Latest / Simply Bitcoin / $700B Bank CONFIRMS $500k Bitcoin IS CLOSER Than You Think! | EP 1248

Transcript

$700B Bank CONFIRMS $500k Bitcoin IS CLOSER Than You Think! | EP 1248 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  So literally hours ago, another multi trillion dollar bank has
• 0:05
  confirmed that $500,000 Bitcoin is not only closer than we
• 0:11
  think, but they're getting even more bullish on who is about to
• 0:15
  adopt Bitcoin. Now let's not forget that's the
• 0:17
  news today, but literally yesterday, the $4 trillion giant
• 0:21
  JP Morgan also made a little bit of a Bitcoin backflip.
• 0:26
  And it's not just these American centric banks who are opening
• 0:30
  and openly adopting Bitcoin at a very rapid rate.
• 0:34
  So before we get to the global adoption of Bitcoin by all of
• 0:38
  these massive banks, I want to jump straight into the news with
• 0:42
  my incredible, always optimistic Co host Opti.
• 0:46
  And we're going to get straight into discussing what is this
• 0:49
  brand new Standard Chartered 500,000 of prediction?
• 0:54
  Why do they think that we're going to see $500,000 Bitcoin
• 0:59
  much quicker than most people think?
• 1:02
  We have some articles that we want to dive straight into here
• 1:05
  on this topic. And we're going to be talking
• 1:08
  about why Jeff Kendrick continues to get more and more
• 1:13
  bullish because again, this bank Standard Chartered, this isn't
• 1:18
  the first time that they have been really bullish on Bitcoin.
• 1:21
  They've actually been openly promoting Bitcoin, getting
• 1:24
  bullish on Bitcoin for over 2 years now.
• 1:27
  In the very depths of the bear market, Jeff Kendrick was coming
• 1:31
  out and adopting and openly embracing Bitcoin when it wasn't
• 1:36
  even popular to do so. Let's not forget back in 2023
• 1:41
  Bitcoin was what, $15,000 a coin, $20,000 a coin.
• 1:46
  A lot of people at that time in 2022 and 2023, they were saying
• 1:51
  look, bitcoins going lower, ignore Black Rock adopting
• 1:54
  Bitcoin. This is insignificant.
• 1:57
  This is just a bear market bounce.
• 1:59
  This is what everybody was saying about Bitcoin back in
• 2:01
  2023. But no, there was one person or
• 2:05
  one bank in particular who was really alone in the trad fire
• 2:11
  realm who was openly bullish on Bitcoin.
• 2:13
  And this is, of course, Jeff Kendrick from Standard
• 2:16
  Chartered. They have remained incredibly
• 2:19
  bullish even in the depths of the bear market, the most recent
• 2:23
  bear market, they were openly predicting, look, Bitcoin's
• 2:26
  going to hit 100K in 2024. What happened?
• 2:31
  Bitcoin is pretty much at 100K by the end of 2024.
• 2:34
  So they've not only been right on that first prediction, which
• 2:37
  I think is massive signal, but they have also been right about
• 2:42
  many things along the way. They accurately predicted Trump
• 2:48
  getting into office. And they also said, look, Trump
• 2:50
  get into office, this is going to be incredibly bullish.
• 2:53
  This is going to really spice things up in the Bitcoin space.
• 2:57
  And this is exactly what we have seen.
• 2:59
  We've seen things only get more bullish.
• 3:01
  Things only accelerate. And right now Standard
• 3:05
  Chartered, they're making some really bullish predictions.
• 3:09
  OK, Again, $500,000 Bitcoin and it is coming much quicker than
• 3:14
  most people think. Now before we get into the exact
• 3:16
  time frame that Standard Chartered has put out there on
• 3:20
  their newest Bitcoin prediction, let's have a think of the
• 3:23
  broader picture. So we have all of these massive
• 3:25
  banks getting into Bitcoin. We've got JP Morgan, we talked
• 3:30
  about them yesterday, Jamie Dimon.
• 3:32
  There's a new clip circulating online of Jamie Dimon and he is
• 3:37
  right now saying, look, I'm not the biggest Bitcoin believer,
• 3:41
  but we're buying Bitcoin at JP Morgan.
• 3:44
  Again, let's not forget we covered this earlier in the
• 3:46
  week. JP Morgan is holding a ton of
• 3:50
  micro strategy. Think about that for a moment.
• 3:54
  Why would Jamie Dimon publicly say, look, I'm not the biggest
• 3:58
  Bitcoin fan. I don't think it's an
• 4:00
  innovation. I think blockchain is the bigger
• 4:02
  innovation. Why is Jamie Dimon saying these
• 4:05
  things about Bitcoin, but then privately at his bank, his
• 4:11
  massive $4 trillion bank, they're openly buying micro
• 4:15
  strategy. Do you think there's a little
• 4:18
  bit of signal there? Do you think this is maybe a
• 4:21
  little bit of a sign that Jamie Dimon's portfolio is kind of
• 4:26
  speaking for itself? I think it could be I, I, I
• 4:30
  think a lot of these banks, some of them are going to be, you
• 4:35
  know, I mean, a little bit more public with their Bitcoin
• 4:40
  embracement like Standard Chartered.
• 4:42
  But then other banks are going to be a little bit more, let's
• 4:45
  say, guarded and a little bit more secretive like Jamie Dimon.
• 4:49
  I think Jamie Dimon's intentions are a little bit hidden.
• 4:52
  But then of course, we have all of the other banks adopting
• 4:54
  Bitcoin. Let's not forget Goldman Sachs
• 4:58
  big, you know, big Bitcoin fan. They're sitting on a billion
• 5:02
  dollars, which is huge. We also have lots of other
• 5:06
  really interesting massive multi trillion dollar banks that is
• 5:12
  openly embracing Bitcoin. We have UBS over there in
• 5:18
  Europe. We have.
• 5:21
  We also have, was it Swiss National Bank, the central bank
• 5:25
  all the way over there in Switzerland, Opti openly
• 5:29
  embracing and adopting Bitcoin. What are your thoughts on the
• 5:33
  the lay of the land right now? Well, I've been saying for a
• 5:36
  while, Luke and and great, great intro Luke.
• 5:38
  Luke's doing an incredible job here.
• 5:40
  We're throwing them into the flames here on Simply Bitcoin.
• 5:43
  But yeah, it is becoming very interesting to see what is going
• 5:46
  on in the narrative shift around Bitcoin currently, as much as
• 5:50
  we've seen historic Bitcoin haters, you know, you know, talk
• 5:53
  trash about Bitcoin, the adoption of Bitcoin, we are
• 5:56
  seeing them seemingly pivot on a dime the last couple of weeks.
• 6:00
  It seems like everyone is waking up to the very simple idea that
• 6:04
  you look, you can't just dig your head in the sand, ignore
• 6:06
  Bitcoin. You might need to get some
• 6:08
  Bitcoin or rather some Bitcoin type exposure as we're seeing
• 6:13
  with this news story from Standard Charter.
• 6:15
  And like you said, the most interesting part about Standard
• 6:18
  Charter is they just keep raising their price predictions
• 6:21
  here. And, and it's all based on a few
• 6:25
  things and we will cover them right now.
• 6:26
  But it's the institutional adoption of Bitcoin and of
• 6:29
  course, the new interest from nation states going full head
• 6:33
  and toes into Bitcoin. Things are heating up.
• 6:36
  I know we've been saying for a while and there's been some
• 6:39
  bearishness on the show around the sentiment, but it seems like
• 6:43
  the end of this year, we might be in for some absolutely
• 6:47
  explosive moves. I know Luke and I, Luke and I
• 6:51
  were talking about it this morning, rather yesterday
• 6:53
  morning of dude, maybe 500 K, you know, even $1,000,000
• 6:59
  Bitcoin. It might be happening a lot
• 7:01
  sooner than we think. And look, obviously we don't
• 7:05
  know where the price is going, but it does feel like we might
• 7:09
  be going into some 2017 vibes here by the end of this year and
• 7:13
  I'm all for it. So, Luke, let's cover this
• 7:15
  article, cover the news source, and then we will chat about it.
• 7:21
  Look, you're you're muted, I think.
• 7:27
  There we go. I'm I'm back.
• 7:29
  I was muted, but I do share that sentiment.
• 7:31
  Optic, I think, you know, a lot of people are thinking, hey, you
• 7:34
  know, we had that 2021 bull run that was a little bit
• 7:37
  lackluster. And again, for the past five
• 7:40
  years, I don't think we've seen a real Bitcoin bull run.
• 7:42
  I don't think we've seen a real Bitcoin bull run since 2017, to
• 7:45
  your point. So I think there's a lot of
• 7:47
  people who have entered the space post 2018.
• 7:50
  Again, that was the year that I started learning about Bitcoin.
• 7:53
  I didn't get to experience that parabolic rise, you know,
• 7:57
  following the news as closely as I am today.
• 7:59
  So I didn't even know what a real bull run feels like.
• 8:01
  But just having a look at the price charts and the sentiment
• 8:04
  and the videos from mid 2017, it looked pretty crazy.
• 8:07
  It looked pretty wild. And I think that could be maybe,
• 8:11
  I don't think, maybe I think it's going to happen.
• 8:13
  I think we are going to see a bull run like 2017.
• 8:16
  I would if I was a betting man. I'd say the odds that we're
• 8:19
  going to see one in 20/25/2026 are so much higher than I think
• 8:24
  they were in 2020, in 2021. Why?
• 8:28
  Well, that's because like we're covering today, Opti, the banks,
• 8:31
  they're all in Bitcoin. The banks right now have their
• 8:34
  Bitcoin bags loaded. I think the banks right now are
• 8:39
  not only ready to embrace, embrace Bitcoin, but they've
• 8:43
  already embraced it. I think they're ready to let it
• 8:45
  fly. That's why I think right now I'm
• 8:47
  super bullish on, you know, the Bitcoin price in the near term.
• 8:52
  Again, I think everybody should be thinking about things in
• 8:54
  probabilities, not certainties, but I think the probabilities
• 8:59
  that we're going to see a face melting Bitcoin rally today in
• 9:02
  2025, much, much higher than 2020 and 2021 because we now
• 9:07
  have standard charters saying look $500,000 Bitcoin price
• 9:13
  target is now the new norm. Now again, these guys, they were
• 9:17
  predicting $100,000 Bitcoin in 2024 and it came true.
• 9:21
  And we can see, have a look at this, here's a tweet from Bmag.
• 9:25
  Standard Chartered says that ACC 13 filings support Bitcoin
• 9:29
  reaching $500,000 by 2028 of the What do you think about?
• 9:34
  That 100K by 2028, yeah, let's say that seems reasonable to me.
• 9:41
  I mean, it's really, look, it's very interesting because when
• 9:45
  you think of their kind of reasoning to it, it does seem to
• 9:49
  add up. I know if you're new to Bitcoin,
• 9:51
  even if you've been in Bitcoin for a long time, from one or
• 9:55
  100K to 500K, when the law of big numbers, it does seem like
• 9:59
  it's, you know, a big, big move. But in in Bitcoin terms, a 5X in
• 10:04
  a parabolic move is not out of the picture here.
• 10:07
  It's like a non zero chance that we'll see something similar.
• 10:11
  Obviously there needs to be more capital coming into Bitcoin, but
• 10:14
  I think on a conservative level, 500 K by 2028, that's, you know,
• 10:19
  a cycle away. I don't think that's that crazy.
• 10:26
  Me neither, dude. And now let's break down the
• 10:29
  reasoning from Standard Chartered.
• 10:31
  So they're talking about these SEC filings.
• 10:35
  They're saying this is the reason for why we could see, you
• 10:38
  know, $500,000 Bitcoin. So they actually have reasoning.
• 10:42
  They're not just saying look, the money printer is going to go
• 10:45
  Burr, as Kaizen correctly notes in the chat here, we are going
• 10:49
  to be talking about the money printing bonanza that could be
• 10:51
  coming our way. But this website right here,
• 10:54
  Bitcoin treasuries, 202 public companies right now have Bitcoin
• 11:00
  in their public treasury. Hey.
