Latest / Kenny Wallace Media / We Answer Your St. Louis Cardinals Questions!

Transcript

We Answer Your St. Louis Cardinals Questions! · Kenny Wallace Media

• 0:00
  What's up everybody? I'm Charlie Marlowe.
• 0:02
  That's Brendan Schaefer. This is low hanging fruit.
• 0:05
  I think it's Episode 4. I'll check on that.
• 0:08
  But Brendan, it's the time of year.
• 0:10
  Yeah, let's let's be honest, it's the time of year where
• 0:14
  there ain't much going on. We need spring training to
• 0:17
  happen. We need pitchers and catchers to
• 0:19
  report. I'm not going to talk about Matt
• 0:21
  Carpenter, the 26th man on the roster for the 87th straight
• 0:24
  day. So we decided, let's do a
• 0:26
  mailbag. I put it out there on Twitter,
• 0:28
  Brendan. And man, we got a lot of a lot
• 0:31
  of responses, a lot of questions, a lot of comments.
• 0:34
  It's good to see. Yeah.
• 0:36
  And and you know we're we're a little starved for content.
• 0:38
  So we're appreciative of of people kind of reaching out some
• 0:41
  of the comments, pretty humorous, but we kind of said,
• 0:44
  hey, one-size-fits-all, we're going to go through all of these
• 0:47
  and maybe some of them will be able to pontificate upon a
• 0:50
  little more than others. But I I think everybody that
• 0:52
  kind of chimed in is going to going to have their voice heard.
• 0:54
  So that'll be good. Yes, I'm going to.
• 0:57
  I'm going to probably read all of them.
• 0:59
  I'm starting at the bottom because it's easier for me as I
• 1:01
  scroll backwards on Twitter. So here we go.
• 1:04
  Boom. This is just, I haven't done any
• 1:05
  research. Shocking.
• 1:07
  I didn't even edit any of them out.
• 1:08
  I'm just, I'm going to read them.
• 1:09
  Unless they're just awful. So there's nothing against.
• 1:12
  Hopefully, but I I think people were pretty respectful.
• 1:16
  I will skip, I'll skip the bad ones, and I don't think any of
• 1:18
  them were that first one. Nothing I saw was.
• 1:21
  Yeah, OK. From Billiken, Kevin N right out
• 1:25
  of the gate. When does Ollie get fired?
• 1:27
  Time to move on. He has no leadership skills.
• 1:30
  Brendan, that's the question or comment.
• 1:32
  Go ahead. This is going to be a long show,
• 1:34
  isn't it? So I think we've kind of touched
• 1:36
  a little bit on that of like this year matters and it matters
• 1:40
  not only for Ollie but for John Mosalak and and kind of the the
• 1:44
  build of the roster and the the direction of the payroll.
• 1:46
  Like I think it matters in a lot of ways.
• 1:49
  Would Ollie get fired if they have another repeat of April?
• 1:53
  Like they go 10 and 19? I don't know.
• 1:55
  Maybe they would be pretty aggressive in that regard.
• 1:57
  I feel like though, even if it's a rudderless ship middle of the
• 2:02
  season, you still get a few months to kind of ease your way
• 2:05
  in. But then let's say they're not
• 2:07
  dreadful, but they're not great. They're kind of somewhere in the
• 2:11
  middle. I think you let that season play
• 2:13
  out, you let his contract play out.
• 2:15
  And then it's not like if they've made the decision that,
• 2:17
  hey, we're going to move on from Ollie Marmel because you win 80
• 2:20
  games and it's just kind of a middle of the pack type of year
• 2:23
  for the Cardinals. I think it's a lot easier to do
• 2:25
  that after the season and say, hey, we let this contract play
• 2:28
  out last couple of seasons didn't go the way we wanted and
• 2:31
  maybe we're going to move in a new direction.
• 2:33
  I I think short of a a winning season, that's probably the
• 2:37
  result, at least in my opinion. Charlie, I'm not sure how you
• 2:40
  see it. It's just it feels like it's
• 2:41
  easier to do with a guy when he doesn't have a long term
• 2:44
  contract. You're not actively firing him
• 2:46
  so much as you are. Hey, thanks for your service,
• 2:48
  but maybe we're not renewing your deal if this season doesn't
• 2:51
  go the right direction. Yeah, I think it makes sense
• 2:54
  that the Cardinals have done what they're doing right now.
• 2:57
  Ali does not deserve to be fired yet.
• 3:00
  I I think that's fair to say he does not deserve to get an
• 3:02
  extension. He had one good year.
• 3:04
  He had one really bad year. Let's prove it in year three and
• 3:08
  maybe you'll appreciate this analogy.
• 3:10
  But I think about it kind of like the way I thought about Eli
• 3:13
  Drinkowitz in football. Mizzou football entering last
• 3:16
  fall. Eli Drinkowitz, I think
• 3:18
  surprised people in 2020. COVID had a nice year, mediocre
• 3:23
  after that, and it was basically prove it.
• 3:25
  You know, I think it was fair to say entering Mizzou's football
• 3:28
  season in 2023 that Eli Drinquist does not deserve to be
• 3:32
  fired. But he also, at this point
• 3:34
  doesn't deserve a big time extension.
• 3:35
  Prove it. He did that.
• 3:37
  He absolutely did that. Now he deserves the extension.
• 3:40
  Huge season. Ollie has the same opportunity.
• 3:43
  I think that's fair. If Ollie has a nice year, he
• 3:45
  gets the extension. He deserves it.
• 3:46
  If they have a really bad year, he's gone.
• 3:49
  As we've talked about a couple times, if he has that middle
• 3:51
  year, 84 wins, no playoffs, that's when it gets interesting.
• 3:54
  What What do you think would happen in that event?
• 3:56
  Like 84 specifically. Let's say 86 is the last wild
• 4:00
  card Cardinals Fall two games short.
• 4:02
  You've got Yadier Molina kind of lurking around because everybody
• 4:05
  knows he wants to be a big league manager.
• 4:08
  And unsurprisingly he wasn't necessarily ready to take the
• 4:11
  time away from his family and and and the other things he
• 4:14
  wants to do in retirement to be part of the full time staff this
• 4:18
  year said yeah I'll get involved but you know it's it's going to
• 4:20
  kind of be on my terms. I think for a manager role he'd
• 4:23
  be ready to take that leap because that comes with more
• 4:26
  cachet, more power, more responsibility and I think he
• 4:29
  would probably welcome that. But what do you think happens at
• 4:32
  84 wins? Do the Cardinals make that move
• 4:34
  or is 84 enough to say, hey, we played all right and Ollie
• 4:37
  Marble is a guy that we still believe in.
• 4:39
  It's impossible to say, but I'm curious if you have a take on
• 4:42
  what you predict would happen in that case.
• 4:45
  I really don't have a great answer because the Cardinals are
• 4:48
  so measured in what they do. I think other franchises would
• 4:52
  for sure fire Alley. The Cardinals are maybe one of
• 4:56
  the few that wouldn't but the Yachty Descalzo piece changes
• 5:01
  the conversation. I I don't have a great answer.
• 5:03
  You know, we we have talked about this before.
• 5:05
  I'm not I'm not trying to move on, I don't know.
• 5:08
  But that's the that's the great question that we're going to
• 5:11
  basically tackle as the year goes on.
• 5:12
  Hopefully the Cardinals are really good.
• 5:14
  We don't have to worry about it. I don't want to wish for them
• 5:16
  being bad, but for content, it's almost better to just be right
• 5:19
  in the middle and be boring. You sly dog.
• 5:22
  Just don't be boring, is all I'm saying.
• 5:24
  I think that's fair. I think that's fair.
• 5:25
  I'll. I'll go ahead and answer it
• 5:26
  though since you kind of were wishy washy.
• 5:28
  I I think if the Cardinals win 84 games and I am probably
• 5:33
  people that that listen to my content to read my content
• 5:35
  probably think that I'm more on the pro Ollie side than than
• 5:39
  neutral. But I think what the Cardinals
• 5:41
  would do short of a playoff appearance is they'd frame it as
• 5:46
  we're just moving on. I think they would move on from
• 5:48
  Ollie short of a playoff appearance, right or wrong,
• 5:51
  whether I do it or not isn't the question.
• 5:52
  I think the Cardinals would. I think they're they're going to
• 5:55
  sense that appetite from the fan base that hey, we need to do
• 5:57
  something more substantive if if we're going to continue to sell.
• 6:01
  The organization is moving in the right direction.
• 6:04
  I would lean towards that as well.
• 6:05
  I'm going to go, let's say 5545 or 6040.
• 6:08
  I agree with you on that. OK.
• 6:10
  Next question, Jeff Younger. When will the Cardinals acquire
• 6:14
  A stud left-handed batter? Why do the Cardinals let the
• 6:17
  switch hitters continue to make outs from the left side of the
• 6:20
  plate? And I was just, I'll start
• 6:21
  quick. I mean Nolan Gorman, I know he's
• 6:24
  a little banged up. Brendan Donovan, Lars, Newt Bar,
• 6:28
  you got the switch hitters, you got Alec Burleson.
• 6:30
  Hey, we got Matt Carpenter now by the way.
• 6:32
  I mean, the Cardinals have a lot of left-handed pop, right?
• 6:36
  I mean, some of those guys need to prove it and be healthy, but
• 6:38
  there's a lot of guys there that have big potential in my
• 6:40
  opinion. I think Gorman, definitely from
• 6:43
  the pop perspective, like he's a power hitter, large new bar I
• 6:46
  think is a more complete hitter. He'll take his walks.
• 6:49
  He'll hit for for double s power.
• 6:51
  How many home runs he'll hit maybe is a question.
• 6:53
  But that's those are two guys that you feel good about
• 6:55
  anchoring. I think more toward when I think
• 6:57
  of the middle of the line up like 2 through 6, you could put
• 7:00
  them in spots and feel good about the production that
• 7:03
  they'll give in those spots. Donovan more of an on base guy.
• 7:06
  He'll he showed a little pop last year as well.
• 7:08
  So I think that's a fair characterization.
• 7:10
  But I also do see room for a left-handed power threat that
• 7:15
  could play center field, a guy who could mass right-handed
• 7:18
  pitching and play center field. Because when we say switch
• 7:21
  hitters, really we're talking about the two guys at the
• 7:24
  Cardinals are sort of pigeonholing into that center
• 7:26
  field battle this year, Tommy Ebben and Dylan Carlson.
• 7:29
  The problem is they're both better as right-handed hitters
• 7:33
  against left-handed pitching. They have the same kind of
• 7:35
  splits dynamic and and they don't complement one another
• 7:38
  well from a plate profile perspective.
• 7:41
  It'd be nice if they, and I'm just going to say the name that
• 7:43
  he's not going to sign with the Cardinals.
• 7:45
  The Cardinals aren't going to pursue him at the price.
• 7:47
  But I've said for two years, I think Cody Bellinger, in terms
• 7:50
  of what he does on the field, you drop him into this roster
• 7:54
  and it would make every the line up with Bellinger you'd be able
• 7:57
  to do all the the right, left, right, left kind of stuff that
• 7:59
  you want. And I I think it would be a
• 8:02
  really deep line up. I know that's not the way that
• 8:04
  they're going to going to approach things because the
• 8:06
  offseason began with him wanting 200 million.
• 8:08
  I don't think he'll get that. He's still unsigned for for some
• 8:11
  reason. So I doubt he gets that.
• 8:12
  But it's going to be a a sizable contract.
• 8:15
  I don't think the Cardinals are in the market for that.
• 8:17
  And then they would look at it and say, well, what do we do
• 8:18
  with Dylan Carlson and Tommy? Well, you could have traded one
• 8:21
  of those guys and if you were going to be aggressive, you
• 8:23
  could have done all these things.
• 8:24
  That's a move that I think would be really compelling.
• 8:28
  It never will happen in a million years.
• 8:29
  To answer the the question from the the, the, the, the listener,
• 8:32
  I just don't. I just don't think the Cardinals
• 8:34
  are going down that road. No chance.
