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Transcript

The Oregon House Races That Matter · Crosstabs

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_02: We're cleared to engage.
• 0:01
  SPEAKER_02: Time on target, 5 miles.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: One of the things that I want to talk about is we got a tweet or we I saw a tweet
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: from Senator Gelser that we didn't do in follow up that I want to bring up because
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_00: she was making a point that I hadn't thought about on cell phones and other
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: personal electronics in schools.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: So the American Bar Association Commission on Disability Rights tweeted as schools
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: increasingly impose limits or outright bans on cell phones and other devices.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: Disability advocates are warning that the moves could impede access to much needed assistive technology.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: And so Senator Sarah Gelser-Bluen retweets this and she says,
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: access to personal tech has been a game changer for kids with disabilities.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: It provides time management,
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: augmented communication,
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: anxiety support,
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: access to adaptive material,
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: and more.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: Device bans will harm these students,
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: impede learning,
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: and further separate kids with greatest needs from their peers.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: And so I replied and said we would talk about this on the podcast,
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: which is one of the reasons I didn't want to forget to do it.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: And she said, thank you.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: I appreciate concern about the impact of excessive recreational device use on youth.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: However,
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: a ban not only deprives kids of needed support,
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: but avoids teaching skills needed to manage device use.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: This is a soft skill we all need.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: And that's very true.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: I just took my kids for their regular checkups.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_00: And one of the questions they ask is how much screen time.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_00: and i'm not doing a very good job measuring it but they recommend pediatricians are
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: recommending right now about two hours of screen time for kids not too much you
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_00: know they don't recommend too much more than that so we're working on curbing yes
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: tv and devices that's the hard part right two hours games i know i know and so
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: we're working we're probably not at two hours but we've been trying to curb it down
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: um a little bit and i noticed that when we do that oliver's attitude improves
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: And when we start to do too much devices,
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: he gets a little anxious and his attitude can be a little snippy.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_00: So we're working on that.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: But I think it's a really good point.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_00: And this is just a point I hadn't thought about with the cell phone.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: So I appreciate Senator Gelser-Bloomin bringing that out.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_01: Well,
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_01: I definitely,
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_01: well,
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_01: the other thing with the cell phone stuff,
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_01: and I remember with my kids and now they're probably on their cell phones more than anything,
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_01: but you have to teach them how to put it down.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_01: And you know, and I'm my, my older son, he's in college now, but, and he does a pretty good job.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_01: He doesn't play video games much anymore.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_01: He'll get on there and,
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_01: and play some stuff when him and his buddies are hanging out on the weekends in his
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_01: dorm room.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_01: But I mean, he's so focused on school and stuff and he's kind of worked past it.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_01: the younger son is still kind of stuck on reels and all the stuff that's on fun on
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_01: social media,
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_01: He's making his own and like him and his buddies,
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_01: they take their trucks and they go do cool stuff and they create videos and they're
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_01: fun and he's got a decent number of views and everything,
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_01: but he's doing it for fun versus,
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_01: just sitting there
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_01: on the couch watching it.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_01: Like that's where I, I think it's bad.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_01: So I think he's learned that his device can be used for,
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_01: so you can,
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_01: you can sit there and go make reels and get out and about with your truck and they
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_01: run around town and they take cool different shots of their different trucks and
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_01: things like that.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_01: Well, you know what?
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_01: They're out there doing stuff, right?
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_01: So they're not just sitting there on the couch, uh,
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_01: You know, slipping up or, you know, whatever the scenario.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that's the difference is really showing him.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_01: Of course, he's not there yet.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_01: He still sits on the couch and flips reels, too.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_01: But I if I could go back and my kids would be your age now,
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_01: I think you're doing the right thing is you have to teach them how to use it responsibly.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_01: Because the cell phone is ingrained.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_01: It literally is ingrained like taking your wallet with you, right?
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_01: Like back in the day, people, oh, where's my cell phone?
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_01: Where's my cell phone?
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_01: Like you, everybody has it.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_01: You can go to any doctor's office in the country today and look in the waiting room
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_01: and 98% of them are on their cell phones while they're waiting for the doctor to
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_01: call them.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_01: But you know what?
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_01: That's a great place for you to be on your cell phone.
• 4:40
  Yeah.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_01: Is because that waiting room sucks.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_01: I remember back in the day for their cell phones,
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_01: it was the worst going to the dentist's office and reading some magazine from 14
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_01: years ago,
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_01: in the waiting room because you're bored.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_01: So
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_01: and I think our kids just have to be trained.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_01: And I think what Senator Gelser was saying,
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_01: which I thought was a really good is you can't,
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_01: you can't do a knee jerk,
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_01: just ban everything.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_01: Cause there's a group of, of kids that she obviously is very special needs.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_01: She gets very clued into that, that group.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_01: And that has benefited from having the personal electronic devices with him.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_01: So we do need to teach our kids that,
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_01: that they just need to be responsible with them.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_01: And,
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_01: and I'm seeing that my kid now within his,
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_01: in his classes,
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_01: like when the one teacher,
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_01: they come in,
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_01: they all just throw them in a box.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_01: He does, the teacher does his lecture.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_01: And if they get their homework done, then he lets them bring their homework up.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_01: And then they grab, they get their cell phone for the rest of the class period.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_01: And I talked to my kid the other day about it.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_01: And he, and I goes, Hey, guess what?
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_01: Cause he was kind of complaining.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_01: And I said, guess what?
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_01: Hasn't changed your life at all.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_01: It's all good.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_01: And guess what?
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_01: Your grades are better.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_01: And I think there's something to it.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_01: So we just need to be focused on it and we'll get there.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_00: Great points.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: Well,
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: Brian,
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: one of the things that we're doing here is we're going through all of these
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: legislative races.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_00: We've already covered the Senate.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_00: Now it's time to talk about the House of Representatives.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: And I think where I'd like to start,
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: if it makes sense for you,
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know how you arrange your notes,
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: but...
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: let's talk about the four seats that democrats to think they can win and let's talk
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: about where those seats are at right so i'm gonna uh run through and i would say
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: the one that they really want badly is house district 22.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_00: i don't think we have any majority minority house districts but this one is the
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_00: closest it has the highest non-white population and
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_00: Mr. Massage himself, Anthony Medina, lost this in two years ago to Tracy Kramer.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: Tracy's running again.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_00: Democrats with the candidate Leslie Munoz, I think is her name.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_00: Kind of, you know, union activist type.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: Running hard, they believe and talk about that in a presidential year that they can win this seat.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_00: And I've I've I've repeated this to them.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_00: I said that is a great talking point.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: Sounds good.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: It's one of four seats, by the way, the Republicans hold that Joe Biden won in 2020.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_00: I said, here's your problem with your talking point.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_00: You have to assume that voters are going to revert to their 2020 behavior,
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_00: their 2016 behavior,
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_00: their 2012 behavior.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: And especially with the Hispanic voting population,
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: we see poll after poll nationally showing Democrats win the Hispanic vote.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_00: But the margin is shrinking and shrinking rapidly.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_00: And if those trends don't reverse, they're not going to win the seat.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_00: That's my basic take on it.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_00: You want to take us a little deeper on this?
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_01: No, I will.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_01: And they still don't want to give up on it because Munoz has dropped, what, 300 grand in broadcast TV?
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, they have to.
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_00: I think they have to compete.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_01: But it's so crazy because the seat goes from Northeast Salem, you know, up to Woodburn.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_01: So it's this weird little sliver.
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_01: It's the smallest house district in the state.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_01: And they're spending 300 grand on broadcast TV in Portland to reach these voters.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_00: Crazy.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_01: A classic mix of talk about just blowing money.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_01: Some media buyer is happy.
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_01: But I think you're right.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_01: Tracy's outraged.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_01: Munoz,
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_01: Representative Kramer's raised $423,000,
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_01: which is really impressive,
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_01: even for an incumbent,
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_01: for her to haul in that amount of money.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_01: She's obviously got a bunch of support from her other members, which has been great.
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_01: But we know this one was a tough one.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_01: Republicans were trying to win this seat off and on over the last 20 years, and they just couldn't do it.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_01: And we got it done last cycle.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_01: One of the best pickups we got last cycle, and it was really,
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_01: Really pretty cool to see.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_01: And Tracy and I won a bottle of liquor from her husband, Jake, because we won this seat.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm pretty excited about that.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_01: It's since gone.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_01: So Jake, if you're listening, I could use another one.
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_01: But it wasn't Pappy Van Winkle, don't worry.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_01: And then the other thing that I've noticed, so this was a minus 7.4% to us, to Republicans.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_01: January 23, it's now only minus 6.7%.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_01: So what you just said, the trend is not good for them.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_01: Nope.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_01: And that's for a house seat to move seven tenths of a point in a year and a half is
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_01: pretty good movement for that seat.
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_01: So it really is moving our way.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_01: And guess what?
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_01: I think Reb Kramer's done a dang good job as a representative.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that's also part of it.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_01: So they're going to try to buy their way to victory here.
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_01: I think they're going to run into a wall then on... Nice.
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_01: Nice.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_01: On that because this was also, by the way, one of our pickups that we got with Congressman Walden.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_01: So I don't think he's excited to let it go back to the other side.
• 10:21
  SPEAKER_01: So, and...
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_01: The reason why is because of these trends,
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_01: like the seats,
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_01: these four seats that we talked about,
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_01: ones that we picked up last cycle.
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_01: The reason why they're so they're so great is every one of them now is trending
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_01: Republican from that time.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_01: So that's what I really like about these four seats and us holding the 25 seats in
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_01: the House is just the simple fact that these seats have all gotten better.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: Since 20 and you and they were one in 2022 in a year that was expected, but not actually a red way.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: So you won them in a what I would call a competitive year, not a hard Republican year.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_00: In a hard Republican year, you guys were looking at not for pickups, but more like six or eight.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_00: So there's there's room to grow there for the ours.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_00: So next door, just just a hair south.
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_00: The Salem boot.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_00: If you look at House District 21, looks kind of like a boot, kind of like a combat boot.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_00: The candidate for Republicans not wearing combat boots.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_00: It's attorney Kevin Mannix, a well-known political figure in Oregon.
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_00: And he won this seat.
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_00: by it looks like about six points two years ago almost six points and this one I
• 11:42
  SPEAKER_00: think is one that Democrats want and they're running but one of the things I've
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_00: noticed kind of talking to his camp Dems are only running heavy negative against
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_00: Mannix and typically this is just how I look at it if you're running positive and
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_00: negative it's a competitive race if you're running only positive
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_00: You're probably up pretty good.
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_00: And if you're running only negative, you're probably losing.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_00: And so my guess is that Virginia Stapleton,
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_00: the Democrat from the Salem City Council,
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_00: is probably losing this race.
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_00: And I mean, one of the things that Mannix hit her on is voting against affordable housing in Salem.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, not usually a good thing to do.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_00: She was worried about the traffic, the parking situation there.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_00: So that's why she voted against affordable housing.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm sure everybody without a house or with that would like to buy a house is
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_00: pretty excited about that.
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_00: But I just don't think I think Democrats say they got an amazing recruit.
• 12:35
  SPEAKER_00: I do not think Virginia Stapleton's a very good candidate.
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_00: And Kevin Mannix is sort of like Trump,
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_00: not in the sense that he's he behaves like Trump,
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_00: but because people already know him.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_00: They know that he worked on crime ballot initiatives.
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_00: And also, you know, as you pointed out, DA's race in Portland, crime was kind of an issue there.
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_00: They're running against Mannix on crime.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_00: I do not think that's going to work.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_00: I think people kind of know who Mannix is on crime.
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_00: He's tough on crime.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_00: He's been a Democrat.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_00: He's been a Republican.
• 13:05
  SPEAKER_00: He's been a Republican for a long time now.
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_00: He isn't the world's hardest right Republican.
• 13:11
  SPEAKER_00: He's sort of, you know, Tim can open the sense that maybe he was more conservative and then has moved.
• 13:17
  SPEAKER_00: He represents his district.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_00: So I think, again, this is one that...
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_00: They got to put on the board because they got to say they're going after it.
• 13:24
  SPEAKER_00: But I do not think that at the end of the day,
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_00: if they've got,
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_00: a final million to spend,
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_00: that it's going to end up in this district.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_01: It's all good points.
