Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 105 - 8/26/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:18Hello, and welcome to episode 105 of the All Systems Go sports
- 0:23Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
- 0:26I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
- 0:33Happy Monday, a new week begins. The final week in August.
- 0:38We just had college football kick off.
- 0:40And of course, we have the NFL done with week three of the
- 0:43preseason. The regular season is just now a
- 0:45couple weeks away and we have a lot to talk about.
- 0:48This is my favorite time of year.
- 0:49When you get all football returning basketball is right
- 0:52around the corner, both college and NBA.
- 0:53Hockey isn't too far off. And of course, we're going to
- 0:56continue to grind Major League Baseball.
- 0:58So for today, as we try to wind down the month of August on a
- 1:01hot note, A4 pack of sweats for you, including three Major
- 1:05League Baseball bats, along with one WNBA play and WNBA play is
- 1:09interesting to me because we have a great community model,
- 1:12the great rhythm AI as well as my own rhythm Josh model, both
- 1:16pointing to an over here. So I'm very much looking forward
- 1:19to breaking down all the action with you for today.
- 1:23Now I buried the lead because on Mondays, what do we like to do?
- 1:26We like to hopefully say, hey, hope you had a good weekend.
- 1:28But more importantly, did we extend our winning streak and
- 1:31biting to 11 straight? You're goddamn right.
- 1:34We did 11th straight win our guy.
- 1:38It's actually funny. I remember on the pot I called
- 1:40him Chow Baralho. Of course, that's my fault
- 1:43because my my pronunciation was completely off and I had a bunch
- 1:46of you loyal listeners tell me it was Kayo Borayo, I believe.
- 1:51So even though he butchered his name, he came through for us.
- 1:54Big winner there. Got some great closing line
- 1:56value -250 and always a bit of a steep price, but ended up
- 1:59closing around -275 so we beat the closing line.
- 2:03But of course, our model for the 11th straight Saturday came
- 2:07through the win. Only around 40% bets, but nearly
- 2:0970% money. A huge youth advantage, 31 years
- 2:13old versus 40, and also big height advantage, 6 foot one
- 2:16versus around 5 foot nine. But it was not easy if you were
- 2:20watching that bout, which I it was, luckily enough it was on
- 2:23ESPN and I think ESPN Plus. So I got to see it.
- 2:26Didn't have to get my boys together and pitch in 10 bucks
- 2:28and pay for the pay-per-view. But it wasn't easy.
- 2:30They rotated 5 rounds. I think Kyle won the first one,
- 2:34Jared Cannonier won the second one went back and forth and
- 2:37going into the fifth round I was sweating.
- 2:39So again it looked like it was going to be a toss up, who
- 2:43knows. And then fifth round Kyo
- 2:45absolutely crushed it, had a big takedown, ended up winning by
- 2:48unanimous decision. So golf clap for our 11th
- 2:53straight UFC pointing winner, which we love to extend our
- 2:57winning streak. But turn the page here
- 2:59figuratively and literally because again, win lose or draw,
- 3:03win eleven straight, lose 11 straight.
- 3:05Either way, you continue to grind and you continue to play
- 3:07the system matches, which are our data-driven sharp
- 3:10contrarian, which is always our goal.
- 3:12So without further ado, let's hopefully kick off our week with
- 3:15some winners here guys. Let's go right to the Major
- 3:17League Baseball slate, 11 games overall.
- 3:19There was 11 or 15 decent amount of games, but we have a couple
- 3:23day games. I know there's a double header
- 3:24as well, but there's a few games that caught my eye.
- 3:27So the first one being an early matchup here, 6:40 PM Eastern
- 3:31Time, first pitch, big interleague matchup, who knows,
- 3:34maybe a World Series matchup. We got the Houston Astros
- 3:37visiting the Philadelphia Phillies.
- 3:39So Astros come into this 170 and 60.
- 3:42They just split A4 game series against the OS.
- 3:45They won that Sunday series finale six to three as a -, 105
- 3:48row dog. Meanwhile, the fills just took
- 3:51two or three against the Royals. They won 11 to 3 yesterday as a
- 3:54+ 115 row dog. So for tonight's interleague
- 3:57series opener, let's start with the pitching matchup.
- 4:00We have the Astros going with the righty Ron L Blanco.
- 4:03He's nine and six with a 3.14 ERA.
