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NFL Week 2 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I
0:16
Speaker 1: am Chadmilman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Today
0:21
Speaker 1: is our Week two Tuesday NFL episode, one more week
0:25
Speaker 1: of reminders for how this season will go. Since we
0:28
Speaker 1: have a lot of new listeners, we thank you for that.
0:31
Speaker 1: As a reminder. Today's show, we'll go through every game
0:33
Speaker 1: in the week too slate. On Thursday, we'll narrow down
0:36
Speaker 1: our top plays. If you look to finalize our top
0:39
Speaker 1: five bets in our new totally free Favorites Podcast one
0:45
Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars Pro Football pick'em contest reminder, you can
0:50
Speaker 1: join the contest make your picks become eligible for all
0:55
Speaker 1: our fabulous cash prizes by visiting Favorites dot Action Network
1:00
Speaker 1: dot com. That's also where you can see our official
1:04
Speaker 1: five picks hours in Me and Simon when we lock
1:07
Speaker 1: them in before kickoff on Sunday. You can also track
1:10
Speaker 1: those same top bets by following two accounts in the
1:13
Speaker 1: award winning Action Network app. Those accounts are called the
1:17
Speaker 1: Faves five and the Favorites Podcast. We will not be
1:23
Speaker 1: doing much recapping today. We used to do that on
1:25
Speaker 1: the Tuesday show in the previous seasons of the Favorites podcast,
1:30
Speaker 1: but we have added the Sunday show. We did our
1:32
Speaker 1: recapping and moping on our new Sunday Night Live recap episode.
1:38
Speaker 1: We finished two and three last week. It was painful.
1:40
Speaker 1: A buddy of mine texted me Simon and he said,
1:44
Speaker 1: I can't believe you guys did that Sunday show. It
1:46
Speaker 1: looked excruciating. As Matt Mitchell said, it's like a press conference.
1:49
Speaker 1: We have to do these shows after the game, win
1:54
Speaker 1: or lose. We will keep doing it all season long,
1:57
Speaker 1: and I promise those episodes will get better, better and better.
2:01
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell wrote that line he did not think Sunday's
2:03
Speaker 1: episode was very good. You can enjoy our shows live
2:07
Speaker 1: three times a week on the Action Network YouTube page
2:11
Speaker 1: like Subscribe if you're watching right now, like and subscribe,
2:14
Speaker 1: and on AMP Sundays at seven thirty pm Eastern Tuesdays
2:18
Speaker 1: one forty five pm Eastern Thursdays at eleven am Eastern.
2:22
Speaker 1: Week one in our contest was electric, But before we
2:28
Speaker 1: shout out our Week one cash money winners, let's bring
2:31
Speaker 1: in my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre
2:36
Speaker 1: professional better. Simon Hunter. Sure, Simon, I want to be
2:42
Speaker 1: phone Little Bowl for one second, okay, because this has
2:45
Speaker 1: to be. This past week was insane. Could be the
2:50
Speaker 1: most rewarding week in my long accomplished career as a
2:57
Speaker 1: beloved media executive, as a seven time author, as a
3:02
Speaker 1: four time best selling author. This podcast hit the top
3:06
Speaker 1: twenty five on Apple Podcasts Sports Charts, jumped into the
3:10
Speaker 1: top two hundred podcasts overall on Spotify. We Appreciate our Listeners.
3:15
Speaker 1: Our contest hit ten thousand sign ups. Matt Mitchell's Dream
3:19
Speaker 1: our audience in the app and on the platform. The
3:22
Speaker 1: web platform exploded. On YouTube between Thursday and Sunday, viewers
3:27
Speaker 1: watched more than a million minutes of our content. It's amazing,
3:32
Speaker 1: right All Monday, I was so fucking miserable because of
3:37
Speaker 1: our one and three start, Like I was in agony.
3:40
Speaker 1: It was like a pall over all this success all day.
3:43
Speaker 1: Everyone's like, oh my god, it's amazing. Can you believe
3:46
Speaker 1: what's happening? Blah blah blah, And I'm just like, this
3:49
Speaker 1: is fucking terrible. The Jets restored my faith because now
3:54
Speaker 1: I can look at our two and three record and
3:55
Speaker 1: being huh think we're one holding call away on a
3:59
Speaker 1: two point in the Pats game for being three and two? Seriously,
4:05
Speaker 1: how irrational is everything? So I'm in tuck me down shot.
4:10
Speaker 2: I'm just slowly trying to make you into a pro
4:12
Speaker 2: better and we're getting there with the picks, but we
4:14
Speaker 2: got to get there. The mentality I literally woke up
4:17
Speaker 2: with Monday, didn't even care, like literally was already over
4:19
Speaker 2: the previous week. Was onto the Monday night game and
4:22
Speaker 2: onto prepping for a week two. I mean, it sucks,
4:24
Speaker 2: took took some lickings, but it's just you keep plugging forward.
4:27
Speaker 2: If people want to do this for real and you
4:29
Speaker 2: want to make this a real job and a big
4:31
Speaker 2: part of your life. If you win big, you wake
4:34
Speaker 2: up and it's irrelevant. You lose big, you wake up,
4:36
Speaker 2: it's irrelevant. You're always on to the next week. So
4:39
Speaker 2: Sunday nights usually the night I'll celebrate or I'll be
4:42
Speaker 2: dead inside. I was pretty dead inside. I'm not gonna lie.
4:44
Speaker 2: And we got on the show we were watching live beforehand.
4:47
Speaker 2: Mac Jones just couldn't get us there. So that was
4:49
Speaker 2: definitely a new experience. Usually I'm just buying myself or
4:52
Speaker 2: with friends drinking, or this time I was on a
4:54
Speaker 2: job with you. It was a little different. I thought
4:56
Speaker 2: this on the show was good. Though. We did give
4:58
Speaker 2: out the Bengals minus three. Look at what it's a
5:00
Speaker 2: minus three and a half now, Chad the Bengals, right.
5:03
Speaker 2: So apparently we do give out good action on Sunday Night,
5:05
Speaker 2: So make sure tune in next Sunday where I gave
5:08
Speaker 2: out the Cowboys to win by forty points over the Giants.
5:12
Speaker 2: So you did buy the way another thing where you're
5:15
Speaker 2: just losing your mind. You say things, and apparently you
5:17
Speaker 2: look like a genius. So I definitely enjoyed the Sunday
5:19
Speaker 2: Night Show.
5:20
Speaker 1: I listened to the Sunday Show too. I actually thought
5:21
Speaker 1: it was fun. I liked the Sunday Show. I liked
5:24
Speaker 1: it partially because we were so miserable and that was
5:27
Speaker 1: so authentic.
5:28
Speaker 2: I was trying to fake it, but I could hear
5:30
Speaker 2: the plane in our voices.
5:32
Speaker 1: You did say you were so impressed with the Niners,
5:34
Speaker 1: and you'll have to make some adjustments and we're going
5:36
Speaker 1: to get to that into games. But you also said
5:38
Speaker 1: unless the Cowboys go out and win by forty points,
5:40
Speaker 1: I don't see how the niners like are higher in
5:43
Speaker 1: your power rankings. Anyways, I am so jazzed for this
5:47
Speaker 1: week as a reminder of the Favorites podcast. It's proudly
5:50
Speaker 1: presented by Bet three six five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand.
5:54
Speaker 1: Sign up with promo code action to get Bet three
5:56
Speaker 1: six five's exclusive sign up offered that one dollar on
5:59
Speaker 1: any game and get three hundred and sixty five dollars
6:02
Speaker 1: in bonus bets. Must be twenty one or older. Offer
6:05
Speaker 1: is available in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, and Iowa.
6:09
Speaker 1: Gambling problem call or text one eight hundred Gambler. Also,
6:15
Speaker 1: producer t Do would like me to remind you that
6:17
Speaker 1: you can catch every episode of The Favorites live in
6:21
Speaker 1: YouTube and in the Action Network app. We need to
6:24
Speaker 1: do the week two games. We are going to get
6:26
Speaker 1: to that in moments, but we do have this contest.
6:29
Speaker 1: We did have winners. If you're giving away thousands of dollars,
6:32
Speaker 1: like you ought to tell people what's going on, So
6:35
Speaker 1: Matt take it away.
6:36
Speaker 2: Okay, last, but not least, Uncle Mitch.
6:40
Speaker 3: We are giving away sixty six thousand dollars to the
6:43
Speaker 3: top ten at the end of the season. In our contest,
6:46
Speaker 3: but also giving away three grand to the top five
6:50
Speaker 3: every single week, so I hope you're setting down.
6:53
Speaker 2: Last week, there was a.
6:54
Speaker 3: Ten way tie for first place. Ten entries go five
6:59
Speaker 3: and zero with a perfect tiebreaker, which was forty three
7:03
Speaker 3: total completions on Monday Night football, so those ten will split.
7:08
Speaker 3: That's three hundred dollars per person. Congratulations. There were twenty
7:13
Speaker 3: one entries that went five and oh and missed the
7:15
Speaker 3: typebreaker by just one completion, so they had either forty
7:19
Speaker 3: two or forty four. If you're one of those twenty
7:22
Speaker 3: one entries who missed by one, email me personally with
7:25
Speaker 3: your username in the contest and send it to podcasts
7:30
Speaker 3: at actionnetwork dot com. I will give you a non
7:33
Speaker 3: cash consolation prize.
