Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / Are Bad Actors Using Prediction Markets to MANIPULATE Reality?!

Transcript

Are Bad Actors Using Prediction Markets to MANIPULATE Reality?! · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  They're using prediction markets to manipulate election outcomes.
• 0:05
  I hear that claim all the time.
• 0:06
  Is there any truth to it?
• 0:07
  Would it even work?
• 0:08
  We'll dive into that.
• 0:09
  We have Vivek Ramaswamy getting a lot of heat for his controversial ad campaign.
• 0:13
  I've noticed there's not as much
• 0:15
  concern about the Lindsey Graham slash Darlene Graham Nordone attack ads,
• 0:19
  uh,
• 0:20
  so we'll get into that.
• 0:21
  And,
• 0:21
  uh,
• 0:21
  what happens when the sports industry
• 0:23
  collides with the prediction market industry?
• 0:25
  Everyone gets angry all the time,
• 0:27
  and usually,
• 0:28
  uh,
• 0:28
  Sydney Sweeney takes her clothes off.
• 0:30
  All of that and more coming up on Predictable
• 0:32
  with Stu.
• 0:47
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:50
  Big show for you today.
• 0:51
  We have a lot coming up and a lot of important stuff you need to know.
• 0:55
  And
• 0:56
  there's a reason for that.
• 0:56
  We're very close to the election.
• 0:58
  Now,
• 0:58
  I wanna tell you,
• 0:59
  I would love for you to go to the YouTube page.
• 1:01
  We're on YouTube,
• 1:01
  Youtube.com/atpredictableshow.
• 1:04
  We'll be doing an election live stream there.
• 1:05
  Uh,
• 1:06
  we looked at some stat the other day that's something like 70% of
• 1:08
  the people who watch the show are not subscribed to the channel,
• 1:11
  so.
• 1:11
  You know,
• 1:12
  it helps us grow.
• 1:12
  If you subscribe to the channel,
• 1:13
  it helps more people see this sort of content.
• 1:15
  If you want us to be able to kind of provide,
• 1:17
  I think what we're providing already,
• 1:18
  which is a really good
• 1:19
  package of benefits and,
• 1:20
  and insight into the prediction market industry,
• 1:22
  but we can grow that.
• 1:23
  We're trying to grow it,
• 1:24
  and we are.
• 1:25
  It's just we'd like to do it faster.
• 1:26
  So if the more people that see this stuff,
• 1:28
  the faster we can bring you those benefits.
• 1:29
  So,
• 1:30
  go to the YouTube page,
• 1:31
  subscribe to the channel,
• 1:32
  go to the podcast,
• 1:33
  wherever you get your podcast,
• 1:34
  subscribe there.
• 1:36
  Uh,
• 1:36
  I appreciate if you do those things.
• 1:37
  And,
• 1:37
  you know,
• 1:38
  most of them are free.
• 1:39
  You can go to predictableshow.com.
• 1:40
  That's,
• 1:41
  uh,
• 1:41
  free for most of it,
• 1:42
  but there's also a subscriber layer as well.
• 1:44
  One of the things that's there on the subscriber level
• 1:47
  is something called Stu's Picks,
• 1:49
  which is every single prediction market position that I hold.
• 1:52
  There's over 350 of them last time I checked.
• 1:55
  Uh,
• 1:55
  I just update it,
• 1:56
  so I don't always count them.
• 1:58
  Uh,
• 1:58
  but whenever I go through a week,
• 1:59
  and usually once a week,
• 2:00
  I'll just update that list.
• 2:02
  We are in election season though,
• 2:04
  so I'm gonna try to up that,
• 2:06
  update that more often.
• 2:07
  We're gonna,
• 2:08
  like,
• 2:08
  anytime I add anything,
• 2:09
  I'm just gonna get that to you on this.
• 2:11
  So this is a new sort of feature we're adding,
• 2:12
  at least for the next week,
• 2:14
  where I'm gonna try to update these basically in real time.
• 2:17
  When I add a position,
• 2:18
  you'll be able to see where I'm going,
• 2:20
  what I'm thinking.
• 2:20
  Am I shrinking a position?
• 2:21
  Am I making a position larger?
• 2:23
  We have all that information for you.
• 2:25
  It is part of our premium tier.
• 2:26
  If you're a trader,
• 2:27
  it's gonna be well worth your money.
• 2:29
  Um,
• 2:29
  if you just really like the show,
• 2:30
  you really are interested in prediction markets,
• 2:32
  I also think it'll be worth your money.
• 2:33
  Um,
• 2:34
  if you're just a person who just likes
• 2:36
  watching overweight white person talk on television,
• 2:40
  it's probably still worth your money.
• 2:41
  So,
• 2:41
  any of those categories,
• 2:43
  it's great.
• 2:43
  Uh,
• 2:43
  predictableShow.com.
• 2:45
  Become a premium subscriber.
• 2:46
  Tons of people are,
• 2:47
  are signing up.
• 2:47
  We're really close to the election,
• 2:48
  so just join us.
• 2:49
  It's,
• 2:49
  it's a great place to be.
• 2:51
  And we do have a massive live stream happening on election night.
• 2:53
  Uh,
• 2:54
  so,
• 2:54
  you know,
• 2:54
  this is the place you wanna,
• 2:55
  wanna come for great
• 2:57
  election coverage as,
• 2:58
  as it ties into prediction markets.
• 3:00
  We will be talking about every race.
• 3:02
  A lot of the ones that,
• 3:03
  you know,
• 3:04
  maybe the bigger,
• 3:05
  you know,
• 3:05
  like,
• 3:05
  uh,
• 3:05
  streams or,
• 3:06
  uh,
• 3:07
  cable news channels aren't talking about because,
• 3:09
  you know,
• 3:09
  you might
• 3:10
  say there's not a lot of,
• 3:11
  uh,
• 3:11
  interest in some of the races,
• 3:12
  but if we can find interest,
• 3:14
  if we can find prediction market value,
• 3:15
  we'll be talking about them,
• 3:17
  and I will be live trading,
• 3:18
  uh,
• 3:19
  right on the air with you,
• 3:20
  so.
• 3:21
  You'll be able to see everything that we're doing,
• 3:22
  we'll be talking about it the whole time.
• 3:24
  Why do I bring all that up?
• 3:25
  Well,
• 3:26
  we're 7 days from the elections.
• 3:27
  It's beyond panic day.
• 3:29
  Yes,
• 3:30
  1 week until the midterms are here,
• 3:33
  and then,
• 3:34
  uh,
• 3:34
  we have to get a big live stream.
• 3:36
  We're gonna be covering everything that night.
• 3:38
  And the country's gonna change in one way or another.
• 3:41
  We will see how that goes.
• 3:43
  Early voting is already happening in 43 states.
• 3:45
  I think we get up to the max here in a couple of days.
• 3:47
  I think there's 46 total that wind up doing it,
• 3:50
  something like that,
• 3:50
  45,
• 3:51
  46.
• 3:52
  So
• 3:52
  there's a lot of stuff going on there and,
• 3:54
  you know,
• 3:55
  people are tense.
• 3:57
  People
• 3:58
  are on the edge a little bit.
• 3:59
  I've noticed this.
• 4:00
  I've noticed it on social media.
• 4:02
  I've noticed it in real life.
• 4:03
  People are,
• 4:03
  you know,
• 4:03
  freaked out.
• 4:04
  They want their side to win.
• 4:06
  You have the kind of dueling different things from
• 4:08
  each side where Republicans are generally speaking like,
• 4:11
  holy crap,
• 4:11
  is this gonna get really ugly for us?
• 4:12
  Like,
• 4:13
  are we gonna lose the Senate?
• 4:14
  Or is it gonna be,
• 4:15
  what about Supreme Court justices?
• 4:17
  If that happens,
• 4:18
  like,
• 4:18
  I'm,
• 4:18
  you know,
• 4:19
  we're not gonna be getting any bills passed.
• 4:21
  There's sort of that panic of like,
• 4:23
  wait a minute,
• 4:23
  the media says this stuff all the time,
• 4:24
  but is it real this time?
• 4:26
  And then on the other side,
• 4:28
  the Democrats have the
• 4:30
  holy crap,
• 4:32
  we,
• 4:32
  we were saying and being really cocky about how we were gonna win all this time,
• 4:35
  now that we're a week away,
• 4:36
  are we gonna somehow blow this again?
• 4:39
  They are panicked for a totally different reason.
• 4:41
  So everyone's freaked out,
• 4:43
  and that makes it,
• 4:44
  uh,
• 4:44
  wonderful.
• 4:45
  I,
• 4:45
  I think all of our interactions this time of year
• 4:48
  with other human beings are really positive because nobody's insane.
• 4:52
  Nobody's stressed out,
• 4:52
  nobody's nerves are frazzled to the degree
• 4:56
  that we've never seen before.
• 4:57
  Uh,
• 4:58
  actually,
• 4:58
  it's kind of how it is all the time,
• 4:59
  I feel like right now.
• 5:01
  And I noticed this on social media,
• 5:03
  and I noticed it because I,
• 5:04
  I post
• 5:05
  prediction market,
• 5:06
  uh,
• 5:06
  content.
• 5:07
  It's what I do for a living,
• 5:08
  you know,
• 5:08
  I,
• 5:09
  I talk about prediction markets,
• 5:10
  I talk about politics,
• 5:11
  and when I do that,
• 5:13
  people get angry.
• 5:14
  There's some weird anger going on against,
• 5:16
  uh,
• 5:16
  prediction markets,
• 5:17
  which I don't
• 5:18
  fully understand.
• 5:19
  Um,
• 5:20
  you know,
• 5:21
  there's always anger against something new,
• 5:22
  uh,
• 5:22
  and prediction markets are new.
• 5:24
  So I think that's part of it.
• 5:25
  But also like there's just this tie,
• 5:27
  this belief that these things are really bad for society.
