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We Are Only 99 DAYS Away From the Midterm Elections! · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:02
  We are 99 days out from the midterm elections.
• 0:05
  We're than 100 days,
• 0:07
  who knew?
• 0:07
  It doesn't feel like
• 0:08
  that,
• 0:09
  but we are right around the corner.
• 0:10
  We'll get into what to look forward to and kind of
• 0:13
  set a marker here as we go into the,
• 0:14
  the closing stretch.
• 0:16
  We're gonna get into uh a little bit more when
• 0:17
  we're talking about the tools you need to profit on.
• 0:20
  The election as we go
• 0:22
  forward,
• 0:23
  we'll get you into that and the kind of the ground floor level here,
• 0:26
  we'll talk to you about all that new stuff coming and
• 0:28
  we have more of your questions and comments.
• 0:30
  You can drop them whenever you can at predictableshow.com.
• 0:33
  We check them all the time,
• 0:34
  try to answer your questions as much as possible.
• 0:37
  So,
• 0:37
  put them there,
• 0:38
  we'll answer some here in just a few minutes on Predictable
• 0:40
  with Stu.
• 0:56
  Welcome to the program.
• 0:58
  Yes,
• 0:59
  it's true,
• 1:00
  it's time officially
• 1:02
  to panic.
• 1:04
  We are less than 100 days away
• 1:06
  from the election.
• 1:07
  The midterms are right around the corner.
• 1:09
  We are in like serious mode here now.
• 1:11
  It's time,
• 1:12
  it's time to make sure
• 1:14
  that they,
• 1:14
  every,
• 1:15
  all the hatches are battened down,
• 1:17
  all the doors are locked,
• 1:19
  all the children are protected because we are
• 1:21
  just
• 1:22
  a few months away from the election in 2026.
• 1:26
  Democrats are betting on affordability,
• 1:28
  apparently.
• 1:29
  And the GOP is betting on Trump
• 1:31
  in midterm campaigns final 100 days.
• 1:33
  Now,
• 1:33
  I don't know if that's true.
• 1:34
  This is the Washington Post saying this.
• 1:36
  Uh,
• 1:36
  of course,
• 1:37
  the Democrats are gonna say the words affordability
• 1:39
  over and over and over and over again.
• 1:40
  What does that mean exactly?
• 1:41
  I'm not exactly won over by their approaches toward it.
• 1:44
  Uh,
• 1:45
  and,
• 1:45
  you know,
• 1:45
  I don't know,
• 1:46
  are Republicans really going to,
• 1:47
  uh,
• 1:47
  bet on Trump?
• 1:48
  Maybe they will.
• 1:49
  It's obviously a central,
• 1:50
  uh,
• 1:50
  figure in the party.
• 1:51
  But I will say,
• 1:53
  when I watch the Democrats on TV,
• 1:55
  what they're talking about all the time is not affordability,
• 1:57
  but it's Trump.
• 1:58
  It seems like Democrats are betting on Trump.
• 2:00
  Republicans,
• 2:01
  I don't know what they're doing,
• 2:01
  frankly.
• 2:02
  They just come out there and
• 2:03
  I don't know.
• 2:04
  I think they show up to work
• 2:05
  occasionally.
• 2:06
  I,
• 2:06
  I don't even know what happens a lot of times.
• 2:08
  Uh,
• 2:08
  but we have,
• 2:09
  uh,
• 2:09
  they really should be affording,
• 2:10
  they should be talking more about affordability and
• 2:12
  talking about the economy.
• 2:13
  That's just not really seeming to be central to their messaging at all.
• 2:17
  100 days until the midterms,
• 2:19
  it's actually 99 today.
• 2:21
  Uh,
• 2:21
  Dems lead in polling,
• 2:23
  GOP in redistricting,
• 2:24
  and that's kind of key as to what is happening.
• 2:27
  In the House.
• 2:27
  When you think about the House,
• 2:28
  you have to think about two different things.
• 2:30
  One,
• 2:30
  the history,
• 2:31
  uh,
• 2:32
  where,
• 2:32
  where everything's going,
• 2:33
  where everything's been,
• 2:34
  and then two is the redistricting,
• 2:35
  which should favor at least by a few seats,
• 2:38
  the Republicans.
• 2:39
  So normally on a,
• 2:40
  on a typical year,
• 2:42
  you'd see
• 2:43
  relatively medium to large losses in a scenario like
• 2:46
  this for the party that is in power.
• 2:48
  What we may see here is uh those losses either slightly uh uh smaller,
• 2:53
  or maybe,
• 2:54
  uh,
• 2:54
  who knows,
• 2:55
  maybe there'll be some turn in the election,
• 2:56
  we will see.
• 2:57
  The Senate,
• 2:58
  of course,
• 2:58
  a little bit different,
• 2:59
  we've gone through the construct of that.
• 3:00
  I think we'll do a show relatively soon.
• 3:02
  Um,
• 3:03
  talking about
• 3:04
  where the Senate stands.
• 3:06
  Maybe we'll put a little board together to kind of to understand
• 3:09
  where these seats are and,
• 3:10
  uh,
• 3:10
  where we stand,
• 3:11
  but with just a few primaries,
• 3:12
  uh,
• 3:12
  to go,
• 3:13
  the competitive Senate map,
• 3:15
  uh,
• 3:15
  keeps shifting.
• 3:15
  We do have a primary tomorrow in South Dakota,
• 3:18
  a runoff,
• 3:19
  which is,
• 3:20
  I've been told by people in South Dakota,
• 3:22
  I'm allowed to say Roden versus Doden.
• 3:24
  So that's what I'm doing.
• 3:25
  Uh,
• 3:25
  whether that's the correct way to pronounce their names,
• 3:28
  I don't know.
• 3:28
  I've,
• 3:29
  I've heard it multiple different ways.
• 3:30
  I'm going Rodden versus Doden cause it's fun,
• 3:32
  OK?
• 3:33
  That's how we,
• 3:33
  that's how we make decisions on this program.
• 3:35
  We don't make decisions based on accuracy or fact.
• 3:38
  We make
• 3:39
  decisions based on how fun
• 3:41
  terms and words and names are to say.
• 3:44
  Rodden versus Doden.
• 3:45
  It's a sequel to Kramer versus Kramer.
• 3:47
  It's coming up tomorrow.
• 3:49
  Uh,
• 3:49
  we will talk about it,
• 3:50
  we will do some,
• 3:51
  probably some live streaming as these election results come out.
• 3:53
  We do have Rodden as kind of a heavy favorite here.
• 3:56
  We will see if that holds up
• 3:57
  tomorrow.
• 3:58
  Now,
• 3:59
  This is the,
• 3:59
  uh,
• 4:00
  what is the 100 days away,
• 4:01
  what Calci midterm hub tells us
• 4:03
  about the fight for Congress.
• 4:04
  Let me show you a couple of these things.
• 4:05
  These are the new tools we've been talking about later.
• 4:07
  Kind of a nice easy way
• 4:09
  because,
• 4:09
  uh,
• 4:10
  I think Calci said themselves about 75% of the people
• 4:13
  who go to their election hub and to their website or go there to access information,
• 4:18
  not to trade.
• 4:19
  Um,
• 4:19
  you know,
• 4:20
  we,
• 4:20
  these things,
• 4:21
  uh,
• 4:21
  we're told that they have no utility in our society.
• 4:24
  Uh,
• 4:24
  there was a big,
• 4:25
  um,
• 4:25
  election.
• 4:26
  Um,
• 4:27
  yeah,
• 4:27
  you know,
• 4:28
  based sort of,
• 4:29
  uh,
• 4:29
  documentary that aired on Netflix.
• 4:31
  We'll get into that later this week,
• 4:32
  probably.
• 4:33
  Um,
• 4:34
  you know,
• 4:34
  and some of the people are on there saying,
• 4:35
  oh gosh,
• 4:35
  what utility does this bring to people,
• 4:37
  you know,
• 4:37
  it's all,
• 4:38
  uh,
• 4:38
  sports and then it's all,
• 4:40
  you know,
• 4:40
  blah,
• 4:40
  blah,
• 4:40
  blah,
• 4:41
  all these things they say,
• 4:42
  it's the same 15 complaints over and over and over again.
• 4:44
  Um,
• 4:45
  but again,
• 4:45
  most people come just to get,
• 4:47
  get the information.
• 4:47
  Who's gonna win?
• 4:48
  What,
• 4:48
  what's the state of the race?
• 4:50
  Uh,
• 4:50
  this is what the midterm hub,
• 4:51
  uh,
• 4:52
  looks like,
• 4:52
  if we could bring that up.
• 4:54
  Republicans have a 55% chance
• 4:56
  to control the Senate.
• 4:57
  If you kind of scroll down,
• 4:58
  you can see all the states.
• 4:59
  I think if you hover over each state,
• 5:00
  they'll kind of give you,
• 5:01
  they give you a little,
• 5:02
  uh,
• 5:03
  Uh,
• 5:03
  outline,
• 5:03
  hover over one of the states.
• 5:04
  Yeah,
• 5:05
  you get kind of an outline like there,
• 5:06
  there's Texas,
• 5:07
  uh,
• 5:07
  Ken Paxton at 58%,
• 5:10
  James Tallarico,
• 5:11
  and his,
• 5:12
  uh,
• 5:12
  new embrace of,
• 5:14
  uh,
• 5:14
  uh,
• 5:14
  of reparations,
• 5:17
  uh,
• 5:17
  that's gonna win in Texas,
• 5:19
  somehow still at 42%.
• 5:21
  I,
• 5:22
  I still maintain that when people in Texas start looking at this guy,
• 5:26
  I just don't see how he's going to win a statewide election,
• 5:28
  even in a bad Republican environment.
• 5:30
  I just don't see it,
• 5:31
  but
• 5:32
  I who knows,
• 5:32
  I could be wrong on that one.
• 5:34
  we,
• 5:34
  you know,
• 5:34
  you kind of see that,
• 5:35
  that's kind of the state of the race.
• 5:36
  There's a House,
• 5:37
  uh,
• 5:37
  page,
• 5:37
  there's a
• 5:38
  Senate page.
• 5:39
  They also have a,
• 5:39
  uh,
• 5:39
  uh,
• 5:40
  a midterm,
• 5:40
  um,
• 5:41
  uh,
• 5:41
  page which also will,
• 5:42
  uh,
• 5:43
  link you to,
• 5:44
  uh,
• 5:45
  the primaries.
• 5:45
  So you can kinda go see all of that.
• 5:47
  And what I like about that map idea,
• 5:48
  Poly Market,
• 5:49
  by the way,
• 5:49
  has one as well.