- 4:05He'll be opposed by Phillies ace Zach Wheeler, the fellow veteran
- 4:09righty 12 and six 2.73 ERA. So what have you seen across the
- 4:14market here? Well, this game opened Phil's
- 4:16around a -, 145 home favorite Houston A + 125 road dog.
- 4:21And right off the bat, you know, I was wondering myself, hey, is
- 4:24the public going to just jump on Houston?
- 4:26You know, good team turned it around here in the second-half
- 4:29of the season. They struggled early, but
- 4:31Houston getting plus 125, you know, or is the public going to
- 4:34jump on that dog? Well, wise guys have actually
- 4:37gone the other way, gone with Philly here.
- 4:39There's been a big move toward the Phil's Phillies opening -145
- 4:43they're all the way up to -165 in some shops, even as high as
- 4:47-170 -, 175 S pretty consistent one way movement in favor of
- 4:52Philadelphia. That tells me the wise guys are
- 4:54on the Phillies here. Now.
- 4:55Phillies are getting at DraftKings 79% of money line
- 4:59bets, but almost 85% of money line dollars.
- 5:02Not just a public support play on the Phills, but also heavy
- 5:06wise guy, low bets, higher dollars with that big steam move
- 5:08in their favor, and the fields are matching quite a few betting
- 5:12systems. For me, one would just be
- 5:13classic interleague favorite value.
- 5:15So interleague favorite. When you don't play each other
- 5:17very often, that lack of familiarity really benefits the
- 5:21better team. Kind of.
- 5:22You see the cream rise to the top.
- 5:23When you don't really know your opponent, the better team tends
- 5:25to perform better. Also, you have a interleague
- 5:28favorite off a win system match as the Phillies are coming off a
- 5:31win and their interleague favorite here systems around 62%
- 5:35this season. So that's a system match on the
- 5:37fills and then also classic correlative betting favorite low
- 5:40total, because the total on this one is 8 and we have a line
- 5:44moving toward the favorite with a low total of eight.
- 5:46And if you actually look at the the total for this one, we've
- 5:50seen it go from 7 and a half eight.
- 5:52But the eights are really juiced under -115 So I always like it
- 5:56when you have the line moving toward the favorite and you have
- 5:58the juice toward the under because that's always a good
- 6:00sign. That lower scoring game, maybe,
- 6:03you know, 3, three to one game, four to two games, something
- 6:05like that hopefully benefits the better team, which would be
- 6:08based on the favorite designation.
- 6:10Philly here. Now dig into the pictures a
- 6:12little bit. Ronald Blanco, remember he threw
- 6:14the no, no, he got into a little bit of trouble, if I remember,
- 6:16with the sticky stuff, but he has a 4.34 ERA in four August
- 6:20starts. So he's kind of struggled on the
- 6:22year as ERA is 3.14. He's in the twos for a while,
- 6:26but he's kind of come back to earth in August.
- 6:27He's given up nine runs and 18.2 innings pitched.
- 6:30Meanwhile, Zach Wheeler, I think he's like 35 years old.
- 6:33Guy continues to grind 1.73 ERA in August four starts he's only
- 6:38given up five runs in 26 innings pitch and also home Rd. splits
- 6:42and day and night splits really benefit Wheeler in this spot.
- 6:46He has a 2.40 era at home versus 3.11 on the road.
- 6:51And he's also got a 2.42 era at night compared to 3.17 in the
- 6:55day. So he's been good at at night
- 6:57and good at home and guess what it's a home game at night in in
- 7:00Philly here at Citizens Bank ballpark.
- 7:03And also the Phillies bats really came alive in that series
- 7:05against Kansas City scored double digit runs last two
- 7:08games. Hopefully that's a good omen
- 7:09because the Phills bats are pretty hot right now.
- 7:12Let's hope they continue against Blanco.
- 7:13They're hitting 298 over the last 10 games, while the Stroh's
- 7:16are only hitting 266. So it's kind of noble to me
- 7:19that, hey, you got two good teams and it feels like this
- 7:22line is kind of high for Philly. But I think it's high for a
- 7:25reason and it's moving toward Philly for a reason.
- 7:27I'm going to lay the chalk here with the Phills, follow that big
- 7:29sharp steam move, I'm on Philadelphia, I got a little bit
- 7:32earlier today around -165 now they're as high as around -175
- 7:37across the market. Next bet, let's go to another
- 7:40interleague showdown here, 7:40 PM Eastern Time, first pitch,
- 7:44the Atlanta Braves facing the Minnesota Twins.
