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Episode 1: It’s Never Too Early To Talk About The 2026 Senate Races · Decision Desk HQ Podcast

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  Democrats would have to pick up four net seats in the 2026
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  Senate elections.
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  If you were just simply looking at the math and totally
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  ignorant of the geography
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  SPEAKER_01: and history of each state,
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  SPEAKER_01: you'd go,
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  SPEAKER_01: well,
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  SPEAKER_01: that's pretty easy.
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  SPEAKER_01: For Democrats,
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  the only seat that they could target that Republicans control
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  in this election is
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  SPEAKER_01: Susan Collins in Maine.
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  SPEAKER_01: Times change.
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  SPEAKER_01: States change over time.
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  SPEAKER_01: That's the only true constant is change.
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  SPEAKER_00: Hey there, welcome to the Decision Desk HQ podcast.
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  SPEAKER_00: I'm your host, Jeffrey Skelly, Chief Elections Analyst at DDHQ.
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  SPEAKER_00: On this maiden episode of the show,
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  SPEAKER_00: we're going to talk about the 2026 midterm battle for the U.S.
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  SPEAKER_00: Senate.
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  SPEAKER_00: Yes,
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  SPEAKER_00: I know it's over a year away,
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  but it's obviously something people are talking about all the
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  time already.
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  SPEAKER_00: You know, we got some news out of Texas earlier this week.
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  SPEAKER_00: that Wesley Hunt, a representative there, was running for Senate.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so that's thrown that race for a loop.
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  SPEAKER_00: So this is a live conversation.
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  Things are happening that are going to affect how these
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  elections play out next year.
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  SPEAKER_00: But more broadly,
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  SPEAKER_00: we're going to go over some of the larger trends at play,
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  SPEAKER_00: the challenges each party faces,
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  and what the current outlook is right now based on what we know
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  for control in next
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  SPEAKER_00: year's race.
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  SPEAKER_00: And to help me with this topic will be Brandon Finnegan.
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  SPEAKER_00: Brandon is the founder or co-founder.
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  We had some debate about this in pre-show of DDHQ in terms of
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  how he is the founder.
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  SPEAKER_00: Let's be clear.
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  SPEAKER_00: And a longtime election observer, to put it mildly.
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  SPEAKER_00: I remember years ago,
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  SPEAKER_00: you know,
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  SPEAKER_00: when I first started out covering elections and DDHQ was starting out.
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  SPEAKER_00: And of course, I noticed DDHQ was starting.
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  SPEAKER_00: It was before I was part of it.
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  And I remember that Brandon sort of became known as the
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  Pennsylvania whisperer who
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  foresaw the possible swing to the right that eventually helped
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  Donald Trump carry
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  SPEAKER_00: the state in 2016 and bring us into our current political era.
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  SPEAKER_00: So, Brandon, thank you for joining me.
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  SPEAKER_01: Hey, it's great.
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  SPEAKER_01: It's great to be on.
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  SPEAKER_01: And I feel honored to be on the inaugural of this.
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  SPEAKER_01: So that's quite nice.
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  SPEAKER_00: It seemed like you'd be the appropriate person because A,
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  SPEAKER_00: you know a lot about politics and we could talk about it.
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  SPEAKER_00: And B, you helped found DDHQ.
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  SPEAKER_00: So it just made perfect sense.
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  SPEAKER_00: But I will say that,
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  SPEAKER_00: sadly for Brandon,
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  Pennsylvania will not be a part of our discussion because the
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  Keystone State
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  doesn't have a Senate race on the ballot in 2026 that's next to
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  due up in 2028 when
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  SPEAKER_00: John Fetterman's running for re-election.
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  SPEAKER_00: Instead, 35 other states will have Senate seats on the ballot.
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  33 are regularly scheduled,
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  six-year terms in the Senate that are due up in 2026.
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  And then two others are special elections for seats that would
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  not normally be up in 2026.
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  And those are Ohio and Florida,
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  which you may have noticed,
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  Vice President J.D.
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  Vance,
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  he left behind a seat in Ohio that's since been filled by John
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  Husted.
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  SPEAKER_00: And then in Florida, Marco Rubio became secretary of state.
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  SPEAKER_00: So he left his seat.
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  SPEAKER_00: And now Ashley Moody is the sitting senator there.
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  SPEAKER_00: So both of them will be up in special elections next fall.
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  SPEAKER_00: So,
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  SPEAKER_00: Brandon,
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  SPEAKER_00: just to start out,
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  SPEAKER_00: having sort of laid out the land here,
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  SPEAKER_00: I should say for listeners,
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  SPEAKER_00: just a reminder,
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  SPEAKER_00: just the simple math before before I turn to you.
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  SPEAKER_00: It's 53 to 47 in favor of the Republicans right now in the Senate.
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  SPEAKER_00: That's including the two independents who caucus with the Democrats.
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  SPEAKER_00: So just knowing that simple math and that J.D.
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  Vance is the current vice president and that he would break any
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  ties in the Senate,
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  SPEAKER_00: that means that for control to be up for grabs or to actually switch,
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  SPEAKER_00: I should say,
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  Democrats would have to pick up four net seats in the 2026
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  Senate elections.
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  SPEAKER_00: And so I was kind of curious for your sort of initial thoughts on
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  the senate picture as we see it right now 13 months out as you
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  pointed out before
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  we got started well you know i'm no spring chicken i was born
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  in 1985 and in my
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  lifetime you know to say that all the out party only needs to
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  flip four seats if
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  you were just simply looking at the math and totally ignorant
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  of the geography and
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  history of each state you'd go well that's pretty easy because
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  heck that happened
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  SPEAKER_01: more than those seats flipped in
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  1994 in 2000 in 2006 in 2008 in 2010 in 2014 we've had a number
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  of cycles uh in my
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  in my lifetime at least a short lifetime where that has
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  happened where the out
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  party has flipped more than enough seats to to win the white to
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  win the uh control
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  the u.s senate sorry almost slipped out of there because i'm
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  still thinking of 2024
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  SPEAKER_01: the um
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  SPEAKER_01: The structure of that is you win plus four.
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  SPEAKER_01: That puts you at 51 seats because remember 50-50 results in J.D.
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  SPEAKER_01: Vance still breaking the tie.
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  SPEAKER_01: So that does not give you control.
