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The Favorites - NFL Week 17 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's the Favorites Podcast presented by FanDuel. It's NFL playoff time,
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• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: I'm Chad Noman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I am joined as I am in every episode by
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, my compadre, professional letter Simon Hunter.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Mary day after Boxing Day, saw him in did you
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: enjoy your Boxing Day Chat at the Premier League Games?
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Other than the fact that I woke up on Boxing
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Day to an alert from the airline I was flying
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: that my flight later that day was canceled and then
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: which meant the vacation we were going on was canceled,
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: which meant that I spent the next four hours trying
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: to figure out different places we could go with the
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: airline tickets to no avail. So I'm still in Connecticut.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: It was a great day. It's a great day. I
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: will say I've been dreading this moment. I had my
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: worst betting weekend of my life, lost more money than
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: I ever have um the Patriots was a kick in
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: the dick, losing that by half a point. The next
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: atra point guy fumbling on the five with a minute
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: left to go ahead for the score. The Eagles being
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: up by ten twice two turnovers in the final two
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: minutes of the game, giving up a third and thirty
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: with seven minutes left, losing that game by half a point.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: The Bears lost, so that was good because now that
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: confirmed are under for the season win total. The Colts
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: last night were an abomination. You know, we went two
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: and three, but in the contest you can update us
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: on where we stand on that. We lost Foxhole, we
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: lost Simon says, we lost the Colt. We lost big balls.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: The only thing that one was your Carolina plus two
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: and a half Scoot troop let a truly terrible, terrible
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: weekend yea and again and some of it most I
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: would say most of it's on me. Where the Saints
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: were my second biggest bet, and we didn't put it
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: in the contest because it was two and a half
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: because I think the live line was three and a half.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: So that sucked, but not our best showing. I would
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: say picking three games this late in a year on
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: a Tuesday comes with risk, and we walked into those risks,
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: especially with that cold swan Lucky. I got a decent
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: amount of money down on the Chargers first half, just
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: to get some type of hedge because I thought, when
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: I said on the show, I thought Nick Foles would
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: be rusty after not practicing with the first team for
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: three months. He came out through I think three interceptions
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: in the first quarter. So, um, just a disaster with
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: those games. But I don't know. I had a fun weekend.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: I'll be honest with you, chat. I thought people can
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: playing about the games. I thought they were pretty good
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: games overall. Um, what was it? Three dogs covered? Like yeah,
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: Carol Line, it was a great game. A lot of
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Carolina with a lot of New Orleans. I told you,
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: I told you, and I had the weirdes sleep schedule ever.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: But basically, like my job is kind of a great
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: yard job where I told you, I basically woke up
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: on Friday at ten o'clock and I just worked from
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: whatever that was ten thirty un till one pm kickoff
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Saturday betting the Panthers. I told you, I just stayed
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: up all night betting. Then anytime they touched three I
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: was betting on that it kept been at two and
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: a half. Uh so one of those games where when
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: the game kicked off, I felt so sick to my
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: stomach about Sam Donald and al had right now because
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: I think I gave it out, gave it on the show,
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: I gave it out on UM convinced me, and I
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: gave it out in my written best bets, and it
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: was just like a tiedier the Sam Donald. But thank
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: god they just ran the ball. So yeah, it's it's
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: always rough chat and we have a down we week
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: on the show, um, but somehow we just keep these bullets.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: We only went two and three in the contest again,
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: so still high up, still on the money. Most people
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: laid eggs this week. Um, not ideal, but still our
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: worst week we've had. It is week seventeen, the worst
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: week we had all year's two and three, so pretty
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: pretty special year overall. Where are we in the contest
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: right now? What place I would have to look, But
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: I'd say we're still in the top fifty. It's like
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: it's it's all right there though. You know if we
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: if we went five and oh, we could be top five.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: It's that neck and neck, um, at this point of
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: the year especially we already talked about these there's people
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: that haven't used their BIS yet, so that's a huge
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: advantage for them. Where they're behind us right now, they
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: could use that by week. I mean, you go two
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: and three like we just did and they jump us
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: a little bit. So it's really gonna come down the wire.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Um that's the goal though, like we know, the deal
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: is the money really drops off after the top ten.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: That's I mean, we're dying, dying to get in that
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: top ten to get a nice pay day. So, um,
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: two weeks left here, Chad, and it's we're gonna run
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: through these lines here. It gets pretty murky coming up.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Um there there's some there's a lot of a lot
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: of questions. We don't know what teams are starting with.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: Teams are sitting players because this week doesn't matter for
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: somewhere next week does, and vice versa, where this week
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: matters some teams and next week won't. So um, pretty
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: interesting week coming up here, these next two weeks. Just
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: be careful if you're gonna try bet early lines. Let's
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: get to it. Let's find our winners. Cowboys visiting the
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Titans Thursday Night Football Cowboys are ten point favorites on
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: the road, as he would imagine early percentages bets on
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys money on the Titans. I mean, the fund
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: are you gonna do? You got a ten point underdog
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: at home on a Thursday night against a team like
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys that everyone is starting to say, Oh my god,
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: they're legit contenders again. And the Titans, you know, just
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: had a bad, ugly loss to the Texans with a
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: backup quarterback who looked out of his depth. Yeah, yeah,
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: this is gonna be a great, a great Biolo spot
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: on this Tennessee Titans. But what are we gonna do?
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: We don't know what rabels are gonna do. You already
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: said they might make a couple of decisions and just
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: rest guys for that game against Jacksonville because this game
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: truly easy relevant to them, doesn't matter if they want
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: or lose. All that matters is next week single with Jacksonville.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: So um, I don't know. We we do an Action
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Island shows, We're gonna have to talk about this game
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: and I'll have to force some plays out. But I
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: really wouldn't. I honestly would just probably take a really
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: small stance at the ten on in Tennessee. Like you
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: just said, if if Derrick Henry plays, okay, that's a
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: big deal. If they're resting Derrick Henry, I don't know.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: It's just like what am I doing here? Am I
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: really backing Tennessee? Here? Is you know, it's no no
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: shots to their quarterback. Like Chad just said it, the
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: guy can't throw the ball downfield, so it's like a
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: defense like Houston did. They just put literally nine men
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: ten men in the box, had one guy back and said, yeah,
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: go ahead and pass it. So um crazy, Chad that Tennessee.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: That was one of my bigger bets with them on
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: the under for the season win totals and the jaguarston
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: win this division. We were dead. We were dead when
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: they were seven and two. Uh and you just truly
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: never know football. So um yeah, it's It's a week
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: where I wanted to be able over Tennessee, but I
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: just guess I ought to pass on it because I
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: don't really know what to do with this line. By
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: the way, Action Island you mentioned, presented by our friends
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: at FanDuel and that will be Thursday night PM. Me
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Simon Joe Gallant, Vegas refund the whole gang talking about
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: that Thursday night football game. Actual Network ah Q, Actual
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: Network app YouTube. Uh Brown's Boy, that game was ugly.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, look, I love watching these really cold weather games.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: I thought it made for just fascinating looks at football.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: Um and as ugly as that Saints Brown's game was,
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: I thought it was just really fun to see them
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: be so uncomfortable. Uh, DeShawn Utson chief among them. Yeah,
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: a half point underdogs against the Commanders. Boy run RIVERA.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: They're down fourteen to seven, middle of the third five
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: they go for the fourth down that blew the game
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: wide open. That went from a tightly controlled under with
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: the Commanders having a shot to cover to the Commanders
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: getting blown out and it being like a huge, huge
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: cover for the over. Yeah. And I think a lot
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: of people are staying and where Washington they had a
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: crazy run the middle of the season, and it kind
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: of feels like it all flipped on him. It kind
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: of cut up to him where the luck ran out.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: The book was out on Haineke. Obviously, if me and
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: Chat would have got word that they were going to
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: make a QB switch of Heineke struggled, it probably wouldn't
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: put in the contest, like knowing that Rivera had told
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: him that before the game. Um, I saw whatever was
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: Jay Glazer report that like a half hour before kickoff?
