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ITB: What Can Prop Bets Tell Us About Eagles Expectations In 2026? · Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Inside the Birds is back. What's up, Everybody? It is
0:14
Speaker 1: Jeff Mosher and Adam Kaplan. People call this the dead
0:17
Speaker 1: period of the NFL. It is, but Adam and I
0:19
Speaker 1: we have fun during the dead period and we get
0:22
Speaker 1: our analysis on. It doesn't matter if football is still
0:25
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks away when training game begins and
0:28
Speaker 1: we're gonna do a show, a two part show that
0:30
Speaker 1: we have done a couple of times now over the
0:32
Speaker 1: last few years, and Adam it's our annual we look
0:36
Speaker 1: at the prop bets for the Philadelphia Eagles. But we
0:38
Speaker 1: don't just do this for like gambling degenerates and fantasy
0:41
Speaker 1: football fans. We try to interpret what they mean about
0:45
Speaker 1: how the odds makers see Vegas. Like if people listen
0:49
Speaker 1: to our podcasts, they know, I'm sorry, how the odds
0:51
Speaker 1: makers see the Eagles. People listen to the pod, they've
0:54
Speaker 1: known through our podcast what our concerns are, what we're
0:57
Speaker 1: optimistic about. We've broken down the Eagles. But we're two
1:00
Speaker 1: people and I always find it fascinating what the outside,
1:04
Speaker 1: especially the gambling world, there's an objectivity to that. You know,
1:08
Speaker 1: they're looking to make money, but they're also not you know,
1:10
Speaker 1: they're trying to be down the middle and really give
1:13
Speaker 1: you their own feel for what they think. And so
1:15
Speaker 1: I always look like to see their numbers. And one
1:18
Speaker 1: of the cool things I did was find our show
1:22
Speaker 1: from last I found what the props were for the
1:24
Speaker 1: Eagles their success last year, right, and we're going to
1:29
Speaker 1: compare that to how Vegas thinks about I say Vegas.
1:33
Speaker 1: It's all online now, but either way, how the odds
1:35
Speaker 1: makers think about the Eagles this year, because some might
1:39
Speaker 1: think the Eagles are a better team this year, or
1:41
Speaker 1: some might think they're better last year. And we'll compare
1:43
Speaker 1: and contrast what the odds were.
1:46
Speaker 2: Yeah, something to do, no question, to see what they're thinking.
1:48
Speaker 2: And some of these numbers, by the way, have changed
1:50
Speaker 2: over the last couple of weeks, which I'll note as
1:52
Speaker 2: we go through this. But what's interesting. You know you've
1:56
Speaker 2: said it's a dead period, but actually some camps open
1:59
Speaker 2: next week. It's here. The way it works is you're
2:03
Speaker 2: allowed to report a week early if you have a
2:06
Speaker 2: new coaching staff, and that's going to happen. You know,
2:10
Speaker 2: some of these teams are going to report next week.
2:12
Speaker 2: So here we are. It's right here. Eagles Report of
2:15
Speaker 2: the twenty eighth, so less than two weeks. First practices,
2:19
Speaker 2: the money in the morning of the twenty ninth, So
2:22
Speaker 2: here we go, it's right here.
2:24
Speaker 1: All right. Great, So we just did a two part
2:27
Speaker 1: podcast series giving the keys what we felt were the
2:30
Speaker 1: keys to the Eagles getting back to the Super Bowl
2:33
Speaker 1: and winning the Super Bowl being a Super Bowl team
2:35
Speaker 1: again on offense and defense. So why don't we start
2:38
Speaker 1: by seeing what the odds makers think are the Eagles
2:42
Speaker 1: chances of winning the Super Bowl and who's in the
2:45
Speaker 1: neighborhood and who's higher. So go ahead and give us
2:48
Speaker 1: the props on the Eagles chance to win the super Bowl.
2:51
Speaker 2: All right, So these are the team props, and the
2:53
Speaker 2: Thursday show will do the player props. So just the
2:55
Speaker 2: team props. So to win the Super Bowl, they're plus
2:59
Speaker 2: eighteen hundred, So every one hundred you would bet, you
3:02
Speaker 2: get eighteen hundred back. Well, obviously it's you're getting you're
3:05
Speaker 2: getting good odds now because we're only in mid July.