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  SPEAKER_01: You need to win four seats outright.
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  But then the math gets really hard once you start to look at
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  the lay of the land,
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  SPEAKER_01: because how many seats are actually up for grabs right now?
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  SPEAKER_01: You know what we have up.
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  You've got twice,
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  nearly twice as many seats that are Republican held the
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  Democratic.
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  SPEAKER_01: So that kind of gives the Democrat.
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  SPEAKER_01: OK, great.
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  SPEAKER_01: There's a lot of there's a lot of land here.
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  SPEAKER_01: But the problem is a lot of that land is very, very, very dark red.
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  SPEAKER_01: Right.
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  SPEAKER_01: So,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: even if you were to consider,
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  SPEAKER_01: you know,
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  SPEAKER_01: 20 years ago,
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  SPEAKER_01: maybe you would consider Ohio and Florida to be swingish states,
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  SPEAKER_01: really proven themselves no longer to be swing states.
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  SPEAKER_01: They've been pretty solidly Republican now for quite some time.
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  Even in the 2018 blue wave election,
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  Ohio voted to stay with a Republican for governor.
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  SPEAKER_01: And in Florida,
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  SPEAKER_01: of course,
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  they elected both Rick Scott for Senate and Ron DeSantis for
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  governor in 2018.
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  SPEAKER_01: And it's only gotten redder from there.
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  SPEAKER_01: So those states are effectively off the table,
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  which is mind-blowing to anyone that's at least our age
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  thinking growing up,
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  SPEAKER_01: well,
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  SPEAKER_01: these states were always contested,
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  SPEAKER_01: right?
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  SPEAKER_01: I mean, going to the 80s, the 90s, 2000s, constantly contested.
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  SPEAKER_01: Heck, Sherrod Brown just lost in 2024.
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  SPEAKER_01: That's also kind of the interesting nature of the Senate, right?
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  SPEAKER_01: It's everything staggered.
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  SPEAKER_01: There's six-year terms.
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  SPEAKER_01: So in six years, a lot can change in the country.
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  SPEAKER_01: You can have profound changes.
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  SPEAKER_01: In just two terms of a senator's lifetime,
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  SPEAKER_01: a senator's experience in the Senate,
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  SPEAKER_01: you can see a dramatic change.
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  Sherrod Brown got elected in 2006,
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  which was a wave year for the Democrats.
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  SPEAKER_01: 18 years later, but it was only three terms later, he's out.
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  So the math gets hard for the Democrats and the fact that the
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  lay of the land isn't
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  SPEAKER_01: perfect for them.
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  SPEAKER_01: Most of those red states are pretty much off limits.
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  SPEAKER_01: No one's honestly expecting,
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  SPEAKER_01: anticipating a Democrat to contest Montana,
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  SPEAKER_01: West Virginia,
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  SPEAKER_01: Idaho,
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  SPEAKER_01: South Dakota,
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  SPEAKER_01: Arkansas,
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  SPEAKER_01: Mississippi,
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  SPEAKER_01: Alabama,
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  SPEAKER_01: Tennessee,
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  SPEAKER_01: South Carolina,
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  SPEAKER_01: Wyoming,
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  SPEAKER_01: Oklahoma.
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  SPEAKER_01: So all those states are totally off the table anyway, right?
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  SPEAKER_01: The number of actual states, then it still gets kind of tough.
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  SPEAKER_01: Iowa voted double digits for Donald Trump.
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  SPEAKER_01: Texas voted double digits for Donald Trump.
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  SPEAKER_01: So even if Texas Senate race becomes interesting because of the primary,
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  SPEAKER_01: it's still a bit of a reach.
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  SPEAKER_01: So you're real shot as a Democrat to win enough seats in the Senate.
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  You have to win North Carolina at this point,
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  which they have a solid candidate in Roy Cooper.
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  SPEAKER_01: That was important for them to get that candidate.
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  SPEAKER_01: They got him.
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  SPEAKER_01: So, OK, maybe that's one seat, maybe.
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  SPEAKER_01: Do we flip the Democrats managed to flip Maine?
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  SPEAKER_01: Susan Collins proved herself to be very tenacious in 2000 and 20.
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  SPEAKER_01: And frankly,
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  virtually every Democrat that could run for the Senate in Maine
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  has opted instead
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  to run in the governor's race instead because of Susan Collins
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  and how formidable
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  SPEAKER_01: she is as a candidate.
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  SPEAKER_01: So let's say the Democrats win Maine and they win.
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  SPEAKER_01: of the state of North Carolina.
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  SPEAKER_01: Where else are they going to go?
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  Not to mention Republicans do have pickup opportunities and the
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  Senate is not clean.
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  The Senate has very rarely been clean cut in presidential
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  elections,
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  in midterm elections.
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  SPEAKER_01: Heck, go to 2018.
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  SPEAKER_01: Democratic wave here,
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  SPEAKER_01: the Republicans added seats,
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  SPEAKER_01: net seats to the Senate,
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  SPEAKER_01: to the Senate majority.
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  SPEAKER_01: They lost seats in in that election.
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  SPEAKER_01: They lost the state of Nevada, but they picked up other states.
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  SPEAKER_01: They picked up Florida.
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  SPEAKER_01: They flipped Florida.
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  SPEAKER_01: They flipped North Dakota.
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  SPEAKER_01: They flipped Missouri.
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  So it's not always guaranteed that you are going to have all
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  the seats break in one direction.
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  It's actually rather rare for you to see all the seats break in
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  one direction.
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  It requires an extraordinarily strong wave and you need enough
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  opportunity seats,
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  seats that are already in states that were trending kind of
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  your way or more ripe
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  SPEAKER_01: for the picking,
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  SPEAKER_01: so to speak.
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  SPEAKER_01: And there's not a lot of land there for them.
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  SPEAKER_01: The Republicans have opportunities in Michigan and in Georgia.
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  SPEAKER_01: These are two states,
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  SPEAKER_01: Michigan especially,
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  SPEAKER_01: which is an open Senate contest,
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  SPEAKER_01: which is going to have a contested Democratic primary.
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  SPEAKER_01: And Georgia,
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  SPEAKER_01: where they have an incumbent,
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  but Republicans are starting to amass and they're going to
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  start throwing their
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  SPEAKER_01: hands into this and trying to get into that in that race.
