Latest / Toadstool Sports / Cubs/Reds MLB + NFL + WNBA Playoffs Best Bets Sunday 9/21/25
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on
- 0:05Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
- 0:08Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
- 0:11Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
- 0:14Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you above that. I
- 0:17Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
- 0:20Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
- 0:24Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
- 0:28Speaker 1: that have not had a good season. Man with wookends
- 0:33Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
- 0:37Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
- 0:41Speaker 1: bruins hat man. I don't know what is going on
- 0:43Speaker 1: with the Bruins arch hape? Is that what it is?
- 0:46Speaker 1: I don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think
- 0:49Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what day is anymore.
- 0:52Speaker 1: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man's
- 0:55Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
- 0:58Speaker 1: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
- 1:02Speaker 1: I die, at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday
- 1:06Speaker 1: it did not go well for me. Own five, the
- 1:09Speaker 1: worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen years
- 1:12Speaker 1: doing this, I don't know what to even tell you
- 1:14Speaker 1: about this anymore. The slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
- 1:20Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what
- 1:24Speaker 1: I should do at this point other than potentially end
- 1:27Speaker 1: it all. What's up, guys? Sowed back with you better
- 1:35Speaker 1: off dead Sunday, whatever it is. September twenty first, thanks
- 1:40Speaker 1: for everybody who hung out for the NFL show last night.
- 1:42Speaker 1: If you missed it, there's still time you can go
- 1:44Speaker 1: watch it. And I gave out three NFL plays which
- 1:47Speaker 1: everybody hates, all of them. Cleveland Browns plus seven and
- 1:50Speaker 1: a half, Jets plus six and a half, Carolina Panthers
- 1:54Speaker 1: plus five. If those sound insane, then they you're I mean,
- 2:00Speaker 1: they probably should. You can go watch that show to
- 2:03Speaker 1: see my analysis on it. I'll look at the market
- 2:05Speaker 1: read one more time at the end of the show
- 2:07Speaker 1: talk about NFL just very briefly, but the analysis is
- 2:10Speaker 1: all in the NFL show. Today, we're gonna talk WNBA playoffs,
- 2:13Speaker 1: and I have two baseball plays. I don't love the
- 2:16Speaker 1: baseball board today really, but yesterday five and two day overall,
- 2:20Speaker 1: we went two and two in college football should have
- 2:22Speaker 1: been better than that. I was a win in college
- 2:25Speaker 1: football because two underdog money line hits happened, with Memphis
- 2:29Speaker 1: and Kansas State both winning outright, so that was good.
- 2:32Speaker 1: Miami Ohio had.
- 2:33Speaker 2: To lead the entire game and then blew it at
- 2:36Speaker 2: the end.
- 2:36Speaker 1: The only time of the game they were not covering
- 2:38Speaker 1: was the final score where they missed by half point, which,
- 2:41Speaker 1: of course you could say, well, you got to get
- 2:43Speaker 1: the better of the number. Yeah, that's true, but I
- 2:45Speaker 1: still think Miami Ohio should have covered the whole thing.
- 2:48Speaker 1: I still think they should have won the game outright.
- 2:50Speaker 1: So it was just kind of bullshit the way that
- 2:51Speaker 1: that ended. And then on the plus two and a half, yeah,
- 2:55Speaker 1: I know, and then Florida just did not get there.
- 2:57Speaker 1: That was closer then it looked as far as like
- 3:01Speaker 1: what the score was late in the game was thirteen
- 3:03Speaker 1: to seven with four minutes left in the game, but
- 3:05Speaker 1: Miami was driving at that time. They were going to
- 3:08Speaker 1: kick a field goal at that time, and then Florida
- 3:10Speaker 1: did have a chance to get some points back just
- 3:13Speaker 1: to get back within that number, but that's not how
- 3:15Speaker 1: the game played out. They were within that spread late
- 3:18Speaker 1: in the game, man, and then baseball. I was three
- 3:21Speaker 1: and oh yesterday, with the first five unders being basically
- 3:24Speaker 1: no sweat on A's Pirates and Blue Jay's Royals. The
- 3:28Speaker 1: full games both went way under two, I'm pretty sure,
- 3:30Speaker 1: and then the Red Sox made a sweat a little
- 3:33Speaker 1: bit towards the end, but the Red Sox also got there.
- 3:37Speaker 1: I will move on to today. We'll do the breakdown. Let's
- 3:40Speaker 1: do it, all right, we got a WNBA up first year.
- 3:48Speaker 1: Let me see it. Actually, let me make sure make
- 3:49Speaker 1: sure that my I have to make sure that my
- 3:52Speaker 1: mike audio sounds good, which I have not done. I
- 3:55Speaker 1: just dive right into the rant, man, and then I
- 3:57Speaker 1: just start going and don't check. I usually I checked
- 4:00Speaker 1: the audio during the intro obviously because I'm just sitting
- 4:03Speaker 1: around not doing anything. Oh, hold on, let we see.
- 4:06Speaker 1: Let me just make sure.
- 4:08Speaker 2: Yeah, it seems fine. All right, So WNBA, We're in.
- 4:13Speaker 1: The semifinals already here, man, which is crazy. I mean,
- 4:17Speaker 1: it's a it's a quick WNBA playoffs. This These series
- 4:21Speaker 1: in the finals are all best of five instead of
- 4:23Speaker 1: best of three like the first round is.
- 4:26Speaker 2: We have really just one really unexpected team in here.
- 4:30Speaker 1: Just Indiana having upset Atlanta to get here, they're having
- 4:33Speaker 1: to go to Las Vegas. Vegas is definitely better at home. Vegas,
- 4:38Speaker 1: of course, is on a huge hot streak at the
- 4:40Speaker 1: end of the season. They're seventeen and five at home.
- 4:42Speaker 1: Indiana's eleven and eleven on the road eleven to eleven.
- 4:46Speaker 1: So Vegas definitely much better at home. Indiana not so
- 4:49Speaker 1: good on the road. We know Indiana is without Clark
- 4:52Speaker 1: and Cunningham. I believe Indiana won two out of three
- 4:55Speaker 1: games against Vegas during the regular season, and I think
- 5:01Speaker 1: two of those I think were without Clark, So I
- 5:04Speaker 1: think Indiana might have beaten them twice without Clark. I
- 5:06Speaker 1: have to let me look at that real quick. It
- 5:08Speaker 1: might be four games. Actually, hang on, I thought I
- 5:10Speaker 1: had it straight in my mind, but maybe I don't.
- 5:14Speaker 1: So they lost at Vegas. One just blew Vegas out,
- 5:18Speaker 1: which I think was part of the Commissioner's Cup maybe
- 5:21Speaker 1: back in July, and then they beat them again. So
- 5:24Speaker 1: they beat Vegas twice at home though, so the only
- 5:26Speaker 1: time Indiana did play on the road against Vegas, they
- 5:29Speaker 1: did lose. So the home team won all three of
- 5:32Speaker 1: their matchups. Indiana won two of them at home, and
- 5:35Speaker 1: I believe those were both without Caitlyn Clark. So all
- 5:38Speaker 1: things to keep in mind here, but I think you
- 5:40Speaker 1: got to just lean to Vegas here.
- 5:41Speaker 2: Man, it's the start of a new series.
- 5:43Speaker 1: Vegas. They didn't look good in clinching their series. They
- 5:47Speaker 1: had lost to Seattle on the road after they blew
- 5:49Speaker 1: them out in the first game. I remember I gave
- 5:51Speaker 1: out a play on Seattle in the game. At Seattle,
- 5:53Speaker 1: we got that one as a money line hit on
- 5:56Speaker 1: the underdog money line. That was solid. And then Vegas
- 6:00Speaker 1: came back and they were favored by even more in
- 6:01Speaker 1: the last game, and I was like, well, that line
- 6:03Speaker 1: shifted too much and they barely covered, They barely got by.
- 6:06Speaker 1: They almost lost, actually, so Vegas. I mean that was
- 6:09Speaker 1: an elimination game too, So that's even more to say
- 6:12Speaker 1: that Vegas was that close to not even being here.
- 6:15Speaker 1: But when they have a scare like that, I think
- 6:17Speaker 1: you're gonna see them refocus in this game. I'm not
- 6:19Speaker 1: sure that Indiana, with their lack of depth, can really
- 6:22Speaker 1: do this. I don't think they can get through a
- 6:24Speaker 1: five game series, that's for sure. But I think Vegas
- 6:26Speaker 1: will show up in this game. The money's kind of
- 6:28Speaker 1: going against them, but they're up for six and a
- 6:30Speaker 1: half to eight eighty percent of tickets, only seventy nine
- 6:32Speaker 1: percent of the cash or excuse that's Minnesota. What am
- 6:35Speaker 1: I saying? Vegas is sitting in a nine point favorite,
- 6:38Speaker 1: my mistake, fifty two percent of tickets, fifty five percent
- 6:41Speaker 1: of the cash on them, So they're sitting right around
- 6:43Speaker 1: the same number, but some of the cash is actually
- 6:45Speaker 1: coming in on Vegas in this one. I do not
- 6:47Speaker 1: disagree with that. I would lean to Vegas and then
- 6:51Speaker 1: Phoenix at Minnesota. Phoenix was able to get through the
- 6:53Speaker 1: New York Liberty and the only h oh No, it
- 6:56Speaker 1: wasn't the only three games series because Vegas played a
- 6:58Speaker 1: three game series as well, So those two teams got
- 7:01Speaker 1: through three game series. Phoenix at Minnesota and actually I
- 7:06Speaker 1: think did Indiana sweep No, they had a three game
- 7:09Speaker 1: series as well. I'm all thrown off right now. So
- 7:11Speaker 1: the only team in this round that actually swept was Minnesota.
- 7:14Speaker 1: Swept the Valkyries two to zero. Minnesota did only win
- 7:19Speaker 1: by one in the last game at Golden State, but
- 7:21Speaker 1: they've had a little bit extra time off. We know
- 7:23Speaker 1: how good Minnesota is though they're the best team in
- 7:26Speaker 1: the league, they're a big favorite in this game for
- 7:28Speaker 1: a reason. Even though Phoenix is decent, Minnesota I think
- 7:31Speaker 1: has an experienced edge to and SODA's Las Vegas. By
- 7:34Speaker 1: the way, these teams they're used to being here. Vegas
- 7:36Speaker 1: I think won the championship a couple of years ago.
- 7:38Speaker 1: Minnesota was in the finals last year and probably should
- 7:41Speaker 1: have won against the New York Liberties. So Minnesota, I mean,
- 7:45Speaker 1: they were really gonna be going for it this year.
- 7:47Speaker 1: They have the experience. Indiana less experienced just overall, and
- 7:51Speaker 1: of course in the playoffs. Phoenix doesn't quite have as
- 7:55Speaker 1: much a playoff experience either, I don't think so Minnesota.
- 7:58Speaker 1: I think there are some reasons to like Minnesota in
- 8:00Speaker 1: this game. Minnesota is also really good at home. They're
- 8:03Speaker 1: twenty and two at home, Phoenix twelve and ten on
- 8:06Speaker 1: the Road's not bad over five hundred on the road,
- 8:08Speaker 1: but Minnesota's just been totally dominant at home, So again
- 8:13Speaker 1: something to consider. Vegas, by the way, he has only
- 8:15Speaker 1: lost one game over the last few weeks, which was
- 8:18Speaker 1: the one in that playoff series. In Minnesota, I don't
- 8:21Speaker 1: even know when the last time they lost at home
- 8:23Speaker 1: was it's probably been a long time, so you're looking
- 8:25Speaker 1: at two teams that are really hot in that respect.
- 8:29Speaker 1: As far as Minnesota against Phoenix during the regular season,
- 8:33Speaker 1: I believe they won three out of the four games.
- 8:35Speaker 1: They won at Phoenix, then won at home against Phoenix,
- 8:38Speaker 1: lost one of the games at Phoenix, and won at
- 8:40Speaker 1: home again against Phoenix. Minnesota won both games at home
- 8:43Speaker 1: by double digits, including one where they were returning home
- 8:46Speaker 1: for road trips, so it wasn't even that good of
- 8:48Speaker 1: a spot and they still did it. So I would
- 8:51Speaker 1: lean to Minnesota in this one, even though, as I
- 8:52Speaker 1: was pointing out, the money's actually coming in against them
- 8:55Speaker 1: a little bit, even though they're up from six and
- 8:56Speaker 1: a half to eight eighty percent of tickets seventy nine
- 8:59Speaker 1: percent of cash on so looks like the money kind
- 9:01Speaker 1: of coming in against them. They're a bit public, so
- 9:05Speaker 1: possible that Vegas is the better of those two sides,
- 9:08Speaker 1: but I would probably only lead to Minnesota on that
- 9:10Speaker 1: game too, though major League Baseball, let's go man so
- 9:14Speaker 1: for baseball, this first game up is gonna be one
- 9:17Speaker 1: of my plays Yankees Baltimore, so will skip it for now.
- 9:20Speaker 1: Get back to it at the end A's at Pittsburgh.
- 9:24Speaker 1: This is a series where, like I pointed out yesterday,
- 9:27Speaker 1: these teams are not very familiar with each other, so
- 9:29Speaker 1: sometimes that lends itself to lower scoring because it means
- 9:32Speaker 1: the pitchers are pretty unfamiliar and the hitters can struggle
- 9:35Speaker 1: at times. Yesterday that was like the ultimate play for
- 9:37Speaker 1: that though, with two really young pitchers going up against
- 9:40Speaker 1: each other that have both been good and both were
- 9:42Speaker 1: really unfamiliar to the opponents. Bubba Chandler looks like he
- 9:45Speaker 1: might be solid man. He had a good start to
- 9:47Speaker 1: the game yesterday and then him him plus two or
- 9:50Speaker 1: he plus two pirates relievers combined for a one hitter,
- 9:54Speaker 1: which Chandler was the one who gave up the hit,
- 9:56Speaker 1: so he didn't have a no hitter when he got
- 9:58Speaker 1: taken out of the game, but one hit. A combined
- 10:01Speaker 1: performance from Pittsburgh's pitching that's pretty impressive against the A's,
- 10:05Speaker 1: who our team that can hit. The A's obviously have
- 10:07Speaker 1: the better offense in this matchup the bullpens, the advantage
- 10:13Speaker 1: goes to Pittsburgh. Obviously, neither team used a lot of
- 10:15Speaker 1: their relievers yesterday, so both bullpens are pretty rested, especially Pittsburgh's.
- 10:19Speaker 1: Pittsburghs maybe the most rested bullpen right now in all baseball.
- 10:23Speaker 1: But it doesn't matter a whole lot because these teams
- 10:25Speaker 1: are both out of it, so they're just playing out
- 10:27Speaker 1: the stretch here. The teams will split the first two
- 10:30Speaker 1: games of the series, so this is a rubber match
- 10:33Speaker 1: for the pitching. Mitch Spence is pitching for the A's.
- 10:37Speaker 1: Mediocre numbers from him this year four point four to
- 10:40Speaker 1: eighty RA, one point three to three WHIP. He's actually
- 10:42Speaker 1: been better on the road, which well, it makes sense
- 10:45Speaker 1: because that home stadium for the A's is not good.
- 10:49Speaker 1: It's a killer of pitchers. It's a very hitter friendly park.
- 10:52Speaker 1: He's much better away from home with a two point
- 10:54Speaker 1: six to eight road era. I think he was injured
- 10:57Speaker 1: or something, because he was actually out of the rotation
- 11:00Speaker 1: at least for two months. I don't know. Maybe he
- 11:02Speaker 1: was in You might have not been injured. He might
- 11:04Speaker 1: have been demoted to the bullpen, or not demoted really
- 11:07Speaker 1: but moved at least to the bullpen. His last appearance,
- 11:11Speaker 1: well he didn't appear at all though, so actually I
- 11:13Speaker 1: don't know where he was. Maybe he was in the minors.
- 11:15Speaker 1: I have no clue because he missed like two months.
- 11:17Speaker 1: He came back and he pitched three and two thirds
- 11:20Speaker 1: innings shut out ball against the Red Sox back on
- 11:23Speaker 1: September sixteenth.
- 11:25Speaker 2: I don't know if that. I don't remember if that
- 11:26Speaker 2: was a start or not.
- 11:28Speaker 1: He had one strike out, two walks in that one,
- 11:30Speaker 1: so he did okay. But you don't want to walk
- 11:32Speaker 1: more guys than you strike out man against Pittsburgh. It's
- 11:35Speaker 1: a very small sample and the only five guys who've
- 11:37Speaker 1: ever faced him before, but in ten at bats they
- 11:41Speaker 1: do have a three hundred average off him seven hundred
- 11:43Speaker 1: oh ps, one strikeout, no walks. It's such such a
- 11:46Speaker 1: small sample size, so you can't really take anything away
- 11:48Speaker 1: from that. Pittsburgh is going with Mike Burrows, who I
- 11:51Speaker 1: believe this is his rookie season. He's been decent four
- 11:55Speaker 1: point one ERA, one point two four whip better at
- 11:58Speaker 1: home slightly four point three ERA. His last outing wasn't
- 12:03Speaker 1: great at Washington give it three or runs when he
- 12:05Speaker 1: lasted four and a third, but he did still have
- 12:06Speaker 1: six strikeouts in one walk, so his command numbers have
- 12:10Speaker 1: been decent.
- 12:12Speaker 2: He hasn't gone very deep into games.
