Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Santa Rally Cancelled?📉Technical Analysis with Evan Aldo

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Santa Rally Cancelled?📉Technical Analysis with Evan Aldo · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Santa Rally. Can it happen or is it going to
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: be canceled by the Grinch? Today we'll break it down
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: for you. Let's just jump right in. I want to
• 0:07
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• 0:39
  Speaker 1: can get some XRP by just spinning a little. Let's
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: get into it today. I want to bring in mister
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Evan Aldough. As you guys know, Evan is a frequent
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: here on the channel.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: How are you doing great? Paul, always great.
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: I mean the market spin a little bit boring, but
• 0:54
  Speaker 3: maybe we'll continue the upward rally hopefully.
• 0:57
  Speaker 4: So.
• 0:57
  Speaker 5: Yeah, you're back in the States.
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: Right now, right, I'm back in the frigid Northeast. Man,
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: it's cold.
• 1:05
  Speaker 5: Well, you know, listen.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: If you guys are following event over on YouTube, make
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: sure and check him out over there, Evan Aldo on YouTube.
• 1:12
  Speaker 5: You can get all of his breakdowns. He does a
• 1:14
  Speaker 5: course over there. He's got a lot of insights.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: We usually drop a link also, so check that out,
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: subscribe telling him we sent you over to that. Let's
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: get into a few topics today. One of the things
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: I don't like is the continuation of bad news coming
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: out of DC, and of course today is no different.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: We have now the Senate rejecting the dueling healthcare bills. Basically,
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: what this means to everyone is it all but guarantees
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: that Obamacare subsidies used by more than twenty million Americans
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: is going to lapse at the end of the year.
• 1:46
  Speaker 5: So that's the problem.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: This is basically just a tit for tat I think
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: between the Republicans and the Democrats. It continues to put
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: some pressure on the market. My concern is it causing
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: the economy to start to falter a little bit. When
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: you think about the economy and who's investing right now,
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: what's your take on it.
• 2:07
  Speaker 5: Do you feel like we.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: Are in a bullish phase or is it just an
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: accumulation down part of the market.
• 2:13
  Speaker 5: Where would you position this, Evan, I.
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: Think we're in more of those typical mid year cycles,
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: you know, call it what you want. I think it's
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: going to be economically a bit weak for the next
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: four to six months. Probably not economically weak enough to
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: really crash things, but I would estimate a ten to
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: fifteen percent pullback for the S and P five hundred.
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: And then you got the you know, news like this,
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: which probably would help out the Democrats more, which would
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: make sense when the normal pattern usually the Democrats, you know,
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: the opposite party does pretty well in the midterm elections. So,
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: you know, it kind of looks typical of history. We'll
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: see what happens with those subsidies. I don't I haven't
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: followed it too much, but maybe they'll come to an
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: agreement or something. But I don't see there's a way
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: where Republicans are keeping the house, you know, with how
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: things look right now.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's a bit of a challenge overall. You
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: also have another thing that's coming up here in January,
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: which is possibly another government shutdown. This would be hideous,
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: even though it did drop a little bit over the
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: last little bit since yesterday it was at forty one
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: percent that is now dipped down to thirty four thirty
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: five percent on poly market holding right now in terms
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: of a government shutdown, So maybe there is something brewing
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: in DC that insiders understand and have.
• 3:27
  Speaker 5: Reduced the possibility.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: How much do you think that will hurt the market,
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: because last time it happened it did not help crypto.
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it probably in your typical bear market year,
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: combined with most likely FED pause in January, Yeah, I
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: would guess it would probably you know, coincide with more
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: of your typical bear market, probably would hurt that and
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: P five hunder probably would hurt NASDAC, probably would hurt
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: Bitcoin and etheroreum. Unfortunately. However, you know, if bick one
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: could go down, you know some big targets fifty k,
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: sixty k, even somewhere in the forty ks. That's a
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: rare opportunity, tunity, generational, you know, buying areas that you
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: can only get every so often.
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: So you know, with Blood Loved.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: We got Well, we're going to talk about bitcoin in
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: a second. So you're telling me, forty fifty.
