Latest / The SME Stream / US-NZ Relations US Business Summit set to explore what's next

Transcript

US-NZ Relations US Business Summit set to explore what's next · The SME Stream

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Great to have your company this morning. Right, Donald Trump
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: and his second term. It's reshaped global trade, tariffs policy shifts,
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: new agreements heading New Zealand's economy.
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: We know about these.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Tomorrow the US Business Summit will look at what comes
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: next for our relationship this morning, joining me at the
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: desk as US political analyst Dan Schnuer, who is here
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: from the States visiting and will be attending.
• 0:21
  Speaker 3: Good morning, Thank you so much for having me.
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: Great to have you here. Can we start with Venezuela?
• 0:26
  Speaker 3: Of course?
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: So do you think Trump's going to go in their
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: boots on the ground? Is this going to happen?
• 0:31
  Speaker 4: If I had to guess, Trump's preferred outcome would be
• 0:35
  Speaker 4: to convince Maduro to step aside without any further violence.
• 0:40
  Speaker 4: I believe at this point he's trying to intimidate him
• 0:43
  Speaker 4: into stepping down. That said, if Maduro does decide to
• 0:47
  Speaker 4: hang on at this point, Trump may not have any
• 0:49
  Speaker 4: choice but to engage with US military force.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: And what does that mean? What does that do to
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: the region, Well.
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: It tremendously unsettles the region.
• 0:59
  Speaker 4: The Caribbean and the Lane in Latin America have been
• 1:01
  Speaker 4: largely overlooked by the US for many years, and this
• 1:05
  Speaker 4: is you might guess, is not precisely the type of
• 1:07
  Speaker 4: attention they're looking for. But the other interesting part of
• 1:10
  Speaker 4: this Ryan is at home in the US. Part of
• 1:13
  Speaker 4: Trump's message when he first ran for office was America First,
• 1:18
  Speaker 4: the idea that we'd retreat from the rest of the world,
• 1:21
  Speaker 4: and a lot of his most erstwhile supporters are very
• 1:24
  Speaker 4: distressed to see what they see as this type of
• 1:27
  Speaker 4: military adventurism characterizing this administration.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: In his defense, could you not mount an argument that
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: the wars in Afghanistan, the walls further afield, are not
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: America First. If you were going to put boots on
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: the ground, then this is where you would do it.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Because the drugs, the legal immigration, these are the issues
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: that he's raised.
• 1:46
  Speaker 4: So I don't take sides in academia for or against
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: this president or any other. But what I will say
• 1:55
  Speaker 4: is that for all of the potential problems that Venezuela
• 1:59
  Speaker 4: causes in the region and to the US, drugs.
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: Really isn't one of them.
• 2:03
  Speaker 4: The greatest threat for US, as it is for many countries,
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: is the fentanyl. That is not an issue from Venezuela.
• 2:09
  Speaker 4: They traffic in marijuana, and to some degree cocaine much
• 2:12
  Speaker 4: more to the European Union's countries than to the US,
• 2:17
  Speaker 4: and so Trump.
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: The critics say that Trump had.
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: Promised to end the war in Ukraine on his first
• 2:24
  Speaker 4: day of the presidency, and the Gaza war is taking
• 2:27
  Speaker 4: longer before the violence fully stops. So again, whether you
• 2:31
  Speaker 4: happen to agree with him or not, some of Trump's
• 2:34
  Speaker 4: own most ardent supporters, yeah, they don't want to see this,
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: and it is causing him a political challenge. At the
• 2:39
  Speaker 4: same time, the tariffs and inflation are causing a bit
• 2:42
  Speaker 4: of a rift between him and his backers.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: Also problem for the Midchims, right, no question. What about
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Marjorie Treasure Green, you know she's pulled out. You mentioned
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: the kind of split that's going on with the Mega movement.
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: Is that real? I mean, we see the headlines here.
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: Is that real happening?
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: It is really.
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: Trump has had an extraordinary hold on his most loyal supporters,
• 3:05
  Speaker 4: the likes of which we have not seen in our
• 3:06
  Speaker 4: country's politics or in yours for many, many years. But
• 3:12
  Speaker 4: any number of issues, primarily tariffs and now the inflation
• 3:16
  Speaker 4: that's accompanying them, really has caused a division with Trump
• 3:20
  Speaker 4: and his supporters. What's really driven that disagreement more than
• 3:25
  Speaker 4: any policy issue is the controversy over the release of
• 3:29
  Speaker 4: the Jeffrey Epstein files. And I know you've read about
• 3:31
  Speaker 4: that down here also, But if you take the controversy
• 3:35
  Speaker 4: over the files, add to there the debate over tariffs
• 3:38
  Speaker 4: and inflation, add to that a more aggressive international stance,
• 3:43
  Speaker 4: and a lot of loyal Trump supporters who voted for
• 3:46
  Speaker 4: him on those issues feel like he's no longer there
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: with him. Marjorie Taylor Green is the most visible example
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: of that.
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: What happens to the Republicans once Trump's gone?
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: So that is the trullion dollar question.
• 3:58
  Speaker 4: Roughly two thirds of Republicans identify themselves as being part
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: of the MAGA nation, true blue Trump supporters.
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: Two thirds yes.
• 4:07
  Speaker 4: And so I think what we'll see after the midterm