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_01: You know, Salem pretty well.
• 13:35
  SPEAKER_01: And Kevin's consultant, you know, David Collado, who we both know well.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, they know Salem well.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_01: They know these neighborhoods.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_01: They know how they perform.
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_01: They know how to win in them.
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_01: I think, you know, Stapleton, didn't she also vote for the payroll tax?
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_01: Wasn't she kind of behind that, the Salem payroll tax?
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so that's not good.
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_01: That'll hurt.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_01: And that one failed pretty, pretty miserably.
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_01: I think that that's a tough kill.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_01: Kevin's raised 400,000 to her 122.
• 14:02
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, but if you're Dems, right, you gotta, you gotta throw some money out there.
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_01: It's a, you know, minus what I got it here at minus 3.7.
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_01: It was, and now it's only a minus 3.6.
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_01: So it hasn't moved as much.
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_01: So maybe they're thinking, you know, there's, there's a little bit of movement there.
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_01: Kevin does a pretty good job of running the middle.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_01: I would say that he's a center-right Republican.
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_01: He's probably further right on some issues and a little further left on some other issues.
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_01: Like walkouts.
• 14:35
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, he's very well known.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_00: This was a reference to when Kevin Mannix was trying to helpfully negotiate the end
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_00: of the walkout,
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_00: which we did not ask him to do.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_00: Inside joke.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_01: I only fear here is probably turnout could be an issue, I think.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_01: I think that that's also a fear that I have for Tracy Kramer,
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_01: being that they're kind of next to each other.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_01: There is some CD5, some CD6 kind of flowing through both of these.
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_01: So that should help, I would think, for Republicans to turn out and all the things.
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_00: So Mike, just step on the gas here with the advertising and GTV efforts.
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, that would be my biggest concern.
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_01: I think Kevin's a tough one to attack.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_01: there's not a lot that he's really – you could go after him for being old,
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_01: I guess,
• 15:35
  SPEAKER_01: due to Joe Biden.
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_00: Virginia – oh, I do have to point this out.
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_00: Virginia Stapleton's main piece of her campaign, her social media is –
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_00: wild.
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_00: She's got a TikTok account.
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_00: She's doing all of the trends.
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_00: She does some of the weirdest stuff,
• 15:51
  SPEAKER_00: including this one TikTok where,
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_00: so I'm a Bears fan,
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_00: so I was aware when the Bears picked Caleb Williams as the number one pick.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_00: They traded up to get him and quarterback, okay?
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_00: There was,
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_00: I can't remember if it was,
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_00: it couldn't have been the draft room,
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_00: but there was a room of Bears fans watching who did not want them to pick Caleb Williams,
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_00: and so they announced with the number one pick,
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_00: the Bears select
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_00: caleb williams and then just booing virginia stapleton used that audio in her reel
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_00: about how her being you know kind of implying she's the number one pick in the
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_00: number one race she left the booing in the audio i'm like why i'm no social media
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_00: expert but do you really want audio of people booing you on social media
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_00: So like she's leaning into this being young,
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_00: this TikTok thing,
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_00: which is obviously in contrast to Maddox,
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_00: but she's not doing a very good job of it.
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_00: It is strange to me.
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_00: I know I'm not the youngest person.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_00: I can't.
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_00: One of my one of my, you know, slightly younger friends was talking about sending something on Snapchat.
• 16:48
  SPEAKER_00: And I was like, what are you, 14?
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_00: Like, come on.
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_00: Anyway, but I said the point that out because it's hilarious.
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_00: So go watch for entertainment value.
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_00: Virginia Stapleton's social media is hilarious and bad.
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_01: I haven't watched it, so I'll have to go take a look.
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_01: I do enjoy a good laugh on social.
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_00: So let's drive up the coast, drive up Highway 101.
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_00: Did I get that right?
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_00: And this 32nd District with a wonderful guy named Cyrus Javity, the Republican incumbent.
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_00: He was elected by 2.4 points two years ago.
• 17:28
  SPEAKER_00: Running against not Logan Lady anymore.
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_00: This list has not been updated with Andy Davis now,
• 17:34
  SPEAKER_00: an Astoria city councilor,
• 17:35
  SPEAKER_00: I believe a Democrat candidate.
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_00: This is a district that voted, you know, a little more blue for U.S.
• 17:41
  SPEAKER_00: Senate, almost nine points for president dead, even like the last two.
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_00: presidential elections, a lean Republican for governor by three points.
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_00: So it's kind of all over the place and a very competitive environment.
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_00: Javity's one who's done a pretty good job,
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_00: again,
• 18:00
  SPEAKER_00: hanging out in that middle area,
• 18:01
  SPEAKER_00: I think not going too hard right,
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_00: certainly not going hard left.
• 18:06
  SPEAKER_00: And I think...
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_00: I'm hot take Logan lady will do better than Andy Davis,
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_00: but Logan left to get a real job because the legislature doesn't pay anything.
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_00: Andy Davis, the last minute swap in.
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_00: I actually think Logan ladies name ID was an asset that Democrats lost here and they didn't pick up.
• 18:25
  SPEAKER_00: Uh,
• 18:25
  SPEAKER_00: there was a couple of big names floating around that would have brought real star
• 18:28
  SPEAKER_00: and fundraising and firepower.
• 18:30
  SPEAKER_00: They didn't get those guys.
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_00: They got, you know, white bread, Andy Davis.
• 18:34
  SPEAKER_00: It's about the whitest bread name that's out there.
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_00: i'm just saying so this is my hot take sorry ben sorry majority leader ben uh this
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_00: one i i feel like actually didn't go your way this time i think he'll claim that
• 18:48
  SPEAKER_01: they it wasn't it wasn't his you know he wasn't there when they were recruiting
• 18:52
  SPEAKER_01: certainly he wasn't in control of that but it does sound like a republican name
• 18:57
  SPEAKER_01: andy davis i'll give you certainly not it's like somebody we would recruit andy
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_01: davis and irish gravity right
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_01: So true.
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_01: I love Cyrus.
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_01: I've known Rep Javity now for a couple of years.
• 19:14
  SPEAKER_01: I think he fits that district, even though his name doesn't.
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_01: You know, he's really come to become a staple on the coast and doing his work there.
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_01: I think the calculation was that maybe they have a better shot at this district
• 19:32
  SPEAKER_01: when the Senate seats up next time and they can try to run two together.
• 19:37
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_01: Put some momentum behind it.
• 19:40
  SPEAKER_01: At the time, you had Biden running against Trump, which...
• 19:44
  SPEAKER_01: probably i think if they could go back and redo it with a with a harris ticket i
• 19:48
  SPEAKER_01: bet you know they would find a female or something that fits more their their
• 19:53
  SPEAKER_01: strategy that would fall in line there because i think to your point this district
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_01: is all over the place and if taken for granted you you know democrat can sweep this
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_01: district up i mean in 2020 um
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_01: Even though it was a redistricted, but mostly stayed the same.
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_01: You know, it was the most expensive house race.
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_01: I think it still actually is the most expensive house race that we've had.
• 20:17
  SPEAKER_01: So when Rep Weber won it.
• 20:22
  SPEAKER_01: uh back in 2020 so when we took it wrestled it from the d's as part of the takeover
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_01: of the coast so um you know javity can't take it for granted he's raised three
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_01: hundred twenty four thousand dollars so he's put some you know he's definitely put
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_01: some time into fundraising and davis hasn't really done a
• 20:42
  SPEAKER_01: I don't see the Dems going after this one.
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_01: It's a tough one to buy media in because you get – it's Portland media again for just the coast.
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_01: You're buying Portland media.
• 20:52
  SPEAKER_01: There's, I think, three cable zones up there too, so it makes it very –
• 20:58
  SPEAKER_01: disgruntling to as a buying scenario so you're stuck with mail and kind of like
• 21:04
  SPEAKER_01: local radio because you got all these like real independent towns right you got
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_01: seaside and telemoke and astoria and all these like towns that aren't really you
• 21:12
  SPEAKER_01: know they they're
• 21:14
  SPEAKER_01: they're not all the same right they're very different and and you can't go to one
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_01: you can't go to pacific city and then drive over to tillamook and have the same
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_01: issues at the same town halls like so you're really struck knowing your homework in
• 21:26
  SPEAKER_01: in these coastal towns so i i would imagine that they don't do a whole bunch in
• 21:32
  SPEAKER_01: this one and they focus more on those two salem seats is my thinking
• 21:38
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_00: And then the final one, House District 52.
• 21:44
  SPEAKER_00: To me, this is the least of the vulnerable seats here.
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_00: For instance,
• 21:50
  SPEAKER_00: the margin was five points for Jeff Helfrich,
• 21:53
  SPEAKER_00: the Republican leader,
• 21:55
  SPEAKER_00: voted for governor by almost the same margin.
• 21:58
  SPEAKER_00: Democrat for president, but I just...
• 22:02
  SPEAKER_00: I have never seen this one as being super competitive.
• 22:06
  SPEAKER_00: The Democrat here,
• 22:07
  SPEAKER_00: Nick Walden,
• 22:08
  SPEAKER_00: Poubon,
• 22:10
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 22:10
  SPEAKER_00: maybe he changed his middle name to Walden just to get that notoriety.
• 22:13
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 22:15
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe he's related.
• 22:16
  SPEAKER_00: We can ask Greg.
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_00: I think I heard he wasn't, but who knows here.
• 22:23
  SPEAKER_00: But I think he's a kind of a weird guy.
• 22:25
  SPEAKER_00: uh you look at his twitter uh i'll just link a couple of his tweets which he should
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_00: definitely delete um kind of yeah not again no no star recruiting here and i just
• 22:37
  SPEAKER_00: don't i think democrats need a much better candidate somebody with local government
• 22:41
  SPEAKER_00: experience to really put a lot um behind this guy yeah behind this race
• 22:49
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
• 22:49
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if having the name Walden helps you because I think Congressman Walden
• 22:54
  SPEAKER_01: lost Hood River in 2018.
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_01: That's right.
• 22:56
  SPEAKER_00: That's right.
• 22:57
  SPEAKER_00: So he tried to be smart.
• 22:59
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe he's going to vote against them thinking they're related, right?
• 23:02
  SPEAKER_00: It didn't work.
• 23:03
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 23:03
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think it's – I think Rep Helfrich, Leader Helfrich should be just fine.
• 23:08
  SPEAKER_01: I think he's got to do the work.
• 23:10
  SPEAKER_01: He's got to do the –
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_01: The town halls and all the things and go up and down the district that he did when he won this seat.
• 23:17
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, you gotta, you gotta treat it like it matters.
• 23:21
  SPEAKER_01: Um,
• 23:21
  SPEAKER_01: but it doesn't appear cause I really think that East Gresham,
• 23:25
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 23:25
  SPEAKER_01: going and it goes over the top of Sandy.
• 23:27
  SPEAKER_01: So it's kind of North that area there should carry him to victory.
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_01: Pretty strongly, I think.
• 23:33
  SPEAKER_01: And I think the Dow's,
• 23:34
  SPEAKER_01: which is the other part of this district,
• 23:36
  SPEAKER_01: that's and everything else kind of is pretty blue.
• 23:38
  SPEAKER_01: Hood River and kind of like the Mount Hood area is all pretty blue.
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_01: But I think the Dow's was kind of the purple area of this.
• 23:45
  SPEAKER_01: And he did a really good job of carrying the Dow's.
• 23:48
  SPEAKER_01: Last time.
• 23:49
  SPEAKER_01: So I think that and I think that area is going to continue to move to the right.
• 23:54
  SPEAKER_01: So I think he should be fine.
• 23:56
  SPEAKER_01: It's really just a matter of doing the work,
• 23:59
  SPEAKER_01: spending the money,
• 24:00
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 24:01
  SPEAKER_01: and doing the mail pieces and stuff and talk about it.
• 24:03
  SPEAKER_01: And he's done a good job of delivering some dollars back to.
• 24:06
  SPEAKER_01: the communities there and, and all the things, I mean, they got the new bridge.
• 24:10
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, you know, what more do they want?
• 24:12
  SPEAKER_01: You know?
• 24:13
  SPEAKER_01: So, but you're right.
