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MEN'S NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET PICKS | Filling Out the Men's Tournament Bracket · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on Own
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's what I'm gonna
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: start off this show. Horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this, Man, with the slump continuing. Two
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four,
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: I have not had a good season. Man, with bookends
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm gonna.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Burn my Bruins hack Man, I don't know what is
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: going on with the Bruins.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: March Hape, is that what it is? I don't even
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: know it's March ninth. I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what data is anymore. But I don't
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man, back with you
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: after the worst day that I could possibly have, Back
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: with you as I always am until I die, at
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did not
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: go well for me. Own five. The worst month that
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: The slump praise, the slump of discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: other than potentially end it all.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: What's up? Everybody's towed back with you, toadstool sports. This
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: is gonna be me finally filling out my men's March
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Madness bracket NCAA tournament bracket. It's gonna be similar to
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: how I do all the other brackets on my show.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: If you're familiar with what I do, we fill it
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: out backwards, just like me. My brackets are built backwards.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: Gonna be similar to the women's one if you watched
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: that the other day, although I will say the women's
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: one I might make mine a little bit less aggressive.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: I said, I wasn't really gonna change it. I don't know, man,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: because I found the betting odds, like FD finally put
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: up the betting odds for round by round, and I'm
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: looking and I'm like, UCLA is like a pretty heavy
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: favor to make the final four. So I don't know
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: what's going on with like Pool Genius with their like
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: probabilities being way off from what the betting odds are
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: on that, so I think I might have to dial
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: that back a little bit. So I think if I
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: do make some changes to the women's I mean I
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: can mention it in the comments there, but I might
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: I might just flip put UCLA in the final four
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: instead of LSU. That might be one change, and then
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: I might not have Ohio State get to the I
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: gotta figure that one out. Maybe I still will have Oios.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I gotta figure that out. Ohio State
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: to the Elite eight was one of my other kind
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: of you know, like sort of leverage plays. I mean,
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: if you still want to do it, I think it's
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: fine because you're going to against the public. But the
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: UCLA one, I mean they're like minus three hundred to
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: make the final four. So I have no idea what's
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: going on Pool Genius. But I'm gonna use Pool Genius
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: to help me with this men's bracket as well. I mean,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: I pay for the product, so I'm not gonna show
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: it on the show because it's a paid product, but
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: you know, I'll mention what I'm doing while I'm filling
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: this out. But basically it's all about game theory and
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: it's about leverage. So basically what we're looking for is
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: we're not necessarily gonna just pick like what the odds say, like, oh,
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: this team has the best percentage to win, right, because
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: I'm I mean, we can look at the odds right now.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: I do have the odds up here. I'm gonna hold
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: on my sharing my screen. No, I'm not all right,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: that's my bracket. It's not filled in yet, but we
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: can look at the odds. I got FD up right now.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: That's to reach the final four for a national champion.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Whoa Duke's holy crap, what is going on with these odds?
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: Duke's odds are crashing? Dude, that's crazy. Is this like real?
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: What's happening right now? So it looks like all right,
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: So I'm still gonna make my point, Like, if you
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: want want to pick the team has the best odds
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: to win the championship, you'd pick Arizona right now because
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: they're plus three to ninety. But the thing is, if
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: too many people are picking Arizona, that's actually not what
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: you want to do because your goal is to beat
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: other people and how crazy you want to get, like
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: how risky you want to get with this strategy depends
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: on how many people are in your pool essentially, so
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: I usually do it like basically for like a smallish
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: like office pool. If you want to win one of those,
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean, Like, you also don't want
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: to be overly leveraged, Like you don't want to take
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: so many risks, that you have so many crazy things
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: going on in your bracket that it's just going to
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: be impossible to get all of them right, right, So
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: you want to start by picking the champion. You want
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: to pick the champion that has like the best combination
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: of the best chance to win, but is being underpicked
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: at the same time, if that makes sense. And then
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: from then on you want to work your way backwards
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: through the bracket and do the same thing for each
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: level based game. What's gonna wind up happening is we
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: are gonna wind up with a lot of chalk here,
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: especially like in the opening rounds, like I am gonna
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: have pretty much all favorites. That's just the way that
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: it is. Man, I know that's not fun, Like, oh,
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: it's not March Madness. But we're entering the age of
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: the nil on the transfer stuff to And I've been
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: talking about this, like last year, pretty much all the
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: top seeds advanced, you know, in the early rounds whatever.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be similar to that. Again, there's
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: just a huge gap. Like if you look at like
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: the top four seeds right now, they're all like double
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: digit favorites and in all of their games. So it's
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: like like, if you want to like one of them
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: is probably gonna lose, but if you want to try
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: to pick which one that might be, I mean, go
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: ahead and try to guess, you know, and you know,
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: as I go through it, maybe I'll mention which ones
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: I do think have the best chance to do that.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: And of course, if you watch my betting show in
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: the morning, I'm gonna talk about that as well, because
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: I'm just gonna analyze every game individually. But that's more
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: from a betting perspective, right, Like for those teams, like, yeah,
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: you think, oh, Northern Iowa has a good chance to
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: pull off the upset maybe against Saint John's, I do
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: feel that that might be the case. But I'm not
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: gonna pick a ten point underdog in my bracket when
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: the goal is to just get points and get who's
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: gonna win the game? Right, you know what I mean.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: But from a betting perspective, if you want to bet
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: in Northern Iowa like plus ten, you're getting all those points,
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: you know you can win the bet without them winning.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: That's a completely different scenario, you know what I mean.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: But then you're are by doing that, you are saying, yeah,
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: I think there's a better chance that they're going to
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: win that. But then it comes down to like if
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: you pick that in your bracket, yeah, you're gonna be fading,
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: Like like probably too many people are picking Saint John's
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: in that opening round game whatever, But it's like, you know,
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: like what are they They still have like a seventy
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: something percent chance to win probably in eighty something percent
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: of people are picking them, Like I don't think I
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: would do that, Like, yeah, it's technically leverage if you
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: fade them, but it's like not worth it when they're
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: that huge of a favorite, you know what I mean.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Like the leverage spots that I'm looking for are like
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: where is it like close to fifty to fifty? You
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: know what I mean? Like the that we're fading, I
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: want to be like less than sixty percent. You know
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: what I mean, I'm gonna fade like a less than
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: sixty percent spot in some of these cases, if that
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: makes sense. Media, what's up? Yeah? Game theory? Game gay?
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: Is that? What is that?
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: Is that?
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: From the Simpsons? I'm trying to remember what am I? Dude?