• 8:37
  And also, isn't it funny what will they do with Dylan Carlson?
• 8:40
  And now it's Dylan Carlson's, the 4th outfielder.
• 8:43
  You know, we a couple years ago, we're like, what's going to
• 8:45
  happen with Dylan Carlson? And now the question is like,
• 8:47
  well, it's Dylan Carlson. He's a fourth outfielder.
• 8:50
  Or we'll see what happens. Doesn't it feel like he's almost
• 8:53
  on? He's on the Tyler O'Neal track
• 8:55
  one year ahead with the distinction being that last year
• 8:58
  they told Tyler O'Neill like, you get your every opportunity
• 9:01
  to prove that that you still belong here and then he, you
• 9:03
  know, he failed at that and they traded him for for Peanuts.
• 9:06
  Carlson, they're basically like, yeah, you might play some.
• 9:10
  We'll see. Like there's no guarantees for
• 9:12
  Carlson's playing time in like, I like Dylan Carlson.
• 9:15
  I was a big supporter of his last year.
• 9:17
  I'm not predicting big things from him this year because I
• 9:19
  think he's behind the 8 ball before they even go down the
• 9:22
  spring. It's not really fair to him, but
• 9:23
  from like a a standpoint of hey guys being told that you're our
• 9:27
  guy and getting a chance, he's not really being told that right
• 9:30
  now and I don't know what kind of impact that's going to have
• 9:32
  on his psyche. I hope I am wrong because I
• 9:34
  really like the guy. I I like him as a player, I like
• 9:37
  his skill set, but I think it's going to be difficult for him to
• 9:39
  maximize himself in the role that is at least plotted out for
• 9:42
  him. As of today, I'm.
• 9:44
  Going to call an audible and and briefly go away from the
• 9:48
  comments for a second because you mentioned Tyler O'Neill.
• 9:51
  Did you happen to watch the interview of Tyler O'Neill on
• 9:54
  foul territory? No, I missed it.
• 9:56
  Recap it. For me.
• 9:57
  OK. So basically I want to say it's
• 10:00
  about 20 minutes. It was maybe five days ago.
• 10:04
  So folks, if you want to go back, foul territory, the show
• 10:06
  with AJ Brzezinski and those guys, they have, you know,
• 10:08
  former players on the show and they have a bunch of them.
• 10:11
  They get all the players. So just recapping for anybody
• 10:14
  that didn't see it. Now Tyler O'Neill was very
• 10:18
  professional. He did not.
• 10:21
  I would not say at all he threw Ali Marmol under the bus.
• 10:23
  But AJ Brzezinski asked him a couple questions about
• 10:26
  everything that happened last year.
• 10:27
  And AJ said, look man, I think I'd have reacted.
• 10:30
  I'd have been really mad about that, blah blah blah, blah.
• 10:32
  And so Tyler O'Neal says, yeah, I think I handled it the right
• 10:35
  way in the moment. He basically said that their
• 10:39
  relationship evolved into, and I think the exact quote was
• 10:44
  respect at arm's length, which is, which is not a lot.
• 10:49
  I mean look clearly I don't love the dude.
• 10:51
  He doesn't love me but he is my manager.
• 10:53
  I'm a player respect at arm's length.
• 10:55
  Then there was a follow up question where again this is
• 10:58
  very subtle and and the question was about you know Tyler what
• 11:02
  did you do in 2021 when you had your big year 8th and the MVP
• 11:05
  and all that and and Tyler O'Neill did make and I can't
• 11:08
  remember the exact way the question was asked so people go
• 11:11
  I'm not trying to mischaracterize it.
• 11:13
  He said something about the fact that the culture and the
• 11:17
  leadership that year was so great.
• 11:19
  Remember, that was 2021. That's the year they go on the
• 11:21
  17 game-winning streak. That's Mike Shield as the
• 11:24
  manager. It's very subtle.
• 11:26
  I'm not trying to start something out of nothing, but if
• 11:29
  folks go watch that, there are a couple little subtle digs of
• 11:33
  Tyler O'Neill giving his perspective on the situation
• 11:37
  with Ollie Moore Mole, which I think is very interesting, but
• 11:40
  it wasn't earth shattering. But if you're a Cardinals fan,
• 11:42
  you should watch it. Yeah.
• 11:43
  And I think when it comes to like the culture conversations
• 11:46
  and the little Nuggets that are dropped here and there, the
• 11:49
  immediate draw is going to be Schilt V Ollie.
• 11:52
  Like that's what the fan base is going to see and think about.
• 11:55
  And when they're hearing these comments, I I It could be deeper
• 11:58
  than that, though, right? And not so much as, like deeper
• 12:01
  as there's a really big rift there that we didn't uncover.
• 12:04
  But like, you know, I do think and and we hate to always go
• 12:08
  back to it, but you think about Yadier Molina.
• 12:10
  Yadier Molina was sort of like the captain of the clubhouse for
• 12:13
  a long, long time. And he was there in 21, wasn't
• 12:17
  there this past year. And so did the clubhouse Did.
• 12:20
  Did that ripple effect have such an impact that the dynamic was
• 12:23
  just different in there? I don't know.
• 12:25
  Maybe that's giving too much credit to one guy, but I think
• 12:28
  there are probably some other distinctions as well.
• 12:30
  You can think about leadership as well in terms of the coaching
• 12:33
  staff, right? You may not love Jeff Albert as
• 12:35
  a Cardinal fan. You may have wanted him gone.
• 12:37
  You got your wish. You you may have had your
• 12:39
  varying thoughts about, you know, Mike Maddox isn't
• 12:41
  maximizing the staff, but it was a more green coaching staff top
• 12:45
  to bottom with a new bench coach as well that you know, was was
• 12:49
  kind of thrust in last minute. So like you can make some other
• 12:52
  comparisons to 21 versus 23 that were different that weren't just
• 12:56
  the manager, but kind of knowing how Tyler felt.
• 12:59
  I think he was relatively candid if he used that term, respected
• 13:02
  arm's length. But at the same time, you know,
• 13:04
  you can kind of get a feel for maybe just where he would have
• 13:07
  been. And when your manager kind of
• 13:09
  undresses you within the first week of the season to to get the
• 13:12
  respected arm's length quote is probably about the best you're
• 13:15
  you're going to hear as a result of that 'cause that was an
• 13:17
  awkward forward time and nobody wanted it to be that way.
• 13:20
  But once that cat was out of the bag, it it sort of probably did
• 13:23
  at least for those two individuals have an impact on on
• 13:26
  the way they were going to rebuild the relationship the
• 13:28
  rest of the year. Yeah, I think it was fair and
• 13:31
  true. But if you're having a beer with
• 13:33
  Tyler O'Neill, is he going to use different language?
• 13:36
  Probably, but he was a professional in this setting.
• 13:39
  All right, next question. I'll just throw it right to you.
• 13:41
  This is from Geebers 99. Should the Cardinals trade for
• 13:44
  Manoa? Alec Manoa.
• 13:47
  Yeah, pending the price. I think so.
• 13:49
  But so with these questions, it's difficult because until a
• 13:52
  guy is actually traded, it's it's hard to say what his value
• 13:56
  is to the Blue Jays, right? Like if they if they keep him,
• 13:59
  that tells you that. I'm sure they were willing to
• 14:02
  move in this offseason, but because they haven't, it's like
• 14:05
  they probably haven't gotten the offers they were looking for or
• 14:07
  they they maybe view this guy's upside as being a little bit
• 14:12
  more worthwhile than the the the players that are coming in in in
• 14:15
  terms of trade. So I think to contextualize it,
• 14:18
  you'd have to almost throw out a name like would you do Burleson
• 14:22
  for Manoa if you were John Jose Locke?
• 14:25
  I don't know that that's an option for them, but you look at
• 14:28
  like the way they've stocked up on first base slash outfield
• 14:30
  types and left-handed hitters. You just rattle off a bunch of
• 14:33
  them. Is that a trade that could burn
• 14:35
  you? If Manoa is just completely
• 14:37
  broken and we haven't seen the best of Burley yet and he's got
• 14:40
  so much team control attached, perhaps.
• 14:43
  But like the upside of what if you get a a capable starter who
• 14:46
  can strike out 200 guys? Like what if you fix him?
• 14:49
  So like if if that's the range you're talking about, it's one
• 14:52
  thing if the Blue Jays say, you know we really need Tommy
• 14:54
  Edmond, we really need Brennan Donovan.
• 14:56
  You're like, all right, no wonder this guy hasn't been
• 14:57
  traded. I don't know if that is a a fair
• 14:59
  way to answer the question, but it's always kind of within the
• 15:02
  context of, well, what's it going to cost you.
• 15:05
  By the way, what's is it? Sagisi.
• 15:07
  Sagisi. Sagisi.
• 15:09
  Thomas the JC Yes, Sir. Thomas the JC OK, so Luke McGill
• 15:13
  asks. Or this is actually more of a
• 15:15
  statement, says Carp. Comes back with a fury, earns
• 15:18
  ABS, hits 20 dingers, so JC. So JC performs so well he gets
• 15:24
  called up. Gibson, Gray, Mats and Lynn are
• 15:26
  better than advertised. 200 innings for Miles Goldie and the
• 15:29
  Nolans go 27030 bombs and 90 RBI.
• 15:33
  Sell 3,000,000 ticks. Again, I agree with that one
• 15:36
  playoff appearance. So real quick going through that
• 15:39
  Carp comes back, I think he'll have a decent year.
• 15:42
  I'll I'll go under on the 20 dingers.
• 15:44
  I think a lot of this sounds optimistic, just.
• 15:47
  Off the off the jump, it's very optimistic.
• 15:49
  I I could see. I could see Lynn, I could see
• 15:53
  Matt. These guys just have to stay
• 15:55
  healthy. But Sunny Gray.
• 15:57
  I could actually see Sunny Gray coming back a bit.
• 16:00
  But that still means a good year.
• 16:01
  I mean, he had his best years ever with the Twins, the the
• 16:05
  Nolans. I mean going 27030 and 90, I
• 16:08
  could see all three of those guys.
• 16:10
  Goldie's probably more of like a 25 Homer guy.
• 16:13
  To be fair, he. Runs into him, he could run.
• 16:16
  Into Yeah, he does what? What did he have?
• 16:19
  OK, Goldie, what did he have the last couple of years?
• 16:21
  I know he had 36. The one year with the
• 16:23
  Diamondbacks. I'll look that up.
• 16:26
  You can go ahead and respond while I look that up.
• 16:28
  Well, what's the question? Is there a question or is it
• 16:30
  just? More.
• 16:30
  It's more of a statement. It was more of a an and it was
• 16:33
  more of a very positive statement of Luke McGill
• 16:36
  thinking the Cardinals are going to be pretty Dang good this
• 16:38
  year. OK yeah I mean and and for
• 16:40
  Goldie, he hit 25 this past year.
• 16:42
  His MVP year was only 2022. Two years ago he hit 35 home
• 16:47
  runs had 115. RB is I don't really care about
• 16:50
  his batting average. I I'm more you know what's the
• 16:52
  on base what's the slug going to be.
• 16:54
  He went from a 981 OPS to 810. I think you need him back around
• 16:59
  875 or more and you could feel pretty good about that.
• 17:02
  Arenado I think was actually sub 800 this past year.
• 17:05
  He needs to be closer to 850. Again, I look at OPS more so
• 17:09
  than batting average. If you're just trying to give
• 17:11
  like one simple stat because Ed, this guy get on base, does he
• 17:13
  slug combine him, What's that look like?
• 17:16
  850 for Arenado who feels like a good goal.
• 17:19
  I don't think Carpenter has that kind of year.
• 17:21
  Like of all the things that were were kind of mentioned there by
• 17:23
  Luke. I think that's the one where I
• 17:25
  would pump the brakes on. I could see CJC having another
• 17:28
  great start to AAA and then the Cardinals by mid season saying,
• 17:32
  you know when there's an injury, somebody goes on the 15 day,
• 17:35
  Gorman's back, you know he needs a, he needs a quick IL stint,
• 17:39
  CJC comes up and maybe just stays the rest of the way.
