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Monday BEST BETS | Major League Monday | MLB | 7/27/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm man, a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your checks, the black coffee on the felt.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: Man, you look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: this man. But don't you go quiet.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Your names fells me something to somebody for show. Put
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: the glass.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Down, baby, look at me. No, hold on, hold on
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: nothing nice now, hold on, hold on.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Me that.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Hot but it don't get the crown. Hold on, hold on.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: Stay with me. Now, what's up? Everybody? It's towed back
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: with you with Toadstool Sports for Monday, July twenty seventh.
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: Run A nice run here, I believe run. I think
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: I got it wrong yesterday. I think it's now a
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: nine and two run since Wednesday. I think it's the
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: we're on right now, so hot for now at least
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: hopefully I can continue with that. But we went two
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: and one on the show yesterday. It looked like it
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: was gonna be three and oh. We got an easy
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: win with the early game with the under in Cleveland
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay one nothing final, Yeah, it doesn't really, it
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: doesn't get easier than that. Literally, there's no easier way
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: to win than that, avoiding extra innings as well. I'm
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: pretty sure that game was over in like two hours.
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: Like I didn't even I hadn't even checked the score.
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: It was like two something in the afternoon. I looked,
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: I'm like, oh, that game already finished. I'm like, what,
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: all right? And then we did win on Pittsburgh as well.
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: In the first five the bullpen almost blew it. They
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: won the game by one, but they were winning. I
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: believe they were winning eight to four or something at
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: the end of five innings. It was weird, man. They
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: put up a lot of runs. I think they were
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: winning seven to one at one point in that stretch there,
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: and then they Bracks and Ashcraft I think, started kind
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: of faltering and it was seven of not Bailey Vaulter,
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: I don't know where he is now, former Pirate, and
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: then it was seven to four all of a sudden,
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: and then I think, but the Pirates put up an
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: additional run in the bottom of the fifth when it
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: didn't matter anymore. At that point we knew they were
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: going to have the lead at the end of five anyway, whatever,
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: and then Texas's bullpen they're not going to get on
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: my good side. Man. I don't know what to tell you.
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: That game looked like it was going under Seattle, Texas.
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: It was a four to one game. I think in
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: the seventh inning or maybe the eighth inning, it was
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: looking like it was trending towards the under pretty well
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: at that point. Nope, Texas's bullpen completely implodes and they
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: lose six to four. You gotta be kidding me. I
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: don't know what else to say. Uh that Texas bullpen
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: is way worse than they should be that I thought
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: they would be. They use some of their better relievers,
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: didn't even matter. They completely blew it first five. I
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: don't think it would have won either, because I think
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: the number would have been three and a half in
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: the first five, and first five landed four. So the
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: under just didn't win in that game. I still think
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: it probably should have in the full game, though, so
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: I'm not happy about that. We'll start looking at Monday,
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: and I'm gonna give give out two plays here. They're
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: both gonna be first five sides today. Macado, what's up? Yeah, don't.
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to say Texas bullpen, they should
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: be pretty similar to last year. They have some of
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: the same guys as last year. They were one of
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: the best bullpens last year, and with the same guys now,
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: all of a sudden, they're like a possibly even a
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: bottom ten bullpen with the way they're pitching right now.
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to say about it. We got
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: twelve baseball games today. The first one is the completion
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: of a wrap round series. Speaking of Texas, that series
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: is completing today, so that series is continuing Seattle in Texas.
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: And of course I want up be right about Seattle
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: winning the game yesterday because the bullpen advantage got them
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: the win and they were looking to avoid the sweep.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: But I had forgotten they were also playing today, although
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: they still had the motivation yesterday. But yeah, this game
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: is today. I think Seattle is the better team, even
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: though their record is still worse than Texas. This game's
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: on ESPN Unlimited. I don't really think there's gonna be
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: a look ahead component here. It's a big divisional series.
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: Both teams should want to win this game here. Seattle
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: only used three relief pitchers yesterday. They used some of
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: their better guys, but Texas use five, and based on
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: what we're saying. You know, I'm gonna say Seattle's the
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: better bullpen, which I think is definitely the case. They're
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: number twelve here. They're a little bit more rested than Texas.
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: Texas is sixteenth. This is arranged by whip their e
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: RA in the fours year four point three. Basically, I
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: mean that's not great hitting wise, Texas has actually been
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: the better team. They're sixteenth, Seattle twenty seventh. But I
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: don't think there's that much of a gap between these
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: two offenses really either. Are we gonna get a low
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: scoring game finally in Texas, I don't know. I will
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: not bank on it in this game. I actually like
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: Seattle in this game, and this almost made my card
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: here after Seattle kind of flipped the script and won
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: the game yesterday. Kind of a brutal way for Texas
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: to lose. But I also think Seattle's got the pitching
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: edge here, not just in the bullpen, but in the
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: starting pitching as well. George Kirby's pitching for Seattle here.
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: He's not best pitcher, but he's alright. He's got a
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: three point five seventy RA one point two eight WHIP,
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: which is you know, you wish that whip would be
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: a little bit better, but it's not too bad. And
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: he's better on the road ERA wise three point one four,
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: but his opponent batting average is worse on the road
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: at three zero six. That's not good. So that does
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: kind of worn me a little bit. It's almost like
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: he's escaping on the road despite along a bunch of hits.
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: But he is in good form right now. He's had
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: six plus strikeouts in his last three outings, He's allowed
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: two or fewer eared runs and four outings in a row.
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: So yeah, he's in good form right now. He is
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: pitching well right now. He still has a high hit
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: rate on the season, so that's really his one issue.
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: He doesn't really walk guys. His strikeout rate is okay.
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: The hits are really the problem here. He's got to
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: somehow become a little bit less hittable. Texas has not
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: done well against him though they have one hundred at
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: bats against him, huge sample, and they have not really
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: succeeded two point fifty average, five to seventy nine oh ps,
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: twenty three to four strike out walk ratio, and Kirby
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: faced them twice early this season in April and he
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: did pretty well in both of those outings, one in
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: Texas and one in Seattle. So I think Kirby does
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: the line up to pitch well. Here. He's going up
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: against Kumar Rocker, who I think is the lesser of
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: the two pitchers here. Rocker can be good at times,
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: he's pretty shaky though. He's got a four point one
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: to three ERA one point three to one whip and
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: he's actually been worse at home at ERA wise four
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: point four to three, although his opponent batting average at
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: home is actually lower and he was better at home
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: last year, which kind of makes more sense because it's
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: a pitcher friendly ballpark. Rocker he was good in his
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: last outing against the White Sox. He's six in and
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: one hit them. That's pretty good. So maybe he's kind
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: of turning the corner and getting into form a little
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: bit here. His command numbers have been pretty good this month.
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: He's not really walking guys right now, but he's been
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: I don't know, maybe he's getting a little bit unlucky. Really.
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: You could argue with the amount of runs that he's allowed,
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: he's allowed too many home runs this month and that's
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: why he's allowed as many runs as he has this month.
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: You'll get his overall numbers here. Not bad. His hit
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: rate is okay, it's below one per inning. The walk
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: rate isn't too bad. Uh. The strikeout rate is okay
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: as well, so he's not really that bad. He did
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: face Actually, no, excuse me, I don't think he's faced
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: Seattle this year. No, it looks like he hasn't. But
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: he's faced them during his career forty nine at bats
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: where the Seattle's had the upper hand against him. Three
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: zero six average, nine to sixty four ops, thirteen to
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: five strikeout walk ratio. None of those numbers are particularly
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: good for him. So I think Seattle's got the edge
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: here with the starting pitching and bullpen. Like I said,
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: that's the way I would play this if I was
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: gonna do it. You have to lay a price with
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: Seattle on the road, though I don't know if I
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: love that price with Kirby on the mound on the
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: road minus one thirty something, minus one thirty six. It's
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: gone up from minus one twenty two at the Open.
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: So it looks like the money has come in on
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: the Seattle side seventy percent of the tickets, but also
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: ninety one percent of the cash, So it looks like
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: the money is actually legitimately on Seattle, at least for now.
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: And this is an afternoon game. If I was gonna
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: play it, that is still what I would do. I
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: would play Seattle on the money line, all right. Arizona Pittsburgh.
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: We got the win with Pittsburgh yesterday and they held
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: on at the end. It looks like they just made
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: a trade with the White Sox. They traded Orchtye to
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: or excuse the Pirates. Yeah, traded Orkety to the White Sox.
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: I don't know what they're doing to the White Sox.
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: I don't know how much that really matters. I'm assuming
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: he was pitching out of the bullpen because that's the
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: name I haven't heard in quite a while. Probably doesn't matter.
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh won yesterday against the Cobs. As I said, they
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: held on for the win. That's a big win, big
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: divisional win against one of the teams that's ahead of
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: them in the NL Central. Could possibly be a let
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: down coming off of that. They're staying at home and
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: playing Arizona here. Arizona isn't going to be that rested
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: because they did have to play that makeup game a
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: few days ago, so they played through. Haven't had a
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: day off for a while. They did just lose their
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: series to Washington. Now they're traveling in from losing to Washington,
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: so Arizona does have to travel, so they're at a
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: little bit of a rest disadvantage kind of here, plus
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: a travel disadvantage. But Pittsburgh might be in the letdown
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: spot here and Arizona could possibly bounce back after their loss.
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: Arizona probably has the better bullpen here, although they used
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: four bullpen arms yesterday. Pittsburgh only used two. But I
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: don't like Pittsburgh's bullpen very much. The bullpens Arizona's ranked six,
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: although their ray remains kind of high. But they're not
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: a bad bullpen. Pittsburgh is worse. They are twenty fourth,
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: not particularly good offensively. Pittsburgh is the better team. They're
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: third and they do hit well at home. Arizona twentieth,
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: So yeah, Pittsburgh has an offensive edge here. Starting pitching
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: is the battle of the mks, the guys who I
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: confuse their names half the time, which is gonna get
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: really confusing here. It's it's the MK Ultra pitching matchup.
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: Although there really hasn't been much ultra about these guys
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: this year. Merril Kelly's pitching for Arizona. He's having a
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: pretty bad season, a five point one two ERA one
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: point four eight whip. He's been much better than that
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: throughout his career, and I didn't really think that he
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: was gonna be this bad this year because he's never
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: really been a guy that relies totally on velocity or whatever.
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: But he is pitching a little bit better recently, and
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: he's been better on the road. Four point two eight
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: Roady Ray. Still doesn't mean he's gonna be able to
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: do well against a good offense like Pittsburgh, but he
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: is better on the road. He's been better recently. He's
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: given up two or fewer runs in every start this month,
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: going at least five innings and picking up three wins
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: out of the four starts. That's not too bad. He
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: is definitely improving on what he was doing earlier in
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: the season. Some of these numbers are still pretty bad though.
