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Week 6 2026 College Football Picks for 15 More Games! · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Don't let the name fool you. 15 more has got
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: some big ones this week. Pitt, 5-0, only a 3.5-point
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: favorite at home. My model says that number should be
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: significantly higher. Lane Kiffin's LSU goes to Kentucky, where both
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: first-year coaches are 4-1. Ohio State laying 34.5. That's the
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: biggest number on the board. And they've got Indiana waiting
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: next week. BYU, they host Iowa State on Friday night
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: with Notre Dame coming to Provo after that. Florida State
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: plays at Louisville. North Dakota State at UNLV. Boise State
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: at Fresno State in a blue turf rematch. We got
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: some big G6 games this week. 15 games. I'm hitting
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: every one of them. And Winning Cures Everything is now
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: presented by PrizePix. So, stay tuned for that. Welcome in.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: This is Winning Cures Everything. It's a college football podcast
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: now proudly presented by PrizePix. I'm your host, Gary Seegers,
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: at GaryWCE.com. on all the different socials. And to get
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: things started off right, go ahead and hit that subscribe button,
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: hit that like button, and make sure and jump in
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: the comments with your favorite picks from this week's card.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: This is the 15 more video, or the next 15,
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: whatever you want to call it. It's games 11 through
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: 25 on the week 6 board. If you caught the
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: 10 best, you know the routine. For every game, I've
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: got the market, the model, the matchup stats, the trends, injuries, weather,
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: and then I'll give you what my show pick is,
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: what the model pick is, and, of course, what the
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: power rating is. So lots of games. Let's go ahead
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: and start off with the record overall on the season.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: And there we go. All right, official show picks on
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: the year. So my picks, even when I go against
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: the model, et cetera. The picks that I am telling you,
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: 68 and 49, that is 58.1% against the number thus
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: far this season. The model is doing even better. 70
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: and 46. That is 60.3% on the year. The underdog
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: picks on the show have been 28 and 21. So 57.1%
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: so far. Week 5, we did pretty well. Show went 14, 10,
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: and 1. The model went 13, 10, and 2. And
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: dogs went 6 and 3 last week. So not too shabby.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: Did fairly well last week, but you know, we can
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: do better, and we're going to shoot for that this week.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Game number one today, Illinois at Michigan State. This one, 2.30 p.m.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: Central Time, God's time zone on FS1. Illinois minus 1.5
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: to minus 2.5, depending on the book here. Total is 47.5
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: to 48.5. Again, we want to make sure that you
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: shop around and that you get the best of the number.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: As you can see on your screen, the power rating
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: has Michigan State minus 0.4, The stats spread has Illinois
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: minus 1.63. The projected total here, 50.3-ish. So we're less
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: than a point off of what the total is. Either
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: less than a point or almost two points off of
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: the total. So we're showing a little value on the
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: home dog, and the model likes the over. Last week,
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: Illinois lost to Purdue 24-17. Didn't look good in Week 1. Sands,
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: their defensive coordinator, Michigan State lost at Wisconsin 31-3. That
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: is three straight losses for Pat Fitzgerald, and they've got
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: Northwestern on deck. The last meeting between these two was
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: in 2024. Illinois 38, Michigan State 16. These teams are
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: wildly different since then, certainly. Next week, Illinois has a bye.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: Michigan State, this is kind of a look-ahead spot, right?
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: Pat Fitzgerald against his old school in Northwestern. And Northwestern
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: has to come to East Lansing. So, eh, we'll see.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: I don't think that Michigan State would overlook this game,
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: but they are, like, beat up. We'll talk about that
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: here in just a little bit. Michigan State's offense is
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: bottom 10, like 18 points a game. That's 125th explosiveness.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: They're 127th, which you can see right there, offensive explosiveness.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: They're not great at stopping explosive plays either, number 86 there.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: And it's not like Illinois is a whole lot better.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Illinois' defense is pretty atrocious. Number 133 in PPA allowed
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: per drive. I mean, just bad. 50% passing success rate allowed.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Opponents score on every red zone trip. And that is,
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: let's see, yeah. Number 133, tied for 133 because they
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: have scored, opponents have scored every single time they've gotten
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: in the red zone. Now, some of those are field
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: goals and whatnot, but defensive red zone touchdown rate, 85th,
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: 63% of the time. And Bielema fired his defensive coordinator
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: back a couple weeks ago, right before the Purdue game.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Michigan State's schedule ranks fourth in the country per Sagarin.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: They commit three penalties a game. That is the second
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: fewest in the country, which is pretty good. But Illinois
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: ain't bad, right? Number 12 in penalties per game, so
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: it's not like it's crazy. You start diving into... PPA
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: margin and whatnot, the schedule that they faced, Michigan State
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: number five, Illinois number 30. I mean, my gosh, Michigan State.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: I looked at this earlier, and it just shocks me
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: how tough Michigan State's schedule has been. I mean, the trends,
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: Illinois is 19-10-1 against the spread since 2024. They are
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: 11-5-1 as a favorite. Michigan State is 4-11-1 against the
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: spread at home, but 11-6. as a dog. These allergies
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: are killing me. One of these two has got to
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: lose this one. So, looking at the injuries, Spartans quarterback
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Fancher questionable with a knee. Milojevic? Milojevic? I'm saying it
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: so wrong. I swear I had this down earlier in
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: the year. He played last week. Illinois has nine guys
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: listed as questionable. Weather is going to be 67 and dry,
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: so that's good, I suppose. I think Michigan State is
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: so banged up, and they're in a pretty big look-ahead spot.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: This Illinois offense is not bad. They didn't look good
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: last week, but I think they're going to be amped
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: up here. I think Illinois should be favored by more
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: than this. I mean, this is just not... not nearly
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: what I expected. I know Michigan State is on a
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: three-game losing streak, but they got Northwestern. I think they
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: want the Northwestern game more than this one. And that
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: offense is just... And again, if you can't score on
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: Illinois' defense, then you are going to have a whole
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: lot of problems. But they've got so many guys banged
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: up on defense that I imagine Illinois is going to
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: be able to do not whatever they want, but a
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: lot of what they want. So... Illinois, minus 1.5 is
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: the best number that we can get right now. I'm
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: going to go against the power rating, but I'll roll
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: with the stats model here. Again, the stats model, Illinois,
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: minus 1.63. The power rating, Michigan State, minus 0.4. This
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: number has moved towards Michigan State. I'm going to bite
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: it back the other direction. Give me Illinois, minus 1.5,
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: to win this game on the road. I think they'll cover,
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: and It wouldn't surprise me to see them win by, like,
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: a field goal here. Game number two, Arizona goes to
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: West Virginia. Boy, what a trip is that. 11 a.m.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: Central Time, God's time zone. This one on TNT and TruTV. And, man,
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: early body clock game. This one's going to be interesting.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: Arizona favored by three and a half right now. They
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: opened as a two and a half point favorite, or
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: at least that's what it was on Sunday morning. Favored by...
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: You know, what, 3.5 now? Total is 61.5 on this,
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: so that total has come up some. Power rating has
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Arizona by 4.9. Stat spread has Arizona minus 6.54. The
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: model's projected total is 55. So it likes the under
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: by a lot of points. I found that interesting. Arizona
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: beat Cincinnati last week 34-7. West Virginia lost a shootout
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: at Iowa State, 45-42. The last meeting between these two
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: teams was in 2024 in Tucson. West Virginia won that
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: one 31-26. So interesting game at that point. As far
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: as who these teams play next, Arizona has a bye.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: West Virginia gets Cincinnati. We don't have a look-ahead spot here.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Rich Rod's offense, they play fast. 2.6 plays a minute.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: That is good for number four in the country. Arizona
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: plays kind of slow. number 93, 2.11 plays per minute.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: West Virginia runs the ball 71% of the time, but
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: the West Virginia pass defense gives up 53% success rate.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: That's 136. That is, that's not good, to say the least.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: I mean, that is a big problem against Noah Fafita, right?
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: Arizona converts 58% on third down, and, you know, I mean,
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: it's good for third in the country, by the way.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: It's not that West Virginia's bad at that. I mean,
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: they're 50th in third-down conversion percentage, and they're 44th in
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: fourth-down conversion percentage.
