Latest / Toadstool Sports / Monday BEST BETS | Buffalo and LA Day | NHL & MLB ALCS/NLCS & NFL | 10/12/26

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Monday BEST BETS | Buffalo and LA Day | NHL & MLB ALCS/NLCS & NFL | 10/12/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: in your chest. Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: your head. Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: made you this man But don't you go quiet, don't
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor Your name still means something
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: Look at me now Hold on Hold on, not tonight,
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: out That fella fights hard But it don't get the.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me.
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: Now What's up, everybody?
• 1:28
  Speaker 4: It's Toad back with you with Toadstool Sports for Monday,
• 1:33
  Speaker 4: October 12th. 3-0 on the show yesterday. All three NFL
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: plays hit. Obviously, I'm happy about that.
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: I think we're on an 8-1 run here. Over the
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: last four days, I thought it was five.
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: Maybe it's four. Maybe I miscounted the days. I hope
• 1:50
  Speaker 4: I'm keeping this tracker correctly up to date.
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: I think I am.
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: But, you know, even if it's slightly off, it's close enough.
• 1:59
  Speaker 4: That's what we're doing here. We got the win with
• 2:01
  Speaker 4: the Jets. It was an ugly, low-scoring game, though. Maybe
• 2:05
  Speaker 4: we should have gone money line on that because they
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: were winning by one multiple times during the game. I
• 2:09
  Speaker 4: don't know if they– did they fall behind? Maybe they
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: did at one point. But they were able to come
• 2:14
  Speaker 4: back and win. I think if they were down at all,
• 2:17
  Speaker 4: they were only down by like two points or whatever.
• 2:19
  Speaker 4: But I believe they scored a touchdown to get the
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: lead back and then won with that.
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: But they were winning the majority of the game.
• 2:27
  Speaker 4: Just they had a one-point lead multiple times, I think,
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: from what I saw.
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: So maybe the money line would have been better. But
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: they still wound up covering.
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: In the NFL, the winner is likely to cover, especially
• 2:39
  Speaker 4: with a low number like that. Pittsburgh got us the
• 2:42
  Speaker 4: win as well. I don't know why I'm showing all
• 2:44
  Speaker 4: these banners, but Pittsburgh got us the win as well.
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: That one may be a little bit easier, although they
• 2:50
  Speaker 4: were also winning by one somewhere around the midpoint of
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: the game, but they were able to pull away with
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: it later in the game. I haven't looked at the
• 2:56
  Speaker 4: box scores yet to see if there was anything misleading
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: about those two. And then people might say I got
• 3:02
  Speaker 4: lucky with the Baltimore plus three and a half, but
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: I don't really think so. I mean, it, It took
• 3:09
  Speaker 4: a late drive to tie the game to do it,
• 3:12
  Speaker 4: but the game was close statistically. I don't think Baltimore
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: shouldn't have covered that game. They were pretty much covering
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: that game wire to wire, even though they were losing
• 3:23
  Speaker 4: by five at one point, losing by two, whatever.
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: But it was a low-scoring, ugly game.
• 3:28
  Speaker 4: Baltimore was right in that game the whole time until
• 3:31
  Speaker 4: they gave up back-to-back field goals late, and then all
• 3:33
  Speaker 4: of a sudden they were down eight. And, you know,
• 3:35
  Speaker 4: they had enough time left, so I'm thinking, okay, man,
• 3:37
  Speaker 4: let's go. Tyler Huntley, here's your chance, man. You can
• 3:41
  Speaker 4: lead a game-tying drive here, and he did exactly that.
• 3:45
  Speaker 4: Although part of me was just like, missed the two-point conversion,
• 3:49
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean? Just get us the cover
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: and get out of here. Don't let this go into overtime, right?
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: Because overtime's a whole different deal, right? And if you
• 3:58
  Speaker 4: win the coin flip, you're good in overtime if you're
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: the underdog because you get the ball first.
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: There's almost no way you're not going to cover overtime.
• 4:04
  Speaker 4: But if the Falcons won the coin toss at overtime,
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: they're incentivized to get a touchdown with the way overtime
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: works now because each team gets a chance to do
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: their best, basically. So that would be bad, obviously. I
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: hate how that could happen in overtime. I don't know
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: if they should change to college overtime rules. I do
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: kind of like the college overtime rules, but it does
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: take away the special teams part.
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: Of it and field position part of it and whatever.
• 4:30
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: I don't know what the fix would be really.
• 4:32
  Speaker 4: I mean, this is better than just letting, you know,
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: the sudden death happen, which basically the first team that
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: gets the ball is like almost guaranteed to score in
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: today's NFL.
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: So that was stupid too.
• 4:44
  Speaker 4: But if the Falcons had gotten the coin toss, right,
• 4:47
  Speaker 4: then they'd be incentivized to get a touchdown. They might
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: score a touchdown. Then if Baltimore doesn't match that, that's it,
• 4:54
  Speaker 4: the game's over, and we're going to wind up losing
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: the play anyway. That would really suck as a three-and-a-half-point
• 4:59
  Speaker 4: dog that was in that game pretty much the whole time.
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: But luckily, once Baltimore won the coin toss, I'm like, yeah,
• 5:06
  Speaker 4: we just won.
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: We got this.
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: It came down to a coin toss, almost. But Baltimore
• 5:11
  Speaker 4: was then able to put together another touchdown drive. Tyler Huntley,
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: back-to-back clutch touchdown drives.
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: I told you there's not.
• 5:18
  Speaker 4: That much of a downgrade from Lamar Jackson to him.
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: He's not that bad.
• 5:23
  Speaker 4: Derek Henry was able to get involved to enough of
• 5:26
  Speaker 4: an extent in the game. Not for my fantasy team
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: to win.
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: We took our first.
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: Loss in fantasy because, I don't know, man, I just
• 5:32
  Speaker 4: had guys on the bench outplaying the guys that I
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: had in my lineup. It just didn't go well, and
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: my opponents scored a lot of points, too, so... it
• 5:40
  Speaker 4: did not go well. I don't know what else I
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: can say about that. Although Henry was good enough for me,
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: but I mean, not good enough to win, but if my,
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: if the rest of my team lived up to what
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: they were supposed to do, then Henry would have been
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: good enough, but whatever. What I meant is that Henry
• 5:57
  Speaker 4: played well enough in the game against a good Atlanta
• 6:00
  Speaker 4: run defense. Their run defense is good, but Henry was
• 6:03
  Speaker 4: able to Still doing off in that game. And then
• 6:05
  Speaker 4: the reason why I said people are going to call
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: me lucky on that one is because Michael Penix got
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: hurt near the end of the game. I think late
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: in the fourth quarter, Penix got hurt, and they had
• 6:14
  Speaker 4: to bring in Tua. And Tua is not good.
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: We know this.
• 6:18
  Speaker 4: Penix is definitely better than Tua. I still think Baltimore
• 6:21
  Speaker 4: is the right side anyway, though. I know Tua, once
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: Atlanta got the ball back, they were down seven at
• 6:27
  Speaker 4: that point. But like I said, once Baltimore won the
• 6:28
  Speaker 4: coin toss, That's pretty much game over right there as
• 6:31
  Speaker 4: far as who's going to cover.
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean?
• 6:34
  Speaker 4: Maybe Baltimore's not going to win the game, but they
• 6:36
  Speaker 4: will cover.
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: Because even if Baltimore gets held to a.
• 6:39
  Speaker 4: Field goal or whatever, and Atlanta could match that by
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: scoring a touchdown, I'm pretty sure you don't kick the
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: extra point. So Atlanta would win by three in that case.
