Latest / The Smart Cookies podcast / From SAMURAI to SHINKANSEN - the Rise, Fall and Stagnation of MODERN JAPAN, with Prof. Christopher Harding

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From SAMURAI to SHINKANSEN - the Rise, Fall and Stagnation of MODERN JAPAN, with Prof. Christopher Harding · The Smart Cookies podcast

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Christopher Harding is a cultural historian of
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Japan, India and East -West connections based
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at the University of Edinburgh. He's the author
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of many fantastic books on Japan and its history.
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such as A Short History of Japan, The Light of
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Asia, The Japanese, A History in 20 Lives, and
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A History of Modern Japan, with me right here,
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which is what we will be chatting about today.
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I can't recommend it enough. A delicious read,
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seriously. And last thing, if you're keen on
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learning more about current affairs in Japan,
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I would also urge you to subscribe to his sub
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stack, Japan and the World. I'll include the
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link in the description below the video. Professor
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Harding, welcome to the show. Thank you for having
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me. I have to tell you, your book couldn't possibly
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have a better beginning. And that beginning goes
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something like this. After its warring states
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period, which we see on television so often,
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Japan unceremoniously kicked out all the pesky
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meddling foreigners and remained closed off to
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the world for like an astounding 200 years, an
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era of relative peace and stability known today
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as the Edo period. The really dramatic part is
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what happened next. Because in July 1853, I believe,
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a fleet of huge, intimidating American steam
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-powered ships appeared on the horizon of Tokyo
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Bay. I mean, this must have seemed like alien
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technology, like a scene out of Independence
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Day to the Japanese, or so I imagine. And not
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only that, but these forceful, kind of cranky
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Americans forced their way onto the shore. where
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their leader, the famous Commodore Perry, presented
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the Japanese with two things. A letter from his
1:45
president urging Japan to open up to trade and,
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as you describe in the book, an ominous piece
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of white cloth. Because if the Japanese refused
1:54
the American president's offer, it would have
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meant war and they would need this piece of white
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cloth. to surrender. Sheesh, talk about a grand
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entrance there. What kind of a shock was this
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pretty monumental intrusion for the Japanese?
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I think it's hard to understate the level of
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shock. I think some of the samurai who were rushed
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out to the scene to stand on the cliffs overlooking
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the beach from where you could see this steamship
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technology, a lot of those samurai we think were
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probably carrying firearms that were a couple
2:30
of hundred years old. So back in the US, for
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example, these things would be in museums or
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stuffed away in someone's attic. But this is
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really all the Japanese had. I think one of the
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few downsides of the period of peace that you've
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talked about was that they didn't really need
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to develop their weapons technology. In fact,
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there were rules against developing weapons technologies
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and against building too many castles simply
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because The authorities in Japan feared a return
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to the chaos of the past. So they realized, I
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think, very quickly something had happened in
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the West that had propelled a country like the
3:09
United States far ahead of Japan. It's obvious
3:12
from those steamships belching black smoke. And
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you can see in some Japanese art of the era,
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they look evil. Some of the ships even have these
3:21
evil faces on them, which tells you a lot. One
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thing they didn't know, but I think they could
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guess, was that those steamships alone carried
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enough firepower to flatten Edo, which is now
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modern day Tokyo. So the disparity, the gap between
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the two countries was huge at this point. Only
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foreigners that were tolerated during the shogunate
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were the pragmatic, pretty money -hungry Dutch.
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And even they were confined to a small outpost
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and allowed... I believe, to leave once a year
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or something to dance for the aristocracy who
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are laughing at them because they were gingers
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or something. But what's even more intriguing
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is that the Dutch were actually withholding a
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lot of crucial information, obviously, due to
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selfish reasons. For example, as you write in
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the book, they didn't tell them that the US became
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an independent country or that the French Revolution
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happened. I mean, not exactly like page 42 news
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there. So what did the Japanese really know?
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about the outside world, especially the world
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beyond China? I think one of the things they
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knew, one of the things they remembered, actually,
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was that Westerners in particular can be a security
4:35
risk. They can be interfering. The Sengoku period,
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the Warring States period, that you mentioned
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at the very beginning there, in the latter part
4:45
of that, so we're thinking about the second half
4:47
of the 16th century. Portuguese traders, Portuguese
4:51
missionaries came to Japan and were tolerated
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because the traders were bringing in quite a
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lot of money, taxes, customs duties, etc. But
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then some Japanese people converted to Christianity,
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including some senior warlords became Christians.
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So you have these warlords with odd sounding
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Portuguese Christian names. And there's a really
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big risk there as far as the authorities are
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concerned, because where do these people's loyalties
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ultimately lie? You know, do they lie in Japan?
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Do they lie with the Pope? There's always been
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this idea in Japan that to be a Christian is
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to have a kind of sympathy with Western culture,
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which might be a little bit suspicious. Some
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of the Jesuit missionaries also began to interfere
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a bit in Japan's politics. This is in a period
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where people in Japan are trying to bring the
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country back together. And so to have outsiders
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meddling. is intolerable and when they finally
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as you mentioned close the country in the early
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1600s close it to the west not to asia it's important
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to say The language of that is really revealing.
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They say the Portuguese and their mothers and
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their nurses, we're going to kick them all out.
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And if they try and come back in, Portuguese
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did try to come back and they set fire to one
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of their ships, just underlying the message and
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say, we really do not want you here. So I think
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that was one of the impressions of the West,
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a very strong memory that they might subvert
6:13
Japanese politics, undermine Japanese identity.
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So I think that was quite powerful. They also
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had a sense of, especially in China, that Westerners
6:25
were starting to interfere in Asia. You know,
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China just across the water for the Japanese,
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this big cultural big brother for centuries.
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And the idea that such a powerful and elevated
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nation as China could come to be under the thumb
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of the West, kind of carved up even by European
6:44
powers. This was something else that the Japanese
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understood about the West. That information did
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trickle in, like the Opium Wars, for example.
6:55
It did trickle in because China is so close by.
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The Japanese were aware of that. They were aware
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in a slightly more hazy way of what was happening
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in a country like India, you know, under British
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colonialism. India was of interest to Japan because
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it's the source of Buddhism, which is obviously
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a huge part of Japanese culture. So India also
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is a kind of far -off, mystical, elevated place.
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And if something is happening there that the
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Westerners are doing, that knowledge... trickles
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into japan to a small extent but china they were
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well aware and then you know the americans will
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talk about this later on but then it was possible
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for the americans to say to the japanese look
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what's happening to china you're going to be
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next if you don't you know deal with us if you
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don't operate a good argument yeah i think at
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the time it was quite a powerful one um so there
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is that sense of westerners on the one hand they
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possess this amazing technology that we need
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to get our hands on after they see perry's ships
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and on the other there's a sense that westerners
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really can't be trusted their good intentions
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can't be trusted and we have to be really careful
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how we deal with them by the way i live in japan
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i moved to japan about two years i didn't know
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that right whereabouts in japan are you i'm in
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tokyo oh which neighborhood are you in uh shimokitazawa
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i'm sorry yes a bit of a cliche i lived there
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20 years ago Yeah, it was lovely 20 years ago,
8:16
all these live houses and cafes, etc. But then
8:20
they messed about with the train station very
8:23
controversially. But is it still a good place
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to be? I bet it is. It is, but I kind of wish
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now that I moved to Koenji. It seems like a lot
8:31
of people say that it's like Shimokitazawa 10
8:33
years ago. And Shimokita is really, I mean, it's
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kind of ridiculous that I'm saying this, you
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know, but it's quite touristy now and very gentrified
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and it's just shops. overpriced shops and now
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they've built like a bus stop in front of the
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in front of the train station as if the streets
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aren't narrow enough and as if traffic isn't
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you know everywhere already like i have to say
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urban planning leaves much to be desired sometimes
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here but that's a conversation for another time
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i wanted to say this maybe it's just me but talking
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to to the japanese i often get the impression
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that they believe that paradise was lost somehow
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almost when they were forcefully pried open to
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the world and they still kind of wish that didn't
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happen however the edo period wasn't always like
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a summer picnic especially towards you know its
9:23
end as you write bad harvests famines scandals
9:27
of a corrupt government abounded and that's before
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the americans ever bothered to show up right
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Yeah, you make such a good point there about
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how the Edo era is remembered, partly because
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what happened next, which obviously we'll get
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into, is so complicated and tragic in some ways
9:44
for Japan. And so I sort of get the same impression,
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speaking with people in Japan, looking at TV
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dramas set in the Edo era, these time slip dramas
9:54
where someone goes back to the Edo era. And it's
9:57
full often, isn't it, of... people who are living
10:02
in cities like Edo and Osaka they've got a little
10:05
bit of money it's peaceful they can shop they
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can eat well they can enjoy these entertainments
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you don't often see Edo era dramas that are set
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in villages where people are starving or being
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forced to leave their children out to die because
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they can't feed them you don't often see that
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that broader picture instead as you say it's
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these kind of rose tinted glasses we would say
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in English but I think that I think that is very
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revealing. It's a time remembered now in Japan
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where Japanese identity was not really in question
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and where its relationships with the outside
10:40
world were fairly simple. And that hasn't been
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the case really since Perry arrived. So you can
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sort of understand that feeling, I think. Okay,
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so... The Japanese say yes to Commodore Perry
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because they don't really have a choice, right?
