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Elon Musk Discusses SpaceX Starship Launch at Twitter Spaces · Elon Musk Podcast

0:00
Everyone here today. All right.
0:07
Goodbye to Chris, Brogan to speak as well just to intended
0:10
to be a Starship. The Colts will get the launch
0:12
coming up tomorrow and I assume. Yeah.
0:15
And we can hear me okay? Just to sort of gel. hopefully,
0:19
is so Great. Yes.
0:23
We're going to holiday tomorrow is to me.
0:25
It won't choose at would like to say that there's a good chance
0:29
that it gets pushed forward since we're going to be pretty
0:31
careful about. This launch.
0:35
If it does go wrong, it's a lot to go.
0:37
Wrong Starship is the biggest rocket ever made and it's it
0:45
over twice, the thrust of a Saturn 5, the 75 Moon rocket,
0:48
which is largest rocket ever, to get all but roughly twice the
0:52
mass good 33 engines and booster or gets six engines on the upper
0:58
stage. The ship, this is a lot of
1:01
engine so I would It could just set expectations low if if if we
1:07
get far enough away from the launch pad to before something
1:14
goes wrong, then I think I would consider that your success just
1:17
don't blow off the launch pad. Let's see how it grows.
1:21
Hey hello. How are you a feeling for
1:23
tomorrow? What's your prediction is really
1:26
because it's a big ask isn't it? 3390 % /. 6 seconds.
1:31
A launch commit. Do you really think Dad is God?
1:33
Good chance to launch a first time or maybe you'll take a few
1:35
attempts? Yeah, but that's what I'm saying
1:40
is I think the problem is triggering a launch.
1:42
Abort is on the sisters. The first launch of a urraca
1:46
direction. Never launched booster before.
1:48
With test-fired, the booster up, Morris it.
1:51
So chances of us, the triggering an abort and having to postpone
1:56
launcher. Hi, that's why I want to just
1:59
set expectations appropriately. This is not like a, some sort of
2:03
train leaving the station at precisely 9:00 to 3:00 a.m. or
2:06
something like that. It's it.
2:08
It's a the first launch of a very complicated gigantic rocket
2:15
so it might launch tomorrow but if it were going to be very
2:19
careful and if we see anything that gives us concern will
2:23
postpone the launch. If we do launch, I would
2:26
consider anything that gets that does not result in the
2:29
destruction of the launch Mount itself.
2:32
The launcher launch pad at stage zero effectively.
2:36
I would consider that to be a win. now that may sound like, I
2:40
don't like lower expectations something, but it's worth
2:43
bearing in mind that the Russian N1 rocket which is the For every
2:48
closest comparison to Starship, was it had a string of failures
2:53
that were reached orbit and that was when the Soviet Union was at
2:57
Peak rocket capability with the a team.
3:00
With Maximo stick maximum carrot meaning like you would be hero
3:03
the Seward your hand if you succeeded at work to the gulag
3:06
if you don't. So maximum motivation, the A+
3:10
team, they still failed. With keeping that perspective.
3:15
So it may take us a few kicks of the can hear before we reach
3:18
orbit and then you on reaching over to bring the booster back
3:22
and land. We've got to bring the ship back
3:24
and land and I were in order for the reusability to be rapid.
3:29
It's got a land where it took off because transporting this
3:32
gigantic be surrounded is extremely difficult, so it's got
3:35
to land. It'll basically land back on the
3:39
meccans alarms. It's got to do seven.
3:41
All of this has got to be Published wasel TPP would to
3:44
useful orbit significantly above zero.
3:47
We're not like the first ones to think of the idea of
3:49
reusability, obviously everyone was aware of reasonability from
3:53
the beginning of over the rocket base, but it's just a
3:56
staggeringly difficult. Technical issue.
3:59
We live on a pallet. Where's barely possible?
4:01
Like this to hustle video game will be set to and a level of
4:05
difficulty, just below impossible.
4:07
I marry people the public may not realize that Rockets are
4:10
actually does. Big complicated Rockets are
4:14
thrown away every time they fly with exceptional buck and I wear
4:16
the Buckeyes where it won. It comes back and lands, but we
4:20
lose the upper stage and have to catch the faring, far out to
4:22
sea. And even the boo stage, we
4:24
usually have to land down rage. I don't think like rocket goes
4:28
up and in gravity stops at a certain point, but that's not
4:31
actually the case. If you look at a long exposure,
4:33
you'll see that there's an arc to the rocket flight.
