:40
weeks of the season. So, you know, bear with me,
25:42
everybody. We're going to watch them.
25:44
They're playing on Fox Sports 1 FS one at noon.
25:48
It's a 36 1/2 point line and I'm going to take the points is all
25:54
I'm saying. So Kennesaw State going to go in
25:57
and they're not going to win this game.
25:59
I wouldn't imagine, but they're definitely going to going to
26:02
play. Well, it looks like a new day
26:04
with new leadership and everything at Kennesaw State.
26:07
But I'm I'm going to watch that one.
26:09
With second one, I'm going to say we were talking about this
26:12
one because you know me and you were pretty set on at least two
26:16
games to pick. And then the other ones, there's
26:19
a big grouping of others that we're deciding between.
26:21
This one we left off because it's just not quite as good as
26:27
the other ones. But Ole Miss is going to
26:30
Kentucky. And last year it wasn't really
26:33
on our rank radar because, I mean, Kentucky stunk and Ole
26:38
Miss was really good. We're like, dude, Ole Miss going
26:40
to kill them. And then sure enough, Kentucky
26:42
handled them in Oxford, so now they play the return trip in at
26:47
Kentucky. Ole Miss is a 9 1/2 point
26:49
favorite. I'm just watching for weird
26:51
stuff. I would still lean Ole Miss to
26:53
cover. I still think that Kentucky's
26:56
lousy. That's what they showed us in
26:58
the first week. We will see, but who knows man,
27:02
SEC football can get weird, you know, Especially when you're
27:04
playing a team that by all accounts, looks like they don't
27:08
even have a pulse. Is this the Zach Calzada
27:10
redemption story? He's, you know, the most recent,
27:14
you know, 7th year quarterback to be playing.
27:16
So we'll see. The last one that I'm watching.
27:20
I think this one's probably the most interesting because I feel
27:23
like we're going to get a good read on both teams.
27:26
South Florida at Florida at the Swamp, only 17 1/2 point line.
27:31
You know, South Florida with the beat down of Boise State start
27:35
the year. That was impressive on that
27:38
Thursday night. And they definitely look like
27:41
they're an improved team. They've got some, you know, some
27:45
great transfers in there that I think they're really going to,
27:48
you know, be a tough out for anybody.
27:50
And Florida, obviously they're #10 on our XPR, we expect them
27:54
to have a pretty good season. They need this win because their
27:57
schedule is very tough. So they can't lose anything like
28:00
this. It's at the Swamp.
28:01
I expect them to win. But keep an eye on it.
28:04
It might be a good barometer of like, hey, how good is Florida?
28:06
Florida handles South Florida pretty good.
28:09
Beat them by 20 plus points. Maybe Florida's a little better
28:12
than we expect. And then on the flip side, like,
28:15
hey, if if South Florida makes this a game and keeps it close,
28:19
you know, maybe Florida is a little bit overrated this year.
28:22
So something to keep an eye on there in the swamp.
28:25
I love it. Those are three games I'll have
28:27
my on as well. Daniel for my third quarter 3U
28:31
matchups. I've got my eye on 1st.
28:33
I want to award our week 1U matchup of the week goes to Ohio
28:36
State versus Texas Elite. No notes.
28:40
Perfection for this week. Three games, 3 matchups for
28:44
uniforms. I got my eye on one.
28:46
Oklahoma, Michigan. Not a surprise.
28:48
We're going to pick this game again.
28:50
Should be just a great I say a helmet Game 2 classic uniforms.
28:56
Michigan, please wear Mace pants.
28:57
Please please please please love Jacob 2.
29:03
BYU Stanford 2 very classy uniforms.
29:07
Think BYU scheduled to wear their royal blue helmet jersey
29:12
of white pants. Stanford with the classic just
29:14
like Cardinal red. Again, red versus blue.
29:18
Good color matchup, classy and simple.
29:20
That should be a great one to watch.
29:22
And lastly, Daniel Oregon versus Oklahoma State Oregon came out
29:28
with the best combo they've had. Best combo they would have
29:31
beaten any combo last year. I loved I love when Oregon uses
29:35
the duck wings on the helmet. To me, it's like iconic Oregon
29:39
or you you know exactly what team it is like that is their
29:41
tradition is to do that that with a more classic uniform
29:45
style they've worn the last couple years looked really,
29:48
really good. Excited to see what they've got
29:50
this week on the on their what to wear calendar for the crowd.