10:55
So they open up to foreign trade, but they also
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decide that unless they want to become ripe for
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the plucking by Western nations at the top of
11:02
their kind of like imperialistic zeal, they need
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to start modernizing, right? And fast. And this
11:08
will eventually become known as the Meiji. restoration
11:11
and it's it's pretty universally seen as a as
11:13
a tremendous success a couple of episodes ago
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i talked to historian yang weng zhang about the
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opium wars she's from the university of manchester
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and she herself presented like a stark contrast
11:24
between the complacency and the pride of the
11:27
ruling manchus who refused to acknowledge the
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kind of changing global balance of power, which
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led to China's century of humiliation and the
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resourceful Japanese who realized what's the
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name of the game and quickly did something about
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it. But what's now seen as this sort of seamless
11:44
transition into modernity was, as you describe
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in the book, a much bumpier ride, wasn't it?
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Absolutely. There was an attempt, I think, at
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the time to distinguish between modernizing on
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the one hand and westernizing. on the other so
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modernizing would mean we need these weapons
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and so if you sort of think back pragmatically
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and i think the japanese were quite pragmatic
12:07
we need these weapons so we need the factories
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to make these weapons we need the scientific
12:13
know -how to build the factories to make the
12:15
weapons we need the money these practical aspects
12:18
of arming themselves as well as the americans
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were thought about quite carefully in japan and
12:25
that was really the central plan i think of the
12:29
major restoration was to turn japan into a country
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that could stand up to one like the united states
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um what i don't think was appreciated at the
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time or i think some people maybe did appreciate
12:42
it was that actually lots of those technological
12:44
innovations are quite difficult to distinguish
12:47
from westernization so if you start building
12:51
universities or you start reimagining how you
12:54
educate your young people if you start thinking
12:58
about how do we weave together a nation where
13:01
previously japan and the edo era most people
13:03
would talk about themselves as coming from this
13:06
village or perhaps uh that you know feudal domain
13:09
they wouldn't really think of themselves as japanese
13:11
so you've got to weave that together so you start
13:14
shifting from kind of pragmatic priorities into
13:17
culture and once you start to do that and once
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you start this process of borrowing an adaptation
13:23
from the west all sorts of things, cultural things
13:27
start to come in, you know, attitudes, liberal
13:29
political ideologies, comedy, theatre, all these
13:33
sorts of things start to come in as well that
13:35
makes life a lot more complicated. So I think
13:37
that inability, and it's not just that the Japanese
13:40
failed, I just don't think it's easy to do, to
13:44
distinguish between modernising and westernising
13:46
I think was a problem. I think also then there
13:49
are winners in the Meiji Restoration, but there
13:51
are also losers. So some of your viewers will
13:54
have seen or heard of a film like The Last Samurai.
13:57
Oh, yes. Watanabe Ken, right? A guilty pleasure.
14:03
I think a guilty pleasure is a lovely way to
14:06
put it. And for all the difficulties that that
14:08
film had, nevertheless, it got at the heart of
14:11
something, which is the romance of... the samurai,
14:15
the values that attach to them and the loss of
14:19
all that very quickly. And so some samurai, you
14:22
know, end up doing quite well. They end up in
14:23
business. They end up in all sorts of other areas
14:26
of life. Others go bankrupt. You know, they start
14:29
businesses that fail or they can't really adapt
14:32
to modern life. So they lose out. Women and girls
14:35
lose out. Women, I think feminists would say,
14:38
probably ended up with less freedom after the
14:40
major restoration than before. Young girls end
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up working in textile mills with horrible hours
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and horrible conditions, you know, disease, all
14:49
sorts of awful things, because Japan suddenly
14:51
has to compete with India or Italy. So there
14:54
are losers as well as winners. And that's one
14:56
of the things in the book I was trying to explore,
14:58
trying to get a, you know, a more balanced view
15:00
of that period. I love how they try to kind of
15:04
soften the blow of industrialization with these
15:08
great slogans. I can't remember at the top of
15:11
my head, but it's like Japanese spirit Western
15:13
technology or something like this, you know.
15:15
We're still Japanese, but we are modernizing,
15:18
but we're still Japanese, you know, rest assured.
15:22
You know, it's funny, a lot of what Westerners
15:25
now love about Japan come out of... a kind of
15:30
conservative backlash against the Meiji restoration
15:32
right if you've got some Japanese as you had
15:35
saying extreme things like the Japanese language
15:38
is not fit for purpose anymore. Let's all speak
15:41
English. It's more efficient. We can communicate
15:43
better. Let's all become Christians because there's
15:46
something about Christianity that seems to produce
15:48
great civilizations, British, French, Russians,
15:52
Americans, all Christian civilizations, they
15:55
would say, a bit more complicated than that.
15:57
Even some of them were saying, we all need to
15:59
go and get an American wife. because they know
16:01
how to run a household properly. And we need
16:04
to kind of inject some Western blood into the
16:06
Japanese bloodline. All these fairly extreme
16:08
ideas, right, being bandied about in the 1870s
16:11
in particular. And so Japanese conservatives
16:13
come back and say, look, we've got a history
16:15
centuries long. Do we really have nothing to
16:18
contribute to global culture? You know, are we
16:20
just going to become a kind of copy of Great
16:23
Britain at the other end of the Eurasian landmass?
16:26
And so they say, no, OK, we've got samurai culture.
16:28
We've got Zen Buddhism. tea ceremony um we've
16:33
got art we've got the value of silence if you
16:36
go into a bookshop certainly in the uk and you
16:39
look for non -fiction titles about japan those
16:41
are all the things that people are emphasizing
16:44
now sometimes it's ikigai or forest bathing or
16:48
how to be more japanese these things originate
16:51
in a backlash to the meiji restoration because
16:54
conservatives were saying let's not forget what
16:56
it means to be japanese and let's come up with
16:58
a version of japanese culture that we might be
17:01
able to sell to the West. So there's that really
17:03
interesting strand, I think, coming out of this
17:05
period. So this isn't stuff from like a thousand
17:08
years ago. It's a reaction to the Meiji Restoration.
17:11
It is, yeah. I mean, they don't create these
17:14
things sort of absolutely out of nothing because
17:17
the tea ceremony, you know, is a big thing in
17:18
Japan since 15th, 16th centuries, Zen Buddhism.
17:23
is obviously an important part of Japanese culture.
17:26
But Zen Buddhism is a good example of how things
17:29
get slightly repackaged for the West, because
17:31
as many as Zen Buddhists will tell you, it's
17:34
more than sitting and sort of staring at a wall
17:38
for hours and hours on end and occasionally being
17:40
beaten with a stick by your Zen master. They
17:43
also read sutras. They study. There are rituals.
17:46
But the idea that Zen is. completely about silence
17:51
and that silence gives you this kind of intuitive
17:54
connection with reality in a way that words can't
17:57
that gets really heavily emphasized in the late
18:02
19th century when zen masters i mean dt suzuki
18:06
is very famous in the early 20th century start
18:08
publishing in English for a Western audience.