7:35
Speaker 2: Because that's a rough beat.
7:37
Speaker 3: In total, we had one hundred and seventy five entries
7:40
Speaker 3: go five and oh. That is one point seven percent
7:44
Speaker 3: of all our entries. Congratulations to you. And then second,
7:47
Speaker 3: as a reminder, Monday Night Football tiebreakers, you have to
7:51
Speaker 3: kind of nail those if you want to cash. Including
7:54
Speaker 3: your aggregate tiebreaker score. That's how close you got to
7:57
Speaker 3: all the tiebreakers. That's how we're breaking ties in the
8:00
Speaker 3: top ten for the season long contest, So you're gonna
8:03
Speaker 3: want to take those very seriously. We're gonna have to
8:05
Speaker 3: start making those a little bit more challenging. So this
8:08
Speaker 3: week's Monday Night Football tiebreaker is longest Pittsburgh reception on
8:14
Speaker 3: Monday Night football. So don't skip the tiebreakers, folks.
8:18
Speaker 1: Very important, and that's right. And remember the contest drops
8:21
Speaker 1: your two lowest scores after Week twelve. If you're thinking,
8:24
Speaker 1: oh no, I didn't sign up, Oh no, I went
8:26
Speaker 1: one in four, doesn't matter. Sign up now for free
8:28
Speaker 1: at Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. Make your week two picks.
8:31
Speaker 1: You're still good to go. You're still in the running
8:33
Speaker 1: for the forty k grand prize and the weekly cash prizes.
8:36
Speaker 1: Can't win this cash if you don't play, can't win
8:39
Speaker 1: this cash if you don't play, Simon, It's time to
8:41
Speaker 1: play some ball. Here's a stat and this is going
8:44
Speaker 1: to be relevant for this podcast. I listened to the
8:47
Speaker 1: Action Network Recap podcast on Monday with Joe Golant and
8:51
Speaker 1: Evan Abrams, senior researcher who's listening in on this show
8:54
Speaker 1: right now in Brandon Anderson. In Week two, teams that
8:58
Speaker 1: lost by ten or more against the team that did
9:01
Speaker 1: not lose by double digits, so they didn't have to win.
9:05
Speaker 1: They could have lost as long as they didn't lose
9:07
Speaker 1: by double digits. Since twenty twelve, those teams thirty six
9:12
Speaker 1: eighteen and three against the spread sixty seven percent. If
9:15
Speaker 1: you were on the road, that number goes to twenty
9:18
Speaker 1: four and one eighty three percent. Teams that applies to
9:23
Speaker 1: this week. That includes the Seattle Seahawks, and I believe
9:27
Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears were going to get to it. Point
9:29
Speaker 1: is small dogs excel in weeks one and two. Let's
9:34
Speaker 1: start with the Vikings at Philly on Thursday Night football.
9:39
Speaker 1: The guy the land opened at seven and a half
9:40
Speaker 1: is at seven. We talk about the luck rankings all
9:43
Speaker 1: the time. Sean Kerner, Nick Giffen, Billy Ward. They put
9:49
Speaker 1: together this metric that basically finds this signal in all
9:54
Speaker 1: the noise of the randomness that happens in pro football,
9:59
Speaker 1: and last season we ended up by the end of
10:02
Speaker 1: the year using it as a real sort of marker
10:05
Speaker 1: for how we were calibrating some of these games. This
10:09
Speaker 1: is the biggest luck game of the week, Minnesota Philly
10:12
Speaker 1: and I went deep into the stats on this, So
10:14
Speaker 1: I'm curious to get your thoughts. Where are you at
10:16
Speaker 1: right now?
10:18
Speaker 2: I'm hoping this gets the six and a half. That's
10:20
Speaker 2: the hope right now is that the public keeps coming
10:23
Speaker 2: in on the Vikings and this goes from seven and
10:25
Speaker 2: a half down to seven down to six and a half.
10:27
Speaker 2: So and someone that's going to back to the Eagles.
10:29
Speaker 2: They just played a horrible game, and that's one of
10:33
Speaker 2: those where you kind of throw it out if you're
10:35
Speaker 2: the team itself. Maybe they'll watch the film on Monday
10:38
Speaker 2: and then they'll just throw it away because it was
10:39
Speaker 2: just totally useless. They just they got out game played
10:43
Speaker 2: by Belichick. And that's why we love that Patriots team,
10:45
Speaker 2: Like if they didn't give up that pick six and
10:47
Speaker 2: that turnover in their own red zone, completely different games.
10:50
Speaker 2: So the Eagles team, they had their sloppy game, they
10:52
Speaker 2: had their Super Bowl hangover game. Now they're coming home
10:55
Speaker 2: in a primetime game on Thursday night in a short week.
11:00
Speaker 2: That's just a tough spot for the Vikings. Not only
11:02
Speaker 2: are they traveling, they don't match up well against this
11:05
Speaker 2: Eagles team. And now there's reports out there center might
11:08
Speaker 2: be out and their right tackle might be out as well,
11:10
Speaker 2: So it could get ugly here really fast for a
11:13
Speaker 2: Vikings team that we all knew they ever achieved last year,
11:17
Speaker 2: anyone kept telling you they overachieved. They're not as good
11:19
Speaker 2: as a record said last year. This year, I feel
11:22
Speaker 2: like they're they're just gonna go back to what that
11:24
Speaker 2: should have been, which is a nine to eight, eight
11:26
Speaker 2: to nine kind of team. So won't be shocked to
11:29
Speaker 2: see them start the season zero and two. The pros
11:32
Speaker 2: were all over the Bucks last week in the same
11:34
Speaker 2: scenario here, Like the Eagles have the same setup. They
11:36
Speaker 2: have Smith and aj Brown on the outside, two receivers
11:40
Speaker 2: that this this Vikings team won't be able to cover.
11:43
Speaker 2: And we saw last week with Godwin and Mike Evans,
11:45
Speaker 2: they just kept getting open, even for Baker and Mayfield.
11:47
Speaker 2: So I usually would bet a bounce back spot here
11:51
Speaker 2: for the Vikings, but we see a time and time
11:53
Speaker 2: again these Thursday teams really favorite the home teams and
11:56
Speaker 2: the favorites, and it's just a bad, bad matchup for
11:59
Speaker 2: the Vikings team. So yeah, I was I was kind
12:03
Speaker 2: of thinking Vikings when I was at seven and a half.
12:05
Speaker 2: Once I got to seven, I was like, okay, now
12:07
Speaker 2: just hopefully. Wait, I let this get the six and
12:09
Speaker 2: a half for this Eagles team.
12:10
Speaker 1: Look, I think it could be headed that way. About
12:12
Speaker 1: seventy six percent of the money right now is on
12:15
Speaker 1: the vikings, and it did dip pretty quickly yesterday from
12:19
Speaker 1: seven and a half to seven. I'm not feeling any
12:21
Speaker 1: love for this as a contest play. We can't play
12:23
Speaker 1: Thursday games in the contest. I don't feel exact decision.
12:26
Speaker 1: I don't feel Simon says this next game, oh boy,
12:31
Speaker 1: next game. We got the Kansas City Chiefs three point
12:36
Speaker 1: favorites on the road at Jacksonville. Simon, we hate taking favorites.
12:45
Speaker 1: We hate taking road favorites. We are taking the Kansas
12:49
Speaker 1: City Chiefs this week.
12:51
Speaker 2: Yeah. And we talked about it when it was two
12:53
Speaker 2: and a half on Sunday night. We were saying, that's
12:55
Speaker 2: a good number, two and a half. Three. Little did
12:57
Speaker 2: we know, you know, the ownership would finally wait up
13:00
Speaker 2: Monday morning, come too and be like, Okay, let's just
13:02
Speaker 2: pay Chris Jones, give him a one year deal, get
13:04
Speaker 2: our guy back for that interior d line. And that's
13:06
Speaker 2: just a big deal of the identity of this team.
13:08
Speaker 2: So we bet it. I didn't put a lot on it.
13:11
Speaker 2: The hope is I take it again here at three
13:13
Speaker 2: with everyone else. It's gonna be the most one and
13:15
Speaker 2: more public bet games of the week. And then we
13:18
Speaker 2: get news that Kelsey is playing in this game, and
13:19
Speaker 2: this jumps up to minus four, maybe minus four and
13:22
Speaker 2: a half. So I'm just trying to beat the number.
13:24
Speaker 2: I think this is a good, good line where you
13:26
Speaker 2: can do that. We could make this. Simon says it's
13:28
Speaker 2: a little chalky, though, so I don't want to do that.
13:30
Speaker 2: I feel like that's too easy for this show. Anytime
13:32
Speaker 2: we're catching Mahomes under a field goal on this show,
13:35
Speaker 2: we almost always take him, and if he's a dog,
13:38
Speaker 2: we almost always take him. So it's whenever it gets
13:40
Speaker 2: to three and a half four that's when we start
13:43
Speaker 2: looking the other way, which again, you could do in
13:45
Speaker 2: the spot if you got two and a half the
13:46
Speaker 2: line closed at four to four and a half, you
13:49
Speaker 2: could try to play both spies to try to hit
13:50
Speaker 2: that middle. We just talk all the time. This Chiefs
13:53
Speaker 2: team win close games. They're not really a team that
13:55
Speaker 2: blows teams out, so that definitely one of the more
13:57
Speaker 2: interesting lines of the week.
13:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, look, I don't know how we ignore Patrick Mahomes
14:03
Speaker 1: in this spot. Evan has done some great work.
14:06
Speaker 2: He's just great to back after a loss.
14:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's great to back after a loss, great to
14:11
Speaker 1: back at minus three or less at nineteen six and
14:15
Speaker 1: one against the spread.
14:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, that sounds right.
14:18
Speaker 1: It's like that's when you get him. And people will
14:22
Speaker 1: get on Patrick Mahomes and say, oh, he doesn't always cover,
14:26
Speaker 1: but don't forget the majority of the time Patrick Mahomes
14:29
Speaker 1: is playing, he's a pretty significant favorite. Sixty nine now
14:34
Speaker 1: times in his career he's been a favorite of three
14:36
Speaker 1: and a half or higher. That's the majority of his games.
14:40
Speaker 1: So of course you're going to have a hard time
14:42
Speaker 1: covering when you're always more than a field goal favorite
14:44
Speaker 1: and even higher at minus three. That's the play.
14:47
Speaker 2: It's a lot of hype, a lot of noise coming
14:49
Speaker 2: into the season, and Mahomes didn't cover, Joe Burrow didn't cover,
14:53
Speaker 2: and Josh Allen didn't cover. The three lead guys in
14:55
Speaker 2: the AFC they auto rough go and that's kind of
14:58
Speaker 2: how me and Chad we try to make money as
15:00
Speaker 2: we try to take the ugly quarterback. So a great
15:03
Speaker 2: example of that for Week one I think our fans
15:05
Speaker 2: are understand though, Like this is my sign says what
15:07
Speaker 2: I'm telling you to grab it now just in case
15:09
Speaker 2: if Kelsey gets cleared, this will go up to four
15:12
Speaker 2: to four and a half.
15:12
Speaker 1: Yes, all right, So we got the Raiders visiting the Bills.
15:21
Speaker 1: The autumn win is a Raider pillaging just for fun.
15:25
Speaker 1: Last night before Monday Night football, this game was at
15:29
Speaker 1: minus ten Buffalo. Now I'm seeing eight and a half. Obviously,
15:35
Speaker 1: the Bills did not look very good against a dominant
15:40
Speaker 1: Jets defense. But even though they didn't look good, Josh
15:44
Speaker 1: Allen actually looked atrocious in the second half, right Like
15:48
Speaker 1: he was competitive in the first half. He had moments
15:51
Speaker 1: in the first half. In the second half, he just
15:53
Speaker 1: looked like he didn't know what he was doing. He
15:56
Speaker 1: couldn't make decisions. He was literally fumbling the ball. I mean,
16:00
Speaker 1: the Jets defense clearly won on that game. What's our
16:06
Speaker 1: takeaway on Josh Allen right now?
16:09
Speaker 2: It's exactly what I said it was going to be
16:11
Speaker 2: last week when I told you what was gonna happen
16:12
Speaker 2: in that Jets game. I said he was going to
16:13
Speaker 2: play terrible. Everybody was going to overreact. They're going to
16:17
Speaker 2: start bad mouthing him. It's just people want to tear
16:20
Speaker 2: you down. That's the whole. That is how humans operate.
16:23
Speaker 2: Humans want to build you up and then be able
16:25
Speaker 2: to tear you down, and that's what we have with
16:27
Speaker 2: Josh Allen. Josh Allen was one of the most hype
16:30
Speaker 2: quarterbacks ever after that Chiefs Bills game, right, I mean,
16:33
Speaker 2: that was one of the most incredible playoff performances we've
16:35
Speaker 2: ever seen. And then the following year. Last year, he
16:39
Speaker 2: started out great, got the elbow injury, and his numbers
16:42
Speaker 2: reflected that he played terrible for half the other season.
16:45
Speaker 2: So everyone's coming out of the woodwork now saying has
16:47
Speaker 2: this guy even been good since that one game he
16:49
Speaker 2: had against Mahomes. People are just gonna trash him all week.
16:53
Speaker 2: I love it. This is my Simon says game. If
16:55
Speaker 2: you can grab that eight and a half, grab it
16:57
Speaker 2: right now. This is a no brainer game. The Jets
17:01
Speaker 2: have built their defense to stop one man. They didn't
17:03
Speaker 2: build the defense drafting to stop two or mac Jones
17:06
Speaker 2: in that division. When they started building this When Joe
17:09
Speaker 2: Douglas came to this team, there was one guy he
17:11
Speaker 2: had his eye on, and that was Josh Allen, and
17:13
Speaker 2: they built this whole defense to stop Josh Allen. They
17:16
Speaker 2: have incredible speed on the outside and corners were really
17:20
Speaker 2: big and strong and really hard and tough and coverage.
17:22
Speaker 2: So horrible game by Josh. He tried doing too much
17:26
Speaker 2: and they kind of had him in that scenario of
17:29
Speaker 2: he obviously would never say he was seeing ghost, but
17:31
Speaker 2: that's what he was. The same guy picked him off
17:34
Speaker 2: three times Jet like that is an insane stat. This
17:37
Speaker 2: guy one of my favorite things ever. His bonus was
17:40
Speaker 2: tied to him getting three picks this year. So that
17:42
Speaker 2: guy got a two hundred and fifty K bonus for
17:44
Speaker 2: the season in Week one, so easiest bylow of the week.
17:47
Speaker 2: I still have this number ten for Buffalo. So the
17:50
Speaker 2: fact that we're getting a point and a half now
17:52
Speaker 2: and they're moving through key numbers. I love. I love
17:56
Speaker 2: this spot for the Bills. Such a great bounce back
17:58
Speaker 2: spot playing our Raiders team are coming off a big
18:01
Speaker 2: divisional last minute win now traveling across country to Buffalo,
18:05
Speaker 2: New York. Love it. Love this spot so much for
18:08
Speaker 2: this Bill's team. It reminds me of last year chat.
18:10
Speaker 2: I think the Seahawks one Week one, they're going to
18:13
Speaker 2: travel to go play the forty nine ers. The line
18:17
Speaker 2: was minus thirteen and the fortyits just lost to Chicago.
18:20
Speaker 2: No one was betting on Trey Lance. Everyone in their
18:22
Speaker 2: grandmo'm in that week two. Last week was all over
18:25
Speaker 2: Seattle as a double digit favorite. I beg you people
18:28
Speaker 2: to take the forty Niners as a big favorite. I
18:30
Speaker 2: think they won the game like thirty five nothing. They
18:32
Speaker 2: blew them out. I don't think Raiders will get shut
18:35
Speaker 2: out here. Raiders do have some talent for this. To me,
18:38
Speaker 2: weeks of a Josh Allen thirty five to fourteen big
18:41
Speaker 2: game win. It's just a great spot for this Bills
18:44
Speaker 2: team that they are going to be pissed off all week.
18:47
Speaker 2: Josh Allen is going to be pissed off all week.
18:49
Speaker 2: Raiders team, they're feeling good. They are feeling good coming
18:52
Speaker 2: into this game. So, yeah, this number, the fact that
18:55
Speaker 2: it moved down to eight and a half, now that
18:58
Speaker 2: I got to make it, Simon says, grab it. I
19:00
Speaker 2: think it's gonna go back up.
19:02
Speaker 1: Says do it?
19:03
Speaker 2: We do what Simon's day?
19:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, look the line is nine and a half
19:08
Speaker 1: at bet three six five, but there are a lot
19:10
Speaker 1: of eight and a half's out there, so you know,
19:13
Speaker 1: do your shopping. We love our sponsors, but do your shopping.
19:17
Speaker 1: Find the eight and a half out there. That's the
19:19
Speaker 1: Simon says Baltimore. It's Cincinnati. Cincinnati is now a three
19:24
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. Look, we discussed it on
19:27
Speaker 1: Sunday as one we should hit right away at move
19:30
Speaker 1: from three. The stat I mentioned above from Brandon Anderson
19:34
Speaker 1: applies to this game, not the road part, but the
19:37
Speaker 1: fact that Cincinnati is a double digit loser playing against
19:42
Speaker 1: a team that did not lose by double digits the Ravens.
19:47
Speaker 1: I watched a lot of that game. Look, we had
19:49
Speaker 1: the Texans plus nine and a half, plus ten, so
19:53
Speaker 1: we were invested in that Ravens Texans game and that
19:58
Speaker 1: defense was just in credibly incredibly good.
20:02
Speaker 2: C J.
20:03
Speaker 1: Stroud will he can only get better, he can't get worse.
20:07
Speaker 1: So the opportunity to look a little bit healthier against
20:10
Speaker 1: a Bengals defense that is not as good as the Ravens,
20:15
Speaker 1: you know, great for him. But Cincinnati getting healthy that's
20:19
Speaker 1: most important. And playing at home. I can see why
20:24
Speaker 1: this number moved. It's a wise guy play.
20:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just the public. I told you on Sunday,
20:29
Speaker 2: public will come in on the Ravens. If you go
20:32
Speaker 2: by the book, you would take Cinci there in that
20:34
Speaker 2: spot when they are minus three. Now it's up to
20:36
Speaker 2: minus three and a half. I still don't hate it.
