Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / No Rate Cut Crashing Crypto🔥Technical Analysis with Data Dash
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Let's get into it today. This is going to be
- 0:01Speaker 1: a good one because we're going to talk about is
- 0:03Speaker 1: the rate cut potentially the saving grace for crypto. Let's
- 0:07Speaker 1: just jump right in. I do want to thank our sponsor,
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- 0:28Speaker 1: You guys are going to love it. Let's get into
- 0:30Speaker 1: it today. I do want to bring in our analyst today,
- 0:34Speaker 1: which course is data Dash. You guys have met Paul
- 0:36Speaker 1: Samson before, but if you've never been to his channel,
- 0:40Speaker 1: jump over to YouTube and subscribe to data Dash. Okay,
- 0:44Speaker 1: just take some time, get over there, subscribe right now.
- 0:47Speaker 1: He drops. Are you doing videos daily? Paul?
- 0:51Speaker 2: Five days a week?
- 0:52Speaker 1: All right, five days a week.
- 0:53Speaker 2: There you go.
- 0:54Speaker 1: Lots of insights and some great trading analysis to get
- 0:58Speaker 1: into it. Paul, welcome in. Let's get into a couple
- 1:01Speaker 1: of points I want to jump into. First, we've got
- 1:04Speaker 1: the FOMC meeting results that are going to be coming
- 1:07Speaker 1: in around two pm. This, of course is going to
- 1:09Speaker 1: tell us what the officials are thinking here in about
- 1:11Speaker 1: forty five minutes, says, we're recording this. But at the
- 1:14Speaker 1: same time, we've got a problem, and that of course
- 1:17Speaker 1: is a poly market that keeps being very erratic on
- 1:20Speaker 1: whether or not we're going to get a rate cut.
- 1:21Speaker 1: What's your opinion right now, rate cut or no rate cut.
- 1:26Speaker 3: I think that if anything is going to be twenty
- 1:27Speaker 3: five bases points. But yeah, it's I'm with polymarket.
- 1:32Speaker 2: I'm up in the air. Honestly, it's hard to call
- 1:34Speaker 2: right now.
- 1:35Speaker 3: With all the everything that happened, especially with all the
- 1:37Speaker 3: government shut down, all the information that was withheld and
- 1:40Speaker 3: now coming out and everything along those natures, I don't
- 1:41Speaker 3: know if that's going to skew anything. So yeah, I
- 1:44Speaker 3: mean it makes sense to where things are kind of,
- 1:46Speaker 3: you know, just kind of fifty to fifty ear and
- 1:47Speaker 3: I guess in this case a little oliver its place
- 1:50Speaker 3: in the sense.
- 1:51Speaker 1: Yeah, it has had a big reversal just since yesterday
- 1:55Speaker 1: for the no change potential here, even though almost every
- 1:59Speaker 1: analyst I've talked to in this last week have all
- 2:03Speaker 1: been pushing toward a quarter point, even though they don't
- 2:06Speaker 1: know that necessarily will help markets any But that's the
- 2:09Speaker 1: kind of idea that they're kind of pushing to, is
- 2:12Speaker 1: a quarter point now and back up in January. But
- 2:15Speaker 1: of course Trump also announced that he was going to
- 2:17Speaker 1: have a FED chair named by end of year. Then
- 2:20Speaker 1: you have some other things that he is posting out
- 2:22Speaker 1: there in reference to Nvidia, and part of this is
- 2:26Speaker 1: all talking about Nvidia's Blackwell chip. So there's at least
- 2:30Speaker 1: some narrative where he's saying, hey, I'm propping up the
- 2:32Speaker 1: AI industry. The AI industry, though, is having a little
- 2:37Speaker 1: bit of a struggle as well, as we see the
- 2:39Speaker 1: S and P starting to falter a little bit. I
- 2:42Speaker 1: want to go into one more clip to kind of
- 2:45Speaker 1: put together this macro puzzle for you and then get
- 2:48Speaker 1: your opinion on this. Let's go over to the Scott
- 2:50Speaker 1: Bessett talking a little bit more around an insurance cut.
- 2:54Speaker 2: Take a look, we have an answer.
- 2:56Speaker 4: Do you think from the FED about another cut? Do
- 2:59Speaker 4: you think that's where they're going.
- 3:01Speaker 2: I hope it's.
- 3:01Speaker 4: Where they're going, because when you're in uncertain times, and
- 3:05Speaker 4: after what this Schumer shut down did to the economy,
- 3:09Speaker 4: I would think that if you're not taking out an
- 3:12Speaker 4: insurance cut here, or if you're flying blind, and they say, well,
- 3:16Speaker 4: we don't have data, well, if you don't have data,
- 3:19Speaker 4: then that's what insurance is for. So I would encourage them.
- 3:23Speaker 4: They've gone into a cycle. So let's go one two
- 3:26Speaker 4: three and we can see from there.
- 3:29Speaker 2: We'll continue to follow up.
- 3:31Speaker 1: All right, So a one two three insurance cut is
- 3:34Speaker 1: the idea that Besson is pushing. And then of course
- 3:37Speaker 1: you've got this statement right here, which is why of
- 3:40Speaker 1: the fed's next interest rate move is becoming so hard
- 3:44Speaker 1: to predict. First of all, you look at the lack
- 3:46Speaker 1: of data. You look at the market pressure that we're
- 3:49Speaker 1: seeing right now, even coming from the S and P
- 3:52Speaker 1: and Bitcoin. Let's before we go to the next clip.
- 3:55Speaker 1: I'm kind of curious. First of all, Bitcoin recovers the
- 4:00Speaker 1: ninety k mark and then it just turns right back around.
- 4:03Speaker 1: Anything that you're seeing that's indicative of why that chart
- 4:07Speaker 1: is moving that way.
- 4:10Speaker 2: Yeah, so I was covering this.