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: Or fifty K forty to sixty would be my range.
• 4:15
  Speaker 5: Jeff, all right, we got to talk about that.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: The other thing that happened this week, of course, is
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: federal reserve began. It's recently announced purchase of US Treasury bills,
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: the first forty billion. This is going to be done
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: over the next thirty days. Powell confirmed this calls it
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: reserve management. This is pretty aggressive reserve management considering. And
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: if you look at this, mini analysts still believe this
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: is soft QE, stealth QE all that it's still QE
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: to a certain extent, but we aren't seeing the trigger QI,
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: which is usually one hundred billion plus in these cycles.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: Do you think that's what it's going to take before
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: we see some risk asset movement?
• 4:54
  Speaker 5: Right now?
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: If I had a guess, yes, I mean the last
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: time you ended QT it took like what it was
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: it was August, around August to twenty nineteen, and then
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: if you don't count pandemic, it still was about a
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: six month five six month bear market. So if you're
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: looking at that, it would probably bring us into May,
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: which also coincides with I think when the odds are
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: more likely that you would see another raycut and the
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: new FED share come in. So that's that's the most
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: obvious path I would guess.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: So yeah, for sure, I want to go into some predictions.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Then I want to get your predictions for twenty twenty six.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: Here's Tom Lee's predictions.
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: Take a look, Well, we're three years of twenty percent
• 5:32
  Speaker 4: gains because the SMP probably closes seven thousand or so
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: this year, and so I think there's a deceleration of
• 5:38
  Speaker 4: what the market can do next year. But that ten percent,
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: I think belies what will be a very turbulent year,
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: similar to this year where this year we had tariffs
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: and sort of a FED that became hawkish again. Next
• 5:53
  Speaker 4: year is a year where we have a Supreme Court
• 5:56
  Speaker 4: potentially overturning tariffs, and then a new FED which will
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: be tested. So I think we could have what looks
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: like a bear market in twenty twenty six.
• 6:04
  Speaker 6: We exit strong a cut into a strengthening economy. Though,
• 6:09
  Speaker 6: I mean, at the end of the day, that supersedes everything.
• 6:11
  Speaker 6: Isn't that partly what the last couple of days yesterday
• 6:15
  Speaker 6: and today are about.
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean this was a in my mind, even
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: though people positioned it as a hawkish cut. It's actually
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: quite bullish for stocks because the FED again is now
• 6:27
  Speaker 4: weighing the downside risk to the economy, which is the
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: FED put coming back into play. Plus as you know,
• 6:32
  Speaker 4: QT ended and even though it's not officially QE, it's
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: the absence of tightening, which is QI. But in our
• 6:41
  Speaker 4: client conversations, people are more bearish now because tech is stalling,
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: and it's in the backdrop of seventy five percent of
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: the weeks this year, sentiment on AII has been negative.
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: It is only something you see in the middle of
• 6:55
  Speaker 4: a bear market. So I think people are sort of
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: entrenched in their bearishness even as we exit strong and
• 7:01
  Speaker 4: I think that carries into next year.
• 7:03
  Speaker 6: Man, I mean, I don't know who you're talking to.
• 7:06
  Speaker 6: I feel like it's hard to find people who are barrassed, all.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: Right, So to his point, a little bit sideways. I'm
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: just looking at the S and P right now. That
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: would be a sideways chop zone if we went all
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: the way into December of next year and only be
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: at a ten percent. So this could be one of
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: these zones that we've seen before. If you kind of
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: compare what happened right here in twenty twenty one, where
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: we had that zip zone. Be course, that was influenced
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: by something else. What is your anticipation of twenty twenty six,
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: Give me one prediction.
• 7:39
  Speaker 5: One prediction, avan, come.
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: On, ten to fifteen percent correction in the first half
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: most likely. You know those peaks that we saw at
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: the end of twenty twenty four. I think you can
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: retest them at some point, as you commonly do. So yeah,
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: ten to fifteen percent drop down. So think of a
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: much less intense version of twenty twenty two.