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_01: I think you're, it should be fine.
• 24:16
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if it's the safest of the four.
• 24:19
  SPEAKER_01: We'll find out.
• 24:20
  SPEAKER_01: I think that he's maybe more like the third safest of these would be my, would be my opinion.
• 24:27
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll see if we, if we win, maybe we'll have to rank.
• 24:30
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, let's rank them real quick.
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_00: Well, here's one of Nick's weird tweets.
• 24:35
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not ready to get rid of democracy over the price of a carton of eggs.
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_00: Don't know anybody who's proposing that.
• 24:41
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not ready to burn down the country over the price of a gallon of gas.
• 24:46
  SPEAKER_00: Again, not something anyone is suggesting doing.
• 24:49
  SPEAKER_00: Weird stuff.
• 24:51
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 24:52
  SPEAKER_00: Rankings.
• 24:53
  SPEAKER_00: You want to do yours first?
• 24:54
  SPEAKER_00: You want me to do mine first?
• 24:55
  SPEAKER_00: I just marked mine, I think.
• 24:57
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 24:58
  SPEAKER_01: Go for it.
• 24:58
  SPEAKER_01: I'll rank them from who wins the most to who wins the least.
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 25:04
  SPEAKER_01: But I think they all win.
• 25:05
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think the Democrats actually pull out any victories here.
• 25:09
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 25:09
  SPEAKER_01: I think Kevin Mannix gets the largest margin of victory, then Jeff Helfrich, then Javity, then Kramer.
• 25:17
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 25:19
  SPEAKER_00: I like that.
• 25:20
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to switch up a little bit and I'm going to I'm going to rank mine with
• 25:24
  SPEAKER_00: slightly different criteria.
• 25:26
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to pretend I'm the Democrat majority leader and I'm going to say I have to triage these races.
• 25:31
  SPEAKER_00: I got to say, where are we spending our dollars first?
• 25:33
  SPEAKER_00: So I would not put any money and I would say the safest one is health rich to be
• 25:38
  SPEAKER_00: consistent with myself here.
• 25:40
  SPEAKER_00: I would say next safest is Kramer.
• 25:43
  SPEAKER_00: I really believe that this district is a Republican district now, and it isn't going back.
• 25:49
  SPEAKER_00: Not until the trends change in terms of minority voters and who they're going for.
• 25:56
  SPEAKER_00: Right now,
• 25:56
  SPEAKER_00: they're going for Republicans,
• 25:57
  SPEAKER_00: and Democrats have done nothing to reverse the slide besides play the regular
• 26:02
  SPEAKER_00: identity politics game,
• 26:03
  SPEAKER_00: which they've been doing for years now.
• 26:06
  SPEAKER_00: So then I'll do Mannix and just a little bit because,
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 26:13
  SPEAKER_00: Kramer,
• 26:13
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 26:14
  SPEAKER_00: has the benefit of the district moving her direction,
• 26:16
  SPEAKER_00: whereas he does not.
• 26:18
  SPEAKER_00: I think he still wins, but maybe a little closer just because they're trying what they've tried to do.
• 26:23
  SPEAKER_00: And they did this at the Salem Senate seat.
• 26:24
  SPEAKER_00: They're trying to carve up Salem in a way that makes it so Republicans can't win it anymore.
• 26:29
  SPEAKER_00: And they did that successfully on the Senate side.
• 26:31
  SPEAKER_00: They haven't been able to get there on the House side just because of.
• 26:34
  SPEAKER_00: These lines and Woodburn being such a problem.
• 26:37
  SPEAKER_00: So and then I'll say number one is still Javity.
• 26:40
  SPEAKER_00: Those numbers for some of the higher offices are still really heavy Democrat.
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_00: It's not like Dick Anderson seat or some of the other coastal seats that have swung hard even to Trump.
• 26:50
  SPEAKER_00: This district is not yet a Trump district.
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_00: So that's why I sort of think that he could be potentially in the most trouble.
• 26:56
  SPEAKER_00: But again, I still believe that he wins the end of the day.
• 26:58
  SPEAKER_00: Ours go for four.
• 27:01
  SPEAKER_00: So the way you'd know on election night if we were having a bad night would be if
• 27:05
  SPEAKER_00: one of these four were going down.
• 27:07
  SPEAKER_00: And obviously one of them could be behind the tiny bit and win with late ballots.
• 27:12
  SPEAKER_00: The trend has been that Republicans are winning some of the late ballots.
• 27:14
  SPEAKER_00: But if they're down by five or more, you start to really get concerned for how the night's going to go.
• 27:21
  SPEAKER_00: good good takes that'll be interesting to see all right so now we pivot to the i
• 27:27
  SPEAKER_00: would say this side of the map i don't know as well in terms of the dim
• 27:32
  SPEAKER_00: opportunities right we're kind of going based on the districts that were close last
• 27:38
  SPEAKER_00: time you mean but opportunities
• 27:41
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, Republican opportunities.
• 27:43
  SPEAKER_00: You're right.
• 27:43
  SPEAKER_00: Democrat defense.
• 27:44
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_00: There's a clear number one race, and I think we should just start with that one.
• 27:50
  SPEAKER_00: House District 53.
• 27:52
  SPEAKER_00: It is a race that Republicans,
• 27:56
  SPEAKER_00: and specifically the Republican candidate two years ago,
• 27:59
  SPEAKER_00: whose name we will not mention.
• 28:02
  SPEAKER_00: lost this race this was a incredibly winnable race that was lost by the candidate
• 28:08
  SPEAKER_00: and there were any number of things that went wrong you know there's there's a few
• 28:13
  SPEAKER_00: of these races the senate race in salem from a couple of years ago um that i can
• 28:18
  SPEAKER_00: you know you can think of that that happened there with um uh in 2020 where a lot
• 28:25
  SPEAKER_00: of things were going wrong and
• 28:27
  SPEAKER_00: If one or two of those things go wrong, you win the race, but all 10 of them went wrong.
• 28:32
  SPEAKER_00: So you lost, right?
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_00: This is one of those seats where ours should have held the seat, and they didn't.
• 28:40
  SPEAKER_00: So it's one where for president voted Republican in 2016,
• 28:46
  SPEAKER_00: voted Democrat in 2020,
• 28:48
  SPEAKER_00: but a three-point swing,
• 28:49
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 28:50
  SPEAKER_00: It's still in that middle territory where it's moving around.
• 28:52
  SPEAKER_00: Voted for Drazen by 1.5%.
• 28:56
  SPEAKER_00: Democrats won it two years ago, Emerson Levy 1.3.
• 29:00
  SPEAKER_00: She's got a very well-recruited and very qualified opponent,
• 29:04
  SPEAKER_00: Carrie Lopez,
• 29:06
  SPEAKER_00: who we've had on the program,
• 29:07
  SPEAKER_00: a school board member.
• 29:10
  SPEAKER_00: And is this race,
• 29:13
  SPEAKER_00: Brian,
• 29:13
  SPEAKER_00: are you seeing it continue to turn into the dogfight that everybody thinks it
• 29:17
  SPEAKER_00: should be this cycle?
• 29:19
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, no, for sure.
• 29:20
  SPEAKER_01: And the money indicates that, right?
• 29:22
  SPEAKER_01: The money flowing to Emerson Levy, $344,000, you know, a couple hundred.
• 29:27
  SPEAKER_01: and then 200,000 to gary lopez you know and so they're both compared to the other
• 29:32
  SPEAKER_01: races that we'll we'll talk about i mean it it's clearly well one carrie's done her
• 29:38
  SPEAKER_01: job in fundraising for herself right i mean that's yeah that's been huge and so is
• 29:44
  SPEAKER_01: emerson to be honest with you so she's she's been able to drag a lot of money out
• 29:48
  SPEAKER_01: of the lobby and all the things and she's tried to
• 29:52
  SPEAKER_01: you know, have the votes that she needs to have to be considered that moderate in this race.
• 29:58
  SPEAKER_01: And they had a debate last night on KTVZ and they,
• 30:03
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 30:03
  SPEAKER_01: I even had a few representatives text me and they're like,
• 30:06
  SPEAKER_01: draw,
• 30:07
  SPEAKER_01: it was a draw,
• 30:08
  SPEAKER_01: you know?
• 30:09
  SPEAKER_01: And I think this is, this is one that could come down to,
• 30:15
  SPEAKER_01: Not two votes, but it could be close.
• 30:18
  SPEAKER_00: I think it'll be one where,
• 30:20
  SPEAKER_00: regardless of who's ahead,
• 30:22
  SPEAKER_00: both candidates are going to be following up with the people whose signatures are
• 30:26
  SPEAKER_00: messed up,
• 30:26
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 30:27
  SPEAKER_00: There's going to be a ballot chase potential here, for sure.
• 30:30
  SPEAKER_01: It could,
• 30:31
  SPEAKER_01: and there's another factor at play,
• 30:34
  SPEAKER_01: which is Laurie Chavez-Dreamer's race against Bynum,
• 30:38
  SPEAKER_01: which is really...
• 30:40
  SPEAKER_01: kind of galvanized both the bases.
• 30:44
  SPEAKER_01: And so we should see a super high turnout in this race.
• 30:47
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 30:48
  SPEAKER_01: with the presidential year last year,
• 30:49
  SPEAKER_01: last year we had,
• 30:50
  SPEAKER_01: this was the highest voter turnout district.
• 30:53
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 30:54
  SPEAKER_01: Because of Lori Chavez, Jamie McLeod Skinner race.
• 30:56
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 30:57
  SPEAKER_01: So we were, we were breaching 90% and Republicans and Democrats, which is just unheard of.
• 31:02
  SPEAKER_01: And in a presidential year, I, we could see a 94% voter turnout.
• 31:06
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 31:08
  SPEAKER_01: But if one gets 2% more than the other, that's who wins this race.
• 31:15
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 31:15
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 31:15
  SPEAKER_01: to be honest with you,
• 31:16
  SPEAKER_01: I think that the NAVs are probably breaking somewhere down the middle of this.
• 31:22
  SPEAKER_01: I think that it's the only thing that scares me about this race that I caution is
• 31:29
  SPEAKER_01: the voter registration has slipped a little bit from 2.7% to a little over 3% now
• 31:34
  SPEAKER_01: to the Democrat side.
• 31:35
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 31:37
  SPEAKER_01: Not moving fast, but moving a little bit.
• 31:39
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 31:41
  SPEAKER_01: But it's concerning, and it's not outside of our win factor, right?
• 31:44
  SPEAKER_01: It's still lower than all of the races we just talked about.
• 31:50
  SPEAKER_01: Republicans won.
• 31:51
  SPEAKER_01: So we still have that that factors in our favor.
• 31:55
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that's why we're competitive here.
• 31:58
  SPEAKER_01: I think that's why that this one is going to be a dogfight.
• 32:02
  SPEAKER_01: And I think you have two candidates that both fashion themselves as,
• 32:06
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 32:07
  SPEAKER_01: moderate leaning left,
• 32:08
  SPEAKER_01: moderate leaning right.
• 32:09
  SPEAKER_01: And probably, you know, I would say Emerson's way more left on, you know,
• 32:14
  SPEAKER_01: you know, climates and energy and the things that she advocates for.
• 32:18
  SPEAKER_01: And then I think you got Carrie,
• 32:19
  SPEAKER_01: that's probably a little bit more right on,
• 32:22
  SPEAKER_01: on a transgender and some of those abortion and some of those things that,
• 32:26
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 32:26
  SPEAKER_01: we're,
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_01: we're then on the other stuff.
• 32:28
  SPEAKER_01: They're both probably pretty moderate in the middle there.
• 32:31
  SPEAKER_01: So, yeah.
• 32:32
  SPEAKER_01: You do got a very similar set of candidates here.
• 32:37
  SPEAKER_01: And I would say one that Democrats would love to run in a red district and one that
• 32:42
  SPEAKER_01: Republicans love to run in a blue district.
• 32:44
  SPEAKER_01: So it really is going to be a clash.
• 32:48
  SPEAKER_01: I think it'll be a fun month to be involved in this race with it.
• 32:53
  SPEAKER_01: I think they've been cordial with each other.