- 4:12Speaker 3: I'd like to say a couple times here and there
- 4:14Speaker 3: with you over the last few months, even all the
- 4:17Speaker 3: way back to like the earlier part of this year,
- 4:19Speaker 3: where we were in this what's known as an ab
- 4:21Speaker 3: equal CD setup, where the timing of this to complete,
- 4:25Speaker 3: which is up in this region, and this is a
- 4:26Speaker 3: bear setup to begin with, was the end of September,
- 4:29Speaker 3: first of October. I think we're actually doing a show
- 4:32Speaker 3: on the sixth of October when that original like Reddit
- 4:35Speaker 3: post was going around and everybody's looking at that as
- 4:37Speaker 3: a high Personally, I thought we'd get a little bit
- 4:40Speaker 3: more of a push towards like one thirty, but to
- 4:42Speaker 3: be fair, timing was there and this setup and everything
- 4:44Speaker 3: along those lines. Anyhow, this setup is very valid at
- 4:47Speaker 3: that point. The major target areas of something like this
- 4:51Speaker 3: is back to these two regions, which we pretty much
- 4:53Speaker 3: had that wick down right away, which was that October
- 4:56Speaker 3: tenth liquidation wick. We were holding on here for quite
- 4:58Speaker 3: a bit, little bounce back higher, then we lost this region,
- 5:02Speaker 3: back tested it right there off to our next area here,
- 5:05Speaker 3: and then as you just said, now we've lost that
- 5:07Speaker 3: as well. The more aggressive area of this setup is
- 5:10Speaker 3: actually all the way back to our tariff flows, but
- 5:12Speaker 3: currently right now that area is now acting as just
- 5:15Speaker 3: the major resistance at hand. So we had that, as
- 5:17Speaker 3: you stated, the little push back up towards about ninety
- 5:20Speaker 3: I'd like to say it was right at that level
- 5:22Speaker 3: that ninety three three seventy, give or take just a
- 5:25Speaker 3: couple of days ago. That's also our yearly open. So
- 5:27Speaker 3: that's a really big area for the year to be
- 5:30Speaker 3: aware of. Of course, at that point now we have
- 5:33Speaker 3: also basically given up all gains of twenty twenty five.
- 5:37Speaker 3: Granted it was you know, twenty five thousand dollars move
- 5:39Speaker 3: twenty percent, but still, you know, to give all that
- 5:41Speaker 3: backup is not a great feeling towards the end of
- 5:43Speaker 3: the year here. But yeah, we lost that key region
- 5:45Speaker 3: a back test of it now, so that's really big
- 5:46Speaker 3: resistance at this point, and so just to get the
- 5:49Speaker 3: rejection off of that is just seems the course at
- 5:53Speaker 3: the moment. We can break that down a little bit
- 5:54Speaker 3: more as we go, but that's the overall, like big
- 5:57Speaker 3: macro setup that I've kind of had for quite some time. Again,
- 6:00Speaker 3: I was hoping it would get a little bit more
- 6:01Speaker 3: of a push. I kind of felt it was a
- 6:03Speaker 3: little odd when everybody was truly you know, getting on
- 6:05Speaker 3: the same bandwagon. I felt like where everybody's like picturing
- 6:07Speaker 3: the four year cycle and the market is over, but regardless, the.
- 6:12Speaker 2: Information was there and the areas that we are at now.
- 6:15Speaker 3: So yeah, ninety three three is a big one to
- 6:17Speaker 3: get back above if we're going to do anything here.
- 6:18Speaker 2: Otherwise, more downside is you know, on the docket.
- 6:21Speaker 1: So more downside. We already have this kind of hawkish
- 6:26Speaker 1: feeling coming out of Wall Street and also coming out
- 6:29Speaker 1: of the administration. It seems as though the President's team
- 6:33Speaker 1: is really struggling trying to get at least Chair Pal
- 6:36Speaker 1: to reconsider and do these kinds of insurance cuts in general.
- 6:40Speaker 1: If they don't do it, I'm gonna play a clip
- 6:43Speaker 1: for you. But if they don't do it, Paul, what
- 6:45Speaker 1: would be the worst case scenario for bitcoin? Do you
- 6:48Speaker 1: feel by end of year?
- 6:51Speaker 2: Worst by interviere?
- 6:53Speaker 3: The worst case is probably back down to those Tara flows,
- 6:55Speaker 3: you know, getting back to that seventy four K into
- 6:57Speaker 3: the sixty nine twenty one high. So I feel like
- 7:01Speaker 3: that and that's about, you know, a twenty percent drop
- 7:02Speaker 3: from here. So we've we've dropped about thirty percent almost
- 7:05Speaker 3: now over the course of the last six weeks.
- 7:07Speaker 2: We've got six weeks left.
- 7:08Speaker 3: That just kind of ties into the same amount of
- 7:10Speaker 3: you know, downside if we're going to get it. But yeah,
- 7:13Speaker 3: I would say that sixty nine and seventy four would
- 7:15Speaker 3: be like the worst case. Now, I do have a
- 7:16Speaker 3: little bit of a saving grace here around this eighty
- 7:18Speaker 3: seven thousand, and we can touch on that here as
- 7:20Speaker 3: far as a little bullish outlook, but yeah, worst case,
- 7:23Speaker 3: I would say sixty nine and seventy four.
- 7:25Speaker 1: So okay, So that I have so many questions about
- 7:28Speaker 1: this because it starts to change up the dynamic around
- 7:32Speaker 1: cycles and I want to go into that, but I
- 7:34Speaker 1: want to play this clip for you because this is
- 7:35Speaker 1: Pantera talking about the hawkst stance and why this pullback
- 7:40Speaker 1: could position the market a little bit differently.
- 7:43Speaker 5: Take a look, is this crypto winter coming early here?
- 7:46Speaker 2: Crypto tends to.
- 7:47Speaker 5: Have these characteristics at rits on assets, so it's also
- 7:50Speaker 5: pulling back on macroaction. And you guys have just talked
- 7:54Speaker 5: about the large macro concerns like the AI capex sphere,
- 7:56Speaker 5: causing that when we pull back, the figures are on
- 7:59Speaker 5: credit around the fence plan for rate cuts. So what
- 8:02Speaker 5: we already saw is that a lot of the leverage
- 8:04Speaker 5: has been taken out of the bigcoin ecosystem. Recently, sixteen
- 8:07Speaker 5: percent of bitcoin is held by institutions, which is up
- 8:10Speaker 5: from basically zero percent live cycle. We think bitcoin is
- 8:13Speaker 5: going to be increasingly less sensitive to and less likely
- 8:17Speaker 5: to have volatility, and over time that that, you know,
- 8:21Speaker 5: a thirty percent draw down is actually it will become
- 8:24Speaker 5: larger and larger, will feel larger and larger. Over time,
- 8:26Speaker 5: we'll see smaller and smaller drawdowns.