- 7:48Now the Braves come into this 170 and 60.
- 7:50Just took two or three against the Nats, but didn't get the
- 7:53sweep. They lost yesterday's series
- 7:54finale 5 to one as a -, 195 home favorite.
- 7:58Meanwhile, the Twinkies, 72 and 58, just dropped two or three
- 8:01against the Cardinals. They broke my heart yesterday
- 8:03because I actually took the Twins and they gave up two runs
- 8:06in the ninth. They're up two to one.
- 8:08I'm getting ready for a win. Then they give up A2, run,
- 8:10single the large new bar and lose 3:00 to 2:00.
- 8:12So Twins owe me a winner. And maybe if you played them
- 8:15yesterday, too, they owe you a winner.
- 8:17But anyway, pitch match up for tonight.
- 8:18We have the lefty Max Freed going for the Braves.
- 8:22He's seven and seven with a 3.57 ERA.
- 8:25We know the Twinkies are going to go with the righty Bailey
- 8:27over who's 12 and five with a 3.54 ERA.
- 8:30So what are we seeing across the market here?
- 8:32Well, this game opened around to pick them both sides around -110
- 8:36odds. And you've probably heard, heard
- 8:38me say this before, but it's always notable to me when a game
- 8:40opens at a pick, where does the line move?
- 8:43Obviously all line moves are meaningful.
- 8:45You know, some might be an injury, but a lot of times it's
- 8:47mostly smart money moving a number.
- 8:50Maybe the weather could move a total.
- 8:52But what's normal to me is when a game opens at a pick em,
- 8:55where's the line go? Because maybe sharps, wise guys,
- 8:58pros, whatever you want to call them, they have their power
- 9:00ratings on this game and maybe they also have a pick em, in
- 9:03which case there's no reason about the game or maybe they
- 9:06say, hey, we don't have a pick em.
- 9:08We got one team favorite here, so let's hit that team.
- 9:10Well, it looks like that team here is Minnesota.
- 9:12I'm going to go Twinkies guys because the public is leaning
- 9:15toward the Braves around 55% of money line bets.
- 9:19But the lines gone toward Minnesota -110 up to -120 So
- 9:24even though the Twins are only getting 45% of bets, the lines
- 9:27moving in their favor tells me you have a classic reverse line
- 9:30move when the betting line goes away from the popular side, in
- 9:33this case the Braves, toward the unpopular side, which would be
- 9:35the Twins. So not only that RLM, but a
- 9:38great bet split. Only 45% of money line bets are
- 9:41on Minnesota, but they're taking into account 61% of money line
- 9:45dollars. So a good sharp contrarian bet
- 9:47split there, plus 16% discrepancy.
- 9:51Then also, I'm going to bank on Minnesota's bats hopefully
- 9:53getting to Freed here tonight. They're hitting 253 on the year,
- 9:57633 runs scored. Atlanta is hitting 241 with 553
- 10:02runs scored. And Max Freed in particular.
- 10:05I've been high on him in years past, but he struggled in August
- 10:09and four starts. In August, he has a 6.10 ERA.
- 10:12He's given up fourteen runs in 20.2 innings pitched, and the
- 10:15Braves are only one in six and his last seven starts.
- 10:18Meanwhile, Bailey over. This guy's been incredible to
- 10:22me. He was kind of a, you know,
- 10:23mediocre pitcher. While he's putting together a
- 10:24great year, he has a 2.52 ERA in four August starts.
- 10:29He's only given up seven runs in 25 innings pitched and the Twins
- 10:33are five and one in his last six starts.
- 10:35And oh, by the way, going up against a lefty, Minnesota is
- 10:39hitting 264 against S paws this year.
- 10:42That's the third best. And Major League Baseball.
- 10:44So you open how to pick them. Publix leaning Braves, but lines
- 10:47going to the Twins. I got it back to Twinkies in
- 10:50this one, guys. Let's go.
- 10:51Minnesota, if you want to ride with me, I got the Twins at -120
- 10:55and also mention our friends at Juice Reel who does a great job
- 11:00with their Robo Jackson best bet picks that come out at noon
- 11:03every single day. Well, I popped open the app this
- 11:05morning right at noon. Always look forward to it and
- 11:08boom, what did I see? One of the two best bets tonight
- 11:11is on Minnesota, baby. So let's hope that Robo, as well
- 11:15as those of us who are following Twins can get a win here
- 11:18tonight. Again, twins -120 that's the bet
- 11:22last but of the night, 8:10 PM Eastern Time, first pitch, the
- 11:26Detroit Tigers facing the Chicago White Sox.
