Latest / Financial Survival Network / Hard Landing Alert -- Lobo Tiggre #5860

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Hard Landing Alert -- Lobo Tiggre #5860 · Financial Survival Network

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I think teamsoft Landing is dead wrong. I think labor hoarding in the US
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among other factors, while also just base effects. Unlike some gold bugs out
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there who will remain nameless, I have been warning people for more than a
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year that the base effects would mean that the reported CPI numbers would come down.
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It would be harder for them to keep increasing at that pace absent more
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money printing, which we haven't had. You're listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival
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thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival Network now more than
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gift. Financial Survival Network now more than ever. And welcome you are listening
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to watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm your own carry love. Well,
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is there going to be a soft landing, a hard landing, or a
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moon landing, a lunar landing? That is the question. And hey,
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maybe maybe if they replaced our policy makers with AI, we would never have
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another recession. What do you think about that? Well, Lobo Tigra's on
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with us now and make sure you've go over to his site Independent Speculator dot
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com. Hey, great to have you back, Lobo. So as you
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refer to them prequel Team soft Landing, they seem to think that everything is
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fine, We'll just have a brief slowdown and then you know, inflations under
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control. Uh maybe the war and Ukraine will end at some point in the
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not too distant future. So what's what say you? Well, there's a
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lot of ways I can go with that. Carry Um, I want to
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come back to the AI think because I think there's actually something very important and
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investment related that people should keep in mind, not just ideological. But to
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answer your question, I think Team soft Landing is dead wrong. I think
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labor hoarding in the US among other factors, while also just base effects.
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Unlike some gold bugs out there who will remain nameless, I have been warning
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people for more than a year that the base effects would mean that the reported
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CPI numbers would come down. It would be harder for them to keep increasing
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at that pace absent more money printing, which we haven't had. So I'm
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not surprised by the circumstance. I will say that I am surprised. I'll
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go on the record with you here, Karrieus. I am surprised by how
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quickly and how deeply the reported inflation numbers have come down. And this matters.
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And I know, dear audience out there, I'm sure you're as skeptical
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as I am of government statistics. You know there's lies, damn lies statistics.
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Said, then the ultimate is government statistics, right, I get that.
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I'm numbers. That's where you know, the comics traders and lima traders,
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they trade on these numbers. And as long as we mistakenly refer to
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their trades and their futures contracts as the price of gold or whatever, it's
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gonna push those prices around. And so we can't ignore that data even if
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we disagree with it. So what I'm saying, though, is for these
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and a number of other factors, I think the US economy is much weaker
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than it looks. The global economy is as weak as it looks, and
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maybe more some. I mean, we don't have to worry about the hidden
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weakness than the global ecoman Just look at China and U and the EU,
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where inflation pop back up again, by the way, including the all imployment
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still called core inflation pop back up instead of them down. So I think,
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you know, I'm sorry to say this, and you know me and
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any of the your audience that has washed our past interviews, and if not
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go back and check them out. I'm not the arm waiving. This guy
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is falling, you know, head for the Idaho Bunker now, sort of
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guests that you might have on sometimes, you know, But I really think
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that the brown stuff is going to hit the fan. And it's it's not
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someday that you look at main street cheerleaders on Wall Street and they're like,
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you know, even the most barrish of them is thinking, well, maybe
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recession in twenty twenty four. I think that the weakness that has massed in
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the US economy will be revealed this year. And I'll either be flat out
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wrong on this carry I'll be right. If I'm right, it will make
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a big difference to our investment decisions. Well, I'm inclined to agree with
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you because I believe we've been in a recession since inflation spiked, but because
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inflation's understated, the GDP deflator, which is basically you deduct inflation from GDP,
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has been askew, and real growth has been decidedly negative. And look,
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anecdotally, you go around any city in the United States, the number
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of homeless people's increased. That's generally non people or fronts and all that.