3:09
Speaker 2: But they actually have the same odds as the Broncos,
3:12
Speaker 2: the Packers. One of these things I don't agree with
3:15
Speaker 2: the Lions and the Patriots, I understand because the Patriots
3:17
Speaker 2: were in the Super Bowl. The oddsmakers think they're going
3:21
Speaker 2: to be good. But Detroit, I don't say it. You know,
3:24
Speaker 2: the Terry on Arnold situation. They had a cutom who's
3:26
Speaker 2: going to be one of their starting corners. We're not
3:27
Speaker 2: good at corner. Other than DJ Reid, Ryan Branch, they're
3:31
Speaker 2: outstanding safety. It's coming off of a torn achilles. They've
3:34
Speaker 2: got the problems at corner last a pretty significant problems.
3:38
Speaker 2: You could question. Their past rush has never been great.
3:40
Speaker 2: It's been good at US, It's never been elite or excellent,
3:43
Speaker 2: so that's concerned. You know, they've got they've got problems
3:45
Speaker 2: with their offensive line. They had a couple departures, so
3:48
Speaker 2: there's some concerns with the Lions.
3:49
Speaker 1: I would agree with everything you said, and I'm glad
3:52
Speaker 1: you're introducing this because you and I talked about this,
3:55
Speaker 1: you know, off the camera. But pretty soon, probably next week,
3:59
Speaker 1: we're gonna do another show where we did last year.
4:03
Speaker 1: We're gonna go through the team, the top ten teams
4:05
Speaker 1: we believe going into the twenty twenty six season who
4:08
Speaker 1: they are, and then our bottom five teams. And Detroit
4:12
Speaker 1: is gonna be an interesting source of discussion for us
4:15
Speaker 1: because I'm kind of higher on Detroit, I think than most,
4:19
Speaker 1: but not because I disagree with your concerns. But you
4:24
Speaker 1: have to also take into account some other things, like
4:26
Speaker 1: the third place schedule they're going to play compared to
4:30
Speaker 1: the Packers and compared to the Bears, who I also
4:34
Speaker 1: think are a team that's headed for regression. So it'll
4:37
Speaker 1: be very interesting. But you do, you do make a
4:39
Speaker 1: good point. I don't right now as we're sitting here.
4:42
Speaker 1: I think the Lions from a they have certainly have
4:45
Speaker 1: a lot of top end talent. But I guess what
4:47
Speaker 1: I would ask you is if if the Broncos and
4:49
Speaker 1: the Patriots, the Packers are really up there with the Eagles, huh,
4:53
Speaker 1: and the Lions are all in the same props plus
4:58
Speaker 1: eighteen to win the Super Bowl? Well who is higher?
5:01
Speaker 1: Who has or short lower number? But like, who are
5:05
Speaker 1: the favorites to win the Super Bowl?
5:07
Speaker 2: From? The Rams are the favorite? They figure number one?
5:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, Seattle number two.
5:14
Speaker 2: I don't have it in front of it. I know
5:15
Speaker 2: the Rams are number one. You knew that was gonna
5:17
Speaker 2: you knew that was going to happen. By the way,
5:20
Speaker 2: to win the NFC, the Eagles are plus one thousand
5:23
Speaker 2: same as the Packers. Now, I think it's fair with
5:28
Speaker 2: all of the changes that Egos have on offense, new coordinator,
5:30
Speaker 2: first time coordinator, by the way, offensive line regression in
5:33
Speaker 2: terms of the run game, yeah, I mean, they shouldn't
5:37
Speaker 2: be the same as the Rams. So we'll see what
5:39
Speaker 2: happens in Week four in Philly, a rematch of last
5:42
Speaker 2: year's Week four game. The craziness of that game, right,
5:45
Speaker 2: But the Packers have theirs now. Couldrew Love finally put
5:49
Speaker 2: it together. He's a good quarterback, no doubt about it,
5:51
Speaker 2: but he hasn't had that kind of run that hurts
5:54
Speaker 2: his head. So we'll see what happens, right, I.