18:11
The Japanese, I think, are quite good. When they
18:13
get to know the West better, they say, yeah,
18:15
brilliant industrialization, technology, science,
18:17
all good. And yet there's been a spiritual cost
18:20
in the West to this rapid development. People
18:23
have lost touch with nature. Their religion doesn't
18:27
work anymore. All these sorts of problems that
18:29
people have. Japanese are quite quick to pick
18:31
up on that and say, here's something that we
18:33
can offer back, you know, to improve the balance
18:36
of global trade in ideas. And I think that is
18:40
where, let's say, not entirely new ideas about
18:43
Japan, but significantly repackaged ones come
18:47
out. I'm thinking of Bushido right now, like
18:50
every Eastern European kickboxing gym is going
18:53
to have this kind of Bushido, like, you know,
18:55
like way of the samurai slogan. Or like even
19:00
some dodgy rappers have like a Bushido tattoo.
19:04
Millennia old, like code of the warrior or whatever.
19:07
And I think you mentioned in the book as well
19:09
that it was compiled actually in the Edo period
19:12
when all the fighting was done and over with.
19:15
Yeah, well, exactly. Compiled in the Edo period.
19:18
So some of the most famous warriors in Japan,
19:20
people like Oda Nobunaga, this great unifier.
19:22
He's actually one of the most popular figures
19:24
in history amongst Japanese people. So he's around
19:28
in the late 16th century, helps to unify Japan.
19:30
But famously bloodthirsty, he would be happy
19:32
to kill women and children if necessary. He would
19:35
never have heard of Bushido. And if you called
19:38
him a samurai, he might have cut your head off
19:39
because samurai means to serve someone. So in
19:42
all sorts of ways, it's much later. But it's,
19:44
you know, era, yes. But actually, the version
19:46
that we know comes from a book, I think, 1899.
19:51
Bushido, the soul of Japan, published in English
19:54
as part of this sort of backlash against Japan's
19:58
westernization, trying to say to Westerners,
20:01
you know, you have your chivalrous knightly culture.
20:04
So do we. Here's what we have. Here's why you
20:06
should respect us. So, yeah, even that, I think,
20:08
is part of it. Making its way into some Slovenia
20:12
like MMA gym. Isn't that an interesting journey?
20:16
Oh, yeah, yeah. A very interesting one indeed.
20:18
All right. Back to modernization. So the efforts.
20:21
seemingly paid off just a couple of decades later
20:24
when the Japanese got into a tussle with the
20:27
Russians and won against all expectations. I
20:30
believe the first time when an Asian power bested
20:32
a European one in the modern era, at least on
20:36
the battlefield. So the victory greatly elevated
20:38
Japan's international standing, but it came at
20:42
quite a high cost, didn't it? It did. It's worth
20:47
saying, I think, why that was so important. You
20:49
put your finger on it exactly. You know, it's
20:51
the first time in the modern era, an Asian over
20:54
a Western power in the kind of racialized rhetoric
20:56
of the time, a yellow nation over a white one.
20:59
Yeah, yeah, well, exactly that. One of the other
21:02
reasons it was important in Japan, I think, is
21:04
that some of the... most extreme modernizers
21:07
who wanted to be completely, not completely,
21:09
but really seriously westernized. They used to
21:12
enjoy dressing up in kind of ball gowns or suits,
21:15
drinking cocktails, smoking cigarettes, and kind
21:18
of doing ballroom dancing. So critics in the
21:20
newspapers, this is the late 19th century, they
21:22
would say, this does not impress. westerners
21:26
and in fact um i think it's there in the book
21:28
but there's a french cartoonist who drew a japanese
21:32
couple dressed up for a night out doing ballroom
21:34
dancing standing in front of the mirror admiring
21:36
themselves and the reflection back from the mirror
21:39
is two monkeys wearing the same dress so i think
21:43
that accurately gets at the way that westerners
21:46
found it amusing if the Japanese started wearing
21:49
suits, but they weren't necessarily going to
21:51
fall down on their knees in great respect for
21:54
Japan just because of that. And I think those
21:56
critics were right. Those critics were saying,
21:58
the Japanese critics this is, were saying what
22:01
Westerners will really respect is power. And
22:05
if you want to be at the top table globally,
22:07
you need to tool yourselves up and show them
22:11
that you are their equal. And so the victory
22:15
in 1905 of the Japanese over the Russian Empire
22:17
was that moment where they said, OK, we can do
22:21
what you do. We've modernized our armed forces.
22:23
We've booted out the samurai, you know, who might
22:26
on the battlefield just be after taking your
22:28
head for the sake of their own family's honor.
22:30
And instead, we've got these former peasants
22:33
who will basically just take orders and run into
22:35
the guns if we if we require them to. And it's
22:38
a really the casualty rate in that battle is
22:41
extraordinary. That war is extraordinary. But
22:43
it's worked. We are now truly a modern power
22:46
globally. And we're the first Asian power to
22:50
successfully modernize. And so in countries like
22:53
Korea or China that might want to do the same,
22:55
they can come to us and we'll give them a sense
22:57
of how to do it. So I think it's a huge moment
23:00
for Japanese self -esteem at home and reputation
23:03
abroad. Yeah, I think in the book you write how
23:07
even like Mahatma Gandhi made a journal entry
23:10
about like, you know, there's hope in Asia. or
23:13
something like that, because of the Japanese
23:14
victory. Yeah, this was actually, so this was
23:17
his great colleague and friend, Jawal Al Nehru,
23:20
who became the first prime minister of India.
23:23
Yeah, but no, exactly as you say, he wrote in
23:25
his journal, this was a great pick -me -up for
23:27
Asia. I think it's worth remembering that one
23:31
of the ways that European colonialism presented
23:33
itself in Asia, including via its education systems,
23:38
which a lot of top Asian intellectuals went through,
23:42
was that European civilizations are deeply rooted,
23:47
are flourishing, are polished, in all sorts of
23:53
ways are unbeatable. And so funnily enough, one
23:58
of the other things that happens around the early
23:59
20th century, this war, this victory over Russia
24:02
is huge because it pushes back against that narrative.
24:05
But another thing that happens, just as a brief
24:07
aside, is that along comes Sigmund Freud and
24:10
psychoanalysis. And he starts to say, here are
24:13
the dreams and fantasies, including the sexual
24:15
fantasies of Europeans. And some intellectuals
24:18
in Asia absolutely love that because here are
24:21
these colonizers who presented themselves as
24:22
being the ultimate human beings, whether it's
24:25
culture, war making, economics, trade, they are
24:28
unassailable. But actually in private, here are
24:31
their fantasies. It really helps people's self
24:34
-esteem in Asia. So anything that pushes back
24:37
against that, very powerful way in which Europeans
24:40
were presenting themselves in Asia, I think is
24:44
pretty potent. Yeah, and the Russo -Japanese
24:46
War was an important moment. What a lad, Sigmund
24:49
Freud. Yeah, fascinating man. All right, so in
24:54
Japan, the 20s are an exciting period of intense
24:57
urbanization, of new technologies like radio
24:59
popping up all over the place, of different cultural
25:02
and philosophical strands, people rushing to
25:04
try... hypnosis and psychoanalysis and and and
25:07
boozing and smoky izakaya that stuff i especially
25:10
love how tokyoites already started kind of cosplaying
25:13
during this time you have a couple of great photos
25:16
of japanese waitresses dressing up as a sort
25:19
of like if i remember correctly american flappers
25:21
in the book just for the fun of it and it all
25:24
kind of reminded me of weimar germany minus the
25:28
cocaine of course but also like in in you know
25:31
in germany the country was slowly sliding towards
25:35
militarism and its own kind of brand of fascism.