- 11:29Now the Tigers, 65 and 66, battling to get back to 500.
- 11:34They've taken the first three games of this four-game series.
- 11:37They won the opener five to two as a -, 160 Rd. favorite.
- 11:41They won the second game, thirteen to four as a -, 240 Rd.
- 11:44favorite. And then they won again
- 11:45yesterday 9:00 to 4:00 as a -, 150 Rd. favorite.
- 11:49And also saw the White Sox who are now on the year 31 and 100.
- 11:53They are the second fastest team I believe all time to reach 100
- 11:57losses. And I think they have to go.
- 11:59I saw a tweet I believe they have to go 12 and 19 down the
- 12:03stretch to avoid being the worst team in the history of baseball.
- 12:07And I don't think they're going to go 12 and 19.
- 12:09I would say maybe they go 6 and 25 S again, if you're a White
- 12:14Sox fan, my apologies. It's been a bad year, but
- 12:17hopefully we can make some money betting against the White Sox
- 12:19tonight. I'm going Tigers guys.
- 12:21So pitch match report tonight tie.
- 12:23Madden is going to go for the Tigers.
- 12:26He's making his MLB debut. He was a first round pick I
- 12:29believe in 20/21. He'll be opposed by Davis
- 12:33Martin, a ready who's going for the White Sox.
- 12:35He's O and two with a 3.22 ERA. So what are we seeing across the
- 12:39market here? Well, Detroit opened around a -,
- 12:42135 road favorite, Chicago around a + 125 home dog.
- 12:46And we mentioned a second ago, it's always notable to me.
- 12:48You open at a pic. Where's the line move?
- 12:50Well, in baseball in particular, you open with a or basically you
- 12:54have a starting pitcher making his debut.
- 12:56You know, where does the line move?
- 12:57Does the blind move in his favor because he's going to surprise
- 13:00the other team that never faced him?
- 13:01Maybe he's a good young kid or is he going to get lit up and
- 13:04the betting market bets against him?
- 13:07Well, I don't know if it's as much time Madden making his
- 13:09debut, a belief in Madden, or is it just the White Sox are
- 13:12terrible, terrible. But either way, lines going to
- 13:15Detroit, Detroit open -135 Detroit is now up to -150 some
- 13:21books I'm seeing like a -, 155 even.
- 13:23So, I was always shop around, try to get the best price.
- 13:26But Detroit is getting 86% of money line bets, nearly 90% of
- 13:30money line dollars. So we got pro and Joe support in
- 13:33addition to that steam move in favor of the Tigers.
- 13:36Now Detroit offensively, hopefully that's the edge here
- 13:39tonight and hopefully Madden pitch as well.
- 13:41But Detroit's offense on the year, hitting two 34134 homers,
- 13:45556 runs scored. Chicago only hitting two 21107
- 13:50homers, 408 runs scored. Tigers, meanwhile, are eight and
- 13:54one against the White Sox this year.
- 13:56So they've really cleaned up on Chicago and Chicago is just 18
- 14:00and 47 at home. Terrible, the worst home record
- 14:04in baseball. I want to fade them at the South
- 14:06in the South Side tonight. Tigers, meanwhile, seven and
- 14:09three over the last 10 playing pretty well.
- 14:11They're hitting 254 with a three-point O3 ERA.
- 14:15Meanwhile, the White Sox two and eight over their last ten,
- 14:17hitting just 2:40 with an ERA of six point O 7.
- 14:21Chicago, by the way, Owen 5 and Davis's five starts.
- 14:25So whether this is a straight fate of Chicago or a play on
- 14:29Madden and Tigers offense, either way, I'm going to fade.
- 14:32Chicago. I'm going Tigers here tonight.
- 14:34Guys, give me the Tigers. Shop around.
- 14:36I got them at -150 so a three pack here.
- 14:39Can we try to get two out of three, Philly, Minnesota and
- 14:43Detroit. Now over to the WNBA because WNB
- 14:48slate here for tonight. I believe you have three games
- 14:50overall and there's one that caught my eye.
- 14:52And if you want to sweat this one, you should be able to watch
- 14:54it on TV if you're one of those people like me who still has
- 14:57cable. I used to be a Comcast guy for a
- 14:59long time and switched to Verizon FiOS.
- 15:02That's my new cable provider. But it's always funny.
- 15:04People are like, you still have cable?
- 15:06And I'm like, yeah, I like watching all the sports channels
- 15:08and movie channels. So I'm one of those people who
- 15:11has not yet cut the cord. Anyway, this game's on NBATV
- 15:14tonight if you want to watch it. It's the New York Liberty facing
- 15:17the Phoenix Mercury 10:00 Eastern Time tonight.
- 15:21Coming in this one, the Liberty are 25 and five best record in
- 15:24the WNBA. Phoenix Mercury 16 and 14.
- 15:28We have the Liberty having just broken a winning streak here.
- 15:32They just lost to Connecticut, but prior to that, I think they
- 15:35had won four or five straight or no 12345678 straight and just
- 15:40lost to Connecticut on Saturday, 72 to 64.
- 15:43Meanwhile, the Mercury, they've kind of rotated wins and losses
- 15:46here. They are coming off a win 82 to
- 15:5080 against Atlanta, but they rotated wins and losses about
- 15:53the last four or five games. Anyway.
- 15:55What do we notice across the board here?
- 15:57Well, let's start with, I'll mention that the side, but my
- 16:00play here is going to be on the total.
- 16:02So in terms of the side, we've seen this line in terms of
- 16:06movement move a little bit in favor of New York.
- 16:12So New York open like -4 1/2. They're up to 5 1/2 or 6.
- 16:16But I'm focused on the total here because I saw a big Steam
- 16:19move, I saw a great bet split and I located a bunch of good
- 16:23system matches from Rhythm on the over.
- 16:26Yeah, the OVA. We are sweating the OVA tonight
- 16:28if you want to root for points. So this total opened up around
- 16:31162 and a half, 163. We've now seen it get steamed up
- 16:34to 166. So right off the bat, seen about
- 16:37a three 3 1/2 point move toward the OVA, which tells us that a
- 16:41lot of over money has come in and caused and basically forced
- 16:44the odds makers to adjust that total upward.
- 16:46So you have the line move to the over.
- 16:49We have a pretty good bet split to the over.
- 16:50The New York Phoenix over is getting 72% of bets but 84% of
- 16:55dollars. So low bets, higher dollars bets
- 16:57split to the over. I do have a system match on my
- 17:01own in my own database where when the total rises at least a
- 17:04point in the WNBA, take the over.
- 17:07That system is nearly 62% this season.
- 17:10But here's where it gets good. Let's look toward Rhythm, who
- 17:12does a fantastic job. And I want to shout out Rhythm
- 17:14in particular because I wanted to mention week zero of college
- 17:18football. I didn't play it.
- 17:19I'm taking kind of a not a wait and see approach, but I try to
- 17:23kind of start a little slow with college football.
- 17:25It's a long season. Week zero can kind of creep up
- 17:28on you. But I did notice Georgia Tech
- 17:30fit the model. They were super contrarian.
- 17:32I think it went from plus 13 down to plus 10.
- 17:35And a couple people reach out to me.
- 17:37I said, Yep, that's definitely a system play.
- 17:39They end up winning outright. But I want to give a shout out
- 17:41to Megan and James Santor and Brian and the whole crew at
- 17:44Rhythm because their NCAA Football projections, which are
- 17:49now live and ready to go on the app, they had a great edge
- 17:52toward Georgia Tech and Georgia Tech again, one outright as a 10
- 17:56point dog. So chef's kiss to the rhythm
- 17:58team. But anyway, Speaking of Rhythm,
- 18:01they have a lot of basically, I don't know, fingers pointing or
- 18:05system matches pointing to the over because let's start off
- 18:08with number one, my model. So you can create your own
- 18:11models in Rhythm or you can just follow the Rhythm AI models.
- 18:14But my model is predicting a final total of 168.3.
- 18:19So if we're going over 166, even though the line has moved quite
- 18:22a bit, you're still going to cash that over.
- 18:24And the Rhythm AI model is predicting 167.3.