- 12:13Speaker 1: Recently, though, they've been limiting his pitches, I think because
- 12:16Speaker 1: he is a rookie and there's no reason to overextend
- 12:19Speaker 1: him with the season being over. But he's pitched well
- 12:21Speaker 1: when he's been out there for the most part this
- 12:23Speaker 1: month as a three point one to eighty RA fourteen
- 12:26Speaker 1: to three strikeout walk ratio. Just a little bit of
- 12:29Speaker 1: a limited sample size there, and the A's have never
- 12:32Speaker 1: seen it before, so he does have that edge. Where Again,
- 12:35Speaker 1: I mean it's another one of these games where the
- 12:37Speaker 1: pitchers are unfamiliar to the hitters. Man definitely happens a
- 12:40Speaker 1: lot in September two with September call ups and stuff,
- 12:43Speaker 1: so the A's are unfamiliar with the Borrows. He probably
- 12:46Speaker 1: has a little bit of an edge in the starting
- 12:47Speaker 1: pitching matchup. I would say over Spence too. He's like
- 12:50Speaker 1: the more talented of the two pitchers, So that would
- 12:53Speaker 1: be my opinion on this game. I think I would
- 12:56Speaker 1: lean towards an under in the first five innings because
- 12:58Speaker 1: I think both pitchers are pretty unfamiliar with each other.
- 13:01Speaker 1: Totals just sitting at eight and a half, not really
- 13:03Speaker 1: doing anything, sixty two percent of tickets on the over
- 13:05Speaker 1: sixty five percent of cash on the over even though
- 13:08Speaker 1: the bullpen's arrested. I kind of hesitate to want to
- 13:10Speaker 1: go full game on that if I recommend that, but
- 13:13Speaker 1: I think first five under again might be worth a look.
- 13:15Speaker 1: I don't like it as much as I did yesterday, obviously,
- 13:18Speaker 1: and I do the money that's coming in on Pittsburgh.
- 13:20Speaker 1: I do agree with that they're up for minus one
- 13:22Speaker 1: away to minus one sixteen sixty two percent of tickets
- 13:25Speaker 1: ninety nine percent of cash, or it just changed to
- 13:26Speaker 1: fifty nine percent of tickets ninety eight percent of cash,
- 13:30Speaker 1: whatever the percentage really is. I think the money is
- 13:32Speaker 1: actually indeed coming in on Pittsburgh. I do agree with
- 13:34Speaker 1: that they have a little bit of a bullpen edge.
- 13:36Speaker 1: I think they have a little bit of a starting
- 13:37Speaker 1: pitching edge there. Of course they don't have the offensive edge,
- 13:40Speaker 1: but I prefer pitching overall offense. And Pittsburgh is actually
- 13:44Speaker 1: not that bad at home. Remember, even though the A's
- 13:46Speaker 1: actually do a little bit better on the road than
- 13:48Speaker 1: they do at home, they're below five hundred at home,
- 13:51Speaker 1: They're five hundred exactly on the road. Pittsburgh is actually
- 13:54Speaker 1: above five hundred at home. Despite their bad records. So
- 13:57Speaker 1: they're significantly better at home. I'm gonna keep in mind,
- 14:00Speaker 1: but again, both teams just playing out the stretch Atlanta
- 14:03Speaker 1: at Detroit Detroit. This is getting ridiculous, man. Detroit has
- 14:07Speaker 1: lost five games in a row, They've lost eight of
- 14:10Speaker 1: their last nine games. They got swept by Cleveland, and
- 14:13Speaker 1: now they're sitting only one game ahead of Cleveland. And
- 14:17Speaker 1: there is the possibility that Detroit doesn't even make the playoffs.
- 14:21Speaker 1: After they had a huge lead in the NL Centro
- 14:23Speaker 1: and it looked like, well that's over. Obviously Detroit will
- 14:26Speaker 1: make the playoffs. It's possible that they don't. This is insane, dude.
- 14:32Speaker 1: Cleveland swept both games of a doubleheader yesterday, so the
- 14:34Speaker 1: Red Sox won and they lost ground anyway to Cleveland
- 14:38Speaker 1: because Cleveland won twice, which you know, I'm pissed about that.
- 14:42Speaker 1: It's just ridiculous. Cleveland has such a bullshit matchup against
- 14:45Speaker 1: this Minnesota team is just throwing the season at this point.
- 14:50Speaker 1: I hate it so much. Dude. On the Red Sox.
- 14:53Speaker 1: They're gonna have to face Detroit at the end of
- 14:54Speaker 1: the season too, so that's gonna be a ridiculous matchup
- 14:57Speaker 1: with wild card potential. Implications because Cleveland could overtake they're
- 15:01Speaker 1: only one game behind Detroit. They could overtake Detroit, and
- 15:04Speaker 1: then Detroit might be battling for a wildcard spot. I mean,
- 15:08Speaker 1: it's this is insane, these teams. So you have Red Sox, Cleveland, Houston, Detroit,
- 15:14Speaker 1: and Seattle. Those five teams are all fighting for three
- 15:18Speaker 1: playoff spots at this point basically. So it's crazy. It's insane.
- 15:22Speaker 1: And the Yankees are I mean, the Yankees are in
- 15:24Speaker 1: the mix too. This is just the wildcard standings here,
- 15:27Speaker 1: but they have a little bit of padding there now
- 15:28Speaker 1: because they won again yesterday. I'm not happy about it,
- 15:31Speaker 1: but that's the deal there. And you can see here
- 15:34Speaker 1: the run differential Cleveland, even after all this that they've
- 15:37Speaker 1: been doing with ten wins in a row, they still
- 15:39Speaker 1: have a negative run differential. It's just ridiculous. If they
- 15:42Speaker 1: wind up making the playoffs, man, it's insane. Texas plus
- 15:46Speaker 1: eighty four run differential, they're not going to make the playoffs.
- 15:50Speaker 1: And then, of course Red Sox and Yankees both have
- 15:52Speaker 1: really good run differentials. They're two of the top I
- 15:55Speaker 1: think three or four in all of the American League.
- 15:57Speaker 2: DJ, what's up man?
- 15:58Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out getting some of the Twitter views
- 16:01Speaker 1: here today. Hopefully we can make some money today. I
- 16:05Speaker 1: think I like my NFL plays better than the baseball
- 16:07Speaker 1: players that I have today. By the way, but I
- 16:09Speaker 1: am just ranting about this Detroit thing. But we got
- 16:12Speaker 1: to talk about what's going on. Detroit has to show up,
- 16:14Speaker 1: man like. They know that they need to start winning
- 16:17Speaker 1: these games. They're on the version getting swept at home
- 16:20Speaker 1: by the Atlanta Braves, who have nothing to play for.
- 16:22Speaker 1: I mean, come on, I know that the Braves are
- 16:24Speaker 1: better than the record. Looks sure their talent levels higher
- 16:27Speaker 1: than that, but this is ridiculous. Detroit, I think, had
- 16:29Speaker 1: the lead in yesterday's game and they blew the game,
- 16:32Speaker 1: lost six to five. There was a lot of bullpen
- 16:34Speaker 1: usage in that game on both sides. I think Detroit
- 16:37Speaker 1: is a slightly better bullpen over Atlanta, but tons of usage.
- 16:41Speaker 1: They use six relief pitchers yesterday Atlanta used five. Atlanta's
- 16:45Speaker 1: is a bit more rested right now, so I don't
- 16:48Speaker 1: really think you can give Detroit much of a bullpen
- 16:50Speaker 1: edge in this game. I do think they have the
- 16:51Speaker 1: offensive edge. They're kind of a mediocre offense. Atlanta does
- 16:55Speaker 1: have the more talented starting pitcher of the two at
- 16:57Speaker 1: Spencer Stride Or although his numbers have been good this year,
- 17:00Speaker 1: he's struggled to come back from an injury. Or I
- 17:04Speaker 1: think he missed like an entire season. I think he
- 17:05Speaker 1: might have had Tommy John. Everybody's having Tommy John four
- 17:09Speaker 1: point six four ERA for him one point three six whip.
- 17:12Speaker 1: He's shown glimpses of being really good again like his
- 17:14Speaker 1: former self, but he's also been really bad at times.
- 17:18Speaker 1: He's a little bit worse on the road four point
- 17:20Speaker 1: six to eight road ERA. There was a streak going
- 17:24Speaker 1: on and the Braves had lost six of his starts
- 17:27Speaker 1: in a row, and then they finally won one last
- 17:28Speaker 1: time out. But he's actually not pitching badly this month really.
- 17:32Speaker 1: He's allowed three or fewer on runs of four starts
- 17:35Speaker 1: in a row, has a three ERA across his three
- 17:37Speaker 1: starts this month. Two of them are against the Cubs,
- 17:40Speaker 1: and we know the Cubs are a decent lineup, even
- 17:42Speaker 1: though they haven't been hitting as well recently. The one
- 17:45Speaker 1: issue with Strider as he walked too many guys this
- 17:48Speaker 1: month so far fifteen to eight strike out walk right
- 17:50Speaker 1: show that's a concern The strike got rate a little
- 17:53Speaker 1: bit lower than you usually see from him in the
- 17:55Speaker 1: walk rate too high, so he's got to get that
- 17:57Speaker 1: under control. Literally. Against Detroit, they haven't seen much of him.
- 18:02Speaker 1: They only have sixteen at bats against him. Five guys
- 18:05Speaker 1: have faced him before, not the Burger chain. Uh. They
- 18:09Speaker 1: do have five strikeouts in one walk against him, so
- 18:12Speaker 1: he's done decently against him. They have a two fifty
- 18:15Speaker 1: average seven thirty two ops. Torklesen does have a home
- 18:18Speaker 1: run off, but it's such a small sample. I think
- 18:21Speaker 1: you kind of have to gauge Strider based on what
- 18:23Speaker 1: he's done recently, and he's been okay at his best.
- 18:27Speaker 1: He's definitely better than Casey Mize at his best. Miz
- 18:30Speaker 1: starting for the Tigers. Here's his numbers look decent this year,
- 18:34Speaker 1: but I don't think he's as good as his numbers look,
- 18:35Speaker 1: as I keep saying, three point eight eighty Rara one
- 18:39Speaker 1: point two eight whips a bit higher than you would
- 18:42Speaker 1: like to see, or at least then I would like
- 18:44Speaker 1: to see. He is better at home though, three point
- 18:46Speaker 1: five to nine homey Ra. He's been decent this month
- 18:50Speaker 1: across three stars with a three point three one ERA
- 18:53Speaker 1: nineteen to one strike a walk ratio, so his strikeout
- 18:56Speaker 1: rate is actually high right now, and he's not putting
- 18:58Speaker 1: guys on base via the wall, so he's actually in
- 19:00Speaker 1: better form right now than stride or and he did.
- 19:04Speaker 1: Two of those starts are against the Mets and the Yankees,
- 19:06Speaker 1: so he did well against those two teams. The money's
- 19:10Speaker 1: coming in a Detroit. They're up for minus one of
- 19:12Speaker 1: seven of minus one point fifteen sixty percent tickets eighty
- 19:15Speaker 1: one percent of the cash on them. Based on the
- 19:18Speaker 1: current form, I mean, it's a little bit difficult to
- 19:22Speaker 1: say I completely agree with that, but based on the
- 19:24Speaker 1: current form of the starting pitching, maybe, I mean, they
- 19:28Speaker 1: really really need to win this game. I mean, the
- 19:29Speaker 1: motivation is there, and with a price like this, it's
- 19:32Speaker 1: a you're not gonna get that cheap of a price
- 19:35Speaker 1: on Detroit usually at home, So with the motivation on
- 19:39Speaker 1: their side, there is some value there. Maybe. I mean
- 19:41Speaker 1: there's still way above five hundred at home. The Braves
- 19:43Speaker 1: are way below five hundred on the road Detroit trying
- 19:47Speaker 1: to break the uh try to avoid the sweep as well,
- 19:50Speaker 1: So there are definitely some motivational angles on Detroit here.
- 19:53Speaker 1: But I worry about it, and I would I could
- 19:55Speaker 1: see going first five innings with them too, to avoid
- 19:57Speaker 1: their unrested bullpen. It's a tough handicap, man, it really is.
- 20:02Speaker 1: Detroit's bullpen has slipped, man, as you can see here.
- 20:05Speaker 1: Oh though for the audio, I'll say Detroit seventeenth and
- 20:08Speaker 1: BULLPENI are Atlanta's nineteenth. So Detroit's not that far ahead
- 20:12Speaker 1: of Atlanta as far as the bullpens are concerned, and
- 20:17Speaker 1: as far as the offense are not that far ahead either.
- 20:19Speaker 1: Detroit's twelfth and ops and Atlanta is fourteenth. So difficult
- 20:24Speaker 1: game to handicap for sure. Chicago at Cincinnati, Cubs at Cincinnati,
- 20:28Speaker 1: I'm gonna give out a play on that at the end.
- 20:31Speaker 1: Washington at the Mets. The Mets beat Washington in the
- 20:35Speaker 1: first game of this sears and lost yesterday. I believe
- 20:37Speaker 1: an extra innings brutal man Because the Mets had Nolan
- 20:41Speaker 1: McLain on the mound, they probably should have been able
- 20:43Speaker 1: to win that game. But Cake Cavali pitched weel for
- 20:45Speaker 1: Washington and battled McClain into the later parts of the game,
- 20:49Speaker 1: and then somehow some of the Mets lost against Washington's
- 20:53Speaker 1: bullpend usually You're not gonna see that happen. The Mets
- 20:55Speaker 1: need to play, man, because they're sitting in the wildcard race.
- 20:59Speaker 1: They're one game ahead of Cincinnati for the last wildcard.
- 21:02Speaker 1: Right now, the National League is a bit more stable
- 21:06Speaker 1: like the The American League is a total clusterfuck. The
- 21:10Speaker 1: National League is almost pretty much set basically. I know
- 21:13Speaker 1: the Diamondbacks are kind of still in there, and I
- 21:15Speaker 1: guess the Giants technically are, but really, I don't even
- 21:18Speaker 1: see the Diamondbacks doing it, man, I mean they sold
- 21:21Speaker 1: off of the trade deadline. It would be kind of
- 21:22Speaker 1: ridiculous that they did. Although Cleveland also did. Although Cleveland
- 21:26Speaker 1: is kind of the anti Arizona or Cleveland has no
- 21:29Speaker 1: hitting at all, and Arizona's basically all hitting and Cleveland's
- 21:32Speaker 1: bullpen is good and Arizona stinks. But here it's probably
- 21:35Speaker 1: gonna be either the Mets or the Reds, and there's
- 21:37Speaker 1: only one game separating the two. The Reds are on
- 21:40Speaker 1: fire right now and the Mets not playing particularly well
- 21:43Speaker 1: right now.
- 21:43Speaker 2: It's kind of crazy.
- 21:45Speaker 1: The Mets had a pretty big lead in that wildcard
- 21:47Speaker 1: race for a bit and they completely implode it and
- 21:49Speaker 1: blew it. It's kind of ridiculous. Jake Irvin is gonna
- 21:53Speaker 1: be pitch. Actually, let me see the bullpen usage here.
- 21:56Speaker 1: Mets do of the better bullpen. There's a lot of
- 21:58Speaker 1: bullpen usage from that game yesterday, which I think went
- 22:00Speaker 1: into extra innings. So neither bullpen is totally trustworthy. Hero
- 22:05Speaker 1: though the Mets is still a better bullpen than Washington's.
- 22:07Speaker 1: Is Mets have the better offense. Jake Irvin is pitching
- 22:11Speaker 1: for the Nats. I mean, you got to agree that
- 22:13Speaker 1: he's the worst of these two starters. Five point seven
- 22:15Speaker 1: to six ERA, one point four to three WHIP. That's
- 22:18Speaker 1: not good. Obviously. He is worse on the road six
- 22:21Speaker 1: point one five ERA hasn't been a good season for him.
- 22:24Speaker 1: Not good this month at three starts. Washington's actually lost
- 22:27Speaker 1: six starts in a row of his eight of his
- 22:29Speaker 1: last nine, they've lost this month. Nine point four two ERA,
- 22:32Speaker 1: eleven to six strikeout walk ratio. None of that is good. Obviously.
- 22:37Speaker 1: He is surprisingly pretty good against the Mets, though, in
- 22:40Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty four career bats, twenty nine to
- 22:43Speaker 1: ten strike out walk ratio is not that good. But
- 22:45Speaker 1: to twenty four batting average, six seventy eight ops allowed,
- 22:49Speaker 1: the Mets are not one of the teams that hits
- 22:51Speaker 1: him particularly well, so interesting to keep that in mind.
- 22:54Speaker 1: Although I don't know if we trust Irvin at all,
- 22:55Speaker 1: though I think his recent form being bad kind of
- 22:58Speaker 1: trumps the match numbers.
- 23:00Speaker 2: Sean and I was pitching for the Mets.
- 23:03Speaker 1: He came back from injury fairly late into the season,
- 23:07Speaker 1: so he's not going to be burned out or anything
- 23:08Speaker 1: like that. But he's allowed way too many runs so
- 23:11Speaker 1: far five point four ERA. His whip isn't too bad
- 23:14Speaker 1: one point two, so his ERRA should probably be better
- 23:16Speaker 1: than that. He is better at home so far four
- 23:18Speaker 1: point three ERA. Let me see this month, he hasn't
- 23:24Speaker 1: been very good though, six point five nine eral. Though
- 23:27Speaker 1: his strikeout walk ratio is good fifteen to two, so
- 23:30Speaker 1: his command has been good. It's very weird. I keep
- 23:32Speaker 1: talking about this with Mania or usually his problem is
- 23:34Speaker 1: he walks too many guys, Like he usually doesn't give
- 23:38Speaker 1: up a lot of hits, walks a lot of guys,
- 23:40Speaker 1: strikes out a lot of guys, and that's how he pitches.