25:38
How did that happen? I think the comparison with
25:42
Weimar Germany is excellent and is so important
25:45
because the way that conservatives in Japan start
25:49
to react, for example, to photos, you say those
25:52
young women dressing up as flappers influenced
25:54
by French and American cinema as well as jazz
25:57
music, the reaction is... that japan is losing
26:01
its soul under influence from the west the fact
26:05
that women some women at least were more independent
26:08
than they had been in the past you know if you
26:10
were a young girl in a rural japanese village
26:12
and you were really ambitious for yourself and
26:15
very brave as well you could move to a city like
26:17
tokyo or osaka leave your family behind get yourself
26:21
an office job or a cafe waitress job um and live
26:24
that kind of independent life so for japanese
26:27
conservatives the idea that women would be doing
26:28
that was like a breakdown of the family um it
26:32
showed that japan was was sliding um i think
26:35
it also showed for japanese conservatives that
26:37
um money was in control of everything so you
26:41
know in japanese kind of confucian influenced
26:43
culture and i think it's still there in japan
26:45
in the early 20th century um traders and merchants
26:49
and money are right at the bottom of the social
26:51
hierarchy because people who are in that world
26:53
aren't really producing anything They're just
26:56
exchanging the produce of others. They're not
26:59
craftspeople. They're not farmers. They're not
27:01
obviously samurai either, for the most part.
27:03
So money is at the bottom of that hierarchy.
27:07
Japan, yes, has become a capitalist society by
27:10
this point. But again, for conservatives, these
27:13
people are tolerated because they help to grow
27:15
the economy. They're not really loved. And there's
27:18
a sense... in the 20s and early 30s when now
27:21
and again when Japan struggles economically that
27:23
these big companies like Mitsubishi or Mitsui
27:25
are willing to sell Japan down the river because
27:29
they have no pride and patriotism they have no
27:32
real interest in Japan as a country flourishing
27:34
they just want to make some money and so a city
27:37
like Tokyo starts to become you know exhibit
27:40
A for the argument that japan is going in the
27:44
wrong direction westernizing family values gone
27:47
corporate interests ruling everything civilian
27:49
politicians aren't much respected japan's diplomats
27:52
aren't much respected the the conservatives will
27:55
say that japanese diplomats when they go and
27:56
negotiate with the americans and maybe smoke
27:58
a cigar with them they actually like anglophone
28:01
culture more than they like their own culture
28:03
and so they make these terrible deals so that
28:06
all seems to come together and colour less in
28:09
the 1920s and early 30s. And Japan is on the
28:12
cusp, I think, of really big trouble at that
28:15
point. But I think the last thing worth adding
28:17
there is that a lot of Japanese newspapers are
28:20
offering that take on Japan going to the dogs,
28:25
because it makes for good headlines, right? And
28:28
you're going to sell a few newspapers. So that
28:30
idea in Japan, you would encounter that more
28:34
or less everywhere. And it's really striking
28:36
to me that when Japan goes through this trauma
28:39
of the great earthquake, the great Kanto earthquake
28:41
in 1923, 100 ,000 people dead, much of Tokyo
28:46
and Yokohama devastated. People have dug up evidence
28:49
of Japanese out in the countryside saying that's
28:53
a divine punishment. It's no accident that it
28:55
hit Tokyo and Yokohama, these centers of westernization.
28:58
The gods are saying, think again. We really need
29:02
to remake Japan. We need to push back against
29:05
this Western influence. So that powerful swell
29:09
of feeling, it's not just a tiny group of militarists
29:12
who end up capturing Japan, as maybe we'll talk
29:15
about in a moment, but it's a much bigger groundswell
29:18
of popular opinion in that period. Right, right.
29:22
As a terrible foreshadowing of what's to come
29:25
during this earthquake, there's also like a dreadful
29:27
massacre of Koreans in Japan, right? Yes, absolutely.
29:32
And it's difficult to, in retrospect, to know
29:36
quite what was going on there. I think part of
29:41
the context was by that point, Japan's empire
29:43
in Asia was expanding to include the Korean Peninsula
29:47
since 1909, 1910. There'd been, especially among
29:52
young Koreans, there'd been some serious pushback
29:54
against that, some violent resistance, which
29:56
the Japanese put down with extraordinary violence.
30:00
And so what some historians think is that some
30:02
of the police who were in Tokyo at the time of
30:06
the earthquake had served on the Korean peninsula,
30:08
didn't like Koreans, regarded them as unwelcome
30:13
in Japan and likely to cause trouble. And so
30:16
when you get these rumors going around, which
30:18
is what happens during the aftermath of the earthquake,
30:21
that Koreans were poisoning wells or setting
30:23
bombs to make the most of the chaos to try and
30:26
cause serious trouble for Japan. Some of the
30:28
police were either prepared to believe that or
30:30
to kind of turn a blind eye to allow this massacre
30:34
to happen. On the other side of it, just briefly,
30:36
I think it's important to note that some Japanese
30:38
people let Korean people into their homes and
30:41
hid them. and took care of them while all this
30:44
was going on in the streets. So it's a complex
30:46
picture. But it's certainly shocking that that
30:50
kind of violence could take place. And it gives
30:52
you a sense, you say it foreshadows, I think
30:54
that's right. It just also gives you a sense
30:56
of the way that the growth of Japan's empire,
31:00
and it's just trying to copy what the Europeans
31:02
are doing. You know, a top power must have an
31:04
empire in this period. But the growth of that
31:06
empire really poisons relationships. in East
31:10
Asia. And I think that still exists now. And
31:14
no doubt we'll come on to that a little bit later.
31:16
How do the militarists take over then? And what's
31:19
exactly the ideology that's propelling them?
31:21
Because in Europe, we have it easy. We can say
31:23
fascism in Italy, Nazism in Germany. But what's
31:27
going on in Japan there? That's much more hazy,
31:30
at least from a European perspective. I think
31:33
it is more hazy. One of the things that really...
31:36
sticks out to me about it, I think because of
31:38
the times that we're living in, is that there's
31:40
a generational element. So in the 1920s, if you're
31:45
a Japanese person in your 60s or 70s, you remember
31:48
when Japan was weak. You remember the aftermath
31:51
of Perry. You remember this scramble to secure
31:55
your country's position in the world. And you
31:58
remember that you need to treat other powerful
32:01
nations very carefully. But if you're in your
32:05
teens or your 20s in the 1920s you don't remember
32:10
that that isn't part of living memory and maybe
32:12
you're bored of hearing about it from your parents
32:16
generation or your grandparents generation the
32:18
reason that rings a bell for me now is that there's
32:21
now and again survey evidence that young people
32:23
in the west are more interested in political
32:26
competence from their government than they are
32:28
democratic values lovely to have both but if
32:31
you had to choose If you've got a government
32:34
that leans more authoritarian but can secure
32:37
you a job and, you know, to use that classic
32:39
phrase, make the trains run on time, then maybe
32:41
you're in favor of it or you don't mind. That
32:44
generational thing is happening in Japan in the
32:47
1920s. So young people, especially young men
32:51
who enter the Imperial Japanese Army, and especially
32:55
from rural parts of Japan, are starting to...
32:59
think that there's something badly wrong with
33:00
their country all the things that we just talked
33:02
about they're worried about added to which rural
33:06
areas of japan sometimes suffer more during times
33:11
of economic hardship than the cities and there's
33:13
a perception really big perception in the imperial
33:15
japanese army that civilian politicians who live
33:19
in cities whose interests are in the cities who've
33:22
maybe got dirty dealings with companies who mainly
33:25
sell things in the cities and make things in
33:27
the cities really don't care about the countryside
33:29
as long as the rice keeps coming in and the tax
33:32
money keeps coming in that's enough in parts
33:35
of rural japan especially northern japan at this
33:37
point Some families are so poor that daughters
33:39
are being sold into prostitution. They are just
33:43
eating whatever they can get their hands on.
33:45
There's malnourishment, all sorts of problems.