29:55
This is wear green, so I don't know if they're going to have a
29:57
green unitard like Oregon. Hardly ever messed up with
30:00
uniforms. They had some last year.
30:02
Oklahoma State, of course, for the last few years had gone back
30:04
to a more classic Barry Sanders era uniform.
30:09
So that orange and black with the green and yellow should look
30:12
really good on the field together.
30:16
Excited to see those uniform matchups this week.
30:20
Annual fourth quarter. We've made it four games against
30:24
the spread. We're going to pick starting
30:26
with at noon. We've got you know an old well
30:31
was where are some you and Baylor both in the Southwest
30:33
Conference. They were right.
30:36
I believe so. Yeah, it was.
30:38
I'm going. To look it up.
30:39
Is everybody in the state of Texas, I believe, plus Arkansas
30:42
and then Arkansas? Yeah, I was like, I'm just
30:45
confirming you. Baylor and SMU.
30:47
There you go. So an old Southwest Conference
30:50
rivalry in the state of Texas. This is Big 12 versus ACC now.
30:54
SMUA 2 1/2 point favorite at home coming coming off of an
30:59
opening win. Baylor coming off of an opening
31:00
loss at home to Auburn. Who do you like in Dallas?
31:04
Yeah, Baptist versus Methodist. Tale as old as time.
31:09
This one's going to be good. I think that Baylor really
31:11
showed me something against Auburn.
31:12
I think that they were, you know, competitive.
31:15
And there were moments where you saw, saw your Robinson really
31:18
Robertson really light up Auburn secondary.
31:23
Those 3 touchdown passes in Week 1.
31:25
Kelvin Jennings had a great year last year.
31:29
Obviously took this team to the playoff for SMU week 1.
31:33
Pretty good day, Nothing crazy, but I'm interested to see what
31:37
this this is more of a even match up, but obviously the 2
31:43
1/2 point spread would indicate that as well.
31:45
Who's going to bounce? You know, is is Baylor going to
31:47
bounce back and even this up? I like SMU in the game.
31:51
The 2 1/2 point spread isn't entirely crazy.
31:55
It's, you know, something that it just a field goal wins it.
31:57
So I'm not necessarily treating this like a pick em, but you
32:01
know, very few games are won by one or two points.
32:03
So I do feel good about a three-point victory for SMUI
32:07
think that they are in a better position in this one being at
32:10
home. And so I'm just going to go SMU
32:12
straight straight up, but they're going to they're going
32:15
to cover. I think they win this game
32:17
probably by a touchdown 2 1/2 points.
32:20
I'll lay that easy I. Don't want to mention you went
32:22
one and three last week. I went two and two.
32:25
That brings us both to two and three on the season, 40% against
32:29
the spread. It's early you get a three in
32:32
one week and you're back above 500 so rooting for that yeah I'm
32:35
also going to SMU here I did not walk away impressed with Baylor
32:40
last week. In fact, my red flags went up
32:42
with OK run defense looks bad. And again, like you, this is
32:49
still after one week you're trying to use priors to Auburn
32:52
did not feel the need to throw the ball in that game, which is
32:55
why I walked away with still questions of how is Jackson
32:58
Arnold fixed because they just absolutely had no reason to
33:02
throw the ball and they've got elite weapons on the outside so
33:04
that they didn't really need to do that to win.
33:07
They were able to run at will. Last year.
33:09
Baylor's past defense was the worst part of their defense.
33:13
And so I I just my red flags up wondering what Kevin Jennings is
33:16
going to do to his defense this week.
33:18
I actually like SMU by more than a touchdown in this game at home
33:23
by a touchdown or more. So I'll lay the 2 1/2 pretty
33:26
easily here. Yeah, yeah.
33:28
I like SMU, like 342724 somewhere in there.
33:33
I think they're going to score some points like Auburn did in
33:35
this game. So give me the stings to get it
33:37
done against Baylor for me, for a team that we thought could
33:41
compete in the Big 12. I know neither one of these
33:43
would be conference losses. But to start O2, you know, you
33:47
hope that you can get some momentums because I do think
33:50
they can compete in the Big 12 still.
33:51
For Baylor, let's go to Ames, IA.