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is still too high. His walk rate
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: isn't really that good. He's given up a lot of
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: home runs. His strikeout rate is very low, so he's
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: not fooling anybody. Still definitely some issues here with Merril
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: Kelly against Pittsburgh. They haven't really hit him particularly well.
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: They only have four guys who have faced him twenty
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: five at bats, two hundred average, six ninety nine ops,
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: four to two strike a walk ratio. Not a huge
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: sample size to really gauge from. But Kelly has been
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: okay against Pittsburgh, and some of their guys will be
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: unfamiliar with him, but he's a guy that's been around
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: for so long and he doesn't really fool guys, so
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: I don't think the unfamiliarity's really gonna boost him very
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: much here. Pittsburgh's going with Mitch Keller, not to be
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: confused with Merril Kelly. Keller I think is the better
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: of the two pitchers currently, and he's younger. Keller has
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: kind of been struggling more recently, though he's got a
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: four point ninety array one point three to one whip.
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: He's struggled at home five point six to eight homy array,
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: so he's in the worst of his home roads. But
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: so Meryl Kelly is actually in the better home roads.
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: Itit's over Mitch Keller here. Keller was good in his
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: last down he shut up the Yankees for five innings.
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: That's not easy to do. But he wasn't really that
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: good in the couple outings prior to that, so he
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: was kind of struggling. It was kind of weird that
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: he was able to pitch that well against the Yankees
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: on the road. But he's actually better on the road,
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: as I just pointed out. His hit rate is alright here,
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: it's below one per inning. His walk rate isn't really
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: too bad. His strike out rate is fairly low, but
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: better than Merrill Kelly's against Arizona. I have to keep
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: switching it because it's a new series, which I hate.
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: He's got good numbers here in ninety four at bats
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: two two average allowed five seventy two ops twenty three
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: to five strike out walk ratio. So I think Pittsburgh
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: has the advantage in the starting pitching here, but Arizona
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: has the bullpen edge and the situational edge in my opinion,
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: even though I know I said they're unrested and they're traveling,
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: but Pittsburgh could be in a letdown spot after that
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: Cub win yesterday, and the money is fading Pittsburgh. You know,
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: I don't know why the professional money really wants to
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: back Merril Kelly here. But sixty one percent of the
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: tickets fifty seven percent of the cash on Pittsburgh's to
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is getting the money, and the line has moved
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: against Pittsburgh down from minus one thirty nine to about
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: minus one twenty. So the real money looks like it
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: has been coming in an Arizona at least for now,
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: unless you think it's a fake move or something like that.
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: I can't really read this game too well, but Pittsburgh
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: is about minus one twenty now. The money is saying Arizona.
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: The money is also saying the over in this game,
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: over nine. The money was backing the over in the
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: other game I just talked about too, by the way,
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: over eight in that Seattle, Texas game and over nine
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: in this one. I can understand the over. I mean
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: in this Arizona Pittsburgh game, and both both pitchers haven't
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: really been that good, so it's there are probably more
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: signs that this will be a higher scoring game than
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: a lower scoring game. But yeah, I don't know. I
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: don't have a good read on this game, man. I mean,
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: the market read is saying Arizona in this game. Mostly,
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: I don't want to do it. I think if you
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: play Arizona, you should play them full game and take
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: advantage of the bullpen advantage they should have here. If
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: you're gonna play Pittsburgh, I think you should make it
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: a first five play. But I don't have a whole
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: lot on that game at all. That game very difficult
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: to figure out. Baltimore at Detroit. Detroit just lost two
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: in a row to Kansas City, so they wound up
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: splitting that series at home against Kansas City. I don't know, man.
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: I mean, Detroit's not out of it, Like they're only
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: six games back in the Al Central. There are a
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: lot of games still have to play, so they're not
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: out of it. But it seems like people are kind
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: of acting that way since they couldn't win that series
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: against Kansas City. Now it's like, oh, they're definitely gonna
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: trade school. Well, now they're gonna throw the season away now.
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I honestly could see it going both
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: ways for Detroit here. I could see this being a
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: bounce back because that was ugly losing to Kansas City
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: at home, and they're staying at home here against Baltimore,
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: Baltimore is not a good road team. Detroit still has
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: a pretty good home record, although not as good now.
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: But Baltimore is coming in from a close loss yesterday
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: against Atlanta. They played all one run games against Atlanta,
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: so both these teams playing a bunch of one run
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: games recently. Baltimore could be in maybe a hangover after that,
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: but then again, they are also starting a road trip here,
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: and usually starting a road trip is a focus spot. Baltimore.
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: Their bullpen is not great, but they've been better recently. However,
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: they used a lot of guys yesterday in relief they
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: used five, so I don't think i'd really trust their
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: bullpen here. Detroit probably the more trustworthy bullpen the way
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: this sets up with three relief pitchers used yesterday. Baltimore,
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: like I said, they've been better, though they're ninth right
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: now in bullpen. They got their ra down. It's gonna
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: go below four probably, but I don't like the rest
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: set up here. Detroit seventeenth, but their era is better.
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: I'd probably give Detroit a little bit of a bullpen
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: advantage here. Baltimore offensively is probably the better team. They're
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: seventeen teenth, Detroit nineteenth so yeah, both teams haven't been
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: that good. Pitching matchup is kind of interesting. Kyle Bradish
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: is pitching for the Orioles. He's been pretty good recently.
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: He's got a three point four to nine ERA that's
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: pretty good all though his whip is kind of high
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: one point three to two indicates his RA should probably
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: really be Like in the force, he's been a bit
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: worse on the road. He's been really good at home,
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: but on the road three point seven to nine ERA
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: with a way higher opponent batting average, so he's not
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: as good on the road. He's been pretty good in
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: all of US starts this month, though, going at least
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: six innings in all of them, three or few earned
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: runs allowed in all of them. He's kind of been
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: He's been pretty good in five of his last six
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: starts really, so he's pitching better right now and he's
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: picked up a bunch of wins over that span too.
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: He has a pretty low hit rate here on the season.
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: Strike gout rate is pretty good, it's close to one
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: per inning. His problem is the walks. He walks too
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: many guys, so he's got to figure out how to
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: fix his command a little bit. That's definitely his one
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: issue against Detroit. He has also not been that good
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: in twenty at bats, so it's not too many at bats.
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: Six of their guys have faced him, but Detroit has
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: had the upper hand hitting against them when they have
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: faced him. Three point fifty batting average, nine thirty five
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: OPS three to three strike out walk ratio. So Bradish
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: is in good form, but this looks like it might
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: not be the greatest matchup for him, and Detroit's going
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: with Keeter Montero Kieder Montero. I don't know how he pronounced
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: his name. He's an interesting case as well. I mean
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: he's been back and forth between the bullpen and the
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: starting rotation. There is the possibility Detroit puts an opener
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: in front of him, so just be you know, be
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: aware that that might be a possibility. So if you're
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: gonna play this game, you might want to play action
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: on the Detroit side because I'm sure it will be Montero.
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: It's just a matter of is he gonna pitch the
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: first inning or not, although I believe he did start
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: the last game, so it's probably likely he will start.
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: He's been pretty good, a three point one four ERA
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: point nine to six whip That is solid, although granted,
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: pitching in relief is gonna boost your numbers a bit
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: because you're basically at your best for that small amount
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: of time that you're out there. Montero has actually been
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: a little bit worse at home three point five RA,
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: which is still good. Pitched well last time against the Cobs,
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: which I believe was a start, so he re entered
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: the starting rotation and had a good start there against
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: a pretty good line up in the Cobs. Overall, he's
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: got a low hit rate, low walk rate. His strikeout
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: rate is also pretty low though, so he's keeping guys
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: off the base pass but he also is not striking
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: anybody out against Baltimore. Bad numbers here, but Baltimore only
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: as six guys who have faced him, So both pitchers
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: in this matchup have bad matchup numbers, but in a
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: small sample twenty two at bats from Montaro here, but
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: Baltimore has a four h nine average and twelve to
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: fifty three ohps six to three strike out walk ratio
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: this game. I kind of I don't know, man, I mean,
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: it kind of has me leaning over based on the
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers that we just saw there. We have fifty
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets seventy four percent of the cash on
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: the over. It's at eight and a half here, so
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: that total's right there in no man's land and hasn't
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: really moved either. Both pictures are in decent form right now, though,
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: so I don't really necessarily want to fade them, but
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: it does look like the matchup does kind of indicate
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: more towards the over than the under. Here is what
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: I will say. Detroit does a slight favorite. They're like
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: minus one nineteen. That line hasn't really moved much either.
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: Sixty percent of ticket, sixty eight percent of the cash
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: on the Tigers, so it looks like they might be
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: getting some of the money coming in on the Tigers side.
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, I could see the argument for it, like
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: a bounce back spot, possibly after the losses to Kansas City.
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: So maybe the situation favors Detroit a little bit. And
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: then I think they probably have a little bit of
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: a bullpen advantage, not much though, I really don't have
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: much on this game. Garrett, what's up Braves? Yeah, well,
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: I mean they were able to sneak by Baltimore. I
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: mean I thought they were gonna lose again. Yesterday. But
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: luckily the way that I set up my plays, I
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: only had to play in the one game that Baltimore
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: happened to actually cash in. I don't have any plays yet.
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: I have two today. I was close to having Seattle
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: on my car though Seattle money line is the strongest
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: opinion that I've given out so far here Philadelphia at Miami.
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: I mean, my first instant, my first thought was like,
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: when I was watching what was going on last night,
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: I was like, I want to fade Philadelphia on Monday
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: because they they fall into that spot where they played
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: the Sunday night game and they demolished the Yankees last night,
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: so that should put them in a letdown spot plus
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: a quick turnaround times. That's a negative spot, big negative.
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: Whenever you play that Sunday night game, you have a
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: really good performance and everybody sees you do it, and
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: then you have the quick turnaround time you have to
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: play again. It's not a good spot. The problem is
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: if you want to fade Philadelphia, hear you got to
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: fade Zach Wheeler. And I don't really want to do that,
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: even though it's gonna be a big price on Philly here.
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: But Philly did also end a four game losing streak
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: with that win, so maybe that will give them some
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: new momentum. They are starting a road trip, which is
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: more often a positive than it isn't. Although even all
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: that being said, I still think it's mostly a pretty
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: negative spot for Philadelphia here though. But can we even
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: really consider backing Miami here. I mean, Miami's lost like
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: twelve games in a row now, they lost again yesterday,
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: but they're staying at home and they're catching Philly off
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: less rest and possibly in a big letdown spot. So
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: if Miami was gonna win a game like situationally, this
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: should be a spot where they could be able to
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: you know where you'd think that maybe they'd be able
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: to do it. But the problem is they're a huge
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: pitching disadvantage here. This is a pitching mismatch that favorites
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia here. So I'm not gonna come in and try
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: to play Miami here, even though, you know, if it
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: was a different sport, if it was football, I'd probably
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: be coming in and playing the playing the shittyam is
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: the underdog, you know what I mean? Baseball is different though,
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: the starting pitching matchup matters a lot In baseball, even
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: though I think it gets over rated, you know what
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, Like, I think it gets factored into the
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: line too much, so you can try to find other
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: edges here. But Philadelphia I used two relief pitchers this city.