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Yeah, I mean, like right, every time we see I remember,
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just yesterday I tweeted about the lower inflation in Canada, and basically all of
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my Canadian followers are all like, what, you know, that's not what
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I see when I go in the store or when I go anywhere or do
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anything. My cost keep going up. Actually, this is this touches on
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something that's a big pet peeve of mine. You know, I'm writing about
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this now, so your audience gets ahead and start on this. The whole
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word disinflation shouldn't exist. It should be stricken from everybody's vocabulary. There's really
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no such thing. It refers to a decrease in the increase in inflation.
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It's still increasing, right, I mean, you know, And to put
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this word on it, people bandy it around disinflation. It sounds like deflation.
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It sounds like a good thing. It's not a good thing. It
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is a somewhat less bad thing, right, it's and but that word is
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out there, and everybody can talk about disinflation like things are getting better.
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It doesn't mean things are getting better. So pet peeve of mine, and
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it relates to what we're talking about. And it's part I think of a
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deliberate um, you know, messaging, massaging, manipulation, if you will,
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of the populace. It's you know, it's propaganda. It's just like
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transitory inflation, both tested and proven in action until it was disproven in reality.
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But it was a great talking point and it's uh, it's just a
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talking point with a purpose. It wasn't just like, oh they chose the
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wrong word. Oh they made an honest mistake. It's a completely dishonest,
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unmistaked. It was deliberate at you know, push the herd in the direction
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the powers that be wanted it to go. News speak. Hey, it's
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just like in the Great Depression and they said, prosperity is just around the
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corner. Right. That was the talking And let's not forget whip inflation.
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Now, yeah, I was, you know, I was giving away win
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buttons. Somebody sent me an email requesting a win button. You know,
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I bought a few of them on eBay and that was Gerald Ford's a big
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contribution to inflation. Liz if Hey, maybe they should be wearing it at
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the Federal Reserve. Put that over their doorstep, right because Milton Friedman said
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it best, nobody will ever say it better. Inflation is first and foremost
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a monetary phenomena. And what does that mean, Lobo? Well, actually,
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right now, it's important for those of us who make that quote always
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in everywhere a monetary phenomenon, to recognize that M two has been shrinking,
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you know, the fact has been reducing its balance sheet. And I'll I'll
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admit more than I thought they would. They've stuck with that more than I
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thought they would. And okay, again, government numbers, I get it.
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But still, you know, those are the numbers that people trade on.
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They put input into the equation. So if you're going to say when
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when the M two is increasing and the money supplies increasing, oh, this
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is inflationary. You can't then turn around and say what it's decreasing that it
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doesn't matter. It's just a government lie, right, you know, it's
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it's that same number. So I mean, I mean this matters for us
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right now. And it's it's interesting to me that in that environment where we've
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seen a significant decline, Okay, it's not like healthy, happy, hunky
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dory. But it's a significant decline in M two and here we are at
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gold still around two thousand bucks and outs. It's really quite strike the appetite
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out there for gold and the face of headwinds like that at higher rates and
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the FED tightening all this stuff, you know, and there's people out there
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pulling their hair out because gold isn't higher. It should be three thousand,
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or it should be whatever. But the fact that it isn't down when it
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seems like the powers that be are throwing everything they can at it, I
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think it says a lot about the strength of the demand out there, or
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the perception of the reality. Despite the prop again and the spin that we're
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talking about. There's people out there that get it. Yeah, yeah,
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absolutely, let's not forget. Yeah. M two is down. But the
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emergency facility to keep the banking system afloat every week for the past month has
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been hitting records record draw down, which is really another way of calling it
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QE because basically they just take all their crappy securities, drop them off at
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the discount window, and they get alight. Let me let me jump in
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on that, because I think that's really really important. Carry you just put
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your finger on something that I think the mainstream is either ignoring deliberately or just
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doesn't get. But I think it's very very important. You know, the
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powers that be, they're all telling us everything's fine. The regional banking crisis,
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it was just you know, concentrated and a few poorly managed banks.
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You know, the banking system is sound, Everything is fine. Nothing to
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see here. These are not the droids you're looking for. Move on,
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right, But this facility that you're talking about, what the Fed did that?
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That's not just a band aid and a kiss on the boo boo.