• 17:41
  If he performs like, I could see that as somewhat plausible.
• 17:44
  Let me ask you about the starting pitching angle on that.
• 17:47
  You kind of mentioned maybe a step back for Gray compared to
• 17:49
  what he just did, but that's still pretty good because he was
• 17:51
  a Cy Young candidate in the AL. Let me compare Lynn with Gibson
• 17:57
  to who has The Who has the higher upside to you for for
• 18:01
  what you expect this coming season.
• 18:03
  But does that same guy also have the higher floor?
• 18:06
  Because I would say one's got the floor, but one's got the
• 18:09
  upside and they're different. So I'm guessing you're saying
• 18:12
  that Gibson's floor is higher and Lance Lynn's ceiling is
• 18:16
  higher. And I also think coming off last
• 18:18
  year Lance Lynn was was so bad especially with the White Sox
• 18:23
  that if he cleans a a few things up it's not difficult for Lance
• 18:26
  Lynn to have a much better year. Now with Kyle Gibson I'm not
• 18:30
  going to focus on the win loss record which was really good.
• 18:32
  I'll I'll focus with pitchers more on ERA and innings.
• 18:36
  I think Kyle Gibson will probably have a similar year,
• 18:40
  maybe not as many wins. I think Lance Lynn could have a
• 18:44
  much better year. Still a lot of strikeouts, but
• 18:47
  bringing that ERA down to the to the to the four type range
• 18:52
  hopefully. And if it's 4, 1/2, whatever.
• 18:55
  I can just see him having a nice bounce back year, not giving up
• 18:58
  nearly as many home runs at Busch Stadium.
• 19:01
  And he's still struck out more than a batter per inning last
• 19:04
  year. Now, a lot of that did come with
• 19:05
  the White Sox. It's kind of weird.
• 19:07
  And it was a question I asked him at Winter warm up because I
• 19:09
  was curious about the switch. Like, did the Dodgers ask him to
• 19:12
  do some things differently? Because when you look, his ERA
• 19:16
  was better with LA, but he also hardly struck out anybody.
• 19:20
  And I think they sort of you know from the answer he gave,
• 19:22
  they sort of maybe had a track that they thought hey, you could
• 19:25
  be successful here in the short term.
• 19:27
  They they just kind of wanted him to to get them through some
• 19:29
  innings because the Dodgers were having a lot of trouble with
• 19:32
  with their their rotation and and injuries in that stuff.
• 19:35
  So I think what you saw with the Dodgers isn't exactly who he's
• 19:39
  going to be this year. What you saw with the White Sox
• 19:41
  isn't exactly who he's going to be.
• 19:42
  But if he's able to sort of compile the best of both worlds,
• 19:45
  which is what he had done for many, many seasons prior, like
• 19:48
  he's never had a bad year like the one he just had.
• 19:51
  So if that was an anomaly and we can point to the White Sox just
• 19:54
  being an absolute, you know what I mean?
• 19:57
  It was just terrible. Talk to the cat last week about
• 20:00
  this on on Hot Tech Central where he said some things he
• 20:02
  heard about that Chicago team. And you kind of saw when he was
• 20:05
  trying to, you know, get an interview with Joe Kelly just
• 20:07
  over the course of a weekend just saw it didn't look right.
• 20:10
  And so it would make a lot of sense that Lance Lynn has some
• 20:13
  upside to be like more than just.
• 20:15
  People lump Gibson and Lynn in the same category, and I would
• 20:18
  make the case that they're not the same, even though they
• 20:20
  signed a similar contract. Lynn's got upside to to regain
• 20:23
  the status of like a #2 or #3. Gibson's going to be your #5,
• 20:27
  but I think you can rely upon him to do so.
• 20:29
  There's not a floor that's going to drop out on Gibson.
• 20:31
  He's been pretty steady over the course of his career.
• 20:35
  And so people know I also like to cite FIP.
• 20:38
  With the White Sox, Lance Lynn's ERA was 6.47, but his FIP was
• 20:44
  5.19, so almost a 1 1/2 ish lower.
• 20:49
  With the Dodgers, his ERA was 4.36, but his fifth was what,
• 20:54
  6.16? So some of those behind the
• 20:57
  scenes numbers were actually worse with the Dodgers, even
• 21:00
  though his ERA was better. When you basically throw them
• 21:02
  together, 5.73 ERA for the year and a 5.53 fifth, which is
• 21:08
  pretty pretty much the same. But again, I think he can drop
• 21:13
  that down a full run. So maybe he's saying four, maybe
• 21:16
  4 is too aggressive, I don't know.
• 21:18
  But if he's at if he's at 4 1/2 if his if his stats end on a
• 21:22
  quality start which is 6 innings, three runs earned, 4
• 21:26
  1/2. Cardinals fans, I think, would
• 21:28
  love that if he can throw 180. Innings.
• 21:30
  How important do you think the quality start is to the
• 21:32
  Cardinals this year? Because I know Ben Fred with the
• 21:35
  Post Dispatch wrote an article where he sort of cited that.
• 21:37
  And it's always kind of the elephant in the room when you
• 21:39
  ask the Cardinals about it because you don't want they're
• 21:43
  they're they're the factions of baseball fans who with
• 21:45
  particular stats, they look at it and they get a little bit
• 21:48
  fixated on it. And so to ask a member of the
• 21:51
  Cardinals, hey, how important is a quality starter for you guys
• 21:54
  all they would say, look we don't look at how many quality
• 21:57
  starts did we log because it's kind of a random like who
• 22:00
  decided that 6 innings and three or fewer runs is is what
• 22:04
  qualifies for this number. But like, if you look at just
• 22:07
  the nature of what that would mean for the team, if they're
• 22:10
  getting more six and three type of performances from spots 3-4
• 22:14
  and five in their rotation, that I think would actually mean a
• 22:18
  lot to the Cardinals this year with the way that they're built.
• 22:20
  You kind of see that being it being the case for this year's
• 22:23
  team. Yeah, and by the way, so I don't
• 22:26
  have the numbers on this, but I, I listen to Bernie Nicholas on
• 22:28
  590 The Fan a lot, and he's also been talking about this a lot
• 22:32
  and he's cited the numbers and it's not just with the
• 22:34
  Cardinals, but it's across Major League Baseball.
• 22:36
  So I don't have them exactly, but it's one of those things
• 22:39
  where your team win loss record is amazing when you get a
• 22:43
  quality start. And I think sometimes we focus
• 22:45
  on the quality start being, oh, it's 6 innings, 3 earned runs,
• 22:49
  but all of the great starts are also in there in the quality
• 22:52
  starts. So, and it also gets back to our
• 22:55
  conversation we had last year about Wayno.
• 22:57
  Look, if you're going 6, even if you're allowing 3, you're
• 23:02
  setting up your bullpen real nice.
• 23:04
  Like to have that law firm of 789, whoever it is in a given
• 23:09
  year to come in and do their roles.
• 23:11
  You're not asking for more. You're not asking for guys
• 23:15
  usually to go multiple innings. It's not just the six innings
• 23:19
  and three are in runs. It's you're in the game, you're
• 23:21
  pitching well, you're going pretty deep by today's standards
• 23:24
  and you're allowing the bullpen guys to have nice, easy roles
• 23:29
  they can get used to. And I think that's why it
• 23:31
  matters. And it's not like a perfect
• 23:33
  overly analytical type of stat to just go, yeah, six and three
• 23:37
  feels about right for what we're going to call a quality start.
• 23:40
  And so that's why, you know, the new age baseball folk in the
• 23:43
  Cardinals, you know, they do look at analytics and things
• 23:45
  like that. So quality start is not
• 23:47
  something that they probably measure specifically and say,
• 23:50
  hey, we want this to be the goal that rack up as many as we can.
• 23:53
  But from like take a step back, it's OK to take a a more
• 23:56
  simplistic view and say if you do those things, everything else
• 24:00
  does fall into place. So maybe it's not what they're
• 24:02
  chasing, but they signed the type of pitchers that are going
• 24:05
  to potentially be able to give them a good number of those
• 24:08
  things. So I think that it does.
• 24:10
  It's not like a predictive stat, But for this year's team, it
• 24:13
  feels like the way they're building themselves to do
• 24:15
  exactly what you said. Take a little pressure off the
• 24:17
  bullpen, allow the guys that they use to have a chance to
• 24:20
  close out the game. And it can be in a win.
• 24:22
  Because if you've got the lineup that you think is going to be
• 24:24
  top ten, top eight, top five, you're probably getting the four
• 24:28
  runs in a game most of the time. And so you can win some four to
• 24:31
  three, five to four types of games that way.
• 24:33
  And that's the way they're kind of building themselves in like
• 24:36
  the best version of what happens this year.
• 24:39
  And here's a good example. I think you could see Giovanni
• 24:42
  Gallegos, who I actually think is underrated, even though he
• 24:44
  had a bad year last year. Overall, he's been really good
• 24:48
  for the Cardinals. And I think with him a lot of it
• 24:50
  comes down to usage. And I think Giovanni Gallegos
• 24:54
  will be much better and more like pre 2023 Geo if he doesn't
• 24:59
  have to pitch as much. And if folks like Gibson and
• 25:03
  Lynn and Miles and Matz, whoever, if they can go deeper,
• 25:07
  let's just say that's a that's an appearance every two weeks.
• 25:11
  Let's say that Geo doesn't have to throw.
• 25:13
  That matters over the course of 162.
• 25:16
  It does. And and what's interesting too
• 25:18
  about that is we we talked about Ryan Helsley and just attached
• 25:21
  to his name is just this reputation for oh, he doesn't
• 25:24
  want to pitch as much, he doesn't want to go back-to-back
• 25:26
  And these things that I think sometimes he gets painted in an
• 25:29
  unfair light like the Cardinals maybe do need more consistency
• 25:31
  from him or durability from him. But that's sort of the narrative
• 25:34
  that surrounds him. But Gio is the type that like
• 25:37
  me, I'll take the ball every day and sometimes I'll get whacked
• 25:40
  because of it. But like now people say, oh Gio
• 25:43
  stinks because his ERA is hiring.
• 25:46
  It's the same thing. It's just two, two sides of the
• 25:48
  same coin and everybody's going to look better if they aren't
• 25:51
  needing to go to those guys with such frequency.
• 25:54
  And and it and it has a trickle down effect on the bullpen too.
• 25:57
  Because if you're getting through 6 instead of four,
• 25:59
  whoever that guy is that would have to eat up the meaningless
• 26:03
  middle innings of a game. That guy's now going to be
• 26:06
  available the next day too and maybe more of a of a levergy
• 26:09
  role and you it just makes everybody better.
• 26:12
  And I think that's the way the Cardinals are building
• 26:14
  themselves. Whether it will work, we're
• 26:15
  going to have to find out. But it like that's their plan.
• 26:18
  That's the process of how they see it playing out in a perfect.
• 26:21
  World OK, moving on here, Let's see, Johnny McClain asks on
• 26:25
  Twitter. Where is the offense going to
• 26:27
  come from? The outfield is stacking up to
• 26:29
  be below average. Win will be gloved first and
• 26:32
  Donnie has to prove he's healthy.
• 26:34
  Plus, Arenado and Goldie are on the wrong side of 30 and coming
• 26:37
  off down years. OK, I'll just say before I throw
• 26:40
  to you, this is the second winter in a row where I'm
• 26:44
  telling people I'm not worried about the offense.
• 26:45
  I'm just not. I'm not worried about the
• 26:47
  offense. I think the offense it was, it
• 26:50
  was trending decent last year. It ended up with poor numbers.
• 26:55
  You also had a lot of down years and injuries.
• 26:58
  I think the Cardinals will have a top ten ish offense if you're
• 27:01
  looking at OPS, which is a number we both look at.