- 8:28Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, So you look at that, and then
- 8:30Speaker 1: you look at this right here, worst Q four for
- 8:34Speaker 1: bitcoin in seven years, as you can kind of see
- 8:37Speaker 1: the numbers right there, all the way back to our
- 8:39Speaker 1: best year in twenty twenty up one hundred and sixty
- 8:42Speaker 1: nine percent. So the cycle is is really at question here?
- 8:46Speaker 1: Does this just is this in a position where just
- 8:49Speaker 1: are we looking at a speed run in twenty twenty
- 8:51Speaker 1: six or did we just speed run a bull run
- 8:54Speaker 1: and now we've got a bear market brewing up for
- 8:56Speaker 1: twenty twenty six. I know your positions a little different
- 8:58Speaker 1: on this, So give me your analysis.
- 9:02Speaker 3: Yeah, So a big piece of my overall analysis goes
- 9:06Speaker 3: back to that housing market, the twenty year cycle, and
- 9:08Speaker 3: that we've covered once here before. Not the board, everybody
- 9:11Speaker 3: with it all back right now. But the idea behind
- 9:13Speaker 3: that is that twenty two thousand and eight was our
- 9:15Speaker 3: last you know, major high, and then since then we
- 9:18Speaker 3: have entered a new twenty year cycle in the housing market,
- 9:20Speaker 3: business cycle, et cetera. Crypto was born in that same timeframe,
- 9:23Speaker 3: So I've been kind of gauging crypto is actually printing
- 9:26Speaker 3: the first twenty year cycle. And yes it's been a compromise,
- 9:29Speaker 3: you know, comprised of several little four year.
- 9:31Speaker 2: One so far.
- 9:32Speaker 3: And the idea behind that is that twenty twenty six
- 9:34Speaker 3: to twenty twenty nine would be the area where we
- 9:36Speaker 3: actually get the next sizeable correction in the markets. Now,
- 9:39Speaker 3: key point of that is twenty twenty six is in
- 9:40Speaker 3: the mix there, so as like a cautionary year for me,
- 9:44Speaker 3: I still could see where twenty twenty six could be
- 9:46Speaker 3: actually a pretty big year to go forward here. The
- 9:49Speaker 3: key is here is just kind of being reactionary at
- 9:51Speaker 3: some of these levels. Sixty nine thousand dollars for me
- 9:53Speaker 3: for bitcoin is kind of that big line in the sand.
- 9:56Speaker 3: If we get under that level, I think that that's
- 9:58Speaker 3: and again that's twenty percent from where we are now,
- 10:00Speaker 3: so it's forty percent off the high whatever the case
- 10:03Speaker 3: may be. So it's a big area to just kind
- 10:05Speaker 3: of blindly wait for it to just decide if that's
- 10:07Speaker 3: going to be, you know, where you want to d
- 10:08Speaker 3: risk or anything.
- 10:09Speaker 2: So obviously you need to kind of.
- 10:11Speaker 3: Make take the best risk management for yourself. But so far, honestly,
- 10:15Speaker 3: I think we're just seeing a regular pullback here.
- 10:17Speaker 2: Again, to go back to the.
- 10:18Speaker 3: Chart, you know you're looking at, this is one little
- 10:22Speaker 3: piece and there's actually a bigger version of this that
- 10:24Speaker 3: I can take all the way back to twenty eighteen.
- 10:27Speaker 3: It aligns well with that eighty seven thousand dollars region.
- 10:30Speaker 3: But for now we're just coming down in normal senses.
- 10:33Speaker 2: This is also a.
- 10:34Speaker 3: Big region where I had noted for many basically the
- 10:37Speaker 3: whole year ever since we got out of this region,
- 10:39Speaker 3: is that if we're going to see the next sizeable
- 10:41Speaker 3: correction out of bitcoin, which means similar to what we
- 10:43Speaker 3: saw right here, sorry, similar to what we saw right
- 10:46Speaker 3: here at the inauguration day, similar to what we saw
- 10:49Speaker 3: in twenty twenty four, these thirty percent plus little pullbacks
- 10:52Speaker 3: that it was going to happen at one hundred and
- 10:53Speaker 3: thirty thousand. Now we topped at one twenty six, so
- 10:56Speaker 3: so far, nothing's out of the ordinary.
- 10:58Speaker 2: I know it's got.
- 10:58Speaker 3: People's nerves really rocky here, but to come down and
- 11:02Speaker 3: if we can see a little support down here, I'll
- 11:04Speaker 3: turn this off and I'll kind of show you the
- 11:06Speaker 3: little bullish outlook here that we have now. So I
- 11:10Speaker 3: was just looking at a bearish harmonic setup, which is
- 11:12Speaker 3: a sequence of fibonacci's and now sorry move that. Now,
- 11:16Speaker 3: this is a bullish setup that is not necessarily something
- 11:19Speaker 3: that's not that I'm anticipating it to complete for it
- 11:23Speaker 3: to be valid. This is actually a valid setup already.
- 11:26Speaker 3: So we have what's known as the hop down here,
- 11:28Speaker 3: which is an optimized area. So realistically this is really
- 11:31Speaker 3: extended right now. But if we can find support, so
- 11:34Speaker 3: if Bitcoin finds it's footing down here around eighty six
- 11:36Speaker 3: k again, this is more like a region. I'm not
- 11:39Speaker 3: going to give it an exact dollar, but if we
- 11:41Speaker 3: can really find some footing down in this region here,
- 11:43Speaker 3: this really sets us up to run it back again,
- 11:46Speaker 3: maybe either next coming weeks. Here, this is probably going
- 11:49Speaker 3: to take some time. This is a six month setup
- 11:51Speaker 3: that took place, so it's not going to be overnight
- 11:53Speaker 3: where we just kind of run it back, but this
- 11:55Speaker 3: could set us up for another run back to like
- 11:57Speaker 3: one hundred and nine. Realistically there's three of this, but
- 12:00Speaker 3: the main one being around this back of one hundred k.