• 11:02
  At least click it. Yeah, I'm looking at your Google
• 11:04
  tab here. Yeah, I love this tab because it
• 11:08
  shows us a #202 public companies.
• 11:12
  And every single time I checked this, I did a live stream on
• 11:14
  this last week and it was 192 public companies.
• 11:18
  We've already seen another 10 public companies adopt Bitcoin
• 11:22
  in the past week. And this is the reasoning for
• 11:25
  why Standard Chartered could see $500,000 Bitcoin a lot quicker
• 11:29
  than most people think by 2028. That's soon.
• 11:32
  That's fast. That's much more rapid than most
• 11:34
  people think, but I think they actually have good reasoning to
• 11:38
  back up this massive bullish Bitcoin price prediction.
• 11:43
  They also have this really cool chart.
• 11:45
  Now this is showing the growth of the amount of Bitcoin held by
• 11:49
  government. So you can see Figure 1
• 11:51
  government holdings of Bitcoin ETFs and micro strategy.
• 11:56
  Have a look at some of the biggest swingers on this chart.
• 11:59
  The light blue. This is looking at the
• 12:02
  Norwegian, this would be the Norwegian government or the
• 12:06
  Norwegian sovereign wealth fund. The chart doesn't specify, but
• 12:10
  we always show you guys on this channel that the Norwegian
• 12:12
  sovereign wealth fund and central bank, they're getting
• 12:15
  into MicroStrategy in a big way. So they are the light blue
• 12:18
  really big chunks on these charts and on the we, we, let's,
• 12:24
  what are we, what color are we going to call that at the bottom
• 12:26
  right here, up there, We're going to call that green.
• 12:28
  Don't ask. Me, I'm color blind Bottom.
• 12:30
  It looks beige to me, but maybe it's green, I don't know.
• 12:35
  But I think is colorblind. True story, true story, We're
• 12:39
  going to call that green. Have we called that lime green?
• 12:42
  But the lime green is showing us.
• 12:45
  But that is Abu Dhabi's investment into the Bitcoin ETS.
• 12:49
  Have a look at that growing and essentially going from zero in Q
• 12:53
  3/20/24 to a massive chunk in Q 4/20/24.
• 12:59
  And what I find interesting is this number has only grown and
• 13:02
  grown and grown since the last quarter of 2023.
• 13:07
  Now this is the reasoning for why Standard Charted thinks
• 13:10
  that, hey, things could be a little bit different.
• 13:13
  We have big boys entering the space right now.
• 13:15
  We have governments, we have 200 public companies being forced to
• 13:21
  release these SEC filings with Bitcoin on the balance sheet.
• 13:25
  And the number that I think is huge up is that one on the left
• 13:28
  hand side of the screen, 3.33 million Bitcoin is held by
• 13:34
  public companies, private companies, ETFs and governments.
• 13:40
  Now again, this is, I guess people are always going to sell
• 13:45
  Bitcoin. I can't argue with that logic.
• 13:47
  But what I will say is that this is my opinion.
• 13:50
  I want yours in a minute, Opti. I think the large majority of
• 13:54
  the Bitcoin in public treasuries, private companies
• 13:58
  and in particular government holdings of Bitcoin, I think
• 14:01
  that's going to be really sticky, so to say.
• 14:04
  I don't think these guys are going to be trading Bitcoin.
• 14:08
  I think these guys, and if I had to be a betting man here, if I
• 14:12
  had to bet, I think they're going to be holding Bitcoin for
• 14:15
  the long run. And so hey, we got 3.3 million
• 14:18
  Bitcoin there. We know that 4 to 5 million
• 14:20
  Bitcoin are lost already. We're looking at what 7 to 8
• 14:24
  million Bitcoin, I think is going to be locked up for the
• 14:28
  long term. Opti, I want your thoughts on
• 14:30
  that. Is that crazy moon boy logic or
• 14:33
  is there a little bit of? Well, that's where my gut is
• 14:37
  going as well. I mean, hearing kind of some of
• 14:40
  the sentiment you get out of like the Black Rocks or even
• 14:44
  Michael Saylor and some of the people that are following the
• 14:47
  Michael Saylor strategy, a lot of them are saying something
• 14:50
  very similar to what you said. Now, I, I did get some pushback
• 14:53
  in the chat when I first said that, that I think Wall Street
• 14:56
  is probably going to be holding this Bitcoin long term.
• 14:58
  We do know there's pension funds holding Bitcoin though.
• 15:01
  There was an interesting news, I, I forget which one it was,
• 15:04
  they basically bought some Bitcoin and then they sold it.
• 15:07
  So maybe we have some data points to show that maybe
• 15:09
  they're just here for the Fiat games.
• 15:11
  But I'm also kind of on the sentiment that it looks like
• 15:15
  these institutional buyers are going to be holding Bitcoin long
• 15:18
  term. And if that is the case,
• 15:20
  obviously we won't know until hindsight.
• 15:21
  But if that's the case that they're going to be essentially
• 15:24
  huddling Bitcoin, then you know, this whole 3 green, one red meme
• 15:29
  that we've had for a while, of course.
• 15:31
  So talking about the bull run or the Bitcoin cycles, it's three
• 15:34
  years that are positive and one bad, you know, bear market year.
• 15:38
  I'm starting to lean towards the idea of what standard charter
• 15:41
  saying here that maybe we're not going to get a 2026 bear market.
• 15:46
  And if that is the case, then that would lead to the idea that
• 15:49
  these institutions aren't selling their Bitcoin.
• 15:52
  Now going even further, we know what Senator Lummus has been
• 15:55
  saying and we will be talking a little bit about Senator Lummus
• 15:58
  later in regards to the stablecoin bill.
• 16:00
  She has been advocating, RFK Junior has been advocating and
• 16:04
  it looks like Trump is a fan of what Senator Lummus has been
• 16:06
  saying that they want to buy a in Bitcoin and lock it up long
• 16:10
  term. So if that's the prevailing
• 16:12
  sentiment here that they want to hold Bitcoin long term because
• 16:15
  of all of the crazy uncertainty in the traditional financial
• 16:18
  market, it sounds like they want to hold this stuff long term.
• 16:22
  They want to hold Bitcoin. They want to hotto Bitcoin on a
• 16:25
  nation state and institutional level.
• 16:27
  And I think that could be the catalyst to really break the
• 16:30
  cycle theory. Obviously we don't have many
• 16:32
  data points here in regards to the cycle theory.
• 16:35
  We only really have three. But if we do have these big
• 16:38
  institutions, capital players that are holding Bitcoin and
• 16:41
  they don't get freaked out because of volatility, obviously
• 16:44
  they're the smart money, they're the traders here.
• 16:46
  So I'm sure a subset of them will trade Bitcoin and it could
• 16:50
  be the majority of them that trade Bitcoin.
• 16:52
  But we are are seeing that we are entering a new demographic
• 16:56
  of people buying Bitcoin. And if they do follow the hotto
• 16:59
  meme, then I think we might be able to say that we are not
• 17:03
  going to see these crazy drawdowns in 2026 and beyond.
• 17:07
  It could just be up and forever. Yeah, I mean, it's really
• 17:13
  interesting. You mentioned a lot of really
• 17:15
  interesting things. I want to unpack their opti for
• 17:17
  anyone who might be new. This is the cycle theory.
• 17:20
  This is the three green, one red kind of motion that Bitcoin has
• 17:24
  followed for 16 years. Typically, Bitcoin goes up for
• 17:28
  three years in the halving year and a couple of years after the
• 17:32
  halving. And then we typically have a
• 17:34
  little bit of a consolidation period.
• 17:37
  Bitcoin gets into a little bit of a parabolic bull run that
• 17:40
  gets ahead of itself. It gets a little a little bit
• 17:42
  overextended, so naturally we have a year's worth of calling
• 17:46
  off, but what I think is really important that people need to
• 17:48
  study if they're new to Bitcoin on this chart is uh.
• 17:55
  Oh, we lost Luke. All right.
• 17:59
  Well, essentially what he was saying.
• 18:00
  And I I guess I can show you here.
• 18:02
  I'll pull it up. I'll pull it up on my trading
• 18:04
  view. Oh, is he back?
• 18:05
  Is he back? OK, Luke, you're you're South
• 18:09
  American Internet bro. Dude, I think we're just getting
• 18:11
  too bullish. Maybe we off YouTube because I
• 18:14
  was about to make the case for why we might not see one of
• 18:18
  those big massive 80% 12 month extended bear markets.
• 18:25
  Okay, that charts a really interesting one and it's a
• 18:27
  really important one to study because I think a lot of people
• 18:30
  are taking the data from this past 16 years of Bitcoin.
• 18:34
  I think they're extrapolating that, Ford, they're saying
• 18:37
  because we've had these three data points of Bitcoin going up
• 18:41
  for three years, down for one, up for three years, down for
• 18:45
  one. Even a lot of people are saying,
• 18:47
  look, we know with certainty that we can track this data with
• 18:51
  a power law and we can predict exactly where bitcoins going
• 18:54
  over the next 16 years. Now, Opti, you raised a really
• 18:57
  good point. The demographic of the buyer in
• 19:01
  Bitcoin, they are a completely different person today.
• 19:06
  Again, This is why we focus on these announcements that they
• 19:09
  come out nearly every day. We have a new announcement of
• 19:11
  another massive bank up in their Bitcoin price predictions or we
• 19:15
  have a JP Morgan quietly buying micro strategy while publicly
• 19:18
  bashing on Bitcoin. I think all of these quiet and
• 19:22
  more public announcements and embracements of Bitcoin, it's
• 19:25
  the signal. The signal is the buyer of
• 19:27
  Bitcoin has changed. Pre 2020, I think 99.99% of
• 19:33
  Bitcoin's trading volume, it was dominated by the little guy.
• 19:36
  It was dominated by retail plebs who were just buying Bitcoin to
• 19:39
  get rich and they're going to sell it in a bull run to buy a
• 19:42
  Lambo now. I think the demographic of
• 19:44
  person has completely changed. Now instead of wanting to buy
• 19:48
  Bitcoin to get rich and buy a Lambo, the people getting into
• 19:52
  Bitcoin today, they're potentially selling their Lambos
• 19:56
  to buy Bitcoin so they don't get poor.
• 19:58
  It's a completely different 180 flip.
• 20:01
  OK? We've seen the largest, safest,
• 20:05
  most conservative capital allocators around the world
• 20:08
  openly say I want to buy Bitcoin to preserve my purchasing power.
• 20:13
  I don't care about Fiat materialistic things like a
• 20:16
  stupid Lambo. I want to buy Bitcoin so I don't
• 20:19
  get poor. Now again, sounds like a bold
• 20:21
  statement just coming from a 28 year old.
• 20:23
  Kid with a crazy haircut, right who don't believe Luke, How
• 20:26
  about you believe Peter Dunworth?
• 20:28
  He was on the channel recently and he was openly saying, look,
• 20:31
  a lot of the clients that I service again, Peter's a money
• 20:34
  manager, has been for a long time and been in finance for a
• 20:38
  very long time, multiple decades.
• 20:40
  He's saying a lot of the boomers who are his clients are selling
• 20:44
  real estate to buy Bitcoin so they don't get poor.
• 20:48
  Because people are beginning to come to the realization that if
• 20:50
  you have 100% of your assets in the Fiat system tied to real
• 20:55
  estate, tied to your housing or in a superannuation fund, you
• 21:00
  will become poor because your government will simply raise the
• 21:04
  taxes on your Fiat denominated assets.
• 21:07
  Now I know it sounds crazy, Luke, you're just making a
• 21:09
  hypothesis here, but it's not a hypothesis.
• 21:12
  Look out amongst the world for literally hundreds of years, not
• 21:16
  hundreds of years, but for a very long time, there's only
• 21:19
  been 2 governments, 2 countries around the world that have
• 21:22
  citizenship based taxation, America and Eritrea.