• 6:49
  Speaker 4: And then in the other scenarios, Baltimore just turns the
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: ball over, doesn't.
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: Score at all or whatever. Then all Atlanta has to
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: do is get a field goal.
• 6:57
  Speaker 4: So... In both scenarios, Atlanta wins by three at the worst. So,
• 7:02
  Speaker 4: you know, if you have the three and a half,
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: you're going to win at that point. But, yeah, Tua
• 7:06
  Speaker 4: was in after Penix got hurt. Tua threw an ugly
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: interception to end the game after Baltimore scored in overtime. Atlanta,
• 7:13
  Speaker 4: I think on, like, the second play, Tua threw a pick. Yeah, man,
• 7:17
  Speaker 4: I mean, we know Tua's not good, okay? But I
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: still think Baltimore's the right side anyway in that game regardless. Anyway,
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: let's get through today's card here, man. It's hockey, baseball, NFL.
• 7:29
  Speaker 4: I think there are six total games here. We have
• 7:32
  Speaker 4: an afternoon hockey game, Florida at Buffalo.
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: Florida is not.
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: Even really a huge underdog here, if even an underdog
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: at all. So the odds makers are again telling you
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: something here. They're pretty much telling you Florida is the
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: better team here, even though last year... If last year
• 7:49
  Speaker 4: is skewing people's perception, it might be. Buffalo made the
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: playoffs last year. Florida didn't, but... Oddsmakers will tell you
• 7:56
  Speaker 4: and I will tell you that Florida is actually the
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: better team here. Although I think they have the better
• 8:00
  Speaker 4: record this year, so maybe people will be back on
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: the Florida train a little bit. Both teams are coming
• 8:06
  Speaker 4: off ugly losses, though. Buffalo just lost at home to
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: Dallas and Utah. Decent teams there. Dallas is definitely good.
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: Maybe Buffalo will bounce back after that, try to get
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: this last win on this road trip, or excuse me,
• 8:19
  Speaker 4: this homestand, excuse me, where they're 2-2. Buffalo, though, this
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: could be a look ahead for them. I know it
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: sounds crazy. They might overlook Florida here, especially coming off
• 8:28
  Speaker 4: an ugly loss. But Montreal is who they play tomorrow.
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: And Montreal is the team that eliminated Buffalo from the
• 8:35
  Speaker 4: playoffs last year. So that's a huge revenge game on
• 8:38
  Speaker 4: deck for Buffalo. Playoff revenge. You remember who ended your season, man.
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: So Buffalo may actually put more stock into that game
• 8:45
  Speaker 4: tomorrow than they will into this game. That would be
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: what would worry me about Buffalo here. Florida is in
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: a bounce-back spot as well, I would say, after they
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: lost pretty badly at home.
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: They were in a bad spot, though. I talked about that.
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: I said I leaned Minnesota in that game because Florida
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: was returning home from a road trip, and they immediately
• 9:02
  Speaker 4: had to go back out on the road, although they
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: had a lot of time off. to try to overcome
• 9:06
  Speaker 4: that road trip return, but it didn't happen. They took
• 9:08
  Speaker 4: a bad loss in that one. Minnesota's a good team,
• 9:11
  Speaker 4: but still, you don't want to lose 4-1 at home.
• 9:13
  Speaker 4: But it's kind of explainable because it was a return
• 9:15
  Speaker 4: home spot. It was Florida's home opener, which sometimes you
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: do get up for that. But in this case, I
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: just think the return from the road trip, I think,
• 9:23
  Speaker 4: messed with them. Now they go back out on the
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: road here. I think it's more of a bounce-back spot
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: for Florida, though, because once you have that bad game
• 9:31
  Speaker 4: and you do lose at home in that return home spot,
• 9:33
  Speaker 4: a lot of times... you do bounce back and play
• 9:35
  Speaker 4: better in the next game. And I think for Florida,
• 9:37
  Speaker 4: they play tomorrow too.
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: They play Columbus.
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: But I think this Buffalo game is the bigger of
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: these two for Florida.
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: So I would lean Florida in this game.
• 9:45
  Speaker 4: 65% of the tickets, 85% of the cash on them.
• 9:49
  Speaker 4: So the money seems like it's agreeing with me on this,
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: even though the line looks like it kind of initially
• 9:53
  Speaker 4: flipped from Florida being a favorite to almost Buffalo being
• 9:56
  Speaker 4: a favorite.
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: But it's still like a pick-em price range. pretty much. So,
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: odds maker is still telling you Florida is the better
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: team here.
• 10:04
  Speaker 4: We have Ottawa at New Jersey, which is the NHL
• 10:07
  Speaker 4: Network game at 7 p.m.
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: Eastern.
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: New Jersey staying at home off of beating Vancouver pretty easily.
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: Vancouver sucks. New Jersey, I mean, I think they're a
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: decent team. They're not really battle-tested yet, though. I mean...
• 10:19
  Speaker 4: Their Windsor gets Philadelphia in overtime and Vancouver, both at home.
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: But they haven't really shown much yet. Ottawa probably has
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: the better-looking resume so far.
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: I mean, they are also 4-1.
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: They have the better-looking record. Although, if you look at
• 10:33
  Speaker 4: Ottawa's resume, they haven't really beaten anybody good either, to
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: be honest.
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: I mean, who's the best team they beat? Maybe Toronto?
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 10:39
  Speaker 4: Toronto did just beat the Avs the other day. I mean,
• 10:42
  Speaker 4: you know I'm not high on my Bruins. Philadelphia, I'm
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: not really. Nashville, definitely not. So yeah, Ottawa has played
• 10:48
  Speaker 4: a pretty weak schedule, too. This is a weird single-game
• 10:52
  Speaker 4: road trip for Ottawa, but it's not really sandwiched in
• 10:54
  Speaker 4: between any bigger games.
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: They play St. Louis tomorrow. I don't know if that's
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: really that big of a deal.
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: I honestly don't know what to do with this game.
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: New Jersey's about a minus-130 favorite here, and I think
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: that will.
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: possibly kind of screw with the public's head, right?
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: Because why would the team with the worst record, like
• 11:11
  Speaker 4: New Jersey's 2-2 or whatever, Ottawa's 4-1, why would New Jersey.
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: Be favored, right?
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: Well, the odds figures are telling you not only is
• 11:18
  Speaker 4: it home ice, but they're actually telling you New Jersey's
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: the slightly better team with a game line like this.
• 11:23
  Speaker 4: So that might sway me, not sway him, and he's
• 11:28
  Speaker 4: not playing today, the Bruins, But that might sway me
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: enough towards having a lean on New Jersey here.
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: But I definitely would not want to play this game.
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: 64% of tickets, 74% of the cash on New Jersey.
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: So I don't know.
• 11:41
  Speaker 4: I would think the public would be less on New
• 11:43
  Speaker 4: Jersey than that kind of seems to indicate. But the
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: money seems like it's kind of on the New Jersey
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: side too. Do with that what you want. And then
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: we have Vegas and Minnesota. So all three games tonight.
• 11:54
  Speaker 4: Look like they should be fairly competitive. Vegas and Minnesota
• 11:57
  Speaker 4: may be the best of all of them because these
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: are two really strong teams in the Western Conference. Minnesota
• 12:02
  Speaker 4: coming off beating the Panthers. But Minnesota's in a return
• 12:05
  Speaker 4: home spot. And you know I warn about that. They've
• 12:08
  Speaker 4: been away since Tuesday. So they've been away for almost
• 12:12
  Speaker 4: a week. When a team returns home from the road,
• 12:14
  Speaker 4: as I always say, a lot of times they get distracted.