- 12:03Speaker 3: So that's kind of the bullish outlook here as we
- 12:05Speaker 3: walk into it, not really breaking it down in the
- 12:07Speaker 3: sense of just blindly going with four years have been up.
- 12:11Speaker 3: It's completely down from here. We definitely have areas to
- 12:14Speaker 3: be aware of here. We're coming down into major supports
- 12:16Speaker 3: off of that major setup that we were looking at,
- 12:19Speaker 3: So you just kind of have to be a little
- 12:20Speaker 3: subjective here, a little open minded. But if that again,
- 12:24Speaker 3: if it's a place where if the market does come
- 12:26Speaker 3: down more because obviously nobody knows what it's going to do,
- 12:29Speaker 3: you've got to be able to manage for yourself. You
- 12:31Speaker 3: need a d risk a little now and see if
- 12:32Speaker 3: it's going to get a pushback up.
- 12:33Speaker 2: You still have skinning the game.
- 12:34Speaker 3: If it does, and if now you've got dry powder
- 12:36Speaker 3: on the side for a go lower, like that's just
- 12:38Speaker 3: the best case to.
- 12:38Speaker 2: Do at this point.
- 12:40Speaker 1: Coin based institutions have been selling for nineteen straight days
- 12:43Speaker 1: now no bounce until this recovers. Are you in agreement
- 12:46Speaker 1: with that the amount of institutional.
- 12:49Speaker 3: Self Yeah, I think that that's a really good signal there.
- 12:53Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a you know.
- 12:54Speaker 3: The only thing with that, of course, is that these
- 12:56Speaker 3: things get reported a little laggy, so of course the
- 12:59Speaker 3: abbounds could alread be underway by the time we get
- 13:01Speaker 3: that information. But yeah, I would say that that's probably
- 13:03Speaker 3: a clear sign there that we're looking for a bounce
- 13:06Speaker 3: in that as well as a bounce in the price action.
- 13:08Speaker 2: Also, if you look at this chart right here.
- 13:11Speaker 1: We put out a tweet this morning, but I want
- 13:12Speaker 1: to go to this chart, and you're going to notice
- 13:16Speaker 1: here that we are in these have In most cases
- 13:20Speaker 1: when we've seen these really inflow evacuations occur, we've had
- 13:27Speaker 1: reversals fairly good except for what we're seeing right now
- 13:30Speaker 1: in this consistency, especially on ibit. Do you think we're
- 13:36Speaker 1: in that kind of position right now where we're seeing
- 13:38Speaker 1: the outflows of bitcoin? I mean, even what was it
- 13:41Speaker 1: bonds even paying more than what an ETF on bitcoin
- 13:45Speaker 1: was paying. So are we at that fatigue point right
- 13:49Speaker 1: now with where bitcoin is in general?
- 13:54Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that again, we're coming into some really
- 13:56Speaker 3: big points of support for one on the chart. Fundamentally,
- 14:00Speaker 3: there's really nothing too crazy going on right now. That's
- 14:03Speaker 3: outside of just the four year cycle I guess would
- 14:06Speaker 3: be the only idea here.
- 14:07Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean.
- 14:08Speaker 3: We're down a substantial amount, which is so far the
- 14:11Speaker 3: entire bull run has been around the average that we
- 14:14Speaker 3: come down. Even if we go down to the true average,
- 14:16Speaker 3: it was about thirty three ish. That's about that eighty
- 14:18Speaker 3: two eighty three thousand dollars mark, so within this region,
- 14:21Speaker 3: and then of course you have like we're completely retracing
- 14:24Speaker 3: potentially down to these Tarra flows. Yeah, I think that
- 14:28Speaker 3: there's no question about that. This is definitely an area
- 14:32Speaker 3: compared to where we were that we could see some
- 14:34Speaker 3: fatigue come in potentially the bounce kind of come into
- 14:37Speaker 3: this region as well. So yeah, I would I would
- 14:40Speaker 3: totally agree that with that statement.
- 14:42Speaker 1: Well, and I think this would it's very possible. I
- 14:44Speaker 1: think that these ancient wallets will probably stop selling this,
- 14:49Speaker 1: especially if we get around eighty two, because at that
- 14:52Speaker 1: point it's probably like, hey, I'm going to wait this out.
- 14:54Speaker 1: I've waited this long, I'm looking for a next leg
- 14:56Speaker 1: up and maybe maybe I missed it. I won't say,
- 15:00Speaker 1: dare I say they round trip? But then the position
- 15:02Speaker 1: where they might be looking at because they're setting on
- 15:03Speaker 1: a thousand dollars bitcoin price right that.
- 15:08Speaker 2: Yeah, that'd be quite the round trip for all of us.
- 15:11Speaker 1: Yeah, let's go over to ETH real quick, because Eth
- 15:15Speaker 1: is now officially flipped Bitcoin in terms of share of
- 15:19Speaker 1: total supply held by Digital Asset Treasury. So dats are
- 15:23Speaker 1: now pushing and we have more Eth in these dats
- 15:27Speaker 1: now than Bitcoin holding and that's crazy when you think
- 15:31Speaker 1: about that. But you've got a lot there obviously with
- 15:35Speaker 1: L two's Dallas Foundations, everybody that's involved in this. When
- 15:39Speaker 1: you look at ethereum now sub three thousand as of today,
- 15:44Speaker 1: where do you think ETH could drop to? Because we're
- 15:46Speaker 1: looking for a zone where I would buy Eth again?
- 15:50Speaker 2: What would that be for you?