20:39
Speaker 2: I mean, it's definitely one of those the books are
20:41
Speaker 2: like looking at you in there, just like, yeah, be
20:43
Speaker 2: a man, take down minus three and a half, because
20:45
Speaker 2: it does feel so much easier and better to take
20:47
Speaker 2: the Ravens there plus three and a half. So that's
20:50
Speaker 2: one of those. I don't know if we'll have it
20:52
Speaker 2: in our contest, but I'm hoping everyone listened to us
20:54
Speaker 2: and bet at the minus three because even yesterday it
20:56
Speaker 2: was still minus three and a lot of books, so
20:59
Speaker 2: to me, this is one those we just hope it
21:01
Speaker 2: comes back down because in these divisional games we see
21:04
Speaker 2: it time and time again, the spread really really comes
21:07
Speaker 2: into factors. So last week's blowout with the with them
21:10
Speaker 2: and the Browns, we're gonna find out real quick if
21:12
Speaker 2: that was the rain that affected Joe Burrow or is
21:15
Speaker 2: he really rusty and he just isn't in tune with
21:17
Speaker 2: this offense right now? But how could you not take
21:21
Speaker 2: that minus three? It was just such a great number,
21:22
Speaker 2: so not as shocked at all. On Tuesday here it's
21:25
Speaker 2: minus three and a half.
21:26
Speaker 1: Well, look, that's what happens though, right Like in these games,
21:30
Speaker 1: especially with the public coming in on Sunday as it
21:32
Speaker 1: gets closer, they could be on the Ravens because of
21:35
Speaker 1: how good they looked and how bad the Bengals looked.
21:38
Speaker 1: And these games almost always end up at a field goal.
21:41
Speaker 2: Always.
21:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, they do, they just do.
21:44
Speaker 2: And I did a show yesterday, I did a Green
21:46
Speaker 2: Dot did with Darren Ravel. He's like the most public
21:49
Speaker 2: better ever and what I said, he was shaking his
21:51
Speaker 2: head the whole time. All these people are so mad
21:54
Speaker 2: at the Bengals. Anyone like him that bet on the
21:56
Speaker 2: Bengals last week are so better that Teo's gonna be
21:59
Speaker 2: poling all on this Ravens team, while people like us
22:02
Speaker 2: that faded the Bengals were super happy come on the
22:05
Speaker 2: other side. And that's kind we talk about all the time.
22:07
Speaker 2: We're just we're riding the We're riding up and down.
22:09
Speaker 2: We're just going from one side to the other. And
22:11
Speaker 2: that's really how football is.
22:13
Speaker 1: We're gonna move like the waves in the ocean. I
22:18
Speaker 1: feel like that was a reference to a nineteen seventies
22:21
Speaker 1: TV show called Alice and a waitress called Flow.
22:27
Speaker 2: Oh. We got to give this stat real quick, all right,
22:30
Speaker 2: go ahead? Lamar Jackson five and oh ats as a
22:34
Speaker 2: dog last two years, Baltimore eighteen three and one as
22:38
Speaker 2: a dog against the spread last twenty two So going
22:44
Speaker 2: against the trend here. But I do believe that that offense,
22:47
Speaker 2: Lamar didn't look right and anytime they had a little
22:49
Speaker 2: bit of pressure, if you look at his numbers, anytime
22:52
Speaker 2: he got put off his spot, which wasn't a lot
22:54
Speaker 2: right from Houston, I think it was only seven times
22:56
Speaker 2: they got pressure. I believe only had one completion. I
22:59
Speaker 2: do think that Bengals be able to get to him.
23:01
Speaker 2: Ravens are one of those teams had a bunch of
23:03
Speaker 2: major injuries in Week one, So we'll see what happens
23:06
Speaker 2: is this upcoming week with our offensive line.
23:08
Speaker 1: Chargers visiting the Titans. Mike Rabel as a home underdog.
23:12
Speaker 1: He is plus three in this game, sixty five percent
23:17
Speaker 1: of the money coming in on the Titans. Look, Mike
23:20
Speaker 1: Rabel did us a favor we had the Titans against
23:23
Speaker 1: the Saints. He kicked the field goal in a position
23:26
Speaker 1: when a lot of other coaches would have gone for it,
23:28
Speaker 1: but we immediately bet this on Sunday night. We just
23:31
Speaker 1: assumed the number is going to move. It actually hasn't moved,
23:34
Speaker 1: which is fine, But how are you not back in
23:37
Speaker 1: Mike Rabel in this spot as an underdog stats they
23:41
Speaker 1: applied last week when he was going to play the Saints,
23:45
Speaker 1: they're only better twenty four to fifteen to one as
23:48
Speaker 1: an underdog against the spread twenty four nine and one.
23:53
Speaker 1: When the spread is three or higher and it's a
23:56
Speaker 1: coaching mismatch, there is no hesitation for me. Tannehill was all,
24:01
Speaker 1: but there's zero hesitation for me betting the Titans on
24:04
Speaker 1: this one.
24:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm hoping for three and a half. This is
24:08
Speaker 2: one of these where I'm not I'm not gonna let
24:10
Speaker 2: Chad suck me in like he did with Pittsburgh last week.
24:12
Speaker 2: This is gonna be a public dog this week, just
24:14
Speaker 2: like Pittsburgh will last week. So I'm gonna wait and
24:17
Speaker 2: see on this one because it is. It is a
24:20
Speaker 2: bad matchup for Tennessee in the sense that they are
24:23
Speaker 2: incredible against the run and getting pressure up the middle.
24:27
Speaker 2: Herbert his best weapons are wide receivers and getting outside
24:31
Speaker 2: the pocket, so they might get a little luckier the Charger.
24:34
Speaker 2: I thought this number is gonna move more because you
24:35
Speaker 2: saw Austin Eckler popped up on the injury report and
24:38
Speaker 2: he might miss this game. So I'm a little shock
24:41
Speaker 2: chat that it didn't drop. That's the only thing giving
24:43
Speaker 2: me hesitation right now. I thought the books would move
24:46
Speaker 2: this to two and a half to get some Chargers money,
24:48
Speaker 2: but they're holding that minus three. So definitely a number
24:50
Speaker 2: we're gonna keep our eye on this upcoming week.
24:53
Speaker 1: I've already bet it.
24:54
Speaker 2: I'm gonna put a lot on the three.
24:55
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, it wasn't like a full unit kind of thing.
24:58
Speaker 1: It was a test the waters. Let's dip our toe in,
25:02
Speaker 1: let's see what happens.
25:03
Speaker 2: Right.
25:04
Speaker 1: Seattle Seahawks another game we immediately talked about on Sunday night.
25:09
Speaker 1: They are plus five and a half against the Detroit
25:13
Speaker 1: Lions visiting. Fifty eight percent of the money is on Seattle.
25:17
Speaker 1: What's interesting to me is seventy two percent of the
25:20
Speaker 1: bets are on Seattle. I know that not everybody who
25:23
Speaker 1: bet this game listened to Brandon Anderson knows and knows
25:27
Speaker 1: that teams in this situation coming off a double digit
25:30
Speaker 1: loss on the road against a team that did not
25:33
Speaker 1: lose by double digits twenty four and one against the
25:36
Speaker 1: spreads in twenty sixteen. Why are people? Why is everybody
25:41
Speaker 1: else backing Seattle? Like, is it just everybody who's betting
25:45
Speaker 1: is onto the notion that if you're terrible one week
25:52
Speaker 1: and the other team is amazing in primetime, you automatically
25:56
Speaker 1: bet on the terrible team. Has everyone taken our theory?
26:00
Speaker 2: That's pretty crazy. I didn't know so much public money
26:02
Speaker 2: was coming in on this team, but we agreed with it. Like,
26:05
Speaker 2: I thought this number was really big for what Detroit is,
26:09
Speaker 2: which I do think Detroit is good. I just didn't
26:11
Speaker 2: think they're going to be five and a half six
26:12
Speaker 2: points better than the Seahawks team. So yeah, the fact
26:16
Speaker 2: that the Seaalts are signing guys now off the street
26:19
Speaker 2: to be on their offensive line is a little worrisome.
26:22
Speaker 2: They obviously have big injuries right now. But yeah, Chad,
26:26
Speaker 2: this is tough because I love this number. When we
26:28
Speaker 2: saw it Sunday, it's like, man, this is a great
26:30
Speaker 2: bounce back spot for Seattle. They're a team that, like
26:33
Speaker 2: Chad just said, they've lost by double digits now going
26:36
Speaker 2: around and played a team that I mean, is that
26:39
Speaker 2: the biggest win the Lines have had in like ten
26:42
Speaker 2: years yet opening night beating the super Bowl champs. So yeah,
26:47
Speaker 2: that place is going to be a rockin' Detroit is
26:51
Speaker 2: going to be a party there. And that's hard, mean, Chat,
26:55
Speaker 2: I talk about playing spots, and this is a spot
26:57
Speaker 2: we play. So it's making my stomach turn right now
27:00
Speaker 2: because so much money is pouring in and the number
27:03
Speaker 2: hasn't really budged, and that's that's usually a little nerve
27:06
Speaker 2: wracking for me. But we'll see where it's at later
27:08
Speaker 2: in the week when more money comes in, because right
27:10
Speaker 2: now it's it's just people putting feelers for the most
27:13
Speaker 2: part in these kind of bets. So I'm with you, Chad.