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That is an absolute crisis response that basically bail everybody out without bailing them out,
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Like we're not giving you just the bailout, but we're allowing you to
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redeem your underwater paper at par Right, that's a bailout. And it wasn't
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just a few banks, it was everybody. It was across the board.
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Like that was an absolute emergency response. You know, it seems to have
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worked for the time being, right, you know, kick the can down
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the road. But but don't let them kid you, don't don't let anybody
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tell you that that was a nothing Burger that nothing really happened here. That
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was a major and I think part of our earlier conversation will reveal Team soft
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landing to be wrong. You know when when when we get our payday carry.
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I can't tell you when. I can't promise when. I think things
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generally will be inclined to fall apart over the next quarter or two. But
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don't forget that there's still this crisis mode out there. They've been, you
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know, like tamping down these fires left and right. That doesn't mean there's
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no more fire out there. You know, if the FED breaks something else,
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and that could be happening already, Like the next thing that breaks,
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he's probably already broke it. We just haven't realized what it is yet.
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Like the guilt thing in the UK and so on. Something happens and until
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it until it goes vertical, until it really breaks in a visible way,
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and then you look back and you say, oh, yeah, well we
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should have seen that coming. Or you know, I think we're in that
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process now, so you know, we'll see I'll either be right or I'll
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be wrong, and it will be like forever or someday it will be this
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year. I think either things deteriorate just on a progression or the FED breaks
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something else. I don't incline more to the latter. I think we're more
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likely to see a sudden wake up moment, smell the napalm, and Wall
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Street starts to panic. Yeah, I love the smell and napalm in the
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morning's. Let's also not forget about China, the so called engine of growth
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in the world. Now, you talk about government statistics the ultimate lies.
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I mean, you can't believe if they tell you this guy is blue,
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you definitely can't believe them, because you very rarely see a blue sky in
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China. It's usually gray, dark gray, or weird colors from all the
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chemicals being pumped into the atmosphere. But by all accounts, they're housing market
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is doa ever. Grand A just closed its doors permanently. I mean they
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are on zombie life support for the past six months, and every other major
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real estate company probably is going to file follow a suit as well. And
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that's like, yeah, maybe it's good for flight capital coming to the US,
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right, because they've been so far. That's a pretty slender silver lining
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there carrying and they're really caught between the rock and the hard place, because
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I mean, Beijing very deliberately clamped down on the excesses in the real estate
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market because you know, it was going crazy. They had used it to
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stimulate it got out of hand and created all kinds of never mind the ghost
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cities, but these insolvencies, you know, unsound business practices written large.
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Okay, so they pull it in, they clamp down on it. Fine,
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it makes sense. But you know, if that's what your growth depends
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on, then you choke it off. What's gonna happen. You know,
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there's people who are saying, oh, well, look, China's last GDP
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report six point six percent. That's great. But even in the mainstream there's
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people who are recognized, well, wait, not so fast. A year
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ago, they were still in a lockdown. So it was expected that the
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GDP numbers or lies or whatever they are, you know, the numbers that
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we get, you know, would be higher in the first half of this
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year because of those base effects. But that goes into reverse in the second
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half of this year, and even mainstream people are worried that this six point
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six percent now is nowhere near enough for China to hit it's five point five
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percent by the end of the year. So yeah, yeah, I mean,
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I agree, I think that's very worrisome. And bring it back home
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a bit. You know, we mentioned earlier how Team soft Landing is cheering
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here in the US, but it's more evident around the world that there's trouble.
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China is you know, the eight hundred pound guerrilla of economic trouble right
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now. And I think it's a mistake for you know, Americans to think
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that somehow the US economy can be just fine when the rest of the world
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goes to heck in a handbasket. Yes, we have more you know,
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food and oil and gas internally than a lot of other countries. We depend
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less on our trading partners than many other more vulnerable blocks, but that doesn't
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mean we're fully independent. And despite everything that's happened after the New the New
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Iron curtain has started going up, and despite the post COVID deglobalization, it's
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still a global economy. Yeah, and you know, you could say,
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okay, well, you know, the US economy only depends or the sp
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five hundred. I think only a third of the stocks are exporters. Well,
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but if that third goes to zero, not to zero, if that
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third crashes, it still hurts, and the entire economy it is resistant to
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external harm, but not immune, and it's a mistake to conflate those two.