- 15:53Speaker 3: Yeah, So I wanted to bring up I think that
- 15:57Speaker 3: last time or the last big rally here as right
- 16:01Speaker 3: off the back of the Pectra upgrade, and I think
- 16:03Speaker 3: we have another one coming up here soon. And the
- 16:06Speaker 3: thing about that is is that where we were around
- 16:09Speaker 3: this region, there was a pretty decent little setup here
- 16:12Speaker 3: in play, and then of course we got the upgrade
- 16:14Speaker 3: basically right here at this little spike up. And currently
- 16:17Speaker 3: there's really nothing major in play as far as like
- 16:20Speaker 3: a huge bullish setup aside from just coming into some
- 16:22Speaker 3: major support. So now to your point, what is the
- 16:24Speaker 3: what are the next best areas to look for? One
- 16:27Speaker 3: of one area is always going to be that gold pocket,
- 16:30Speaker 3: which is a sim simple just fibonacci retlacement from low
- 16:33Speaker 3: to the high that's coming in right around this twenty
- 16:35Speaker 3: six hundred dollars. Also, you know, we're pretty much touching
- 16:39Speaker 3: around that region now this twenty eight ninety, so we're
- 16:41Speaker 3: coming back to this previous high. I would almost box
- 16:44Speaker 3: that region off as you know, a area of interest
- 16:46Speaker 3: as we're coming also with bitcoin down towards those you know,
- 16:49Speaker 3: key eighties. So where we are right now is probably
- 16:52Speaker 3: not the worst place on top of that, just looking
- 16:54Speaker 3: at if you're ever just not looking at a chart
- 16:56Speaker 3: and just in the business of buying a you know,
- 16:59Speaker 3: Mama always say when something drops thirty to forty percent,
- 17:02Speaker 3: you know, put a little risk on the table there.
- 17:04Speaker 3: So EITH is now down forty percent here. The other
- 17:08Speaker 3: area around this region that i'd look to is I
- 17:10Speaker 3: take a look at the overall year as far as
- 17:12Speaker 3: where we look for on volume would go. So coming
- 17:16Speaker 3: back to the beginning of this year, sorry dragging that
- 17:19Speaker 3: over there, we've got our point of control, which is
- 17:21Speaker 3: our highest traded area as well, that price is likely
- 17:24Speaker 3: to revisit if we're back in the range, which we
- 17:27Speaker 3: are very much so back in that region here you
- 17:29Speaker 3: can see pretty clearly we re entered it back test
- 17:32Speaker 3: and now we're down in this area. A couple of
- 17:34Speaker 3: weeks back when we were on here, I'd highlighted how
- 17:36Speaker 3: important the thirty three to thirty five hundred dollars level was,
- 17:39Speaker 3: and that was when we were basically just you know,
- 17:41Speaker 3: sandbagging right here and losing that has been really just
- 17:45Speaker 3: the line in the sand to initiate this downward move here.
- 17:49Speaker 2: We had a little support hopefully coming in around.
- 17:51Speaker 3: That thirty three which was our yearly open, so similar
- 17:53Speaker 3: to Bitcoin which just blew through it as well. So
- 17:55Speaker 3: again all gains erased for twenty twenty five, sadly.
- 17:58Speaker 2: But if we're looking for the next best.
- 18:00Speaker 3: Area currently where we are right now is a big
- 18:03Speaker 3: one down to about twenty five dollars on ETH.
- 18:07Speaker 1: Twenty five hundred target zone for ETH We're going to
- 18:10Speaker 1: keep an eye on that one. I also want to
- 18:13Speaker 1: talk about Polygon. We had sand Deep on here just
- 18:16Speaker 1: the other day. He said they had big announcements. One
- 18:20Speaker 1: of the announcements that they did during their devconnect was
- 18:23Speaker 1: MasterCard doing crypto Credential, which is a new way to
- 18:26Speaker 1: do self custody wallets. They also announced this deal with Revolute,
- 18:30Speaker 1: which is another big deal because Revolute's one of the
- 18:32Speaker 1: largest FinTechs in Europe around stable point payments, which ride
- 18:37Speaker 1: on Polygon, so that's a big advantage and they're going
- 18:40Speaker 1: to have some staking in there as well. Even with
- 18:43Speaker 1: all that news, Polygon did not move a minute. I
- 18:46Speaker 1: mean it's still I'm here on the daily chart right now.
- 18:49Speaker 1: This thing is still in a position to where it
- 18:51Speaker 1: is so depressed. Is there any hope for Polygon coming
- 18:54Speaker 1: off the floor here?
- 18:57Speaker 2: Yeah?
- 18:57Speaker 3: I was just taking a look at that as well,
- 18:58Speaker 3: and that in this case, this is one where you
- 19:02Speaker 3: really have to be a little defensive on currently, because
- 19:06Speaker 3: again we're in a place where you know, we really
- 19:08Speaker 3: got to pay attention then for Bitcoin, if all coins
- 19:11Speaker 3: are going to see any type of movement, obviously we
- 19:12Speaker 3: need to see some strength come out of there and
- 19:14Speaker 3: probably gone. Like I said, it's just at least on
- 19:16Speaker 3: the area I'm looking at. This is on the coin
- 19:18Speaker 3: base chart. I don't know if this is the all
- 19:19Speaker 3: time low or not, but it's basically making all time lows.
- 19:22Speaker 3: We wip down to that area I think on the
- 19:25Speaker 3: tenth YEP on the liquidation day, and then it just
- 19:27Speaker 3: slowly melted back down.
- 19:28Speaker 2: So right now, like good news or any news is
- 19:31Speaker 2: really not making a difference.
- 19:33Speaker 3: I would say, really, I'd like to see this, and
- 19:35Speaker 3: it's only you know, thirteen cents now, obviously we're making
- 19:38Speaker 3: new lows in this case. We want to see some
- 19:40Speaker 3: strength probably come back into this, So I'd say, you'd
- 19:43Speaker 3: really want to see us before you get too overly
- 19:45Speaker 3: involved with this at the moment, get back above that
- 19:48Speaker 3: fifteen cent mark, which is a little bit of a difference,
- 19:51Speaker 3: about an eight to ten percent you know area fro
- 19:53Speaker 3: where we are. The only reason I say that is
- 19:54Speaker 3: because now that we're below that, you've just lost you know,
- 19:57Speaker 3: it's just price discovery to the floor right now. So
- 20:00Speaker 3: we could go lower here, of course, so they get
- 20:02Speaker 3: any type of reversal and see any kind of strength
- 20:05Speaker 3: come in here. We'd want to get back above that
- 20:06Speaker 3: fifteen cents and then a lot of times what I
- 20:09Speaker 3: see with things like this one that we're just pretty
- 20:11Speaker 3: much ranging so heavily, even though we could deviate below
- 20:13Speaker 3: the lows here, if you do start getting back above
- 20:15Speaker 3: that area here, it really opens up a big move
- 20:17Speaker 3: back to the high side of the range, which is
- 20:19Speaker 3: about twenty nine cents. But ultimately we can get big
- 20:22Speaker 3: moves up to these point three eight twos. This is
- 20:24Speaker 3: the macro three eight two here, which if you look
- 20:27Speaker 3: at XRP Solana quant what was another one that theta changed?