• 32:57
  SPEAKER_01: um the debate was cordial they were both even agreeing with each other i think a
• 33:01
  SPEAKER_01: couple of times let's maybe want to pull my hair out if i had any nice you know
• 33:06
  SPEAKER_01: don't ever agree with them but uh you know carrie and i talked about that and it
• 33:12
  SPEAKER_01: was kind of funny and i think probably emerson's people said the same thing what
• 33:16
  SPEAKER_01: are you doing agreeing with her uh but yeah i would say i would say a
• 33:20
  SPEAKER_00: A tiny bit of agreement isn't bad because I think it gives you an opportunity to say,
• 33:25
  SPEAKER_00: yeah,
• 33:25
  SPEAKER_00: we agree about this,
• 33:26
  SPEAKER_00: but here's where we disagree and where it matters.
• 33:28
  SPEAKER_00: You can kind of flip it that way sometimes, but you got to be talented to be able to do that.
• 33:33
  SPEAKER_00: And I think one of the great things is that Kerry is a talented candidate,
• 33:37
  SPEAKER_00: one of the more talented candidates I've come across for being new to state ledge.
• 33:42
  SPEAKER_00: And that's the school board difference, I think.
• 33:43
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 33:44
  SPEAKER_00: When you have candidates who are brand new versus candidates who run even for
• 33:48
  SPEAKER_00: something local before,
• 33:49
  SPEAKER_00: that's a candidate quality plus up or whatever you want to call it.
• 33:55
  SPEAKER_01: The only thing I'll say is,
• 33:56
  SPEAKER_01: and I don't think we raised just my last piece and we can move forward,
• 34:00
  SPEAKER_01: but Emerson should have ran for the Senate.
• 34:04
  SPEAKER_01: As soon as your dad couldn't run again, she should have ran for the Senate.
• 34:09
  SPEAKER_01: We wouldn't have been able to recruit Michael Summers.
• 34:12
  SPEAKER_00: Would have been a walk.
• 34:13
  SPEAKER_01: You could have told Anthony Broadman, you go take a backseat.
• 34:17
  SPEAKER_01: You don't get the front seat your first time running.
• 34:20
  SPEAKER_01: And she should have ran for Senate.
• 34:22
  SPEAKER_01: We would have not been able to recruit anybody of substance to run against her.
• 34:28
  SPEAKER_01: And then she would not.
• 34:29
  SPEAKER_01: Because even if she ekes this one out,
• 34:34
  SPEAKER_01: Her best case scenario is that they're going to have a hard time recruiting somebody next time.
• 34:39
  SPEAKER_01: But she's going to be in a battle every time until that voter – because once
• 34:43
  SPEAKER_01: there's a bad Democrat year for her,
• 34:45
  SPEAKER_01: if she even ekes this one out,
• 34:47
  SPEAKER_01: she's going to get wiped out.
• 34:48
  SPEAKER_01: Whereas you can, in that Senate seat, you can – You'd be there forever.
• 34:52
  SPEAKER_00: She'll be there forever if she wanted.
• 34:53
  SPEAKER_01: It was a bad, bad play by her.
• 34:57
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 34:58
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that,
• 34:59
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 35:00
  SPEAKER_00: maybe she felt some loyalty,
• 35:02
  SPEAKER_00: but I'll tell you,
• 35:04
  SPEAKER_00: if she's down in the polling,
• 35:06
  SPEAKER_00: she'll get triaged.
• 35:07
  SPEAKER_00: Like, it'll happen.
• 35:09
  SPEAKER_00: The loyalty doesn't go both ways with leadership.
• 35:12
  SPEAKER_00: Because you have to play the map to win the most seats.
• 35:15
  SPEAKER_00: And, yes, you want to care about the people.
• 35:18
  SPEAKER_00: But at the end of the day, like, that can't be the term.
• 35:21
  SPEAKER_01: Rayfield was so loyal, Regan.
• 35:24
  SPEAKER_01: He quit being Speaker to go run for, you know, Attorney General.
• 35:29
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 35:30
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't blame him for that.
• 35:31
  SPEAKER_00: He saw an opportunity.
• 35:32
  SPEAKER_00: It's politics.
• 35:33
  SPEAKER_01: You do what you got to do.
• 35:34
  SPEAKER_01: You do what's in the best interest of you.
• 35:36
  SPEAKER_00: Mm-hmm.
• 35:38
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 35:41
  SPEAKER_00: Brian, which of these seats do you think?
• 35:43
  SPEAKER_00: I just want to talk most likely the next most likely.
• 35:46
  SPEAKER_00: That's pretty clearly the most likely Republican flip 53.
• 35:49
  SPEAKER_01: Well, let's run next.
• 35:51
  SPEAKER_01: I'll run down a couple here that I think, you know, based on.
• 35:56
  SPEAKER_01: you know, where they fielded people.
• 35:58
  SPEAKER_01: I'll tell you the ones that I think are out of bounds and we don't really even have to cover them.
• 36:02
  SPEAKER_01: How about that?
• 36:03
  SPEAKER_01: So I think John lively,
• 36:05
  SPEAKER_01: Corey Burkett in Springfield is,
• 36:07
  SPEAKER_00: I love,
• 36:08
  SPEAKER_00: I love Corey Burkett and he should run as soon as lively retires.
• 36:12
  SPEAKER_00: Cause we'll win this seat, but this is, this is just like the coast with Caddy McEwen.
• 36:16
  SPEAKER_00: It's just like this seat with Betty comp.
• 36:19
  SPEAKER_00: The, the, the really solid middle guys can be there.
• 36:22
  SPEAKER_00: Kind of as long as they want once they get established,
• 36:24
  SPEAKER_00: and as soon as they leave,
• 36:25
  SPEAKER_00: it's a totally different game.
• 36:27
  SPEAKER_01: And then I haven't seen the voter registration movement that I thought I would
• 36:31
  SPEAKER_01: continue to see in Springfield,
• 36:32
  SPEAKER_01: and that's a concern for me.
• 36:33
  SPEAKER_01: It stayed flat at 9.1%.
• 36:35
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, yeah, that hurts a little bit.
• 36:38
  SPEAKER_01: I thought it was moving a little bit more.
• 36:40
  SPEAKER_01: I thought they're a little more Trumpy down there in Springfield.
• 36:44
  SPEAKER_01: So I...
• 36:45
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's a tough one for us.
• 36:47
  SPEAKER_01: And I think Lively,
• 36:50
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 36:50
  SPEAKER_01: he's also,
• 36:52
  SPEAKER_01: turns out he's a pretty good candidate too,
• 36:54
  SPEAKER_01: like to your point,
• 36:55
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 36:55
  SPEAKER_01: And it's just a tough lift.
• 36:57
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm not going to waste any, I wouldn't waste any time or money on that one.
• 37:01
  SPEAKER_01: However, you need to remain competitive.
• 37:04
  SPEAKER_01: And then the other one that I will take off the map is Jason Fields and Courtney
• 37:09
  SPEAKER_01: Neron in 26 in Wilsonville.
• 37:12
  SPEAKER_01: That's a rematch.
• 37:15
  SPEAKER_01: They've both raised about the same amount of money, but the voter registration was 6.9% in 2023.
• 37:19
  SPEAKER_01: January now is 7.2.
• 37:20
  SPEAKER_01: So it's trending the other direction.
• 37:26
  SPEAKER_01: I think Kamala Harris completely foobars him and his chance to win this one.
• 37:32
  SPEAKER_01: I think if you had Sleepy Joe still in there,
• 37:36
  SPEAKER_01: maybe there's a shot because you could have some apathy with the Democrats.
• 37:41
  SPEAKER_01: But I think that one's off the board.
• 37:43
  SPEAKER_00: I totally agree.
• 37:44
  SPEAKER_00: For U.S.
• 37:45
  SPEAKER_00: Senate, Ron Wyden won this by 16 points.
• 37:47
  SPEAKER_00: This place... I get it.
• 37:50
  SPEAKER_00: We had it a few years ago.
• 37:52
  SPEAKER_00: This one is done.
• 37:53
  SPEAKER_00: Like, Wilsonville is just... It is blue as can be.
• 37:58
  SPEAKER_00: And not can be as blue as can be.
• 38:02
  SPEAKER_00: And it's just it's not winnable.
• 38:04
  SPEAKER_00: And I do not understand the fascination with this race.
• 38:07
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 38:07
  SPEAKER_00: Three points for governor.
• 38:09
  SPEAKER_00: But I'll just tell you, to win those three points is just like a literal nightmare.
• 38:13
  SPEAKER_00: It's just there aren't any votes there.
• 38:16
  SPEAKER_01: Last three points is very hard to get.
• 38:17
  SPEAKER_01: And a lot of times you have to do a lot of data analysis to really see, are there even three points?
• 38:26
  SPEAKER_01: Are there really that many?
• 38:27
  SPEAKER_01: Or is there enough undecideds that you can carry that last three points and not in this district?
• 38:33
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 38:33
  SPEAKER_00: And I will say this.
• 38:36
  SPEAKER_00: There's a candidate quality problem on the Republican side here.
• 38:40
  SPEAKER_00: And I said this before,
• 38:41
  SPEAKER_00: there's a lot of Republicans who do not like Courtney Neuron,
• 38:43
  SPEAKER_00: and I get that,
• 38:44
  SPEAKER_00: but she has education background and she looks good on a mailer,
• 38:48
  SPEAKER_00: and that's worth quite a bit.
• 38:50
  SPEAKER_01: Sure is.
• 38:51
  SPEAKER_01: It's hard to disagree with that.
• 38:54
  SPEAKER_00: And rematches never favor the loser.
• 38:56
  SPEAKER_00: No, they really do not.
• 38:58
  SPEAKER_00: I don't understand why people haven't figured that out.
• 39:00
  SPEAKER_00: Run for a different office, but rematches are just, they don't work.
• 39:04
  SPEAKER_00: Not for the loser, that's for sure.
• 39:06
  SPEAKER_00: Not for the loser.
• 39:07
  SPEAKER_01: The other one that I'm going to pull off the map is Tom Anderson and David Brown, South Salem.
• 39:14
  SPEAKER_01: Which number district is that?
• 39:15
  SPEAKER_01: I'm sorry.
• 39:17
  19.
• 39:18
  SPEAKER_01: You know, the voter registration just isn't really, you know, it's about eight and a half percent.
• 39:24
  SPEAKER_01: So, and it's been around there.
• 39:26
  SPEAKER_01: It went to two tenths of a point our direction.
• 39:30
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 39:31
  SPEAKER_01: The reason why I'll pull this one off is, one, you got an incumbent.
• 39:36
  SPEAKER_01: I think David Brown's a good candidate.
• 39:38
  SPEAKER_01: I have no problems against him as a candidate.
• 39:42
  SPEAKER_01: I think that Raquel Moore-Green ran in the Senate seat there.
• 39:46
  SPEAKER_01: She lost this House district when we spent over $2 million.
• 39:50
  SPEAKER_01: And she was the quasi incumbent as the state rep moving to Senate.
• 39:55
  SPEAKER_01: Still lost his seat.
• 39:56
  SPEAKER_01: There's a lot of union members that live in this district and they look like NAV voters,
• 40:02
  SPEAKER_01: but they vote left.
• 40:04
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that's in a presidential year and they hate Trump.
• 40:08
  SPEAKER_00: I just won the version of this seat that Raquel won when she was a house member,
• 40:13
  SPEAKER_00: too,
• 40:13
  SPEAKER_00: because here here's the thing they did.
• 40:16
  SPEAKER_00: So Shelley Bossard Davis's district used to be just Albany and it used to be an
• 40:20
  SPEAKER_00: even voter registration,
• 40:22
  SPEAKER_00: but it always vote hard Republican because it's Lynn County.
• 40:25
  SPEAKER_00: What they did was they took like sublimity and all that stuff and Turner just south
• 40:30
  SPEAKER_00: of Salem that used to be a 19 that kind of made this a district competitive.
• 40:34
  SPEAKER_00: They lopped it off and they put it in Shelly Bossard Davis's district.
• 40:37
  SPEAKER_00: And they did that intentionally to make this seat turn hard blue.
• 40:40
  SPEAKER_00: And that's exactly what it did.
• 40:42
  SPEAKER_00: And that was part of the strategy to win the Senate race.