• 5:50
  Um,
• 5:51
  they have a,
• 5:51
  a situation you can check out
• 5:53
  on Poly Market.
• 5:54
  We can look at that one when we have a moment to bring that up.
• 5:57
  Uh,
• 5:57
  there's a little bit different,
• 5:58
  obviously,
• 5:58
  you kind of see the setup here.
• 6:00
  Uh,
• 6:00
  98 days,
• 6:01
  they're set.
• 6:01
  See,
• 6:02
  are we lying to you?
• 6:02
  Is it 99 or 98?
• 6:03
  Polling Mar says 98 days,
• 6:05
  11 hours,
• 6:06
  31 minutes,
• 6:07
  and 2 seconds
• 6:09
  as we record this,
• 6:09
  56% chance the Republicans keep the Senate,
• 6:12
  86% chance the Democrats take the House.
• 6:14
  That's kind of where this is.
• 6:16
  Let me show you back to Calci for just a second.
• 6:17
  I have a nice little map there too.
• 6:19
  The,
• 6:19
  uh,
• 6:19
  the information's really,
• 6:21
  really important to people,
• 6:22
  and that is kind of the central function as to why
• 6:25
  these markets bring utility
• 6:27
  to the average person.
• 6:29
  There are other more specific things.
• 6:30
  We've talked about this as they bring utility to businesses,
• 6:33
  for example.
• 6:34
  Businesses who want to hedge the risk of maybe an election,
• 6:36
  or maybe the weather,
• 6:37
  or maybe 100 other things that are important to them.
• 6:40
  People hedging their life.
• 6:41
  I've hedged my life all the time.
• 6:43
  Uh,
• 6:44
  I mean,
• 6:44
  I,
• 6:44
  you know,
• 6:44
  unfortunately,
• 6:45
  I've made money on the Toronto Blue Jays this year
• 6:47
  because I want them to win and they keep losing.
• 6:49
  Um,
• 6:49
  and so I hedge my life on those markets.
• 6:51
  Uh,
• 6:52
  you know,
• 6:52
  that's,
• 6:52
  that's important to me,
• 6:53
  it might not be important to you.
• 6:55
  Uh,
• 6:55
  it's important to me.
• 6:56
  Uh,
• 6:56
  and you,
• 6:57
  you here's the thing that,
• 6:58
  that a lot of people in the media and in politics don't understand.
• 7:01
  You don't get to judge
• 7:02
  what's important to me.
• 7:04
  That's not how this works.
• 7:06
  Life works with you living yours and me living mine.
• 7:09
  You don't get to tell me what information
• 7:12
  and uh what uh my,
• 7:14
  uh,
• 7:14
  you know,
• 7:15
  what,
• 7:15
  uh,
• 7:15
  how I wanna use my money,
• 7:16
  uh,
• 7:17
  which things,
• 7:18
  pieces of information are important to me and which aren't.
• 7:21
  That's just not your choice,
• 7:22
  that's mine.
• 7:24
  And I think a lot of times we lose sight of that.
• 7:25
  Uh,
• 7:26
  which party will win the Senate?
• 7:27
  Let me take a quicker,
• 7:27
  a little closer look here,
• 7:29
  uh,
• 7:29
  when it comes to Calci.
• 7:30
  I still consider
• 7:32
  Now,
• 7:32
  now,
• 7:32
  I was telling you this,
• 7:33
  uh,
• 7:33
  this is which party will win the US Senate.
• 7:35
  Um,
• 7:36
  I,
• 7:36
  I've mentioned this before,
• 7:38
  kind of going back a ways.
• 7:39
  When you see,
• 7:40
  you see these two lines,
• 7:40
  I would just describe this to you if you,
• 7:42
  uh,
• 7:42
  listen on podcast.
• 7:43
  I know so many of you do,
• 7:44
  and I really,
• 7:45
  really,
• 7:45
  really appreciate that.
• 7:46
  Um,
• 7:46
  but just describing
• 7:48
  these lines as they,
• 7:49
  uh,
• 7:49
  as they intersect,
• 7:50
  you start with the Republicans with a massive lead.
• 7:53
  Structurally,
• 7:53
  the Senate is set up for the Republicans to win.
• 7:56
  They were up at about 80% at one point,
• 7:58
  that dropped down in,
• 7:59
  uh,
• 7:59
  in April.
• 8:00
  To about 70%,
• 8:02
  hung there for a while,
• 8:03
  then started,
• 8:04
  uh,
• 8:04
  that's April 2025,
• 8:05
  um,
• 8:06
  then started uh decreasing more and more
• 8:08
  as we get toward
• 8:10
  the,
• 8:11
  uh,
• 8:11
  2026 area and
• 8:12
  in the beginning of 2026,
• 8:14
  we saw basically a tie.
• 8:15
  At times,
• 8:16
  even the Democrats were ahead.
• 8:18
  Uh,
• 8:18
  at that point,
• 8:19
  uh,
• 8:19
  as I mentioned to you a bunch of times around then,
• 8:22
  I thought that,
• 8:22
  that Republicans were undervalued
• 8:25
  at about 47,
• 8:26
  48%.
• 8:28
  Um,
• 8:29
  they are now,
• 8:29
  it's about up to right now 55%,
• 8:33
  a 55-45% race.
• 8:35
  I tend to think of it more of like a 60/40,
• 8:37
  to be honest with you.
• 8:38
  Uh,
• 8:38
  when it comes to the Senate,
• 8:40
  we,
• 8:40
  I mean,
• 8:40
  even a race like Maine where I've kind of tossed that one out the,
• 8:44
  out the window and that it's gonna be very,
• 8:46
  very difficult.
• 8:47
  With everything that's happened in Maine,
• 8:48
  you have to consider that even more of a possibility that.
• 8:50
  Republicans hold it somehow,
• 8:52
  uh,
• 8:52
  so they are at 56% or 55,
• 8:55
  56%
• 8:56
  to win.
• 8:56
  The House is a disaster for Republicans.
• 8:58
  It's very,
• 8:59
  very difficult for the Republicans to win the House.
• 9:00
  This is not something,
• 9:02
  this is not the media spin.
• 9:03
  This is history.
• 9:04
  It's taught it to us over and over and over again.
• 9:06
  Some of the polling occasionally will look OK for Republicans.
• 9:10
  I,
• 9:10
  there's some that looks catastrophic.
• 9:12
  I think the real.
• 9:13
  I think in the middle is the right,
• 9:15
  uh,
• 9:15
  choice,
• 9:16
  but I do think Republicans likely lose the House.
• 9:18
  Right now that is priced at,
• 9:20
  uh,
• 9:20
  84% for the Democrats to win the House.
• 9:24
  But you go back,
• 9:24
  I mean,
• 9:25
  go back to,
• 9:25
  uh,
• 9:26
  late 2025 there where it's really close.
• 9:28
  I don't know if you can bring that up,
• 9:29
  Adam.
• 9:29
  Yeah,
• 9:29
  I mean,
• 9:30
  you see the Democrats
• 9:31
  were at only a 57% chance to win.
• 9:33
  I was buy,
• 9:34
  buy,
• 9:34
  buy,
• 9:34
  buy,
• 9:34
  buy,
• 9:35
  buy,
• 9:35
  buy.
• 9:35
  Uh,
• 9:36
  back then,
• 9:36
  and really I've been buying up to
• 9:39
  anything in the 70s.
• 9:40
  I'm really comfortable with buying.
• 9:42
  I think the price is probably in the low 90s,
• 9:45
  their chance to win
• 9:46
  uh the house.
• 9:47
  So,
• 9:47
  I mean,
• 9:47
  I,
• 9:47
  there's a little bit of room to run here,
• 9:49
  even at 84 or 86,
• 9:51
  uh,
• 9:51
  but it's not nearly as exciting when you're talking about a trading perspective.
• 9:55
  When you're talking about the outcome for the country,
• 9:57
  this is a big limitation on what the Republicans are able to achieve,
• 10:01
  uh,
• 10:01
  with the last two years of Trump's second term.
• 10:04
  Um,
• 10:04
  you know,
• 10:05
  if the Republicans are able to hold the Senate,
• 10:07
  that is really,
• 10:08
  really important,
• 10:09
  um,
• 10:10
  for a multitude of reasons,
• 10:12
  but judges and nominations,
• 10:13
  the Supreme Court,
• 10:15
  uh,
• 10:15
  is,
• 10:15
  is really,
• 10:16
  really vital as well when it comes to that place.
• 10:18
  So that is
• 10:19
  kind of a,
• 10:20
  a situation you wanna watch
• 10:21
  when it comes to the country.
• 10:22
  Uh,
• 10:23
  the Senate,
• 10:24
  you gotta hold the Senate if you're Republicans.
• 10:26
  This,
• 10:26
  this map is a gift to you.
• 10:28
  Uh,
• 10:29
  you just have to win
• 10:30
  easy,
• 10:31
  basic races to hold it.
• 10:32
  You don't need to go crazy.
• 10:34
  You don't need to pick off,
• 10:35
  uh,
• 10:35
  Michigan,
• 10:36
  for example,
• 10:37
  which I think especially if El Sayyed is the candidate,
• 10:39
  there's another debate tonight that's gonna be an,
• 10:40
  an,
• 10:41
  an entertaining one to watch.
• 10:42
  I,
• 10:42
  I'll tell you,
• 10:42
  I watched the last one.
• 10:45
  but,
• 10:45
  you know,
• 10:45
  if El Sayed wins,
• 10:46
  you know,
• 10:46
  is he so far to the left as a democratic socialist,
• 10:50
  as a guy who obviously hates Israel and,
• 10:52
  you know,
• 10:53
  seemingly Jews,
• 10:54
  generally,
• 10:55
  uh,
• 10:55
  is that gonna be too far for the people of Michigan?
• 10:58
  Uh,
• 10:58
  when the Republicans are running a pretty solid candidate in Michigan,
• 11:01
  we will see,
• 11:02
  uh,
• 11:02
  but a race like that is up for debate,
• 11:04
  and if that one winds up being close,
• 11:06
  Republicans should have no problem,
• 11:07
  uh,
• 11:08
  holding on to the Senate.
• 11:09
  But that's something they absolutely have to do
• 11:11
  if they want to really be able to achieve
• 11:13
  anything outside of a bunch of executive orders in.
• 11:15
  The rest of Trump's term,
• 11:17
  at least at that point they'd,
• 11:18
  they'd have a window there to hold on to that Supreme Court,
• 11:21
  um,
• 11:22
  if,
• 11:22
  uh,
• 11:22
  God forbid somebody decides to,
• 11:23
  uh,
• 11:24
  uh,
• 11:25
  you know,
• 11:25
  leave or,
• 11:26
  uh,
• 11:27
  has health issues or whatever the story is,
• 11:29
  um,
• 11:29
  the Supreme Court it's always a risk.
• 11:30
  These people are not,
• 11:31
  uh,
• 11:31
  spring chickens,
• 11:32
  and even if they are.
• 11:34
  Even when,
• 11:34
  even the spring chickens have their health issues from time to time,
• 11:37
  so we will see how that goes
• 11:38
  as well.
• 11:39
  That's kind of where we are as far as the election
• 11:41
  goes right now,
• 11:42
  kind of looking out into the future.
• 11:44
  I wanna take a quick break.
• 11:45
  I wanna come back on the other side with just a
• 11:47
  uh uh uh a a a kind of a,
• 11:49
  a A new set of tools we're developing here at Predictable
• 11:52
  to make the next 100 days
• 11:54
  the most profitable possible for you,
• 11:56
  to get you the information the best way possible,
• 11:58
  and some new things we're offering here
• 12:00
  on the show and with the company.
• 12:02
  I think you're gonna like them.
• 12:03
  I wanna talk to you about that
• 12:04
  next.
• 12:19
  Welcome back to Predictable with Stu.
• 12:21
  We're on YouTube,
• 12:22
  Youtube.com/atpredictableshow.
• 12:25
  It's a great place to go.
• 12:26
  You get the whole show
• 12:27
  for free every single day.
• 12:28
  We love bringing it to you there.
• 12:29
  We're also on podcast,
• 12:31
  on the audio side.
• 12:32
  I know so many of you watch on audio,
• 12:34
  we appreciate that.
• 12:35
  You don't watch on audio,
• 12:36
  but you listen on audio,
• 12:37
  uh,
• 12:37
  and you take the show in every single day there.
• 12:39
  So thank you so much for,
• 12:41
  uh,
• 12:41
  being on audio.
• 12:41
  Really,
• 12:42
  wherever you get your podcast,
• 12:43
  you can sign up
• 12:44
  and,
• 12:45
  uh,
• 12:45
  get that in your feed free every single day.
• 12:47
  And of course,
• 12:48
  we're on all the social media stuff as well,
• 12:50
  typically at predictable
• 12:52
  show.
• 12:52
  Um,
• 12:53
  we've been looking for ways to grow and expand,
• 12:57
  and we've been,
• 12:57
  uh,
• 12:58
  thinking about that for a long time since,
• 12:59
  you know,
• 13:00
  long before we even really started broadcasting the show.
• 13:03
  One of the goals of the show was to bring you the best election information,
• 13:06
  stuff that cuts through
• 13:08
  all the nonsense,
• 13:09
  right?
• 13:10
  Uh,
• 13:11
  we get that nonsense every day from the mainstream media,
• 13:14
  from varying campaigns,
• 13:16
  even from some,
• 13:17
  uh,
• 13:17
  journalists and,
• 13:18
  and,
• 13:19
  you know,
• 13:19
  people who are on our side or,
• 13:21
  uh,
• 13:21
  or the other side,
• 13:22
  certainly,
• 13:23
  uh,
• 13:23
  you get all sorts of spun information.
• 13:25
  And what I love about prediction markets
• 13:28
  is this ability for them to cut through all of that.
• 13:31
  Right,
• 13:32
  there,
• 13:32
  you know,
• 13:32
  uh,
• 13:32
  uh,
• 13:33
  on the,
• 13:34
  um,
• 13:34
  we're gonna go to the Netflix documentary a little bit more,
• 13:37
  uh,
• 13:37
  last night,
• 13:38
  but,
• 13:38
  uh,
• 13:38
  it might have been Tarek Munster from,
• 13:40
  uh,
• 13:40
  from Calci who,
• 13:41
  who
• 13:42
  said basically like you're at a,
• 13:43
  you're at your Thanksgiving table,
• 13:44
  everyone's got their crazy theories,
• 13:46
  and then you say,
• 13:46
  all right,
• 13:46
  well,
• 13:46
  let's put 10 bucks on that,
• 13:48
  and everyone kind of shuts up,
• 13:50
  right?
• 13:50
  Like it's a great way of describing
• 13:52
  what prediction markets are really good at.
• 13:54
  You know,
• 13:55
  uh,
• 13:55
  if you believe something that is kind of crazy,
• 13:57
  are you,
• 13:57
  do you believe it enough to go,
• 13:59
  you believe enough,
• 13:59
  sure,
• 14:00
  to argue with somebody on Twitter or even at the Thanksgiving table,
• 14:02
  but do you believe it enough
• 14:04
  to put your money where your mouth is?
• 14:05
  And when that happens,
• 14:07
  what typically goes on
• 14:08
  is that these markets are pretty darn efficient,
• 14:10
  and they give you
• 14:11
  a distilling
• 14:12
  of all of this information in a,
• 14:15
  into a place,
• 14:16
  into one single number.
• 14:17
  That you can really judge
• 14:19
  where we are,
• 14:20
  uh,
• 14:20
  at this particular moment in our very,
• 14:23
  very,
• 14:24
  uh,
• 14:25
  crazy history right now.
• 14:26
  Things change on a day to day basis,
• 14:28
  and of course,
• 14:29
  prediction markets can pick up those changes
• 14:31
  faster than anyone.
• 14:31
  Another example they used on this,
• 14:33
  on the documentary was the debate
• 14:36
  when Biden was screwing up.
• 14:38
  You know,
• 14:38
  even a,
• 14:38
  even a,
• 14:39
  even a poll that you take,
• 14:40
  an Insta poll right as the debate is over,
• 14:42
  you,
• 14:42
  you still have to wait.
• 14:44
  Uh,
• 14:44
  for an hour,
• 14:45
  for that to be all processed and everything else.
• 14:47
  Most of the real polling takes days and days and days and days and days for
• 14:51
  a,
• 14:51
  uh,
• 14:52
  uh,
• 14:52
  you know,
• 14:52
  an election outcome to be worked in,
• 14:55
  uh,
• 14:56
  for something like that debate.
• 14:58
  Um,
• 14:59
  prediction markets did it almost instantly,
• 15:00
  right?
• 15:01
  Not necessarily based on data in that circumstance,
• 15:03
  just based on people's eyeballs
• 15:05
  as they were watching Joe Biden,
• 15:07
  uh,
• 15:07
  freeze up in front of the country.
• 15:09
  They were able to react faster than everybody else and delivered that information
• 15:13
  in a more efficient package,
• 15:15
  uh,
• 15:16
  than really any other,
• 15:17
  uh,
• 15:17
  medium,
• 15:18
  and that's why I love them so much.
• 15:20
  Uh,
• 15:21
  we keep diving deeper and deeper into the world of prediction markets,
• 15:24
  and we try to give you the best information
• 15:26
  possible.
• 15:26
  And,
• 15:27
  and so what we're gonna be doing today is announcing and introducing
• 15:31
  a,
• 15:31
  uh,
• 15:31
  a paid tier to our
• 15:34
  website,
• 15:34
  predictableshow.com.
• 15:36
  It's gonna give you more access and more information,
• 15:38
  uh,
• 15:39
  than you would get,
• 15:39
  uh,
• 15:40
  normally,
• 15:40
  but I wanna make sure something's clear cause we talked about this
• 15:42
  from a company perspective behind the scenes for a very long time.
• 15:46
  And one of the things that I've like
• 15:48
  made sure that I keep reinforcing over and over and over again as we talk about this
• 15:52
  is anything that you've had access to since we launched this show,
• 15:56
  anything that we've been doing,
• 15:57
  the show itself,
• 15:59
  comments on the sub-stack,
• 16:00
  the articles on the sub-stack,
• 16:01
  all that stuff is gonna remain free.
• 16:03
  I don't want any of that to change.
• 16:04
  I want you
• 16:05
  to be able to access this information.
• 16:07
  Whenever you can,
• 16:08
  whenever you want,
• 16:10
  for free.
• 16:11
  Uh,
• 16:11
  so that is something that is going to continue
• 16:14
  from everything that we've been doing this entire time,
• 16:17
  up until now.
• 16:18
  It's all gonna remain there with you,
• 16:21
  available
• 16:22
  for no charge at all.
• 16:23
  This election's really,
• 16:24
  really important.
• 16:25
  And if you're just the type of person who's like,
• 16:26
  look,
• 16:26
  I need to understand this,
• 16:28
  and I don't wanna be spun by anybody in the media anymore.
• 16:31
  I don't want that.
• 16:32
  I want,
• 16:32
  uh,
• 16:33
  I want the good news and the bad news,
• 16:34
  no matter what it says.
• 16:36
  And that is going to be
• 16:38
  for you,
• 16:39
  available for free,
• 16:40
  the show in the same.
• 16:41
  Same places,
• 16:41
  podcast,
• 16:42
  YouTube,
• 16:43
  all that,
• 16:44
  still the same,
• 16:45
  no changes at all.
• 16:46
  If you're not interested in the pay tier,
• 16:47
  I love you.
• 16:48
  I love you anyway.
• 16:49
  I'm so glad you came and you show up.
• 16:51
  You don't worry about it.
• 16:52
  It's not a big deal.
• 16:53
  If it's something that is interested to you,
• 16:55
  uh,
• 16:56
  interesting to you,
• 16:56
  however,
• 16:57
  I wanna tell you about what we're gonna be doing with it because there is information
• 17:00
  and especially if you happen to be a person who does trade on these markets.
• 17:04
  I think it's probably worth your time and,
• 17:06
  and your money as well.
• 17:07
  So everything that you have now
• 17:09
  is,
• 17:09
  is here and it's something that is going to remain
• 17:12
  free for you
• 17:14
  as we add these new features to
• 17:16
  the paid tier.
• 17:17
  Um,
• 17:18
  uh,
• 17:19
  Let me start with this.
• 17:21
  The number one thing
• 17:22
  that you guys have asked for since we started this,
• 17:26
  I,
• 17:26
  I've had,
• 17:27
  it has to be hundreds of comments and messages,
• 17:30
  uh,
• 17:31
  over every platform,
• 17:33
  is,
• 17:33
  can you just tell me
• 17:36
  what your positions are?
• 17:37
  Uh,
• 17:37
  and look,
• 17:38
  I do tell you,
• 17:39
  I,
• 17:40
  I keep,
• 17:40
  I kept coming back to people.
• 17:41
  I was trying to like Joe Biden trying to say Bidenomics was working.
• 17:44
  I was like,
• 17:45
  look,
• 17:45
  I do tell you,
• 17:46
  I tell you all the time what I'm talking about.
• 17:48
  Like we go through every position,
• 17:50
  uh,
• 17:50
  on the show.
• 17:51
  Uh,
• 17:51
  I don't,
• 17:52
  uh,
• 17:52
  you know,
• 17:52
  I'm not hiding these things from you,
• 17:54
  I promise,
• 17:55
  uh,
• 17:55
  but
• 17:56
  The problem is when you,
• 17:57
  like,
• 17:57
  what people want basically,
• 17:59
  is a place to go to see all the positions that
• 18:02
  I have and that I'm looking into in one clean place,
• 18:05
  right?
• 18:06
  That is
• 18:07
  uh what they want.
• 18:08
  And I understand that,
• 18:09
  and,
• 18:09
  you know,
• 18:10
  and there's,
• 18:10
  I have some hesitations,
• 18:11
  frankly,
• 18:12
  um,
• 18:12
  with
• 18:13
  doing something like that.
• 18:14
  Number one,
• 18:15
  obviously,
• 18:15
  this is not an investment advice show.
• 18:17
  I do not hold your finances at my,
• 18:19
  uh,
• 18:20
  every,
• 18:20
  everyday whim.
• 18:21
  Um,
• 18:22
  I want you to,
• 18:23
  one of the reasons why we did the show this way and I didn't just like start a fund
• 18:26
  was because,
• 18:27
  you know,
• 18:27
  I think
• 18:28
  people understanding these things and allowing,
• 18:30
  uh,
• 18:31
  people to,
• 18:31
  to get more information and understanding and education
• 18:35
  about these markets
• 18:37
  allows a lot more people to get into them,
• 18:39
  right?
• 18:39
  And if you're kind of just like checking the box of a fund or,
• 18:42
  you know,
• 18:42
  I'm just sitting here at a computer trading myself,
• 18:45
  none of that stuff happens.
• 18:46
  And so,
• 18:47
  I think talking through this stuff is,
• 18:48
  is
• 18:49
  a better way.
• 18:51
  Uh,
• 18:51
  to be able to deliver that information,
• 18:53
  uh,
• 18:53
  to you when it comes to the full context of it.
• 18:56
  Uh,
• 18:56
  I don't want to control your family's finances.
• 18:58
  I don't want,
• 18:59
  that's not something necessarily I have an interest in
• 19:02
  at the moment.
• 19:03
  What I,
• 19:03
  what I would like to do is,
• 19:04
  is help people understand these markets better
• 19:07
  and also,
• 19:08
  uh,
• 19:09
  you know,
• 19:09
  be able,
• 19:10
  uh,
• 19:10
  to see the way that I'm thinking and either
• 19:13
  accept or reject it,
• 19:14
  right?
• 19:14
  I think that's the way I've always
• 19:16
  tried to do this show and previous shows.
• 19:18
  A lot of times,
• 19:19
  I would say
• 19:20
  probably a higher percentage than any other show that I,
• 19:23
  uh,
• 19:24
  listen to in the conservative space at least,
• 19:26
  always try to say,
• 19:28
  hey,
• 19:28
  look,
• 19:29
  uh,
• 19:29
  you guys probably hate me today,
• 19:30
  but this is how I feel about this.
• 19:32
  I don't mind telling you
• 19:33
  when we disagree and I think that's OK.
• 19:35
  It's what I like about shows.
• 19:36
  I like being challenged and trying to understand them.
• 19:39
  Um,
• 19:39
  so that's one of the things I do think is,
• 19:41
  is,
• 19:41
  is a great,
• 19:42
  uh,
• 19:43
  a,
• 19:43
  a,
• 19:43
  a great part of,
• 19:44
  of what we're doing here.
• 19:46
  That being said,
• 19:46
  I get that,
• 19:47
  you know,
• 19:47
  this is something that would be easier.
• 19:49
  People have,
• 19:49
  are busy.
• 19:50
  They don't get to listen to every live stream.
• 19:51
  They don't get to watch every single social media message that gets posted.
• 19:55
  So,
• 19:55
  what we're gonna,
• 19:56
  we're gonna do here as part of this uh new paid tier that starts,
• 19:59
  uh,
• 19:59
  today,
• 19:59
  a couple of you found it early and I appreciate that,
• 20:02
  uh,
• 20:02
  but,
• 20:02
  uh,
• 20:03
  you're welcome into the family.
• 20:04
  Um,
• 20:05
  but
• 20:05
  what we're talking about here is,
• 20:07
  uh,
• 20:07
  being able to put a central place together where you can see all of the positions,
• 20:11
  uh,
• 20:11
  that I have on a day to day basis.
• 20:14
  When I get into them,
• 20:15
  when I get out of them,
• 20:16
  when I resize them,
• 20:18
  all of that.
• 20:19
  Happening kind of in front of your eyes.
• 20:21
  It's gonna happen in a couple of different places.
• 20:23
  One,
• 20:23
  as we do a quick update,
• 20:25
  it will be in a subscriber-only chat.
• 20:28
  This is uh for people,
• 20:29
  for paid subscribers
• 20:31
  who will have a chat,
• 20:32
  have a chat where you guys can talk about stuff amongst yourself,
• 20:34
  put out positions that you are interested in.
• 20:36
  We've built a great community at,
• 20:38
  uh,
• 20:38
  at,
• 20:39
  at,
• 20:39
  at PredictableShow.com and I wanna continue building that even bigger.
• 20:43
  So there will be a subscriber-only chat,
• 20:46
  and that'll be a place where I will just,
• 20:47
  when I'm in the middle of trading.
• 20:49
  When I'm done with the trade or I'm about to make a trade,
• 20:51
  I will pop in there and say,
• 20:52
  hey,
• 20:52
  this is what I'm doing right now,
• 20:53
  this is where I'm moving.
• 20:54
  So you see that in real time.
• 20:55
  And then we'll also,
• 20:56
  it's not quite up there quite yet,
• 20:58
  but soon we'll have
• 20:59
  a place where all of them are,
• 21:01
  are listed.
• 21:01
  I was,
• 21:02
  I spent about
• 21:03
  12 hours,
• 21:05
  honestly,
• 21:05
  between two days
• 21:06
  this weekend in a,
• 21:07
  uh,
• 21:08
  a position,
• 21:09
  uh,
• 21:10
  spreadsheet that I don't
• 21:12
  update enough.
• 21:13
  Um,
• 21:14
  like,
• 21:14
  getting all of this ready for you.
• 21:16
  And wanting to show this to you,
• 21:18
  so it's gonna take a little bit of time until we have everything together,
• 21:20
  but
• 21:21
  we're gonna start listing those positions here very,
• 21:23
  very soon as part of the subscriber-only
• 21:26
  predictable
• 21:27
  chat.
• 21:27
  That's gonna be a place too,
• 21:28
  where you can ask questions,
• 21:30
  where you can go back and forth,
• 21:31
  uh,
• 21:31
  on different issues,
• 21:33
  and I will still
• 21:34
  continue to answer your questions on the normal feeds as well.
• 21:38
  I wanna make sure that that's clear because I've been doing that and I like doing it.
• 21:41
  Uh,
• 21:42
  we'll be doing that and we'll be doing that on the show here in a little bit as well.
• 21:45
  So that's available
• 21:46
  to you now and,
• 21:47
  and you might say,
• 21:47
  well,
• 21:48
  OK,
• 21:48
  you know,
• 21:48
  I,
• 21:49
  uh,
• 21:49
  what does that mean exactly?
• 21:51
  I wanna describe a little bit about what it means as
• 21:53
  far as the predictions that we've been making for the elections
• 21:56
  and,
• 21:57
  uh,
• 21:57
  how that can connect with you and,
• 21:59
  and see if,
• 22:00
  if this is worth your time.
• 22:01
  I think it is,
• 22:02
  frankly,
• 22:03
  one of the central
• 22:04
  parts about this is I want to make sure that this
• 22:07
  pays for itself easily.
• 22:09
  OK.
• 22:10
  Not only in the fact that you get additional access to the show,
• 22:13
  you get additional access to me and the team here,
• 22:16
  but also just if you're on prediction markets and you're learning about them,
• 22:20
  and you might see some positions that wind up being beneficial to you.
• 22:23
  So,
• 22:24
  I went through this,
• 22:24
  as I said,
• 22:25
  I spent 12 hours in spreadsheets this weekend,
• 22:27
  which is only honestly slightly different than my normal weekend.
• 22:31
  Uh,
• 22:31
  but this is basically what we put together.
• 22:33
  Um,
• 22:34
  the 16th Amendment to our Constitution is size does matter,
• 22:38
  and it matters how you size your prediction market positions as you enter into any,
• 22:43
  any individual
• 22:45
  contract.
• 22:46
  How much confidence do you have?
• 22:48
  So we've talked about this in 5 different categories,
• 22:51
  starting with the marker position.
• 22:52
  So let me go through this with you,
• 22:53
  how we've done so far.
• 22:55
  You've probably been watching,
• 22:56
  uh,
• 22:56
  you've seen certain predictions come and go.
• 22:59
  I wanna give you a full audit here as to what we've
• 23:02
  done so far this election season when it comes to the primaries.
• 23:06
  So these are just elections,
• 23:07
  these aren't,
• 23:08
  you know,
• 23:08
  there's no LeBron James worked into this at all.
• 23:11
  This is how we've done so far.
• 23:12
  The smallest
• 23:13
  position that we take is called a marker position,
• 23:15
  and this marker position
• 23:17
  is like,
• 23:17
  hey,
• 23:18
  I wanna make sure
• 23:19
  that,
• 23:20
  you know,
• 23:20
  I remember this market.
• 23:21
  I wanna look into it further.
• 23:23
  I'm not gonna do any research.
• 23:24
  It's just,
• 23:25
  I saw the market and I put a little marker on there.
• 23:27
  It's can be,
• 23:28
  and I think a lot of people do it this way,
• 23:30
  um,
• 23:30
  as small as one share,
• 23:32
  right?
• 23:32
  It's something basically just to make sure you remember
• 23:34
  to look at this market a little bit deeper.
• 23:36
  It marks the position for you.
• 23:38
  And so we've taken 51 of those positions so far,
• 23:41
  uh,
• 23:41
  in this election cycle,
• 23:43
  and we've hit those at a rate of 76.5%.
• 23:46
  Uh,
• 23:47
  you know,
• 23:47
  I'm,
• 23:47
  uh,
• 23:48
  that's a,
• 23:48
  I'm happy with that.
• 23:49
  I think that's,
• 23:49
  that's pretty good.
• 23:50
  But again,
• 23:50
  that's not
• 23:51
  exactly a deeply researched
• 23:53
  position.
• 23:54
  Um,
• 23:55
  but I will tell you about each one of those marker positions that I take
• 23:58
  as we go forward,
• 23:59
  you can look at those,
• 24:00
  you can,
• 24:01
  you know,
• 24:01
  throw them to the side,
• 24:02
  you can just put them in a file,
• 24:03
  you can do whatever you want with them.
• 24:04
  But that's where we are so far,
• 24:06
  39 and 12,
• 24:07
  a 76.5%,
• 24:08
  uh,
• 24:09
  success rate.
• 24:10
  The next higher size of,
• 24:12
  uh,
• 24:12
  position here is the small position.
• 24:15
  The small position is,
• 24:16
  you know,
• 24:16
  it's enough to say,
• 24:18
  hey,
• 24:19
  uh,
• 24:19
  I,
• 24:20
  I've now have a real take on this,
• 24:22
  right?
• 24:23
  I went in and I,
• 24:24
  you know,
• 24:24
  I may have made it a marker position before.
• 24:26
  Now I'm upsizing this cause I really do have a take on this.
• 24:29
  It's not a
• 24:30
  I don't have high confidence in it.
• 24:31
  I don't have a deep conviction in it.
• 24:33
  I might not have done
• 24:35
  real deep research on it,
• 24:36
  maybe a couple of surface things.
• 24:38
  Maybe I read an article that just made me a little bit convinced.
• 24:41
  I'm gonna take a small position on that.
• 24:42
  We've taken 50 of those positions so far
• 24:45
  in elections this year,
• 24:47
  and we are 41-9
• 24:49
  on those positions,
• 24:50
  hitting at a rate of 82%.
• 24:53
  Um,
• 24:54
  now,
• 24:54
  we will go to the bigger one.
• 24:56
  This is something that I,
• 24:57
  I only get to the medium position
• 24:59
  when I really have confidence in it,
• 25:01
  right?
• 25:02
  Like I'm getting to the place,
• 25:03
  I'm not like willing to bet my house on it,
• 25:05
  I'm not willing to bet my kids's future on it,
• 25:07
  but I'm taking a significant thing that I will
• 25:09
  be really freaking annoyed if I miss on one.
• 25:11
  And,
• 25:11
  uh,
• 25:12
  that's exactly what I've done.
• 25:13
  I've missed on one.
• 25:14
  We've taken 43 of those positions so far,
• 25:16
  and we are 42.
• 25:17
  And 1
• 25:18
  on the medium
• 25:19
  confidence and size position.
• 25:21
  That's a success rate of 97.7%.
• 25:24
  You are asking one question right now and I know exactly what it is.
• 25:27
  Glenn Beck told me this many,
• 25:28
  many years ago.
• 25:29
  When you say something like 42 and 1,
• 25:31
  there's one question that everyone asks,
• 25:33
  what is the one?
• 25:34
  We will ignore the 42 wins.
• 25:36
  What was the one?
• 25:38
  The one I will tell you,
• 25:39
  and it is a sad,
• 25:41
  sad story.
• 25:42
  Uh,
• 25:42
  it was
• 25:43
  that Lindsey Graham would have a big blowout
• 25:46
  in his primary.
• 25:47
  I had him,
• 25:47
  I think it was over 65 or 70% of the vote.
• 25:50
  I thought there was a chance
• 25:51
  that we might hit one of those long shot positions there.
• 25:53
  It was a,
• 25:54
  it was a long shot.
• 25:55
  I did have a decent amount in that,
• 25:56
  and I took it on the chin,
• 25:58
  unfortunately.
• 25:59
  Now,
• 25:59
  Senator Graham is,
• 26:00
  uh,
• 26:00
  has passed away.
• 26:01
  His sister might take the role.
• 26:03
  There's been so many developments,
• 26:04
  but that was the one.
• 26:05
  However,
• 26:06
  I'm pretty happy with 97.7%
• 26:09
  success rate.
• 26:10
  Uh,
• 26:10
  after that,
• 26:10
  you go into a bigger position,
• 26:12
  and this bigger position is one where it's not gonna wipe us out if we lose,
• 26:17
  uh,
• 26:17
  but I wanna make sure,
• 26:18
  I like,
• 26:19
  I never intend to lose a large position,
• 26:21
  and so far this election season,
• 26:23
  we have not lost a large position.
• 26:25
  We are 25-0
• 26:27
  on large positions that we have taken so far,
• 26:29
  100% success rate.
• 26:30
  Um,
• 26:31
  you know,
• 26:31
  when we get to that level of confidence where it's a large position.
• 26:35
  Like,
• 26:35
  it's very,
• 26:36
  very rare that I feel
• 26:39
  risk.
• 26:39
  One of the recent positions that we had on this was John Hickenlooper to win.
• 26:43
  In Colorado.
• 26:44
  And that's about as close as I ever want to get,
• 26:46
  frankly.
• 26:46
  Uh,
• 26:47
  you know,
• 26:47
  he still won comfortably.
• 26:48
  Uh,
• 26:49
  but I had some nerves going into that.
• 26:50
  I was buying shares,
• 26:51
  uh,
• 26:52
  you know,
• 26:52
  in the,
• 26:52
  in the 80s for that one.
• 26:54
  I liked the profit,
• 26:55
  uh,
• 26:55
  margin there.
• 26:56
  I thought there was a really good case that he was going
• 26:58
  to win that race.
• 27:00
  What I would say he was a little bit
• 27:01
  closer to the line that I felt comfortable with,
• 27:04
  but still,
• 27:04
  we cleared it easily.
• 27:05
  In fact,
• 27:05
  we've cleared it 25 consecutive times with large positions in this election so far.
• 27:09
  So at the large position,
• 27:11
  we are 25-0.
• 27:12
  And then above that is an all-in position.
• 27:15
  I very rarely go there.
• 27:16
  It's only when I feel massively confident about something,
• 27:19
  and uh we are,
• 27:20
  we have 6 of those so far and we are 6 and 0
• 27:23
  in those.
• 27:24
  Again,
• 27:24
  I
• 27:25
  never intend to lose an all-in position,
• 27:28
  and I don't think I ever have.
• 27:29
  I don't,
• 27:29
  I can't remember the last time I lost a large one.
• 27:31
  Uh,
• 27:31
  the medium ones occasionally will go down.
• 27:33
  I think 42-1 on the mediums at 97.7% success rate
• 27:37
  is probably a little higher than I would expect it to be.
• 27:40
  I would expect to lose a few more of those,
• 27:42
  and sometimes,
• 27:43
  uh,
• 27:43
  a criticism of myself
• 27:45
  is that I get a little
• 27:47
  worried about the success rates and don't.
• 27:50
  Upsize my positions enough
• 27:52
  into the medium range.
• 27:53
  Some of those smalls probably should have been mediums,
• 27:55
  and we could have gone
• 27:56
  62 and 4
• 27:58
  or something instead.
• 27:59
  But overall,
• 28:00
  I'm pretty pleased with that,
• 28:01
  and I think if you've been watching the show on a day to day basis,
• 28:05
  if you're in these markets,
• 28:06
  you've probably done pretty well with them.
• 28:08
  Um,
• 28:08
  and I'm glad to hear that.
• 28:10
  I see you talking in the comments often
• 28:12
  about how well you have done.
• 28:13
  Hopefully,
• 28:14
  uh,
• 28:14
  you've done well enough to
• 28:16
  more than pay for a paid tier of this
• 28:19
  subscription.
• 28:21
  While this is a paid tier,
• 28:22
  and we are adding a lot of features that will,
• 28:24
  uh,
• 28:25
  wind up,
• 28:25
  you know,
• 28:25
  costing us and we need to hire people to maintain them,
• 28:28
  you know,
• 28:29
  uh,
• 28:29
  I really hope this just pays for itself.
• 28:31
  It pays for itself either,
• 28:32
  uh,
• 28:32
  uh,
• 28:33
  with access to the show,
• 28:35
  or it pays for itself,
• 28:36
  uh,
• 28:37
  you know,
• 28:37
  frankly,
• 28:37
  dollar for dollar,
• 28:38
  uh,
• 28:38
  and much,
• 28:39
  much more.
• 28:40
  If you happen to be someone who's trading,
• 28:42
  this tier,
• 28:42
  I think will be interesting to you,
• 28:44
  and I think well worth your time.
• 28:46
  Because you can not only get access to my picks,
• 28:48
  but we'll also have deeper discussion on these things.
• 28:50
  Um,
• 28:51
  and
• 28:52
  in addition to that,
• 28:53
  if you happen to be on Sub stack right now and you're watching this show live,
• 28:56
  this is one of the other features that we'll be giving to paid
• 29:00
  subscribers.
• 29:01
  Um,
• 29:01
  we're kind of demoing it sort of under the radar.
• 29:03
  We haven't really talked about it at all,
• 29:05
  just kind of work out the technology,
• 29:07
  but we're now doing a live stream of the taping every day
• 29:09
  at SubStack.
• 29:10
  This is gonna remain free for a little while,
• 29:12
  so you can kinda check it out,
• 29:13
  see if it's,
• 29:14
  it's,
• 29:14
  it's,
• 29:14
  uh,
• 29:15
  interesting to you.
• 29:16
  Um,
• 29:17
  we talk about this often,
• 29:18
  we go into commercial breaks,
• 29:19
  you kind of just see me
• 29:20
  sitting here
• 29:21
  shuffling my cards,
• 29:22
  getting everything ready for the next segment.
• 29:24
  So some of it is just kind of like,
• 29:25
  hey,
• 29:26
  uh,
• 29:26
  an overweight white man is,
• 29:28
  is playing with his index cards.
• 29:30
  That sounds fun.
• 29:31
  Um,
• 29:32
  so it's not always the sexiest thing in the world,
• 29:33
  but one of the reasons why I think it's important to do,
• 29:36
  and why I think it's a valuable feature for paid subscribers,
• 29:39
  particularly traders,
• 29:40
  is if,
• 29:40
  you know,
• 29:41
  if you are a trader,
• 29:42
  you've seen this happen multiple times,
• 29:43
  as we've talked about markets.
• 29:44
  A lot of times we will
• 29:46
  talk about a market
• 29:47
  and it'll be at 86,
• 29:48
  and by the time,
• 29:49
  uh,
• 29:50
  you know,
• 29:50
  you get to it,
• 29:51
  uh,
• 29:51
  hours and hours later,
• 29:52
  it's 92% because
• 29:54
  a lot of people watch the show,
• 29:55
  a lot of people go on the markets,
• 29:56
  they start buying,
• 29:57
  it might influence the,
• 29:58
  uh,
• 29:58
  The way these markets go sometimes,
• 30:00
  or other information is breaking and,
• 30:02
  and that,
• 30:03
  that lag of when we tape the show to
• 30:06
  when the show actually
• 30:07
  airs or maybe you get to it
• 30:09
  isn't is,
• 30:09
  is
• 30:10
  eating into your profit,
• 30:12
  you know,
• 30:12
  if you're not,
• 30:13
  if you're just a person who just wants to see what's going on with the election,
• 30:15
  that's,
• 30:16
  that's one thing and that's totally cool.
• 30:18
  You don't necessarily need access to the show.
• 30:19
  We'd love to have you as part of the paid tier,
• 30:21
  but you don't necessarily need to get that hour or two early.
• 30:24
  It might not make that big of a difference to you.
• 30:26
  But it probably will make a difference to you
• 30:28
  if you are someone who trades relatively frequently.
• 30:32
  Getting that information first and early is important.
• 30:34
  Getting the access to the picks first and early is important.
• 30:38
  Uh,
• 30:38
  if you happen to be a person
• 30:40
  who trades on these markets,
• 30:41
  and I wanna make sure you're getting that information as early as you can,
• 30:44
  as accurately as you can,
• 30:46
  and look,
• 30:46
  I want you to be,
• 30:47
  you know,
• 30:47
  hold me accountable.
• 30:48
  Um,
• 30:49
  you know,
• 30:49
  that's,
• 30:49
  uh,
• 30:49
  that's something that's,
• 30:50
  that's,
• 30:50
  that's,
• 30:51
  that's important as well.
• 30:52
  So,
• 30:53
  that's gonna be part of the,
• 30:54
  uh,
• 30:54
  live tier.
• 30:55
  So you're gonna have,
• 30:56
  uh,
• 30:56
  the part of the pay tier,
• 30:57
  you can get this,
• 30:58
  by the way,
• 30:58
  at predictableShow.com.
• 30:59
  I would love it if you just went there.
• 31:01
  And subscribed
• 31:02
  to the paid tier and joined us as part of the team,
• 31:05
  uh,
• 31:05
  because there's a bunch of different features that we have
• 31:07
  now and many more that we're adding here in,
• 31:09
  uh,
• 31:09
  in the future.
• 31:10
  So you're gonna get that live stream of the studio show every single day,
• 31:13
  or at least every day that it's,
• 31:15
  uh,
• 31:15
  theoretically feasible.
• 31:17
  There are some days probably where there's studio concerns,
• 31:19
  but generally speaking,
• 31:20
  you'll get that
• 31:21
  every single day,
• 31:22
  early
• 31:22
  before everybody else,
• 31:23
  before YouTube,
• 31:24
  before podcast.
• 31:25
  Uh,
• 31:26
  again,
• 31:26
  uh,
• 31:27
  it's,
• 31:27
  it's,
• 31:27
  it's a,
• 31:27
  it's a nice benefit.
• 31:28
  I think you'll enjoy it.
• 31:29
  I also talked to you in between the commercial breaks,
• 31:32
  uh,
• 31:32
  talked to the sub stack,
• 31:33
  uh,
• 31:33
  crew.
• 31:34
  Uh,
• 31:34
  over at PredictableShow.com.
• 31:36
  These are people that are getting on the ground floor,
• 31:37
  right?
• 31:38
  And we're talking to you guys,
• 31:39
  going back and forth.
• 31:40
  I'm answering your comments
• 31:41
  after the show.
• 31:42
  A lot of times I will do a Q&A with whatever comments we have,
• 31:45
  just to kinda chat at the end.
• 31:47
  So that's part of it as well.
• 31:49
  You also get direct communication
• 31:51
  to me and the team
• 31:52
  about
• 31:52
  maybe your positions.
• 31:53
  You wanna ask a question about,
• 31:54
  hey,
• 31:55
  I saw this market,
• 31:55
  what do you think about this?
• 31:56
  We had a situation,
• 31:57
  uh,
• 31:58
  just the other day where someone said,
• 32:00
  hey,
• 32:01
  Uh,
• 32:01
  there's this market in
• 32:03
  Florida
• 32:03
  where this guy,
• 32:04
  uh,
• 32:04
  James Fishback,
• 32:05
  he's one of the candidates for governor,
• 32:07
  is,
• 32:08
  he's been polling around 9 or 10%,
• 32:10
  uh,
• 32:10
  for a while,
• 32:11
  and he's kinda,
• 32:12
  you know,
• 32:12
  he's got,
• 32:13
  uh,
• 32:14
  uh,
• 32:14
  he's got an audience,
• 32:15
  he's got,
• 32:15
  he's gonna get some votes.
• 32:16
  Uh,
• 32:17
  however,
• 32:17
  the market for him is at like 44% to just get 5% or 1% of the vote.
• 32:23
  Why is this so low?
• 32:24
  I'm thinking about putting my money in.
• 32:26
  We caught that pretty early and uh and talked to
• 32:29
  a couple of the people who were looking at that position
• 32:31
  because there is a legal challenge to whether he's
• 32:34
  eligible to be on the ballot at all.
• 32:36
  So there's a good chance that he basically gets 0% despite the fact that
• 32:39
  he's getting 10% of the polls because none of the votes are gonna count,
• 32:42
  right?
• 32:44
  I,
• 32:44
  that type of discussion is gonna happen a lot,
• 32:46
  uh,
• 32:46
  behind the scenes on PredictableShow.com in the paid
• 32:49
  conversation because we're gonna be able to dive deeply
• 32:52
  into more of your specific things.
• 32:53
  And we'll have
• 32:54
  a team,
• 32:55
  we have like a concierge,
• 32:56
  uh,
• 32:56
  person who's going to be looking at this
• 32:58
  and able to kind of bring these to my attention,
• 33:00
  uh,
• 33:01
  when they are,
• 33:02
  uh,
• 33:02
  you know,
• 33:03
  stuff,
• 33:03
  stuff that I can,
• 33:04
  I can,
• 33:04
  uh,
• 33:05
  you know,
• 33:05
  give perspective to.
• 33:06
  Um,
• 33:07
  I just like talking to you guys about this stuff,
• 33:08
  and that's where this is gonna be.
• 33:10
  Um,
• 33:11
  it's still gonna exist as well as part of the free tier,
• 33:13
  but there's gonna be additional conversation happening
• 33:15
  back there.
• 33:16
  You know,
• 33:16
  the,
• 33:16
  the free tier,
• 33:16
  I like to talk more general things that are gonna help lots and lots of people.
• 33:20
  The paid tier can be more of,
• 33:21
  uh,
• 33:21
  of a situation where we're talking more directly
• 33:23
  about your positions and where you are
• 33:26
  on these markets.
• 33:27
  Uh,
• 33:27
  so,
• 33:28
  if you want that,
• 33:29
  uh,
• 33:29
  that's gonna be important.
• 33:30
  You're also gonna get access to my picks early.
• 33:33
  Uh,
• 33:33
  not,
• 33:33
  but,
• 33:33
  you know,
• 33:34
  a lot of times before I even talk about them on the air,
• 33:36
  but also a place,
• 33:37
  a central place where you'll be able to see them.
• 33:39
  And if you want to jump in,
• 33:40
  maybe it'll just give you a,
• 33:41
  a good idea,
• 33:42
  uh,
• 33:42
  uh,
• 33:43
  of a market that,
• 33:43
  oh gosh,
• 33:44
  you know,
• 33:44
  Stew's there.
• 33:45
  I may or may not agree with that,
• 33:46
  but I'm gonna go over here,
• 33:48
  or maybe I'll try to put it in Stu's face and go the opposite direction.
• 33:50
  That's fine too.
• 33:51
  You can be the opposite side of my trades,
• 33:53
  but you'll get to see where they are
• 33:54
  when they're happening
• 33:55
  as part of that as well.
• 33:57
  Um,
• 33:57
  the other Part is
• 33:59
  learning about prediction markets.
• 34:00
  Um,
• 34:01
  you know,
• 34:01
  I've been doing this for a long time,
• 34:03
  uh,
• 34:03
  over a decade now,
• 34:04
  uh,
• 34:04
  on prediction markets.
• 34:05
  I,
• 34:05
  I've kind of seen a little bit of everything
• 34:08
  over the years,
• 34:09
  especially when it comes to elections.
• 34:11
  So if you're someone who's just starting out,
• 34:12
  just saying,
• 34:13
  hey,
• 34:13
  I,
• 34:13
  you know,
• 34:13
  I wanna learn about this,
• 34:14
  uh,
• 34:15
  we're gonna have additional tools for you to learn about that,
• 34:17
  answering your specific questions as well,
• 34:19
  uh,
• 34:20
  behind the paywall in that live chat conversation.
• 34:23
  Um,
• 34:23
  we are going to have a community that's being built,
• 34:26
  exclusive access to that community comes with part of the page tier
• 34:29
  as you go through some of these markets.
• 34:30
  I think you're gonna wind up,
• 34:31
  and I've seen this already with some of the people,
• 34:33
  uh,
• 34:34
  who are getting on board with this,
• 34:35
  but also people just in our normal comments.
• 34:38
  There's a lot of really smart people in this audience.
• 34:39
  And a lot of times they point out things that I haven't even thought about,
• 34:42
  markets I haven't even seen yet.
• 34:43
  It's a great place to go
• 34:45
  where people can discuss things.
• 34:47
  One of,
• 34:48
  one of the things that we're seeing in prediction markets now.
• 34:51
  And this is a newer development because of
• 34:53
  the explosion in these markets
• 34:55
  is back in the day,
• 34:56
  people really were,
• 34:57
  were willing to share information a lot.
• 34:59
  Um,
• 35:00
  you'd see these huge traders.
• 35:01
  We're gonna be talking to a huge trader tomorrow,
• 35:03
  guy's made over a million dollars on prediction markets.
• 35:06
  Uh,
• 35:06
  Scotty Alicious is gonna be with us,
• 35:08
  uh,
• 35:08
  tomorrow.
• 35:08
  I'm really excited to talk to him.
• 35:09
  He's a really a fascinating guy.
• 35:12
  Uh,
• 35:12
  we're gonna be talking to him on tomorrow's show.
• 35:14
  But people used to kind of just kind of tweet their positions and say,
• 35:17
  hey,
• 35:17
  this is what I'm doing and this is where I'm going.
• 35:19
  A lot of that's dried up because of the fact now we have unlimited markets.
• 35:23
  For a long time,
• 35:23
  you were kind of capped at $850
• 35:26
  per contract,
• 35:27
  so people were like,
• 35:28
  they get the $850 in,
• 35:29
  then they start talking about it.
• 35:30
  Um,
• 35:31
  where a lot of that has moved is to sort of smaller private communities of investors.
• 35:36
  Um,
• 35:36
  a lot of it's on Discord,
• 35:38
  there's a bunch of different places where that is.
• 35:40
  Uh,
• 35:40
  you know,
• 35:40
  my goal is for this to kind of develop into that type
• 35:43
  of thing where really smart people are talking about what they're doing,
• 35:46
  what they're trading,
• 35:46
  once,
• 35:47
  you know,
• 35:47
  they get into their positions and they want to talk about this and
• 35:50
  have those open
• 35:51
  conversations.
• 35:52
  Those,
• 35:52
  those conversations are happening
• 35:54
  on the internet right now.
• 35:55
  A lot of them are hidden,
• 35:56
  um,
• 35:56
  you know,
• 35:56
  and I thought this would be a good opportunity to,
• 35:59
  to kind of create our own version of it.
• 36:00
  So,
• 36:01
  that,
• 36:01
  that,
• 36:02
  that the community will be there as well.
• 36:04
  And I will also say,
• 36:05
  you know,
• 36:05
  a lot,
• 36:05
  uh,
• 36:05
  I know I have a bunch of subscriptions on like Patreon and Substack of,
• 36:10
  of people and shows that I just really like and get a lot out of.
• 36:13
  And,
• 36:13
  um,
• 36:14
  frankly,
• 36:14
  uh,
• 36:15
  you know,
• 36:15
  I,
• 36:15
  I welcome you if that's you as well.
• 36:17
  If you've been with me for a long time,
• 36:19
  going back years and years and years and years from shows from,
• 36:21
  from the Glenn Beck Program to Studios America
• 36:24
  to Wonderful World of Stu,
• 36:25
  Stu and Dave,
• 36:26
  Pat and Stu,
• 36:27
  all the shows that we've done,
• 36:28
  uh,
• 36:28
  and maybe you've watched over the years,
• 36:30
  um.
• 36:31
  I know a lot of you are here and,
• 36:33
  and I can't tell you how much that means to me.
• 36:34
  Uh,
• 36:35
  I talked to a lot of people who are like,
• 36:37
  you know,
• 36:37
  I really don't know anything about prediction markets.
• 36:40
  I don't really care about investing in prediction markets.
• 36:43
  I,
• 36:43
  you know,
• 36:43
  I just appreciate the show.
• 36:44
  I like the election information you have.
• 36:46
  I like to have a laugh from time to time,
• 36:48
  um.
• 36:50
  We would love for you to join as well.
• 36:51
  I think you're gonna,
• 36:52
  there's gonna be a lot of,
• 36:53
  uh,
• 36:54
  additional streams,
• 36:55
  things that are for subscribers only that I think
• 36:57
  you're gonna get a lot of value at even if
• 36:58
  you're just a fan of the show and just like
• 37:00
  watching it and don't really care about prediction markets.
• 37:02
  You don't have to be some big trader for this to be valuable to you.
• 37:06
  Um,
• 37:07
  but I know I like just supporting the shows that I like,
• 37:09
  even though sometimes I,
• 37:10
  I,
• 37:11
  I just joined.
• 37:12
  Uh,
• 37:12
  a subscription to a show
• 37:14
  where they like release the show a day later on YouTube,
• 37:17
  and I don't watch it in that day,
• 37:19
  frankly.
• 37:19
  I,
• 37:20
  I could just get it for free,
• 37:21
  but I just love this guy.
• 37:23
  I love the work that he does.
• 37:24
  He makes me laugh a lot and so I just,
• 37:26
  you know,
• 37:27
  I'm,
• 37:27
  I'm fine subscribing.
• 37:29
  If that's you,
• 37:30
  I can't tell you that even more than,
• 37:31
  uh,
• 37:32
  than just some trading insight.
• 37:33
  I love that you're here and,
• 37:34
  and you're joining us as well.
• 37:36
  So there's a lot of features that we're gonna be adding.
• 37:38
  Uh,
• 37:39
  over time.
• 37:39
  I don't wanna oversell it and,
• 37:40
  and promise you anything that we can't deliver immediately.
• 37:43
  Uh,
• 37:43
  but these are the things we're gonna be starting with and
• 37:44
  we're gonna be adding a lot of things as well.
• 37:46
  Different tools,
• 37:47
  different interviews,
• 37:47
  behind the scenes stuff,
• 37:48
  all sorts of stuff
• 37:49
  that I think you're gonna get a lot out of.
• 37:51
  So,
• 37:51
  if this sounds like something that's interesting to you,
• 37:53
  we'd We'd love to have you in on the ground floor.
• 37:56
  Join us
• 37:57
  at predictableshow.com.
• 37:59
  There's the free tier,
• 38:00
  it exists.
• 38:00
  You get all the stuff that you've been getting anyway.
• 38:02
  There's an advanced tier here as well,
• 38:04
  where you can jump in and get a bunch of different,
• 38:06
  uh,
• 38:06
  um,
• 38:07
  uh,
• 38:07
  features.
• 38:07
  If you just go to predictableShow.com.
• 38:09
  And you click on the upgrade or subscribe button there,
• 38:12
  you will get
• 38:13
  uh an outline
• 38:14
  of everything that we've been talking about here.
• 38:16
  You can see the features list,
• 38:18
  see if it's for you.
• 38:18
  Try it out for a month,
• 38:19
  see if it's any,
• 38:20
  if it's cool.
• 38:20
  Try out the,
• 38:21
  the,
• 38:21
  the live stream for free,
• 38:23
  uh,
• 38:23
  on Substack here for the next,
• 38:24
  I think,
• 38:24
  month or so.
• 38:25
  They're gonna do it for a month just so people can kind of get used to it
• 38:28
  and try it.
• 38:29
  But I think you're really gonna like this,
• 38:30
  uh,
• 38:30
  and I think it's gonna be something that's gonna be value to valuable to you
• 38:34
  if you just like the show,
• 38:35
  but also specifically,
• 38:36
  If you're,
• 38:36
  if you're looking to actually trade these markets
• 38:38
  and make money.
• 38:39
  As I mentioned before,
• 38:40
  we've done very,
• 38:40
  very well so far
• 38:42
  in this election season,
• 38:43
  and I think that's gonna continue as we go into November.
• 38:46
  There are huge opportunities in the next 99 days.
• 38:48
  I want you to be there to take advantage of them with me.
• 38:51
  So join me
• 38:52
  at predictableShow.com,
• 38:53
  at predictableShow.com.
• 38:55
  Join us there,
• 38:56
  be part of the ground floor.
• 38:58
  Join us and uh I think we're gonna have a,
• 39:00
  a really fun community and a heck of a run.
• 39:03
  Uh,
• 39:03
  for the next 100 days.
• 39:04
  It's gonna be a roller coaster,
• 39:06
  so we might as well
• 39:07
  hopefully
• 39:08
  profit off of it and make a very crazy world a little bit more
• 39:13
  predictable.
• 39:13
  Back in a second.
• 39:23
  OK.
• 39:23
  Welcome back to Predictable with Stu.
• 39:26
  By the way,
• 39:27
  go to the YouTube page,
• 39:27
  subscribe,
• 39:28
  you don't have to go to the YouTube page,
• 39:31
  uh,
• 39:31
  but I would love for you to do it
• 39:32
  because the algorithm robots hate us.
• 39:34
  So,
• 39:35
  you know,
• 39:35
  what are you gonna do?
• 39:36
  YouTube.com/atpredictableshow,
• 39:38
  uh,
• 39:38
  click follow,
• 39:39
  click like on the video if you happen to be watching it there.
• 39:41
  We really appreciate it.
• 39:42
  OK,
• 39:42
  um,
• 39:43
  Uh,
• 39:43
  you can email us at questions at predictableshow.com with any of your thoughts.
• 39:49
  We always appreciate that.
• 39:49
  You can drop them in the comments on social media as well.
• 39:52
  Um,
• 39:53
  this is,
• 39:53
  uh,
• 39:53
  from Nashville.
• 39:56
  I like that name,
• 39:56
  Nashvilleain.
• 39:57
  Uh,
• 39:57
  I need a very basic
• 39:59
  introduction,
• 40:00
  how to course in prediction markets.
• 40:01
  I've listened to a lot of info from Stu,
• 40:03
  but there are basics I'm still missing.
• 40:05
  This is probably the 2nd most common thing that we get.
• 40:08
  You get,
• 40:08
  uh,
• 40:08
  you know,
• 40:09
  hey,
• 40:09
  I wanna hear,
• 40:09
  I wanna see your positions,
• 40:10
  and probably number 1,
• 40:12
  and that's,
• 40:12
  it sounds a little bit uh more creepy than it is.
• 40:14
  It's just people asking for where I'm investing,
• 40:16
  so don't get any weird ideas.
• 40:17
  But
• 40:18
  the second one is probably,
• 40:19
  hey,
• 40:20
  uh,
• 40:20
  like,
• 40:21
  I,
• 40:21
  I'm starting this from scratch.
• 40:22
  Like I know politics.
• 40:23
  You know,
• 40:24
  I know the news,
• 40:25
  but I don't know prediction markets at all.
• 40:26
  Where do I get the basics?
• 40:28
  So I just saw the first version of the um predictable 101 series that we're doing.
• 40:33
  By the way,
• 40:33
  this will be free.
• 40:34
  Uh,
• 40:34
  this is not gonna be behind the paid tier.
• 40:36
  This will be free for,
• 40:37
  for,
• 40:37
  for you.
• 40:37
  I want everyone to be able to see this so they can understand it.
• 40:40
  We're gonna go through
• 40:40
  every little aspect,
• 40:42
  every little step of the way
• 40:44
  as we go through how to get signed up,
• 40:46
  uh,
• 40:46
  what these things actually are,
• 40:47
  how,
• 40:48
  what the buy-sell thing means,
• 40:49
  what is the order book,
• 40:50
  all the things
• 40:51
  to kind of get you started.
• 40:52
  That will be coming here.
• 40:53
  I mean,
• 40:54
  I've already seen one of them pretty much fully produced.
• 40:56
  I know they're in the middle of doing them.
• 40:58
  I don't wanna just release one at a time,
• 41:00
  I don't think.
• 41:01
  I don't know.
• 41:01
  Maybe I'll be convinced to do that.
• 41:02
  My thought was to kind of do like maybe 8 of them
• 41:05
  and have them all ready to go all at once so you can kind of see them in order,
• 41:08
  but we need to get going on them because we're only 99 days left.
• 41:10
  So we'll work on that,
• 41:11
  uh,
• 41:12
  pretty soon.
• 41:12
  Let's go from uh,
• 41:13
  a very basic,
• 41:14
  uh,
• 41:14
  position,
• 41:14
  which by the way,
• 41:15
  is fine.
• 41:15
  You're still very early
• 41:16
  on prediction markets.
• 41:18
  You're,
• 41:18
  you're not too late.
• 41:19
  You're not,
• 41:20
  everyone doesn't know this and you don't.
• 41:22
  Uh,
• 41:22
  you are fine if you're just starting out,
• 41:24
  and we will get,
• 41:25
  have more for you here coming up very,
• 41:27
  very soon.
• 41:27
  We also have a kind of a written thing that we're gonna release to you guys,
• 41:30
  uh,
• 41:30
  soon as well,
• 41:31
  uh,
• 41:31
  kind of giving you the,
• 41:32
  the basics,
• 41:33
  the startup stuff before the videos come.
• 41:35
  Um,
• 41:35
  uh,
• 41:35
  Steve Kidder asked this question,
• 41:36
  a very kind of an advanced trading theory,
• 41:39
  uh,
• 41:39
  strategy which I really,
• 41:40
  really like.
• 41:41
  So he's talking about the Michigan primary.
• 41:42
  There's a debate tonight on that.
• 41:44
  Uh,
• 41:44
  if you want to check that out,
• 41:45
  but he says,
• 41:45
  maybe take El Sayed yes
• 41:47
  to win the Michigan primary
• 41:49
  and bet no on him in the general election,
• 41:52
  uh,
• 41:52
  in the person market.
• 41:53
  If you size it so that he,
• 41:54
  if he loses the primary,
• 41:56
  you lose nothing because the,
• 41:58
  uh,
• 41:58
  person bet resolves no immediately.
• 42:01
  If he wins,
• 42:02
  you end up with a def.
• 42:04
  decent profit and
• 42:05
  him as a no against Johnson at a very good level,
• 42:09
  which is a leg two of the trade.
• 42:10
  This is a pretty complicated strategy,
• 42:12
  honestly,
• 42:13
  but I do really like it.
• 42:14
  In fact,
• 42:14
  I'm gonna put that aside,
• 42:15
  just kinda
• 42:16
  work my way through that,
• 42:17
  work some numbers on that
• 42:18
  a little bit later.
• 42:19
  If that's something I wind up taking up,
• 42:20
  I'll tell you about it at the predictableshow.com
• 42:23
  in the paid tier,
• 42:24
  but,
• 42:25
  uh,
• 42:25
  I think that's an interesting,
• 42:26
  uh,
• 42:26
  an interesting one,
• 42:27
  frankly,
• 42:28
  uh,
• 42:29
  because
• 42:30
  El Sayed
• 42:31
  is a really risky play in that general election.
• 42:33
  If you are in Michigan and you are a Democrat,
• 42:35
  and you just want control of the Senate,
• 42:37
  he's gotta make you really nervous.
• 42:39
  Michigan is not New York City.
• 42:41
  This is not AOC's district.
• 42:43
  This is not Chevalier
• 42:44
  all over again.
• 42:45
  This is a person who believes the same thing,
• 42:48
  trying to do a mom Donni,
• 42:50
  but a statewide Midwest
• 42:53
  mom Donnie.
• 42:55
  Does that work?
• 42:56
  I don't know.
• 42:57
  You could see the Democratic establishment does not think it's gonna work.
• 42:59
  And that's why everyone's out of the woodwork talking about how
• 43:01
  much they love Haley Stevens and her weird cartoon voice.
• 43:04
  So,
• 43:05
  uh,
• 43:05
  that's what we have there.
• 43:05
  Ethan writes in,
• 43:06
  can we get a mention market on how many
• 43:08
  times Stu is going to mention
• 43:10
  refining his approach on mention markets?
• 43:13
  Uh,
• 43:13
  Stu,
• 43:13
  you're the best.
• 43:14
  I,
• 43:14
  I appreciate that.
• 43:15
  I do.
• 43:16
  I've mentioned,
• 43:17
  I've mentioned,
• 43:18
  uh,
• 43:18
  mentioned this multiple times
• 43:20
  over at PredictableShow.com and that like,
• 43:22
  I'm not very good at mention markets.
• 43:23
  I went through,
• 43:24
  by the way,
• 43:24
  when I was doing those numbers on,
• 43:26
  on elections that we talked about earlier,
• 43:28
  I went through and looked at my,
• 43:30
  uh,
• 43:30
  mention market situation.
• 43:31
  I was like,
• 43:32
  exactly flat.
• 43:33
  Like I had made and lost the exact amount.
• 43:35
  I,
• 43:35
  I,
• 43:36
  I had $0 in profit basically on,
• 43:38
  uh,
• 43:38
  it was maybe a few,
• 43:39
  but very low
• 43:40
  on mention markets because basically,
• 43:42
  every time I have a good one,
• 43:43
  I have a bad one.
• 43:44
  So I'm not great at those yet.
• 43:45
  I'm being honest with you.
• 43:46
  I,
• 43:46
  I'm learning as well and so when I have an idea of how I'm refining that process,
• 43:50
  I do
• 43:51
  try to uh post a note or a tweet or something about it
• 43:53
  at predictableshow.com.
• 43:55
  S Wriggle 65 writes,
• 43:57
  people,
• 43:57
  you are allowed to do some of your Your own homework.
• 43:59
  You can't expect Stu to do everything,
• 44:01
  especially for no charge.
• 44:02
  Be thankful
• 44:03
  and do some of your own due diligence.
• 44:05
  Well,
• 44:05
  first,
• 44:05
  I'd like to thank my mom,
• 44:07
  uh,
• 44:07
  for posting that.
• 44:08
  Uh,
• 44:08
  I appreciate it.
• 44:09
  Thank you,
• 44:09
  S Riggle 65.
• 44:10
  I mean,
• 44:11
  due diligence,
• 44:11
  you should,
• 44:12
  by the way,
• 44:12
  even if you have all of my picks,
• 44:14
  make sure you do your own due diligence.
• 44:16
  It's really,
• 44:16
  really important.
• 44:17
  You know,
• 44:18
  because,
• 44:18
  you know,
• 44:18
  look,
• 44:18
  I've done well on these,
• 44:19
  especially the election markets over the years,
• 44:21
  but like,
• 44:21
  you never know,
• 44:22
  uh,
• 44:22
  right?
• 44:22
  Like I,
• 44:23
  I,
• 44:23
  I certainly do miss some.
• 44:25
  Uh,
• 44:25
  and,
• 44:25
  you know,
• 44:25
  if that happens to be the one you jump on board with,
• 44:27
  that's gonna suck,
• 44:28
  right?
• 44:28
  So,
• 44:29
  it's always important,
• 44:30
  these are your decisions,
• 44:31
  this is your money,
• 44:33
  you need to,
• 44:33
  to,
• 44:34
  to manage it,
• 44:34
  but
• 44:35
  when it comes down to being able to talk these things through,
• 44:37
  I feel like that's how,
• 44:39
  that's how I learned,
• 44:40
  right?
• 44:40
  I learned by burning myself over and over and over and over
• 44:43
  again and screwing up over and over and over and over again,
• 44:46
  and going down the wrong road over and over again until
• 44:48
  I came down to a window of trades that I really,
• 44:50
  really like.
• 44:51
  Um,
• 44:52
  in fact,
• 44:52
  I was just,
• 44:53
  uh,
• 44:53
  I was prepping for this interview tomorrow with Scottylicious,
• 44:55
  and
• 44:56
  he mentions one of the key
• 44:59
  ranges of trades that I really like my favorite trades.
• 45:02
  He's saying these are my favorites.
• 45:03
  These are my favorites too.
• 45:04
  He has the exact same
• 45:06
  target group.
• 45:07
  He's just made a lot more money
• 45:09
  than I have,
• 45:10
  and that's not fair.
• 45:12
  He should give,
• 45:12
  you know what?
• 45:13
  Fairness states he should give me half of his winnings.
• 45:16
  Uh,
• 45:17
  that is just,
• 45:17
  uh,
• 45:20
  I'll have to hit him up on that tomorrow,
• 45:21
  but he's gonna be great.
• 45:22
  Uh,
• 45:22
  in fact,
• 45:23
  he's gonna give you insight that I can't even provide.
• 45:25
  This guy's been,
• 45:25
  I mean,
• 45:26
  he's been,
• 45:26
  he's made way more money than I have in way less time.
• 45:29
  He's really,
• 45:30
  really smart.
• 45:31
  He knows these markets,
• 45:33
  uh,
• 45:33
  better than almost
• 45:34
  anybody.
• 45:35
  I don't know who,
• 45:35
  who knows him better than Scottylicious.
• 45:37
  Uh,
• 45:37
  that's his,
• 45:38
  uh,
• 45:38
  handle.
• 45:38
  He'll be joining me tomorrow on the show.
• 45:40
  This is an interview you're not gonna wanna miss.
• 45:42
  If you,
• 45:43
  number one,
• 45:44
  he's just got crazy stories.
• 45:46
  Some of the,
• 45:47
  some of the risk this guy has taken on markets,
• 45:49
  that it makes me sweat even thinking about it.
• 45:52
  I wanna talk to you about,
• 45:53
  uh,
• 45:53
  not,
• 45:53
  not only
• 45:54
  the positions He's taken in the past and how he's thought that stuff through,
• 45:57
  how he's,
• 45:57
  he's actually kind of come up with
• 45:59
  different ways to understand,
• 46:01
  you know,
• 46:02
  foreign elections and,
• 46:03
  and dive deep there.
• 46:04
  But then in addition to that,
• 46:05
  where is he right now?
• 46:06
  Where's his money at this moment?
• 46:08
  We'll go through his positions and where he is right now on stuff tomorrow
• 46:12
  on the program.
• 46:13
  I hope you had a,
• 46:13
  a,
• 46:14
  a,
• 46:14
  a great,
• 46:14
  uh,
• 46:15
  you're having a great,
• 46:15
  uh,
• 46:16
  year so far and a great summer
• 46:18
  because we're turning into business time.
• 46:20
  It's business time,
• 46:21
  very,
• 46:21
  very soon
• 46:22
  here,
• 46:23
  uh,
• 46:23
  in the country
• 46:24
  and on prediction markets,
• 46:26
  we've got 100 days or less.
• 46:27
  We're at 99 or 98,
• 46:29
  depending on who you believe,
• 46:30
  uh,
• 46:30
  the calendar can lie.
• 46:32
  Uh,
• 46:32
  but we're very,
• 46:32
  very close.
• 46:33
  So join us for this run.
• 46:35
  It's gonna be a very,
• 46:36
  very interesting next few months.
• 46:38
  Tell people about it.
• 46:39
  Follow us at predictableshw.com and join us on
• 46:41
  the page here if it's something that's gonna,
• 46:42
  you think it's only if it's,
• 46:44
  you know,
• 46:44
  it's something that's gonna give you value,
• 46:46
  uh,
• 46:46
  we would love to have you there as well.
• 46:47
  Thanks so much for joining us and we'll see you next time.