27:17
Speaker 2: I do like the Seahawks in the spot, but that's
27:19
Speaker 2: definitely a number that we would feel better if it
27:22
Speaker 2: got up to six somehow, then we wouldn't just know
27:24
Speaker 2: a man's land of five and a half.
27:26
Speaker 1: Well, we'd feel better because that means that sort of
27:29
Speaker 1: the bookmakers are starting to see the same things that
27:33
Speaker 1: we are, and the public is not seeing the same
27:36
Speaker 1: thing that we are. Because right now it feels like
27:39
Speaker 1: we're on the same side as the public, and yeah,
27:41
Speaker 1: not necessarily. It's not necessarily a place we like to be.
27:46
Speaker 2: Yeah, just it might be that we're all overrating the
27:48
Speaker 2: Seahawks team. And you know, coming to the year, we
27:50
Speaker 2: said the book might be out on Gino Smith. We're
27:54
Speaker 2: one game in, didn't look good. That Rams defense, a
27:57
Speaker 2: bunch of no names, really shut him down the second half.
27:59
Speaker 2: What they have two yards total in the entire second half?
28:02
Speaker 2: Chat some crazy stat like that. So yeah, I definitely
28:05
Speaker 2: can see the hesitation from people wanting it back to
28:07
Speaker 2: Seahawks team in the spot.
28:09
Speaker 1: Indianapolis on the road one and a half point favorite
28:15
Speaker 1: at the Houston Texans. This is a tough one. And
28:19
Speaker 1: like I watched that Colts game. They really outplayed the
28:24
Speaker 1: Jags and they should have won that game outright, forget
28:27
Speaker 1: about covering. But that Texans defense was so freaking good.
28:32
Speaker 1: It's just a couple of adjustments from CJ. Stroud and
28:37
Speaker 1: I don't I don't know that the Colts are good
28:40
Speaker 1: enough to be favorites on the road, And this feels
28:43
Speaker 1: like a huge overreaction.
28:46
Speaker 2: Yeah, another great Wong teaser aligned too. You can take
28:48
Speaker 2: ust up right now. To seven and a half. Put
28:50
Speaker 2: them in a six point teaser. If you just want
28:52
Speaker 2: to bet that these both these rookies are lost, just
28:55
Speaker 2: take the under. I mean, it's just there's a bunch
28:57
Speaker 2: of bets you can make out of this game and
28:59
Speaker 2: try to find value on. And you know, I look
29:01
Speaker 2: at this Houston team that they're probably being undervalued here.
29:05
Speaker 2: The public is going to like what they saw from
29:07
Speaker 2: the Colts. Chad's nailing it like they should have covered
29:09
Speaker 2: that number. If Minshew hadn't come in, they had a
29:11
Speaker 2: first and goal with their six six two point fifty quarterback,
29:15
Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure they would have scored and covered that number.
29:18
Speaker 2: So I think most people, instead of being burned I'm
29:21
Speaker 2: betting the Colts last week, the pros will probably come
29:24
Speaker 2: back in on them and the public would join them
29:26
Speaker 2: just because they looked like the better team. Houston did not.
29:30
Speaker 2: That offense did not look like they're really going to
29:33
Speaker 2: be putting up points this year. And so for me
29:35
Speaker 2: and Chad, we got to fade that notion and just
29:38
Speaker 2: be like, that's a really good Ravens defense. That was
29:41
Speaker 2: a rookies' first start on the road, a head coaches
29:44
Speaker 2: first start on the road. Now they're back home in
29:46
Speaker 2: this spot, facing a rookie quarterback and a rookie head coach.
29:50
Speaker 2: We got to take the dog, like this is one
29:52
Speaker 2: of the Houston ones. I don't feel great about it, Chad.
29:54
Speaker 2: But it's like there's a couple of games this week
29:57
Speaker 2: that's just like the Arizona game last week, Like you
30:00
Speaker 2: got to trust the number and view a team being overrated,
30:03
Speaker 2: just hold your nose and take this number. So yeah,
30:05
Speaker 2: I'll have the under I'll have Houston t's and I'll
30:07
Speaker 2: take Houston straight in this number.
30:10
Speaker 1: But would that be a full size Houston as a
30:16
Speaker 1: dog or smaller because you're spreading it out and we're
30:20
Speaker 1: still deciding what we think of this team.
30:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, no, I'm not going huge on this. I
30:26
Speaker 2: just I just don't know what. I haven't sej yet,
30:28
Speaker 2: Like I even trying to make a number on him.
30:31
Speaker 2: This week was really tough. Same with Anthony Richardson, like
30:34
Speaker 2: a lot of good, bad, and ugly. The kid can
30:36
Speaker 2: only throw to one side of the field apparently, Like
30:38
Speaker 2: if you look at his spray chart, Anthony Richardson, all
30:40
Speaker 2: he does is throw it to one side of the field.
30:42
Speaker 2: Guess who has these spray charts all these NFL head coaches.
30:45
Speaker 2: So if that's what it takes Houston this week. They're
30:49
Speaker 2: great defensive minds, They'll just take away that side of
30:51
Speaker 2: the field. So that's that's the thing here. I'm just
30:54
Speaker 2: I'm gonna just play the number because it feels like
30:56
Speaker 2: it's a good number back in this Houston team.
30:58
Speaker 1: Hackers looked like world beaters against the high school defense
31:03
Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears. I'll remind everybody the Baltimore Ravens traded
31:08
Speaker 1: for Roquan Smith and gave him a massive contract. That
31:12
Speaker 1: guy was at the center of the Bears defense and
31:15
Speaker 1: they decided he wasn't good enough. Now we are letting
31:18
Speaker 1: Jordan Love look like he is a Hall of Famer
31:22
Speaker 1: in the first week of the season. I'm not buying
31:25
Speaker 1: the hype yet. And they're on the road at the Falcons.
31:28
Speaker 1: The Falcons are underdogs. Tickets coming in on the Packers,
31:32
Speaker 1: money coming in on the Falcons. A reminder for everybody,
31:37
Speaker 1: tickets means public money means professional betters. Simon, I don't
31:42
Speaker 1: know how many times we have to say it. We're
31:43
Speaker 1: in Atlanta Falcons podcast. It makes no sense to me.
31:46
Speaker 1: The Falcons would be underdogs at home against this team.
31:50
Speaker 1: It makes zero sense. I remember on Sunday night, I
31:54
Speaker 1: kept fumbling it all over it because I kept saying
31:56
Speaker 1: that we're one and a half point favorites. You're like, no,
31:58
Speaker 1: they're dogs. Because I couldn't belie my eyes.
32:01
Speaker 2: Another game, great for a Wong teaser. It's one and
32:03
Speaker 2: a half. Take it up to seven and a half.
32:05
Speaker 2: It's just sometimes it's too easy. And this just feels
32:08
Speaker 2: like the same thing with Houston, like we're getting a
32:10
Speaker 2: home dog that anyone that watched that game finally came
32:14
Speaker 2: to the opinion that I had all offseason, which is
32:16
Speaker 2: rare is not a starting quarterback in this league. This
32:19
Speaker 2: guy cannot put the ball downfield. But holy hell, is
32:22
Speaker 2: that run blocking scheme incredible for this Atlanta team. So
32:26
Speaker 2: I kind of think we saw their identity for the
32:27
Speaker 2: whole season. Atlanta. They're going to rely on their defense
32:31
Speaker 2: and running the ball, and one of Green Bay's biggest
32:34
Speaker 2: weaknesses is against the run. So we will take Algier,
32:38
Speaker 2: We'll take Robinson and that amazing backfield, and we'll roll
32:41
Speaker 2: the dice here with a home dog. It's I'm trying
32:44
Speaker 2: to make this one of our five one of these
32:45
Speaker 2: two teams is definitely gonna make the playoffs from winning
32:47
Speaker 2: this game, right, we see the stats. Teams that start
32:49
Speaker 2: two and zero, they have a really high percentage of
32:51
Speaker 2: making the playoffs. So what team do you really believe
32:54
Speaker 2: in here, Chad, to make a playoff run? Is it
32:57
Speaker 2: Green Bay in that tough division or is it Atlanta
32:58
Speaker 2: in this really soft division where they them The Saints
33:01
Speaker 2: look like, you know, they're gonna be the best. I know,
33:04
Speaker 2: the Bucks hype's crazy right now, but oh man, it's
33:06
Speaker 2: a hard one to swallow because we are banking on
33:10
Speaker 2: Jordan Love not being as good as he looked against
33:12
Speaker 2: the Bears. Because, let's face it, every Packers quarterback last
33:14
Speaker 2: thirty years has looked good against the Bears. But man,
33:19
Speaker 2: there's a couple of times there where he just had
33:21
Speaker 2: zero pressure. So that's the thing here. We're gonna learn
33:24
Speaker 2: if Atlanta has some good pass rushers or his Bryce
33:26
Speaker 2: Young just complete dog shit last week. So because Green
33:29
Speaker 2: Bay's offensive line looked good, I mean again, Chattery talked
33:31
Speaker 2: about the Bears they didn't really have any pass rushers
33:34
Speaker 2: coming into this season. So another one that's making me
33:36
Speaker 2: a little uneasy because Jordan Love could be this good
33:39
Speaker 2: in this offense, Like, we just don't know because that
33:42
Speaker 2: game kind of got out of hand so quickly. That
33:44
Speaker 2: Bears Green Bay game where that defense just looked lost
33:47
Speaker 2: for the Bears.