• 21:26
  What that means is if you live in those countries, it doesn't
• 21:30
  matter if you leave those countries and go and live in
• 21:32
  Europe for 20 years, you still need to pay taxes to the
• 21:36
  American or Eritrean governments.
• 21:38
  OK, so again, it's a, it's a wild concept.
• 21:41
  It's a wild theory, but it's just showing the tax man in the
• 21:46
  West. It's, it's been trying to trap.
• 21:48
  It's, you know, it's it's entrepreneurs, it's business
• 21:53
  owners who want to use technology and flee their
• 21:54
  countries. So it's a wild, wild, wild, wild
• 21:58
  law, citizenship based taxation. But have a think about all of
• 22:02
  the Western countries who are now saying, hey, we kind of like
• 22:05
  that model, citizenship based taxation.
• 22:07
  We actually want to try to change the tax laws and
• 22:10
  implement it in our country. In the last three years alone,
• 22:13
  we've seen Canada mention it, mention they want to change
• 22:16
  their tax policies to something a little bit more like that.
• 22:19
  The Australian government is about to ram through one of the
• 22:23
  most egregious bills that I've personally ever seen in the
• 22:26
  Australian government. As of July 2020, 5 S literally a
• 22:31
  month or two if you're Australian and if you've got
• 22:34
  money in your superannuation account, you're about to be
• 22:37
  paying unrealized capital gains of 30% if the value of your
• 22:42
  portfolio goes up. So if your retirement account
• 22:45
  goes up, sorry, you need to pay 30% capital gains tax on that,
• 22:50
  even if you didn't sell it unrealized.
• 22:52
  And guess what? Guess who's exempt from these
• 22:54
  taxes in Australia? The people making the laws,
• 22:59
  police officers, judges, politicians, they're all exempt
• 23:03
  from this egregious policy. So again, I'll put my Australian
• 23:06
  rant to the to the side of the table for a moment, because it's
• 23:08
  not just Australia and Canada. We have France talking about
• 23:12
  unrealized capital gains and citizenship based taxation.
• 23:15
  And I just think there's some really scary signs in the West
• 23:20
  and I just think people are going to need Bitcoin much
• 23:23
  sooner than they might think. And I think now that the bankers
• 23:26
  are coming in, we do have this new type of buyer, this new
• 23:29
  entity in the Bitcoin space. I don't, I, I'm less confident
• 23:33
  in saying that we're going to see 80% draw downs with these
• 23:36
  extended 12 month bear markets. I think we can still see a lot
• 23:40
  of volatility. Again, there's money to be made
• 23:43
  by pushing the price of Bitcoin around and you know, maybe
• 23:46
  exaggerating some of the corrections and the crashes.
• 23:49
  So sure, I'm not saying we're never going to see an 80%
• 23:51
  correction again, but what I don't think we're going to see
• 23:55
  is these long extended 12 month bear markets.
• 23:59
  I think when Bitcoin crashes down, I think you're going to
• 24:01
  have some really big entities with some really big buy orders
• 24:05
  just scooping up all of that Bitcoin.
• 24:06
  So, Opti, what do you think about that?
• 24:09
  That long extended rant there? Well, I do like that take of a
• 24:13
  no no longer having long extended bear markets.
• 24:16
  I I'm I'm totally for this. Obviously, we really don't know.
• 24:19
  We're just looking into a crystal ball, but the the the
• 24:22
  metric of having a new demographic buying Bitcoin is
• 24:27
  backed by data. I, I don't have the chart right
• 24:29
  here on me right now, but I did see last week on Twitter that
• 24:34
  while we're seeing this incredible accumulation from
• 24:38
  institutions happening on the opposite side, we're seeing a
• 24:42
  lot of individuals selling their Bitcoin right now.
• 24:44
  So, you know, this is kind of a worrying trend in regards to the
• 24:47
  idea that we always talk about it being the people's money.
• 24:50
  Now it seems like, you know, a lot of maybe old Bitcoin OGS
• 24:54
  holders have been using Bitcoin, holding Bitcoin for a long time,
• 24:57
  are now kind of taking their profits and who is buying this?
• 25:01
  The black rocks of the world, the Michael Sailors of the
• 25:03
  world. Now, you know, we're seeing
• 25:05
  basically some of the biggest banks in the world trying to get
• 25:07
  either ETF exposure or micro strategy exposure.
• 25:11
  So the demographics is fundamentally changing.
• 25:13
  And there's a good comment here by Moonshine Fuel kind of
• 25:16
  backing up that theory. He says like it is possible,
• 25:19
  essentially what Luke and I are saying, that these institutions
• 25:22
  want to attract even more institutional investors and to
• 25:25
  attract even more, you want less of an impact on the drawdown.
• 25:29
  So this could be where we're at right now.
• 25:31
  And a lot of us are obviously we've been Bitcoiners.
• 25:33
  We are kind of, I don't want to say stunted by previous bull
• 25:37
  cycles and the old Bitcoin theory because obviously we
• 25:41
  cling on to the models at work until they break.
• 25:43
  But it does seem like we are seeing a completely different
• 25:47
  metric here, a rather different demo graphic of people buying
• 25:49
  Bitcoin and they may be using Bitcoin in a different respect.
• 25:53
  I covered yesterday what's going on in the bond markets.
• 25:55
  And I do have a interesting thread follow up from Mark Moss.
• 25:59
  And the point that you made, Luke, I think is spot on.
• 26:02
  We're no longer just seeing the degenerate Bitcoin quote UN
• 26:05
  quote speculators here, you know, buying Bitcoin to get
• 26:08
  rich. We are seeing the wealthiest
• 26:10
  people in the world realize that, hey, if I don't get money
• 26:13
  into Bitcoin, I'm going to lose a lot of my wealth.
• 26:16
  And so we have Schwit from extremely healthy people looking
• 26:19
  at Bitcoin to preserve their wealth versus US trying to
• 26:23
  accumulate our purchasing power and, you know, get out of the
• 26:26
  rat race. Now they're like, hey, things
• 26:28
  are blowing up. I might need to get an
• 26:29
  apolitical neutral money that cannot be debased.
• 26:32
  And of course that is Bitcoin. So there is a fundamental shift
• 26:36
  in the narrative going on right now.
• 26:38
  And even it's even on the nation state level.
• 26:40
  We're seeing the nation states kind of look at it the same way.
• 26:43
  It's like if we don't adopt Bitcoin now, we're going to get
• 26:46
  left behind. So it really is a fundamental
• 26:49
  shift. But Luke, you brought up a
• 26:50
  chart. Is this the chart I was just
• 26:51
  talking about? That's the chart you were just
• 26:53
  mentioning my friend. You can see in the gold bar on
• 26:56
  the right hand side 525,000 coins have been paper handed by
• 27:02
  individuals in 2024. But who's bought those coins,
• 27:07
  those Big Blue bars on the left hand side, 519,000 bought by
• 27:13
  hedge funds, ETFs and businesses have bought 374,000.
• 27:18
  So that's entities like Sailor and a lot of these entities who
• 27:22
  I think, again, I don't know, I have no idea.
• 27:25
  I'm a crazy 2828 year old kid with a wild haircut on the
• 27:29
  Internet. I don't know what's going to
• 27:30
  happen. I think that these entities are
• 27:33
  going to be a lot stickier with their hands.
• 27:37
  I think they're going to be grasping onto their Bitcoin for
• 27:39
  much longer than most people think.
• 27:42
  Again, people said in 2020, when Michael's plan was to publicly
• 27:47
  hold Bitcoin for 100 years. That's what Saylor said in 2020
• 27:51
  after he first started buying Bitcoin.
• 27:53
  Look, Bitcoin's pristine asset. I want to hold it for 100 years.
• 27:57
  He said that in 2020, a lot of people were skeptical.
• 28:01
  Even a lot of Bitcoiners are like, yeah, he's just going to
• 28:03
  be a degenerate Fiat bro. He's just trying to leverage
• 28:07
  money and, you know, buy something that's going to go up
• 28:09
  in a bull run. This is the opinion of many
• 28:11
  Bitcoiners. Many people said don't trust
• 28:13
  Sailor. Five years later, he still
• 28:16
  hasn't sold anything. And if not, if anything, he's
• 28:19
  gotten even more bullish. So again, I'm not saying every
• 28:23
  company or every government getting into Bitcoin is going to
• 28:26
  literally hold Bitcoin for 100 years like I think Michael wants
• 28:30
  to in his company, but I think a lot of them are going to be
• 28:32
  holding Bitcoin for the long term, that is for sure.
• 28:35
  So that is where I start to get a little bit more bullish than
• 28:39
  most people because when you start running the numbers, you
• 28:42
  start having to think about things.
• 28:43
  You're like, all right, 4 to 5 million Bitcoin we know are
• 28:46
  lost. Now we have what, 3,000,000
• 28:49
  Bitcoin in the treasuries of ETFs, public companies, and a
• 28:55
  lot of these pension funds. I think a lot of that is sticky.
• 28:58
  So all of a sudden you've got 7 to 8 million Bitcoin out of the
• 29:03
  19,000,000 Bitcoin that have already been mined.
• 29:06
  A lot of it is already locked up for what I think is at least the
• 29:09
  medium term or the long term. So this is where Bitcoin gets
• 29:13
  even more scarce. And I think, again, what's
• 29:16
  Michael's end game here? And his end game is to buy as
• 29:19
  much Bitcoin as possible. What happens if he alone gets to
• 29:22
  1,000,000 coins and he doesn't want to sell it for, what, 100
• 29:26
  years like he says? What happens if just about at a
• 29:29
  couple of other billionaires or a couple of other public
• 29:32
  companies start saying, yeah, I actually wouldn't mind holding
• 29:35
  more of this Bitcoin stuff than Michael Saylor of the.
• 29:37
  I think that's when the math gets interesting.
• 29:41
  That is where I think things start getting crazy, and that is
• 29:45
  where I think not even the most bullish of Bitcoiners have truly
• 29:49
  appreciated just how scarce Bitcoin.
• 29:52
  Is, yeah, 100%. I, I couldn't agree more.
• 29:54
  And what's very interesting though, is if if you look at the
• 29:57
  new demographic, obviously in the last couple of months, we,
• 30:01
  we have finally fulfilled the meme that institutions are
• 30:03
  coming. You know, Bitcoiners have been
• 30:04
  like Paul Revere for a long time.
• 30:06
  The institutions are coming like they're they're coming, bro.
• 30:08
  They're on the sidelines. They're going to pump our bags
• 30:11
  now we know they're here. And furthermore, we know that
• 30:14
  Wall Street has a whole new appetite for Bitcoin, or at
• 30:16
  least it's opening up. And we got to remember Wall
• 30:19
  Street traders, you know, you think Bitcoin traders are
• 30:21
  degenerates. Wall Street traders are way
• 30:23
  bigger degenerates. They literally move all the
• 30:25
  capital markets. And so you got to remember
• 30:28
  they're not afraid of volatility.
• 30:29
  They love volatility. As Sailor said, you know,
• 30:31
  volatility is life, volatility is profits.
• 30:34
  That's where you make your wealth is by taking the risk and
• 30:37
  looking at volatility as a sign of a healthy market.
• 30:40
  And that's where you make your money.
• 30:41
  That's where you get your edge from.
• 30:43
  So I don't think volatility is going to scare away Wall Street
• 30:46
  or these institutions Like it does say, you know, the retail
• 30:50
  investor or you know, maybe the people that are going to be the
• 30:53
  most afraid of this are the pension funds and stuff.
• 30:55
  Because obviously the more conservative investors or the
• 30:58
  most more conservative capital allocators, they obviously do
• 31:02
  not want to put their wealth in something that is very volatile
• 31:05
  and speculative. They just kind of want a gradual
• 31:08
  steady climb upwards. But the institution are here now
• 31:12
  and Wall Street is not afraid of volatility.
• 31:14
  So I, I have been leaning lately and I really don't have anything
• 31:18
  to back it up because I'm just reading the news and I'm just
• 31:21
  following what's going on. It does feel like 80%
• 31:24
  corrections are off the table. I'm, I'm kind of going towards
• 31:28
  more like a wait, which way, which way?