4:36
You actually go up vertical for a short period of time and then
4:39
you do gravity, tiny told over And then you start going
4:43
horizontal to the Earth. So surface.
4:45
Ooh, what matters is that you could do for into orbit is your
4:48
velocity parallel to the Earth's surface.
4:51
Same Perfect Analogy. Richard bike like tether ball.
4:54
The ball stays horizontal, if it's going really fast or all in
4:58
a roulette wheel. It's when the outward
5:00
acceleration equals the inward acceleration, a about
5:03
acceleration due to motion equals the inward acceleration
5:06
due to gravity. That's when your experience zero
5:09
gravity, there is an arc out to sea.
5:12
Lovely. And but we got to this is really
5:15
like this sort of first step in a very long journey that will
5:19
acquire many flights if those that are followed the history of
5:23
Falcon 9, and or thought, one actually out in our attempt at
5:27
usability will and it really add them all up.
5:31
And then you might have been like On the close to 20
5:34
attempts, before we actually recovered a, a stage.
5:39
And then it took many more flights.
5:41
Before we had usability, that was meaningful where we didn't
5:44
have to rebuild the whole rocket.
5:46
Now, develop 90mm is real Kick-Ass, team are just making
5:50
it look easy relatively speaking launching every 4 days or so,
5:55
And just to give you a sense of what the fuck man team is,
6:00
hopefully accomplishing this year, is if you close 90
6:04
launches, maybe 100 with an average of 17, tons metric, tons
6:10
to a useful orbit. That's an important part because
6:12
sometimes you'll hear these payload to orbit numbers, but
6:14
they'll be too forward. That's not useful, useful would
6:18
be one where we can take your styling satellites.
6:21
That would be useful. But what, what?
6:23
What? Over time we drop them off at So
6:27
that means in the order of 1,600, tons to orbit this year,
6:33
the rest of all the rest of the rocks on Earth, the zero
6:37
probably do three or four hundred tons.
6:39
So just talk 9 will do 80% of all Earth Mouse to orbit this
6:44
year. Assuming there aren't any major
6:47
things that go wrong. I like China is like 10 or 20
6:51
chip Chris, you may know this better than I do like 10 or 12
6:55
percent and then the rest of us is like 8%.
6:58
Yeah, it's absolutely dominating and it's an interesting thing,
7:01
because listening to you talk to you.
7:02
So many times that you talk about Falcon 9, they're all
7:06
coming back. One, the other three candidates.
7:09
I hate using the word routine because you can't use word
7:12
routining spaceflight, but they're all Queen back.
7:14
One by one. And you've got people of worked
7:16
on that. For canine recovery, who are now
7:19
working in Starship. Like last Blackmore, these like,
7:21
genius-level people. You've got working that and that
7:24
gives you confidence in maybe Starship will have similar some
7:27
challenges. Eventually my work, and then
7:29
you've got all these, booths ship down the road, Junction
7:32
side, double line array to go and you've got the evolution
7:36
with booster. 9th, Avenue sites, whatever happens.
7:38
We boosted 7, we get improvements automatically Bruce
7:40
tonight. So you've got like an evolution
7:43
path where it's not like other Rockets way if they launch and
7:46
they fail. They've got like a big downtime
7:48
before they get Nick already. You've got them all lined up
7:50
down the road, but yeah, and for those listening, I apologize
7:55
like some, so now step in and out of like this.
7:58
Stream, rocket walk stuff, too. I'm trying to address things on
8:02
the level of someone who doesn't know how rockets work, but is
8:06
curious and like level 9 Wizardry.
8:11
So, it's a mixture. Some of this is going to sound
8:13
like Greek, but yeah, to your point Chris.
8:18
That was actually funny things that were actually dying.
