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Observations The State of The Nation (and Florida) · Conversations: Special Guests with Preston Scott

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Here we go Morning Show with Preston Scott.
• 0:04
  Speaker 2: Good to be with you this morning. Five minutes past
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: the hour is.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: The third hour of the radio program, and that means
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: it's time to talk with doctor Bob mclory's the president
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: of the James Madison Institute, and our guest.
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: How are you, sir? I'm doing great? How about you?
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: And is this time of year exciting to you? Or
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: is it exciting? But there's a little nervousness, a little
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: anxiousness because of just the condition our country's in.
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: It's both.
• 0:32
  Speaker 3: I love this time of year. I'm constantly tracking data,
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: looking at data from all sources right, left, middle, across
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  Speaker 3: the board, and it's really a lot of fun, but
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: it is very nerve racking.
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  Speaker 2: It's like, you know, I.
• 0:51
  Speaker 3: Grew up competitive, you know, competitive sports and all that
• 0:55
  Speaker 3: kind of stuff, and I still look at it that way.
• 0:58
  Speaker 3: And this is like a ballgame that that's not over yet,
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: and so I don't know the outcome, and so you know,
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: I kind of grip the chair and try to make
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: my own predictions. So it's a little bit of both.
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: It's nerve wracking, but it's a lot of fun, especially
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: at the James Madison Institute, where we get a lot
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: of opportunity to discuss policy. What that means we even
• 1:21
  Speaker 3: weigh into the politics because we can weigh into it
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: as I'm sure you and I will today and who rejections,
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: who might win, who won't win, that kind of stuff.
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: So we're able to do that even though we're quote
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: a think tank, and there's nothing wrong with it. So
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: I really enjoy this time.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Of year from your years of experienced actor McClory. Just
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: looking at the polling, how much faith or trust you
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: put in it six months ago versus now? Very different
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: six months ago to now, and very different poll to poll. So,
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: for example, there are some polls that I really really
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: trust and there are a number of polls that I
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: don't trust. So if you look at the real Clear
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Politics average, it's a great model, but it has a
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: flaw or a couple of flaws. The main flaw is
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: that all polls are averaged, and so there are several
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: polls in there that are just terrible polls.
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  Speaker 3: They oversample democrats, they don't distinguish between registered and likely voters,
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: different things like that. And I would argue that the
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  Speaker 3: New York Times Ciena poll and the Quinnipiac polls are
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: just really not they're they're just heavily heavily democratic, my
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: favorite polls.
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  Speaker 1: And when you say heavily weighted, we're talking beyond the
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: normal weight that would exist because there's more Democrats registered
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: than Republicans right nationwide.
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: Right, So the big news last week, Preston, as you know,
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: is that for the first time since the early nineties,
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: more people identify as Republican than Democrat. That was last week.
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: Hasn't happened since ninety ninety two in the wake of Reagan,
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: right right, right, right, that's right, And all that means
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: is that when Upholster calls Preston Scott and he wakes
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: up and he feels more Republican or more Democrat. These
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: people don't live and die by politics, right. They're paying
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: their mortgage. Most people don't, So you have to be
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: careful as someone who lives in this world. More people
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: identify as Republican the Democrat than Democrat. That was the
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: big news last week. But if you are the New
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: York Times Seena poll and you're sampling plus ten Democrat,
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  Speaker 3: you're going to have an oversampling positively for the Democratic Party.
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: For all those swing state Senate races for Kamala Harris,
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: for all of that stuff, and that is just wrong.
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: You can't oversample by ten percent, so to your point,
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: I think, and so that skews the real clear politics average.
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: I think there are some great polls out there. I
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: think Trafalgar is one of the most accurate and best
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: polls out there. I think Rasmussen is one of the
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: best polls out there. So you have to really be
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: careful and watch the data because what's that old line,
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: Figures don't lie, but liars figure. And that is the
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: same thing in poling.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: Levin passed the hour doctor Bob McClure with us from
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: the James Madison Institute. You and I were just talking
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: about early voting and early voting turnout and mail in voting,
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: and of course a lot of people zeroing in on
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: what's going to happen in Pennsylvania. Sure, and there's been
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: a pretty dramatic shift in Pennsylvania in terms of to
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: your point of identifying as Republican versus Democrat. But what
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: are the early numbers telling you?