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: How do I not remember what that's from? Uh? Whatever? Yes,
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: we're going We're going backwards, So let's do it. Let's
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: just start it out. First thing we're gonna do is
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: pick a champion. And as you can see here, this
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: is getting ridiculous. Or Duke had the best odds to
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: win the championship at first, but now they have the
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: third best odds. It's gotta be because of the injuries. Man,
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Like we know that uh Foster, one of their guards,
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: is probably gonna be out maybe for the whole tournament,
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: and if he comes back, it's probably gonna be around
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: the final four. Uh No, Gungba is probably gonna potentially
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: miss a couple of the opening games. They might start
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: working them back in. I don't know, but I don't
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: know if this drop on Duke is actually justified. Like
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: dropping them down to plus five hundred seems a little
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: bit crazy. And now Arizona has the best odds to
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: win the whole thing at plus three ninety. Michigan is
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: really close at plus four hundred, Florida plus five fifty,
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: and then there's a pretty big drop off after that.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: The next best team is actually Houston at plus one thousand.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: But no real surprise that all the four one seeds
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: actually have the best odds to win this thing, which
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: pretty much tells you, yeah, we're gonna be looking at
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: chalk here. And I would say, personally, like, if you
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: look at like the history of you know, I should
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: bring up Ken Palm two, Like, if you look at
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: the history of what teams win the championship, they're usually
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: like top ten in offensive efficiency, a top twenty five
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: and defensive efficiency essentially, and usually they're not that fast
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: of a tempo. But the thing is, if you look
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: at like the teams that have legitimate shots to win
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: this thing, Duke is really the only one that has
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: like a slow enough tempo. I would say, Arizona barely,
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: I guess qualifies for that, But like, I don't know
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: if we'd want to do that or not. But Duke, Arizona, Michigan,
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: and Florida all four of them are top ten in
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: both offense and deepfense. And I would actually probably say,
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: you know, like based on the net ratings for ken Bomb,
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: that's the other thing. There's a huge gap here, Like
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Duke is at thirty eight in ken Bum's net ratings,
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: which is how good the team is. Essentially, we're looking
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: at like historic net rating numbers, like Duke was forty
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: towards the end of the season, Arizona is thirty seven
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: point six, Michigan thirty seven point five, and then there's
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: a big drop off to Florida at thirty three point seven,
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Houston thirty three point three, whatever, and then a couple
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: of thirty twos, Iowa State, Illinois Perdue at thirty one,
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: and then there's another big drop off to Michigan State
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: of about three. Now, there is another rule that the
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: team that wins the championship is usually within five net
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: rating points of the top team, if that makes sense.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: So really, I think you're limiting yourself to really just
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: I would almost limit myself to just Duke, Arizona, and
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Michigan to be honest for choosing a champion here, Like
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: there's just a big gap between the rest and I know,
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: a lot of people don't really want Duke right now
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: because they have those injuries. Michigan has the injury to
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: case on who's they're like sixth man, basically one of
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: their best bench guards. But ken, Michigan still win this
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: whole thing. I think they can even without that. I
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: think Duke still has a chance to win the whole
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: thing too, even with those injuries. And these teams are
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: just that good. And then Arizona, Like everybody's picking Arizona
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: now because Arizona is the team that doesn't have the injuries.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: They won the Big Twelve, which is like the best
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: conference right now whatever, or the best conference at the
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: top at least. So yeah, Arizona looks really good, But
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: do you really want to pick Arizona. I don't know.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: Michigan has a lot of really really good defense.
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: They're number one in defense, and they have like really
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: really good like defense against the three, Like out of
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: all these top teams, Michigan actually has some of the
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: best metrics there. But we won't get into it too
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: much here, but yeah, I think I would limit it
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: to just those few. Let's pick the champion here. Man.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Mostly you want to see who's being picked and at
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: what rate? Right, So Duke on ESPN is being picked
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: at twenty three point six percent, Arizona twenty point seven percent,
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Michigan fourteen point two percent. There's a pretty big drop
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: off there and then seven point six percent. So already
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: I think you can kind of see we're probably looking
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: at taking Michigan here because there's a big drop off
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: down to Michigan as the third most picked champion here,
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: and as you can see, Michigan has almost the best
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: odds to win the whole thing in the betting market
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: right now, Like they're just slightly behind Michigan, and Duke
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: has dropped behind both of them. So I can pretty
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: much tell you already I think we are gonna pick
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Michigan here, even though I'm worried a little bit that
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: they're a little bit too fast, But you know, it's
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: not like the be all end all here. I'm looking
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: at ah. I have pool genius in my other window here,
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: so I'm not gonna actually show but he what they
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: I should say are they update like constantly based on
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: injury information, betting odds, whatever. They have Duke being picked
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: twenty five point three percent, and I think theirs is
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: a combination of ESPN, Yahoo, Sought, you know, all the
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: different sites. I guess, so it's pretty close. And then
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: he's got Arizona at twenty one point six, Michigan or
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: they have Michigan fifteen fifteen percent, and then Florida six
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: point nine. It's all pretty close to what these numbers are. Yeah,
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: so out of all of those, the probability to actually
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: win according to pool Genius, for those teams Duke eighteen
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: point two percent, Arizona eighteen point eight, and Michigan fifteen
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: point eight. But as you can see, the betting odds
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: are actually even suggesting that Michigan's probably a little bit
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: better than that. And out of the three of those,
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: Michigan is the only one of those that has positive
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: leverage against how they're being picked. And then Florida does
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: actually have positive leverage as well, at nine point four
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: percent to win the whole thing according to pool Genius,
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: above being picked around seven percent. So Michigan is only
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: slightly positive leverage. But the fact that they're you know,
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: like six percent more likely to win the whole thing
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: and only like two to three percent less likely than
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: Duke in Arizona, and that's not not loogod what the
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: betting odds are saying right now. Either, I think we
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: have to do it. I think we have to go
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: to Michigan. Uh, so that's what we're gonna do. Michigan
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: also does have a pretty good path, to be honest
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: here with you know, an injured Texas Tech team here
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: is the five seed in their region. Alabama dealing with
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: more discipline problems and they have you know, one of
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: their best players is in jail. You know. I think
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: Tennessee is a strong sixth seed. Virginia, I'm just not
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: sure I trust their you know, lack of coaching experience whatever.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: Iowa State's good for sure, Like they're one of the
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: top teams. I think they're probably the second maybe third
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: best two seed. But they also suck at free throw shooting.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: Uh So, yeah, I don't have that much of a
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: problem with getting Michigan here. Uh They're gonna have to
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: run into Arizona though, in a lot of cases if
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: Arizona gets through their region. So that's kind of you know,
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: that's one issue in me have here half here, But
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: we're gonna take Michigan to win the whole thing. How
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: many total total points will be scored in the championship game.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean it's usually a little bit
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: lower scoring because it's the championship game. So I don't know.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: We'll go I don't know. One one forty. Maybe it
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: is a good kind of reasonable, slightly lowish number there,
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: but Michigan likes to pay fast, so whatever. Okay, Michigan
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: is the champion. Now the question is who are we
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: gonna have them facing on the other side. Looking at
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: the betting odds to reach the National Championship, on that side,
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: Duke still has the best odds to get there plus
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: two thirty Florida plus two sixty, and then nobody else
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: on the on the left side of the bracket is
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: necessarily that close. Houston is next at plus four seventy.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: I think were talking about the left side of the
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: bracket right now. Everybody's picking Duke to get there, but
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: we might want to just match it in this case. Uh,
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: let me see what Looking at Pool genus to make
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: the championship. Oh boy, wow, he's got Dupe very negative
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: leverage though they're being picked forty six point five percent
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: to make the championship and their odds are only thirty
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: point three percent, Florida all the way down at seventeen
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: point nine percent. Florida is plus leverage at three point
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: four percent, because they're only being picked fourteen point six
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: percent according to you know, the numbers we have on
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: pool Genus. Here, Duke is being overpicked by like fifteen percent,
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: sixteen percent, but their odds are like, not double, but
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: thirteen percent higher to get there than Florida's and almost
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: the same over Houston. Houston is a little bit less
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: than that, and Florida's more positive leverage in Houston and
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: has more positive and is more likely to get there.
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: So I think you have to either pick Duke or
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: Florida to get there. I think we're gonna just do Duke,
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: you know, like again, even if you're taking negative leverage,
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: if it's that much higher of a percentage, like you
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: have to try to kind of balance the two of
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: those things, you know what I mean, And like, you
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: don't want to differentiate yourself too, because we already differentiated
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: ourselves quite a bit with taking Michigan as the champion.
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: Right now, it seems like Duke is being picked by
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: the most public people that just threw their brackets in
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: there and then everyone is picking Arizona now, like all
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: the experts at picking Arizona, you know what I mean.
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: So I think Michigan, yeah, is the way to go,
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: but we don't have to differentiate ourselves that much in
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: the championship game here, and really throughout the whole season,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna be honest, it's really been Duke in Michigan
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: at the top for me, and then really then Arizona
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: slightly behind and that, and then really everybody else. So
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: I was kind of thinking it would be something like
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: this the whole time. Anyway, these games are gonna be
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: played in Indianapolis, by the way, if it matters Michigan's path. Actually,
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: as far as like where they're gonna play, I think
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: it's actually pretty good as well. Like I think they're
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: playing in Buffalo first, which isn't really that far away
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: from Michigan, to be honest, And then I forget where
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: the Midwest Region regionals get played, but it's not bad.
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: Like Michigan's travel throughout the tournament won't be that bad.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: So none of these top seeds really have that bad
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: of a trip, you know what I mean. But for
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: some reason, these West Coast teams seem to just not
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: do it, Like Arizona will be on the West coast
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: for this whole thing, like out in California, then have
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: to go to Indianapolis and they make the final four.
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't know, a little bit more of
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: a trip for them there. All right, let's figure out
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: the other final four here. We need to figure out
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: who is Duke. Well, I don't know which one do we?