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: The only thing is they might not get distracted against
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: Vegas because Vegas.
• 12:21
  Speaker 4: We know Vegas is a strong team, man, so Minnesota
• 12:24
  Speaker 4: may not overlook them. That would be one thing that
• 12:26
  Speaker 4: would give me hesitation as far as really wanting to
• 12:28
  Speaker 4: fade Minnesota here. I'd be more inclined to fade them
• 12:32
  Speaker 4: if they had a big game on deck and they
• 12:34
  Speaker 4: were facing a team they might overlook, although they do
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: have to go right back out on the road.
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: They have to go to Winnipeg tomorrow.
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: Not that that's that crazy of a travel spot, but still,
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: they do have to go out on the road. for
• 12:44
  Speaker 4: that one game tomorrow, although I think they're going to
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: put more weight into this Vegas.
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: Game, to be honest.
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: Vegas is the better opponent between them and Winnipeg, but
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: still a return home spot. Those can be tricky. You
• 12:55
  Speaker 4: have to balance the distractions there with trying to focus
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: on hockey. Vegas is sitting at 5-1 right now, although
• 13:03
  Speaker 4: I think they've had a pretty weak schedule so far. Yeah,
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: I mean, the best opponent they faced, I would say,
• 13:09
  Speaker 4: is Anaheim, and they lost that game. All their wins
• 13:12
  Speaker 4: are against... mediocre at best teams i mean toronto and
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: la i would say are pretty mediocre um those are
• 13:19
  Speaker 4: both overtime wins for vegas um now vegas starting a
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: road trip although usually you're focused when you start a
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: road trip vegas is coming off an overtime game against
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: la like i said where vegas was a big favorite
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: and almost lost the game so you know a lot
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: of times a big favorite coming off a near loss,
• 13:37
  Speaker 4: will refocus themselves and be more focused.
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: So I still think there are more reasons to lean
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: towards Vegas in this game than Minnesota.
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: 57% of the tickets, 56% of the cash on Minnesota.
• 13:48
  Speaker 4: Kind of surprised Minnesota would be public, which they're not
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: that public, but it looks like they're slightly public.
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: But Vegas has a better record.
• 13:55
  Speaker 4: Vegas won the conference last year, so you'd kind of
• 13:58
  Speaker 4: think that that wouldn't be the case. But it does
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: look like Minnesota's a somewhat public side with less of
• 14:03
  Speaker 4: the money on them. 56% of the cash. Minnesota's around
• 14:06
  Speaker 4: a minus 115 favorite or so here. Yeah, I'd lean
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: towards Vegas as the slight dog there, but not a
• 14:14
  Speaker 4: strong opinion from me. Both baseball series are in action.
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee got the win 2-1 yesterday. Mizorowski was not that
• 14:22
  Speaker 4: good though, man. He had three walks and he only
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: lasted four and a third innings. He was able to
• 14:27
  Speaker 4: get out of it only allowing one run, but He
• 14:30
  Speaker 4: easily could have allowed more runs than that man to
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: this potent Dodger lineup. Mizorowski hasn't really been that good
• 14:37
  Speaker 4: in his two playoff appearances so far.
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: I mean, he's still an elite pitcher, okay?
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: He's going to be better as he gets more experience
• 14:44
  Speaker 4: here in playoff scenarios like this, but he was shaky
• 14:49
  Speaker 4: in that game yesterday, and that could have resulted in
• 14:51
  Speaker 4: a loss, but they somehow battled through it and got
• 14:53
  Speaker 4: the win anyway. I'm not sad about it because I
• 14:56
  Speaker 4: don't really like the Dodgers. I don't like the Dodgers either,
• 14:58
  Speaker 4: so whatever. I mean, I mean, I'm rooting for Milwaukee
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: as far as, like, which team do I want to
• 15:03
  Speaker 4: win this series? Yeah, you know, fuck the Dodgers, basically.
• 15:07
  Speaker 4: The Yankees are out now, so my most hated team
• 15:10
  Speaker 4: is already out, and now I've got to swing my
• 15:12
  Speaker 4: hate over to the Dodgers, who are one of the
• 15:15
  Speaker 4: more hateable teams as well. But Milwaukee had to use
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: their better relievers yesterday, and they had to bring in
• 15:21
  Speaker 4: the bullpen earlier. Scooble outpitched Mizorowski in that game, in
• 15:25
  Speaker 4: my opinion. Like, Scooble was less wild. He lasted deeper
• 15:27
  Speaker 4: into the game. It's just he gave up two runs.
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: It just is what it is, man. And then the bullpen,
• 15:34
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee's bullpen is the better of the two. But in
• 15:36
  Speaker 4: this game today, I don't know if that's going to
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: be the case because Milwaukee used all their better relievers yesterday.
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: The bullpen had to come in in the middle of
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: the game.
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: They used Uribe.
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: They used McGill to close the game out. So Milwaukee,
• 15:49
  Speaker 4: unless they want to use some of those guys two
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: days in a row, their bullpen is probably in lesser
• 15:53
  Speaker 4: shape than the Dodgers' bullpen coming into this one. Dodgers
• 15:56
  Speaker 4: had to use less of their bullpen. And the Dodgers
• 15:59
  Speaker 4: have a more experienced starting pitcher.
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: On the mound here. Down 0-1.
• 16:04
  Speaker 4: I think I'm going to have to lean to the
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: Dodgers in this game, although I like the under probably
• 16:09
  Speaker 4: a little bit more. The under in this game almost
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: made the cut for me. I just have some question
• 16:13
  Speaker 4: marks here. One is the Milwaukee bullpen after their usage yesterday.
• 16:17
  Speaker 4: So you could cut it in half and you could
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: do a first five under.
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: If you do that, you're going to be looking at three.
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: Probably on the first five under, which for a playoff game,
• 16:25
  Speaker 4: that's not really that bad. The full game total is
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: six and a half. But I also worry about Logan
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: Henderson here just because he's inexperienced. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is pitching
• 16:35
  Speaker 4: for the Dodgers. So like I said, really experienced pitcher
• 16:38
  Speaker 4: for them here. You know, World Series MVP last year,
• 16:42
  Speaker 4: multiple playoff appearances in multiple years at this point.
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: 2.53 ERA,. 87 whip on the season, really good on
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: the road, 1.77 road ERA.
• 16:52
  Speaker 4: Was really good in his start against the Braves in
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: the postseason already. Nothing is going to faze this guy,
• 16:57
  Speaker 4: I wouldn't imagine. He's been good against Milwaukee as well.
• 17:00
  Speaker 4: In 76 at-bats, 211 average, 606 OPS, 16-6 strikeout walk ratio.
• 17:06
  Speaker 4: So I think he's going to be good. I think
• 17:08
  Speaker 4: he has the experience edge over Milwaukee. And again, I
• 17:11
  Speaker 4: think the Dodgers' bullpen setup is actually better in this
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: game based on the amount of usage yesterday. Like I said,
• 17:17
  Speaker 4: Logan Henderson is pitching for Milwaukee here.
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: He had a really good season. There's no doubt about that.
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: He's good. He's really good.
• 17:24
  Speaker 4: 2.47 ERA,. 84 whip. He was awesome at home as well, 1.84
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: home ERA. So both pitchers in their better home road
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: split here. So you can see why I like the
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: under in this game as well. Henderson was shaky in
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: his playoff start, though. That was his first playoff start
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: of his career, I'm pretty sure. Somebody can correct me
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: if I'm wrong about that, but he walked three guys
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: against San Diego.
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: Actually, let me see. Did he pitch last year?
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: Hold on.
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: Maybe I'm wrong about that. No, he didn't pitch.