• 27:04
  I'm not worried about the offense personally, but what do
• 27:06
  you think about what Johnny McLean said?
• 27:08
  And I think it's interesting too, when you look at last year
• 27:10
  like the cumulative numbers aren't going to look that good
• 27:13
  because they had a full month at the end where if you had a
• 27:15
  hangnail you were on the IL to end the year.
• 27:18
  Like they the the guys they had running out to help accumulate
• 27:21
  those numbers the last few weeks are not going to be contributing
• 27:24
  to this year's team. So I think the offense can be OK
• 27:28
  too. But let's kind of lay out why we
• 27:30
  might think that when you look at the corners, start with
• 27:32
  Goldie and Arenado better or worse than last year for those
• 27:36
  two guys, or maybe about the same as my cat and joins the
• 27:39
  show in the background. I love it.
• 27:41
  I would say Goldie for sure better.
• 27:46
  I have to look at Arenado's numbers.
• 27:50
  I think he'll be better. I think Nolan will be better.
• 27:53
  I think they'll both be, let's just say 5 to 15% better.
• 27:58
  Ish. I think that's fair.
• 27:59
  Arenado finished with a 774 OPS outside of the COVID year, which
• 28:04
  was his final year with the Rockies.
• 28:06
  That's the lowest year of his career going back to his rookie
• 28:09
  year when he was lower. Like I think Arenado kind of got
• 28:12
  swept up a little bit in the pressure of we got to win five
• 28:15
  games today so we can make it up in the standings.
• 28:18
  He he constantly said he wasn't looking at the standings and yet
• 28:20
  always knew exactly where the Cardinals were in the standings.
• 28:23
  So I feel like he put a lot of pressure on himself and and felt
• 28:26
  like he had to be the guy to do it all and that weighed on him.
• 28:28
  He didn't hit a home run what like one home run the last month
• 28:31
  and 1/2 or something. He really kind of fell off the
• 28:34
  pace. I think he'll be a renewed guy
• 28:36
  in a renewed clubhouse this year.
• 28:39
  Mentioned Donovan. But let me go where I think it's
• 28:41
  interesting. Jordan Walker, you think he goes
• 28:43
  up this year? I think he does naturally
• 28:45
  because he is was a rookie last year and he gets a little better
• 28:48
  new bar. What do you think he does
• 28:50
  compared to last year? I think you can expect about the
• 28:52
  same, but there's maybe some room for growth as well.
• 28:56
  Yeah. And and by the way, so I I think
• 28:59
  Arenado, yeah like a 10% he was a one O 9 OPS plus and this is
• 29:04
  where too like sometimes I forget Goldie's OPS was 120 so
• 29:07
  that was better than IOPS plus. Plus.
• 29:09
  Yeah, was better. So here's, here's a good, good
• 29:12
  deal. This is where it helps because I
• 29:13
  don't have a good memory. I was doing a video the other
• 29:15
  day about about war and this. Believe me, I'm going to answer
• 29:18
  your question. I was going through the players
• 29:21
  and I was kind of thinking in my head, what kind of year did they
• 29:23
  have? What was their war?
• 29:25
  It surprised me. Lars Newbar's WAR last year was
• 29:28
  3.3 Brendan and he played 117 games, so he basically missed
• 29:36
  25% of the season and still put up a 3.3 WAR, which obviously is
• 29:40
  is you as a total baseball player, but I think that speaks
• 29:44
  to his potential. His career OPS plus is 116, so
• 29:49
  Lars Newbar had a better year than you even thought.
• 29:52
  I think perception wise for most people last year and he was
• 29:55
  hurt, so I think there's a lot of upside there.
• 29:58
  If he just stays healthy and he's the same player, that's a
• 30:01
  hell of a player. Yeah, but now we so far we've
• 30:03
  given optimistic views on the two corner outfielders, the two
• 30:05
  corner infielders. I think Wilson will be about the
• 30:08
  same guy offensively behind the play.
• 30:09
  He was good last year. I think there's Wilson will
• 30:12
  probably be good again. Little streaky at times, but he
• 30:14
  can carry you up the middle, is where I think it gets
• 30:17
  interesting and I've gotten a lot of questions about this.
• 30:20
  If they're playing is Edmond and center and win at short, who hit
• 30:23
  150 when he got a chance last year?
• 30:25
  What does that look like in terms of can they carry those
• 30:28
  two guys offensively if everybody else doesn't take a
• 30:32
  huge step forward? Like, does that become a chasm
• 30:34
  at the bottom of the lineup or do you think Tommy Edmond can be
• 30:37
  about league average, which is what he's always been on OPS
• 30:39
  plus? And then what's Mason Windu?
• 30:42
  Those are the two guys that I think offensively I don't like
• 30:44
  defensively. I think they'll both do their
• 30:46
  role, but if they're 8:00 and 9:00 in the lineup, is that
• 30:50
  enough? Can the lineup have enough?
• 30:51
  What do you kind of see from those two offensively?
• 30:54
  So as you said, Tommy Edmonds career OPS plus is right there
• 30:58
  at 100. He was 91 last year.
• 31:00
  Let's just say league average 95, whatever it is, 100.
• 31:03
  OK, you can deal with that Center fielder, even though I
• 31:06
  don't love the fact he is your center fielder.
• 31:08
  I think it's fair to say Mason Wynn is probably going to be
• 31:11
  below average in his first year, first full time year in the
• 31:14
  bigs, although I think he'll be better as his career progresses.
• 31:17
  But let's just look at it like that.
• 31:19
  Is it fair to say from an OPS plus standpoint, those are
• 31:23
  probably the only Cardinals we would think, unless something
• 31:25
  crazy happens that aren't above average.
• 31:28
  I'm telling you, maybe I'm wrong.
• 31:29
  I'll be proven wrong. I don't know.
• 31:31
  On paper, I really like the Cardinals position players.
• 31:34
  I really liked them last year and I liked them again.
• 31:37
  And I think there's a lot of upside for guys.
• 31:38
  I'm not even mentioning Dylan Carlson right?
• 31:41
  I don't even you. You might get something out of
• 31:43
  him. But again, Brendan Donovan is
• 31:45
  good man. If he stays healthy.
• 31:46
  Water's new bar is good if he can stay healthy.
• 31:48
  Jordan Walker did some nice things offensively in his first
• 31:51
  year and he was yo yoed up and down.
• 31:54
  Mason win. I'm going to give him a year.
• 31:56
  But he can steal bases. He can hit double S, he can hit
• 31:58
  triples. We're just talking about
• 32:00
  offense. Goldie and Arenado, even in
• 32:02
  their down years are probably going to be 105110 OPS plus if
• 32:06
  Gorman stays healthy. There's a lot of ifs here, but.
• 32:09
  We didn't even say his name yet. Nolan Gorman, the one guy that
• 32:12
  could probably hit 40 like. He could hit 40 and that's not
• 32:15
  even crazy. He just.
• 32:17
  I know the back is barking and that's a thing.
• 32:19
  But I love the Cardinals core of young position players, so I'm
• 32:22
  not going to be one of those guys I I think the Cardinals are
• 32:24
  going to find a lot of. Offense, and I want to make a
• 32:26
  comment about Brendan Donovan. He had the 1:15 OPS plus last
• 32:30
  year. He's 120 OPS plus in the 839
• 32:34
  plate appearances that he's had as a big leaguer, his power went
• 32:38
  up a little bit. His slug and OBP for his career
• 32:41
  are neck and neck, but I think he can show a little more power
• 32:44
  if he's healthy through the full season.
• 32:46
  Brendan Donovan is the type of guy that works.
• 32:47
  I think he's going to continue to get better and to exploit the
• 32:50
  adjustments that pitchers are making to him.
• 32:53
  He's a really smart, savvy player, but even what Brendan
• 32:56
  Donovan has been so far, he's a 20% above league average
• 33:00
  offensive player. Oh, and he can play anywhere and
• 33:03
  and kind of hold the Fort down almost no matter where you put
• 33:06
  him. Defensively.
• 33:07
  That's a really valuable player as well in strikeout wise, he
• 33:10
  struck out 123 times in his career, 100, and that's 839
• 33:15
  plate appearances. And last year you had
• 33:18
  Goldschmidt and Gorman strike out for way more than that in
• 33:21
  just one season. Contreras was at 111.
• 33:23
  Like he's striking out in almost two years.
• 33:27
  The amount that some guys do in one.
• 33:29
  Brendan Donovan is a is going to be a huge factor.
• 33:31
  And honestly, Charlie, I don't know how you feel about this.
• 33:34
  I would lead him off. I almost don't care what your
• 33:36
  left, right, left, right is behind him, He would be my lead
• 33:39
  off guy because I think Newt provides a little more power.
• 33:42
  Get him toward the middle. I would lead off Brendan Donovan
• 33:45
  and I think they're going to have a nice table setter if they
• 33:47
  do that. Yeah.
• 33:49
  I think you'll mix and match, but I'm good with that for sure.
• 33:52
  OK. So I like this next question.
• 33:55
  It's a different type of question.
• 33:56
  We're just going to bounce around.
• 33:58
  I'm just kind of going basically reverse chronological order Will
• 34:03
  this is from Iceman. Will the Cardinals ever pay full
• 34:06
  market value for a free agent ever again?
• 34:09
  The last one was Holiday and they got a deal on it.
• 34:12
  And I think it's fair to say, and I agree with Iceman, I think
• 34:15
  he's thinking about a a true free agent who's hitting around
• 34:19
  the normal time of 293031 that you have to give a long deal
• 34:23
  because Sonny Gray is older. I like the sunny great deal.
• 34:26
  But I do think that's different than signing a Jordan Montgomery
• 34:29
  or a Blake Snell or a Matt Holiday back in the day.
• 34:31
  What do you think of that? Because I know they tried with,
• 34:34
  they tried to resign Jason Hayward, you tried to sign David
• 34:36
  Price. But the Cardinals really haven't
• 34:39
  done that. Am I wrong?
• 34:40
  Have they done the seven-year deal with anybody that wasn't in
• 34:43
  house since Holiday? Not, not like a seven-year deal.
• 34:46
  I mean, Wilson's was 5, but I think when when the Contreras
• 34:50
  deal happened, we knew they needed to catch her.
• 34:52
  He was already over 30. And it my expectation was like
• 34:56
  they'll try to do like a four years, 77 and they basically
• 35:00
  almost got the 5th year for free from like what I thought was
• 35:03
  going to happen. They got a fifth year and it was
• 35:05
  barely more than I thought they'd have to pay him for four.
• 35:07
  And so you know that was another deal.
• 35:09
  The answer is no. Like it's it have to be a really
• 35:12
  rare case to me to see the Cardinals do the type of deal on
• 35:16
  a free agent that is, is on that level of that caliber.
• 35:21
  It almost has to be like there are baked in attributes to the
• 35:23
  player of well, does he want to be a Cardinal?
• 35:26
  Is there is there a history that we can really feel good about?
• 35:28
  Like they're very selective when they spend money on outside
• 35:31
  players and even the Goldie and Arenado trades, that was going
• 35:35
  to lead to a commitment of a lot of money.
• 35:37
  But those guys didn't. They feel like Cardinals before
• 35:39
  they got here. So it almost needs to be that
• 35:41
  type of guy, in my opinion, before they'll ever do it.
• 35:43
  Like Blake Snow right now, I can't explain to you why he
• 35:46
  doesn't feel like a Cardinal guy, but he doesn't kind of feel
• 35:49
  like a Cardinal guy. And so I don't see them dropping
• 35:51
  100 and 3000 and 50 million on it.
• 35:54
  Yeah, that is funny about. Feels like a Cardinal guy and
• 35:57
  what you mentioned. Yeah.
• 35:59
  Once you mentioned Wilson Contreras, I think it's fair to
• 36:01
  say that that was a fair or even above market deal for a catcher,
• 36:06
  because I do think you have to look at the catching position a
• 36:08
  little bit differently. There's not a lot of teams given
• 36:11
  a catcher that's about 37 years. So I think it's fair to say that
• 36:15
  five years and 87 1/2 for a catcher, that that's the biggest
• 36:20
  deal Wilson Contreras was going to get.