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  Speaker 3: There are two things going on in Pennsylvania that I
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  Speaker 3: think are fascinating, although they're not all. It's not all
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  Speaker 3: peaches for the Republican Party. One is that in twenty twenty,
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: Democratic Party had about a million, almost a million person
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  Speaker 3: advantage in voter registration. That's been cut down to almost
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: three hundred thousand. So what has happened is that more
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: people in Pennsylvania have registered Republican in the last four years.
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  Speaker 3: They're moving towards the Republican Party. Okay. Having said that,
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  Speaker 3: the other piece of interesting news is that Kamala Harris
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: year to day now this could change because the Democrats
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: are outstanding at a ground game, and when they are behind,
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: they drive that pressure for a greater ground game. But
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  Speaker 3: she's running about fifty percent below behind. Excuse me what
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: Joe Biden was at this point in the election. And
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: so what that means is that not as many Democrats
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: are requesting or sending in their mail in ballots in Pennsylvania,
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  Speaker 3: the Republican Party will still be behind on election day
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: in terms of votes. Okay, but see the state of
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: Pennsylvania does things differently than Florida. And Florida as you vote,
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: as you mail in your vote, you're counted. It's counted.
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: Preston Scott Bob McClure. We are counted. You get a
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: little email or a text that says your vote's been counted.
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: Now nobody knows how you voted. But every day in
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: Florida you can go on Twitter and say one hundred
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: thousand Republicans voted eighty thousand Democrats. In Pennsylvania, they don't
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: start counting votes until election day, which is asinine, but
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: that's the way they do it. So having said that
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: she's running behind about fifty percent from where Joe Biden was.
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: He won state of Pennsylvania by one seventy thousand votes.
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: Maybe I'm trying.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: The numbers in these swing states were really small, and you're.
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: Seeing that across the board in Wisconsin, in Michigan and
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: some of these other states. She is trailing badly in
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: mail in and requested ballots. She's trailing in African American men,
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: she's trailing in African American women, not trailing Trump, trailing
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: what Joe Biden was doing.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: In Then we talked about it last hour, Joe Biden
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: got ninety percent of the black vote. She's right now
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: polling at seventy eight percent. That's a huge, a massive swing.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: Let me ask you this, when when you step back
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: and look at the numbers. Should should Republicans be bullied
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: at all by the fact that Trump always underperforms others
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: because people don't really say they're going to vote for
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: the guy.
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: There's no doubt, no doubt about it. I may have
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: said this on your show before, but I saw a
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: bumper sticker four years ago said vote for Trump. No
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: one has to know. And that's the mentality of a
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: Trump voter. With polling, so, he underpolled by about three
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: to four percent in sixteen, he underpolled by about three
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  Speaker 3: to four percent in twenty twenty. And if they are
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: even in national polls, he's gonna win the nat He's
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: not only going to win the electoral College, he's gonna
• 7:48
  Speaker 3: win the popular vote, because don't don't you know. So
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: when you look at the polls, the national polls, you know,
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: not state by state national polls, there are two things
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: you got to think about. One, Trump typically is underpolled
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: by about three percent three and a half percent. And
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: two California and New York where until recently, Trump just
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: did a rally in California. He doesn't expect to win it,
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: but he's doing it for the congressional for the House
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: members they are running. He's going to do one in
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: Madison Square Garden. He doesn't expect to win New York,
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: but he's doing it for the congressional delegation there for
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: the House members.
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: But when the.
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: Polls are even, that includes California New York where Republicans
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: traditionally don't contest, so it overinflates the number. Yes, Trump
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: typically under polls by three and a half percent.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: When you factor in what we were talking about previously,
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: that they're overpolling on the Democrats side of the ticket
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: in some of the polls, that makes it even worse. Yeah,
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: I mean I didn't think for the Democrats.
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I didn't think Trump was going to win the
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: national vote, like the popular vote. I think he's got
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: a real chance to do that today.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: A few more minutes, Doctor Bob McClure with the James
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: Madison Institute. He carves out time monthly to come visit
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  Speaker 1: us and share some thoughts. What did Florida get right
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: when they had the debacle in two thousand with the election,
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: because boy, Florida's run a tight ship with elections.
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, they got a number of things right. It
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: took a while. Yeah, I mean we hadn't.