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: Well we can go to. Maybe it'll be Arizona coming
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: from the west. Let's figure that one out odds to
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: make the final four. Let's let's take a look here
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: we got. Duke is minus one thirty, Arizona is a
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty favorite to get there, Michigan minus one thirty,
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: So all those teams are favorites to get there, and
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: then Florida is a plus one thirty small underdog to
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: get there, with Houston I think having the best odds
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: out of the two seeds to get there at plus
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: two thirty. So Florida, I mean the region is obviously
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: the closest because they were the last one seed, like
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: the fourth one seeds, so they got paired up with
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: the best two seed. But the committee actually got it right,
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: like Houston is good, but they also kind of screw
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: it up because I think the best three seed is
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: kind of also in that region, which is Illinois. Illinois
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: plus three seventy to make the final four, which is crazy.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: Let's see what pool Genius has to say about making
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: the final four here. Man, it's like negative leverage for
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: all these teams to get there, including Arizona. They're forty
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: eight percent to make it, but being picked fifty seven
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: point six percent to make it to the final four,
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: negative nine percent leverage really does kind of suck. But
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: if you're looking at the next best team to make
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: it out of Arizona's region, you drop all the way
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: down to Purdue with an eighteen point four percent chance
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: to get there, which is quite a drop off thirty percent.
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I'm willing to give that up. Man,
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: Just for plus three percent positive leverage, because only fifteen
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: percent of pickers are picking Purdue to make the final four,
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: I think we still have to do Arizona. They just
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: have such a high percentage chance to get there, even
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: though it's negative leverage because everyone's picking them. But I
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: mean their region is also pretty good for them to
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: get through here, I think, you know, if they do
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: run into Wisconsin, Wisconsin, I mean, they take so many
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: threes and Arizona doesn't take them, and if Wisconsin is
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: landing those threes, I mean, there is the chance, like
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: I think Arizona would actually like they would want Arkansas
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: more than one Wisconsin, I think because of the sheer
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: amount of threes. But other than maybe that matchup, I
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: don't see Arizona having that much trouble until I do.
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: Like Purdue, you know, Purdue has a lot of experience,
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: and that would be questionable. I think if you want
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: to put Purdue in the final four, I think you could,
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: like I would only do either Arizona or Purdue here,
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: though maybe if you're in like a somewhat larger pool,
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: Purdue taking the leverage makes sense. But thirty percent higher
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: chance that Arizona is gonna get there, I think we
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: do have to do it. This is gonna get real boring. Man.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: I apologize that we might wind up with all one seeds.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: And I know last year I had three one seeds
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: in the final four and four one seeds got there.
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: If you watched my thing last year, we just fucked
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: up with the different picks I got Houston into the
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: championship game, right, but I had Auburn winning the whole thing,
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: and really we were just relying on Florida to get
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: bounced at some point. It almost happened multiple times. Man,
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: and I had ruled Texas Tech to the Final four
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: last year. Florida was in the same part of the
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: bracket last year, Man, same spot, and we bounce them
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: with Texas Tech, and it almost happened. Man, oh Man. Anyway,
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: let's figure out who's coming out of the South for
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: us here in the final to get to the Final four.
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: Florida has the best odds, like I said, but at
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: plus one thirty, it's a close region. Houston and Illinois.
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: The problem with Houston and Illinois is they're gonna play
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: each other, right, Like, if they get that far, one
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: of them is gonna have to beat the other, and
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: that game is gonna be in Houston. Remember, so Houston
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: will have a home city advantage there if they play Illinois.
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: Illinois is an elite offense, so Houston's very good on defense.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: Houston could get physical with Illinois, though in Illinois you
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: know doesn't really love that. Man, It's gonna be tough.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: Let me see, let's see what we have going on
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: with the What does pool genius say about this here?
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: To make the final Yeah, to make the final four
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: out of that region, Florida thirty two point two percent
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: to make it. Houston very close behind that. But they're
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: both negative leverage. Florida's negative five percent leverage, Houston negative
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: six percent leverage. Houston's getting picked a lot, dude. They're
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: being picked almost as much as Florida to make the
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: fun of four here, and they're both being overpicked by
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: almost the same five six percent. Illinois would give you
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: five percent positive leverage, but their odds are almost half
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: at sixteen percent. Oh man, that's bad. That sucks, dude,
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: you know, I mean, I think we can't take Houston.
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: Houston has the most negative leverage out of all those teams.
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: So if you want like the higher percentage chance, I
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: think it has to be Florida unfortunate. But if you
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: want to go all leverage on that, we gotta go
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: with Illinois. So it's like, are we willing to give
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: up a sixteen percent spot there? I mean Florida at
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: thirty thirty two percent to make it. It does mean that,
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: you know, like the chances are that somebody else is
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: gonna get there instead of Florida. Man, that's a tough choice.
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: It depends, you know. You got again. You gotta kind
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: of like there's an art to this. You gotta figure out,
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: like do I want to give up the sixteen percent
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: for that positive leverage? You know what I mean, that's
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: the whole question here. Like everybody's taking either Florida or
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: Houston though, so you could really differentiate yourself. But yeah,
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: fuck it, let's do it. Let's go. Let's go Illinois.
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, Illinois has a really good path to the
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: Sweet sixteen. Man. Uh, but they're gonna have to get
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: through Houston. Yeah, this is great, dude. You know what
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: about dude, Vandy would be so insane though if we
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: did that. Let me see, Vandy is positive leverage, a
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: lot of positive leverage, actually a plus five percent, but
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: they're only nine percent chance to make it, so seven
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: percent less than Illinois. Yeah, that's wild. Illinois is actually
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: almost the same amount of levers. Shoe. Yeah, we're gonna
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: do it. We're gonna do Illinois to the final four.
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: I don't like it, man, I don't like it been Illinois, man,
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: I mean they are good. I mean they had a
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: lot of overtime losses late in the season. Oh man,
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: all right, yeah, we're doing it. Okay, now let's figure out.
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: All right, let's just go through. We'll go up to
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: the top left again. We gotta figure out who Wait,
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: what do we do here? We filled out the final four?
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: All right? We need who's gonna Who's Duke gonna play
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: in the Elite eight? Is next up here? All right?
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: Taking a look at the odds here, I should close
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: some of these odds to reach the Elite eight. Let's see.
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: I mean Duke Arizona, I mean, we already have all
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: these teams are like such like heavy favorites to get there.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: Connecticut is an underdog to get there. So that's interesting
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: at plus one thirty five, so we're kind of choosing
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: between them. Michigan State at plus one seventy five, this
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: is who's gonna play against Duke in that region, and
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: then there's a drop off to everybody else there. Who's
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: next in that region? I don't even know. Saint John's
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: at plus seven hundred. That's a massive drop off. So
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: I think we're gonna we got to pick between Yukon
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: or Michigan State to make it there. Yukon is very
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: negative leverage. They're being picked almost fifty percent of the
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: time to get to the elite eight. Everybody's picking Yukon
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: versus Duke pretty much, but they only have in reality
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: a thirty five percent chance to get there in Michigan
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: State is really not that much worse at thirty percent,
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: but Michigan State's also negative leverage to get there. It
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: looks like, so that sucks negative seven percent leverage. It's
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: not as bad as Yukon though. Wow. Yeah, I don't
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: like any of that. I really don't like that. So
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: we're to go after that. Who's got positive leverage there? Man,
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at I'm right now, I'm looking at, like
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: what the impact is here? Louisville is plus five percent leverage.
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: They have a fifteen point three percent chance to make it,
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: So it's about half UCLA fifteen point one percent, nine
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: percent positive leverage. If you take UCLA to make it, Wow,
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: that's crazy, dude. I mean you'd have UCLA bouncing Yukon
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: and somehow getting past the Michigan man that is I
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: don't know if I want to give that up, Like yeah,
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: but then you got negative leverage if you're picking, let
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: me see, what's what are UCLA's odds according to the
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: odds makers to get there plus seven hundred. Well, we
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: can't pick Saint John's because we already have Duke filling
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: that spot. So really we have to pick between UCLA,
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: Louisville's at plus seven hundred, Yukon plus one thirty five,
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: Michigan State plus Man. I don't know, man, I think
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: we got to just go with Michigan State. I think
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: I don't think we can get that crazy with the UCLA,
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: But dude, you know what, I would not be surprised
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: if UCLA beats Yukon. UCLA has been really good recently.