33:55
The Cyhawk game. Iowa State favored by three in
33:59
this game against Iowa. Daniel, who do you like in the
34:03
Psyhop? Yeah, we know this one always
34:05
gets weird. This one's not, you know, one to
34:09
be taken lightly. There's never an easy answer
34:12
here. I don't think both these teams
34:14
know each other really well, and I think they play tight in this
34:17
game. Impressive win last week for
34:19
Iowa, where they actually scored some points.
34:22
It actually, you know, felt like they have an offensive pulse.
34:25
That being said, I've said for a while that I think Rockebec is
34:29
the best quarterback in the Big 12.
34:32
I think that he's the best quarterback in this game. 5
34:36
touchdowns on the year already through the air.
34:39
And then, you know, I I think that the quarterback run game is
34:42
going to be a big deal as well for Iowa State.
34:46
I like the weapons that they have and they're at home.
34:49
It is the big noon kickoff, so I'm going to lean Iowa State.
34:53
It's a 3 point game or a three-point line.
34:56
I think they win this by I would, I would say they cover.
34:59
I think they're going to, you know, 4 to 6 points win this
35:02
game. They're not going to run away
35:04
with it, I don't think because of just the weirdness around it,
35:07
but I feel comfortable laying the points with Iowa State.
35:10
I think they come out on top. Daniel, this game I look at and
35:14
tempted to just take the points, like just blindly.
35:18
Whoever's the underdog, take the points.
35:20
Since Matt Campbell got to Iowa State his first year, they lost
35:24
by 40. It was 43 to three.
35:27
Since then, the margins, whether win or lose, have been 3-10.
35:32
One, 10371. So this has been a close game
35:39
consistently for the last what is that, 788 games?
35:45
So like, that's where I just I'm tempted to dislike rivalry game.
35:49
Take the points. The away team has won the last
35:53
three matchups in this rivalry. So again, Iowa on the road, you
35:58
know, they on paper are the more physical team.
36:00
But I'm with you. I am I'm laying the points with
36:03
Iowa State here. It comes down to like, what can
36:06
you count on? And I can count on Iowa's
36:10
defense being good, but Iowa State's is also good.
36:13
Like both teams have a good defense.
36:15
So I do like an under like last year, I think this game was 20
36:18
to 19 somewhere in there. And I think both defenses are
36:21
going to have advantages over the offenses.
36:23
But again, what can I count on? And I cannot count on Iowa's
36:27
offense. So Iowa State's offense much
36:30
more reliable to get it done. So the three points does scare
36:33
me in this game because like, I think they can win this game by
36:36
1 and they'll be thrilled. But I will lay the point and say
36:40
that Rocco Beck in this offense gets him by a field goal.
36:43
Worst case, we push here, lay the points.
36:46
Give me Iowa State in the sidehawk game.
36:49
I like him. Like I mean, I'm being
36:50
optimistic. You like 1710 like 27 total
36:53
points. Like take the under.
36:55
They get it done late. It's an, you know, a great it's
36:58
1010 for like the whole game and then a late touchdown they win.
37:02
Lay the points of Iowa State. Daniel A a renewal of a rivalry.
37:08
The border war between Missouri and Kansas out of conference
37:12
game again. This was a a Big Eight game back
37:15
in the day when they shared the same conference.
37:18
Missouri and Kansas. Kansas traveling to Como,
37:22
Missouri and drink. What's a 6 1/2 point favorite?
37:25
Who do you like in Colombia? Yeah, I didn't give this in the
37:29
last one. I should have just as far as
37:31
Iowa State having played two games already because of the
37:34
week zero and then you know against Iowa only having one
37:38
game. Similar thing here.
37:40
Kansas played a week 0 game and then played last week.
37:44
So they've got two games under their belt.
37:46
I do see that as an advantage. So I think that Iowa State had
37:50
that advantage for the Iowa for the side Hawk game in this one.
37:54
I think Kansas has that advantage of a couple of games
37:56
of eval versus Missouri only having the Central Arkansas game
38:01
under their belt. Now, I do think that Missouri
38:05
feels good about Beau Prabula, and he did learn how to say that
38:10
since I'm probably going to be singing a bunch this year.
38:13
Prabula, he looked great. Obviously in Central Arkansas,
38:15
SEC shorts called them the Ohio State of the Atlantic Sun, which
38:18
I thought was a hilarious line. They looked dominant on both
38:22
sides of the ball. Of course you got to look at the
38:24
opponent, but a lot of the I'll say this, when you play a team
38:28
like that, you want to see the guys you expect to play well to
38:33
be the ones making the plays in those games.