• 17:53
  Speaker 4: He was on the team last year, but he was
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: not on the playoff roster, it looks like. So, yeah,
• 17:58
  Speaker 4: that was his first playoff appearance.
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: He did okay.
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: You know, he only gave up one run in five innings.
• 18:05
  Speaker 4: You can't knock him for any of that, but the
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: walks scare me a little bit. Three walks in five
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: innings is too many walks, but he was efficient with
• 18:13
  Speaker 4: his pitches, unlike Mizziarowski. Mizziarowski's been really inefficient with his
• 18:17
  Speaker 4: pitches in the playoffs so far.
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: Henderson, not really. And Henderson is.
• 18:20
  Speaker 4: Good against the Dodgers. They have 33 at-bats against him.
• 18:23
  Speaker 4: They only have one extra base hit, which is a
• 18:25
  Speaker 4: Muncie home run. 10-4 strikeout walk ratio, that's not that great.
• 18:30
  Speaker 4: It's a lot of strikeouts, though. 152 average, 486 OPS allowed.
• 18:35
  Speaker 4: Henderson does match up well here. I just worry about
• 18:38
  Speaker 4: his lack of experience a little bit. So, you know,
• 18:42
  Speaker 4: I have not, I've decided to not put this game
• 18:45
  Speaker 4: on the card. I was very close to putting the
• 18:47
  Speaker 4: under on the card, though. You're looking at, actually, you
• 18:50
  Speaker 4: know what? Seven minus 121 at Caesars. I kind of
• 18:57
  Speaker 4: want to do it, man. I kind of want to
• 18:58
  Speaker 4: play the under. 53% of tickets on the over, 69%
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: of the cash on the under. But the under was
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: a better play yesterday, I think, because the pitchers were better.
• 19:07
  Speaker 4: I know the total was really low, though. It was six,
• 19:09
  Speaker 4: but it still won if you did play the under yesterday.
• 19:11
  Speaker 4: That was my best lean that I had in the
• 19:13
  Speaker 4: game yesterday, and it was correct.
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: Yesterday was... Who were the pitchers in the game yesterday?
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: I don't even remember.
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: Oh, Skubal and Mizorowski, yeah. Mizorowski was shaky enough in
• 19:26
  Speaker 4: that game that that under could have been in more
• 19:28
  Speaker 4: trouble than it was, though, but One of the reasons
• 19:31
  Speaker 4: I liked it yesterday quite a bit, even though I
• 19:33
  Speaker 4: didn't put it on my card, was the bullpens are rested.
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean?
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: Coming into this game, the bullpens are not rested anymore
• 19:39
  Speaker 4: because they played yesterday. Milwaukee's would worry me a little bit.
• 19:44
  Speaker 4: Do we go under first five here maybe?
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man. Maybe I should just leave it alone.
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I mean, I like it, though.
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: I mean, if I was going to add any play today,
• 19:55
  Speaker 4: it would be the under in this game in some capacity.
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: Let me see.
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: What can we get on the full game here? Yeah,
• 20:01
  Speaker 4: the Roman Emperors book, 7-121. I see a 7-120 at
• 20:03
  Speaker 4: the shoddy merchandise book. Yeah, you know, for the first five,
• 20:12
  Speaker 4: I see a three and a half in the first five.
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: Really? Hmm. Yeah, that's pretty interesting. Hmm.
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: Three and a half in the first five. That is
• 20:27
  Speaker 4: pretty tempting, isn't it? I really expected it to be three.
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: Three and a half. You know what? Yeah, let's do it,
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: and then we don't have to worry about the bullpen usage, whatever.
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: Fine. I don't know if we're going to win this
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: one or not, but I don't know. Let's have some fun,
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: I guess. I don't know.
• 20:50
  Speaker 4: Maybe play it for a little bit less money, but
• 20:52
  Speaker 4: all right.
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: We'll add... Oh, sorry. This is the first five under.
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: Hang on. Let me see. Whoops. StreamYard's just messing up
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: with the cursor here. Hang on.
• 21:07
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: Ugh.
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: The timer's getting messed up. There we go. All right, yeah. Dodgers-Milwaukee,
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: first 500, three and a half. There you go. That'll
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: be my play. Mr. Pinsey, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 21:21
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: We'll do that.
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: And I lean to the Dodgers in this game, too.
• 21:26
  Speaker 4: They're apparently getting the money. 76% of tickets, though. They're public,
• 21:30
  Speaker 4: but 93% of the cash on them. I just think
• 21:33
  Speaker 4: the experience goes to the Dodgers here with Yamamoto. And
• 21:36
  Speaker 4: I think their bullpen sets up better after what the
• 21:39
  Speaker 4: usage looked like yesterday and possible bounce back after losing
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: the game yesterday. So I would lean to LA in
• 21:44
  Speaker 4: this game, but first five under will be my actual
• 21:47
  Speaker 4: play there. And then the ALCS begins as well with
• 21:51
  Speaker 4: Cleveland and Tampa Bay. Now these teams have had some
• 21:54
  Speaker 4: days off. Tampa Bay has had more days off, so
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: they're more rested here than Cleveland is.
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: Cleveland had to go to five games and won their
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: series on Sunday.
• 22:03
  Speaker 4: Saturday I believe right so Cleveland only has one day
• 22:06
  Speaker 4: off here but still it's rest you know so and
• 22:10
  Speaker 4: this is another potential under I will say I mean
• 22:13
  Speaker 4: it's another low total both totals are six and a
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: half pretty much odds makers know what they're doing here.
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: You have two capable bullpens again in this series, although
• 22:22
  Speaker 4: I think Cleveland's is a little bit better. But bullpens
• 22:25
  Speaker 4: are rested. Bullpens are both pretty good here. Cleveland's offense
• 22:29
  Speaker 4: is bad.
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: They're really bad. Even though we saw them have a.
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: Little bit of an outburst in Chicago, we'll see if
• 22:36
  Speaker 4: they can do anything in Tampa. I mean, it's probably
• 22:38
  Speaker 4: a little bit more hitter-friendly in Tampa than it is
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: in Cleveland, but still. And it's indoors, and it's warmer
• 22:44
  Speaker 4: in Florida anyway, so the hitting might be a little
• 22:46
  Speaker 4: bit better.
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: Than it would be in Cleveland in October.
• 22:50
  Speaker 4: Although Cleveland was hitting in Chicago, and I'm sure it
• 22:52
  Speaker 4: wasn't warm there either at this point. By the way,
• 22:55
  Speaker 4: the LA and Milwaukee games on Fox and Fox Sports 1.
• 22:58
  Speaker 4: This AL game is on TBS and TruTV. What else
• 23:03
  Speaker 4: was I about to say about this game? Oh, also
• 23:06
  Speaker 4: the extra rest can kind of cool off the hitting
• 23:08
  Speaker 4: a little bit here. Tampa is kind of a small
• 23:11
  Speaker 4: ball offense as well, even though they do have a
• 23:13
  Speaker 4: couple of power hitters in there. But yeah, I'm thinking
• 23:14
  Speaker 4: the under makes some sense in this game too. Foster
• 23:17
  Speaker 4: Griffin will actually finally get a start in the playoffs
• 23:20
  Speaker 4: for Cleveland. I don't know what Cleveland has been doing
• 23:22
  Speaker 4: with this starting rotation, man. It's been a little bit
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: odd to see how they've managed their pitching, where really
• 23:28
  Speaker 4: they've only used two guys as starters in the playoffs
• 23:31
  Speaker 4: so far.
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: Gavin Williams and Parker Messick.