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  SPEAKER_01: Georgia, of course, voted for Donald Trump last year.
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  It voted rather easily Republican in almost every statewide
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  race in 2022.
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  SPEAKER_01: So these are prime targets the Republicans are going to be going after.
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  If the Democrats managed to pick up four states,
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  they would have to,
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  again,
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  get Maine.
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  SPEAKER_01: They'd get North Carolina.
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  SPEAKER_01: They'd have to go for a reach state at that point.
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  SPEAKER_01: Maybe you try to get Iowa.
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  SPEAKER_01: Maybe because it's an open race.
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  SPEAKER_01: Maybe you get Texas.
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  Maybe if there's a lot of bloodletting in the Republican
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  primary,
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  a lot of infighting.
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  SPEAKER_01: But then you can't afford to lose Michigan or Georgia at that point.
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  And there's no guarantee,
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  again,
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  that everything's going to break your direction.
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  That is much rarer when we watch these contests as they unfold
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  over the years.
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  The House may go in one direction,
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  but the Senate can be who knows where it goes.
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  SPEAKER_01: And you got to draw an inside straight effectively.
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  SPEAKER_01: If you're the Democratic Party,
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  SPEAKER_01: at least 13 months out,
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  SPEAKER_01: who knows what can happen over 13 months,
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  SPEAKER_01: of course.
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  SPEAKER_00: Brandon, that was a fabulous overview.
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  SPEAKER_00: I have brought up, if you're watching this,
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  SPEAKER_00: Substack or YouTube,
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  I have brought up a map of to kind of get at Brandon's point of
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  the seats that are
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  up for 2026 and by the party that currently controls them and
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  their vote in the
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  SPEAKER_00: last presidential election.
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  SPEAKER_00: And it really speaks volumes that for Democrats,
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  the only seat that they could target that Republicans control
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  in this election that
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  SPEAKER_00: is
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  SPEAKER_00: He's held by a Republican,
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  but voted for Kamala Harris in the last election is Susan
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  Collins in Maine,
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  SPEAKER_00: who,
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  SPEAKER_00: of course,
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  may have the sort of the strongest bipartisan appeal of any
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  senator or her or Lisa
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  SPEAKER_00: Rakowski from Alaska at this point in the Senate.
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  And she's obviously made it made a career of surviving in a
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  light blue state.
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  SPEAKER_00: So she will, to your point, Brandon, will not be a walkover at all.
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  SPEAKER_00: And then Michigan and Georgia are two states that Donald Trump carried.
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  SPEAKER_00: And you have Gary Peters retiring in Michigan,
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  SPEAKER_00: Democratic incumbent,
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  SPEAKER_00: and then John Ossoff in Georgia running for reelection.
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  SPEAKER_00: Both are very highly competitive states,
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  but both are states that Donald Trump carried and that
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  Republicans have sort of,
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  SPEAKER_00: you know,
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  SPEAKER_00: they're clear targets for them.
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  SPEAKER_00: And then after that, it does get super difficult.
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  SPEAKER_00: I mean, if you think about
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  SPEAKER_00: Ohio and Iowa.
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  SPEAKER_00: So at this point,
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  SPEAKER_00: Sherrod Brown's running in Ohio against John Husted,
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  SPEAKER_00: who's the appointed incumbent.
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  SPEAKER_00: In Iowa,
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  SPEAKER_00: there are a few Democratic candidates running and Joni Ernst,
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  SPEAKER_00: the incumbent senator,
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  SPEAKER_00: is retiring.
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  SPEAKER_00: So you have an open seat there.
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  And we do know that open seats tend to see more movement or at
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  least are more more
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  SPEAKER_00: likely to than a seat with an incumbent.
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  SPEAKER_00: But at the same time,
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  SPEAKER_00: you're talking about states that Donald Trump carried by,
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  SPEAKER_00: what,
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  SPEAKER_00: 11 points in the last presidential election?
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  SPEAKER_00: I mean, this is 11, 12 points.
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  SPEAKER_00: So,
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  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
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  SPEAKER_00: for Ohio,
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  it's just shy of 10 points to the right of the country in the
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  last presidential
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  SPEAKER_00: election.
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  SPEAKER_00: And historically, that has been...
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  SPEAKER_00: really tough turf for that or more for the opposition party to flip.
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  SPEAKER_00: And to this point,
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  SPEAKER_00: I have another table here from something I wrote a little while back,
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  SPEAKER_00: where if you just look at the seats that the opposition party,
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  SPEAKER_00: so Democrats in this case,
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  SPEAKER_00: flip,
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  SPEAKER_00: it's they will flip seats that lean more than five points,
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  SPEAKER_00: more than half the time,
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  SPEAKER_00: or at least they have since 1994,
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  SPEAKER_00: that lean more than five points in their direction.
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  SPEAKER_00: So like if Kamala Harris won a state by five,
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  SPEAKER_00: six,
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  SPEAKER_00: seven points,
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  it would lean more than five points to the right of the country
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  in the last
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  presidential election and would therefore be a good target for
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  the Democrats.
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  SPEAKER_00: But for Republicans defending so many red seats,
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  SPEAKER_00: The moment you get to the 10 point mark to the right of the country,
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  SPEAKER_00: going back to 1994,
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  SPEAKER_00: at least,
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  only twice has a party lost a seat that was 10 or more points
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  in their direction in
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  SPEAKER_00: a midterm when they held the White House.
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  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
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  Those two cases were Illinois in 2010 after Barack Obama won
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  the presidency in 2008.
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  SPEAKER_00: And then John Tester in Montana in 2006 after and both actually,
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  SPEAKER_00: funny enough,
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  SPEAKER_00: leaned 18 points throughout the country.
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  SPEAKER_00: I remember that.
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  SPEAKER_00: And it's it's not really necessary to know,
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  but just know that those states did not seem probably at this
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  point in the election
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  SPEAKER_00: cycle to be obvious,
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  SPEAKER_00: obvious bets in a midterm election to flip.
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  SPEAKER_00: But they did.
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  SPEAKER_00: But at the same time,
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  SPEAKER_00: 2010,
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  SPEAKER_00: 2006,
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  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
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  SPEAKER_00: I love your views on this,
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  SPEAKER_00: but that,
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  SPEAKER_00: to your point about things can change so much in a couple of terms,
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  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
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  SPEAKER_00: that actually was a while ago now.
