Latest / Upper Hand Fantasy / 2026 Week 1 Start/Sit: 16 Players on the Edge of Your Lineup

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2026 Week 1 Start/Sit: 16 Players on the Edge of Your Lineup · Upper Hand Fantasy

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: Week one is honestly a really tough week of the year to set a lineup because you got no in-season tape.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_00: You have no idea who's actually getting the volume.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: Every takeaway from preseason could be basically noise.
• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: So today I'm going to break down my starts, my desperate starts, the guys who you got a temper expectations on, and my sits for week one.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm not talking about obvious studs here.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_00: These are going to be the fringe guys, uh, the ones sitting on the edge of your lineup where you're genuinely torn, right?
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: Whether that's because of a rough matchup or because you've got other options that you're not sure, you know, who wins that spot.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: It could be your, you know, wide receiver two, three spot, your flex, your running back spot.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: But I'm not just gonna go off of my gut on any of this.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_00: Every single one of these is backed by coverage tendencies, defensive coordinator trends carrying over from last year, route running splits against the exact look each guy is gonna see this week.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_00: So I've got some picks in here that might surprise you.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: One receiver going up against a rookie corner in his first NFL game that I actually love this week, a running back that most of you might have written off a little bit, who I think still has a chance of real volume coming his way this week.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: All right, let's get right into it, man.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: The first one is kind of obvious.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, let's talk about Luther Burton real quick because it's all adding up for him this week.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_00: You probably were starting him anyway, if you're aware that he's completely back from his injury, but we have to talk about how good things are lining up for him this week.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: Romo Dunze isn't 100%, but schematically, the matchup is playing right into Burton's hands, regardless.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: First off, the Bears have the seventh highest in ply total for the week.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: Second, Vegas has this as a close game, which increases the chance of a back and forth here.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: And Carolina played the third highest rate of zone last year and the sixth highest rate of single high coverage.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: Why does that matter?
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: Carolina is the same defensive coordinator as last season, and Burden ranked fifth among all receivers last year in fantasy points per route against zone coverage and single high coverage.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: So he has to be in lineups this week.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the next guy is someone you know I wasn't high on coming into this season, but I gotta start him this week, and that's Bucky Irving.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: Sean Tucker's banged up as of this recording.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_00: He wasn't back in practice, and if he's banged up and, you know, not 100% or simply misses this game, there's a pretty good chance that Bucky gets the goal line work over Kenny Gainwell.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: Now, is it possible Gainwell gets used there?
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: Of course.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: It seems like you know, he's more of this receiving type role right now.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: But since he did allow the seventh most receptions and the fourth most receiving yards to running backs last year, so Gainwell is in play as like a desperate flex in a deeper lead this week.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: This is gonna help Bucky as well running routes on early downs.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_00: But the Bengals also allowed 5.2 yards per carry to running backs last year.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_00: That was second most in the NFL, and they allowed the most fantasy points to the running back position.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: Same defensive coordinator for the Bengals, by the way.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: So with a healthy Baker, the offense should and will have to move the ball to catch up with the Bengals offense.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: So you got to start him.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: All right, we're gonna go David Montgomery next up here.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_00: The Bills defense has a new defensive system with Jim Leonard as their new coordinator, but he's gonna be responsible for a serious turnaround here, given how bad the Bills were against the run last year.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_00: They allowed almost five yards per carry to running backs, third most in the NFL, 18 rushing touchdowns, which was the most.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: And given Monty is more of an early down guy, Buffalo also allowed the second most fantasy points from the run game alone.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_00: The Texas defense is obviously gonna keep Monty in this game.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: Vegas has this game super close at a one and a half point spread.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm expecting a good amount of volume for him in this one.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: You gotta start him.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: All right, next up is DeAndre Swift.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: Kamananga is back to practicing, you know, after being out for a while.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: He was out with a knee injury and he might play in this one, but I'd expect Swift to be the primary guy in all aspects, especially in week one.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: I mentioned the Bears have the seventh highest implied team total this week.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: And while the Panthers did improve things, you know, with Devin Lloyd and Jalen Phillips, they are running the same system as last year.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: Swift should still be able to get it done, especially on those inside runs, where he averaged the most yards per carry of any running back last year.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_00: And the Panthers, they've allowed the third most yards per carry on those same inside runs.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: So he's a nice high floor play with a pretty good ceiling, especially if Manongai doesn't get his usual 40% of snaps.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: Next up is Jalen Waddle.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_00: Now you might think, like, dude, like, what are you talking about?
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: Like, of course I'm starting Jalen Waddle.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I totally understand that.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_00: But some people might be overthinking this one because of the matchup.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: And you shouldn't, okay?