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Bad spot, bad spot to put Heineke in just a
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: little bit of struggle. They took him out. Put Winson,
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: Um crazy, Washington was really ascending, Uh tied. The Giants
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: had to buy a week and now they've just been losing.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: So I would love to take them here against the
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: Brown's team that they just look lost every since Watson
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: came back. Um was he have three touchdowns and three
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: games or something crazy like that, and he was terrible
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: the other day. Yeah, no, seriously, So I don't know
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: what to really do with this on another game where
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: it's under three. So they're stuck in me and they
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: want me to take Washington, So I probably will, but
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: no real read. Both these teams just you know, not
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: that their seasons are over for their Browns, but their
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: season is. Washington still has a chance of the playoffs,
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: So I guess I give the slight lean towards Washington here.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: I don't think Washington with Carson Wentz or table behind
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: the key right now is a strong play like if
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: we're talking, if we're talking contests, we've gotta go five
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: and oh uh, you know we don't get any more
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: bye weeks. Every game counts for us. We're trying to
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: get in the money. We're not putting Washington in there.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: It's a nice matchup though, where you can't run at all.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: Its forty niners and on the flip side of the Browns,
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: anyone's gonna run on them. So Robinson, that's a great
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: matchup for a guy who's been outstanding these last couple
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: of weeks. So that's another where it's like, I'm gonna
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: break this one down, look more into I do think
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: there might be a big, big advantage in the trenches
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: towards this Washington team. Especially. I know Chase Young didn't
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: do much last week, but that's that's a big deal
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: getting him back without Washington front. He actually played pretty well.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: He had a couple of nice plays when he did play.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Did you see him liked up or no? No, no,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: it was it was just interesting hear him talk about
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: Bosa because they were teammates at Ohio State, and yeah,
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: obviously Bose is a freak, but like just hearing him
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: talk about what makes him a freak. Which is interesting
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: is talking about how he's got these little stump legs.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: That's what gives him this really low center of rat
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: like cenator gravity, uh nick Boson, and that's why he's
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: so good. And you know, you watched the phone and
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: it's like, Okay, there's a reason this guy's on pace
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: for twenty sacks this season, breaking their record. Um now
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: the forty nine team, and we're not we're gonna talk
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: about them in a minute, but they're a juggernaut, that's
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: for sure. Boy, I mean they have We can talk
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: about him in a minute. You know how I feel
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: about caution. I can't believe they lost eleven and ten
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: to Denver earlier in the year. It's so freaking weird.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: Who knows, Maybe you know, bro October is now brock
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: all fall. Shout out to Bets on Campus podcast, Dolphins
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: boy on the on the road at the Patriots. Even
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: with the quarterback news about two and not knowing if
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: he's going to be the starter this week, this number
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: hasn't moved. It's two and a half. Bets on the Dolphins,
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: money on the Patriots. I thought it flipped. We're Dolphins
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: favorite and flip to them being dog. Oh yeah it
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: has I just had to squint for a second. Yeah,
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: it's totally flipped right. So and that makes more sense
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: where we are, not that we got lucky. We got
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: a little lucky on that Green Bay one. It was
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: twenty and ten. Two was playing really well. We solved
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: the hit his head slams the turf. That was that
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: like the rest of the game. You can look, you
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: can literally look exactly when he took that hit, the
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: numbers before and then the numbers after. Clearly played the
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: rest of that game of concussion and played horribly. I
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: mean those throws awful, like he was overthrowing guys. Then
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: he was telling them plays and throwing to a different
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: spot because they were running a route for the play
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: he told them, but he didn't remember what play you
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: told them. So we got really lucky with that Green
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: Bay one. We'll touch on that as we go alonger
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: in Green Bay. But Miami with Teddy, you assume they'd
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: be able to be good. And we love Teddy as
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: a dog. I mean, Chad, we've made a lot of money. Um,
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: he's one of those guys that I just his whole career.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: I'd blindly take him as a dog. I dare the
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: books that give us a plus three in this matchup
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: if they give us a plus three auto grab on
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: Miami two and a half. I just do nothing in
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: this game. It's just I I look at this as
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: a game where we would always take the Patriots. But
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: this just isn't the Patriots team we are used to
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: these last couple of years. Like they're just so sloppy
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: special teams, so sloppy defensively, so sloppy offensively. I mean,
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: the Pictriots fans, they are finally they finally feel what
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: we've all felt, probably for what they're doing for twenty years,
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: when most fan bases feel almost every other year. It's
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: just a lot of questions with this team right now,
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: and I just I can't back them in this spot.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: I would just take Teddy to three. So oh wait,
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: hopefully gets to three. I saw a couple of books
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: pop three. I didn't get any money down. They moved
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: right back to two and a half, So hopefully it
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: gets back up to three. Somebody got the money down.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: Who do you think I had the money down? Like?
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: What sharp grout? Yeah, I mean it's just one of
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: those where like they're probably up all night. I mean,
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: I'm not doing that on a Monday, but they probably
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: stayed up and just anytime it popped up, they hit
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: the books with it. So it makes sense. So because
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: again this number two and a half too, with the
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: backup that's that's fair. Like Miami's the better team, but
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: they're on the road with a backup quarterback. This this
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: number should be exactly what it is, two and a half. Three.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: And by the way, anyone who says the half pins
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: don't matter, the half yards don't matter did not watch
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: the games this weekend. I mentioned the Eagles five and
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: a half. Close to the Eagles, we bet him at
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: five and a half the game end at six. We've
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: bet the Bengals three and a half the game into four.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: By the way, how about Christian Watson forty nine yards
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: in the first half? His yardage total was fifty and
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: a half. How about Mark Andrews like it was under
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: out of forty six and a half? It landed that
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: the books are sharp. Brother Jesus, you know I forgot
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: about that Mark Andrews one and I saw you had
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: that long catch for thirty six yards. I'm like, well,
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: there goes that one, all right, Uh, Cardinals visiting the Falcons.
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: I mean the games at three and a half right now,
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: it feels like a epitome of a corner TV game.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: I think people are gonna started picking up on a
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: pattern this week of like not that we have weeks
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: we absolutely love, but like last week, the dec amount
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: of games I like, I liked on Tuesday. This week
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: it feels like they're all like this arias in the
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: Falcons game, where it's just gross. I don't really know
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: what to really do with it. The lines feel right
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: like this is this, this is the right line, Like
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: Arizona is bad. They have a backup, third strink quarterback plane.