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  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's been quite some time since we've seen something like that.
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  It doesn't mean,
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  again,
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  it doesn't mean next year couldn't be a huge wave.
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  It also doesn't mean that we're all used to the midterm pattern
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  being a punishing
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  SPEAKER_01: thing for the incumbent party.
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  SPEAKER_01: We've seen that in our lifetime numerous times.
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  SPEAKER_01: But in 2022,
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  SPEAKER_01: because of other factors,
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  SPEAKER_01: most notably the Supreme Court decision in about May of that year,
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_01: it was a middling kind of midterm gain for the Republican Party.
• 14:18
  SPEAKER_01: In this upcoming midterm,
• 14:21
  depending on how the current state of affairs arranges itself
• 14:25
  within the Democratic
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_01: Party,
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_01: does it organize itself?
• 14:27
  Does it kind of pull all the individual teams that are angry at
• 14:30
  each other and
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_01: still fuming over 2024's loss?
• 14:33
  Do they pull together enough to actually pluck some
• 14:36
  opportunities out of all of this stuff?
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_01: And you have to look at states that are moving.
• 14:41
  Again,
• 14:42
  you need to look where are the states that are trending towards
• 14:45
  you?
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_01: And that's where this map becomes especially hard,
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_01: because if you're looking at net trends in this map,
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_01: there are hardly any towards the Democratic Party within the red block.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_01: Florida, absolutely not.
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_01: Ohio, absolutely not.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_01: Iowa, no.
• 15:02
  SPEAKER_01: Texas looked like it was going that way.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_01: Who could forget all the talk of Blex's for God knows how long?
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_01: That just never materializes.
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe this is the year for Texas.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_01: But again, it's really hard.
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_01: There's such a huge lift.
• 15:17
  Not to mention that Texas is an incredibly expensive state to
• 15:21
  launch a campaign in.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_01: It's the second largest state in the country behind California.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_01: Multiple major media markets that you have to win in.
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_01: And yes, while on paper, the margins can be thin.
• 15:31
  For example,
• 15:32
  Donald Trump only winning in 2020 by about five or six points.
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_01: That's still hundreds of thousands of ballots that you have to overcome.
• 15:41
  It's not like it is in some of these other situations where
• 15:44
  always 1%,
• 15:45
  2% margin.
• 15:46
  But that translates to only 10 or 20,000 votes because the
• 15:49
  state is smaller.
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_01: No, that's a substantial hill to climb that you need to account for.
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_01: In the Democrats' favor, in my opinion, is differential turnout.
• 15:58
  This is something we've seen very evident in the presidential
• 16:01
  cycle last year.
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_01: Republicans turned out in droves.
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_01: They turned out in areas that they did not show up for in the midterms.
• 16:08
  They did not show up for in special elections leading up to the
• 16:10
  presidential election.
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_01: But they were everywhere.
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_01: Every rock you could, you turn over rock, there's more Republicans.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_01: You walk down the street, there's more Republicans.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_01: You look in your own closet, there's more Republicans.
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_01: They're everywhere.
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_01: But they were absent in the midterms comparatively,
• 16:25
  SPEAKER_01: and they really weren't there at all in special elections.
• 16:28
  The Democrats have become a party of college educated voters
• 16:32
  who show up and vote
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_01: in virtually everything.
• 16:34
  They will vote in a race for a ballot measure for who's going
• 16:37
  to elect dog catcher
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_01: next year if they could,
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_01: because they just want to vote for all that stuff.
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_01: It's the inversion, in fact, for a lot of us who've been around long.
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_01: We remember this.
• 16:46
  With the shoe being on the other foot back in the late 2000s
• 16:50
  and the 2010s,
• 16:51
  it was the Democratic Party that had this turnout problem where
• 16:54
  you had this grand
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_01: coalition for Obama.
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_01: They would all show up in 2008 and they showed up again in 2012,
• 17:01
  SPEAKER_01: much to the chagrin of Mitt Romney and his team.
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_01: But in 2010, they were nowhere to be found.
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_01: And especially in 2014,
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_01: which had the lowest turnout since,
• 17:10
  SPEAKER_01: I believe,
• 17:10
  SPEAKER_01: the 1930s in a midterm election,
• 17:13
  Republicans just won everywhere because the Democrats were
• 17:15
  nowhere to be found.
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_01: So when you have differential turnout,
• 17:19
  SPEAKER_01: that can benefit a party that's,
• 17:21
  SPEAKER_01: well,
• 17:21
  SPEAKER_01: the party gets out of power.
• 17:23
  They're the ones that tend to have the voters that show up for
• 17:25
  everything.
• 17:26
  They may start nudging some of these states a couple of points
• 17:29
  more in their favor.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_01: But again, it's a couple of points.
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_01: No one is expecting Tennessee to flip blue.
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_01: No one is expecting Kentucky, another open seat, to flip blue.
• 17:40
  I know there's people who believe it could because,
• 17:42
  hey,
• 17:42
  we got the right candidate,
• 17:44
  Kentucky.
• 17:45
  And it's a state that voted- Are you saying Amy McGrath is the
• 17:47
  right candidate?
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_00: She just announced that she's running for Senate again.
• 17:50
  SPEAKER_01: Well, she could raise another $100 million.
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_01: I'm sure she could- Light it on fire, you know?
• 17:55
  SPEAKER_01: But, and this is the thing, again, especially if you are really agitated,
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_01: You're a Democrat.
• 18:00
  You don't like what you're seeing in the country because you
• 18:02
  don't like Donald Trump.
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_01: You don't like the Republicans in power.
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_01: You don't like all the people in the White House.
• 18:06
  SPEAKER_01: You don't like everything you see.
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_01: You will be motivated to not only vote,
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_01: but support candidates,
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_01: do phone banking and donate a lot of money.
• 18:14
  I need people to please not put that much emphasis on how much
• 18:18
  money someone has raised.
• 18:20
  Because you will see oodles of money dumped into completely
• 18:25
  meaningless races,
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_01: mainly because it's your money.
• 18:28
  SPEAKER_01: You can spend it how you want to spend it.
• 18:29
  And people have unlimited money in this country when it comes
• 18:32
  to elections.
• 18:33
  SPEAKER_01: But that's your money to burn, I guess.
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_01: No one's expecting a race in the middle of, say, Appalachia.