38:37
If that if that kind of makes sense.
38:38
You don't want to have, you know, it looked like, hey, we
38:42
have the wrong guys starting or we expect too much from this guy
38:45
and this other guy looks better. You don't want any of those
38:48
questions. I feel like they've got some
38:50
alphas. They've got some guys on that
38:51
defensive line that can play Tribule looked good at
38:54
quarterback. They've got some some good
38:57
receivers that I think some guys stepping into roles that maybe
38:59
they didn't have last year. I think you're kind of getting
39:02
some of that picture. Missouri's the better team.
39:05
Jalen Daniels and his 12th year of college football at Kansas is
39:10
electric and he's got 7 touchdowns on the young season
39:13
so far. I am very tempted to just
39:16
straight up take points and just see what happens because I do
39:20
weigh heavily on having multiple games early in the season like
39:25
this where you can, you know, know your team a little bit
39:28
better. But I will see that for a much
39:32
more talented Missouri team. I'm not going to overthink.
39:35
This is less than a touchdown. If this was 7 1/2 points where I
39:38
had to give up more than a touchdown, I really do think I'd
39:41
be going the other way with this with Kansas.
39:44
But I'm going to go Missouri. I think Missouri minus the
39:47
points is the right play on here.
39:50
I think all you have to lay is a touchdown.
39:53
Give me that one all day. And yeah, I think Purbula is
39:56
kind of going to put his name out there as one of the top
40:00
quarterbacks in the SEC as as the season progresses because
40:04
he's very much good, you know, through the air and on the
40:07
ground. So excited to see kind of what
40:10
the result of this one is in this rivalry renewed.
40:12
Same thing Daniel in the last one where I'm like rivalry game
40:15
tempted to take the points with the road team.
40:17
Let me rephrase that I am going to take the points the road team
40:19
here I'm going to take Kansas. I good on good is going to be
40:24
the Kansas offense against the Missouri defense.
40:26
It's going to be good on good in this game.
40:27
The mid on mid is going to be the the Kansas defense against
40:32
the Missouri offense. Not bad.
40:33
But mid to me as I dive into some advanced stats here, like
40:36
it seems like a game that should be like a 4 1/2 to 5 1/2 point
40:41
spread. And I know we're like playing
40:42
with a point here potentially, but it's enough to make me want
40:48
to take the points in a game that I do feel like could go
40:51
either way here. But no, no results going to
40:53
surprise me. I think Kansas blowing out
40:56
Missouri would surprise me. I could see Missouri blowing out
40:59
Kansas, but I can't see Kansas going on the road and winning
41:02
this game or keeping it close. Like we we blink and it's it's
41:06
2724 Missouri and maybe even it was like a, you know, a pretty
41:11
good win and Kansas scored late to bring it back within three.
41:14
That seems like the kind of game script for me.
41:17
So 6 1/2 points, I think Missouri wins the game.
41:20
But I am going to take the points with Kansas here and I'm
41:23
with the on. They've had a couple games to
41:25
get the offense rolling. Missouri was messing around
41:27
playing two quarterbacks last game, one of them got hurt.
41:30
Now they got to roll with Purbullah.
41:32
Sam Horn got hurt. So give me the points here.
41:35
Think Missouri wins, but I think Kansas covers in the border war.
41:38
Very glad this game is back and on a college campus.
41:43
Daniel, the big one for Week 2. And look, there's several Week 2
41:47
just seems like an underrated Saturday where it's like, yeah,
41:50
there's like 1 headliner game and there's a few were.
41:52
What if we just have upsets all over the place, Unranked teams
41:55
beating ranked teams because there's only one ranked unranked
41:57
match up and that's Oklahoma in Michigan.
42:00
Oklahoma, a 5 1/2 point favorite, you know, Brent
42:04
Venables goes out and brings over the whole OCQB combo.
42:09
They had an elite defense last year but could not find a pulse
42:13
on offense. Michigan last year, you know,
42:17
rebuilding year after a championship.
42:19
The whole coaching staff leaves. The defense was very good last
42:22
year. They still beat Ohio State.
42:24
You know, the the the NCAA hammer comes down.
42:29
Not really on Michigan. We're past all that.