• 5:29
  I went through all of this,
• 5:30
  uh,
• 5:31
  uh,
• 5:31
  you know,
• 5:31
  a good chunk of this argument last night.
• 5:33
  On the program,
• 5:34
  which I just don't see it that way at all.
• 5:36
  In fact,
• 5:36
  especially if you're someone who's,
• 5:37
  you know,
• 5:37
  gone through
• 5:38
  the battles,
• 5:39
  the trials and tribulations of having like only 3 channels
• 5:42
  and trying to get your message,
• 5:44
  uh,
• 5:44
  to be treated fairly or your ideas to be treated fairly,
• 5:47
  we saw that grand expansion
• 5:49
  of,
• 5:50
  uh,
• 5:50
  of media,
• 5:51
  and I think it was a good thing to push back against
• 5:54
  that sort of centralized control of
• 5:57
  what was acceptable opinion,
• 5:58
  right?
• 5:59
  That has expanded quite a bit.
• 6:01
  Um,
• 6:01
  you know,
• 6:01
  with that,
• 6:02
  of course,
• 6:02
  has,
• 6:03
  there's some bumps in that road as well,
• 6:04
  um,
• 6:05
  where you have,
• 6:06
  uh,
• 6:06
  some partisan interests taking over and everything else,
• 6:08
  and,
• 6:08
  and prediction markets do a great job of cutting through all
• 6:10
  that because people gotta put their money where their mouth is.
• 6:12
  People don't tend to take BS positions when they're putting currency next to them.
• 6:17
  That's just the reality of the situation,
• 6:19
  and it's why prediction markets
• 6:21
  have done so well
• 6:22
  predicting,
• 6:23
  uh,
• 6:23
  outcomes.
• 6:23
  Now,
• 6:26
  That doesn't mean everybody's convinced.
• 6:28
  If you're here,
• 6:29
  you're probably early on this bandwagon.
• 6:31
  You're probably understanding this a lot more than the people around you,
• 6:34
  your friends,
• 6:34
  your frenemies,
• 6:35
  your enemies.
• 6:36
  And so I wanted to go through a couple of these arguments that I see all the time.
• 6:40
  One in particular,
• 6:41
  which is really important about,
• 6:42
  uh,
• 6:43
  elections in particular.
• 6:44
  Uh,
• 6:45
  first of all,
• 6:45
  there was this claim,
• 6:46
  uh,
• 6:46
  prediction.
• 6:46
  I,
• 6:46
  I took the names out of these cause I don't,
• 6:48
  I,
• 6:48
  I don't wanna get some random,
• 6:49
  uh,
• 6:49
  person on social media flamed for this stuff.
• 6:51
  I'm just giving you their points.
• 6:53
  Prediction markets are useless.
• 6:54
  They don't predict anything.
• 6:55
  They are one step below odds at the track.
• 6:57
  Now.
• 6:59
  First of all,
• 7:00
  odds at the track,
• 7:01
  uh,
• 7:01
  uh,
• 7:01
  you know,
• 7:02
  there's a reason why,
• 7:03
  you know,
• 7:03
  the
• 7:04
  institutions that set odds
• 7:06
  tend to make money
• 7:07
  because they set them in very accurate ways,
• 7:09
  actually.
• 7:09
  They're difficult to beat.
• 7:10
  That's why people lose at sports gambling a lot,
• 7:13
  uh,
• 7:13
  because the odds set by the house are usually very difficult to beat,
• 7:16
  and they have nice spreads and
• 7:18
  whatever.
• 7:18
  So I don't know that odds are,
• 7:20
  uh,
• 7:20
  by the track are necessarily the bad thing to be compared to.
• 7:23
  But when you say they're useless,
• 7:25
  like,
• 7:25
  we,
• 7:25
  we went through a lot of this data yesterday,
• 7:27
  there's been a ton of studies that show,
• 7:29
  uh,
• 7:29
  exactly what
• 7:30
  these prediction markets do
• 7:32
  and do well,
• 7:33
  which is they are
• 7:34
  basically,
• 7:35
  I mean,
• 7:36
  almost near perfect calibration
• 7:38
  to reality.
• 7:39
  If a prediction market says there's a 70% chance of something happening.
• 7:42
  Um,
• 7:43
  that means,
• 7:44
  just so we're aware,
• 7:44
  cause I posted a poll on this and I got kind of shocking results.
• 7:48
  Um,
• 7:49
  so we're clear.
• 7:50
  If something,
• 7:50
  if a prediction market says a 70% favorite,
• 7:53
  that means that candidate
• 7:55
  should lose,
• 7:56
  if he ran that race a zillion times,
• 7:57
  should lose 30% of the time.
• 7:59
  Anything marked as a 70% favorite
• 8:01
  should lose about 30% of the time.
• 8:03
  Anything marked as a 30% underdog
• 8:06
  should win about 30% of the time.
• 8:08
  That's how these odds work.
• 8:09
  So,
• 8:10
  when you understand that.
• 8:12
  You,
• 8:12
  you could understand what calibration means,
• 8:14
  which is,
• 8:14
  if someone says there's only a 10% chance of that happening,
• 8:17
  that doesn't mean it never happens.
• 8:19
  That doesn't mean
• 8:20
  it's the craziest thing in the world.
• 8:22
  Like we all,
• 8:23
  you know,
• 8:23
  mocked the Francesca Hong primary because it was a,
• 8:26
  you know,
• 8:26
  prediction markets,
• 8:27
  um,
• 8:28
  you know,
• 8:28
  I,
• 8:28
  I,
• 8:28
  I was on them.
• 8:29
  I lost some money on Francesca Hong,
• 8:31
  she was at 95%.
• 8:32
  I started buying her
• 8:34
  a little bit when she dropped to 80% cause I still thought she was gonna win.
• 8:37
  She almost did,
• 8:38
  but she lost.
• 8:40
  And
• 8:41
  everyone was like,
• 8:41
  oh gosh,
• 8:42
  what a failure for prediction markets.
• 8:43
  No,
• 8:44
  a 95% favorite should lose 5% of the time.
• 8:48
  If
• 8:48
  a 95% favorite does not lose ever,
• 8:51
  then the markets are broken.
• 8:55
  This has been shown over millions of contracts.
• 8:59
  I know you saw one graph on Twitter.
• 9:02
  I get it.
• 9:03
  And I get how that impacted you in some way.
• 9:06
  But the truth of the matter is when you look at this over a long period of time,
• 9:08
  over millions of contracts,
• 9:10
  over,
• 9:10
  over dozens of years.
• 9:12
  Uh,
• 9:12
  you know,
• 9:13
  when you break it down by all the different exchanges,
• 9:15
  what you find.
• 9:17
  Is that these prediction markets do a better job at this
• 9:20
  type of thing than any other tool that we have.
• 9:23
  Now that mark,
• 9:24
  that argument we kind of dealt with yesterday in more detail,
• 9:26
  if you wanna go back and watch that,
• 9:28
  you could.
• 9:28
  We also have this one,
• 9:29
  and I get this one
• 9:31
  pretty much anytime I post anything about prediction markets.
• 9:33
  It's a,
• 9:33
  this is a version of,
• 9:34
  this is a quote,
• 9:35
  uh,
• 9:36
  but,
• 9:36
  uh,
• 9:36
  you know,
• 9:37
  you,
• 9:37
  you get the sense.
• 9:37
  The market is garbage.
• 9:41
  First of all,
• 9:42
  I want a t-shirt that says,
• 9:44
  the markets is garbage.
• 9:45
  We were just building our merch store the other day.
• 9:48
  This might need to be one of them,
• 9:49
  in just this font,
• 9:51
  the markets is garbage with no period.
• 9:54
  I want that shirt.
• 9:55
  I don't know if anyone else would ever buy it,
• 9:56
  but I would wear it around.
• 9:57
  The markets
• 9:58
  is garbage.
• 10:00
  He says $5000 can change the markets by up to 30%.
• 10:06
  It's the market manipulation argument.
• 10:08
  And the,
• 10:08
  the,
• 10:09
  the,
• 10:09
  the thought of it goes like this,
• 10:10
  and then there's some sense to,
• 10:12
  you could see this happening.
• 10:13
  Obviously,
• 10:13
  prediction markets are being talked about more and more in our society.
• 10:16
  They're being in their own news channels and everything else.
• 10:18
  People talk about them.
• 10:19
  And if you could spend
• 10:21
  $5000
• 10:22
  to move a market by 30 points,
• 10:24
  it's possible one of those news networks would say,
• 10:26
  wait a minute,
• 10:27
  uh,
• 10:27
  gosh,
• 10:27
  this,
• 10:27
  this candidate is spiking,
• 10:29
  right?
• 10:30
  Um,
• 10:30
  and if that happens,
• 10:32
  maybe that will,
• 10:32
  uh,
• 10:33
  mean that people will start supporting that candidate.
• 10:36
  Maybe they will think that candidate has a better chance to win.
• 10:39
  They'll get more excited about it.
• 10:40
  Maybe they'll think their candidate has a bigger chance to lose,
• 10:43
  and they'll be so depressed by that information
• 10:45
  that they will not go to the polls at all,
• 10:47
  and it manufactures,
• 10:48
  uh,
• 10:49
  a,
• 10:49
  uh,
• 10:49
  a major problem in our electoral system.
• 10:51
  That's kind of
• 10:53
  the thought process behind it.
• 10:54
  I wanna kind of go through this step by step,
• 10:56
  because I don't,
• 10:57
  I don't think people
• 10:59
  fully understand and grasp
• 11:02
  how difficult that would be to do.
• 11:05
  How,
• 11:06
  uh,
• 11:07
  silly it would be to attempt,
• 11:09
  how expensive it would be
• 11:10
  to maintain.
• 11:12
  And frankly,
• 11:13
  I don't know that it would lead to any results whatsoever at the end of the day anyway.
• 11:17
  So,
• 11:18
  let me go through this a little bit.