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: I mean the Atlanta. They've showed some flashes, right, but
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: we know exactly what they are as well. So to me,
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: this line should be minus three minster and a half
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: for Atlanta because they can run the ball. They're very
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: dominant when they get the running game going. Everyone is
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: terrible against the run. So another game of the strength
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: of Atlanta is running the ball. They're at home, no
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: real read, I'll just take them. Hopefully you can get
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: the three because the Minster and a half. Obviously that's
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: not ideal, but that's it feels like a sucker bed
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: where I know most guys we just finally take the Cardinals. Um,
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: but after they played so well last week at home,
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: I could in a prime time game, right, I just
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: laying an egg here at one o'clock start in Atlanta
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: against just an unaspiring both East two gonna inspiring where
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: I think Atlanta is automatically outright of the playoff race,
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: so they're not playing for anything either. So another game
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: I'm just I'm not gonna have much winning on. Yeah,
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: I want to skip that one because it's like backup quarterbacks,
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: you know, Desmond Ritter and god knows who else. Jaguars Texans,
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: this is it, buddy. We love the Jaguars, but four
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: points on the road against the Texas team that in
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: the last three weeks. We'll at what they've done in
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: the right win on the road in very difficult circumstances,
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: nearly beat the Cowboys, played strong against the Chiefs. I
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: can see why the bets are coming in on the Jaguars,
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: But the money to an extraordinary extent, is coming in
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: on the Texans at as four point home underdogs. Foxholl
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: got it, you know me, regardless of what's going on.
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to its aim. I
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: commits to a city. I'm a fox old Yeah. And
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: honestly that money poured in. It was people like me
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: that just poured in earlier where I could see Doug
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: Doug eep sitting his players, and I keep getting back
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: to this where this game doesn't matter to the Jaguars.
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: All that matters is next week. So maybe plays them
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: for the first half and they if they're in it,
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: they'll keep playing, and if they're losing, maybe the arrest
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: them second half. I'm not sure what Doug is gonna do,
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: but I just know Houston this team these last couple
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: of weeks, like you just said, they've been playing really
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: inspired football. And then you look at the history of
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: these two teams. Houston always owns the Jaguars, like they
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: just always play well against the Jaguars team. So the
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: fact that it is for is honestly a little shocking.
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: I thought it would have dropped the three by now.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: Someone think giving me pause, But we'll just take the
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: early week value. We'll grab the four, and we'll deal
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: with that later. If there if this is a bad line,
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: we're stepping into But it just feels like a good number,
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: especially on a team that I still think a general
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: public is kind of out on the Texans, where you know,
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: if only we had just been riding them these last
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: couple of weeks. Um, it was funny, Teach. I was
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: looking at the data, like, you know, just a historical year,
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: Joe Burrow, what is he now? Twelve and three eight
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: t s And then you flip side Tom Brady He's
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: three and twelve a ts. Those are just such extremes.
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: That's rare that happens in the same season. But this
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: Jaguars team, yeah, playing out of this world. I'm just
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: I'm just worried they're gonna rest starters here. So for me,
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: Houston to plus four, that's that's a smart player. Early
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: in the week, Matt Mitchell just asked us and Slack,
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: do we have any concern about Houston fighting for the
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: number and draft pick? No, Like, I don't think, I
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: don't think. I just don't think teams do that, and
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: I don't think this team does that because don't forget, hey,
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: Lovey Smith historically has just been a guy who fights
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: to win and gets his players to play for him.
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: But be these guys are playing for next season too,
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: Like you want to put good things on tape, even
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: if you're not going to be with the Texans. You
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: want to stay in the NFL. Everyone sees that, so
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: no one's going to try any less. Take yeah, and
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: people lost their minds. I don't know if it was
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: last year before, but like I am the worst person
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: in by far in football world that knows anything to
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: do with playoff draft positions. Where it's like like next
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: week we were like, well, this team needed to make
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: a playoffs. This team doesn't. Isn't that team just not
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: gonna try? That never works out. I mean just last year,
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: I think it was, Miami was playing the Patriots at home,
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: huge underdog Patriots need to win the game and move
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: up to a certain spot in that playoffs. Miami one outright.
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: The Jaguars were playing at home against the Colts. The
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: Colts needed to win the get in with Carson Wentz
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence did nothing. They were they were literally terrible
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: ast for Jaguars. They beat them out right in the
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: final week of the year. So just be careful if
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: you're just blindly betting on teams that need to get
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: in and teams that don't need to get in Texans
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: yet their their ownership I know for a fact. And
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: the gms, why wouldn't they want to lose this game?
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: They wanted to have that number one pick. But we've
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: just seen time and time again that the coaches don't care.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: I mean the Jets, they they didn't get Trevor Lawrence
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: because's some meaningless game in December where their special teams
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: guy returned to kick and they beat the Rams at home,
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: so they got Zack Wilson instead. So yeah, most gms
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: they want that number one pick because that the destinies
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: and their control. It's it's the coaches that don't care.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: So to me, Lovey Smith doesn't care. Like he's had
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: his guys playing right these last couple of weeks. I
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: trust him to keep continue that this week, So plus
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: four give it to me. The point, the larger point
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: is forget about this the moment and the circumstances. If
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: we saw a a divisional game with a road team
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: as more than a field goal favorite, we would play that.
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: And now we've got we've got layered on circumstances. It's
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: a nice spot. We're going to get more out of
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• 23:41
  Speaker 1: The culture a terrible team. I'm really curious to see
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: what happens with this team in the off season, who
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: their coaches, who their quarterback is. I feel like they're
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: starting from scratch, like they've really got nothing. At this point.
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: We think their offensive line is great and last night
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: they couldn't get two ft. You know, their defense really
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: held it together, but in the end they still give
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: up a lot of points and to a Charger's team
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: that has been very inconsistent this year. So I don't
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: want to bet the Giants is five point favorites at home. Yea.
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: Now the interesting to think about the line thing is
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: like and we were I mean I was definitely on it.
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: You can you go back and listen. I think we did,
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: uh ship man, it might have been like a Week
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: one preview and like may we're given our Week one bets.
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: And I literally talked about in that show the fact
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: that there was all these questions coming to the year
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: of that Colts left side of their offensive line, and
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: we've seen it this year. I mean, they give up
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: lots of pressures. They're just not the same team they were.
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: They don't have that foundational offensive line that just you know,
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: scares everyone. Yeah, the right side is really strong, but
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: clearly there's there's a big weakness on that old line.
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: But the Colds team, if this was Week seven auto bet,
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: no doubt smashing the Colts. But this is the time
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: of year where teams just simply quit, and if you
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: don't have a good leader in the house, that will
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: give up on that leader. And we saw last year
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: with the Giants. The Giants in the year we're dreadful
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: every week, I know, really smart groups that are hammering
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: the Giants because they're again three points of value tons
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: of value on the Giants team to their number. But
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: the reason that against much values because that team had
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: quit and they got caught with that. So I'm not
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: getting caught here, Like I bet Giants of minus three
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: taking the three and a half. It's it's steamed up
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: out of five. And if it's Nick Foles cheat, I
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: could be talking and taking this Giants team at that
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: number just because they're at home with that defense against
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: the cold scene. That just I mean, they seemed to quit.
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: It's like the Broncos. I mean, the Broncos fired their
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: head coach because that team straight up quit on him.