33:48
Speaker 1: That Bears defense looked horrible, but it did. It did
33:52
Speaker 1: put Jordan Love in a lot of really advantageous spots.
33:57
Speaker 1: And I do think that the Falcon secondary, I mean,
34:00
Speaker 1: everybody's secretary is better than the Bears. But I'm telling
34:03
Speaker 1: you right now, I'm making an executive decision. The choice
34:09
Speaker 1: between the unthinkable and the impossible.
34:11
Speaker 2: Are you have your honors? I see number executive decision.
34:17
Speaker 1: Give me the Atlanta Falcons. Give me Arthur Smith, give
34:20
Speaker 1: me the.
34:21
Speaker 2: To the Chiefs.
34:22
Speaker 1: What's that? No? I moved on. I said, I wasn't
34:25
Speaker 1: pulling the trigger. I said there were a couple other
34:27
Speaker 1: games that were on the slate that I wanted to
34:31
Speaker 1: look at, and there's one more that is really interesting
34:35
Speaker 1: to me. But the more we talk about it, like,
34:37
Speaker 1: I just can't quit Arthur Smith. I think he is
34:40
Speaker 1: such a good coach. The team puts itself in a
34:43
Speaker 1: position to win right, it doesn't make the stupid mistakes.
34:47
Speaker 1: He's not gonna let Desmond Ritter make the stupid mistakes.
34:50
Speaker 1: He's going to get the ball into Bijon. He's going
34:52
Speaker 1: to get the ball into Algier like at home. They're
34:55
Speaker 1: just going to make the right call against the run
34:57
Speaker 1: defense that that this is their weakness. So Atlanta Falcons
35:01
Speaker 1: exec decision. Here we go, Simon. I know you know it,
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35:58
Speaker 1: twenty dollars off your first purchase. Supply again just download
36:01
Speaker 1: the app and her code favorites for twenty dollars off
36:03
Speaker 1: less minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. The other game that
36:07
Speaker 1: I was going to talk about for my exec decision,
36:11
Speaker 1: are you ready? The Chicago Bears three point dogs visiting
36:19
Speaker 1: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Dude, I can tell you right
36:24
Speaker 1: now the Bears are going to be one of our five.
36:27
Speaker 2: I don't know about that, but yeah, I do like
36:29
Speaker 2: the number. It's a good number. I'm with you on
36:31
Speaker 2: taking the three A.
36:32
Speaker 1: I talked about that stat about the teams that lose
36:35
Speaker 1: by double digits against a team that by double digits
36:39
Speaker 1: since twenty since those teams since twenty twelve, twenty four
36:43
Speaker 1: and one against the spread if they are on the road. Okay, Seattle,
36:48
Speaker 1: Seattle and the Bears. So let me talk a little
36:51
Speaker 1: bit of But one of the reasons I chose the
36:53
Speaker 1: Falcons instead of the Packers is the Bears. The Bears
37:01
Speaker 1: allowed eight and a half yards per pass attempt. They
37:05
Speaker 1: were nine if they allowed the Packers to go nine
37:07
Speaker 1: of sixteen on third downs. Not very good, right, But
37:11
Speaker 1: that also shows Jordan Love really didn't have much pressure
37:15
Speaker 1: and much defense in that game. The Bears offense twenty
37:20
Speaker 1: two first downs, greater time of possession, three turnovers which
37:26
Speaker 1: gave Jordan Love short fields, and four sacks. Okay. The
37:31
Speaker 1: Bucks defense, meanwhile, gave up three hundred and forty four
37:35
Speaker 1: passing yards six yards per play, allowed Cousins to complete
37:39
Speaker 1: thirty three of forty four passes seven yards per attempt. Okay.
37:44
Speaker 1: Like I said, Minnesota lost this game because of mistakes
37:47
Speaker 1: by Kirk in the red zone at the end of
37:49
Speaker 1: the first half. The Bears are better than they played.
37:55
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay is not as good as they played. This
37:57
Speaker 1: is a smash Bear spot.
38:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's pretty simple too, where if you if
38:02
Speaker 2: you give home field advantage one and a half two points, now,
38:05
Speaker 2: which most books do, these these teams are pretty much
38:09
Speaker 2: at the same level. The Bears are slightly graded out
38:11
Speaker 2: a little better. So the fact that we're getting a
38:14
Speaker 2: free point here just because the Bears played so poorly,
38:17
Speaker 2: and you're right, it's just another game of it's gonna
38:21
Speaker 2: be mostly professional money coming on this Bears team, just
38:23
Speaker 2: because you know, if you're trying to bet and rationalize
38:27
Speaker 2: this game, you could also look the other way. Chad,
38:28
Speaker 2: of your guys secondary is really bad. That's what the
38:31
Speaker 2: Bucks want to attack with Mike Evans and Godwin. So
38:34
Speaker 2: I've already told people the pros of love love this
38:37
Speaker 2: Bucks team coming into the year like that was their team.
38:40
Speaker 2: I know plenty of pros that already grabbed this number
38:42
Speaker 2: when I was at one, one and a half on
38:44
Speaker 2: this Bucks team. That's why I don't see this number
38:47
Speaker 2: again to three and a half. I think the books
38:49
Speaker 2: know if they move to three and a half, guys
38:51
Speaker 2: will just come on both sides. They'll take the Bears
38:53
Speaker 2: and they'll take the Bucks in the spot. So yeah,
38:57
Speaker 2: looking at this matchup chat, it's just a great bounce
39:00
Speaker 2: back spot for this Bears team. The fact that we're
39:02
Speaker 2: catching three such a key number, That's what I mean.
39:06
Speaker 2: It's like, I'm right there with you. It's just as
39:08
Speaker 2: we sit here on Tuesday, it's like, ah, man, am
39:10
Speaker 2: I really gonna make this one of our five. It's
39:13
Speaker 2: it's hard to say.
39:15
Speaker 1: I'm in right now. It's hard not to say.
39:19
Speaker 2: I put it in now, but I'm saying come Sunday,
39:21
Speaker 2: it's gonna be a hard pill to swallow, being like, man,
39:23
Speaker 2: we're taking this Bears team on the road.
39:25
Speaker 1: Is it a hard pill? To swallow because we started
39:27
Speaker 1: two and three and we're holding on tight. Or is
39:31
Speaker 1: it a hard pill to swallow because we don't like
39:34
Speaker 1: the Bears in this spot, because it's a one good
39:38
Speaker 1: spot for the Bears. Eighty one percent of the money
39:40
Speaker 1: right now on the Bears, the money, not the bets.
39:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I got no fear here. It's just it's
39:47
Speaker 2: just one of those. It's a hard pill the swallow
39:49
Speaker 2: just because the Bears suck. That's what I'm trying to
39:51
Speaker 2: convince myself. They don't suck yet. I rewatched that game
39:56
Speaker 2: already twice, and the Bears on major issues. I think
40:01
Speaker 2: you know that just as well as I do. It's
40:04
Speaker 2: as much as you want to blame the OC, a
40:06
Speaker 2: lot of this is falling on fields. Fields needs to
40:09
Speaker 2: start making the right reads, stop getting happy feet. We
40:12
Speaker 2: already said there's no more excuses for no more excuses,
40:15
Speaker 2: like you got the weapons, now you gotta semi decent
40:18
Speaker 2: offensive behind, Like yeah, he's got to show it here
40:21
Speaker 2: like that Bucks. This Bucks team does not have a
40:23
Speaker 2: pass us. They're good against the run, and then I
40:25
Speaker 2: mean they they are good against the run, but passing wise, Yeah,
40:28
Speaker 2: come on, come on, Fields, this this is gonna be
40:30
Speaker 2: the game where he opens it up and throws for
40:32
Speaker 2: three hundred yards.
40:33
Speaker 1: Oh man, they're such a bad team. It's just it's incredible.
40:37
Speaker 2: But it's a bad team with the pressure of a
40:38
Speaker 2: whole city on its back. So it's just a tough,
40:41
Speaker 2: tough spot.
40:41
Speaker 1: It really is. All right, here's another one that I
40:44
Speaker 1: think we're gonna like, and this number is Racing Giants
40:48
Speaker 1: five point favorites against the Cardinals. Last night, this number
40:51
Speaker 1: was four. Yeah, so it is moving. It makes total sense,
40:55
Speaker 1: like you're gonna bet the team that just got blown
40:58
Speaker 1: out on Monday night fade the team that played better
41:01
Speaker 1: than it possibly could have played in Week one against
41:04
Speaker 1: a team that's pretty bad in Washington. It doesn't matter.
41:08
Speaker 1: Everybody's on the Giants in this game, which is why
41:10
Speaker 1: the number is running. And five is a dead number,
41:13
Speaker 1: So bet it now because it's only going to go higher.