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: Be half as bad as that, I would guess.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, well that would be critical for risk assets.
• 8:08
  Speaker 5: This, of course could.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: Push bitcoin into a zone that many people are wondering,
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: what will happen when it goes into the no fly zone,
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: which is really below sailor cell point. That's the no
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: fly zone, guys. So let's go to the chart on bitcoin. Evan,
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: tell me the track that you think bitcoin takes in
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty six.
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: So, yeah, the first thing, let's look at right here
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: in bitcoin. You got your deep anchor wave that you
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: can confirmed on the sixth day, and it looks pretty
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: similar with your money flow too. I should say, you
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: know your money flow going from green to red right here.
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: Last time that happened was January of twenty two. Every
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: bear market bottomed out quicker than the previous one, which
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: is good for us.
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: You don't have to wait as long.
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: See, you had this drop down and then you had
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: a nice recovery upward. You're very choppy for a few months,
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: and then you know, you came you finally came downward.
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: And I do think that, you know, you could do
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: something like this. We're in a more lower trading volume time.
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: You could be kind of choppy potentially until the next
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: f m C meeting, you know, at the end of
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: January maybe, And I do think you got a good
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: shot of continuing forward. You know, this is more short
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: term continuing forward, you know, maybe all the way up
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: to one o eight one oh nine K. This is
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: if you can break above one o eight K, you know,
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: get up to one fifteen one six of these areas,
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: I would turn more bullish, and I don't mind getting
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: back in at these areas in anticipation for super cycle
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty K. But until then, I don't
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: think that's the likelihood. I think the likelihood is more
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: of something like this, you come back down and then
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: you finally get down to these points. So you have
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: one technical tariat here if we just do a very
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: simple kind of technical tariot kind of from these highs
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: to these lows right here, if you break and lose
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: that area, a technical target around around fifty five sixty
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: K those areas, so that would be kind of you know, Unford.
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: I know people are probably gonna get mad two barish,
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: but that would be kind of a high point, you know,
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: getting down to kind of those areas and then you
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: know it's always not as bad. So look at the
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: you know, bear mark that was seventy six percent down.
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: I would guess something with a six in front of
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: it would be your low in the sex bear market.
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: So that would be forty eight K. Maybe if things
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: get really bad down to like high thirties or something.
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: I don't really see going under forty K, and I
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: do think you got a shot at holding high fifties
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: holding sixty K, So that would be my educated guess here,
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: That would be my prediction somewhere right here. I think
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: anything below sixty K, or anything at sixty K is
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: a pretty rare, good, good buying opportunity because I'm in
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: anticipation that you can get up to at least, you know,
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty k, two hunderd k by the
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: end of the decade, so that would be really good.
• 10:36
  Speaker 5: Okay, two things there.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go the flip side of that a
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: little bit more conservative on the twenty twenty six prediction.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: I don't think bitcoin breaches the sixty K mark. I
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: don't think I think that's the line in the sand
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: for it, mainly because of the institutional introduction what we'll
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: see most likely happen on Wall Street and also traditional investors.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: I think we'll start coming in to the market because
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: of Wall Street positioning. And you know, I'll explain why
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: I think that here in a minute. But when you
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: look at it, because you also mentioned there that you
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: thought if we did get a supercycle run, you wouldn't
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: go in on bitcoin until one fifteen.
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: Is that right around there? Yeah?
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: I mean if you could hold one I mean, if
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: you could hold one ten, let's say, or one oh eight,
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: you know that big area for you know, a couple
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: of weeks, two weeks, and then get up to one fifteen,
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: I think that you would give the momentum to go
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: up to one thirty one fifty, you know, new all
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: time highs. But until then, my case would be more
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: likely that you would continue bearish and hit loer.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: All right, so here we are. Let's go ahead and
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: get your prediction for the end of the year. Santa
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Rally or no Santa Rally. It is December twelfth, we're
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: recording this Santa Rally for Christmas. Do I get a
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: lump of coal or do I get bitcoin back at all?