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: So um, I don't think they'll fire Saturday. Even better,
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: like they're gonna keep the guy there that all these
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: guys don't like apparently, so um hilarious. I mean, you
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: look at those he won that one game? Was that
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: the first game he coached he won first game, and
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: Jim Mary said, you know, came out puffing his chest
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: talking ship to people, saying like, how could you say
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: this about it? How could you doubt us? All we
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: care about is winning. Just win baby, whatever the hell
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: he tweeted, he looks like an idiot, Like they've lost
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: five straight or sixth straight now, so, um, I can't
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: do it. I know all the values on the Colts,
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: don't care. If you move it up to seven, I'll
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: start thinking about the Colts, But six six and a half,
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: I'd still take this Giant's team at this point. It's interesting,
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: what is the the line of demarcation, the timeline that
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: is necessary two be able to boast right from when
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: you made a decision to when you can tell that
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: decision paid off. We know it's not one game, you know,
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: it's not a half. Like we come on here all
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: the time and talk about the people who come after
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: us on Twitter when the team we bet on is
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: getting killed in the first half. The Patriots great example
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: this week, right, they were down what twenty two and nothing,
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: with the Patriots a chance to win the game with
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: a minute left, Like you know, the arc of the
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: universe is long, man g mersctation no better. So the
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: Broncos are interesting to me. They're now thirteen and a
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: half point underdogs on the road at the Chiefs, and
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: look their defense, their defense obviously the whole thing, just
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: the wheels came off the other day against the against
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: the Rams and Baker Mayfield. You know, of all the
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: things that I did badly this weekend, I was undisciplined.
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: I overbet, I was confident. I made every mistake you
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: can make. I didn't manage my bank roll well Denver.
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: I did not bet on Denver God, and so I
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: skipped that game. I felt really good. I like ske
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: so close to pull on the trig out on the Broncos.
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: Plus three. It was four fifteen in the afternoon. I'm
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: watching the NBA games and the Broncos are coming on,
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: and I'm thinking, seems like people are really liking Denver here,
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: and I'm like, I can't do this. So I didn't
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: do it. Felt great. It might have been the best
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: decision I made all weekend. Yeah, I had the under unfortunately,
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: so that got smoked. But I literally said that to me.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: I was like, I said to myself, I go, how
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: the hell each I did it all year of fading
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: the Broncos anytime their favorite and fading the Bucks anytime
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: their favorite. I couldn't believe we had missed that where
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: it was like it was sitting right there right there
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: after that have been there, good good to us all season,
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: fading the Broncos favorite and fading the Bucks the favorite,
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: and they both I mean the Bucks should have lost
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: out right, but it was both one of those like
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: as soon as those games started, I knew right away
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: where it's like, oh ship, like neither of these teams
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: are gonna cover. It's just gonna be an all dog's day.
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: So again, a lot of regret this weekend for the contest.
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: Tho those were another how do we not have either
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: of the Bucks or the Rams and we're Russell Wilson favorite,
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: like a three point favorite against no one, like he
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: is not a starter in this league. It's crazy. Well,
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: so now we got the Broncos. I don't even know
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: who the coaches. I haven't seen them name an interim coach.
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: So it's the guy they brought in to help that,
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: to help hack it, or the consultant. Yes, so the
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: guy they brought in after a week one is now
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: the head coach. How crazy is that? So they got
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: a consultant coming into coach. Uh. There are nearly two
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: touched on underdogs on the road as the Chiefs. They
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: do have a good defense this weekend, UH is an anomaly.
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: The Chiefs have a hard time covering big numbers at home. Right,
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: I was this not an early contender for big balls
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: that I don't know? The same thing was laughing. I
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: just wouldn't let I would not let us take the Seahawks,
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: And just I knew that line was fishy as fuck.
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: Went from nine and a half to ten and a
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: half and what they cover fourteen? And it was under
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: that always ended up being a great car was betting
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: the under in that game? Yeah, that was a nice one.
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: But like it's the same thing where I'm pc with you.
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: It's like I always loved to fade my homes in
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: these positions. It's just when you get late in the
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: year like this is these playoff teams usually ramp it
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: up and like that, that's what that looked like. That
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: that Chief's game, that was a complete game. Like their
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: offense wasn't that great, right, it was that cold weather,
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: but their defense really stepped up against the Seahawks. So
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: I don't know, Chat, I just said, just bet the under.
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, fuck it, just take the under here and
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: what should probably be a close, cold game. And you're right,
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: I always leaned towards Denver. But if it's a guarantee
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: that's Russell Wilson, I ain't doing it. Like I can't
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: can't get out, I can't get out of my head
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: all these videos of him getting hit to the ground
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: and his offensive linement not picking him up, and then
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: his was that dousing ripping came over and started talking
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: ship to the old lineman about not picking him up,
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: and like they're about the fucking beat up the backup quarterback.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: That's how far gone that team is right now. So
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: it's another team where I'm just worried they've quit. Chat.
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: If this was week seven or eight, yeah, take the
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: dog Divisional dog like Chiefs don't cover these big numbers,
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: especially against great defense. They make good rally against for
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: the new coach. But I remember Stucky talking about it's
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: not that big of an advantage a t S wise
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: taking the team after the coach has been fired. I
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: think it's like fifteen to fourteen or something. Really coolse
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: like that. So, um, everything you're saying is right where.
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: It's like, we almost always take the dog in this
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: position divisionally against the Chiefs because they just don't cover
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: these big numbers. It's just that the Broncos just feel
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: so lost right now. Um, I just can't I can't
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: tell the good the good listeners of this show to
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: put their money on, uh, this Denver team. Well wait
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: until Thursday and maybe Sunday. The total in this game,
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: by the way, you mentioned taking the under forty five
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: right now, Panthers visiting the Buccaneers. Panthers are three point dogs,
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: and they've got something to play for, and they got
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: a good defense and a good running game and a
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: quarterback who's not losing the games for them. Very slight
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: edge with the money, big edge with the tickets. K
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: of makes me feel like, I know, we just said
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: this about Tom Brady. You don't take him as a favorite,
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: He's been terrible as a favorite. But this feels like
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: a Buccaneers spot. I know. I hate it because this
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: is like the same attack thing when um, who the
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: hell it was? It was the Rams that went and
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: played the Bucks and like Tom Brady was dead. The
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: whole game they had a last second touchdown to win
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: or whatever it was. It feels like the exact same
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: scenario where it's like the Panthers are such not even
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: just a better team, but they just seem like they
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: are they know exactly who they are there, they know
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: exactly who that identity is at this point, Like there
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: are great defense with a really strong run game. If
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: both those things work, they are really tough to beat.
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: Like if they get a seven, seven nothing lead on
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: the Bucks, kind of feels like this game will be
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: over right, Like this is the kind of team that
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: they are this year. But what the hell is his line, Chad? Like,
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: why isn't it what you're exactly? What? Why just not
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: a pick or plus two? I want to take the three.
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm dying to take the three here because
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: it just feels like Carolina's right side. So this will
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: definitely be a sharp call. Um, My numbers say to
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: take Carolina, my heart says to take Carolina. It's all
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: saying it. But yeah, it's fishy, and the game is
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: this one stinks. It stinks. Same thing with Detroit last week.