- 18:28So both models are predicting a higher total than the current
- 18:31total. Then the Rhythm Community model,
- 18:34which is a premium feature. And again, if you haven't heard
- 18:37me talk about it, basically Rhythm, it looks at everyone who
- 18:39has a rhythm account who's created a system that is
- 18:42matching on the total or the side, and they give you
- 18:45basically a percentage of everyone in the app.
- 18:48Are they leaning over, under, dog favorite, whatever.
- 18:52Well, 89% of models are going over in this game.
- 18:58So we have a great rhythm over model.
- 18:59We're all the sharp people who have a rhythm account.
- 19:02The models they've created are all screaming over.
- 19:05We have my model, the rhythm model and we have also good bet
- 19:09split, good line move. So we're building a case here to
- 19:11go over. And then I was like to at least
- 19:14check out kind of the, you know, stats or you know, kind of the
- 19:17different matchup trends here to the over.
- 19:19Well one are two of the best offensive teams in the WNBA.
- 19:24We have the Liberty averaging 85.5 points per game.
- 19:27We have Phoenix averaging 83.3 points per game, Liberty are #1
- 19:32and three pointers made per game at 10.1 and Mercury are 5th 93
- 19:38pointers made per game. And also, can you make your free
- 19:41throws? The last WNBA play that I made
- 19:44and mentioned on the pod, I think we came up one point short
- 19:47and the idiot team made I think 60% or something of their free
- 19:51throws. So can you make your free throws
- 19:53tonight, ladies? Hopefully.
- 19:55But anyway, these are two of the top four free throw shooting
- 19:57teams. Liberty are 82.3%, Mercury are
- 20:0180.4%. So you add it all up.
- 20:03We've seen this total rise. We got a good bet split to the
- 20:06over low bets, higher dollars. We have a system match when the
- 20:09total rises. Take the over community model,
- 20:12my model, the rhythm model, good offense, good 3 point shooting,
- 20:16good free throw shooting and even lines.
- 20:18Move a little bit toward New York again, they open -4 1/2.
- 20:21You're up to around -5 1/2. You are a home dog with Phoenix.
- 20:24So home dog. Fight to the bitter end, you
- 20:27know, don't give up if you're on the road and just pack it in.
- 20:29So if we need some points late, if it gets close, which it
- 20:32always feels like it does, hopefully Phoenix will battle
- 20:35and keep scoring to the bitter end, but had too many indicators
- 20:38to go over, so I can't pass this one up.
- 20:40I'm going to go Liberty Mercury over over.
- 20:44If you're in Boston like me, let's go over 166.
- 20:49So that about does it for today's episode of the all
- 20:52systems go sports betting pod powered by rhythm episode one O
- 20:555. This is the part of part of the
- 20:57pod where I leave you with a few things.
- 20:59So First off, if you enjoy this podcast, if you look forward to
- 21:03it dropping each afternoon, if you enjoy the breakdowns and the
- 21:06approach, which is hey, no bias, no favoritism, no opinion.
- 21:10What's the model doing or what's the market doing?
- 21:13What models can we apply? Where's the public?
- 21:15Where are the sharps betting based on data analytics?
- 21:17If that style of betting appeals to you and you enjoy the pod,
- 21:21well, guess what? I would very much appreciate if
- 21:23you could give this podcast a 5 star review.
- 21:26If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, boom, click the five
- 21:29stars. If there's an option to leave a
- 21:31good review, I would love that as well.
- 21:33If you want to recommend it to a friend, word of mouth is always
- 21:36great. And if there's an option to
- 21:37follow, click the follow button. That way, as soon as it drops,
- 21:40it'll be in your library on Spotify or iTunes and it'll be
- 21:43alerted as soon as it drops each day.
- 21:46Hopefully you get a good number before we steam the market.
- 21:48Secondly, if you enjoy these breakdowns and you want to learn
- 21:51more about data-driven sharp contrary embedding, well, guess
- 21:55what? I got you covered because I
- 21:56wrote a book. That's right, I'm not just a
- 21:59sports betting analyst, I'm an author.
- 22:01I'm very proud of that. So if you want to learn more,
- 22:03support the team, pick up a copy, let me know you appreciate
- 22:06the hard work that I put in. Maybe gift it to a friend or
- 22:09buddy or family member of yours who maybe is new into betting or
- 22:13loves betting but doesn't win too much.
- 22:15Well, hey, buy them the everything guide to sports
- 22:18betting. Just go to Amazon.com, type in
- 22:20the Everything Guide to Sports betting.
