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Elon Musk warns every to have at least 3 kids or society will collapse · Elon Musk Podcast

• 0:01
  Hey, everybody. Welcome back to the Elon Musk
• 0:04
  Podcast. This is a show where we discuss
• 0:07
  the critical crossroads that shape SpaceX, Tesla X, The
• 0:11
  Boring Company, and Neuralink. I'm your host, Will Walden.
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  AI I I I, I mean, AI might be the most important question of
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  all the I mean the the percentage of intelligence that
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  is biological, you know, grows smaller with each passing month.
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  Eventually the percentage of intelligence that is biological
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  will be less than 1%. The that's actually not what I
• 0:58
  mean. We, we just, I just don't want
• 1:00
  AI that is brutal. If the AI is somehow brutal, you
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  know, silicon circuit boards are don't do well just out, out in
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  the elements. So I think, I think biological
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  intelligence can serve as a a backstop as a as a buffer of
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  intelligence. But almost all in, as a
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  percentage, almost all intelligence will be digital.
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  So then it's like, well, what role will it be for us?
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  I, I don't know. I do think, I think it's very
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  important that we build the AI in a way that that is beneficial
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  to humanity. And there's some important
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  principles here because I've thought about AI safety for a
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  very long time. I think you want to have a
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  maximum truth seeking AI. This is very important.
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  The AI should not be taught to lie.
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  It should not be taught to say things that are not true.
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  Even if those things are politically incorrect, it should
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  still say those that say what it believes to be true.
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  I mean, the entire part of 2001 Space Odyssey, the reason that
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  that Hal 9000 killed the astronauts was because it was
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  forced to lie. I don't know if most people
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  realize that. That's what Arthur C Clarke was
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  trying to say. Don't make the AI lie.
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  The AI was told that that the astronauts could not know the
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  secret of the monolith, but also that it must take them to the
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  monolith. The solution take them to the
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  monolith dead. And so, so it's very important
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  to have a maximum truth seeking AI and and and a maximally
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  curious AI. And I think that will that's
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  most likely to foster human civilization because we are much
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  more interesting than a bunch of rocks.
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  So although I think Mars, I love Mars obviously, but but you
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  could render Mars quite easily because it kind of looks like a
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  section of the Arizona desert. You know, it's like red rocks,
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  you know. But the rendering complexity of
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  human civilization is vastly greater by many orders of
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  magnitude. So I think an AI would be that
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  as that as truth seeking, maximally curious would foster
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  human civilization to see where it where it.
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  Goes one of the questions here, Can AI accelerate your efforts
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  in space? How do you see it being helping
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  you and what you're trying to achieve?
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  I mean, oddly enough, one of the the areas where there's almost
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  no AI used is space exploration. So SpaceX uses basically no AI.
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  Starlink users does not use AI. I'm not, I'm not against using
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  it, I just we haven't seen A use for it.
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  I mean, with any given variant of or improvement in AI, the, I
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  mean, there's generally like I'll ask it questions about the
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  Fermi paradox, about rocket engine design, about electric
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  chemistry. And so far the AI has been
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  terrible at all those questions. So there's still a long way to
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  go. So let's let's talk about one.
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  Here's a question that's near and dear to your heart.
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  You have a lot of children. Yes, I'm trying to say the
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  birth. Rate is down in the US.
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  What needs to change so people start having more children?
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  Yeah. So this this question has
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  troubled me for a long time because you can look at you can
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  look at the like demographics. It's a very slow moving ship.
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  I mean, you know who's going to be an adult in 20 years based on
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  who was born last year. So, and now if you want to, I
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  think has have a good approximation for population,
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  really look at how many babies were born last year in a
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  particular country. Multiply that, multiply that by
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  life expectancy. That's, that's, that's the
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  number of people that will be adults in that country.
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  That's, that's the, that's the steady state population.
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  If birth rate remains constant, now birth rate is not constant,
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  it is dropping. So you look at the 2nd
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  derivative of birth rate and actually we see an an
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  acceleration in the the, the, the drop in in the in the drop
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  in the fertility rate. Second derivative of the
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  fertility rate is very bad. So where does this lead?
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  This does not lead to a greater civilization.
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  This leads to a civilization that potentially dies not with a
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  bang, but with a whimper in adult diapers.
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  That is a sad ending. So obviously we have countries
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  that, like Korea used to have a birth rate of six.
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  It's now 3/4. Here's a here's a light question
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  for you. What do you think?
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  Pick me up, I'll give you a baby.
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  Says what? Do you think are the?
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  That is one of the things that says on the screen.
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  I don't know if everyone heard that you want to read it.
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  It says, Elon, come pick me up. I'll give you a baby.
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  Thank you. OK.
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  Well, I mean, I certainly encourage everyone in this room
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  to have at least three children. Like, look, baby's got to come
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  from somewhere, you know, and I think we just want to have, I
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  don't know, I think we want to have like a slightly increasing
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  population, not a plummeting population, you know, and I
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  think this applies to all countries and cultures.
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  Like I don't, I don't think we want any country culture to
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  disappear. We want them to ideally flourish
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  and and not disappear. So in fact, one of the things
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  that is overlooked by probably most historians is the role of
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  low birth rate in the decline of civilizations.
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  So around I think it was around 50 BC, the Rome passed a bill to
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  give a bonus to any Roman citizen that would have a third
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  child. So this was a birth rate was a
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  problem in Rome in 50 BC. The Romans weren't making
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  Romans. The same is true of ancient
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  Greece. So the the there was a time from
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  about 800 BC to 300 ish BC where the Greeks were had a lot of
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  kids and a lot of surviving kids.
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  Like the birth rate far exceeded the death rate which is why you
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  had Greek cities popping up all over the the Mediterranean.
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  But then I think basically it seems to be that prosperity is
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  destroys the birth rate. So if when, when a civilization
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  feels like it has no, no meaningful external threat and
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  is very prosperous, that is what caused the birth rate to
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  plummet. Somewhat counterintuitively, you
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  think, well, if you've got more resources, surely that would
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  lead to more, more kids. In fact, it is the opposite.
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  The more the more prosperous a civilization, and the more the
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  civilization feels that it does not need to defend against
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  external threats, the lower the birth rate.
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  I'd say that, you know, there's a lot of research on there.
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  So there's really been three, one, number one, prosperity, as
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  you've said #2 improvements in healthcare.
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  So in 1900, half the children died on the planet before their
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  5th. And the third was the education
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  of women. So we've had some pretty
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  interesting questions put up here, but let's try this one.
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  What keeps you up at night and what gives you joy?
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  Well, I think kids give me joy, so I probably get the most joy
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  from my kids. And you know, I'm not saying
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  that that's the reason to have kids because we should have them
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  anyway. But I, I, I certainly kids, I
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  said sort of the, the greatest was to draw in my life in terms
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  of what keeps me up at night. I guess it's anything that's
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  like, I think, a civilizational risk.
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  Hey, thank you so much for listening today.
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• 10:23
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• 10:47
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