• 11:20
  The bottom line is,
• 11:21
  anybody can go into one of these markets if you're not insider trading,
• 11:24
  and you can legally buy shares.
• 11:25
  If you are just a supporter of a candidate,
• 11:27
  let's say you support uh James Tallarico,
• 11:29
  and you're like,
• 11:30
  I just want James Tallarico to have a bigger number.
• 11:33
  Uh,
• 11:33
  than he has in these prediction markets because,
• 11:35
  frankly,
• 11:36
  I don't even care if I win my,
• 11:37
  my,
• 11:37
  uh,
• 11:38
  my position or not.
• 11:38
  I just want
• 11:39
  to show,
• 11:40
  I wanna manipulate these markets.
• 11:42
  I wanna change these markets.
• 11:43
  I wanna say,
• 11:43
  look,
• 11:44
  these markets,
• 11:45
  uh,
• 11:45
  are gonna show Tallarico now as an 80% favorite,
• 11:48
  and everyone's gonna think,
• 11:49
  uh,
• 11:49
  he's on,
• 11:50
  on,
• 11:50
  on,
• 11:50
  on,
• 11:51
  uh,
• 11:51
  winning,
• 11:52
  and they're gonna get on the bandwagon and Tallarico is gonna actually win in Texas.
• 11:55
  OK,
• 11:55
  so,
• 11:56
  there's your theory.
• 11:59
  Moving a candidate from,
• 12:00
  I think we're Talarico is in the mid-60s to 80%,
• 12:03
  let's say,
• 12:04
  um,
• 12:05
  would be very,
• 12:05
  very expensive to do.
• 12:07
  Um,
• 12:08
  and in fact,
• 12:08
  we don't have to guess at these numbers,
• 12:10
  um.
• 12:11
  We can look at the markets.
• 12:13
  Do we have the Tallarico market ready?
• 12:15
  Here's the James Tallarico versus Ken Paxton market.
• 12:17
  You see
• 12:18
  what,
• 12:18
  uh,
• 12:19
  uh,
• 12:19
  what the,
• 12:19
  the history of this race is.
• 12:21
  Uh,
• 12:21
  Paxton heavy favorite,
• 12:23
  75% all the way up to the beginning of this year,
• 12:25
  started falling.
• 12:26
  It became a close race.
• 12:27
  In 2026,
• 12:28
  uh,
• 12:29
  beat him a 50/50 race in,
• 12:31
  let's say August
• 12:32
  and then has moved towards Tallarico.
• 12:34
  Now he's at 66% and I can't remember,
• 12:36
  I think this was the race we were talking about
• 12:37
  when we were talking about market manipulation because,
• 12:39
  you know,
• 12:39
  Tallarico's popped and honestly his polls
• 12:42
  aren't that great.
• 12:44
  Uh,
• 12:44
  Tarico's polls are,
• 12:45
  he's up by a couple of points over Paxson.
• 12:47
  Paxson,
• 12:47
  I would say,
• 12:48
  has narrowed the gap slightly recently,
• 12:50
  but you see,
• 12:50
  Tallarico percentage is up.
• 12:51
  So,
• 12:52
  why,
• 12:52
  what does that mean?
• 12:53
  Well,
• 12:53
  if you scroll down a little bit here,
• 12:55
  um,
• 12:55
  you can see exactly
• 12:56
  how much it would take to move these markets from mid-60s to 80s.
• 13:00
  If you click on James Tallarico's name there,
• 13:02
  we will get the order book.
• 13:03
  Order book is a really key thing.
• 13:04
  One of our predictable 101
• 13:06
  videos is handling that.
• 13:07
  That's coming out soon.
• 13:08
  Um,
• 13:08
  but you should always buy in the,
• 13:09
  in the,
• 13:10
  uh,
• 13:10
  in,
• 13:10
  in these,
• 13:11
  uh.
• 13:11
  Uh,
• 13:12
  when you're buying in these markets,
• 13:13
  use the order book.
• 13:13
  If you don't know how to use it,
• 13:14
  you can look at predictable one on one very soon,
• 13:16
  and,
• 13:16
  and we've got a whole video on it.
• 13:17
  OK.
• 13:18
  So
• 13:19
  What these things are showing are the available shares at different prices.
• 13:23
  So right now,
• 13:24
  you could buy
• 13:25
  455,000 shares
• 13:28
  and change at 66 cents
• 13:30
  uh for James Tallarico.
• 13:32
  If you bought all the,
• 13:33
  the,
• 13:33
  the cost of that would be $300,000
• 13:35
  OK?
• 13:36
  So,
• 13:36
  for $300,000 you could move this market.
• 13:38
  You could,
• 13:39
  you could do it right now,
• 13:40
  in the comfort of your own home.
• 13:41
  You could move it from $6600 to 67 cents,
• 13:44
  OK?
• 13:44
  You could wipe out every share at 66 cents,
• 13:47
  you go to $67 and then that number that says 66 now would change to 67.
• 13:52
  Now,
• 13:52
  if you wanted to move it all the way to 80 cents,
• 13:56
  To pick a number,
• 13:57
  let's scroll up to 80 cents for a second here.
• 13:59
  You'd have to buy the 700,000 shares at
• 14:01
  uh 67 cents and all these,
• 14:03
  all the way up.
• 14:05
  To get to 80 cents,
• 14:06
  that would run you $1.3 million.
• 14:10
  Now,
• 14:11
  you might say,
• 14:12
  well,
• 14:12
  $1.3 million is a lot of money for me,
• 14:14
  sure,
• 14:14
  but there's billionaires out there,
• 14:16
  you got the Elon Musks and the George Soroses,
• 14:18
  and you got all these people that $1.3 million means nothing to them.
• 14:21
  They could do this.
• 14:22
  And the truth is,
• 14:24
  In theory,
• 14:26
  You're right.
• 14:27
  Someone could spend $1.3 million and buy this up to 80 cents.
• 14:32
  So that number that you see that says 66 cents
• 14:34
  right there would all of a sudden show 80 cents.
• 14:36
  And then people would be saying,
• 14:37
  oh gosh,
• 14:38
  James Tallaricos spiking,
• 14:39
  right?
• 14:40
  Yeah,
• 14:41
  not so fast.
• 14:43
  The problem here is,
• 14:44
  if you could do this,
• 14:45
  it would briefly push it up to 80 cents.
• 14:48
  But the market has an idea,
• 14:50
  right?
• 14:51
  The market
• 14:52
  has an idea as to
• 14:54
  what these prices should be.
• 14:56
  They think right now it should be 66 cents.
• 14:57
  That's what the market has decided right now.
• 15:00
  So what you would have
• 15:01
  are people who would come into the market,
• 15:03
  and all of a sudden say,
• 15:04
  well,
• 15:04
  wait a minute.
• 15:06
  That Tallarico price is too high.
• 15:09
  Now,
• 15:09
  Ken Paxton is underpriced.
• 15:11
  He should be at 35 cents.
• 15:13
  I'm gonna start buying at 20 cents.
• 15:16
  And people would start putting pressure on the market
• 15:18
  to bring that number from 80 for Tallarico,
• 15:21
  back to 66,
• 15:23
  right?
• 15:24
  They would say,
• 15:24
  well,
• 15:24
  wait a minute,
• 15:25
  there's all these people out there,
• 15:26
  and here's how I know there are these people out there.
• 15:28
  I am one of them.
• 15:30
  If I saw that go up to 80 cents right now,
• 15:32
  I would load up on Ken Paxton shares.
• 15:35
  Because,
• 15:36
  and I,
• 15:37
  and look,
• 15:37
  I don't have,
• 15:38
  you know,
• 15:38
  the,
• 15:38
  the,
• 15:39
  uh,
• 15:39
  financial,
• 15:40
  financial picture to,
• 15:41
  uh,
• 15:41
  to push these markets around,
• 15:43
  but I would be,
• 15:44
  and I have done this,
• 15:45
  when I've seen markets that I think
• 15:46
  come too low,
• 15:48
  I would absolutely load up and I would keep loading up,
• 15:50
  and you know who else would do it?
• 15:51
  Giant institutions with billions of dollars
• 15:54
  on their table.
• 15:55
  They would look at this and say,
• 15:55
  well,
• 15:56
  wait a minute,
• 15:56
  this is,
• 15:56
  this price is wrong.
• 15:57
  This market has moved in some strange error.
• 16:00
  And we're gonna go up and load up on these shares until it came
• 16:03
  back from 80 to 67 or 66 or 65 or whatever it is.
• 16:08
  So,
• 16:08
  you now,
• 16:09
  as this rich person who's put a million dollars into this already.
• 16:13
  would have to sit there and defend
• 16:15
  that position at 80 cents.
• 16:17
  You would have to buy up all these shares and keep putting more and more,
• 16:20
  millions and millions and millions of dollars more
• 16:24
  onto the market to defend that 80 cents position.
• 16:27
  Now,
• 16:28
  you might be able to do it for some time.
• 16:31
  I don't know how long.
• 16:32
  If you want to put $100 million on there,
• 16:34
  you might be able to do it for a little while,
• 16:36
  right?
• 16:37
  But eventually,
• 16:38
  the price pressure would come back to where the markets believe
• 16:41
  it should be.
• 16:43
  There would be a violation
• 16:44
  of
• 16:45
  what the market of the market efficiency,
• 16:47
  and that would be a major problem.
• 16:48
  Maintaining that battle would cost you millions of dollars.
• 16:52
  Now,
• 16:53
  the problem with this also is,
• 16:55
  let's say you did that on Calci.
• 16:58
  There's another big issue here,
• 16:59
  which is,
• 17:00
  there are other prediction markets that have the same contract.
• 17:03
  When they get way out of whack like that,
• 17:05
  what happens?
• 17:06
  People start
• 17:07
  trading across platforms
• 17:10
  to bring those prices back down to reality.