• 31:29
  This way I'm more like stepwise function where, you know, it's
• 31:32
  sideways and it goes up and then it goes sideways.
• 31:35
  That's kind of the, the new structure that I think I'm, I'm
• 31:38
  like just intuitively feeling right now.
• 31:42
  And I, you know, this is just one man's opinion here.
• 31:45
  This is kind of what I'm feeling might play out.
• 31:47
  But it does seem with all the influx of capital going into
• 31:50
  Bitcoin, even though it's Bitcoin ETFs or micro strategy
• 31:54
  as standard charter was saying, as Jeff Kendrick was saying, and
• 31:56
  you know, hey, I'm in my mid 30s.
• 31:58
  I'm, I'm not a, you know, trad fight analyst here.
• 32:01
  I don't have experience long term on what's going on.
• 32:04
  I learned through the traditional financial system in
• 32:07
  the lens or through the lens of Bitcoin, it does seem like the
• 32:10
  new capital flowing into Bitcoin is holding Bitcoin long term.
• 32:14
  And if that's the case, I think we're going to see less, less,
• 32:18
  you know, huge, long prolonged bear markets and more just kind
• 32:23
  of chop solidation and then just keep moving upwards.
• 32:26
  So it is very interesting to see that standard charter out here,
• 32:30
  Jeff Kendrick, their analysts and and one caveat I read in
• 32:33
  that article is they don't even hold Bitcoin.
• 32:35
  They're just looking at Bitcoin objectively, and they're like,
• 32:38
  yeah, this is going to go up and sorry, my 120 K prediction by Q2
• 32:44
  was probably bearish. And yeah, maybe 500 K by 2029.
• 32:49
  Like if the conservative people, the objective people that aren't
• 32:53
  obviously confirming their own bias like we do, are saying,
• 32:57
  yeah, this thing is going to RIP.
• 33:00
  I think it's safe to say that things are fundamentally
• 33:03
  changed. Things are different.
• 33:05
  And I know it's Bitcoiners love models and and we need maps to
• 33:09
  the road so that we can kind of understand what's going on.
• 33:11
  I think, Dorothy, we are no longer in Kansas anymore and
• 33:14
  things are going to get very, very interesting moving towards
• 33:18
  the end of this year and of course next year.
• 33:20
  And all the interest around Bitcoin it, it's starting to
• 33:23
  make me make me think like I, and I really don't like the
• 33:27
  meme, like there's not enough Bitcoin to go around, but
• 33:28
  there's not that much Bitcoin for all of these billions of
• 33:32
  dollars to be buying Bitcoin. So things are going to get
• 33:35
  crazy. I'm obviously super bullish.
• 33:37
  But Luke, before we move on, do you have any last closing
• 33:41
  thoughts to this segment? Standard Charter moving up their
• 33:44
  price predictions to 500 K by 2029.
• 33:46
  Things are getting crazy. Yeah, my final thoughts.
• 33:50
  I pulled up a couple of receipts here to show that we actually
• 33:52
  have the old standard charted predictions.
• 33:55
  Have a look at the date of this article, April 24th, 2023.
• 34:01
  When Bitcoin was unpopular, when Bitcoin was boring, when Bitcoin
• 34:05
  was under $40,000 a coin, standard charted was the one big
• 34:11
  tradfire institution putting their reputation on the line
• 34:17
  openly being really bullish on Bitcoin.
• 34:19
  Again, this is April 2023 on a chart, the price was under
• 34:25
  $30,000 a coin and they said by the end of 2020, $400,000
• 34:32
  Bitcoin is coming. So I think they absolutely
• 34:35
  nailed that prediction on the head.
• 34:37
  Now, again, we are not about appeals to authority here on the
• 34:41
  channel. Again, nobody knows where the
• 34:43
  price of Bitcoin is going. But what I will say is I find it
• 34:46
  pretty interesting and I think it's a little bit more
• 34:48
  meaningful that now Standard Chartered said, yeah, you know
• 34:51
  what, we were bearish. We actually think 500K by 2028's
• 34:56
  where Bitcoin's going to go. So again, I think there's a
• 34:59
  little bit of signal there, guys.
• 35:00
  I think there's a little bit more to this prediction from
• 35:04
  Standard Charted than actually meets the eye, and I think the
• 35:08
  bank is getting into Bitcoin. That is the signal we need to
• 35:12
  take from this little segment. I know Optia and I are going to
• 35:15
  talk about a few of the other banks adopting Bitcoin a little
• 35:17
  bit later on in the show, but for now, that's all the
• 35:20
  bullishness I've got on Standard Charted.
• 35:22
  All right, let's go guys. We got a jam packed show.
• 35:24
  We got a clip coming out of the SEC.
• 35:27
  Apparently they are looking at the playing field and it's
• 35:31
  seemingly going to be different than Gary Ganter there.
• 35:33
  And then we got some interesting stuff coming out of, you know,
• 35:36
  the Senate or Congress about the stable coin bill.
• 35:39
  I'll unpack it from both perspectives.
• 35:41
  But before we go on, Nico is paying ourselves $5 and saying
• 35:46
  Luke's haircut is 100 and Ron P also sent $5 earlier.
• 35:51
  I can't pull that one out, but thank you guys.
• 35:52
  Again, before I move on guys, I want to tell you guys to smash
• 35:55
  the like button, hit the subscribe button and of course
• 35:59
  comment our. Are we too bullish on this show?
• 36:01
  Are we smoking the opium on simply Bitcoin or are we giving
• 36:05
  you guys conservative numbers? It's starting to feel
• 36:08
  conservative. Anyways, before we move on, I
• 36:10
  want to give a shout out to our boys over at Bitcoin.
• 36:13
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• 36:17
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• 36:35
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• 36:47
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• 36:59
  and sign up to bitcoinwell.com. On that note guys, we got a jam
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• 38:39
  All right guys, we are over here on Clark Moody's dashboard
• 38:43
  looking at the Bitcoin time chain numbers.
• 38:45
  Currently the Bitcoin price is 100 and $6080.
• 38:49
  The sats per dollar, AKA how much Bitcoin you can buy for a
• 38:52
  single dollar, AKA how much the dollar is worth in Bitcoin, is
• 38:55
  currently at 943 sats per dollar.
• 38:57
  Though actually side bit guys, sats versus bits is back on the
• 39:02
  table. This is how you know Bitcoiners
• 39:04
  are getting bored when we start arguing about sats versus bits.
• 39:06
  It's one of my favorite just very stupid arguments we get
• 39:10
  into. Every couple of months it's back
• 39:12
  on the table. So you know, people are starting
• 39:14
  to feel bullish when we're arguing about dumb stuff.
• 39:16
  All right, so block high is currently at 897,585 and the
• 39:21
  current Bitcoin market cap. This is a new all time high
• 39:25
  guys. In terms of market cap in
• 39:27
  dollars we are at $2.11 trillion, a new all time high in
• 39:32
  Bitcoin market cap. Think it's signs of the times
• 39:35
  guys. Bitcoin is going up.
• 39:36
  The Bitcoin versus gold market cap is currently at 9.23%
• 39:39
  percent, not even 10% of gold's market cap, which is of course
• 39:43
  $22 trillion guys, it's, it's going up forever.
• 39:46
  Anyways, the total money supply is currently at 19,867,235.22
• 39:51
  Bitcoin, which means the total percentage of Bitcoin ever to be
• 39:54
  issued is 94.6%. The realized monetary inflation
• 39:58
  is .84% and look at that guys, the decline from all time. 2.9%
• 40:06
  we are running boys. This is this is starting to get
• 40:09
  exciting again. Once we break all time high, I
• 40:11
  think things are going to get crazy.
• 40:14
  All right. Anyways, as I mentioned earlier,
• 40:17
  we are seeing a lot of favorable, favorable things come
• 40:21
  out of the the Trump administration or rather the US
• 40:23
  federal government around Bitcoin.
• 40:25
  This is kind of the trend of today's show.
• 40:28
  We talked about in the beginning standard charter essentially
• 40:31
  saying, hey, we are going to have to move up our price
• 40:33
  prediction because of institutional adoption, nation
• 40:36
  state adoption and of course regulatory clarity or round
• 40:39
  Bitcoin. So let's play this clip, we'll
• 40:42
  chat about it, and then we will move on.
• 40:45
  I want to say that it is a new day at the SEC.
• 40:47
  I'm determined that we return to our core mission that Congress
• 40:50
  set for us more than 90 years ago.
• 40:53
  The SE CS3 part mission is the chairman, as stated earlier was
• 40:57
  enunciated by Congress in the Exchange Act and that's investor
• 41:01
  protection, which is vital to our mission, holding accountable
• 41:04
  those who lie, cheat and steal. Capital formation is also at the
• 41:09
  root of what we do, fostering a direct economical route for
• 41:13
  investors, capital to find its way to entrepreneurs and
• 41:16
  industry to create products and services.
• 41:20
  And the third core part of our mission is maintaining fair,
• 41:22
  orderly and efficient markets. Congress calls on the Commission
• 41:26
  to ensure that our regulations balance costs and benefits, that
• 41:31
  they do not become too burdensome by adding needless
• 41:33
  friction to the marketplace, thereby undermining the capital
• 41:37
  formation that yields so much benefit.
• 41:40
  My time in public service and in the private sector has allowed
• 41:43
  me to see first hand how regulations affect markets and
• 41:47
  investors. They can stoke innovation,
• 41:50
  facilitate investment goals, and create opportunities or burdens
• 41:54
  on businesses ability to compete and to serve their customers.
• 41:59
  How we implement regulations at the SEC is crucial.
• 42:02
  It's one thing to write a regulation, quite another for it
• 42:06
  to achieve its intended goal. Regulation should be smart,
• 42:10
  effective and appropriately tailored within the confines of
• 42:14
  our statutory authority. A key priority of my
• 42:17
  chairmanship will be to develop a rational regulatory framework
• 42:21
  for crypto asset markets that establishes clear rules of the
• 42:26
  road for the issuance, custody and trading of crypto assets,
• 42:31
  while continuing to discourage bad actors from violating the
• 42:35
  law. Clear rules of the road are
• 42:37
  necessary for investor protection against fraud.
• 42:41
  Policy making will be done through notice and comment
• 42:43
  rulemaking, not through regulation by enforcement.
• 42:46
  The Commission will utilize its existing authorities to set fit
• 42:50
  for purpose standards for market participants.
• 42:53
  The Commission's enforcement approach will return to
• 42:56
  Congress's original intent, which is to police violations of
• 43:01
  these established obligations, particularly as they relate to
• 43:05
  fraud and manipulation. The SEC is returning the
• 43:09
  rulemaking to is returning rulemaking to regular order.
• 43:13
  Our comment periods will not be artificially short, and the
• 43:16
  public will have ample time to provide feedback.
• 43:20
  The SEC will also be sure to take into consideration how
• 43:23
  rules overlap and how regulatory burdens build in keeping with
• 43:28
  our obligation. OK, guys, so the big take away,
• 43:34
  obviously this was a testimonial at Congress.
• 43:38
  What we're seeing here is that the SEC is obviously changing on
• 43:44
  a dime. As we know with Gary Genser.
• 43:46
  A lot of us big corners were kind of hopeful about Gary
• 43:49
  Genser being in his position, head of the SEC, but it wasn't
• 43:53
  that favorable. And and a lot of people say, you
• 43:54
  know, he launched a Bitcoin ETF. Yeah, but they probably could
• 43:57
  have done it sooner. Maybe it was a good thing.
• 43:59
  You know, I've been trolling and saying Gary Genser was a maxi.
• 44:02
  Anyways, what we're seeing is that they are fundamentally
• 44:05
  changing their tune around Bitcoin.
• 44:07
  Gary Ginzer was very big on regulation by enforcement.
• 44:10
  Now we're seeing that the new SEC head is basically saying
• 44:13
  that's, you know, that was a mistake.