5:56
Speaker 1: Believe if you're looking at the same thing, was the
5:59
Speaker 1: Rams were like play us five point fifty, which was
6:02
Speaker 1: up like a pretty big goal from the other teams,
6:05
Speaker 1: Like Wowhawks. Yeah. So all right, So two things on
6:10
Speaker 1: this one. I'm a little surprised that Denver is in
6:14
Speaker 1: the same neighborhood as the Eagles because I thought Denver
6:19
Speaker 1: adding Jalen Waddle. I know they lost John Franklin Myers,
6:22
Speaker 1: but in general they have the best stable of pass
6:24
Speaker 1: rushers in the NFL, like they did last year, and
6:26
Speaker 1: the year before. I think Denver would have been in
6:29
Speaker 1: the super Bowl if Bonnix was healthy, and I think
6:32
Speaker 1: that they're a pretty darn good team. I would have
6:34
Speaker 1: them probably, and we'll get into this next week, probably
6:37
Speaker 1: as a top three team going into the NFL. I
6:39
Speaker 1: would have them a little bit higher company than the Packers.
6:43
Speaker 1: To your point, the Lions, even the Patriots. Patriots got
6:47
Speaker 1: better too with their receivers. I think I would have
6:49
Speaker 1: Denver in New England a little bit higher than Green
6:51
Speaker 1: Bay and Detroit and the Eagle South like in between.
6:55
Speaker 2: Denver's bringing back almost their entire team other than John
6:58
Speaker 2: Franklin Myers, and then as you mentioned, the added waddle
7:00
Speaker 2: that they retained JK. Dobbins. Their five stars on the
7:04
Speaker 2: offensive line are back. Yep. The receivers are back, tight
7:08
Speaker 2: ends are back. Yeah. Yeah. They gave Evan Ingram a
7:13
Speaker 2: good for Mike McCartney did a great job in his contract,
7:15
Speaker 2: but that he was at this point in his career.
7:18
Speaker 2: Of surprise they gave him the kind of money they did,
7:19
Speaker 2: but they did. Most of their defenders are back. You
7:23
Speaker 2: mentioned the edge rusher Alex Singleton's back, but a great
7:26
Speaker 2: story of development for them, so Yeah. What's interesting though,
7:30
Speaker 2: is most books, though, have the Chiefs a little bit higher.
7:35
Speaker 2: They have them to win the division, the AFC West.
7:37
Speaker 2: I don't see if Mahome's coming off that injury, that
7:39
Speaker 2: they're a team that in transition. I think it's absurd,
7:41
Speaker 2: absolutely absurd.
7:42
Speaker 1: That's really interesting. Yeah, I find that fascinating. Good good
7:45
Speaker 1: nugget there. All right, So I want I'm gonna quiz
7:49
Speaker 1: you here because I don't think you looked I did. Okay,
7:52
Speaker 1: what do you think the props were for the What
7:54
Speaker 1: do you think the number was at for the Eagles
7:56
Speaker 1: last year to win the Super Bowl? It's plus eighteen
7:59
Speaker 1: hundred this year? As you just said, what was it
8:01
Speaker 1: last year?
8:02
Speaker 2: Plus eleven hundred?
8:05
Speaker 1: You are so far off?
8:08
Speaker 2: Was it even worse?
8:10
Speaker 1: No, it was, well, it was more. It was less
8:13
Speaker 1: to be made, meaning like the number the short number
8:16
Speaker 1: was a lot lower, shorter, plus seven hundred right around there,
8:21
Speaker 1: plus six fifty.
8:23
Speaker 2: Wow, they had heavy.
8:24
Speaker 1: They had the shortest odds of all the teams to
8:27
Speaker 1: win the Super.
8:28
Speaker 2: Plus I would have been them repeating wow, and that's
8:31
Speaker 2: surely how hard it is to win the next year? Wow? Interesting?
8:34
Speaker 1: Right? Right? So the just shows you I mean a
8:38
Speaker 1: lot of I mean, I guess that tells us that
8:41
Speaker 1: that the odds makers thought that he was were I
8:43
Speaker 1: don't want to say a good chance to repeat, but
8:44
Speaker 1: they were the best team in their mind to win
8:47
Speaker 1: the super Bowl at this point last year at plus six.
8:50
Speaker 2: Fifty yep, yep, to be the the NFC number one
8:54
Speaker 2: seed plus a fifty, same as the Niners. But this
8:58
Speaker 2: is the one again, I don't under stand the Lions
9:02
Speaker 2: have a shorter number, the plus seven to fifty so
9:07
Speaker 2: the odds makers and I don't know if it's been
9:10
Speaker 2: bet down or bet up since these came out after
9:13
Speaker 2: the draft, but the Lions are plus seven fifties, so
9:17
Speaker 2: they have shorter odds like they're a stronger favorite to
9:19
Speaker 2: win the super Bowl, to to get to the super Bowl.