• 40:44
  SPEAKER_00: The Senate race would have been winnable with those areas back in there.
• 40:48
  SPEAKER_00: But they lopped them off on purpose in order to make this more competitive or make
• 40:52
  SPEAKER_00: it easy,
• 40:53
  SPEAKER_00: an easy win for Democrats.
• 40:55
  SPEAKER_00: That's what it is.
• 40:56
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 41:17
  SPEAKER_00: They are not.
• 41:18
  SPEAKER_00: The left has messaged to them pretty hard and mostly on abortion.
• 41:22
  SPEAKER_00: And they've done an effective job in some of these areas in Salem and,
• 41:26
  SPEAKER_00: and Wilsonville and these,
• 41:28
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 41:29
  SPEAKER_00: smaller than Portland,
• 41:30
  SPEAKER_00: but big city communities.
• 41:32
  SPEAKER_01: Well, and districts don't really change their stripes too fast, right?
• 41:35
  SPEAKER_01: It takes a while for them to,
• 41:37
  SPEAKER_01: if they're gradually like the coast was for,
• 41:39
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 41:39
  SPEAKER_01: it took the coast a while,
• 41:41
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 41:41
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 41:42
  SPEAKER_01: To move over to the right.
• 41:44
  SPEAKER_01: So that's kind of where I'm at.
• 41:48
  SPEAKER_01: The District 39, I know people looked at this one.
• 41:53
  SPEAKER_01: It's Janelle Bynum's seat.
• 41:55
  SPEAKER_01: And I think people looked at it because it's an open seat.
• 41:58
  SPEAKER_01: I think, you know, Amy Reiner versus April Dobson, right?
• 42:02
  SPEAKER_01: So you have kind of new fresh faces, newcomers.
• 42:06
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, moving in, I, I think Amy Rainer has done a, you know, a decent job.
• 42:11
  SPEAKER_01: She's been very active.
• 42:12
  SPEAKER_01: She's really done her best.
• 42:14
  SPEAKER_01: I think 2000 and it's a 10, 10 and a half percent voter registration advantage to the Democrats, uh,
• 42:21
  SPEAKER_01: Bynum won it nearly 60, 40, you know, spent a million too.
• 42:25
  SPEAKER_01: She got scared last cycle.
• 42:27
  SPEAKER_01: We,
• 42:27
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 42:28
  SPEAKER_01: we spent what,
• 42:28
  SPEAKER_01: a couple hundred thousand bucks and almost,
• 42:31
  SPEAKER_01: but then Bynum just put the gas on and it performs.
• 42:34
  SPEAKER_01: And this seat has always been fool's gold ever since it was won in 2010 by that,
• 42:40
  SPEAKER_01: that kind of fluke year,
• 42:41
  SPEAKER_01: that snap back from Obama.
• 42:43
  SPEAKER_01: We went at one time and we have, the Republicans have poured millions into
• 42:48
  SPEAKER_01: into trying to recapture this seat,
• 42:49
  SPEAKER_01: mostly into Lori Chavez Dreamer,
• 42:52
  SPEAKER_01: uh,
• 42:52
  SPEAKER_01: trying to beat Bynum,
• 42:53
  SPEAKER_01: but,
• 42:53
  SPEAKER_01: uh,
• 42:54
  SPEAKER_01: it's fool's gold,
• 42:55
  SPEAKER_01: man.
• 42:56
  SPEAKER_01: It doesn't, even if you win it, you don't keep it.
• 43:00
  SPEAKER_01: And that's my problem with this seat.
• 43:01
  SPEAKER_01: So I would rip it off the table.
• 43:04
  SPEAKER_01: I would, I like being competitive there.
• 43:07
  SPEAKER_01: It probably helps Lori and her race to be competitive there.
• 43:11
  SPEAKER_01: It's that top corner, but you can't win it.
• 43:15
  SPEAKER_01: I agree with you.
• 43:18
  SPEAKER_01: What's left?
• 43:19
  SPEAKER_01: I know.
• 43:19
  SPEAKER_01: Hold on.
• 43:20
  SPEAKER_01: I'm getting there.
• 43:20
  SPEAKER_01: I'm going to work a little in my way.
• 43:22
  SPEAKER_01: So the two I'll touch on up in Gresham.
• 43:26
  SPEAKER_01: So I think these – because obviously we're going to try to be competitive in the Senate seat.
• 43:30
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not involved in the House races up there.
• 43:34
  SPEAKER_01: I know the two candidates.
• 43:35
  SPEAKER_01: Paul Dreschler is running against Ricky Ruiz.
• 43:38
  SPEAKER_01: And it's pretty much Gresham.
• 43:40
  SPEAKER_01: And it's got a little bit of the Rockwood Centennial area, House District 50.
• 43:45
  SPEAKER_01: It was 10.8%.
• 43:47
  SPEAKER_01: It's moved to 10.4%.
• 43:49
  SPEAKER_01: We had a very ineffective candidate last cycle that we ended up not putting any money behind, really.
• 43:56
  SPEAKER_01: I think we spent like 60 grand or something at the end of the day.
• 43:59
  SPEAKER_01: She only ended up losing by 900 votes.
• 44:01
  SPEAKER_01: against ricky yeah it performed pretty well but it goes back to what we talked
• 44:05
  SPEAKER_01: about on the senate seat i wouldn't give it up i would i would definitely push into
• 44:11
  SPEAKER_01: that because the district performs how you want it to do regardless of the
• 44:15
  SPEAKER_01: candidate as proven last cycle so um and paul's a small brand are we talking about
• 44:21
  SPEAKER_00: 49 or 50 you said 50 50 yeah okay yeah
• 44:25
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and Paul Dresser is a small business owner, you know, Ricky's, they both, I mean, 75,000 to 78,000.
• 44:31
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, Ricky's kind of done nothing.
• 44:34
  SPEAKER_01: I don't really know what's going on there.
• 44:35
  SPEAKER_01: Um, considering how close his last one is, that is a bit of a surprise.
• 44:39
  SPEAKER_01: It is.
• 44:40
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 44:40
  SPEAKER_01: And in 49, you have Terry tip sword, longtime Troutdale businessman been there.
• 44:44
  SPEAKER_01: He's like six foot seven too.
• 44:46
  SPEAKER_01: So he's kind of like, he's tall, right?
• 44:48
  SPEAKER_01: He's big.
• 44:49
  SPEAKER_01: And, um, it's interesting.
• 44:50
  SPEAKER_01: Like, yeah, you know, when he's in the room, that's for sure.
• 44:53
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, versus Zach Hudson, who's been there a while, uh,
• 44:58
  SPEAKER_01: was on the Troutdale City Council.
• 44:59
  SPEAKER_01: We went after Zach Hudson last time, spent over $600,000.
• 45:02
  SPEAKER_01: Zach beat us by, I don't know, 880 votes, something like that, against the former mayor.
• 45:10
  SPEAKER_01: Terry's raised $67,000.
• 45:10
  SPEAKER_01: Zach's got $114,000.
• 45:11
  SPEAKER_01: This one, again, 13.3%.
• 45:11
  SPEAKER_01: It's a high voter registration disadvantage, but it has moved to 12.9%.
• 45:20
  SPEAKER_01: So, um, I wouldn't take these off the table.
• 45:25
  SPEAKER_01: If I was in charge,
• 45:26
  SPEAKER_01: I would,
• 45:26
  SPEAKER_01: uh,
• 45:27
  SPEAKER_01: I would just,
• 45:28
  SPEAKER_01: cause I would be looking at my voter,
• 45:30
  SPEAKER_01: how that voters performed in 22.
• 45:33
  SPEAKER_01: This is going to be a turnout monster, I think.
• 45:35
  SPEAKER_01: So, um, but I wouldn't take them off the table.
• 45:39
  SPEAKER_01: I think that you got a couple of decently qualified candidates, but I would be concerned that
• 45:44
  SPEAKER_01: They've only raised and I know each of them got 25 grand from Greg Walden.
• 45:49
  SPEAKER_01: So that means they've raised like 40,000 bucks.
• 45:52
  SPEAKER_01: And then if you go back through there,
• 45:54
  SPEAKER_01: I bet they've only raised maybe 10 or 15,000 bucks from the district,
• 45:58
  SPEAKER_01: which would be concerning for me.
• 46:02
  SPEAKER_01: Compared to somebody like Kerry Lopez is raised, you know, six figures.
• 46:06
  SPEAKER_01: So, um, I think that's a tough one.
• 46:09
  SPEAKER_01: Uh,
• 46:10
  SPEAKER_01: the last two is John Masterman in district 48 against how,
• 46:17
  SPEAKER_01: when,
• 46:19
  SPEAKER_01: and how,
• 46:19
  SPEAKER_01: when,
• 46:20
  SPEAKER_01: and John was one of those that I recruited him to run two years ago when he ran and
• 46:26
  SPEAKER_01: he came within,
• 46:28
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 46:28
  SPEAKER_01: geez,
• 46:28
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know,
• 46:29
  SPEAKER_01: uh,
• 46:30
  SPEAKER_01: two and a half percent,
• 46:31
  SPEAKER_01: something like that.
• 46:32
  SPEAKER_01: It
• 46:34
  SPEAKER_01: Against Howe Wynn, she was a newcomer out of the David Douglas area.
• 46:38
  SPEAKER_01: And this is that weird district that kind of has Damascus and the outskirts of boring South Gresham.
• 46:44
  SPEAKER_01: And then it just carves down Foster Road until it hits like 205.
• 46:51
  SPEAKER_01: So it's kind of a very interesting district from that standpoint.
• 46:55
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 46:56
  SPEAKER_01: It's moved to the right a little bit.
• 46:59
  SPEAKER_01: It's moved about two-tenths of a point, which is concerning to me that it hasn't moved enough.
• 47:05
  SPEAKER_01: And the biggest thing that I'm seeing that is Howen is raised and spent nearly $250,000,
• 47:12
  SPEAKER_01: and Masterman is raised $60,000.
• 47:16
  SPEAKER_01: So I think that Howen knows that she didn't have a large margin, so she's putting the effort in.
• 47:24
  SPEAKER_01: This is a very, you know, she's spending a lot of money on TV.
• 47:28
  SPEAKER_01: It's just a weird blob district that fell out of redistricting.
• 47:33
  SPEAKER_01: And these people are blue collar people.
• 47:36
  SPEAKER_01: It's a good opportunity for Republicans.
• 47:40
  SPEAKER_01: I'll go to my same Jason Fields,
• 47:42
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 47:42
  SPEAKER_01: Courtney Neuron thing here that at the end of the day is having a rematch.
• 47:46
  SPEAKER_01: The best thing for you, you know, even though how when I think
• 47:52
  SPEAKER_01: would probably be in my top five for the most unrecognizable state house members in Salem,
• 48:00
  SPEAKER_01: which we should do,
• 48:01
  SPEAKER_01: by the way,
• 48:01
  SPEAKER_01: we should do the,
• 48:03
  SPEAKER_01: we'll do that later.
• 48:04
  SPEAKER_01: Like, who do you, who's there that you have no idea that's there?
• 48:07
  SPEAKER_00: I think top five, that would be great.
• 48:09
  SPEAKER_00: There's one rep I literally cannot remember as a state representative.
• 48:14
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's the same one that both of you and I were thinking of,
• 48:17
  SPEAKER_00: but no,
• 48:17
  SPEAKER_00: it isn't actually,
• 48:18
  SPEAKER_00: I have a different one.
• 48:18
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 48:18
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 48:19
  SPEAKER_01: Let's do that next episode.
• 48:20
  SPEAKER_01: That'd be fun.
• 48:21
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but I, you know what, you can't really, I haven't seen any polling in this race.
• 48:26
  SPEAKER_01: I think I saw some polling early in the summer and mid summer that showed the
• 48:31
  SPEAKER_01: generic ballot about even or so,
• 48:34
  SPEAKER_01: but both candidates are completely unknown for the most part,
• 48:37
  SPEAKER_01: but mastermind has run twice.
• 48:39
  SPEAKER_01: He ran for an ESD afterwards.
• 48:42
  SPEAKER_01: So he's been on the ballot.
• 48:43
  SPEAKER_01: I,
• 48:44
  SPEAKER_01: No, I don't.