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You're exactly right. Uh yeah, we haven't decoupled from the global economy
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yet. And those trends, I mean in China, you see parts of
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Shanghai, you know the videos escape where literally there's all these stores that were
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booming free pandemic are shut down and whole areas of Westerners have left. Large
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chunks of Westerners have shut down and left the country. So yeah, I
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think it used to be when the US sneezes, the rest of the world
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got a cold. Now China sneezes. I think the rest of the world
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gets pneumonia. And that's just more more evidence to what you said that the
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hard landing is imminent and the Panglossian view of those out there you know that
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everything happens for the better isn't true. Everything doesn't happen for the better,
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especially when it comes to a weakened global financial system that had a near existential
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event in OA No. Nine and we've done nothing to change it, you
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know, still the same system. So takeaways financial survival network, what can
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we do to be helpful to people. You know, my fellow goldbugs don't
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like it when I say things like this, but I actually think that in
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the nearest term, the very nearest term, the appearance that teamsoft Landing is
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right is barish for monetary medals. You know, if the safe haven demand
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goes down, if the people who have been thinking, oh, well,
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you know, maybe we should consider allocating you know, just a little bit
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to gold. You know, if that stops, that's material. You know,
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maybe central bank buying makes up for it. Maybe we're at two thousand
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dollars gold plus or minus because of central bank buying, despite Team soft Landing
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appearing right. But you can't count on the central banks for anything. I'm
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sure your audience doesn't mean to tell them, you know, not to trust
17:56
central banks. So if the goldbugs hopes are all pinned on this infral banks
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are going to save us, you know, that's that's not a great thing
18:04
to put a lot of weight on. So yeah, I don't trust them.
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And therefore, you know, even if they do keep buying, even
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if bricks are headed for goldback currency or whatever, you know, that's a
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multi year thing. It doesn't tell us that right now, they're going to
18:18
help us right now, and that's important in the faces. So you know,
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I'm I'm not one of these people that says every day is always the
18:27
best day to buy gold, bye bye, bye bye. I think right
18:30
now it is actually prudent to hold back golden gold stocks to wat for potential
18:36
weakness in the nearest term. You know, people are tired of buying opportunities,
18:41
but I do think that's what it would be. You know, from
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everything that we've said is interviews so far, that the nearest term pullback would
18:48
be before the next leg upwards. So I'm not saying, you know,
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dump all your gold stocks forget gold, you know. And I'm not a
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drop gold guy. I'm just trying to be honest with your audience here instead
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of just being a cheerleader and promising it can only go up. I think
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there is a significant risk of near term downside in our favorite in our favorite
19:08
medal. Now here's the funny thing. Sorry, I know you've got a
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question there. Let me just say. The funny thing is that silver might
19:15
actually outperform in this landings themes. Right then, Hey, that's great for
19:21
industrial metals, and the silver's industrial side has you know, even the most
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diehard silver bugs recognize that silver's industrial side has become a tailwind when you know,
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they're building more solar panels and all this stuff. So you know,
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oddly enough, the very thing that could whack gold in the nearest term could
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boost silver. And last time I look, silver was over twenty five bucks
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an hour, which has bubble getting over recently. So that's interesting. But
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then reality comes back, you know, and if I'm right about that,
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you were right about that in the recession, you know clearly that's going to
19:56
whack industrial metals, and I think that will happen by this fall, you
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know, So so be very wary of saying, oh, it's all safe
20:03
to get back into copper or lithium or whatever your favorite industrial metal might be.
20:08
Silver has gone up a low of seventeen fourteen announced on the Comax.
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It's at twenty five, so it's up nearly fifty percent at the same time
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gold is up, but you know, not nearly so much. You know,
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silver has been the performer here and maybe that's the trend for the future.
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People get mad at me because I talk about silver's greater industrial side.
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I've been dubbed Darth silver and all that because of this changing use case.
