Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Thrived Amid Need For Human Connection

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1-800-FLOWERS.COM Thrived Amid Need For Human Connection · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from ceo, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts,
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. Alright, it is five days
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: and counting to Valentine's Day. Crunch time for gift givers.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Coming up, we have Chris McMahon. He is the president's
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: CEO of one eight hundred flowers dot com. That is
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: a NASTAC listed stock uh F l w S. I'm
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: looking at the stock up a hundred and twenty one
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: on a trailing twelve month basis, So up, the business
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: of selling flowers and gifts seems to be in good shape.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Let's check in with Chris. Chris, thanks so much for
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  Speaker 1: joining us here again five days and counting to Valentine's Day.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Talk to us about your business and Valentine's Day. How
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: big is that? So? Valentine's Day is a very important
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  Speaker 1: part about business, and I appreciate you asking and having
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  Speaker 1: me on the show. The time of year, it's uh,
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: it's actually our third busiest holiday because of our expansion
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: into the golome food category with brands like Harry and David,
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  Speaker 1: or most recent acquisition into personalized products with personalization mall
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: dot com, the Flower brand, which is all about Valentine's Day.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: This really makes you know. The other brands make the
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  Speaker 1: holiday season the busiest season for us, Mother's Day second,
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Valentine's third. But more importantly, this is so important for
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  Speaker 1: our customers and it's so important for them at this
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  Speaker 1: point in time to really reach out and express themselves
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: to each other. So what tell us what kinds of
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: flowers people tend to ask for? Is it all roses
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: around this time year? Oh? Funny, of course, it is
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: also about twenty two million stems this year of flowers,
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: fourteen million of those will be roses, not all the
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: roses of all different colors. But when you really want
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: to say I love you and really express yourself, nothing
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  Speaker 1: does it like roses, Just on that I need to
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  Speaker 1: know what I mean at all red flowers? And how
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: do you how do you tailor? You know, if you
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: think demand is going to be like mostly red flowers,
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: how do you tailor your orders? For that. We look
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: all the time. We're constantly doing data analytics to understand
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: what consumer trends are, what we sold last year, working
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: with our growers to make sure we have the supply.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: And besides red, which is a coarse staple, we're seeing
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: lots of pinks and pastel colored roses, so so it
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: runs the gamut and people looking for something yellow roses
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: are very comics. They really expressed friendship at this time
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: of year and the Valentine's Day. It's not always about love,
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: it's just recognizing the people who are important in our lives.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: Chris talked to us about your business and the pandemic.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: So many businesses we've seen I've been really really disrupted
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: and upbended. Um tell us about how the gift giving
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: business has kind of, you know, reacted to the world
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: we're living in now. Yes, Paul, I think you know,
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: as we look at how we reacted to the pandemic.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: When the first hit, no one knew what was exactly
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: what is going to happen, But we saw early on
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: from our customers that they recognized the need to maintain relationships,
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: to build reach out and connect to the import people
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  Speaker 1: in their lives. And as a company whose vision is
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: to inspire human expression, connection and celebration, we were so
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: well positioned for that. So while many businesses have been
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: really dramatically hampered by this pandemic, it's been a pivotabal
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: pivotal moment for our company as we've embraced and leaned
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: into the sentiments of the consumer to shift from offline
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: sales to online sales that were so well positioned for
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: the trend of nesting, where we see companies like Personalization
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Mall just doing really, really well. So for us, we
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: were accelerating our revenue for the past couple of years.
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  Speaker 1: It's accelerated more on now as we've gone into the pandemic,
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  Speaker 1: and we're just so honored that customers turned to us
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  Speaker 1: to help us help to help them express and connect
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  Speaker 1: with the important people in their lives. Sure, did your
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: growers have trouble getting enough people to pick their flowers?
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: There were there any kind of bottlenecks like that? I
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: think overall retail and supply chains, we've all had our challenges,
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  Speaker 1: but luckily we've been able to work together in partnership
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  Speaker 1: and really overcome those challenges, whether it's working with the
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  Speaker 1: growers here in the United States or in other parts
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  Speaker 1: of the world where some of our product comes from.
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  Speaker 1: So we've been able to do collaborative partnership. We've been
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  Speaker 1: able to overcome many of those challenges and not really
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  Speaker 1: be to be uh disrupted in the industry. So one
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  Speaker 1: eight flowers dot Com. That brand has been around uh forever, Chris.