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: They haven't used Griffin or Bybee as starters, even though
• 23:38
  Speaker 4: you'd think This is why they got Griffin at the
• 23:40
  Speaker 4: trade deadline to use them in their starting rotation. He
• 23:44
  Speaker 4: had a good season, and Bybee is experienced as far
• 23:47
  Speaker 4: as being a playoff pitcher, so I don't know what
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: they're doing with him.
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: He came out of the bullpen the other day.
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: Griffin had a 3.6 ERA this year, 1.21 whip. I mean,
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: not excellent, but certainly pretty good. He really came from
• 24:00
  Speaker 4: out of nowhere and had a good.
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: Season this year.
• 24:02
  Speaker 4: I don't know if he was pitching in Japan or
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: what was going on with him, why he isn't. He's
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: basically not pitched to this extent in the majors ever,
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: and he's 31 now, so I don't know. So he
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: does lack playoff experience, so that's one thing. And he
• 24:15
  Speaker 4: was not quite as good on the road, 3.76 road ERA.
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: He pitched in the White Sox series once, and he
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: had a lot of strikeouts, dude. He went two and two-thirds,
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: only allowed one earned run.
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: I mean, that's fine. On two hits, no walks, but
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: he had seven strikeouts. That's insane. Two and two-thirds inning,
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: seven strikeouts. That's ridiculous.
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: I believe, I'm pretty sure Cleveland set a major league
• 24:37
  Speaker 4: record in that game. for a total amount of strikeouts
• 24:41
  Speaker 4: in a nine-inning game for a pitching staff.
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: This was game... Was it this game? Let me see.
• 24:49
  Speaker 4: No, because they had 19 in this one. I'm pretty
• 24:52
  Speaker 4: sure that Cleveland did do it, though, in one of
• 24:53
  Speaker 4: their games. Maybe it was the last game of the series.
• 24:56
  Speaker 4: Cleveland's been getting a lot of strikeouts. I don't know
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: what the deal is there, but they had one game
• 25:00
  Speaker 4: where I think they had 21 strikeouts, which was a...
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: major league record for a nine inning game even though
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: I know we have had multiple pitchers Kerry Wood and
• 25:10
  Speaker 4: Roger Clemens I think have had 20 strikeouts in a
• 25:13
  Speaker 4: single game before but apparently they must have pitched complete
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: games in those games or something because apparently there were
• 25:19
  Speaker 4: there was not a 21st strikeout in either of those
• 25:21
  Speaker 4: games so I would imagine they both pitched complete games
• 25:24
  Speaker 4: there anyway Foster Griffin, he is good against Tampa, but it's, well,
• 25:31
  Speaker 4: it's a really limited sample, excuse me. Yeah, they're only
• 25:33
  Speaker 4: 0 for 1 off him. Only Aranda and Walls have
• 25:36
  Speaker 4: faced him. They're 0 for 1.
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: Walls has a walk.
• 25:39
  Speaker 4: Aranda has a strikeout. So, yeah, there's not really a
• 25:41
  Speaker 4: whole lot to dig into there. But Griffin is unfamiliar
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: to them, though. So he might have an edge because
• 25:47
  Speaker 4: he's unfamiliar to Tampa and they have to figure him
• 25:49
  Speaker 4: out on the fly.
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: Tampa's got the better pitcher here, though. That's Drew Rasmussen.
• 25:54
  Speaker 4: Rasmussen has had a really good season, his best, even
• 25:57
  Speaker 4: though he's had some good seasons in the past. He's
• 26:00
  Speaker 4: in the Cy Young running this season, even though he's
• 26:02
  Speaker 4: not going to get it, but 2.67 here, a.
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: 91 whip.
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: He was actually a little bit worse at home, believe
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: it or not. 2.87 home ERA, although that reminds me,
• 26:13
  Speaker 4: Tampa is a very good home team, by the way.
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: Cleveland was actually pretty good on the road, though, when
• 26:18
  Speaker 4: it all came down to it. Cleveland was up seven
• 26:21
  Speaker 4: games on the road, so that's not bad. Although Tampa
• 26:24
  Speaker 4: had an elite home record, I think tied with Milwaukee
• 26:27
  Speaker 4: for the best home record in baseball. Rasmussen's coming off
• 26:30
  Speaker 4: an awesome performance against the Yankees in the ALDS, where
• 26:34
  Speaker 4: he had a one-hitter loss. through eight innings and allowed
• 26:37
  Speaker 4: no runs, ten strikeouts, two walks. He took a no-hitter
• 26:40
  Speaker 4: into the eighth inning in that game, if I'm not mistaken,
• 26:42
  Speaker 4: or into the seventh inning maybe is what it was,
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: and then Austin Wells had the hit, which was that
• 26:47
  Speaker 4: double down the line, and then he stupidly tried to
• 26:50
  Speaker 4: turn it into a triple and got thrown out by
• 26:53
  Speaker 4: a mile at third base.
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: What a fucking idiot. Oh, my God.
• 26:56
  Speaker 4: Yankees made so— Dude, Yankees fundamentally— They got to fire
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: Aaron Boone, dude. Their fundamentals are just such shit. They
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: had so many bad fielding plays in that series and
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: bad base running mistakes.
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: Totally ridiculous.
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: Rasmussen, the question is, is he going to be in
• 27:13
  Speaker 4: a letdown spot after that really, really good performance? That
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: was one of his best starts of his career, dude. Really,
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: really good stuff. He threw 101 pitches. He actually faced
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: the Yankees towards the end of the season and threw 114,
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: but at least in only 62 thirds.
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: That's not great. It was inefficient in that start, but.
• 27:33
  Speaker 4: Still was good, and he had rest between that and
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: the playoff game. So how concerned are we about the
• 27:38
  Speaker 4: fact that he threw 101 pitches?
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: I don't think I'm that concerned by it, really. And
• 27:43
  Speaker 4: he's facing a really weak Cleveland lineup here. Cleveland has
• 27:46
  Speaker 4: not done well against them. They have 72 at-bats against them,
• 27:49
  Speaker 4: 167 average, 405 OPS. So they do not have good
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: numbers off him whatsoever here. If I can bring up
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: this window again, yeah, 18-4 strikeout walk ratio. So I
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: think Rasmussen will pitch well here as well.
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: Um, the money is fading Tampa Bay. I think people
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: are going to give Tampa Bay too much credit. Oh
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: my God.
• 28:08
  Speaker 4: Tampa swept the Yankees. Like they looked awesome in sweeping
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: the Yankees, right? Whereas Cleveland had to go to five
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: games and fell down. Oh, two to the white socks.
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: I think Tampa is going to get a lot more
• 28:18
  Speaker 4: credit for that. And Rasmussen is the better pitcher here.
• 28:22
  Speaker 4: There's no doubt about that, but they're getting a lot
• 28:24
  Speaker 4: of public action here. 92% of the tickets and only
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: 55% of the cash. So the money is indicating towards
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: Cleveland here. Part of it is the price. It's at
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: minus 170 or so here on Tampa. That is a
• 28:36
  Speaker 4: pretty hefty price in what looks like it might be
• 28:39
  Speaker 4: somewhat of a pitching duel here. So even though I
• 28:42
  Speaker 4: agree Rasmussen is the better pitcher, he's the more experienced pitcher.
• 28:46
  Speaker 4: I don't know how much playoff experience he has, but Griffin,
• 28:50
  Speaker 4: I believe, doesn't have any prior to this year, I'm
• 28:52
  Speaker 4: pretty sure. So it seems like Tampa should somehow win
• 28:56
  Speaker 4: this game, but Cleveland does have the better bullpen. Tampa
• 29:00
  Speaker 4: definitely has the better offense, so Tampa does have the
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: better starter. But again, the price, I don't know. It
• 29:05
  Speaker 4: seems like the money is taking Cleveland here. You could
• 29:07
  Speaker 4: take them on a plus one run line to keep
• 29:09
  Speaker 4: the game close. That makes some sense to me. And
• 29:14
  Speaker 4: Tampa might have too many days off.