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: We're like we were all over that right away, and
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: I just we were just a little scared because it's like,
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: oh god, we love the lines. They've been playing so well,
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: and now they're going against the Carolina team that just
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: laid an egg the week before. And as a week
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: went along and I talked to more pros, it was like, no,
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: this is the spot you load up on Carolina, fade
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: the lines. I'm gonna just hear what the pros think
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: on this one, because to me, like you just said,
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: I I know better. I know better than take Carolina.
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: So I want to hear what other guys are thinking
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: here because it feels like this is the time you
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: take the book. We're gonna have to hold off on
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: this one. We'll get this. I guarantee you're right. We'll
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: get into some sharp calls on Thursday. We'll be back
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: on Thursday. Reminder, all right. So the Chicago Bears did
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: his dirty on Sunday because they really played well in
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: the cold, and then and then the game it just
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: it just kind of turnovers. Couldn't convert on Bill's turnovers.
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: Congrass to Matt Mitchell. Another big win. Um, it was
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: a brutal day. I and my dad texted me every
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: five minutes telling me about the ticket prices at Social
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: Field dropping as the game got closer, like a hundred
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: box for fifty yard line seats behind the Bears bench
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: because it was so miserable. Bears are six point dogs
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: on the road at the lines, I don't know what
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: I want to take the lines. They're at home indoors.
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: They could score. They honestly could score a hundred points
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: on the point that that was my first thought. And
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: they're going to try this core hundred points. The fear
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: is fucking justin fields. Man, I'm terrified of the dude.
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: It's like because he could run for a thousand yards
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: in this game. Yeah, and when it's when he's got
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: it turned on, it's unstoppable, and it's like a whole
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: not that he's like the vibe of that team, but
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: it really seems like when he's going the team picks
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: up in other areas. Like their defense played really well
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: in that first half against the Bills because the offense
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: was playing so well, all of a sudden, the offense
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: starts spinning out of control. Had like you just had
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: the turnovers and the third down stops. The defense they
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: just gave up so many big runs. It's like the
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: same thought here of like, I mean, Williams might be
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: out this game, which is a big deal for that
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: running game of Detroit. But if you still have swift
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: running the ball against this Dare's defense, and you still
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: have you know, I'm on st Brown and d J
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: chart at the Ryer Suter position and golf has all
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: data throw because you guys have no one that can
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: pass rush. It's just like, how do I not take
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: Detroit here? So um, early lean is Detroit? Interesting number
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: line move? But though like if this keeps moving, it
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: touches seven. Yeah, I can probably get talked into the
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: Bears there. I mean, that's a big spread and in
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: divisual matchup, but you can still get five and a
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: half six. I wouldn't mind grabbing that lines right now.
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: Justin Fields is about two yards away from setting the
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: single season Russian record for a quarterback, and he has
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: been very open about the fact he wants that record,
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: and Matt E. Refluce yesterday mentioned that no matter, it
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: doesn't matter the Bears are in the midst of a
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: losing streak, doesn't matter that there's no chance of them
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: getting over their season win total. All that matters is
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: that if Justin Fields is healthy, he's going to play.
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: And I've come around on this. At first, I was like,
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: we know what Justin Fields can do. We think he's amazing.
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: Let's sit him down so we don't break him for
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: next season. Now I'm like, fuck it, he's so fun
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: to watch. Let's see him get the record. I like
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: the attitude. I think it's great for the team. Don't
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: have many offensive records so ever since Sweetness, I think
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: it's great. I think it's great for the team actually
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: in terms of attitude, like the players are seeing how
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: the coaching staff thinks about them and how they think
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: long term, and that they just want to play. I'm
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: excited for that. So Justin Fields could go for a
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: thousand yards in this game. The Detroit Lions might score
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: a hundred points. It can be the most record setting
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: game in NFL history. Five and a half feels like
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: a lot. It does. Eagles Fly Eagles, Fly boy. That
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: was a heartbreaker the other day. Six and a half
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: point favorites at home against the Saints. Yeah. I wish
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: football and have so much control of my life. But
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: it ruined my Christmas Eve made me piste off. It
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: was just like classic. That's this is why it hurts
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: is the m v P. It's like the guy he's
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: a part of the machine of he doesn't turn the
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: ball over and that's such a major thing on an
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: offense if you have a quarterback who can protect the ball.
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: And again, it wasn't all Minshew's fault, but he had
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: a lot that a lot of throws. You can see
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: why he is a backup. Like it hangs in the
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: air like you'll throw a ball downfield, and it feels
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: like it takes five seconds to get there. And against
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: the Saints at home, Chad, Yeah, I love the Eagles here.
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: They got a bunch of real big injuries. Lane Johnson
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: is gonna be out for this game. There slock Corner
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: is gonna be out for this game. Hurts. I think
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: he's gonna try toughen it out and come back for it.
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: Um if he does, that's what this line makes sense,
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: because to me, this line should be three and a
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: half four if it's Minshew. Um, So you want to
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: take the risk and grab it now in case it
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: does go up even more when Hurts comes back, go
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: for it. But I'm gonna wait and see because I
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: don't really know what they're gonna do. Like every every
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: guy I talked to him, the inside of the Eagle
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: says he's gonna play like that, he's gonna try to
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: toughen this out. I still think it's gonna come down
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: to the team doctors, and they're gonna be the ones
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: that are gonna be like, Okay, you can go play,
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: or no, you can't do it. So I get that
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: Hurts wants to play, and all the coaches want to
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: play in how he sure sure as how it wants
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: him to play. Because people don't understand we have the
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: Saints draft pick, like us beating them locks up the
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: number one seed and gives us the top five pick.
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: With that Saints pick, that's a huge deal to this
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: Eagles team. So um, motivation wise, it's all Eagles, like
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: this is as a motivated as a team. You're gonna
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: get Saint's coming off a big road win that kind
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: of stole from the Browns. There easy easy let down spots.
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: So um, I understand if you're taking the Eagles now,
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: I'm just gonna wait and see because as important is
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: as important as Hurts is to this team, it's obviously
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: not that big of a drop off going down the minstrew.
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: I mean they put up take away to pick six,
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: they still put up what twenty seven points against that
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: Cowboys defense on the roads. So um, clearly this Eagle's
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: offense has got to click in uh, just just like
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: them in the spot here. Well, it'll be interesting to
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: see the luck rankings this week, which we talked about
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: a lot on this show and we love because it's
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: such a good measurement of the unexpected and how it
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: impacted these games. And in that game I mentioned it
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: off the top. Miles Sanders had fumbled once in his career,
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: it was the week before, and he fumbled again in
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: this game in the final two minutes Minshew with a
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: pick in the final couple of minutes, completing that third
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: and thirty with seven minutes left, losing two ten point leads.
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: You know, you're always doing gamblers math on these games,
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: and there was at one point they were up by
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: ten and I was like, Okay, can the Cowboys score
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: three more times in this game and the Eagles not
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: score at all? Like everything, like everything that could go
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: wrong went wrong for the Eagles to not just lose
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: that game, but to not cover that game. They are
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: much better team than the Saints are not so even
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: at six and a half. The Gardner Minshew, I don't
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: I'm not that concerned, especially given the stakes. This will
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: be a big luck game. Um uh, the same thing
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: for the Saints. By the way, you know, they got
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: pretty lucky they in their game. They had a couple
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: of keys, they had a key turnover forty Niners. I
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: don't feel like we're settling on anything yet, which is
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: totally fine. We haven't done a Sigmon says, we haven't
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: done an exact decision. We'll probably have to come to
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: it at some point. The forty niners and the only
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: game we love so far is the Texas plus four.