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: elections next year is you'll see sobal Republicans emerge as
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: potential candidates, all attempting to define MAGA, all attempting to
• 4:18
  Speaker 4: define the make America Great Again concept on their own terms.
• 4:23
  Speaker 4: So I think you'll see a fight for the soul
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: in the future of the Republican Party between Trump's most
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: loyal supporters and what we'll call pre Trumpers, those who
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: represent a more traditional type of conservatism.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: Who do you think, because he's stepped away, shy away
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: from endorsing anyone, you know, there's always been talk about advance.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Of course, who do you think he will support and
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: who do you think, Willem. I mean, it's anyone's case.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: I suppose at this point, isn't it?
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: Yes?
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: And I learned the hard lesson about guessing on our
• 4:54
  Speaker 4: politics back in November twenty sixteen.
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: When Trump was first elected.
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: One is clearly the favorite at this point, but Trump
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: himself also thinks very highly of Marco Rubio, the Secretary
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: of State and former senator from Florida, who really has
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: been the driving force between the administer the Trump administration's
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: actions in Venezuela. There's a very large of Venezuela and
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: expatriate population in Rubio's home state of Florida, and that's
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: driven a lot of this. Senator Ted Cruz from the
• 5:23
  Speaker 4: state of Texas, who ran against Trump in twenty sixteen,
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: has begun talking about potentially running again. He has challenged
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: Vans very forcefully on a number of issues.
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: Nicki Hayley, the.
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: Former governor of South Carolina and former UN ambassador who
• 5:38
  Speaker 4: ran against Trump in twenty twenty four, is said to
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: be considering running again. There will be no shortage of
• 5:44
  Speaker 4: Republican candidates, the one thing we know for sure, though
• 5:46
  Speaker 4: there will be many, many more Democratic candidates running. I
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: would anticipate at least two dozen prominent Democrats seeking their
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: party's nomination.
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: Do you think they'll go hot life like a Mendami.
• 5:58
  Speaker 4: They will try. There are our twenty twenty five Democratic candidates.
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: You'll probably have about a dozen or so that believe
• 6:05
  Speaker 4: Mindami is their north star.
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: But you see another wing of the party.
• 6:10
  Speaker 4: We'll call it, for lack of a better term, right now,
• 6:14
  Speaker 4: the Clinton Obama wing. You're seeing any number of Democratic
• 6:17
  Speaker 4: centrists who believe that the reason that they've lost to
• 6:20
  Speaker 4: Trump is boveering too far leftward. So you'll see quite
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: a spirited fight in both parties.
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: Twenty twenty eight.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Interesting peace in the Wall Street Journal this morning about
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: the tariffs that have had the effect that they've had
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: on the global economy, which so far we haven't seen
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: what was predicted to happen happen. But we've also seen
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Trump pull back and do deals and stuff like that.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Market's kind of shrugging it off. But it was just
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: talking about AI and how what Trump has taken with tariffs,
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: AI has given back with investment billions four hundred billion
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: dollars or something ridiculous from four of the big companies.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: What's your what's your take on the bubble talk? And
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: just how far we've come with that, Sasha, short spice
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: of time.
• 7:01
  Speaker 4: The smartest economists in our country, of whom I am
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: not one, I will assure you tell us that the
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: so called Magnificent seven, Navidia and the other top tech
• 7:11
  Speaker 4: companies are artificially holding up the rest of the economy.
• 7:16
  Speaker 4: And if you were to take our Fortune five hundred
• 7:18
  Speaker 4: and separate out those top seven, the fortune four hundred
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: and ninety three, if you will, really are struggling under
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: the weight of tariffs, under the weight of inflation. And
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: so the concern in Silicon Valley is that this technology
• 7:32
  Speaker 4: bubble like we experienced right around the turn of the century,
• 7:36
  Speaker 4: might be overly inflated and that will not be in
• 7:39
  Speaker 4: a position to carry the rest of the economy.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Indefinitely fancinating stuff. I'm being told to rap because I've
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: taken you too long. But it was very interesting to
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: talk to you.
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: Thanks, thank you so much for having me. I appreciate it. Thanks.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: Professor that is from the United States, Professor Dan Schnurf
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: from the University of California at Berkeley.
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: It is called a past eight