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: So confused at how Arizona is not favored by Moore.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: I wonder if it's the body clock game. I wonder
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: if it's any number of things here. I like the
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: idea of West Virginia being able to come back and
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: And they do have a lot of things working in
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: their favor, right? But when I look at the fact
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: that Arizona's rushing defense is number 23 in the country
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: in rushing success allowed, they're number 54 in PPA allowed
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: per rush, but number 23 in yards allowed per rush,
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: it kind of seems like a no-brainer. One thing that
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: you can pay attention to is special teams efficiency. That's
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: an Arizona weak spot, right? Number 113... And West Virginia's 44th.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: That's a pretty big difference there. And Arizona, number 114
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: in turnover margin. They're number 82 in giveaways per game,
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: and they generate almost no turnovers. They're number 121 in
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: takeaways per game. As far as trends, we're probably looking
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: at some over-under stuff. Arizona's over-unders with a total between
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: 55 and 59. They're 1-11. So a lot of unders here.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: The total has moved up to 61.5, but outside of
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: that bucket, it's It's the same team, right? Arizona also
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: 5-12 to the over as a favorite. West Virginia goes
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: the other way. 18-11 to the over, 10-5 off of
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: an over. We do have some injuries to talk about.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: Arizona wide receivers, Spivey out with an ankle. West Virginia
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: has three running backs that are questionable. That includes Talley
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: with a hamstring. Weather is supposed to be kind of nice,
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: 64 and calm on this one. Again, all of my
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: numbers have Arizona favored by more Across the board, this
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: thing has gotten up to Arizona 3.5. I don't like
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: the fact that it's early. I don't like the fact
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: that Arizona's having to come all the way across the country.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: But this team is playing pretty well right now. You
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: look at schedule strength per Sagarin, West Virginia 60th, Arizona 89th.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: And you look down towards the bottom, Arizona has played
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: a pretty easy schedule. I still am going to go
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: with the road team here. I think Arizona has a
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: better roster. which they do based on three's overall talent rank,
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: number 52 for Arizona, number 76 in full roster talent
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: for West Virginia. I think there's some holes in this
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: West Virginia defense that Arizona is absolutely going to pick apart,
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: even with the wide receiver out. And the fact that
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: West Virginia has so many running backs out, not excited
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: about that. I'm going to side with the road team.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: Give me Arizona minus three and a half. I'm going
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: to I'm going to go on and not necessarily chase
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: the steam because it's only moved up one point, but
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: I will take Arizona minus three and a half to
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: win and cover on the road in Morgantown. Game three
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: takes us to Friday night. We got Florida state at Louisville,
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: six o'clock central time. God's time zone on ESPN Louisville
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: minus three and a half at home. The total open
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: 57 and a half. It's up to 59 and a
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: half to 60 and a half at a couple of
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: different books. Uh, This thing was Louisville minus 5.5. It's
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: come back a couple of points there. It was 58.5,
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: and that was like middle of the day Sunday when
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: I created this sheet. But now it's at 59.5 or 60.5.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: So the market expects points, and the market expects Florida
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: State to play pretty well here. I don't know if
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: I necessarily trust either one of these defenses to play
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: pretty well, but that would explain the over, right? My
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: projected total on the— well, let's talk about the model first.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Power rating has Louisville minus 4. The stats model has
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: Louisville minus about 2.5 or 2.4. Yeah, so between 4
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: and 2.5, that gets us to 3.5, which is what
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: Louisville has favored at most books now. Pretty crazy. The total, 57.32
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: is my projected total. So, eh. Wasn't quite high enough
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: for the market. They think there's going to be a
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: lot more. But the model leans under now at this point.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: We'll see. We'll see what happens there. Last week, Florida
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: State beat Virginia 38-7. I mean, just put a whooping
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: on them. A lot of that probably had something to
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: do with the fact that Bo Pribula, maybe not the
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: healthiest right now. We'll see. But Ashton Daniels had five
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns in that game. Louisville lost at NC State 31-28.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: All three Louisville losses have been by exactly three points.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Both of these teams are on a short week. The
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: last meeting between these two was the 2023 ACC Championship game.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: Florida State won that one 16-6, and that, of course,
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: was Florida State without Jordan Travis, the quarterback. It's the
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: game that everybody points to as to why they got
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: left out of the playoff, even though they were undefeated, etc., etc.,
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: but they haven't played since then. Florida State has a
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: game at Miami next week. A short week Friday night
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: road trip before that one might be kind of easy
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: to sleepwalk through. Louisville goes to Syracuse next. I don't
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: think Louisville is going to be looking ahead. I don't
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: imagine Florida state is in any kind of a position
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: to be looking ahead to a game. So we, we
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: won't worry about that as far as the handicap goes.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: Louisville throws for 9.8 yards pop. That is 10th in
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: the country. It's pretty good. Florida state's defense number 102
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: in yards allowed per attempt. That's pretty wild. Both defenses
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: are bad. Uh, 102nd and then 113th in PPA allowed
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: per drive. Florida State's offense scored on every red zone
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: trip this year. They've done it against the third toughest
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: set of offenses faced in the country. That includes Alabama
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: and SMU. So when they get in the red zone,
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: they are able to score. They don't have a ton
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: of scoring opportunities per game, but they should have plenty
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: in this game. Florida State's offense now number 65 in
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: the country in PPA. drives where they get a first
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: down inside the opponent 40. That's called a scoring opportunity.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: Louisville is 127th in drives allowed that set up scoring opportunities.
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: Florida State number 12 in points per scoring opportunity, so
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: they finish off a lot of those with touchdowns. Louisville's
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: defense number 76 in points allowed per scoring opportunity. On
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: the other side, Florida State actually pretty good at defending
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: these scoring opportunities. That's something to pay attention to here.
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: Louisville is number 52 in finishing drives. So points per
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity. Florida State's defense is number 41. So while
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: they might let you get down there, they are number
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: 94 in scoring opportunities allowed per game. They're number 41
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: in points per scoring opportunity. And again, they have faced
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: some really difficult offenses. Number three there. Louisville has faced
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: the number four most difficult schedule of opponents' offenses faced.
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, the offenses that these two teams have faced
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: is pretty wild. And Florida State has faced some pretty
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: rough defenses. Louisville has not. Louisville has not even come
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: close to that. So, maybe these two defenses aren't that bad?
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Thing to look at, penalties per game.
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: Louisville gets flagged for 82 yards a game. That's 130th.
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: A lot of extra yards there if Florida State Isn't
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: that crazy? Florida State only 6.6 penalties per game in
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: the 67th, but they're 103rd in penalty yards per game.
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: So when they do get flagged, I guess you could
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: say it's worth it. I guess you could say it's
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: worth it. As far as trends, Florida State in conference
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: 3-15 to the over since 2024. So a lot of
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: unders there. They are 3-10 to the over as a dog.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: Florida State also 2-8 against the spread on the road.
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: Louisville goes the other direction. They're 19-11 to the over.
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: 15-7 to the over as a favorite. So the trends
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: disagree on the total. Everything is.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it is what it is. For Louisville, the quarterback, Keenholes,
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: questionable with a lower body injury. They've got a corner
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: that's out also. Florida State's running back, Singleton Jr., and
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: the wide receiver, Carter, are out. Weather's supposed to be
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: 76 and clear. I can get down with that. It
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: is so difficult to trust... Florida State. And yet, they
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: show up every now and then with something like what
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: happened last week. Right? I mean, they just demolished Virginia.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: And Louisville, I don't know what to make of this
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: team at all. And if the quarterback ain't playing, which
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: we'll see, or if he's not 100%, you've got to
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: keep up with this Florida State offense that is pretty good.
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: 25th in PPA per drive on offense. They're only 54th
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: in offensive success rate, but they're pretty good passing the football.
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, 37 in the PPA per pass, number 7
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: in PPA per rush, and Ashton Daniels fits pretty good
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: into this offense. They don't throw the ball a lot,
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: but when they do, it's pretty successful. Number 4 in
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: passing explosiveness. They are number 55 in rushing explosiveness, but
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: you start looking at this, number 31 in stuff rate.
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: Are stuff rate allowed? Louisville only 135 in stuff rate.
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: Like that Louisville defense, they have trouble stopping the run.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: They certainly do. This is going to... Whatever direction I
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: go with this, it's going to feel foolish, right? I'm
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: going to take Florida State, plus the three and a half.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: I feel like they're the better team that's playing with
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: some confidence right now. Louisville, I don't know what to
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: expect out of this team. Like, I just... They find
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: ways to get themselves beat. It is not going well.
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: They are 2-3 right now. 2-3 overall, 3-2 against the spread.
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: I'll take Florida State, plus 3.5. I think they can
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: show up on the road here. Well, I can't wait
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: to watch this one. This one's going to be interesting.
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: Like I said yesterday, if your Saturday homework involves offensive
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: lines and, you know, fourth down defense, et cetera, you
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: are my kind of person, 100%. And PrizePix gives you
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• 20:28
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• 20:34
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• 21:17
  Speaker 1: make sure that you play responsibly. All right, back at it.
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: Game number four, Big Ten matchup, Maryland at Ohio State.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: This one, 3.15 p.m. Central Time on the Big Ten Network.
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: Ohio State favored by 34.5, total 56 to 56.5, depending
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: on the spot. My total here is 55. Power rating
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: has Ohio State minus 29.8, and my stats model has
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: Ohio State minus 34.93. This thing was 35.5. It is
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: now 34.5, and my number just splits those two right
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: down the middle. That's pretty wild. That's so ridiculous. Only
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: the power rating sees value on Maryland here, right? Last week,
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: Ohio State won at Iowa 31-14. Julian Sayen, big day,
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: 324 and three touchdowns. Jeremiah Smith, everybody's talking about this
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: guy like he is the second coming, and he's kind
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: of proving that. 11 catches, 206 yards. He is setting
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: every record that there is at Ohio State, which has
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: a history of really good wide receivers, and yet I
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: think he is making the case to be the best
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: one out of all of them. even still Maryland lost
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: at Nebraska 48 to 23. It's their third straight loss.
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: The one before that 54 to three at home against UCLA.
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: And it was an early game. It was a body
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: clock game for UCLA and Maryland has just fallen off
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: the cliff, right? The last meeting between these two teams
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: was in 2023, Ohio state won that one 37 to 17. Uh,
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: that was a very different Maryland team. I think that's
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: the easiest way to put that. Um, This game has
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: the biggest look ahead on the board. Ohio State's next
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: game is at number seven, Indiana, who is kind of
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: a revenge spot for them because they lost in the
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: Big Ten Championship game to them last year, led to
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: Ohio State being the number two seed. They had to
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: play Miami. They end up losing that one. So you
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: get the win over Michigan back last year, but then
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: you lose the Big Ten Championship. You lose the first
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: game in the playoffs. And then you start out this
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: year with a loss to Texas in week two. Not great.
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: Not great. Laying 34.5 the week before going to Indiana.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: The starters could potentially be on the bench by the
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: third quarter, and that's when backdoor covers happen. Maryland gets
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: Rutgers next. I don't anticipate Maryland looking ahead here. Let's
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: look at some of the numbers. I think this is
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: more of a mental handicap than it is an actual
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: stats handicap, but we'll look anyway. It just appeases us.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: Ohio State's defense... Allows 12.6 points a game. That is
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: eighth in the country. There we go. The Buckeyes are
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: plus 21 in the first half. That is third in
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: the country, which you can see right there. First half
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: point margin number three, Maryland. Maryland gives up a red
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: zone touchdown 85% of the time. That is 133rd in
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: defensive red zone touchdown rate. They get outscored by nine
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: in the second half. That's 119th. Ohio State's number 19
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: in second half point margin. The one thing that helps
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: a dog this big, Maryland does play fast. They're seventh
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: in place per minute, so there might be backdoor chances late.