• 17:12
  So people who are like,
• 17:13
  well,
• 17:13
  wait a minute,
• 17:13
  I can buy
• 17:15
  shares of
• 17:16
  a Ken Paxton at 20 cents right now,
• 17:18
  and then I can sell shares of Ken Paxton on the other exchange for 36 cents.
• 17:23
  Right?
• 17:24
  Because they,
• 17:25
  so there's a huge split there now.
• 17:26
  So,
• 17:27
  essentially,
• 17:28
  they can,
• 17:28
  you know,
• 17:29
  again,
• 17:29
  you have to have the financial resources to do this,
• 17:30
  but I,
• 17:31
  I assure you,
• 17:32
  people have them,
• 17:33
  and they would take across,
• 17:35
  it might be polymarket,
• 17:36
  it might be predicted,
• 17:37
  it might be,
• 17:37
  uh,
• 17:37
  all the pick the exchange,
• 17:40
  and they would start dumping money into that to arbitrage this
• 17:43
  and make a big profit that way.
• 17:44
  Again,
• 17:45
  more pressure that you have to fight off.
• 17:47
  Now you're into this for $10.20 dollars,
• 17:49
  $30 million who knows how many millions of dollars you're into this,
• 17:51
  but
• 17:52
  To defend that position,
• 17:53
  it would cost basically
• 17:55
  uh an unlimited amount of money.
• 17:58
  If it was truly a false position that only you were supporting,
• 18:02
  every other player in this market would be attacking you constantly,
• 18:06
  and you would not be able to defend that position without an unlimited
• 18:10
  amount of money.
• 18:12
  Now
• 18:15
  Trying to keep that gap open would cost even more.
• 18:18
  If you did,
• 18:19
  however,
• 18:19
  successfully inflate these odds.
• 18:22
  You have to remember that moving the price
• 18:25
  of the first prediction market
• 18:27
  is different
• 18:28
  than moving votes.
• 18:30
  You haven't accomplished anything yet,
• 18:33
  right?
• 18:33
  Your whole big goal of manipulating the election
• 18:36
  has not been accomplished by the fact that that says 80%.
• 18:38
  All you've done is create more profit opportunities for me.
• 18:41
  That's all you've done so far.
• 18:43
  So right now,
• 18:44
  you're at a position where you've created,
• 18:46
  OK,
• 18:46
  let's say there's some buzz.
• 18:47
  Maybe a couple media institutions pick it up,
• 18:49
  but this has jumped from 66 to 80,
• 18:50
  and,
• 18:51
  and there's this one odd person buying millions and
• 18:53
  millions and millions of contracts at this price.
• 18:56
  OK,
• 18:56
  great.
• 18:58
  Now what?
• 19:02
  You have to understand that
• 19:03
  you're,
• 19:04
  if you're watching this show,
• 19:05
  first of all,
• 19:06
  I apologize,
• 19:07
  uh,
• 19:07
  you know,
• 19:07
  I barely even brush my hair in the morning,
• 19:09
  but secondly,
• 19:10
  and more importantly,
• 19:12
  You're,
• 19:12
  this is a brand new medium.
• 19:14
  We're one of the first shows that's
• 19:16
  ever been conceived to cover prediction markets.
• 19:21
  People don't understand these things yet,
• 19:24
  they don't
• 19:24
  watch them obsessively,
• 19:25
  like,
• 19:26
  like you might.
• 19:27
  They don't
• 19:29
  understand what what these things even do.
• 19:31
  Most people
• 19:32
  would likely
• 19:34
  not even know.
• 19:36
  That James Tallarico's price moved from 66 to 80 cents.
• 19:40
  They would not even know it occurred.
• 19:43
  The only way they would know it occurred
• 19:44
  is that maybe if a more mainstream institution
• 19:47
  picked up on it,
• 19:48
  spread it over multiple days.
• 19:49
  Again,
• 19:49
  how many millions of dollars are you spending to keep this price?
• 19:52
  And
• 19:53
  they would cover it and say,
• 19:54
  wow,
• 19:54
  James Tallarico Tallarico has uh has spiked.
• 19:57
  He's he's gone up to 80 cents.
• 19:59
  Well,
• 19:59
  what does that do?
• 20:02
  First of all,
• 20:03
  most people would not even know it existed.
• 20:05
  You've seen the numbers on CNN.
• 20:06
  If CNN ran this thing,
• 20:07
  you'd get,
• 20:08
  you know,
• 20:08
  a couple million super hyper
• 20:11
  politically engaged people,
• 20:12
  uh,
• 20:13
  who would maybe see it and maybe they're like,
• 20:15
  wow, ta Rico's doing better than I thought.
• 20:17
  But well,
• 20:17
  how would that change their behavior exactly?
• 20:19
  Remember,
• 20:20
  the people who are much more likely to
• 20:21
  know about a price change on a prediction market
• 20:24
  are the people who are highly politically engaged anyway.
• 20:28
  And therefore are very unlikely
• 20:31
  to change their vote or not vote because of a prediction market percentage.
• 20:36
  The what you'd be gaining here would be so small,
• 20:39
  at such a high cost,
• 20:41
  even if it worked,
• 20:41
  which I assure you it probably wouldn't.
• 20:45
  All of that to say that it would be,
• 20:47
  you'd be basically preaching to a choir,
• 20:50
  a choir of people who had already made up their minds.
• 20:53
  Very,
• 20:54
  very difficult to try to pull off.
• 20:55
  Also,
• 20:55
  you don't know what the effect of that is.
• 20:58
  Yeah,
• 20:58
  sure,
• 20:58
  if,
• 20:58
  if,
• 20:59
  let's say you want Tallarico to win,
• 21:00
  you push him up to 80 cents,
• 21:02
  yeah,
• 21:02
  uh,
• 21:03
  it's possible that some people might be like,
• 21:05
  oh gosh,
• 21:05
  you know,
• 21:06
  Republicans see that and like,
• 21:06
  oh God,
• 21:07
  this election's lost.
• 21:08
  I'm not gonna go vote for Ken Paxton.
• 21:10
  I mean,
• 21:10
  I,
• 21:10
  I,
• 21:11
  I live in Texas.
• 21:12
  I don't know anybody really who would do that,
• 21:13
  but OK,
• 21:14
  let's say there's,
• 21:15
  there's a few people out there that might do it.
• 21:16
  It's a close election,
• 21:17
  who knows.
• 21:18
  You might also get a lot of people
• 21:20
  who
• 21:20
  become complacent on your side and think,
• 21:22
  oh gosh,
• 21:22
  we've got this in the bag.
• 21:24
  I mean,
• 21:24
  I would think
• 21:25
  it's probably cancels each other out if you're lucky.
• 21:28
  On that front.
• 21:30
  And I also just to,
• 21:31
  just,
• 21:31
  uh,
• 21:32
  you know,
• 21:32
  look that up a couple of studies.
• 21:34
  Earlier in this year,
• 21:35
  uh,
• 21:35
  only about 20%,
• 21:36
  21% of American adults were even somewhat familiar with prediction markets.
• 21:41
  So you're talking about a,
• 21:41
  a small slice,
• 21:43
  that,
• 21:43
  that's somewhat familiar,
• 21:44
  not,
• 21:45
  uh,
• 21:46
  you know,
• 21:46
  hyper-engaged to know the price movement of every single market,
• 21:49
  OK?
• 21:49
  Um,
• 21:50
  another poll,
• 21:51
  uh,
• 21:51
  April 2026,
• 21:53
  71% of registered voters had recently heard
• 21:55
  little or nothing about prediction markets.
• 21:57
  By the way,
• 21:58
  I mean,
• 21:58
  look at the growth potential of this show.
• 21:59
  You won't even know what these things are yet.
• 22:01
  Maybe I was a little early.
• 22:03
  Um,
• 22:03
  and then 54% had heard nothing about them.
• 22:06
  The majority of our society has never heard of a prediction market.
• 22:11
  So how are you manipulating this exactly?
• 22:13
  How is that gonna work out for you?
• 22:15
  And a small percentage of people,
• 22:17
  growing vastly,
• 22:18
  by the way,
• 22:18
  and that's good,
• 22:20
  uh,
• 22:20
  but people don't really know.
• 22:21
  And the thing is,
• 22:22
  as it,
• 22:23
  as it grows,
• 22:24
  and as you might get to the potential where a market maneuver might,
• 22:27
  uh,
• 22:27
  manifest itself in a way that might,
• 22:29
  uh,
• 22:29
  you know,
• 22:29
  influence someone's opinion on an election.
• 22:33
  Prediction markets are growing so quickly,
• 22:34
  by that time there will be even more liquidity.
• 22:36
  It'll be even harder to move these markets.
• 22:39
  Every look,
• 22:39
  look,
• 22:39
  let's,
• 22:40
  it's one of those things.
• 22:41
  Around every little corner in the hedge maze is an end.
• 22:44
  You could try to navigate your way through it,
• 22:46
  but in this particular hedge maze,
• 22:48
  you just keep running into a bush over and over again.
• 22:51
  You just slam your face into prickers.
• 22:53
  That's what keeps happening.
• 22:54
  It would be almost impossible to do.
• 22:56
  Um,
• 22:56
  let me give you one more example about this,
• 22:58
  cause this is actually,
• 22:58
  we have some real.
• 23:00
  It's funny,
• 23:00
  it's in an article that makes it sound really ominous.
• 23:03
  On electoral electoral prediction markets,
• 23:05
  bets can be played,
• 23:06
  placed,
• 23:06
  excuse me,
• 23:07
  in an attempt to influence the results,
• 23:09
  not just predict them.
• 23:10
  Here's what to know.
• 23:12
  OK,
• 23:12
  so what's to know?
• 23:13
  Here,
• 23:13
  here's the article How Prediction Markets Upstage Election polls.
• 23:16
  Again,
• 23:16
  I think they are superior,
• 23:17
  but included,
• 23:19
  like,
• 23:19
  polls are part of prediction markets.