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: If you want to go UCLA to the Elite eight,
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: you could do it. I think Michigan State's path is
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: actually not that bad, like I think they're probably they're
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: gonna be at worse like a toss up against Yukon,
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: and more people are picking Yukon there. So yeah, even
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: though it's both negative leverage, which I don't like, let
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: me see here. Yeah, I know I'm not showing what
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at right now, but yeah, yeah, I mean
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: Yukon is just such negative leverage there, and Michigan State's
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: almost the same odds to get there, but less bad
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: leverage there. So we're actually still gain lever. We're gaining
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: leverage on the people that are picking Yukon at the
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: very least. All right, now, who's Arizona gonna I think
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be Purdue. Whoever Arizona is gonna play in
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: the final four. Let's take a look here. I mean,
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: most people are picking Purdue to get to that point.
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: So I mean, I guess Gonzaga is probably the other
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: possibility here. Let me see, usually you're looking between the
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: two and of the Purdue is actually a favorite to
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: get there, as you can see at minus one twenty,
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: but they are being picked at a little bit of
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: a higher rate to get there than that. Gonzaga is
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: plus two ten. I mean, that's not horrible. And then yeah,
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: I don't know who else would be there, But there's
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: all there's like a drop. I mean, who else is
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: even down in that region? I don't know. I mean,
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: who's who's Purdue gonna play? I don't know. I forgot
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: I don't have my lay of the land. Yeah, Purdue
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: is playing Missouri Miami. I don't want to pick either
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: of those. And then it's BYU Texas. I mean, that
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: game right out the gate is a toss up. So
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: I don't like that at all. Looking at Pool Genius
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: again to see who has the most positive leverage there
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: to make the Elite eight, Purdue is negative five percent levers,
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: but they're almost fifty percent. They're forty five point five
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: percent to get there, which the betting odds are actually
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: telling you it's a little bit greater than that, but
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: you know the you know, the oddsmakers have to charge
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: you a little bit extra for that though. Gonzaga is
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: actually slight positive levers with their of fifteen to sixteen
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: percent drop off in probability though, so that is a
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: pretty big drop off to get to that positive leverage there.
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: I think it's got to be Purdue plus I told
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: you that. I also don't hate if you put Purdue
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: to beat Arizona. I don't hate that either. We're not
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: gonna get too insane here. You know, you don't want
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: to be so highly leveraged that your bracket is just
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: gonna get totally destroyed, you know what I mean, Like
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: with those huge percentage drop offs, and I feel like
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: I did. I I don't know, man, I kind of
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: took one with with Illinois. I didn't. I let me
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: see here. But because we did that, you know, you
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: don't have to be higher leverage at other places. I'm
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: still worried about that that Illinois pick, to be honest, Yeah,
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: I mean that one just seems a little bit less
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: insane though, because like we're looking at yeah, Purdue like
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: almost fifty percent chance to get to the Elite eight.
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: Michigan State's quite lower than that. Those Again, if you
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: wanted to take like UCLA to get through that, I
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: probably wouldn't go with Louisville. Louisville's just way too high variance.
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: They take way too many threes. UCLA has been hot,
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: like they're actually good. So yeah, if you wanted to
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: put UCLA where I have Michigan State, I wouldn't hate that.
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: But you know, we're going with tom Izzo whatever. I
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: know a lot of people pick is though it'll go
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: too far. But all right, what else do we have
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: to fill out? This is going too slow here. We
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: need Michigan's opponent in the Elite eight. Here it's probably
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: gonna be Iowa State. But let's see Iowa State's minus
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: won twenty five to get there, so, according to the odds,
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: their favorite to get there. The other teams in that
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: grouping are Tennessee at plus five hundred, Virginia's where's Virginia
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: at Virginia's at plus two ninety. You know it's probably
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: gonna be I guess one of those two teams. Let's
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: say to make the Elite eight. There, we got Iowa
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: State forty three point eight percent. They're very negative. All
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: these teams are negative leverage, man, because everyone's fucking picking them.
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: But the drop off from Iowa State to Virginia is
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: like almost twenty percent, So that is a pretty big
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: drop off there. Yeah, I think we'll just go with
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: Iowa State there. I don't really I think Virginia's negative
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: leverage too. Actually, let me see, Yeah, Virginia's negative two
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: point nine percent. Like I don't even know what you
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: have to go to get to the really good leverage spot.
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: You have to get Tennessee. So if you want to
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: go Tennessee to the Elite eight, I mean it's a
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: drop off of Iowa State. It's got a forty three
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: point eight percent chance to get there. Basically, Tennessee is
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: all the way down at seventeen point two percent, so
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: you're taking a huge probability hit. But Tennessee is plus
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: seven percent leverage to get there. So that's like the
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: next leverage spot. There's if you want to go Tennessee
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: to the Elite eight, you you know, if you want
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: like a crazy leverage bracket, you could do that, but
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: again I think it's too much, like it's just too
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: highly leverage there. If you do that, you know, okay,
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: and then we need whoever Illinois, well, Illinois, Yeah, they're
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: gonna play Florida. I mean, there's we're not gonna pick
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: anybody besides Florida to get there in the Elite eight.
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: We're just we'd be passing up too much probability. Yeah,
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: they're over fifty percent to get there, even though they're
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: very negative leverage. I'm not gonna fade a fifty six
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: percent favorite to get there. And then we're their odds here.
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: Let's see, they're minus too thirty according to this to
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: get there. So yeah, we're not We'll have Florida in
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: the elle TOA. We're not gonna do anything stupid, all right,
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: And you know, again I'm considering Florida to the Final
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: four too. It's just like, I don't know, I feel
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: like not all the one seeds are gonna get there,
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: but it just seems too obvious that if one of
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: them doesn't get there, it would be Florida. But I
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, Florida, they have a really really strong
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: front court. It's just their guard play is a bit questionable.
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: And Illinois, you know, their offense is like elite, which
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: could carry them that far for sure. Like offense. We're
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: in the age of offense now. And you know me,
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: I do love defense. But Houston, Yeah, I mean, if
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: Houston gets behind Illinois in that theoretical matchup, Houston might
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: not have the ability to catch up. And that's kind
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: of thing. Even the game would be in Houston. All right,
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: Let's keep going. Let's who's duke gonna play in the
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: Sweet sixteen? Is next up? It's either gonna be Saint
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: John's or Kansas probably, And you know, I do like
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: Northern Iowa to cover against Saint John's. And I will
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: say it would not shock me if Northern Ioia beat them.
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: Northern Iowa they are a frustrating team for fast paced
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: teams like Saint John's. Northern Iowa's gonna play really slow.
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: They defend really well against the three, they're very sound. Fundamentally.
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: Saint John's relies on like turning you over, and Northern
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: Iowa doesn't turn it over that much, so they're not
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: a good matchup for Saint John's. Dude, I think Saint
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: John's will still win the game. They are, they're definitely
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: a good defensive team, but I think Northern Iowa might.
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't again, I wouldn't be shocked if they won
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: that game. Kansas, I don't really see them losing, although
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: they're like a mess, you know, as far as they're uh,
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: I don't know, they're like what do I even want
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: to say? Like their mental state with like Peterson, you know,
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: just seeming to be a total head case there. All right,
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: I'm looking, I'm gonna look at the odds here for
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: these teams to get there. Let's see, Saint John's is
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: slightly negative leverage, but they're more than fifty percent to
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: get there fifty one point four percent. Kansas is not
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: that far behind at forty point three percent, but also
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: negative leverage to get there. It seems like everyone is
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: picking Saint John's to get there, though mccan's, I don't know,
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: Kansas is just such a mess and Saint John's is
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: kind of an underseated team. Let's look at what the
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: odds say here. Odds to make the Sweet sixteen. Where
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: do we got Saint John's is plus one oh five.
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: Kansas is actually a favorite over them at minus one
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: oh five. That's interesting, So the betting odds are actually
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: telling you Kansas has slightly better odds to get there.
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: So Pool Genius is not really telling you the whole
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: story there. I mean, it basically looks like a toss up.