• 48:45
  SPEAKER_01: I think he fits the district a little bit more than she does.
• 48:47
  SPEAKER_01: But I think the Democrats will make sure that she wins because I don't think they
• 48:52
  SPEAKER_01: want this one to be competitive.
• 48:54
  SPEAKER_01: No, they don't.
• 48:56
  SPEAKER_01: And it shouldn't with that much voter registration advantage.
• 48:58
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, 12 percent should be out of our reach.
• 49:01
  SPEAKER_00: Well, in my speculation here is like she's running a real campaign.
• 49:05
  SPEAKER_00: The other guys who were close last time aren't.
• 49:08
  SPEAKER_00: There's one or two things that are happening.
• 49:09
  SPEAKER_00: Either their internal show their head and they're not working because of it or.
• 49:15
  SPEAKER_00: They are not they're just not working and their caucuses will freak out and spend money for them.
• 49:21
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, that happens sometimes.
• 49:24
  SPEAKER_00: And so credit to Baldwin for for running like she's got a close race and credit for
• 49:30
  SPEAKER_00: Masterman for making it close despite the fundraising deficit.
• 49:35
  SPEAKER_00: I agree.
• 49:35
  SPEAKER_00: I would put this ahead of a lot of the other districts, actually, that they're trying to win.
• 49:41
  SPEAKER_00: I think that if they wanted,
• 49:43
  SPEAKER_00: I think a lot of people want to put money in other districts and they want to avoid
• 49:46
  SPEAKER_00: this one.
• 49:47
  SPEAKER_00: And I would actually put this towards the top of the list.
• 49:49
  SPEAKER_00: I might put it right below 53, honestly.
• 49:51
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 49:52
  SPEAKER_00: Just because of how it's yeah, it's a little wacky.
• 49:55
  SPEAKER_00: I get it.
• 49:56
  SPEAKER_00: It goes against all of the things we just said about all the other districts about how winnable they are.
• 50:01
  SPEAKER_00: But there are those weird unicorns.
• 50:03
  SPEAKER_00: And,
• 50:03
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 50:04
  SPEAKER_00: sometimes you want to chase a unicorn for a little while until you get to the edge
• 50:08
  SPEAKER_00: of the rainbow and the pot of gold.
• 50:10
  SPEAKER_00: And I think I'm going to layer on to that.
• 50:15
  SPEAKER_01: why I agree with you that this seat would move up in my consideration as well is I
• 50:22
  SPEAKER_01: think it's hard to pull.
• 50:24
  SPEAKER_01: I think the people that answer the phones or the people that don't have jobs and
• 50:28
  SPEAKER_01: stuff like that and they're going to vote D,
• 50:30
  SPEAKER_01: I think that the Ds are spending money because I bet that the generic,
• 50:35
  SPEAKER_01: if it was similar to what I saw,
• 50:37
  SPEAKER_01: and I bet her name ID is probably in the teens.
• 50:42
  SPEAKER_01: So they figured all they ought to do is raise their name ID and then they can move
• 50:47
  SPEAKER_01: this district out of whack versus...
• 50:50
  SPEAKER_01: And I'll give you a nugget here.
• 50:51
  SPEAKER_01: So compared to like Senator Anderson, whose name ID is reaching, if not above 60%.
• 50:58
  SPEAKER_01: and his name ID.
• 51:00
  SPEAKER_01: Whereas if you're in the teens and you're generic,
• 51:02
  SPEAKER_01: that means that's right for being able to,
• 51:05
  SPEAKER_01: that means people don't know who you are and don't care.
• 51:08
  SPEAKER_01: So your ability to get taken over is a real tough, is a real easier one to get to.
• 51:13
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 51:14
  SPEAKER_01: So that would imagine that's why they're spending money.
• 51:17
  SPEAKER_01: I would imagine that there's going to be,
• 51:19
  SPEAKER_01: and I think the polling,
• 51:20
  SPEAKER_01: I think this thing outperforms polling.
• 51:22
  SPEAKER_01: So I agree with you on that one that I, cause it outperformed our, our polling last time.
• 51:28
  SPEAKER_01: And I just think it's a hard one to pull.
• 51:29
  SPEAKER_01: This is a very weird finger district that runs through.
• 51:32
  SPEAKER_01: And I know this.
• 51:33
  SPEAKER_01: I lived on Foster Road up and down that thing.
• 51:35
  SPEAKER_01: And there's so much trash on Foster Road.
• 51:37
  SPEAKER_01: These people are so tired of the trash.
• 51:41
  SPEAKER_01: And the junk that they want changed in that Powell Boulevard,
• 51:45
  SPEAKER_01: Foster Road area,
• 51:47
  SPEAKER_01: it's so sad that I think it will do a lot better than they think.
• 51:51
  SPEAKER_01: So I would make this my flyer one and I'd throw money.
• 51:55
  SPEAKER_01: If I had lots of money,
• 51:57
  SPEAKER_01: I'd throw money at it because I think the Democrats would freak out and spend a ton.
• 52:01
  SPEAKER_01: This is one of those where you could get,
• 52:03
  SPEAKER_01: if you had a lot of money,
• 52:05
  SPEAKER_01: you could get probably seven to eight times your money on this one.
• 52:08
  SPEAKER_00: I totally agree with that.
• 52:10
  SPEAKER_00: And,
• 52:10
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 52:10
  SPEAKER_01: like you were saying earlier,
• 52:11
  SPEAKER_01: like if we spend for every dollar we spend,
• 52:14
  SPEAKER_01: they got to spend five or six,
• 52:16
  SPEAKER_01: maintain it.
• 52:17
  SPEAKER_00: Totally agree.
• 52:18
  SPEAKER_01: And you know what I do here too?
• 52:19
  SPEAKER_01: Nothing but mail.
• 52:21
  SPEAKER_01: I would just run mailers and just say, you're tired of this in your front yard?
• 52:26
  SPEAKER_01: Vote a different way.
• 52:28
  SPEAKER_01: Just flood it with trash.
• 52:33
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's a valid strategy.
• 52:35
  SPEAKER_00: Especially on a flyer race, just keep rolling the mail in it.
• 52:38
  SPEAKER_00: That makes sense.
• 52:39
  SPEAKER_00: You don't really have to keep all of the other pieces moving,
• 52:43
  SPEAKER_00: and it's a lot less expensive than buying TV and digital and all that.
• 52:48
  SPEAKER_01: $100,000 in mail to NAVs.
• 52:51
  SPEAKER_01: man victims buys you probably 14 pieces of mail yep and i buy you know tv all that
• 53:01
  SPEAKER_01: you can't buy cable there it's in some stupid zone it's two half zones that you
• 53:06
  SPEAKER_01: can't buy you can't buy broadcast digital is even hard because it doesn't have its
• 53:10
  SPEAKER_01: own generic zip code so you're you know you're reaching people that aren't in your
• 53:14
  SPEAKER_01: in your deal and i would just i
• 53:16
  SPEAKER_01: I would really, unless you're geofencing or something, which is very difficult to do, too.
• 53:20
  SPEAKER_01: It's unreliable.
• 53:21
  SPEAKER_01: Just mail, man.
• 53:22
  SPEAKER_01: Mail, mail, mail, mail, mail.
• 53:25
  SPEAKER_01: Mail, mail.
• 53:26
  SPEAKER_01: If you're listening out there, mail, mail, mail, mail.
• 53:29
  SPEAKER_00: Look, I love mail.
• 53:30
  SPEAKER_00: It's my favorite medium.
• 53:32
  SPEAKER_00: I've never been,
• 53:34
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 53:34
  SPEAKER_00: like I said,
• 53:35
  SPEAKER_00: one of these days you're going to have to teach me how to do TV because that's
• 53:38
  SPEAKER_00: where the money is.
• 53:39
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of it.
• 53:39
  SPEAKER_00: But I like mail.
• 53:41
  SPEAKER_00: I like coming up with mailers.
• 53:42
  SPEAKER_00: You get creative.
• 53:44
  SPEAKER_00: You can do a few with not a huge budget.
• 53:47
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, we're not going to I'm working on some Albany City Council races.
• 53:50
  SPEAKER_00: and we'll be able to do a couple pieces of mail, and we'll be able to have some fun with them.
• 53:55
  SPEAKER_00: We've got a guy who ran for school board that had two ethics violations while he
• 54:00
  SPEAKER_00: was on the school board,
• 54:01
  SPEAKER_00: and we just absolutely nuked him with those to beat him,
• 54:05
  SPEAKER_00: and he popped his head up again,
• 54:07
  SPEAKER_00: so we're going to have to teach him a lesson again,
• 54:08
  SPEAKER_00: apparently.
• 54:09
  SPEAKER_00: Cool.
• 54:11
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
• 54:11
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 54:11
  SPEAKER_01: I think mail's definitely,
• 54:14
  SPEAKER_01: if you're running on a less budget,
• 54:17
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 54:17
  SPEAKER_01: I would say that's where you need to be is be in the mail because for 60 cents,
• 54:23
  SPEAKER_01: 48 cents,
• 54:25
  SPEAKER_01: whatever it is,
• 54:25
  SPEAKER_01: you're running your mail piece.
• 54:28
  SPEAKER_01: It's cheaper, faster and quicker than trying to do doors.
• 54:31
  SPEAKER_01: It's cheaper than the cost, you know, to put yourself on TV, especially in a district like this.
• 54:36
  SPEAKER_01: It's very difficult to media by, you know, versus other districts.
• 54:41
  SPEAKER_01: I think that that's you just every day,
• 54:44
  SPEAKER_01: man,
• 54:44
  SPEAKER_01: this and this is the gripe I always have with when I see consultants that do stuff
• 54:48
  SPEAKER_01: or just candidates,
• 54:49
  SPEAKER_01: really,
• 54:49
  SPEAKER_01: because they're responsible for it.
• 54:52
  SPEAKER_01: They'll hire a consultant that does the same crap.
• 54:54
  SPEAKER_01: And it's like,
• 54:54
  SPEAKER_01: well,
• 54:55
  SPEAKER_01: you can't do District A that's the same as District B.
• 54:58
  SPEAKER_01: Like you have to look at the district and you have to tailor the campaign to what
• 55:02
  SPEAKER_01: you're trying to do.
• 55:04
  SPEAKER_01: You can't do it.
• 55:05
  SPEAKER_01: And then you also have to tailor the candidate.
• 55:07
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 55:07
  SPEAKER_01: So and you said that earlier, Courtney Neron looks good on a piece of mail.
• 55:11
  SPEAKER_01: And that's that matters.
• 55:13
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 55:13
  SPEAKER_01: You know, some people, you try to put them on TV and they just look like hell.
• 55:17
  SPEAKER_01: And you're like, I can't put you on TV, right?
• 55:19
  SPEAKER_01: Or they shouldn't speak on TV.
• 55:22
  SPEAKER_01: I've seen so many people speak on TV and you're like,
• 55:25
  SPEAKER_01: who looked at that TV and thought that person should be talking?
• 55:28
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 55:29
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 55:30
  SPEAKER_00: reality,
• 55:31
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 55:32
  SPEAKER_00: that's one of those things where you just think you can slot every candidate into
• 55:35
  SPEAKER_00: the same system and it doesn't always work.
• 55:39
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, you get we had a candidate that was earning for something local and came in and recorded.
• 55:46
  SPEAKER_00: No, it was a surrogate.
• 55:47
  SPEAKER_00: We had come in for a candidate to record radio.
• 55:50
  SPEAKER_00: They were well known.
• 55:52
  SPEAKER_00: They were heavy smokers, not good for radio.
• 55:55
  SPEAKER_00: And I ended up sitting there and recording the exact.
• 56:00
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I ended up sitting there because you're on a budget and just recording the script.
• 56:04
  SPEAKER_00: They're like, oh, your voice is fine.
• 56:05
  SPEAKER_00: It'll be good.
• 56:06
  SPEAKER_00: So I guess that was how I got into it.
• 56:08
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, you're a voiceover guy.
• 56:09
  SPEAKER_01: Look at you.
• 56:10
  SPEAKER_00: I did.
• 56:10
  SPEAKER_00: I did a voiceover because we were in a pinch and we weren't going to buy a voiceover.