33:47
That feeds into the sense in the imperial Japanese
33:50
army that civilian politicians are selling the
33:53
country down the river as are diplomats. And
33:56
if you really want to find the source of real
34:00
Japanese values, and if you really want to have
34:03
a foreign policy that is run in Japan's interests,
34:07
The army needs to take care of that. And so you
34:11
have this process in the 1920s, early 30s, where
34:13
young officers put that kind of pressure on their
34:16
seniors. Bit by bit, the say of the military
34:19
in the way Japan is governed begins to become
34:23
stronger and stronger. I think maybe the last
34:25
thing I would sort of add on that context is
34:27
that Japan's constitution, the Meiji constitution,
34:29
never goes away. until after the Second World
34:33
War. It's always in place. So there isn't a great
34:35
moment of, you know, Nazi or Italian style takeover
34:39
by, you know, by a brand new regime. But in that
34:42
constitution... if you were to draw a really
34:45
simple kind of childlike diagram of it emperor
34:47
is at the top obviously and the armed forces
34:50
feed directly to the emperor not via civilian
34:54
politicians not via elected politicians so there
34:58
is always that potential for the armed forces
35:00
to put direct pressure on the emperor and to
35:04
go around civilian politics and also to put pressure
35:07
on civilian politicians because there isn't a
35:10
culture of the armed forces being under democratic
35:13
control. And I think that becomes a really big
35:16
problem for Japan. Unfortunately, we're totally
35:20
going to skip World War II because we could spend
35:22
about 72 hours just on that and still not get
35:25
through. Plus, we all, I think, pretty much know
35:27
the outline of major events there. Instead, I'm
35:30
going to ask you a question that's... Just as
35:33
gargantuan, I'm afraid. Less than two decades
35:36
after the fire bombings of Tokyo, the two atomic
35:38
bombs, the famine and the complete devastation
35:40
stemming from losing the war and losing it big.
35:44
In 1964, Japan already hosted the Olympic Games,
35:49
always a mark of prestige on the international
35:52
stage, having not only recovered, but seemingly
35:55
flourished in the meantime. What was the reason
35:59
for this pretty spectacular rise? Japanese ingenuity,
36:03
was it Americans kind of pouring everything they
36:05
had into creating a counterbalance to the rise
36:08
of communism in Asia? Was it a combination of
36:11
both or was it something else entirely? Yeah,
36:14
I think all those things are going on. The Japanese,
36:18
I think, owe the United States a great deal in
36:22
those early post -war years, which maybe sounds
36:24
like a strange thing to say for a country that
36:26
had had two atomic weapons used against it by
36:30
the US. But within a few years of the Second
36:33
World War, the U .S. picture of a likely post
36:37
-war world is one where, of course, the Soviet
36:39
Union and soon a nuclear -armed Soviet Union
36:43
is a huge player in Asia. China, of course, goes
36:47
communist in 1949. And so for the Americans,
36:50
Japan is extraordinarily important, as it is
36:53
now, actually, as a reliable ally in East Asia.
36:57
And so the Americans pour a great deal of money
36:59
into Japan. Japan is under America's nuclear
37:03
umbrella, so it doesn't have to spend anything
37:04
on its own defense. Of course, under its famous
37:07
pacifist constitution, it's really not allowed
37:10
to spend very much money on defense anyway. The
37:13
Americans trade with Japan. They help Japan come
37:16
back into the international community. They tolerate
37:18
exchange rates that are great for Japanese trade
37:21
and maybe not so good for the US for a while.
37:23
It's the kind of thing that really upsets Donald
37:25
Trump. now so that period is still with us you
37:28
know in all sorts of ways so a lot is done for
37:31
japan i think by the united states um the second
37:35
thing i think happens is that japan by the time
37:39
of the second world war of course is technologically
37:41
very advanced scientifically very advanced it
37:45
has a huge capacity industrial capacity and a
37:48
huge um a huge swell of scientific and technical
37:53
know -how, which after the war can be redirected
37:56
away from weapons technologies towards things
37:58
like the Shinkansen. So if you look at the guys
38:00
that built the Shinkansen, most of them worked
38:02
for the Imperial Japanese Navy. Oh, I didn't
38:05
know that. Right. It makes sense, though. It
38:08
does, doesn't it? And some of the technology
38:10
in the Shinkansen is wartime technology. The
38:14
idea of a bullet train was a wartime idea, and
38:17
it was literally supposed to carry... bullets
38:19
um as well as go very fast because you wanted
38:21
to get you know the japanese empire mainland
38:23
asia you want to get your your goods to and fro
38:25
as quickly as possible um i think the same is
38:28
true of a great company like sony which is a
38:32
post -war company um which started out with many
38:36
of its top people having worked in the imperial
38:40
japanese navy um and so people in japan have
38:44
that capacity. And I think they also have, if
38:47
you look at biographies from that time, they
38:50
also have a huge amount of energy now that the
38:53
militarists have gone away. And Japan's place
38:56
in the world is going to be secured via culture,
38:58
via science, via technology, that they want to
39:01
use what they have to try to rebuild the country.
39:03
So there is an unleashing, I think, of personal
39:07
energy, of economic energy. And you see that
39:11
by the late 1960s, the rate of Japanese economic
39:15
growth, more than 10 % every single year, the
39:18
kind of thing we've only recently seen in China,
39:21
although that now seems to be declining. So for
39:23
all those sorts of reasons, Japan... Japan is
39:25
doing very well. I think maybe a third reason,
39:28
which is a little bit more nuanced in terms of
39:31
whether it's a benefit for Japan or not, is this,
39:33
that kind of like in the period after Commodore
39:37
Perry arrived, there's a sense in Japan that
39:40
different parts of Japanese society have to come
39:42
together to rebuild the country fast. What that
39:47
looks like after the Second World War, I think,
39:49
is, yes, Japan is now a democracy, and yet...
39:52
Politicians and bureaucrats and company leaders
39:56
behind the scenes cooperate together. They say,
40:00
you know, what are we going to focus on? Is it
40:01
going to be electronics? Is it going to be cars?
40:04
And behind the scenes, they'll come together,
40:06
make laws, make plans, arrange tax breaks so
40:10
that industry can be built up quickly, which
40:13
sounds like a good thing. And in all sorts of
40:14
ways, it is. I think critics would say, though,
40:17
that the cost of that was that Japanese democracy.
40:22
never really got off the ground. So the Liberal
40:24
Democratic Party, you know, who've just given
40:27
Japan their first female prime minister, have
40:29
almost never been out of power in Japan since
40:32
they were formed in the mid -1950s. I think that's
40:35
one of the big costs. Maybe the other big cost,
40:38
and we'll come to talk about this a bit more
40:39
later, is Japan's foreign policy has essentially
40:43
been formed in Washington, D .C. for the last
40:46
few decades. That now is changing. We're in a
40:49
fascinating and also very worrying time. But
40:52
for many decades, that was the case. And it meant,
40:55
for example, that it was harder for the Japanese
40:57
to build bridges with China, because the US didn't
41:00
want the Japanese talking to communist China.
41:02
So that I think was another cost of what's otherwise
41:05
a very successful period. And when did Japan
41:09
become such a powerhouse in terms of soft power?
41:14
Japan glazing is all over social media today.
41:17
And it was there when I was growing up, even
41:20
like 30, 40 years ago already. When did Westerners
41:26
or foreigners in general become obsessed with
41:29
Japanese cultural products? Was that even before
41:32
the Second World War? Yeah, I think after the
41:35
Second World War is the big period to talk about.
41:37
I think there is a lot of love for Japan before.
41:41
uh the second world war a lot of europeans and
41:44
westerners you know they would go there and they
41:46
would say especially if they're disillusioned
41:49
with industrial society back home it's ugly it's
41:53
brutal it's smoky you have losers living in i
41:57
don't mean losers in the contemporary sense i
41:59
mean people who've lost out you know um in the
42:02
process of industrialization who are living on
42:04
the streets in Glasgow or London or San Francisco.
42:07
So they see all that. They go to Japan. They
42:09
say, oh, people here, they're still in touch
42:11
with nature. They live in these smoke -free cities.
42:14
They have a healthy diet. They have these beautiful
42:16
temples and shrines. In all sorts of ways, people
42:19
do fall in love with Japan. And one of the reasons
42:20
why we think Kyoto was spared bombing in the
42:25
Second World War. That was a scene in Oppenheimer,
42:27
I think, right? Yes, I think it's there, isn't
42:29
it? Yeah. It's at least mentioned right where
42:33
you cannot destroy, you know, in Europe, the
42:36
eternal city is Rome. In Japan, the eternal city
42:39
is Kyoto. And it's thought to be untouchable,
42:42
even in that, you know, in that extreme situation
42:44
of a world war. So there was that love for Japan.