- 23:43Speaker 1: But it's been kind of the opposite. He's been giving
- 23:45Speaker 1: up too many hits. He's allowed five home runs this month. Definitely,
- 23:48Speaker 1: that is a problem. So very strange to see his
- 23:51Speaker 1: walk number not be that high, but is the amount
- 23:54Speaker 1: of hits that he's giving up be crazy? So I
- 23:56Speaker 1: don't know, man, Manaia, He's almost turned into like bizarre
- 24:00Speaker 1: O Manaia, I don't know what else to tell you.
- 24:03Speaker 1: He's he is the opposite two different Seinfeld episodes there
- 24:08Speaker 1: being referenced. Against Washington, He's been fairly good though, in
- 24:11Speaker 1: fifty eight at bats seventeen to three strike a walk
- 24:13Speaker 1: ratio is really good. Two fifty nine average a looted
- 24:16Speaker 1: six to sixty nine oh ps. So Manaia has done
- 24:18Speaker 1: pretty well against them. Mets have the motivation here, man,
- 24:22Speaker 1: because Washington's just playing out the stretch. Washington, I mean,
- 24:25Speaker 1: they'll still be motivated for a game against the Mets though,
- 24:27Speaker 1: just because they have a chance to spoil the Mets season,
- 24:30Speaker 1: So that is a motivating factor. The Mets are just
- 24:34Speaker 1: a huge favorite though, from two fifty five to two
- 24:36Speaker 1: sixty minus two sixty on the money line, eighty nine
- 24:39Speaker 1: percent of tickets, ninety five percent of the cash. I
- 24:42Speaker 1: don't see being able to really play the Mets in
- 24:44Speaker 1: this one, man, I mean you could still argue that,
- 24:47Speaker 1: I mean, because they are the better team really kind
- 24:49Speaker 1: of across the board, there's still kind of an argument
- 24:51Speaker 1: for it. And if it's gonna be a higher scoring game,
- 24:54Speaker 1: maybe the Mets will be able to come through on
- 24:56Speaker 1: like a run line or something.
- 24:57Speaker 2: But I wouldn't want to bank on that.
- 24:59Speaker 1: The one he's coming in in the under eighty six
- 25:01Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the over eighty one percent of
- 25:02Speaker 1: the cash on the under. If I was gonna do that,
- 25:05Speaker 1: I would go first five. I don't think there's any
- 25:08Speaker 1: way you could risk the under in the full game
- 25:10Speaker 1: with bad Washington bullpend and mediocre Mets bullpen and both
- 25:14Speaker 1: not rested. So I think if you're going under, you're
- 25:17Speaker 1: really just looking at the fact that both starting pitchers
- 25:19Speaker 1: have decent matchup numbers against the opposing lineups. Maybe that
- 25:24Speaker 1: is the way to kind of look at that game
- 25:26Speaker 1: if you really have to play that game. But I
- 25:28Speaker 1: would not want to do it. Cleveland at Minnesota, I mean,
- 25:31Speaker 1: this is getting ridiculous. Minnesota. They can't even compete right now.
- 25:35Speaker 1: They've scored two runs in three games this series so far.
- 25:38Speaker 1: They scored zero in the doubleheader yesterday. Joe Ryan didn't
- 25:41Speaker 1: pitch well at all in Game one, like they look
- 25:44Speaker 1: like they're just Minnesota just looks like they don't give
- 25:46Speaker 1: a shit at all. So thank you for that, Minnesota,
- 25:49Speaker 1: thank you very much. You don't even want to spoil
- 25:51Speaker 1: the season for your divisional foe here, but maybe Minnesota
- 25:55Speaker 1: will finally show up for a game, because you gotta
- 25:58Speaker 1: be pissed if you're Minnesota. You've lost five games in
- 26:00Speaker 1: a row. You just got totally embarrassed yesterday in a
- 26:02Speaker 1: double header. I mean, come on, man. By the way,
- 26:05Speaker 1: not a lot of bullpen arms came came into the
- 26:07Speaker 1: games in the double header yesterday. You think doubleheader, you
- 26:10Speaker 1: think a lot of bullpen arms coming in. But both
- 26:12Speaker 1: games are completely out of hand, so the bullpens really
- 26:15Speaker 1: didn't get used a lot. Minnesota only had two bullpen
- 26:18Speaker 1: arms come in. Basically they just use a long relief
- 26:20Speaker 1: man in both games. Cleveland didn't really use any of
- 26:23Speaker 1: their better relievers either, so Cleveland does have the better
- 26:26Speaker 1: of these bullpends. Minnesota's bullpen is really bad. Cleveland is
- 26:31Speaker 1: still the worst offense. Their offense is terrible, which is
- 26:34Speaker 1: even more ridiculous that Cleveland is doing this. They're the
- 26:36Speaker 1: second worst offense in all of baseball ops wise, they're
- 26:40Speaker 1: worse than the White Sox and the Rockies and the Nationals.
- 26:44Speaker 1: I mean, that's ridiculous. So yeah, Minnesota has the better offense,
- 26:49Speaker 1: which is just absurd, and then we have the starting
- 26:52Speaker 1: pitching matchuper I mean, Cleveland obviously is motivated right now,
- 26:54Speaker 1: even though they again there were sellers at the trade deadline.
- 26:57Speaker 1: It seems like maybe clearing some of those guys out,
- 27:00Speaker 1: losing their closer because he was gambling on games cluss A,
- 27:04Speaker 1: it seems like that. Actually, I don't know it inspired
- 27:07Speaker 1: the team. I don't know what else to tell you,
- 27:08Speaker 1: but Cleveland is still not anywhere near as good as
- 27:11Speaker 1: the record looks. I mean, their record being this far
- 27:13Speaker 1: above five hundred, they should be way worse than that
- 27:17Speaker 1: based on based on their negative run differential. It's just insane.
- 27:20Speaker 1: Although the run differential might be positive by the end
- 27:23Speaker 1: of the season, I hope it's not. Joey Cantillo is
- 27:28Speaker 1: pitching for Cleveland in this one. He's been pretty decent
- 27:31Speaker 1: over his last couple of starts, three point two seventy
- 27:34Speaker 1: RA for him, one point three whip. His whip is
- 27:36Speaker 1: still too high. He's not a bad pitcher, though he's
- 27:39Speaker 1: been back and forth between the bullpen and the starting
- 27:41Speaker 1: rotation for them. He's been good on the road. Two
- 27:44Speaker 1: point eight to nine Roady Ray this month is a
- 27:46Speaker 1: point nine to five ERA, fifteen to four strike a
- 27:50Speaker 1: walk ratios, so he has been solid. He's only allowed
- 27:52Speaker 1: two hour runs in three starts, going at least five
- 27:56Speaker 1: innings in all three, and he faced Red Sox and
- 27:58Speaker 1: Detroit on the road and two of those starts. Did
- 28:00Speaker 1: well in those two, so those are difficult ass and
- 28:04Speaker 1: he still did that. He's allowed one or fewer and
- 28:06Speaker 1: runs down in four starts in a row. He is
- 28:10Speaker 1: pitching well right now. And against Minnesota, I mean, it's
- 28:13Speaker 1: probably not gonna be a It's probably not gonna be
- 28:15Speaker 1: a huge amount of work for him to do something
- 28:17Speaker 1: against Minnesota. They don't have good numbers against him in
- 28:19Speaker 1: twenty eight at bats, eleven to four strike a walk Racehore,
- 28:22Speaker 1: it's too many walks, but two fourteen average allowed five
- 28:26Speaker 1: ninety eight ohps. So I don't really think Minnesota is
- 28:29Speaker 1: gonna do much offensively in this game either, which I'm
- 28:32Speaker 1: not happy about this at all. And we need Cleveland
- 28:35Speaker 1: to start losing games, and our savior here needs to
- 28:38Speaker 1: be Simean Woods Richardson.
- 28:39Speaker 2: I mean, oh god, this, I can't believe this is happening.
- 28:43Speaker 1: This is so ridiculous. Woods Richardson not very good obviously
- 28:47Speaker 1: from Minnesota. Four point three to one ERA one point
- 28:49Speaker 1: three six whip is worse than what the ERA is.
- 28:52Speaker 1: I mean that whip into cases ERA should be higher.
- 28:55Speaker 1: He is good at home though, three point zero five
- 28:57Speaker 1: home ERA. Last time out in this stadium, he was
- 29:00Speaker 1: shockingly good. He shut out the Yankees for six innings,
- 29:03Speaker 1: had eleven strikeouts. He's not even a strikeout guy, and
- 29:06Speaker 1: he held them to two hits, did walk three guys.
- 29:09Speaker 1: But he was really good in that start. For whatever reason,
- 29:11Speaker 1: He's been pretty good this month, at least with a
- 29:13Speaker 1: two point eight one ERA twenty four to seven strikeout
- 29:16Speaker 1: walk ratio. If he could do that to the Yankees.
- 29:19Speaker 1: I mean, Cleveland's offense is a lot worse than the
- 29:21Speaker 1: Yankees offenses. It's like a completely different world. So maybe
- 29:26Speaker 1: Woods Richardson.
- 29:26Speaker 2: Can do well in this start.
- 29:28Speaker 1: His numbers against Cleveland are pretty good. They're only nine
- 29:31Speaker 1: for fifty off them, although four of the nine hits
- 29:33Speaker 1: our home runs I mean, these stats are ridiculous. He
- 29:36Speaker 1: sell them to a one to eighty batting average, but
- 29:38Speaker 1: the OPS is six eighty eight because of four home
- 29:41Speaker 1: runs and also six walks with thirteen strikeouts. That's too
- 29:44Speaker 1: many walks too, But it's like Richardson basically just holds
- 29:47Speaker 1: them completely off the board, except he allows a bunch
- 29:50Speaker 1: of bombs to them, and it's kind of ridiculous. But
- 29:53Speaker 1: maybe he could do well here. I would actually probably
- 29:56Speaker 1: lean to do an under in the maybe a full
- 29:59Speaker 1: game under in this. I mean, the only thing that
- 30:01Speaker 1: is bad about the full game under is the Minnesota bullpen. Uh.
- 30:05Speaker 1: If you want to go first five innings and just
- 30:06Speaker 1: go with the starting pitching, that does make sense as well.
- 30:10Speaker 1: I see fifty percent of tickets on the under and
- 30:12Speaker 1: ninety percent of the cash on the over, and the
- 30:13Speaker 1: total did flip from eight and a half juice to
- 30:15Speaker 1: the under to eight and a half juice to the over.
- 30:17Speaker 1: I don't see that. I think it's going to be
- 30:20Speaker 1: more of an under game. I mean, these offenses are
- 30:22Speaker 1: not good. I think the pitching, the matchup numbers at
- 30:24Speaker 1: least look pretty good for the starting pitchers, So I
- 30:27Speaker 1: think first five under is actually probably my preference in
- 30:30Speaker 1: this game. I mean my preference really that would be
- 30:34Speaker 1: my betting preference. But my preference as far as the
- 30:36Speaker 1: game is concerned, is Cleveland losing the game. But I
- 30:39Speaker 1: don't think that's gonna happen. The money looks like it's
- 30:40Speaker 1: coming in on Cleveland, even though they're public throughout for
- 30:43Speaker 1: minus one twelve to minus one thirty six, eighty nine
- 30:46Speaker 1: percent of tickets, ninety three percent of the cash, things
- 30:48Speaker 1: have gone so haywire that Cleveland is a road favorite
- 30:51Speaker 1: of this at this price. I mean, it's just ridiculous.
- 30:55Speaker 1: The public and it looks like professional money all joining
- 30:58Speaker 1: each other on that side. But hopefully the books went
- 31:00Speaker 1: out on that one, because the books are probably gonna
- 31:02Speaker 1: need Minnesota to come through on that one. Cleveland obviously
- 31:06Speaker 1: again does have more motivation, although again I would prod
- 31:09Speaker 1: Minnesota be like, dude, don't you want to win? Like
- 31:12Speaker 1: don't you want to spoil the season for one of
- 31:13Speaker 1: your divisional enemies here? Like come on, man, San Diego
- 31:17Speaker 1: at the Chicago White Sox. These two teams have actually
- 31:20Speaker 1: split the first two games of this series. San Diego
- 31:23Speaker 1: is still trying to get a playoff spot. But really,
- 31:26Speaker 1: San Diego, I mean I talked about that yesterday. I
- 31:28Speaker 1: think I actually gave out a lean to the White
- 31:30Speaker 1: Sox in that game yesterday. If I remember correctly, San
- 31:33Speaker 1: Diego is pretty much locked into the five seed now,
- 31:35Speaker 1: man Like it's highly unlikely. I don't think they could
- 31:38Speaker 1: really move up and overtake the Cubs. Like it's mathematically possible,
- 31:41Speaker 1: but I don't think that's gonna happen. I think there
- 31:43Speaker 1: are four games behind the Cubs, and there are four
- 31:45Speaker 1: games above whoever their nearest competitors in the wildcard. I
- 31:50Speaker 1: think I could be wrong about that, but they're like
- 31:52Speaker 1: close to being locked into that five spot in the playoffs.
- 31:55Speaker 1: So San Diego they probably have a little bit of
- 31:59Speaker 1: motivation to try to make sure that they do lock
- 32:02Speaker 1: up that spot. But I think they have less motivation
- 32:04Speaker 1: in some of these other teams that are fighting for
- 32:05Speaker 1: playoff spots. White Socks, I mean, they're just playing out
- 32:08Speaker 1: the stretch, but they do look like they're showing up
- 32:10Speaker 1: for every game at least, so you get that you're
- 32:12Speaker 1: getting effort from the White Sox down the stretch at least.
- 32:15Speaker 1: I think just because their record is just kind of
- 32:17Speaker 1: embarrassing this season. They are better than the record looks
- 32:19Speaker 1: at least, and they're kind of trying to prove that,
- 32:21Speaker 1: especially after how bad they were last season. The bullpen,
- 32:25Speaker 1: San Diego obviously has the better bullpen here some usage,
- 32:30Speaker 1: but not like insane usage for them. Over the last
- 32:33Speaker 1: couple of days. White Sox have had similar usage and
- 32:35Speaker 1: have the worst bullpen. So San Diego's got the better bullpen.
- 32:38Speaker 1: San Diego has a better offense too, even though it
- 32:40Speaker 1: hasn't been great this year. They probably should have the
- 32:44Speaker 1: better start or two with Michael King. He is good,
- 32:47Speaker 1: but I have some hesitations here A King good numbers
- 32:50Speaker 1: on the season for San Diego three point eight four ERA,
- 32:53Speaker 1: one point one to seven WHIP, but he's much much
- 32:56Speaker 1: better in San Diego's home stadium. He's actually really struggled
- 32:59Speaker 1: on the road. It is a limited sample, like you expect.
- 33:01Speaker 1: He's got to be better than this generally because he
- 33:04Speaker 1: is not a bad pitcher, but he has been bad
- 33:06Speaker 1: on the road so far the season. Six points six'
- 33:08Speaker 1: Four roadie Ra he hasn't pitched that much this. Season,
- 33:11Speaker 1: Man he's been hurt for a long. Time he got
- 33:15Speaker 1: hurt in Mid may and then he came back On,
- 33:17Speaker 1: august tried to make an appearance against The Red, sox
- 33:20Speaker 1: wasn't that, great and then maybe went back on the,
- 33:23Speaker 1: SHELF i, Think and he came back this month and
- 33:25Speaker 1: he hasn't been that. Good he had a decent start
- 33:26Speaker 1: Against cincinnati his first game, back and then he got
- 33:29Speaker 1: just bombed at The New York mets the last time,
- 33:32Speaker 1: Out so he's not in good form right. Now man
- 33:34Speaker 1: to give up eight ron, runs four home, runs ten
- 33:37Speaker 1: hits in three innings and The met's just really, ugly two,
- 33:40Speaker 1: strikeouts no. Walks his command was kind of, there but
- 33:44Speaker 1: it's kind of got to be a wait and see
- 33:46Speaker 1: approach With, King like we know what he can, do
- 33:47Speaker 1: we know he's quite, good but just his form right
- 33:51Speaker 1: now is not is not where it should, be and
- 33:54Speaker 1: they're gonna need him to be informed when the playoffs.
- 33:56Speaker 1: Start maybe he'll start getting intoformed TO i wouldn't want
- 34:00Speaker 1: to bet money on. It but The White, SOX i,
- 34:03Speaker 1: mean they're a pretty bad. Offense they only have three
- 34:05Speaker 1: hitters who've ever Seen king, before and they're zero for
- 34:07Speaker 1: eight combined with three strikeouts and no. Walks so maybe
- 34:10Speaker 1: this is the start OF i, mean this is a
- 34:12Speaker 1: good spot For king to start bouncing back man against
- 34:15Speaker 1: a weak offense that is unfamiliar with, him and the
- 34:17Speaker 1: guys that have seen him haven't done, well so he
- 34:22Speaker 1: should start doing better here. Man but, AGAIN i would
- 34:24Speaker 1: not want to put money on. It Sean burke is
- 34:27Speaker 1: pitching for The White. SOX i believe this is his rookie.
- 34:29Speaker 1: Season he's been mediocre four point two NINE, era one
- 34:33Speaker 1: point four to, seven whip good at, home three point
- 34:36Speaker 1: nine to three HOMEY. Ra they're limiting his pitches at
- 34:39Speaker 1: this point. THOUGH i, mean again he's a young. Guy
- 34:41Speaker 1: they don't really want to wreck his arm or, whatever
- 34:43Speaker 1: especially when they're not going. Anywhere so he's gotten fewer
- 34:45Speaker 1: than five innings in his last four. Outings The White
- 34:49Speaker 1: socks have lost five of his last six. OUTINGS i
- 34:52Speaker 1: think is what that. Is so they're not winning with
- 34:54Speaker 1: him on the, hill but or what is? It actually
- 34:57Speaker 1: it's four out of the last.