42:31
They start Bryce Underwood last week.
42:34
They now got to go on the road to Oklahoma.
42:36
Should be a really good game. Oklahoma 5 1/2 point favorite.
42:39
Daniel. Who do you like in Norman?
42:42
Yeah, this one, man, It's dude, does it not?
42:45
I don't know. For me, this game would feel
42:50
like an upset if Oklahoma won just by recent success.
42:56
Obviously last year was bad for Michigan, but you know, them
42:59
winning the championship two years ago and then just their
43:02
success before that, Oklahoma kind of somewhat of a downward
43:06
spiral, is looking for that resurgence.
43:08
I know Oklahoma's at home, but that's just kind of the vibe I
43:11
get. If if Michigan were to win this
43:13
game, I feel like a lot of people would say, Oh yeah, you
43:15
know, it's Michigan. Michigan should win these kinds
43:17
of games. And then I feel like the
43:19
opposite for Oklahoma. Oklahoma won.
43:21
I I wouldn't put rushing the field past them, not that it's
43:25
that you know, it's not a top five Michigan team right now.
43:28
Michigan, you know, we talked about them in their XPR, how
43:31
they dropped eight points, 88 slots after their win against
43:35
New Mexico State or New Mexico, whatever the Lobos, they that
43:41
times looked impressive and then at other times look like they
43:43
just were, you know, trying some things out.
43:47
You start to wonder where they playing with their food a little
43:50
bit to try to figure out more of their team.
43:52
Were they just getting, you know, having bad luck or were
43:56
they getting blown off the ball a little bit?
43:58
Justice Haynes looked really impressive. 3 touchdowns.
44:00
Bryce, Bryce Underwood, he's going to be the headliner.
44:03
The thing that came off jumped out to me when I I had this game
44:06
on a secondary screen. Obviously I was watching LSU,
44:08
Clemson primary. I did go back and watch some
44:10
highlights as well to kind of get more of the vibe.
44:14
Bryce Underwood didn't really look like a freshman.
44:16
He looks and not just physically, I meant his poise.
44:20
He operationally, he didn't look frantic at any moment.
44:24
He just looked like he belonged and that's a big deal.
44:28
The other players around you are going to get that vibe too.
44:31
And if you look like you belong, not just physically, but like,
44:34
you know, your presence, I think that's going to go a long way.
44:39
I'm going to be some would say a coward.
44:42
I'm in the middle. This one, I think Oklahoma wins
44:44
it at home, but I am taking these points because I think
44:48
that people are going to sleep on Michigan a little bit.
44:51
I think Michigan's going to lead for most of this game and it's
44:53
going to take kind of a comeback by Oklahoma.
44:57
One of my one of my famous there's going to be a lead into
44:59
the second-half games, but Oklahoma will come back and win
45:02
this one late. They'll keep it close.
45:05
It'll be maybe a three-point win.
45:07
John Metier. I think they can get it done.
45:09
But I like Michigan, man. I like them to come in there and
45:12
shock some people and have a lead and be running the ball and
45:16
do what they like to do and really make Oklahoma beat them.
45:20
Michigan's not scared, even though they they had a a bad
45:23
year last year. They have been in these big
45:25
games much more recently than Oklahoma has and they've come
45:28
out on top. So it might be adna trait.
45:31
So give me, give me Michigan with the points, Oklahoma in the
45:36
wind. I love it.
45:37
Yeah, I agree in that Bryce Underwood looked like he
45:41
belonged last week, right? Like he he did not like out of
45:44
place. He showed flashes of why he was
45:46
the number one overall recruit in the country in for Michigan's
45:50
future. I think like starting him this
45:52
year to get him the experience. Best case, he takes you to
45:55
playoff like I picked. Yeah, I told you, you know,
45:58
after we picked the playoff, that was the team I felt worst
46:00
about. And, you know, worst case, he
46:03
gets a year of starting experience to make a playoff for
46:04
in the next two years as a freshman.
46:06
High, high ceiling. Look, you pay that much for a
46:08
player, probably start him and love that play to do it.
46:11
But he looked the part last week as a starting quarterback.
46:14
I don't love what I saw from Michigan's defense last week.
46:18
And that's what concerns me is playing a far inferior opponent.