42:47
After the Second World War, I think two things
42:49
happened. One is that the Japanese government
42:51
wants to push via its embassies and other means
42:56
a kind of high culture. version of japan and
43:00
it's still doing that now so things like kimono
43:02
calligraphy buddhism not samurai culture and
43:08
not samurai swords for kind of obvious reasons
43:10
right after the second world war um but they
43:12
push the rest of it then what happens at the
43:15
same time is not the government but ordinary
43:18
creators after the second world war making manga
43:22
making anime um And they have this really interesting
43:26
approach, which informs the work of people like
43:29
Tezuka Osamu, godfather of manga. Also, Miyazaki
43:33
Hayao, you know, everyone's a Ghibli fan these
43:35
days. Yeah, because they've lived through the
43:39
war. They have a very vivid memory of it through
43:42
family. In the case of Tezuka, he literally saw
43:46
dead bodies floating down the river in Osaka.
43:50
They want their art to be able to talk to young
43:54
Japanese in an adult way. They don't want patronizing
43:57
cartoons for children. They want to say to children,
44:00
look, the adult world is mixed. People can be
44:04
cruel. They can be evil. They can stab you in
44:06
the back. They can try to pull the wool over
44:08
your eyes, which is what... people thought the
44:11
militarists had done, you know, in claiming that
44:14
Japan needed to have this empire and enter these
44:17
conflicts when in fact it wasn't necessary. Because
44:20
of all that, they create art that feels fresh
44:24
and new and compelling when it goes abroad to
44:26
the West. It's that mix of what looks like it's
44:29
for children, but in fact has these extraordinarily
44:32
deep and subtle messages. Really from the early
44:35
1960s, that's coming. So Atom Boy. as we call
44:40
him in the West. I'm sure a lot of your viewers
44:42
will have seen this image of a boy robot with
44:44
kind of slick black hair and rockets propelling
44:48
him around the place. He does really well in
44:51
America. Although interestingly, this is a creation
44:53
of Tezuka Osamu. When he negotiates with American
44:56
TV to try and get this shown, the anime version
45:00
shown in America, he has to make all these cuts
45:02
because the Americans say for children, you can't
45:07
show. violence past a certain level so when someone
45:10
has a gun to his head you'll be very careful
45:13
about how you show that you can have slightly
45:15
implied violence but you can't have actual violence
45:18
so what tezuka says was you know really a country
45:21
that just nuked us doesn't want us to show their
45:24
children violence there seems to be a real i
45:26
think double standard as far as he's concerned
45:28
um so there are kind of rocky there's a rocky
45:30
road there but bit by bit um these sorts of creations
45:34
take off In the US, Akira Kurosawa, the samurai
45:38
films. I think the really big moment, though,
45:40
and this is when I was growing up in the 90s,
45:43
is two things happen. One is Nintendo becomes
45:46
huge around the world. You know, the first, that
45:49
boxy grey console that we have at home in our
45:51
kitchen, that becomes huge around the world.
45:54
And then there's a Disney deal signed, which
45:59
means that Ghibli films get much greater distribution
46:02
than they previously had. So I think these moments
46:05
in the 90s really get that soft power ball rolling.
46:10
And then, of course, it just explodes in the
46:12
2000s. I'm totally siding with Japanese creators
46:15
here because watching Disney cartoons obsessively
46:19
as a child, they didn't prepare me for the real
46:21
world. I've got to be honest. Interesting point.
46:23
Yeah. And I think what's interesting about what
46:27
partly works about Japanese animation in the
46:29
West, I think, is that... visually they draw
46:31
on some of those that tezuka was a big disney
46:33
fan he loved the the old betty boop cartoons
46:37
you know where she's got those big saucer like
46:39
eyes you can see lots of that in the aesthetic
46:41
can't you and yet there's that extra depth and
46:45
messaging that as you say is is maybe more realistic
46:48
prepares you for real life all right so japan
46:52
was doing Just as great, if not better, until
46:55
the infamous asset bubble burst in the 1990,
46:58
which resulted in the so -called lost decades,
47:01
from which it never really recovered. And its
47:04
economy is still stagnating today. But Japan's
47:07
stagnation coincides pretty perfectly with the
47:10
rise of China. Now, throughout the book, you
47:13
make the case that Westerners, as well as the
47:16
Japanese themselves, always loved this story
47:19
about Japan being the first and the most advanced
47:21
modernizing force. in asia and that story remained
47:25
pretty unchallenged until now because in 2025
47:29
china with its cutting -edge green tech ai and
47:33
speed rail seems decades ahead not just in front
47:36
of japan but everybody else for that matter.
47:39
I always laugh when on social media I see posts
47:42
about Japan is living in the future, but living
47:44
here myself, I can pretty confidently say that
47:46
it's living firmly somewhere between 2001 and
47:50
2005. It's a great 2005, don't get me wrong,
47:54
but it's still 2005. So I'm wondering how is
47:57
this obvious fact that they're no longer that
48:00
place being resolved in Japan these days? Yeah,
48:05
that's a very good question. It made me think
48:06
when you were speaking there, there's a viral
48:08
video on social media a few months back where
48:10
they were testing in Japan a new maglev train
48:13
and it whooshes past and a journalist just breaks
48:17
into laughter. He's just so shocked and so pleased
48:20
to see it. And you think, my goodness, the Japan
48:23
of the Shinkansen era was so far ahead, really
48:28
was futuristic. And now the idea of a maglev
48:31
train makes people... kind of laugh with pleasure.
48:34
They've been promising to do this for years and
48:36
they're still struggling to get it done. So,
48:39
you know, what's going on there then? I think
48:41
one of the things going on, I wrote about this
48:43
recently on my Substack, which is why Japan is
48:46
struggling with AI. And you have this interesting
48:49
period, I think, in the 90s, you know, you mentioned
48:51
the bubble bursting and Japan economically stagnating.
48:55
Another thing I suppose that happens in the 90s
48:57
and the early noughties is that the kind of...
49:00
Cutting edge of innovation more and more stops
49:02
being about engineering, physical engineering,
49:05
and more about software and platforms. And also
49:10
about a model of innovation which involves risk
49:13
taking, venture capitalism, you know, these kind
49:15
of fail fast initiatives. And all that, of course,
49:19
we associate with Silicon Valley, you know, and
49:22
a single. train route i was reading the other
49:25
day where you can go from sort of google to open
49:27
ai to all these big all these big players um
49:30
i think you know japan more or less entirely
49:33
misses that boat partly i think it is about a
49:39
culture business culture that is a little bit
49:41
more conservative that takes its time that builds
49:44
things up the idea of throwing money and that's
49:46
something and just fingers crossed it's going
49:48
to work um Maybe it's different now in Japan,
49:52
steadily changing, but certainly back in the
49:53
90s, that was just not going to happen. I think
49:56
that that's one problem. The kind of culture
49:58
of innovation has been one issue. With AI, it's
50:01
also a problem of language. I think another one
50:04
is. A British politician went to Japan. I think
50:08
it was the early noughties. And he was quite
50:10
famous. He went there because we were in a recession
50:12
in the UK at the time. And he went to Japan and
50:14
he looked at people in Tokyo eating out in Michelin
50:18
-starred restaurants, Louis Vuitton handbags,
50:21
driving cars that look like they just come out
50:24
of the showroom the day before. He said, if this
50:27
is a recession, I want one. Because Japan still
50:30
seems to be affluent and happy and secure. I
50:34
do think there's an argument. that says until
50:36
the power of China became clear and the relative
50:41
backwardness of Japan also became clear, which
50:44
is I think really only in the last few years,
50:46
to live in Japan was still for many people quite
50:50
a happy experience. I think some in Japan might
50:52
actually say that the global downturn, 2008,
50:56
2009, maybe was the moment of reality check for
50:59
Japan. I certainly think between then and now
51:02
anyway. attitudes in Japan have begun to change.