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: This is this is life doing games ton am on Tuesday. Yeah,
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: it's hard. It's hard. And I will say, you know,
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: you and I have talked about this, and Matt Mitchell
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: and I have talked about this. Based on your idea
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: next football season, you and I are probably going to
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: do a emotional where we got fucked, where we Got
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: lucky podcast, like at seven pm Eastern as soon as
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: the slate of day games ends before the Sunday night
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: game begins. Um, and so we'll get a lot of
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: that sort of emotional Rigorman role out of the way.
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: Doesn't mean we'll be anymore ready on a Tuesday, but
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: it'll change sort of our tenor I think forty again.
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: Boy brock Purty, I didn't know before this game, am
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: I seeing Taylor Heineke playing both quarterback positions? Like as
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: brock Purty just going to turn into Taylor Heinekey get
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: a terrible first half and then with lights out. That's
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: that coaching staff is so good. They're so good at adjustments. No,
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: it's insane, but I will still take the Raiders, Sir,
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: give me the er. This is what we have. We
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: have to, we have to this. What sucks is like
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: people a bitch at us are like stop fading the
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: fourty nine ers Rock Purty four and oh a t
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: S four and oh straight up, it's just done with
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: the Doude Chad because they're they're right where I haven't
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: Maybe I haven't just enough, I haven't given them enough credit.
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: Um it's just mental though, Like that that game they
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: had three plays those and those three plays dictated the
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: whole entire game. So they are getting incredibly lucky. He's
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: talking about the luck rankings this will. I mean, they
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: have to be top three, top four now. Vegas is
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: arguably one of the worst coach teams on football. When
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: the most unlucky teams on football. Um, I think they
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: tied another record. Um there, they tied the record of
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: they've had uh six games, I believe now they've been
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: up by a touchdown heading of the halftime that they lost.
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: So just all the bad records you can think of,
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: they've just been cashing this year. Um. And you know,
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: make Derek are the fall man. That would be the
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: perfect thing for Josh McDaniels to do. Shift the blame
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: to someone else. It's not his system, that's ship. It's
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: Derek Carr who's staring all these interceptions and it's looking terrible,
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: um as if he's been put into the terrible positions
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: to throw those balls. It's just it's a train wreck
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: right now, Chad for this Raiders team. I mean there,
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: you've got guys in the locker room openly talking about
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: looking forward to not being there next year. And they
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: still got to two weeks to go and they know
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: they're out there. They're out of playoffs, like nothing to
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: play for. Flip side. It's I mean boy, Niners are rolling,
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: like they are absolutely rolling. If you go through these
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: last couple of games, they're just not beating teams are
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: beating that ship out of them. Chat, They're they're double
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: digital them. So fuck, man, you just said it like
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: this number. This should be three and a half four,
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: it's five and a half six. There's so much value
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: on this Raiders team. But what are we supposed to do? Man?
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: Because this is different than it would be in the
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: early weeks, like this is the end of the year.
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: Teams quit, teams give up. I told you these playoff
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: teams send it into the next gear like they're getting
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: ready for the playoffs. Like this is no letdown spots.
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: Now you add into like they could get still get
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: that two seed from Minnesota. So I don't know what
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: to do with this one. It's like, personally, any well,
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: listen to the show. I will be on the Raiders.
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: Leave me alone. I'm not telling you guys to bet it.
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: This is what I'm doing in me chat, We're most
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: likely having the contest because it's just a great fucking number,
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: and it's that's the hardest part. Chat. It's like, I
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: don't know what to do here because this is a
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: good number and I let down spot against the forty
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: niners on the road. Um, everything, I agree with what
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: they're saying. Their defenses out of this world. They have
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: not allowed. What the hell is the crazy stay didn't
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: let a running back then more in the sixty five
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: yards or something fucking crazy. And it's week seventeen, Like,
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: you guys are unreal indoor against a high flying offense
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: that is Vegas like this is when we take Vegas
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: at home as a big home dog. Like this has
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: been really good to us in these spots, especially on
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: offense that is a fast West Coast offense was exactly
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: what the fours have only struggled. They only struggled in
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: two games this whole year. That's against that style of offenses.
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: So fuck man, I really hate it because it makes
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: me feel sick. It's the same thing has been in
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: Carolina last week. I feel sick to my stomach doing it.
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: But if it's a if it's guarantee that Derek Carr
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: is the starter this week and you know they're playing starters,
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: I'll be on Vegas. But man, is it not fun?
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: So do we wait? Yeah? I'll tell anyone that's why
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: I'm making this time, he said, I think you'll be
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: able to get a six or six and a half.
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: Like no one's bet in this purpose, Like this is
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: a a pro bet, and the public they will keep
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: doing what they do and they'll bet the spread. They'll
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: throw them in teasers, they'll throw them in moneyline parlays
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: boys is a cash cow to the public right now.
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: Then in the Bengals have just been feeding families these
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: last couple of months. So true, that's when the pros
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: get killed of, like the Bengals a lot. We didn't
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: like him this weekend, and that you know what our feelings. Um, alright,
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: so we're holding out. We haven't done assignment, says, we
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: haven't done an exact decision. HM. We're keeping an eye
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: on Miami, hoping it gets too plus three. We're keeping
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: an eye on Las Vegas to see how it moves
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: over the course of the week. Um, we like the
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: Texas plus four. It's the only game we've bet so far. Uh,
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: Jets two and a half point favorites on the road
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: at Seattle. You gotta take the Jets. Mike White's back,
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: so we'll ride with the public. We will just keep
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: fading Gino. The book is out. We said it weeks ago.
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: The book is out on Gineo. You've seen exactly why
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: this guy is not a starter. You can get away
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: with it. But once team's learning his rhythm, what he
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: likes to do and what he doesn't like to do,
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: what offensive scheme they're running for him to put him
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: in the best position, they've all taken it away. Mean,
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: every week it feels like now we keep trying to
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: make excuses for the Seattle team where they just, I mean,
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: they're not good. They went from being I think it
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: was plus five hundred to miss the playoffs, two or
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: no to make the playoffs or no miss the playoffs.
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: Now they're like plus five make the playoffs or something
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: even crazier where it's like they just completely gone the
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: other way at these last five weeks. So give me
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: the great Jets defense on the road and a must
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: win game with Mike White a quarterback they believe in
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: in a game where I don't think he's gonna have
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: to throw it that much. I think they'll be able
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: to run this ball against the Seahawks team. They just
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: they got no answers for the run we saw last
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: week with the Chiefs. The Chiefs just ran the ball
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: down their throat. They had no answers for it. So
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: all the week before that against the Seahawks and before that,
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: it's just that's the formula. It's just reminds me of
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: when Carolina went up there Maybeth Carolina went to Seattle
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: and whatever that was like one seven win or something
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: like that. The same kind of blueprint here, Like, we're
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: back in a really good defense. I'm us one spot
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: with a good run game and a quarterback that's not
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: gonna kill us in Mike White. Like Mike White on
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: third and five, he can make the completion. Zach Wilson
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: on third and five, he's gonna throw a twenty yards
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: downfield over a guy's head. It's just it's night and
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: day the difference. So, um, yeah, well we'll take it
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: out a good number. Check in that two and a half? Uh?