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_00: You got to start Jalen Waddle.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: He's gonna get some reps against Chiefs rookie, Monsour Delane.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: And while he has a ton of promise, this is still his first NFL game, right?
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: Waddle, he averaged a 28% target rate against man coverage last year, and the Chiefs run that at a top 10 rate in the league last year.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_00: Plus, Waddle has torn up to high safety coverage last year.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: He averaged the 11th most fantasy points per route run against it.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: And Steve Spagnolo, the Chiefs' defensive coordinator, ran it at the fourth highest rate in the league last season.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_00: At first glance, this is a tough matchup on paper.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_00: You know, anytime you have a wide receiver going up against the Chiefs, but Waddle's debut, I think, can be a productive one.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: All right, next up here is Jamison Williams.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_00: Now, with him, it always comes down to picking your spots, right?
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_00: Most of the time, you're not gonna do a good job picking it, right?
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_00: He was super boom bust last year, and he still had three top five finishes, six top 12 finishes in the last nine weeks of the season after his bye.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: Now, the Saints were relatively good defending wide receivers for fantasy last year.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: Brandon Staley does play a lot of single high coverage, the second most in the league last year.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_00: But Jamison Williams was way better against single high than two high.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_00: In fact, 2.34 yards per route run that was the same as Amara St.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: Brown against single high coverage.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: So he, by the way, like if you compare Jamison Williams from single high to two high, he averages 40% more fantasy points per route run against single high than he does too high.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: So schematically, this is a good matchup for Williams.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: Lions also have one of the highest implied totals of the week, by the way, only behind the Bengals.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: All right, next up is Jaden Reed, somebody you might not have been even considering starting this week.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_00: Now, let me tell you this.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, Brian Flores' defense was one of the best in the league, actually, the best in the league against receivers when it comes to giving up fantasy points last year.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: But when he dials up the blitz, Jordan Love is going to need to find an outlet, a safety valve, right?
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_00: And that's where Reed can shine this week.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: The slot is the most vulnerable spot for the Vikings compared to the perimeter.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: And Reed ranked 15th in fantasy points per route run from the slot last year on limited snaps.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_00: And we know that he has a talent.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_00: And here's the best part we just heard head coach Matt LaFleur say that Green Bay's three main receivers, Watson Golden and Reed, they're gonna be on the field as much as possible.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: And that just confirms a lot of the other tea leaves around these guys being more pass heavy and also running way more three wide receiver sets, which means that Reed is gonna be on the field way more.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_00: And that's been his issue, right?
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: Without Josh Jacobs, now the Packers are gonna be throwing it more, and Reed was one of the best beaters of two high safety coverage, which Minnesota runs at the highest rate in the league.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: So he's a serious upside flex play this week.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_00: Let's talk about DK Metcalf real quick, man.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: If there's gonna be any week he out-targets Michael Pittman, or maybe I should say outperforms Michael Pittman, it could be this one.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, so I'm gonna label him as a desperate start.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_00: The Falcons ran single high coverage at the fourth highest rate last year, and Metcalf averaged the 13th most fantasy points per route run against that coverage last year.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_00: And against too high, he was simply not doing much last year.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_00: 2.38 yards per route run against single high, 28 target rate against single high.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_00: So same quarterback, right?
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_00: Different system, obviously, but one that could depend more on the pass with Mike McCarthy taking over the offense, right?
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_00: So he's a little bit of a desperate start for me this week if you need it.
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_00: Jalen McMillan is another desperate start for me this week, a little bit deeper, but it looks like both he and Meka Ibuka will be good to go for this week.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_00: But is Ibuka really a hundred percent?
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_00: So with a you got the toe injury, you kind of don't know.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_00: But either way, McMillan low-key averaged 24 target rate and a whopping 2.88 yards per route run against single high coverage last year.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: That was 10th among qualifying wide receivers, and the Bengals ran single high last year at the fifth highest rate.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_00: Same defensive coordinator, by the way.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_00: So DJ Turner probably lining up against a Buka most of the time.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_00: So McMillan could see some extra looks go his way.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_00: Baker Mayfield's healthy again.
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_00: He's gonna have to throw it a ton to keep, you know, to keep up with the Bengals and Joe Burrow.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_00: So he's a desperate start.
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_00: All right, I'm gonna get into a few guys who I'm tempering my expectations on, and we gotta start with Christian Watson.
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_00: A bit of a tough matchup for Watson this week.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, loved him in the draft.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_00: I have him on a lot of teams, but I'm lowering my expectations this week because of Brian Flores' defense and what they tend to do against perimeter wide receivers, which is basically shut them down, right?