9:21
Speaker 2: I don't see that they've flaws, way more flaws than
9:23
Speaker 2: the other two teams.
9:24
Speaker 1: Well, and where I wonder where Seattle is, maybe I
9:27
Speaker 1: can quickly found that one that that you said, that's
9:30
Speaker 1: to win the NFC East.
9:31
Speaker 2: Right, No, to win the win the NFC.
9:34
Speaker 1: Okay, the conference winner NFC looks like number one.
9:38
Speaker 2: This I'm sorry to be the number one seed, to
9:40
Speaker 2: be the number one seed.
9:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, you win your conference, right, you're the number Oh oh.
9:44
Speaker 2: No, no, no, the number one seeds.
9:46
Speaker 1: Not winning the conference. Yeah, that's different. All right. So
9:49
Speaker 1: last year to be the number one seed, the Eagles
9:52
Speaker 1: were plus three twenty five. This year plus eight fifty.
9:56
Speaker 2: Yep.
9:57
Speaker 1: So we're already we're already seeing that the odds makers
10:00
Speaker 1: aren't totally bought into the Eagles this year the way
10:02
Speaker 1: they were year. But they are. But no, but here's
10:06
Speaker 1: the thing. They're bought into the Chiefs even though the
10:10
Speaker 1: Chiefs are coming off really bad. That's why I don't know.
10:16
Speaker 2: Homes Homes has been on a small decline. Okay, then
10:20
Speaker 2: he has an a c l entry. There's optimism that
10:23
Speaker 2: he'll be ready for Week one, but he's gonna make
10:25
Speaker 2: He may not even practice until September. Who the hell knows.
10:28
Speaker 2: So he's making great progress. Mm hmm. They've got flaws
10:32
Speaker 2: on the they've got flaws in the rush. Denver's got
10:34
Speaker 2: a better roster, like Denver's got a better roster. So yeah,
10:38
Speaker 2: the Eagles to win the NFC to get to the
10:40
Speaker 2: super Bowl is plus one thousand. But to be the
10:42
Speaker 2: number one seed out of the seven teams that make
10:45
Speaker 2: it plus eight fifty saments of nine ers that Lions
10:48
Speaker 2: are of Lions are a stronger bet to be the
10:51
Speaker 2: number one seed. I think it's absolutely absurd.
10:53
Speaker 1: All right, So again and some of that because again,
10:56
Speaker 1: just being the number one seed means you just have
10:58
Speaker 1: the best record, Yes, well a lot of Again, the
11:02
Speaker 1: schedule you're gonna play the Niners. Would they finish third
11:07
Speaker 1: in the NFC West behind Seattle and and the or
11:09
Speaker 1: they finished second. I think that matters because A, they
11:14
Speaker 1: showed they were good to they won twelve games last year, right,
11:17
Speaker 1: and B if they're playing a they're getting like, look
11:20
Speaker 1: at ever where they're getting back. They're getting back Fred Warmer,
11:23
Speaker 1: the best linebacker in the game. They're getting uh uh yeah, yeah, yeah,
11:30
Speaker 1: I mean. And then Bosa Odiggy's what they traded for.
11:33
Speaker 1: They bring in Mike Evans. And yet they're playing a
11:36
Speaker 1: schedule because I believe they finished third in their in
11:42
Speaker 1: their their division last year. I'm gonna check that out
11:45
Speaker 1: right now just to make sure accurate with that they
11:47
Speaker 1: finished third, Right, we're gonna play a third just like
11:50
Speaker 1: the Lions, Adam, you play a third, play schedule, but
11:52
Speaker 1: your talented the odds makers say.
11:55
Speaker 2: The number one Cartier for stress of schedule is actually
11:57
Speaker 2: the way the teams look. You know, you're not playing
11:59
Speaker 2: last exact teams like nobody does, so I do my
12:03
Speaker 2: own stret to schedule makers. They've clearly taken it. No,
12:08
Speaker 2: I understand why you have to use it, But this
12:09
Speaker 2: biggest indicator is what the roster looks like. No team
12:13
Speaker 2: stays exactly the same front office, players or coaches. They
12:15
Speaker 2: it all changes. Denver is the one right if you
12:19
Speaker 2: really if you study rushers like I do. It's one
12:22
Speaker 2: of the few teams to bring back most of their
12:23
Speaker 2: starters like Dallas brought their entire offense back, but a
12:26
Speaker 2: lot of changes on defense because they're changing schemes and
12:28
Speaker 2: so forth. But I'm just kind of surprised now to
12:32
Speaker 2: win the NFC East. As we move on here, the
12:34
Speaker 2: Eagles are plus one twenty five, shortest odds of the
12:39
Speaker 2: teams in division. Eagles are plus one twenty five, Dallas
12:42
Speaker 2: is plus two ten. They're picked us to finish second.