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  Speaker 1: But you guys are also really diversified into simply chocolate,
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  Speaker 1: Sherry's berries, the popcorn factory. What's the next avenue of
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  Speaker 1: growth for your company? Well, again, I think well, as
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: we look to say what we're really about, people look
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  Speaker 1: at this as a gifting company. But what we're really
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  Speaker 1: about a company to help you express and connecting to celebrate.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: So our most recent acquisition that we did in the
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: midst of this pandemic, believe it or not, was a
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: large att acquisition ever personalization all uh, and that brought
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: us into a whole new product, Candor, because that's a
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  Speaker 1: trend we saw developing people looking to personalize everything with
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: being able to put their photographs on things, personalize the message, etcetera.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: So we will be continuing to grow into that category
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: and then just looking for why it else helps you
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  Speaker 1: to say something to someone who is important to you,
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  Speaker 1: whether it be something for free, whether it be something
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  Speaker 1: that costs five dollars like Cheryl's cookie cards, where you
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  Speaker 1: could send a personalized box with a single cookie, and
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  Speaker 1: it's just the same thinking of you. So our emission,
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: our vision is to just keep people connecting and find
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  Speaker 1: more and more ways to make that easy for them.
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  Speaker 1: So many things on the personalization mall that I have
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  Speaker 1: ideas for Chris, I'll be in touch, Thank you so much.
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  Speaker 1: That is Chris mcan And of course if you are
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: ordering flowers or something more personalized for any of your
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: loved ones, to call one eight hundred flowers before Valentine's Day.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: We have a Secretary of State now. Is name is
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Anthony Lincoln, and one of the first things that he
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: is doing is trying to end the war in Yemen.
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  Speaker 1: He says it's priority and that the humanitarian crisis is
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: no longer just palatable, which it hasn't been for a
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: long long time. So the U s planning to provoke
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: terrorist designations on Yemen, Yemen's hoodie rebels. Let's bring in
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: somebody who knows a lot more about this and about
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: what Biden's foreign policy is likely to look like more broadly.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: Ariel Cohen is senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: from a founding principle of international market analysis. Ariel, thank
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: you so much for joining. Obviously, Lincoln feels very strongly
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: about Yemen, which is great because it's been ignored for many, many,
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: many months. What happens here does he be? Is he
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: successful in trying to end Yemen's war? Or is this
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: the case of the U. S Getting involved where it
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: shouldn't um. The Yemen war is a humanitarian disaster. What
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: is important to remember is that Iran is projecting power
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: to Yemen UH and mobilizing, arming, training, equipping UH the
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: Houthi rebels. These are pretty um uh, pretty underdeveloped folks
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: UH in the Yemen who never ever had their own missiles.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: So now the Hoothies are shooting the Iranian missiles into
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia. And whether you like them or don't like them,
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of things we dislike about Saudi There
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: our allies, and they have been our allicense. When President
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: Roosevelt and the founding King of Saudi Arabia, Um Belazi
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: abdelaziz Um agreed on a strategic partnership. So to just
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: um say we're going to stop the war in Yemen
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: is great, but you need a commitment from the Hoosies
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: to stop firing missiles, add the Saudis to stop attacking
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: their um oil fields. And for the from the Iranians
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  Speaker 1: who supposedly want to join rejoin the Nuclear Agreement j
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: c p o A with the United States and the
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: others to commit to pull out of Yemen and stop
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: supporting the Hooties. If these elements are in uh, kudos
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: to the State Department, to Tony B. Lincoln, to President
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Biden for resolving a bloody and horrible conflict in the Yemen.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: All right, Ariel, let's broaden the foreign policy out a
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: little bit here under the Biden administration. Um, here the
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: Biden administration and the President said he wants to re
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: engage in global diplomacy after four years of Presidents Trump's
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: America First Agenda. How do you believe America's will be
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: embraced by the world once again as a leading voice
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: in global diplomacy or does it have to work to
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: get a trust back. Well, first of all, we should
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: remember that Trump came as a symptom of the fatigue.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: A lot of folks in this country have with long
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: wars commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan that we're going on
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: for twenty years. Families law their dear ones. It cost
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: us probably trillion dollars to be engaged there. So there
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: was a reaction. It didn't happen in an empty space
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: just because Donald Trump had very poor, poorly thoughts through
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: ideas about the world, which he did. He did. He's
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: a nationalist, he's an isolationist. Doesn't work like that. In
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: the twenty one century, however, the rise of China and UH,
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: the wariness of our European allies to work with us,
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: standing up to putin in Russia, standing up to seize
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: and pin in China. You see what the Europeans just
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: did just before Biden was inaugurated. UH they signed a
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: huge UH investment in trade agreement with Europe and the
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Chinese Rush and signed a similar agreement in Asia. So
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: this is not Barack Obama's world. This is not the
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: world where President than Vice President Biden was hugged by everybody.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: We have more challenges, bigger challenges, and we need to have,
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: among other things, money UH to confront the rising China
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: and other things. And instead what I see is um
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: a commitment, almost an hysterical commitment to spend more and
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: more money on things that are not directly applicable to