8:20
Get the truck off their what happens to it because there are
8:23
so many improvements between booster or seven booster 9
8:26
literally hundreds. And for example like I some
8:29
major ones is like we removed from hydraulic thrust vector
8:32
control to from Brewster 72. Booster 9 the the entire heat
8:39
shield structure on the base of booster, nine years completely
8:42
redesigned for Brewster seven. So we're sure Stephen has a
8:45
retrofitted heat shield. Between the engines and this is
8:50
very important because if I think about if you have 33
8:52
engines and if any one of them goes wrong it's like your
8:55
daughter like if it's like having a box of grenades okay,
8:59
set that it is a but a really big grenades and so if one of
9:03
those grenades goes off, you don't want the other grenades to
9:05
go off to. If it react to retro fit in the
9:07
heat, you up to blast yielding essentially.
9:09
And he chew is both flash yielding and heat shielding at
9:12
the base of buescher 7 because it's Lee we realize that the
9:15
initials shielding their we had just way too weak.
9:21
So we're taking that booster 7 apart.
9:23
Put it back together again. So many times.
9:24
It is not tizzle rocket artillery artillery at scale.
9:29
We're just want to take off and move on to boost your nine.
9:32
There's still a lot to learn of course.
9:34
There's this is also a sort of full your tardiness rocket.
9:37
So respect me as we're using gas, wide oxygen to pressurize.
9:41
The oxygen tank. Guess it gets like methane to
9:43
pressurize the methane tank. This is a tricky situation
9:49
because of you The gas is trying to liquefy as you're as you're
9:54
trying to pressurize. The thing with this own gas
9:57
naturally, it wants to to cool and what's called the Elledge,
10:00
the pressure and gas in the tags at once to cool down a track as
10:03
quickly as possible. So you're filling it while it's
10:06
condensing at the same time, how those relative rates work is
10:09
remains to be seen because not down that with with you the
10:12
shape of the booster with full tanks.
10:14
So there's question, will the engines be able to provide
10:17
enough pressure guests to keep the The booster in the ship
10:21
pressurized raised to be seen. We will hopefully, we'll get
10:24
good data either way. Even if it does work as well as
10:26
we'd hoped, there are a number of many improvements in the
10:30
valves throughout the vehicle, Choi tricky, when you want to
10:33
have a Val work across a wide temperature range.
10:36
So you can design a valve that's going to work.
10:38
It really cold temperature or valve that will work at hot
10:41
temperature but it's really hard to design a valve that will work
10:44
for all the way from cryo too hot.
10:46
So there's a million ways is rocket could fail.
10:49
I could Could go on hours. What what do you think?
10:54
What would you say? What do you do?
10:55
If he does its age I'm talking probably guess past Max Q may be
10:59
staging that be a massive win. Let's face it.
11:01
Massively yes. Yeah he gets her there though
11:04
but if you gave him further, will you be thinking, maybe
11:06
Chopstick catches in three or four times time?
11:10
Or are we getting a bit ahead of ourselves there?
11:14
Beautiful. Doesn't how well did that these
11:18
launches go but it's an easier. moved to try to catch the
11:24
booster because The Roosters the Bursar but like I said, I think
11:30
we've done before albeit, not with chopsticks, but we're
11:34
anything about like ground, safety drives the break.
11:36
We want to be very careful about not endangering anyone on the
11:39
ground. We can do.
11:41
The booster can boost back to the launch pad and with a very
11:45
relatively small Landing ellipse.
11:47
So you're not really even Bruce back and not overfly populated
11:51
areas. But for the shift now you've got
11:54
a much harder problem because you're coming in.
11:57
And like the space shuttle, you coming in over the United
11:58
States. So we've got to make sure the
12:00
ship can land accurately at through, Max Heating and Max
12:06
heating is excreted. That is Extreme like this thing
12:08
is coming like the ship is coming in like a meteor blazing
12:11
hot. So does the heat shield work?
12:14
There's a big question, which I think the history of the like
12:16
that. We know the heat tiles work, but
12:18
if we have gapping, the tiles or the hot gas seal at the flaps is
12:24
a quite a dangerous place. That's The hinge point of the
12:27
flaps formula, front/rear flaps, really difficult to achieve a
12:32
hot gas seal there because you've got something that's
12:34
moving. The flat page is rotating, but
12:37
you got to stop hot gas from getting through there and then
12:41
relight the engines. And land, let's let lot to be
12:46
done. I'm sure that people want to
12:47
talk, I don't dominate. I mean this probably cause like
12:50
it's and don't put on here as well.
12:52
I'll just simply say it honestly.
12:57
Let's we all hope it works. We all wish you the best.