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: Let's go ca it Santa Rally oneaway, k Paula Santa.
• 11:57
  Speaker 5: Right there, you go. I like it. Evan is for
• 12:00
  Speaker 5: the end of the year.
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: Maybe it's till January. Yeah, give it, give it till January.
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: Chinese stick Chinese Chinese.
• 12:07
  Speaker 5: That's that's still a center rally. I'm gonna take it.
• 12:09
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna take it.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: We could put Santa Claus on the thumb for sure
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: on that statement. Let's talk about eth for a second.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: Uh eastpot ETFs now showing first signs of life after
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: a little bit of outflows, modest inflows starting to return
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: and kind of see the chart there, I'll kind of
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: zoom in on that for you guys. And maybe this
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: is another little uptick on Ethereum. I still think eth
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: is the one to outperform here in terms of up
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: against bitcoin. How would you play Ethereum right now, Evan,
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: when you look at the chart.
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so one hundred percent should likely outperform Bitcoin because
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: of monetary policy like it did in twenty eighteen. And
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: now if you look at the chart here, Ethereum, you know,
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: very similar to Bitcoin in a lot of ways. The first
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: thing I would really want to look at here is
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: your weekly right here, and you see this nice anchor
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: wave right here, very similar to this area. So you
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: got your anchor wave back in where was it, February
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: of twenty two? Rite that one and you came up
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: a little bit. Now here's the scary part, but not
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: too bad. You came up a little bit here and
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: then you came back down. So if we do that situation,
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: we would reject from like thirty five potentially, and then
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: you know, reject from as we did, we'd may come
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: back down make a higher low unto the end of
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: the year. So I guess that's your opposite your Santa rally,
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: It's hard to say. And then you'd come back up
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: to thirty seven somewhere around there in January, probably by
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: the next FEO of OMC meeting, and then from there
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: you would unfortunately come down for a few months down
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: to two k or something like that.
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: Running you, I would remain I would remain bullish.
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: I would remain bullish as long as we can hold
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: as long as we can make a higher low here,
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: and that would be the last thing.
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: I'll stay quickly here.
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: You know, something with a six in front of it,
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: I would guess is what you would end up with ether,
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: and this it could outperform Bitcoin. I mean, maybe this
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: whole bottom out of two k in May before Bitcoin
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: bottoms out like what happened in twenty twenty two.
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: So you keep that in mind. That's possible too, Okay.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: From what I'm hearing though, and what you're showing me
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: is that Tom Lee's prediction of a seven thousand dollars
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: ethereum in January is off the table?
• 14:17
  Speaker 5: Is that right?
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: January twenty twenty nine, or.
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: I think his predictions for add two years to his predictions,
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: then you'd be two to three.
• 14:29
  Speaker 5: Okay, all right, well, there you go.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: Tom Lee's has been dissed by Evan today.
• 14:34
  Speaker 5: I got it.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: No seven thousand, and of course, if you look at
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: the poll today, we've got Eth has been out performing
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin for several weeks. Will Ethereum reach all time highs
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: before Bitcoin does? Let me ask you that, would you
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: agree with that poll? Fifty six percent says Eth all
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: time high before Bitcoin hits it's all time high.
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: Uh, that's probably a year or two away. Yeah, you
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: got a good shot. Yeah, it's a good question.
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: Man, I don't know.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: Probably, well, fifty six percent says yes at least on
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: that poll.
• 15:07
  Speaker 5: All right, Well, that's good.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's interesting that you're getting a little bit
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: more bearish here, Evan. Going into twenty twenty six with
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: all this news, I mean, we're going to possibly see QE.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: You might see a market structure bill. It's possible we
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: could see all sorts of economic recovery writing the ship,
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: especially around jobs, which is the thing I'm worried about most.
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: Mostly the concern I have is still going to be
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: sticking around around Q one and Q two if jobs
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: continue to be very slow, and then the injection of
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: what we're seeing in terms of AI job pressure, which
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: is real, it's happening out there right now. But there
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: are some light spots out there. I was listening to
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: a couple of job analysts that says, hey, there's a
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: few spots within certain sectors that are starting to grow
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: that might be an indicator that we could be coming
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: out of this.