51:05
But for a good while, you could live in a country
51:08
where foreigners in Western media might say,
51:11
oh, my goodness, their economy's awful. How is
51:14
their government going to help them recover?
51:16
Actually, to be in Japan was a comfortable experience.
51:20
And there wasn't, I don't think, that great sense
51:23
of urgency from the population and famously political
51:25
inertia as well. I think all those things kind
51:28
of came together. But really, in the last 10
51:31
or 15 years, I think it's starting to change.
51:34
I think we're entering a new phase in Japan's
51:37
history now. Life is still great here, don't
51:40
get me wrong. But I went to the civil office,
51:44
city ward office here recently, and I'm astounded,
51:48
even coming from Eastern Europe, where I'm originally
51:50
from, that I had to sign like 85 documents of
51:54
paper to change my address. And I've been told
51:58
that it's because... Japan sometimes seems like
52:01
country run by older people for older people.
52:04
And older people are really reluctant to adopt
52:07
any sort of digital technology. So everything
52:10
still runs on paper and it just can drive you
52:12
nuts sometimes. It feels like the Kremlin in
52:15
the 60s or something. And it strikes me, you
52:17
know, I was reading the other day about Japan's
52:20
vending machine culture, right? One of these
52:22
really famous things that visitors always want
52:23
to go and have a go at. Or indeed, toilets. There's
52:28
a lot of tinkering around the edges technologically.
52:31
So you can have vending machines now that will
52:33
use AI to track footfall, you know, the number
52:36
of customers around the vending machine. And
52:40
depending on that, it'll calculate whether it
52:41
needs to drop prices, especially if it's selling
52:44
salads, right, which are going to go out of date.
52:46
So that's useful. That's a nice idea. But it's
52:50
fairly marginal. Right. And if you have a toilet
52:54
where the seat, I don't know, maybe remembers
52:56
your preference for how warm it might be. Again,
52:59
it's a nice to have. It's one of those innovations
53:02
that feels like it's perhaps part of Japan's
53:04
omotenashi culture. You know, the idea that we
53:07
try and give people as easy a life as possible,
53:10
which I think is love. It's one of the reasons
53:11
people absolutely love the country. But in terms
53:15
of technology that's going to be properly game
53:17
changing for Japan, that's not really. And it's
53:21
interesting, I think in the last couple of years,
53:23
you've seen politics in Japan being more and
53:26
more dominated, wherever they are on the political
53:29
spectrum, by the same few ideas, which is we
53:33
need greater food security in Japan. We can't
53:37
be importing so much food anymore. We need to
53:40
be able to secure our own semiconductors. We
53:43
can't rely on Taiwan only for that, for obvious
53:47
reasons. our rare earth materials we can't be
53:50
getting so many of those from china anymore and
53:53
we need to be a global leader in ai partly because
53:57
with a shrinking population that's one of the
53:59
few things other than mass migration famously
54:03
controversial which might actually help japan
54:06
survive this massive population decline that
54:09
they're facing so there seems to be that um urgency
54:14
now in japanese politics which i haven't seen
54:17
in earlier periods. Whether that bears fruit
54:20
or not, who knows? But I think that's happening.
54:24
Just one more thing, since you mentioned it already.
54:27
One fact that absolutely blew me away when I
54:29
first came to Japan was, like you said, the same
54:32
conservative party, the Jiminto, has been ruling
54:34
for 70 years, I believe with a single two -year
54:37
interruption. How come the left never managed
54:42
to get a foot in the door in this country? I
54:45
think people would say early on it stood a good
54:48
chance because immediately after the Second World
54:51
War, the left had a certain kind of moral authority
54:56
because they had been the ones opposing what
54:59
was happening to Japan in the late 20s and 30s.
55:01
A lot of socialists and communists were in prison.
55:04
A lot of them were in the ground because they
55:05
died in police custody. So they had a chance
55:09
at the beginning. I think a couple of things
55:11
happened. One was that the left was split. Early
55:14
on, classic story with the left. And it didn't
55:17
manage to get the crucial electoral foothold.
55:20
Instead, these conservative parties managed to
55:22
come together, forming Jiminto, the LDP. And
55:25
they've done very well since then. Another thing
55:28
I think went on was that America's support for
55:31
Japan was covert as well as overt. And some of
55:35
the covert support by the CIA was. plowing a
55:39
lot of money and a lot of practical support into
55:41
LDP and into conservative groups in Japan. I
55:44
think that helped them a great deal. Maybe a
55:47
couple of other things just briefly. I think
55:48
another one was that conservative politicians
55:50
had better connections with the civil service
55:53
in Japan. So in terms of actually getting stuff
55:55
done, they were a good partnership. And then
55:58
if you bring in some of Japan's large companies,
56:01
either the new ones like Sony or the old ones
56:03
like Mitsubishi starting again after the war,
56:05
again, those relationships were quite strong.
56:07
And so then the LDP becomes known as the party
56:11
that gets stuff done. You know, if you're becoming
56:13
richer, if you can afford a car, a fridge, a
56:15
television, and the LDP have done that for you
56:18
in your eyes, you're going to keep voting for
56:21
them, you know, over and over and over again.
56:23
So, you know, it's really only since the 90s
56:25
when the economy stalled that a lot of voters
56:28
have said, you know what, the LDP, they're incompetent
56:31
now. They're famously corrupt. Money is always
56:34
a problem in Japanese politics. It's time to
56:36
boot them out. But for a good few decades, if
56:38
you were an aspiring politician as a young man
56:41
or woman, you would probably ask yourself, which
56:44
faction of the LDP shall I join, you know, to
56:47
promote my chances rather than which party? That
56:49
would be a ridiculous question for, I think,
56:52
most people. So for all those sorts of reasons.
56:54
And it's remarkable now in the era of Prime Minister
56:57
Takaichi that the LDP is still managing to hold
57:01
on by tacking slightly towards the right, you
57:05
know, under pressure from. parties like Sanseito,
57:08
these new far -right parties, it's still exploring
57:11
ways that it can hold on to power rather than
57:13
accept true multi -party democracy in Japan,
57:17
which we don't quite yet have. Last question,
57:22
a very ungrateful one for any historian, but
57:24
where do you think we're going? On one hand,
57:27
China is rising. On the other, the population
57:29
is shrinking. Economy is stagnating. Far -right
57:32
parties, outsiders like Sanseito. also on the
57:36
rise, what do you think is going to happen? Goodness,
57:41
yeah. So the crystal ball, always a trap for
57:43
historians. I'm sorry, this is a podcast, not
57:46
like a peer -reviewed journal. Exactly. Fair
57:49
enough then. And I think it's a brilliant question.
57:53
It's a really important one. I suspect one thing
57:58
that almost certainly will happen is that Japan's
58:02
security... posture is going to become more robust.
58:05
So there was a word came out of the Prime Minister's
58:09
office, I think yesterday, I'm just writing about
58:11
it today on my sub stack that Japan needs nuclear
58:15
weapons. Now, the Chief Cabinet Secretary comes
58:19
straight out and said, No, no, no, we don't,
58:21
there's no change to our policy. But it is known
58:24
that Prime Minister Takaichi is not necessarily
58:26
committed to what are called Japan's three nuclear
58:28
principles that they'll never produce them, they'll
58:31
never possess them, they'll never permit them
58:33
on their soil. That may be slightly revised.
58:36
I think the Japanese see the long term trajectory
58:39
in East Asia as one where the United States either
58:43
can't entirely be trusted or is in decline anyway.
58:46
And so Japan's security becomes Japan's responsibility.
58:50
So I think you're going to see a more beefed
58:52
up self -defense forces with a wider remit. for
58:56
getting involved in East Asia. I don't pretend
58:58
to know what's going to happen with Taiwan or
58:59
something like that. That's just beyond anyone
59:01
really to say, I think. But I think you will
59:03
see that more robust security arrangement. The
59:07
big question otherwise, maybe the last one to
59:09
finish on here is whether Japan is going to become
59:13
a multicultural country or not. So Japan famously...