• 23:21
  All human knowledge is part of a prediction market.
• 23:23
  That's why it's so good.
• 23:25
  Uh,
• 23:25
  anyway.
• 23:26
  Someone,
• 23:27
  I,
• 23:27
  and I don't even think this was a manipulation attempt,
• 23:28
  to be fair.
• 23:29
  This is just someone who really believed Spencer Pratt was,
• 23:32
  uh,
• 23:32
  uh,
• 23:33
  it,
• 23:33
  it could be a manipulation attempt,
• 23:34
  but I think it was just a guy who just really believed Spencer Pratt was gonna win.
• 23:37
  And by the way,
• 23:38
  a local mayorals race,
• 23:39
  one that was highly covered,
• 23:40
  but a,
• 23:40
  a local race,
• 23:42
  he put $1.26 million
• 23:45
  into,
• 23:45
  uh,
• 23:46
  Spencer Pratt to win.
• 23:48
  And you might say,
• 23:48
  well,
• 23:49
  we,
• 23:49
  you know,
• 23:49
  all the stuff you've been talking about so far is somewhat hypothetical,
• 23:52
  right?
• 23:52
  Like where I'm saying that
• 23:54
  people would push the price back down,
• 23:55
  but you don't know whether to believe me or not.
• 23:57
  Well,
• 23:57
  here's what it looks like.
• 23:58
  This is a chart,
• 23:59
  uh,
• 23:59
  Ben Freeman actually posted this,
• 24:00
  but this is a chart.
• 24:03
  You see,
• 24:04
  uh,
• 24:04
  uh,
• 24:05
  Spencer Pratt was about 28 cents,
• 24:07
  28% to win.
• 24:09
  Someone put,
• 24:10
  uh,
• 24:10
  $1.3 million of their own money
• 24:13
  to buy Spencer Pratt's shares with no
• 24:15
  sense of price,
• 24:16
  and,
• 24:16
  and maybe it was a manipulation attempt just solely because.
• 24:21
  You could get this many shares if you waited and were patient at 28 cents.
• 24:25
  So why would you buy all of them up to 45 cents?
• 24:27
  But let's say it was,
• 24:28
  up to 45 cents,
• 24:29
  it went from 28 to 45,
• 24:31
  massive jump.
• 24:32
  How long did that jump last?
• 24:36
  9 seconds
• 24:39
  The jump lasted
• 24:40
  9.
• 24:42
  Seconds
• 24:44
  The Pratt trader bought,
• 24:45
  uh,
• 24:45
  bought through the order book,
• 24:46
  leading to a massive but temporary change in price.
• 24:48
  The distortion involved a whopping $1.25 million over the course of
• 24:52
  39 trades during a four-hour period visualized in red below.
• 24:56
  The largest of these trades created a
• 24:57
  drama dramatic book activity easily visualized here.
• 25:00
  When he got it up to $45 though,
• 25:01
  it lasted like nine seconds.
• 25:06
  That's not a long time.
• 25:08
  You'd have to have really perceptive people to
• 25:10
  change their vote over that 9 2nd difference,
• 25:12
  um.
• 25:14
  I think,
• 25:15
  to be fair here,
• 25:16
  if you go back enough time or find a market that has no money in it.
• 25:21
  You know,
• 25:21
  there are a lot of small markets like certain margin markets,
• 25:24
  but a lot of this stuff is all,
• 25:25
  uh,
• 25:26
  there's pressures created by it.
• 25:27
  I think if you found a really small market,
• 25:29
  you could move it around,
• 25:30
  probably still.
• 25:31
  I think if you go back 8,
• 25:33
  10 years,
• 25:34
  more of this stuff was attempted
• 25:36
  because,
• 25:36
  you know,
• 25:37
  no one really knew about these things.
• 25:38
  There wasn't a lot of money in them.
• 25:39
  It,
• 25:39
  it wasn't,
• 25:40
  all these different mechanisms didn't necessarily exist
• 25:43
  to correct the price really quickly.
• 25:45
  All that to be said though,
• 25:46
  right now,
• 25:47
  you could attempt it.
• 25:49
  What you would find it was almost impossible to maintain,
• 25:52
  would be massively expensive,
• 25:54
  and would give you almost no results.
• 25:56
  So,
• 25:57
  if that's the,
• 25:58
  the,
• 25:58
  the road you wanna go down,
• 25:59
  give it a whirl.
• 26:01
  Um,
• 26:02
  but I think
• 26:02
  at the end of the day,
• 26:03
  you'd realize that,
• 26:04
  you know,
• 26:04
  if you've got 1020 $30 million to spend.
• 26:08
  To try to hype up an election,
• 26:09
  you're much better,
• 26:10
  more likely to just,
• 26:11
  you know,
• 26:12
  try to
• 26:13
  put together an organization and go door to door,
• 26:15
  or to buy television or radio ads,
• 26:17
  or to do
• 26:18
  any number of normal things in a super PAC that you could do
• 26:22
  and that people are doing all the time.
• 26:24
  This would be likely a massive waste of your money.
• 26:28
  And,
• 26:28
  uh,
• 26:28
  if you wanted to attempt that,
• 26:29
  you could,
• 26:31
  but it is a fool's gold,
• 26:33
  and a fool's errand as well.
• 26:35
  Uh,
• 26:35
  so,
• 26:35
  the,
• 26:36
  the truth of this is.
• 26:37
  When you think,
• 26:38
  oh gosh,
• 26:38
  these things are being manipulated,
• 26:40
  almost certainly no is the answer.
• 26:42
  Almost certainly,
• 26:44
  no.
• 26:46
  There's just no pathway
• 26:48
  to do it
• 26:48
  and do it comfortably.
• 26:50
  Um,
• 26:50
  and,
• 26:50
  uh,
• 26:51
  and honestly,
• 26:51
  even if you did do it,
• 26:52
  it probably wouldn't accomplish anything.
• 26:55
  So,
• 26:55
  that's the truth about that.
• 26:56
  Uh,
• 26:57
  we have more coming up here in a second.
• 26:58
  I wanna get into,
• 26:58
  uh,
• 26:59
  Ohio.
• 27:00
  I wanna get into South Carolina a little bit.
• 27:02
  This is,
• 27:02
  uh,
• 27:03
  South Carolina a little bit on the fringes of this election all of a sudden,
• 27:05
  isn't it?
• 27:06
  Uh,
• 27:06
  that market is,
• 27:07
  is getting kind of interesting.
• 27:09
  Um,
• 27:09
  and some of the ads being run in those campaigns
• 27:11
  are getting interesting.
• 27:12
  Uh,
• 27:13
  so join us at PredictableShow.com.
• 27:14
  By the way,
• 27:15
  we're gonna be doing some live streams coming up here
• 27:16
  to try to get you prepped for the election,
• 27:19
  and of course our election night coverage will be there
• 27:21
  as well.
• 27:22
  We really appreciate you joining us and checking this stuff out.
• 27:24
  I guess,
• 27:24
  as I said just a second ago,
• 27:26
  you're early.
• 27:27
  You're really early on this stuff.
• 27:29
  You understand this stuff before almost anyone around you.
• 27:32
  So,
• 27:33
  take time to understand it,
• 27:34
  to grow and to figure this stuff out,
• 27:36
  but realize,
• 27:37
  be patient with it.
• 27:38
  There is a bit of a,
• 27:39
  uh,
• 27:39
  an uptake when it comes to understanding how these markets work and,
• 27:42
  and what you can do with them and
• 27:44
  how they can be utilized to your benefit.
• 27:46
  We're gonna help you walk you,
• 27:47
  walk you through that process,
• 27:48
  and
• 27:49
  I'll just remem uh recommend again,
• 27:50
  predictable101.com.
• 27:51
  If you're just getting into predictable,
• 27:53
  uh,
• 27:53
  prediction markets,
• 27:54
  uh,
• 27:54
  at the beginning.
• 27:55
  It's a great place to go.
• 27:56
  We'll get you everywhere from signing up to a site,
• 27:58
  uh,
• 27:59
  all the way to buying and selling and all the different ways that they have it,
• 28:01
  uh,
• 28:02
  and more to come.
• 28:02
  So,
• 28:03
  predictable 101,
• 28:04
  great resource for you,
• 28:05
  completely free.
• 28:05
  All right,
• 28:06
  back in a second.
• 28:24
  And now it's time for a tale of two ads.
• 28:27
  Um,
• 28:27
  I
• 28:28
  have noticed a.
• 28:30
  An incongruity,
• 28:32
  if,
• 28:32
  if I may,
• 28:33
  uh,
• 28:33
  between a couple of different ads.
• 28:34
  I wanna walk you
• 28:35
  through this and,
• 28:36
  and show you a couple of prediction markets
• 28:38
  that might give us some opportunities.
• 28:40
  Um,
• 28:40
  here,
• 28:41
  uh,
• 28:41
  we,
• 28:41
  we have the Vivek Ramaswamy ad first.
• 28:43
  Ohio venues are canceling Vivek Ramaswamy events
• 28:47
  as backlash grows.
• 28:48
  This is in response to an ad
• 28:50
  that he put,
• 28:51
  um,
• 28:52
  I mean,
• 28:52
  he didn't say these things,
• 28:53
  but the,
• 28:54
  the mother
• 28:55
  of his opponent,
• 28:56
  Amy Acton said things about
• 28:58
  Amy Acton.
• 28:59
  Said basically this is my daughter.
• 29:00
  I don't think we,
• 29:00
  I think,
• 29:01
  did we run the ad over here?
• 29:02
  I don't even remember.
• 29:02
  I know we did it on Stu and Dave do America,
• 29:04
  but,
• 29:05
  um,
• 29:05
  basically the ad was,
• 29:07
  hey,
• 29:07
  my daughter's a liar.
• 29:08
  She lies all the time.
• 29:09
  Um,
• 29:10
  I love her,
• 29:10
  but she does not tell the truth.