- 20:33Speaker 3: Like even things that just burst up and then just
- 20:35Speaker 3: die off right away cro just recently did it. You
- 20:37Speaker 3: see a lot of coins bounce, and not even just
- 20:40Speaker 3: coin stocks anything, right, They usually bounce back up to
- 20:42Speaker 3: these point three a twos and then they even if
- 20:44Speaker 3: they're going to roll over again. It's a really big
- 20:47Speaker 3: area to be aware of. So I'd say fifteen cents
- 20:50Speaker 3: get back above. You have room back up to thirty
- 20:52Speaker 3: cents and then potential to run it to thirty eight
- 20:54Speaker 3: over time. But fifteen cents is the key here. You
- 20:58Speaker 3: just got to see us get back above.
- 21:00Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the problem there of course is if
- 21:03Speaker 1: we have all this bullish news. Timing wise, this was
- 21:07Speaker 1: just not a good one I think for Polygon in general.
- 21:09Speaker 1: And you know Solana, they've got breakpoin coming up in December.
- 21:12Speaker 1: I mean, we could have one of the most depressing
- 21:14Speaker 1: Decembers in a while, which again would not be which
- 21:18Speaker 1: would not be good timing for Solana. You mentioned XRP.
- 21:22Speaker 1: XRP up two hundred and fifty percent on the year.
- 21:25Speaker 1: If you look at where they were this time last
- 21:28Speaker 1: year in November to where they are now, and now
- 21:32Speaker 1: it's defending that two dollars point, which is a very
- 21:36Speaker 1: very big defense area. Do you think XRP can hold
- 21:38Speaker 1: this two dollars zone.
- 21:42Speaker 2: Let's take a peek.
- 21:45Speaker 3: So, yeah, you know XRP oddly enough probably, if not
- 21:50Speaker 3: oddly enough, I think, besides Bitcoin, probably one of the
- 21:52Speaker 3: number one movers of the cycle, if you're going to
- 21:55Speaker 3: look at it that way, right, So since last year
- 21:57Speaker 3: up seven almost seven hundred percent. The thing is here,
- 21:59Speaker 3: we we stayed down here so long, or we were
- 22:03Speaker 3: ranging in this region down so long that a burst
- 22:06Speaker 3: up like this usually almost like this, when you get
- 22:08Speaker 3: this big burst up and it just gets sold right
- 22:10Speaker 3: back into a lot of times you would get something
- 22:13Speaker 3: along those lines and something that's not you know, holding
- 22:16Speaker 3: as strong as you'd like to see. So for me,
- 22:17Speaker 3: XRP has been holding pretty good. It's not to say
- 22:20Speaker 3: that it's going to continue, but it's pretty much just
- 22:23Speaker 3: had this huge range that's sat in here. Again, this
- 22:26Speaker 3: is based on volume here. The only thing that you know,
- 22:29Speaker 3: you don't really want to see is how much volume
- 22:31Speaker 3: is coming in at the bottom here, because a lot
- 22:33Speaker 3: of times that does indicate that we're going to see
- 22:35Speaker 3: continuation back down to the downside. So it's really just
- 22:39Speaker 3: going to come down to some reactionary basis here as
- 22:42Speaker 3: well as Bitcoin paying attention to see if we do
- 22:44Speaker 3: get any type of strength coming in there. But ultimately,
- 22:47Speaker 3: aside from that, just without looking at anything aside from
- 22:49Speaker 3: just the information at hand, we're just currently trading back
- 22:51Speaker 3: down at the low end of this range, which is
- 22:53Speaker 3: right on the money, as you just said about two dollars.
- 22:57Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean, I feel like as long as
- 22:59Speaker 3: two dollars is whole and really this level I have
- 23:01Speaker 3: marked out that I've had for a while, this one
- 23:03Speaker 3: seventy nine, one seventy nine, two dollars that's my big
- 23:05Speaker 3: key region. If we start to live below that, I
- 23:07Speaker 3: would say that that's where XRP really starts looking weaker
- 23:10Speaker 3: from where we are currently Otherwise low end of the
- 23:13Speaker 3: range areas you want to look to put on some risk. Again,
- 23:16Speaker 3: we're looking at the whole market here at this point,
- 23:18Speaker 3: so it's just something you got to kind of be
- 23:19Speaker 3: able to manage along the way. If we were to
- 23:22Speaker 3: get a push up out of here, still looking at
- 23:25Speaker 3: this trend based gold pocket and then potential. I know
- 23:28Speaker 3: people don't like to hear it when we're on down days,
- 23:30Speaker 3: but when we're here at supports, when you got to
- 23:32Speaker 3: look for the potential where we can get to and
- 23:34Speaker 3: be able to again address risk accordingly, and if we
- 23:37Speaker 3: were to launch up out of this region start finding
- 23:39Speaker 3: our legs here, I think four forty is still something
- 23:41Speaker 3: that we could see on an XRP.
- 23:43Speaker 1: There you go, guys, so keep an eye on that one.
- 23:46Speaker 1: UNISWAP is another one that we're watching also after huge
- 23:50Speaker 1: news just amitted the unification proposal looks like it's going
- 23:54Speaker 1: to pass. We think this is coming through. This is
- 23:57Speaker 1: going to change everything for UNIEWAP. When you look at
- 24:00Speaker 1: uniswap right now, Paul, do you think this is a
- 24:02Speaker 1: good trade?
- 24:06Speaker 2: Hm, let's tick a peak.
- 24:10Speaker 3: So unie swap is again something we've what I just
- 24:14Speaker 3: pointed out with whatever when we were just looking at
- 24:17Speaker 3: a second ago that three eight two. This is a
- 24:18Speaker 3: perfect example where you get that huge burst up and
- 24:20Speaker 3: even if it gives it all right back. That is
- 24:23Speaker 3: something we saw on uniswap back in December of last year.