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: Their bullpen's not good though Miami used five. That's not
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: very good either. Miami's been struggling out of the bullpen
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: recently too. They're still ranked fifth, but there ERA is
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: on its way up. So I don't really love this
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: Miami bullpen here, although I think they're better than Philly,
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: who are nineteenth, but Miami's not very rested here. Yeah,
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't really want to back Miami's bullpen
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: here necessarily. Miami's ranked tenth offensively, they're still better offensively
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: than Philly, who's twenty third. Philly doesn't hit well on
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: the road either, But like I said, Zach Wheeler is
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: pitching for Philly, and you remember me saying that Philly
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: has a really, really positive record when they have Luzardo
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: Wheeler or Sam Chess pitching, and of course Sanchez pitch
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: last night and they won. They tend to win most
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: games with those guys on the mound. Wheeler has been
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: excellent he's in the Cy Young discussion for sure. Two
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: point one sixty r point eighty eight whip really really good,
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: one point seven to three Rodiray, So he's been even
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: better on the road. There's, you know, nothing really to
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: dislike here. Wheeler has a ridiculous forty three to three
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: strike out walk ratio July in twenty four to two
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: thirds innings, He's striking out almost two guys an inning, Like,
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: you got to be kidding me with those numbers and
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: walking nobody. Yeah, he's just completely shredding right now. He's
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: got a really low hit rate, low walk rate, high
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate as well. Yeah, he's really really good. So
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: I don't really want to fade him here and against Miami,
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: as you could expect, pretty dominant numbers here at sixty
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: one at bats one, sixty four average allowed, four fifty
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: seven oh ps, twenty three to five strike out walk ratio.
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: Like I was just whole being like, oh, because Philadelphia
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: is coming off that game yesterday, I was like, please
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: let it be somebody who's not Wheeler today. But I
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: kind of knew it was going to be a Wheeler
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: because I know he didn't pitch in that Yankee series,
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: so I was like, yeah, he probably is the next
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: guy up, and it is, and Miami's going with Tyler Phillips,
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: who is not very good. Three point five two ey
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: array looks all right, but one point three to nine
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: whip tells you there's something going on here that's not good.
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: Even the wheeler or excuse me, Phillips has actually been
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: way better at home one point four to one home
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: ye ray, So maybe he could pitch okay here. I mean,
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: he's facing a lineup it's not really that good. He's
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: better at home, but he doesn't go deep into games,
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: and there is the possibility the Marlins putt an opener
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: in front of him. So I would just be aware
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: of that that if you're gonna play this game, you
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: might want to play action in some way here. I mean,
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: I'm not recommending playing this game, even though I think
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: it is a spot to maybe fade Philly, but I
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: don't think you could do it with this pitching matchup.
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: Phillips got absolutely destroyed by Phil Phillips versus Philly in Philly,
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: though back in mid June he had a horrible outing
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: in that game at Philly, he was okay against Philly
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: in a short outing early this season at home, though
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to really take away from that.
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: Phillips overall, he does have a pretty low hit rate here.
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: His walk rate is too high though strike up rate
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: is pretty low, so he doesn't really strike guys. I
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: already walks too many guys. That ratio is really not good. Overall,
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: numbers against Philly are not good. In forty five at
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: bats to eighty nine average, nine to twenty eight ops,
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: ten to six strikeout walk ratio. See, I can't come
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: in and back Miami with this huge started pitching mismatch.
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: This is really nothing to like about it and nothing
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: going from them, even though the situation does say Miami
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: here Philly is very public. Ninety four percent of the tickets,
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: ninety percent of the cash they opened minus one to
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: eighty and they're still sitting around minus one seventy. And
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: you know, Philly is gonna be a big favorite with
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: Wheeler on the mound. I mean, the really the price
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: probably is too high, but I just don't really see
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: an angle. We could really come in and put your
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: money on Miami, you know what I mean, even though
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: it looks like some of the professional money is coming
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: in that way, which I think is just because of
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: the situation and because there's some value fading a huge
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: favorite like that, and the total is low, it's at
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: seven and a half. Some of the money is coming
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: in on the over, but with the total that low,
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: the oddsmakers are kind of telling you they think it's
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: gonna be a low scoring game. And that does mean
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: that there's more of a chance that the underdog can
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: actually get the win here. But I'm not gonna do it. Also, Miami,
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: you know, I mean, I'm a contrarian. So I will
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: play to try on teams to try to break streaks,
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean. I'll play against a team
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: on a win streak. I'll play on a team on
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: a losing streak if the situation is right and whatever.
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: But I don't think I want to do it here.
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: And Miami, you know, they are like a falling knife
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: right now. This is not a spot where I really
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: want to try to catch them against Wheelers. So no, thanks, Toronto.
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: At Washington, Washington is staying at home. They've been hot,
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: they've won, they just beat Arizona, they won whatever. This
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: is five of their last seven games staying at home
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: here against Toronto. Toronto has not really been playing well.
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: They're not hitting well. Toronto just lost to the Red
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: Sox yesterday. They're traveling from Boston to Washington, so they
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: have some travel here, whereas Washington does not. Washington does
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: have the worst bullpen here. Washington use a lot of
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: guys out of their bullpen yesterday. Do they use five
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: or whatever that is? So that's not good. Toronto has
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: the better of the two bullpens. They only use three,
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: so Toronto does have a bullpen advantage here. They're fourteenth
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: in bullpen so yeah, I mean they're mediocre. Washington is
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: bad though, twenty six with a bullpenny array above four
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: excuse me, above five? Excuse me? Yeah, not good hitting wise, Washington.
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: Believe it or not, Washington is number one now. They've
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: overtaken the Dodgers in ops. Is the number one offense.
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: I don't know if it's gonna stay that way, but
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: Washington has the way by offense here. Toronto is almost
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: dead last. They're twenty ninth. Cleveland fell behind them again.
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: But yeah, this is a big offensive edge to Washington here.
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: Although I weigh pitching over offense, but the pitching in
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: this game, man it looks bad. Like my first reaction
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: to this was probably an over Max Schurz are still
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: trying to hang on here to you know, to pitching
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: in the majors. I don't think it's gonna go well, man.
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: He has shown no signs that he can still get
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: out there and do it. He's got a ten point
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: two to three ARRA this year, one point seven to
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: three whit he's forty one years old. I mean, he's
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: had a great career. I think he's a World Series
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: winner two if I'm not mistaken, and he's gonna be
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: in the Hall of Fame. But I mean he's gonna
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: have to hang it up, dude. I mean, I don't
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: think he's gonna pitch well here. He is coming off
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: the injured list, and I know I talk about when
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: a veteran pitcher like him comes off the injured list
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: sometimes they will pitch well because they'll be pumped and
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: they'll get out there and pitch better. But I see
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: no signs that he's gonna be able to do that here,
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: even though he does have a three roady array this year,
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: so he's pitched well on the road. It was one
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: start though at Arizona he managed to pitch okay there,
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: but he only had one strikeout in that start, so
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: that's kind of a red flag. Still, Toronto's lost every
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: start of his except his first start of the season,
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: which was at home against Colorado. He's got a high
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: hit rate here, a high walk rate, low strikeout rate.
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: He just looks like he doesn't have it anymore, man,
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: And maybe he'll come out and be a little bit
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: better here after being on the injury list and whatever.
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: I haven't really I haven't looked at what he's done
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: in the miners here in his rehab stuff, but I
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: don't really see many signs that he's gonna do well here.
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: He is going up against his former team. Garrett, Yes,
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: Washing Washington was the World Series. I was thinking of it.
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: I don't remember the Texas one. But okay, he's got
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: he's got two. Then he's washed and playing against Washington here,
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: he's washed a ton against. Washington's current lineup has not
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: been good. They only have five hitters who have faced
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: him thirty four at bats, but it's mostly been recent
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: at bats against him, and they've hit him well two
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: ninety four average, eight forty four ohps. So these Washington
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: hitters have hit Shures or well. I don't think it
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: matters that Shures is going up against his former team
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: here because he hasn't been on Washington for a while,
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: so I don't think that really matters at all. Washington's
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: going with the younger pitcher here, Andrew Alvarez, who doesn't
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: have great numbers four point two to two ERA one
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: point five whip is really not good, and he's not
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: as good on the at home either, four point nine
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: to nine homey Ra. Alvarez has kind of been struggling
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: over his last few starts here. Man, He's walked a
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: lot of guys recently. He's not going deep into these outings.
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: I don't really know if I want to trust him either,
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: even though I think he's more trustworthy than the Shures
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: are at this point. The ceiling with the way with
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: who these pictures currently are, the ceiling is way higher
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: with Alvarez. And the one thing of note, he could
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: strike guys out, so that's a good sign. He's struck
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: out more guys than innings pitch, which is good, but
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: he's allowed more hits than innings pitch as well, and
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: his walk rate is also way too high, so there's
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: there are some things to not like here. The strikeout
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: rate does tell you that Alvarez does have stuff that
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: can fool major league hitters, though he's twenty seven so
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: he's not really that young. He's had to delayed start
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: to his career. Did pitch last year. He actually was
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: good last year and five starts, so keep that in mind.
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: He did actually look fairly good, although his walk rate
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: was yet again high last year, so he's got to
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: find a way to fix that. This matchup might be
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: kind of ideal for him, though, because it's Toronto and
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: they're not a good offense, and they have not seen
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: him before, so he might have a little bit of
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: an advantage there against Toronto because of that. I think
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: Washington might be a way to look here. They're not
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: really laying that much of a price, so like minus
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: one thirty or so here, the line really hasn't moved
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: seventy one percent of tickets eighty seven percent of the
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: cash on Washington. I would do it first five, though,
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: if you're gonna play Washington, I think Washington first five
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: might be the better way to play this, although the
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: price is probably gonna go up if you do it
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: in the first five because everybody knows their bullpen is
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: not good. So you might be looking at maybe even
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: laying a half run with Washington in the first five.
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: But that might be what I would do to play
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: Alvarez to outpitch Surezer here. But this game is a
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: little bit of a there's a lot of unpredictability here, really,
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: and not just a little bit. I think there's a
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: lot of unpredictability here. The total is high attends, the
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: oddsmakers are kind of telling you they think it will
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: be a high scoring game, and the money is backing
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: the over pretty strongly, fifty five percent of tickets on
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: the under, ninety percent of the cash on the over.
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't disagree with that. You know, I think Washington
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: first five might be the best look in this game.