12:45
Speaker 2: So yeah, the Eagles are the favorite. I would agree
12:48
Speaker 2: with that. Now. So many people think Dallas is going
12:51
Speaker 2: to win the division. Well, I get it. They're bringing
12:54
Speaker 2: back their entire offense. Their offense should be great, but
12:58
Speaker 2: brand new defense they've never run before, or their questions
13:01
Speaker 2: where the personnel fits number one, number two, a first
13:04
Speaker 2: time play caller, that's it's a lot. That's a lot.
13:06
Speaker 2: Christian Parker might be smart, but he's never run a
13:08
Speaker 2: defense before. You know, the big pressure gun. I agree,
13:12
Speaker 2: I pressure Cooker.
13:15
Speaker 1: I'd be very, very reluctant to pick Dallas to win
13:18
Speaker 1: the division because of the even though their defense should
13:21
Speaker 1: be better when Christian Parker, it might take a little bit.
13:23
Speaker 1: They still don't. I don't know, they still have all
13:26
Speaker 1: the personnel that Christian Parker needs to make that defense
13:29
Speaker 1: go the way he wants it to go. And if
13:32
Speaker 1: we were talking from a purely financial standpoint, I think
13:37
Speaker 1: the commanders of the Giants, who are probably pretty close,
13:40
Speaker 1: they they're way behind both the Eagles, and they're probably
13:43
Speaker 1: a better financial And say, if you're gonna lay twenty
13:46
Speaker 1: five bucks down, you're gonna get a bigger number, probably
13:49
Speaker 1: like plus three point fifty or plus four fight fifty
13:52
Speaker 1: five fifty with either of those teams, and you never know,
13:56
Speaker 1: like the Eagles and Cowboys could kind of beat up
13:58
Speaker 1: on each other and then you get a surprise. Jane
14:00
Speaker 1: Daniels could play well and lift the Commanders back. Giants
14:04
Speaker 1: can play well second year out of the job. How
14:06
Speaker 1: many times have we seen the second year quarterback, whether
14:09
Speaker 1: it's Caleb Williams, whether it's Carson Wentz, Drake may Bow
14:12
Speaker 1: knicks right lift their team into the playoffs in the
14:16
Speaker 1: division time? It happens pretty pretty often, pretty often.
14:19
Speaker 2: So to be just money, you do that well. The
14:23
Speaker 2: problem with the Cowboys if you look at their their schedule, Okay,
14:27
Speaker 2: if you just based on who they're playing, based on
14:30
Speaker 2: way the teams look this season, Yes, they get off
14:35
Speaker 2: to that they play two teams that were terrible last season,
14:40
Speaker 2: the Giants of the Camnners. But then it's the Ravens,
14:43
Speaker 2: the Texans, the Bucks, the Packers, the Eagles. That that
14:49
Speaker 2: you're gonna learn a lot about the Cowboys over the
14:51
Speaker 2: first seven weeks of the season. I imagine my problem
14:56
Speaker 2: for them.
14:57
Speaker 1: When the schedule came out, we looked and we said,
15:00
Speaker 1: you know what, it looks like. The Cowboys second place
15:02
Speaker 1: schedule is actually tougher just based on the history of
15:06
Speaker 1: the teams. Right then the Eagles first place schedule, because
15:10
Speaker 1: the Cowboys had to play the Ravens, who are I
15:12
Speaker 1: think we're out of it last right? For not the Ravens.
15:14
Speaker 1: They had to play, Yeah, the Ravens who finished second
15:17
Speaker 1: in the AFC South last year, and they had to
15:19
Speaker 1: play out of the Texans who finished behind I believe
15:21
Speaker 1: the Jags, right, So it it just looked like that
15:25
Speaker 1: was not a favorable thing for Dallas to finish in
15:27
Speaker 1: second place based on who they had to play this year.
15:30
Speaker 1: But again, it all depends on how these teams are
15:33
Speaker 1: this year. That's what matters.