• 15:57
  Speaker 5: The S and P though.
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: Here it is again officially posting its high close in history.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: This is this is ridiculous plus forty two percent since
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: the April twenty twenty five bottom right there. Man, if
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: you're playing the S and P, you look like a
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: hero to.
• 16:14
  Speaker 5: Your investors right now. This is crazy. Where do you
• 16:18
  Speaker 5: think this is?
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: There is one of them? Yeah, No, I mean S
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: and P five five. I think we're getting towards a top.
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: Let me show you the chart on SMP five hundred.
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: Look to get that up. So yeah, I mean.
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: Overall, I mean you could come up a little bit more.
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: I do think you may.
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: I mean my long term perspectives for this, really, you know,
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: long term perspectus is you'll hop out sometime before the
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: end of this decade. But more of the less less
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: crazy long term perspectives. You will see some type of
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: drop down at some point in twenty twenty six, I believe,
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: and when you look at some of these higher time frames.
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: I mean you got bare divs kind of forming. This
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: looks like a little bit more continuation, but when you
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: really you know, you're three week that's a bare div.
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: I mean it does look very overheated here. And then
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: once your monthly gives you that bear dip, you probably
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: will see some type of pull back there. And I
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: think the big point, big line in the sand, is
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: around six hundred, and that would be your thirteen percent
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: correction that year in that kind of big area.
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: See these two peaks.
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: Price always loves to go back to these like previous
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: peaks right here. That's like a big thing that you
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: see for every asset in general. So I would guess
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: something like this, you know, into the first half of
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: twenty twenty six, potentially into let's say summer October latest
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: or something like that. But this would be a really
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: good zone around six hundred, you know, that kind of pullback.
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: So I think you need to have a pullback. That's
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: what I will say here. I think you need if
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: we kind of a.
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: If we see a pullback there on the S and
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: P and you're looking, I'm just wondering, is gold and
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: silver Are gold and silver starting to manifest what's what
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: could be happening here? Because you've got gold spiking? I think,
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: did it hit it? No, not quite, It didn't hit
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: it quite. It was forty three fifty five today on
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: the trading day. It's holding it forty three right now
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: as we record over up and then of course it
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: reversed back down after it spiked to another all time
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: high at sixty four, coming back down here to where
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: it's trading right now about sixty bucks on the low,
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: spiking down, wiking down at right now holding a sixty
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: one ninety two. Let me ask you, Evan, what are
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: you because I feel like you're in a bear market
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: position right now?
• 18:23
  Speaker 5: Am I correct?
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: Well, I mean yeah, the most of my money is
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: in I'm investing like a ninety five year old right now.
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: I mean I have some money in gold, SMP five
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: hundred and Berkshire Hathway. Hence the ninety five year old part,
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: because it's interesting. I was trying to find something that
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: i'll perform bitcoin, s and P five hundred, NASDAC and
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: gold in twenty fourteen, twenty eighteen, twenty twenty two bear
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: market years. The only thing I could possibly find was
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: Berkshire halfways.
• 18:45
  Speaker 5: I'm like, I got okay, I got to get this right.
• 18:47
  Speaker 5: Where this is a crypto show, you know that, right well?
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: They have something spoken to It's one of those companies.
• 18:54
  Speaker 5: I'm messing with you. Listen, do you have any crypto
• 18:58
  Speaker 5: right now? Are you in?
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: Oh?
• 18:59
  Speaker 5: Yeah, okay, so are you? I is that what you're
• 19:04
  Speaker 5: doing is trading?
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah? You know?
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: I have e I have some eth I mean, I
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: sold a lot of the long term positions, but I
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: do have I do keep you know, in case of
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: a super cycle or whatnot.
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: I do I do.
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: Eighth is my biggest position right now. I do have trades,
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: and I I'm hedging the bets a bit. It's more
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: like intry day trading swing trading right now.
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: So would you enter silver at sixty one dollars?