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: Saint John's is being picked a little bit more, even
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: though both teams are being overpicked. H he has got
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: the leverage about the same, But I don't know if
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: that's true based on the betting odds there. Let's have
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: Kansas get to that game. I mean, the other thing
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: you do have to consider is like the better coach.
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: A lot of times we'll get through that Sweet sixteen
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: matchup because it's the quick turnaround time. But here it's
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: like Self against Patino. I mean, they're both good obviously,
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: so yeah, you never know, but we will have Kansas
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: getting there. And then who's gonna play Michigan State. It's
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: either gonna be Yukon or Ucla. Here, let's see what
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: the odds say for that. Uh, Yukon to make the
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: Sweet sixteen, they're minus two thirty. I don't think we
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: can really fade that there. I mean, if you want
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: to go Ucla, they're plus two sixty. I don't hate it.
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: I mean I think they're they'd probably be about a
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: five point dog or so against I'm gonna move Pregame
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: over here because I'm used to having it over there.
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: They'd probably be about a five point dog against you
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: against Yukon if they get their Ucla to make the
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: Sweet sixteen. Thirty two is really not that bad. They're
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: plus fifteen percent leverage. Yukon though, yeah, sixty two point
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: seven percent to make it though, even though they're massively
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: negative leverage. We'll go with Yukon. But if you want
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: to go Ucla here, you know, I don't hate that
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: at all. Like I could see Ucla getting there. Man. Ucla.
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: They have a lot of talent there, and they've been
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: playing a lot better since they've had their guys healthier
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: and back. Although we don't know how healthy they are
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: at Billodoh. Seems like he says he's gonna play, but
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: he did get hurt in the Big Ten tournament. I
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: don't know, we'll see it, but yeah, if you want
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: UCLA to beat Yukon, I don't hate that at all.
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm just you know, I'm putting it out
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: there even though I don't have it in my bracket
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: right now because I'm trying to do the leverage thing.
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: I would not be shocked if UCLA knocked out Yukon.
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: It's just I think Yukon's a week two seed here.
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: But you will have the better coach, I would say,
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: in Hurley over on Mick kron I mean, dude, who
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: is gonna want to ref that game with uh Dan
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: Hurley against Dan Hurley and uh Mick Krohn and the
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: nobody's gonna want that. Nobody's gonna want to ref that? Yeah, yeah, Ucla. Yeah,
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: that's why you don't, dude, They're not gonna beat Michigan
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: State again. I had a bet on uc You know
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: that I bet UCLA in that game. It was because
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: of the spot. Michigan had not played yet in the tournament.
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: Ucla already had a game under their belt in the tournament.
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: That was a huge advantage to them. Michigan State was
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: gonna take them lightly because Michigan State had already blown
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: UCLA out by thirty points during the regular season and
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: Michigan State their last game had been against Michigan and
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: they were in that game with like four minutes ago.
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: It was a spot play. If Michigan State plays UCLA
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: again in the tournament, Michigan State is going to win
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: that game. I'm telling you right now. They're gonna make
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: the adjustments. Tom Izzo is the better coach. They know
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: what happened to them in that last game. It was
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: a bad spot for them. Michigan State will be about
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: a six point favorite in that game, probably on a
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: neutral and they'll win the game this time. Yeah, I'm
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna do it, dude, I'm not doing it.
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: This is all about the you know, the odds to
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: get to that certain point too. All right, Sweet sixteen
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: against Arizona. It's probably gonna be either Wisconsin or Arkansas, uh,
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: because they I mean again, these four and five seeds
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: are all big favorites to get through. Man, So we're
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: not doing anything that crazy, like there's just no real
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: leverage on these twelve thirteen seeds. I don't believe. Let's see,
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: Arkansas is minus one seventy to make the Sweet sixteen.
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: Everybody's picking them, so I don't know. Where's Where's Wisconsin at?
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: Where are they? Ohther they are plus one sixty five,
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: so I mean yeah, I mean it's a close call.
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: I think between the two, Arkansas is the favorite to
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: get there. Let's see, Arkansas is negative leverage or minus
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: seven point six percent leverage, fifty three point two percent
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: chance to get there according to pool Genius, which is
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: about right. Uh, they're being over were picked though. Where's
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin at? Wisconsin is very very positive leverage though they're
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: forty three point five percent, which isn't that bad, and
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: they're being underpicked by nine point five percent. I think
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: we I think we have to go with Wisconsin there.
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: Let me see. Yeah, I'm gonna do it. We're gonna
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: go Wisconsin is such high variance though, dude, you know,
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: and I don't like the spot for Arkansas tomorrow. I
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: don't really think they're gonna lose to Hawaii, even though
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: I might give out a play on Hawaii plus the
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: points because I don't like a spot for Arkansas, but
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know Wisconsin. They're just so high variance too.
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: They depend on are they hitting their threes? You know
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: what I mean. It's just there's a lot of levers there,
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: and it's not that much of a drop off between
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: the probabilities there. Again, it's uh fifty three point two
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: percent for Arkansas to forty three point five percent for Wisconsin,
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: so it's not that much of a drop off there.
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: So Wisconsin will be the way we'll go there. Man,
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: we're gonna be rooting for some of these four versus
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: five flip spots there. Arkansas will be a favorite in
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: that game, though, unfortunately, if that game does happen, let's see. Okay,
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: next Sweet sixteen game is this is? Oh? I was
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: gonna say this is gonna be interesting. I don't think so.
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be Gonzaga to get there. It
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: gets Purdue, I don't think it's even gonna be a question.
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: Let me see. I think they're gonna be too heavy
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: of a favorite to get there. Yeah, theirre minus too ten.
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: I don't think I'm gonna fade that. Let me see
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: Gonzaga fifty eight point nine percent. There's slightly negative leverage,
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: not by too much though BYU is actually more negative
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: leverage than that, and a drop off by thirty percent
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: to get there. Uh, they're like a toss up to
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: even get through Texas, Man, Texas is is higher leverage,
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: So yeah, we're gonna go with Gonzaga here. Texas is
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: about another ten percent drop off probability wise from BYU.
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: But yeah, we're gonna go with Goozaga there. Okay, Now
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: who's Michigan gonna play? Let's figure that out between probably
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: either Texas Tech or Alabama. Though Texas Tech, I mean
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: they're not that heavy of a favorite against Akron, but
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: I can tell you right now, Akron is the most
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: public twelve seeds, So I actually think Texas Tech is
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: gonna win even though they're without JT topping here. And
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: then Alabama, I mean just again, Alabama, they're internal. I
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: don't like it, man, I don't like it. Like I know,
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: you could say it's the injured player theory, like with
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: Holloway being gone their second best score. Oh, so they're
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: gonna step it up for I don't think so. I
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: think it's more of a distraction. Dude, he's not injured, right,
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: Like he got arrested for having a bound of weed
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: and failure to a fixed attack stamp. Now should somebody
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: get arrested for that? No, but it's still you know,
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: there's a lack of discipline under NATO. Its man. I
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: mean we had Alabama. You remember what happened to them
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: a couple of years ago when they were the overall
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: one seed and everybody was picking them. Oh, this Alabama team,
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: they score, it's on. And what happened to them? They
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: lost in the sweet sixteen to San Diego State a
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: better defense, and that was it for them. And you know,
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: it was that whole thing with Miles had been kicked
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: off the team because he shot a guy and they
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: couldn't prove that Miller or whatever given him the gun
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: and Miller was still allowed to play. It was insane, dude.
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't like Alabama to go that far
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: in this tournament. You know, they also play too fast
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: in my opinion, and they're two lop sided towards offense.
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: HOSTRA is an interesting matchup for them because Hostra is
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: gonna try to slow the game way down. Hostra is
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: they have decent size, they're pretty good fundamentaling Hostra. They
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: got a guy, Cruz Davis who's one of the most
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: talented players out there right now. Man, Like he's like
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: probably a top twenty player in the country to be honest.
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: Uh So that's interesting in that matchup. But let's see
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: what the uh the odds have here for this. Alabama
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: is a favorite at minus one fifteen, not a very
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: strong favorite. And what else do we have here? It
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: was Alabama and who's the oh Texas Texas Tech was
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: the other plus one forty. Yeah, and just for shits
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: and giggles, Yeah, Hostros plus twenty two hundred, man Akron
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: plus plus ten plus one thousand, they're ten to one.