• 18:40
  Even if you get a popular Democrat,
• 18:42
  the local guy becomes all the rage and
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_00: Or you get like Andy Beshear to run.
• 18:48
  Or runs all these ads on YouTube and he raises $50 million and
• 18:52
  he loses by 17 points.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_01: That's how that's going to go.
• 18:56
  SPEAKER_01: Instead of 21.
• 18:57
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's not about money.
• 18:59
  SPEAKER_01: Money, it distracts you.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_01: Well,
• 19:00
  the other thing I wish people please do not do is do not pay
• 19:03
  attention to any
• 19:04
  SPEAKER_01: polling right now about next year.
• 19:06
  SPEAKER_01: It is absolutely worthless.
• 19:08
  SPEAKER_01: But there is something that I would say you should look at.
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_01: If you're watching incumbents who are running for reelection,
• 19:14
  SPEAKER_01: and this is something that was a tell for me back in 2014.
• 19:17
  SPEAKER_01: It was a tell for a lot of people back in 2006.
• 19:21
  SPEAKER_01: Watch the percentage that the incumbents are getting in polling.
• 19:26
  One fascinating thing from 2014 was there were a number of
• 19:30
  incumbent Democrats,
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_01: including Mark Pryor of Arkansas and Landrieu of Louisiana,
• 19:36
  SPEAKER_01: who were easily beating the Republican options in initial polling.
• 19:41
  SPEAKER_01: They were getting in the upper 40s or maybe mid 40s.
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_01: But what was a what was telling they never budged up.
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_01: They were about forty five, forty seven percent.
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_01: And that's where they polled and that's where they stayed.
• 19:54
  SPEAKER_01: And meanwhile,
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_01: the Republican candidate over time and as we got closer and closer,
• 19:59
  their number kept going and the Democrat got stuck at about
• 20:02
  their vote margin.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_01: Or frankly, that was an illusion in the case of Mark Pryor.
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_01: He lost his race by almost 20 points.
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_01: Watch how the incumbent vote share moves.
• 20:12
  If you see it stuck somewhere and you don't see any progress
• 20:15
  for it as you get
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_01: closer to the election,
• 20:17
  that incumbent probably is in a little bit more danger than
• 20:21
  their initial polling
• 20:22
  SPEAKER_01: numbers would indicate.
• 20:24
  SPEAKER_01: Just, you know, look at what I know.
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_00: No, no, no.
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's an excellent point.
• 20:29
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 20:29
  SPEAKER_00: it speaks to,
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 20:31
  SPEAKER_00: one of the complications when you're looking at election polling,
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_00: horse race polling.
• 20:36
  It's very important to know what the makeup of the undecided
• 20:39
  voters are in a poll.
• 20:41
  SPEAKER_00: Now,
• 20:41
  SPEAKER_00: sometimes,
• 20:42
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 20:42
  SPEAKER_00: poll,
• 20:43
  SPEAKER_00: early poll,
• 20:44
  somebody will be up 42-40 and there are a lot of undecideds and
• 20:47
  there's not really
• 20:48
  SPEAKER_00: kind of a clear...
• 20:49
  SPEAKER_00: angled on one side or the other in terms of where the undecideds fall.
• 20:52
  SPEAKER_00: But,
• 20:52
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_00: in the case of thinking about those polls in,
• 20:55
  SPEAKER_00: say,
• 20:55
  SPEAKER_00: 2014,
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 20:57
  you could look at the makeup of the undecideds and you could
• 21:00
  tell it was a
• 21:01
  SPEAKER_00: Republican leaning group for the most part.
• 21:04
  And of course,
• 21:04
  over time,
• 21:05
  as they became more engaged and got to know the Republican
• 21:08
  candidates,
• 21:09
  better and got off the fence in polls because people telling
• 21:13
  you something,
• 21:14
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 21:14
  12 months out from an election doesn't mean they're not going
• 21:16
  to end up voting and
• 21:17
  choosing the side that they would probably choose regardless
• 21:21
  once they get there.
• 21:21
  SPEAKER_00: And they,
• 21:23
  SPEAKER_00: of course,
• 21:24
  voted for the Republican and went on to and the Republicans
• 21:27
  went on to flip those
• 21:28
  SPEAKER_00: seats and a lot of other ones in twenty seven and twenty fourteen.
• 21:31
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 21:31
  SPEAKER_00: I remember,
• 21:31
  SPEAKER_00: look,
• 21:32
  SPEAKER_00: I came up in Virginia politics and I remember,
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_00: a good example of this was Mark Warner in twenty fourteen.
• 21:38
  SPEAKER_00: A guy who has seemed seemed impossible to beat in 2014.
• 21:43
  And Republicans actually were kicking themselves because I
• 21:46
  think they would have
• 21:47
  SPEAKER_00: spent more resources.
• 21:48
  Now,
• 21:48
  granted,
• 21:48
  we know that money is not the end all be all,
• 21:50
  as we just discussed.
• 21:50
  SPEAKER_00: But it's one of those things that just it could play at the margins.
• 21:53
  And if your margin is as slim as it was for Mark Warner in 2014
• 21:56
  when he won by like
• 21:58
  SPEAKER_00: half a percentage point in the end over Ed Gillespie.
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_00: in the Senate race there,
• 22:05
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 22:06
  then it could potentially have made a difference being just
• 22:09
  outspent as much as
• 22:10
  SPEAKER_00: Gillespie was.
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_00: But,
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_00: sort of thinking about this 2026 cycle and our point about,
• 22:17
  SPEAKER_00: look,
• 22:17
  SPEAKER_00: Democrats in a real tough spot.
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_00: They have a lot of seats that,
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_00: let me actually share this,
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_00: which I think is a really helpful chart in sort of making this point,
• 22:27
  SPEAKER_00: which is if you look at just all 100 Senate seats right now,
• 22:31
  SPEAKER_00: Republicans are... Of the 53 seats they control...
• 22:36
  52 of them were carried by Donald Trump in the in the last
• 22:40
  presidential election.
• 22:41
  SPEAKER_00: So in that sense, they alone have a majority from Trump one seats.
• 22:45
  SPEAKER_00: So if they hold on to seats that Trump carried.
• 22:48
  SPEAKER_00: And the good news for them is that.