46:22
Like the defense did not look up to Michigan standard, especially
46:27
on the defensive line, which again, if you go back and listen
46:30
to our kind of all right now that we've picked everything,
46:32
what do you feel bad about? I circled the Michigan defensive
46:35
line and said, I don't think it's going to happen.
46:37
That Michigan defensive line not great things coming out of camp
46:40
that carried over into Week 1. I know it's inferior opponent.
46:43
Maybe they all of a sudden they're going to Oklahoma and
46:45
they look like world beaters. But John Matier looked really
46:49
good in Week 1 and I've been skeptical of this.
46:52
You know, one QB and OC is just going to fix the Oklahoma
46:56
offensive problems from last year.
46:57
And they all said 5 receivers get hurt.
47:00
So it's not just that. But I'm still skeptical of
47:03
they're going to get a new QB and OC and all of a sudden go in
47:05
10 games after going 6:00 and 6:00.
47:09
But he looked really good in his first start.
47:12
You know, John Mateer, JC Dub. So a veteran QB against a
47:16
defense that didn't look great last week.
47:20
I just, I don't love, I don't love, I don't love Michigan's
47:25
chances in this spot in Week 2. I think of this game as being
47:28
played in. In Week 9, we could have a
47:31
different conversation, but Week 2, Oklahoma's offense looked
47:36
ready to roll against the Michigan defense.
47:37
I have a lot of concerns about freshman keep you on the road
47:40
against an elite defense as well.
47:41
Oklahoma's defense was phenomenal last year.
47:44
They looked the part in Week 1 as well.
47:46
I like Oklahoma to win in a low scoring game like 2720.
47:50
So I think they cover the five and a half.
47:52
Give me the Sooners here in Week 2, Daniel.
47:55
We're starting to get some data on these games.
47:58
So the more games we get, the more data I get to sift through.
48:01
Even this week's pretty hard because you got a lot of priors
48:04
baked into it too. But to recap for our picks,
48:07
we're both on SMU laying the points.
48:09
We're both on Iowa State laying the points.
48:11
I'm taking the points with Kansas.
48:13
You're laying them with Missouri.
48:15
We both think Missouri wins that game.
48:17
We both think Oklahoma wins. I'm laying the points of five
48:20
and a half. You're taking the points with
48:22
Michigan. Think it's close, Your game, not
48:24
Daniel. Any parting thoughts?
48:25
They just excited. These are the types of weeks
48:28
that people go into saying, well, we had that great opening
48:31
week. There's not really any great
48:32
ranked matchups. There will be upsets that we are
48:35
not expecting. Ole Miss be on alert with
48:39
Kentucky. It happened last year.
48:41
Just keep an eye out, man. There's going to be a storyline
48:44
pop up this week that somebody is going to be on the ropes with
48:48
the team they should not be on the ropes with, and it's going
48:52
to change the scope of perhaps this season.
48:55
The chaos is our friend in college football, so let's just
49:00
enjoy the ride. Then you know, I'm looking.
49:02
I'm like, which team should be on highest upset alert for
49:06
Saturday? Illinois.
49:08
I've got on, I mean red hot upset alert.
49:13
I'm not saying this facetiously. Indiana proved to me this isn't
49:18
this is more than a year. One thing, 34 1/2 points go beat
49:22
KSU by 40. Oh goodness.
49:24
I'm not concerned about Oregon. You hit the nail.
49:26
That mean Ole Miss 10 1/2. It's just a stinker, dude.
49:31
It's a stinker. Half seems like an easy That's
49:33
an. Easy lay if you just are looking
49:36
at facts and talent dude. Florida.
49:38
Just watch out. Dude, you know again, we didn't
49:40
even mention Arizona State only laying 6 1/2 at Mississippi
49:44
State, which they had to come back to beat last year.
49:47
Mississippi State had a 17 nothing lead in that game last
49:49
year. This one's in start Vegas, dude.
49:52
You got to go there, you know, as Greg McElroy would say,
49:57
Klanga. We're going to be talking about
50:00
at least one big upset. Yeah, this time next week.
50:03
So excited to watch it. Be sure to follow us at the
50:06
Extra Point pod on Facebook, Instagram and YouTube.
50:08
You can follow Daniel on Twitter at the South Daniel.
50:11
You can follow me on Twitter at Jacob Karns with AK.
50:14
That'll live for this edition of The Extra Point.
50:16
He is Daniel. I am Jacob.
50:18
See ya.