• 44:16
  We're going to make very clear rules of the road quote.
• 44:19
  They've been saying that meme for a while and it's starting to
• 44:22
  sound like we are going to see a more laissez faire hands off
• 44:26
  approach to Bitcoin. And I this is starting to make
• 44:29
  me a little bullish. Obviously, I'm not the biggest
• 44:31
  fan of the SEC in general, but it as long as they don't fight
• 44:34
  Bitcoin, as long as they don't fight Bitcoin businesses and
• 44:36
  scare entrepreneurs and businesses out of the USI think
• 44:40
  we are are, you know, confirming what we've heard and been
• 44:42
  talking about speculating on the show for a while.
• 44:45
  We are going to see a very favorable regulatory environment
• 44:49
  around Bitcoin. And I'm I'm kind of here for it.
• 44:53
  Like as long as they get out of our way, I think Bitcoiners and
• 44:56
  Bitcoin will win. Just stop fighting us.
• 44:59
  Let Bitcoin do its thing. And it seems like that is the
• 45:01
  trend we are we're headed towards.
• 45:02
  So I am backing this statement here.
• 45:05
  It seems like Bitcoin and quote UN quote, crypto are one of the
• 45:08
  big things on their list, top of the list here because we do have
• 45:11
  another news story on this. But this is a fundamental shift
• 45:15
  away from what we saw from Gary Ganzer heading the SEC Very
• 45:19
  exciting, very bullish stuff here.
• 45:21
  So Luke, what's your thoughts on this?
• 45:22
  I know you're not an American here, but what are the
• 45:25
  implications of this? Yeah, I mean, it's I think it's
• 45:29
  just huge to actually have the wind at our backs.
• 45:33
  We finally have the sails pointed in the right direction,
• 45:36
  so to say. Said as someone who has no clue
• 45:39
  about what a boat is. But what I think is interesting
• 45:42
  is Michael Saylor said, look, $5,000,000 Bitcoin for us to get
• 45:46
  there, we just need three things.
• 45:48
  It's the ETFs, fair value accounting, so favorable
• 45:52
  regulations on our side. This was one of the biggest
• 45:55
  things that Sailor said we needed for $5,000,000 Bitcoin
• 46:00
  and the banks to embrace Bitcoin.
• 46:03
  So I think this most recent clip from the SEC just confirms,
• 46:05
  look, we now have the catalysts in place to trigger $5,000,000
• 46:11
  Bitcoin. Now we're just waiting for the
• 46:13
  price to catch up to bitcoin's fair value.
• 46:15
  And again, that's the asymmetry. We're just waiting for the world
• 46:19
  to realize $100,000 a coin is incredibly cheap and it's
• 46:23
  incredibly early. God, I love saying Bitcoin is
• 46:27
  early. That's one of my favorite
• 46:28
  things. I was like, no, we're not, we're
• 46:29
  so late. Nico even said that yesterday.
• 46:31
  We're so late. It's at 100K.
• 46:32
  I'm like bro, we are early. We're totally early.
• 46:35
  Anyways, let's go into some more regulations, or rather some
• 46:39
  more, I, I don't know, tentatively positive news around
• 46:43
  Bitcoin. I, I, you guys know my takes on
• 46:46
  stablecoin so well, let's let's just get into it because I, I
• 46:49
  have mixed feelings on this. I want to give a shout out to
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  5% off anything on the store. All right, guys, so I have a lot
• 49:01
  to unpack here, so I got to jump straight right into it.
• 49:03
  So Eleanor Terrett, she's been doing really good journalism on
• 49:06
  Twitter, has some scoops and breaking news on stuff.
• 49:09
  But here is like IA lot of people are saying the big news
• 49:12
  of yesterday. So Eleanor goes just in motion
• 49:15
  to invoke closure on the motion to proceed to the consideration
• 49:18
  of the genius act has passed. Of course, it's kind of been
• 49:22
  dubbed, you know, the stable coin bill 15 plus Democrats flip
• 49:26
  their votes from no to yes, which I think might be the most
• 49:29
  interesting aspect of this. It's it was a bipartisan move
• 49:32
  here and it passed. So going through a little bit,
• 49:36
  you know, I got a headline here from CNN Senate advances, first
• 49:39
  of its kind, cryptocurrency legislation after Democrats
• 49:42
  initially blocked it amid Trump crypto deals.
• 49:45
  Of course, you know, the anti Trump stuff.
• 49:47
  It's just kind of part of the take.
• 49:49
  Second one from NBC News, which I think really highlights what's
• 49:52
  going on. Senate advance is a major crypto
• 49:54
  regulation bill on a bipartisan vote.
• 49:58
  And this is probably not only is it first of its kind crypto
• 50:01
  regulations being passed, which we'll chat about a little bit,
• 50:04
  but it was bipartisan. It was no longer just the
• 50:06
  Republicans being pro Bitcoin or pro stable coins.
• 50:09
  We got some Democrats finally on board, which is awesome.
• 50:12
  All right, now going into this a little bit like what is the
• 50:16
  genius act? What does it do?
• 50:17
  So I got a Fact Check fact sheet from Senate dot Gov and we go
• 50:22
  the genius act protects consumers and just kind of
• 50:25
  diving in. It says as it as it at its core,
• 50:27
  the genius Act is a consumer protection bill.
• 50:30
  Payment stable coins are a product already offered in the
• 50:33
  US with little regulatory oversight.
• 50:35
  This legislation establishes a first of its kind federal
• 50:38
  framework to regulate payment stable coins that include, among
• 50:41
  other things, robust reserve requirements to ensure payment
• 50:44
  stable coins are not D pegged and transparency into the
• 50:47
  reserve backing payment stable coins.
• 50:50
  The GENIUS Act establishes federal safeguards that protect
• 50:52
  stable coin holders and enhance consumer confidence in the
• 50:55
  permitted payment stable coin market, including and requiring
• 50:59
  100% reserve backing with U.S. dollars and short term
• 51:03
  Treasuries or similar liquid assets as determined by the
• 51:06
  primary regulator, monthly public disclosure of reserve
• 51:09
  composition and annual audited financial statements.
• 51:12
  For issuers with more than $50 billion in market
• 51:15
  capitalization, the GENIUS Act establishes strict marketing
• 51:18
  standards for payment stable coins.
• 51:20
  Essentially you prohibits any representation that the payment
• 51:23
  is stablecoin are backed by the full faith and credit of the US
• 51:26
  government by the US government are covered by FDIC insurance,
• 51:29
  making it unlawful to mislead consumers about government
• 51:33
  backing or the insurance status of payment stablecoins and
• 51:36
  insurers that they cannot be marketed in the way that a
• 51:38
  reasonable person would perceive the stablecoin to be legal,
• 51:40
  tendered, issued by the US or guaranteed or approved by the US
• 51:44
  government. And it makes it illegal to
• 51:45
  market a digital asset as a payment stablecoin unless it
• 51:48
  follows these guidelines. Now how this is, you know, I
• 51:53
  don't know. You know, stable coins are not
• 51:55
  my thing. But let's just get some take
• 51:57
  from some politicians view on this and then some bitcoiner
• 52:01
  takes on this and then we will chat about South Senator Lummits
• 52:04
  goes the genius Act is pro innovation, pro consumer, pro
• 52:08
  America. We need the genius act.
• 52:10
  Obviously it passed behind says the bipartisan closure vote is a
• 52:14
  major step toward securing the future of American finance.
• 52:18
  The GENIUS Act will strengthen dollar dominance, upgrade our
• 52:21
  payment rails, and position the United States to lead the globe
• 52:24
  in digital asset innovation. It's time to cement America's
• 52:27
  leadership and pass this historic legislation.
• 52:30
  And then we got Senator Bill Haggerty.
• 52:33
  He goes tonight, the Senate move forward on the GENIUS Act.
• 52:36
  This groundbreaking bipartisan legislation will bring America's
• 52:39
  payment system into the 21st century.
• 52:41
  The GENIUS Act skyrockets the United States with the digital
• 52:43
  payment framework with the fastest rails possible.
• 52:46
  It will ensure U.S. dollar dominance.
• 52:48
  Customers will be protected, the demand for U.S.
• 52:50
  Treasuries will balloon to the tune of more than $1 trillion
• 52:54
  and innovation in the digital asset space will thrive in the
• 52:56
  United States going forward. I look forward to making history
• 52:59
  with my colleagues this week and follows it up with a clip
• 53:02
  basically saying stablecoin issues will be the largest
• 53:05
  holders of U.S. Treasuries in the world.
• 53:08
  And this probably where you know my my Spidey census pull up.
• 53:13
  But anyways, Nico tweeted breaking genius bill passes
• 53:15
  through the closure vote with 66 votes.
• 53:17
  Someone asked Grok, is this good for Bitcoin?
• 53:20
  And and you know, tentatively, I guess it's not bad for Bitcoin,
• 53:23
  but I'm it's I don't really care about stablecoins.
• 53:26
  You, you guys know my view, but I guess it may be a good thing.
• 53:28
  So Grock responds and goes the genius act likely the genius
• 53:31
  bill regulates stablecoins and not Bitcoin directly.
• 53:34
  It passed a boat. Stablecoins using Bitcoin
• 53:37
  trading gain stability from clear rules, boosting market
• 53:40
  confidence and indirectly benefiting Bitcoin.
• 53:43
  So I think This is why a lot of people are saying that this
• 53:46
  might be a good thing. But I saw an interesting comment
• 53:49
  here from Simon Dixon and he responds to Bill Hagger and he
• 53:53
  goes there. It is US stable coin bills
• 53:56
  coming, but the yield won't be passed on to the consumer to buy
• 53:58
  Bitcoin to protect themselves. It will be retained by the
• 54:01
  issuer so they can buy Bitcoin with U.S. debt.
• 54:04
  It's a debt based Ponzi scheme rollover rather than monetary
• 54:07
  reform. And and Kaiser says something
• 54:11
  very similar echoing it. So in response to Bill Haggerty
• 54:14
  goes, Nope, U.S. dollar stable coins will hasten the demise of
• 54:17
  the dollar as private companies compete with the Fed to flood
• 54:20
  the economy with trillions more ersatz Fiat nonsense conjured
• 54:24
  from thin air. It's a distraction from the true
• 54:27
  task at hand, accumulating Bitcoin in a strategic reserve,
• 54:32
  which is more of my take, you know, mentioning what Bo Hines
• 54:36
  said and Bill Haggerty said, you know, payment or stable coins
• 54:41
  will ensure the dollar dominance.
• 54:44
  And This is why the politicians, I think are moving forward.
• 54:47
  This is not what I'm in Bitcoin, but the grok take is kind of
• 54:50
  where my head is at. Like, you know, first they're
• 54:53
  going to pass some stable coin regulation through so that they
• 54:56
  can maintain dollar dominance. But I think with that Bitcoin
• 55:00
  will essentially now is is almost going to be codified if
• 55:03
  this gets pushed in that they're not going to be able to touch
• 55:05
  Bitcoin. So on that front, I am kind of
• 55:07
  good. And the last thing I want to
• 55:09
  mention is what Frank Corvo said here and he goes in the depth
• 55:12
  critique of the current iteration of the Genius Act.
• 55:14
  They continue to associate crypto mixers with illicit
• 55:16
  finance, even though a memo published by Todd Blanch in
• 55:19
  April stated that those who abuse this tech, not the tech
• 55:22
  itself, should be of concern to the government.
• 55:24
  And the last thing actually, I, I, let me, I have to find it.
• 55:28
  The last thing that makes me feel really good about this
• 55:31
  Genius Act being, you know, passed or passed through cloture
• 55:35
  is Elizabeth Warren's response to this.
• 55:37
  She was not happy about this, which means on, you know, a
• 55:40
  very, very simple heuristic. If Elizabeth Warren is not happy
• 55:43
  about this, then I am happy about this.
• 55:46
  So, you know, let me pull that up on Twitter.
• 55:49
  And Luke, give me your thoughts while I pull up this tweet.