• 22:50
  SPEAKER_00: Basically,
• 22:51
  SPEAKER_00: of the seats that are up in 2026,
• 22:53
  the only one of those that is obviously in danger is Tom Tillis
• 22:58
  in North Carolina.
• 22:59
  And then the one seat that they hold that is in a Harris one
• 23:02
  state in Susan Collins.
• 23:04
  SPEAKER_00: But even then, if they lose those two.
• 23:06
  SPEAKER_00: They're still 51.
• 23:06
  So if they hold all the seats in states that Donald Trump
• 23:10
  carried by at least 10
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_00: points,
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_00: they hold on to the Senate 51-49.
• 23:15
  SPEAKER_00: Even if Democrats,
• 23:17
  things go well for them everywhere else and they pick up 25
• 23:20
  seats in the House or
• 23:20
  SPEAKER_00: something.
• 23:21
  SPEAKER_00: They flip those two seats in the Senate.
• 23:23
  SPEAKER_00: It's just not enough.
• 23:24
  And this just gets back to the current advantage that the GOP
• 23:29
  has based on the map
• 23:30
  as things currently stand with where the parties are and where
• 23:34
  the states happen to
• 23:35
  SPEAKER_00: be.
• 23:35
  SPEAKER_00: To your point, though, this could change in four years.
• 23:38
  SPEAKER_00: It could change in six years.
• 23:40
  SPEAKER_00: But at this particular moment, I think it is interesting.
• 23:44
  SPEAKER_00: And it's coincidental.
• 23:45
  SPEAKER_00: It's totally a coincidence.
• 23:46
  SPEAKER_00: But it's interesting to me that in 2018,
• 23:50
  SPEAKER_00: You had kind of a reverse situation for Democrats as the as the party.
• 23:57
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, sorry.
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_00: In 2018, Republicans were in the White House.
• 24:00
  SPEAKER_00: Donald Trump was in the White House.
• 24:01
  And here we are,
• 24:02
  Donald Trump in the White House again for his second midterm.
• 24:06
  SPEAKER_00: Democrats were defending actually a lot of tougher seats in 2018,
• 24:10
  SPEAKER_00: and they ended up losing to some of those,
• 24:11
  SPEAKER_00: as you mentioned,
• 24:12
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 24:12
  SPEAKER_00: places like Missouri and North Dakota and Florida,
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_00: which in hindsight,
• 24:16
  SPEAKER_00: maybe they should have done better in.
• 24:17
  SPEAKER_00: But the way it was trending,
• 24:18
  SPEAKER_00: actually,
• 24:20
  maybe it was amazing that they came that close to holding on to
• 24:22
  it anyway.
• 24:24
  SPEAKER_00: But these were these were states that they they lost.
• 24:28
  And it was it was basically a situation where Republicans
• 24:31
  weren't defending many seats.
• 24:32
  Democrats had to defend a ton in that cycle,
• 24:34
  like two thirds of the seats that were up.
• 24:36
  SPEAKER_00: And they had to defend a bunch of seats in states that Trump had carried,
• 24:38
  SPEAKER_00: in some cases by large margins.
• 24:40
  SPEAKER_00: This time around,
• 24:42
  Republicans are defending a bunch of seats and Democrats aren't
• 24:46
  or not as many.
• 24:47
  But the ones that Republicans happen to be defending are
• 24:51
  basically almost the group
• 24:52
  SPEAKER_00: that they would most ideally have in an election,
• 24:55
  SPEAKER_00: a midterm election with the Republican president.
• 24:58
  SPEAKER_00: on the ballot in the sense,
• 24:59
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 24:59
  if they know that maybe the cycle goes against them and they
• 25:02
  lose some ground,
• 25:03
  they are the wave that Democrats need to wash up over sort of
• 25:09
  the beach or the
• 25:09
  SPEAKER_00: dunes,
• 25:10
  SPEAKER_00: you will,
• 25:11
  SPEAKER_00: of the Republican political position in the Senate.
• 25:14
  SPEAKER_00: It's pretty high.
• 25:15
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 25:15
  they're going to need quite quite a rush of water to get that
• 25:19
  high and actually
• 25:20
  SPEAKER_00: pick off a state like Ohio.
• 25:22
  SPEAKER_00: It's not to say it can't happen.
• 25:24
  It's just they are starting from a really tough spot to get
• 25:27
  more than Maine and North Carolina.
• 25:29
  SPEAKER_00: And those, of course, are not assured either way.
• 25:32
  SPEAKER_01: You know, look, history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
• 25:36
  SPEAKER_01: And I would suggest people really look back,
• 25:38
  especially those of you who are younger or following the
• 25:40
  Substack and getting into
• 25:41
  SPEAKER_01: elections and politics now,
• 25:43
  SPEAKER_01: really look back at the 2010 midterm election in particular.
• 25:48
  I would also suggest looking at 2018,
• 25:51
  2014,
• 25:51
  but really look at those previous midterms.
• 25:53
  2010,
• 25:54
  was always going to be a moonshot for the Republicans to flip
• 25:57
  the Senate in 2010.
• 25:58
  If you look at the map in 2010,
• 26:02
  the Republicans were down before Scott Brown won.
• 26:05
  SPEAKER_01: They were down by a massive margin in the Senate, right?
• 26:08
  SPEAKER_01: They were at 40 seats in the Senate.
• 26:10
  SPEAKER_01: The Democrats had 60.
• 26:11
  SPEAKER_01: So the Republicans would need a net 11 seats over the course of the year.
• 26:16
  SPEAKER_01: And they got Scott Brown in Massachusetts,
• 26:18
  SPEAKER_01: which,
• 26:18
  SPEAKER_01: hey,
• 26:18
  SPEAKER_01: everybody gets that one shot and that moonshot.
• 26:21
  SPEAKER_01: But it was extremely hard.
• 26:23
  SPEAKER_01: The map wasn't really there for them to make but so many gains.
• 26:28
  SPEAKER_01: And again,
• 26:28
  SPEAKER_01: they had a great time in Illinois,
• 26:31
  considering the fact that the seat had gone gone to their
• 26:35
  former their former
• 26:36
  SPEAKER_01: senator,
• 26:36
  SPEAKER_01: Barack Obama,
• 26:37
  SPEAKER_01: the now president,
• 26:38
  SPEAKER_01: president elect or president of the United States.