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean?
• 29:16
  Speaker 4: Like when you're winning like Tampa is, you don't want
• 29:18
  Speaker 4: to have extra days off because it can hurt your momentum.
• 29:22
  Speaker 4: Whereas Cleveland has the momentum right now and only one
• 29:24
  Speaker 4: day off. They might be able to continue. that momentum, right,
• 29:27
  Speaker 4: whereas Tampa might just be sitting at home, listening to
• 29:30
  Speaker 4: the media, getting them all hyped up, you know, yeah,
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: we swept the Yankees, you know, that's awesome, whatever, but,
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: you know, Cleveland, I mean, people are going to shit
• 29:40
  Speaker 4: on Cleveland cause their offense blows and it definitely does,
• 29:42
  Speaker 4: but this Cleveland team could definitely pitch.
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: So there is that, um, we'll see what happens, man.
• 29:48
  Speaker 4: Although again, Rasmussen is obviously Tampa's ace here, but I
• 29:51
  Speaker 4: would lean under in this game more than anything else.
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: Uh, both games. I think the under makes the most sense.
• 29:56
  Speaker 4: 63% of tickets on the over 68% of the cash
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: on the under here. I don't think you'll find a seven,
• 30:02
  Speaker 4: but maybe because there's a lot of six and a
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: half with heavy over juice.
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: So maybe you will find a seven on this one.
• 30:09
  Speaker 4: Um, And, you know, it looks like there are sevens
• 30:11
  Speaker 4: coming up everywhere in the other game now, which is interesting.
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: So we'll see what happens there.
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: Although I elected to go first five just because I'm
• 30:20
  Speaker 4: worried that Milwaukee used all their better relievers pretty much yesterday.
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: This game, though, you don't have to worry about that.
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: Cleveland, Tampa Bay, all the best relievers are available here
• 30:28
  Speaker 4: because the bullpen's arrested. The offense has kind of cooled
• 30:31
  Speaker 4: off a little bit. So the under does make sense here.
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: Griffin is really the question mark. Like, I don't think
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: Rasmussen is going to pitch bad. He's got a good
• 30:39
  Speaker 4: matchup here. It's just obviously in the other game, Yamamoto
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: and Henderson, I think that's a more elite pitching matchup.
• 30:47
  Speaker 4: And those guys both have really good home road splits
• 30:49
  Speaker 4: for that game. Griffin and Rasmussen, not quite as much.
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: They're in fact, actually both in their lesser home road
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: split here.
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: So we will see.
• 30:56
  Speaker 4: And Griffin is the least of all four of the
• 30:59
  Speaker 4: pitchers today too. So we will see what happens, man.
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: It's interesting.
• 31:04
  Speaker 4: And then we do have an NFL game, which I've
• 31:06
  Speaker 4: given out my opinion on it already, but it's not
• 31:09
  Speaker 4: a play for me or anything. It is Buffalo at L.A.
• 31:13
  Speaker 4: here on ESPN on the Monday night game, of course.
• 31:15
  Speaker 4: Both teams are having to travel east to west here.
• 31:18
  Speaker 4: So I always talk about how that's a negative. Buffalo
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: is coming in from home.
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: L.A.
• 31:22
  Speaker 4: Is coming in from Philadelphia. So both teams are having
• 31:24
  Speaker 4: to go east to west and readjust to the Pacific
• 31:27
  Speaker 4: time zone. That's a negative because it messes with your
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: biological clock.
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: But I think L.A.
• 31:32
  Speaker 4: Will be more prepared to handle it, even though I
• 31:34
  Speaker 4: know Sean McVay had that debacle with going to Australia
• 31:38
  Speaker 4: or whatever.
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: That was stupid.
• 31:39
  Speaker 4: But going back to your home stadium is not something
• 31:43
  Speaker 4: unfamiliar to them.
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean?
• 31:45
  Speaker 4: L.A. has already played multiple games on the Pacific Coast
• 31:47
  Speaker 4: this year. Buffalo has not. Buffalo I don't think has
• 31:51
  Speaker 4: gone anywhere further than central time yeah which I think
• 31:54
  Speaker 4: they were there for Houston and that was it so
• 31:57
  Speaker 4: this is going to be a little bit more unfamiliar
• 31:58
  Speaker 4: for Buffalo even though they played in LA either last
• 32:01
  Speaker 4: year or the year before that but even so and
• 32:04
  Speaker 4: I think I don't remember Buffalo might have gotten caught
• 32:07
  Speaker 4: the last time they did and lost I don't remember
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: I remember I had whatever it was I had a
• 32:12
  Speaker 4: I had a play on the game, and I was
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: fading whoever the heavily public favorite was in that game.
• 32:17
  Speaker 4: I think Buffalo was the heavily public favorite there. I
• 32:20
  Speaker 4: don't know, but Buffalo's a public underdog in this game, though.
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: People still like Buffalo right now because they're 3-1, LA's 2-2.
• 32:27
  Speaker 3: Buffalo has sort of looked.
• 32:29
  Speaker 4: Like the better team, right, because they put up all
• 32:31
  Speaker 4: these heavy offensive numbers. And, you know, the Patriots looked
• 32:34
  Speaker 4: really good yesterday. just destroying the Raiders, which I was
• 32:38
  Speaker 4: correct about. So the public is not going to really
• 32:42
  Speaker 4: knock Buffalo that much for losing to the Patriots as
• 32:44
  Speaker 4: the Patriots are starting to play better again. But the
• 32:47
  Speaker 4: way I look at it is that was a big
• 32:49
  Speaker 4: game for Buffalo, even though they did lose as a
• 32:51
  Speaker 4: big favorite. And a lot of times when a big
• 32:53
  Speaker 4: favorite loses, I'll look for them to bounce back. But
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: I don't think I want to in this game. I mean,
• 32:57
  Speaker 4: Buffalo's been at home for three straight games. They're going
• 33:00
  Speaker 4: out on the road after a big divisional game. They're
• 33:03
  Speaker 4: less used to having to go to the Pacific Coast
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: than the Rams do because the Rams actually play there
• 33:07
  Speaker 4: than the Rams are, I should say, because the Rams
• 33:09
  Speaker 4: actually play there. Rams have not been at home since
• 33:12
  Speaker 4: their week two game. And that was their only home game,
• 33:15
  Speaker 4: by the way, because the Rams started the season in
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: Australia and their time zone management was terrible. But their
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: home game, they won easily against the Giants. Again, I
• 33:24
  Speaker 4: know Dart went down in that game, but the Rams
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: are a play for me. They would have won that
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: game anyway, I'm pretty sure, really easily. Then the Rams
• 33:32
  Speaker 4: went on the road for two games and they lost
• 33:34
  Speaker 4: to the Broncos and barely beat the Eagles, which isn't
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: going to make them look good. But look at the
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: stats in these games, though. The Rams had a huge
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: lead against the Broncos and wound up blowing it. And
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: the Rams outgamed the Broncos. by over 200 yards in
• 33:47
  Speaker 4: that game. So the Rams are actually the better team
• 33:49
  Speaker 4: in this game by far. They dominated possession as well.
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: There was a pick six later in the game. I
• 33:58
  Speaker 4: think there was also a big kick return for Denver
• 34:00
  Speaker 4: in that game that kind of skewed the game a bit.