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: You could also find yourself in a really big hole
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: early because you play so fast and you're not exactly efficient.
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: I think that's the easiest way to put that. If
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: you look at it, they throw the ball a lot
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: and they're not good at it. They throw the ball
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: over 62% of the time, but they're 113th in PPA
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: per pass. Well, Ohio State's defense is 16th. in PPA
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: allowed per pass. They're number four in QBR allowed. And
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: Maryland's offense is outside of the top 100 in passing explosiveness,
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: passing downs, PPA, QBR, yards per attempt. I mean, this
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: ain't a good matchup for Maryland. Mike Loxley struggling, struggling,
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: as Joe Willie would say. Looking at some trends, Ohio
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: State 24-10 against the spread since 2024. They are 19-7
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: against the number off a straight-up win. Maryland, on the
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: other hand, completely different. 6-13 against the spread in conference.
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: Head-to-head overs are 5-1. So these two teams do score
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: a lot, and they tend to go over the total,
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: which is 55.5-ish. But they go over by an average
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: of 16 points per game. Maryland's got a defensive lineman
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: and a linebacker out. Other than that, pretty clean spot.
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: Weather's supposed to be 73 and dry. Don't think weather's
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: going to be a factor here. The only thing that
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: would keep Ohio State from running the score up is, one,
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: they do play a little bit faster than they did
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: last year. At number 74 in plays per minute, they
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: were dead last for a lot of last season. And
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: I think that that was Ryan Day. I don't think
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: he ever actually admitted it. But I think Ryan Day
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: was trying to get to the national championship again and
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: keep his guys healthy at the same time by not
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: playing them a ton of plays. And I get it.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: I understand where he was coming from with it, but
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: even still, Arthur Smith going a little bit faster this
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: year would certainly play to their benefit if they have
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: way more talent than everybody else. The only thing that
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: would keep Ohio State from blowing past this spread is
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: if they are just completely looking ahead to Indiana. Right?
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: Maryland has shown nothing in the past several weeks to
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: make you think that they can even be somewhat competitive
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: in a game like this. So, I do think Ohio
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: State could... What is Ohio State in points per game?
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: Number 14 in points per game. That defense for Maryland,
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: number 116 in points per game allowed... I don't anticipate
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: Maryland being able to score very much here because they
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: like to throw it, and Ohio State is pretty good
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: against the pass. I think they're going to get after
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: the quarterback some. I would probably play a first half
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: Ohio State if I was going to play anything, but
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: as far as the show is concerned... I'll go with
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: the model here. I will go Ohio State minus 34.5
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: because Maryland has just been walloped by everybody. If you
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: get killed by Nebraska when you were up fairly big
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: on the road and then you come back and get
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: beat by 25 there, it lets me know that that
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: defense can be scored on from anywhere on the field.
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: And when Ohio State has Jeremiah Smith, I think they're
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: going to do a lot of scoring. Just a guess. So,
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: Go ahead and, again, the stats model, Ohio State minus 34.93.
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: The power rating, Ohio State minus 29.8. I'm going to
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: go with Ohio State minus 34.5 to cover the game here.
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: I just don't anticipate even a backdoor cover from Maryland
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: in this game, even with the look-ahead spot. Y'all tell
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: me in the comments if I'm wrong, or if you
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: think that I'm wrong. But... I don't think this is
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: going to be a whole lot of fun to watch.
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: Game number five, we move to the SEC. LSU at Kentucky,
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: 6 p.m. Central on ESPN. This one at Kroger Field
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: in Lexington. LSU minus 8.5, total of 52.5. This one opened,
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: or at least on Sunday, was LSU minus 10 with
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: a total of 54.5. This thing has moved down two, and.
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: The total has moved down two points, and the spread
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: has moved down a point and a half. So again,
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: LSU minus eight and a half, total 52 and a half.
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: Not sure that I fully understand it. I get that
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: Kentucky has looked pretty good. They've gotten some wins and whatnot.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: but also yeah are we sure are we I mean
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: are we I don't know Kentucky strength of record is
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: interesting number five I mean they got walloped in the
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: second half by Alabama but still and LSU I mean
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: they're dropping even though they're winning just because the other
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: wins that they've gotten have really not looked very good.
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: The model here has, my stats model has LSU minus 10.3.
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: The power rating has LSU minus 6.3. So if you're
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: just following the power rating, I get why the number
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: is moving. Excuse me. Well, that was rude, wasn't it?
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: This recording late stuff, it's fall break, by the way.
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: I'm having to wait until the kids go to sleep
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: before I can start recording, and I'm drinking coffee, and
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: I'm doing my thing. Got my Bucky's cup. We're going
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: to get there, fellas. We're going to get there. All right.
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: If you're just going by the power rating, I understand
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: why the number has moved towards Kentucky. I get that.
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: The fact that the game is at home at night,
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: certainly a big deal. And I imagine the crowd is
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: going to be pretty amped up. They are believing in
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: Will Stein right now. I get that. I totally get that.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: The model likes the over by 3.5 points. The sides
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: are right in between. The fact that it's at 8.5
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: right now is hilarious because my stats model has LSU
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: minus about 10.5. Power rating has LSU minus about 6.5.
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: So it's like cut right down the middle. I hate
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: when it does that because I don't know what direction
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: to go with it. Last week, LSU beat McNeese State 60-30-14.
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: They didn't cover. Not that it mattered. Kentucky won at
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: South Carolina 35-34. They were an underdog there, and they
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: won outright. Going for two in the first overtime. Bravo,
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: Will Stein. Bravo, Will Stein. Both of these guys are
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: first-year coaches at these programs. Both are 4-1 to start.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: The last meeting between these two was in 2021. 2021.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: Mark Stoops led Kentucky, beat LSU 42-21. I mean, just absurd.
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: Just absolutely absurd that that ever happened, but even still.
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: Next up, LSU gets Mississippi State. Kentucky goes to Oklahoma.
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: Not a real look-ahead spot for either team, but both
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: winnable games for both of these guys, so something to
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: pay attention to. Kentucky's run game is third in rushing success,
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: and they're going up against an LSU defense that is second.
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: in rushing success. Yeah, rushing success rate. Like, that is... Boy,
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: what a matchup that is. What a matchup that is.
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: LSU's defense is number one in success rate allowed. 34%
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: success rate allowed. And if you look at who they've played,
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: the offenses haven't been great overall if you take out
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss. Like, even if you keep Ole Miss in there, like,
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: they're still 108th in offenses faced. 105th in rushing faced.
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: On the other side, Kentucky has actually played some pretty
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: good offenses. Number 12 in rushing PPA, number 31 in
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: offensive PPA overall. The defenses haven't exactly been difficult, but
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: they have been for Kentucky. Kentucky has been able to
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: run the football on teams that don't allow you to
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: run the football. That's impressive. Kentucky's defense, 103rd in success
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: rate allowed. So the fact that Kentucky has played some
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: pretty good offenses... This tracks, right? Absolutely tracks. And they've
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: still been okay. Like, against the pass, not too bad.
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: They don't give up explosive runs, really. Number 42 in
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: rushing explosiveness allowed. Just interesting numbers from this Kentucky team.
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: This Jay Bateman defense is, it's been surprising thus far.
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: It certainly has. LSU wins the second half by 17
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: points a game. That is second in the country. And
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: you could absolutely see that in that Ole Miss game.
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: They were down 24-7 at the half. They came back
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: to tie it 24-22. Yeah, 24-24. Yeah. Yeah, I get it.
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: Kentucky has played the 7th toughest schedule. LSU has faced
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: the 113th ranked group by opponent PPA margin. Right? That's
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: what I brought up down here. But if you look
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: at the Sagarin strength schedule, they're 35th. Sagarin's number's weird.
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: So weird. But I guess if you take out, like,
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: FCS competition and you just go based on, like, power ratings, Maybe.
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I look at PPA. PPA is a
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: real number. That's predicted points added. It's very similar. Its
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: sister is expected points added, which is EPA. How much
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: is a play worth? We can get into that another time.
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: We ain't got time for that right now. Trends. Let's
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: look at some trends on this. LSU, 10 and 20
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: against the spread since 2024. They are 5 and 12
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: off a spread loss, which applies here. Kiffin, Total of 54.5
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: or higher, 6-14 to the over. This one is a
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: couple of points under that bucket. LSU in conference, 5-12
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: to the over. Kentucky is 10-6 against the spread as
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: a dog, so they typically perform well in these spots.
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: As far as injuries, LSU spears the safety, and the
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: wide receiver right is out for this one. Kentucky's wide
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: receiver Miller out with the leg. Weather on this one
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: Saturday night 75 percent or seven sorry 75 degrees with
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: a slight chance of rain While my my stats model
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: has this thing double digits I'm also gonna kind of
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: look at the power rating I'm gonna look at some
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: of the trends with Kentucky this Kentucky team believes in
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: themselves right now and the fact that Kentucky has played
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: such a more difficult strength of schedule than LSU LSU
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: of course The turnover margin stuff is something to pay
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: attention to. Number 98 in giveaways per game. Kentucky is
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: number 9 in takeaways per game. Neither of these teams
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: are really very good in special teams. I think Kentucky
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: can hang around here. I don't think this is going
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: to be one of those where Kentucky kind of hangs
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: around and then, like the Alabama game, they just obliterate
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: them in the second half. I think Kentucky can hang
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: in this game, and I think LSU can make enough
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: mistakes that this being a road game... Could get interesting.
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: It's only the second road game for LSU. The first
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: one they lost in Oxford. Granted, highly different situation, but
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go Kentucky. Again, stats model has LSU
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: minus 10.3. Power rating has LSU minus 6.3. The line
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: is LSU minus 8.5. I will go Kentucky plus the 8.5 here.