- 24:26Speaker 3: But anyhow, currently we've been ranging around this region on
- 24:29Speaker 3: the news the other day when I believe that first
- 24:32Speaker 3: hit because I saw you post about it specifically, we
- 24:34Speaker 3: ran it up again. So similar to what we're just
- 24:36Speaker 3: looking at on XRP. When you're down at the low
- 24:38Speaker 3: end of the range, you got to consider, you know,
- 24:40Speaker 3: putting on some risk, ran it right to the high,
- 24:42Speaker 3: got the rejection here, and now we're just kind of
- 24:44Speaker 3: coasting around the middle here. So technically speaking, you know,
- 24:48Speaker 3: it's right in the middle of a range, so it's
- 24:50Speaker 3: a hard What I mean by that is, you know,
- 24:53Speaker 3: we have a fifty to fifty chance of running it
- 24:54Speaker 3: back up or running it back down, So it's not
- 24:56Speaker 3: the best place to be as far as looking at
- 24:58Speaker 3: it in that sense where we could go from here,
- 25:02Speaker 3: even if we did just DCA, if it did start
- 25:04Speaker 3: coming down, you start dollar cost averaging.
- 25:06Speaker 2: Here. Let's just see where a local gold pocket is.
- 25:09Speaker 3: It's actually right where we are right now, So that
- 25:12Speaker 3: would be one thing to kind of keep in mind,
- 25:13Speaker 3: so if you're going to have any type of position there.
- 25:16Speaker 3: But we've also been ranging really tightly down here as well.
- 25:18Speaker 3: So if we did see a sizeable move out of
- 25:21Speaker 3: the market, let's just assume that you know, Bitcoin recovers
- 25:24Speaker 3: a bit here and eth and everything, we get that
- 25:26Speaker 3: push up here, there is a slew of levels above
- 25:30Speaker 3: us that I think unicewap could get to. And again
- 25:33Speaker 3: I reference like cro had just recently did this and
- 25:37Speaker 3: we had this huge range and then you get a
- 25:38Speaker 3: breakout and you get to these levels in a hurry.
- 25:40Speaker 3: So it's not a guarantee by any means, but when
- 25:42Speaker 3: I look for things to diversify put on a little
- 25:44Speaker 3: bit of risk, this probably would be actually one that
- 25:46Speaker 3: I would consider, especially with some of the fundamentals that
- 25:49Speaker 3: are going on as well.
- 25:50Speaker 1: Right, So yeah, for sure, I mean, once they flip
- 25:53Speaker 1: this switch, we are going to see some I think,
- 25:55Speaker 1: you know, in the long term which I think a
- 25:57Speaker 1: lot of people look at for UNISWAP. They're control one
- 26:00Speaker 1: within the eth ecosystem as a beta play, and the
- 26:03Speaker 1: fact that it is going to be a power player
- 26:06Speaker 1: in DeFi without a doubt. Okay, so I want to go.
- 26:09Speaker 1: I want to end up here with Avalanche and Suite.
- 26:12Speaker 1: All right, Avalanche, many people would say very undervalued right now.
- 26:17Speaker 1: Avax kind of a I would say, a favorite of
- 26:21Speaker 1: our channel, and then of course they just kind of
- 26:24Speaker 1: went a little bit dormant during a very critical time
- 26:27Speaker 1: this year, and that was during the run up of
- 26:29Speaker 1: bitcoin to one twenty six. We never saw Avalanche really
- 26:32Speaker 1: perform off that sixty five if you had to buy
- 26:35Speaker 1: an asset. Because there's a lot of people, I think
- 26:37Speaker 1: investors right now that are maybe in the s and
- 26:41Speaker 1: P five hundred, and they're saying the same thing. They think, Okay,
- 26:43Speaker 1: this might be the top. I'm going to take a
- 26:45Speaker 1: little off the table. I'm going to go to dollars okay,
- 26:47Speaker 1: or I'm going to go to whatever money market. But
- 26:51Speaker 1: I'm looking at the next option here, and it might
- 26:54Speaker 1: be some of these risk assets over in crypto Avax.
- 26:57Speaker 1: We could be in the right position for some of
- 27:00Speaker 1: those investors that are looking for this next bull cycle
- 27:04Speaker 1: coming out of crypto, Which one of those would you
- 27:06Speaker 1: go with right now?
- 27:10Speaker 2: Avalanche or avalanche or suite.
- 27:13Speaker 3: Okay, let's take a look at both, and then I'll
- 27:15Speaker 3: kind of come to the conclusion. I also just wanted
- 27:16Speaker 3: to point out again that three eight to two meter
- 27:18Speaker 3: type of move that we see all the time just
- 27:21Speaker 3: happened on here as well. Back in Again, this is
- 27:22Speaker 3: a higher timeframe, but just pointing out the examples there. Yeah,
- 27:26Speaker 3: I mean, not all time lows by any means that
- 27:29Speaker 3: we've seen, you know, eight dollars or less.
- 27:32Speaker 2: Obviously we back in the day, but we are definitely
- 27:34Speaker 2: coming in.
- 27:35Speaker 3: You know, we're definitely on the floor, similar to what
- 27:37Speaker 3: you were just pointing out with Paul. And to me,
- 27:41Speaker 3: it's again it's it's taking into account the entire market
- 27:44Speaker 3: at this current state, whereas it bitcoin's going to head lower.
- 27:47Speaker 3: You have to kind of keep all that in your
- 27:49Speaker 3: back of your mind. But I will point out that
- 27:52Speaker 3: with bitcoin falling recently, I know we've had the big
- 27:54Speaker 3: drop from UH one t six down to one hundred,
- 27:58Speaker 3: and then we had basically everything on that and then
- 28:00Speaker 3: recently that the alquins have been holding up pretty resiliently
- 28:04Speaker 3: in my opinion, compared because we've had another sizeable drop,
- 28:07Speaker 3: so avalanche coming down in these areas now which we're
- 28:09Speaker 3: not completely melting down, and Bitcoin potentially coming into support.