• 56:16
  SPEAKER_00: And the person we had,
• 56:17
  SPEAKER_00: like after they left,
• 56:19
  SPEAKER_00: the radio guy was like,
• 56:20
  SPEAKER_00: that was some of the worst audio I'd ever heard.
• 56:22
  SPEAKER_00: Do you want to just record it?
• 56:23
  SPEAKER_00: And then I'll send them to you.
• 56:25
  SPEAKER_00: And I said, sure.
• 56:26
  SPEAKER_00: So anyway.
• 56:27
  SPEAKER_01: crazy stuff it was a voice i did voiceover i was mike the voice of mike's fence
• 56:31
  SPEAKER_01: center for probably 10 years i would do their stuff before the jingle would oh yeah
• 56:36
  SPEAKER_00: oh okay you didn't sing the jingle i was hoping you were oh no expense center um
• 56:42
  SPEAKER_00: which by the way i would like to collect revenue from the ad that we just did for
• 56:45
  SPEAKER_00: him but you know probably not gonna be able to this time but we can ask yeah but it
• 56:50
  SPEAKER_01: would be the single is just ask your neighbor
• 56:53
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, just ask your neighbor, Mike Spencer.
• 56:54
  SPEAKER_00: That's right.
• 56:55
  SPEAKER_00: That could be our opening jingle.
• 56:57
  SPEAKER_01: I give you rights to that one.
• 57:00
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, there you go.
• 57:01
  SPEAKER_00: Probably not that expensive.
• 57:02
  SPEAKER_00: Bend is one of those markets,
• 57:03
  SPEAKER_00: though,
• 57:03
  SPEAKER_00: where it has its own TV station,
• 57:06
  SPEAKER_00: and it's so cheap compared to Portland to buy TV in Bend.
• 57:09
  SPEAKER_00: That's the total difference.
• 57:11
  SPEAKER_00: You can blanket the district in TV.
• 57:13
  SPEAKER_00: I had school board.
• 57:15
  SPEAKER_00: Andy High, I think you might have done his TV.
• 57:17
  SPEAKER_00: Andy High was buying TV in his school board race.
• 57:21
  SPEAKER_00: It was so cheap.
• 57:21
  SPEAKER_00: Now,
• 57:22
  SPEAKER_00: we spent a little bit more on that race for school board than you normally would probably,
• 57:25
  SPEAKER_00: but still,
• 57:26
  SPEAKER_00: it's cheap.
• 57:27
  SPEAKER_00: It was a, it was close to as cheap as mail.
• 57:30
  SPEAKER_00: Relatively cheap.
• 57:31
  SPEAKER_01: And so is Eugene actually in Medford.
• 57:33
  SPEAKER_01: Like those are two markets, you know, where you're, you can buy TV and even radio to that extent, right.
• 57:40
  SPEAKER_01: Where you can buy those markets where you're not,
• 57:43
  SPEAKER_01: you're not over buying for everybody else that you're,
• 57:46
  SPEAKER_01: you can do it kind of within,
• 57:48
  SPEAKER_01: within that quantified defined area.
• 57:52
  SPEAKER_01: It's just easier.
• 57:53
  SPEAKER_01: So, yeah.
• 57:54
  SPEAKER_01: Something to think about out there,
• 57:55
  SPEAKER_01: people,
• 57:55
  SPEAKER_01: just when you're doing these campaigns,
• 57:56
  SPEAKER_01: because they shouldn't,
• 57:58
  SPEAKER_01: going back to that memo,
• 57:59
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 58:00
  SPEAKER_01: Like they said, oh, this race is 600,000 and 850,000.
• 58:04
  SPEAKER_01: Like they shouldn't all, they actually shouldn't all be the same cost.
• 58:07
  SPEAKER_01: There should be a difference.
• 58:09
  SPEAKER_01: Like those Salem seats are, those are the hardest ones because you have to buy Portland media, right?
• 58:14
  SPEAKER_01: to reach a small sliver of Salem market, right?
• 58:17
  SPEAKER_01: Like those are the toughest ones.
• 58:18
  SPEAKER_01: And these East Portland ones are just as bad, you know?
• 58:21
  SPEAKER_01: So there's,
• 58:21
  SPEAKER_01: there's a,
• 58:22
  SPEAKER_01: whereas your statewide Portland media gives you advantage because you know,
• 58:26
  SPEAKER_01: in Baker city,
• 58:27
  SPEAKER_01: they they're in the Portland DMA in Prineville,
• 58:30
  SPEAKER_01: we're in the Portland DMA.
• 58:32
  SPEAKER_01: So on satellite and all these other things, I'm seeing KATU out of Portland.
• 58:36
  SPEAKER_01: So if you're running a statewide media,
• 58:39
  SPEAKER_01: well,
• 58:39
  SPEAKER_01: of course,
• 58:39
  SPEAKER_01: it makes more sense to go buy a thousand,
• 58:42
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 58:42
  SPEAKER_01: TRPs out of Portland because you're going to get,
• 58:46
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 58:47
  SPEAKER_01: geez,
• 58:47
  SPEAKER_01: two thirds of the population probably sees you.
• 58:50
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 58:50
  SPEAKER_01: So it just makes sense that way.
• 58:52
  SPEAKER_01: But.
• 58:53
  SPEAKER_00: Crazy.
• 58:54
  SPEAKER_01: The last seat, House District 40, the one we lost by 168 votes.
• 59:02
  SPEAKER_01: So Anessa Hartman won the race.
• 59:06
  SPEAKER_01: Michael Newgard is the challenger.
• 59:09
  SPEAKER_01: This is Oregon City, Gladstone, kind of in that pocket of 205.
• 59:14
  SPEAKER_01: Apparently they love tolling.
• 59:16
  SPEAKER_01: I'm just kidding.
• 59:18
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's the worst part of I-205.
• 59:21
  SPEAKER_01: So tolling is definitely a hot button issue.
• 59:23
  SPEAKER_01: The voter registration 9.7 moved to 9.3.
• 59:28
  SPEAKER_01: So the theory would be just with voter registration, we're deadlocked.
• 59:35
  SPEAKER_01: And so this should be the barn burner of all barn burners.
• 59:41
  SPEAKER_01: Because it's moving our way.
• 59:42
  SPEAKER_01: We've proven that you can move the needle here.
• 59:46
  SPEAKER_01: I think this one, we lost.
• 59:50
  SPEAKER_01: I think we lost this seat.
• 59:51
  SPEAKER_01: We never had Adam Baker down in the House seat going in.
• 59:56
  SPEAKER_01: I think we lost because of the Kenimer-Meek stuff.
• 59:59
  SPEAKER_01: I think that because the Democrats came in with so much money into Mark Meek's race
• 1:00:04
  SPEAKER_01: at the end and got that turnout,
• 1:00:07
  SPEAKER_01: I think it pulled Vanessa Hartman over the finish line.
• 1:00:11
  SPEAKER_01: against us, which, you know, I'm still kind of pissed about, as you can tell.
• 1:00:15
  SPEAKER_01: But I don't see Anessa, you know, I haven't seen a lot of activity there.
• 1:00:22
  SPEAKER_01: I've driven through that district and I don't see signs.
• 1:00:24
  SPEAKER_01: I don't really see...
• 1:00:26
  SPEAKER_01: Much of anything there.
• 1:00:28
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, one hundred twenty three thousand to sixty nine thousand that Newgards raised.
• 1:00:32
  SPEAKER_01: I think most of that has come from bring balance and leadership.
• 1:00:36
  SPEAKER_00: So to me, Newgards should be able to raise over one hundred grand.
• 1:00:41
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, that that's the part that I'm scratching my head about.
• 1:00:44
  SPEAKER_00: It seems like he should be able to be in a competitive at least dollar for dollar.
• 1:00:50
  SPEAKER_01: i'm a little surprised that's what i'm all of the republican challengers have been
• 1:00:56
  SPEAKER_01: in that 60 70 range that is just not where you need to be yeah you need to be there
• 1:01:02
  SPEAKER_01: a couple months because if you bring balance out of there and leadership out of
• 1:01:06
  SPEAKER_01: there they probably all have like you know two nickels that rub together and the
• 1:01:10
  SPEAKER_01: and that doesn't show community support it just doesn't yeah you know and you
• 1:01:19
  SPEAKER_01: I just think wrong candidate, wrong time that takes this one.
• 1:01:25
  SPEAKER_01: I think it'll still be closer than probably their polling is indicating.
• 1:01:30
  SPEAKER_01: I haven't seen recent polling on this one.
• 1:01:34
  SPEAKER_01: I wouldn't give up on it just because of the way it performed last time.
• 1:01:39
  SPEAKER_01: But again, it's in Oregon City, so you're dealing with Portland Media Market, right?
• 1:01:43
  SPEAKER_01: um if they should be able to go back and voter id as best as possible the people
• 1:01:49
  SPEAKER_01: that were in that squish middle and focus on it it's a little easier to approach
• 1:01:53
  SPEAKER_01: because oregon city has its own zip code and some other things you can do from a
• 1:01:57
  SPEAKER_01: digital standpoint um i wouldn't give up on it but i definitely it's i think it's
• 1:02:03
  SPEAKER_01: not going to be as easy as it was plus um
• 1:02:06
  SPEAKER_01: And that says now incumbent.
• 1:02:09
  SPEAKER_01: And that means incumbency protection for the Democrats is a real thing.
• 1:02:14
  SPEAKER_01: And I would imagine we'll see, you know, a gluttony of TV ads just to make sure if they don't do it.
• 1:02:23
  SPEAKER_01: They must have some internal polling that shows they're really ahead, pretty far ahead in this one.
• 1:02:29
  SPEAKER_01: And then that would go to candidate quality because I think at the end of the day,
• 1:02:35
  SPEAKER_01: if there was a good candidate,
• 1:02:36
  SPEAKER_01: I think they would have to spend money because this district will perform.
• 1:02:40
  SPEAKER_01: And they should be more Trumpy than some of the other districts.
• 1:02:43
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 1:02:44
  SPEAKER_01: And speaking of money,
• 1:02:45
  SPEAKER_01: so I'm going to end it on money and then we can because thank God you split this
• 1:02:49
  SPEAKER_01: into two districts because even I'm getting tired or two.
• 1:02:55
  SPEAKER_01: This is this is why I'm concerned for us.
• 1:02:59
  SPEAKER_01: The Democrat House.
• 1:03:02
  SPEAKER_01: Has raised over two million dollars.
• 1:03:05
  SPEAKER_01: And they have $1.122 million in cash as of October 1st.
• 1:03:11
  SPEAKER_01: Evergreen, which is Republicans, raised $509,000 and they're only sitting on $195,000 cash.
• 1:03:14
  SPEAKER_01: So our ability to be competitive-
• 1:03:23
  SPEAKER_01: in these districts versus their ability to defend, um, is when you have, uh, 10 to one.
• 1:03:31
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 1:03:32
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 1:03:32
  SPEAKER_01: And you've raised four times as much, whereas last cycle we were on par.
• 1:03:38
  SPEAKER_01: So all they're doing is sitting around with their hands out,
• 1:03:40
  SPEAKER_01: hoping that,
• 1:03:41
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 1:03:42
  SPEAKER_01: Congressman Walden will come and,
• 1:03:44
  SPEAKER_01: save these districts and if they're not in a position where you know greg feels and
• 1:03:50
  SPEAKER_01: his team whatever they come up with right like whatever metric they come up with
• 1:03:55
  SPEAKER_01: for funding a challenger races um i i just i just think they they pass because the
• 1:04:02
  SPEAKER_01: work hasn't been done so yeah that's a problem
• 1:04:06
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and the number that matters now, I mean, it's October.
• 1:04:09
  SPEAKER_00: The number that matters now is not total money raised.
• 1:04:11
  SPEAKER_00: It's how much cash do you have in the bank?
• 1:04:13
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 1:04:14
  SPEAKER_00: And so, sure, you've been out-raised 4x as much.
• 1:04:18
  SPEAKER_00: You're down 10 to 1 on cash on hand.
• 1:04:21
  SPEAKER_00: That is a problem.
• 1:04:24
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, you're right.
• 1:04:24
  SPEAKER_00: Walden basically would have to make up the entire deficit in order to put them in a
• 1:04:29
  SPEAKER_00: competitive spot in all those.