• 36:34
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• 36:37
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• 36:46
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• 36:58
  Speaker 1: the community today. Game number six, UCF goes to Oklahoma State,
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: 11 a.m. Central Time, ESPN2. This one in Stillwater, Oklahoma
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: State minus 9.5 to minus 10.5, depending on the book.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: Total 53.5 to 54.5 on this. Again, shop your lines,
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: do your thing. Don't forget you can check out PrizePix, too.
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: They got spreads, too. The model has Oklahoma State minus 6.8.
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: That's the stats model. The power rating has Oklahoma State
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: minus 5.5. And the spread, of course, as I mentioned, 9.5
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: to 10.5. When I created this on Sunday, it was
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State minus 10. So it's going to move both directions.
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: Is what it is. The model, as far as the
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: total is concerned, again, this total 53.5 to 54.5, it's
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: moving up a little bit. My stats projected total, 52.76.
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: Kind of weird. Kind of weird. My models have.
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: Three to four points of value on UCF here. UCF
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: has not been very good on offense. Oklahoma State's offensive
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: numbers have been really good in some games and really
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: not great efficiency-wise in others. Hence why they're 102 in
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: PPA per rush, but they're number 24 in yards per rush.
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: They're number 56 in PPA per pass, but they're number
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: 26 in yards per attempt. Their passing success rate isn't good,
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: but they're number 17 in passing explosiveness. Passing down is PPA.
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: They're number 99. Like, this team is just kind of
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: all over the place.
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: Last week, Oklahoma State, off of a bye, won at
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: West Virginia 41-24. Drew Mustermaker looked awesome. That offense was awesome. Mustermaker,
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: 389 yards. I think they had over 600 yards total
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: in the game. Year one under Eric Morris has been
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: all over the place. They lost to Tulsa in week one.
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: They beat Oregon. UCF lost at Houston last week, 27-17,
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: but they covered. They beat TCU at home the week
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: before that with their backup quarterback. The last meeting between
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: these two was last November. UCF won it 17-14, and
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: that Oklahoma State team was awful. I mean, just awful.
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: This is a completely different team. Next up for these two,
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State goes to ranked Houston. UCF has a bye,
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: and then they get BYU at home. That's a spot.
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: They get BYU the week after BYU has... has to
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: play Notre Dame at home. I mean, yeah. Let's go.
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State turns the ball over a lot. Like, a
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: whole lot. Number 126 in giveaways per game. UCF takes
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: it away two times a game, and that's ninth. So
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: this is not a good setup for Oklahoma State by
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: any stretch of the imagination. UCF also leads the country
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: in explosive runs. Oklahoma State's defense is number 80. Let's see.
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: So number 46 in rushing explosiveness, but number 86 in
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: rushing success rate. UCF, number 95 in rushing success rate,
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: but again, number one in rushing explosiveness. When they break off,
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: like number 87 in PPA per rush, but number 19
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: in yards per rush. It's so crazy. This game is
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: going to be absolute mayhem. More stats. Cowboys scored a
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: touchdown on only 46% of their red zone trips. That's 127th.
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: And yet, they're number two in the country in red
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: zone appearances per game. So they get down there a lot.
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: They just don't score a lot of touchdowns. Which is why,
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: when you look at their offense... Number one in scoring
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: opportunities per game. That's, uh, how many drives do you
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: get a first down inside the opponent? 40. And then
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: they're number 77 in points per scoring opportunity. UCF's defense
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: number 16 and scoring opportunities allowed per game. Number 13
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: in points allowed per scoring opportunity. UCF's offense is so
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: not good. And that's the catch here, right? Like that's
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: why this number is 10 and a half or nine
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: and a half, depending on where you get it. Um,
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: They're number 114 in offensive success rate. They're on their
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: backup quarterback right now. The starter is going to be
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: back at some point, I think. Who knows? As far
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: as trends go, Eric Morris is a home favorite of 3-plus,
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: 9-1 against the spread. That is a really strong number. UCF,
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: 6-13 against the spread in the Big 12. They are
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: 4-10 off of a straight-up loss. So the trends lean
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State. The model leans UCF. Man, if Barnett was playing... Like,
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: that's the UCF quarterback that's out. I'd feel a whole
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: lot better about this. Keon Jenkins, who played at FIU
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: last year, he's probable to start here. We're going to
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: have light winds. It's going to be 74 degrees. The
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: weather should be just fine. But the turnovers and the
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State defense and the fact that they're just not
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: super efficient on offense. Like, they can be explosive, but
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: they're not always the most steady offensively. I'm intrigued. We'll
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: call it that. I'm intrigued in this. I can get
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: a 10.5. I'll take UCF. Like, why not? I'll take
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: UCF in this. They played Houston last week, played them close.
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: I think they can do the same thing with Oklahoma State.
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: And Oklahoma State's got Houston coming up next week. UCF
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: headed to a bye. UCF can just leave it all
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: out on the field. I'm pretty stoked about that. I
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: don't think this UCF team is all that bad. Number
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: 65 in PPA margin. You look at who they've played,
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: by the way. UCF number four, toughest schedule in opponent
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: PPA margin. Yeah, I think this team has played some
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: pretty good teams. I like UCF to be able to
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: cover this number. So UCF plus 10.5 in Stillwater. This
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: could look real foolish because Oklahoma State has the ability
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: to lose to Tulsa, and also beat up on Oregon.
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: Which version do we get this week? I'll take UCF
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: plus 10.5. Game number seven in the ACC. Duke goes
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: to Georgia Tech. This one at 2.30 p.m. Central Time.
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: God's time zone on ESPN2 in Bobby Dodd Stadium, which
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: has not exactly been the friendly confines this year for
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: the Yellow Jackets. Duke minus 6.5 here, total of 48.5.
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: The model... All over the Blue Devils. All over them.
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: Duke minus 7.1 as far as the power rating is concerned.
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: The stats model has Duke minus 10.4. The model is
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: on the number or leaning Duke by up to four points.
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: That's pretty wild. My total on this, 50.94. Like, this
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: total was at 50.5. It's down to 48.5. Not expecting
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: a lot of points out of Georgia Tech. However... Georgia
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: Tech did put up a lot of points when they
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: went out to Palo Alto, so who knows what we're
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: going to get. Can they finish drives? Can they not?
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: So far on the year, Georgia Tech number 98 in
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity. Eh, not great. Duke is number
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: 21 in points per scoring opportunity, and Georgia Tech's defense
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: is atrocious at it. We'll dive more into that. Both
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: of these teams are coming off of a bye. Duke
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: 4-0 under Manny Diaz. That includes a win at Illinois,
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: which looks worse by the week. Georgia Tech 1-3. Their
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: last meeting... between these two teams. It was last October.
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tech won that one 27-18 in Durham. Next up
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: for these two teams, Duke host North Carolina. That is
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: their rivalry game. Georgia Tech goes to Virginia Tech. I
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: don't feel like either one of those is going to
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: really be considered a look-ahead spot. So we won't really
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: incorporate that into our handicap on this. So, um, Duke's defense.
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about that first. Number 32 in PPA allowed
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: per drive. They are 11, or they're giving up 11
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: points a game. That is good for sixth in the country.
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: They are fifth in explosive plays allowed, defensive explosiveness allowed,
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: and they're number seven in offensive explosiveness, but we're talking
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: about the defense here. The caveat here is that Duke's
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: schedule ranks 125th. And that is per Sagarin. But if
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: you look at the opponent PPA margin, 135th. If you
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: look at the offenses that they have faced, number 102
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: in offense PPA faced. The defenses that Duke has played.
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: Number 138, toughest schedule. I mean, it really cannot get
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: easier than that. That's insane. That is dead last in
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: the country. It is the easiest schedule of defenses faced.
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: In the entire country. Georgia Tech, as far as defense
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: is faced, number 52. So, slightly more opposition for Georgia Tech,
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: hence why their current strength of schedule is 67, and
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: Duke's is 125th at Sagarin. Georgia Tech gets outscored by
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: nine in the second half. That's 122nd. They've got three
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: defensive linemen out. That ain't going to be good. I'll
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: tell you that right now. That running back, he's going
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: to be running all over the place. You look at
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: these numbers already. Duke number seven in yards per, or sorry,
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: that's on defense. Duke is number 16 in yards per rush.
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: The Georgia tech defense is number 90, uh, Duke number
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: 16 and rushing explosiveness, Georgia tech number 68 in explosiveness allowed.
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: You look on the other side on defense, Georgia tech
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: number one Oh four, or sorry, number one, 10 in
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: yards per rush Duke's defense number seven. But again, strength
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: of schedule matters. Uh, Penalties, both of these teams commit
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: eight-plus penalties a game, number 116 and number 121 here.
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: Turnover margin is very interesting. Duke never turns the ball over,
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: number 14 in giveaways per game. Georgia Tech, number 75
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: in giveaways per game. But neither one of these teams
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: takes the ball away, ever. Like Georgia Tech, number 130
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: in takeaways per game. Duke, number 116. You dive into
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: some trends here. Duke is 13-3-2 against the spread in
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: conference since 2024. They are 8-3-2 on the road. Georgia
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: Tech as a dog, 2-9 to the over. Head-to-head Tech
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: is 6-3 straight up in the last nine against Duke.
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: Duke's quarterback Gardner is out, so Walker Egett still starting,
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: you know, is what it is. Georgia Tech has nine
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: on the report today. And six of them are listed
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: as out. So we got some dudes. Weather could be
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: very interesting here. 20 mile an hour east winds gusting
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: to 31. You got a 41% chance of rain in Atlanta.
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: Like this is going to be a wind game. And
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: I have not seen anything out of this Georgia Tech
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: defense that would lead me to believe that they can
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: stop this running game from Duke. Again, the model has
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: the stats model. This is opponent adjusted. has Duke minus 10.4.
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: The power rating has Duke minus seven. The line right
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: now is Duke minus six and a half. If you've
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: got a wind game, if you got some rain and whatnot,
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: then this could end up being similar to Virginia tech,
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: Maryland that we saw with that nor'easter back a couple
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: of weeks ago, uh, Boston college, or sorry, it was
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: a Virginia tech, Maryland, no Virginia tech, um, Virginia tech,
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: Boston college. And then Boston college went down to SMU
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: played in a monsoon in Dallas. That was another interesting one. Um,
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: I think Duke can win this one, and I think
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: they can cover that six and a half pretty easily. Normally,
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: the strength of schedule would keep me off of the
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: Blue Devils, but I know that they are really efficient.