• 36:21
  Let's be real. I think so, yeah.
• 36:23
  And so, like to answer that question, it's all going to be
• 36:25
  contextual to the position and to who the guy is.
• 36:28
  But they're they just don't feel like the team that's going to go
• 36:30
  out in the market in a given year and say like, oh, this is
• 36:33
  the marquee free agent of the year, let's go get him.
• 36:36
  Regardless of who he is, or you know it, it has to be a very
• 36:39
  specific set of circumstances before we really envision the
• 36:43
  Cardinals going in on a guy. OK.
• 36:46
  I like this next question here. So here it is.
• 36:49
  It is from Vance Lloyd. With the first month's worth of
• 36:52
  games being as tough as it is, what record will be acceptable
• 36:56
  to be considered successful? And I will give you the
• 36:59
  schedule. As you were talking, I wanted to
• 37:00
  make sure I can bring the schedule up.
• 37:02
  So here it is. So folks know starting four at
• 37:06
  the Dodgers, three and and when we say month, that starts in
• 37:09
  March, but we'll go the first month.
• 37:11
  So four at the Dodgers, three at the Padres, 3 at home versus the
• 37:16
  Marlins, 3 at home versus the Phillies.
• 37:19
  Diamondbacks. Then you get the A's, the crappy
• 37:21
  A's at the A's for three, You get home to the Brewers for
• 37:26
  three, You get home to the D backs for three, you get at the
• 37:31
  Mets for three. And then basically, we'll we'll
• 37:35
  consider the Tigers the last series, even though it it
• 37:37
  overlaps into May. But then you get at the Detroit
• 37:40
  Tigers to finish off April and to begin May right there.
• 37:44
  That's a pretty Dang tough schedule, yes.
• 37:47
  It's, I mean 500 is that OK? Is A is a 501st month OK Given
• 37:52
  where the schedule is I would say that it is as well.
• 37:55
  Some of those teams, I mean you get the the D backs, do they not
• 37:58
  just make the World Series you play them six times in the first
• 38:01
  month and and then I guess you probably don't play them again.
• 38:04
  So that's maybe the benefit there is getting out of the way.
• 38:06
  The schedule should ease up. But what happens is, or what I
• 38:09
  should say, what happens if you have all these games against
• 38:12
  teams that were really good last year and then the season kind of
• 38:16
  chugs along, and then the teams that weren't so good last year
• 38:18
  sort of find their footing and now games against like the
• 38:21
  Pirates and Reds later on. Maybe that's not so easy this
• 38:24
  time around. Like, it could be kind of a
• 38:26
  tough way for the schedule to shake, shake out this year for
• 38:29
  the Cardinals. Yeah, And let's look at it this.
• 38:31
  Way you like to gamble, Let's just say on paper.
• 38:35
  Let's say on paper should the Cardinals be favored in a series
• 38:40
  and let's just go through real quick.
• 38:41
  I think it's fair to say they wouldn't be favored and and you
• 38:43
  can go after me. I think it's fair to say they
• 38:45
  wouldn't be favored against the Dodgers.
• 38:47
  I would say Padres is a toss up series.
• 38:51
  I would say Marlins toss up ish. But I'll lean Cardinals.
• 38:56
  I would say Phillies. The Phillies would be favored.
• 38:59
  This is just kind of like a big picture thing at Diamondbacks.
• 39:02
  I think it's toss up E but I'll I'll I'll basically because the
• 39:06
  Diamondbacks finished so strong last year I'm going to lean
• 39:08
  towards the Diamondbacks in that one.
• 39:10
  You're clearly favored against the A's.
• 39:12
  Brewers I think is a toss up type series back to the
• 39:15
  Diamondbacks. Mets are a team that are kind of
• 39:18
  like the Padres, kind of like the Cardinals I think were crap
• 39:21
  last year should be better this year.
• 39:23
  I think that's a toss up E series and I'll just go ahead
• 39:26
  and say that the Cardinals are going to be favored against the
• 39:28
  Tigers even though I think the Tigers will be better.
• 39:31
  But that's a lot of toss up series.
• 39:34
  And then you got to start with the Dodgers, who should be a
• 39:36
  juggernaut. But then look, the Cardinals are
• 39:38
  going to have to try to win two out of three of a lot of tough
• 39:41
  series there in the first month. They are, and I think that
• 39:44
  Dodgers. Series is really interesting.
• 39:46
  Like if you can split, because that's a four-game series, it
• 39:50
  feels a lot different to come out of the gates against
• 39:53
  Yamamoto, he'll pitch, against Otani, he'll hit.
• 39:55
  In every game it feels a lot different.
• 39:57
  I think for the Cardinals who started so bad last year, and
• 39:59
  we've made so much about that bad start and how it impacted
• 40:02
  what they did thereafter, if they could split that series.
• 40:06
  I think you just kind of can go sigh of relief, head on to San
• 40:09
  Diego and move on with your season.
• 40:10
  If it starts out one and three or O and four, I don't know
• 40:14
  that. I'm not saying that's going to
• 40:15
  tank the the whole thing, but that's going to they're going to
• 40:18
  be the little rumblings of like, oh man, is this here we go
• 40:21
  again. Like if they can go out and
• 40:22
  split with the Dodgers I think that would mean quite a lot.
• 40:24
  But I agree with you. The only series that I, I really
• 40:26
  see that hey, you should be able to dominate the series is
• 40:29
  Oakland and you know, who knows how, how they're going to be
• 40:32
  probably bad again, right? But they may not be the same
• 40:35
  team that they were last year. Maybe they're plucky.
• 40:37
  Maybe they, you know make it a little bit difficult on you.
• 40:40
  Those Phillies and D backs kind of series this early in the
• 40:42
  year. Teams that you know they they
• 40:45
  had good years last year but I think they're both hungry for
• 40:47
  more. Philly is still hungry to say,
• 40:49
  man can we get this World Series thing, can we make this happen
• 40:51
  this year And the D backs got a taste of it.
• 40:53
  So they're going to be, you know, how to try trying to make
• 40:55
  things happen. So it's a tough start.
• 40:57
  It really isn't so. I would say 500, even a game
• 41:00
  below. I don't know exactly if they
• 41:01
  that's 31 games we named or whatever it is, but if you're
• 41:04
  like in that around hovering 500 position, I think that would be
• 41:09
  honestly good enough. I don't know how Cardinals fans
• 41:11
  will feel on on May 1st, if that's what it is, but I
• 41:14
  honestly think that would be OK All right from Patriots.
• 41:18
  Sub vet how much coordination slash feedback slash info shares
• 41:22
  happening between cards players outside of the organization
• 41:26
  hitting programs and Turner war. I don't know a ton about this
• 41:29
  but I do know you see all these guys Arenado goalie nuke bar
• 41:33
  over the years going to Driveline.
• 41:36
  Hell you even see look Matt Holiday has become his own.
• 41:40
  You know it's funny on the radio.
• 41:41
  I called him a hitting guru, he said he didn't like the word
• 41:43
  guru, but clearly, clearly, whether it's Joey Gallo, Matt
• 41:48
  Carpenter, his sons, a lot of folks, a lot of big leaguers and
• 41:52
  young prospects are going over to Stillwater, OK, to hit in
• 41:55
  their amazing hitting barn. So I think a lot of guys have
• 41:58
  their own hitting guys. You know guys, they came up with
• 42:01
  guys back at home, but go ahead from like a hitting strategy.
• 42:05
  It's hard to answer the question, but I can say from
• 42:07
  like a hey, this season matters. Let's make this thing happen
• 42:11
  this year perspective. I think that's happening.
• 42:12
  Like they talked a lot about the group text chains that are kind
• 42:16
  of going off throughout the offseason of of putting
• 42:18
  everybody in the mindset of let's not let last year happen
• 42:21
  again. Like, I think there is a
• 42:22
  motivation and a hunger to the group.
• 42:24
  Now is that an easy thing to say at a winter warm up?
• 42:27
  Yeah. You don't need to get too
• 42:28
  carried away with it, but I do think that there's some truth to
• 42:30
  it as far as how the players are viewing it.
• 42:34
  Last year wasn't fun for anybody in the, like the the heavy part
• 42:38
  of it was that you knew early on, even if you couldn't say it
• 42:40
  publicly. They all knew early on, like,
• 42:43
  this is going to be what it is, isn't it?
• 42:45
  And like, it's never really been this for Saint Louis Cardinals.
• 42:48
  So we're all kind of reckoning with that in our own way.
• 42:51
  Privately, I think it was hard on a lot of guys and I think
• 42:53
  there is reason to believe that it can be different this year
• 42:56
  and that I think guys are communicating in that way.
• 42:59
  Now as far as like who's communicating with whom about
• 43:03
  what hitting strategy, that's kind of hard to say, but I but I
• 43:07
  think it's a fair question and and as you mentioned guys do
• 43:09
  kind of go outside and and get perspectives and that's probably
• 43:12
  a healthy good thing. It's not a knock on necessarily
• 43:15
  the coaching staff to do so and I'm I'm.
• 43:18
  Joking, but it is such a winter warm upy response like we're
• 43:21
  going to win this year because our group text is so active.
• 43:25
  I wanted. I wanted to say it.
• 43:27
  Before. Because I knew it would be the
• 43:29
  comment. I knew it would be your comment.
• 43:30
  So, like, I hear how it sounds too, but that for whatever it's
• 43:33
  worth to you, that's what's going on.
• 43:35
  I know, and I'm just kidding, OK?
• 43:37
  So Omaha is coming. Wants me to ask you about Brock
• 43:40
  Purdy and Kyle Shanahan, but I'm going to move on just because I
• 43:43
  want to stick to baseball. But Omaha, I did see your your
• 43:45
  question. Here's a fun one.
• 43:47
  Tyler, who's the best Cardinals position player pitcher ever?
• 43:52
  Anyone ever pitched more than just once or twice?
• 43:54
  Jed Jerko comes to mind for me early on.
• 43:57
  I feel like Aaron Miles was the guy.
• 43:59
  He did it a lot, didn't he? Yeah, he used to do it quite a
• 44:02
  bit. I don't remember like how
• 44:03
  effective he was, but they did keep going back to him.
• 44:07
  But was that because he like with a lot of guys it was
• 44:10
  interesting at winter warm up people are asking Mason when
• 44:13
  because he he came out like officially out of the draft in
• 44:16
  high school. He was going to do the the
• 44:18
  pitcher slash shortstop thing and then it very very quickly
• 44:20
  died and never to be revisited again.
• 44:23
  And he even said like if I were called upon to it would I'd be
• 44:26
  the last person we would use as a pitcher.
• 44:28
  I wouldn't do it in a game and I is it almost like the guys that
• 44:31
  don't have the the marquee throwing arms.
• 44:34
  That's almost who you use because it is obviously a a
• 44:36
  spot. That doesn't matter in a game
• 44:38
  that's been decided. I actually saw the Cardinals do
• 44:41
  it in a winning effort with guys like Yadi and Albert.
• 44:44
  But maybe that's the reason that Aaron Miles, because he didn't
• 44:47
  maybe have the strongest throwing arm that you were
• 44:49
  worried about jeopardizing in some form or fashion.
• 44:52
  I was trying to find his pitching numbers on on Baseball
• 44:55
  Reference but I I haven't, I haven't been able to locate
• 44:58
  that. So I don't know.
• 44:58
  Maybe Aaron Miles would be the answer.
• 45:00
  Charlie, but yeah, how about like you said?
• 45:03
  Just go. Maybe a Mason Wynn jumps out
• 45:05
  there and he throws 97 and then all of a sudden hey, you're
• 45:08
  going back to a two way player. They'll never do that because of
• 45:11
  that. Exactly.