• 26:41
  SPEAKER_01: Illinois went to Obama by, what, 20 points?
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_01: And it voted for Mark Kirk.
• 26:45
  SPEAKER_01: So it can happen.
• 26:47
  But again,
• 26:48
  structurally,
• 26:49
  it's very difficult because of the nature of what is there.
• 26:53
  SPEAKER_01: What is the lay of the land, right?
• 26:55
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 26:57
  SPEAKER_01: You had Republicans trying to compete for California in 2010.
• 27:00
  You had Republicans trying to compete for Connecticut in 2010
• 27:05
  and Illinois.
• 27:05
  SPEAKER_01: They got Illinois, right?
• 27:07
  SPEAKER_01: But they failed to flip Connecticut.
• 27:09
  SPEAKER_01: They failed to flip California.
• 27:11
  So they were not going to get to that final crest that they
• 27:16
  needed to have.
• 27:17
  SPEAKER_01: I think 2010 is not apt in terms of what we're seeing this far out.
• 27:23
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, there's going to be a 60 seat switch in the U S house.
• 27:26
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think anyone right now is predicting that at all.
• 27:29
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but it's just good to watch how each of these races.
• 27:33
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, we are.
• 27:34
  SPEAKER_01: We have nationalized a lot of our politics.
• 27:37
  SPEAKER_01: But politics still remains partially local.
• 27:38
  SPEAKER_01: You still have local infighting that can affect the candidate,
• 27:41
  SPEAKER_01: local fundraising and,
• 27:43
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 27:43
  SPEAKER_01: um,
• 27:44
  making sure everyone's nice and feel and feels comfortable
• 27:47
  within the party.
• 27:48
  And they're all going to turn out and do what you need them to
• 27:50
  do for you in your state.
• 27:52
  SPEAKER_01: Um,
• 27:53
  SPEAKER_01: The reason that Cory Gardner won in 2014,
• 27:58
  part of the reason was he made nice with different divisions in
• 28:01
  the Colorado
• 28:02
  SPEAKER_01: Republican Party,
• 28:03
  SPEAKER_01: which had very infamously had a lot of infighting,
• 28:05
  SPEAKER_01: a lot of problems.
• 28:07
  SPEAKER_01: He befriended what would have been considered nowadays gadfly candidates.
• 28:12
  SPEAKER_01: Earned their respect,
• 28:13
  got them to campaign for him in addition to the moderates over
• 28:15
  in closer to the
• 28:16
  SPEAKER_01: Denver suburbs.
• 28:17
  SPEAKER_01: And he won in 2014.
• 28:19
  SPEAKER_01: Now, who would imagine Colorado voting for Republican now?
• 28:23
  SPEAKER_01: Because again, you know, times change.
• 28:26
  SPEAKER_01: States change over time.
• 28:27
  SPEAKER_01: That's the only true constant is change.
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_01: Live long enough, we will see a blue Texas.
• 28:34
  SPEAKER_01: You live long enough, you'll see a red California again.
• 28:37
  SPEAKER_01: It will happen.
• 28:38
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 28:38
  SPEAKER_01: States don't just stay permanently within one party.
• 28:41
  There's so many factors that kind of are at play both
• 28:44
  nationally and internally
• 28:46
  SPEAKER_01: that can push and pull states.
• 28:48
  But you at least get a little bit of the hint of this by
• 28:51
  watching what's been
• 28:52
  SPEAKER_01: happening in recent years.
• 28:53
  SPEAKER_01: And again,
• 28:53
  there's not much movement towards blue team blue in the states
• 28:58
  that are up for the
• 28:58
  SPEAKER_01: Senate that currently Republicans control.
• 29:03
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think you're exactly right.
• 29:05
  And I think,
• 29:06
  you know,
• 29:06
  thinking this far out,
• 29:08
  you know,
• 29:08
  what could change?
• 29:09
  SPEAKER_00: And maybe this is a good thing to close on is,
• 29:12
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 29:13
  SPEAKER_00: I get to come back to what do people think about President Trump?
• 29:16
  SPEAKER_00: What are they thinking about the conditions in the country?
• 29:18
  SPEAKER_00: And that's hard to say at this point.
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_00: But President Trump has had a fairly stable approval rating over time.
• 29:25
  SPEAKER_00: But I do think of one interesting moment.
• 29:28
  politically during his first term,
• 29:31
  that there were very special conditions involved.
• 29:35
  But it does bring to mind when I think about how do Democrats
• 29:38
  not necessarily luck
• 29:40
  SPEAKER_00: their way into,
• 29:41
  but find a path in any of these states that are going to be so
• 29:44
  difficult for them
• 29:45
  SPEAKER_00: to flip,
• 29:46
  SPEAKER_00: that the Ohio's,
• 29:48
  SPEAKER_00: the Iowa's,
• 29:48
  SPEAKER_00: that...
• 29:49
  In theory,
• 29:50
  could maybe be targeted,
• 29:52
  but are going to be really tough to actually flip.
• 29:55
  SPEAKER_00: And I think of Alabama in 2017,
• 29:57
  SPEAKER_00: obviously special case,
• 29:59
  SPEAKER_00: terrible Republican candidate in Roy Moore and a perfect storm,
• 30:04
  SPEAKER_00: really.
• 30:04
  But I think one feature of that perfect storm that I think does
• 30:07
  get overlooked
• 30:08
  sometimes is that was also basically President Trump's lowest
• 30:11
  point in approval.
• 30:13
  in in in his first term in office was basically right there in
• 30:17
  December of 2017 for
• 30:18
  SPEAKER_00: a special election.
• 30:19
  And so I think it's it's one of those things of timing matters
• 30:22
  a lot here where
• 30:24
  SPEAKER_00: where where attitudes toward the president,
• 30:26
  toward the economy and towards the lay of the land in general
• 30:30
  in this country come,
• 30:32
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 30:32
  SPEAKER_00: September,
• 30:33
  SPEAKER_00: October,
• 30:33
  SPEAKER_00: November of 2026.
• 30:34
  SPEAKER_00: And so things could change.
• 30:37
  But I think it speaks to how important it is for Democrats that
• 30:41
  those things do
• 30:42
  SPEAKER_00: change in their direction,
• 30:43
  because if they remain largely where they are or somewhere in
• 30:46
  the vicinity of where
• 30:47
  SPEAKER_00: they are right now and as polarized as things are.