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: They're number 14 in raw five factors rank. They don't...
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: turn the ball over. They get after the quarterback. They
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: can stop the run. They, their field position is really good.
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: Like this is a team that's just efficient. And when
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: you're playing in conditions like that, efficiency matters. I think
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: Duke handles them here. Give me Duke minus six and
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: a half on the road. Uh, Until Georgia Tech shows
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: me something, I can't trust this team. I can't trust
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: them at all. So I will take the Blue Devils,
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: minus 6.5. Game number eight, staying in the ACC. Virginia
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: Tech goes all the way across the country to take
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: on Cal. 2.30 p.m. Central Time on the ACC Network.
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: This one in Berkeley. Virginia Tech, minus 9.5 with a
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: total of 53.5 on this one. The model... My power
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: rating has Virginia Tech minus 7.3. My stats model has
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech minus 9.58. I mean, just bananas. The projected
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: total that I've got on this, 54.8, we'll call it.
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: This total was 52.5. It has gone up to 53.5,
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: so it's coming up to meet my number. And the 9.5,
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, my stats model is just dead on it.
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: Just dead on it. Virginia Tech coming off of a
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: pretty emotional letdown spot, right? Coming off that loss to Pitt, 35-33.
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: Ethan Grunkemeier, 4-34 last week. Cal, they lost at UNLV.
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: Things are not going well for Tosh Lapoi, right? They
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: lost 39-31. James Franklin, 4-1 in year one. Tosh Lapoi
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: is 2-3. The last meeting between these two teams was
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: last October, and Virginia Tech won that one 42, Cal 34.
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: Two completely different teams right now than what they were.
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: This offense for Cal, I mean, God bless. Let's talk
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: about what these teams got coming up next. Virginia Tech,
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: they fly home. They're going to face Georgia Tech next week,
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: so not really a look-ahead spot for them. Cal gets
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: Wake Forest. The cross-country trip is like the biggest factor
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: in this thing, and that's Virginia Tech going all the
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: way across the country. But they played on weeknight last week,
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: so they got a day extra to knock this out.
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech's Havoc rate. They're number two in the country
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: in Havoc. Cal is number 112 in Havoc allowed. Cal's offense,
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: 125th in success rate, 129th in explosiveness. They get flagged
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: nine times a game or over nine times a game
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: for 86 yards. That's 136th in yards per game. For
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech, something to pay attention to is the fact
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: that they are minus one in turnover margin. That's 121st.
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: And you've got a cross-country road trip here. But there's
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: nothing about this game other than maybe the defense. That's
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: kind of what we're looking at here is a strength-on-strength matchup.
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: Because Virginia Tech likes to throw the football. In Cal's defense,
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: the only thing they're really good at stopping is the pass.
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: Like Virginia Tech's offense, 21st in PPA per pass. Cal's defense,
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: 23rd in PPA allowed per pass. You know, Virginia Tech
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: isn't exactly explosive. Cal can't stop explosives. But Cal can't
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: get after the quarterback either. I'm just, this is such
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: a weird spot. Such a weird spot. Looking at the
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: current strength of schedule, Virginia Tech number 102 at Sagarin,
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: Cal number 37 at Sagarin. But if you dive deeper
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: into the numbers, the offenses faced, Cal number 111 in
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: offensive PPA faced, Virginia Tech number 131. Opponent PPA margin,
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: number 105 for Virginia Tech, number 68 for Cal. Cal
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: has faced some tough defenses. But I don't feel like
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: that's any excuse for them to be as bad as
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: they are on offense. Like, they are just not super explosive.
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: They are not efficient. They're just not anything on offense.
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's crazy to watch how bad this team
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: looks on offense. As far as trends, Virginia Tech is
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: a favorite 15-4 to the over. Franklin's team's 8-3 to
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: the over with totals of 50-54.5. Cal is 5-10 against
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: the spread at home. But Franklin, 4-10 against the spread
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: in conference since 2024. And Tech is 5-9 against the
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: spread off of a loss. Injuries like Cal's running back, Vargas,
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: is out. Virginia Tech has five questionable, mostly receivers here. Weather's,
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's typical Berkeley weather. 66 with a light breeze,
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: nothing too crazy. Again, the stats model has Virginia Tech
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: minus 9.58. The power rating has Virginia Tech minus 7.
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: This is an absolute letdown spot for Virginia Tech. They've
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: got to travel across the country. Cal has not looked
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: good at all. That's why I'm going to go with
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: Cal to be able to keep this thing close. They're
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: not a good football team at all. They lost and
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: didn't look good against UNLV last week. I still like
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: their quarterback. I think they can come up with something.
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: And the fact that Virginia Tech has to go across
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: the country right after losing that game the way that
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: they did, I don't think they lose this game. I
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: just think it's very uncomfortable for Virginia Tech. So I'm
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: going to go with what the power rating has. I
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: think Virginia Tech wins by about a touchdown. I can
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: roll with that. And the market is going that direction anyway.
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech minus 10.5 is what it was on Sunday afternoon.
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: Now it's Virginia Tech minus 9.5. Yeah, I'll take Cal.
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: Give me Cal plus 9.5 here. Game number nine, we're
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: in the ACC again. Wake Forest at NC State, 11 a.m.
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: Central Time on the CW. Wake Forest right now favored
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: by 3.5, total 59.5. So the total has come down
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: a point, and the line is just staying right there.
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: Model has Wake minus 2.87 as a favorite on the road.
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: Power rating has Wake minus 2.4. Like, kind of interesting.
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: Projected total is at 56.9. So, I mean, slight lean
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: to NC State plus the hook, and the model likes
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: the under by about 2.5. I mean, some of these
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: numbers have been really close this week. Last week, Wake
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: beat Stanford 57-3. Gio Lopez had three rushing scores there.
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: NC State beat Louisville 31-28. That was a bit surprising. C.J. Bailey,
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: fantastic game, 373 yards. The last meeting between these two
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: teams was in September of last year. NC State 34,
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: Wake Forest 24. This Wake Forest team has been so
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: much better than I think anybody anticipated them being. NC
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: State has a bye next week. Wake has to go
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: across the country to Cal. Not really a look at
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: spot here. NC State's passing success rate. Let's take a
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: look at this. Passing success number 87. Okay. I'm sorry,
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: that's their pass rate. Their passing success rate is number 23.
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: Wake's passing success rate allowed is number 123. NC State
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: has a chance to take advantage of this Wake passing defense.
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: The fact that Jake Dickerson is the coach and the
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: offense is the strong suit on this team just blows
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: my mind. Hiring Robby Zell and bringing in Gio Lopez,
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: genius idea. Genius idea. Looking at penalties, it's such a
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: huge number here. Wake number 131 in penalties per game.
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: 85 yards, that's 133rd penalty yards per game. I mean,
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: you're talking about a 35, well, 33 yard per game difference.
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: That is so, that's so much extra yardage, right? Some
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: of these numbers are just crazy. Every time I look
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: at this sheet, I'm just surprised. Just surprised. Wake's defense
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: has not been good because they've been facing pretty good offenses,
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: number 11 in offense, PPA-faced. Passing PPA-faced, number 13. NC
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: State has also faced really good passing offenses, number 10
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: in passing PPA-faced. Wake Forest has played really easy defenses,
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: number 133 in PPA-faced on defense. NC State, number 101. So,
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule favors NC State here, but... But Wake
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: Forest has certainly looked really good. They've certainly looked really good.
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: NC State kind of got their own problems on the events.
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: They get outscored by 8.5 in the second half. That's
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: 115th in the country. They start off strong enough, right?
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: Number 52 at plus 4.2. But they are number 115
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: in second half margin. Wake Forest is okay. Number 40
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: in second half point margin at plus 4.4. Again, strength
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: of schedule matters. But the way that NC State has
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: been giving away games in the second half is just mind-blowing.
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: They tried to give that game away last week against Louisville.
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: As far as trends go... in this game, NC State
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: in conference 13-6 to the over. They're 10-5 to the
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: over as a dog. Jake Dickert's teams off of an over,
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: they are 10-5 to the over. So the trends say
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: to go over, even though my model says not to.
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: But the trends say to go over. The model says under.
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: NC State 5-9 against the spread off of a win. Head-to-head,
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: these two teams have split 5-5 over the past 10.
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: Looking at some injuries, these could make a difference here.
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: Maybe NC State's kicker is out. Well, their kicker is questionable,
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: and the running back Moss is questionable. I don't know
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: exactly how much that matters, but either way. The weather here,
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: 72 with a light breeze. I don't anticipate it. really
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: making any kind of an impact on the game. There's
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: a lot of Wake Forest love right now. NC State,
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: I think that win over Louisville last week kind of
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: helped get them on the right track. I think right
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: now they are 3-2. Wake Forest is 4-1. But going
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: to NC State and the fact that Wake Forest has
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: not played as difficult a schedule... Especially as far as
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: defenses go. I mean, again, it's not like NC State
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: is anything to write home about necessarily. But I think
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: NC State can take advantage of Wake Forest's defense in
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: a different way than Geo. I look at this and
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: I come up with a different conclusion every single time.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: Every single time. I get ready to record and I'm like, okay,
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: I know what I'm doing here. And then I look
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: at the numbers again, and I'm like, why did I
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: think that the first time? You know, I'll stick with
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: my gut on this one based on what I have
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: looked at. Give me NC State plus 3.5 at home.
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: Game number 10. This is a late Friday night game.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: Iowa State goes to BYU. This one, 9.15 p.m. Central Time.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: God's time zone on ESPN. BYU favored by 10.5 at home.