- 34:58Speaker 2: Five my, mistake But white SO i, mean we know
- 35:00Speaker 2: they don't win that many.
- 35:01Speaker 1: Games. BURKE i, mean he's been okay, RECENTLY i, guess
- 35:04Speaker 1: but this month in those two starts four point three TWO.
- 35:07Speaker 1: ERA i mean that's not, terrible but nine to eight
- 35:10Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio that's. Concerning that is way too many,
- 35:13Speaker 1: walks four walks in each, outing So burke has definitely
- 35:16Speaker 1: been putting too many guys on. Base San diego has
- 35:19Speaker 1: fifteen at bats against, him which isn't a, ton but
- 35:21Speaker 1: they're only one for fifteen off, him with no extra
- 35:24Speaker 1: base hits five to one strike a walk ratio sixty
- 35:27Speaker 1: seven average one ninety two. Ohps So burke has held him,
- 35:31Speaker 1: down although that was because they hadn't seen him, Yet
- 35:34Speaker 1: SO i think that means they've seen him this, YEAR
- 35:36Speaker 1: i would, imagine, right BECAUSE i don't think he pitched last.
- 35:38Speaker 1: Year AM i wrong about? That let me? See, OH
- 35:40Speaker 1: i am. Wrong he did pitch last, year SO i
- 35:43Speaker 1: don't know when that was when he pitched Against San
- 35:45Speaker 1: diego because he apparently pitched against them once. Somewhere it
- 35:48Speaker 1: must have been last, SEASON i. Guess So San, DIEGO i,
- 35:51Speaker 1: guess hasn't seen him this, year so they're still gonna
- 35:53Speaker 1: be fairly unfamiliar with. Him tough game to handicap here In,
- 35:56Speaker 1: man BECAUSE i don't know if you really want to
- 35:57Speaker 1: bank On king with his recent four or not being
- 36:00Speaker 1: Good San diego's up for minus one sixty seven of
- 36:02Speaker 1: minus one sixty eight on the money, line ninety two
- 36:05Speaker 1: percent of, tickets ninety four percent of the. Cash they're
- 36:08Speaker 1: very very, public, man SO i would not really want
- 36:10Speaker 1: to do anything With San diego. HERE i could see
- 36:12Speaker 1: arguments for an. Under both starting pitchers pretty unfamiliar to
- 36:15Speaker 1: the posing. Hitters they both have really good matchup. Numbers
- 36:18Speaker 1: at the very, least it makes sense that maybe you
- 36:21Speaker 1: don't want to include The White sox bullpen in that,
- 36:24Speaker 1: Equation so an under first five innings might be the
- 36:26Speaker 1: way to look at this. Game total is down from
- 36:28Speaker 1: eight and a half to eight eighty six percent of
- 36:30Speaker 1: tickets and seventy four percent of the cash on the,
- 36:32Speaker 1: over so the over is public with less of the
- 36:34Speaker 1: money coming in on the. Over, YEAH i mean that's
- 36:38Speaker 1: probably the way THAT i would lean in that. GAME i,
- 36:40Speaker 1: mean you're released dealing with some offenses that aren't, incredible
- 36:42Speaker 1: so On San, diego by the, way is certainly a
- 36:45Speaker 1: lot worse on the. Road i'll just point that out.
- 36:47Speaker 1: Too so if you're thinking about Playing San, DIEGO i
- 36:50Speaker 1: would probably uh, YEAH i would be a little bit
- 36:52Speaker 1: worried about doing. That for all the REASONS i stated
- 36:56Speaker 1: throughout that throughout that analysis There nate would Up, man
- 37:00Speaker 1: thanks for hanging, Out. Caprice sun should be one of
- 37:03Speaker 1: these guys' names at this, Point, Man toronto At Kansas.
- 37:06Speaker 1: City we got the first five Inning underwright in this.
- 37:08Speaker 1: Game Yesterday Kansas city won. Again So toronto's trying to
- 37:12Speaker 1: avoid a sweep Here Kansas. CITY i, mean they're not mathematically,
- 37:15Speaker 1: ELIMINATED i don't think, yet but THEY'RE i think pretty
- 37:19Speaker 1: much realizing they're out of it at this, point but
- 37:22Speaker 1: maybe they do want to show up. AGAIN i mean
- 37:23Speaker 1: they've played with effort in this. SERIES i mean they
- 37:25Speaker 1: won one of the games twenty to. One But toronto
- 37:28Speaker 1: got to be the more motivated team. HERE i, mean
- 37:30Speaker 1: they've lost four games in a. Row they're. Slipping they
- 37:32Speaker 1: could lose the, division so WHICH i told you a
- 37:35Speaker 1: few weeks, ago you could get The yankees and plus
- 37:37Speaker 1: two to eight to win The Al, east AND i
- 37:38Speaker 1: thought that was worth a, Look and then it looked
- 37:41Speaker 1: like it wasn't gonna, happen like even a few days.
- 37:43Speaker 1: Ago and now With toronto and this, skid maybe it will.
- 37:46Speaker 1: Happen toronto's locked in this. Battle, man they're trying to
- 37:49Speaker 1: win The Al. East if they don't win The Ale,
- 37:52Speaker 1: east they got to at least try to get a,
- 37:53Speaker 1: wildcard so and they're trying to avoid a sweet. Beer
- 37:56Speaker 1: so you're gonna get motivation From toronto in this. One
- 37:59Speaker 1: toronto has the way better offense Over Kansas. City Kansas
- 38:02Speaker 1: city has the better. Bullpen they didn't use too much
- 38:04Speaker 1: of their bullpen. Yesterday neither Did, toronto so both bullpens
- 38:08Speaker 1: are in decent shape in this.
- 38:09Speaker 2: Game at Least.
- 38:11Speaker 1: TORONTO i think probably has the better, starter though we
- 38:14Speaker 1: still don't know a whole lot About Trey Y, savage
- 38:17Speaker 1: who is a young. Guy he's twenty two years. Old
- 38:19Speaker 1: he's made one, start WHICH i talked. ABOUT i Like.
- 38:22Speaker 1: TAMPA i Liked toronto in that game At Tampa, bay
- 38:26Speaker 1: which was his only major league start so, far and
- 38:28Speaker 1: he was pretty. Impressive he went five. Innings that was
- 38:31Speaker 1: a hitter friendly. Park remember At Tampa bay, too it's
- 38:34Speaker 1: shaped like The, yankees Like Yankee. Stadium it is The
- 38:37Speaker 1: yankee spring training. Stadium savage went five. Innings he was pretty,
- 38:41Speaker 1: efficient especially given the fact that he had nine. Strikeouts
- 38:45Speaker 1: usually when you see a guy get a lot of.
- 38:46Speaker 1: Strikeouts their pitch count is way too. High his. Wasn't
- 38:49Speaker 1: they took him out after sixty nine, pitches so they
- 38:52Speaker 1: didn't overwork. Him he went five, innings which is probably
- 38:54Speaker 1: what they wanted him to. Do he didn't get the.
- 38:56Speaker 1: Win the team did win later in the. Game he
- 38:58Speaker 1: only allowed three, hits one, run two, walks nine. Strikeouts
- 39:02Speaker 1: LIKE i, said so pretty impressive For. YASAVAGE i, MEAN
- 39:05Speaker 1: i Hope i'm pronouncing his game, right his name. Right
- 39:08Speaker 1: it sounds. Good and he's going up against a weaker
- 39:11Speaker 1: line up here In Kansas city in a pitcher friendly.
- 39:14Speaker 1: Park so if he could do that at a hitter
- 39:15Speaker 1: friendly park against a slightly better, offense he should be
- 39:18Speaker 1: able to do well again in a pitcher friendly park
- 39:20Speaker 1: against a weaker offense Like Kansas. City SO i think
- 39:23Speaker 1: he should do well. Here you're probably only gonna get
- 39:26Speaker 1: only gonna get five innings out of him again, though
- 39:29Speaker 1: so then you do have to give way To toronto's.
- 39:31Speaker 1: Bullpen Michael waka is pitching For Kansas. City pretty good
- 39:36Speaker 1: season for. HIM i, mean he's a very experienced a,
- 39:38Speaker 1: pitcher a veteran three point seven to NINETY ra one
- 39:42Speaker 1: point two to two whip three point five to Six
- 39:44Speaker 1: homie Ra so he's been pretty good at. Home not
- 39:47Speaker 1: good in his last outing. Though actually two of his
- 39:49Speaker 1: last three outings are pretty. Rough one of them was
- 39:52Speaker 1: a second straight appearance Against, detroit, though so they kind
- 39:54Speaker 1: of got to him the next time. Out then he
- 39:56Speaker 1: pitched pretty well Against. Minnesota then he got rocked last
- 40:00Speaker 1: time out By seattle two and two thirds. Innings pitched
- 40:03Speaker 1: seven or and runs all out in this, stadium didn't
- 40:05Speaker 1: strike out. Anybody he's not really a strikeout. Guy but
- 40:08Speaker 1: obviously that is a concerning. Start but you could argue
- 40:12Speaker 1: that he was just thrown off because his schedule was thrown.
- 40:15Speaker 1: OFF i don't remember exactly what it, was but they
- 40:18Speaker 1: pushed his start, back Which i'm trying to remember what it.
- 40:22Speaker 1: Was was it paternity to leave with, Him i'm trying to.
- 40:25Speaker 1: REMEMBER i don't remember what it. Was they pushed his start.
- 40:27Speaker 1: Back so these starting, pitchers, man they usually want to
- 40:30Speaker 1: stay on, schedule even THOUGH i know he's a, veteran
- 40:34Speaker 1: so he probably should have been able to handle, that
- 40:35Speaker 1: like he's kind of used to having a schedule moved
- 40:37Speaker 1: around a little. Bit but, ANYWAY i, mean he did
- 40:40Speaker 1: pitch on longer rest than he's used, to so maybe
- 40:42Speaker 1: that did throw him. Off but he didn't do well
- 40:45Speaker 1: and he only threw forty seven, pitches so maybe that's
- 40:47Speaker 1: actually a good sign that he will come back and
- 40:49Speaker 1: pitch well here because he didn't throw that many pitches,
- 40:51Speaker 1: There he's going to be pretty rested coming into.
- 40:53Speaker 2: This toronto has decent numbers against. Im not, great but.
- 40:57Speaker 2: Decent one hundred and.
- 40:58Speaker 1: Eighteen at, bats nineteen eight eight strike a, walk ratio
- 41:01Speaker 1: of two seventy, one batting average, allowed seven thirty three. Ops,
- 41:05Speaker 1: uh so he's done mediocre Against.
- 41:08Speaker 2: Toronto, YEAH i, know.
- 41:10Speaker 1: Dude, florida they were in that game though they were.
- 41:12Speaker 1: Down they were down six with four minutes. Left, Man,
- 41:15Speaker 1: uh they could have covered. THAT i thought they were
- 41:17Speaker 1: the right. SIDE i thought that was my Handicap. Missouri
- 41:21Speaker 1: missouri wasn't that. Easy he wasn't on the money. LINE
- 41:24Speaker 1: i had that game on over here and it was.
- 41:25Speaker 1: Close how much did they win? By they definitely didn't,
- 41:27Speaker 1: Cover so that game was, YEAH i mean, YEAH i
- 41:32Speaker 1: mean you got your Parlay. Man. Yeah. Canes i'm not
- 41:35Speaker 1: a huge fan of The, canes to be, honest not
- 41:36Speaker 1: That i'm a huge fan Of florida, Either but, YEAH
- 41:40Speaker 1: i MEAN i Thought florida was the right side to
- 41:41Speaker 1: cover in that. GAME i didn't really. THINK i didn't
- 41:44Speaker 1: necessarily think they were gonna win that. GAME i thought
- 41:45Speaker 1: they had a decent chance to win the. Game their
- 41:48Speaker 1: offense just, failed. Dude like their defense showed up in the,
- 41:51Speaker 1: game held That miami offense pretty much in, check which
- 41:54Speaker 1: is what you want when you're playing an underdog like.
- 41:56Speaker 1: THAT i thought it was the right spot to do. It,
- 41:59Speaker 1: YEAH i mean that's just the way that it. Is,
- 42:01Speaker 1: man you got your. Parlay?
- 42:03Speaker 2: Yeah what else CAN i?
- 42:05Speaker 1: Say?
- 42:05Speaker 2: Man your parlay was definitely a.
- 42:07Speaker 1: Winner All. Right we Got milwaukee At Saint louis. Here
- 42:14Speaker 1: Saint louis won the first game of this seeries lost
- 42:16Speaker 1: yesterday by one. Run. Milwaukee they're still trying to show
- 42:20Speaker 1: up because they're still trying to get home field throughout
- 42:22Speaker 1: the playoffs Because philadelphia is threatening. THEM i Think milwaukee's
- 42:26Speaker 1: two or three games ahead Of philadelphia right. Now Saint
- 42:29Speaker 1: louis they're just playing out the. Stretch but this is
- 42:31Speaker 1: this is a series that they will show up for
- 42:33Speaker 1: because It's milwaukee coming into their, place so they have
- 42:37Speaker 1: a chance to play against the top team in the,
- 42:38Speaker 1: division so that is a motivating factor. Here Saint louis
- 42:42Speaker 1: still has the better of the two bullpens out of
- 42:44Speaker 1: the two. Teams didn't use a ton of it. Yesterday
- 42:46Speaker 1: milwaukee not a ton of usage, either, really But Saint
- 42:49Speaker 1: louis does get the bullpen. Edge milwaukee has the better.
- 42:52Speaker 1: Offense milwaukee a better offense on the road To Freddie
- 42:56Speaker 1: peralta is listened as a starter here BY, espn but
- 42:59Speaker 1: he is not actually. Starter milwaukee is pulling a surprise
- 43:02Speaker 1: on us here and the starter will actually Be Robert.
- 43:05Speaker 1: GASSER i don't know it, was. MAN i could make
- 43:10Speaker 1: some jokes here that'll probably get my channel. NUKED i
- 43:12Speaker 1: don't know IF i want to do. That Maybe i'll
- 43:14Speaker 1: just make fart jokes. Instead oh my. God but, Yeah
- 43:19Speaker 1: gasser is gonna be getting the start here From. Milwaukee
- 43:23Speaker 1: i'm gonna look him up because he's not even On
- 43:25Speaker 1: milwaukee's roster ON espn right now because they think they
- 43:28Speaker 1: just brought him back. Up uh, so, Yeah, paralto he's
- 43:33Speaker 1: probably gonna have his start moved. BACK i Mean, Milwaukee,
- 43:37Speaker 1: like you better hope if you're A milwaukee, fan The
- 43:39Speaker 1: paralta does not hurt because he's you need him in
- 43:41Speaker 1: the starting rotation when it comes to playoff.
- 43:44Speaker 2: Time, GASSER i, mean he's.
- 43:45Speaker 1: Pretty under the radar. Though he's a pretty good starting.
- 43:48Speaker 1: PITCHER i don't know if he throws gas like a
- 43:50Speaker 1: high heat, FASTBALL i don't. Know but last YEAR i
- 43:53Speaker 1: believe it was the only time he pitched in the.
- 43:54Speaker 1: Majors he made five starts For milwaukee last year and
- 43:57Speaker 1: he was pretty. Good two point five seventy point zero four.
- 44:00Speaker 1: WHIP i mean that is definitely. Good you can't really
- 44:04Speaker 1: fault him for anything that he. Did, really he had
- 44:05Speaker 1: sixteen strikeouts in only one walk last, year so he
- 44:08Speaker 1: had really good. Command his strikeout rate wasn't, high so
- 44:11Speaker 1: it makes me think he's not a guy who actually
- 44:13Speaker 1: throws gas because that was in twenty eight. Innings but
- 44:16Speaker 1: still he allowed very few base, runners very few, runs
- 44:19Speaker 1: so he was. Good so Gas or will be their
- 44:22Speaker 1: starting pitcher. HERE i think he might do well. Again,
- 44:25Speaker 1: man he might be pumped to get back out. There
- 44:27Speaker 1: he's in a major in a major league rotation again
- 44:32Speaker 1: on a contending. TEAM i think he might be excited
- 44:34Speaker 1: to be pumped about. It he gets to face a
- 44:35Speaker 1: weak line up here In Saint. Louis Saint louis did face,
- 44:39Speaker 1: HIM i guess last, year and they're only one for
- 44:41Speaker 1: eleven off, him no extra base, hits three, strikeouts no.
- 44:44Speaker 1: Walk so he completely Silenced Saint louis last year when
- 44:48Speaker 1: they saw, him and he might be able to do
- 44:49Speaker 1: it again because they haven't seen him in so, Long
- 44:52Speaker 1: SO i actually Think gaser might come out and do
- 44:54Speaker 1: pretty well. Here Saint louis Has Matthew libratory pitching mediocre
- 44:59Speaker 1: season for, him four point THREE, era one point three
- 45:02Speaker 1: to ONE. Whip he is a little bit better at
- 45:04Speaker 1: home four point EIGHTY r at. Home he's in decent this,
- 45:07Speaker 1: month four point one to ONE era across three, starts
- 45:10Speaker 1: fourteen to five strike at walk. Ratio had one bad
- 45:13Speaker 1: outing At, seattle whatever the hell that, was but he
- 45:15Speaker 1: was good at, home and his two starts at home
- 45:17Speaker 1: this season against decent lineups in The a's And, Cincinnati
- 45:21Speaker 1: so he's in alright form right. Now and he does
- 45:23Speaker 1: actually pitch well against The brewers in forty eight at,
- 45:26Speaker 1: bats ten to seven strike a walk ratio is. Bad
- 45:29Speaker 1: that's really his only bad stat against him is that walk.