59:18
claimed of itself that it's homogenous lots of
59:20
people who've been living in japan for years
59:22
who have korean ancestry would say actually not
59:24
really the vibe has shifted let me tell you in
59:26
the last couple of months it's not that welcoming
59:29
anymore and i'm white right because before i
59:33
give you sort of my view on it'd be lovely to
59:35
hear from you living there what what have you
59:38
what have you i can't pretend to be any sort
59:40
of like a connoisseur or whatever i've been here
59:42
for like a little over two years but my wife's
59:44
japanese So she tells me a lot of stuff that
59:47
she's reading on Twitter. And I have some discussions
59:49
with, you know, some Japanese people sometimes.
59:52
And there's, I don't know, it just seems a bit
59:54
frosty out there recently, to be honest. That's
59:57
interesting. I do have a lot of lovely Japanese
59:59
friends, don't get me wrong. The people are absolutely
1:00:01
amazing. But sometimes, you know, there are comments,
1:00:04
there are stuff that you necessarily in Europe,
1:00:07
you wouldn't hear anymore. And yeah, makes you
1:00:10
feel a bit less welcome here. And if it's like
1:00:13
this for me. Or maybe I'm just sensitive. I can
1:00:16
only imagine what it's like for people from Southeast
1:00:18
Asia or China or from non -European countries.
1:00:22
Yeah. One thing I'm seeing, I think, on social
1:00:26
media and a little bit, I was in Japan in September
1:00:28
speaking with Japanese colleagues, is countries
1:00:32
like Britain and France being held up as places
1:00:36
where... Were destroyed. I think, yeah, where
1:00:40
we've ended up failing as societies because we
1:00:43
let in people from all over the world. We lost
1:00:45
our identity and now it's all litter and crime
1:00:49
and terrorism. Yeah, London is being mentioned
1:00:52
here all the time. Really? That's interesting.
1:00:55
And Paris presumably would be another. I think
1:00:58
that's there in Japan, isn't it? I mean, you're
1:01:01
sort of confirming that that's the view, partly
1:01:03
influenced, I think, by the US, who have famously
1:01:05
negative views on the right about some of our
1:01:08
cities like Birmingham, for example. So that's
1:01:11
there. You also have a kind of decline porn trend
1:01:14
on social media, which you've probably seen,
1:01:16
which is influencers, sometimes Japanese, but
1:01:19
often actually Westerners, who film a very sort
1:01:22
of narrow and unrepresentative moment and say,
1:01:24
oh, what's happening to you, Japan? Oh, it's
1:01:27
because of all the migration. One was hilarious
1:01:29
because they filmed, they said, oh, look at all
1:01:31
this litter. And what they'd filmed was the bin
1:01:34
bags that a company had put out overnight and
1:01:37
neatly stacked and tagged, ready for the rubbish
1:01:39
truck to come along and pick them up. So it's
1:01:41
got nothing to do with migration or littering
1:01:44
or anything. It's just mad. But nevertheless,
1:01:46
it only takes now and again, these stories about
1:01:49
an influencer, you know, drinking a can of drink
1:01:52
that was left at a graveside as an offering.
1:01:54
That was terrible. What a douche that Australian
1:01:57
guy. Yeah, right. Yeah. Is it Logan Paul? Is
1:02:00
that the name? No, no, I think he was the one
1:02:02
who went to the forest a decade ago and found
1:02:05
a dead person there. That was Logan Paul. This
1:02:07
was a new streamer, some, excuse my language,
1:02:09
shithead. That was really bad. It's awful. It
1:02:13
doesn't take many moments like that, especially
1:02:15
when they get amplified, I think, first on Japanese
1:02:18
social media and then on ordinary Japanese TV.
1:02:20
It becomes a popular theme, foreigners behaving
1:02:24
badly. What I would hope is that... That doesn't
1:02:29
go too far. But Japan does have to have a conversation
1:02:31
about, are we going to be, quote unquote, a Japanese
1:02:35
country that has a much smaller population? And
1:02:37
how do we do that? Or are we going to keep our
1:02:40
population and economy roughly the size that
1:02:42
they are, but figure out what does a multicultural
1:02:45
Japan look like? What would our values be? And
1:02:49
funnily enough, often it's sort of a demonized
1:02:51
figure on the left in Japan, but otherwise quite
1:02:53
popular. Shinzo Abe, this famous prime minister.
1:02:56
longest serving prime minister who was assassinated
1:02:59
a few years ago he was in favor he never really
1:03:02
fleshed out the concept but he was in favor of
1:03:05
what he called civic nationalism so it's a kind
1:03:08
of nationalism yeah where ethnicity doesn't matter
1:03:10
unlikely source i thought he was super like extremely
1:03:13
right wing yeah i think on this he's often misinterpreted
1:03:18
and misunderstood i don't say i would agree with
1:03:20
him on everything necessarily that he did or
1:03:22
stood for But civic nationalism, I think, is
1:03:24
interesting. And I think it has legs as an idea.
1:03:26
So ethnicity, blood, family, doesn't matter.
1:03:29
Are you signed up to a core set of values that
1:03:33
define Japan? Are you prepared to live according
1:03:36
to those? Up to a certain point, you do not want
1:03:38
to go back to a tightly controlled society by
1:03:41
any means. But these basic values that often,
1:03:43
as you know, in Japan are kind of unspoken. Whether
1:03:47
it's something trivial like how you might...
1:03:49
speak and eat or not eat on a train or whatever
1:03:52
it might be people in japan i think i mean your
1:03:55
wife probably has a view um these things are
1:03:57
quite precious actually and if you go abroad
1:03:59
and then you come home to japan and you see things
1:04:01
working you think well actually do we have to
1:04:04
give up on these just for the sake of our economy
1:04:06
not going down the toilet so i think if that
1:04:09
kind of civic nationalism can be explored and
1:04:12
talked about and potentially made to work that's
1:04:15
quite an interesting future for japan i think
1:04:19
The other future that some people worry about
1:04:21
is where you have an underclass of people from
1:04:25
Southeast Asia and elsewhere, perhaps even including
1:04:27
humanoid robots when they finally come along.
1:04:31
They're the kind of underclass. And then you've
1:04:32
got this smaller privileged elite of quote unquote,
1:04:37
you know, homogenous, pure Japanese existing
1:04:39
on top and controlling things. And that doesn't
1:04:43
sound like a happy. or a functional society to
1:04:47
me. I don't pretend these things are easy by
1:04:49
any means, but I think for a long time in Japan,
1:04:52
politicians have wanted to avoid the conversation
1:04:55
about who are going to make up the population
1:04:59
in the far future. And I think they're at the
1:05:01
point, partly because of the rise of the right,
1:05:03
actually, where that conversation can't be avoided
1:05:06
anymore. I don't know where it's going to go,
1:05:08
but I do think it's probably a conversation that
1:05:10
people are going to start to have to have more
1:05:13
and more. Dr. Harding, what an absolute delight.
1:05:17
Thank you so much for taking the time. People,
1:05:18
buy the book and join the Substack, Japan and
1:05:23
the World. What are you working on right now?
1:05:25
Do you have any social media? Yeah, I'm venturing
1:05:27
into sort of making short videos. I'm on Instagram,
1:05:30
Chris Harding Japan, and also YouTube, Chris
1:05:34
Harding Japan. Okay, we'll tag you there. Oh,
1:05:37
thank you. And I'm working on a book at the moment,
1:05:39
hopefully out next year, on... The first period
1:05:44
when Japan and the West came together in the
1:05:47
16th, early 17th centuries, the Warring States
1:05:49
period, where the Portuguese turned up and they
1:05:52
bring their guns and their cake and their Christianity
1:05:54
and telling the story of the Warring States,
1:05:59
these three great unifiers. People know it now
1:06:01
from Disney's Shogun probably as much as anything
1:06:03
else and Assassin's Creed as well. So yeah, the
1:06:06
book is going to explore that brand new period
1:06:09
for me. Looking forward to it. And when you publish,
1:06:12
I hope you come back. Thanks again. Lovely. Thank
1:06:15
you very much. Thank you very much for listening.
1:06:16
Please subscribe to the podcast on YouTube, follow
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1:06:21
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