• 19:25
  Speaker 5: Let me?
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: Probably not?
• 19:26
  Speaker 5: Okay, so you're probably not.
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: Of course, if you guys have been following our channel,
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: I mean we started talking about silver back around forty bucks.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: When we said this thing's getting ready to go, it
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: started taking off. Andy Schckman we had him on the show.
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: He was, of course spouting that there's a silver squeeze
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: on and sure enough, it has happened now at sixty one.
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: I think back here from.
• 19:47
  Speaker 5: August of this year.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: Let's see what the growth has been on just silver
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: from August to where we're trading right now, sixty percent up.
• 19:56
  Speaker 5: It looks like a mean coin. That's crazy.
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: We're can volatile. Yeah, yeah, I think that gold and silver.
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: You know, I think we're kind of like in the
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: mid to late nineteen sixties for gold and silver, and
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: I think, you know, they're doing well, but they're not
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: really outperforming the S and P five hundred by a
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: crazy amount, at least not just yet. So I think
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: they'll be kind of sideways, maybe a little bit bullish
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: against the S and P five hundred for the next
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: few years. And I think once you get your next
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: market crash, you'll see typically what gold and silver, they
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: crash with the market, but they recover faster and usually
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: they don't crash as badly. So I think you'll see
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: that similar to your nineteen seventies, similar to two thousand
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: and two. Then I think you'll see that nice gold
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: and silver run against the S and P five hundred.
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: As of right now, what I think will happen. I
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: think they will come down with the S and P
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: five hundred and then kind of stay sideways against it
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: for the next few years. I think you need an
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: actual recession to really, you know, kind of make them
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: out perform the S and P five hundred by a lot.
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't think it's a terrible idea to
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: buy gold and silver right now, but you'll very like
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: being be in the red at some point in twenty
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: twenty six. It's maybe a DCA or something of them.
• 21:00
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: Well, and I keep the key there again, is the
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: positions that could be moving right now.
• 21:07
  Speaker 5: It's getting very dice as.
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: To where you could bet because you're looking at Solana
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: right now sideways and we're in the middle of breakpoint.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: How would you trade Solana right now? I mean, this
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: thing is holding at one thirty and has been for
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: about the last three weeks.
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: Well, yeah, I mean it does look I mean there's
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: more of the short term.
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: I think it will as long as you kind of
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: hold these areas as you can see right here, I
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: think you will see a jump up to like the
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: one sixties, which is probably you know, twenty percent upward,
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: maybe up to one eighty eight, and then I think
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: you'll kind of see your lad you're kind of start
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: of your you know, drop down in twenty twenty six,
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: and fortunately unless you could kind of hold that one
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: eighty six that's kind of like one ten or one
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: fifteen for bitcoin. If you can kind of hold those areas,
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: then you could continue and potentially make you all come highs.
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: But I think that's the big area you want to
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: get above. So my kind of base case here is
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: that you're going to come back up and then you're
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: going to drop down and see maybe one hundred, maybe
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: down to eighty some of these areas.
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, So that's just objectively what I would you look here.
• 22:08
  Speaker 5: That's your best case.
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: Probably well, let's see, I mean seventy percent down that
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: would probably.
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: Be worse case.
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: I think I don't know if I'd want to buy
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: Solona if it goes down more than seventy percent from
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: that all time high, because then that's really bleeding badly
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: against ethereum and bitcoin at those points. Probably, So I
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: would say somewhere be down. One hundred to eighty would
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: be like kind of the zone I would be looking at.
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: And I think I don't see why you can't hold eighty.
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: You should easily be able to to do so I
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: mean Solana does look a little bit like right now,
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: the all coin or the thing in general I want
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: to buy is ethereum because Solana keeps bleeding against Etheroreum here.
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: I would want to see more of a jump against
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: ether here to have more like more confidence in Solana
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: right now. Like my fear is that you're going to
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: break down a bit more against ethereum.
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: You know, maybe what you're like, what's your spot on
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: eighth right now?
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: Buy spot an eth.