- 45:31Speaker 1: Number because he otherwise he's done. Well he's held him
- 45:33Speaker 1: to a one to eighty eight batting average five twenty.
- 45:36Speaker 1: Ops that's pretty good against a Strong Milwaukee brewer line up.
- 45:40Speaker 1: Here SO i think it's a first five under in this, game.
- 45:44Speaker 1: MAN i, MEAN i guess you could maybe go full
- 45:46Speaker 1: game under on this one. Too unders make sense to
- 45:49Speaker 1: me in this. GAME i wouldn't really want to try
- 45:50Speaker 1: to go With. MILWAUKEE i, mean they're a very public
- 45:52Speaker 1: road favorite up for minus one thirty two to minus
- 45:54Speaker 1: one thirty, five ninety one percent, tickets ninety five percent
- 45:57Speaker 1: of the cash on. Them don't love that seventy five
- 46:01Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the, under ninety seven percent of
- 46:03Speaker 1: the cash on the. Under in the total has dropped
- 46:04Speaker 1: a little bit from nine to eight and a, half
- 46:07Speaker 1: so you've missed the best number there on that under
- 46:08Speaker 1: on the nine and a, half excuse, me on the.
- 46:11Speaker 1: Nine you want to get the key number of nine
- 46:13Speaker 1: if you, can because it is a key. Number it's
- 46:15Speaker 1: how you break the four to four.
- 46:16Speaker 2: Tie BUT i.
- 46:17Speaker 1: Still think under or under in the first five innings
- 46:20Speaker 1: makes sense in this. Game and whether you go first
- 46:22Speaker 1: five or full game really depends on how good are these.
- 46:24Speaker 1: Bullpens butlwaggie's actually pretty good again. Though they're ninth in
- 46:27Speaker 1: bullpenny array, again so they've come back to. Life bullpen,
- 46:31Speaker 1: Wise Saint louis still sitting at seventh in bullpenny, array
- 46:34Speaker 1: SO i guess you could go full game under on that,
- 46:37Speaker 1: one especially if you see any nine still sitting out.
- 46:39Speaker 1: There that's probably the WAY i would look at that.
- 46:41Speaker 1: Game miami At, Texas this is brutal For. Texas. Man
- 46:46Speaker 1: texas has lost six games in a. Row they're, Done
- 46:49Speaker 1: they're not gonna make the. Playoffs, yeah so they're just
- 46:52Speaker 1: playing out the stretch. Now The you kinda think they
- 46:55Speaker 1: should be motivated, though because it's just embarrassing to lose
- 46:57Speaker 1: a home series to The Miami. MARLINS i, mean and
- 47:00Speaker 1: that's gonna happen if they lose this. Game miami's on
- 47:02Speaker 1: a hot. Streak they won five games in a. Row,
- 47:04Speaker 1: theyugh granted the first three we're all Against, colorado but
- 47:07Speaker 1: they weren't on the. Road So miami is still showing
- 47:10Speaker 1: up for these games even though they don't really have
- 47:12Speaker 1: anything to play. For texas has the better, bullpen a
- 47:15Speaker 1: bullpen usage pretty low for. Them miami a little bit
- 47:20Speaker 1: more bullpen usage from, them So texas does have a bullpen.
- 47:23Speaker 1: Edge miami has the better offense of the two Because
- 47:25Speaker 1: texas offense is pretty. Bad both these teams have not
- 47:29Speaker 1: very good, offenses which might play into probably the way
- 47:33Speaker 1: That i'm leaning this. Game Juri perez is pitching From.
- 47:36Speaker 1: Miami very talented young. PITCHER i, mean he's had some
- 47:39Speaker 1: stretches where he's been really, awful and he's trying to
- 47:41Speaker 1: come back FROM i think he Had Tommy john surgerw
- 47:44Speaker 1: and he was like twenty one years, old which is
- 47:46Speaker 1: really really. Crazy he came, back he started pitching really well.
- 47:49Speaker 1: Again he actually was in the majors when he was
- 47:52Speaker 1: like twenty before he got. Injured he was really good back,
- 47:55Speaker 1: then and he's starting to show some signs of returning to.
- 47:58Speaker 1: That his numbers this year, terrible four point FOUR era not,
- 48:02Speaker 1: great but one point zero six whip indicates that HIS
- 48:04Speaker 1: era should be better than. That he's been pretty. Good
- 48:07Speaker 1: he is not as good on the road, though five
- 48:09Speaker 1: point seven to seven ROAD, era but this is a
- 48:11Speaker 1: pitcher friendly park in a weak, offense so he might
- 48:14Speaker 1: do well. HERE i mean his last start was on
- 48:15Speaker 1: the road at course field in high. Elevation he dominated
- 48:18Speaker 1: them only for five. Innings they didn't overextend him in that,
- 48:22Speaker 1: game but he one hit them through five, innings six,
- 48:24Speaker 1: strikeouts no, Walks so after a stretcher he was really.
- 48:27Speaker 1: Bad he's kind of returned to form a little. Bit
- 48:30Speaker 1: he does have a fifteen to one strike up walk
- 48:32Speaker 1: race here this month six point one FOUR. Era is
- 48:34Speaker 1: still not good because he got lit up by The
- 48:37Speaker 1: nationals in the first game this, month but the last two,
- 48:40Speaker 1: starts including a second straight start Against, washington he's been
- 48:43Speaker 1: much better, again not walking anybody and striking out thirteen
- 48:48Speaker 1: and allowing only three combined. RUNS i know those offenses
- 48:51Speaker 1: are Bad colorado And, washington But texas's offense is not
- 48:54Speaker 1: that much. Better And texas really is not familiar With.
- 48:58Speaker 1: Perez they only have two Hitters i've ever seen him
- 49:00Speaker 1: before in they're zero for three with two strikeouts against,
- 49:03Speaker 1: Him berger And, Taes So perez does have an unfamiliarity
- 49:07Speaker 1: edge here as. Well when you got a, young talented
- 49:09Speaker 1: pitcher like this against a pretty weak offense and that
- 49:12Speaker 1: offense has never seen it, before they might struggle to
- 49:14Speaker 1: figure him. Out SO i Think perez should do well
- 49:17Speaker 1: in this, game and he's going up Against Merrill, kelly
- 49:19Speaker 1: Who texas got From arizona at the trade. Deadline he's
- 49:22Speaker 1: had a good season three point four to SIX, era
- 49:25Speaker 1: one point one. Whip he's in better at home between
- 49:29Speaker 1: pitchy With, arizona who have a hitter friendly, ballpark and
- 49:32Speaker 1: With texas combined three point two SEVEN era at, home
- 49:36Speaker 1: that's pretty.
- 49:36Speaker 2: Good he's been good With.
- 49:38Speaker 1: Texas he's allowed to more than three on runs only,
- 49:42Speaker 1: twice although one of those was his last start Against,
- 49:44Speaker 1: houston and that was a very crucial game For texas
- 49:48Speaker 1: and he blew it, Man SO i don't know what
- 49:49Speaker 1: his mindset is going to be here coming into this.
- 49:51Speaker 1: Game that was a huge game and he blew. It
- 49:54Speaker 1: so he wasn't good in that when he went three,
- 49:56Speaker 1: innings allowed six earned runs Against. Houston he's still been
- 50:00Speaker 1: fairly good overall this month, though and that was a
- 50:03Speaker 1: second start in three starts Against, houston So houston had
- 50:06Speaker 1: just seen. Him SO i think they were just used to.
- 50:08Speaker 1: Him they were familiar with what he was gonna throw at,
- 50:10Speaker 1: them and they beat him up in the next. GAME
- 50:12Speaker 1: i think is probably what, happened because he pitched well
- 50:14Speaker 1: Against houston the start prior to, that and then Against.
- 50:17Speaker 1: Milwaukee he was okay in the start between the, two
- 50:19Speaker 1: except he allowed too many. Hits so, yeah he. IS
- 50:22Speaker 1: i guess he's fading a little. Bit he's not in
- 50:24Speaker 1: the greatest forum right, now but he still does have
- 50:25Speaker 1: a fourteen to fourteen to two strike a walk ratio this,
- 50:29Speaker 1: month and he's stepping down in class against This miami.
- 50:32Speaker 1: Offense this will be the weakest offense that he faced
- 50:34Speaker 1: Since cleveland On august twenty, fourth so he might do
- 50:38Speaker 1: well in this. One miami has not done well against
- 50:41Speaker 1: him in the past and thirty one at bats thirteen
- 50:43Speaker 1: to two strike a walk ratio one ninety four average
- 50:46Speaker 1: allowed five thirty three, ohps So i'm expecting an under
- 50:50Speaker 1: in this. GAME i JUST i do worry About kelly's
- 50:53Speaker 1: mental state. Though. Man texas has taking the money, though
- 50:56Speaker 1: even though they're down for minus one twenty eight to
- 50:58Speaker 1: minus one twenty three here a fifty eight percent of
- 51:01Speaker 1: tickets seventy five percent of cash On, texas so the
- 51:03Speaker 1: money is coming Into texas. HERE i don't know IF
- 51:07Speaker 1: i could quite do it, Though Man Merril kelly, again
- 51:10Speaker 1: just the magnitude of that last start was JUST i
- 51:12Speaker 1: don't know how it's going to affect. Him he could
- 51:14Speaker 1: be mad and bounce back here and want to pitch really,
- 51:16Speaker 1: well or he could be like kind of defeated and
- 51:19Speaker 1: come out and not pitch. WELL i could see both
- 51:21Speaker 1: being the. Case very hard to, handicap BUT i think
- 51:24Speaker 1: an under maybe is worth a look. Here but the
- 51:26Speaker 1: money's coming in on the, over seventy one percent of
- 51:29Speaker 1: tickets are on the, under seventy two percent of cash
- 51:31Speaker 1: on the. OVER i don't see it total sitting at
- 51:34Speaker 1: seven and a half pretty heavily juice to the. Under
- 51:36Speaker 1: so probably be an under. SEVEN i know there's not
- 51:38Speaker 1: a whole lot of leeway, there and if you're playing the,
- 51:40Speaker 1: under you are kind of banking On kelly to pitch
- 51:42Speaker 1: at least decently in this. Game BUT i certainly that
- 51:45Speaker 1: that's the way THAT i think about the game, Though like,
- 51:48Speaker 1: UH i think that's the way THAT i see the
- 51:49Speaker 1: game playing, out would be to the. Under But i'm
- 51:51Speaker 1: not going to give out a play on. That, Jerome
- 51:54Speaker 1: what's up? MAN? Nfl on Screen VARIETY? Tv, Interesting, okay
- 51:59Speaker 1: so we have some, ads some, Advertising, dude CAN i
- 52:03Speaker 1: get a let's get a, sponsorship. Man let's let's get
- 52:06Speaker 1: let's get some some sponsorship money coming. In we get
- 52:08Speaker 1: The we're getting ads, now, Man i'm so big. Time
- 52:11Speaker 1: we get ads now in our comments on? YouTube how about?
- 52:14Speaker 1: THAT i don't even know if that if that's a real, thing,
- 52:18Speaker 1: Man BUT i guess it's worth looking. Into Maybe anaheim At.
- 52:23Speaker 1: Colorado AS i keep, saying this is the ugliest series
- 52:26Speaker 1: that's going on right. Now both these teams are out of.
- 52:28Speaker 1: It they both have terrible. Bullpens yesterday was pretty low,
- 52:32Speaker 1: scoring Though anaheim won three to. Nothing. Yesterday trout hit
- 52:36Speaker 1: his four hundredth career home run, YESTERDAY i, guess in
- 52:38Speaker 1: front of probably a pretty empty, stadium hit a huge
- 52:43Speaker 1: bomb in high elevation out. There, yeah both bullpens. SUCK
- 52:47Speaker 1: i don't even know if it really matters what the
- 52:49Speaker 1: bullpen usage. Is wasn't very high on either, side BUT
- 52:53Speaker 1: i still don't trust either. Bullpen, Obviously anaheim has the
- 52:56Speaker 1: better offense of these, two even Though colorado is a
- 52:59Speaker 1: little bit better offensively at. Home Cayden dana is pitching For.
- 53:03Speaker 1: Anaheim he's really. YOUNG i Think anaheim just stupidly rushed
- 53:07Speaker 1: him to The majors, man because he's been, really really
- 53:10Speaker 1: not doing well here in HIS i believe this is
- 53:12Speaker 1: his first season to the, majors BUT i think they
- 53:15Speaker 1: just brought him up too quickly BECAUSE i think he's, Better,
- 53:18Speaker 1: LIKE i think he has more talent than his numbers would.
- 53:20Speaker 1: Show but his numbers are awful right, now SO i
- 53:22Speaker 1: don't think you'd trust him at. All seven point four
- 53:24Speaker 1: or FIVE, era one point eighty six whip that's not.
- 53:27Speaker 1: GOOD a little bit better on the road six point
- 53:30Speaker 1: two to THREE, roadira but this is his course, field
- 53:33Speaker 1: so it might be a little bit difficult out of
- 53:34Speaker 1: pitching this. Stadium his walk numbers have been too. High
- 53:37Speaker 1: his strikeout number is actually pretty good on the season
- 53:40Speaker 1: in this month seventeen strikeouts and thirteen to third, innings
- 53:43Speaker 1: but nine.
- 53:44Speaker 2: Walks that's not going to cut.
- 53:45Speaker 1: It. Man he's failed to go five innings in all
- 53:47Speaker 1: but one of his outings so. Far he's made five
- 53:49Speaker 1: starts so far seven point four to THREE era this.
- 53:52Speaker 2: Month, yeah it's not.
- 53:54Speaker 1: Good, so even though The rockies haven't faced him, BEFORE
- 53:56Speaker 1: i don't expect much out Of dana, here even though
- 53:58Speaker 1: he should have a little bit of an because they
- 54:00Speaker 1: haven't seen it. Before Kyle freeland is pitching For, colorado
- 54:03Speaker 1: and when WHEN i ever say That colorado's starting pitcher
- 54:06Speaker 1: is the better of the two or the more trustworth
- 54:08Speaker 1: the other. TWO i think he, is though right now
- 54:10Speaker 1: he's at least more. Established he's not the worst starter
- 54:14Speaker 1: for The. Rockies five point one FOUR, era one point
- 54:16Speaker 1: four to seven. WHIP i, MEAN i know those numbers
- 54:18Speaker 1: still aren't. Good he struggles in course field to six
- 54:21Speaker 1: point one four HOMEY. Ra. Here he's been okay this
- 54:27Speaker 1: month with a four point one to NINETY ra sixteen
- 54:30Speaker 1: to two strikeout walk. Ratios his command has been there this.
- 54:32Speaker 1: Month he's actually been somewhat decent this. Month but he
- 54:37Speaker 1: had one good home start though Against San, diego really
- 54:40Speaker 1: good start and eight and he shut out with ten,
- 54:42Speaker 1: strikeouts no, walks two. Hits that's really where a lot
- 54:44Speaker 1: of those numbers are coming from this. Month last time
- 54:46Speaker 1: out of this, stadium he didn't do well Against. Miami
- 54:49Speaker 1: he gave up six or in, runs one, strikeout one.
- 54:52Speaker 1: Walk pretty unimpressive. Performance SO i don't think he's still
- 54:55Speaker 1: IN i still don't think he's in great form. Here
- 54:58Speaker 1: his numbers are pretty good Against, anaheim, though in seventy
- 55:00Speaker 1: three at bats twenty five to eleven starting a walk
- 55:02Speaker 1: ratio too many, walks but seven of them are tailor
- 55:06Speaker 1: for whatever, reason so really it's just one guy getting
- 55:09Speaker 1: all the, walks and three of them are, trout so
- 55:11Speaker 1: most of these guys don't have any walks against. Him
- 55:14Speaker 1: two h five batting average allowed and seven oh seven,
- 55:18Speaker 1: ops so he's overall not bad Against. Anaheim SO i
- 55:22Speaker 1: actually THINK i would probably lean To colorado in this.
- 55:25Speaker 1: Game colorado is a. Favorite, actually they flip from plus
- 55:29Speaker 1: one oh three to minus one. Twelve we Know anaheim
- 55:31Speaker 1: is pretty. Bad they have the worst run differential in
- 55:33Speaker 1: The American. League COLORADO'S i think is the worst in.
- 55:36Speaker 1: Baseball But colorado's getting the money sixty percent tickets eighty
- 55:40Speaker 1: two percent of the cash on. Them i'd probably agree with.
- 55:43Speaker 1: THAT i Think freeland probably can outpitch dana. Here the
- 55:46Speaker 1: bullpens are both such a mess THAT i don't know
- 55:48Speaker 1: if one is advantageous over the. Other if you, DON'T
- 55:52Speaker 1: i mean not trusting either, bullpen you might want to
- 55:54Speaker 1: just go to the first five innings because it's easier
- 55:56Speaker 1: to kind of handicap that kind of handicap that and
- 55:59Speaker 1: go With freeland to Outpitch dana first five inning play
- 56:02Speaker 1: might make sense. There philadelphia At, Arizona arizona's got to
- 56:06Speaker 1: keep playing man because they're actually in the wildcard. Race
- 56:09Speaker 1: AS i showed, you the teams will split the first
- 56:12Speaker 1: two games of this, series With arizona winning. Yesterday both
- 56:15Speaker 1: bullpens are pretty, Bad arizonas is. Worse not a lot
- 56:18Speaker 1: of bullpend usage yesterday though from either. Side so the
- 56:22Speaker 1: bullpens are fairly intact, here BUT i don't really trust.