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: The total, 46.5 on this. Now, my model... right now
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: has BYU, well, the power rating has BYU minus 13.1.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: The stats model has BYU minus 17.63. My projected total
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: on this, 52.5. The model, it's got BYU by 3
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: to 7 more than the market. It likes the over
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: by about 6 points. Interesting spot. Interesting spot. Last week,
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: BYU won at TCU 17 to 10. Bear Bachmeier, I mean,
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: you might as well just throw these numbers away. 11-24
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: for 62 yards passing. Iowa State beat West Virginia 45-42
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: and didn't expect that. This Iowa State team played a
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: 16-13 loss to Iowa not that long ago. And then
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: they go out and put up 45 on West Virginia.
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: What version are we getting? What are we doing? Both
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: of these teams play slow, by the way. Number 118
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: in pace of play for Iowa State. Number 129 for BYU.
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: Both teams on a short week here. The last meeting
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: between these two was last October. BYU 41, Iowa State 27.
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: Look ahead spot here. Maybe BYU's next game is against
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame in Provo. Lay in 10.5 on a Friday
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: night short week right before that spot. I'd be careful
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: with that. Iowa State has a bye next week. Certainly
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: something to pay attention to. And I think it's priced
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: in here. Right? If you look at the stats model,
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: most of my stats models are pretty close to the spread. Like,
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: pretty close. This one is off by a full touchdown.
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: BYU's running game, I think that's the biggest difference here.
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's a huge difference. Their running game is
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: top five in both rushing success and explosiveness. BYU's passing
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: success rate is 109, so the Cougars have to win
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: this thing on the ground. And Iowa State They allow
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: explosive runs at only 5.8%. That's number eight. However, they
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: are number 76 in rushing success rate, and that ain't good.
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: That ain't good. Both of these red zone defenses rank
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: 114th or worse. Right there, number 128 in red zone
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: touchdown rate allowed for BYU, number 114 for Iowa State's defense.
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: And both of these offenses, pretty good in the red zone.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: Who would have thought it? Who would have thought it?
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: As far as trends go, BYU 21-9 against the spread
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: since 2024. They are 15-7 off of a win. They
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: are 12-5 off of a cover. 8-3 to the over
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: off of an under. All three apply. Iowa State 11-7
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: against the spread off a win, but they are 3-8
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: to the over off of an over. Always comes back down, right?
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: BYU has got some injuries. Kind of lining up here.
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: And I'm curious what they're going to do getting ready
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: for the Notre Dame game. They've got a guard, a linebacker,
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: a running back, and a safety out. And their kicker, Laga,
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: is questionable. Iowa State's wide receiver, Pabst, is out with
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: a knee. Supposed to be 75 and calm in Provo.
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: But again, big time look ahead spot. Like huge look
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: ahead spot. Iowa State showed last week They can score
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: with them if you have it there. BYU, I didn't
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: think that their strength of schedule was this good, but
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: it's been okay. Number 33 in opponent PPA margin. Number
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: 28 offenses faced. Number 55 defenses faced. Iowa State, number
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: 80 in defenses faced. Number 51 in offenses faced. I mean,
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: this look-ahead spot has absolutely been priced in. I'm still
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: going to roll with it. I don't think BYU ends
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: up wiping these guys out. I think Iowa State showed
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: me enough. And Jimmy Rogers as a dog, I'll feel
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: pretty good with them. I'll feel pretty good with that.
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: He didn't cover at home against Utah. I don't think
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: BYU is a Utah type of team. Their explosiveness numbers
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: would certainly kind of show that. But also, Iowa State
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: doesn't allow explosiveness. So I think we get kind of
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: a slow plotting, you know, BYU just get out of
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: here without getting anybody hurt kind of game. I'm going
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: to go against the model. Give me Iowa State plus 10.5
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: in Provo. I think BYU is getting ready for Notre Dame.
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: And all you got to do is win this game.
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: It don't matter if you cover or not. And BYU
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: might just be like that much better. I mean, number
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: 58 in overall talent rank to number 88 for Iowa State.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: But I kind of get the feeling that this might
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: be an interesting spot on a Friday night. So give
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: me Iowa State plus 10.5 on the road.
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: Hi, this is TJ Reeves of Three Dog Thursday, the
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: only digital show devoted exclusively to college football underdogs. And
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: the only place to see it is right here on
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: the Winning Cures Everything platform. We love talking the pooches.
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: And last week, my co-host Jason Powers and I, six
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: for six with the underdogs. Thank you to Northwestern and
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: Missouri outright for me. Jason says thank you to Pitt
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: and also to Kentucky with that two-point play outright for him.
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: We also got UCF and Vanderbilt with the hook at Georgia.
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: What will the underdogs be this week? Find out with us.
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: Thursday mornings, it's Three Dog Thursday right here on the
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: Winning Cures Everything platform.
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: Shirts, hoodies, hats, and more. The latest WCE merch is
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: now available. Support and rep your favorite college football show today.
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: Just visit winningcureseverything.com slash store. Game number 11. And we're
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: talking the American Conference here. Tulsa at Navy. 2.30 p.m.
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: Central Time, CBS Sports Network in Annapolis. And I'm sure
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: some of you are like, what are you doing talking
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: about this game? And I understand that Navy has not
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: been nearly as good as people assumed that they would be.
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: And Tulsa, of course, coming off of a loss against
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: North Texas. I still feel like this is an intriguing spot.
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: Navy favored by 2.5 at home. The total is 48.5
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: to 49 points. That is down. The total is down
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: from 52.5. It went down to where I've got it.
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: So my model has the total at 50.32. It's already
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: gone past that. And my model has Tulsa power rated
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: minus one. And my stats model has Tulsa favored by
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: half a point. I'm looking at like three and a
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: half points of value on Tulsa here. Like, is it
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: pretty wild? Pretty wild. Um, Last week, I told you
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: Tulsa lost that Thursday night shootout to North Texas, 45-44,
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: but they did cover because that line flipped at the
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: last minute. Navy lost at Air Force 14-9. That's three
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: straight losses there, one and three. Tulsa beat Oklahoma State
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: in week one. The last meeting between these two teams
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: was last season. Navy won 42-23 over Tulsa. Next up,
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: Tulsa goes to Rice. Navy goes to UTSA. I mean,
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: we're not exactly talking about a real look-ahead spot for
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: either team here. Navy cannot throw the football. 20% success rate.
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: That's number 134 in the country. They still run it well.
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: Their ninth in rushing success. Tulsa is plus 1.2 in
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: turnover margin. Navy, they almost never take it away. Navy
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: is 116th in takeaways per game. Tulsa is number 9
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: in takeaways per game. Navy is number 102 in fumbles
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: lost per rushing attempt. Tulsa's defense is number 34 in
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: fumbles gained per rushing attempt allowed. Something to pay attention
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: to with this. Just saying. Navy gets outscored by 13
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: points in the first half. That's 123rd in the country.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: They come back in the second half. They're number 25
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: in second half point margin. Tulsa scored a touchdown on
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: 83% of their red zone trips. That's number 7 in
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: the country. But they are only number 126 in red
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: zone appearances per game. Navy's offense is number 124 in
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: red zone appearances per game. So who can finish drives, etc.
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: As far as this Navy offense, number 46 in points
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity, but this Tulsa defense is number 36.
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: Tulsa's defense... Pretty good against the run. Number 29 in
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: offensive line yards. They're number 22 in PPA allowed per rush.
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: I like their defensive line a lot. A lot here. However,
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: on the other side, Navy pretty good against the run.
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: That's what Tulsa is actually pretty good at. Number 18
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: in PPA per rush. They're not very good at throwing
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: the football. However, they haven't had their quarterback. You know, just...
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: Just throwing that out there. Tulsa has played the easier schedule.
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: Hence why Navy is favored in this game, even though
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: my stats model and the power rating has Tulsa. Trends here,
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: Tulsa in conference 13-4 to the over. And with what
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: this number has come down to, yeah, my number kind
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: of likes the over here. Navy at home 10-2 to
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: the over. That is a strong over setup on a
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: total under 50. But Tulsa off an ATS cover, they
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: are 2-9 head-to-head. Navy is 7-1. So, last eight meetings.
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: Just throwing it out there. Navy has, they've got two
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: running backs that are questionable, plus a tight end. Tulsa,
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: didn't see anything on the injury report. Is the quarterback back?
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: Quarterback feeling good? I think they might be able to
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: throw it better than what these numbers would suggest. I
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: feel pretty good about that. Weather's 68 and calm in
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: this one. So, don't have to worry about much as
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: far as that goes. I like this Tulsa team. And
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: Navy has been finding ways to lose games. Again, turnover margin,
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: they're number 99. Tulsa is number 13. I think that's
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: going to play a huge, huge part in this. Give
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: me Tulsa. Plus the 2.5. I think they win this
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: game outright. I feel pretty good about this. So I
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: will take Tulsa. Yeah, plus 2.5. And I'd probably... I'd
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: probably take him on the money line. Get you a
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: nice plus number there. Give me Tulsa plus two and
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: a half, even, well, I guess I'm siding with the model.
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: Stats model has Tulsa minus 5.28, or sorry, minus 5.8.
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: Power rating has Tulsa minus one. I'll side with that.
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: I'll side with that. Tulsa plus two and a half.
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: Game number 12, this is the biggest model gap that
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: I've got this week. North Carolina goes to Pitt. It's
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: 11 a.m. Central Time, God's time zone. On ESPN, Belichick
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: and the Nard Dog. I'm so in on this. Pitt
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: is favored by 3.5. That has come down. Pitt was
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: favored by 4. Total of 47 on this, so that's
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: gone up from 46.5, which makes sense because my stats
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: projected total has this thing close to 50, 49.83. My model,
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: my stats model, has Pitt minus 15.79. My power rating
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: has Pitt minus 12.5. We're talking 9 to 12 points
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: of difference. But there is a huge reason why. Let's
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: start with this. Last week, Pitt won a Friday night
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: game at Virginia Tech, 35-33 to go 5-0. They are
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: now ranked. Carolina lost to Notre Dame, 37-26. They covered.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: They looked competent. They looked adequate in that game. Year
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: two of Bill Belichick, they're 2-2. The last meeting, yeah. 2-2.