41:19
Speaker 2: Yeah. It feels like a total mismatch and coaching. You know,
41:22
Speaker 2: you can look at this and say, well, look how
41:24
Speaker 2: hard that Arizona team played. I don't know if playing
41:27
Speaker 2: dirty is considered playing hard, Like a lot of what
41:29
Speaker 2: I saw in that game was just an Arizona team
41:31
Speaker 2: that played dirty, Like a lot of the stuff they're
41:33
Speaker 2: doing is dirty playing, and you know that maybe that's
41:37
Speaker 2: what their coach wanting to do and be one of
41:39
Speaker 2: those teams. But yeah, this this Giants team, I honestly
41:44
Speaker 2: am shocked that so much money has come in on them.
41:47
Speaker 2: The public's all over them too. I thought maybe we'd
41:49
Speaker 2: get a little free be here and be like, yeah,
41:52
Speaker 2: they'll come in on Arizona, We'll be able to back
41:53
Speaker 2: this Giants team because it is a great spot for
41:55
Speaker 2: this Giants team. But if this gets up to six,
41:59
Speaker 2: how do I not take Arizona in this game? Like Arizona,
42:03
Speaker 2: as bad as they are, this Giants team are no
42:06
Speaker 2: world beaters. Like we saw that Daniel Jones, he was
42:09
Speaker 2: the most efficient quarterback last year and not turning the
42:12
Speaker 2: ball over. So there's gonna be some regression back to
42:15
Speaker 2: the mean this upcoming season. I think we saw a
42:17
Speaker 2: lot of that in that first game. So great bounce
42:21
Speaker 2: back spot for the Giants. If me and Chad want
42:23
Speaker 2: to keep being the lazy survivor pick, this is a
42:25
Speaker 2: great lazy survivor pick tacking this Giants team. Like any
42:28
Speaker 2: week we can get Arizona about Kyler Murray and we're
42:31
Speaker 2: using these shitty ass NFC East teams. It's hard not
42:34
Speaker 2: to like. I felt, I really can't go o how
42:36
Speaker 2: good it feels I have Washington Donner River Pools. So definitely,
42:40
Speaker 2: Giants are up there for a team that they might
42:43
Speaker 2: not cover this number again, but I could easily see
42:45
Speaker 2: them winning this game out right. You know, this Arizona
42:48
Speaker 2: team without that touchdown given them by the QB last
42:52
Speaker 2: week on Washington, I don't even remember what Sam was doing,
42:55
Speaker 2: but I think he dropped back. He tried to scramble
42:58
Speaker 2: and he like either dropped it or got back out
43:00
Speaker 2: of his hand. The guy picked it up and walked
43:02
Speaker 2: into the end zone. Washington would never have been I mean,
43:04
Speaker 2: Cardinals have never been close in that game, right. They
43:06
Speaker 2: would have lost by eleven without that touchdown. So definitely
43:10
Speaker 2: something I'm weary of betting this Arizona team back to
43:12
Speaker 2: back weeks, but I got to do it. If against
43:15
Speaker 2: the six like Giants had four four and a half,
43:17
Speaker 2: I think there is value there if you want to
43:19
Speaker 2: take that number, But if it gets the sixth, the
43:21
Speaker 2: values totally shifted back to This Arizona team shed.
43:24
Speaker 1: Forty nine ers on the road at the Rams, huge
43:28
Speaker 1: number eight and a half. Tough one here, like Kyle
43:31
Speaker 1: Shanahan always outplays Sean McVay. The Niners. You talked about
43:34
Speaker 1: how did you end up power rating them.
43:37
Speaker 2: I still got them with right there behind the Eagles.
43:39
Speaker 2: So if they played on a neutral field right now,
43:41
Speaker 2: I'd make the Eagles a one point favorite. So that's
43:44
Speaker 2: one of those where it coming to the season and
43:46
Speaker 2: probably was two and a half three and now it's
43:49
Speaker 2: down to one, and with the Cowboys it's down to two.
43:52
Speaker 2: So both those teams, again, this is September, so much
43:55
Speaker 2: is going to change come playoff time. But I do
43:58
Speaker 2: have it that I thought there's a little bit of
44:00
Speaker 2: a gap between the Eagles and the forty nine ers.
44:02
Speaker 2: And you know, clearly Brock Purdy he's come back from
44:06
Speaker 2: this injury incredibly well and he just looks totally in
44:10
Speaker 2: tune with this offense. So yeah, it's it's definitely a
44:14
Speaker 2: team that I undervalued come into the season, and now
44:17
Speaker 2: they have my full attention.
44:19
Speaker 1: So what do you think of this number at eight
44:20
Speaker 1: and a half?
44:22
Speaker 2: You know what I'm doing here, Chad or been in
44:24
Speaker 2: the Rams, Yeah, no brainer, home Divisional dog eight and
44:28
Speaker 2: a half. Rock Purdy and the forty nine ers played
44:31
Speaker 2: near perfect that first half, like that offense was humming
44:35
Speaker 2: and their defense was absolutely humming against that Pittsburgh team.
44:39
Speaker 2: Now they're coming back to play a team that just
44:41
Speaker 2: like last week, Chad, no one's gonna believe in. I
44:43
Speaker 2: told you it was just gonna be this way. No
44:45
Speaker 2: one's gonna believe in this Rams team. And it's just
44:47
Speaker 2: because the general public doesn't understand how good Stafford is.
44:50
Speaker 2: So I'll keep taking the value that is Stafford and
44:53
Speaker 2: this this you know, skeleton bone crew of a team
44:57
Speaker 2: of Rams, and you know number should be seven. That's
45:02
Speaker 2: what it opened at the pros. The public, everyone's coming.
45:05
Speaker 2: They've bened it up to what Chad just said, eight
45:07
Speaker 2: and a half. So taking the valley there, taking the
45:10
Speaker 2: Rams eight and a.
45:11
Speaker 1: Half, you think the number should be at seven?
45:13
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, I thought that was a good number when
45:15
Speaker 2: they opened it, but clearly professionals thought otherwise because they've
45:19
Speaker 2: just been hammering this number.
45:21
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46:13
Speaker 1: I don't really want to talk about Washington at Denver.
46:15
Speaker 1: I don't want to watch that game.
46:17
Speaker 2: Oh the Denver Broncos.
46:19
Speaker 1: If you tell me you think there's value on either team,
46:22
Speaker 1: I would be shocked. Denver's three and a half point.
46:25
Speaker 2: Favorite bill value on Denver. People are gonna be pissed
46:28
Speaker 2: them better about last week. But that's just that's gonna
46:31
Speaker 2: be the growing pains of learning Sean Payton's new offense.
46:33
Speaker 2: Wilson was a machine in that game the first half,
46:36
Speaker 2: completely disappeared in the second half. Yeah, Wilson might be finished,
46:39
Speaker 2: Yad's that's a fear with this Denver team. But not
46:42
Speaker 2: gonna overreact to week one, Gonna stick to my power ratings.
46:45
Speaker 2: I have this number of minus four, taking the minus
46:48
Speaker 2: three and a half with this Denver team, But this
46:50
Speaker 2: will not be one of our five.
46:51
Speaker 1: No, all right, Aaron Rodgers Achilles injury out for the season.
46:56
Speaker 1: Zach Wilson. Now the quarterback Jets are nine and a
46:59
Speaker 1: half half point road dogs at the Cowboys. I don't know,
47:04
Speaker 1: man Like, it's a really hard game to think about
47:08
Speaker 1: betting when you got Zach Wilson and a Cowboys defense
47:12
Speaker 1: that just did what it did on the road and
47:14
Speaker 1: is so freaking fast. Like Zach Wilson looked out of
47:17
Speaker 1: sorts playing against a Bills defense that isn't nearly as good.
47:22
Speaker 1: I know the circumstances are different. I know he's getting
47:24
Speaker 1: a full week. I know they can game plan for him,
47:26
Speaker 1: but kind of feels like a pass to me.
47:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll see, We'll see where this number goes. But
47:33
Speaker 2: one of those the books got absolutely crushed. Open the
47:35
Speaker 2: over under a forty five and a half. Everyone in
47:37
Speaker 2: their grandmom came on the under forty five and a half.
47:39
Speaker 2: They reopened at forty two, got pounded again. Now it's
47:42
Speaker 2: down to thirty nine and a half thirty nine at
47:43
Speaker 2: most books. Love the under in this spot. Still unsure
47:47
Speaker 2: about Dak and this offense. Have my questions there, especially
47:51
Speaker 2: against this Jets defense, which knows that they're the identity
47:54
Speaker 2: of the team. So yeah, one of those best shadow.
47:58
Speaker 2: I feel so lucky that me and you just the
48:00
Speaker 2: Jets bet the Runders bet them to miss the playoffs,
48:03
Speaker 2: didn't take any type of Super Bowl futures like the Jets.
48:07
Speaker 2: Whatever it is Joe Namath did. Joe Namath sold his
48:10
Speaker 2: soul and the Jets soul for that Super Bowl, Like
48:13
Speaker 2: who's got worse luck the man? It was his fourth
48:17
Speaker 2: snap and his achilles snat Like it's just I feel
48:21
Speaker 2: so her book for the Jets. So as a pity bet,
48:25
Speaker 2: if it gets the ten, I'll probably end up on
48:27
Speaker 2: the Jets because that's just such a huge number. I
48:30
Speaker 2: think their defense can cover that number themselves. So nine
48:33
Speaker 2: and a half. I'm with you, Chad, No play.