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: So L.A. was way better in that game than it
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: looked like.
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: And then in the Eagles game, they only won 24-10,
• 34:10
  Speaker 4: and they had to actually come back and win this game.
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: But look at this game.
• 34:13
  Speaker 4: They outgained Philly by over 200 yards in this game.
• 34:16
  Speaker 4: Had two turnovers, which kind of hurt them. But they
• 34:18
  Speaker 4: dominated this game, too. More than doubled Philly's first down.
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: So, yeah, L.A. In their last two games, L.A. was
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: way better than they appeared to be on the scoreboard.
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: This L.A. team dominated those last two games. So, really...
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: LA has only had one bad game on the season.
• 34:34
  Speaker 4: It was that bad Australia game where they mismanaged the
• 34:37
  Speaker 4: time zone situation, whatever. I w I would throw that
• 34:40
  Speaker 4: game completely out. Plus the 49ers do look really good.
• 34:44
  Speaker 4: And I was correct about them, um, winning it yesterday against, uh, Seattle. So, uh,
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: close game, crazy game. That one was, um, Although I
• 34:53
  Speaker 4: think Seattle had a bunch of turnovers that kind of
• 34:56
  Speaker 4: helped the Niners in that one. So maybe I wasn't
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: totally right, but whatever. LA has played better than it
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: looks like on the scoreboard, man.
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: They're coming off two.
• 35:05
  Speaker 4: statistically dominant performances in Mile High Stadium and in Philadelphia,
• 35:09
  Speaker 4: and that's just not that easy to do.
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: This L.A. team is the better team, dude. I'm sorry.
• 35:14
  Speaker 4: I know Buffalo has a good offense, but L.A. is
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: a more balanced team. Their offense is definitely capable, and
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: their defense is the better defense here. Even without Miles Garrett,
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: and I think Aaron Donald might be hurt as well,
• 35:25
  Speaker 4: it doesn't even matter.
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: This L.A. team has enough depth. that they can cover
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: for that. And as you see, Buffalo's a public underdog.
• 35:33
  Speaker 4: 66% of tickets on them, 51% of the cash on LA.
• 35:37
  Speaker 4: Although you could have laid two and a half with LA.
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: So that's not great that you now have to lay
• 35:42
  Speaker 4: three and a half. I would not want to do that.
• 35:44
  Speaker 4: If you're, if you're going to play LA, I would
• 35:46
  Speaker 4: try to find a three, um, you know, I would
• 35:49
  Speaker 4: just wait because the public is potentially going to hold
• 35:52
  Speaker 4: this number down. Like right now it's mostly three and
• 35:55
  Speaker 4: a halves out there, but it's three and a half
• 35:56
  Speaker 4: with reduced juice at a lot of places. So hopefully
• 35:59
  Speaker 4: you can still get a three and at least not
• 36:01
  Speaker 4: have to lay the hook and get on that key number.
• 36:03
  Speaker 4: Of course you could play the Rams money line, although
• 36:05
  Speaker 4: it'd be a little bit expensive. You could parlay that
• 36:07
  Speaker 4: maybe with a money line, you know, in one of
• 36:11
  Speaker 4: these next games here, like, uh, You know, I mean,
• 36:14
  Speaker 4: just off the cuff, I mean, I don't know, maybe
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: Jacksonville in the London game because they're staying in London. And,
• 36:20
  Speaker 4: you know, I don't know, though, because Houston's going to
• 36:23
  Speaker 4: have some new momentum after they finally won a game, though.
• 36:25
  Speaker 4: But Jacksonville is going to be staying in London.
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: So I don't know.
• 36:28
  Speaker 4: I haven't really looked at the upcoming slate yet for
• 36:31
  Speaker 4: the NFL to really figure it out. But, you know,
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: you could Moneyline parlay the Rams with something.
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean? You could Moneyline parlay them with.
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: No, I mean, I was going to say maybe with Tampa,
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: but I wouldn't do that.
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 36:46
  Speaker 4: Did I like any of the hockey favorites today? I
• 36:48
  Speaker 4: don't even remember what I said about hockey. Well, no,
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: there aren't any big enough favorites at all in hockey,
• 36:53
  Speaker 4: so no, not really. I mean, I guess New Jersey
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: is a little bit juicy. I mean, I guess you.
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man. I don't recommend parlays anyway, though.
• 37:00
  Speaker 4: I think if you're going to play this game, find
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: LA at minus three, or you can play LA's team
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: total over. The over is going to be public here, though,
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: but I was right about the over in the Detroit
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: and Arizona game. I said I didn't love trying to
• 37:13
  Speaker 4: figure out the side in that game, and I thought
• 37:15
  Speaker 4: the over was going to be the right play in
• 37:17
  Speaker 4: that game. That Detroit defense just isn't very good, and
• 37:19
  Speaker 4: their offense is.
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: Very good.
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: And that's what happened. I mean, that game went over
• 37:23
  Speaker 4: with no real problem. This game, though, I'm not so
• 37:27
  Speaker 4: sure about this game, though. The total's high, 54.5, but again,
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: Monday night, the Osweggers have to skew that number a
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: little bit higher because they know the public is playing
• 37:36
  Speaker 4: the over, and they are. 73% of tickets, 76% of
• 37:40
  Speaker 4: the cash on the over, though.
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: So it's a public over.
• 37:45
  Speaker 4: I'm less inclined to want to do anything with trying
• 37:47
  Speaker 4: to play the over in this one, you know, because...
• 37:50
  Speaker 4: I think the Rams and the under are actually somewhat correlated,
• 37:53
  Speaker 4: even though the Rams are a favorite.
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: If the Rams are going.
• 37:55
  Speaker 4: To win this thing, it probably means their defense is
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: playing well enough to hold Buffalo's offense in check.
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: A little bit. You know what I mean?
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: I think that's kind of the path for the Rams
• 38:04
  Speaker 4: to win this game here. They cannot get in a
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: shootout because that's what Buffalo wants to do because Buffalo's
• 38:10
  Speaker 4: offense is obviously their advantage that they have here. So, yeah,
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: that's what I think about that. Um, but again, Rams
• 38:19
  Speaker 4: team total is not out of the question anyway, right?
• 38:22
  Speaker 4: Even if, even if you don't really love the over
• 38:23
  Speaker 4: in the game and I don't Rams team total over,
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: I don't know what their number is on the total though.
• 38:29
  Speaker 4: It's definitely going to be like in the high twenties,
• 38:31
  Speaker 4: I would say something like that. Um, They might be
• 38:34
  Speaker 4: able to get there, though. Buffalo's defense is not that good,
• 38:36
  Speaker 4: so Rams' team total over is a possibility. Of course,
• 38:39
  Speaker 4: the total is kind of high, so again, oddsmakers, yeah,
• 38:42
  Speaker 4: they've got to skew it because they know the public's
• 38:44
  Speaker 4: coming in on the over, but there's a reason why
• 38:47
  Speaker 4: they put a total out there as high as it
• 38:48
  Speaker 4: is because they think there will be.
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: Scoring in this game.
• 38:52
  Speaker 4: You're looking at offenses that are certainly capable, like I said,
• 38:54
  Speaker 4: and Buffalo's defense is not very good. yeah those are
• 38:59
  Speaker 4: my thoughts on that game my main lean in that
• 39:02
  Speaker 4: game is definitely to the rams though in some capacity
• 39:05
  Speaker 4: so that's what i think about that game that is
• 39:08
  Speaker 4: going to do it the one play that i decided
• 39:10
  Speaker 4: to put on the card on the fly first five
• 39:12
  Speaker 4: under three and a half dodgers brewers hopefully you can
• 39:16
  Speaker 4: get it man um avoiding the bullpens in that one
• 39:20
  Speaker 4: Hopefully the starters are good enough to get us there.