15:34
Speaker 2: Yep.
15:37
Speaker 1: By the way, last year, can you repeat the number again?
15:40
Speaker 2: To win the NFC, to win the to actually to
15:43
Speaker 2: get to the Super Bowl, to win the NFC is
15:44
Speaker 2: plus one thousand?
15:46
Speaker 1: Do you what do you think it was last year
15:47
Speaker 1: for the Eagles? You're gonna You're gonna fall out of
15:49
Speaker 1: your chair plus lower?
15:54
Speaker 2: Wow, plus three fifty lower? Oh my god boy, that
15:59
Speaker 2: was wow.
16:00
Speaker 1: Plus three twenty five.
16:02
Speaker 2: We all missed it. We all missed it, man, Uh,
16:04
Speaker 2: not that one. I just thought they would have been
16:06
Speaker 2: way better. And you know we missed on it, as
16:10
Speaker 2: everyone did. On the entry problems on their offensive line.
16:13
Speaker 2: Holy smokes. Yeah, Look, it's no guarantee they're gonna They're
16:16
Speaker 2: gonna be better, but how much better remains to be seen.
16:18
Speaker 2: But it's no guarantee that they're not on the downward
16:20
Speaker 2: slide the offensive line, you know, true, So I'll see,
16:24
Speaker 2: all right.
16:24
Speaker 1: What is it just to make the playoffs? Which I
16:27
Speaker 1: like this one.
16:28
Speaker 2: We don't talk about this much in the NFC. He
16:30
Speaker 2: was are minus one seventy five to make it so
16:33
Speaker 2: that they could make it as a wild card. They're
16:34
Speaker 2: minus one seventy five. So for every hundred you bet, well,
16:39
Speaker 2: you have to bet to get a hundred, to win
16:40
Speaker 2: one hundred dollars, you have to bet one seventy five
16:43
Speaker 2: and you get your your hundred dollars back. But uh,
16:45
Speaker 2: I mean you want to win one hundred and you
16:47
Speaker 2: get your one seventy five back. But if you don't
16:50
Speaker 2: think they're gonna make it, it's plus one forty five.
16:55
Speaker 2: So for every hundred you bet, you get your bet
16:57
Speaker 2: back plus one forty five. Pretty good.
17:00
Speaker 1: There's more money to be made if you if you
17:01
Speaker 1: want to doubt the Eagles this year, there's better money
17:03
Speaker 1: to be made that way, if you truly believe the
17:06
Speaker 1: Eagles are Yeah, I mean.
17:07
Speaker 2: If you think for some reason, they're in a regression
17:10
Speaker 2: and not make the playoffs for the first time in
17:11
Speaker 2: Siriani's career. Here it's to be the first time in
17:14
Speaker 2: six years now to finish this off. The wins are fascinating.
17:18
Speaker 2: I'm interesting to see what one you like this one.
17:23
Speaker 2: I mean, I hate to say a lot, but to
17:25
Speaker 2: be to go over eight and a half wins, which
17:28
Speaker 2: means they'd have a winning record. The over eight and
17:32
Speaker 2: a half nine wins or more is minus two thirty five.
17:35
Speaker 2: That's an obvious one. The under, if you think they're
17:37
Speaker 2: gonna be a bad team, be under five hundred, so
17:42
Speaker 2: be eight eight wins or less. They're plus one ninety five.
17:45
Speaker 2: I don't see any way that you're winning that bet.
17:49
Speaker 2: And I love how they do this, always do the
17:51
Speaker 2: half wins nine and a half wins is next. Ye,
17:54
Speaker 2: Still there are strong bet to be over minus one
17:56
Speaker 2: forty five is the over. The under is plus one twenty.
18:00
Speaker 2: I don't see how in the hell they're they're less
18:02
Speaker 2: than ten wins. I don't see it at all anyway.
18:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, and if they are plus one twenty isn't enough
18:07
Speaker 1: for me?
18:08
Speaker 2: Right, exactly, right, exactly, that's the point. You're not it
18:11
Speaker 2: should be like to me, one seventy Yeah, it's a
18:14
Speaker 2: pretty big gap from eight and half nine and a
18:15
Speaker 2: half wins in terms of the under. Now here's where
18:18
Speaker 2: it gets fascinating. This is where it gets fascinating. Ten
18:22
Speaker 2: and a half wins. So if you take the over,
18:24
Speaker 2: its just eleven wins or more, it's plus one twenty okay,
18:28
Speaker 2: which I think is eleven and six. They could do that.