• 55:53
  Yes. So my quick thoughts here is
• 55:56
  that stable coins backed by U.S. Treasuries is, again, this is a
• 56:01
  controversial take, but I think it's actually going to help
• 56:03
  prolong the US dollar's global reserve currency much longer
• 56:07
  than most people think. Opti even said it a second ago.
• 56:10
  There is a scenario where these U.S. dollar stable coins could
• 56:14
  be the biggest holder of U.S. Treasuries around the world.
• 56:16
  And this is happening at a time when the world is dumping
• 56:20
  treasuries. This is happening at a time when
• 56:23
  and all of these countries are trying to, they're all trying to
• 56:25
  de dollarize for the first time in a long time.
• 56:28
  That news article dropped in the Wall Street Journal a couple of
• 56:31
  years ago. Only 80% of global trade is now,
• 56:35
  sorry, 80% of global oil sales is being settled in U.S.
• 56:38
  dollars. Again, it doesn't sound like a
• 56:40
  big change from 100 to 80%, but it's the rate of change that's
• 56:44
  really interesting. The world is de dollarizing.
• 56:46
  The world is saying, hey, I want gold in my reserves for my
• 56:50
  central bank. And slowly but surely, countries
• 56:52
  are not only not accumulating U.S. dollars, they're dumping
• 56:56
  them outright like Japan and China.
• 56:59
  So I think now that we have a new buyer of U.S.
• 57:03
  Treasuries, who is now what, the 15th largest holder of
• 57:07
  treasuries in the entire planet? Tether alone, I think the US
• 57:12
  government is incentivized to let these stable coins do what
• 57:15
  they do. And I think by proxy this is
• 57:18
  great for Bitcoin because the more Bitcoin adoption we have
• 57:20
  around the world, the more demand for U.S. dollar stable
• 57:23
  coins we have around the world. And look who is going to get
• 57:26
  even more mad as we see this adopting the stable coins around
• 57:29
  the world. OBTI, what are we looking at?
• 57:32
  Yeah, this might be the biggest signal here is this is Elizabeth
• 57:35
  Warren after they passed this genius act.
• 57:39
  As you can tell, she does not look very happy about it.
• 57:42
  So I think this is AW here for, for us Bitcoiners.
• 57:47
  But yeah, no, Luke, you, you hit the nail on the head.
• 57:50
  I mean, Bill Haggerty said it himself.
• 57:51
  And, and we all know kind of how the, the best structure of
• 57:55
  stable coins work is they're buying U.S.
• 57:57
  Treasuries. And you know, I'm not here to
• 57:59
  continue the Fiat games to, to, to continue.
• 58:03
  And it's going to be codified that they literally need to buy
• 58:06
  cash or U.S. Treasuries to back the peg here.
• 58:09
  So I really like Simon Dixon's take on this.
• 58:12
  It's like, look, you get lulled to sleep by thinking that your
• 58:16
  currency is stable, but you don't get any of the yield in
• 58:20
  regards to the treasuries here. And for a lot of people, I
• 58:23
  understand the, the, you know, the take that people in South
• 58:27
  America, they need a stable currency.
• 58:29
  So first they'll go to stable coins and then eventually
• 58:31
  they'll go to Bitcoin. But to me it just seems like why
• 58:36
  put unnecessary steps there? Just buy Bitcoin.
• 58:39
  You'll be better off. You will get the games you will
• 58:42
  get, you know, quote UN quote the yield here.
• 58:45
  So I am, I'm obviously conflicted here because I'm not
• 58:49
  here for U.S. dollar dominance. I, I'm also not here to see the
• 58:52
  US decline. I am an American.
• 58:54
  So I, I do have my bias here. But as Kaiser was saying, I want
• 58:58
  to see if, if nation states are going to get into the quote
• 59:01
  digital asset space, then I think the best move is to
• 59:05
  obviously adopt Bitcoin like we've seen El Salvador do, like
• 59:08
  we've seen Bhutan does. So look, I'm, I don't know if
• 59:13
  this is necessarily a good thing.
• 59:15
  A lot of people are are championing this as a win.
• 59:17
  I think if you look at it in terms of, hey, if they're
• 59:21
  passing stablecoin legislation through the House or the Senate,
• 59:25
  then that's most likely means they're going to be a little
• 59:27
  hands off on Bitcoin. So on that note, I think we'll,
• 59:31
  we'll just kind of have to hold our, our breath on this one and,
• 59:34
  and realize and, or rather hope that they don't just over
• 59:37
  regulate things and really neuter the industry.
• 59:39
  So I do have some concerns here, but it seems like the, you know,
• 59:44
  we have bipartisan push for stable coins right now.
• 59:47
  And of course, in the guise of U.S. dollar dominance.
• 59:50
  And I think though the, the meme of Bitcoin as a Trojan horse for
• 59:54
  freedom, I think we're getting our heads through the door.
• 59:57
  So this probably might be bullish.
• 59:59
  I'm not as bullish as everyone else on it because you guys
• 1:00:02
  know, I'm, I'm not the biggest stablecoin fan.
• 1:00:03
  I'm just like, be a bitcoiner, like skip that step and just buy
• 1:00:06
  Bitcoin. And to me that's, that's really
• 1:00:10
  like what people should be doing.
• 1:00:11
  But I get it. You know, the, the US government
• 1:00:14
  is not going to be incentivized to push something to destroy
• 1:00:17
  their own power, hence why they want U.S. dollar dominance.
• 1:00:19
  So this might be, you know, unnecessary evil.
• 1:00:23
  Maybe I'm I'm not really sure on what what I think about it, but
• 1:00:28
  hey. They're pushing through stable
• 1:00:30
  coin regulations. I think we are at the very least
• 1:00:32
  turning a new leaf here And we're seeing that then the US
• 1:00:36
  government is no longer afraid of digital asset.
• 1:00:38
  They're they're doing their best to embrace digital assets and of
• 1:00:42
  course by that I mean Bitcoin. So tentatively optimistic about
• 1:00:46
  this, but I don't really like stable coins.
• 1:00:48
  So you know, I it's hard for me to just say it's a pure W, but
• 1:00:52
  the the real win is just Elizabeth Warren's response to
• 1:00:56
  this. So on that I'm going to be
• 1:00:58
  stupidly bullish here. If she's mad, this is probably a
• 1:01:01
  good thing. This is my 45 IQ take on it.
• 1:01:05
  Yeah, I, I, my 45 IQ take on this Opti is we got more than
• 1:01:09
  just our heads through the door. I think we are bursting through
• 1:01:13
  the door. I think, I think Bitcoin is
• 1:01:16
  really burst onto the mainstream consciousness.
• 1:01:19
  And I think right now every politician, every government,
• 1:01:22
  every public corporation is literally being forced to
• 1:01:24
  investigate Bitcoin. How big is that?
• 1:01:27
  Have a think about this for a minute.
• 1:01:28
  Microsoft shareholders, Amazon shareholders, Dell shareholders,
• 1:01:32
  they're all writing letters to the treasury and for the heads
• 1:01:35
  at on those boards saying you have to investigate Bitcoin as a
• 1:01:39
  strategic treasury asset. You can't just let the Giga chat
• 1:01:43
  go from having a billion dollar company in 2020 like micro
• 1:01:47
  strategy was to just buy Bitcoin and turn himself into $100
• 1:01:51
  billion giant. OK, this is now undeniable.
• 1:01:55
  This is now something that cannot be ignored because as
• 1:01:59
  Ofti said, our head is certainly through the door, that is for
• 1:02:02
  sure. And I think Bitcoin is just like
• 1:02:04
  we've touched on earlier in the numbers section, we're at $2.1
• 1:02:08
  trillion asset now. We've gone from zero to 2.1
• 1:02:12
  trillion in 16 years. We've no marketing team, no
• 1:02:16
  significant lobbying for 12 years.
• 1:02:18
  I don't think anyone was lobbying for Bitcoin pre 2020.
• 1:02:21
  We have seen a little bit of this post 2020, but again,
• 1:02:24
  Bitcoin's just doing what it's doing.
• 1:02:26
  It's unsensible, doesn't have a marketing team, it's not owned
• 1:02:31
  by anyone. It can't be changed by anyone.
• 1:02:34
  The rich have tried to change it in 2017.
• 1:02:36
  Who knows, maybe some of the rich are trying to change it
• 1:02:39
  again in 2025. That could be a rabbit hole for
• 1:02:41
  another day. But Bitcoin is immutable money.
• 1:02:43
  That's all it is. It's immutable code that cannot
• 1:02:46
  be changed. Bitcoin is the only stable thing
• 1:02:49
  in a volatile world and so far we've seen hundreds of millions
• 1:02:53
  of people say that they value a thing that can't be changed in
• 1:02:56
  an ever changing world. It's worth $2.1 trillion today
• 1:02:59
  and I think in another 16 years time I think it's going to be
• 1:03:03
  adding a whole lot more than $2.1 trillion of value to its
• 1:03:06
  market cap. But that's just my take.
• 1:03:09
  Yeah, you're just, you're just too bullish here, Luke.
• 1:03:11
  No, no, no, conservatively speaking, I think you're right.
• 1:03:15
  All right, guys, I do want to do a follow up on yesterday's bond
• 1:03:19
  market action and I got a great thread by Mark Moth that
• 1:03:22
  explains it very simply for you guys.
• 1:03:24
  So let's get into that because I think this might be the Canary
• 1:03:28
  in the coal mine. This might be the biggest thing
• 1:03:30
  going on. And, you know, I don't want to
• 1:03:31
  be a doomer here, but a lot of people tradify analysts are
• 1:03:35
  saying this might be the the signal that the bond market is
• 1:03:40
  going to blow up. And This is why we're bitcoiners
• 1:03:42
  in the first places. We want our money outside of the
• 1:03:45
  system because it's all essentially, you know, just
• 1:03:49
  waiting to blow up. And it seems like we might have
• 1:03:52
  gotten there yesterday and over the weekend in terms of the
• 1:03:55
  Japanese bond market. So we'll explain all this a
• 1:03:58
  little bit right now in the culture.
• 1:04:01
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  today. All right, guys, so we covered
• 1:06:04
  this on the beginning of yesterday's show, but we have
• 1:06:07
  some more sauce in here for you guys.
• 1:06:09
  So we have Kobayashi letter here this morning tweeting
• 1:06:14
  essentially what is going on in the Japanese bond markets.
• 1:06:18
  And as you can see it is still ripping upwards.
• 1:06:21
  Guys, this is not a good sign for the traditional financial
• 1:06:24
  system and and here is a good summary of what is going on.
• 1:06:28
  So Japan's bond market is imploding.
• 1:06:30
  Japan's 30 year government bond yield has officially surged to
• 1:06:33
  its highest level in history. I repeat its highest level in
• 1:06:36
  history at 3.15%. For decades Japan was known for
• 1:06:41
  low long term interest rates. Now they are dealing with high
• 1:06:44
  inflation, shifting policy outlook and a whopping 260% debt
• 1:06:49
  to GDP ratio. On top of this, Japan hold $1.1
• 1:06:53
  trillion worth of U.S. debt, making it the largest foreign
• 1:06:58
  holder of U.S. debt. And yesterday, Japan Prime
• 1:07:01
  Minister Ishiba called the situation worse than Greece.
• 1:07:05
  What will Japan do here? Again, I know we've been and
• 1:07:10
  actually let me just pull this one up first.
• 1:07:12
  I was going to wait for this, but 00 Hedge kind of hit the
• 1:07:15
  nail on the head. Everyone was accessing so much
• 1:07:17
  over U.S. Treasuries they forgot the real
• 1:07:20
  bond shit show is in Japan where the wheels are about to fall off
• 1:07:23
  and the countdown to yield control curve is back on.
• 1:07:27
  A Japan 20 year bond sale draws weakest demand ratio since 2012.