- 22:22Again, it's got everything I've learned in the industry really
- 22:25from basically when I started back way back in 2011 when I got
- 22:29my first job in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
- 22:32they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
- 22:35action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
- 22:38for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan.
- 22:41All included in the Everything Guide to Sports betting.
- 22:45Lastly, I mentioned juice reel and I mentioned rhythm.
- 22:47But a little reminder here, have you taken advantage of a 7 day
- 22:51free trial? I want you guys to test out
- 22:53Juice Real and Rhythm because they're my two favorite sports
- 22:56betting apps on the market. They help me win and they can
- 22:58help you win. And of course, with the seven
- 23:00day free trial, you got nothing to lose.
- 23:02So if you're a data-driven better, you're gonna love
- 23:04Rhythm. They have AI predictive models
- 23:07here for both game bets and player props.
- 23:10College football is now live NFL is now live.
- 23:13They still have golf going on WNBA pretty soon NBA will be
- 23:17back college basketball all included at with rhythm.
- 23:21So you can follow the rhythm AI models.
- 23:23You can create your own. You can follow the community top
- 23:25plays, but rhythm is great and I want you guys to take advantage
- 23:28just like rhythm helped help those of you who noticed that
- 23:31Georgia, excuse me, Georgia Tech system match.
- 23:34So I want you to sign up for rhythm.
- 23:36No, we got the hiccups now using a special signup link that is
- 23:39located in the bio description of this podcast.
- 23:42You should see a link there for Rhythm and a link for Juice
- 23:44Reel. And Juice Reel is great with the
- 23:46Robo Jackson AI best bet picks if you want to just follow those
- 23:50each day. You can tail them or you can
- 23:52take advantage of arbitrage bets.
- 23:54They'll quickly let you know the sharp mush bets of the day, as
- 23:57well as linking and syncing up your sports books.
- 24:00So as soon as you bet at FanDuel DraftKings, you know, wherever
- 24:03it may be, it'll go right to the app and it'll give you a running
- 24:06report card of your performance. So I love that aspect as well.
- 24:10But both Juice really and rhythm.
- 24:11Sign up with that custom link in the bio description of the
- 24:14podcast. So that about doesn't everyone
- 24:16Episode 105 four pack here tonight.
- 24:19See, we can get three out of four.
- 24:20That'll be a good night here. But this is the part of the pod
- 24:23where I leave you with a couple of words of encouragement.
- 24:25So whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
- 24:29River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
- 24:31Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut at the Encore in
- 24:34Boston, or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield and my
- 24:38neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
- 24:39Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get down
- 24:42or Billy Walter sends his number runners where the lowest juice
- 24:45possible, it's found at the South Point.
- 24:47Or Sweat and Sharp Contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
- 24:49swimming pool at Circa. When you cash a big ticket,
- 24:52you're going to walk up to me and there's only 1 ticket we're
- 24:55going to show to each other when we meet up at the book.
- 24:58And it is a Kayo Borrejo 11th straight biting UFC winner.
- 25:03You'll love to see it guys, chef's kiss.
- 25:06Just awesome that our model continues to cash in the UFC.
- 25:09But guess what first one's on me next one's on you.
- 25:11We're going to post about the book sweatshop contrarian plays
- 25:14all night long. So wish you the best luck.
- 25:16Everyone have a great Monday and of course we back at it tomorrow
- 25:20for episode one O 6 of the all systems go sports betting pod
- 25:24powered by rhythm. As always guys stay sharp, stay
- 25:28contrarian, bet against the public, place yourself on the
- 25:30side of the house always be with the smart money never against
- 25:33it. Will smart money when every time
- 25:35of course not. There's no such thing as a
- 25:37locker guarantee. Sports betting is difficult.
- 25:40You know you can be on the sharp side and have a bad beat.
- 25:42You could maybe have a great backdoor cover, but the beauty
- 25:45of sports betting is every day we get a new opportunity and a
- 25:48new challenge to try to eke out a profit betting with our head
- 25:51and not our heart. So we can do that go against the
- 25:55public with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays,
- 25:58get that CLV. If we can do that consistently
- 26:00long term, we're going to be successful sports betters.
- 26:03So have a great money now, everyone, and again, I'll see
- 26:05you tomorrow for a big Tuesday episode one O 6 of the all
- 26:09systems go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
- 26:13Good luck everybody, enjoy the sweats.