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: That's not that bad. Yeah, you know, I just don't
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: see it. I think Texas Tech is being underrated right
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: now because of you know, they're bad finish to the
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: season and the top an injury. I actually think Texas
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: Tech is going to get through that. We'll see what
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: actually happens, but we might. We might be taking Texas
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: Tech to the Sweet sixteen here. Man, let me say
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: they're plus six point six percent leverage either forty two
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: point two percent to get there. Arkansas is fifty three
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: point two percent, So it's basically a toss up between
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: the two and Arkansas negative seven point six percent leverage zone.
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: We're doing it Texas Tech to the to the Sweet sixteen.
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: Oh boy, I don't like taking all these teams that
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: are like slight underdogs, although they're at least a very
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: small underdog Wisconsin, I'm worried about it. But so many
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: people are so high on Arkansas. Man, you know, we're
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: kind of we're doing the flip here and we're picking
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: all the like small underdogs in those four or five games.
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: All right, and then we have who IOW state is
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: gonna play here? It's probably it's gonna be either Tennessee
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: or Virginia. Let's see here are these odds updated? I
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: think they are yeah, SMUs gone, so yes, let me see.
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: Tennessee is plus one forty to get to the sweet sixteen. Uh,
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: Virginia is likely gonna be the favorite here. Let me
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: see minus one fifty, so they're a small favorite. Tennessee
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: is gonna be higher leverage though I could I already
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: know they will be. Let me see here, Tennessee is
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: only uh yeah, Tennessee's thirty nine point two percent to
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: make it there. Plus ten percent leverage. Virginia is fifty
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: three point nine percent. They're a little bit more than
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: a toss up, but they're very negative leveraged minus ten
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: point nine percent, so they're being overpicked by that much
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: to make it there. Mmmmm, yeah, you know it's gonna
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: be like it's gonna be a very close game there.
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: Let me look at the who's picking home real quick
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: here too, just to make sure. Yeah, I mean more
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: people are taking Alabama there, slightly over Texas Tech, not
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: by that much. Saint John's is very slight. Well, Arkansas
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: is being picked, yeah, sixty four percent over Wisconsinc. You know,
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: we are taking the Yeah, you know, the team's being
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: picked a little bit less in all those cases there.
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: But ESPN's percentages. But again, remember these are the percentages
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: for the people that have that specific matchup in the
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: two pick tomb, and I'm looking at the percentage you know,
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: total that people have picked them there. Anyway, let's do it.
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: Let's have Tennessee. I mean, I said, I don't even
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: hate Tennessee to make the Elite eight there. They're really
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: good deepfense. They're gonna have to you know, there, it's
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: gonna be an interesting matchup. Virginia is a good deepense too.
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: Both teams are good at rebounding too, so it's gonna
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: be an interesting game there, slow, deepensive game. Both teams
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: have like the same strength, so it's a really interesting matchup.
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: Maybe Tennessee will get through that on the quick turnaround
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: time because Tennessee has the better coach, I would say,
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: in Rick Barnes. Virginia just doesn't have that much experience
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: being in a spot like this, you know what I mean,
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: Like this is their first time I'm in the tournament
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: for a few years, and now they have Odam as
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: their coach there hasn't really done it before. I mean,
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: he's done a good job at that program. But that's
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: what we're gonna do. And then Florida is either gonna
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: play Vandy or Nebraska. I mean, you know, I'm not
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: really that high on Nebraska Troy. I mean, they're a
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: pretty sound team, like balanced team all around. We know Nebraska,
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: the pressure is gonna be on them. I mean, they
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: should win. They're a double digit favorite, but we know Nebraska,
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: they haven't won a tournament game in program history, and
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: this is like their best shot to do it. So
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: It's almost like we have to do it right, Like
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: the pressure is gonna be on them. So, you know,
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: I don't really like Nebraska to cover in that game,
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: but I think they should get that win. And then
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: if they get the win, the question is do they
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: eat you know, like are they gonna celebrate and be
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: you know and be in a letdown spot after that,
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: like we finally got this huge win, or is like
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: the monkey gonna be off their back. Oh, finally they
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: can breathe the side of relief and play better against
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: probably Vandy here. I don't I don't know what's gonna
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: happen there. Which one of these teams we're gonna pick though?
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: Between the two of them. Um, let's look at the
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: betting odds here, Nebraska is plus one twenty Vandy. Where
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: are they at? They must be the favorite to make
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: it through, right minus one thirty? Not a heavy favorite.
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: But let's see, I'm gonna look at pool genius again here, Uh, Vandy,
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: they're very very small negative leverage. They're fifty five percent
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: to make it through and being picked almost exactly at
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: that rate. Nebraska is higher leverage, uh at about forty percent. MM,
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: I don't know, do we give it up on that one.
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: Vandy fifty five percent out of the you know, out
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: of the five seeds to make it through Vandy actually
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: has the best odds, according to Pool Genius, at least
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: to make it through room. Even though the betting odds
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: are saying something a little bit different. They actually have
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: the best five. They're like kind of an underseeded five seed. Man,
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: it's actually them. Then, they actually have better odds than
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: all the four seeds. By the way, it's in order,
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: it's them than Arkansas, then Saint John's, then Alabama, then Wisconsin,
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: then Texas Tech, then Kansas. So yeah, what do we
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: do here? For Kansas? It was only like an eleven
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: percent drop off though from Vandy. Ugh, I don't even
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: know if I like that Kansas pick, to be honest.
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's just both teams negative leverage there. Ah man, Yeah,
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: I kind of hate it. Yeah, I kind of hate
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: all of that, to be honest. Let me see here,
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: and then we got this one. I think we're just
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: gonna go Vandy here, let me see, I mean this one. Yeah,
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: I just don't know if I care about that much
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: leverage there, you know, I'm I don't like it, but
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: you know, I'm considering maybe flipping that to Saint John's.
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't. I don't love what I'm
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: seeing here, man, It's just such it's such a tough call.
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: But again, the odds for Saint John's. Kansas was actually
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: favored in the betting market though, so you know, hmmm, yeah,
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: I don't like it how I'm going by the betting
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: market in some cases, I'm going, you know, going differently
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: in some of these other cases. Whatever, All right, let's
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: finish this bracket, man. I think we're overthinking it a
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: little bit here, man. And you know, we'll see if
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: I end up changing any of these things, but you know,
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: I don't know that I will. All right, and then
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: we have that's all the sweet sixteens, right, No, no, no, yeah, no, uh.
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: This one's gonna be Houston. I don't even think I've
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: a look. Houston will play Illinois there. Houston is gonna
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: be a huge favorite to get through that. Yeah, minus
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: four twenty five. We're not picking against that, all right.
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: Then it's just the first round matchups and that's it. Man.
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: So we got Ohio State against uh TCU. Here. You know,
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna for this. I'm gonna just consult pregame and
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: just try to predict it that way. Ohio State is
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: a two and a half point favorite. The money's coming
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: back on TCU, though, I know it seems like the
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: majority of people are picking Ohio State there. Looking at
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: what pool Genius has to say about that, he's got
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: Ohio State actually positive leverage though he has them winning
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: at a higher rate, or they have them winning at
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: a higher rate. They're being picked at around fifty eight percent. Uh,
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: the minus two and a half is pretty close to
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: equating to that. Yeah, I don't know what is the
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: who's who's picking whom have for this fifty whatever? Ohio State, Yeah,
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: I mean they've been a better team recently. I like
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: this is a tough matchup, dude, I like both these teams,
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: Like Duke, I think this is gonna be one of
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: their more difficult matchups for their path here man against
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: either Ohio State or TCU. Yeah, it's interesting. We'll pick
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: Saint John's to get through. I mean they're a huge
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: favorite there obviously, even though I like Northern Iowa to
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: cover to be honest, Yeah, the money is coming in
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: on Northern Iowa there by the way. So that's interesting.
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: All right, then let's see what else do we have here?
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: Louisville and South Florida. Dude, So Michel Brown Junior is
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: not playing for Louisville. He's their best player, and that's
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: knocked the line down. But now I'm not gonna say
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: it's the injured player theory spot because he's been out already.