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: Is this a Simon says, Do we think it's going
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: to go up to three? No, you're gonna hate my
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: Simon says, I can't wait, but I do think this
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: number might go to three. Yeah, it could. I do
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: think that enough enough pros will coming on the Seahawks
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: just because They're a home dog. The Packers are three
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: point favorites on the at home at Lambeau in a
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: most win for them against the Vikings, who continue to
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: find ways sixty one yard field goal in the final
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: seconds after nearly blowing it against the Giants. I hate
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: this team. This team will be an auto fade for
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: their season win total next year, Simon says the Vikings.
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: I knew you would hate it. Everyone hates it. Everyone's okay,
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: hates this team. I've completely turned the other way around.
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: I'm like, Okay, this is the team that's gonna win
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, isn't it. They're gonna be an underdog
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: in every playoff game because the public is like you,
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: They're just waiting for them to fail, and Kirk will
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: keep winning these games on the final a couple of seconds.
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: It's bizarro world. No, the honest, real reason for taking
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: this Vikings team is I love the way they match
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: up with Green bay Um. I forget when they played
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: it might have been Week one. I think they beat
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: him twenty three to seven. They absolutely dominated him when
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: they played earlier this year, played him well these last
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: couple of years, even when Rogers was on his m
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: VP level um. Everything Chad saying is true, where it's
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: like we're getting an indoor team outdoors fade. We're gonna
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: team that is probably number two or three in the
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: luck rankings fade. It's like everything is screaming fade to
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: this Viking team where I look at other way where
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: green Bay has had crazy amount of luck and good
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: fortune these last couple of weeks that is inflating their number,
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: like people are thinking they're way better than they really
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: actually are. Everyone's thinking, Okay, this is the team that's
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: gonna back door get their way into the playoffs. The
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: NFL is gonna fix it because they want the ratings
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: for green Bay. They don't give a damn about that.
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: And it's another team where I think they're gonna look ahead. Man,
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: they got Detroit next week. That's the game. Like, that's
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: them Detroit fighting for that last spot. To me, that's
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: the look ahead. That's the game for them. Minnesota. I
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: love when they're just I love them as dogs honestly,
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: Like we did well though, right and we took Cowboys
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: on the road as a favorite against the Vikings. That
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: made sense, like that was a smart number. I don't know,
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: it's a bit of an overaction here, Like I would
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: make this line of pick this is a coin flip game.
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: You're giving me three points because everyone's like Chat and
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: fucking hates his Vikings team and just doesn't want to
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: bet them, and people like Green Bay, I think they're ascending.
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: They've turned it around. I get everyone's reasoning for being
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: on the Screen Bay team, but I can tell you this.
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: They on a three and a half with this game,
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: and I was all over and a lot of pros
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: roll over. It went down to three, went to two
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: and a half for a little bit, and then went
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: back up to three. So it's gonna be a split game.
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: It was just like Cowboys Eagles last week. It's gonna
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: be pros verse pros um. I'm gonna stick my claim
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: in this Vikings team. I see even if they lose,
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: I can't see them losing by more than a field goals.
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: So I love the fact they're getting plus three here.
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: All right, Well, there are some places where three and
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: a half is still available. So what you're saying the
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: reason why this is, as Simon says, is because you
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: got to find that three and a half and betted
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: before it goes back down to three, because that's why
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: I think it's gonna settle. I think I'll just stay
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: at three because it's when the pros are on both
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: sides of books kind of throa their hands, and they
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: got all right, we'll just we'll let them, We'll let
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: them figure this out. We'll just keep it out of
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: boring number at three and that that tends to what
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: happens in these matchups. Yeah, all right, Well guess what
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: I'm I'm Ben in the Vikings plus three and a half.
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: You'll be on an island with me, brother, We're on
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: it together. My friend, I already consent to all of
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: Action Network will be on green back. You know what,
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: I don't mind fadon Aaron Rodgers in a must win
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: spot with a team that he still isn't sure he
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: can believe in, and you're not wrong, Like and his
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: number one receiver got banged up last week. Yeah, Christian
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: Watson got banged up. That was a painful player. Prop
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: to lose another part of my fantastic weekend. But that
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: she was look two. I didn't look right and that
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: was a different game. So um, you know, good for us.
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: Rams at the Chargers. Rams are six and a half
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: point underdogs in that. So I'm saying on this week,
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: it's such a hard week, like, what are we supposed
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: to do with this game? Chat Well, in a non
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: end of the year world where the Chargers haven't haven't
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: already clinched the playoffs, and it's not two teams playing
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: on a home field that doesn't have any advantage. We're
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: automatically taking the Rams here. Every time we bet the
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: Rams here everything, we don't bet the Chargers as home favorites. Facts,
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: So I don't have a choice here. We have to
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: back the Rams, and I am with everyone. They're coming
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: off a fifty burger not ideal. It feels like the
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: Bears last week, Chad Like, it feels like I do
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: not have a choice in this game. As much that
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: I want to fight it, I have to play this
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: big gas number like it's a team that usually does
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: not cover this big gas number. And I mean, I
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: I get what you're saying. We're uh, there's no there's
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: no advantage these teams share the stadium, either of them
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: were that fan bases um eight. If this is still
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: plus eight, this has been a no brainer six and
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: a half. We're still gonna bet it. It's just it's
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: I don't feel strong about it because all that movements,
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: just because what we just said, they hung up fifty points. Um,
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: the book's got to move that number because of that.
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: So uh, not great value. But I would still take
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: it on the Rams. Fucking hate this game. I gotta
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: make an exact decision here. I got two more games,
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: and I've been waffling between the two of them. The
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: Steelers are on the road is three point dogs at
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: the Ravens. And by the way, the last game we'll
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: talk about and that I'm debating is Bills and Bengals,
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: where the Bills are one and a half point favorites.
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: I like the Steelers last weekend, you I felt uncomfortable
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: about the Steelers. UM ended up kind of like from
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: a from a handicapping perspective of perspective, neither of us
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: were right. Like, you know, the Steelers kind of got
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: lucky at the end of the game. The Raiders do
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: what the Raiders do. The Raiders were probably the right side,
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: but the Steelers ended up winning and covering. UM. I
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: I have like this Steelers team defensively. I have liked
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: this Steeler team with Kenny Pickett playing. The Ravens are
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: a mystery to me. Yeah, and it's like, what do
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: we do with this one. I'm pretty sure this is
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: Lamar coming back and he'll play, but that's a big deal.
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: He hasn't played and what almost a month and a half.
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: It feels like that. Um, I'll take the points with
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: the public. This is a public bet taking Pittsburgh here,
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: and I guess I'm doing it with him, but I
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: just I feel like that's a fair number. I'd make
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: this game too, So the value is on Pittsburgh, and
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: I make it that way just because what we just said,
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: Lamar hasn't played, Like that's a big deal, the fact
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: that he hasn't played at all. So um, the only
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: reason I'm not smashing this game is the respect I
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: do have for the Ravens and they are the better team.
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: Like we know they're the better team. But in divisional
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: game like this, I'll bet with the public, chat and
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: I'll take Pittsburgh. Monday, n Up, all the Bills are
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: visiting the Bengals. I'm gonna say it right now, Matt Mitchell,
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: cue the music. Buffalo Bills are my exact decision of
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: minus one and a half. The Bills. Make me keep
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: your feels something to throw your hand something, throw your
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: hand back and tall. Now the Bills are making it happen.