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: Kind of mad I didn't do the same thing yesterday,
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: to be honest. Finding a different way, avoiding the full
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: game six. That would have been a win too. But
• 39:31
  Speaker 4: playing just the first five under. Although Mizurowski was shaky
• 39:33
  Speaker 4: enough that maybe the under didn't deserve to hit in
• 39:36
  Speaker 4: that game.
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 39:37
  Speaker 4: Full game it probably did, though. Because the bullpens did
• 39:40
  Speaker 4: really well in the game yesterday.
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: So, whatever.
• 39:43
  Speaker 4: But I'm excluding the bullpens here because Milwaukee's bullpen usage
• 39:47
  Speaker 4: worries me, and the Dodgers' bullpen is not as good
• 39:49
  Speaker 4: as Milwaukee's.
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: We'll go first five with that.
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: Calvin, what's up, man?
• 39:58
  Speaker 4: I stayed away from that game as well, but I
• 40:00
  Speaker 4: give out an opinion on every game. You're agreeing with
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: me on L.A.? Hell yeah. Yeah, I mean, the market
• 40:06
  Speaker 4: read seems to be there on it. When I went
• 40:09
  Speaker 4: through it in my head, my first reaction to it was,
• 40:14
  Speaker 4: I don't know how to figure this game out because
• 40:15
  Speaker 4: it was like, well, both teams are going east to west,
• 40:17
  Speaker 4: which is a negative. Both teams are coming off sort
• 40:21
  Speaker 4: of big games, so that's difficult to figure out. But
• 40:24
  Speaker 4: when you dive into it, I think the analysis I
• 40:26
  Speaker 4: just gave, I think that's sort of the key, which
• 40:30
  Speaker 4: has me leaning towards the Rams in that game. But definitely,
• 40:32
  Speaker 4: I would not want to actually make a play on it.
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: Some people just need to have action on Monday night, though.
• 40:38
  Speaker 4: If you do it, I would say just only bet
• 40:40
  Speaker 4: what you can afford on it, man. But that's going
• 40:42
  Speaker 4: to do it. Learn to Tote on Twitter. Learn to
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: Tote on Instagram. Like and subscribe to the channel here.
• 40:47
  Speaker 4: You get notified when I go live, of course. Listen
• 40:49
  Speaker 4: on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. Covered in Uke is my
• 40:53
  Speaker 4: ukulele channel on YouTube. Patreon.com slash Learn to Tote if
• 40:56
  Speaker 4: you want to support me there. Some bonus Uke stuff there.
• 40:59
  Speaker 4: I don't pay enough attention to it, though, so I apologize.
• 41:02
  Speaker 4: Loser cast will be back with a new episode tomorrow.
• 41:05
  Speaker 4: I have no idea who my loser choice is going
• 41:07
  Speaker 4: to be right now. And, yeah, I think that's all
• 41:10
  Speaker 4: I got. I appreciate it, guys.
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: Penzi, Calvin, Candle, or Candy. I keep saying Candle. It's Candy,
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: isn't it? Calvin Candy. Calvin J. Candy. Is that like
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: Willy Wonka? You're a purveyor of.
• 41:25
  Speaker 4: Sweet treats and a total weirdo, and you're going to
• 41:28
  Speaker 4: have the kids come into your factory and turn them
• 41:31
  Speaker 4: into– you know, other forms of candy and fruit and whatever.
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: Uh, I don't know. That's going to do it.
• 41:40
  Speaker 4: Uh, yeah, I don't know where dirty sock is this morning, but, uh,
• 41:43
  Speaker 4: I don't know. I, I make everybody mad.
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: So who knows? Maybe people will just not come back.
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: Oh yeah, that's right. Yeah, you're right. He's the slave
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: owner in Django. Yeah. I forgot about that. You're right.
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: That is your, I should have remembered that cause that
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: is your profile picture. I forget. That's Leo.
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: I forgot. I forgot what his name was. You're right.
• 42:01
  Speaker 4: Um, Yeah, that movie, I might need to re-watch that movie.
• 42:04
  Speaker 4: I'm not a huge Tarantino fan, though. And, you know,
• 42:08
  Speaker 4: I mean, there are a lot of reasons for it.
• 42:10
  Speaker 4: Not just that I think he over-stylizes every movie, but
• 42:14
  Speaker 4: he's not a good dude.
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: So there is that.
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: But, you know, I mean, I'm on board with some
• 42:20
  Speaker 4: of his older movies. I think Pulp Fiction, Reservoir Dogs.
• 42:24
  Speaker 4: I like Jackie Brown as well, though a lot of
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: people seem to not like them. I think those are
• 42:28
  Speaker 4: his three best movies, though.
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: Don't really like much else from him, though.
• 42:33
  Speaker 4: And, you know, some of them, like, I don't know,
• 42:35
  Speaker 4: Inglourious Bastards is actually a terrible movie.
• 42:38
  Speaker 3: It's just such shit, dude. The only good part of
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: it is Waltz.
• 42:42
  Speaker 4: Waltz is acting in it. Everything else about that movie
• 42:45
  Speaker 4: is total shit. And, yeah, I don't know what else
• 42:48
  Speaker 4: I have to say. Now I'm going off on a
• 42:51
  Speaker 4: Tarantino rant. Kill Bill is way overrated, too. Like, everybody, oh, yeah,
• 42:54
  Speaker 4: it's this slick revenge thriller or whatever, but, yeah, it's
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: way too long and... It's just over-stylized. There's zero substance
• 43:02
  Speaker 4: in it. They just draw that shit out way too long.
• 43:06
  Speaker 4: I don't know what else to tell you about that.
• 43:08
  Speaker 4: I don't like his use of music in it either. Yeah,
• 43:13
  Speaker 4: the blood splatters, maybe.
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: Also, if you watch Pulp Fiction....
• 43:19
  Speaker 4: Because there were so many different characters in it, different
• 43:21
  Speaker 4: plot lines, it's like, only some of them are actually good,
• 43:24
  Speaker 4: and some of them are not good, you know what
• 43:26
  Speaker 4: I mean, like, Samuel L. Jackson, whenever he's on screen,
• 43:29
  Speaker 4: the movie is awesome, but some of the scenes where
• 43:32
  Speaker 4: he's not in it, it's like, yeah, this movie's kind
• 43:34
  Speaker 4: of dragging a little bit, anyway, he's way overrated, for sure, like,
• 43:41
  Speaker 4: he's like, I don't know, he's like the hipster opinion,
• 43:44
  Speaker 4: it seems, where everybody's like.
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: You don't like Tarantino, like, look at how I don't know.
• 43:49
  Speaker 3: What's even the argument? I don't know.
• 43:51
  Speaker 4: People seem to think that he's some genius, and they
• 43:54
  Speaker 4: put him up on this pedestal. I'm like, nah. He's
• 43:59
  Speaker 4: got some all right movies. That's pretty much the extent
• 44:02
  Speaker 4: of it. Some of the characters are good, for sure,
• 44:06
  Speaker 4: especially in the movies that I mentioned that are actually good.
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: That's going to do it. Peace.
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: somebody answer, let somebody know.
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: You do not have to lose this round alone. Hold on, hold.
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: On, not tonight.
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: Not now.
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: Hold on. Hold on. Let me pull you out. That
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: bad luck bites hard, but it don't get the crown.
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: Hold on. Hold on, stay with me now Hold on,
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: hold on You're still here now