• 1:04:30
  SPEAKER_00: And I would say this late in the game, it's unlikely he does it for all the races.
• 1:04:34
  SPEAKER_00: So now the question is, can he put you in a spot to be competitive in enough races to make gains, right?
• 1:04:43
  SPEAKER_00: We seem pretty confident they can hold the four that they've got that Dems are going to target, right?
• 1:04:47
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 1:04:48
  SPEAKER_00: Beyond 53, it seems like the map shrunk on them over the summer.
• 1:04:55
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it seems like it.
• 1:04:56
  SPEAKER_01: We'll see.
• 1:04:57
  SPEAKER_01: I think at the end of the day, sometimes holding...
• 1:05:03
  SPEAKER_01: still is not necessarily a bad, a bad thing.
• 1:05:07
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 1:05:07
  SPEAKER_01: we had some good last cycle,
• 1:05:10
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 1:05:10
  SPEAKER_01: in the house and the Senate,
• 1:05:11
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 1:05:12
  SPEAKER_01: if we can somehow sneak something out of the Senate,
• 1:05:14
  SPEAKER_01: I still think that's kind of a long shot,
• 1:05:17
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 1:05:17
  SPEAKER_01: um,
• 1:05:18
  SPEAKER_01: to get back to 13,
• 1:05:20
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 1:05:20
  SPEAKER_01: or to stay at 13 in the Senate.
• 1:05:23
  SPEAKER_01: Um, it's tough, right?
• 1:05:24
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, we don't have a big map.
• 1:05:26
  SPEAKER_01: We got
• 1:05:27
  SPEAKER_01: Two seats, stay at 13, right?
• 1:05:29
  SPEAKER_01: It's like you pick an A or B, like what's your choice?
• 1:05:32
  SPEAKER_01: And I think B looks like a little bit of a better lift, but it's still a lift, right?
• 1:05:38
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's a lift.
• 1:05:39
  SPEAKER_01: And I think in the house, you have a bigger map, but the lift is still there, right?
• 1:05:47
  SPEAKER_01: And the only way you lift it is with cash, right?
• 1:05:52
  SPEAKER_01: And when you have no cash,
• 1:05:53
  SPEAKER_01: you're,
• 1:05:54
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 1:05:54
  SPEAKER_01: and in a presidential year,
• 1:05:57
  SPEAKER_01: it should be interesting to see how it all plays out.
• 1:06:00
  SPEAKER_01: It's going to be a fun month.
• 1:06:01
  SPEAKER_01: I love October.
• 1:06:03
  SPEAKER_01: We could use an October surprise in our favor.
• 1:06:06
  SPEAKER_01: I think if we don't get an October surprise that goes against Republicans,
• 1:06:11
  SPEAKER_01: I think we've had all of the setbacks we can have.
• 1:06:18
  SPEAKER_01: They'll be able to maintain, you know, our positions in the House and the Senate.
• 1:06:24
  SPEAKER_01: But if we get a setback nationally,
• 1:06:27
  SPEAKER_01: globally,
• 1:06:27
  SPEAKER_01: something that hurts Republicans,
• 1:06:31
  SPEAKER_01: it could be a real detriment for us.
• 1:06:34
  SPEAKER_01: And that's my concern is always that.
• 1:06:36
  SPEAKER_01: I was really concerned about big wildfires, you know, bleeding off in October and some of those things.
• 1:06:42
  SPEAKER_01: I think that subsided a little bit.
• 1:06:44
  SPEAKER_01: But, you know...
• 1:06:47
  SPEAKER_01: Any big international event that is detrimental to Republicans is my biggest fear.
• 1:06:54
  SPEAKER_01: Democrats should worry as far as any sort of Kamala flub,
• 1:06:59
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 1:07:01
  SPEAKER_01: Walls flub of some kind that just turns Democrats off to wanting to turn out the vote.
• 1:07:08
  SPEAKER_01: That would be their October surprise of some kind.
• 1:07:11
  SPEAKER_00: And if I'm the Harris camp,
• 1:07:14
  SPEAKER_00: I tell them do not let Joe Biden in front of a camera or out of the White House for
• 1:07:18
  SPEAKER_00: the entire month of October.
• 1:07:20
  SPEAKER_01: Isn't it funny that they're like October 10th to the 20th?
• 1:07:22
  SPEAKER_01: He's like in...
• 1:07:26
  SPEAKER_01: He's somewhere in, I forget where it was.
• 1:07:28
  SPEAKER_01: He's like, they're sending him on a trip to some country that he's never been.
• 1:07:33
  SPEAKER_01: I would not do that.
• 1:07:36
  SPEAKER_00: That is such a mistake.
• 1:07:37
  SPEAKER_00: I would not be surprised if they cancel that whatsoever because that's going to get media coverage.
• 1:07:41
  SPEAKER_00: I think sending him away is the best thing for them.
• 1:07:46
  SPEAKER_01: And I think the best thing for them is just keeping him on the beach there and wherever the hell he goes.
• 1:07:52
  SPEAKER_01: The basement strategy works.
• 1:07:54
  SPEAKER_01: It worked in 20, man.
• 1:07:56
  SPEAKER_01: I would stick with the basement strategy, but they think sending them internationally to go tour.
• 1:08:02
  SPEAKER_01: And he's probably like,
• 1:08:02
  SPEAKER_01: hey,
• 1:08:03
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 1:08:03
  SPEAKER_01: Jill's probably like,
• 1:08:04
  SPEAKER_01: I want to go on a presidential tour around the different countries.
• 1:08:08
  SPEAKER_01: And who are they to say no?
• 1:08:10
  SPEAKER_01: But that's probably their biggest concern.
• 1:08:12
  SPEAKER_01: I agree with you.
• 1:08:13
  SPEAKER_01: Like Biden could...
• 1:08:14
  SPEAKER_01: be bad.
• 1:08:15
  SPEAKER_01: If he comes out and says,
• 1:08:16
  SPEAKER_01: I never wanted to,
• 1:08:17
  SPEAKER_01: they threw me out of here and I was,
• 1:08:19
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 1:08:19
  SPEAKER_01: blah,
• 1:08:19
  SPEAKER_01: blah,
• 1:08:20
  SPEAKER_00: blah,
• 1:08:20
  SPEAKER_00: blah.
• 1:08:20
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 1:08:20
  SPEAKER_01: If he just goes unhinged because he just gets pissed, like I, you know, I don't know.
• 1:08:26
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know if that really sinks them, but I think it,
• 1:08:29
  SPEAKER_01: It doesn't help.
• 1:08:30
  SPEAKER_00: Part two of him putting on the MAGA hat, I guess, is what that would be.
• 1:08:34
  SPEAKER_01: I wish I could think of some more that are October surprises,
• 1:08:38
  SPEAKER_01: but then they wouldn't be a surprise,
• 1:08:39
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 1:08:40
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll see.
• 1:08:43
  SPEAKER_01: The national stuff,
• 1:08:44
  SPEAKER_01: I think,
• 1:08:44
  SPEAKER_01: is really going to determine a couple,
• 1:08:46
  SPEAKER_01: sadly going to determine maybe a couple of outcomes here,
• 1:08:49
  SPEAKER_01: probably with turnout and some of the other things.
• 1:08:51
  SPEAKER_01: But we'll see what happens.
• 1:08:54
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I'm going to set up a tweet to go out tonight asking people what local races are they following.
• 1:09:02
  SPEAKER_00: I'm finally going to have to do some homework, Brian, because that's the last part of this.
• 1:09:09
  SPEAKER_00: We turn it into four parts this time.
• 1:09:11
  SPEAKER_00: We're always looking to extend the content, make it work for us so that we don't have to work as hard.
• 1:09:17
  SPEAKER_00: Um, but appreciate your rundown, your deep, uh, data analysis here.
• 1:09:20
  SPEAKER_00: You've obviously got a ton of experience in this realm from the,
• 1:09:24
  SPEAKER_00: especially from the caucus perspective,
• 1:09:27
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 1:09:27
  SPEAKER_00: working for the Senate,
• 1:09:28
  SPEAKER_00: helping out leader Breeze Iverson.
• 1:09:30
  SPEAKER_00: Um,
• 1:09:31
  SPEAKER_00: it's a huge,
• 1:09:32
  SPEAKER_00: it's a huge lift on the caucus side,
• 1:09:34
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 1:09:34
  SPEAKER_00: a lot of credit to,
• 1:09:36
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 1:09:37
  SPEAKER_00: most of the people who are working on those races,
• 1:09:39
  SPEAKER_00: um,
• 1:09:39
  SPEAKER_00: and working from that perspective.
• 1:09:41
  SPEAKER_00: It's a lot of work.
• 1:09:41
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 1:09:43
  SPEAKER_00: We appreciate it as Republicans.
• 1:09:47
  SPEAKER_00: And, you know, we'll see what happens.
• 1:09:49
  SPEAKER_00: Election night is going to be exciting, though, I think.
• 1:09:51
  SPEAKER_00: Assuming we're in the same environment where it's like Harris is ahead,
• 1:09:54
  SPEAKER_00: but we're not really sure she's ahead.
• 1:09:56
  SPEAKER_00: If that's how we're going into election night, I think we can be excited.
• 1:10:00
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 1:10:00
  SPEAKER_00: like you said,
• 1:10:01
  SPEAKER_00: if the October surprise goes hard one way or the other,
• 1:10:04
  SPEAKER_00: I think that will,
• 1:10:06
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 1:10:06
  SPEAKER_00: if it goes hard Republican,
• 1:10:07
  SPEAKER_00: I'll be excited.
• 1:10:08
  SPEAKER_00: But certainly Democrats won't be as excited either.
• 1:10:11
  SPEAKER_00: They tried to they obviously moved Biden over to avoid that scenario and then have
• 1:10:17
  SPEAKER_00: it happen would be,
• 1:10:19
  SPEAKER_00: well,
• 1:10:19
  SPEAKER_00: hilarious.
• 1:10:20
  SPEAKER_01: This is the last Trump election theoretically we'll ever have Donald Trump election, I should say.
• 1:10:29
  SPEAKER_00: Gosh, I hope so.
• 1:10:30
  SPEAKER_00: Gosh, I hope so.
• 1:10:31
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not 100 percent confident, Brian.
• 1:10:33
  SPEAKER_00: You think if he loses, he runs again?
• 1:10:35
  SPEAKER_00: I think he said he wouldn't, but somebody pulled up a tweet.
• 1:10:41
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe it was not real, and that's what confused me.
• 1:10:44
  SPEAKER_00: But it was like, if I lose to Joe Biden, I'm not coming back or whatever.
• 1:10:48
  SPEAKER_00: And obviously he did.
• 1:10:50
  SPEAKER_00: So I sure hope so.
• 1:10:53
  SPEAKER_00: We do need some change on that front.
• 1:10:54
  SPEAKER_00: We need to let some of these young guns out.
• 1:10:58
  SPEAKER_00: to just kind of fight.
• 1:10:59
  SPEAKER_00: It'll be great because it'll basically be a fight about the future of the party.
• 1:11:02
  SPEAKER_00: Are we going to be a MAGA party?
• 1:11:03
  SPEAKER_00: Are we going to be something else?
• 1:11:05
  SPEAKER_00: What are we going to be?
• 1:11:06
  SPEAKER_00: And that will determine everything for the Republicans.
• 1:11:11
  SPEAKER_00: And I think Democrats, if they lose Trump,
• 1:11:13
  SPEAKER_00: they will go on a death spiral uh a little bit because they seem to not be able to
• 1:11:19
  SPEAKER_00: handle the losses to trump and they'll probably do some soul searching and are they
• 1:11:24
  SPEAKER_00: going to come out the side the democratic socialists of america are they going to
• 1:11:27
  SPEAKER_01: try to move back to the center it'll be yeah those will be for good podcast
• 1:11:33
  SPEAKER_01: discussions in november december yeah
• 1:11:37
  SPEAKER_00: Well, this has been crosstabs.studio.
• 1:11:42
  SPEAKER_00: Follow at Brian G. Iverson, Brian Gresham Iverson, as we call him here, at Reagan Canope on Twitter.
• 1:11:52
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks so much for listening.
• 1:11:53
  SPEAKER_00: Please send this to a friend.