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: this conflict with China and to boosting American engagements and
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: presents around the world. Money is fungible if we spend
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: all this money on let's sake, the COVID package for
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: the environmental policies, which are necessary as well. Clearly they're necessary.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: But we need to keep the whole picture um in
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: mind and see the huge challenges in front of us
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: in terms of international engagement, in terms of how we
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: bring back the allies in Asia, India, Japan, the Philippines,
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: and in Europe. Yes, we only have a minute left.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: How will Biden approach China? Relations are not good between
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: the US and China right now. Well, this is a
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: part of a huge systemic challenge to the United States.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Chinese arising power. China thinks that they're going to become
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: the greatest economic power on the planet in this decade
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: before and uh spin the Chinese leader is more authoritarian,
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: more dictatorial than anybody since Mouth Setong, and he compares
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: himself to Mao. He wants to bring Taiwan back by hope,
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: by group, either politically or militarily. This is a huge
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: challenge for president by Dr Ariel Collen, thank you so
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: much for joining us. Dr Errol Cohen, he's a senior
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: Fellow at the Atlantic Council, also founding Principle of International
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Market Analysis based in Washington, D E. C. Let's get
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: to our next guest, who is Austin Carr. He has
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: written a great story about Apple being the two point
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: three trillion dollar fortress that Tim Cooke built. We know
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: that we have a meeting of business leaders with Joe
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: Biden today. One of them won't be Tim Coke, not
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: this time around, but he did have a meeting with
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden back in twelve and that's where Austin's story
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: starts out. So Austin, tell us what the sort of
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: the the drift of your story is. If you're like,
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: what is it about Cooke and Apple that administrations really
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: want to talk to? Yeah, I mean one of the
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: things that we wanted to focus on with this story,
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: which was Tim Cook's diplomacy skills. Um. So much attention
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: when it comes to Apple is often centered on their
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: products and their design approach. But one of the things
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: that him has been incredibly uh depth dad is deflecting
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: political pressure. UM. The opening scene, as you just mentioned,
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: of the story, is actually a look back at dinner
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: between Joe Biden when he was Vice president and Tim
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: Cook when he was really pressuring Apple to make the
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: iPhone in the US, UM, which for a lot of
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: folks might just out a little bit like deja vu,
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: because he went through that with four years during the
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: Obama administration or eight years I should say, another four
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: years with the Trump administration, and just recently Biden has
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: been talking yet again about trying to move US manufacturing
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: back to the US and what administration seemed to be
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: in love with the Apple uh with Apple about and
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: and Tim more specifically, it's just the Apple brand. Um.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: They see it as an engine of American innovation, job creator,
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: and they want to attach themselves to that. And that's
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: one of the things that we sort of dove into
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: during the the the Obama era as well as a
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: Trump era. Just how Tim Cook navigated that, leaned on
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: and his sort of diplomacy skills as well as trading
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: optics to get his way when it came to navigating Washington,
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: d C. So it's it's interesting. I mean, Tim Cook,
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: I'm just looking at the you know, the chart, the
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: ten year charts since you know, the end of the
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: fiscal UH financial crisis two thousand nine two stocks just
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: been extraordinary in terms of returns and out performing the
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: market here, Tim Cook, I mean, he's navigated so many
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: land mines you mentioned, you know a number of them.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: But one of the big issues is the regulatory risk here.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: What's the concern here within the company UM about regulatory
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: risk from the United States? Is that a potential big
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: risk for this company? I mean, I think definitely so.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you look at the October House UH
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: Anti Trust Subcommittee, you know they cited Apple, along with Facebook, Amazon,
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: and Google as having monopoly power and regulating regulars UH
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: step in when it comes to their up store, UM
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: just because of the dominance of the platform on when
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: it comes to mobile software and the sort of control
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: it has over software makers. UM. At the same time,
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: if you sort of zoom out, I would say Apple
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: has been less scrutinized versus the other companies out there,
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: like Google and Facebook, especially if you saw her the
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: testimony UM some months back, a lot of the ire
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: from from Congress was focused on Mark Zuckerberg or Sin
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: Darpachai rather than Tim Cook. And I think one of
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: that reasons is just the narrative he's able to build. UM.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: He's been very public and very vocal and sort of
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: not being on the defensive but actually attacking UM. He's
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: most recently been counterpunching and saying, uh, you know, just
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: that just in in recent weeks that uh, you know,
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: the government should be focused on reforming social media companies
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: because of their data exploitation, that that's a larger issue
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: than perhaps Apple might be with its app store. UM.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: And they're very just clever again about deflecting those politics
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: and winning that public messaging war a sent really using
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: the Apple marketing that's so famous, but for political issues
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: exactly deflecting well. Once I mean, obviously the social media
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: companies are in for a few months of toughness, I
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: would imagine both here and in Europe. But once that's