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: I hate it. I hate it, but I worry about
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: the offensive line issues for the Bengals. I worry about
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: some of their defensive line issues. A lot of injuries
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: popping up in the foundational spots. The Bills just keep
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: pulling it out, and like I think they're a better
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: overall team. There's too much at stake here. Give me
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: the Bills minus one and a half. I hate it. Yeah,
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: I don't have to do because I tease the Bengals
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: already up the seven and a half. I just I
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: like the Bengals in the spot at home after having
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: such a just a stinker of a game against Patriots
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: where the Bills and other half where they played so
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: well in the second half against the Bears. Um, I
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: can't fault you for it. Though. The Bills, they're they're
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: just not that they're built to play against this Bengals team.
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: But it is a good matchup for them and the Bengals.
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: A good match for the Bengals playing against the Chiefs.
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: They match up really well against them, vice versus the
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: Bills match up really well against this Bengals team. What
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: the Bengals team wants to do? So, um, some shocked
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: you're making this your your pick here just because this
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: is such a it's such a public pick a little
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: bit like the Bills are the super Bowl favorite. Now
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: that the favorite on the road against the Bengals team
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: that they're not really that much different then, like if
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: the Bengals upset the Bills and the playoffs, I don't
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: think I want to be that shocked. Like we all
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: put we're all putting Joe Burrow down that same type
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: of tier as we're putting, uh, the Mahomes and the
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: Josh Allens of the league. So um interesting, interesting, played
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: by check because to me, the the teams are playing
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: the bank, which just feels safe. Like whoever wins this game,
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: if to me, will come down to a field goal
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: or a touchdown. Um, you know, I mean I love
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: a good home dog. So you're probably right. The Bills
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: are probably the right play in the sense that they're
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: healthier right now. There's a bunch of injuries to the
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: interior line of this Bengals team, and it's gonna shock people.
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: I believe the Bills lead the league and yards per carry,
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: like they're just they're a better running team that people realize,
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: just because of the Josh Allen effect where even if
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: he's not the one running it, they always have to
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: account for an defender for Josh Allens, I always leaves
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: one less guy to plug up those holes when they
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: do run the ball. So yeah, if the Bills can
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: control the clock and keep draw off the field, they'll win.
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: But this fields like at last possession games chat, and
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: that's what scares me about it, where it's like it's
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: truly a coin flip game. Joe, Joe burrows the ball last.
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: How do you feel about your bet? And vice versa
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: where it's like if if we are down by a
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: one point and Josh Allen has the ball, all we
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: needs a field goal Chat, I feel like we're gonna
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: win that bet. So it's that tough spot where it's like,
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: whoever the ball lasts is gonna win this game. I
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: feel uh significantly better about Josh Allen having the ball
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: right now than Joe Burrow. I I just think that
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: the Bills are healthier. Yeah, but Joe Burrow is playing it.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: I would say Joe Burrows playing a much higher level
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: than Josh Allen. Not the show on Josh Allen right now,
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: but Josh Allen. He can't stop turning the ball over,
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: especially in the red zone. Like that's gonna bite his
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: ass at some point this year. That's why, you know what,
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: it's gonna bite his ass. Second round at home against
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: the Bengals, This to me feels like the Bills are
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: get the crap out of them, gonna win this game.
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: And on January whatever, that Saturday or Sunday is when
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: the play the Bengals, the Bills are gonna be like
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: three point favorites, and then the public is going to
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: come in on the Bengals because they will have won
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: their wild card game convincingly and we're going to smash
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: the Bills. Alright, Well, all right with you on this one,
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: because I honestly, I think it's a fair number. Like
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: I make the line of pick, it's still under two,
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: which to me, two is a key number. So I'll
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: take the one and a half way you chat on
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: the Bills, but man, this is I don't feel like
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: you're convinced because it's scary. It's it's like there's other
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: games where I feel more more convinced, where it's like, dude,
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: Joe Burrow has a as a whatever a bunny bunny's
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: foot up his ass like he's the luckiest dude ever
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: like that. I can't get over the fact that covered
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: that game. I know people are be like, oh, well
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: they may struct your points to all this other bullshit.
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: That kept saying like no, like that was a scheduled
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: loss cover This is insane. The teams never people don't
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: get out crazies. This team literally went to the super
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: Bowl and now the following year there are twelve and
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: three or whatever it is now thirteen and three a
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: t s. That doesn't happen the books, No, the public
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: will be all over the team that went to the
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: super Bowl last year. So this, this Joe Burrows ship
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: chat just freaks me out because he's he's we're always
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: talking about. He's the neo, He's the glitchen that matrix
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: like he he breaks models. He should not be covering
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: the way he's been covering. So I'll tease the Bengals
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: and I'm gonna rat with chatting the Bills. I'm gonna
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: ty I had that nice little middle spot where the
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: Bills went by a field goal. I covered my seven
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: a half with the Bengals because it's just a nice
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: teaser leg This Bengals team, I feel like you're giving
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: This is like a hittie play. I'll do it with
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: your kid. I'll go with you. I don't love it,
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: but I like your spunk. You're gonna you know, I
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: think you got a shot. Well, I love better on
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: the best games of the week, so it's like I'm
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: gonna have money on regardless. Um, I was just gonna
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: tease and stay away from it. But like, listen to
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: you something. You're making some good points where it's like
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: I talked to a bunch of the pros and they're like, yeah,
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: fucking Bills are smash spot. This will be auto playing
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: the contest just right now. Let's sprinkle a little bit
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: on it for you because I'm with you. It's like
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: the Bills seemed like the right side. I right, well,
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: then I want the right to I want to reserve
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: my right to change my exact decision come Thursday after
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: we get some sharp calls. That's what I would say,
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: all right. Uh, Foxhold was Texans plus four. Simon says
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: his Vikings plus three and a half. The exact decision
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: is Bills minus one and a half. UM for the contest,
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: we are looking at Texans plus four. We are thinking
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: about Las Vegas plus six. We're thinking about Jets minus
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: two and a half. We're thinking about Rams plus six
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: and a half. In addition to the games I discussed,
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: UM say again some okay, and then uh, we're we're
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: waiting to see if Miami hits three against the Patriots.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: Um So, look, I'm feeling a little trepidacious right now.
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: My confidence is a little shot. It's another reason why
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: I'm sort of having a hard time coming up with
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: an exact decision. My confidence it's already gone. Brother, I
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: it's gone. It's gone. But I'm not seeing the board
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: the way I normally would. That's good, though, honestly, I
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: feel like that's better. If you love everything tends to
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: be a little risk here. That was the problem last
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: week because I loved everything and I overbet I made.
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: I made bets last week for more money than I
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: have a year, and it significant limp bit me. I'm
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: going to be much more prudent, much more cautious, fewer bets,
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: probably lower my unit size for the week, just sort
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: of get my legs under me again. I've made I've
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: made a couple of bets so far. So there's been
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: the favorites from the Volume podcast Network for producer Extraordinary
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, for my bff Simon Hunter, I Am Chad Moman.
• 1:04:41
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• 1:04:44
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• 1:04:50
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• 1:04:54
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• 1:05:03
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