- 28:13Speaker 3: I personally the way I like to invest, especially with
- 28:16Speaker 3: my longer term positions, I do look for things like
- 28:18Speaker 3: this again, something that's not popped, you know, one of
- 28:21Speaker 3: the ones that has not maybe I most.
- 28:23Speaker 2: Got the most attention at the time.
- 28:25Speaker 3: It's a little bit of a risk here, as everything's
- 28:27Speaker 3: always a risk of course, but yeah, I mean this
- 28:30Speaker 3: is something that easily I would be willing to put
- 28:33Speaker 3: on risk here because it is basically at the lows.
- 28:35Speaker 3: So that's that's my risk profile, is that I will
- 28:38Speaker 3: look for things at the lows and again maybe look
- 28:41Speaker 3: for a bit of strength here. If I was to
- 28:43Speaker 3: look for the idea similar to where we were looking
- 28:45Speaker 3: at Polygon, I believe, or poly market when we need
- 28:49Speaker 3: to flip this fourteen dollars again to kind of see
- 28:52Speaker 3: any kind of strength come back in. But right now
- 28:53Speaker 3: we're undervalued, as you said, you're deviating a little bit
- 28:56Speaker 3: below here. You could put on a little risk here
- 28:58Speaker 3: and then of course, if it gets lower, decide you
- 29:00Speaker 3: want to do from there, but.
- 29:01Speaker 2: Flip fourteen dollars.
- 29:02Speaker 3: However, and I think we have a sizeable move and
- 29:05Speaker 3: I still stick to the idea that again similar to
- 29:09Speaker 3: what we were just looking at a second ago as well.
- 29:11Speaker 2: I think it was uniswap.
- 29:13Speaker 3: We have sizeable areas the back above here and then
- 29:15Speaker 3: just not even to get in a price discovery just
- 29:18Speaker 3: to recover some of this ground here on a huge
- 29:22Speaker 3: multi year just ranging activity avalanche again on the floor.
- 29:27Speaker 3: Definitely would be something sizable here that we could get
- 29:29Speaker 3: into in the in the sense of the market moving
- 29:32Speaker 3: to the upside.
- 29:33Speaker 2: Let's take a look at Suey as well.
- 29:36Speaker 3: Suey's just kind of melting down here a bit with
- 29:38Speaker 3: everything else.
- 29:40Speaker 2: Sue's a newer project, just soon's the newer yeah, melting Sue's.
- 29:46Speaker 3: The newer project of the two though, And with that
- 29:49Speaker 3: is going to come more risk, right because we don't
- 29:52Speaker 3: have as much information, as much data and the things
- 29:54Speaker 3: they go along with that. But as anything, we've got
- 29:57Speaker 3: the risk at hand, so we've lost this big range.
- 29:59Speaker 3: I'm even just gonn take this off, not even worth
- 30:01Speaker 3: looking at anymore, all right, We've got some lows here
- 30:03Speaker 3: we want to see recovered, but ultimately I've got one
- 30:07Speaker 3: other level here on Sue and now. I would imagine
- 30:09Speaker 3: if we flew all the way down to this, we'd
- 30:11Speaker 3: have bigger problems in the market, because that's about a
- 30:13Speaker 3: forty four percent drop. But for me, if I had
- 30:16Speaker 3: a stink bid and I really wanted to just get
- 30:18Speaker 3: in on some great opportunity on SUI would be down
- 30:21Speaker 3: there about eighty cents.
- 30:22Speaker 2: Otherwise where we are now.
- 30:24Speaker 3: Again, Mom always said, if something's down seventy two percent,
- 30:29Speaker 3: consider getting in, I guess, or putting on some risk. Yeah,
- 30:33Speaker 3: I'd probably say we're in a little bit of limbo
- 30:34Speaker 3: with Suey, so I'd really like to recover this.
- 30:37Speaker 2: One seven yeah.
- 30:38Speaker 3: And then with Avalanche Okay, yeah, I'd go with both,
- 30:44Speaker 3: honestly a little bit, but I'd probably choose Avalanche.
- 30:46Speaker 1: Yeah, leverage on each. I mean, there's an opportunity there,
- 30:49Speaker 1: and I think this will be the intriguing part of this, Guys.
- 30:52Speaker 1: We are going to either and I think this has
- 30:54Speaker 1: always been the question is whether or not we see
- 30:57Speaker 1: further bleed on the all coins. With Bitcoin now polamenting
- 31:02Speaker 1: under eighty nine k again as we're recording, so hitting
- 31:05Speaker 1: eighty eight, so we continue to see this strength in
- 31:08Speaker 1: pushing down around all of this. I still think the
- 31:11Speaker 1: FED is going to be the savior for this as
- 31:14Speaker 1: we start to see indicators and also maybe to a
- 31:16Speaker 1: certain extent some QI you know coming in as well,
- 31:20Speaker 1: which could you know we'll know here, Yeah, we'll here.
- 31:23Speaker 1: We'll going to know in eleven days, you know, because
- 31:25Speaker 1: that's when we are done on the balance sheet for
- 31:28Speaker 1: the FED. Hey, Paul, it's been good having you on today.
- 31:31Speaker 1: We'll definitely get you back in as we get into
- 31:33Speaker 1: December because there could be some interesting plays to make
- 31:36Speaker 1: as we start to go into next year for twenty
- 31:40Speaker 1: twenty six. So thanks for coming in. We appreciate it.
- 31:43Speaker 2: Pleasure, Paul. Look, you Ford the next one.
- 31:45Speaker 1: All right, So you guys know what to do. If
- 31:47Speaker 1: you're not in the diamond circle, make sure and get
- 31:49Speaker 1: in on that. It is a great place to get
- 31:50Speaker 1: additional content. I know there's a lot of new viewers,
- 31:54Speaker 1: and I think we are seeing a rotation out of
- 31:56Speaker 1: the S and P five hundred investors who are now
- 31:59Speaker 1: starting to take a look at crypto with all these
- 32:01Speaker 1: depleted levels. As an opportunity. So I know you guys
- 32:05Speaker 1: are out there, so thanks for coming in. If you're
- 32:07Speaker 1: not following me on X, do that as well. It's
- 32:09Speaker 1: just at Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time right
- 32:11Speaker 1: here on The Paul Baron Show.