• 29:12
  Don't vote for her.
• 29:13
  You get that pitch.
• 29:14
  Now this is
• 29:15
  much more complicated than I just laid it out because.
• 29:17
  Um,
• 29:18
  Amy Acton said that she was abused as a child
• 29:21
  by
• 29:22
  this biological mother's,
• 29:24
  uh,
• 29:25
  husband,
• 29:26
  so Amy Acton's stepfather,
• 29:27
  if I have the,
• 29:28
  the family tree here,
• 29:30
  uh,
• 29:30
  correct.
• 29:31
  And so they left the house and have not talked to her in a very long time.
• 29:36
  Um,
• 29:38
  Quite
• 29:39
  clearly,
• 29:40
  the media has looked at this and said,
• 29:41
  OK,
• 29:42
  well,
• 29:42
  we believe,
• 29:43
  you know,
• 29:43
  believe all women.
• 29:45
  They believe one of the women,
• 29:46
  which is Amy Acton,
• 29:47
  and don't believe the other woman who is the mom.
• 29:49
  Now,
• 29:49
  I don't know what happened here,
• 29:51
  uh,
• 29:51
  frankly,
• 29:51
  uh,
• 29:51
  you know,
• 29:52
  I.
• 29:53
  It's,
• 29:53
  it's a million years ago and I don't know.
• 29:55
  I mean,
• 29:55
  uh,
• 29:56
  a lot of the evidence makes me think that
• 29:57
  maybe Amy Acton is telling the truth about it,
• 29:59
  but I,
• 29:59
  I,
• 30:00
  I don't know,
• 30:00
  you know,
• 30:00
  I just,
• 30:01
  it's one of those things that it's hard for me to litigate,
• 30:03
  um,
• 30:03
  and nor do I ever wanna think about it.
• 30:05
  Uh,
• 30:05
  obviously,
• 30:06
  if Amy Acton was lying about something this serious,
• 30:08
  it would be something that would be notable and,
• 30:10
  and votes of Ohio,
• 30:11
  uh,
• 30:12
  should know about it.
• 30:13
  But
• 30:13
  then again,
• 30:14
  if she wasn't lying,
• 30:14
  it's a terrible intrusion into a,
• 30:16
  an awful moment,
• 30:18
  uh,
• 30:18
  and,
• 30:18
  uh,
• 30:19
  era of her life,
• 30:20
  and nobody wants that.
• 30:22
  So.
• 30:23
  That's kind of the background of this.
• 30:24
  Now,
• 30:25
  Major Ohio newspapers are reversing their policy
• 30:27
  on endorsements to condemn Ramaswammiy ad.
• 30:29
  I guess they weren't going to,
• 30:30
  uh,
• 30:31
  endorse at all
• 30:32
  in this race,
• 30:32
  so instead they decided they were going to endorse and they endorsed Amy Acton.
• 30:37
  So,
• 30:38
  uh,
• 30:38
  because of this ad.
• 30:40
  OK,
• 30:41
  um,
• 30:42
  polls show Ramoswami falling behind in Ohio's
• 30:44
  governor's race is the headline from,
• 30:46
  uh,
• 30:47
  from,
• 30:47
  uh,
• 30:48
  what is this,
• 30:48
  uh,
• 30:49
  source,
• 30:49
  uh.
• 30:51
  I don't know what it is.
• 30:51
  Anyway,
• 30:52
  uh,
• 30:52
  it is,
• 30:53
  uh,
• 30:53
  they,
• 30:53
  they cite a New York Times Sienna poll released October 3rd.
• 30:56
  Again,
• 30:57
  that,
• 30:57
  that might be before the ad,
• 30:58
  right?
• 30:59
  That was before the ad.
• 31:00
  Um,
• 31:00
  on October 20,
• 31:01
  20th poll has it as a 7 point lead.
• 31:04
  So it went from 4 to 7,
• 31:05
  I guess is their point.
• 31:07
  Um,
• 31:07
  you know,
• 31:08
  again,
• 31:08
  two different pollsters,
• 31:09
  you can't really compare
• 31:10
  two different pollsters,
• 31:11
  um,
• 31:12
  like that,
• 31:12
  but
• 31:12
  whatever.
• 31:13
  Uh,
• 31:13
  you get the point.
• 31:14
  They're,
• 31:14
  they're making this narrative that now it's more of a blowout.
• 31:16
  Now it's been,
• 31:17
  uh,
• 31:17
  Acton's had a lead for a while.
• 31:20
  Hasn't been huge
• 31:22
  Um,
• 31:22
  and
• 31:23
  I don't know how much this ad is affecting,
• 31:25
  uh,
• 31:26
  this.
• 31:26
  I think it is a big talking point.
• 31:27
  I think people are talking about it
• 31:29
  in Ohio.
• 31:29
  I do think sometimes the people who pay super
• 31:32
  close attention to politics in the media and,
• 31:34
  you know,
• 31:34
  on Twitter and everything else
• 31:35
  tend to make more out of
• 31:37
  some of these controversies than,
• 31:39
  uh,
• 31:39
  actual voters do.
• 31:40
  Um,
• 31:41
  you know,
• 31:41
  I,
• 31:41
  it's hard to,
• 31:43
  there are definitely people like,
• 31:44
  think it,
• 31:44
  I mean,
• 31:44
  think about
• 31:45
  what,
• 31:45
  what it would make you to switch parties right now.
• 31:47
  What kind of ad would it need to be
• 31:50
  for you to decide to vote,
• 31:51
  uh,
• 31:51
  for higher or lower taxes or,
• 31:54
  uh,
• 31:54
  you know,
• 31:54
  uh,
• 31:54
  uh,
• 31:55
  the Second Amendment or not the Second Amendment,
• 31:57
  whatever your,
• 31:58
  your opinions are.
• 31:59
  Changing those views for you is,
• 32:01
  is probably pretty hard to do
• 32:03
  and we have to shake you up a little.
• 32:04
  This is a pretty dramatic moment.
• 32:06
  Um,
• 32:06
  this is how the markets have reacted to this,
• 32:08
  and,
• 32:08
  uh,
• 32:08
  and it's kind of interesting.
• 32:11
  Um,
• 32:11
  you see,
• 32:11
  uh,
• 32:12
  Acton,
• 32:12
  after really this being a 50/50 race up until September-ish or so.
• 32:17
  When was it?
• 32:18
  Can you check the date on this ad?
• 32:19
  When did this ad come out?
• 32:20
  I think,
• 32:21
  I feel like it was like 2 or 3 weeks ago.
• 32:23
  So I think it was definitely in October.
• 32:25
  Um,
• 32:25
  we will,
• 32:25
  uh,
• 32:25
  we'll get you to that here in a second,
• 32:27
  but
• 32:28
  Um,
• 32:29
  The,
• 32:30
  the race itself
• 32:31
  is an interesting one.
• 32:33
  And if you saw that market
• 32:35
  and how it had moved,
• 32:36
  it now has it as a 77 to 23 race.
• 32:39
  It looked like it was about,
• 32:40
  it pop,
• 32:41
  it's off a little bit off of its highs,
• 32:42
  but it was 80/20,
• 32:43
  not that long ago.
• 32:45
  Vivek Ramaswamy is
• 32:47
  in a red state.
• 32:48
  And is,
• 32:50
  uh,
• 32:51
  within a few points of Acton.
• 32:53
  We haven't seen much polling that would,
• 32:56
  uh,
• 32:57
  necessarily describe this as a blowout now because of this ad,
• 33:01
  though
• 33:01
  perhaps there's been movement.
• 33:02
  I mean,
• 33:02
  if you squint in the polling average,
• 33:04
  I think you can see it a little bit.
• 33:05
  Uh,
• 33:06
  right now,
• 33:06
  if you see in the middle there,
• 33:07
  uh,
• 33:07
  this is a Calshi,
• 33:08
  um,
• 33:09
  graphic,
• 33:10
  but in the middle there you see D + 3.2 margin forecast.
• 33:13
  So,
• 33:14
  again,
• 33:14
  what,
• 33:15
  what is being forecasted is a 3 point race.
• 33:17
  And it is an 80/20 situation.
• 33:20
  You wonder,
• 33:20
  is there
• 33:21
  opportunity there on the Ramaswamy side?
• 33:23
  At some point,
• 33:24
  this becomes cheap enough that I'm buying shares in it.
• 33:26
  I don't know what it is.
• 33:28
  Uh,
• 33:28
  but it's,
• 33:28
  it's close.
• 33:30
  We're,
• 33:30
  we're almost there.
• 33:31
  And honestly,
• 33:31
  I kind of thought Ramaswami would win this race,
• 33:33
  uh,
• 33:33
  if you go back 6 months.
• 33:35
  Um,
• 33:35
  Amy Acton is the,
• 33:36
  uh,
• 33:37
  the COVID,
• 33:37
  uh,
• 33:38
  chief
• 33:39
  for Ohio.
• 33:40
  Ohio kind of famously known as the one red state that was really,
• 33:43
  really restrictive
• 33:45
  when it came to,
• 33:46
  um,
• 33:47
  these particular,
• 33:48
  uh,
• 33:48
  restrictions for COVID.
• 33:49
  So interesting,
• 33:50
  but
• 33:51
  I also wanna kind of just,
• 33:52
  maybe this is a little bit of a sidebar.
• 33:55
  It sure seems
• 33:57
  like there's a lot,
• 33:59
  uh,
• 33:59
  there's a much higher amounts of consternation against Vivek Ramaswamy
• 34:03
  than there was in the race in South Carolina.
• 34:07
  Where we saw
• 34:09
  a,
• 34:09
  an expose
• 34:11
  of Lindsay,
• 34:12
  not Darlene Graham Nordone,
• 34:13
  the candidate,
• 34:14
  but Lindsey Graham,
• 34:15
  the dead senator,
• 34:17
  uh,
• 34:17
  who passed away and is the brother of Lindsey Graham,
• 34:20
  because of some
• 34:22
  alleged sexual habits he had.