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But you know, you know, the goal is to make money, not
20:42
to be religious about our favorite metal. And if the goals to make money,
20:47
you can't ignore the data and just just look at the charts. Silver
20:52
is tracking copper more than gold this year and wild chief soft landing seems right.
20:56
That's a fine thing. You know, when the session deniers give way,
21:02
which I think they will, I think that's going to whack silver more
21:03
than gold. You know, this is I'm not trying to beat up on
21:08
anybody's favorite metal. I'm not trying to cheer lead anybody's favorite metal. I'm
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trying to provide the most straightforward you know, reporting an analysis of market trends
21:18
that I can Yeah, I'm in complete agreement with you. Hey, when
21:22
there are liquidity events in the market, in the stock market, it always
21:27
hits the metals. We've seen that over and over and over again. So
21:32
if there's the event that you're talking about coming up, the hard landing realization,
21:37
if that turns into a liquidity event, metals are going to get slammed
21:41
in the short term. And uh, you know, metal stocks are also
21:48
going to get slammed and eventually that they bounce back nine perfect example. This
21:56
is actually another important thing because it really is worth stressing and thinking about dear
22:02
audience, because you know, goldbugs and I'm a gold bug, but most
22:07
of us we have the skepticism or the mainstream, and that feeds into an
22:12
assumption that they're doing something wrong right, and that feeds into this. It's
22:17
like, let me put it this way, what year does do most gold
22:19
bugs not think Wall Street's about to crash? It's every year and okay,
22:25
some years it does crash, but most years it doesn't. So even if
22:29
we get this recession and the recession, denying goes away as I think it
22:33
will, that is not the same thing as saying that markets must crash.
22:36
And markets are very forward looking. The markets may see the recession and morally
22:40
because they think the Fed and the Congress will come to the rescue. So
22:44
it is not saved to assume that, even if we're right about the economy,
22:47
that therefore mister market should do the rational thing. He often doesn't,
22:51
you know, as the saying goes, you know, remain irrational longer than
22:52
you can remain solvent. Yea, So exactly what I was fighting point here
22:56
my rant, and I just I just think this is important because I get
23:00
an email or call or something like if it's not weakly, it's certainly monthly
23:04
of the markets are going to crash. What should we do. Shouldn't we
23:07
sell and get out before the market crashes and then buy back in at lower
23:11
prices or something like that at some point that might be the right thing to
23:15
do, but nobody knows in advance. And like I say, you know,
23:19
if goldbugs think that way every year and they sell and they sell their
23:25
gold stocks because they think the market's going to crash and then it turns out
23:29
that it goes the other way, you've made a huge mistake. You've you've
23:32
either you know, jumped, you know, bailed on winning plays too early,
23:37
or you've realized unnecessary losses. So I'm not I'm not trying to tell
23:41
anybody that there's not going to be a crash this year. I think it's
23:44
possible, but I think it's a mistake to assume that you know that there
23:48
will be, And certainly it's worth being careful about in your actual investment decisions.
23:55
Absolutely, and just reminds me of the Yogi bearras yogiism that you know,
24:03
prediction is very hard, especially when it's about the future. So remember
24:08
that it's difficult to predict the timing. People. You could follow cycles and
24:15
make a lot of money, but following a cycle is different than predicting the
24:19
future and actually how things are going to turn out. Cycles, it's a
24:26
trend and if you can cast them, they're great. But yeah, or
24:32
you see it's in motion, right, It's it's a very different thing to
24:34
say, hey, look here's this is trending upwards, I'm going to go
24:37
a long, or this is trending downwards, I'm going to go short.
24:40
That's very different from saying this is the bottom, right, or this is
24:44
the top, and that's an entirely different level of parel exactly. All right,
24:48
Well, hey, we appreciate your coming on. As always logo and
24:53
I urge everybody to go to the a site Independent Speculator dot com and the
25:04
link is in the show notes to this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com.
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Just click it you'll get through. While you're there, sign up for
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your free newsletter LOBO. Always a pleasure. Thanks for stopping by. Thank
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you, Carrie, good conversation. Thanks for listening to Carrie Lenz's Financial Survival
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