• 1:07:32
  And again, moving back over here, these things are
• 1:07:36
  completely tied here. As you see in this tweet, Japan
• 1:07:40
  hold $1.1 trillion worth of U.S. debt and we covered yesterday
• 1:07:46
  U.S. government debt, you know, bonds, they're not in high
• 1:07:49
  demand right now that our interest rates are rising.
• 1:07:52
  Japan's interest rates are basically going parabolic.
• 1:07:55
  Essentially no one wants government debt right now.
• 1:07:57
  We saw Jamie Dimon basically say yesterday and Ray Dalio, I
• 1:08:01
  wouldn't be in credit markets. You know, there's a lot of
• 1:08:03
  concern going on in the traditional financial system.
• 1:08:06
  And of course, as a bitcoiner, this is usually why we're like,
• 1:08:10
  oh, This is why you need Bitcoin.
• 1:08:12
  And of course, everyone in traditional financial world
• 1:08:14
  looks at us like we're crazy because we're just as young
• 1:08:16
  kids, you know, in T-shirts and hoodies and have crazy hair and
• 1:08:20
  we say crazy things and we're, we just speak in memes.
• 1:08:23
  But big corners seem to have the best grasp of what's going on.
• 1:08:28
  As Kaiser's been saying, we are probably facing or maybe facing
• 1:08:32
  the bond apocalypse happening in real time.
• 1:08:36
  People have been waiting for this for 20 years, and now it
• 1:08:38
  seems to be upon us. It's going to be interesting to
• 1:08:41
  see what happens. This could happen quickly.
• 1:08:43
  It could they could figure out a way to sweep this under the rug.
• 1:08:46
  But from a Bitcoinage perspective, Mark Moss
• 1:08:48
  absolutely nailed it on this tweet.
• 1:08:51
  And this is really what I wanted to share with you guys today.
• 1:08:54
  So Mark Moss goes, Bitcoin is making new highs, but it's the
• 1:08:57
  other markets that are really telling the whole story.
• 1:09:00
  While both Bitcoin and gold make new all time highs.
• 1:09:02
  It's the quote old guard store of value plunging and money is
• 1:09:07
  dying. the US Treasury's 30 year continues ripping higher,
• 1:09:10
  signaling the long term value is worth less and less.
• 1:09:13
  I repeat, signaling that the long term value of the old guard
• 1:09:17
  store value is worth less and less.
• 1:09:21
  And it's not just U.S. Treasury, it's all currencies
• 1:09:23
  collapsing at the same time. Germany's E U.S. economic engine
• 1:09:27
  is dying. You can see their bond rates are
• 1:09:29
  going up. The UK, the financial center of
• 1:09:32
  old money is dying. Their bond rates are going up,
• 1:09:34
  which means again, guys, interest rates, you can kind of
• 1:09:37
  just think of it very simply that the higher the rates go,
• 1:09:40
  the more they try to incentivize and gain interest into this
• 1:09:44
  debt. So if they have to continue to
• 1:09:46
  raise rates, or rather the market continues to raise these
• 1:09:48
  bond yield rates, it means no one wants to buy government
• 1:09:52
  debt. And that is not a good thing
• 1:09:54
  when you understand how the Fiat system is built.
• 1:09:56
  It's all built on government debt.
• 1:09:59
  So Japan, Canada, Australia, it's all the same thing.
• 1:10:02
  Money as we know it is changing Fiat and the Fiat system is
• 1:10:06
  being replaced right in front of us.
• 1:10:08
  And as long as the central banks continue debasing with 99% odds
• 1:10:12
  they will, the long term trend on bonds will follow.
• 1:10:16
  Meanwhile, Bitcoin represents an entirely new asset asset class
• 1:10:20
  and a new breed of financial products for a brand new
• 1:10:22
  financial market. And for those that see this
• 1:10:24
  shift now, fortune will be set. Bitcoin is the cheat code.
• 1:10:29
  This is what we say all the time as bitcoiners.
• 1:10:32
  This is why we're bitcoiners. Remember what it said in the
• 1:10:35
  genesis block of 2009? You know, Chancellor on the
• 1:10:40
  brink of second bailout. We all know, as Larry Leopard
• 1:10:44
  has been saying, the big print is coming.
• 1:10:46
  As Lynn Alden has been saying, you know, the more respected
• 1:10:49
  voices in the Bitcoin space. Nothing stops his train.
• 1:10:53
  Well, it looks like the train is leaving the station now with
• 1:10:57
  literally no brakes on. So it's going to, I don't know,
• 1:11:02
  like it really is concerning here.
• 1:11:04
  Obviously as a bitcoiner, you're like, look, turn on the money
• 1:11:07
  printer, pump my bags. I'm going to be good.
• 1:11:10
  But it's starting to look like there is not just cracks in the
• 1:11:15
  system, but seismic, you know, crumbling of the Fiat system
• 1:11:20
  happening in real time. And again, Japan is the linchpin
• 1:11:24
  here. So if Japan implodes, this isn't
• 1:11:26
  just a oh, this is Japan's problem.
• 1:11:29
  We don't have to worry about it. No, this will literally, as the
• 1:11:33
  Japan's Prime Minister said, be worse than Greece was.
• 1:11:36
  And we all know what happened in the great financial crisis.
• 1:11:40
  It was a global phenomenon. And it's so if this is bigger
• 1:11:45
  than that, we may be upon literally the monetary reset
• 1:11:51
  that we all kind of don't want to happen.
• 1:11:53
  You know, you're seeing from the beginning of the show, you're
• 1:11:57
  seeing the US government try to kind of impose new regulations
• 1:12:01
  and and and do this like very soft landing, to use your own
• 1:12:04
  Powells phrasing here, You know, kind of slowly, monetary slowly
• 1:12:08
  reset the new monetary order. We're seeing a lot of talks
• 1:12:11
  coming out of Trump and Powell and even, you know, the bankers
• 1:12:14
  saying like, oh, no, the monetary order is resetting.
• 1:12:17
  You know, it's changing course. It might be that we are seeing
• 1:12:21
  that they don't have a choice here, that the monetary reorder
• 1:12:25
  is going to happen in real time because it has broken.
• 1:12:29
  And this is something bitcoiners have been saying for a long time
• 1:12:32
  that look, they can kick the can down the road for as long as
• 1:12:35
  they are able to. But there comes a day where it
• 1:12:38
  breaks and it looks like, and I'm again, I'm not trying to be
• 1:12:42
  a doomer here and I'm not trying to just like scare you into
• 1:12:45
  buying Bitcoin, but it looks like the bond pocalypse is a
• 1:12:49
  upon us. It looks like we are seeing this
• 1:12:52
  happen in slow motion. We are seeing the car crash
• 1:12:55
  happen right now. And I think this might be the
• 1:12:57
  biggest news going on. Obviously as a bitcoiner, you're
• 1:13:00
  like, I don't care about bonds. I don't even understand bonds,
• 1:13:03
  but you got to remember bonds are literally the backbone of
• 1:13:07
  the traditional financial system.
• 1:13:09
  And if they're blowing up like we're seeing, things might get
• 1:13:13
  absolutely crazy. Yeah, As A2 DN said, nothing
• 1:13:19
  stops this training except when it wrecks itself.
• 1:13:22
  Yeah, we might be at the point where it wrecks itself, man.
• 1:13:27
  It's just it it is kind of getting concerning.
• 1:13:30
  I'm not going to lie. One of one of the things I like
• 1:13:32
  to see and I've been kind of being hopeful about this is
• 1:13:34
  like, I want to see a slower transition into Bitcoin.
• 1:13:38
  And if the bond markets are blowing up, we might be seeing a
• 1:13:42
  suddenly moment of Bitcoin. And this is probably why we're
• 1:13:45
  seeing some of the biggest banks in the world, you know, the JP
• 1:13:48
  Morgan's of the world, the Wells, Fargos, UBS, you name it.
• 1:13:52
  They're all looking at Bitcoin very seriously because they
• 1:13:55
  understand the Fiat system better than anyone else.
• 1:13:57
  And they're like, yo, I might actually need to get on this
• 1:14:02
  Bitcoin train because we might have a freaking global nuclear
• 1:14:08
  systemic problem playing out in real time.
• 1:14:10
  So we'll keep covering this. I mean, at this point, you'll
• 1:14:13
  probably see it on Main Street like we this, I don't want to be
• 1:14:17
  like this is the end of times for Fiat, but we've been talking
• 1:14:20
  about this for a while and it might it might be here.
• 1:14:24
  Yes, everyone saying, you know, watch the big short watch margin
• 1:14:28
  call. The music has stopped and all I
• 1:14:31
  hear is silence. Guys, this, look, I don't want
• 1:14:35
  to say this is it, but from the writing on the wall, it's not
• 1:14:39
  looking good. And This is why you need to have
• 1:14:42
  Bitcoin. Like this is literally the
• 1:14:44
  reason why you need to own Bitcoin.
• 1:14:45
  So things, things are going to get hairy out there.
• 1:14:48
  I think a lot of people are asleep at the wheel right now.
• 1:14:50
  But yeah, there's, there's a, there's a fundamental problem.
• 1:14:53
  And if you're watching the bond yields right now, it is telling
• 1:14:56
  you something that you should take notice to.
• 1:14:59
  And on that point, I think the people with the real money are
• 1:15:03
  paying notice to this, hence why we're seeing this narrative
• 1:15:06
  shift around Bitcoin and people saying, hey, maybe my price
• 1:15:09
  predictions are way too conservative because everyone
• 1:15:12
  might be jamming to the exit door and Bitcoin is that exit.
• 1:15:16
  We are. This is crazy stuff.
• 1:15:18
  Yes, as Lou says, Japan just got margin called.
• 1:15:22
  And yes, we really are in an echo chamber because no one
• 1:15:26
  understands what's going on. A lot of people can point at the
• 1:15:28
  problem. Few people can see the solution.
• 1:15:30
  We still get called cult members and we're like, hey, man, we're
• 1:15:33
  just trying to get you on the safety boat here.
• 1:15:35
  Like don't kill the messenger here.
• 1:15:37
  There's a problem. You probably want some Bitcoin
• 1:15:39
  and they're like, Nah, you're in a cold.
• 1:15:42
  You're an idiot. You're like, all right, man, you
• 1:15:44
  know, I tried, I tried, but we're still trying here.
• 1:15:47
  We're still doing our best here. Hopefully some new viewers here
• 1:15:50
  are like, wow, maybe these, you know, maybe these kids actually
• 1:15:54
  understand what's going on right now because things are getting
• 1:15:58
  crazy. It is starting to get nuts it I
• 1:16:01
  I see your chart here, Luke. So I'm just saying Oh no, you're
• 1:16:04
  whymark chart. But you'll talk about that
• 1:16:05
  later. So I'm gonna just pass it on to
• 1:16:07
  Luke. Luke, what you got?
• 1:16:07
  Source pulled up. I got a few saucy pieces of
• 1:16:11
  information pulled up, but it is during those great rants that
• 1:16:15
  you just went on off the that I wish I had root access to the
• 1:16:18
  horns for you guys because that was incredible.
• 1:16:23
  There we go. Absolutely.
• 1:16:25
  I think we are seeing a bond apocalypse right now.
• 1:16:28
  I think it's huge that we literally have people in the
• 1:16:33
  Japan government. They're openly saying it's worse
• 1:16:35
  than Greece. What happened in Greece?
• 1:16:37
  The country blew up and they froze your money for three
• 1:16:41
  years. This is what happens when Fiat
• 1:16:44
  dies. But I think what people need to
• 1:16:47
  conceptualize and eternalize is that when Fiat dies, it doesn't
• 1:16:53
  do so in a predictable, easily tradable manner.
• 1:16:58
  I'm like you, Opti. I hope, I'm really hoping that I
• 1:17:01
  am wrong and I I'm hoping for a gradual slow transition, but I'm
• 1:17:08
  I think it's going to be more volatile than most people think.
• 1:17:11
  You make a great point, Opti. The entire Fiat system is
• 1:17:14
  essentially pegged to Japan. Japan is the one country that
• 1:17:20
  actually hasn't defaulted on their debt yet.