• 45:12
  And because they don't want. To it's just it's a mindset
• 45:15
  thing, right? Like it's when Rick Yuki was an
• 45:17
  outfielder. It's like, no, he stopped the
• 45:19
  pitching thing for a reason at the time.
• 45:22
  They're not going to try and toe that line with guys, but maybe
• 45:25
  Burleson can be the can be the guy kind of moving forward.
• 45:27
  I did find Aaron Miles did it three times. 3 total
• 45:31
  appearances, 5 total innings. No, pardon me, 5 innings, 5
• 45:36
  games and gave up two earned runs.
• 45:37
  So pretty good. ERAI think he.
• 45:39
  I think he made all high. Here, I'll take that.
• 45:42
  OK, Dalton. M Thompson has a fantasy trade
• 45:45
  request for your league. I'm gonna skip that one, but his
• 45:48
  top question is, and it's a good one, is there a record that the
• 45:51
  Cardinals could reach at the trade deadline that would permit
• 45:54
  them to spend? Or is it strictly a feel thing
• 45:57
  for MO? I'll go first, I think.
• 45:59
  I think it's it's basically the opposite of last year.
• 46:02
  It's the previous two years and I'm a broken record.
• 46:04
  But it's, it's what, 2122 when they get Lester and Happ and
• 46:10
  LeBlanc before that, and then it's the following year when
• 46:12
  they get Quintana and Montgomery, especially coming
• 46:15
  off a crap year. To me, all the Cardinals have to
• 46:19
  do is be around 500 if they are in striking distance.
• 46:22
  If they're five games out at the deadline, I do think they'll
• 46:25
  probably have to add. Let's be real, They'll probably
• 46:27
  have to add a starter and a reliever.
• 46:29
  Somebody will be hurt or bad. They'll need a reliever.
• 46:32
  I do think they'll do that at the deadline.
• 46:34
  I do think the Cardinals will be in the spot to do that.
• 46:37
  I think so too. And.
• 46:38
  And I hate the payroll conversation is always a tricky
• 46:41
  1 because everybody thinks they know what it currently is and
• 46:44
  nobody really does because like, it's always calculated,
• 46:48
  different. And no, well, there's this,
• 46:49
  that's the deferral. And there's constant arguments
• 46:52
  about it on Twitter to where I'm just like, I don't even care.
• 46:54
  But I think that with what they said they would be willing to
• 46:57
  spend and what they have spent, it has left the room to do more
• 47:01
  if more is necessary. So I think if they're in
• 47:04
  contention, even if they're like having a great year and they're
• 47:07
  in first place and everything's great, I still think they'll add
• 47:09
  because they'll sense that, OK, there's room to really maybe
• 47:12
  make some noise. Everything has gone to plan and
• 47:15
  we can supplement from that. So yeah, I think if they're in
• 47:17
  the mix, the the minimum is kind of that J Hap tier where they
• 47:21
  trade a guy like Lane Thomas. At the time, I think he was the
• 47:24
  Lester deal, but they trade a guy who at the time they were
• 47:26
  like, yeah, he doesn't have a spot here.
• 47:27
  So let's get somebody we'll actually use.
• 47:29
  And I know that Lane Thomas has gone on to be very serviceable
• 47:32
  for the for the Nationals. But like that's sort of the type
• 47:35
  of floor that I think you set And then pending injuries or
• 47:39
  what team needs might be they could do something bigger.
• 47:41
  I think if they felt it would help him.
• 47:43
  I think the payroll does set up to allow for that, I have to
• 47:46
  say. Just because and this is a you
• 47:48
  know I love my guy Jimmy the cat haze but this is a semantics
• 47:51
  when you said serviceable to me that's a slight.
• 47:55
  I think Lane Thomas is pretty Dang good.
• 47:57
  I have to check because again my memory is not that great but
• 48:00
  last year Lane Lane Thomas career OPS plus one O 8.
• 48:04
  Last year he was 114. So I think it's fair to say look
• 48:07
  we're giving props to guys like Newt bar and Donovan and
• 48:11
  whoever. Lane Thomas is pretty Dang good.
• 48:15
  Yeah, I mean. He's got a 112 OPS plus with the
• 48:17
  Nationals over the course of three years, which is still
• 48:21
  below Brendan Donovan and Newpar, the guys we've talked
• 48:23
  about for their careers, however.
• 48:25
  Yeah, Lane Thomas has been, let's put it this way.
• 48:27
  He's been worlds above what he was with the Cardinals in 2020
• 48:31
  and 2021, when he looked like he had never seen a baseball field
• 48:35
  before. I think that COVID Hayes thing
• 48:37
  was real for him because I mean he looks dreadful and I was
• 48:41
  somebody that really liked Lane Thomas before that.
• 48:43
  But at the time I was like, you can't possibly defend this.
• 48:46
  So like there's a whole conversation to be had about why
• 48:48
  the Cardinals don't get the most out of their guys and then they
• 48:51
  go elsewhere and do well. But at the time, when they
• 48:53
  traded him for for Lester, I think it was, you can't say that
• 48:57
  at the time. That wasn't the deal that made
• 48:58
  sense for the way the club was structured.
• 49:01
  But Lane Thomas, I'm, I'm so sorry for using serviceable.
• 49:04
  He's been good with Washington. And you know, a guy that's
• 49:07
  that's stuck around, I mean, he's going to continue to stick
• 49:09
  around is. But when I I almost say
• 49:11
  serviceable because like we know the Washington Nationals are bad
• 49:14
  and they expect to be bad and that's been like the case the
• 49:16
  whole time he's been there. So it's easier for a team like
• 49:19
  that to give runs. Elaine Thomas and say we see raw
• 49:22
  materials here. Let's see what it looks like in
• 49:24
  500 plate appearances. It's always like the teams that
• 49:27
  get a chance to do that with guys that the Cardinals send
• 49:30
  them there and then they look good.
• 49:31
  That's like the constant change of scenery conversation that
• 49:35
  happens. I think it can be a real thing
• 49:36
  for guys and for him it certainly was.
• 49:39
  Yeah, and I was half kidding. Obviously about the service,
• 49:41
  well, but I will say this on the topic.
• 49:44
  The Cardinals have been so bad at trading away the good
• 49:48
  outfielders and keeping let's let's be real, the wrong ones,
• 49:52
  that they've also lost the benefit of the doubt on this
• 49:55
  topic. And it's funny, it's like we
• 49:57
  always talk about change of scenery, but it's also a lot of
• 50:00
  guys that didn't get very much opportunity.
• 50:03
  Now you know, we started this conversation about Lane Thomas,
• 50:06
  but you can go back to Randy Rosarena, no real opportunity.
• 50:09
  Lane Thomas got rocked by COVID. That messed, that messed up his
• 50:13
  career for a solid year, year and a half.
• 50:15
  So it's kind of different. But again, to me, I mean that's
• 50:20
  why I expect Tyler O'Neill to hit 35 bombs this year.
• 50:22
  Like it doesn't matter until you until you switch the trend.
• 50:27
  Here's a maybe good analogy. I was working in Michigan when
• 50:31
  the Lions drafted the wrong wide receiver 86 straight years.
• 50:35
  Until they. Until they did it again with
• 50:37
  Calvin Johnson and they got it right.
• 50:40
  Until the Cardinals actually don't let an outfielder leave
• 50:43
  who becomes really, really good. They've lost the benefit of the
• 50:46
  doubt, yeah, and I think that's a fair.
• 50:48
  Characterization. And I don't know what the answer
• 50:51
  is, but like I said, there's a conversation to be had.
• 50:53
  Why can't they get the most out of these guys?
• 50:56
  Because sometimes when they're trading them away, a Rosa Reyna,
• 50:58
  not a good example because he, like you said, never got a
• 51:01
  chance here. But like with Elaine Thomas, we,
• 51:04
  we saw it play out. With Tyler O'Neill this past
• 51:06
  year, we saw it play out and it absolutely did not work.
• 51:09
  So it's kind of interesting. It's not just the guys that they
• 51:13
  they should have given a chance to but never found time to do
• 51:15
  so. It's also the ones that they let
• 51:17
  play out and then they let play out for another year and it was
• 51:20
  still bad that then go somewhere else and are good.
• 51:22
  Why that is, I don't know. But I think you're right that
• 51:25
  that is a trend at this point and one that you do sort of just
• 51:28
  expect to come to fruition. And by the way, I don't, I don't
• 51:31
  think it hurts Tyler O'Neill that he's a power hitter from
• 51:33
  the right side and he's got that wall at Fenway.
• 51:35
  He's going to hit balls over that wall and probably put some
• 51:38
  holes in that wall with the power that he has.
• 51:40
  He's a good fit for that ballpark and he'll probably be
• 51:43
  good there. And by the way, before we move
• 51:45
  on. Here, quick, I'm going to throw
• 51:47
  Dylan Carlson in that bucket because he's another, it looks
• 51:50
  like outfielder, that there's a very good chance they were wrong
• 51:54
  on where you do go to a guy like him opposed to some of these
• 51:59
  other prospects, that you may be traded away.
• 52:01
  You're banking on him. He's now your 4th outfitter.
• 52:04
  Can he can he perform beyond that?
• 52:06
  Sure, but he has to prove it. But there's another guy where
• 52:09
  right now, at at this point in his career, it looks like they
• 52:12
  kept him too long and he has almost no trade value.
• 52:16
  And that's probably right. And that's, but that is also
• 52:18
  what happened to O'Neill. And yet we see more upside with
• 52:20
  O'Neill because the power has been there for Carlson.
• 52:23
  It's not really been, you know, the hitting against right-handed
• 52:26
  pitching has sort of been the bugaboo for Dylan Carlson and he
• 52:30
  did come up so young to where maybe he's still developing and
• 52:33
  and figuring out how to do that at the big league level.
• 52:35
  But it's going to be a tough road to hoe for him this year,
• 52:38
  simply because we don't really expect him to be granted the
• 52:42
  playing time in the runway to be able to work through some of
• 52:44
  those issues. He feels like the primary type
• 52:47
  of guy that should probably go somewhere else, like a Nationals
• 52:50
  where they could put him in center field for, you know, 140
• 52:53
  games and see what happens. Granted, he hasn't been healthy
• 52:56
  enough to do that for the Cardinals when they've wanted to
• 52:58
  in the past, so it is always kind of a double edged sword
• 53:00
  with that. But he's one that I'll be
• 53:02
  curious to see how it plays out. Because again, if if Tyler
• 53:06
  O'Neill had the arms length thing with Ollie and part of
• 53:09
  that was like getting thrown under the bus, but part of it
• 53:12
  was like, are are you an everyday guy, What are you to
• 53:14
  this team and kind of feeling the weight of that?
• 53:16
  Is Dylan going to feel that same weight with Ollie this year and
• 53:19
  will that allow him to spread his wings the way he needs to?
• 53:22
  Probably remains to be seen. So it could be that Dylan
• 53:25
  Carlson after this year doesn't go well.
• 53:27
  Go somewhere else revives his career or maybe he goes
• 53:29
  somewhere else and they traded Steven Pascotti under very
• 53:33
  different circumstances because of the the family situation for
• 53:36
  him and that was a solid that the Cardinals did for the
• 53:38
  Pascotti family. But like he sort of kind of
• 53:40
  fizzled out after he's he's not one that you say, oh man he got
• 53:44
  away from a baseball perspective.
• 53:46
  It is Dylan Carlson going to maybe kind of go that way or the
• 53:49
  way of Elaine Thomas, I think will be interesting to see.
• 53:52
  But we it's almost like a foregone conclusion that he
• 53:54
  doesn't necessarily feel long for this team, but he also
• 53:57
  hasn't got the trade value right now to move.
• 54:00
  That's kind of the way I would look at it for Dylan, and I hope
• 54:02
  I'm wrong. I hope he's great with the
• 54:03
  Cardinals and stays. But you know, the writing on the
• 54:05
  wall right now doesn't look as favorable when they're baking
• 54:08
  him in as the 4th outfielder to start the year.