• 34:24
  A big expose
• 34:26
  put out there by left-wing groups
• 34:28
  to say that Lindsey Graham was hooking up with male prostitutes.
• 34:31
  Uh,
• 34:31
  and these male prostitutes are just presented in the most glowing of light,
• 34:35
  uh,
• 34:35
  which I'm sure they're the most,
• 34:36
  the greatest people in the world,
• 34:38
  no doubt about it.
• 34:39
  Um,
• 34:40
  this is,
• 34:40
  and this is,
• 34:41
  of course,
• 34:41
  covered by,
• 34:42
  you know,
• 34:43
  this getting lots of attention.
• 34:44
  Uh,
• 34:44
  the video by left-wing group claims Lindsey Graham paid men for sex.
• 34:48
  Progressive activists released a video of three men
• 34:51
  making the allegations about the South Carolina Republican
• 34:54
  who,
• 34:54
  you know,
• 34:55
  is dead.
• 34:56
  And has been since July.
• 34:58
  Um,
• 35:00
  Darlene Graham won't,
• 35:01
  uh,
• 35:02
  answer questions about these claims.
• 35:06
  Just
• 35:07
  answer me that question,
• 35:08
  why would she?
• 35:09
  I,
• 35:09
  I,
• 35:09
  frankly,
• 35:10
  why on earth would
• 35:12
  the sister,
• 35:13
  a grieving sister
• 35:16
  of a guy,
• 35:16
  answer
• 35:18
  questions about whether he was hooking up with male prostitutes.
• 35:22
  Of course he's,
• 35:22
  she's not answering questions about that.
• 35:24
  She's the candidate,
• 35:25
  he's not.
• 35:28
  President Trump holding a rally in South Carolina,
• 35:31
  um,
• 35:32
  to try to
• 35:33
  close the voting gap.
• 35:34
  I will say,
• 35:35
  uh,
• 35:35
  you know,
• 35:35
  this is another thing that a lot is a big rumor.
• 35:37
  One of the reasons these markets are moving like they are
• 35:40
  is Democratic early vote numbers look very good
• 35:43
  in many places,
• 35:44
  not everywhere,
• 35:44
  but in many places.
• 35:45
  Um,
• 35:46
  uh,
• 35:46
  I'm not a big,
• 35:47
  I don't,
• 35:48
  I don't dive too deeply into the early voting stuff because it's very,
• 35:52
  very hard to read.
• 35:53
  Um,
• 35:54
  so,
• 35:54
  I,
• 35:54
  I'll show you some tools that maybe can help with that.
• 35:56
  I know Patrick Ruffinni started one,
• 35:58
  which I thought was pretty helpful,
• 35:59
  but I just don't know how much you get out of it,
• 36:01
  um,
• 36:02
  because you just don't know.
• 36:03
  You don't know,
• 36:04
  uh,
• 36:04
  uh,
• 36:04
  it can measure passion.
• 36:06
  Uh,
• 36:06
  it can measure,
• 36:08
  you know,
• 36:08
  certain things,
• 36:09
  but you just don't know.
• 36:09
  Like,
• 36:10
  you know,
• 36:10
  it's one of those things
• 36:11
  that when,
• 36:11
  you know,
• 36:12
  if you,
• 36:12
  if you say,
• 36:12
  hey,
• 36:13
  we're gonna knock,
• 36:14
  uh,
• 36:14
  $10,000 off our cars,
• 36:16
  uh,
• 36:16
  for the next 5 days and you get a bunch of sales,
• 36:18
  how many of those sales were people that were gonna buy anyway for $10,000 more
• 36:21
  two weeks from now?
• 36:22
  And they moved their purchase up because you gave them this big discount.
• 36:25
  You just don't know.
• 36:26
  And when people get excited and they get out there and they vote early,
• 36:28
  that might mean that they're very excited to vote,
• 36:30
  but their vote,
• 36:31
  at least at this point,
• 36:33
  still only counts once.
• 36:35
  This is what the South Carolina race looks like,
• 36:37
  and you can see.
• 36:38
  You know,
• 36:39
  without the negative media attention on,
• 36:41
  on,
• 36:41
  uh,
• 36:42
  someone like Ramaswamy for his
• 36:43
  controversial ad,
• 36:45
  Annie Andrews is just,
• 36:46
  you know,
• 36:46
  kind of cruising along
• 36:48
  and now increasing to a 24% chance.
• 36:51
  Um,
• 36:51
  Darlene Graham,
• 36:51
  I have backed out.
• 36:52
  I,
• 36:52
  I had some Darlene Graham early.
• 36:54
  I took a little bit of a loss on it because I just,
• 36:56
  you know,
• 36:56
  I don't think she's the greatest candidate in the world,
• 36:58
  having nothing to do with whether her
• 37:00
  dead brother slept with dudes.
• 37:02
  Uh,
• 37:02
  but like,
• 37:02
  you know,
• 37:03
  I just,
• 37:03
  I don't think she's a great candidate and I do think there's
• 37:05
  a little bit of a worry on the fringes of a blue wave
• 37:07
  that this race could be affected.
• 37:09
  Um,
• 37:09
  and I just like,
• 37:10
  you know what,
• 37:10
  I'll take a tiny loss now again,
• 37:11
  uh,
• 37:11
  what,
• 37:12
  what's our.
• 37:13
  17th Amendment to the predictable Constitution is
• 37:16
  a smaller loss
• 37:17
  is a win.
• 37:18
  So I might not lose that race.
• 37:19
  I think likely she'll probably still win
• 37:22
  in South Carolina,
• 37:23
  but
• 37:23
  that's the thing,
• 37:23
  when you don't have this negative attention,
• 37:25
  like it's,
• 37:26
  it's not like Amy Adams,
• 37:27
  uh,
• 37:27
  Amy Adams,
• 37:28
  I don't know if she's running,
• 37:29
  um,
• 37:29
  Annie,
• 37:30
  what is it?
• 37:30
  Annie,
• 37:31
  Annie Andrews,
• 37:32
  Annie Williams,
• 37:33
  um,
• 37:34
  what's her name?
• 37:34
  Annie Andrews.
• 37:36
  I have no idea what her name is.
• 37:37
  I got have her confused with 9 different actresses.
• 37:39
  Um,
• 37:40
  uh,
• 37:40
  she
• 37:41
  is
• 37:42
  in this race and,
• 37:43
  and,
• 37:43
  and is not dealing with the negatives.
• 37:45
  Now,
• 37:45
  there is a distinction here that I wanna make sure I point out.
• 37:47
  It was a Ramaswamy
• 37:49
  ad.
• 37:50
  Though the controversy started and it was being covered heavily
• 37:53
  before anyone knew it was a Ramaswamy ad.
• 37:55
  Uh,
• 37:56
  they had to confirm that like a week later.
• 37:58
  So I don't know if that actually counts or not,
• 37:59
  but,
• 38:00
  uh,
• 38:00
  Andrew's not getting the negative attention.
• 38:01
  I will just say that there's just,
• 38:02
  you'd think there'd be an equal,
• 38:05
  uh,
• 38:05
  at least an equal amount of outrage versus at these two approaches.
• 38:09
  At the very least,
• 38:10
  you'd think it would be an equal amount,
• 38:11
  and of course it's not at all.
• 38:12
  And that tells you something very,
• 38:13
  very true
• 38:15
  about the media
• 38:15
  to this moment,
• 38:16
  it will continue probably to the end of time.
• 38:18
  OK,
• 38:18
  gotta take a break.
• 38:19
  Back in a second.
• 38:34
  So the NBA is partnering with Calci and Poly Market amid regulation fights as
• 38:39
  ESPN and there's been a lot of these partnerships that have started up,
• 38:43
  uh,
• 38:43
  and,
• 38:43
  uh,
• 38:44
  you know,
• 38:44
  it like,
• 38:44
  it's
• 38:46
  obviously,
• 38:46
  I think there's a,
• 38:47
  an obvious crossover.
• 38:48
  Sports is one of those things that people are comfortable
• 38:51
  thinking about in this way,
• 38:53
  taking their knowledge and turning it into
• 38:55
  positions they might gain,
• 38:57
  uh,
• 38:57
  money on.
• 38:58
  Um,
• 38:58
  that's been happening obviously for a while,
• 38:59
  I think,
• 39:00
  you know,
• 39:00
  my,
• 39:00
  my
• 39:01
  personal opinion is that a prediction market gives you a much
• 39:03
  better experience than some of the other options in that world,
• 39:05
  but,
• 39:05
  uh,
• 39:06
  that being said,
• 39:06
  it's,
• 39:06
  it's one of those situations where,
• 39:08
  um,
• 39:08
  it's a growing,
• 39:09
  uh,
• 39:09
  thing,
• 39:10
  and a lot of people
• 39:11
  who are already familiar with that type of monetary risk
• 39:14
  are able to kind of jump into these markets a
• 39:16
  lot quicker than the average person who's never really,
• 39:18
  uh,
• 39:18
  dabbled in that way.
• 39:20
  Um,
• 39:20
  of course,
• 39:21
  there's a legal battle.
• 39:22
  Uh,
• 39:23
  there are a lot of your,
• 39:25
  your,
• 39:25
  your nanny
• 39:26
  is out is out there,
• 39:27
  and,
• 39:27
  and their nanny always wants to make sure
• 39:28
  you're doing what they think is responsible.
• 39:30
  That's important.
• 39:32
  Government always knows best.
• 39:33
  They always know what you should do with your money better than you,
• 39:37
  and I can't believe you're still questioning that.
• 39:39
  I'm very upset at you
• 39:40
  for even thinking that you,
• 39:42
  you would know what to do with your money.
• 39:45
  That's disgusting for you to even believe that.