• 1:17:25
  I really love the study that Hirschman Capital did a couple
• 1:17:29
  of years ago. Massive hedge funds and they
• 1:17:32
  essentially found that hey, since the 18152 countries have
• 1:17:38
  reached government debt to GDP levels of more than 130%.
• 1:17:43
  And of those 52 countries, 51 of those countries defaulted on
• 1:17:49
  their debt within 15 years of hitting that 130% debt to GDP
• 1:17:56
  ratio. And a lot of Keynesians have
• 1:17:58
  come out and said, look, Japan's the exception.
• 1:18:01
  Japan has now proved 200 years of data wrong because Japan has
• 1:18:06
  a 270% debt to GDP ratio. We can trust that the Fiat
• 1:18:11
  system works. We can trust that we are now
• 1:18:13
  living in Modern Monetary Theory where the rules have changed.
• 1:18:18
  Ignore the past 200 years of data of governments blowing up
• 1:18:22
  when they hit 130% debt to GDP ratios.
• 1:18:25
  The Keynesians like Stephanie Kelton and Koi will tell you,
• 1:18:28
  look at Japan, aren't they so great?
• 1:18:31
  We should all turn Japanese. This is what everybody's saying,
• 1:18:35
  but I actually think what's far more likely is that Japan is the
• 1:18:39
  exception to the rule and all of the Keynesians and the modern
• 1:18:44
  monetary theorists. Can you guys hear them right now
• 1:18:47
  as Japan is blowing up? They're silent.
• 1:18:50
  Why are they silent? They're silent because Japan,
• 1:18:55
  they were the poster boy for Modern Monetary Theory.
• 1:18:59
  They were the country that everybody pointed to and said,
• 1:19:02
  look, 270% dead to GDP ratios. Ignore the fact that they had
• 1:19:07
  three decades of lost growth as their stock market, the Nikkei,
• 1:19:11
  took three decades to recover to a new all time high.
• 1:19:15
  Forget the fact that the central bank owns 70% of all the bonds
• 1:19:18
  in the country. Forget the fact that the central
• 1:19:20
  bank has to buy stocks to try to prop up the dying stock market.
• 1:19:25
  They just said look at Japan. It hasn't blown up because it
• 1:19:27
  has so much debt. It's a great, healthy economy
• 1:19:30
  and now Japan is blowing up. The yen's lost 50% of its value
• 1:19:35
  against the US dollar since 2020 alone.
• 1:19:38
  Think about that. The yen has lost 50% of its
• 1:19:41
  value just against the dollar since 2020.
• 1:19:44
  How much value has the dollar lost against goods and services
• 1:19:49
  since 2020? I know my stakes at least twice
• 1:19:53
  if not three times more expensive in the US pricing
• 1:19:57
  dollars. So how much of the poor Japanese
• 1:19:59
  lost? If the dollar's down by 40%
• 1:20:03
  against goods and services on average since 2020, and the
• 1:20:07
  yen's down by 50% against the dollar, you guys do your maths
• 1:20:11
  at home. But I think it's pretty clear
• 1:20:13
  that this Modern Monetary Theory experiment in Japan is not only
• 1:20:17
  crumbling, but it's dying at a pretty rapid rate, yields
• 1:20:21
  blowing out to their highest rates in 20 years.
• 1:20:25
  I do have the chart of showing you guys what actually happens
• 1:20:27
  when Fiat dies in the Weimar hyperinflation in 1923.
• 1:20:33
  It was not a slow and transition, you know, a slow and
• 1:20:36
  predictable transition. We blew up rapidly.
• 1:20:40
  Have a look at how many spikes bigger than 80% we saw in the
• 1:20:45
  price of gold denominated in the German mark.
• 1:20:50
  You guys can see we saw a complete monetary reset happen
• 1:20:55
  in seven years of massive volatility, huge volatility that
• 1:21:00
  we'd never seen before. But along that journey, we saw
• 1:21:04
  eight corrections bigger than 80% in the price of gold, the
• 1:21:08
  new money. So again, This is why I think
• 1:21:10
  the transition to a Bitcoin standard will be more volatile
• 1:21:13
  than most people think. It's like once the toothpaste
• 1:21:17
  comes out of a tube, there is no going back in.
• 1:21:21
  And what's the old analogy or saying goes when you yell fire
• 1:21:26
  in a movie theater, everybody races for the exit, but there's
• 1:21:30
  just simply the doors are not big enough to squeeze 500 people
• 1:21:35
  out of the movie theater. And I think the same analogy can
• 1:21:38
  be applied to Bitcoin. We've got a crumbling $300
• 1:21:42
  trillion debt market. And there's, you said that
• 1:21:46
  earlier in the show up D 94.5% of the Bitcoin has already been
• 1:21:50
  mined, meaning there's only 5.5% of the total Bitcoin supply left
• 1:21:56
  to be mined. And as we keep talking about in
• 1:21:58
  the show, the banks who are adopting Bitcoin in a really big
• 1:22:01
  way, a lot of these guys are coming into the Bitcoin space
• 1:22:05
  and they're holding this thing. I don't think all of these banks
• 1:22:09
  are going to be just trading their Bitcoin.
• 1:22:12
  I don't think that is why a lot of these big banks are adopting
• 1:22:15
  Bitcoin. I think a lot of them, again, I
• 1:22:17
  don't know, but I think many of these big banks, we're trying to
• 1:22:20
  emulate what the Giga chat is doing.
• 1:22:22
  Michael Saylor is openly saying, I want to hold Bitcoin for 100
• 1:22:27
  years. I think we're going to see a lot
• 1:22:29
  of banks try to emulate this sailor strategy because they
• 1:22:31
  know what's coming. They know that when Fiat dies,
• 1:22:35
  there's going to have to be a replacement.
• 1:22:37
  I think these guys are slowly starting to see the light and
• 1:22:40
  they're slowly starting to say, hey, just in case I'm wrong,
• 1:22:44
  maybe a 1% allocation to Bitcoin might protect me just in the
• 1:22:49
  event that I'm wrong. And we always talk about it here
• 1:22:51
  on the show. Going from zero to a 1%
• 1:22:54
  allocation, that's the hard part.
• 1:22:56
  Getting off 0 and admitting I'm, you know, I'm wrong.
• 1:22:59
  Not holding Bitcoin was a wrong position.
• 1:23:02
  I need to dip my toe in the water.
• 1:23:05
  Finally coming to that realization is so much harder
• 1:23:08
  than going from A 1% allocation to a 10% allocation because once
• 1:23:13
  you have that 1% allocation, it starts increasing in value.
• 1:23:16
  You naturally want to learn more about why this crazy Internet
• 1:23:20
  money is growing. And it's slowly becoming one
• 1:23:23
  percent, 2%, three percent, 4% of my total assets.
• 1:23:27
  And then all of a sudden, you're like, hey, 1% of my money is in
• 1:23:31
  Bitcoin. The other 99% of my money is
• 1:23:34
  losing value compared to the Bitcoin theme.
• 1:23:37
  Why don't I just buy more? So I think this is a lot of
• 1:23:40
  signal. This is huge confirmation that a
• 1:23:44
  lot of these banks are getting into Bitcoin.
• 1:23:46
  Jamie Dimon, CEO of a $4 trillion giant JP Morgan,
• 1:23:50
  quietly buying micro strategy. Again, as we continue to say
• 1:23:53
  here on the show, I don't think Jamie Dimon is buying micro
• 1:23:57
  strategy for their business intelligence services.
• 1:24:01
  They're buying it to get exposure to Bitcoin, the new
• 1:24:04
  money. What do you think, Opti?
• 1:24:06
  Do you think these guys are? Yeah, forced to get.
• 1:24:11
  I think really kind of connecting the dots with what
• 1:24:14
  we're seeing in the Japanese bond markets and of course,
• 1:24:16
  we've been watching Treasuries for the last couple.
• 1:24:18
  We're all macro experts now. I think it's not a coincidence
• 1:24:22
  that they are, you know, actively now changing their tune
• 1:24:26
  and being like, yeah, you know, hey, we'll sell you some
• 1:24:29
  Bitcoin. We're getting some micro
• 1:24:30
  strategy exposure. I think that is, like you said,
• 1:24:34
  confirmation that they know what's going on, they know
• 1:24:36
  what's coming down the pipeline and that they are scrambling and
• 1:24:40
  trying to get in position. I've been saying it for a long
• 1:24:43
  time. The billionaire flood playbook
• 1:24:44
  is simple. You say Bitcoin is what rat
• 1:24:47
  poison squared. You know, it's akin to smoking
• 1:24:50
  cigarettes. It's you know, it's going to
• 1:24:52
  boil all the oceans, has no intrinsic value.
• 1:24:56
  It's, it's, it's infinitely divisible like pizza.
• 1:24:59
  It's, you know, like my teeth are scarce.
• 1:25:01
  Why is Bitcoin have value etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.
• 1:25:04
  You fund it, you buy Bitcoin and then you announce your Bitcoin
• 1:25:10
  buys later. And one thing I do, I do want to
• 1:25:12
  wrap this up right now, Luke, but I do want to kind of echo
• 1:25:15
  what you said. Looking at this chart, I think
• 1:25:18
  you might be right with the idea that we won't be having
• 1:25:21
  prolonged bear markets, but we will probably see like 80% drops
• 1:25:26
  again, but maybe for not that long.
• 1:25:28
  So just like when, when you said that earlier, I was like, maybe,
• 1:25:31
  but looking at this chart right now, but that might, that might
• 1:25:34
  be, might be what happened. Anyways, Luke, we, we, we went a
• 1:25:39
  little long today. So guys, say thank you to Luke.
• 1:25:44
  Luke, plug your socials real quick and then we will wrap it
• 1:25:47
  up. So Luke's going to be on the
• 1:25:48
  show a lot more often. Guys, you better get used to the
• 1:25:50
  crazy haircut. Luke is going to be, you know,
• 1:25:53
  our #3 on the show here. Yeah, and the haircut's only
• 1:25:58
  going to get more wild for you guys in the chat because what do
• 1:26:01
  we always say? Haircuts.
• 1:26:03
  They're a proof point, OK? Why spend money on a haircut
• 1:26:06
  when you can stack more Bitcoin? So yeah, I.
• 1:26:09
  Need a haircut right now guys, I'm not going to lie.
• 1:26:12
  Oh, look, I need to look. No, that's why I got the hat on.
• 1:26:14
  That's why I got the hat on. All right, All right, All right.
• 1:26:18
  Yeah. So anyway, I also talk trash on
• 1:26:20
  YouTube, and you want to tell me I'm crazy?
• 1:26:23
  If you want to tell me I need to get a haircut, you can come and
• 1:26:25
  find me on YouTube and do exactly that.
• 1:26:28
  But thanks for having me Opti, And thanks to everyone who stuck
• 1:26:31
  around. Yeah, man.
• 1:26:31
  Well, appreciate it, Luke. Let me pull you behind the
• 1:26:34
  scenes and wrap it up. All right, guys, today was
• 1:26:37
  what's this episode #1248? It is Tuesday, May 20th in the
• 1:26:41
  year 2025. I've been your host, Opti.
• 1:26:44
  I really hope, you know, we hit some new angles here and it's
• 1:26:48
  not just Bitcoiners. We're trying to get new people
• 1:26:50
  to understand why we Bitcoin, why we're so vocal, why we're OK
• 1:26:54
  with you calling us, you know, being a part of a cult here.
• 1:26:57
  Look, the writing's on the wall here, and I think Bitcoiners are
• 1:27:02
  the only ones with the solution, the only ones that actually can
• 1:27:05
  help change this system. And as we're seeing, whether you
• 1:27:10
  like it or not, the monetary reset is happening in real time.
• 1:27:14
  You might want to buy some Bitcoin just in case it catches
• 1:27:16
  on. So on that note, I will see you
• 1:27:18
  tomorrow. Today's episode was brought to
• 1:27:21
  you by bitcoinwell.com, a Bitcoin only platform on a
• 1:27:25
  mission to enable financial independence.