• 30:51
  SPEAKER_00: Yes,
• 30:51
  SPEAKER_00: I do think to your point about differential turnout,
• 30:53
  SPEAKER_00: the Democrats will be in a position to gain.
• 30:56
  in some places because their voters are probably going to be
• 31:00
  somewhat more
• 31:01
  SPEAKER_00: motivated to turn out,
• 31:02
  SPEAKER_00: as is often the case in a midterm for the opposition party.
• 31:05
  SPEAKER_00: But to actually flip some of these seats to make the Senate control,
• 31:09
  SPEAKER_00: put it actually up for grabs,
• 31:11
  SPEAKER_00: they need more.
• 31:12
  SPEAKER_00: And so that's, I think, going to be really interesting to watch.
• 31:15
  SPEAKER_00: Brandon, I don't know if you have any final thoughts.
• 31:18
  SPEAKER_00: I don't want to cut you off.
• 31:21
  I would say my only final thought is because we're so far out
• 31:25
  from the election,
• 31:27
  SPEAKER_01: if you can get a mental snapshot of where the Leyland is,
• 31:30
  SPEAKER_01: where everyone's saying everything is right now,
• 31:33
  SPEAKER_01: and then you see where we're at in six months,
• 31:37
  SPEAKER_01: or you see we're at in six more months before the election,
• 31:41
  There will always be those who predict and make these broad
• 31:44
  generalizations of things.
• 31:45
  I've noticed that the people who tend to be the more cautious
• 31:48
  about,
• 31:49
  let's kind of wait and see.
• 31:50
  SPEAKER_01: Let's see how we're seeing the polling trending and who's fundraising,
• 31:55
  but also who seems to have a consistent message within the
• 31:57
  party that has the most
• 31:59
  SPEAKER_01: support.
• 32:00
  SPEAKER_01: It's not about where the money is.
• 32:01
  SPEAKER_01: how much money is raised.
• 32:03
  SPEAKER_01: It's who's raising the money.
• 32:04
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of times where this money seems to be moving to,
• 32:07
  it kind of gives you a final tell of where the parties
• 32:09
  themselves actually feel,
• 32:12
  SPEAKER_01: um,
• 32:13
  SPEAKER_01: the election is where they feel it's going.
• 32:14
  SPEAKER_01: Of course there could be those, that race that got away.
• 32:16
  SPEAKER_01: Cause Oh, this actually was right underneath our nose.
• 32:19
  SPEAKER_01: We could have won this like in Virginia in 2014.
• 32:21
  SPEAKER_01: Um,
• 32:23
  SPEAKER_01: But it's going to be an interesting year.
• 32:26
  I think a factor that hasn't really gotten a lot of attention
• 32:29
  is the fact that
• 32:30
  SPEAKER_01: Donald Trump is a lame duck.
• 32:32
  SPEAKER_01: He's not running a lot for reelection.
• 32:34
  SPEAKER_01: Like he's this is his second separate term.
• 32:37
  Both political parties are going to start muscling towards who
• 32:40
  they're going to
• 32:41
  SPEAKER_01: have as their nominee.
• 32:43
  We're assuming at this point the Republicans are going to
• 32:45
  nominate the vice
• 32:46
  president because typically the vice presidential candidate is
• 32:48
  the next person in
• 32:49
  SPEAKER_01: line.
• 32:49
  SPEAKER_01: But who knows?
• 32:51
  SPEAKER_01: The Democratic field, who knows what that looks like?
• 32:54
  SPEAKER_01: And if you have enough candidates,
• 32:56
  SPEAKER_01: if you have enough candidates that start muscling their way in for public
• 33:00
  SPEAKER_01: attention,
• 33:02
  SPEAKER_01: that starts to kind of push,
• 33:03
  SPEAKER_01: that may potentially push Donald Trump,
• 33:05
  SPEAKER_01: not necessarily out of the spotlight,
• 33:07
  SPEAKER_01: because let's be honest,
• 33:07
  SPEAKER_01: Donald Trump's always giving me the spotlight.
• 33:09
  but there's going to be so many different things on people's
• 33:12
  minds and things we
• 33:13
  SPEAKER_01: think are important right now.
• 33:14
  We're going to laugh about how little relevance they held for
• 33:18
  the election.
• 33:19
  SPEAKER_01: 12 months from now,
• 33:20
  SPEAKER_01: there's going to be somebody with eggs with egg all over their face,
• 33:23
  SPEAKER_01: predicting what they're going to predict for the future.
• 33:26
  SPEAKER_01: So nothing ages faster than people's visions for the future.
• 33:32
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
• 33:33
  SPEAKER_00: Uh,
• 33:33
  SPEAKER_00: Brandon, I think that's a great place to end.
• 33:35
  SPEAKER_00: I really appreciate you coming on and talking with me about this.
• 33:38
  It's a long way away,
• 33:39
  but people are already talking about it,
• 33:41
  thinking about it.
• 33:41
  And I think this was a really good primer for listeners and
• 33:46
  viewers who wanted to
• 33:48
  SPEAKER_00: sort of get an overall 30,000,
• 33:50
  SPEAKER_00: maybe occasionally we dip down a little lower in altitude,
• 33:53
  SPEAKER_00: look at what's going on.
• 33:55
  SPEAKER_00: in the U.S.
• 33:56
  SPEAKER_00: Senate race for 2026.
• 33:57
  SPEAKER_00: So with that,
• 33:59
  I will encourage you to check out all the things that we've got
• 34:03
  up on the sub
• 34:03
  SPEAKER_00: stack.
• 34:04
  If you want to follow election results on this November in 2025
• 34:08
  or in special
• 34:09
  SPEAKER_00: elections,
• 34:09
  SPEAKER_00: you should go to DecisionDeskHQ.com.
• 34:12
  SPEAKER_00: And I want to thank Brandon Finnegan,
• 34:15
  SPEAKER_00: founder of Decision Desk,
• 34:16
  SPEAKER_00: for coming on and chatting about this with me.
• 34:19
  SPEAKER_00: So Brandon, thanks so much.
• 34:21
  SPEAKER_01: It's great to be on.
• 34:21
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you for having me on.
• 34:22
  SPEAKER_01: This has been a great discussion.
• 34:24
  SPEAKER_01: Awesome.
• 34:25
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks so much.