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_00: Watson has had some good games against the Vikings and some bad.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm still starting him, you know, as a high-end wide receiver three this week because he did show some signs against two high safety coverage last year, and he wasn't just that single high safety demon he was prior to last year.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_00: Now that he's playing the flanker role, we could see even more short to intermediate routes for him, which would be great.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_00: Just not the best matchup in the world this week.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_00: Another guy I'm temporary in my expectations on this week is Terry McLaurin.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, a bit of a tough matchup this week against the Eagles corners.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_00: Like I'm sure he's gonna get plenty of Quinyon Mitchell, and when he's not, you know, plenty of Rick Wollen, right?
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_00: So pick your poison there.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_00: I think you still have to keep him in your lineup unless you have a great option otherwise, but you have to lower expectations on him this week, especially with the commanders running this new brand, you know, this new offense um from a first-time play caller, right?
• 9:09
  SPEAKER_00: And the next guy you're gonna temper expectations on, unfortunately, has to be Marshawn Lloyd, especially, you know, against the Minnesota Vikings.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_00: You know, a lot of people are asking, what do I do with Marshawn Lloyd this week?
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, you know Josh Jacobs, and then plenty of people are a bit worried about a timeshare.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: And I do agree that Lloyd is not gonna get all the work.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_00: This was never gonna happen.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think he's gonna go from someone who couldn't stay on the field to just walking into a workhorse role, right?
• 9:31
  SPEAKER_00: However, I do think, assuming all the well-documented work he's done this offseason to prepare his body for the season, there's less of a chance of it happening.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_00: I do think he's gonna be getting the money touches, right?
• 9:41
  SPEAKER_00: Primarily on early downs.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, I think he's gonna be running the most routes of any of these running backs in the backfield.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_00: He's I think he's gonna get the goal line looks too once they get there.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_00: I think 15 touches or so is still very much in the range here, and a good portion of that coming in the receiving game.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_00: However, the matchup is rough against the Vikings.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_00: So while he could be in your flex, I'm not sure there'll be much upside for Lloyd this particular week.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_00: So we have to temper expectations here.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_00: A running back who, you know, is a little bit higher in rankings who I'm tempering expectations on is Quinchon Junkins.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_00: You know, he gets the volume, he gets the job done when the Browns have a favorable game script.
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_00: But when does that happen, right?
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: Like this week against the Jaguars, eight and a half point underdogs, like uh not the spot I love, you know.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_00: On top of that, Jacksonville is really good against the run.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_00: They allowed only 3.86 yards per carry last year.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_00: That was third best in the NFL.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_00: Junkins primarily being a factor in the run game, only 9.6 rushing fantasy points per game allowed by the Jags.
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_00: That was second lowest in the NFL last year.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: So you have to temper expectations or find another option.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_00: And a few guys I'm sitting, man.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_00: I don't want to sit them.
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_00: I really don't.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_00: But Brian Thomas Jr., I have to sit you.
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_00: I just don't love his setup this week.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: Keep an eye on Jacoby Myers' status, you know, with his hand injury.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_00: If he doesn't go, there will be more targets available.
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_00: But as of now, going up against Denzel Ward, not great.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_00: I think BTJ is gonna line up as the X receiver on most of his routes.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_00: Ward will likely be locked in on him, and the targets will likely spread outside of him, just like they did last year.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_00: I gotta talk about Aaron Jones, man.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_00: Aaron Jones, to me, I can't have him in my lineup, man.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_00: I just can't.
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_00: The backfield is gonna be a little bit murky, right?
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's the problem.
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_00: It's more likely that the Vikings lean more on Jordan Mason than they do on Aaron Jones based on all the reports that we've been hearing out of camp.
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_00: If you were thinking about starting him against his former team, I totally understand.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_00: But I would rather first really get what his role is gonna be before we just assume it, right?
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_00: I'd rather assume that Mason's gonna get the work.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't want to assume that Jones is gonna get the 15 touches alongside Mason.
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_00: So if I'm starting anyone in that backfield is Jordan Mason in this new zone rushing scheme that really benefits him more.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_00: And then finally, someone that I like this offseason, man, Jonathan Brooks.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_00: He just doesn't seem to be 100%.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_00: He has a groin injury, apparently.
• 11:55
  SPEAKER_00: He says he's 100%, but he hasn't practiced in a little bit, and who knows where he's at in this game.
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_00: I, you know, he's missed some time lately.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_00: Even if he suits up this week, I think Chuba Harbor's gonna lead the way, at least to start.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see how this backfield morphs as the season goes on.
• 12:09
  SPEAKER_00: But Chuba could end up getting a big workload while Brooks gets a little healthier.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe week two, we start to see more out of him.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_00: Anyway, I appreciate you guys.
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for watching.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_00: This is a little bit of a new format for us.
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna keep experimenting as we go, but I appreciate you guys.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks so much.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_00: Good luck, week one, baby.
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_00: Let's go, let's go.
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_00: Peace.