13:00
We always you team the best and it's Nick.
13:03
It's really for Humanity because he's such an exciting Rocky.
13:05
What it can do in the capabilities of it.
13:07
We all wish you the best Eon. Thank you.
13:10
Yeah, it's Kurt. This is definitely give me some
13:13
pointers for things to improve about spacers because it's not
13:15
that easy to actually look through list of requests
13:19
actually figure out who to Gibson able to speak, seems to
13:25
work out best for us for smaller spaces.
13:27
But once you get past a certain level of request.
13:29
It gets crazy. Like, I don't see, I actually
13:32
don't see Chris Davenport on the list.
13:35
Oh yeah, he's right next to me. Yeah.
13:36
But if I can bring it on. Okay, baby.
13:41
No doesn't make you. See, make your calls.
13:46
Maybe I'll label it. Yeah, I do my work.
13:52
Head did it, dude? New.
14:04
I think I'm like very toilet. Kristen port and later.
14:08
As well. Tell you what while I'm talking
14:11
to Ellen, he won't be any questions.
14:14
I'll ask you all the questions you want to ask so you can be
14:17
one way of doing it. And fulfilled comes on housework
14:19
and I've got a quick query about KSC Starship you got 39, a
14:23
guitar Bill. Are you still looking at LC 49?
14:29
Yeah, we've got with both the launch Terror at 39a.
14:35
And but before we do launches from there, we have got to have
14:38
redundancy for crew. So that we're building out, the
14:42
ability to launch crew from pad 40 at Cape.
14:46
Now, it doesn't give us renounce.
14:47
You guys felt, they have either so it's like sorry guys.
14:50
Like we want to use tape for operational launches as opposed
14:53
to developmental. Yeah, there should be if you got
14:56
the launch pad, but if you have to Actually blows crowd pretty
15:00
close to the Falcon heavy. Launch pad at something goes
15:03
wrong. It's going to be some down time.
15:05
So we want to get past the developmental stage here at
15:10
Starbase before we launched out of the gate.
15:15
I found John Kraus, I've now got the ability to invite me to
15:19
price breaks. John, can you speak and confirm?
15:21
You've got the ability to speak. He's definitely been invited.
15:29
There's a cap that like, Micah icon.
15:35
Yeah. John, if you can hear his sweet
15:37
little thing on the bottom left-hand Corner, Mike is on
15:40
this tie, back to make sure it comes on.
15:46
ADI me now. Then go.
15:49
Oh, cool. Yeah, I was kind of just
15:51
listening in and join the conversation.
15:53
I think the one thing I'd ask is, well, it was kind of famous
15:56
phrase, always go to 11, Elon, could you speak in what that's
15:59
reference do with Falcon? And like, what are the things
16:01
you look at going into the morrow?
16:05
What is the 11th thing if you will?
16:10
Probably reference spinal tap, but the second flight of Falcon
16:13
1, the 11th risk was a coupling of the / modes of the upper
16:20
stage liquid oxygen tank with the control frequency of the
16:25
engine. And I'd ask for the top ten
16:27
risks at the time and I was actually kind of worried about
16:31
that coupling, but I don't see it on the top 10 list and I said
16:34
of that risk. So I thought, okay, so this is
16:38
now a task The 11 in each department, the top 11 risks.
16:42
If it's actually, more than that, people is no real limit.
16:45
But there's one goes to 11, which is louder than loud from
16:48
spinal tap. And then there's damn. if it had
16:51
asked that the 11th risks route, I would have maybe made it, what
16:56
it may be taking some action on the got into a student, was not
16:59
born. So that's where that comes from.
17:02
He asked me like what my biggest concern is about this launch.
17:06
I took this to concern the similar to what the Soviet and
17:10
one ride paste which is not a lot of engines.
17:14
Their stage combustion shows, high pressure, very high
17:17
pressure engines for high performance engines.
17:19
If one of them does let go, there's a domino in to Take up
17:25
and out the other engines, or the stage.
17:28
Was a launch pad which case Very Bad Day.
17:31
That would be. My biggest concern is losing an
17:33
engine that Cascades into a lot of the launch pad is really the
17:37
thing we're concerned about. So if we block the launch pad
17:42
and it's really much more of a fireball, that it is an
17:44
explosion, there's a very big Fireball and it'll melt the
17:48
steel and slag the Launchpad. They would take a surprise
17:52
several months. So rebuild the launch pad, which
17:55
we melt it. And so my top hope is pleased
18:00
with a faint smile upon us. And we clear the launch pad
18:03
before anything goes wrong. That's all I'm asking.
18:07
Yeah, and by the way, the nn1 blew up with a launch pad, like
18:10
we have said several times daily in space.
18:15
So know she'll ask you some good questions about Starship know
18:17
you can speak here. I've been here.
18:19
Hey yeah, hey Ilan. First of all, thanks for hosting
18:23
this Case, this is really great and I was just curious in the
18:26
midterm. What is the priority with
18:29
Starship to develop and demonstrate refueling capability
18:32
work on the hls variant? Or are you just in general still
18:36
proving the concept? No I think that I'm just like I
18:41
said I really want to lower expectations as much as possible
18:44
here and use us as an exactly what the Soviet N1 rocket which
18:52
was which is really the closest rocket comparable to Starship as
18:57
Starship is in some ways more risky than the n 1.
19:01
It's a lot more thrust. It's running a higher chamber
19:03
pressure to foreclose stage combustion and it's got a
19:06
cryogenic fuel tragic. Fuel has the added risk of
19:10
gasps, wicked of fuel gasifying and forming a fuel air fuel
19:14
oxygen pocket, which then it so if you get a few lakhs pocket
19:19
forming like that led to of its drug addict.
19:23
Boom. So we like to even if it
19:25
happened in an engine compartment, it would really be
19:27
quite quite bad now. We do have we are writing
19:31
nitrogen. Purge on the as far as much as
19:34
we possibly can on the engines that on the launch pad and then
19:38
we have a CO2 Purge in flight. Right.
19:41
So that should mitigate the risk but if you think if the engine
19:46
throws pretty bleak, faster than you can emerge, so that's
19:49
possible. And then you can actually get a
19:51
few other that fuel accommodation.
19:53
As Curtis says, it's a very risky flight.
19:56
This is not something that is a sure thing at all are wondering
20:00
in the next few months. If we see a successful flight,
20:03
what happens next Yeah, I think I just need to set expectations
20:11
that probably won't be. And maybe the second one will be
20:15
in Maple or maybe the third one will be but probably tomorrow
20:18
will not be successful. If I success one means reaching
20:23
orbit, this is not to say that there's something we're aware of
20:27
that if we have something we're aware of, we would deal with it.
20:29
But there isn't anything where it, where it's just a very
20:32
fundamentally difficult thing. That's why I prefaced it by
20:35
saying that the Soviet rocket Engineers, which really was the
20:40
entire Warsaw Pact Frank, their combined capabilities, still
20:47
resulted in Failure, despite the maximum motivation There were
20:51
the A-Team so just please set your expectations appropriately.
20:55
That is what success is not, what should be expected,
20:58
tomorrow. That would be insane, but we
21:01
made a number of improvements with a day, right?
21:04
Sorry and I will need to go back to work shortly.
21:08
What actually matters here is the fact that we are building
21:11
rockets at a rapid pace. So we've got booster 926 almost
21:18
ready to go and we have a steady Cadence of Rocket production
21:22
afterwards and with significant improvements between each
21:27
iteration of the Rockets. So you can think of the payload
21:30
for this mission is information information that allows us to
21:34
Improve the design of future Starship builds.
21:39
That is our only goal if we get any information that allows us
21:42
to improve design of upcoming builds of Starship and it is
21:47
success. It is purely learning just
21:52
really what matters here now and in the long-term.
21:56
So it's such a cool predict what will happen between now and then
21:59
but in the long run meaning two or three years, we should
22:04
achieve full rapid reusability. The physics of this desire, not
22:07
allow for that in a way that felt lines is not because we've
22:12
got much higher performance engines, it's the summit caught,
22:15
there's some economies of scale. And we're using a propellant
22:18
that is Fire ice b-but. Phone referees ability.
22:23
Will mean that the cost of a Starship flight will be less
22:29
than the cost of an Expendable Falcon 1.
22:33
So meeting. Maybe it's a few months, a
22:36
million dollars per flight or a few million dollars per play or
22:38
something like that. If you have a high flight rate
22:40
and your floor a usability human rocket, the size of Starship
22:44
Mike might be a million but bells of Flyers, which is
22:48
follows the mind. And then you combine that with
22:50
what little refilling, which requires this sort of a ship
22:54
docking with the ship, which we know how to do because we
22:57
figured out about cooking with dragon.
22:59
And if we're talking with us elves, that's way easier than
23:02
docking with the space station. So I like the exciting thing I
23:06
think is that this is an actual path to being a multi-planet
23:11
civilization. That's it, that took set that
23:14
the fact that success is one of the possible outcomes is the
23:18
amazing thing. Now, we need to make it from
23:21
being one of the possible outcomes to actually being
23:23
probable. That's very difficult to read an
23:27
arduous and a two or three years ahead of us.
23:31
We're probably many bumps on the road, but at the end of that, it
23:35
should, we should, we should have something that enables a
23:38
base on the moon and a base on Mars.
23:42
And we really are designing this for just a at extremely high
23:46
mass blogs to this, the moon and Mars and it, it can do both.
23:51
But you really need an immense amount of mass rough water
23:53
manager, probably five million tonnes, still useful, load to
23:58
Earth, orbit to get to a million useful.
24:02
Chance to Mars surface, which probably were you need for a
24:06
self-sustaining civilization. And in order to pass the great
24:12
voltar effectively, one of the Fermi, very Paradox.
24:16
Great vultures, which is always a multi-planet species or not.
24:19
The Mars has to be self-sustaining, would dreams
24:23
RFP, shifts stuff. Coming for any reason
24:25
whatsoever. Mars was not die out.
24:27
That's the really the threshold and then we as a civilization
24:31
Ization. Need to achieve that threshold
24:33
before global thermonuclear Warfare or any other kind of
24:36
event that eradicates. So it was engine.
24:38
That's the essential test. So which comes first and
24:42
hopefully never will three bit. You might be and also do it
24:45
proves to be the case that Civilization gradually subsides
24:49
and dies in a whimper was adult diapers instead of for the bag
24:53
but either way we've got to make hay while the sun shines and we
24:57
are at this brief moment in Civilization where it is
24:59
possible to become a multi-planet species, and
25:02
hopefully that we're just do stays open long enough for us to
25:05
actually do it. That's our goal.
25:09
Yeah, I think we got a chance but it's less is lysate Ilan.
25:15
This is a joey. Can you hear me?
25:18
Yeah, Joey from the others. Yeah, just real quick, I guess
25:20
this goes back to at least question.
25:22
What kind of testing Cadence are you expecting after this
25:25
Mission? I guess, either in the scenario
25:27
that something blows up along the way, or if it's Flawless,
25:31
how many more missions I guess. Before we see some real hard,
25:34
we're going to space, thanks. I'm just saying, we don't know
25:40
those fearful could make it all the way to orbit or it may blow
25:42
up on the pad. So I would encourage people to
25:46
review the history of the Soviet N1 rocket, and we're just really
25:50
very impressive rocket design and at it, but never reached
25:54
orbit. And one of the missions that lit
25:56
up the entire pad. We don't know if we knew we
25:59
would take action but I reviewed everything with the team today,
26:02
and nobody can think of anything that would make a big difference
26:05
to our probability of success. So we therefore, we must move
26:09
forward and give it our best shot.
26:11
Have you gotten any Clarity on the costs that you're targeting
26:15
for building these things? Once it gets into it production
26:18
rate and how much did this particular Starship system cost
26:22
to build? If you can, if it is really
26:24
actually matter what those particular vehicle cost, every
26:27
beer would like saying, if you've gotta say a soap Factory,
26:31
what did your first bar of soap cost 10 million dollars?
26:34
But that's not actually what you are so crossed because what
26:36
matters is, what does it cost at body production?
26:39
So and then if you got a fully reusable rocket now you're not
26:43
throwing it away every time. So that if you're not throwing
26:47
away every time then your what matters is your cost of
26:49
propellant rocket is methane, oxygen, roughly, 23% methane by
26:55
mass, the 77% auction, and one actually primary push the oxygen
27:00
percentage Liars. It's mostly oxygen.
27:02
And the end of the cost of liquid.
27:03
Oxygen is roughly the cost of electricity.
27:05
So because you just pull out of the air in the car.
27:08
Fight methane is the cheapest fuel that exists.
27:10
So It's one could take a hat, get the cost of per pound
27:18
Theory. Well below half million dollars
27:21
and then it's how many flights you have and what's the
27:23
refurbishment cost per flight if it's flat.
27:26
And then how often do you fly terms?
27:28
The word you divide the capital cost by having to have your fly.
27:33
So here we see a path to at volume on the order of a million
27:38
or two million dollars per flights total or total cost.
27:42
For over 100 metric, tons to orbit.
27:46
And that these are like absurdly, good numbers.
27:50
By historical Saturn's, get our to even have a good 40, even be
27:55
remotely possible to do, 100 tons for a million bucks to
28:01
orbit fully. Let's just boggles my mind.
28:03
Right? Great.
28:04
So far beyond ever, the important thing is that is one
28:07
of the possible outcomes, so it for other rocket designs.
28:12
Yeah. There are several orders of
28:14
magnitude where you from that and that is not one of the
28:17
possible outcomes for the other rocket designs.
28:21
When you give an Endeavor, it should always ask is success in
28:24
the set of possible outcomes. If not, you've got a real
28:27
problem, at least. In this case, it is in the set.
28:31
Now then once it is in the set of possibilities then you work
28:35
on improving the probability. Got your email in about the
28:41
orbital refueling or tests. What kind of testing timeline do
28:44
you? Imagine with that?
28:45
Do you do that in parallel through other types of tests or
28:48
when should we expect those? You're sure you're not going to
28:56
try to refill. I use the word refill because
29:00
technically it's mostly oxygen. That were transporting up there.
29:04
It's quote, I said roughly 77 percent oxygen, 23 percent fuel
29:09
but point which that this thing is going up and coming down
29:12
reliably. That's when we aim to do open
29:16
refilling. Good afternoon, Ilan.
29:20
Just a quick question. Here is is awesome to see Esther
29:22
from everyday. I should not in terms of your
29:25
launch tomorrow can use your. Obviously, the payload bay door
29:28
is welded shut. But did you guys put anything in
29:30
there? Obviously, we've had a history
29:31
of some interesting items on an Argo launches and then what made
29:35
what help you get to the decision.
29:37
To not try to attempt to solve land a ship, 24, near Hawaii.
29:41
Since boosters, having is doing a boost back, burning doing that
29:43
in the gold. Thanks.
29:50
There isn't any possibility of learning of their ship, soft
29:55
liner to this. That would mean putting legs on
29:57
a relaxing ride. You change the shape of the
30:01
center of gravity, the center of mass rearward and then you have
30:05
to put ballast in the forward section.
30:07
So it's really it's not a simple matter to tribe landed
30:12
somewhere. The what matters is it looked
30:14
like said the we need to set expectations low if it gets too
30:18
well, but that's a massive success.
30:19
That's more than the best over. At this modest over Engineers
30:22
can do at the height of their powers with maximum motivation.
30:26
Then there they were aiming. For least the initial iteration,
30:29
was not written. Any one was not a reusable
30:32
rocket. This one is.
30:33
So we've got a few years to go before we can count on
30:35
reusability and isn't it just to round it off here for tomorrow
30:39
specifically and whatever other times?
30:41
What are the biggest factors holding that up?
30:43
And what are the biggest things you're worried about going into
30:46
that performance wise and I just success wise obviously mentioned
30:49
earlier that clearing the tower getting off is a big win but
30:54
other things are pretty concerned about going into
30:59
Advocates enlisted, mile long. They said I my main concern is
31:03
that when we light the engines that we didn't that the engines
31:11
are not known the engines explode and that if Windows
31:14
explode, that is contained and does not Domino into the other
31:18
engines with a stage. That's the you were 33.
31:22
Engines are all made to work. They do.
31:24
If one does not work but it is not because their structure of
31:27
the vehicle. That's all.
31:29
That's really what I'm talking about here.
31:33
Kind of a student and then the these get far enough away from
31:36
the launch pad such that. If it's something does go wrong,
31:39
it is not cold. Destruction of the launch pad.
31:41
That is that the anything about that is?