- 56:25Speaker 1: Them both teams can hit. WELL i Think philadelphia has
- 56:29Speaker 1: the slightly better, offense but on the road maybe you
- 56:33Speaker 1: tip it To arizona just. Slightly but really both offenses
- 56:35Speaker 1: they're pretty much. Equal starting Pitching Ronyr. SUAREZ i, mean
- 56:40Speaker 1: on the, surface he looks like the way better starter
- 56:42Speaker 1: of the two. Here he has the way better numbers this.
- 56:44Speaker 1: Year he's been impressive this, year two point eight FOUR
- 56:47Speaker 1: era one point one to seven win For. Philadelphia he's
- 56:51Speaker 1: actually better on the road to two point two to Five.
- 56:53Speaker 1: Roadira this is a hitter friendly, ballpark but he's been.
- 56:56Speaker 1: Good over his last five, outings he has allowed three
- 56:59Speaker 1: or earned runs and up until his most recent, start
- 57:02Speaker 1: it was one or zero earned, runs and all of.
- 57:05Speaker 1: Them his team has won six starts in a row
- 57:08Speaker 1: of his and that most recent start where he gave
- 57:10Speaker 1: up three on runs was at The, Dodgers so are
- 57:12Speaker 1: you really gonna knock him for? That probably. Not five,
- 57:15Speaker 1: strikeouts two walks and that one's six innings, pitch still
- 57:18Speaker 1: a good start from.
- 57:19Speaker 2: Him he's in good form right.
- 57:20Speaker 1: Now one point five era too many walks, though twenty one,
- 57:23Speaker 1: strikeouts seven walks this, month so his walk numbers have
- 57:27Speaker 1: gone up a little bit from what they were the previous.
- 57:28Speaker 1: Month and again that's kind of his thing WHERE i
- 57:31Speaker 1: talked about how last YEAR i thought he was gonna
- 57:33Speaker 1: regress a, bit which he, did and it's kind of
- 57:36Speaker 1: the walk numbers that are what does.
- 57:37Speaker 2: It this year hasn't really been the, case though.
- 57:42Speaker 1: He still has continued to be pretty, good and, he's,
- 57:45Speaker 1: however not good Against, arizona though in eighty six at,
- 57:48Speaker 1: bats thirteen to five strike a walk ratio three eighty
- 57:51Speaker 1: four average allowed him it's nine to seventy six oh.
- 57:54Speaker 1: Ps vargas has really dominated. Him both home runs that
- 57:57Speaker 1: they've hit were From, vargas but a few of them
- 58:00Speaker 1: hit us really do damage against. Him So suarez does
- 58:03Speaker 1: not match up well Against, Arizona so that's something to
- 58:05Speaker 1: keep in. Mind arizona might have a little bit more
- 58:08Speaker 1: motivation here Because, PHILLY i, mean they've Already i'm pretty
- 58:11Speaker 1: sure clinched their. Division they are still fighting to maybe
- 58:13Speaker 1: get the one seed, overall but they have less to
- 58:17Speaker 1: play for here Than arizona does Because arizona could actually
- 58:20Speaker 1: make the. Playoffs that's what they're fighting, for to make
- 58:22Speaker 1: the playoffs at, all Or philadelphia's kind of almost locked
- 58:26Speaker 1: into that number two. SEED i think at this, point
- 58:29Speaker 1: E rod is pitching For anna For arizona here At Dwardo.
- 58:32Speaker 1: Rodriguez he hasn't really been that good since he Had
- 58:36Speaker 1: Tommy john. Surgery this season hasn't been that. Good five
- 58:39Speaker 1: point one TWO era and a really bad one point
- 58:42Speaker 1: five to six. Whip he's some worse at home to
- 58:44Speaker 1: five point five SIX era here in this hitter friendly
- 58:47Speaker 1: ballpark this, month three point one TWO era is pretty,
- 58:52Speaker 1: solid but too many walks twelve to five strikeout walk.
- 58:55Speaker 1: Ratio his team has won four starts in a row
- 58:58Speaker 1: of his, though and they've actually won eight of his
- 58:59Speaker 1: last nine starts behind, him even though he hasn't pitched
- 59:02Speaker 1: that well in some of those, starts so he's getting
- 59:05Speaker 1: a lot of offensive support behind, him a lot of run.
- 59:07Speaker 1: Support he's been okay overall this month, though but his
- 59:10Speaker 1: most recent start wasn't very good in this stadium Against San.
- 59:14Speaker 1: Francisco he did a lot five on, runs but it
- 59:16Speaker 1: was his second straight start Against San, francisco so they
- 59:18Speaker 1: had just seen him and he'd shut them, out i,
- 59:21Speaker 1: think on the road in the previous, starts so they
- 59:24Speaker 1: had a little bit of revenge. Motivation they were a
- 59:26Speaker 1: little bit more familiar with. Him so maybe you can
- 59:27Speaker 1: kind of explain that his numbers are not horrible Against.
- 59:30Speaker 1: Philadelphia in sixty eight at bats twenty seven to eight
- 59:33Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio two twenty one average allowed the
- 59:36Speaker 1: ops is, high though eight seventeen. Ops he's allowed five
- 59:39Speaker 1: home runs to, them including two From, Kepler but he
- 59:43Speaker 1: does have the better matchup, Numbers so on the, surface
- 59:46Speaker 1: it looks Like suarez should just dominate this pitching, matchup
- 59:49Speaker 1: but when you dig into the, numbers it doesn't look that,
- 59:51Speaker 1: way And arizona has more to play for and you're
- 59:54Speaker 1: getting them as a home. Underdog SO i would actually
- 59:56Speaker 1: lean To arizona in this. GAME i mean, YEAH i,
- 1:00:01Speaker 1: MEAN i guess include the Bull bends maybe, too BECAUSE i,
- 1:00:03Speaker 1: mean part of the handicap is That arizona's gonna put
- 1:00:06Speaker 1: in a full game of effort here to try to
- 1:00:07Speaker 1: get the. Win so eighty five percent of tickets only
- 1:00:10Speaker 1: sixty seven percent of the cash On, philly they're up
- 1:00:13Speaker 1: for minus one to, fifteen minus one to twenty, Three
- 1:00:15Speaker 1: so you are getting a pretty decent price On Arizona
- 1:00:17Speaker 1: philly's public and less of the money coming in on.
- 1:00:19Speaker 1: Them so a little bit of a contrarian approach in that.
- 1:00:22Speaker 1: One San francisco at The. Dodgers dodgers have won the
- 1:00:26Speaker 1: first two games of the three games this year is excusely.
- 1:00:28Speaker 1: Sound they're on the verge of a four game Sweep San.
- 1:00:31Speaker 1: Francisco they're not going to make the. Playoffs, man they
- 1:00:34Speaker 1: might show up for this game, though because it is
- 1:00:36Speaker 1: against The. Dodgers still a big series for both. Teams
- 1:00:40Speaker 1: dodgers maybe take their foot off the gas a little
- 1:00:43Speaker 1: bit here because they have a four game lead Over
- 1:00:45Speaker 1: San diego now in the, division so they're getting close
- 1:00:48Speaker 1: to having the division clinched. Here so a little bit
- 1:00:51Speaker 1: less urgency for The dodgers right now after this recent,
- 1:00:53Speaker 1: stretch but they aren't a win, streak and sometimes win
- 1:00:56Speaker 1: streaks they're difficult to. Snap cisco will. Try, Obviously San
- 1:01:01Speaker 1: francisco has the better bullpen out of these. Two that's
- 1:01:03Speaker 1: really where their advantage lies between these two. Teams but
- 1:01:07Speaker 1: they did use four relievers. Yesterday dodgers did use. Five
- 1:01:11Speaker 1: it looks, like so still you give the, bullpen it's
- 1:01:13Speaker 1: Just Sar. Francisco dodgers obviously have the way better. Offense
- 1:01:17Speaker 1: that's not even. Close as far as the starting, pitching
- 1:01:20Speaker 1: his Concern trevor McDonald's pitching For San. Francisco he's, young
- 1:01:26Speaker 1: AND i don't know what we're gonna get on. Him.
- 1:01:27Speaker 1: Man he made one appearance last year out of the.
- 1:01:29Speaker 1: Bullpen it was he went three, innings didn't allow any,
- 1:01:32Speaker 1: runs had one strike, out one. Walk not a whole
- 1:01:36Speaker 1: lot you could take away from. THAT i looked at
- 1:01:38Speaker 1: his scouting and he seems like he's kind of he's
- 1:01:40Speaker 1: a pretty highly touted, prospect but kind of like a
- 1:01:42Speaker 1: work in. Progress he's got kind of like a fastball,
- 1:01:45Speaker 1: mix like fastball two seamer THAT i guess is kind
- 1:01:48Speaker 1: of more of like a sinker and THEN i guess
- 1:01:51Speaker 1: slider and change. UP i think it's kind of what
- 1:01:53Speaker 1: his mix. Is but it looks like he's still kind
- 1:01:55Speaker 1: of working things. Out has potential though this. Season he's
- 1:01:59Speaker 1: made one, appearance went two winnings At arizona and gave
- 1:02:03Speaker 1: up two earned. Runs and that's a difficult. Assignment they're
- 1:02:06Speaker 1: a good, offense difficult part to. Pitching but he wasn't really.
- 1:02:08Speaker 1: Good he gave up three, hits one, strike got one.
- 1:02:10Speaker 1: Walk so we'll see what he does in this. Game
- 1:02:13Speaker 1: The dodgers have never seen it. BEFORE i don't know
- 1:02:15Speaker 1: If i'd put a whole lot of trust in, him
- 1:02:17Speaker 1: but he is a decent young pitcher at least who's
- 1:02:19Speaker 1: unfamiliar to The, dodgers so he might have a little
- 1:02:22Speaker 1: bit of an advantage earlier. On but this is a
- 1:02:23Speaker 1: tough lineup to face man and he's going up against
- 1:02:26Speaker 1: a more proven young pitcher And Emmett, shehan who's looking
- 1:02:30Speaker 1: quite good at this point this season for The dodgers
- 1:02:32Speaker 1: three point one SEVEN, era one point six whip really
- 1:02:36Speaker 1: good at home to two point two to ONE era
- 1:02:38Speaker 1: at home this. Month he is a two point eighty
- 1:02:41Speaker 1: ra twenty two to six strike out walk. Ratio his
- 1:02:45Speaker 1: two starts at, home he was really good Against colorado And.
- 1:02:48Speaker 1: Philadelphia good, command, numbers GOOD. Era his last start last
- 1:02:53Speaker 1: month was a shutout Against, cincinnati also at, home so
- 1:02:56Speaker 1: he's starting to find his. Groove he's pitching well at. Home,
- 1:02:59Speaker 1: uh this is a pretty Week San francisco. Lineup San
- 1:03:01Speaker 1: francisco has seen him, before but he's done well against.
- 1:03:04Speaker 1: Them in seventeen at, BATS i have two, hits no
- 1:03:06Speaker 1: extra base, hits three strike, out three, strikeouts three. Walks
- 1:03:09Speaker 1: it is too many, walks but he's set them to
- 1:03:11Speaker 1: a one to eighteen average and three sixty eight. Ohps
- 1:03:14Speaker 1: so he has done well Against San. Francisco he faced
- 1:03:16Speaker 1: them on the road earlier this. Year he only went
- 1:03:19Speaker 1: four and a third, innings, though but he did hold
- 1:03:20Speaker 1: him to one earned. Run the three walks was a
- 1:03:23Speaker 1: little bit, concerning but other than, that he's been. GOOD
- 1:03:25Speaker 1: i do think you can trust she in. Here. Uh
- 1:03:28Speaker 1: the issue is the. PRICE i, mean the price on
- 1:03:30Speaker 1: The dodgers think is too. High if you really want The,
- 1:03:33Speaker 1: dodgers it's tough to do, it, man because you really
- 1:03:35Speaker 1: don't know what you're gonna get out of. McDonald's you
- 1:03:36Speaker 1: could Go dodgers' first five innings because she and is,
- 1:03:39Speaker 1: good but it might be a duel in the first.
- 1:03:42Speaker 1: Five man who knows The dodgers are sitting at minus
- 1:03:46Speaker 1: two to ten on the money line eighty seven percent
- 1:03:48Speaker 1: of tickets and cash on. Them money's sort of coming
- 1:03:50Speaker 1: in towards the, under sixty five, percent tickets on the,
- 1:03:52Speaker 1: over sixty percent of the cash on the. Over public's
- 1:03:55Speaker 1: only going to play in an. Over in a game
- 1:03:56Speaker 1: like this with The dodgers, involved you have to worry
- 1:04:00Speaker 1: about The dodgers'. BULLPEN i could see maybe a first
- 1:04:03Speaker 1: five inning under because you have an unfamiliar young starting
- 1:04:05Speaker 1: pitcher against a somewhat proven now talented young starting. Pitcher
- 1:04:09Speaker 1: so if you wanted to go, UNDER i think you
- 1:04:11Speaker 1: would do it first five innings in that. One and
- 1:04:14Speaker 1: then we have two night games tonight for whatever. Reason
- 1:04:17Speaker 1: the actual Official sunday night game is a big game
- 1:04:20Speaker 1: With seattle And, houston with these two teams battling for the.
- 1:04:23Speaker 1: Division and as A Red sox, FAN i, said whoever
- 1:04:26Speaker 1: won the first game of the series basically needs to
- 1:04:28Speaker 1: sweep the series here because we need one of the
- 1:04:30Speaker 1: teams to just get thrown out of the. Playoffs so, Sorry.
- 1:04:33Speaker 1: HOUSTON i don't know if it's gonna happen, THOUGH i,
- 1:04:36Speaker 1: Mean seattle they're not as good on the road And
- 1:04:38Speaker 1: houston is better at. Home so it's pretty Surprising houston's
- 1:04:41Speaker 1: lost both these. GAMES i gave out a play On
- 1:04:42Speaker 1: houston in the first game and it was not a.
- 1:04:46Speaker 1: Winner houston's two games back Of seattle, now So houston
- 1:04:49Speaker 1: is tied with The Red SOX i, think and right
- 1:04:52Speaker 1: now they're both they're in the last two wildcard spots
- 1:04:55Speaker 1: and they're, tied and Then cleveland is like right behind.
- 1:04:58Speaker 1: Them so that's the setup. Here it's a big game
- 1:05:01Speaker 1: for both. TEAMS i, mean if you can get back
- 1:05:03Speaker 1: to it within one, game they still have a shot
- 1:05:06Speaker 1: at the, division which sounds crazy Because houston was leading
- 1:05:08Speaker 1: the division most of the. Season it's a battle. Though
- 1:05:12Speaker 1: both teams want to win this. Game they're fighting for
- 1:05:14Speaker 1: wildcard positioning and or the. Division huge, game it's ON.
- 1:05:17Speaker 1: Espn you. Know both bullpens are pretty. Solid houston used
- 1:05:22Speaker 1: four relief pitchers. Yesterday seattle used, four but only spire
- 1:05:28Speaker 1: for three. Pitches So seattle probably gets the bullpen edge
- 1:05:31Speaker 1: in this game. SLIGHTLY i don't even know which team
- 1:05:33Speaker 1: has the Better Bullpenny ray in the season at this.
- 1:05:35Speaker 1: Point seattle, does but it's very. Close their Tenth houston's
- 1:05:39Speaker 1: eleventh In Bullpenny. Ray seattle has the better hitting of
- 1:05:43Speaker 1: the two. Teams othery're up here at eleventh in overall,
- 1:05:47Speaker 1: Ops houston at. Fifteenth starting, pitching as far as talent is,
- 1:05:53Speaker 1: Concerned seattle does have the better starting pitcher here And Logan,
- 1:05:56Speaker 1: gilbert but there might be a few things to be concerned. About,
- 1:05:59Speaker 1: yeah his number are definitely good on the, season three
- 1:06:01Speaker 1: point five to THREE, era one point oh five, whip
- 1:06:04Speaker 1: but he's a lot worse on the. Road These seattle,
- 1:06:06Speaker 1: pitchers so many of them are just way better at
- 1:06:08Speaker 1: that home stadium where it's pitcher. Friendly he's got a
- 1:06:11Speaker 1: five point oh eight ROAD, era which is not. Great
- 1:06:14Speaker 1: he's been good this, month, though in three starts he's
- 1:06:16Speaker 1: given up two or fewer and runs and all three of.
- 1:06:18Speaker 1: Them he did fail to go five innings Against Saint
- 1:06:21Speaker 1: louis for whatever. Reason threw too many pitches in that.
- 1:06:23Speaker 1: One but he has a two point TWO era this,
- 1:06:25Speaker 1: month twenty to three strike, up, walk. Ratio he's been
- 1:06:28Speaker 1: good this, month but it was Against, Atlanta Saint, Louis Kansas,
- 1:06:31Speaker 1: city not totally impressive offenses. There two of those starts
- 1:06:34Speaker 1: on the, road, though so he did pitch better on
- 1:06:36Speaker 1: the road in his last couple of road. Starts his
- 1:06:39Speaker 1: numbers are pretty good Against houston, though as. Well in
- 1:06:41Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty one of bats forty two to
- 1:06:43Speaker 1: nine strike up walk. Ratio that's really. Solid two twenty
- 1:06:46Speaker 1: five batting average, allowed six eighty four ohps, Allowed so
- 1:06:49Speaker 1: he's done well Against. Houston he's going up Against George
- 1:06:53Speaker 1: costanza Chasing alexander For, houston who's been surprisingly good For.