• 54:10
  That's never a good sign. Yeah, and it goes one or two.
• 54:14
  Ways probably. He either has the bad year and
• 54:16
  then literally his trade value is 0, or he has the Goodyear and
• 54:20
  the Cardinals keep him. That's probably the way it's
• 54:22
  going to go. OK, so next question is or
• 54:25
  comment. Jayden Radford says the starting
• 54:28
  rotation doesn't blow me away like I had hoped.
• 54:31
  And I think that's fair because before the season started the
• 54:34
  offseason I said the Cardinals need 2 pitchers better than
• 54:37
  Miles Michaelis. I don't think they've done that
• 54:39
  on paper. They got one in Sonny Gray.
• 54:41
  They got 2 back end guys and Lynn and Gibson I've said this
• 54:45
  5000 times. So to me they didn't do I wanted
• 54:49
  to trade for the high upside guy or the whoever the hell the
• 54:52
  Logan Gilbert cease. Maybe you could say it's a pipe
• 54:55
  dream. I think the Cardinals starting
• 54:57
  rotation will be OK, but I did expect more.
• 54:59
  Yeah, And those. Deals are hard to make.
• 55:01
  They're hard to stomach. First of all, because you're
• 55:03
  going to trade away some of those really good hitters we
• 55:06
  talked about. They'd never trade new bar.
• 55:08
  That's a non starter. I have told people the whole way
• 55:10
  through. So is Brendan Donovan.
• 55:12
  He's a non starter. I don't know if I get a sense
• 55:14
  for how they feel on Gorman. I think they might have done it.
• 55:16
  If if it were on the table for them to get a Caesar or Gilbert
• 55:20
  by trading Gorman and maybe a a pitching prospect, whether it's
• 55:24
  Tink Hands or Griseffo or whoever it might be, I think the
• 55:26
  Cardinals might have been willing to do that.
• 55:28
  I don't know that. And again, I don't know this for
• 55:30
  a fact that MO could hear this and say no, he's full of crap
• 55:32
  and he would be right and I'd be wrong.
• 55:33
  But I think that would be the type of move that would have
• 55:36
  been required to get one of those big time pitching guys who
• 55:40
  also didn't get traded. Like again, the teams did not
• 55:43
  trade those players. So it tells you they were
• 55:45
  probably asking for quite a bit for them and that's why it
• 55:49
  doesn't come to fruition. And so the Cardinals sensing
• 55:52
  that that might be the case, like let's say they played out
• 55:54
  the whole offseason and went down that path.
• 55:57
  And you do get Blake Snell and Montgomery signed by now because
• 56:01
  most people would have predicted that they would have signed by
• 56:03
  now. And the Cardinals missed out on
• 56:05
  Lyndon Gibson, who they kind of had an eye on and they couldn't
• 56:08
  make the trade they wanted to make.
• 56:09
  Now you're kind of like, uh, oh, and I think the last thing they
• 56:13
  wanted is to end up in OH OH territory when it comes to this
• 56:16
  rotation. So they built the bottom of it
• 56:18
  out and tried to build up from there and got Sonny Gray through
• 56:21
  that process. I just think it was the the
• 56:24
  simpler, easier path and it was the one that involved less risk
• 56:28
  for them completely missing out on some of their targets.
• 56:32
  OK, so. We have a ton more questions.
• 56:35
  We do. We can.
• 56:37
  Wrap up here after another one or two and then if you want, we
• 56:40
  can next week. Are you going to spring
• 56:42
  training, by the way? I will be at Spring.
• 56:44
  Training. Not by next week.
• 56:45
  We're we're good on next Thursday.
• 56:47
  But after that I'll be. I'm heading out the Monday after
• 56:50
  the Super Bowl. I'm going to drive.
• 56:51
  So cool. OK, so.
• 56:53
  We can do more of these questions.
• 56:55
  There's so many. We're not going to get to all of
• 56:56
  them. I was thinking about we release
• 56:58
  it in two, in two parts anyway, but we'll just finish this one
• 57:00
  and we'll release it and then we'll do one next week.
• 57:02
  So this will be our last, I think, substantive baseball
• 57:05
  question. Maybe we'll end with a fun one,
• 57:08
  but I think it's a good big picture thought it's from Liam
• 57:12
  and he just says, I don't see how this roster is any better
• 57:15
  than last year's. It's pretty simple question,
• 57:18
  what do you think? I mean, they had a terrible year
• 57:20
  last year on paper, do you think the roster, is it the same as
• 57:24
  last year? Is it slightly better?
• 57:25
  Is it slightly worse? What do you think?
• 57:26
  I think it's better. I.
• 57:28
  Think the roster is better? Because I think for the guys
• 57:32
  that were bad or below their standard, like Goldie and
• 57:35
  Arenado, there's unless you're subscribing to their cook
• 57:38
  because they're old, which I don't subscribe for either of
• 57:41
  those guys, then you they should probably be better.
• 57:43
  The clubhouse is going to feel better because they're not
• 57:46
  behind the 8 ball the whole season.
• 57:48
  Like I think that was a real tangible thing that feels
• 57:50
  intangible because it's like, well, they're the same players,
• 57:53
  why couldn't they just play better?
• 57:54
  The mood wasn't right, and you can blame whatever you want for
• 57:57
  it. I welcome fans to do it.
• 57:59
  Pick the thing you want to blame.
• 58:00
  Pick Ollie. Pick Tyler.
• 58:01
  Pick Wilson. Pick the pictures that were
• 58:05
  whining to Wilson or about Wilson.
• 58:07
  Pick Mozalak. Whatever makes you feel best.
• 58:09
  Pick that and be convinced that that's what it was and you can
• 58:12
  be right. It's irrelevant for what's about
• 58:13
  to happen in 2024, though. I look at the pitching
• 58:16
  specifically, and I do think that despite the fact that
• 58:20
  Montgomery was a good pitcher for them and now they don't have
• 58:23
  them, I think you upgraded that spot by getting Sonny Gray.
• 58:26
  I think you upgraded by getting Gibson and Lynn instead of
• 58:31
  Flaherty and Wainwright because Flaherty wasn't good last year
• 58:34
  and he was probably a little bit of a drag on some of those
• 58:36
  things that were going on behind the scenes.
• 58:38
  Right? So I think from that perspective
• 58:41
  you're better. And they have taken out guys
• 58:44
  like Hudson and Woodford who felt like they had a cap
• 58:48
  ceiling. Like, Oh my gosh, if they can
• 58:50
  get through five innings, three runs, you you survived that day
• 58:53
  and maybe you win a game. But they also had a floor that
• 58:56
  was we saw too many times. We also saw Stephen Mats at his
• 59:00
  worst at the beginning of the year.
• 59:02
  And I feel like maybe that's what it is.
• 59:05
  Again, you get a mixed bag with Stephen Mats.
• 59:07
  But like there's enough I think of stabilization to the rotation
• 59:10
  that it's better where it where it absolutely can go off the
• 59:13
  rails. Charlie is if the plan to get
• 59:15
  those quality starts from the Michaelis's and the the Gibson
• 59:20
  and the Lynn contingent, if one of those two of them get hurt,
• 59:24
  right, is that is Zach Thompson going to be able to do 160
• 59:27
  innings of of 30 starts? I don't know.
• 59:30
  And then who's behind him? So like that's where it could
• 59:32
  absolutely go off the rails. But I think they specifically
• 59:35
  designed to try and say like this is our rotation day one in
• 59:39
  February and we think that there's a decent enough chance
• 59:41
  of it being our rotation day one of April because we got durable
• 59:45
  guys that we think can last. Whether that happens, I don't
• 59:49
  know. It has to for it to work, I'll
• 59:50
  admit that. And I think there's a better
• 59:52
  chance of it happening because they've got these grizzled vets
• 59:55
  that kind of know how to, how to get through the rigors and know
• 59:58
  how it goes. That's what they're banking on
• 1:00:00
  this year. I don't know if it works,
• 1:00:01
  Charlie. That's their plan.
• 1:00:03
  But then that would be my case for why it's better.
• 1:00:05
  Do you see it like I do? Or do you push back on it and
• 1:00:08
  say dude, guys get hurt in spring every year and this is
• 1:00:10
  going to be a problem? This is interesting to me
• 1:00:13
  because. I think the position player
• 1:00:15
  group is essentially the same. You're adding a young Mason
• 1:00:18
  Wynn, who I love, big picture but could be rocky offensively.
• 1:00:23
  First year. I do think a lot of guys are
• 1:00:25
  going to be 5 to 10 to 15% better, which is huge.
• 1:00:28
  If a lot of people do that and you just get a little better
• 1:00:30
  health on the position player side, bullpen, it seems like
• 1:00:34
  it's about the same. It's about Ish.
• 1:00:36
  I do like, I do like Andrew Kittredge.
• 1:00:39
  I do think adding the innings will help the bullpen, as I said
• 1:00:42
  earlier. But I think the rotation is the
• 1:00:44
  interesting piece and I I I think what you brought up is
• 1:00:48
  about Kyle Gibson and Jack Flaherty for example.
• 1:00:51
  You said Flaherty didn't have a good year.
• 1:00:53
  I would push back and say, well, Jack Flaherty ended the year
• 1:00:56
  terribly with the Orioles as he's pushed to the bullpen.
• 1:01:00
  Now Jack Flaherty with the Cardinals, were those numbers
• 1:01:03
  that much different than Kyle Gibson?
• 1:01:04
  If you look at their ERA and you look at their their 5th, so and
• 1:01:07
  then remember you're losing Monty, who was an absolute stud,
• 1:01:11
  but you're also losing Wayno, who was one of the worst
• 1:01:14
  pitchers in the history of baseball.
• 1:01:16
  For a starting pitcher, Miles Michaelis should be better just
• 1:01:19
  because he couldn't have had a worst start for Miles Michaelis.
• 1:01:22
  So I don't know is is the answer I think if you just ask.
• 1:01:28
  Me. I do.
• 1:01:28
  Think the starting rotation is going to be better, but I don't
• 1:01:32
  know. I get why people don't agree
• 1:01:34
  it's the way that. I expect Kyle Gibson and Jack
• 1:01:37
  Flaherty to come by their numbers to arrive at their 5th,
• 1:01:42
  to arrive at their ER as that I think will be different.
• 1:01:44
  I don't know if that's a feel thing that Brendan Schaefer is
• 1:01:47
  subscribing to the party line or if there is reason to back that
• 1:01:51
  up. Because I look at Jack Flary's
• 1:01:53
  numbers and go, well here. Some of his worst starts were
• 1:01:56
  two innings, 10 runs, three innings, seven runs, four
• 1:01:59
  innings, six runs. You know, he had a number of
• 1:02:01
  those. Kyle Gibson kind of did too,
• 1:02:03
  right? So like, Lance Lynn was not
• 1:02:06
  impervious to those types of outing.
• 1:02:08
  So maybe it's a case of like we're building these guys up as,
• 1:02:12
  oh, they're going to be reliable and they're always going to get
• 1:02:14
  through five or six innings even if they give up five runs.
• 1:02:18
  I don't know. Maybe that's not 100% the case,
• 1:02:21
  Charlie. And there's not as many
• 1:02:22
  differences from last year's team.
• 1:02:24
  It it sounds good in the offseason.
• 1:02:26
  It's one of those things that you say, hey, they're going to
• 1:02:28
  the ER as not all of them are created equal and they're going
• 1:02:31
  to be a they're going to be a better team with a a slight
• 1:02:33
  improvement to ERA because they're not going to be run out
• 1:02:36
  of as many games in the early innings.
• 1:02:37
  But I'm looking at Kyle Gibson from last year.
• 1:02:39
  He gave up nine and a start. He gave up seven and a start.
• 1:02:41
  Now he made it into the 6th and into the 5th in those outings
• 1:02:44
  but you know that you're still probably losing those games and
• 1:02:47
  and his team lost both of those games so that's kind of Fair.