• 39:48
  The truth is,
• 39:49
  of course,
• 39:49
  the people in Washington know best,
• 39:51
  and the people in all of your different states.
• 39:53
  Um,
• 39:54
  Calci could be headed for a,
• 39:55
  uh,
• 39:55
  Supreme Court showdown,
• 39:57
  uh,
• 39:57
  says the CEO of Calci,
• 39:59
  but interesting,
• 40:00
  um,
• 40:00
  nugget in this particular report is from Reuters.
• 40:04
  Uh,
• 40:05
  this,
• 40:06
  this is,
• 40:07
  because one of the things people say is like,
• 40:08
  oh,
• 40:08
  it's all,
• 40:08
  you know,
• 40:09
  it's all sports,
• 40:09
  it's all,
• 40:10
  uh,
• 40:11
  sports betting and all these other things.
• 40:14
  We've gone through that a million times,
• 40:16
  but,
• 40:17
  you know,
• 40:17
  it has been a high percentage
• 40:18
  of what,
• 40:20
  uh,
• 40:20
  these prediction markets are doing,
• 40:21
  as for the reasons I just stated,
• 40:23
  and,
• 40:24
  and others as well,
• 40:25
  um,
• 40:25
  which we can talk about,
• 40:26
  but this is the new,
• 40:27
  uh,
• 40:28
  rate,
• 40:28
  and it's,
• 40:29
  it's quite a different,
• 40:30
  uh,
• 40:30
  story.
• 40:31
  Sports now generate about 65% of Calshi's revenue.
• 40:35
  That is down from approximately 95%
• 40:37
  9 months ago.
• 40:39
  So,
• 40:39
  in just 9 months,
• 40:40
  it's gone from 95% to 65%.
• 40:42
  The reason for that is,
• 40:43
  you know,
• 40:43
  it's a couple of different things.
• 40:44
  People getting more familiar with them,
• 40:46
  more money coming in from institutions and other people who are interested in this.
• 40:50
  Um,
• 40:50
  and interested in different topics.
• 40:52
  The other thing too is obviously the elections,
• 40:54
  and this is,
• 40:54
  remember,
• 40:54
  a pretty boring
• 40:56
  midterm election.
• 40:57
  When I say boring,
• 40:58
  I mean like,
• 40:58
  you know,
• 40:59
  there's a heavy favorite here.
• 41:00
  This does not seem like a 50/50 thing,
• 41:02
  you know,
• 41:03
  it's not like the,
• 41:04
  the normal exciting election.
• 41:05
  Can you imagine what 2028 is going to look like?
• 41:08
  If it's 6,
• 41:08
  only 65% now,
• 41:10
  I imagine,
• 41:10
  uh,
• 41:11
  what it's going to be.
• 41:12
  As you go forward,
• 41:13
  it's probably gonna be even lower than 65% that sports.
• 41:16
  And of course,
• 41:16
  you know,
• 41:17
  part of the reason for this is
• 41:18
  they don't,
• 41:19
  they don't put 10
• 41:20
  elections on TV every single night all year long,
• 41:23
  right?
• 41:24
  The
• 41:25
  sports is unique.
• 41:26
  There's so many events associated with sports,
• 41:29
  right?
• 41:29
  There's 82 games in an NBA schedule.
• 41:31
  There,
• 41:31
  there are,
• 41:32
  you know,
• 41:32
  obviously,
• 41:33
  every weekend is loaded with Football and college football.
• 41:36
  You also,
• 41:37
  of course,
• 41:37
  have Major League Baseball,
• 41:38
  162 games,
• 41:39
  which they should keep it 162,
• 41:40
  by the way.
• 41:41
  Stop screwing with the numbers.
• 41:43
  Well,
• 41:43
  they need more days off.
• 41:44
  Stop it.
• 41:45
  Stop.
• 41:45
  160.
• 41:46
  Keep it consistent.
• 41:47
  Anyway,
• 41:48
  point is,
• 41:48
  a lot more opportunities to go in,
• 41:50
  uh,
• 41:50
  on,
• 41:50
  in the sporting world than there are in the election world,
• 41:52
  but these elections.
• 41:53
  When,
• 41:54
  as they are taking hold,
• 41:55
  can you imagine what 2028 is gonna be like?
• 41:57
  Imagine a presidential race with these things going on
• 42:00
  in a way that
• 42:01
  people are really engaged with it and really trying
• 42:04
  to,
• 42:04
  uh,
• 42:04
  understand these elections more
• 42:06
  and potentially profit as well.
• 42:07
  I hope you'll be here with me.
• 42:08
  Uh,
• 42:08
  we'll be profiting here.
• 42:09
  Uh,
• 42:10
  I hope,
• 42:10
  uh,
• 42:10
  next,
• 42:11
  uh,
• 42:11
  Tuesday,
• 42:11
  big election live stream,
• 42:13
  part of our coverage,
• 42:14
  uh,
• 42:14
  on YouTube.com/atpredictableshow
• 42:17
  and predictableshow.com.
• 42:31
  Well,
• 42:31
  the Philadelphia Eagles fell to 2 and 5.
• 42:35
  As their season continues to spiral downwards,
• 42:37
  the home loss to the Dallas freaking Cowboys.
• 42:39
  Yes,
• 42:40
  this is the worst day of my year.
• 42:42
  Um,
• 42:42
  and,
• 42:42
  uh,
• 42:43
  I will say,
• 42:44
  look,
• 42:44
  uh,
• 42:45
  doesn't always work out every year.
• 42:47
  Uh,
• 42:47
  Eagles have had,
• 42:47
  I will say,
• 42:48
  very fortunate,
• 42:50
  uh,
• 42:50
  injury luck over the years,
• 42:52
  um,
• 42:52
  uh,
• 42:53
  over this past run in particular.
• 42:54
  This year,
• 42:55
  they're paying the price for that,
• 42:56
  and every single,
• 42:57
  I think they're on their 6th running back last night at one point,
• 43:00
  their 6th string running back,
• 43:02
  um.
• 43:02
  That's not good.
• 43:03
  Not to mention they're aren't playing well.
• 43:05
  Their defense was pretty healthy and was absolutely terrible yesterday,
• 43:08
  so no excuses here.
• 43:09
  Um,
• 43:10
  but there's no excuses for you either,
• 43:11
  because every,
• 43:12
  you know,
• 43:12
  every once in a while,
• 43:12
  I do ask you for something.
• 43:14
  I say,
• 43:14
  hey,
• 43:14
  you know,
• 43:15
  do you mind,
• 43:15
  if you got the extra currency out there,
• 43:17
  you know,
• 43:17
  you wanna come on,
• 43:19
  become a,
• 43:19
  a,
• 43:19
  a predictableShow.com member.
• 43:21
  It's a great value for you and you'll get great value out of it.
• 43:24
  And you might say,
• 43:24
  well,
• 43:24
  I don't wanna spend any money on that,
• 43:25
  and I understand that.
• 43:26
  However,
• 43:27
  You should,
• 43:28
  you don't have to.
• 43:29
  I gave you the free money
• 43:31
  a long time ago when I told you
• 43:33
  it was 100% guaranteed the Philadelphia Eagles were not gonna win
• 43:37
  13 games this year.
• 43:40
  It was completely insane.
• 43:41
  You could have turned that into any amount of money,
• 43:43
  uh,
• 43:44
  that you wanted to,
• 43:45
  and,
• 43:45
  uh,
• 43:45
  and I'm,
• 43:46
  I'm doing that myself.
• 43:47
  Uh,
• 43:47
  I will say,
• 43:48
  uh.
• 43:49
  It is nice to get paid for your pain.
• 43:50
  We like to hedge our life a little bit here.
• 43:52
  So if you,
• 43:52
  this is one of the reasons,
• 43:53
  one of the ways I sincerely use prediction markets.
• 43:55
  Look,
• 43:56
  my days get worse when the Eagles lose,
• 43:58
  and they suck.
• 43:58
  This season's gonna suck,
• 43:59
  and I gotta get all the way through it.
• 44:01
  I'm,
• 44:01
  I'm,
• 44:01
  I'm,
• 44:02
  I'm not happy about it,
• 44:03
  but
• 44:03
  I'm being paid for my pain routinely,
• 44:06
  you know,
• 44:06
  I have,
• 44:07
  uh,
• 44:07
  do we have the market on the how many wins?
• 44:09
  What are they saying now?
• 44:10
  Oh God.
• 44:11
  The days after that big Tennessee win in the last seconds
• 44:13
  when they were thinking it was gonna be 13 wins,
• 44:16
  uh,
• 44:16
  now they're saying it's 6.
• 44:19
  6.
• 44:19
  I have no positions on everything down to 9 wins.
• 44:22
  I think that's as pessimistic as I got.
• 44:24
  I wish I went lower than that.
• 44:25
  Uh,
• 44:26
  but the bottom line is you can hedge,
• 44:27
  uh,
• 44:27
  you know,
• 44:28
  your own
• 44:28
  pain.
• 44:29
  And get paid for that pain,
• 44:31
  uh,
• 44:31
  with prediction Markets.
• 44:32
  Uh,
• 44:32
  it's a tool I really like using and I do all the time.
• 44:35
  So,
• 44:35
  anyway,
• 44:35
  uh,
• 44:35
  that's what we have for tonight's show.
• 44:37
  Uh,
• 44:37
  go to predictableShow.com.
• 44:39
  Take the money you should have won on the Eagles and put it into this,
• 44:41
  uh,
• 44:41
  in the website membership.
• 44:42
  You'll,
• 44:43
  you'll get value out of it.
• 44:44
  Many people,
• 44:45
  uh,
• 44:45
  on the,
• 44:45
  that are,
• 44:46
  uh,
• 44:46
  subscribers are already saying they paid for their
• 44:47
  entire year's subscription just based on it.
• 44:49
  So,
• 44:50
  please
• 44:51
  jump on board PredictableShow.com.
• 44:52
  We'll see you later.