- 1:06:58Speaker 1: Houston four point zero four one point three whip isn't
- 1:07:01Speaker 1: very good, obviously he's put too many guys on. Base
- 1:07:03Speaker 1: his home ra doesn't look good at four point nine to,
- 1:07:06Speaker 1: three but some of that was with The a's earlier
- 1:07:08Speaker 1: in the. Season you know how bad that a stadium,
- 1:07:11Speaker 1: is so his numbers at home might be a little bit.
- 1:07:13Speaker 1: BETTER i don't know what They you have to try
- 1:07:16Speaker 1: to figure out what they are at home With. Houston
- 1:07:18Speaker 1: he had one bad start With houston against his former,
- 1:07:21Speaker 1: team The a's in a second time in quick succession
- 1:07:23Speaker 1: that he was facing. Them i'll kind of give him
- 1:07:25Speaker 1: a pass for. That and it's been kind of. RIDICULOUS
- 1:07:28Speaker 1: i Think houston's won eleven of his twelve starts with,
- 1:07:31Speaker 1: them and they've. Won whatever this, IS i think nine
- 1:07:34Speaker 1: of his starts in a row they've, won which is just.
- 1:07:36Speaker 1: Insane he's allowed three or fewer earned runs and every
- 1:07:38Speaker 1: start going all the way back into Late, july he's
- 1:07:42Speaker 1: getting the job. Done at least this, month two point
- 1:07:44Speaker 1: one sixty ra with starts against The yankees And toronto
- 1:07:48Speaker 1: mixed in, there and it's just. Crazy fourteen to four
- 1:07:51Speaker 1: strake a walk race. Year he's pitching. WELL i, MEAN
- 1:07:54Speaker 1: i don't think he's a super talented bitcher, though or
- 1:07:56Speaker 1: anything like. THAT i mean he's kind of a. Journeyman
- 1:07:58Speaker 1: he's a little bit. Older it's crazy to see him
- 1:08:01Speaker 1: pitching as well as he. Is, really he's not going
- 1:08:04Speaker 1: out and blowing guys away. Either he's just limiting the
- 1:08:06Speaker 1: damage to quite an. Extent seattle has not seen much of.
- 1:08:10Speaker 1: Him they only have two hitters we've ever seen him,
- 1:08:12Speaker 1: before A Rosa rain And, polanco but they're two for,
- 1:08:15Speaker 1: two often with A polanco home. Run and A polanco
- 1:08:17Speaker 1: walk and no, strikeouts so it's a very unlimited sample,
- 1:08:21Speaker 1: size so he is unfamiliar to. Them but maybe you
- 1:08:24Speaker 1: do actually lean To gilbert here because his numbers are
- 1:08:27Speaker 1: good Against. Houston the money's coming in On seattle for, one, thirty,
- 1:08:31Speaker 1: one thirty. Three it seems crazy Getting houston is a
- 1:08:34Speaker 1: home underdog like, this and almost it's gonna look tempting
- 1:08:37Speaker 1: for the public to come in and be, like, Well,
- 1:08:38Speaker 1: houston they can't get swept in this, series. Right houston
- 1:08:42Speaker 1: has led the division the whole, time and they're at.
- 1:08:44Speaker 1: Home they're an. UNDERDOG i think it's gonna look tempting
- 1:08:46Speaker 1: to Play, houston and AS i pointed, Out houston is
- 1:08:49Speaker 1: pretty good at. Home, still they have a good home.
- 1:08:50Speaker 1: Record seattle's road record is not very, good but fifty
- 1:08:55Speaker 1: tickets seventy the cash On, seattle money coming in In.
- 1:08:58Speaker 1: SEATTLE i see arguments for an un or, here but
- 1:09:00Speaker 1: the total sitting at eight and money coming in in the,
- 1:09:04Speaker 1: over it looks like eighty percent to take as nine
- 1:09:06Speaker 1: percent of cash in the, Over SO i don't know
- 1:09:07Speaker 1: WHAT i would want to do with. That. Really MAYBE
- 1:09:11Speaker 1: i would lean with the money To, seattle, though, YEAH
- 1:09:15Speaker 1: i MEAN i Think alexander maybe a little little bit
- 1:09:18Speaker 1: of a mirage. There at some, point maybe that streak
- 1:09:23Speaker 1: has to, end, man SO i don't. Know and then
- 1:09:26Speaker 1: we do have the second night, game which is The
- 1:09:28Speaker 1: Red sox And Tampa Bay Red sox on the verge
- 1:09:31Speaker 1: of getting a sweep peer against The, rays WHICH i
- 1:09:33Speaker 1: would obviously like because The Red sox they got to keep.
- 1:09:36Speaker 1: Winning they're fighting for a wild card spot Here, man
- 1:09:40Speaker 1: they don't Want cleveland to sneak. In sneak in here
- 1:09:42Speaker 1: man and The Red sox have no control over the
- 1:09:44Speaker 1: fact That minnesota sucks. Ass The Red sox should have
- 1:09:47Speaker 1: won that series against The a's. Man they got a
- 1:09:50Speaker 1: good start from their man who's pitched, Tonight connolly, early
- 1:09:52Speaker 1: and The Red sox spoiled it by not giving him
- 1:09:55Speaker 1: any run support the last time he was out. There
- 1:09:58Speaker 1: so we'll see what happens. Here Red sox do have
- 1:10:00Speaker 1: the better of these two, bullpens although both bullpens are pretty.
- 1:10:03Speaker 1: Good both, bullpens actually The Red sox BULLPENS i used
- 1:10:07Speaker 1: suggest Today tampa pretty much saved their. Bullpen so even
- 1:10:11Speaker 1: though The Red sox have the second best bullpending are
- 1:10:13Speaker 1: In Baseball tampa's is, eight so they're not that far.
- 1:10:15Speaker 1: Behind And tampa has the more rested, bullpens so that
- 1:10:18Speaker 1: kind of negates the bullpen edge for The Red sox
- 1:10:20Speaker 1: a little. Bit The Red sox do have the better.
- 1:10:22Speaker 1: Offense where are they at? Here on? Offense Red sox
- 1:10:25Speaker 1: sitting at, eighth tied with The cubs in, Ops tampa
- 1:10:29Speaker 1: not that much further down though it's. Thirteenth this is
- 1:10:32Speaker 1: a hitter friendly ballpark as. WELL i think The Red
- 1:10:34Speaker 1: sox do have the starting pitching edge though With connolly
- 1:10:37Speaker 1: or early. Pitching he's been good so. Far. Man they
- 1:10:40Speaker 1: brought him up that he flew up through the. Miners,
- 1:10:42Speaker 1: man he's his velocity's gone. Up he's a pretty tall,
- 1:10:46Speaker 1: lefty not known for necessarily throwing, hard but he does
- 1:10:50Speaker 1: have a mid to upper nineties fastball at this. Point
- 1:10:52Speaker 1: his change up is really. Nasty changeup is his best
- 1:10:56Speaker 1: pitch that changes. Speed they're really fools.
- 1:10:59Speaker 2: Hitters it's a.
- 1:11:00Speaker 1: Lot of strikeouts, man with his change of.
- 1:11:02Speaker 2: Speed and then he.
- 1:11:04Speaker 1: Does have a couple other. PITCHES i think he's got
- 1:11:06Speaker 1: of still working on to some, extent but he's been
- 1:11:08Speaker 1: good so. Far. Man he's made two, starts both against The,
- 1:11:11Speaker 1: A's SO i think this is pretty, impressive, man because
- 1:11:14Speaker 1: his first start, ever he had to pitch against a
- 1:11:16Speaker 1: pretty good, lineup The a's at that a standing which
- 1:11:19Speaker 1: is a hitter front of the. Ballpark he went five
- 1:11:21Speaker 1: innings and shut them out and had eleven strikeouts in
- 1:11:24Speaker 1: one walk and that one five hits. Allowed and then
- 1:11:27Speaker 1: he followed it up having to face The a's against you,
- 1:11:29Speaker 1: KNOW i talk about, this when a pitcher is unfamiliar
- 1:11:32Speaker 1: to the opposing, lineup they tend to have a little
- 1:11:34Speaker 1: bit of an. Advantage but that advantage was gone the
- 1:11:38Speaker 1: second time because The a's had just seen him and
- 1:11:40Speaker 1: this was a family. Park and what did he. Do
- 1:11:43Speaker 1: he pretty much completely shut them down. Again he went
- 1:11:45Speaker 1: five and a, third gave up one on, run five,
- 1:11:47Speaker 1: hit seven, strikeouts no. Walks so he's off to the.
- 1:11:51Speaker 1: Races he's had a really high strikeout, range just like
- 1:11:54Speaker 1: he's had in the. Minors eighteen strikeouts to one. Walk.
- 1:11:58Speaker 1: Here he looks, Good, Man.
- 1:12:02Speaker 2: And the fact that he pitched at.
- 1:12:03Speaker 1: The a's is a good thing because that means he
- 1:12:05Speaker 1: might be used to pitching in a stadium like. This
- 1:12:07Speaker 1: it's a more hitter friendly. Stadium tampa is not as
- 1:12:10Speaker 1: good of an offense as The, a's so he might
- 1:12:13Speaker 1: be ready for this.
- 1:12:13Speaker 2: Man hopefully he.
- 1:12:14Speaker 1: Is. Uh he has that unfamiliarity edge back again here
- 1:12:17Speaker 1: Because tampa's never faced him, before SO i think early
- 1:12:21Speaker 1: like he could pitch well in this. Game hopefully he.
- 1:12:23Speaker 1: Does he's going up Against Joe boyle For, tampa who's
- 1:12:27Speaker 1: been kind of mediocre this. Year he is a looming mound, presence,
- 1:12:31Speaker 1: though but he's got a four point six FOUR era
- 1:12:34Speaker 1: one point two seven.
- 1:12:35Speaker 2: WHIP i, mean not, terrible but not.
- 1:12:36Speaker 1: Great he's way better at home, though surprisingly two point
- 1:12:39Speaker 1: one six home raven though this is a hitter friendly.
- 1:12:43Speaker 1: Ballpark he's not pitched much this year. THOUGH i think
- 1:12:46Speaker 1: he was making bullpen appearances until more, recently and he
- 1:12:51Speaker 1: hasn't been that great really as a starting. Pitcher And
- 1:12:53Speaker 1: august he had a nine point four to two r
- 1:12:55Speaker 1: and a really disgustingly ugly fifteen to twelve strike a walk.
- 1:12:59Speaker 1: Ratio tampa's lost six of the last seven games he's,
- 1:13:04Speaker 1: appeared and none of that is. Good to the last
- 1:13:06Speaker 1: time that he shut Out toronto for six, innings he's still.
- 1:13:09Speaker 2: LOST i think that was Against Y.
- 1:13:10Speaker 1: Savage, Uh boyle had a really good start in that,
- 1:13:13Speaker 1: one five, strikeouts no. Walks but is that an. Outlier
- 1:13:16Speaker 1: it might be because he wasn't pitching that well prior to.
- 1:13:18Speaker 1: That he's going up against The Red. Sox they have
- 1:13:21Speaker 1: seen him a little. BIT i think in his relief.
- 1:13:22Speaker 1: APPEARANCES i don't. Think, ACTUALLY i don't. Know he pitched
- 1:13:25Speaker 1: four innies against him in Not, july SO i don't
- 1:13:28Speaker 1: know if that was a start or if it was
- 1:13:29Speaker 1: a relief. Appearance but The Red sox got to him a.
- 1:13:32Speaker 1: Bit The Red sox have a three seventy five batting
- 1:13:34Speaker 1: average off him in nine to eleven oh ps off
- 1:13:36Speaker 1: him in sixteen at, bats three walks to two. Strikeouts
- 1:13:40Speaker 1: so The Red sox have been able to get to
- 1:13:41Speaker 1: him when they have seen. Him the money seems to
- 1:13:43Speaker 1: be coming in on The Red, sox up from minus
- 1:13:45Speaker 1: one one twenty. Two i'm gonna pray seventy five percent of.
- 1:13:49Speaker 1: Tickets uh, yeah ninety percent of the cash on The Red.
- 1:13:53Speaker 1: Sox that's the way the money's. Moving we get money
- 1:13:55Speaker 1: on the under. Too a flip from eight juice to the,
- 1:13:57Speaker 1: over to eight juice to the. Under fifty percent of
- 1:13:59Speaker 1: tickets the under ninety six percent of the cash on the.
- 1:14:01Speaker 1: UNDER i could see the. UNDER i, MEAN i probably
- 1:14:04Speaker 1: would still lean to The Red, sox though at least
- 1:14:06Speaker 1: in the first five. INNINGS i Think early hopefully should
- 1:14:10Speaker 1: be able to Outdual. Boil that's probably the WAY i
- 1:14:12Speaker 1: leaning in that. GAME i worry about The Red Sox
- 1:14:14Speaker 1: bullpen a. BIT i am worried Man Red. SOX i
- 1:14:17Speaker 1: like what they're doing with this, new like young core
- 1:14:20Speaker 1: that they have, here BUT i, mean they're in. Experience
- 1:14:22Speaker 1: they're not gonna win anything this. Year so if they
- 1:14:24Speaker 1: get if they get to the, playoffs it'll be. Fun
- 1:14:26Speaker 1: but they're not gonna win, Anything, so you, KNOW i
- 1:14:29Speaker 1: guess it is what it. Is BUT i THINK i
- 1:14:31Speaker 1: want them to get to the playoffs because then these,
- 1:14:33Speaker 1: guys the young, guys will get playoff. Experience that's what you,
- 1:14:36Speaker 1: want you, know even if they're gonna lose in the
- 1:14:38Speaker 1: first round or. Whatever so we'll see what. Happens. Man
- 1:14:42Speaker 1: let's get to the best, bets WHICH i will reiterate
- 1:14:47Speaker 1: the football bets at the end as. Well. Here so
- 1:14:51Speaker 1: the two bets That i'm gonna give. Out the first
- 1:14:53Speaker 1: one is one of the early, games Not connony, early
- 1:14:56Speaker 1: But Yankees. Baltimore we're gonna go first five innings under
- 1:14:59Speaker 1: the four at plus one. Hundred most of the books
- 1:15:01Speaker 1: were at under four and a, half but they were
- 1:15:03Speaker 1: charging a bit much at like minus one twenty. FIVE
- 1:15:07Speaker 1: i wouldn't knock you if you still did. That if
- 1:15:09Speaker 1: that's the only way you can do, it maybe you
- 1:15:11Speaker 1: still do. It BUT i think this is gonna be
- 1:15:13Speaker 1: in an under early in this. Game but of Course
- 1:15:15Speaker 1: i'm leaving the bullpens out BECAUSE i don't trust either.
- 1:15:17Speaker 1: Bullpen yankees got the. Win you say the bullpen's are
- 1:15:20Speaker 1: at least somewhat. Rested baltimore's is less. Rested yankees do
- 1:15:24Speaker 1: have a bullpen edge, here as ridiculous as that, sounds
- 1:15:26Speaker 1: because their bullpen isn't, good but it is better Than
- 1:15:29Speaker 1: baltimore's and more rested. Here BUT i don't want to
- 1:15:31Speaker 1: deal with any of. That i'm gonna focus on the
- 1:15:33Speaker 1: starting pitching. Matchup and, yeah The yankees have the better
- 1:15:35Speaker 1: offense in this. Game we all know, this but starting
- 1:15:38Speaker 1: pitching looks like an under to. Me Man like this
- 1:15:40Speaker 1: jumped out at me right. Away Cam schlitzler is pitching
- 1:15:43Speaker 1: for The. YANKEES i Think i've gone on a couple
- 1:15:44Speaker 1: of unders with him. ALREADY i THINK i might have
- 1:15:46Speaker 1: had a first Five yankee play with him at one
- 1:15:49Speaker 1: point as. Well he's a rookie and he's doing pretty.
- 1:15:51Speaker 1: Well three point four to ONE e those whip is
- 1:15:54Speaker 1: too high at one point three to. Five he's given
- 1:15:56Speaker 1: up too many, WALKS i. Think but he's been for
- 1:15:58Speaker 1: the most part pretty strong two point nine to SIX
- 1:16:01Speaker 1: era on the, Road so he's good on the. ROAD
- 1:16:03Speaker 1: i know this month his numbers are. Ugly six point
- 1:16:06Speaker 1: five SEVEN, era fifteen to nine strike at walk right,
- 1:16:09Speaker 1: here that's. Ugly he walked five guys in his last
- 1:16:11Speaker 1: outing Against minnesota and started that implosion where The yankees
- 1:16:15Speaker 1: almost blew a ten to one lead in that game
- 1:16:17Speaker 1: only win he ten to. NINE i don't know how
- 1:16:20Speaker 1: much we'd take away from, that because, yeah he was
- 1:16:22Speaker 1: bad in that, start and he was bad Against. Toronto
- 1:16:25Speaker 1: baltimore's a pretty bad, offense SO i Know minnesota also.