31:44
I'll be jumping for joy. I think a lot of us will be
31:49
jumping for joy. I mean, maybe I can ask a final
31:52
question for you. Do you want this exact from CSI
31:54
Starbase? I feel like I've watched very
31:57
closely over the last Three years and I like to be critical
32:02
just to let people know what's going on because I feel like
32:04
sometimes there's a lot of misunderstanding of what's
32:07
actually happening out there and I guess I want to ask you like
32:10
to a technical question but I guess based on what you
32:14
initially thought was going to be the biggest hurdle.
32:17
Like what was the actual largest hurdle to get this first
32:23
launched under way? Because obviously, there was
32:25
tons of tses use tons of like actual vehicle is Issues
32:30
structural and structural qualification testing but if you
32:33
had to pick out of all of the things that you guys came up
32:36
against leading up to this biggest.
32:38
A like, what was the hardest thing to get over in order to
32:41
reach tomorrow morning at 7 him? It's hard to say, which is the
32:47
hottest because it's what it's going to watch the hottest, or
32:49
what's the hottest relative to expectations?
32:51
I suppose that question pick one thing it's us, could be the
32:54
engines, is that we had to do a complete redesign of the rafter
32:58
engine, because it was such a younger one, was simply not
33:02
reliable. And almost impossible to make.
33:05
So complete redo of the Raptor engine were after to follow the
33:11
single biggest thing that set us back.
33:15
I don't see six to nine months, probably your other.
33:21
We've had a lot of lot more challenges with the ground
33:24
system, which is underappreciated because it
33:28
seems like it was just a the ground system.
33:31
There's not so hard, but actually the ground system, it
33:34
is very difficult. I promise you that.
33:37
I appreciated I've noticed every single changes along the way and
33:40
it's been interesting just from my point of view, it seems like
33:45
it room. Most recently, you guys
33:46
definitely drastically increase the amount of sensors in order
33:49
to like make sure that everything goes flawlessly.
33:52
I feel like a lot of people don't really appreciate the
33:54
amount of changes that you guys made over the last few months in
33:57
order to make this go off flawlessly.
34:00
I don't know. I feel like the GSE stuff Just
34:05
doesn't get covered enough overall like even from SpaceX
34:09
like letting people know like what's all involved and just
34:12
getting this off the ground. I don't know if you have any
34:14
comments on just like a huge thing that you wish didn't
34:17
happen leading up to this or something like that.
34:22
GSE related. I can't really think of one
34:26
likes single thing. I guess in retrospect we should
34:30
have gone with relatively off-the-shelf vacuum jacketed,
34:34
horizontal, bar, Hanks or propellant, instead of you
34:38
didn't try to make our own. You recall them like the hot
34:41
dogs, the big horizontal, vacuum jacket a tanks, so probably
34:45
should have gotten done with those instead of trying to build
34:47
our own. But I would like to say the
34:49
bait, the importance of the ground side is really it's just
34:54
as important as the boot. Stage and the ship.
34:57
So you can think of it like a cool load ground, side stage 0,
35:01
and if you get stage 0 wrong, then that then you're going to
35:05
have the worst day of all word. You've locked launch stand and
35:09
the rocket. So, it didn't go outside working
35:16
well, because the graph side also controlling, when you start
35:18
up the rocket, the ground side it is what's controlling the
35:22
aboard. So if you have an issue with the
35:25
engines of the stage or anything like that and you got to D tag
35:30
and say the stand, then you're relying upon your Stage 0 at
35:35
your apartment to keep holding safe and all the software logic
35:39
that goes with it to some plug, big bug Forbes to Stage 0, even
35:43
though it doesn't fly, it's just sorta stage one to part with
35:46
that. I got to get back to a guy's
35:48
state. If I can, just one quick
35:49
question, what do you think the chances are this thing actually
35:52
lights up and launches tomorrow? Or do you think there's a higher
35:55
chance of a scrub? It's more like this.
35:59
Grab the nothing. Go to Tuesday and Wednesday or
36:02
do you think there might be some other scrub their know?
36:06
There's an issue. Thanks, thanks to Hong Kong.
36:09
Take Along a Fair Winds and following Seas tomorrow.
35:59
It's more like this. Grab the nothing.
36:00
Go to Tuesday and Wednesday or do you think there might be some
36:03
other scrub their know? There's an issue.
36:07
Thanks, thanks to Hong Kong. Take Along a Fair Winds and
36:10
following Seas tomorrow.