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: over and sort of the way, we'll be free for
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: regulators here and in Europe to to go after Apple
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: in a big way on everything from taxes to app
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: store to how it treats its customers and competition and
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: so on, What are the most vulnerable in well, I mean,
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: I think that remains to be seen, just because you know,
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: especially in the US, we haven't really gotten a clearer
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: picture of how much the Biden administration is going to
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: press this issue. He's spoken most vocally about Section two thirty,
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: which is an issue that would affect Facebook and Google
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: more than it did Apple. But if you look at
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: the Trump era for just lessons, um, I mean, just
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: just consider how how uniquely vulnerable Apple was during that
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: time frame, considering how reliant its supply chain was on
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: China and how much Trump administration was going after UH
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: that dynamic through trade war pressure, tariff threats, UH and
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: so forth that some analysts really thought would blow up
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: the company's supply chain and really forced them to have
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: to find new geographies to manufacture things, which it could
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: not have done overnight, especially amid the COVID nineteen pandemic.
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: Um Yet Apple did better than ever. I mean, this
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: market cap sor to just past two trillion dollars, and
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: that's just a testament to both the operational skill as
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: well as the political maneuvering. Again that Tim Cook did
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: personally with Trump, who was, according to officials, you know,
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: constantly meeting in Washington with Trump. Was willing to do
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: these big events with him, whether that CEO Summer's summits,
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: dinners at the White House, or visits to a factory
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: in Texas, which was sort of an infamous scene in
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: the story. Um to really just avoid the harshest penalties
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: of what could have been a disastrous four years under Trump. Austin,
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: thank you so much for this. This story just a
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: fascinating story. Austin Carr, Bloomberg Technology reporter. His story Bloomberg
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: Business Week Magazine. Apple is a two point three trillion
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: dollar fourtress that Tim Cook built. It is time for
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion today. We're joined by Timothy O'Brien, senior calumnists
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Opinion, coming to us from the foodie capital
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: of Montclair, New Jersey. Tim, we've got the impeachment trial
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: kicking off today. By all accounts, a conviction is highly unlikely.
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: What would constitute a win or a good showing on
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: the part of the Democrats. Well, I think I think
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: there's still a lot that voters and citizens don't know
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: about what occurred on January expects in terms of who
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: planned the event prior to it occurring, who coordinated what
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: occurred there, did the White House know? How much? Did
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: Trump know? What it? What? It is a campaign? No, Uh,
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: it would be a useful exercise if this trial got
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: at that, because it's vitally important for the law and
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: I think the historical record. But political concerns are driving
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: this one, obviously, and I don't know. You know, there's
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: a lot of debate on that very issue within the
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: Democratic Party itself. There's some folks pushing for a speedy
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: trial and there's others asking for a more deliberative process
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: that airs everything. Um. I think the White House seems
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: to prefer a speedy trial as well. But again, these
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: are political issues that are driving that debate, not not
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: the legal values. I think for sure, Tim, if there
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: are no witnesses allowed, how would we find out some
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: details of the type that you just annunciated. I don't know,
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: I frankly don't know. I don't know why witnesses aren't
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: being subpoena and uh required to testifying her oath, including
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: uh Donald Trump. I don't know why there isn't a
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: more aggressive effort to collect that kind of evidence I
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: should say, I do know, but I think it's it
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: amounts to a travesty that I think historically people will
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: look back on this and see it as as Democrats
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: once again caving to more savvy and street smart Republicans
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: who know how to muscle procedure alogue um at the
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: expense I think of better outcomes. Tim, What role, if any,
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: is the White House playing in this process? Well, well,
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: certainly Biden has sat back and has not had any
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: comments about it. But but behind the scenes, UM, there
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: certainly has been a lot of indications that the White
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: House would prefer that that the trial is expeditious and
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: that it doesn't uh gum up the machinery. And I
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: think their concerns are it could derail Biden's ability to
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: get um more COVID nineteen legislation passed. It would your
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: his ability to form his cabinet. Um. It's not clear
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: to me that that's actually the case, but there's a
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: there's a concern about that in the White House. Will
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: Trump's defense be able to, you know, put forward a
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: case that will will defeat the case of all of
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: the managers. So there's what two four, six, eight nine,
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: managers from Jamie Roskin to Madeline Dean, and surely they'll have,
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: you know, a good case. Will will the defense be
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: able to to knock that case down? Well, I think,
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: you know, an acquittal is pretty baked in here now, Vanni.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: The Democrats would need sixty seven votes finding Trump guilty,
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: and I don't think there's any possibility they're going to
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: get there. It looks now like UM Republicans are going
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: to you know, march and lockstep on this one. So unfortunately,
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: it looks like whether or not Trump's defense mounts a
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: good case, maybe it irrelevant to the outcome, But in
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: terms of their raw argument, uh, it is. It is
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: a pretty ridiculous one. It's it's founded on two things.