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: But second best, I would say is probably to take
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: the game over the total. Uh. That is the way
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: that I look at that game. Former Team Spot, Yeah,
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: I don't think it mad. I think it only matters
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: when it's like the first time a guy's facing the
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: team that just got of him, and then I think
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: he gets a little bit extra pumped up for it.
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: But this late into his career when he hasn't been
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: on Washington for a long time. He's already faced them,
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: I assume many times since he since he's been on
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: their team, So I don't think it matters at this point.
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: Cleveland and Cincinnati is on ESPN the Battle of Ohio,
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: the interleague rivalry. Here, Cincinnati is in a bad spot.
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: They're one of the only teams returning home from a
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: really long road trip like this today. They went to Colorado, Seattle,
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: and then they were in Saint Louis last so the
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: last leg of the trip isn't that bad. But this
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: is still a bad spot for Cincinnati. Man, it's a
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: return home spot. And you know I talk about teams
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: returning home from long road trips. They can get distracted.
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: It's not good. They have to get back to home life.
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: The one thing maybe keeping them focused here is that
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: Cleveland is one of their rivals and is one of
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: the better teams in the American League if you want
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: to if you want to call them that. So maybe
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati won't be totally unfocused here. But there is one
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: main reason why I'm not gonna be fading Cincinnati here,
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: and you could probably guess what that is, because it's
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: the fact that Cincinnati's best pitcher is on the mound,
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: and I knew that was gonna be the case. Like
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: when I first started handicapping this, I'm like, oh, yeah,
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati's returning home from a road trip, and I'm like,
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: this might be a good spot to play Cleveland. And
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: then I was just in my mind, I was like,
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure Chase Burns is pitching for Cincinnati though,
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: because his name hasn't come up recently, And Yep, sure
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: enough he is. So the starting pitching matchup heavily, I think,
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: well not heavily, but I think it does favor Cincinnati
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: here obviously. I know Cleveland's lost five in a row,
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: so they could be in a bounce back spot. They
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: are having to travel here from Tampa Bay, but they
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: got shut out the last two games against Tampa Bay.
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: This Cleveland offense really really struggling, even though they did
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: get Ramira's back not too long ago. Maybe they'll have
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: a bet they should have a better time here in Cincinnati,
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: and Cincinnati's pitching is significantly worse than Tampa's. I know
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: they have to go against Burns today though, which is
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: obviously not gonna be easy. But they get to face
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: Cincinnati's bullpen as well, So I think just in this
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: series Cleveland should put up some They're not gonna get
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: shut out okay throughout this entire series, and they could
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: be in a bounce back spot after those losses to
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay there, so I think the spot does favorite
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: Cleveland problem is you're gonna have to fade at Chase
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: Burns if you really want to back Cleveland here. I
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: don't really want to do that now. Cleveland's bullpen is
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: very arrested. They've only used two relief pitchers over the
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: last two days. Cleveland has a clear bullpen advantage here,
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: so that does help if you really want to try
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: to play Cleveland here. Yeah, their bullpen is very very
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: clean right now. They only use Holderman for four pitches yesterday,
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: so their bullpen is pretty much saved. Cincinnati's bullpen, on
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: the other hand, is not a good one, and they
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: used four guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Cincinnati is
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: ranked twenty fifth in bullpen Cleveland is fifteenth. Cleveland has
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: any ra that's basically a run better than Cincinnati, So yeah,
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: Cleveland clearly has a bullpen advantage. The hitting is really
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: that much of an advantage for Cincinnati because they haven't
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: really been that good either. Twenty second, although Cleveland is
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: dead last thirtieth, Cleveland's going with Slay Chaconi, and I'm
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: not really sure I want to try to back him
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: because he's not that good. He's obviously significantly worse than
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: Burns four point six ERA one point four or five whip.
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: That's not good. He's not as good on the road either,
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: four point eight to one Roady Ram that would worry me.
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: He was. He's been pretty bad all month. Really. He's
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: not pitching well over his last few starts, although the
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: fielding definitely hurt him in his last start, but he
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: still didn't pitch well anyway, and that's starting against Minnesota.
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: He did actually pitch really well for the most part
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: throughout June. So some things to maybe like about Chaconi here,
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: but he's again July has been bad for him. So
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: he's not a good form here right now. His hit
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: rate is too high, well over one per ending. That's
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: not good. His walk rate is also not really that good.
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: His strike gut rate is low. So the really numbers
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: is not a lot to like here with these numbers,
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: except that he actually does pitch fairly well against Cincinnati. Specifically,
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: they have fifty one at bats against him and they
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: only have a two thirty five average six thirty seven
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: OPS twelve to two strikeout walk ratio. Well, I don't
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: want to back him, and he's not a good form
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: right now. This might be a better matchup for him,
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: So Chaconi might be actually be able to pitch okay here,
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: but he's still nowhere near as good as Chase Burns.
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, I guess perhaps given the matchup here, maybe
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: he'll be able to battle in this game and keep
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: it close enough to get to the bullpens that Burns
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: has been excellent two point four to two ERA, one
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: point one to one whip for Cincinnati here, he's been
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: even better on the at home excuse me slightly, two
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: point three to two home. We are able to below
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: two hundred batting average allowed at home. That's good. His
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: walk rate has been really high recently, though it was
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: really one outing against Philadelphia where he was just out
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: of control and he still didn't really allow that many runs,
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: So I'm not really too worried about that. Although he's
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: been a bit inefficient with his pitches recently, but Burn's overall,
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's got a pretty low hit rate here
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: is walk rate isn't too bad, although if you want
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: to pick at him at all, it's the walks that
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: are really the only issue. If he has one, and
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: his strike got rate is high as well. Burns is
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: good and against Cleveland, he shouldn't really have that much
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: of an issue. Cleveland's never really seen him before either.
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: Only Patrick Bailey has ever faced him, and he's over
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: two with a strikeouts, So Burns has an unfamiliarity edge here,
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: which when you get these talented young pitchers going up
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: against an offense that hasn't seen them before, the pitcher
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: usually has the edge. So Burns should have the advantage there.
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: So I think maybe what you could do in this
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: game is to go under in the first five innings
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: might actually be the best way to play this because
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: Burns should have a he should have a pitching edge
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: here the situation, and he does favor Cleveland. When uh
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: fifty tickets on the over, fifty percent of cash on
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: the over totals at eight and a half, so it
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: looks like the money is kind of indicating a little
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: bit towards the under here. The total hasn't really moved.
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: I would not want to factor Cincinnati's bullpen into that
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: under though, so I think first five under might actually
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: get you there if you try to play it that way,
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: and Cincinnati's offense might be a little bit cooled off
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: by the return home spot and whatever, So maybe that
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: is the better way to look at this game. The
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: money is hitting Cincinnati here seventy four percent of tickets
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: eighty nine percent of the cash on them, which kind
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: of surprises me, even though Burns is obviously the better pitcher.
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: But Cincinnati is in the minus one sixties. The line
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: hasn't really moved that much on the money line here either,
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: But that's a pretty hefty price to land Cincinnati. Given
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: then Chaconi at least has decent matchup numbers here, maybe
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: Cleveland can kind of hang in there. I think if
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: you're gonna try to play Cleveland, you should probably do
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: like a run line in the full game or something
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: like that, like make a plus one run line maybe whatever.
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: You want to do something like that and hope that
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: the game is close once Burns exits, and then maybe
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: you get Cleveland's bullpen. Maybe clear what we can get
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: you there. But I can't bank on that. Man, Like,
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: if I'm gonna play a team, I want like the situation,
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: I want like a decent pitching matchup in the starting
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: pitching as well. So I'm not gonna be able to
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: do that. So yeah, I think first five unders maybe
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: the best approach in that game. But that's not a
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: game I'm gonna be playing. And I know I have
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: two plays. I haven't given either of them out yet.
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: One of them is next it's Atlanta and New York.
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: Garrett is not gonna like what I have to say
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: three days in a row. Not gonna like what I
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: have to say here. Although yesterday I was wrong about
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: Atlanta losing yesterday, but the game before that, I gave
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: about a first five playing Baltimore in at one. While
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: I'm doing it here, I'm gonna give out the Mets
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: in the first five here. On the money line, it's
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: a very small price at minus one oh six. It's
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: almost no different from what the price is on the
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: full game. I'm gonna avoid the bullpens, even though Atlanta
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: did use a decent amount of their bullpen yesterday, but
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: so did the Mets, and Atlanta has the That are
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: the two bullpens. Atlanta used five guys. The Mets use four,
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: but they used for some reason, they used their closer
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: pit like basically Williams and Weaver a kind of their
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: closer duo here, even though I don't think they're really
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: even good and they were the reason why the Yankees
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: bullpen sucked last year because they were both on the Yankees.
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: I'm just gonna avoid the bullpen situation. And yeah, the
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: one warrior here is that the Mets could be in
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: a letdown spot because they just beat the Dodgers yesterday.
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: But on the other hand, they lost the series to
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers. They played actually pretty well in the series
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: against the Dodgers. They lost three games in a row
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: prior to winning yesterday, which they did without Juan Soto.
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: By the way, they are without him today. He's I
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: think he's going on the injured list or whatever. But
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: ending a losing streaks sometimes we'll propel you into the
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: next game. And the Mets are staying at home, and
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's not a team they're gonna overlook, you know what
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: I mean. So I don't think the letdown is going
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: to be completely here because Atlanta is in first place
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: in the NL East, and the Mets are probably gonna
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: pay attention to them, whereas maybe Atlanta won't fully pay
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: attention to the Mets. Here. I mean, Atlanta is on
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: a roll right now. They won four or five, they
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: won six of eight whatever, this is so yeah, I
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: mean they're playing well right now. They just beat Baltimore.
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: I still think the Mets are not exactly as bad
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: as the record makes them look, even though they've sucked.
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: And Atlanta did just lose twice at home to the
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: Mets in a split series they have with them not
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: too long ago. But maybe that could just indicate that
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: maybe the Mets are somewhat competitive against Atlanta. And you
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: know that, I'm looking at the starting pitching matchup here,
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: and that is the main component of this handicap here,
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: which is why I'm going first five only here. As
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: far as the bullpen's, Atlanta is still number one and whip,
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: although they're number three in bullpen era behind Red Sox
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: and Yankees. Mets are a good bullpen, the ranked eighth,
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: but they haven't been quite as good recently, and I'm
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: gonna I don't think they have an advantage in the
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: bullpen at the very least, so I'm gonna factor them
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: out of this equation. Atlanta does have the better offense obviously,
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: the ranked eighth, and they've been pretty good on the
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: road the Mets twenty eighth, So I get that we're
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: playing the worst offense here, but in handicapping, you gotta
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: do it, man, because the public always overrates the offense.
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: So a lot of times you can play on the
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: teams that have the better deepfense or the better pitching,
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: and you'll get wins that way. And that's what I'm
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: gonna do here. We're gonna fade Martin Perez, who's pitching
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: for Atlanta. I know he's had a solid season three
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: point three eighty RA, one point two whip. I mean,
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: credit to him. He's still in the majors at thirty five.
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: He's not a velocity guy, so he pitches with his
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: command and whatever he does pitch well. But there's some
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: negatives here as well. He's got a four point one
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: to five roady ram, so he's not as good on
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: the road, and the walks are really becoming a question
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: for him here. Multiple walks in five starts in a row,
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: and he's not really going that deep into a lot
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: of these outings. That's kind of a problem. Even in
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: his four inning shutout last time I Gonna get San Diego,
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: he still walked four guys. I don't think that's a
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: good sign, man. And he did face the Mets not
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: too long ago twice. Actually, he faced them two starts
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: ago in Atlanta in early July, and he was horrible
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: on that start. He gave up four and runs four
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: and a third innings, two walks, one strikeout, six hits.
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: So he does not appear to be in good form
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: at all right now. He did do better against the
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: Mets here in New York back in mid June, but
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: still don't really go that deep into that outing. Overall,
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: his hit rate is low, so that's pretty good for him,
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: but his walk rate is pretty high at this point,
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: as he probably could have guessed. And he doesn't strike
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: anybody out, which is not really part of his game.
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, aside from him being hard to hit,
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: he's putting a lot of guys on base via the walk, man,
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: and it's specifically against the Mets, who just saw him
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: and did well against him. He does not have good
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: numbers against the Mets either. They have one hundred and
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: twenty five at bats against them, so they've seen a
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: lot of them, and they have a three or four average.
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: And this of course is excluding so though ESPN takes
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: the guys that are on the injured list out, so
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: this is with Soto. They have a three or four
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: average against him, eight thirty five ops, eighteen to fifteen
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. The five of the walks are Lindor.
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: But still, you got a lot of guys in this
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: lineup that hit him well, Bobaschett, Lindor, all the usual guys.
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: Kind of Luis Robert, who I think I'm getting these
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: guys confused. I'm like, wait, which one is which? There
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: are a couple of guys that have similar names here
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: and Marcus Semion. Those guys all have really good numbers
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: against Perez, So I think he might not do too
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: well here. And we're gonna back Zach Thornton while I
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: think he's still under the radar here. Thornton has been
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: really good so far. He's a really young guy. He's
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: twenty four. He's only made four starts in his major
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: league career, so I know at some point maybe hitters
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: are gonna start figuring him out a little bit, and
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: these numbers are unsustainable, but he's still pretty good. All
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: we need is for him to outpitch Perez here. He's
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: got a one point nine three RA point eighty six whip.
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: He's been really good at home a point six point
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: ninety RA, although I know it's a small sample. It's
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: two starts at home against Philly and against the Red Sox.
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: He went deep into both those outings, pitched really well.
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: His only bad outing was his first one against Washington,
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: and since then he's been good against Philly, Boston, and
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: then a good sign that he pitched well against Milwaukee
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: on the road. Didn't really strike many guys out there,
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: but he shut Milwaukee out. So he's only allowed one
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: run in his last nineteen innings of work. He's pitching well, dude.
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: I still think he's under the raidar, and I'm mad
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: at I didn't give out a play on the Mets
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: last time, because I liked them in the first five
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: against Milwaukee there, and that would have been a winner.
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: They won the full game there. His overall numbers here
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: low hit rate, pretty low walk rate, his strike gout
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: rate not really that high, so he doesn't really strike
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: guys out He's not you know, he's not really a
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: power pitcher, and you can kind of tell based on
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: the fact that he's very slender at six three and
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: one seventy, but he is tall and he is able
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: to get guys out here, and it looks like he's
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: pitching well. And of course you know that Atlanta's never
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: seen him before, so that's an edge for Thornton. Again,
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: when you get these young, talented pictures going up against
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: an offense that hasn't faced them before, it's an extra
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: advantage to the starting pitcher a lot of times. So
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: I will back the Mets in the first five here.
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: The money isn't really indicating that way, but it is
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: kind of indicating that Atlanta's public seventy three percent of
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: tickets seventy seven percent of the cash on them. The
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: line has kind of flipped well, I mean, it started
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: out as kind of a pickum price, and now Atlanta
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: is a little bit of a heavier favorite than that,
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: at like minus one eighteen or so, So the money
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: is kind of moved towards Atlanta a little bit. But
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: I think the public is coming in on Atlanta here. Man,
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: there's no way the public is playing the Mets here, right,
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: Like you're looking at a team like Atlanta with a
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: way better record, with a pitcher who looks pretty good
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: on the mound. The public's not going to take the
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: Mets here, even after what they did yesterday. So yeah,
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: I will back the Mets in the first five here.
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: The money's also backing the over in this game a
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: little bit here at over eight and a half. I
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: don't have a good read on the total, but I
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: don't know if I like that. This seems like they're
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: probably more indicators towards an under than an over in
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: this game, at least for me, but which also kind
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: of helps if you're gonna try to play an underdog
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: here though, with the Mets, we're playing the underdog, but
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: it's with juice, of course, because the books always charge
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: your juice. So even though the Mets are an underdog,
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: you're getting a slight you know, minus price there on
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: the money line, all right, And the other game I'm
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: going to give out is actually a really similar price.
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: What are we at here? For time? We're at fifteen minutes.
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: I know we only have twelve games here instead of
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: the usual sixteen. Usually I take a break and come
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: back and then finish it off with the five games.
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: Let me do that. I'll be right back. Yep. Inside,
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: I want to kill myself. We're on OWN seven run
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: over the last two days after tonight it was just
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: complete bullshit. So that's that's how I'm gonna start off
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: this show. Horrible Sunday one and five. I don't even
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: know what to tell you about that. I just don't
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: want to do this anymore. I have never seen anything
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: not a good day at all. OWN four that have
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: not had a good season. Man with bookends slump that
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached a new peak. Actually,
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: I'm going to burn my Bruins hat.
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: March eight, Is that what it is? I don't even
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: know it's March ninth. I think who even knows? Man,
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: I don't know what data is anymore. But I don't
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: even know what data is anymore. Man's back with you
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: after the worst day that I could possibly have, Back
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: with you as I always am until I die. At
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: least oh and two yesterday and yesterday. It did not
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: go well for me. Own five, the worst month that
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: Tools slump, The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: other than potentially ended off. All right. The next game
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: is Yankees and White Sox. Here. This looks like a
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: pretty big pitching mismatch in favor of the Yankees here,
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: although you have to pay a bit of a price
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: for it. Maybe it's uh, maybe the price isn't that bad.
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: I don't know. The White Sox were able to get
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: the win to avoid getting swept. Yesterday. They destroyed Houston.
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: I think it was Murakami bobblehead day, and he was
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: really good yesterday. I think he had like two of
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: them runs and six RBI's or something on his bobblehead day. Whatever.
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: The White Sox destroyed Houston twelve to three yesterday. The
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: Yankees are coming in from playing the night game, so
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: the White Sox are staying at home, while the Yankees
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: are having to travel from Philadelphia with less time because
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: they had to play in the night game, So it's
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: a bit of a negative as far as less rest
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: plus travel for the Yankees here. But they did get
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: destroyed in that game eleven to four, so the Yankees
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: did not do well. They were definitely at a pitching
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: disadvantage in that game against Christopher Sanchez, and the Yankees
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: were about the biggest underdog that you'll ever see them be.
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: Could be a bounced back spot for the Yankees, though,
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: because a lot of times when a team doesn't do
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: well on a public stage like that, a lot of
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: times they will bounce back and do better. Maybe the
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: case here. Again, they're gonna have a pretty big pitching
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: edge really throughout this entire game. The Yankees do have
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: a good bullpen. These three guys out of the bullpen
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: didn't really use any of their better relievers yesterday though
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: because they got killed in the game. So their bullpen
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: is in decent shape here coming into this one. The
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: White Socks bullpen has been okay, but they use a
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: lot of guys. They used five guys yesterday even though
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: they had a blowout win. Two. Yankees are number three
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: in bullpen whip, number two in era behind the Red Sox.
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: They're doing well here. The White Sox are eighteenth but
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: a decent bullpen, but Yankees have the better bullpen and
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: the better rest scenario. Here. Yankees are ninth in offense
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: and the White Sox are eleventh, tied with Houston and Minnesota,
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: so two pretty capable offenses here. Yankees a little bit better,
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: although the Yankees not quite as good on the road
• 53:24
  Speaker 2: and still without Aaron Judge. I'm pretty sure Yankees, though,
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: they are going with Max Freed in this game, and
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: he is one of their best starters. He's had some injuries,
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: but he is back right now and he looked good
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: after he came back. He's looked good so far, so
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: two point nine to seven e ra point nine six
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: whip is really good. He's been better on the road
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: as well, two point two to three roady array, so
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: that looks like it sets up well for him. He
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: had one start since coming back from injuring. It was
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: against a pretty good Pittsburgh offense in New York and
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: he shut them out for five innings and he was
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: very efficient. He only threw fifty seven pitches, so he's
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: not overworked here. They're kind of I'm assuming they're gonna
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: build up his pitch count. They're probably gonna have him
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: go about eighty pitches this time. I would imagine if
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: he's pitching well, which you know, maybe is an if,
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: but I think they're gonna ramp him up. He looks
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: like he's probably good to go here after that start
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: looked pretty good in his first start back. He's got
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: a low hit rate. His walk rate is a little
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: bit high though, so a little bit of a concern there.
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: And his strikeout rate is kind of mediocre. I mean,
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: he's not really a huge strikeout pitcher. Numbers against the
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: White Socks are kind of mediocre. In twenty nine at
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: bats to seventy six averages a little bit high, six
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: sixty seven ops not too bad though, seven to two
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio. Really it's just green check that really
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: does most of the damage against him. Though. I don't
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: know if Ben and Tendy is hurt now or something,
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: because Ben and Tendy is almost always listed in this
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: lineup card here, you know what I mean. It's being
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: one of the guys that he's a long timer, so
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: he's faced all these pictures, so that might mean he's
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: hurt right now. Somebody to keep an eye on with
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: the White Sox, but yeah, I mean I would lean
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: towards Freed pitching well here, and the White Socks are
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: going with Noah Schultz, very very young pitcher who I
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: think might have some talent, but he's definitely struggled through
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: his rookie season here, really really struggling with the walks.
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: He's got a six point four ERA one point four
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: to six whip not good, although he is better at
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: home at least four point seventy four home HERA, so
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: he's potentially a guy you could back at home, but
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: he's been pretty bad for most of his recent starts here.
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: Last start at Texas was very bad. He was very hitable,
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: which is not a good sign because his issue really
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: has mostly been the walks. Like over the course of
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: this season hasn't really been that hittable. The walks have
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: been a major problem, and then the strikeout rate is
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: just kind of okay. He's got to fix his control issues, man,
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: That's the thing. He's a really tall left hander, and
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: I think if he can fix the walks, I think
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: he will be a decent pitcher. We will see him. Mean,
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: it seems like maybe the White Sox rushed him up
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: a little bit because he's only twenty two, so he
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: is pretty young. But I do think he has some
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: good like drop to some of his pitches, even though
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: he doesn't throw that hard, but he's got some like Uh,
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: I think he's got like a really nasty like sinker
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: with movement on or something like that. And I believe
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: Actually I don't know if the Yankees have faced him
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: or not. Let me say no, they have not, so
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: I guess he has that advantage that he's unfamiliar to
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: the Yankees. I don't know if that's gonna be enough.
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna probably slightly have to lean to the Yankees
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: here just I think they have the matchup edge throughout
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: this game, although I worry a little bit about the
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: having less time off and whatever. And you do have
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: to lay a price minus one forty something here, minus
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: one fifty something even uh, if it gets past minus
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: one fifty, I say you want to go towards like
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: making a minus one run line on it, which at
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: least if you do that, at least the Yankees will
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: bat in the ninth inning guaranteed, uh, seventy seven percent
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: of tickets, ninety one percent of the cash on the Yankees,
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: and the line has moved up a little bit on them.
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: It opened closer to like minus one forty, so it
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: has gone up a little bit, and the money's back
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: in the un or eight or eight and a half,
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: which I don't know if i'd want to get involved
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: in that. I could see the argument for it, right,
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: Like you have two decent bullpens here or decent or good.
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: Both starters might actually be able to do okay here,
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: So the under. I mean, there's no way the public's
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: playing the under here because they think Yankees, White Sox,
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: both of these teams look like, yeah, there's gonna be
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: a lot of hitting going on in this game. Maybe
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: not so maybe I wouldn't really disagree with the under,
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: but I still think the Yankees making like a minus
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: one run line is probably the better approach in that game.
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: Definitely not gonna be a play for me, though, And
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: I do still worry about the Yankees quick turnaround time
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: and whatever Cubs in Saint Louis. I gotta see if
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis has actually decided on a starter here. Looks
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: like they still have not. Saint Louis is listed as undecided.
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: It was gonna be Libratrre, and I don't know if
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: they're pushing him back or what they're doing here. The
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: Cubs are coming in from losing to Pittsburgh yesterday they
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: won the series, though they're traveling into Saint Louis now
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: from Pittsburgh. Saint Louis is staying at home after losing
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: to Cincinnati, so it might be a better spot for
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis here, staying at home and maybe in a
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: bounce back spot. You know, Saint Louis is not a
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: very good team in my opinion, but they might have
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: a little bit of an extra motivational edge here because
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: they're gonna want to beat the Cubs because the Cubs
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: are ahead of them in the division and whatever. So
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis might be the slightly more motivated team here.
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis used a lot of relief pitchers yesterday, though
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: they use five, and they are definitely at a bullpen
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: disadvantage anyway. The Cubs use three, but the Cubs have
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen anyway, they're erased back below four. At least.
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: Cubs are ranked thirteenth right now in bullpen Saint Louis
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: is twenty second, so Cubs definitely have a bullpen advantage.
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: They also are the better hitting team by a significant margin.
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: They're fourth and the Cardinals are twenty fifth, so the
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: Cubs have a big, big hitting edge here. However, the
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: Cubs are going with David Peterson, and I know we
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: tried to fade him in his last start and he
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: actually pitched well, but I I'm not sold. I don't
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: think Peterson's any good. I know he changed teams, he
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: went from the Mets to the Cubs. Maybe he's gonna
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: pitch with more effort because he's on an actual contending
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: team now, But I don't think Peterson is a good
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: pitcher man five point nine to seven ERA, one point
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: five to six whip not good, although he's been better
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: as a road pitcher combined with the Mets and the
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: Cubs this year four point four to three road ERA,
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: so you gotta give him that he's better on the road.
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: He was good in his last start prior to start
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: to that, he walked too many guys against Baltimore even
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: though he held them kind of off the board. Though
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: he was terrible in his one home start, which guess
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: who that was against. It was against Saint Louis. So
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: his worst start by far since joining the Cubs was
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: against the Saint Louis team. He gave up ten runs
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: and three to two thirds innings, all of them earned. Yeah,
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: that's not good. Although it was at home or for
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: whatever reason, he pitches worse both with the Mets and
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: the Cubs. He's been awful at home. He's got a
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: really high hit rate, so that's not good. His walk
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: rate is also too high, strike up rate is not great.
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: So yeah, there's not a lot to like for me
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: about Peterson here. And you pretty much know his numbers
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: are not going to be good against Saint Louis. They
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: are not good at all. Uh in forty three at bats,
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: four nineteen batting average, eleven seventy seven OPS, eight to
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: five strike up walk ratio. Yeah, there's no way I'd
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: recommend backing Peterson here. I know some of that came
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: in that one start where he got shelled by them,
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: but it's more than just that. So I don't like
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: Peterson in this matchup Saint Louis. I don't know if
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: they're going with LIBRATORI now or not. We can handicap
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: him because he was the schedule pitcher. I wish it
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: wasn't him, because I think Saint Louis would have a
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: better chance to get this thing done if they had another,
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: if they had a better pitcher on the mound. Libra
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: Torre has not been good. A five point one eighty
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: one point five to two whip that's not good. He
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: is a little bit better at home four point six
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: to two. Homie Ra is still not very good though,
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: hasn't really been that good recently, although I guess his
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: command numbers have been okay recently. Deze's strike out walk ratio,
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: but he's getting hit kind of hard. He's allowing some
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: runs here, that's not very good. He did pitch against
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: the Cubs in Wrigling not too long ago, and he
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: was okay in that start. He was at least better
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: than Peterson was in that series. Libratory high hit rate
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: on the season, though that's not good. His walk rate
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: isn't really that good. His strike up rate is okay,
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: but yeah, he's not really a trustworthy pitcher against the Cubs.
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: He actually does have okay numbers here in eighty seven
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: at bats two forty one average, allowed seven to thirteen ops,
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: twenty to twelve strike out walk ratio. That's a bad ratio.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: The rest of the numbers are okay, don't know if
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: he's actually gonna pitch or not. The other thing I
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: will point out is that Peterson might have an opener
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: in front of him, because the Cubs have done that
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: before at least once, I think, and Peterson seems to
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: pitch and the Mets did it too. I think he
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: pitches better with an opener in front of him, so
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: the Cubs might do that. So just keep that in
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: mind that I think, if you're gonna play this game,
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: should just play at action because it will be Peterson
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: whether he starts or he comes in behind an opener.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: For Saint Louis, you don't even know who they're gonna
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: pitch here, So I think if you really want an
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: opinion on this game, I mean, my original instinct was
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: that I kind of like Saint Louis. Cubs are a favorite,
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: and minus one twenty something here they dropped a little
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: bit from the opener, which was also in the minus
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: one twenties. They look public eighty percent of the tickets,
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: eighty seven percent of the cash on them though, But
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: there's no way, again, no way I would back David
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 2: Peterson here, absolutely not so, especially as a favorite on
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: the road, even though he is better on the road,
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: but as a road favorite, just ridiculous. No, uh, so
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: I would slightly lean towards Saint Louis. We don't know
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: who's pitching for them, though, so I think maybe the
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: better way to attack this game is to just play
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: the over sixty percent of tickets, ninety four percent of
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: the cash on the over. Don't know who's pitching, but
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: I mean, I guess Saint Louis could put somebody out
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: there who's better than Lebratorial, though his matchup numbers against
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: the Cubs are actually not that bad. But for Saint Louis,
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: I don't know what they're gonna do. It's probably not
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: gonna be anybody better. I mean, who's gonna pitch tomorrow
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: for them? McGreevy, I mean McGreevy has been better this season,
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: although he's a guy that the advanced analytics guys are
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: just waiting for him to regress, although I'm not sure
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: that he's gonna really regress in like that dramatic of
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: a fashion. But yeah, I mean, I think over nine
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: and a half maybe the way to look at this game,
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: just not knowing much more and just taking it action.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: Or you know, if you want to take the mystery
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: of Saint Louis's pitching out completely, you could take Saint
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: Louis over their team total, Like just take Saint Louis
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: to score against Peterson. I mean, I think they should
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: be able to do that, So maybe that's an approach
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 2: in that game as well. You'll need them to score
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: a lot though, if you're gonna take them over their
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: team total. Well, they're an underdog though, so you actually
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: probably will. They'll probably need to get to five runs
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: for you if you do that, which is I guess
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: that's reasonable. So maybe that's a potential way to attack
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: that one, dirty sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: all right? Next game is gonna be my other play
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: that I have here Houston and Anaheim. Yeah, let's do it.
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: This is another first five playing. Like I said, with
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: the Mets, I should have been playing first fives. Of
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: course I'm gonna lose bolt these now. I should have
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: been playing first fives with Anaheim and the Mets before,
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: with the same starting pitcher on the mound, and I
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: didn't do it. But we're gonna do it here. Anaheim
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: first five decent price on this. It mightus want to wait.
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: And obviously I'm gonna exclude their bullpen because their bullpen sucks,
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: so I don't want anything to do with that. But
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: we're gonna back Walbert Urania here. And just like I
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: said with the Mets back in Thornton, I'm kind of
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: pissed because if we backed each of these starters in
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: the first five in their last start, which I had
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: a fairly strongly you know, on both of those, we
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: would have won both of those games. Now that being said,
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: we're gonna lose both games today probably, But I kind
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: of like this. The Angels just broke a three game
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: losing streak with a win over the Giants yesterday. They're
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: returning home, yes, but I'm not that worried about that
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: because they're staying in California. I know it's north to south,
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: but whatever. I mean, that was a single series road trip,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: so I don't worry about that as much. It's not
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: like returning home from a long road trip or a
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: bunch of stuff piled up at home that you have
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: to do. And I think Anaheim might have a little
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: bit of an extra edge because they're at least still
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: staying on the Pacific coast here, where's Houston is having
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: to travel in from the Central time zone. And they
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: just lost a wind streak. They just lost a five
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 2: game win streak to the White Sox yesterday. And by
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: losing to the White Sox yesterday, I think when a
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: team loses the wind streak like that, it can hang
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: them over into the next game because it's like that
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: momentum just completely stops. So I think that's a negative. Plus.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: They're gonna have to go from Central time zone to
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: the Pacific time zone, so they do have to travel
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: two time zones west here, which Anaheim doesn't have to do.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: Anaheim is staying in the same time zone. I like
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: fading these teams that have to go out west to
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: start like a trip or whatever, because it can mess
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: with their biological clock. They're gonna be playing, you know,
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: based on the fact they're used to the Central time zone.
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: They'll be playing whatever, like two hours later than they
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: would be otherwise, right, so they'll be playing at least until,
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: you know whatever, eleven PM their times, so their biological
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: clocks might start getting tired. You know, it'll be late
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: in the night for them, so I think that's a
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 2: bit of an extra negative on top of the loss
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: of a wind streak there. I like to start your
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: pitching as well, which I'm gonna get into in a second.
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: I don't like Anaheim's bullpen, so I'm keeping them out here.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: Houston used three relief pitchers. Anaheim used five yesterday, so yeah,
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: Anaheim's definitely at a bullpen disadvantage. They're twenty first, Houston
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: is twenty ath then bullpen, but Anaheim is the worst
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: of the two in my opinion. Well, and the stats
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: just back that up. Houston is eleventh in offense, tie
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: with the White Sox. They are the better offense here.
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: Anaheim is twenty third, tied with the Phillies. And Anaheim
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: doesn't hit well at home, but I think they should
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: be able to get something done against Tatsuya Emi, who's
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: pitching for Houston here, And of course this isn't loading.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's struggling in his first season in the majors.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: He's had a couple of starts, so he's had some
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: really high strikeout numbers, but he's overall not been very good.
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: Five point five to ninety ray one point four to
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: seven whip that's not good. He is better on the
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: road four point three to three Roady Ray, and he's
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: kind of tough to hit. And he did pitch okay
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: in his last start against Miami, but he was struggling.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: The two starts prior to that were both bad against
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: Washington Minnesota, and he did have two good starts prior
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: to that. He's kind of alternating two good starts too
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: bad starts, which if that was the case, he would
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: have a good start here, but I don't really think
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: that's gonna happen. He did pitch once against Anaheim early
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: in the season. He didn't do well. It was at home, though,
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: but he didn't make out of the third inning. He
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: had some real struggles in that one. And while he's
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: been difficult to hit on the season, his walk rate
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: is ridiculously high. He's having major, major walk issues. Though
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 2: he does strike out a lot of guys, so he
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: does have some talent here, but his wildness is insane,
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: so I don't really think that's a good thing. And
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: with that start against Anaheim, I know Anheim, it's not
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: a huge sample at all. They only have six guys
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: who faced him seven at bats, but they did a
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: good amount of damage against him. Four twenty nine average,
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: twelve awaight o ps, three to four strike at walk ratio.
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 2: Those are not good numbers for Emi here, and I
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: know it was his first start of his major league career,
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: so you could argue he was shaky for that reason,
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: but he hasn't really gotten that much better as you
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: can see so and now Anaheim's at least familiar with
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: him sort of, although it's been months since they've seen him.
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: But I think they should be able to do something often,
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: whereas I've been way more impressed with what Urania has
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: been able to do. Walbert for the Angels here two
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: point seven to eighty are rail, though I know his
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 2: whip isn't really that good at one point three to one,
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: so really his RA should probably be about a run
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: higher than it is, but he is still pitching pretty impressively.
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: His RRA at home is a little bit worse at
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: two point nine to two, but his opponent batting average
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: is below two hundred at home, and he's for the
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: most for most of the season, He's pitched really well
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: at home, so I like that, and he was able
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: to do that last time out against Saint Louis. He
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 2: had a really good home start, which was one where
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: I gave out a lean on Anaheim in the first
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: five and that one and that would have been an
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: easy winner. I should have put it on my card.
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: He was walking too many guys in the two starts
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: prior to that, but those were both on the road,
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: So it was a nice bounce back from him against
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis, and he got his walk right back down.
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: You look at what he's done over the course of
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: the season, it's been mostly good. He's got a low
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: hit rate. His walk rate is too high though, so
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: both these starting pitchers, they got to get this command fixed.
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: He's got a decent strikeout rate, not as good as Emi,
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: but Urania gets a lot of ground balls and he's
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: just he's had more continued success this season than Emi has.
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: Urania did actually face Houston twice early in the season,
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: and I don't know what we can really gather from
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: this because he gave up six runs in an inning
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: in the second appearance against Houston, but every one of
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: the runs was unearned, So like, I don't know, what
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 2: do you do with that information. I mean, it's really
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: hard to gauge anything from that. He actually did have
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: a full start against Houston more recently in June, and
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: he struggled with the walks in that one, but he
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: shut them out for five innings, so he was inefficient
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 2: with his pitches. But you know, I mean, it wasn't
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: that bad of a start, even though I know I
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 2: don't like the walks, but I prefer him over Emi here,
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 2: and his overall numbers against Houston just come out looking
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 2: way better. In twenty two at bats, they only have
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: one extra base he hit a double from Walker. Literally,
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: only two Houston hitters even have a hit off him.
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: Alvarezm Walker each have two hits, and nobody else in
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: the lineup has a hit. They have a one eighty
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: two average against him six oh seven ops eight seven
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: strike out walk ratio. I realized that's not good, but
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: the rest of these numbers are pretty good. I think Urina,
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: at least for right now, is considerably better than Emi.
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: So I think there's an advantage here taking Anaheim in
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: the first five. The money seems like it agrees with this.
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: Houston is a public road favorite here at around minus
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 2: one to eighteen. That line hasn't really moved much eighty
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: one percent of tickets and only seventy three percent of
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: the cash on them. So we're backing the market read
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 2: here at least as long as it stays this way
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 2: throughout the day and then evening. We're we're gonna be
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 2: with the market on that one, and we're only slightly
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 2: against what the market is saying with the Mets play,
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: So whatever Anaheim first five, that's my other play of
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: the day. We have two more games here. The Red
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: Sox have to go to the A's here, and you know,
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: I don't like when teams again have to travel for
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: that first time to the West coast. It's not really
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 2: a good spot. So the Red Sox are going from
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 2: a long home stand and they've been hot. They've won
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: seventeen of their last twenty games or something like that.
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox have been on fire. But and starting
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: to row trip is usually a positive with some momentum here.
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 2: But the problem is they're having to travel three time
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 2: zones west, so they're gonna be finishing the finishing this
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: game like midnight East Coast time. That might not be
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 2: good for their biological clock. So I don't love that.
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 2: And if you want the Red Sox here, you're gonna
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 2: have to lay a huge price because the A's get
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 2: massively disrespected in the market. Now, the good thing for
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox, or the bad thing for the A's,
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 2: is that the A's are returning home from a road
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: trip and they're having to travel across two time zones
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: because they went to Arizona then Minnesota, so they're coming
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 2: back from the Central time zone. So they're gonna be
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: in a similar spot where they do have to adjust
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: to the West Coast time again as well. So both
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: teams do have to do that, although it's more extreme
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: for the Red Sox, but the A's are in an
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: extra negative because they're returning home from a road trip.
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: And you know I talk about when teams are turning
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: on from road trips, it can be a distracted spot.
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: You gotta get back to family life, home life. So
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 2: that could be a problem for the A's here. So
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 2: not necessarily a good spot for the A's as far
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: as the chings concerned, the Red Sox have the way
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: better bullpen. The Red Sox did use four relief pitchers
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 2: yesterday though, but they didn't use any on Saturday because
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 2: they think they backed up Sonny Gray with Bao, so
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: actually no, Beao didn't. What did they do then they
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: didn't use Bao? I don't know what they did, but anyway,
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox their bullpen is decently rested here in
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 2: the A's bullpen is trash. I know they only use
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 2: morales yesterday to kind of save their bullpen, but their
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: bullpen is not even worth saving. The Red Sox are
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: number two in bullpen and they're number one in bullpen
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: e Ray. The A's are last in bullpeny Ray and
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: their ranked twenty eight out of thirty and whip. But
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 2: we have the best Bullpenny Ray against the worst right
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 2: now Red Sox versus A's. Offensively, the A's are the
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 2: better team. Their fourteenth Red Sox have been slowly kind
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 2: of moving up in that department at twenty first, and
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox offense might be able to do something
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: here because they're playing in a very hitter friendly park.
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox will be getting Curtis Mead, I think
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: starting tonight, as they did make that trade Connolly early.
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 2: They traded for Curtis Mead, so I think he will
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 2: be in the line up here tonight. Potentially it seems
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 2: like I thought the Red Sox are gonna move Durban,
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: but I guess they're gonna have Mead play second base.
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: It looks like can keep Durbin at third. Whatever they do.
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: Hopefully the guys just can hit and hopefully they field well.
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: As far as I'm concerned, Red Sox is going with
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 2: Peyton Toley here, and it looks like it's a big
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 2: pitching mismatch on the surface, but I'm not sure it's
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 2: quite that much. I think the Red Sox do have
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: the better starting pitcher here, but I don't think it's
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: by as much of a margin as maybe it looks.
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: Totally's been good though a three point three to one
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: ERA one point one whip. He's been even better on
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: the road two point eight three ROADIRA with a really
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: low one eighty eight opponent batting average. Now, maybe some
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: concerns he with Totally, though he's pitching well. Struggled a
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: little last time against Baltimore. They were able to kind
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 2: of hit him, but he had a lot of strikeouts,
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: so his strikeout raider has been really good recently. He's
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: got a high strikeout rate on the season, a low
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: hit rate. His walk rate is o his problem with
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 2: pitching in this stadium, he is he is a fly
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: ball pitcher. He gives up like twice as many flyballs
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: as ground ball, so that is kind of an issue.
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: But it hasn't really translated into him allowing a ton
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: of home runs though, so maybe he'll be able to
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: still pitch okay here, especially with the amount of strikeouts
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: that he racks up. But I don't know. The flyball
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 2: rate is always a little bit of a concern when
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: you're gonna pitch in a stadium like this. Although he's
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 2: generally been good this season, he is pitching well right now,
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: and the A's don't have much experience against him. They
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 2: have ten at bats against him, five hitters have faced
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: and two hundred batting average seven hundred ohps against him,
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 2: two strikeouts, no walks, one extra base hit. There is
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: a home run from Nick Kurtz in there, but totally
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: has generally been pretty good against them, and they're somewhat
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: unfamiliar with him still. And Longo Laers, who there was
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: some discussion that the Red Sox might trade for Longo Laiers. Well,
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 2: he might miss the rest of the season now for
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: the A's, so he's gone down to an injury. So yeah,
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 2: good thing the Red Sox didn't trade for him Jack Perkins,
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 2: although if I guess if they did, he might not
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: have played in that game where he got injured. Jack Perkins,
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 2: especially for the A's. His numbers don't look good and
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: he's a young guy right now. But I do think
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: he has some talent. As I pointed out, he has
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 2: a six point seven to five y Ray though one
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: point four to Whip obviously that's not good. He does
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: struggle in this a stadium with a seven point four
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: to one Homieah Ray, so that's not good. He's been
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: pretty mediocre recently, so totally has the better numbers and
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: is in the better form right now. The A's have
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 2: lost six starts in a row of Perkins, of lost
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 2: eight of nine or eight of nine of his appearances,
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: at least, I don't know if they were all starts. Perkins,
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 2: he's been a bit too hit a ble, his hit
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: rates too highs walk rate is slightly high, I would say,
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: and his strike out rate is high. So that's the
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: one thing I keep kind of pointing at is that Perkins.