- 1:16:28Speaker 1: Is but he kind of alternated good events. Start it's,
- 1:16:31Speaker 1: LIKE i do of think he's gonna bounce back in
- 1:16:32Speaker 1: this one, man And baltimore has never seen him, before
- 1:16:35Speaker 1: so that's an extra. Edge For schlitzler because he's a
- 1:16:38Speaker 1: talented young. PITCHER i know he's not in a great
- 1:16:40Speaker 1: forum right, now but the extra edge here the fact
- 1:16:43Speaker 1: That baltimore hasn't faced him. Before they're not that prolific an,
- 1:16:45Speaker 1: offense SO i think he should do well. Here baltimore's
- 1:16:49Speaker 1: Got Kyle bradish. Pitching he's been good so far for
- 1:16:52Speaker 1: them since he came. Back he came back from, injury
- 1:16:54Speaker 1: so we don't have a big sample size for. Him
- 1:16:56Speaker 1: but two point four to FIVE, era one point zero
- 1:16:59Speaker 1: nine whip that's. Bad he's been better at home to
- 1:17:02Speaker 1: two point EIGHTY. R at home he's allowed two or
- 1:17:04Speaker 1: fewer on runs and all five his outings so. Far
- 1:17:07Speaker 1: baldemor's won all three of his outings In, september but
- 1:17:10Speaker 1: really you only faced one strong, offense which was The Red,
- 1:17:13Speaker 1: sox although he held him down and got a lot
- 1:17:15Speaker 1: of strikeouts in that, one so he is pitching well.
- 1:17:18Speaker 1: Overall a few too many, walks just because he walked
- 1:17:21Speaker 1: four guys last time out against The White, sox but
- 1:17:24Speaker 1: maybe that was a little bit of an, outlier so
- 1:17:26Speaker 1: give him a pass for that a little.
- 1:17:28Speaker 2: Bit and he does do well against The.
- 1:17:29Speaker 1: Yankees they have thirty four at bats against, him thirteen,
- 1:17:32Speaker 1: strikeouts five. Walks it is too many, walks but three
- 1:17:34Speaker 1: of them are, judged so probably he pitches Around judge
- 1:17:37Speaker 1: because we know how Good judge is one seven batting
- 1:17:40Speaker 1: average willot four ninety two o. Ps So bradish does
- 1:17:42Speaker 1: do pretty well against, Them so we'll go with it
- 1:17:45Speaker 1: under first. Five in this. One the money seems to
- 1:17:47Speaker 1: be someonet agreeing with, it because it did go down
- 1:17:50Speaker 1: off that key number nine juice to the, under down
- 1:17:54Speaker 1: to eight and a half juice to the. Under but
- 1:17:55Speaker 1: NOW i see some money coming back into the, over
- 1:17:57Speaker 1: SO i am worried that was a bit of a,
- 1:17:58Speaker 1: setup like the professionals wanted to just knock it off
- 1:18:01Speaker 1: the nine so they could take the. Over BUT i
- 1:18:03Speaker 1: think under first five is still the right one and
- 1:18:06Speaker 1: the right way to go in this. One fifty tickets
- 1:18:08Speaker 1: on the, over seventy four percent of the cash on the.
- 1:18:10Speaker 1: OVER i do worry that it looks like the money's
- 1:18:12Speaker 1: coming back in on the over. Now it looked like
- 1:18:15Speaker 1: the money was coming in on the under, Earlier so,
- 1:18:16Speaker 1: yeah that's a little bit of a worries some shift,
- 1:18:20Speaker 1: There but based on my analysis of, that we're gonna
- 1:18:22Speaker 1: go under first five and then we will finish it
- 1:18:25Speaker 1: off with The Cincinnati reds money. Line we'll go back to. It,
- 1:18:28Speaker 1: Man we'll try to bookend this series with two wins On. Cincinnati.
- 1:18:32Speaker 1: Uh they got us a win in the first game
- 1:18:33Speaker 1: of the. SERIES i didn't play in the last two.
- 1:18:35Speaker 1: Games they're on a five game win or excuse four
- 1:18:37Speaker 1: game win. Streak now they have a ton to play.
- 1:18:40Speaker 1: For they're trying to make the last wildcard spot. HERE
- 1:18:42Speaker 1: i think they haven't been to the playoffs for quite a.
- 1:18:44Speaker 1: While they're playing against The, cubs who are one of
- 1:18:47Speaker 1: the better teams in the. Division and The, cubs AS i,
- 1:18:49Speaker 1: said really don't have a whole lot to play for
- 1:18:51Speaker 1: at this. Point they're pretty much locked into their. Out,
- 1:18:54Speaker 1: see they've already clinched a wildcard. Spot they're pretty much
- 1:18:58Speaker 1: locked into the. Wildcards so The reds have a lot
- 1:19:01Speaker 1: more to play. For, YES i know The. Cubs we'll
- 1:19:03Speaker 1: want to try to avoid a sweet peer and maybe
- 1:19:05Speaker 1: show up, here but we're gonna tip the scales to
- 1:19:08Speaker 1: The reds. Here. Man The cubs do have a somewhat better,
- 1:19:10Speaker 1: bullpen but it's not significantly better not a ton of
- 1:19:14Speaker 1: usage really either. Way i'm looking at the. Bullpens The
- 1:19:17Speaker 1: cubs are at twelfth in BULLPEN era now and The
- 1:19:19Speaker 1: reds are not that much further down at fifteenth zero
- 1:19:23Speaker 1: point two runs worse or something like. That so we're
- 1:19:26Speaker 1: gonna go with, it, man because they think the starting
- 1:19:27Speaker 1: pitching it kind of domino into the bullpen scenario as.
- 1:19:30Speaker 1: Well The cubs do generally have the better, offense but
- 1:19:33Speaker 1: it hasn't been as good. Recently cubs are sitting at eighth,
- 1:19:36Speaker 1: now tied with Other Red sox and. Offense The reds
- 1:19:39Speaker 1: a little bit worse down at, seventeenth but there's certainly
- 1:19:41Speaker 1: a capable offense at. Least but of, course a lot
- 1:19:44Speaker 1: of this is about the starting pitching and the. Motivation
- 1:19:47Speaker 1: Jameson tie on his pitching for The. Cubs he's been
- 1:19:49Speaker 1: pretty good this year three point nine to THREE, era
- 1:19:52Speaker 1: one point zero NINE, wit but he's not as good
- 1:19:54Speaker 1: on the road four point five to. Two Roadyra he
- 1:19:58Speaker 1: came back from an INJURY i think In september earlier this,
- 1:20:02Speaker 1: month and he had one fairly bad start Against. Atlanta
- 1:20:05Speaker 1: didn't last five innings in that, one did have a
- 1:20:07Speaker 1: six inning shutout last time, out but it was Against,
- 1:20:09Speaker 1: pittsburgh SO i don't know if there's a whole lot
- 1:20:12Speaker 1: you can take away from. That he is a one
- 1:20:13Speaker 1: point seven FOUR era this month because of, that but
- 1:20:16Speaker 1: five to four strike a walk ratio not exactly. Good
- 1:20:18Speaker 1: it's too many walks against The. Reds this is where
- 1:20:22Speaker 1: we're really looking. Here it's a big sample, size one
- 1:20:24Speaker 1: hundred and fifteen at. Bats he's been, good strike at
- 1:20:27Speaker 1: walk ratio wise twenty four to, four but three or
- 1:20:29Speaker 1: four average alloted eight ninety nine. Ohps that's not. Good
- 1:20:33Speaker 1: so he is not good against The. Reds he's not
- 1:20:35Speaker 1: as good on the, rows so he looks fadable in this.
- 1:20:37Speaker 1: One and he's going up Against Andrew, abbott even THOUGH
- 1:20:40Speaker 1: i Know abbot might be pitching.
- 1:20:41Speaker 2: A little bit above his pay grade. Here he's having
- 1:20:44Speaker 2: a good.
- 1:20:44Speaker 1: Season he was pretty solid his first two, seasons though
- 1:20:47Speaker 1: his whip was too, high but he's gotten that kind
- 1:20:49Speaker 1: of under control this. Year we worry a little bit
- 1:20:52Speaker 1: that he's throwing too many innings now because this is
- 1:20:54Speaker 1: the most innings he's thrown in his. Career but he
- 1:20:57Speaker 1: doesn't seem to be totally wearing down. Yet he's been
- 1:20:59Speaker 1: really good on the season in two point eight EIGHTY,
- 1:21:01Speaker 1: ra one point one to five. Whip he's a good
- 1:21:04Speaker 1: at home two point five two home y rave though
- 1:21:06Speaker 1: it is a hitter friendly. Park was a little bit
- 1:21:08Speaker 1: shaky in a couple of starts this, month, THOUGH i
- 1:21:11Speaker 1: know against The mets and then Against Saint louis on the.
- 1:21:14Speaker 1: Road didn't make it five innings in either one of.
- 1:21:17Speaker 1: Those so is he wearing? Down i'm not, sure because
- 1:21:19Speaker 1: he still has an eighteen to three strike a walk
- 1:21:21Speaker 1: ratio this, Month so his strikeout rate still being that
- 1:21:23Speaker 1: high tells me that he isn't really totally wearing down.
- 1:21:27Speaker 1: Yet he's still able to fool guys and get all these.
- 1:21:30Speaker 1: Strikeouts that's a Good those are good command, numbers, Man
- 1:21:32Speaker 1: he's just allowed too many hits over that stretch four
- 1:21:36Speaker 1: point six SEVENTY ra this. Month a little bit, worrious
- 1:21:39Speaker 1: But i'm not totally concerned about it right. Now his
- 1:21:41Speaker 1: numbers against The cubs are good and ninety one at
- 1:21:43Speaker 1: bats seventeen to eleven strike a walk ratio is. BAD
- 1:21:46Speaker 1: i get that too many, walks but he's telling them
- 1:21:48Speaker 1: to a two point nine average six ninety oh ps
- 1:21:51Speaker 1: so we will roll with The Cincinnati. Reds the money's
- 1:21:55Speaker 1: coming in on The, cubs WHICH i worry about because
- 1:21:57Speaker 1: it looked like earlier The cubs were a public. Team
- 1:22:00Speaker 1: we're fading. Here fifty eight percent of, tickets sixty seven
- 1:22:03Speaker 1: percent of the cash coming into the. Cups so Now
- 1:22:04Speaker 1: i'm worried about that. TOO i handicapped these BEFORE i
- 1:22:08Speaker 1: see the late line. Movement, Man SO i don't, know
- 1:22:09Speaker 1: But cincinnati's up for minus one thirteen of minus one seventeen.
- 1:22:12Speaker 1: Here looks like some of the market movement did come
- 1:22:16Speaker 1: in On. Cincinnati but that's gonna be the. Play we'll
- 1:22:19Speaker 1: see what, happens. Man oh and then now let's look
- 1:22:21Speaker 1: at THE. Nfl. Here we do, have AS i, said
- 1:22:24Speaker 1: The browns plus seven and a, half The jets plus
- 1:22:26Speaker 1: six and a, half And carolina plus. Five those of
- 1:22:29Speaker 1: MY nfl plays for. Today go watch MY nfl video
- 1:22:31Speaker 1: from last night to see the analysis on those. Games
- 1:22:35Speaker 1: we look at the, Market, Rea let's look at the
- 1:22:37Speaker 1: market reads real quick, here just to see what's going.
- 1:22:39Speaker 1: On the. Money looks like it's still coming in on The.
- 1:22:41Speaker 1: Colts there's been even THOUGH i SAID i kind of
- 1:22:44Speaker 1: leaned to The titans plus the points that number has
- 1:22:47Speaker 1: been driven up a, bit so a significant kind of
- 1:22:49Speaker 1: cash percentage on The. Colts so weird, There, carolina one
- 1:22:53Speaker 1: of my, players there's still an anti public home underdog,
- 1:22:56Speaker 1: here slight cash percentage on The. Falcons But i'm not
- 1:22:59Speaker 1: sure THAT i buy. THAT i think it's still good
- 1:23:01Speaker 1: to go on that. One public fade money looks like
- 1:23:03Speaker 1: it's still coming out In. WASHINGTON i agree with that
- 1:23:06Speaker 1: money is still fading a very public packer, Team so
- 1:23:09Speaker 1: that looks good for The. BROWNS i, SAID i liked The,
- 1:23:12Speaker 1: vikings but the money looks like it's kind of. Fading
- 1:23:14Speaker 1: that sentiment against The. Vikings that's kind of a difficult handicap.
- 1:23:18Speaker 1: MAN i kind of lean to The, vikings but that's
- 1:23:20Speaker 1: one of the ones that's kind of up in the,
- 1:23:22Speaker 1: air The eagles getting some of the cash percenters. There
- 1:23:25Speaker 1: BUT i do think The rams having playoff revenge in that.
- 1:23:27Speaker 1: One the situation does tell me The rams in that.
- 1:23:30Speaker 1: One SO i don't Think i'm gonna not do that
- 1:23:32Speaker 1: one as far as like having them in at least
- 1:23:35Speaker 1: be my, pick and like my pick On pools OR
- 1:23:36Speaker 1: i pick every Game Steelers, patriots this one does look
- 1:23:40Speaker 1: like the public is somewhat on The steelers and the
- 1:23:42Speaker 1: money's kind of fading, them SO i think The patriots
- 1:23:44Speaker 1: are probably the way to lean in that. Game public
- 1:23:47Speaker 1: is definitely heavily on The buccaneers with less money on,
- 1:23:50Speaker 1: them so The jets play looks like it is the
- 1:23:52Speaker 1: market read. There a public is on The texans with
- 1:23:55Speaker 1: less of the, cash so The jaguars look like they're
- 1:23:58Speaker 1: probably the market read in that. One chargers have dropped
- 1:24:01Speaker 1: on the line a little bit off of that key
- 1:24:03Speaker 1: number three at some, spots SO i think The broncos
- 1:24:06Speaker 1: are probably the right side of the plus three. There
- 1:24:08Speaker 1: it's going against the public as. Well seahawks just very,
- 1:24:12Speaker 1: public SO i still lean to The saints plus the,
- 1:24:14Speaker 1: points even THOUGH i THINK i have no choice but
- 1:24:16Speaker 1: to take The seahawks In, survivor.
- 1:24:20Speaker 2: So we'll see what happens.
- 1:24:21Speaker 1: There cowboys again had flipped to the, favorite but the
- 1:24:23Speaker 1: public is all over The, cowboys less of the money
- 1:24:27Speaker 1: on The, cowboys SO i lean to The bears still
- 1:24:29Speaker 1: in that. One money looks like it is coming into
- 1:24:32Speaker 1: the forty Nine ers, still SO i probably still just
- 1:24:34Speaker 1: have to lean to the forty nine ers that. One
- 1:24:35Speaker 1: and just go with the market. Read even though It's
- 1:24:38Speaker 1: Mac jones again with the forty nine. ERS i worry
- 1:24:40Speaker 1: about that one a little. Bit and if you missed
- 1:24:41Speaker 1: my show last, night by the, Way Bengals vikings are
- 1:24:44Speaker 1: both playing backup quarterbacks, here But Carson wentz really isn't
- 1:24:49Speaker 1: that much of a.
- 1:24:49Speaker 2: DOWNGRADE i don't think for The.
- 1:24:51Speaker 1: Vikings from McCarthy borrowed down To browning is probably a
- 1:24:55Speaker 1: bigger drop off, there even Though browning does have experience
- 1:24:58Speaker 1: in that System. Washington by the, way just so you,
- 1:25:00Speaker 1: know because the line looks way too, LOW i get.
- 1:25:02Speaker 1: It Jayden daniels is not playing in that. Game he's
- 1:25:06Speaker 1: injured and will Be Marcus, marioto but he does know the,
- 1:25:09Speaker 1: system so at least there's. That and then we do
- 1:25:12Speaker 1: have The jets are going With Tyrod, taylor And i'm
- 1:25:15Speaker 1: on them because it's in your player. Spot you can go.
- 1:25:18Speaker 2: Watch my analysis on.
- 1:25:19Speaker 1: THAT i Think Tyrod taylor's he's a decent experienced quarterback.
- 1:25:23Speaker 2: Man so that's what we got going on.
- 1:25:24Speaker 1: There and then The chiefs still have the money percentage
- 1:25:27Speaker 1: here in the night, game but by the time that
- 1:25:28Speaker 1: game kicks, Off i'm not sure that's gonna be the.
- 1:25:30Speaker 1: Case The chiefs sitting AT i think too much of
- 1:25:34Speaker 1: a favorite for a defensive team like. This and by the,
- 1:25:36Speaker 1: way thanks to a cole my Former Tower game co,
- 1:25:39Speaker 1: HOST i think it was, him one of the guys
- 1:25:41Speaker 1: in the twitter chat that we're in posted a graphic
- 1:25:45Speaker 1: that said that The chiefs have never won a road
- 1:25:47Speaker 1: game against The giants in their, history so it's. INTERESTING
- 1:25:51Speaker 1: i think they're like oh and seven or own six
- 1:25:54Speaker 1: or something like. That so definitely somebody to keep in. Mind,
- 1:25:56Speaker 1: actually let me, LOOK i can see what that graphic is.
- 1:25:59Speaker 1: Here i'm not gonna show the, chat but let me just.
- 1:26:01Speaker 1: See i'm looking at THE sat right. Now The chiefs
- 1:26:07Speaker 1: are four and eleven all time straight up against The. Giants.
- 1:26:12Speaker 1: Uh they have the lowest win percentage of any team
- 1:26:15Speaker 1: against The, giants although it's a small sample, size and
- 1:26:18Speaker 1: their own seven lifetime against The giants In New. York
- 1:26:21Speaker 1: so that's the those are what the numbers. Say and
- 1:26:24Speaker 1: Then Lions. Ravens we'll talk about it more, tomorrow but
- 1:26:27Speaker 1: right now the public is on The. Ravens it looks
- 1:26:29Speaker 1: like the money is against, them so that's gonna do. It,
- 1:26:32Speaker 1: Man thanks for hanging out. Everybody learn to tone On,
- 1:26:34Speaker 1: Twitter learn a tone On. Instagram better off dead, like
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- 1:26:58Speaker 1: That so that's gonna do it for. Now hit some
- 1:27:00Speaker 1: winns today, man and uh peace for now, man mm
- 1:27:08Speaker 1: hmm