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: I don't really look at like actual numbers, but I
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: would hope to get in at like two thousand, you know,
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: low two thousands those areas, and if you look at
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: the last time the FED ended QT right here. I'm
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: not going to count your pandemic, but look at kind
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: of this area. If we map this out of market
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: right there, let's see if we can look at this,
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: this would be a good kind of trajectory for this.
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: I would you know, kind of.
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: Estimate here this would be right around seventeen hundred, eight
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: hundred April or May April or May so kind of
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: those areas, and I think that's a really good deal
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: if you can get up to you know, eleven k
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: maybe even higher by the end of the decade.
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: A lot of money to be made there, I.
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: Think, yeah, yeah, okay, well that's a that's a three
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: to four year cycle that we're talking about right now
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: in terms of expectation. Let's pick an alt coin because
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: there are a handful of these that are in accumulation.
• 23:46
  Speaker 5: Phase at low valuation.
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: Which ones would you look at right now if you
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: kind of compare one of the things that some of
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: the large language models have been analyzing right now. As
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: they picked four token like this is across a bunch
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: of different large language models. There were four tokens they
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: selected that were buys for the end of the year.
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: X ro Parady was in there, Solana was in their ethereum,
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: and chain Link. You know, outside of that group, is
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: there any any else that you would say, maybe there's
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: an opportunity here, you know.
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: Right now, I'd probably just trust to trust the AI
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: chain Link. Chain Link especially does look you know, pretty
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: pretty attractive to me.
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: Anything outside of those, I'm struggling.
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: I mean, maybe you can mess with z cash, because
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: that's getting a little recovery rally, but I don't know
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: if I would be too open on that. I think
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: chain Link XRP are the two that I would be
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: really really looking at right now, especially chain Link. And
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: the reason why I like chain Link right now, if
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: you want to take a look at my chart real
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: quick is if we look at here, this is chain
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: link versus Bitcoin. This did very well from you know,
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: twenty eighteen all the way here against bitcoin until August
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: of twenty twenty. So an interesting, interesting thing against bitcoin.
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: Here you might be on the start of the same rye.
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: Look at this trigger wave form me right here, like
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: it wouldn't surprise me.
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: This was the last time.
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: Let's go to the last time the FED ended QT,
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: you know right around here. You know, it wouldn't surprise
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: me if this does a good rally against biitcoin the
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: next couple of years. So chain Link very hopeful on
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: I think it will come down with everything else over
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: the next few months. But I am very hopeful on
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: the macro for chain Link, one of my favorite tokens.
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: All right, Evan, that sounds good man. We're gonna get
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: this and more because obviously we're gonna be looking for
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: special buys for twenty twenty six coming up soon. We'll
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: take a look at whether or not we can actually
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: close out in a nice little rally here where some
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: swing trades can start to take advantage. Last question to you,
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: am I shorting bitcoin today or am I going in
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: on a long I'm holding it ninety k right now,
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: four hundred on bitcoin.
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: This is one from a trader perspective. I think this
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: is one of the times you're going to hate this.
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: But I have a long end and a shorten at
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: different levels. If you can do two to one rear
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: rist aord ratio, regardless of how it breaks upward or downward,
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: you will win the trade.
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: So that's kind of what I'm looking at.
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: If I had a guess, I would ignore kind of
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: the bearishness, the noise for the next couple of weeks,
• 26:09
  Speaker 3: maybe Santa Rally.
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: You know, I have to want to wait.
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: If you don't see it by Christmas or by the
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: end of the year, probably in January, you will see,
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: you know, some more extended bullishness.
• 26:17
  Speaker 5: Interesting. All right, man, thanks for coming in today. We
• 26:20
  Speaker 5: appreciate it.
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, always great to be on. So just a pleasure,
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: you bet, all right?
• 26:24
  Speaker 5: You guys know what to do.
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: Make sure and get into our own private group, which
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: is the baron market edge. You guys can do that
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: by hitting the link down below. Join that absolutely free,
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: and of course follow me out there on x at
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time right here on
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: The Paul Baron Show.