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: That a president can't be impeached and I'm sorry, a
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: former president can't be impeached, even though Trump was president
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: at the time he was impeached. But which makes that
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: claim I think irrelevant, And that Trump was merely exercising
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: his free speech rights when he uh told marchers in
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: Washington and he would lead them down Pennsylvania Avenue and
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: they needed to fight to make sure their country wasn't
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: taken away from them. UM. Free spool. We all are
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: protected by free speech, but no one's allowed to go
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: to a movie theater and screened fire. So I think
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: on legal grounds, both of those issues aren't very strong,
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: but they had to say something because Trump is getting tried. Tim,
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: do we know for a fact that no witnesses will
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: be called? You know, we won't know, Paul, that's a
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: great question. It appears that that's not going to be
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: the hat. But but uh, the procedures around this has
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: been very murky up until the very moment that we're
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: speaking right now. We may see when this launches this
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: afternoon that they will begin calling witnesses. Um. You know,
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: Lindsey Graham was on Fox saying that if the Democrats
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: call witnesses, he's going to make sure that the Republicans
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: call lots of witnesses to I think the threat there
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: is that he would try that That would then amount
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: to slowing the whole thing down. Um, But all indications
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: are that witnesses aren't going to be called. We know
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: that there's going to be a sort of a four
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: hour initial proceeding on the constitutionality of the whole thing,
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: and then sort of sixteen hours for both sides to
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: present cases and so on. Will this be wrapped up
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: extraordinarily faster? You think, Tim will? We will. We know
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: most of what we're going to find out by Friday.
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: Even that's possible, I think it really depends on how
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: it it moves procedurally van in it it could be
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: wrapped up in a few days. I think it'll be
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: unfortunate if that's the case from a legal standpoint. But
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: again again, I think some of the political realities around
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: there mean that may happen. So Tim, outside of these
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: impeachment process You've been found the president Trump for for decades. Here,
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: what is this greatest legal risk outside of these impeachment processes? Um,
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: you know there's a there's a there are at tax
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: and financial fraud investigations of foot in the state of
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: New York. One is with the New York State Attorney General.
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: That's a civil case. I think the more threatening case
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: to him is with the Manhattan District Attorney, which is
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: a criminal case, and it would bring criminal charges and
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: penalties if if it if it goes all the way
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: to the finish line, and that involves again possible tax fraud,
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: accounting fraud, financial fraud, campaign finance fraud, and I think
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: that's very fun of mine. For Trump, I think it's
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: one of the reasons. I think the legal perils that
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: were faking him was a very significant reason and for
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: him steering losing the installation of the of the Oble
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: Office when he lost the election. Yeah, it's fascinating, is
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: vinyal question? Tim? What about the rest of his family?
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: Are they once this is over, open to some kind
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: of action as well? Well? The um the children are
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: all part of the business and they're involved in those
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: they're there. It's likely they may be swept in in
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: into some of the problems their father faces in New York.
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: The consequences may not be as graves, but they're they're
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: on that same rate our screen. And of course one
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: final thing, Tim, we don't know if there were pocket parsons,
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: do we We do not know that. That's a good question,
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: but we do not know that. Well, we shall find out.
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: It all comes to the surface eventually. Tim O'Brien, thank
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: you so much for joining Tim. Of course always with
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: some wonderful columns on Bloomberg opinion and things that you
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: may not have thought of, and something's examined that you
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: did think of. And a full gamut. Tim O'Brien there
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Opinion. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast.
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: or whatever a podcast platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn,
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn. And Paul Sweeney I'm
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio