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The Favorites - Best Bets Conference Championship Weekend · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: to the favorites of the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Melman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: We are heading into conference championships Sunday. I'm feeling both
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: euphoria and sadness. I am joined as I am for
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: every episode by my co host, my bff, my companion,
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: my compadre, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon, Hello Chad. Yeah,
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: this is truly the best time of year in the
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: worst time of year. It's so upsetting. Yeah, I'm I'm uh,
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: I'm crushed about so much of it. I was sitting
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: at dinner with my wife and Sun last night. I
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: was like, the schedule is so intense during football season
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: for all of us for various reasons, right and for me. Thursdays,
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: I'm up early. I'm doing research for this podcast, recording
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: a hit for FanDuel TV early in the morning. Then
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: I do more research than we record this, then we
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: would do Action Island an hour after this for fan Duel.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: Then later that day I'm doing a podcast with Cowherd.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: I said to my wife, it just feels like tomorrow's
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: the last day of school, you know, because things slow
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: down so much, and I'm just devastated the party is are.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: I feel like next week. It really feels that way,
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Like we always joke about the week before the week
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: of the super Bowl. It's um, that's really really when
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: it hits me. But I would say the amount of
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: free time is shocking. You could literally go, like I
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: think you just touched on. You go into like a
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: five six month comb of just you know, you're just
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: working either working, you're doing whatever, and you're personal life,
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: but there is no free time. There's always something going on.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: And I had that on Tuesday af of our show.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Usually I gotta go back, get back to work, run
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: more lines, make more calls, and I just got done,
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: like I have nothing to do. There's really nothing to do. So,
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: as you know, Chad, this this week a lot of noise,
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: a lot of conversation just because it's four teams left.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: So we joked about like I know what you're talking
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: about the teams last week, where this week, obviously we're
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: about to just do a little bit of a deep
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: dive into each team and talk about what we're feeling.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: So it's it's fun if you're a fan of the
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: last four teams. I think we can all agree this
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: is the best four teams. I feel like we can
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: all agree on that. Um, that's rare and football. I mean,
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: last year we had to four seeds in the Super Bowl.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: This year feels more like it is what it should be.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: It's a one a one seed of three seed and
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: that could have been a two seed and uh or
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: a one seed and it's a one seed and a
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: two seed that both both could have been the one
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: seed the NFC. So um, yeah, definitely one of those
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: rare weeks where it's just been fun because everyone split
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: like there is no like, oh I had this huge
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: advantage here. It's it's not. No one's really puffing their
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: chest out this week. But it's gonna be fun breaking
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: down these games. Well. It's also it's really strange just
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: because of the line moves for the Chiefs and Bengals,
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: which which we're going to get into. Um, we owe
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: people of foxhol we owe people assignment says, we owe
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: people in exact decision, we owe people of big balls, uh,
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: and we owe people all these things. I think largely
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: because one of these games it was so unpredictable and
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: for a lot of the reasons. We talked about we're
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: going to get two sharp calls in a second. But
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: when we last spoke about these games on Tuesday, we
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: said we bet the Bengals plus three as soon as
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: it opened. On Sunday night, we bet the under fifty
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: one and a half in Bengals Chiefs as soon as
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: it opened. By the time we were talking on Tuesday,
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: the line was Bengals minus two and a half and
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: the total was at forty six and a half. We
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: thought Wednesday would be the line of demarcation. It's when
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: we see the line start to move based on Patrick Mahomes.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: Is he practicing, is he on the field, what is
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: the response to the treatment, etcetera, etcetera. He was on
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: the field, came out in the press conference, said he
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: felt fine, he's gonna play. The line dropped immediately, so
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: it went down to Chiefs plus one. I think that
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: it's very possible. Hold on, I'm checking right now. In
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: the app Kansas City is now a one point favorite again,
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: so you know this one's nuts. Before we get before
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: we do deep dive, I would say, what sharp calls.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: It's almost like sharp calls is the whole show today
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: because we're going to be doing everything, so we can say,
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: let's get to sharp calls. But I feel like whatever
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: you're hearing is also the conversation we should have. So
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: what are you hearing? Hello, I'm there, I'm talking. It's
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: tough because it's so many guys and groups taking positions,
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Like my biggest position of this weekend, and I was
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: simply a hedge on the Eagles one, like I took
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: a really large position on the forty Niners just because
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: as much as I was bashing them and everything like that,
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: trying to get you to go on the Eagles with me,
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: the fort Downers are really good. Like this pretty thing,
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: I should put a pull out with Pretty win more
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: than five games the rest of his career, because this
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: is truly lightning in the bottle. Like I go back
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: and I watch it. I think we'll break it down
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: as we go long here. But it's just it doesn't
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: make sense. The numbers don't make sense, and there's just
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: some pros that are just simply back in the forty niners.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: And on the flip side, se seventy five percent of
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: the guys I talked to are just terrified or Joe
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Burrow like the really that was the reason and they're like,
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: I'm not even plugging this into a model, like I
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: did zero work this week. I'm just being Joe Brow
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: and can't fault them, Like, cannot fault them from that standpoint.
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  Speaker 1: Crazy stadis like as a seven point favorite or less
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: a t s his last twenty. Like we joke all
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: the time about NEOs guys that break the matrix. He
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: he is, he breaks the matrix. He's out of this world.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: It's the books can't catch up to it. And you know,
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: luckily we wrote him for most of this past year
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: where we didn't try to fight it. We just joined
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: the party because it was just it was crazy every
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: week undervalue things. So not shocking that so many pros
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: are on that one. I did think it was shocking
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: how many pros love the forty niners. So that's one
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: we'll obviously deep dive into. But yeah, like this this week,
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  Speaker 1: next week, I'll be with a lot of pros, a
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  Speaker 1: lot of a lot of guys who are big, big money,
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: big timers. Chad knows. I'm flying out to London on
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: Sunday to be with a bunch of guys for the
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: games that are like high level betters and people from Europe,
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: and they're just they viewed things differently than I do
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: because to me, I could never just blindly bet a
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: game like I'd have to run a model. And they're
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: the that just like I've seen this a thousand times.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: They just know what they're doing. So it's really been
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: interesting the back and forth this week because the spreads
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: are so short. I mean, that's just how it is
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: in the game the world. Everyone's got a little bit
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: of an ego and everyone's got their opinions and view
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: so it's like, you know, for me, I enjoy it.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: I literally just stayed on the sideline. Especially in these
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: group text it's just guys going back and forth super
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: personal stuff. I mean, bets from twenty five years ago
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: that guys lost houses and wives over um. It's just
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: it brings out the worst than people. There's only a
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: couple of games and we're all feeling it where the
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: season is almost over, so everyone's like, really not just
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: piste off of it. We just know the ends near,
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: so we're trying to soak up every little bit we
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: can before we all just disappear for a couple of months.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: So um, this these are my favorite times, like this week,
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: next week, hanging out these guys, talking on these guys.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: It's just especially fun after such a long season. Um.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: You know, we all have our opinions, right, everyone's got
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: their opinions, are staunching their opinions at this point, and
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: what you believe in, what you want to back at
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: this point. So um to me, that's why I love
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: when it comes down this final four teams here, just
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: because we got we got the rare, rare thing here
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: the first time was put out. Maybe that both spreads
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: were below three points in the championship games. So no
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: matter what, we're in for some amazing football. I feel
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: like we all can feel that way. Let's dig in
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: here a little bit. You're making me a little nervous
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: about our Eagles play that we both loved on Sunday
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: at minus two, and I still feel pretty good about it,
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: to be honest, even even with the pretty magic in
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: the bottle. Let's let's let's talk about that game first,
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: because because, to be honest, that may end up being
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: our big balls bet right because and maybe we just
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: declare it right now, Eagles minus two and a half
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: big balls better the week. I'm hearing the same thing
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: you are. We both loved the Eagles when the line open,
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: I think you got it. You got at it up
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: to two. I got it at two. We still like
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: it at two and a half. A lot of guys
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: have a power raider to three. But look, Nick Giffin
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: went on Green Dot Daily earlier this week. He's one
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: of our brilliant analytics minds. He had all these reasons
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: why the Niners are probably a better team than the
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: Eagles dv O A wise, schedule, wise, performance wise. Here's
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: my thing. That's why I still feel confident about the Eagles.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: The Eagles still haven't lost. When Jordan Davis and Jalen
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: Hurts play, the Eagles pass rush is historically dominant. Brock
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: Party has been amazing also been sacked I think sixteen
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: times in seven games. He has a tendency to hold
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: the ball and not make decisions as quickly as he
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: could all the time, even though he's also been brilliant.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: I think sixteen touchdown passes, four interceptions in those seven games.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: History is against him because he's a rookie. He's the
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: is his third road game, and Philly is not Seattle
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: against Gino Smith. It's not Las Vegas where half the
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: stadium is going to be on your side anyways, all right,
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: it's fucking the fighting city of Philadelphia. You don't go
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: into Philly for an NFC championship game as a guy
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: who's played seven games in your career and essentially half
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: to win the game, which is what he has to
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: do to cover this number. I don't care. I don't
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: care what we've seen. I'm telling you how it is. Yeah,
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: I know, obviously I'm all in the Eagles. Chah, there's
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: no there's no discuestionary there. I'm just I'm trying to
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: get people the perspective, um, what the pros are seeing here.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: So you know what I'm getting back and forth is
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: kind of how it means you feel sometimes where these
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: lines are fucking bullshit, Like this line does not make sense?
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Two and a half? What what in the world? How
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: is how is Brock not at three three and a
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: half yet? So I know the pros that are holding
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: at three and holding it two and a half, I
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: should say, like they're they they're darre in these books
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: to go to three. That's how strongly they feel about
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: this Fort and IROs team. Where I just keep throwing
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: that history in their face, like there's a reason no
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: rookie has ever won the championship game in this long
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: history we have with the NFL. There's something about it
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: that that pressure is real, and the tape in the
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: book is out all the guys by this point, right,
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: we know that. So the reason these pros love party
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: is he doesn't know what the hell he's in. Yet
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: they're all in an agreeance that like this kid, I
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: don't they think he doesn't get it that he's like
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: playing in the football league and every guy he's playing
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: against is better. I mean, it's you can't wrap your
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: head around because this could play to Iowa State. So
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: say at Iowa State, he played against whatever it was Iowa,
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: the best guy in Iowa that he ever played against
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: in his life. On defense, it's probably on special teams
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: on the in an NFL team. That's the level he's
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: gone from Iowa State in a year from last year
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: to where he's at now. That's a high of the
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: level is So that's why I like the Shanahan Coach
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: of the Year there. I'm so abstaunching it where it's
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: like we can't wrap our head around it because we
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: have such high expectations for this foreign team. It's mry
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: irrelevant seven and oh in the NFC Championship game. That's
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: why I like chat. I feel like I should be
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: putting in my life savings on this game with the Eagles.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: In what world does this kid go on the road
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: Like you just talked about, I feel like we feel
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: like we're being pumped. If the wise guys are saying
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: they love San Francisco, it's almost like they're fucking with us,
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: But they're not like they they're just like they think
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: like a lot of people think where the Eagles. They
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: haven't played a defense like this foreign as defense and
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: a defense that actually is showing so many holes in
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: the secondary against the past that it's like it was
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: fucking cheese. Their strength is the run, and that's that's
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: what people people think this Eagues team without the run.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: And I'm just one thing I think they're underestimating. Hurts
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: A J. Brown, DeVante Smith, God or they're receiving options
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: for this Eagles team. That's the thing where it's like
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: a lot of back and forth and I can't counter
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: it because of exactly what they're saying. Where the Eagles defense,
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: I don't know, say they have given up three or
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: four games over thirty points, the ft Nanciers have only
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: done it twice all year, and I go back on them,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: that's because of their scheduling, the QBS they faced. And
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: that's what this week is. It's like a lot of
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: people making opinions, drawing lines, and I feel like we're
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: reading this one right where the forty niners, I get
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: the fear, like the fear of these pros going against
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: them because they've outperformed every metric you can set, Like
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: once again, it's a seventh round rookie. This is I
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: know you already has sent stuff to the Hall of Fame.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: It's all gonna be in there, like this is. This
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: is truly a historical thing we're seeing right now. This
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: kid who's mystery I relevant. Um, I don't know if
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: he'll have more than five wins the rest of his career,
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: because you know, no one will be shocked they show
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: up next August and Trey Lansi plays him for that
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: starting rule. I mean, Treyl answer is a reason he
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: was the third pick overall and Purty was the seventh
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: round pick. But it's like he doesn't know it. Chad.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: Like watching that Cowboys game, he would make two reads
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: and if it wasn't there, he literally would just throw
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: it away. Like that's veteran level understanding of I'm not
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: the reason we're gonna win this game. I'm the reason
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: we'll lose this game. So I'm just not gonna be
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: that reason we lose. And that was very smart and veteran.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: I mean, obviously Shannon's in his ear telling him do
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: this stuff. So with this Eagles game, I can't see
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: him getting away with that. I just don't see the
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: Eagles offense sputtering. Um. We've all had our doubts about Doc.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: There's no reason for us to have our doubts about
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: hurts like that. That his first career playoff games against
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: Tom Braiding the Bucks. We talked to Austin. He laid
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: on agging in that game. He had reads he missed.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: This year we talked about he's corrected that when he
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: seeds that one on one with a J. Brown, he
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: attacks the downfield. So to me, I think the pros
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: are still underestimating this Eagles team. And I might be
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: in my words here, Chad, because the books believe it
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: with them. Like the books, they're all in unity here
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: holding this two and a half like I I have not.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: I've seen one book. It was bet MGM moved to
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: the three um and it hung it there for I
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: don't say twelve hours and it went down to a
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: half and it has been back. So um, we're going
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: against the books on this one, like we we're definitely
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: with the public side on this one. But I think
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: the money will get a little closer comes Sunday because
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: I know a lot of pros that are just waiting.
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: They're waiting for the three. They're hoping the public hits
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: us up to a three and they'll take the value
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: on the forty niners. So to me, we already went
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: through the numbers. The Rookies Championship game. One of three
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: a TS owned four historically, they had four touchdowns passing
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: nine interceptions. Um. The one cover was a fourteen point dog.
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: So we we we love the idea of purty against
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: this Eagles defense and philling. When I was listening to
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast earlier today with ray Bond and Stucky,
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: Raybon loved the under in this game, and ray Bond
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: has been smoking hot, And I hate when you and
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: Raybond don't agree with each other. But the problem is
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: I didn't agree with it either. We liked I think
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: we bet the over at forty five and a half
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday. It's um now at forty six and a
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: half is the key number here? Why do I still
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: like the over here? What? Like even when when Raybond
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: ran through all the numbers, Yeah, and there was a
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: lot of research to back it up. Sometimes you just
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: get a feeling like games aren't going to play the type.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: And it's so an anthema to the way that I
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: like to think about betting games and the way that
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: I like to share information, because I don't believe your
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: emotions and feelings should be a part of this process.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: But I just keep thinking this isn't over. I've seen
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: too much. I've seen too much evidence of the Niners
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: defense in the back half of their defense and not
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: being able to stop passing games. Well, Lucky for me,
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: I work with this guy. Chris. I spent a lot
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: of time with this guy, Chris, and I can pull
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: up his numbers here, so he he literally had this
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: game rate at forty five point five, so that could
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: be your answer right there. He thinks it moved, so
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: he likes the value on the under. Um. I have
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: this game rate at forty seven. You can see why
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: I like the over. So it's it's one of those
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: where it's just tight, like he literally likes the under
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: to a point. Um. Looking at this matchup, I'm in
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: a holding plan agreement with you, Chad. When I first
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: saw this open, I was like, oh, that's a trap line.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: Not that every line the trap line, but like forty
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: two and a half felt right for this two matchups
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: because I am in total agreeance these are This is
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: the reason I like both these teams for the Super
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: Bowl coming up, because I just think both these defenses,
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: both these d lines are just such a nuts, just
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: such a eye level um compared to the other side,
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: the FC. I just don't think you can compare it.
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: I think both that everyone knows that. I mean, you look,
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: most books already hung Super Bowl lines. The four Nighters
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: and Eagles are both favorites. Now, so um, the public
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: might not understand it where they're just so enamorated with
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: the quarterbacks, but I'm telling you, it's all about the
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: old line, D line and then you fill out with
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: the quarterback and then the skill position. So I was
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: shocked that they hung it at that chat next week
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: that the favorites was gonna be a rookie and Purty
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: and you know, his third start in the playoffs hurts.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: But the books are sharp. So that's my fear here
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: with this this line going with the Eagles. But on
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: the total, I haven't waiver at all. I still like
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: the over, and like you just talked about forty seven,
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: such a key number, I still think we're getting good
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: value on it. So we'll know early on, Like if
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: this Eagles team sputtering really early the game script coming
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: out doesn't work, that's a huge red flag to this over,
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: just because they're one of the best scripted t tames
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: in football this year. I mean, if you go through it,
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: they've been one of the best first half teams all
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: year and we've just seen it time and time again.
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: They have a nice script to start these games, and
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: there's a big difference when you go back to the
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: Eagle schedule, there's very telling signs of if they sputter,
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: and the other team usually sputters as well. Honestly, like
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: Eagle's defense is usually pretty get in the first half,
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: it's the second half their defense kind of lets down.
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: You could probably wait and see what we can get live,
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: but to me, if you can still get the forty
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: sixty five and a half, you gotta grab you over.
• 20:30
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• 22:42
  Speaker 1: Mahomes heroically walked to a press conference, heroically walked away
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: and looked like he was playing skipped to Mulu on
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: the practice field. He's Superman. He's got the reginitive skills, talent,
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: DNA of that you know snake that loses its tail
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: and then regrows its tail immediately. The guys fucked, and
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: he's playing in an injury that takes six months to
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: heal and he's doing it in six days. The line
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: has been whacky. Do as it stands now forty seven
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: and a half. I think we still like the under
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: Chiefs minus one? What the fund do we do here?
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: I know exactly what I want to do. I'm interest
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: hear what you want to do, But how am I
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: not going to take the Chiefs? I've just been waiting
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: to see how he looked, how he's moving maybe I'm
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: a sucker because like him, him jogging down those steps,
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: to me was actually a big deal because that was
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: truly not thinking about his ankle at the press conference.
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: I know it sounds stupid, but like going down the steps,
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: he's not thinking about his next step. He's simply jogging
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: down the steps like its routine and out the door
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: and then you do it. You saw him do it.
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: Stretches and he was full participant. I don't know what
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: to think, Chad, because like the early line movement to
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: me was smart money. Get an info that this is
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: worse than they're letting on, right, Like that was a
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: huge swing through a bunch of key numbers. They moved
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: it from plus three all the way to a two
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: and a half on the Chief side. So if he
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: looks the way he looks, the numbers should be back
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: to three. But the books are like in this weird
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: spot now where it's like they really got hit hard
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: on that two and a half, Like they got a
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: lot of good, big money on that two and a half.
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: Still yeah, Chiefs two and a half plus two and
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: a half. Still though all the money and all the
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: tickets are mainly still in the Bengals. That's how much
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: early money came in on them. So the lineman doesn't
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: really make sense to me. It should be back to three.
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: That's that's where it should be at. If my homes
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: is he able to move in the pocket, which everything
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: I've seen of, if he can stay on his tippy toes,
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: he's good like that's that's that's where he that's where
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: he excels. He's he's on the he's on his toes
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: where he can move in the pockets so smoothly and practice.
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: That's what he was literally doing. So um, all we
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: can go off of his beat writers and a little
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: bit of insight sources we have, and everything I hear
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: was it was bad when it happened, right, And it's
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: one of those things too where he was scared to
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: even put weight on it because it just didn't feel
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: right to him. And as the game went along and
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: the drilline took over, he was like, Okay, I'm more
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: comfortable now. But then they figured after the game it
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: would be in a real bad spot, it'd be all
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: swollen up. But we know the technology we have nowadays.
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: They put that whatever he's something one of those bead
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: things that like is good for your body, and then
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: put different types of graps yeah and zero hot cold
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: and all this different crap, and it's like the man's
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: jogging two three days later, it's it's mind blood. So
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: I was prepared to take since like a one legged
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: Mahomes against arguably the best QB and football right now
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: and Burrow. I would have backed Burrow, but my Homes
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: is able to play fully. I love him in this
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: spot where he's going through against Burrow and what are
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: they calling it yet, burrowhead. They're calling arrowhead burrowhead. Even
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: the players on Sincius and like I listened to um
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: shout out to the Kelsey Boys podcast, Travis Kelsey was
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: talking about they're talking about that in the locker room.
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: He's like, they know. So I love this game. I
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: hate that I'm going so chalk, going both one seeds,
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: both home teams. But I love the Chiefs. I love
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: the Eagles. Oh man, it's so tough because Bros so
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: damn good. I hate going against him, but it's it's
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: this number should be three and it's not. So I'm
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: gonna take the value right now and on my Homes
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: we bettered at plus three for the Bengals on Sunday night.
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: I bought a little bit back on the Chiefs at
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: plus two and a half. I wish I did. I
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: got the one and a half because I needed to
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: see it. I told you I needed to see it
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: because I was hearing so much noise of like they're overrating.
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: He's fine. He was supposedly up the next day, lightly
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: jogging in his neighborhood. It's like I needed to see it.
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: There's too much bullshit flying around this time of year.
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: But yeah, good for you. Goodbye you hitting that two
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: and a half because that's such a key number. Yeah,
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: I'm excited about it. So I feel really good about
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: my position there. I've still bet I bet more on
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: the Bengals at plus three that I did on the
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: Chiefs of plus two and a half, so I still
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: come out a loser. If if you know the Chiefs
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: win by more than three, I think you're right. Like
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: if it's if you're basically getting Chiefs to win at home,
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: that's that's what you gotta play. Yeah, there, you have
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: no options, so frustrating, such a challenging game, its brutal.
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: What are we thinking about the under right now? Forty
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: seven and a half still feel good because it feels
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: like the way you win this game is one side,
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: lane and egg. Like I we're all hoping for the
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: ultimate shootout, right, But me and Chad don't bet that way.
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: We we we play the percentages, and we play the
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: numbers we've been down and your read outdoors playoff game
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: at home, it's just above a six percent in his career,
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: even when this is including his time at the Eagles.
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: So this is just a number of position. We will
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: take the rest of our lives as long as and
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: you reads the head coach, he's an offensive genius. The
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: public knows that they will always bet the over. Me
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: and Chad will always take the other side. Um, not blindly.
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: It's all about the matchups, right. I know for a
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: fact we're both on the over last year Bill's Chiefs
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: game that was at Arrowhead. But in this matchup, I
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: just I gotta take the under, so um hoping it
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: gets up the forty eight and a half. I did
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: throw a little more on the forty seven and a
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: half when I got there. I just think the public
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: as a week will go along. I just see them
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: betting the over. It's just the my homes effect like
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: you said, would open that you you gotta have fifty
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: three or something a little in between there, right, four
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: day and a half would make more sense. Forty nine
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: and a half would make sense. I don't. I don't
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: see it getting back up to fifty one, but I
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: could see it keep keep rising a little bit as
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: a public will come in here on this over um.
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I thought the only game I flipball was
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: this one. I thought I would flip back to the
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: Chiefs if my homes um looked the way he did.
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: I just did not see him looking as good as
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: he did, Like this was truly mine. But from what
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: I saw Sunday, I thought this kid would be in
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: a walking boot all week. Game time decision completely wrong,
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: like whatever. I maybe I underestimated the medical treatment, but
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: it was just one of those where it's just it's
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: what we saw in the field, Like the kid just
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: looked completely different obviously afterwards. Um. So that that's that's
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: the best part of this whole week right now is
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: we're gonna it looks like we're gonna get a percent
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: of homes, which is great. Right now, of the bets
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: meeting the public are on the over of the money
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: is on the under. Yeah, right, it makes sense. That's
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: just a that's a that's a pro under there, because
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: everyone's gonna be on the over all. Right, Well, listen,
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: we gotta do a foxhole. Also, I want to point
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: out one other thing that's just amazing. We gotta do
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: a foxhole. We gotta do with Simon says, we gotta
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: do an exact decision. Let's do it. I mean, people
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: know what we're doing. Yeah, so why don't why don't
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: we do? Simon says, first, and then I'll do exact
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: decision and then we can settle on our foxhold. I
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: gotta just be a man. I just gotta pick side.
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: So we did big balls for the Eagles, I'll do
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: Simon says, grab that, my homes. You can get it
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: at pick right now, or get it at the minus one.
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: We do what science exact decision. Chad is going, Oh
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: my god, I am so torn between the under forty
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: seven and a half, which makes me nervous just because
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: it's not the number I like, or the over forty
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: six and a half, which makes me nervous because it
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: is a fucking gut bet that's it. Betty Betting's hard, brother,
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: betting is hard. I'm going with the under forty seven
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: and a half for the Bengals and the Chiefs. The
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Are you happy?
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: Exept decision? And then I think our foxhole should be
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: the over. Yeah, and the Eagles. You know me, regardless
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: of what's going on, I'm a foxhole guy. I commit
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: to a team, I commit to a city. I'm a
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: foxhole guy. The mix of a foxhole big ball because
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: this this this takes balls. Even Chad scared of this one.
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: I'm totally scared of this One's where once again, the
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: first quarter will know where're gonna be out with this
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: bet pretty quick. I totally believe it totally makes me nervous.
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: So to recap, the foxhole is over Eagle San Francisco,
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: Simon says his Chiefs minus one slash pick exact decision
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: is under forty seven and a half since the k C,
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: I do think you should wait on it, by the way,
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: because I do think that's gonna go up a little bit.
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: I'm hoping. And then the big balls as Eagles minus
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: two and a half. Motherfucker. It's not like gust In
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: the year in the not in the year, you know
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: what I mean. I have two favorites head into the
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl weekend. But last year at this point we
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: had the Bengals three and a half and we had
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: the three and a half and one covered and one
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: one outright. So this year, hope we're going for two
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: for two, both winners outright. Here's the schedule for the
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: next couple of weeks, a lot of Super Bowl betting content.
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: On Tuesday. Next Tuesday one, we'll do our initial Super
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: Bowl betting preview. You and I from England, live from England.
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: That's why for for those who are listening and those
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: who listen on AMP, we were doing all this Manchester,
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: England band stuff after the show was over. That is
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: because Simon will be in uh, Northern England for part
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: of the week that he's uh that he's across the pond.
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: On the second, February two, we've got Matthew Friedman, former
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: Action Network star, now running Fantasy Pros. We love when
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: Freedman comes on the podcast. Evan Abrahams, director of research,
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: who we reference constantly. You can see him on Green
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: Dot daily regularly. You can hear him on the Action
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: Network Pod Tuesday February seven, one of our best shows
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: of the year with two of the biggest stars in
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: the Action Network universe. Super Bowl Props with Chris Raybone
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: and Sean Kerner. Don't miss it Bookmarket Calendar. It put
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: it on the board. February nine, Super Bowl Best Bets
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: with Brandon Anderson, who's been doing an amazing job in
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: are Sunday Night Monday recap for Action Network. He's been
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: amazing all season, really smart. He's the one who tipped
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: everybody off to Eagles outline of minus twenty and a
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: half against the Giants paid off at about three and
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: a half to one. So that is the schedule for
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  Speaker 1: the next couple of weeks. You're off to England. We're
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• 33:34
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