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: The last meeting between these two was in 2024. Pitt
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: won that one 34-24 over North Carolina. Pitt goes to
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: Boston College next. Then they go to Miami. Carolina goes
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: to Duke next week. So maybe a look ahead spot
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: for North Carolina. I don't think they can really overlook anybody,
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: to be completely honest. Pitt's defense, 7th in success rate allowed.
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: They're 12th in scoring, giving up only 13 a game,
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: which you can see right here, 13.4. North Carolina's defense
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: is not bad, but their offense is number 98 in
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: points per game on offense, 24 points per game. Now,
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: part of that has to do with the fact that
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: they have faced the seventh toughest defensive schedule in the country.
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: Just throwing it out there. Just throwing it out there.
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: Pitt allows, what, two yards a carry on offense? So
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: they're really good. against running football teams. And North Carolina
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: likes to throw the football more than, or around 52%
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: of the time. So Carolina's offense, not great. The defense
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: is 119th in rushing success allowed. It's not that Pitt
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: is great at that. They're number 79 in rushing success rate.
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: They've been really good throwing the football. So why is
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: the line only three and a half if I've got
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: such a discrepancy here? Two reasons. First, and the most
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: important one, Pitt's quarterback, Mason Heintzel, out with a leg.
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: He's out for the year. Not going to play. And
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: then the other part is Pitt's penalty problem. North Carolina
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: is number five in penalties per game. Pitt is number
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: 125 with 8.8. They're number 127 in penalty yards per game.
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: You're looking at a 26-yard-per-game difference between the two. Or sorry,
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: more than that. 51 yards per game difference. That is crazy. Crazy.
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: Carolina is pretty disciplined when it comes to penalties per game.
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: Pitt doesn't turn the ball over. Number four in giveaways
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: per game. Granted, they will have a new quarterback here.
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: Pitt as a home favorite, 9-3 against the spread, covering
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: by almost 12 points on average. Pitt is 11-6 off
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: of a straight-up win. Carolina, 10-18-1 against the spread since 2024.
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: They are 5-11-1 in conference. As far as the injuries,
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: you know about Heinzel. Carolina has four pass catchers out.
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: That ain't good. Weather is supposed to be 64 degrees
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: and dry. Pretty good day to play football up in Pitt. Explosiveness,
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: both these teams pretty explosive. It all kind of depends
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: on what the Pitt quarterback looks like. I think they're
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: going to be fine. I think this Pitt defense can
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: slow down North Carolina just fine. I think Pitt's offense
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: is going to be okay. No real issue. I'm intrigued.
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: I think this number has dropped a little too far.
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: I don't think Heinzel is worth more than 10 points.
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: I think Pitt still wins this by a touchdown. Especially
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: at home. Because right now, what you're saying is Mason
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: Heintzel came in and we think that the only thing
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: that you should give Pitt is home field advantage. We'll
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: say three and a half. That might be a little generous.
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: But even still, I think that's kind of crazy. I
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: think this team is significantly better than North Carolina everywhere
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: else on the field. So... And that's crazy, I know,
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: because overall talent rank, North Carolina number 34, Pitt number 53.
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: But I just think Narduzzi's teams are insanely well-coached, especially
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: on defense. Should be a fun matchup with Bobby Petrino
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: going up against... going up against the Nardog here. North
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: Carolina's offense, number 36 in offensive success rate, but they're
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: number 77 in PPA per drive on offense. So they're
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: kind of efficient... but kind of not. Like, number 65
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: in yards per rush, but they're number 14 in rushing
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: success rate. Number 70 in PPA per rush, but they're
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: number 6 in rushing explosiveness. Like... But, I mean, you're
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: running into the teeth of the Pitt defense. I like Pitt. Like,
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: it's the biggest gap on the board. I don't think
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: Heinzel was worth that much. Like, and that's not to
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: say that he wasn't a good quarterback. He is absolutely
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: a fantastic quarterback. But... I like Cade Bell. I like
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: what he's doing with that offense. I think they're going
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: to be fine at quarterback. I think they'll be all good.
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: Give me Pitt minus three and a half at home.
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: I think maybe the line has just shifted a little
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: too much, maybe a little too much love for Bill
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: Belichick and Bobby Petrino. I like Pitt at home, minus
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: three and a half. Game number 13, this is the
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: late game. Kansas has to go to Utah, 9.15 p.m.
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: Central Time, Saturday night on ESPN. Oh, man. This is
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: an interesting spot. Interesting spot. Utah minus 15.5, total 51.5.
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: So that total has come down a point, but the
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: spread has stayed the same. My model, the power rating
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 1: has Utah minus 17.3. My stats model has Utah minus 18.24.
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: My total, 52.22. A little bit of value on Utah.
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: Total's about right. Last week, Utah off of a bye.
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: They went at Iowa State. 31-17 to go 4-0 in
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: year one for Morgan Scali. Kansas beat Middle Tennessee like
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: a drum, 55-0. And I am one of the dumbasses
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: that bet Middle Tennessee plus 21.5 because I don't trust
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: this Kansas team. But neither here nor there. The last
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: meeting between these two was last November. Utah 31, Kansas 21.
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: Utah goes to Colorado next week. Kansas... Potentially a look
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: ahead spot with the Sunflower Showdown at K-State next week. Eh.
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: Kansas has two quarterbacks out. Ballard with the shoulder. Mason.
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: Isaiah Marshall started last week. That's going into a Utah
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: defense that allows 10 points a game. That's third in
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: the country. Utah also plus 24 in the first half.
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: That is number one in the country. Their first half
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: point margin is awesome. And it's not that Kansas is bad. Right?
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: Number 38 in first half point margin. But Utah just
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: runs teams out early. Just crushes their souls right off
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: the bat. Also probably helps that they have faced the
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: number 130 opponent PPA margin in the country. When you
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: start looking at this, yeah, it makes you question why
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: they think that Utah's schedule has been more difficult, at
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: least per Sagarin, than Kansas's. And I would guess that
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: some of that has to do with power rating more
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: so than PBA margin. But it's always nice to look
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: at these things because Kansas has faced the number 37
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: toughest passing offenses in the country. Other than that, there's
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: nothing that Utah has faced that's even really been much
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: of a threat. So Kansas' defense, pretty good as well.
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: They're number two in defensive success rate. I find that
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: interesting considering the fact that they have faced pretty good
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: passing offenses. And their passing defense has been okay. Number
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: 24 in QBR allowed, number 13 in yards allowed per attempt.
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 1: But I will not be able to get past. They
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: didn't look very good against Arizona State. They didn't look
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: very good at all against Missouri. But they kind of
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: crushed everybody else. Eh. I don't know. Kansas is at
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: minus one in turnover margin, number 121. Utah doesn't turn
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: it over, and they're really good at taking the ball away. Right? Utah, again,
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: who they have faced, it doesn't look very good PBA margin-wise.
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: Utah is a home favorite of 7-plus. They are 8-3
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: against the spread, if we're looking at trends. Utah, 17-10-1
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: against the spread overall since 2024. Kansas, 4-7 against the
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: spread on the road. 7-13-1 to the over with a
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: total of 52.5 or higher, which... This one just misses that.
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: It was 52.5, but it's come down. Kansas has got
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: some running backs out. Something to pay attention to on that.
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: Weather should be around 70 degrees, close to it. 44%
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: chance of rain. If that is the case, Utah, I'm
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: so curious whether or not Kansas' rushing defense is going
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: to be up to snuff. Are they legitimately good Or
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: is it the fact that they have faced the number
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: 127 toughest rushing PPA offenses in the country? I'm going
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: to trust the model in this. Utah at home, Saturday night,
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: not really a look-ahead spot at all. I think they
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: could dog-walk Kansas because I think that they are that
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: much better. Number 33 in overall talent rank compared to
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: number 66 for Kansas. Remember, Missouri won at Kansas 38-21.
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: I think this Utah team is as good as Missouri. Maybe.
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: Especially with the style of offense that they run. They
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 1: got some cool tricks up their sleeves. Again, stats model,
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: Utah minus 18.24. Power rating, Utah minus 17. I'm going
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: to take Utah minus the 15.5. I think they cover
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: at home. I think they handle this Kansas team. And
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: Utah just going to keep doing this thing because they've
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: got an easy enough schedule. They might be able to
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: just walk into that Big 12 title game. Man, I
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: can't wait for the Holy War. I can't wait at all.
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: Utah minus 15.5 on this one. Game number 14, North
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: Dakota State at UNLV. This one's 6 p.m. Central Time
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 1: on the CW. It's inside Allegiant Stadium. North Dakota State,
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: minus 3.5 is our line here with a total of 47.5
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 1: to 48 roundabout. Came down from 49.5. Interesting. The spread
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: stayed the same. Total has come down a little bit.
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: The Bison are road favorites against an FBS team. Power
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: rating has North Dakota State minus 1. My stats model
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: has North Dakota State minus 5 on this. So the
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: two models disagree on the side, but the market sits
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 1: right in between them. And then my total, I mean,
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: right there. 47.5 to 48.5. My total has it 48.5.
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: Close enough. Close enough. Last week, North Dakota State shut
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: out Wyoming 28-0. They are 5-0. They have already won
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 1: at Air Force already this year. UNLV beat Cal last
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 1: week 39-31. Jackson Arnold had three touchdown passes. He had
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 1: two rushing touchdowns. Dan Mullen's team is 3-2. The last
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: meeting between these two, I can't find one. I don't
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 1: think they've ever met. This is an interesting, interesting matchup,
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 1: which is why I'm going over it. Next up, North
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: Dakota State gets Nevada, or Nevada. UNLV goes to Air Force.
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: Not really a look-ahead spot here. North Dakota State's defense
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: is number one in the country in points allowed at 9.8
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: points per game. That's awesome. That's awesome. They're number one
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: in points per drive. They're number one in red zone defense.