18:31
Speaker 2: That's the sweet spot to me is eleven and twelve wins.
18:34
Speaker 2: The unders minus one forty five. I don't see that.
18:37
Speaker 2: How are they a strong bet to go under? I'm
18:40
Speaker 2: very surprised by that.
18:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, I thought it would be a big, a bigger negative. Yeah,
18:45
Speaker 1: like yeah, you know, one seventy five or something. Yeah,
18:47
Speaker 1: I don't know. That's well, that's that ten and a
18:49
Speaker 1: half number is a tricky number, it really is, because
18:55
Speaker 1: there's such a bit there's there's a lot of teams
18:57
Speaker 1: that finish with like ten wins, and then you get
18:59
Speaker 1: sell eleven or twelve and it starts to separate.
19:03
Speaker 2: Eleven and if the last year's debacle.
19:07
Speaker 1: Oh man, I don't know. I just I would stay
19:10
Speaker 1: away from it. I I if you listen, if you're
19:12
Speaker 1: asking me I would put the money on the the
19:14
Speaker 1: over ten and a half at plus one twenty, you're
19:17
Speaker 1: getting money. You're getting more money than you put down.
19:19
Speaker 1: Just for the Eagles winning eleven games, that to me,
19:22
Speaker 1: that's like, Okay, that's good. I'm I'm I'm much more
19:25
Speaker 1: comfortable with that.
19:26
Speaker 2: By the way, they were eleven and six last season
19:29
Speaker 2: to my point, so yeah, I like them. For eleven
19:31
Speaker 2: wins is disappointing, I know, but but that's that's not
19:38
Speaker 2: the point of the wins. It's it's well, if you're
19:42
Speaker 2: if you're just saying it's eleven wins, eleven and six
19:44
Speaker 2: would be disappointing. But my point is for for just
19:46
Speaker 2: the odds. Now here's where on your point that would
19:49
Speaker 2: be disappointing. See again, they don't do they don't do
19:54
Speaker 2: the full wins. They only do a half. Now this
19:56
Speaker 2: is where it's fascinating. Do you think they could be
19:58
Speaker 2: a twelve win team or more? If you do, then
20:02
Speaker 2: you're doing well. Because the Eagles are over over eleven
20:06
Speaker 2: and a half wins means twelve means twelve wins or more.
20:08
Speaker 2: They're plus two hundred mm the owners minus two fifty.
20:13
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20:19
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21:37
Speaker 2: If you look at their schedule, okay, based on what
21:40
Speaker 2: all these teams have done in their off season. If
21:42
Speaker 2: you look at their schedule, okay, in Washington, Tennessee to
21:47
Speaker 2: very winnable games. We've talked about the Chicago and Rams
21:49
Speaker 2: games and being very tough. We'll see if Jacksonville thirteen
21:52
Speaker 2: to four, and then it sort of eases up. Carolina
21:56
Speaker 2: they made it, but they they were under five hundred
21:59
Speaker 2: Cowboys who probably will be better Commandos Giants. It's not
22:05
Speaker 2: a bad schedule. Then they play the Steelers, Cowboys, Cardinals,
22:09
Speaker 2: they're perpetually bad. And then the call to the hell
22:12
Speaker 2: Notes with the quarterback. Then then the Gauntlet. Then it
22:15
Speaker 2: gets Seattle Houston and at the Niners. They're gonna they're
22:21
Speaker 2: gonna be a minimum. They're gonna have at least to me,
22:24
Speaker 2: they're gonna have at least eleven wins. I just don't
22:26
Speaker 2: see any way they're not gonna have fewer wins at
22:28
Speaker 2: last season.
22:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, it canna be health there. This is interesting. I mean,
22:35
Speaker 1: with eleven and a half being minus two fifty if
22:38
Speaker 1: you bet the under, and twelve and a half is
22:41
Speaker 1: minus four to fifty. But there's just no financial incentive
22:45
Speaker 1: there under even if you think the Eagles aren't going
22:50
Speaker 1: to win fewer than thirteen or two or I'm sorry,
22:52
Speaker 1: twelve or eleven games. So it makes me think they
22:57
Speaker 1: don't want you putting money there because they don't want
22:59
Speaker 1: you winning there. And it makes me think they don't
23:01
Speaker 1: think the Eagles really are that much better than eleven wins.