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: It didn't.
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: It didn't happen overnight. I think the key you know,
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: in Florida has every form of voting there is, right,
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: So we have mail in, we have absentee, we have
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: day of we have every form of voting. We have
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: weeks of voting.
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: Do you like that? No? Yeah, me either.
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: No I don't, but I think the genies out of
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: the bottle for now. And so no, I don't like it, but.
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: At least we require people to be who they are. Right.
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: Well, there's several things we've done properly. One we've cleaned
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: up the voter roles. That's critically important. I don't know
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: if you saw what's happening in Virginia with Glenn Youngkin,
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: who is doing what his Democratic predecessors did previously, what
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: Tim Kaine, governor Democratic governor in the early nineties of
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: Virginia signed into law which was mandating the cleaning up
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: of voter rolls, and lo and behold today doj is
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: suing Virginia, the Commonwealth of Virginia for doing that. Crazy.
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: So in Florida, we clean up the voter rolls, we
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: do a much better job with signature signature verification, we
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: do a much better job. We count our votes as
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: they come in. So, as I said earlier today, you
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: know how many d's and rs have voted. Now you
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: don't know how they voted. And Florida has a huge
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: number of MPAs, so you don't know how they voted,
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: but you know that those are already in the hopper.
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: They've been counted. And so signature verification, cleaning up the
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: voter rolls, count the votes ahead of time, all of
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: those things, voter ID, all of those things that we
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: have in Florida, and there's a whole other list of
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: things that we've done right. We're a state Preston that
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: has twenty three million people. We have one thousand people
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: moving here today. We have an elderly population where numbers
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: are passing away. We have two different time zones, and
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: we know by midnight Eastern who's won every race up
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: and down the ballot. And you're telling me you can't
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: do that in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, California. The left wants chaos. Yes,
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: they want chaos because if they have to argue policy,
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: they lose. So they always claim Jim Crow two point
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: zero disenfranchisement, chaos, chaos, chaos, and Florida has figured out
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: how to remove the chaos of voting and counting votes.
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: And guess what. As we have done that, the left
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: has to argue policy Florida and they lose. And Florida
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: has become more and more read as we have figured
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: out how to make sure every vote counts, easy to
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: vote for citizens, hard to cheat. And if you get
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: that right, it's very simple. The left loses, and they
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: lose dramatically because the American people don't want I'm not
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: talking about old time Democrats. That's different. My parents were
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: old time Democrats. That's not what I'm talking about. I'm
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: talking about the left. The left wants chaos because they
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: can muddle the message, they can claim X, Y and z.
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: But if you remove chaos and you focus on policy,
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: conservatives win.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: The next time you and I visit, we're going to
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: have an election in the rearview mirror. We hope, we
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: hope we'll know what's happened. We hope it's not going
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: to be a bunch of litigation. You know my personal thoughts, Bob,
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: I hope that the numbers are sufficient that questions can't
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: be raised. I'll be polite and put it that way.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: What do you think we'll be looking back and seeing
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: in the White House, in the House and the Senate.
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: Today now tomorrow. I mean, we just had potentially a
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: third assassination attempt on Donald Trump in California. So I
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: can only say today, I think Donald Trump wins the election.
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: I think he comes. I think he could win the
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: popular vote. I think he's gonna win Pennsylvania, and I
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: think he's gonna win Wisconsin, maybe Michigan. He's gonna win Arizona, Georgia,
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: and North Carolina. I think the Republicans, if they get
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: to fifty two, they're gonna be satisfied. I think there's
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: a chance to get to fifty three.
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: Or gout Texas with Ted Cruise.
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: As now, I think he's gonna win, Okay, I do,
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: And then I think the House will expand the majority
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: by just a few three four seats. That's my guess.
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: So fifty two. Anything north of fifty two in the Senate,
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: the Republicans will be ecstatic. I think they'll expand a
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: little bit of majority. And I think Trump going to
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: California and going to New York is directly. For that reason,
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: he's trying to make sure they hold the House. That's
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: the problem, and I think today Trump wins the national election.
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: Can't wait to talk in a month.
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: Thanks for coming to it, Thanks for having me.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: My friend doctor Bob McClure with the James Madison Institute,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: my guests. He joins me on the third Tuesday of
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: the month here on The Morning Show with Preston Scott