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: They are plus 1.6 in turnovers. That is fourth as
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 1: far as turnover margin. UNLV's offense is 126th in success
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: rate and 128th in passing success. Where is it? There
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: it is. Number 128 in passing success rate. They're not
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: good throwing the football, but they're also not very good
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 1: running the football either. It also has something to do
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: with the fact that, well, no, I take that back.
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: They played Memphis, and Memphis kind of handled them early.
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: But other than that, they have played some pretty easy
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 1: offenses and pretty easy defenses. They're number 134, most difficult
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: schedule against defenses faced. North Dakota State number 83 in
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: defensive PBA faced this year. Neither of these teams has
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: exactly played a murderer's row. North Dakota State number 173
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: in Sagarin strength of schedule. UNLV number 91. Neither team, like,
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: has played anybody really difficult, right? Their opponents rank 132nd
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 1: and 125th. As far as trends go, North Dakota State,
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: 18 and 13 against the spread since 2024. They are
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: 17 and 10 to the over as a favorite. As
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: a road favorite of three plus, North Dakota State is
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: four and six. UNLV is 12 and nine against the
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: spread off of a win, which they just had over Cal.
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: North Dakota State, as far as injuries, they got 12
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: guys on the report. That includes the quarterback, Nelson. And
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 1: they've got five running backs that are questionable. Nathan Hayes
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 1: played quarterback last week. He's going to keep doing. Nathan
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: Hayes is good. He's good. UNLV has three receivers that
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 1: are questionable. They weren't great throwing the football anyway. I
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 1: don't know that they would have a ton of success
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 1: against this North Dakota State defense anyway. They're playing it
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 1: in a dome. It's in Allegiant Stadium. I don't trust UNLV.
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: They're not exactly explosive. North Dakota State doesn't allow explosives anyway.
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 1: When I look at turnover margin, when I look at defense,
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: when I look at just everything, penalties, whatever else, I mean,
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 1: it kind of screams North Dakota State. I wish there
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: wasn't a hook here because I think it could get
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 1: interesting if Dan Mullen finds a way to do it,
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: but I feel like the line of scrimmage North Dakota
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 1: State is just going to be awesome Certainly the roster
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 1: strength would not point to that. And UNLV has some
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: interesting pieces as far as skill talent goes. But I
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 1: think North Dakota State, they're going to hold on to
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 1: the football. They play slow, number 119 in pace of play.
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 1: UNLV is number 56. But UNLV is not exactly efficient either.
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 1: So if they play fast and they give the ball
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 1: back to North Dakota State, that's where it gets a
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 1: little tricky. North Dakota State hasn't been good running the football,
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 1: but even still, I'm going to go with the road dog.
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 1: I've seen plenty from North Dakota State this year. The
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: line of scrimmage, they are really, really good. I kind
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: of think that they could end up going undefeated against
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 1: this schedule. So give me North Dakota State minus three
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: and a half here. Last game of the night, Boise
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 1: State at Fresno State, 9.30 p.m. Central Time on the CW.
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 1: Boise minus 6.5. That is down from 7.5. Total is
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: 48 to 48.5. That is sitting pretty exactly where it
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 1: was on Sunday. The model has Boise minus 6.1 as
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: far as the power rating. The stats model has Boise
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: State minus 6.32 with a total of 50.5 on this.
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 1: Sides about right, small over lean on this one. Last week,
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 1: Boise beat up on Utah State 37-18. They didn't cover.
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 1: Maddox Madsen 17-21, passing the ball, looked really good. Fresno
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 1: won at Wazoo. They beat Washington State 26-6. Both teams
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 1: are 4-1. The last meeting between these two was last November.
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 1: Fresno State 30, Boise State 7. That was on the
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 1: blue turf. Different Boise team this year. That was without
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 1: Maddox Madsen, by the way. Next up, Boise has a bye.
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 1: Fresno has to go to San Diego State. It's certainly
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 1: not a look-ahead spot, but still. Looking at what has
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 1: happened here, Fresno lives on turnovers. Plus 1.6, that's fourth
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 1: in the country. They're number 21 in giveaways per game,
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 1: number four in takeaways per game. Boise hasn't thrown an
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 1: interception this year. Like, they're number one in interceptions per pass.
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: They have not thrown one. But they are number 66
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: in fumbles lost per rush. Fresno, number 27 in fumbles
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: gained per rushing attempt face. Fresno's run game, 134th in
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 1: rushing success. Fresno scores a touchdown on only 48% of
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 1: red zone trips. That's number 122 in the country. That
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: ain't good. And yet, and yet, they're number 85 in
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity. Boise's defense is number 18 in
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 1: points allowed per scoring opportunity. That is a first down
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 1: inside the opponent 40-yard line. Boise does give up explosive plays.
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: That's something to pay attention to. Rushing explosiveness, number 105.
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 1: Passing explosiveness, number 128. Fresno is number 70 in offensive explosiveness.
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 1: They're number 68 in passing explosiveness and number 62 in
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: rushing explosiveness. So maybe they can take advantage of that.
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 1: It's going to be a slow game. I know that. No.
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 1: 117 in pace of play for Fresno, No. 133 for Boise.
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 1: As far as trends, Fresno unders 11-19 to the over overall,
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 1: 3-8 as a dog, 2-9 with a total between 45-49.
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 1: Matt Entz is 6-11 to the over. Boise 12-8-2 against
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 1: the spread off of a win. Not a great sample size. Well,
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 1: I take that back. It's, you know, 22 games. But
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 1: 12-8-2 against the spread off of a win. Better than 50%.
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: That's good. Head-to-head, the overs are 2-7. Small. So the
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 1: trends say under. The model says over. It's not like
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 1: the model is screaming for an over here by any stretch.
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 1: As far as injuries, Boise's wide receiver Bates, their running
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 1: back Gaines are questionable. Everything looks good as far as
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 1: Fresno is concerned. Fresno... has been playing some easy, easy
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 1: football teams. Boise faced Oregon, Memphis, and then just went
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 1: and shellacked Western Michigan, who isn't great by any stretch
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: of the imagination, but the fact that they went and
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 1: did it in Kalamazoo, that was impressive. Weather's supposed to
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 1: be 79 and calm for the kick here. I understand
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 1: that the model has come down, so the market likes
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 1: Fresno in the spot. The stats model has Boise minus 6.32.
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 1: That is under the 6.5. The power rating has Boise
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 1: minus 6.1. That is under the 6.5. However, this is
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 1: a revenge spot game. Fresno hasn't really played anybody. And
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: the Fresno offense is not good. Maybe they can be
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 1: explosive here. But on a down-to-down basis, I don't expect
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 1: them to be very good. I got to go Boise.
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 1: I've got a Fresno to win the Pac-12 ticket. I'm
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 1: not seeing that come to fruition at all. I will
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 1: take Boise to cover here. Boise minus 6.5. I think
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 1: they're going to make an example of Fresno State this weekend.
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 1: If you want to get these sheets, you can do
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: that every single week. You can support the show as well.
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 1: $ 5 a month, $ 50 for the year. BuyMeACoffee.com slash WinningCures.
• 1:33:49
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• 1:33:51
  Speaker 1: of these games that I've gone over on the YouTube shows,
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 1: they will be over there as well. Cheers to PrizePix again.
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: Thank them for coming on board. Good gracious, I'm excited
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 1: about it. Let me go on and tell you, the models,
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 1: the trends, like all of it, I build all of it.
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 1: I give it away on the show. If it has
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 1: helped you at all, buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures. That helps keep
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 1: the spreadsheets running. It helps me keep going because I'm
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 1: recording this at, it is after midnight. It's been a
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 1: long week and it's only Tuesday and I still got
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 1: to get up and go to work in the morning.
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 1: So quick recap of what we kind of have gone over.
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 1: The biggest gap of the week is Pitt minus three
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 1: and a half. Model says 12 to 16. Of course,
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 1: there's the Heinzel news as well. So like, you know
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 1: what's up there. UCF plus nine and a half to
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 1: 10 and a half. Model says it should be five
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 1: to seven. Tulsa plus two and a half. The model
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 1: has Tulsa winning. BYU minus 10.5. I think they priced
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 1: in too much that Notre Dame look ahead. Or maybe
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 1: not priced in too much, but I'm going with the
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 1: dog there, so it is what it is. The model
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 1: likes the under in Arizona, West Virginia. Market 61. The
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 1: model has 55. Wake, NC State, and FSU in Louisville
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 1: it likes under. It does like the over in BYU,
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 1: Iowa State. Market has 46.5. The model has 52.5, so
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: pretty big jump there. Overs also in LSU, Kentucky, North Carolina, Pitt,
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 1: and Illinois, Michigan State. But, I mean, the Illinois, Michigan
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 1: State spy, that's an ugly-looking game right now. Look at spots.
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 1: Ohio State laying 34.5 with Indiana next week. So, watch
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 1: the back door there with Maryland. BYU has Notre Dame next.
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 1: Florida State has Miami next. Michigan State has Fitzgerald against
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 1: Northwestern on deck. I think that game is going to matter,
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 1: big time. As far as weather, biggest thing to watch for,
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 1: there's going to be wind in Atlanta, rain chances in
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 1: Salt Lake. Yeah. Don't forget about Three Dog Thursday. Three
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 1: Dog Thursday with TJ and Jason coming up tomorrow. And then,
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 1: of course, I'll have the Friday podcast for the audio-only
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 1: version of the podcast. If you haven't subscribed there, go
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 1: ahead and do that. Leave a nice five-star written review. Apple, Spotify,
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 1: whatever your favorite podcast app is, go ahead and check
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 1: it out. With that said, let's get out of here.
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 1: Until next time, take care of yourself. Take care of
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 1: each other. God bless college football and hopefully all of
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 1: your tickets cash this week. Thanks for listening to Winning
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 1: Cures Everything. Subscribe, leave a review or comment. Follow at
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 1: GaryWCE on X and check out the web store.