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: But the public is all over South Florida. They're just
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: such a trendy pick here. Man. Eighty five percent of tickets,
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: only eighty two percent of the cash on them. I
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: think we should just take Louisville minus four and a
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: half way favorite is obviously not nothing, and they're actually
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: positive leverage. There's sixty seven percent to make it according
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: to pool genius, and being picked less than that. So
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: South Florida is being way overpicked. I can't find South
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: Florida in here. What the fuck other they are? S Florida? Yeah,
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: all right, the majority is still picking Louisville here.
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: But.
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a pretty you know, sixty one percent is
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: not that big. We'll take Louisville, you know, I'll talk
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: about it more tomorrow morning. But South Florida, I mean,
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna match up as well against
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: teams like Louisville that chuck up threes. Although it's gonna
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: be high variants. Louisville's gonna make their threes. But the
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: one thing Louisville's done well this year's beat teams that
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: are worse than them. Like, they just haven't done well
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: against teams that are better than them South Florida. The
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: only team kind of similar that they played was Alabama,
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: and they didn't do well in that game, I believe,
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: So whatever, and then we are taking UCLA here against
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: uc APP obviously since I think they have you know,
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: I like I said, I think they actually have a
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: decent shot to get through more rounds than this. Like,
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: if you wanted to take them to do that, I
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: would not hate that they're down to a five and
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: a halfway varry here, but it looks like they are getting
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: the money here. Central Florida sucks, dude, Like, I think
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: they're one of the worst bubble teams here. I don't
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: like them at all. And UCLA is actually positive leverage.
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: They're not even being picked highly enough according to pool Genius,
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: So we're going with them there Whenever you see those
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: like seven to ten matchups, people tend to think it's
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: a closer matchup than it really is. You know what
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, sixty six percent taking Ucla, they're actually don't
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: think that's high enough. So that's for read harder they're there.
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: I'm taking Ucla to win that game, and again, it
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: wouldn't shock me if they beat Yukon. I just can't
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: do it for these bracket purposes here Utah State and Villanova.
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: It seems like everyone's picking Utah State, but they are
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: favored here. I don't like Villanova, dude. Actually, here, forty
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: nine percent are picking Utah State on UESPN, even though
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: they're the favorite according to yeah, fewer than according to pool.
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: Gene is yay, he's got forty eight percent picking Utah State,
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: but they're fifty seven point two percent favorite to win
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: the game. So yeah, we'll take Utah State. The money's
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: coming back into Villanova. But I don't like Villanova, dude,
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: I mean Big East team, you know I don't like it. Well,
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: we'll take Utah State there, and the nine seed is
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: a favorite there. I'm not impressed by the Big East
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: at all. Really, Saint John's and Yukon are pretty good.
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: But other than that, it's a week league. It doesn't
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: impress me. Man, you know, so Utah State will be
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: the play there not gonna be a play for me,
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: I don't think, but you know, I mean to me,
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: I just think it's like that thing, oh the Mountain West,
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: Like they never win in the tournament, right except for
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: that San Diego State run. They have that thing about them.
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: But Utah States won a couple of games I think
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: recently in this tournament, so you know, and they dominated
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: that conference this year pretty much. It was a fairly
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: competitive conference. We are going to take Arkansas to beat Hawaii.
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: Of course, they're a huge favorite, so don't I don't
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: think we need to overthink that, even though I think
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: they're in a bad spot, so I might recommend taking
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: the points with Hawaii tomorrow. Hawaii is actually a good
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: defense and I think the spot sets up better for them,
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: So that might be preview of tomorrow morning. That might
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: be the only play I give out tomorrow, but we'll
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: see a lot of people. I don't think you're gonna
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: like that. And BYU Texas is super interesting because you know,
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: I don't think BYU is very good. They're without Richie Saunders.
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: They've had a huge drop off, Like the team out
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: of these teams with injuries, BYU has had the biggest
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: drop off. Man. Now the game is in Portland, which
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: is you know, Texas just played last night of course
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: in Dayton, and they're gonna have to now travel to Portland.
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: But these playing teams a lot of times, they do
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: play better. And I know we're playing you know, we're
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: already picking Tennessee to beat Miami Ohio. I know, but
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: Tennessee is a double digit favorite in that game. This
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: is gonna be Texas might actually be favored against BYU,
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: to be honest, like, I think, you know, if there's
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: gonna be an eleven over six, which I think there
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: probably will be at some point, this is probably the
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: likeliest one. Again. BYU bad defensively al though so is Texas.
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: But Texas might slow the game down on BYUISH. BU
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: doesn't want BYU hasn't played for a while, so they
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: might be rusty. They rely on offensive timing. It seems
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: like everybody kind of overrates BYU right now because Debansa
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: is a really good player. I'm not really buying it.
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: The money is coming into Texas BYU is actually a
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: two and a half point favorite here, but the fifty
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: seven percent of tickets on them, fifty one percent of
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: the cash on Texas. You know, I might give out
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: a plan. This might be tomorrow. I don't know if
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: this is tomorrow, No, this is yeah, this is tomorrow.
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: I might give out a play in Texas tomorrow and
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: we'll take Texas in the bracket there. Yeah, I mean
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: they're definitely gonna They're gonna be massively underpicked because everybody
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: just picks against the playanes right, seventy five picking BYU
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: there eighty three percent, or picking Tennessee. By the way,
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: I'm just not gonna go against that big of a
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: favorite Miami, Ohio. Maybe they won't be public anymore, who knows,
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: But yeah, we're gonna take Texas here BYU is being
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: way overpicked, and I'm assuming that's gonna be the case
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: here as well. Tennessee. Yeah, they're just a big favorite.
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: Slightly negative leverage there BYU is massively negative leverage here,
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: although cool Genus has them as a sixty two something
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: percent chance to win that game. But in a game
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: where the line is two and a half and I
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: like the underdog there. I'm usually gonna just pick the
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: underdog to win it out right, So that's what we're
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: gonna do there, Okay. And then Miami Missouri is a
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: very tough one as well. Uh, this game is in
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis, Missouri, by the way, so that's an advantage
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: for Missouri here. I don't love either of these teams,
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: to be honest. Missouri, they might come with a little
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: bit of a chip on their shoulder because everybody's saying, oh, Missouri,
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: they should have been in the play in, like they suck.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: They shouldn't be a ten seed, you know what I mean.
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: And ken Baum does have them like somewhere outside the
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: top fifty. I think he's got Miami like inside the
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: top thirty. I think for Missouri they're actually plus nine
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: percent positive leverage according to pool genius. He's got Miami
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: only a fifty percent favorite to win that game, and
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: they're being picked way more than that. So there's massively,
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: well not massive, but big negative leverage on Miami. I
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: guess they'd be a big sixty one percent of the time,
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: but they're not winning at that rate. Missouri's taking the
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: money and the line of Miami's down to two, So yeah,
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: we'll take Missouri there, will live in miss there. We'll
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: take the ten seed in that matchup, All right, Michigan
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: is gonna play either Georgia or Saint Louis in that one.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: The public is actually picking Georgia a little bit here
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: at fifty six percent. They're probably favored because they're an
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: SEC team. The money looks like it's coming in on
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis. I know Saint Louis wasn't impressive at all
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: down the stretch, but they were really really good offensively
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: early on, and they played kind of a similar style
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: to Georgia, like both teams are gonna be going up
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: and down the court. I think it's gonna be a
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: high scoring game. But Saint Louis is deepfense, believe it
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: or not, as better than Georgia as though, so I'm
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: probably gonna agree the money's coming in on Saint Louis,
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: at least for now at sixty seven percent. Now again,
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: I reserve the right to maybe make some tweets here
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: before tomorrow morning, which if I decide to, maybe I'll
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: call that up. But we'll take Saint Louis there. We'll
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: we'll we'll root for Robbie Avla to get to get
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: one tournament win there. It'll be it'll be fun to
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: see employed in the tournament at least. But Saint Louis,
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, they were so good on offense early in
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: the season, man, and they've had this lull late in
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: the season. Maybe this tournament here will be a reset.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: They got in, they get to get excited, they get
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: to play an SEC team, Georgia. I mean, I don't know,
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: are they that impressive really, I don't know. I mean again,
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: their defense is definitely not that impressive. They didn't look
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: good in the SEC tournament that they lost some ole
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: miss or whatever, which that would make me kind of
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: want to lean towards Georgia. Though George is actually positive
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: leverage though here by ten point six percent. Does that
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: make sense? Pool Genius has them at sixty five point
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: five percent. I don't know if I like it, though,
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: Like their percentages are like way different than what the
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: odds makers are. And I'm you know, I'm trying to
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: read the market because again that's another tool we have,
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: the market to read in these early matchups here. So yeah,
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: you know, I'm still gonna roll with Saint Louis there,
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: and we will take Alabama over Hostra. I think they're
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: too big of a favorite, even though I kind of
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: like Hostra to cover. Yeah, it's a twelve point favorite,
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: but Hostra to cover, you know, might be a consideration
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: in that game. Obviously, we'll take Virginia over a right state.
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: I highly doubt Virginia loses that game, you see, although
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: if they do, we have Tennessee beating them, so that's
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: fine too. I yeah, eighteen and a half paint favorite.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: The money is coming on a right state to cover there.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: But whatever. Then Kentucky's Santa Clara. Interesting game. Santa Clara
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: seems like a very trendy underdog though man sixty four
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, only fifty eight percent of the cast.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: They're a public dog. It looks like they're not used
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: to this. I see a lot of people picking them.
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna take Kentucky there. I think I'm
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: just gonna take the favorite there. They have more experience, man,
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: I mean, I know they've been a roller coaster this year,
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: but they're more battle tested. Santa Clara, good story. I
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: like them. They're actually a pretty good team. But yeah,
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: I just I don't know. I just don't like it.
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: I don't like when I'm seeing in the marketing the
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: Kentucky is a negative leverage play. But they are favorite
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: to win the game, and you know, an anti public
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: favor too, so we will go with them there, all right.
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: And then we have a Clemson in Iowa. Really weird game,
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: probably gonna be a low, low scoring game. Man, the
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: total is down to one twenty nine. Everybody coming in
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: on the under in this game. Clemson is still without
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: I don't remember the guy's name. They were without one
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: of their big men who missed uh. I think most
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: of the a SEC tournament as well, So that's something
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: to keep in mind. I know Clemson, you know, they
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: didn't look good in the tournament last year, so maybe
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: they want to redeem themselves from that. Iowa though, they
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: got tournament experience, because I remember they have Ben McCollum
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: there now and he's still got starts and that was
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: like the Drake thing last year. Oh yeah, opportunity for drop.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: Let's do it here, Jim Bow, what's up man, Thanks
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: for hanging out. I'm gonna bring the drop in here
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: for the Drake real quick. I don't even I like Drake.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: You don't like the drake? Hey the Drake I loved? Wow?
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: Could you not like the drag? Who's the dra Drake
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: is good? Yeah? So Drake. You remember they pulled off
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: that upset against Miszoo last year, and so there's some
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: experience there with Start's very good player there, Ben McCollum
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: the coach. You know, they know what they're doing in
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: the tournament. Here, some continuity there. The money looks like
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: it is coming in on Iowa as well, up to
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: fifty percent. So yeah, I'll take Iowa there. Let me see,
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: I was a little bit negative leverage occoring a pool genius,
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: but I'm not gonna use them for everything. I'm gonna
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: market read. And then we will take Nebraska to get
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: their first tournament winning program history, beating Troy there as
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: a they're a big favorite, like I said, although I'd
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: lean to Troy plus the points though, which looks like
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: it's kind of where the money's coming right now. But
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: Nebraska thirteen halfway favorite there. North Carolina VCU is a
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: bizarre one. VCU seems like a pretty trendy pick. Everybody
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: talking about North Carolina. You know they look bad in
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: the a SEC tournament. Wilson is out, so you know
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: they're best players out. But VCU is a very, very
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: public underdog. It looks like seventy percent of tickets only
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: sixty four percent of the cash on them. I don't
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: think I want VCU here man, to be honest, I
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: was thinking I would like. I was thinking, oh, North
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: Carolina is a blue blot, everybody's gonna pick them, But
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: it looks like that's not what's happening. Let me see here.
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: Well here, it looks like six I mean, how do
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: we read this? Sixty eight percent of the pickers on
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: ESPN are picking them though, But you know, then for me,
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: I like to market read and try to pick who's
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: actually gonna win the game. Hold on, I'm gonna find
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: vcu VC was very positive leverage according to Well plus
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: nine percent according to uh Pool Genie. Yes, he's got
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: on North Carolina winning fifty seven point five percent of
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: the time. So they are being overpicked. But you know,
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: I don't like these tress Dude. I'm gonna market read
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: that one. I'm gonna take North Carolina and then either way,
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: I think Illinois is gonna win against whoever they face.
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: There but yeah, and then Saint Mary's Texas A and M.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: Texas A and M seems like they're a pretty trendy here.
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: Saint Mary's looks like they're getting the money and they
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: are the favorite. And this is a weird matchup. This
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: is like the most insane matchup. I'm gonna talk about
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: this tomorrow morning too. But Texas A and M. They
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: play bucky ball. They play really fast. He's their new
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: coach there, so also they have an inexperienced coach. The
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: team went from a slope paced team last year to
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: now being a fast paced team, which I don't love either.
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: Saint Mary's tough opponent for a team like that. Man,
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: they're gonna slow the game way down. They actually hit
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: threes at a really good rate this year. Saint Mary's,
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: they played good defense. Texas A and M's defense actually
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: isn't that bad either. But money coming in on Saint
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: Mary's fifty eight percent of tickets, sixty nine percent of
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: the cash on them. I'm gonna take Saint Mary's. They're
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: the favorite there and that's the completion of the bracket.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: Finally there, how many what's the percentage of people picking them?
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: Only fifty four percent, so they are actually being underpicked.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: Saint Mary's is. Yeah, they're positive leverage according to Pool
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: Genius as well. So that's what we're doing again. You know,
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: I might have a few tweaks here, but I think
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: this is pretty much the bracket. So yeah, that's gonna
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: here's why bracket. Yeah, that's We're gonna submit it for now.
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: There it is. So we have Michigan over Duke in
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: the final there, you know, going against the grain a
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: little bit there with the Michigan pick and with Illinois
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: making the final four. There, we'll see what happens. I mean,
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: I do think Florida if they wind up in that
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: match where he gets Vandy, I think they will win that.
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: But uh, they'll get the revenge there. But we'll see, man,
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: you know, I mean, if you want all four one
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: seeds in the final four, I don't mind that either.
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: But this is, uh, this is what I'm gonna roll
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: with for now, and then I'm gonna try to figure
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: out what I want to do. I don't like some
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: of these four or five. I hate though the four
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: five like switches there where I try to figure out, well,
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: oh the public is picking this to this extent, you know,
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: I don't know. That's gonna do it, man, you know.
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: And in my women's racket, like I said, I might
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: make it a little bit less crazy there as well,
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: based on seeing the betting odds there. But that's gonna
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: do it. I appreciate it, everybody. Thanks for hanging out. Uh,
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: learn it tone on Twitter, learn it tone on Instagram.
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: You check me out at all those places. Link tree
• 1:09:27
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• 1:09:29
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• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: on Audio, Apple, Spotify, Toadstool Sports, Boost it Up Baby.
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: Covered in yuke My yuke channel on YouTube. I'm I'm
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: covering uh the song that afro Man got sued over.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: I put it out on Twitter already. I'm gonna put
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: it up on YouTube soon. It's got to get out
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: on the Patreon too, though. That's covered in yuke on YouTube,
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: Patreon dot com, slash learned it's own and I got
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: some bonus stuff there. Gotta get the u uke feed
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: up to date there. And then loser Cast, the comedy
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: podcast that I'm on, which we did last night. That's
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: every Tuesday night. That's gonna do it for now, I'll
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: be back tomorrow and we're gonna talk about the actual
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: plays that we want. I don't know how I think
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: I did real bad tonight. Man. I'm fucking pissed about
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: the fucking Houston Rockets. But that's that's gonna do it
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: for now. We'll be back tomorrow, hopefully get some wins.
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: We need to get back on the winning side, man.
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: But peace for now, guys, Happy March Madness,