48:35
Speaker 1: Uh Dolphins visiting the Patriots. This is our Sunday night game.
48:39
Speaker 1: Sixty percent of the people in our YouTube chat currently
48:42
Speaker 1: watching like the Dolphins here simon.
48:45
Speaker 2: What the people I know seriously better than that.
48:49
Speaker 1: Of course we're betting the Patriots like this, This, the Bears,
48:54
Speaker 1: and the Falcons were the three on my list for
48:58
Speaker 1: exact decision.
48:59
Speaker 2: Yeah, I definitely thought I definitely circle this as most
49:02
Speaker 2: likely being our big balls by the week. Because of
49:04
Speaker 2: all of our bets, this is the one I hate
49:07
Speaker 2: the most. I hate this bet just because the Patriots
49:11
Speaker 2: let us down so horribly last week.
49:13
Speaker 1: It doesn't matter exactly exactly.
49:16
Speaker 2: So that's the thing.
49:17
Speaker 1: Just like, let me take you back to the beginning
49:19
Speaker 1: of the show. We are professionals. What happened last week
49:24
Speaker 1: doesn't impact this week.
49:25
Speaker 2: You maybe up so fast you make.
49:27
Speaker 1: The right decision every time. You don't get emotional about
49:33
Speaker 1: a team.
49:34
Speaker 2: But yeah, we we're playing the number year. So the
49:37
Speaker 2: hope is this gets the three.
49:39
Speaker 1: Yep.
49:39
Speaker 2: But this will be everyone in the world will be
49:43
Speaker 2: coming in on this Miami team in a primetime game,
49:46
Speaker 2: in a divisional game. I like this Patriots defense. I
49:50
Speaker 2: thought they played so well against that Egos offense and
49:53
Speaker 2: slowing down those receivers. So, yeah, Miami on the turf.
49:57
Speaker 2: It's a lot different playing now in California that coming
50:00
Speaker 2: back east playing up in New England. Yeah, this is
50:03
Speaker 2: a this is a great spot to try to fade
50:05
Speaker 2: the hype of Tua. Give us the three because I
50:07
Speaker 2: haven't touched this number yet because I'm waiting for the
50:09
Speaker 2: three Jets. So that's the hope here. I think it
50:12
Speaker 2: opened one and a half two now to two and
50:14
Speaker 2: a half in a lot of books. Get us there.
50:16
Speaker 2: It's the same thing with the Jets, where it's like,
50:19
Speaker 2: we know we're taking the spot, We'll take the two
50:21
Speaker 2: and a half if we have through, but we want
50:23
Speaker 2: the three. So yeah, this is going to be a
50:25
Speaker 2: pros versus Joe's game. I know almost any probably talk
50:28
Speaker 2: to they're going to be on this Patriots team.
50:30
Speaker 1: Well you're you're looking at one of them Saints visiting
50:43
Speaker 1: the Panthers Monday Night football. We got two Monday Night
50:45
Speaker 1: Football games this week. Derek Carr I thought he played
50:49
Speaker 1: really well. They're visiting the Panthers. They're three, three and
50:52
Speaker 1: a half point favorites.
50:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, we missed the best number. You could have got
50:55
Speaker 2: two and a half three on the Saints team. Now
50:57
Speaker 2: it's gone. I don't know what I'm I do. Maybe
51:00
Speaker 2: maybe I'll talk to some pros. I want to take
51:02
Speaker 2: this Carolina team, but I got this number at three.
51:05
Speaker 2: So the number the value is technically on Carolina. What
51:10
Speaker 2: do we what are we building off of what we
51:11
Speaker 2: saw from Carolina last week that we want to bet on?
51:13
Speaker 2: There was just they showed us nothing. And Bryce young Man,
51:18
Speaker 2: I know, I know rookies have rough first starts, but
51:20
Speaker 2: he had the worst one of all the rooks. So
51:23
Speaker 2: it's just scary knowing what they have on that d line.
51:26
Speaker 2: But satan Sty is really good. I don't think that
51:29
Speaker 2: was all on Tannehill. I thought their defense had a
51:31
Speaker 2: ton of pressure on Tannehill and their corners played really well.
51:33
Speaker 2: So yeah, I talked to it. I thought the Saints
51:36
Speaker 2: of the cream of the crop in this division. But
51:38
Speaker 2: that's that's hard not to take that divisional home dog
51:41
Speaker 2: in a primetime game. So another game we'll have to
51:44
Speaker 2: revisit on Thursday.
51:46
Speaker 1: Last game on the board, Cleveland is visiting Pittsburgh. Cleveland
51:51
Speaker 1: is a two point favorite on the road coming off
51:54
Speaker 1: the big win against the Bengals. We loved Cleveland, It's
51:57
Speaker 1: one of your three biggest bets. We'd been talking about
51:59
Speaker 1: him for months. We had them outright. The Steelers we loved.
52:03
Speaker 1: You might have loved a little bit less than me.
52:06
Speaker 1: You have made it clear with very nuanced and subtle
52:09
Speaker 1: passive aggressive comments about it being a public dog, as
52:14
Speaker 1: if it's my fault we put him in the contest.
52:16
Speaker 1: I hear you, Simon, I hear what you're saying. Okay,
52:19
Speaker 1: don't give me this bullshit. Steelers are two and a
52:23
Speaker 1: half point home dogs. Money is on the Steelers, tickets
52:27
Speaker 1: are on the Browns. Of course.
52:29
Speaker 2: Wow, I'm shocked. It's not the money on the Browns,
52:31
Speaker 2: tickets on the Steelers. I like the Browns here, Like
52:34
Speaker 2: I know, I've gone through and watched that game and
52:37
Speaker 2: it doesn't feel that flukey. I mean, we were high
52:41
Speaker 2: on this D line and nothing's changed, Like their D
52:44
Speaker 2: line is so dominant. And when I will go back
52:47
Speaker 2: and watch that forty nine Ers game, you know, Nick
52:51
Speaker 2: Bosa wasn't even that much of a game wrecker. It
52:53
Speaker 2: was the whole forty nine Ers front that got pushed
52:55
Speaker 2: against this Pittsburgh go line. And I knew coming in
52:57
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh's line was the weakness and that I was hoping
53:00
Speaker 2: they improved from last year. Doesn't look like it. So Historically,
53:04
Speaker 2: the Steelers do bounce back usually good in this spot,
53:07
Speaker 2: especially Tomlin at home as a dog. That's the only
53:11
Speaker 2: reason we might not have this one in the contest
53:13
Speaker 2: going Cleveland. But feel's got a good number like this
53:18
Speaker 2: this Cleveland team. You can say what you want about
53:21
Speaker 2: Watson last week. He made the plays that Joe Burrow
53:24
Speaker 2: couldn't like. He was making the same He was thrown
53:26
Speaker 2: in the same weather that Joe Burrow was dealing with,
53:28
Speaker 2: and he was making the throws when he had to.
53:30
Speaker 2: So I'm excited to really kind of see what we
53:34
Speaker 2: got here from Watson because this is another big game
53:37
Speaker 2: of they win this chat, they're in the driver's seat
53:41
Speaker 2: of winning this division and making the playoffs. And this
53:43
Speaker 2: is We've talked a nice about the Browns team. This
53:45
Speaker 2: is the year, like next year, the Watson contract kicks in,
53:49
Speaker 2: So this is really it for this Browns team. And
53:52
Speaker 2: you know great teams. In Week two, they kind of
53:55
Speaker 2: upset and shocked the world, and this would be one
53:57
Speaker 2: of those like this. I don't know if this sho
53:58
Speaker 2: was chocked the wall, but this would shock me Cleveland
54:00
Speaker 2: winning this game. So I got to take the number
54:03
Speaker 2: of minus two and a half. They just I feel
54:05
Speaker 2: like the summer should be three. The fact that it's
54:07
Speaker 2: up to two and a half is surprising, just the
54:09
Speaker 2: fact that you just said the money has been going
54:13
Speaker 2: on Pittsburgh, yet the line's been moving against them, so
54:16
Speaker 2: pretty talent. That number opened at one. Now it's up
54:19
Speaker 2: to minus two and a half for this Brown team.
54:22
Speaker 1: Samon, let me recap the games that we're looking at
54:26
Speaker 1: for our contest that we'll probably focus on on Thursday.
54:30
Speaker 1: Rams plus eight and a half, Kansas City minus three Buffalo.
54:35
Speaker 1: It's gonna move, but right now we like it at
54:37
Speaker 1: eight and a half. Atlanta the Pats plus two and
54:42
Speaker 1: a half, the Bears plus three, Sincy. We're hoping maybe
54:46
Speaker 1: it gets back down to three Giants minus five. Browns
54:51
Speaker 1: are interesting. Am I missing anybody? Titans? Can I sell
54:56
Speaker 1: you some Titans? Have we put on the list? You
54:58
Speaker 1: can put them in Titans plus three. Don't give me
55:02
Speaker 1: that that preemptive pity, So you've got something to rip
55:06
Speaker 1: me for when we put the Titans in in the either.
55:09
Speaker 2: I really don't think we're going to, but you never know.
55:11
Speaker 1: You never know, You don't know what the number is
55:13
Speaker 1: going to be. It's changing. It's dynamic, like this podcast,
55:17
Speaker 1: we are dynamic. Simon Hunter, my co host, you are
55:21
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