23:05
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well again, that's the sweet spot for me. I
23:08
Speaker 2: love them over eleven and excuse me be ten and
23:10
Speaker 2: a half. Yeah, either eleven or twelve one team yep.
23:14
Speaker 2: What what would worry me? The lack of depth here,
23:19
Speaker 2: Like if Smitty couldn't play for four weeks, Holy smokes.
23:23
Speaker 2: Mm hmm, I mean, who the hell knows about Way's
23:25
Speaker 2: Hollywood Brown? Who the hell I mean that that would
23:28
Speaker 2: be a problem. See, that's the issue with the quality
23:31
Speaker 2: of depth at certain positions. If Dickerson gets hurt, that
23:35
Speaker 2: could be watched. It's probably likely mm hmm that would
23:39
Speaker 2: that would be concerned. They would have some things they
23:41
Speaker 2: can do. But they can move draggons over, they could
23:43
Speaker 2: move they could kennel over, but that's not ideal. So
23:47
Speaker 2: that the quality depth of problem. But again, I just
23:50
Speaker 2: don't see any way they're not going to have at
23:51
Speaker 2: least eleven wins if they're.
23:53
Speaker 1: Hell yeah, yeah. So interestingly, plus two hundred on the
23:56
Speaker 1: over at eleven and a half this year. Last year
23:59
Speaker 1: at eleven and a half was only plus one oh five.
24:02
Speaker 2: Wow, they're given me great.
24:05
Speaker 1: Yeah, they don't have as much confidence in the Eagles
24:08
Speaker 1: this year beyond ten to eleven plus one plus one
24:12
Speaker 1: to five for which number for eleven and a half?
24:15
Speaker 2: Wow, So they basically thought that it was you're not
24:18
Speaker 2: gonna you didn't even have an advantag I'm not going.
24:20
Speaker 1: To give you a whole lot forgetting.
24:22
Speaker 2: All Yeah, almost even money eleven and a half last year,
24:26
Speaker 2: which means they thought they were going to make another run.
24:28
Speaker 2: We I don't remember what I like last year, but
24:31
Speaker 2: this year I can only tell you what I like here.
24:32
Speaker 2: I love the over.
24:33
Speaker 1: Ten and a half.
24:34
Speaker 2: Really do you do?
24:38
Speaker 1: Yeah? I think that's fair, especially at that number of
24:41
Speaker 1: plus one point yeah. Even money there, well a little
24:43
Speaker 1: more than even money. Yeah, all right, very interesting. I
24:47
Speaker 1: think the most fascinating thing about this was some of
24:50
Speaker 1: the teams that we see in the same echelon or
24:54
Speaker 1: neighborhood as them from a prop standpoint, like the Niners
24:57
Speaker 1: as you mentioned, as the number one seed or the
24:59
Speaker 1: Packers to win the NFC compared to last year where
25:03
Speaker 1: it was just lots of love for the Eagles and
25:06
Speaker 1: not as much for some of the other teams. So
25:09
Speaker 1: but that's Hey, it's a year to year league and
25:11
Speaker 1: the Eagles have a lot to prove and I'm sure
25:13
Speaker 1: Vegas took an account to the entirely new scheme on offense.
25:17
Speaker 1: They will have to adjust to and everything because that's
25:20
Speaker 1: what they do. It's what they're looking for.
25:24
Speaker 2: I would say this to end it. They also they
25:26
Speaker 2: have to look the way the team ended the season
25:28
Speaker 2: last year terrible. It's the Niners awful. They look terrible.
25:32
Speaker 2: I mean, they've changed around the offensive staff a lot
25:35
Speaker 2: of it, the majority of it, not all of it,
25:36
Speaker 2: but the majority of it. So we'll see what happens.
25:40
Speaker 2: But next up on the next show are the player props.
25:44
Speaker 2: We found some new ones this week going to be interesting.
25:47
Speaker 2: In fact, some of the odds have actually changed a
25:49
Speaker 2: little bit over the last two weeks.
25:50
Speaker 1: Oh, that's gonna be exciting. I look forward to that.
25:52
Speaker 1: All right, that will be the next one that's gonna
25:54
Speaker 1: do it for this addition of Inside the Birds, and
25:57
Speaker 1: as always, we thank you for flying with us inside
26:02
Speaker 1: the Birds, Hm.