• 1:02:50
  I I think Lance Lynn is honestly a huge key to all of this
• 1:02:53
  because if you view him as back end guy going to eat some
• 1:02:55
  innings then yeah maybe it's not going to be as as as rosy as the
• 1:02:59
  Cardinals would would say if Lance Lynn has whatever he did
• 1:03:03
  in 2022 like I think it was sub four and he was like a 399 ERA.
• 1:03:07
  If Lance Lynn is a dog again which maybe he will be, put him
• 1:03:10
  in Bush. Don't give up as many homers
• 1:03:13
  kind of be. Have a light, a fire under him
• 1:03:15
  because he doesn't want to be the pitcher he was last year.
• 1:03:18
  He's got to almost be like better than Miles Michaelis I
• 1:03:21
  think, And if that is the way it shakes out, Michaelis is like a
• 1:03:24
  solid three. He reverts back on the 5th a
• 1:03:27
  little bit to what he was in 2022 which was solid.
• 1:03:30
  Gives you another 200 innings and it's last year's Gray with
• 1:03:34
  Lynn of old or even of a year ago like before 2023 with
• 1:03:39
  Michaelis being like a 4.3 ERA innings eater at the three spot.
• 1:03:43
  I don't know that I think is absolutely better than having to
• 1:03:45
  run out Drew ROM for starts and Dakota Hudson for starts the way
• 1:03:50
  that they did last year. I could be wrong, but that's
• 1:03:52
  kind of where I see it is a little better and I think the
• 1:03:55
  idea is that the clubhouse will be in a much better spot.
• 1:03:58
  But that also how many games does that win you?
• 1:04:00
  Is a fair question for Cardinals fans to have and it's it's fun.
• 1:04:05
  We'll. Just talk about ERAI think it's
• 1:04:06
  fair to say like if you really lay it out you don't need much
• 1:04:11
  if Sonny Gray can be in the threes.
• 1:04:15
  OK and and not closer to four. Let's just say it's Sonny Gray's
• 1:04:18
  3 1/2 or below and then if everybody else can be in the
• 1:04:23
  fours but not pushing 5 right and and that's possible it's
• 1:04:28
  possible that at the end of the year and maybe you say Kyle
• 1:04:32
  Gibson's 4 1/2, Lanceon's 4 1/2 whatever.
• 1:04:35
  I'm just saying, we don't, we don't want it to be too close to
• 1:04:37
  five. But if Michael is Matt's Lynn
• 1:04:41
  and Kyle Gibson are all from a four ERA to 4 1/2, I think
• 1:04:44
  you're going to win a lot of, a lot of baseball games.
• 1:04:46
  Yeah, because I think like a guy like.
• 1:04:48
  Kittredge does help the bullpen, and what is he your fourth
• 1:04:51
  option behind Helsley and Gallegos and JoJo from the left
• 1:04:54
  side? And maybe one of what happened
• 1:04:56
  last year too, that we don't talk a lot about.
• 1:04:58
  The Cardinals took the strategy of of bull penning that I think
• 1:05:01
  they should have taken in the offseason prior to 2023, which
• 1:05:04
  is throw a bunch of mediocre, maybe problematic arms at it who
• 1:05:08
  haven't figured it out and see if a couple of them do.
• 1:05:11
  None of them did. They were all either hurt or bad
• 1:05:14
  or whatever the case was. None of that like dumpster
• 1:05:18
  diving on relievers worked. Like not one of them worked last
• 1:05:21
  year in this year. They're kind of doing it a
• 1:05:23
  little bit, but maybe hind blooms helping out a little and
• 1:05:26
  maybe they they're finding some better names, right?
• 1:05:28
  Like they're doing it again. They haven't spent up on any
• 1:05:30
  relievers necessarily but they're getting guys in that
• 1:05:34
  bucket where like if a couple of them work out then the bullpen
• 1:05:38
  does look better and they have an easier job if the rotation
• 1:05:41
  gets deeper into games and and asks lesser of what the bullpen
• 1:05:45
  has to provide. So like that would be the path
• 1:05:48
  and it's a it's an it's an aspect it's not talked about a
• 1:05:50
  lot because the bullpen thing is like they didn't spend they're
• 1:05:53
  doing basically what they did last year but the like think
• 1:05:56
  about the guys that they had at spring training where you go hey
• 1:05:58
  maybe Guillermo Zuniga you're like who he never was even a
• 1:06:01
  factor and that's that was everybody that they tried it
• 1:06:04
  with last year. I think they're doing it again,
• 1:06:06
  but with a little bit of a different flair.
• 1:06:08
  And maybe it works differently than it did in 2023.
• 1:06:11
  That could matter too. OK, let's end on this one.
• 1:06:14
  We have a million more questions.
• 1:06:15
  We'll get to a more, maybe do another one next week.
• 1:06:17
  Maybe I'll do one on my own. Maybe we'll do both of that.
• 1:06:19
  Here's the last question he's going to.
• 1:06:21
  Take him for himself. I knew it.
• 1:06:22
  No. Dude, there's probably 4 hours
• 1:06:25
  worth of questions. Honestly, so much love to the
• 1:06:27
  people on Twitter. I didn't even put out there on
• 1:06:29
  YouTube. We'd have got more on YouTube.
• 1:06:31
  So here we go. Thomas Govain, who will replace
• 1:06:34
  Tyler O'Neill as the strongest cardinal now stubby clap, isn't
• 1:06:39
  allowed to be an option. Now, I'm not down there really
• 1:06:42
  at all like I used to be. So I'll just say from what I've
• 1:06:46
  seen, you know, who's a very underrated, real strong dude is
• 1:06:49
  Miles Michaels. He's he's built dude, he's put
• 1:06:52
  together like a pitcher that can log 200 innings.
• 1:06:54
  So what do you think do people think of Paul Goldsmidt?
• 1:06:57
  As yoked they should is my point.
• 1:06:59
  Like, I don't know. I don't know if they think of
• 1:07:01
  him that way, but they they should.
• 1:07:02
  That was going to be the other guy that I would bring up.
• 1:07:04
  Yeah, I'd like to see Miles Michaelis and Paul Goldsmidt arm
• 1:07:07
  wrestle, but maybe like left arm so that nobody's hurting their
• 1:07:10
  pitching arm or anything. But like those guys are, those
• 1:07:12
  guys are some too strong, strong dudes.
• 1:07:14
  I'm trying to think if there's anybody else that that should be
• 1:07:16
  jumping out to me that that doesn't immediately.
• 1:07:19
  Those are the two that I would I would have brought up Miles as
• 1:07:21
  well as as a guy who underrated strong guy for sure.
• 1:07:25
  And they're big. Also because you can have a a
• 1:07:28
  smaller guy who's wound real tight.
• 1:07:30
  Like like Harrison Bader wasn't the biggest dude, but he's he's
• 1:07:33
  a strong dude. But both Miles and Paul
• 1:07:36
  Goldschmidt are big ass country strong dudes.
• 1:07:38
  Well, Harrison Bader was built. Too.
• 1:07:40
  He just wasn't a strong guy. I'm sorry.
• 1:07:42
  A tall guy. He wasn't like, that's what I'm
• 1:07:44
  saying as Heidi. Yeah.
• 1:07:45
  OK, yeah. So yeah, Goldie and Miles, both
• 1:07:47
  pretty tall and pretty built. I think that's fair.
• 1:07:49
  So probably pretty strong dudes as well.
• 1:07:52
  And I won't on this one. I won't.
• 1:07:54
  Ask you the last question, which is from my guy Mike, who's the
• 1:07:56
  hottest dude on the team. We'll get to that one.
• 1:07:59
  OK Yeah, we'll get to that one next week.
• 1:08:00
  So we'll wrap up after dark. I don't know when that one ends
• 1:08:03
  up. Yes.
• 1:08:04
  That's for Skinemax. After Dark YouTube Special for
• 1:08:07
  subscribers Only now you told me there was only one thing you
• 1:08:12
  wouldn't. Do for money on YouTube and it
• 1:08:14
  kind of it geared toward that that area.
• 1:08:16
  So I don't know. I'm I'm, I'm skeptical of
• 1:08:18
  whether that one's ever going to see the light of day.
• 1:08:21
  Well, if I get in better shape. Maybe if I get better shape,
• 1:08:22
  maybe I'll start stripping. All right.
• 1:08:25
  Yikes. Good times, good times, great
• 1:08:27
  oldies. Thank you.
• 1:08:28
  Brendan Schaefer, what's the name of this podcast?
• 1:08:30
  It's called oh, Hanging Fruit, Hanging Fruit Episode One.
• 1:08:34
  We'll come back next week and we got a ton of questions, so we'll
• 1:08:37
  we'll get to almost all of them. Brendan, thank you as always,
• 1:08:40
  Sir. And thank you for watching
• 1:08:42
  folks. Comment, like, subscribe, share
• 1:08:44
  the channel, share the videos on social media in your group, text
• 1:08:48
  for Cardinals fans and we'll do it all year long.
• 1:08:50
  Brendan, Great stuff, buddy. Appreciate the.
• 1:08:53
  Time. We had a a wonderful time today.
• 1:08:56
  Yes we did. And follow Brendan what?
• 1:08:58
  Is it B shaped daily We got to we got to get this.
• 1:09:00
  Going in the early I'm missing out on all the those viewers who
• 1:09:03
  click out when we start to just like talk about nothing.
• 1:09:06
  Missing out on the plugs. B shaped daily.
• 1:09:08
  Brendan Schaefer, YouTube is Brendan Schaefer Saint Louis
• 1:09:12
  Cardinals writer If you just type in my name on YouTube, just
• 1:09:14
  subscribe to the channel because that would help too.
• 1:09:17
  And I got to push back one more. Time.
• 1:09:19
  OK, oh, here we go. Because you said you said once
• 1:09:21
  we start talking about nothing. I thought I stopped this
• 1:09:24
  podcast. I had a good time about 70
• 1:09:27
  minutes before we really started talking about nothing.
• 1:09:29
  I actually thought it was pretty substantive Baseball talk.
• 1:09:32
  No, it was. But.
• 1:09:33
  Once people are like, hey, they're wrapping up, click.
• 1:09:35
  They're out of here. They're not hearing this at all.
• 1:09:37
  Maybe I'm wrong. You see the?
• 1:09:39
  YouTube Analytics. Better than I do.
• 1:09:41
  So I don't know, just subscribe to my thing too.
• 1:09:43
  We put it on Charlie's because he's got more people, but I'll
• 1:09:46
  catch him like in 2027 or something.
• 1:09:49
  All right, well, you can always invite.
• 1:09:50
  Me on yours? That's never happened.
• 1:09:52
  Yeah, well, I could. I could.
• 1:09:53
  But. We you're busy guy.
• 1:09:54
  I mean you got a lot to get to. You've got a lot of irons in the
• 1:09:57
  fire as they say and we already talked once a week.
• 1:10:00
  So I still think that there will come a time where we take off
• 1:10:04
  with low hanging fruit and you're like let's just do a
• 1:10:05
  second time per week and that's when I that's when we really
• 1:10:08
  start to get it going. But we'll see.
• 1:10:10
  Right now, it's not the time because there's nothing to talk
• 1:10:12
  about. Oh, during the season.
• 1:10:14
  Easy. We can do it almost every day
• 1:10:16
  for sure. Right now, there's nothing to
• 1:10:18
  talk about. All right, I'll shut up.
• 1:10:19
  We need to shut up. We need to end the show.
• 1:10:20
  This is what I always do. I should have ended it 5 minutes
• 1:10:22
  ago. But people like this.
• 1:10:24
  That's what you always. Used to say on your show with
• 1:10:26
  with, with Martin, you know people, people really like this
• 1:10:29
  stuff. OK.
• 1:10:29
  Maybe they do that last, that last mid.
• 1:10:31
  Roll ad always helps. All right.
• 1:10:33
  Thanks guys. Thanks, Brendan.
• 1:10:34
  See you guys later. Have a great weekend, everybody.
• 1:10:36
  See ya.