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's that bad. I don't think he's
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: quite as bad as he looks. That strike out rate
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 2: does tell you can fool guys. But like totally, he
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 2: does have a lot of fly balls, so he's a
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: fly ball pitcher as well. But it's translated into more
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 2: home runs allowed by Perkins. His home run rate is higher,
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: So pitching in this stadium has been worse for Perkins.
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean it's probably a worse thing for
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 2: Perkins that it is for Totally. And he's allowed five
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: home runs in his last three starts. That's you know,
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 2: it's not good. Red Sox have never faced him before, though,
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: so he does have that advantage where he will be
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 2: facing an offense that hasn't seen him before. The Red
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: Sox a very heavily public side here, obviously because they're
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: extremely hot right now and they're a big name team
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 2: and the public does not want anything to do with
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 2: the A's because the A's have been playing bad baseball recently.
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 2: Red Sox are up from minus one nine to like
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: minus one seventy something. I think maybe there was a
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: pitching change, because usually the line is not going to
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 2: move that much unless there's a pitching change usually, but
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox are very public ninety two percent of
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 2: the tickets eighty eight percent of the cash on them.
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 2: It's all about the price, I think. I mean, the
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 2: spot still seems to me like it's a little bit
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 2: better for the Red Sox, and they should have the
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: better pitching throughout this game. They should win. But you know,
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, the market reads it's difficult. Man. Again. I
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 2: know a lot of it has to do with the price,
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: but yeah, the price is probably too high on the
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 2: Red Sox here in the minus one seventies. I don't
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: think you can lay that with them on the road.
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 2: I mean, do I really want to come in and
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: try to play like a run line with the A's here?
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 2: I don't think so. And I think if we're gonna
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 2: try to play the A's at all, I think you
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: have to limit it to the first five because the
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: Red Sox do have the better bullpen here. So I
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 2: don't know, there isn't really I don't know. I don't
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: really see a great angle of attack in this one.
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: And the money's also back in the over nine and
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 2: a half here. Nine and a half is a somewhat
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 2: low total for an A's home game, though, so there
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 2: is some respect in the market for both starters here really,
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 2: given that the total is not really that high, do
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 2: with all that information what you want, man, but that's
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: not a game I want any involvement. And then we
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 2: have Milwaukee and San Francisco. San Francisco's staying at home.
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: They did just lose to Anaheim yesterday. They're still not
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: playing well though Milwaukee is still the better team. Milwaukee
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: having a good season. Hear Milwaukee coming in from blowing
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: out Colorado yesterday, which I believe was a Jacob Mizerowski game. Yesterday.
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee is starting a road trip here, which does mean
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: they have to go to the West coast, and you
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: know it's another Central time zone team going out west,
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: so sometimes those teams could struggle having to adjust to
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: the time zone in that first game, and it could
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 2: be late and you know, mess with their biological clocks.
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: So not great for Milwaukee. And they're also not rolling
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 2: out one of their better starters in this game either.
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee's bullpen is the better one. Although they used five
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: guys out of the bullpen yesterday, didn't use their closer mcguil,
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: but they did use five guys. They're still the better bullpen.
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 2: San Francisco struggled out of the bullpen, and then they
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 2: only used Houser out of the bullpen. He's a long relief,
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: you know, slash spot starter guys. So the rest edge
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 2: does go to San Francisco in the bullpen, but Milwaukee
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: still has the better bullpen. They ranked tenth. I think
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: they're fourth in bullpenny ray right now. They're a good bullpen.
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 2: San Francisco not so much at twenty third, and their
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 2: ERA is almost a run worse. So even though the
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: rest advantage will close that gap a little bit, I
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: still think Milwaukee has a bullpen edge here. Milwaukee is
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: the better offense as well. They ranked six, the Giants
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 2: are fifteenth, and I still am not sold on the
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: Giants offense. And this is a more pitcher friendly park here.
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee's going with Brandon Sprout, who I think he's at
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 2: least better than his RA makes him look five point
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 2: zero nine ERA one point three to eight. Whip kind
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 2: of is more in line with than ERA being in
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 2: like the fours, and that is what he's done. On
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 2: the road. He has a four point three road he ray,
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: so he is better on the road. He's struggling though
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: in the month of July eleven and nine strikeout walk
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 2: ratio and eleven and two thirds innings hasn't gone more
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 2: than four and two thirds in any of these outings.
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: That's not good. Uh So he's walking too many guys.
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 2: He's struggling through these outings right now. Man. He's he
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 2: does have a pretty low hit rate on the season,
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: but his walk rate is very high. His strikeout rate
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: is high too though, so like I said, he does
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: actually have some talent and he has some ability to
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 2: fool hitters at this level, but he's given up a
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 2: lot of home runs and the walk rate is just
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: way too high, so that he's got to at least
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: fix his command issues here against San Francisco. They've never
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 2: seen him before, so he does have a little bit
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 2: of an unfamiliarity edge here potentially because he's facing a
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 2: lot of it hasn't faced him, so maybe he will
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 2: pitch okay again. He's at least in the better of
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 2: his home road splits here and has unfamiliarity. Tyler Molly
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: is pitching for the Giants. He's not having a good
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 2: season five point three to one ERA, one point four
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 2: or five whip. However, he's been way better at home,
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 2: so Giants. You know, at least he's taking advantage of
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: the Giants having a pitcher friendly park. He has extreme
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 2: home road splitzer. He's way better at home. His heras
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: three at home compared to eight point oh five on
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 2: the road, and he has a two to en batting
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: average at home allowed in seat of three forty, which
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 2: is what it is on the road. So it's like
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 2: he's a completely different pitcher at home. So he's way
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 2: better at home. He's pitched well in his last couple ourtings.
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 2: He was good actually on the road against Kansas City
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 2: last time out, good enough at least, well, not good
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 2: enough because they still didn't win, but it wasn't really
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: his fault. So yeah, he's pitching a little bit better
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 2: right now. He's still not a great pitcher, but at
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 2: least he is significantly better at home. Still has a
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 2: high hit rate on the season, a fairly high walk rate.
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 2: His strike out rate is just kind of mediocre. But yeah,
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 2: at least he's in the much better of his home
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 2: road splitz. Here he's going up against the Brewers, who
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 2: are a good offense, but they actually haven't had success
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 2: against him. They only have six guys who have faced
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 2: him twenty five at bats. They only have one extra
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 2: base hit, though at double from William Contreres. Not to
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: be confused with Wilson Contreras of the Red Sox. At
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 2: least they're not in the same division anymore. Eleven strike
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 2: outs five walks here, that's not a good ratio, but
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: three of the walks are Yellick, and he's held him
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 2: to a two hundred average and five seventy three oh ps,
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 2: So Molly does actually have good numbers here against Milwaukee.
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 2: I think maybe under in this game, maybe a first
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 2: five under, so you avoid San Francisco's boltmen because they're
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 2: not really that good. The money's back in the over,
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: but I think maybe a first five under is the
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 2: better way to look at this. Seventy six percent of tickets,
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 2: ninety three percent of the cash on the over, the
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 2: totals eight and a half for the full game. Probably
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 2: looking at four four and a half in the first five.
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 2: Both pitchers might actually be better than you would think, right,
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 2: because they both have five plus eras, right, So nobody's
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: gonna want to play an under here. But when you
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 2: dig into the numbers a little bit, they're both in
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 2: the better of their home road splits, and they both
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 2: might actually have a decent matchup, so that could be
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 2: kind of a sneaky way to play this game is
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 2: the first five under and you know you're in a
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 2: picture friendly ballpark here. At least Milwaukee is a very
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 2: public side eighty eight percent of tickets, ninety two percent
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 2: of the cash on them. But I don't think i'd
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 2: try to play Milwaukee here. They're about minus one thirty
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 2: something here, up from minus one twenty six. You can
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 2: make the argument for San Francisco in the first five,
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 2: at least, with Molly at least being a little bit
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 2: more established and having actual matchup numbers here that actually
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 2: look okay and the more extreme home road splits in
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 2: his favor. So maybe you could look towards San Francisco
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 2: as an underdog in the first five. But yeah, I mean,
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: that's a game I don't really want anything to do with.
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 2: And that's gonna do it. Man. The two players today
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 2: are both first five players on the Mets money line
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 2: and on the Anaheim money line Angels first five only
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 2: pretty cheap price on both of those. I like the
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 2: starting pitching matchuphen both were backing two still very unheralded
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 2: young pitchers here. Let's get it done. And then I
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: considered Seattle money line in the afternoon game. That would
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 2: probably be my next strongest opinion. It would be Seattle.
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 2: I don't really want to lay that type of price
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 2: on the road though, with some of the numbers not
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 2: really lining up the way that I like them. So
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 2: that's gonna do it. Learn a tone on Twitter, and
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 2: learn it tone on Instagram, like, subscribe to this channel here.
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 2: Let's get on the trajectory towards a thousand. Man, we
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: won't get there for another five years. Let's have dude.
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 2: I don't know if we can somehow blow this thing
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: up and get some sort of viral run here. I
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: don't know though, because I'm just people don't like it
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 2: because it's just me, you know, just being autistic about
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 2: everything here. But I don't know if you want the
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 2: betting information, I mean, hopefully it's good for some be able,
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 2: helpful I don't know. I don't know what else to say.
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 2: We're on audio, Apple, Spotify, Speaker. You can check it
• 1:25:31
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• 1:25:35
  Speaker 2: on YouTube. Check that out, Patreon dot com, sash and
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 2: learn a toe if you want to support me that way,
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 2: Hopefully my voice could be back in better form. I
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 2: need to. My voice needs to be a better form,
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 2: and then maybe I can actually do something something better.
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: Some of the requests that I have Loser cast Tomorrow
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 2: night every Tuesday night, and the New York Giants ge spot.
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: I guess it's still gonna be a thing that's gonna
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 2: do it. I appreciate it. Everybody. Let's have another winning
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 2: day here on a nice little run right now. Hopefully
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 2: it means you're heating up again. We want to go
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 2: too and oh here. If we go one and warmer,
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be a slight loss, so though at least
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 2: I don't know would be acceptable. But the goal is
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 2: to go too and oh and have a winning day.
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 2: So let's try to do that. Peace.
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: If the docs docks talking, hand me the phone, that's somebody,
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: and so let somebody know you do not.
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 2: Have to.
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: Lose this round. Hold on, hold on nothing nice not no,
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 1: hold on, hold on. Let me pull you out that
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: bad luck by time, but it don't get the crown.
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 1: Hold on, hold.
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 2: On, stay with me, now, hold on, hold you're still
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 2: here now